Budget Outlook 2026-27 to 2030-31

Argyll and Bute Council · 21 August 2025
Back to Policy and Resources Committee — 21 August 2025 and its agenda

Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.

Original council PDF · Download plain text

Page 1

ARGYLL AND BUTE COUNCIL POLICY AND RESOURCES COMMITTEE
FINANCIAL SERVICES 21 AUGUST 2025
BUDGET OUTLOOK 2026-27 TO 2030-31  
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
1.1 This report summarises the Budget Outlook for the 5-year period 2026-27 to
2030-31 and provides an update to the position previously reported to the
Policy and Resources Committee in May 2025.  It is underpinned by planning
assumptions that will continue to be updated and refined, on an ongoing basis,
throughout the year. 
1.2 The Budget Outlook has been prepared using three different scenarios, best
case, worst case and mid-range.  The detailed information contained within the
report focusses primarily on the mid-range scenario, however, all three
scenarios are outlined within Appendix 1. 
1.3 
1.4 
Current suggested planning assumptions are for a Scottish average increase in
Scottish Government funding of 0.5% for the mid-range, with a variation of
0.5% for the best and worst case scenarios.  As this council relies on the floor
mechanism to protect its funding level, our settlement is lower than the Scottish
average change.  The floor was set at 0.75% below the Scottish average in
2025-26 and is likely to continue at this level.  As such, funding assumptions for
this council range between an increase of 0.25% (best case) and a reduction of
0.75% (worst case), with a reduction of 0.25% in the mid-range scenario. 
Since last reporting, additional recurring funding to fully meet the increased
cost of the 2025-26 pay award, in respect of both council and Social Work
services, has been assumed for planning purposes.  However, at this stage,
additional funding in respect of the increased cost of the 2026-27 pay award is
assumed in the best case scenario only. 
As part of the 2025-26 budget process, £2.499m of the estimated 2025-26
funding available in respect of Packaging Extended Producer Responsibility
from the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) was
carried forward into 2026-27.  Since previously reporting, the funding allocation
for 2025-26 has been confirmed at £2.786m, £1.061m less than the original
estimate provided by DEFRA of £3.847m.  This reduces the carry forward into
2026-27 to £1.438m.  It remains uncertain as to whether this funding will be
recurring in 2026-27 and future years, without a reduction in Scottish
Government grant.  At this stage, funding is assumed to continue into 2026-27
and future years at the 2025-26 level in the best case, at 50% of the 2025-26
level in the mid-range and £nil in the worst case scenarios.  Funding conditions
and future years budget pressures remain unclear. 
1.5  There are no changes to previous assumptions in respect of Council Tax
growth.  The Council Tax base is assumed to grow by 0.25% in the worst case,
0.5% in the mid-range and 0.75% in the best case scenarios.

Page 2

1.6 Work is ongoing to develop a more sophisticated financial modelling tool to
assist with Council Tax income projections.  The 2024-25 final outturn included
additional income of £1.234m in respect of 2024-25 and prior years, an
element of which was expected to be recurring in 2025-26 and future years. 
There is currently a significant level of uncertainty in respect of the
classification of self-catering units as either non-domestic or domestic
dwellings, and the implications for council tax income, presenting a risk to
financial planning assumptions.  At this stage, a re-base of the current Council
Tax budget, estimated at £0.5m in the mid-range scenario (£0.250m in the
worst case and £0.750m in the best case scenarios) has been assumed within
the Budget Outlook.  This position will be subject to ongoing review and
refinement throughout the year.     
1.7 Since last reporting, following agreement of the SJC and Chief Officers pay
award for 2025-26 and 2026-27 at 4% and 3.5% respectively, assumptions in
respect of employee costs for council services have been updated as follows: 
• An increase of 4% for 2025-26 and 3.5% for 2026-27 across all scenarios,
3% for 2027-28 in both the best case and mid-range scenarios, with 5%
assumed in the worst case scenario.  For 2028-29 and 2029-30, the best
case scenario has been reduced to 2%, while the mid-range remains at 3%
and worst case remains at 5%.  
• The Teachers pay award now covers the period August to July and has
already been agreed up to 31 July 2025.  At this stage, an increase for
2025-26 and 2026-27 has been assumed in line with the SJC agreed pay
award.  However, this is still at a negotiating stage.  Any increase beyond
planning assumptions will have a further impact on the base budget and
Budget Outlook position.
• The cost of pay increments for 2025-26 is estimated at £0.599m.  For future
years, an equivalent cost has been assumed in the mid-range and worst
case scenarios, while half the estimated 2025-26 cost has been assumed in
the best case scenario. 
1.8 For non-pay inflation, only unavoidable inflation has been provided for within
each scenario, with the mid-range scenario based on current market forecast
data, where available.  A further general inflation contingency has been built
into the mid-range and worst case scenarios.  This position continues to be
monitored in light of market volatility.  However, at this stage, given prevalent
levels of uncertainty, there continues to be no change to the inflationary
assumptions included within the 2025-26 Budget Pack. 
1.9 There are a number of cost and demand pressures for council services built
into each scenario, across all five years, comprising the following:
• ASN Support
• School Clothing Grants
• Schools Residential
• Education ICT Network Infrastructure
• Election Costs
• Planning (Local Development Plan)

