4. 2026 03 17 Strategic Risk Register 2026-27
North Ayrshire Council · 17 March 2026
Back to Cabinet — 17 March 2026 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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NORTH AYRSHIRE COUNCIL 17 March 2026 Cabinet Title: Strategic Risk Register 2026/27 Purpose: To seek Cabinet approval of the Strategic Risk Register for 2026/27. Recommendation: That Cabinet approves the Council’s Strategic Risk Register for 2026/27. 1. Executive Summary 1.1 The Strategic Risk Register has been reviewed and updated for 2026/27. 1.2 It is recommended that the eight previous risks remain on the Strategic Risk Register (SRR) at their existing risk scores. 2. Background 2.1 North Ayrshire Council is committed to ensuring that it is proactive in identifying and managing the risks impacting on the authority. The Council recognises that a certain amount of risk is inevitable if the organisation is to achieve its objectives. 2.2 The aim of risk management is to reduce the likelihood and/or impact of risk by identifying and controlling risks to the Council. If risk is to be managed appropriately, and Services are aware of these risks, risk management can contribute positively towards the organisation's decision-making processes, making the Council more innovative and effective in its approach to service delivery. 2.3 The most significant risks are identified through the Council's Strategic Risk Register, recognising the challenges facing the Council and demonstrating the arrangements in place to manage these risks. 2.4 The Strategic Risk Register has been reviewed and updated for 2026/27 and is attached at Appendix 1 to this report. For each of the risks detailed within the register a number of components are identified: • Risk proximity factors; • Risk score; • Potential effect on the Council's priorities; • Internal controls currently in place;
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• Assessment of controls; and • Additional actions identified 2.5 To assist in the assessment of each risk, the Council’s agreed risk matrix was used to ensure consistency. This is used to assess the likelihood of occurrence (on a scale from 1 to 5) and the significance of the impact of the risk should it occur (on a scale from 1 to 5). The risk score is the product of likelihood multiplied by impact. Only those risks rated as high or very high (10 or above) will feature on the Strategic Risk Register to ensure a focus on managing the most significant risks. 2.6 All eight risks remain on the Strategic Risk Register at their existing risk scores. 2.7 Very High Risks • Financial Sustainability – this risk reflects the ongoing and increasing financial challenge faced by the Council year on year (risk score 20). • Financial Sustainability of the Health and Social Care Partnership – this reflects the significant ongoing financial challenges faced by the Partnership and the risk these present to the Council (risk score 25). • Inequalities – this highlights the socio-economic inequalities faced in North Ayrshire (risk score 20). • Community Capacity Building and Empowerment – this highlights the challenges associated with the community empowerment act (risk score 20). • Property Asset Risk – This reflects the impact of long-term restricted budgets on the Councils ability to maintain these to a good standard (risk score 20). High Risks • Cyber Security – this reflects the ongoing risk from external cyber-attack which is being faced by all organisations (risk score 16). • Transformation – this reflects the wider risks associated with delivering the current Transformation Programme and developing a pipeline of future initiatives (risk score 12). • Climate Change – this risk has been on the Strategic Risk Register following the declaration by the Council of a Climate Change Emergency during 2019 (risk score 16). 2.8 Council services have identified high level strategic actions within their planning for 2026/27 to help the Council mitigate against its strategic risks. These actions are detailed in summary format in the Risk Management Action Plans following each Risk within Appendix 1. These actions will assist with performance monitoring and reporting on the strategic risks. 2.9 The Council’s Internal Audit Plan 2026/27 is scheduled to be considered by the Audit and Scrutiny Committee on 12 March 2026 and is risk-based with clear links in place between the audit plan and key risks the Council faces.
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Longer-term risks & Horizon Scanning 2.10 The Strategic Risk Register identifies the most significant risks which the Council faces at the present time. 2.11 The Corporate Risk Management Group identifies any new relevant risks though internal reviews and external horizon scanning utilising a number of sources. 3. Proposals 3.1 Cabinet is requested to approve the Strategic Risk Register 2026/27 4. Implications/Socio-economic Duty Financial 4.1 The Council continues to have a robust long- and medium-term financial planning framework. Key strands include development of key transformation themes and the establishment of an Investment Fund that will generate future savings alongside delivery of a number of key Council priorities. Human Resources 4.2 None. Legal 4.3 None. Equality/Socio-economic 4.4 The risk to the Council is that North Ayrshire residents, and in particular certain groups, will experience increasing levels of poverty and its effects. Current control measures fall into two categories - measures to address the root causes of socio-economic inequalities - income through employment or benefits – and mitigation measures to minimise the impacts of poverty. Climate Change and Carbon 4.5 The Council has declared a climate change emergency and has in place an Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change Strategy. Significant work to help mitigate the risk of flooding is included within the Capital Plan. The Council is undertaking an ambitious renewable energy programme. Key Priorities 4.6 A successful risk management framework helps to underpin the delivery of the Council’s strategic priorities in Our Council Plan 2023-2028. Community Wealth Building 4.7 None.
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Islands Communities Impact Assessment (ICIA) 4.8 None. United Nations Rights of the Child (UNCRC) 4.9 None. Consumer Duty 4.10 None. 5. Consultation 5.1 The Strategic Risk Register has been reviewed in consultation the Corporate Risk Management Group and relevant Chief Officers. Mark Boyd Head of Service (Finance) For further information please contact Alex Fitzharris, Team Manager (Risk), on 01294 324515. Background Papers None.
