Revenue and Capital Budget Monitoring Overview Report
Renfrewshire Council · 20 November 2025
Back to Finance, Resources and Customer Services Policy Board — 20 November 2025 and its agenda
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OFFICIAL ___________________________________________________________________ To: Finance, Resources and Customer Services Policy Board On: 20 November 2025 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Finance and Resources ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Revenue and Capital Budget Monitoring – Council Overview as at 19 September 2025 __________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary of Financial Position 1.1 At the close of reporting Period 6 on 19 September 2025, the projected revenue outturn position at 31 March 2026 for Council services is an overspend position of £0.859m (0.2%) against the revised budget for the year. Adult Services (HSCP) is projecting an overspend of £5.482m (4.9%), resulting in a combined projected overspend of £6.341m (1.1%). 1.2 The projected capital outturn at 31 March 2026 all services is a break-even position. 1.3 This is split between General Fund Services and the Housing Revenue Account (HRA) in the table below, with further analysis provided in the Appendices. Table 1 Revised Annual Budget £000 Projected Outturn £000 Budget Variance (Adv)/Fav £000 Planned Use of Reserves £000 Revenue General Fund Services (Council) 456.434 457.293 (0.859) (0.445) Adult Services (HSCP) 111.791 117.273 (5.482) (5.969) Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 0 0 0 0 Total 568.225 574.566 (6.341) (6.414) Capital Variance % General Fund Services 118.774 118.774 0 0.0% Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 46.546 46.546 0 0.0% Total 165.320 165.320 0 0.0%
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OFFICIAL 2. Recommendations 2.1 Members are requested to: a) Note the projected Revenue outturn overspend position of £6.341m; b) Note the projected Capital outturn break-even position; and c) Note the prudential indicators detailed in section 7 of the report. _________________________________________________________ 3. Revenue Budget Projection – overspend of £6.341m by 31 March 2026 3.1 The projected overspend of £6.341m across all services includes £5.482m for Adult Services (HSCP), leaving a forecast overspend of £0.859m for Council services. 3.2 The tables in Appendix 1 present the projected year-end position for all services, by both subjective analysis (what the budget is spent on) and objective analysis (which division is spending the budget). Significant variances affecting the projected position are analysed further below. 3.3 The projected outturn is based on information currently available, and assumptions made by service budget holders. Any changes to these projections will be detailed in future reports to this board. 4. Objective Analysis – Significant Variances 4.1 Education & Children’s Services - £0.154m overspend This projected overspend includes £1.243m within Early Learning & Childcare in relation to payments to partner providers, and in Children & Families in relation to Direct Payments and Section 22 payments, which are demand-driven. Transport costs are also projected to overspend by £0.807m mainly due to SPT contracts for mainstream school transport being higher than the available budget, predominately caused by price inflation. There are also pressures within Premises Costs, due to increased janitorial costs across the school estate. These overspends are partly offset by underspends projected in: Third Party Payments mainly due to the number of fostering and kinship arrangements being less than previously predicted; in teaching and non-teaching costs within Early Learning & Childcare and Additional Support for Learning; and a projected over-recovery of income (£0.647m) in Early Learning & Childcare relating to cross-boundary charges, and in Children & Families across a number of headings.
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OFFICIAL 4.2 Infrastructure, Land & Environment - £0.252m overspend The projected overspend arises from two main areas of the service, being Waste Services and Social Transport. Within Refuse Collection employee costs are impacting the overspend, with contract inflation in Waste Disposal also creating pressures. In Social Transport, the pressure arises from the need to hire agency staff to cover for long-term sickness absence and vacancies. The service is actively working with HR to effectively manage this within the team. 4.3 Finance, Resources & Customer Services - £0.513m overspend The anticipated overspend is mainly driven by Public Building Repairs (£0.486m), despite Council investing further into this budget in 2025/26, and still owing to the continued inflationary and cost pressures that have been experienced by the service over the last few financial years. The position has improved since last year and continues to be closely monitored, with work ongoing to understand the underlying cost drivers. 4.4 Adult Services - £5.482m overspend The overspend is mainly due to external care at home packages for both Older People and those with Physical or Sensory Difficulties. This results from increased acuity of patients with more complex needs discharged from hospital, meaning more intensive Care at Home packages are required to support people to remain in their own homes. There is also a forecast overspend within Learning Difficulties in relation to Adult Care Placements driven by increases in client needs, and therefore service demand. 4.5 Housing Revenue Account (HRA) - break even The HRA is projected to break-even overall in 2025/26. Demand for repairs to HRA premises, including void properties, is still currently expected to be managed within the revised budget levels. 5. Capital Budget Projection – Housing Services Programme 5.1 The HRA Capital Investment Programme 2025/26 to 2029/30 was approved by the Council on 27 February 2025. For 2025/26, the approved capital budget totalled £52.836m. The current revised programme totals £46.546m, a decrease of £6.290m, linked to projects reprofiled from 2025/26 into 2026/27 within improvements to existing properties, regeneration and council house new build, to reflect later than originally anticipated start dates.