Page 3

• Universal Credit – HB Admin grant 
• Civica Revenue and Benefits Management System 
• Migration to Teams Telephony
• Microsoft 365 Licenses
• Compliance with BMW Ban 
• Bus Transport Contracts
• Valuation Joint Board 
1.10 In addition to the identified cost and demand pressures, a general allowance
for currently unforeseen or unquantifiable cost and demand pressures
continues to be included in each scenario (best case £0.250m, mid-range
£0.500m and worst case £1m per year). 
1.11 Political decisions will require to be made in respect of the allocation to the
Health and Social Care Partnership in future years.  As part of the 2025-26
budget process, indicative base allocations of £85.045m were agreed for 2026-
27 and 2027-28, with future years’ allocations being subject to Scottish
Government grant funding and the council’s overall financial position.  Since
last reporting, these allocations have been updated to reflect the impact of the
agreed pay award for 2025-26 in respect of Social Work services, on the
planning assumption that these additional costs will be met by the council, with
additional Scottish Government grant funding assumed in respect of the 2025-
26 pay award only, at this stage.  An update to the allocation in respect of the
2026-27 pay award, funded by additional Scottish Government grant funding,
has been reflected in the best case scenario only.  
1.12 The budget gap in the mid-range scenario, prior to measures to balance the
budget, either from previous savings decisions or new potential options, is
estimated at £15.358m in 2026-27 and £58.413m over the five year period
2026-27 to 2030-31. 
1.13 The measures to balance the budget over the next five years are as follows:
• Proposed increases to fees and charges of between 3% and 9% each year
(6% mid-range).
• Proposed increases to Council Tax at 5% each year across all scenarios.
• Management/Operational and Policy savings already agreed by Council in
February 2025 and previous years. 
1.14 The budget gap in the mid-range scenario, after measures to balance the
budget, is estimated at £10.459m in 2026-27 and £33.925m over the five year
period 2026-27 to 2030-31.   
1.15 The budget gap in the best case scenario is estimated at £4.412m in 2026-27
and £10.814m over five years, increasing to £15.584m in 2026-27 and
£65.610m over five years in the worst case scenario.  A summary of all three
scenarios is included within Appendix 1.  
1.16 It is recommended that the Policy and Resources Committee consider the
current Budget Outlook position for the period 2026-27 to 2030-31.