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Appendix 1 - Strategic Risk Report - 2026-27 Risk Code SRR2627_R01 Risk Title Financial Sustainability Latest Update 11-Feb-2026 Risk Owner Mark Boyd Risk Proximity Factors Consequences / Impact Existing Risk Control Measures Likelihood Impact The risk is that the level of funding from Scottish Government to local government falls significantly below the level required to operate services effectively. This will require the Council to take increasingly difficult and challenging decisions. The revised 2026/27 local government settlement represents an increase in core funding of £4.961m compared to last year. This is against a backdrop of significant inflationary cost increases and risks, including the financial projections associated with the HSCP and the risks this presents to the Council. The remaining Budget gap for the Council in 26/27 following the settlement is £11m. This will be addressed as part of the Budget setting on 25 February 2026. The North Ayrshire position is further affected by a reducing overall population demographic and a growing elderly population. This will further impact the Council’s share of funding across the short, medium and long term. Scottish Government funding to support the Council’s capital programme has also not kept pace with rising costs. Set against high inflationary driven construction costs there is a risk that the 10-year capital programme will be unaffordable. This could require projects to be reduced in scale or even ceased. Funding not keeping pace with demand and inflationary cost pressures means that there will be a reduction in some service areas potentially resulting in higher risks for service users. The future delivery of balanced budgets will become increasingly challenging. The capital programme could also be significantly impacted leading to reduced levels of capital investment. Robust monitoring of the Council’s revenue and capital budgets is in place as well as regular reporting of financial performance of the IJB to Cabinet and Audit and Scrutiny. To assist financial planning The Medium and Long- Term Financial Outlook (LTFO) to 2033/34 was approved at Council on 13 December 2023 – this is the cornerstone of the Council's financial planning in the medium to long term. The annual budget process for the General Fund revenue and Capital Programmes and financial performance monitoring process will continue to provide the framework from which control measures will continue in addressing the financial position. This is likely to result in more of a shift in financial resources to the HSCP and a potentially significant level of Council tax increase for 26/27. Delivery of the Council’s Change Programme is also vital in addressing the Budget challenges and this is being progressed by the Council’s Transformation Board, which is chaired by the Chief Executive. The Council will continue to address the financial challenges through a package of measures, including use of reserves, use of statutory powers, savings from the Change programme, sharing services and regional collaboration, the identification of savings, potential cuts to services and the setting of Council tax. 4 5 Status Risk Score Heat Map Change in Score Approach No change Treat Stable 20
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Strategic Risk Action Plan Date Updated 11-Feb-2026 Analysis of Effectiveness of Controls Further Action Required Target Date for Completion Officers Responsible Current Status: RAG Regular financial monitoring of Revenue and Capital Budgets. 11 February 2026: Trending towards underspend position in 25/26, however, this is within the context of a projected overspend position with the HSCP, therefore, additional financial contribution will likely be required in 25/26. 31-Mar-2026 Mark Boyd Maintain Financial Governance Arrangements for IJB. 11 February 2026: Governance arrangements remain in place across the IJB and Council, however, current financial projections will require reductions to services. This continues to be progressed via the Finance Working Group. 31-Mar-2026 Mark Boyd Progress dialogue via COSLA with Scottish Government on a range of areas including fair funding, multi-year settlements, reduction in levels of ring-fenced resources, true costs of SG policy areas, financial flexibilities and a New Deal partnership with SG and local government. 11 February 2026: The recent budget settlement has seen a reduction in the number of conditions and restrictions to funding, however, the main challenge simply relates to the quantum of funding and especially the lack of additional funding to address the pressures in social care. 31-Mar-2026 Mark Boyd Develop the 2026/27 to 2028/29 revenue budget (medium-term financial strategy) and capital programme taking account of all pressures and savings via Directorates and Transformation programme. 11 February 2026: The 2026/27 Budget is due to be presented to Council on the 25 February 2026. 26-Feb-2026 Mark Boyd
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Risk Code SRR2627_R02 Risk Title Inequalities Latest Update 27-Jan-26 Risk Owner Caroline Cameron; Sam Anson; David Hammond Risk Proximity Factors Consequences / Impact Existing Risk Control Measures Likelihood Impact North Ayrshire residents, and in particular certain excluded groups, will experience increasing levels of poverty and its effects, as a result both of the economic situation and further public sector funding challenges. Health inequality is closely linked to poverty, employment and people's earliest experiences as children, and will increase. The population of North Ayrshire is projected to fall over the next 10 years but there will also be a larger proportion of the population considered dependent (not economically active). The impact on specific risk groups is greatest for our children, young people and families, unemployed people and those in in- work poverty and people exposed to the risks of drug and alcohol addiction. Demand for HSCP and Council Services will increase. As reductions in resources increase, early intervention and prevention activities are at risk, thus increasing the potential for an increase in costly crisis interventions. The local economy will be impacted by reduced spending power by economically inactive residents. The Collaboration for Health Equity in Scotland (CHES) is an innovative two-year partnership between Public Health Scotland, the Institute for Health Equity and to improve healthy life expectancy and reduce health inequalities. The CHES programme was officially launched in Saltcoats Townhall in February 2025. This work has resulted in establishing three workstreams which will provide an enhanced focus on the marmot principles below in identified geographic areas: Marmot principle 1 – Give every child the best start in life (Irvine Fullarton / Castlepark / Bourtreehill) Marmot principle 3 – Fair employment and good work (Three Towns, Saltcoats Central / Ardrossan Central / Stevenston Hayocks) Marmot principle 6 – Strengthen the role of ill health prevention (Garnock Valley) The aims of CHES are to answer two fundamental questions: 1) What are the most impactful areas for intervention in Scotland to make meaningful progress in closing inequities in healthy life expectancy, and 2) how can national and local organisations work more effectively to close the gap between policy intent and impact in these areas? One of the key priorities in the HSCPs current strategic plan is ‘Tackling Inequalities’, and over the previous year has continued to deliver actions aimed at reducing inequalities. For example, our social work teams continue to host events during the year at critical times, such as back to school and Christmas, to get children supplies they need and participation in social events. The Money Smart service continues to offer advice and support for financial inclusion, with self-referrals to the Welfare Reform Advice team doubling between 2023 and 2024. A new financial advice strategy has been developed this year and once published will outline plans for further support to offer the community. The team is also engaged in a two-year initiative to implement Welfare Rights services within eleven GP practices throughout North Ayrshire. Since the project's inception, three Income Advisers have secured nearly £4 million in benefits for local patients and residents. The Justice Service Unpaid Work Teams Employability Mentors work with people with convictions that may face stigma or inequality associated with declaring a criminal record, or an unwillingness by some employers to provide those with criminal convictions with job opportunities. The mentors assist service users involved with the Justice system to obtain skills that will enable them to gain employment and training opportunities to support reintegration into the community. The HSCP is currently revising its Strategic Plan where it aims to move towards focusing on health improvement and long-term planning to meet the changing needs of the population within more efficient systems. It outlines 3 Strategic Priorities that aim do address some of the causes of poor health and respond to the inequalities within the population: 1. Supporting the Improvement of Population Health 2. Addressing the Changing Needs of an Ageing Population 3. Tackling the Root Causes of Health and Care Inequality Over the 3-year period following approval of the new approach, the HSCP aims to research and identify whether any changes to service delivery could lead to improved health and care outcomes. The HSCP also developed new Equality Outcomes in 2025, which aims to reduce inequalities when 5 4