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OFFICIAL 5.2 Capital expenditure to 19 September 2025 amounted to £8.728m, representing 19% of available resources, compared to 33% for the same period in 2024/25. This is as a result of planned council house new build not anticipated to commence until later in the financial year. 5.3 15% of expected capital income has been received to date, compared to 16% for the equivalent period in 2024/25. This indicator is dependent on the timing of asset disposals, and on the receipt of grants. 5.4 The projected outturn position, after budget changes, is for the Housing Services Programme to break even (see Appendix 2). However, inflationary impacts of delays to work and related cost estimates are still ongoing and may result in this forecast being revised at a future date. 6. Capital Monitoring: Non-Housing Services Programme 6.1 The General Services Capital Investment Programme 2025/26 to 2029/30 was approved by Council on 27 February 2025. For 2025/26, the approved capital budget totalled £118.199m. The current revised programme totals £118.774m (an increase of £0.575m) resulting mainly from the net effect of: • budget increases of £4.500m, mainly as result of additional funding approved at the September Council meeting for Paisley Museum, and grant funded from Scottish government (£0.396m); and • budget carried forward from 2025/26 into 2026/27 of (£4.000m); 6.2 Capital expenditure to 19 September 2025 totals £43.794m, representing 37% of the available resources, compared to 28% for the equivalent period in 2024/25. 6.3 Capital income totalling £23.901m has been received to 19 September 2025. This represents 61% of the total anticipated income, compared to 31% for the equivalent period in 2024/25. This is due to receiving City Deal Grant of £13.7m in 2025/26. 6.4 The projected outturn position after these budget changes is to break even (see Appendix 2). However, the full impact of inflation on capital costs on each project is not yet determined, with increased costs through inflation and compliance expected to increase the risk of overspends across the capital programme.
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OFFICIAL 7. Capital Overview: Prudential Indicators 7.1 The Council is required to set prudential indicators to ensure that its capital investment plans are affordable, proportionate, prudent and sustainable. The current prudential indicators were approved, alongside the housing and non- housing capital investment programmes, by Council on 27 February 2025. 7.2 The CIPFA Prudential Code 2021 recommends that from 2024/25 a regular update is provided to members noting the current forecasts for prudential indicators compared to those approved at the start of the financial year. These are outlined in 7.4 to 7.8 below. 7.3 The Council will be asked to approve updated Prudential Indicators in December 2025 as part of the mid-year progress report. 7.4 Capital Expenditure: The limit on capital expenditure that the Council has set for 2025/26 is shown in the table below. The limit is based on the resources available to fund the capital programmes, split between Housing and Non-Housing Services, but excludes the Public Sector Housing Grant, as this is not considered to be capital spend for the Council. The approved figure for Non-Housing is based on the 1 May 2025 position, and the forecast expenditure is higher owing to the changes outlined at 6.1 above. Approved Plan £m Forecast Expenditure £m Non-Housing 105 118 Housing 61 52 Total 166 170 7.5 Capital Finance Requirement (CFR): The CFR originally planned by the Council for 2025/26 is shown in the table below and is split between Housing and Non-Housing Services. The projected outturn at 31 March 2025 is also shown. Any significant increase in the capital expenditure without planned funding at the point of spend will result in an increase to the CFR. Planned CFR to 31 March 2026 £m Projected CFR to 31 March 2026 £m Non-Housing 524 522 Housing 173 156 Total 697 678
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OFFICIAL The overall decrease in the projected CFR is as a result of the reprofiling of Non-housing expenditure approved by Council on 1 May 2025 and the reprofiling of Housing expenditure referred to in paragraph 5.1. This has been partially offset by increase in the CFR after the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standard 16 (IFRS16) in 2024/25, which had the technical effect of increasing the liabilities recognised of assets held under service concessions and lease arrangements. 