Page 4

ARGYLL AND BUTE COUNCIL POLICY AND RESOURCES COMMITTEE
FINANCIAL SERVICES 21 AUGUST 2025
BUDGET OUTLOOK 2026-27 TO 2030-31 
2. INTRODUCTION 
2.1 This report summarises the Budget Outlook for the 5-year period 2026-27 to
2030-31 and provides an update to the position previously reported to the Policy
and Resources Committee in May 2025.  It is underpinned by planning
assumptions that will continue to be updated and refined, on an ongoing basis,
throughout the year.  It should be noted that relatively small variations in
planning assumptions can lead to fairly significant changes to the budget
forecast outcome.   
2.2 The Budget Outlook has been prepared using three different scenarios, best
case, worst case and mid-range.  The detailed information contained within the
report focusses primarily on the mid-range scenario, however, all three
scenarios are outlined within Appendix 1. 
3.  RECOMMENDATIONS 
3.1  It is recommended that the Policy and Resources Committee consider the
current Budget Outlook position for the period 2026-27 to 2030-31.
4. DETAIL 
4.1 Funding 
Scottish Government Finance Settlement 
4.1.1 
4.1.2 
Estimates of future Scottish Government funding levels is one of the key
assumptions within the Budget Outlook.  Whilst council’s are recommended to
prepare longer-term financial plans, with a focus on financial sustainability, this
is more challenging with one year Scottish Government finance settlements.
Council’s will continue to lobby via COSLA for multi-year settlements to assist
with longer-term financial planning. 
As part of the 2025-26 budget setting process, members were advised that
despite an unexpected effective increase of 1.47% in our 2025-26 settlement, it
would be imprudent to assume similar increases in future years, with increases
over the previous 3 years being as low as 0.01%. Current suggested planning
assumptions are for a Scottish average increase in Scottish Government
funding of 0.5% for the mid-range, with a variation of 0.5% for the best and
worst case scenarios.  As this council relies on the floor mechanism to protect
its funding level, our settlement is lower than the Scottish average change.  The
floor was set at 0.75% below the Scottish average in 2025-26 and is likely to
continue at this level.  As such, funding assumptions for this council range

Page 5

4.1.3 
between an increase of 0.25% (best case) and a reduction of 0.75% (worst
case), with a reduction of 0.25% in the mid-range scenario.   
Since last reporting, additional recurring funding to fully meet the increased cost
of the 2025-26 pay award, in respect of both council and Social Work services,
has been assumed for planning purposes.  However, at this stage, additional
funding in respect of the increased cost of the 2026-27 pay award is assumed in
the best case scenario only.     
4.1.4  The table below summarises the mid-range scenario estimates based on a
0.25% settlement reduction year on year.  This includes additional funding in
respect of the agreed 2025-26 pay award for SJC and Chief Officers, and
assumed for Teachers, in respect of both council and HSCP staff (Social Work
services). 
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
SG Funding - Base 261,058 260,406 259,755 259,106 258,459
2025-26 Pay Award 2,305 2,300 2,294 2,288 2,282
Total SG Funding 263,363 262,706 262,049 261,394 260,741 
4.1.5 As part of the 2025-26 budget process, £2.499m of the estimated 2025-26
funding available in respect of Packaging Extended Producer Responsibility
from the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) was
carried forward into 2026-27.  Since previously reporting, the funding allocation
for 2025-26 has been confirmed at £2.786m, £1.061m less than the original
estimate provided by DEFRA of £3.847m.  This reduces the carry forward into
2026-27 to £1.438m.  It remains uncertain as to whether this funding will be
recurring in 2026-27 and future years, without a reduction in Scottish
Government grant.  At this stage, funding is assumed to continue into 2026-27
and future years at the 2025-26 level in the best case, at 50% of the 2025-26
level in the mid-range and £nil in the worst case scenarios.  Funding conditions
and future years budget pressures remain unclear. 
Council Tax 
4.1.6 The Council Tax base for 2025-26 is set at £70.204m, which reflects the 9.9%
increase agreed by the Council on 27 February 2025. 
4.1.7 
4.1.8
There are no changes to previous assumptions around the growth in Council
Tax. It has been assumed that there will be 0.5% growth in the mid-range
scenario for all years from 2026-27 (0.75% in the best and 0.25% in the worst
case scenarios). Following the setting of Council Tax in February, the future
years estimates have been updated reflecting the adjusted base Council Tax
Budget. 
Work is ongoing to develop a more sophisticated financial modelling tool to
assist with Council Tax income projections.  The 2024-25 final outturn included
additional income of £1.234m in respect of 2024-25 and prior years, an element
of which was expected to be recurring in 2025-26 and future years.  A significant