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION accessing health and care services for protected characteristics. A set of aims have been developed which include improving support for carers with additional barriers, such as ageing carers or those with disabilities, and improving accessibility for those with cultural or language barriers. Investment in early intervention teams and approaches in Children’s Services to support vulnerable families, including in Child Protection and Whole Family Support. The Council considers reducing inequalities to be at the heart of its work. The Communities & Housing Directorate leads the Community Planning Partnership for the Council, and the CPP’s Local Outcomes Improvement Plan has a central purpose of reducing inequalities. Locality Planning priorities and Community Investment Fund funded initiatives are also focused on a range of inequalities, including poverty, age-related inequalities and digital inequalities. Recent CIF-funded projects have focused on employability, addictions and community food. A recent review of locality planning has refocused activity on addressing inequalities. Communities staff support a range of community led projects which address poverty within their areas, such as the organisations who are part of the NA Fairer Food Network. Sam Anson, Executive Director (Education) and David Hammond, Executive Director (Communities & Housing) led the work of the Child Poverty and Cost of Living Board, chaired by the Council Leader. This work has now been mainstreamed by the Community Planning Partnership (CPP) to ensure greater partner visibility and impact. The work of the Partnership’s Wellbeing Alliance is also increasingly focused on the impact of child poverty and how this can be mitigated. Work to address child poverty and the Cost-of-Living crisis includes a range of employability initiatives to support parents and people with disabilities, each of whom are Scottish Government priority groups. Progress has been made with partners to undertake a review of the Child Poverty & Cost of Living approach, with recommendations being finalised for consideration by the Board. This is supported by the data and Single Shared Assessment projects being developed by the Transformation team, to provide holistic support for residents who need it most. The Child Poverty Early Intervention Fund is being used to address gaps in current planning and provision. Previous funding decisions were made as a consequence of the mini-enquiries to support employability and travel, childcare developments and support for care experienced young people and families. Further allocations are currently being developed and have been approved by the CPP Senior Officers Group. Through the Scottish Government’s Fairer Futures Partnership we have established a Child Poverty Strategy Team, who came into post in January 2025. This team are providing a key oversight role in collectively delivering holistic support, alongside the transition to a wellbeing economy, in reducing child poverty rates in North Ayrshire. The Scottish Government has provided a third year of funding to address inequalities on the islands. This has been used to fund energy support, welfare advice and support, third sector interventions and school activities. The commitment to reducing inequalities is also reflected in the following plans: • The Educational Service Improvement Plan • Connected Communities strategic plans and • Facilities Management plans. Examples of actions to reduce inequalities: • Deployment of Scottish Attainment Challenge funding to reduce the poverty related attainment gap in schools
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION • Use of the Pupil Equity Fund to ensure equity of pupil experience in schools, at the discretion of head teachers • Cost of the School Day actions to reduce, for example, the cost of school uniforms and clothing, food and outings • Support for care experienced young people, both in schools and through youth services • Additional national and local investment in Active Schools to focus on inequalities and equity • The mainstreaming of community buildings as warm spaces and events to mitigate energy use and social isolation • Work to support “New Scots,” in schools, with families and in community settings through language support and capacity building, including women’s groups • LGBT support groups for young people and those over 18 • Mentoring support for young people in secondary schools through a partnership with MCR Pathways. Work is in hand with The Third Sector Chief Officers Group has co-designed and is co-delivering a collaborative change project which has been funded from the Child Poverty & Early Intervention Fund on three priorities relating to child poverty, namely childcare, support in employability and financial inclusion. In addition to the above, the HSCP re-affirmed its commitment to tackling Inequalities by continuing to consider it a key priority with the Partnership’s Strategic Plan. Through the HSCP strategic plan, the Partnership sets out actions to tackle inequality through its Partnership Pledge and across its strategic priorities. Tackling inequalities is addressed across HSCP service areas. An example of actions to help address local inequalities include: Establishing the Money Matters service in 9 GP practices and 7 local schools in the more deprived areas of North Ayrshire. This will improve accessibility of the service to those who would benefit most. Building on this approach through the launch of the Financial Inclusion Partnership bringing a range of key partners and stakeholders together to improve access and support for the most vulnerable NA residents. Increase the number of employability mentors in Justice Services, to support those with experience of the justice service into meaningful employment or training opportunities and to help divert away from criminal behaviours. Working closely with Housing colleagues to support transitions from care and ensuring care experienced young people can access a positive and stable housing destination. In our Drug and Alcohol Services, we are implementing actions to reduce the number of local drug and alcohol related harms and deaths. This includes implementing the national MAT (Medicated Assisted Treatment) standards and increasing the number of ABIs (Alcohol Brief Interventions) delivered across North Ayrshire. Through the Caring for Ayrshire programme, we have set out a phased approach to improve local primary care premises (GP Practices and Health Centres). This will improve overall professional capacity within GP practices for Multi-Disciplinary Teams, ensuring the right support is available for local people with health concerns. Investment in early intervention teams and approaches in Children’s Services to support vulnerable families, including in Child Protection and Whole Family Support. A range of strategies are in place to ensure our strategies and investment are informed by as wide a range of views as possible. The recent incorporation of the UNCRC has ensured that children and young people’s right to participate is upheld by all services.