7.6 Operational Boundary: This is the focus of day-to-day treasury management activity within the Council and is an estimate of the most likely, but not worst case, scenario in terms of cashflow. Risk analysis and risk management strategies are taken into account, as are plans for capital expenditure, estimates of the CFR and estimates of cashflow requirements for all purposes. It is possible that this boundary could be breached occasionally and this should not be regarded as significant. However, a sustained or regular trend of such would be significant and require investigation and action. Planned Operational Boundary to 31 March 2026 £m Projected Operational Boundary to 31 March 2026 £m Borrowing 602 556 Other Long-Term Liabilities 95 122 Total 697 678 The reduction in borrowing relates to the approved changes to the Non-housing capital plan and reprofiling of the Housing expenditure. The increase in other long-term liabilities is as a result of the adoption of IFRS16 in 2024/25. 7.7 Authorised Limit: This is based on the same assumptions as the Operational Boundary, with additional headroom to ensure sufficient capacity to allow for both planned and exceptional cashflow requirements, without breaching the limit. The reasons for movement are as above. Planned Authorised Limit to 31 March 2026 £m Projected Authorised Limit to 31 March 2026 £m Borrowing 632 583 Other Long-Term Liabilities 95 123 Total 727 706
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OFFICIAL 7.8 Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue: A key measure of affordability is the incremental impact of investment decisions on Council Tax or housing rents. Estimates of the ratio of financing costs to net revenue stream provide an indication of how much of the Council’s revenue budget is committed to the repayment of debt. Approved Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue 2025/26 % Projected Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue 2025/26 % Non-Housing 2.73 2.94 Housing 24.53 24.20 Financing costs include the interest payable with respect to forecast borrowing levels, interest payable on finance leases, interest and investment income, loans fund and finance lease principal repayments and gains/losses on the repurchase or early settlement of borrowing. There is only a marginal change in the projected ratios due to the updated profiling and interest rate outlook. Revenue streams relate either to the amounts received in terms of government grant and local taxpayers for Non-Housing, or to the amounts received from tenants in respect of housing rents for Housing. 8. Private Sector Housing Grant Programme 8.1. The overall budget provision for this programme is included within the revenue budget. However, in order to monitor the performance of the individual programmes, it is included within capital budget monitoring procedures. 8.2. The Council approved expenditure up to £0.833m for 2025/26. The current revised programme totals £1.100m (an increase of £0.267m) which reflects net budget increase approved by the Communities and Housing Policy Board on 13 May 2025. 8.3. The programme is expected to fully spend by 31 March 2026 and will be contained within the overall resources. Implications of the Report 1. Financial The projected budget outturn position for General Fund Services Revenue budget, including HSCP, is an overspend of £6.341m (1.1%) and break even for the HRA Revenue budget. Income and expenditure will continue to be monitored closely for the rest of the financial year and, where necessary, steps will be taken to mitigate any overspends.
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OFFICIAL The projected outturn position for General Fund Services and HRA Capital budgets is a break-even position. The Capital programme will continue to be monitored closely for the rest of the financial year. Any changes to current projections in either Revenue or Capital budgets will be detailed in future reports to this board. 2. HR & Organisational Development While staffing budgets form a significant proportion of the Council’s revenue budgets, there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 3. Community/Council Planning Community Plan Our Renfrewshire is thriving The Council’s revenue and capital spend ensures that its facilities are fit for purpose and safe for the community, to maximise accessibility. Our Renfrewshire is well Our Renfrewshire is fair Our Renfrewshire is safe Council Plan Reshaping our place, our economy and our future The Council’s revenue and capital spend ensures that its facilities are fit for purpose and safe for the community, to maximise accessibility. Building strong, safe and resilient communities Tackling inequality, ensuring opportunities for all Creating a sustainable Renfrewshire for all to enjoy Ongoing revenue and capital budget monitoring is a tool to enable good financial management so that the Council has resources now and in the future for continued service delivery. Working together to improve outcomes 4. Legal There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 5. Property/Assets The capital expenditure noted in this report will result in lifecycle maintenance improvements to existing properties and replacement of ICT, infrastructure, and plant and equipment. 6. Information Technology There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report.