Page 6

element of this additional income (some £0.5m) related to the reclassification of
self-catering units as domestic dwellings by the Assessor, following completion
of both the 2022-23 and 2023-24 canvasses during the year, which saw the
transfer of properties from the Non-domestic Rates to Council Tax registers. 
There is a significant level of uncertainty in respect of the regulatory
environment in this respect, with a risk of appeals being granted and properties
returning to Non-domestic Rates.  This uncertainty in respect of both timing and
financial value, presents a risk to financial planning assumptions.  At this stage,
a re-base of the current Council Tax budget, estimated at £0.250m in the worst
case, £0.500m in the mid-range and £0.750m in the best case scenarios, has
been assumed within the Budget Outlook.  This position will be subject to
ongoing review and refinement throughout the year.     
4.1.9  In the first instance, this report presents the budget gap, prior to any measures
to balance the budget.  For this purpose, Council Tax is assumed to remain at
the same levels as 2025-26, with only growth in the Council Tax base reflected.   
General Fund 
4.1.10 As reported in prior years, reduced employer contribution rates payable to
Strathclyde Pension Fund will result in one-off savings in 2024-25 and 2025-26.
It was agreed by Council in February 2024 that £2m of the pension fund gain
would be released each year for a period of 3 years (2024-25 through to 2026-
27), in order to help bridge the budget gap.  
Funding Summary 
4.1.11  The table below summarises the estimated total funding in the mid-range
scenario over the 5 years 2026-27 to 2030-31. 
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
SG Funding 263,363 262,706 262,049 261,394 260,741
EPR – DEFRA
Funding
1,393 1,393 1,393 1,393 1,393
EPR – 2025-26
Funding C/fwd
1,438 0 0 0 0
Released SPF Gain 2,000 0 0 0 0
Council Tax Base 70,204 70,204 70,204 70,204 70,204
Council Tax Re-base 500 500 500 500 500
Council Tax Growth 354 709 1,066 1,425 1,786
Total Estimated
Funding
339,252 335,512 335,212 334,916 334,624 
4.2 Base Budget 
4.2.1 The 2025-26 budget approved by Council on 27 February 2025 was
£328.289m.  This included the 2025-26 debt charge implications of approved
borrowing for additional capital investment.  There was also a decision to defer
a policy saving in respect of Community Sports until 2026-27 onwards.  The full

Page 7

year effect of these previous budget decisions on 2026-27 and future years are
now incorporated as base budget adjustments. 
4.2.2 The revised base budget is unchanged from the previously reported position
and outlined in the table below: 
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
Base Budget 2025-26 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289
Debt Charges Increase 95 95 95 95 95
Approved Policy
Savings
(20) (20) (20) (20) (20)
Revised Base Budget 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364  
4.3 Employee Cost Changes 
Pay Award 
4.3.1 
4.3.2 
The Public Sector Pay Policy, published alongside the Scottish Budget, set out
a multi-year framework of a 9% pay envelope covering 2025-26, 2026-27 and
2027-28.  A planning assumption of 3% across each of these years underpinned
our previously reported Budget Outlook. 
Since last reporting, following agreement of the SJC and Chief Officers pay
award for 2025-26 and 2026-27 at 4% and 3.5% respectively, assumptions in
respect of employee costs for council services have been updated.  An increase
of 4% for 2025-26 and 3.5% for 2026-27 across all scenarios, 3% for 2027-28 in
both the best case and mid-range scenarios, with 5% in the worst case scenario
has been assumed (at this stage, at 2025-26 prices).  For 2028-29 and 2029-30,
the best case scenario has been reduced to 2%, while the mid-range remains at
3% and worst case remains at 5%.   
4.3.3 The Teachers pay award now covers the period August to July and has already
been agreed up to 31 July 2025.  At this stage, an increase for 2025-26 and
2026-27 has been assumed in line with the SJC agreed pay award.  However,
this is still at a negotiating stage.  Any increase beyond planning assumptions
will have a further impact on the base budget and Budget Outlook position. 
Increments 
4.3.4 
4.3.5
There remains a fairly regular turnover of staff within posts and when this
happens, the cost of increments can, in some cases, be absorbed within the
existing budget provision, as leavers who may be at the top their grade may be 
replaced by new starts at the grade entry point. The cost of pay increments for
2025-26 is estimated at £0.599m. 
For future years, an equivalent cost has been assumed in the mid-range and
worst case scenarios, while half the estimated 2025-26 cost has been assumed
in the best case scenario.