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Status Risk Score Heat Map Change in Score Approach No Change Treat Stable 20
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Strategic Risk Action Plan Date Updated 27-Jan-26 Analysis of Effectiveness of Controls Further Action Required Target Date for Completion Officers Responsible Current Status: RAG Global and national conditions which affect the cost-of-living and poverty continue to exacerbate local challenges. Despite that substantial work continues to attempt to mitigate inequalities, child poverty data continues to show an increase. 26 February 2026: The CPP Board continues to focus its strategic activity on CPCOL and the reduction of inequalities. Locality planning has a renewed focus on inequalities within areas and driving forward change at locality level including through current work to develop Locality Profiles and forthcoming strengthening of Locality Networks and public, third and private sector collaboration to tackle inequalities. As part of the budget setting process for 2026/27, an additional £276k allocation was made to address Child Poverty which will provide further project capacity linked to CHES, the Fairer Futures Partnership, Whole Family Support pilot and other initiatives. A new, cross-service ‘Children & Families Plan’ is being developed which will include within it our strategic approach to addressing child poverty over the period 2026-2029. That Plan ius due to be presented to Cabinet in June and will detail priorities and next steps. The Third Sector Chief Officers Group have commenced implementation of the ‘Money Max’ project, offering additional resourcing capacity to provide wraparound support to the most vulnerable families as a prevention and early intervention test of change. We are working on the delivery of the action plan around childcare which is associated with child poverty work. We continue to work to build and support capacity in community and voluntary organisations which mitigate the impacts of poverty. Work has begun on the new Active Communities strategy which will have a focus on reducing health inequalities through supporting activity across North Ayrshire. The Wellbeing Alliance has refined its approach to focus on the impacts of child poverty over the next three years and will deliver a range of targeted projects. Continued support for the Fairer Food Network, including the allocation of additional £100k funding from the CPEIF, ensures continued access to dignified food provision. We are working in collaboration with the Island Plan Delivery Groups to ensure effective spend of funding to address island related inequalities. Access to support and information around other interventions is *Ongoing* David Hammond/Sam Anson/Caroline Cameron
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION made available through the library service.
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Risk Code SRR2627_R03 Risk Title Financial Sustainability of the Health and Social Care Partnership Latest Update 22-Jan-26 Risk Owner Caroline Cameron Risk Proximity Factors Consequences / Impact Existing Risk Control Measures Likelihood Impact Resources have not kept pace with the demand for and cost of social care services. Financial modelling suggests significant ongoing challenges across the medium-term with 2026/27 being particularly challenging as the superannuation increase will cost £7.2m and this is prior to considering other pressures which takes the total pressures to £25m approx. There is no certainty around future funding against growing demand, increasing costs and demographic pressures, with one- year budget settlements remaining in place. The most recent Medium Term Financial Outlook identified that, based on the current assumptions made, there could be a budget gap across the period 2026-2029 ranging from £27.746m in the best case to £47.968m in the worst case if no new funding is provided. The 2026/27 Scottish Government budget settlement did not include any direct investment in social care. The level of 2026/27 funding will be subject to the agreement of the North Ayrshire Council budget. The ongoing work to review the Integration Scheme and to develop new risk-sharing arrangements between the Council and Health Board in relation to the acute set aside and primary care prescribing present a financial risk to the Partnership and Council. Unearmarked reserves are depleted, there is no scope to absorb in-year variances, with any overspends requiring additional funding from partners. The wider system financial challenges and impact across the whole system, for example the financial position of NHS AA and the decisions taken to reduce the Board’s deficit may have impacts on other parts of the health and care system. The Partnership is projecting an overspend of £5m in 2025/26, reduced from the £1.9m if the approved recovery plan is fully delivered. The financial position throughout 2025/26 and into 2026/27 remains challenging for the IJB. Funding levels could result in savings being made that are not in alignment with the strategic plan. This could impact on the future demand levels e.g. reduction in early intervention and prevention means that future demand is increased. This will include a review of the eligibility criteria for care as well as the provision of non-personal care and cost capping. The in-year overspend position poses a financial risk to the Council and NHS Board as funding bodies. Funding levels increase the requirement to transform services at scale and pace. The IJB actively monitors the financial position with regular detailed reporting. Directors of Finance of the Council and Health Board have oversight, and regular updates are provided to the Council's Cabinet. There is an integrated approach to managing the totality of NHS and Council resources delegated to the IJB. A three-year Medium-term Financial Outlook is updated on a rolling basis each year. Previous financial settlements have seen both partners meet the Scottish Government settlement conditions with any additional resources passed to the IJB. The Partnership has developed a new 3-year Transformation Plan 2024-2027 which was approved by the IJB in March 2024. Services will continue to work towards implementing the recovery plan to deliver cost reduction targets while carefully managing the level of risk. The management actions and governance framework agreed in 2024/25 will continue throughout 2025/26. Additional actions approved for 2025/26: • Recruitment delay – there will be a recruitment drag with vacancy scrutiny approved vacancies being held for four weeks before they are advertised to create more payroll turnover. This will be for all vacancies except clinical or registered services vacancies or those which will incur cover costs. • High-cost care package group – the remit of this group will be expanded to include care packages for children with a disability and all UNPACs placement requests. • Oversight group for looked after and accommodated children in residential care – this group meets fortnightly to actively review all placement. • The following recovery actions were approved at the 11th December 2025 IJB: • Care home placements – move to one admission for every two discharges as per PSMT approval on 20th November 2025. The care placements at CARG to be approved on the basis of risk and need rather than current care setting. These levels will be exceeded where the risk to adults remaining in the community is considered too great and the only alternative is in immediately accessing a care placement. This may impact on delayed discharges within our acute and community hospitals. • Care at home – recruitment freeze to gradually reduce the overspend position. Again, this will impact on wait times and 5 5
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION service performance. • All care packages (out with in house care at home and older people placements agreed via CARG) will be considered for approval by the high-cost care package group. In preparation for the 2026/27 a six week budget engagement was undertaken with the public, staff, providers and community groups. Budget updates have also been provided regularly to the IJB Finance working group. Status Risk Score Heat Map Change in Score Approach No Change Treat Stable 25