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OFFICIAL 7. Equality & Human Rights While new areas of spend may impact on particular groups, any such impact would be assessed prior to the spend being incurred, therefore there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 8. Health & Safety There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 9. Procurement While Procurement is an important consideration prior to the Council incurring any revenue or capital spend, there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 10. Risk The potential financial risk that the Council will overspend its approved revenue budgets for the year is managed at a Council-wide level by the Chief Executive and Directors. 11. Privacy Impact There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 12. Cosla Policy Position - N/a 13. Children’s Rights - There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 14. Climate Change The Council aims to reduce its carbon and other emissions to net zero by 2030, however there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. ___________________________________________________________________ List of Background Papers • Revenue Budget and Council Tax 2024/25, Council 27 February 2025 • The Capital Investment Programme 2025/26 to 2029/30, Council 27 February 2025
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OFFICIAL • 2025/26 Delegated Health and Social Care Budget, Renfrewshire Integration Joint Board 21 March 2025 ___________________________________________________________________ Author: Alison Burns, Corporate Finance Manager Linsey McGregor, Accountant (Capital)
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Appendix 1 OFFICIAL RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL REVENUE BUDGET MONITORING STATEMENT 2025/26 1 April 2025 to 19 September 2025 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES - OVERVIEW Policy Board - Objective Summary Annual Budget at Period 3 Budget Adjustments Revised Annual Budget at Period 6 Projected Outturn Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable Previous Projected Outturn Variance Movement £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 % £000 £000 Communities and Housing Services 12,841 2,428 15,269 15,269 0 0.0% 0 0 Education and Children's Services 275,236 2,953 278,189 278,343 (154) (0.1%) (970) 816 Infrastructure, Land and Environment 38,817 900 39,717 39,969 (252) (0.6%) (290) 38 Finance, Resources and Customer Services 115,808 (18,336) 97,473 97,986 (513) (0.5%) (683) 170 Adult Services 111,791 0 111,791 117,273 (5,482) (4.9%) (5,924) 442 Planning 778 79 857 842 15 1.8% 22 (7) Economy and Regeneration 3,000 172 3,172 3,150 22 0.7% 18 4 Chief Executive's Service 21,478 279 21,757 21,734 23 0.1% 4 19 GENERAL SERVICES NET EXPENDITURE 579,749 (11,525) 568,225 574,566 (6,341) (1.1%) (7,823) 1,482 Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 NET EXPENDITURE 579,749 (11,525) 568,225 574,566 (6,341) (1.1%) (7,823) 1,482
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Appendix 1 OFFICIAL RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL REVENUE BUDGET MONITORING STATEMENT 2025/26 1 April 2025 to 19 September 2025 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES - OVERVIEW Subjective Summary Annual Budget at Period 3 Budget Adjustments Revised Annual Budget at Period 6 Total Projected Outturn Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable Previous Projected Outturn Variance Movement £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 % £000 £000 Employees 396,188 (3,326) 392,862 389,723 3,139 0.8% 2,351 788 Premises Related 52,024 4,076 56,100 58,155 (2,055) (3.7%) (2,770) 715 Transport Related 18,834 337 19,171 20,072 (901) (4.7%) (1,331) 430 Supplies and Services 102,121 (4,681) 97,440 98,034 (594) (0.6%) (955) 361 Third Party Payments 98,157 (648) 97,509 102,507 (4,998) (5.1%) (5,777) 779 Transfer Payments 101,788 (721) 101,067 102,094 (1,027) (1.0%) (1,186) 159 Support Services 6,105 353 6,458 6,606 (148) (2.3%) (21) (127) Depreciation and Impairment Losses 35,799 1,369 37,168 37,183 (15) 0.0% 0 -15 GROSS EXPENDITURE 811,016 (3,242) 807,775 814,374 (6,599) (0.8%) (9,689) 3,090 Income (231,267) (8,283) (239,550) (239,808) 258 0.1% 1,866 (1,608) NET EXPENDITURE 579,749 (11,525) 568,225 574,566 (6,341) (1.1%) (7,823) 1,482