Page 8

4.3.6
Strathclyde Pension Fund 
As previously reported, the employer contribution rate paid to the Strathclyde
Pension Fund fell from 19.3% to 6.5% in 2024-25 and 2025-26, rising to a
sustainable long-term rate of 17.5% from 2026-27. The reduction in the first 2
years equates to reduced costs of £6.875m per annum relating to council
employees (excluding HSCP).  The increased cost to 17.5% from 2026-27 has
been built into projections for 2026-27 and future years. 
Employee Costs Summary 
4.3.7  The table below summarises the employee cost changes in the mid-range
scenario, for council services, over the five years 2026-27 to 2030-31.
Employee cost increases relating to Social Work within the Health and Social
Care Partnership are summarised within paragraph 4.6.4. 
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
Pay Award 7,346 12,124 17,046 22,115 27,337
Full Year Effect 2025-26
Teachers Pay Award
661 661 661 661 661
Increments 599 1,198 1,797 2,396 2,995
Reinstatement of  SPF
contribution
6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875
Total Employee Cost
Changes
15,481 20,858 26,379 32,047 37,868 
4.4 Non-Pay Inflation 
4.4.1 
4.4.2 
4.4.3 
4.4.4
Non-pay inflation is only provided for within budget plans, where it is deemed to
be unavoidable, for example in respect of contractual obligations.  As not all
budget elements are subject to inflationary increases, inflationary budget
pressures may arise in some other areas and in order to manage spend within
available budget resources, service rationalisation or efficiencies may require to
be delivered. 
The Budget Outlook provides for unavoidable non-pay inflation within each
budget scenario.  Market forecast data, where available, is used to inform the
mid-range scenario.  Officers continue to review inflation assumptions on an
ongoing basis, however, due to prevalent market volatility and levels of
uncertainty, at this stage, there has been no change to the inflationary
assumptions included within the 2025-26 Budget Pack. 
In addition, due to prevailing levels of economic uncertainty, it continues to be
deemed prudent to include a further general inflation contingency within the mid-
range and worst case scenarios at £250k and £500k each year respectively.
This contingency will either be required, reduced or removed to reflect changing
circumstances before the 2026-27 budget is set.   
The estimated cumulative inflation over the five years 2026-27 to 2030-31 in the

Page 9

4.4.5
mid-range scenario is outlined in the table below. 
Non-Pay Inflation
(Unavoidable)
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000 
2,745 5,632 8,676 11,890 15,140 
An analysis of the 2026-27 cost estimate in respect of the mid-range scenario
across key inflationary drivers is given in the table below.  The non-pay
inflationary increases relating to Social Work within the Health and Social Care
Partnership are summarised within paragraph 4.6.4. 
Inflation Category 2026-27
Estimate
£000
Premises and Utilities
(Rates, Electricity, Gas, Oil,
Water)
280
Waste/Landfill Tax 335
NPDO/HUB Schools 382
Other Contracted Services 883
Insurance 414
Other Supplies and Services 201
General Contingency 250
Total 2,745 
4.5 Cost and Demand Pressures 
4.5.1 
4.5.2 
For a number of years, services have been required to manage any cost and
demand pressures within current budgetary resources, as far as possible. 
However, there are a number of cost and demand pressures, already identified
for future years, which cannot be contained without a detrimental impact on
service provision.  These continue to be monitored on an ongoing basis and
reported within the Budget Outlook.   
Since last reporting in May, the cost and demand pressures have been updated
to include pressures identified in respect of School Clothing Grants, Schools
Residential expenditure and Microsoft 365 License costs. 
4.5.3  When creating a longer-term budget outlook beyond the current year, there is a
greater risk that currently unforeseen or unquantifiable cost and demand
pressures will emerge across future years.  It is, therefore, deemed prudent to
continue to include a general contingency, proposed at £0.250m, within the best
case, £0.500m within the mid-range and £1m within the worst case scenarios
year on year.  This contingency will either be required, reduced or removed to
reflect changing circumstances before the 2026-27 budget is set.   
4.5.4 The cost and demand pressures within the mid-range scenario are detailed in
Appendix 2 and summarised in the table below.  These will be subject to
ongoing review throughout the financial year.