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Strategic Risk Action Plan Date Updated 22-Jan-26 Analysis of Effectiveness of Controls Further Action Required Target Date for Completion Officers Responsible Current Status: RAG Budget Monitoring - Regular budget monitoring reports to IJB are effective. 22 January 2026: Regular budget monitoring updates to the IJB which include the projected outturn, recovery plan actions and the associated risks. 31-Mar-2027 Caroline Cameron Corrective Action – Transformation Board is effective 22 January 2026: The December 2025 Transformation Board approved an updated Terms of Reference and a refreshed Transformation Plan. This will see a reduction in the number of projects as a result of the following actions: • Condensing any workstreams into one singular project with defined benefits. • Closing or accelerating to completion any projects that are nearing their end and/or unlikely to deliver benefits. • Removing items from the Plan which are not projects, e.g. research, reviews, strategy updates. • Ensuring any remaining projects have clearly defined objectives and benefits and support the HSCP’s financial plans. 31-Mar-2027 Caroline Cameron Enhanced Financial Controls 22 January 2026: Regular budget monitoring updates to the IJB which include the projected outturn, recovery plan actions and the associated risk. Additional recovery plan actions were approved at the December 2025 IJB. 31-Mar-2027 Caroline Cameron National Influence/Escalation 22 January 2026: Continued representation at the Chief Officer and CFO networks, Participation in SG sessions to outline the local and national financial position of IJBs. 31-Mar-2027 Caroline Cameron
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Risk Code SRR2627_R04 Risk Title Cyber Security Latest Update 21-Jan-26 Risk Owner Fiona Walker Risk Proximity Factors Consequences / Impact Existing Risk Control Measures Likelihood Impact The potential compromise of business operations or a data breach orchestrated via either digital channels or the IT infrastructure. This can include targeting of the user base. Risk derives from both Council operations and those of its supply chain. The increasing importance of delivering services through digital channels and maximising efficiency through effective and secure use of technology. This includes a growing adoption of cloud-based computing resources which extend processing capabilities, and associated risks, beyond the Council’s network. Hybrid remote and mobile working is now the normal working practice for over 3,000 staff. Such a distributed work force increases the complexity of protecting against cyber and data protection risks. Failure by Services to adopt and comply with strategies, policies and procedures may result in a failure to adequately ensure the desired levels of cyber-security required to maintain and protect council systems and data. There may be a significant impact on the authority through the release of personal and/or sensitive information resulting in a loss of public confidence and significant financial loss incurred through fines and service disruption. A successful cyber-attack (malicious external or internal action) on the Council’s IT environments could also result in significant service disruption, loss of income streams and possible data loss/exposure. Impacts of a cyber-attack could include economic (i.e. inability to collect online payments), societal disruption (i.e. loss of diaries and client appointments), and reputational damage (i.e. loss of public confidence in digital services). It is recognised that it is not possible for any organisation to expect to be completely protected against continually evolving cyber threats. A threat actor with sufficient motivation, resource and capability will be able to compromise the most secure system. The Council takes a sociotechnical approach to reducing risk by continually developing protective measures through technical, Organisational and people-focused controls. Technical controls are implemented in areas such as network defences, secure configuration of systems, user authentication, malware protection, and vulnerability management. These are based on best practice and independently tested on an annual basis to confirm their effectiveness in accordance with compliance schemes. The Council employ a fully managed Security Operations Centre (SOC) service which provides advanced monitoring, detection and response capabilities on 24/7, 365 days a year basis. The Council maintains a comprehensive set of policies, standards, guidelines, metrics and reporting mechanisms as part of its information security governance structure. A comprehensive training and awareness programme is delivered to nurture a cyber- aware workforce and culture. Recent high profile cyber incidents affecting both the UK retail and public sectors demonstrate a continued increase in the sophistication and severity of cybercrime. However, the bolstering of the Council’s Cyber Security programme through additional resource, technology and improved processes alongside wider efforts in improving the Council’s resilience mean that the overall risk severity score remains stable. The cyber security landscape continues to evolve rapidly, and this position will be routinely monitored and reviewed. 4 4 Status Risk Score Heat Map Change in Score Approach No change Treat Stable 16
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Strategic Risk Action Plan Date Updated 21-Jan-26 Analysis of Effectiveness of Controls Further Action Required Target Date for Completion Officers Responsible Current Status: RAG Incident Detection and Response – Recent cyber-attacks on public sector organisations highlight the need for robust incident detection and response procedures and technologies. The current response procedures been shown to be effective based on incidents experienced so far, however detection capabilities will need to be reviewed and improved. 21 January 2026: The Council’s Managed Security Operations Centre (SOC) has now fully transitioned into business as usual operation. Detection, response and escalation routines are well established, and telemetry sources have been optimised to ensure comprehensive visibility across our estate. The Cyber Security Team will continue to work in partnership with the SOC provider to mature capabilities through an ongoing programme of tuning, refinement and continuous improvement. This will ensure detection and response remain effective as the threat landscape evolves. 31-Mar-2025 – achieved. Ongoing Fiona Walker Training and Awareness 21 January 2026: The most recent phishing simulation exercise shows a continued downward trend in user interactions, reflecting the impact of recent awareness raising efforts, including the revamped mandatory Cyber Security iLearn course. A key focus has been improving reporting behaviours, enhanced messaging and new reporting mechanisms have resulted in a significant increase in staff reporting suspicious emails and activity. Early reporting aids prompt intervention which is vital in limiting the impact of potential cyber incidents. Efforts continue to extend cyber security engagement to the Education service. The Cyber Security Team hosted a table at a recent Great Place to Work event which took place in a secondary school and was visited by over 400 staff, and additional communications and initiatives are being tailored for school based staff. This remains a priority given recent cyber incident affecting the Education estates of other Scottish local authorities. Ongoing Fiona Walker