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Appendix 2 OFFICIAL Prior Years Approved Budget Revised Projected Expenditure Budget Adjustments Budget Outturn Total Approved Projected to 31/03/2025* 2025-26 since previous 2025-26 2025-26 Budget Outurn Board report to 31-Mar-30 to 31-Mar-30 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 EDUCATION & CHILDREN'S SERVICES Education & Children's Services 51,019 57,194 (4,000) 53,194 53,194 0 0% 201,371 201,371 0 0% TOTAL 51,019 57,194 (4,000) 53,194 53,194 0 0% 201,371 201,371 0 0% COMMUNITIES, HOUSING & PLANNING Housing (HRA) 57,731 52,836 (6,290) 46,546 46,546 0 0% 350,163 350,163 0 0% Housing (PSHG) 0 833 267 1,100 1,100 0 0% 4,700 4,700 0 0% TOTAL 57,731 53,669 (6,023) 47,646 47,646 0 0% 354,863 354,863 0 0% INFRASTRUCTURE, LAND & ENVIRONMENT Environment & Infrastructure 4,451 16,650 408 17,058 17,058 0 0% 90,186 90,186 0 0% TOTAL 4,451 16,650 408 17,058 17,058 0 0% 90,186 90,186 0 0% ECONOMY & REGENERATION Economy and Development 98,353 14,683 4,167 18,850 18,850 0 0% 124,087 124,087 0 0% TOTAL 98,353 14,683 4,167 18,850 18,850 0 0% 124,087 124,087 0 0% FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES Corporate Projects 4,404 9,662 0 9,662 9,662 0 0% 33,200 33,200 0 0% TOTAL 4,404 9,662 0 9,662 9,662 0 0% 33,200 33,200 0 0% PLANNING & CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Projects 0 875 0 875 875 0 0% 1,167 1,167 0 0% TOTAL 0 875 0 875 875 0 0% 1,167 1,167 0 0% LEADERSHIP Leisure Services 25,402 3,013 0 3,013 3,013 0 0% 28,805 28,805 0 0% Chief Executives 169,252 16,122 0 16,122 16,122 0 0% 229,198 229,198 0 0% TOTAL 194,654 19,135 0 19,135 19,135 0 0% 258,003 258,003 0 0% TOTAL ALL BOARDS 410,612 171,868 (5,448) 166,420 166,420 0 0.0% 1,062,877 1,062,877 0 0% MADE UP OF: Non-Housing Programme 352,881 118,199 575 118,774 118,774 0 0% 708,014 708,014 0 0% Housing Programme (HRA) 57,731 52,836 (6,290) 46,546 46,546 0 0% 350,163 350,163 0 0% Housing Programme (PSHG) 0 833 267 1,100 1,100 0 0% 4,700 4,700 0 0% PROGRAMME TOTAL 410,612 171,868 (5,448) 166,420 166,420 0 0.0% 1,062,877 1,062,877 0 0% Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL CAPITAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY - NON-HOUSING SERVICES 1st April to 19th September 2025 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES Current Year 2025-26 Full Programme - All years
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Appendix 2 OFFICIAL 2025/26 Housing Non Housing PSHG Total Services Services Programme A. RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO FUND CAPITAL PROGRAMME £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 1. Prudential Borrowing 36,037 57,440 93,477 2a General Capital Grant 12,248 750 12,998 2b. Specific Capital Grant 5,000 2,518 7,518 3. Usable Capital Receipts 575 24,176 24,751 4. Contribution From Current Revenue (CFCR) 4,934 22,392 350 27,676 5 Total Resource Availability 46,546 118,774 1,100 166,420 B. CAPITAL PROGRAMME 6. Resources Available 46,546 118,774 1,100 166,420 7. Current Programme 46,546 100% 118,774 100% 1,100 100% 166,420 100% C. ACTUAL EXPENDITURE VS PROJECTED 8. Resource Availability 46,546 118,774 1,100 166,420 9. Cash Spent at 19 September 2025 8,728 19% 43,794 37% 337 31% 52,859 32% 10. Cash to be Spent by 31 March 2026 37,818 74,980 763 113,561 D. ACTUAL RECEIPTS VS PROJECTED 11. Current Programme (total receipts expected) 5,575 38,942 750 45,267 12. Actual Cash Received at 19 September 2025 824 15% 23,901 61% 400 53% 25,125 56% 13. Receipts to be received by 31 March 2026 4,751 15,041 350 20,142 RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL 2025/26 CAPITAL BUDGETS MONITORING SUMMARY REPORT TO 19TH SEPTEMBER 2025