Page 10

2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
ASN Support 208 422 422 422 422
School Clothing Grants 56 56 56 56 56
Schools Residential 800 800 800 800 800
Education ICT Network
Infrastructure
0 53 53 53 53
Election costs 0 350 0 0 0
Planning (Local
Development Plan)
50 0 0 0 0
Universal Credit – HB
Admin Grant
40 80 120 160 200
Civica Revenue and
Benefits System
0 63 63 63 63
Migration from Skype for
Business to Teams
Telephony
63 300 300 300 300
Microsoft 365 Licenses 30 380 380 380 380
Compliance with BMW
Ban
2,479 3,051 3,051 3,051 3,051
Bus Transport Contracts 268 268 268 268 268
Valuation Joint Board
Requisition
255 301 301 301 301
Allowance for pressures
in future years
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Total Cost and
Demand Pressures
4,749 7,124 7,314 7,854 8,394 
4.5.5 The cost and demand pressures relating to Social Work within the Health and
Social Care Partnership are summarised within paragraph 4.6.4. 
4.6 Health and Social Care Partnership 
4.6.1 
4.6.2
As part of the 2025-26 budget process, indicative base allocations of £85.045m
were agreed for 2026-27 and 2027-28, with future years’ allocations being
subject to Scottish Government grant funding and the council’s overall financial
position. The indicative base allocation for 2026-27 represents an increase of
£3.053m, reflecting the non-recurring saving in relation to the Strathclyde
Pension Fund contribution. 
Since last reporting, the base allocations have been updated to reflect the
impact of the agreed pay award for 2025-26 in respect of Social Work services,
on the planning assumption that these additional costs, estimated at £0.411m,
will be met by the council, with additional Scottish Government grant funding
assumed in this respect.  An update to the allocation in respect of the 2026-27
pay award (estimated at £0.206m), funded by additional Scottish Government
grant funding, has been reflected in the best case scenario only. 
4.6.3 Political decisions will require to be made in respect of the allocation to the

Page 11

Health and Social Care Partnership in future years.  For the purposes of the
Budget Outlook, flat cash allocations, adjusted for the Strathclyde Pension Fund
saving and the 2025-27 pay award, have been assumed across all scenarios. 
These are only indicative planning assumptions and it will be a matter for
Council to consider any changes, as part of the budget process.   
4.6.4 Social Work services have already identified a number of cost and demand
pressures, included within Appendix 3, with the mid-range scenario summarised
below.  These are included for information purposes.  It is expected that the
HSCP will absorb their cost and demand pressures within their funding
allocation.  Note that these only extend to three years rather than the five years
of the council’s Budget Outlook.   
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
Pay Inflation 1,232 2,501 3,809
Pay Increments 198 396 594
Non-Pay Inflation 771 1,570 2,403
Adult Care - Older People 461 930 1,406
Adult Care – Mental Health 76 154 234
Looked After Children 68 137 207
General Contingency 200 400 600
Total Estimated Cost Increases -
Social Work
Cumulative
3,006 6,088 9,253 
4.6.5 
4.6.6 
In addition to the cost and demand pressures outlined above, there will be a
further £3m budget pressure from 2026-27, arising from the non-recurring use of
reserves, as a measure to balance the 2025-26 budget.  This financial outlook is
extremely challenging, particularly given the significant depletion of HSCP
reserve balances as at 31 March 2026.   
The council’s Section 95 Officer sought a financial recovery plan from the IJB,
under the terms of the Integration Scheme, seeking assurance in respect of its
current and future financial position.  This recovery plan has now been approved
by the IJB and reported to Council.  There is a risk to the council in respect of
failure to manage the delivery of Social Work services within available
resources.  Under the terms of the Integration Scheme, any overspend on
Social Work services, which cannot be met from existing reserve balances, may
fall to be met by the council.  In order to safeguard the financial position of the
council, the financial position of the HSCP and related financial risk to the
council will be closely monitored throughout the year.  This will form part of the
regular reporting to Policy and Resources Committee in respect of the current
year revenue budget monitoring and financial risks, as well as future iterations
of this Budget Outlook report. 
4.7 LiveArgyll 
4.7.1 Political decisions will require to be made in respect of the allocation to
LiveArgyll in future years.  For the purposes of the Budget Outlook, flat cash