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Risk Code SRR2627_R05 Risk Title Transformation Latest Update 05-Feb-26 Risk Owner Mark Boyd Risk Proximity Factors Consequences / Impact Existing Risk Control Measures Likelihood Impact There is a risk that transformation and change activities, which are core to the future delivery models and long-term financial sustainability of both the Council and Health and Social Care Partnership, fail to deliver at the level of scale and pace required. Failure to deliver transformational change will impact on the Council’s financial sustainability, effectiveness of service delivery and delivery of the outcomes set out in the Council Plan 2023-28 and the Local Outcome Improvement Plan (LOIP). Failure to deliver the HSCP Transformation programmes across the Partnership, involving North Ayrshire Council (NAC) and NHS Ayrshire & Arran (NHSAA) services may lead to the identified outcomes not being delivered; resulting in financial instability, reduced performance, deteriorating patient outcomes, and reputational damage within North Ayrshire Health and Social Care Partnership (NAHSCP). Failure to embed cultural transformation activities may lead to difficulties in building future workforce capacity and in ensuring we have an engaged, skilled and knowledgeable workforce to meet service demand. The transformation programme aligns to the Council Plan and is monitored via the Transformation Board. The Board is chaired by the Chief Executive. Workstreams have been developed across Transport and Travel, Digital, Land and Property assets, Sustainability, Financial Inclusion as well as ongoing reviews across Waste Services, ELC, Learning Resources and Housing. HSCP have an established Transformation Board to closely monitor progress with plans, regular updates on programme to the IJB and regular meetings with the Chief Executive and S95 Officer to review progress and mitigation plans. Cultural transformation activities continue to evolve to support the Council’s transformation and improve effectiveness and capability. This includes sharing learning and skills, engagement, design experiments and a whole systems approach to transformation and change. Our workforce planning approach utilises a variety of tools and techniques, such as career development, succession planning, vacancy management, redeployment and early release schemes to ensure our workforce requirements for the future, in terms of skills and capabilities, are planned. Each Head of Service has a workforce plan, and these are monitored six-monthly with continued HR support and guidance to ensure service review and redesign of the workforce is on track. 3 4 Status Risk Score Heat Map Change in Score Approach No Change Treat Stable 12
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Strategic Risk Action Plan Date Updated 05-Feb-26 Analysis of Effectiveness of Controls Further Action Required Target Date for Completion Officers Responsible Current Status: RAG Existing project level governance and controls remain effective and are constantly reviewed. 11 February 2026: Governance arrangements remain robust and good progress continues across all workstreams. Programme will undergo further review following the 26/27 Budget. Quarterly Mark Boyd / Chief Executive and Executive Directors Review current governance arrangements and project delivery in view of land and property workstream to seek optimal delivery aligned to the council’s net zero ambitions. 11 February 2026: Energisation achieved for the 2 solar farms for Nethermains and Shewalton. Council continues to make good progress in reducing energy consumption across the estate with robust monitoring arrangements in place. 31-March-2027 Mark Boyd / Chief Executive and Executive Directors
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Risk Code SRR2627_R06 Risk Title Climate Change Latest Update 05-Feb-26 Risk Owner Russell McCutcheon Risk Proximity Factors Consequences / Impact Existing Risk Control Measures Likelihood Impact Climate change is expected to continue and worsen in the future if no action is taken, with increases to mean global temperatures, sea level rises and the increasing frequency and severity of weather events such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. More frequent and intense heavy rainfall events increase the risk of soil erosion and flooding. Rises in mean sea level increases risks of coastal erosion, flooding, saltwater intrusion and soil salinisation (risk to agricultural land and freshwater habitats). Severe weather is already affecting public services across Scotland, with operational, reputational, financial and legal consequences. There is also an ongoing impact of severe winter weather including snowfall and freezing temperatures which impact service delivery and the integrity of our roads open space and buildings infrastructure. This shift in weather patterns caused by climate change is also affecting biodiversity across Scotland. Increased frequency of severe weather conditions and flooding events may lead to more instances of damage to Council infrastructure and property, interruptions to service delivery and increased demands on services, often with little notice. Risk to life, transport disruption and pollution to the local environment, as well as impact adversely on the local economy if businesses are unable to operate. Council requirement to provide immediate response and manage the adverse effects of more frequent and severe weather emergency situations, including support to local communities and businesses. The Council is required to comply with the ‘Public Bodies Climate Change Duties’ under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. These duties require the Council to assess the risks, threats and opportunities associated with climate change and identify actions to increase resilience to climate change. North Ayrshire Council declared a Climate Emergency in June 2019, committing to act on climate change and reduce carbon emissions. In January 2020 the Council approved the target to become net-zero carbon by 2030, for both Council estate emissions and area-wide emissions. Following implementation of the Council’s third Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change Strategy (2021-23), Cabinet approved the new Sustainable North Ayrshire Strategy (2024-27) in December 2023. This strategy provides a road map to achieve the net zero carbon emissions by 2030 target. There are 5 workstreams within the Sustainable North Ayrshire strategy, namely Energy, Nature, Transport, Waste and Adaptation. We continue to utilise Adaptation Scotland’s Capability Framework to ensure North Ayrshire takes a strong, proactive approach to adapting to climate change. Officers are participating in the Sustainable Scotland Network’s ‘Adaptation Scotland Benchmarking Group’ to learn and share best practice with other local authorities. Adaptation actions are identified within the Ayrshire Flood Risk Management Plan (2021), the Ayrshire Local Flood Risk Management Plan (2022), the Ayrshire Shoreline Management Plan and in the Adaptation Capability Framework. Flood studies are undertaken to help the Council identify areas that are at risk of flooding and to appraise options to reduce flood risk to communities and infrastructure. In addition, actions to mitigate Climate Change risk are held within strategies such as the Local Transport and Active Travel Strategy, Local Biodiversity Action Plan, Vacant and Derelict Land Strategy and Weather and Winter Emergencies Plan. Asset management plans are in place which are regularly reviewed for our Roads, Fleet, Housing, Property and Open Spaces. Furthermore, through the Ayrshire Civil Contingencies Team there are emergency planning arrangements in place in the event of severe weather and flooding conditions causing major disruption and damage to the area or to individual communities within it. 4 4 Status Risk Score Heat Map Change in Score Approach No change Treat Stable 16
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Strategic Risk Action Plan Date Updated 05-Feb-26 Analysis of Effectiveness of Controls Further Action Required Target Date for Completion Officers Responsible Current Status: RAG Reducing Carbon Emissions: North Ayrshire Council declared a Climate Emergency in June 2019, committing to act on climate change and reduce carbon emissions. In January 2020 the Council approved the target to become net-zero carbon by 2030, for both Council estate emissions and area-wide emissions. The Council has taken action against climate change since our first Carbon Management Plan in 2006/07, by working to reduce emissions associated with Council services, and using the baseline year of 2005/06 from which to measure progress. Since the baseline year of 2005/06, Council estate emissions have reduced by 67%, from 63,334 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) to 20,745 tCO2e. Area-wide emissions are published by BEIS. Current records show total emissions have reduced across North Ayrshire by 42.6%, from 1,454 kilo-tonnes of carbon dioxide (ktCO2) in 2005 to 835 ktCO2 in 2019. To ensure North Ayrshire Council can develop a leading, cross- sector and community led approach we established a Climate Change Steering Group (CCSG) in 2021. The CCSG is chaired by the Cabinet Member for Green Environment and Economy, and brings together young people, local businesses and community organisations from across North Ayrshire. Existing controls remain effective and are under review as our response to climate change develops and we progress towards achieving net zero by the 2030 target. 11 September 2025 Following delays in the testing and energisation of the Solar Farms, these will now be connected to the grid and generating clean electricity (and income to the Council) in the Autumn of 2025. A recent SALIX recycling funding application has secured £184k, to be match funded by the Council. This will assist us in our on-going work to decarbonise the estate. Reporting to ELT of energy use and site-by-site performance across the Council now takes place. A programme of 14 Electric Vehicle Charge point installation is underway. In addition, work continues in partnership with the Ayrshire Roads Alliance to deliver 307 charge points across Ayrshire. It is anticipated a contractor will be appointed for this work in Q1 2026. 31-Mar-2027 Russell McCutcheon
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Strategic Risk Action Plan Date Updated 05-Feb-26 Analysis of Effectiveness of Controls Further Action Required Target Date for Completion Officers Responsible Current Status: RAG Flood Risk Management Plan: Cycle 2 of the Ayrshire Local Flood Risk Management Plan has been developed and was published on 31st December 2022. Studies and modelling will be undertaken to identify and prioritise vulnerable areas where financial damage and risk to life are most likely. There is an ongoing programme of monthly inspections of debris screens which have been installed to prevent vulnerable culverts from blocking and causing flooding. CCTV inspections of culverts are also undertaken to identify blockages and deterioration of assets that might cause flooding. This has been effective in reducing flooding, although there are capacity issues h that this process cannot address. The Upper Garnock Valley FPS has been completed and is currently providing flood protection. Ayrshire Shoreline Management Plan: The Ayrshire Shoreline Management Plan will be replaced with a Coastal Change Adaptation Plan. The adaptation plan will enable the Council and other stakeholders to effectively plan our future actions whilst allowing for flexibility in response to future changes. It will incorporate recent international and UK advances in adaptation and shoreline management planning to allow for local interpretation and involvement. 05 February 2026: 1. The construction of the Millport Coastal Flood Protection Scheme is complete. The scheme performed well during Storm Éowyn and no significant reports of coastal flooding in Millport were received. 2. Millport Mill Burn Flood Protection Scheme has been awarded and began construction in Jan 2026, with anticipated completion by summer 2026. 3. The first stage of the Three Towns Flood Study was completed in February 2025 and the scope has been agreed for the second stage. 4. The scheduled clearance and repair work continues to be implemented to help reduce flood impacts to people and property. 5. Following completion of the coastal management studies for Stevenston & Irvine, progress is ongoing to develop local Coastal Change adaptation plans for the study areas. A site investigation is planned to confirm the presence of contaminated spoil and how exposed this material could be to future coastal erosion. 6. Following completion of the Upper Garnock Flood Protection Scheme and an update of the Lower River Irvine hydraulic model, a consultant has now updated the relevant parts of the Council’s flood resilience plan, including measures at Cunninghame House and Marress House. 30-Jun-2028 Thomas Reaney
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Risk Code SRR2627_R07 Risk Title Community Capacity Building and Empowerment Latest Update 15-Jan-26 Risk Owner Rhonda Leith Risk Proximity Factors Consequences / Impact Existing Risk Control Measures Likelihood Impact Unrealistic timescales for progressing aspects of legislation of the Community Empowerment Act (Scotland) 2015, such as Community Asset Transfer. Potential changes to national legislation and unintended consequences that impact upon our local community structures and support. Pressure to support community capacity building and reduce council portfolio with reduced staff capability. Complying with the complex and resource intensive consultation legislation in service redesign e.g. . Equality Impact Assessments Duplication of effort across HSCP and Locality Partnerships to foster community participation and deliver engagement activities. Budget savings and pressure on property maintenance budgets. Cat fund: 200k was removed from the CAT Start up Fund as a budget pressure. Coupled with that, the additional demand placed on the fund for internal upgrading of NAC properties has had a big impact on the fund. The continuation of the post in TACT is critical to the work. Failure to meet legal requirements such as deadlines. Accelerating asset transfer risks losing services and facilities and risks the ability to plan, connect and deliver strategic services. Where the risk is not managed effectively the potential benefits of community capacity building and empowerment may be lost. Widening inequality gap between those communities where levels of capacity and engagement with the empowerment agenda are high and those with less social capital where interest remains low, which constrains the ability to influence the planning and delivery service. Any disconnect between the Council’s aspirations, community appetite for increasing ownership of assets and what communities themselves feel able and prepared to commit to can result in community assets reverting back to Council. Over-engagement carries disengagement and engagement fatigue. Resource reduction risks failure to meet legislative consultation protocols. Risks a disconnect in priorities and waste in resources by duplicating effort. Increased property costs can be a deterrent for organisations engaging and completing the CAT process. Furthermore, it can be a deterrent for expanding use of Community Facilities and impact income generation. Lack of budget to undertake proactive maintenance is resulting in NAC buildings falling into disrepair detracting organisations from progressing to lease and or ownership of NAC assets. Without the post and a small operational budget for legal costs etc the delivery of the CAT process will be left in a critical position. A collaboration and shared resource approach across Connected Communities Teams will be taken to ensure the Service deliver on this priority. Careful monitoring of staffing capacity to ensure legislation is met. Standing item at Senior Manager Meetings to assess impact. Utilising national links to share our expertise. Ongoing commitment to community empowerment and locality partnerships from CPP. Enabling approach with community partners and support with third sector interface to build capacity and identify opportunities for growth and sustainability. External funding bid helps groups through regular meetings with third sector, funders and funding officer. Joint support for training with Scottish Community Development Centre. Standing item at Senior Manager Meetings to assess impact Utilising National links to share our expertise. Reviewed guidance and processes relating to community empowerment functions. Six locality partnerships and alignment with HSCP locality arrangements Leadership of the CPP Senior Officers’ Group. External funding bid support for groups through regular meetings with third sector, funders and funding officer. Joint support for training with Scottish Community Development Centre. Continue collaborative meetings with PMI partners and escalate property issues/safety standards with PMi and H&S for mitigation measures to be put in place. Increased site visits to assess conditions and safety standards. Ring fenced CAT funding which will be utilised to target buildings earmarked for potential CAT. Further internal revenue investment focused on building condition. 5 4