Page 12

allocations have been assumed across all scenarios, with the exception of
previous budget decisions in respect of the Strathclyde Pension Fund
adjustment relating to the cessation of the one-off employer contribution rate
saving (£0.118m increase) and deferral of the 2025-26 proposed saving in the
service fee to 2026-27 (£311k reduction). These are only indicative planning
assumptions and it will be a matter for Council to consider any changes, as part
of the budget process next year.   
4.8 Estimated Budget Gap PRIOR to Measures to Balance the Budget 
4.8.1 The budget gap in the mid-range scenario over the five years 2026-27 to 2030-
31, after allowing for the considerations outlined above and prior to measures to
balance the budget, is outlined in the table below.  This is the budget gap prior
to factoring in any previous savings decisions or potential options towards
balancing the budget.     
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
Base Budget 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289
Base Budget
Adjustments
75 75 75 75 75
Employee Cost
Changes
15,481 20,858 26,379 32,047 37,868
Non-Pay Inflation 2,745 5,632 8,676 11,890 15,140
Cost and Demand
Pressures
4,749 7,124 7,314 7,854 8,394
Adjustment to HSCP
Payment
3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464
Adjustment to
LiveArgyll Payment 
(193) (193) (193) (193) (193)
Total Estimated Net
Expenditure
354,610 365,249 374,004 383,426 393,037
Estimated Funding 339,252 335,512 335,212 334,916 334,624
Estimated Budget
Surplus / (Gap)
Cumulative 
(15,358)  (29,737)  (38,792)  (48,510)  (58,413) 
4.9  Measures to Balance the Budget 
4.9.1 In 2025-26, a general inflationary increase of 6% was applied to relevant fees
and charges.  For the Budget Outlook, a range of between 3% (worst case) and
9% (best case), with a mid-range of 6% has been assumed each year over the
five years 2026-27 to 2030-31.  As a result of 2025-26 budget decisions taken
by Council on 27 February 2025 to freeze fees on council-run ferries, the
forecast income from fees and charges in future years has been slightly
reduced.  
4.9.2 Some of the management/operational and policy savings options agreed at the
Council meeting on 27 February 2025 and in previous years will impact the
2026-27 and future years budgets.  These are reflected within the Budget

Page 13

Outlook over the five years 2026-27 to 2030-31. 
4.9.3  In terms of Council Tax, a 5% increase has been assumed each year in all
scenarios.  All councils increased their Council Tax by at least 6% for 2025-26,
with 13 increasing their Council Tax by more than 10%.  With a focus on longer
term financial sustainability and in light of the significant forecast budget gap
over the next five years, the level of Council Tax increases in 2026-27 and in
future years will require due consideration by Members, as part of the budget
setting for 2026-27 and future years.    
4.9.4  The table below summarises the proposed measures to balance the budget in
the mid-range scenario. 
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
Fees and Charges
Increase
382 787 1,217 1,672 2,155
Council Tax Increase  3,553 7,319 11,292 15,480 19,897
Management/Operational
Savings 
(48) (9) (9) (9) (9)
Policy Savings  1,012 1,748 2,217 2,331 2,445
Total Measures to
Balance the Budget
4,899 9,845 14,717 19,474 24,488 
4.10 Estimated Budget Gap AFTER Measures to Balance the Budget 
4.10.1 The table below summarises the estimated budget gap in the mid-range
scenario. 
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
Estimated Budget Gap
Prior to Measures to
Balance Budget 
(15,358)  (29,737)  (38,792)  (48,510)  (58,413)
Measures to Balance
Budget
4,899 9,845 14,717 19,474 24,488
Estimated Budget
Surplus / (Gap)
Cumulative 
(10,459)  (19,892)  (24,075)  (29,036)  (33,925)
Estimated Budget
Surplus / (Gap) 
In Year 
(10,459)  (9,433)  (4,183)  (4,961)  (4,889) 
4.10.2 In the mid-range scenario, the budget gap is estimated at £10.459m in 2026-27
and £33.925m over the five year period 2026-27 to 2030-31.   
4.10.3 The budget gap in the best case scenario is estimated at £4.412m in 2026-27
and £10.814m over five years, increasing to £15.584m in 2026-27 and
£65.610m over five years in the worst case scenario.  A summary of all three
scenarios is included within Appendix 1.