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Status Risk Score Heat Map Change in Score Approach No change Treat Stable 20
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Strategic Risk Action Plan 15-Jan-26 Analysis of Effectiveness of Controls Further Action Required Target Date for Completion Officers Responsible Current Status: RAG Implementation of Community Empowerment Act: Existing controls remain effective and are kept under review. 15 January 2026: Continue to assess compliance and capacity to adhere to legislation and demands. 31-Mar-2027 Rhonda Leith Staff capacity: Existing controls remain effective however forthcoming reductions in CLD temp posts and reduction in library service capacity will prompt close monitoring of staff capacity. 15 January 2026: Capacity remains a concern. Ongoing monitoring taking place. Regular review at weekly SMT to assess levels and priorities. 31-Dec-2027 Rhonda Leith Duplication of effort: Capacity is a restriction to clearly defined roles and lean processes are reviewed and maintained to avoid duplication of effort and minimise time and resource wastage. The team foster open communication channels with both staff and key stakeholders. 15 January 2026: Consideration of admin functions remains a focus. Alignment of HSCP and wider engagement methods in development. 31-Dec-2027 Rhonda Leith Consultation: Existing controls remain effective and hybrid engagement models have been implemented and embedded to encourage and provide greater access to participation. 15 January 2026: Early planning for forthcoming consultation to ensure balanced approach meeting legislation and allocating resources. Joint training with Scottish Community Development Centre is being planned following the Connected Leadership programme on Communities and Local Democracy. 31-Mar-2027 Rhonda Leith Increased property costs and lack of investment in community assets. 15 January 2026: Strategic plan continues to be delivered with ELT oversight. Connected Communities and PMI staff meet regularly to prioritise work and assess any high-risk areas in terms of building condition and safety. External funding routes are being explored and maximised on an ongoing basis. 31-Mar 2027 Rhonda Leith
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Risk Code SRR2627_R08 Risk Title Property Asset Risk Latest Update 26-Jan-26 Risk Owner Russell McCutcheon Risk Proximity Factors Consequences / Impact Existing Risk Control Measures Likelihood Impact Restricted capital budgets are leading to a gradual decline in the condition of the Council’s property assets, increasing long-term investment requirements. Nationally recognised building safety issues, including RAAC, alongside ageing heating and mechanical systems, have highlighted the growing burden of asset management. Several near-misses and critical failures have occurred, with limited ability to replace assets on a planned basis. Ongoing inflation and volatility in construction costs further constrain the Council’s capacity to address competing priorities. Maintenance failures are increasingly likely to disrupt service delivery and compromise health, safety, and statutory compliance. Significant property incidents requiring closures, decants, or major interventions are becoming more frequent and often coincide with severe weather events. Property condition data is recorded within the Council’s asset management system to inform lifecycle planning and prioritisation of limited investment across the estate. Reactive maintenance and statutory compliance are delivered corporately by PMI using appropriately trained staff. Property rationalisation is being progressed through the Transformation Programme to reduce estate size, financial burden, and carbon emissions. Risk-based property reviews are underway to assess impacts on service delivery, informing both investment and business continuity planning. This work is ongoing within the school estate and is being extended to other assets. Post-incident reviews are undertaken to capture lessons learned and implement actions where feasible. Business continuity planning, recognising the risks associated with potential building unavailability, is being strengthened. Following one such review where significant damage was sustained at Greenwood Campus, PMI has submitted a Pressure Bid to request funding for an annual roof maintenance program. If this budget is approved, it will support regular flat roof inspections on buildings that are both more vulnerable and of higher value, allowing for proactive maintenance to take place. A joint Sustainability/PMI working group coordinates this investment to maximise both condition and energy performance benefits. An additional £0.5M has been allocated to the Property Lifecycle Budget for 2025/26 to address condition-related concerns, with a further £0.5M designated for energy efficiency initiatives. This increased investment has contributed to addressing priority issues throughout the property estate. Due to the delayed construction schedule for Ardrossan 4 5 Status Risk Score Heat Map Change in Score Approach No Change Treat Stable 20
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OFFICIAL INFORMATION OFFICIAL INFORMATION Strategic Risk Action Plan Date Updated 26-Jan-26 Analysis of Effectiveness of Controls Further Action Required Target Date for Completion Officers Responsible Current Status: RAG CC&M team within PMI managing reactive maintenance and statutory compliance. Team resources stretched; however, restricted budgets are principal risk. 26 January 2026: Recent vacancies and periods of staff absence have been addressed, and the team is now approaching full attendance. Ongoing Russell McCutcheon Asset management team within PMI collecting asset condition information and leading prioritisation of lifecycle investment. Improved asset management system is being investigated; however, restricted budgets are principal risk. 26 January 2026: Ongoing cyclical condition surveys are being conducted throughout the estate, with the collected data informing decisions about key investment needs. A decision is still pending regarding the Pressure Bid for putting a new IWMS asset management system in place. Ongoing Russell McCutcheon Property rationalisation programme Locality based property review work currently underway to increase scale and pace of implementation. 26 January 2026: PMI and connected Communities have completed two workstreams on property use, combining proposals for asset consolidation, colocation, and potential disposal into one document. This information was reviewed in a workshop with the Transformation Board. Proposals are now being prioritised, and action plans with timelines and governance milestones are being set. Ongoing Russell McCutcheon Risk based property review process Requires up to date property information, including client information and cross service buy-in to be effective. 26 January 2026: Regular meetings between PMI and key service area leads are held to quickly identify and address new challenges and risks. Ongoing Russell McCutcheon