Page 14

4.10.4 The changes from the previous Budget Outlook in the mid-range scenario,
reported to the Policy and Resources Committee in May 2025, are summarised
in the table below. 
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
Previously reported
Budget Surplus / (Gap) 
Cumulative
(9,568) (19,735) (23,943) (28,929) (33,846)
Additional Scottish
Government Funding –
2025-26 Pay Award
2,305 2,300 2,294 2,288 2,282
Extended Producer
Responsibility DEFRA
Funding
1,393 1,393 1,393 1,393 1,393
DEFRA 2025-26 Funding
C/fwd Reduction
(1,061)    
Adjustment to Council
Tax Income
528 556 587 618 652
Adjustment to Employee
Costs
(2,759) (2,759) (2,759) (2,759) (2,759)
Additional Cost and
Demand Budget
Pressures
(886) (1,236) (1,236) (1,236) (1,236)
Adjustment to HSCP
Payment
(411) (411) (411) (411) (411)
Revised Budget
Surplus / (Gap) 
Cumulative
(10,459) (19,892) (24,075) (29,036) (33,925) 
5. CONCLUSION 
5.1 In the mid-range scenario, the budget gap is estimated at £10.459m in 2026-27
and £33.925m over the five year period 2026-27 to 2030-31.  Council officers
are continuing to explore budget savings options during 2025-26 and these will
be presented to Members in due course.  
5.2  This is a very challenging Budget Outlook position.  Variations to the
assumptions, particularly in respect of future Scottish Government grant funding
levels, would have a significant impact on the Budget Outlook.  All assumptions
will be kept under review, with the Budget Outlook updated, as and when further
information becomes available.   
6. IMPLICATIONS 
6.1 Policy -  Sets out the Budget Outlook that provides the financial
envelope for policy decisions.
6.2 Financial -  Sets best, worst and mid-range scenarios in respect of
the Budget Outlook.  The council are actively

Page 15

continuing to pursue opportunities to mitigate against
future budget gaps. 
6.3 Legal -  None directly from this report but the Council requires
to set a balanced budget. 
6.4 HR -  None directly from this report but there is a strong link
between employee numbers and budgets.
6.5 
6.6      
Customer Service – 
Risk - 
None directly from this report but any proposals to
address the estimated budget gap will require to
consider customer service.
None directly from this report but any proposals to
address the estimated budget gap will require to
consider risk.
6.7 
6.8 
6.9
Climate Change - 
Fairer Scotland Duty - 
Equalities – protected
characteristics -
The Council is committed to addressing climate change
and reviews how Services are delivering this on an
ongoing basis, within the available budget resources.
None directly from this report but any proposals to
address the estimated budget gap will require to
consider fairer Scotland issues.
None directly from this report but any proposals to
address the estimated budget gap will require to
consider equality issues.
6.10 Consumer Duty - None directly from this report but any proposals to
address the estimated budget gap will require to
consider any consumer specific issues.
6.11 
6.12
Island Communities - 
Children’s Rights and
Wellbeing -
None directly from this report but any proposals to
address the estimated budget gap will require to
consider any island specific issues. 
None directly from this report but any proposals to
address the estimated budget gap will require to
consider any children’s rights and wellbeing specific
issues.   
Kirsty Flanagan
Executive Director/Section 95 Officer
31 July 2025 
Councillor Ross Moreland, Policy Lead for Finance and Commercial Services 
APPENDICES: 
Appendix 1 – Budget Outlook - Best, Worst and Mid-range Scenarios
Appendix 2 – Cost and Demand Pressures (Council Services)
Appendix 3 – Cost and Demand Pressures (Social Work) 
For further information contact Carolyn Earl, Interim Head of Financial Services
Carolyn.earl@argyll-bute.gov.uk

Page 16

BUDGET OUTLOOK 2026-27 to 2030-31 APPENDIX 1
Policy and Resources Committee - 21 August 2025
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
Base Budget 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289 328,289
Base Budget Adjustments 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75
Revised Base Budget 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364 328,364
Pay Award 7,346 12,124 15,405 18,752 22,166 7,346 12,124 17,046 22,115 27,337 7,346 15,353 23,761 32,589 41,859
Full year effect of 2025-26 pay award for teachers in 2026-27 661 661 661 661 661 661 661 661 661 661 661 661 661 661 661
Pay Increments 300 599 899 1,198 1,498 599 1,198 1,797 2,396 2,995 599 1,198 1,797 2,396 2,995
Re-instate Employers Superannuation Rate 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875 6,875
Total Employee Cost Changes (Council Services) 15,182 20,259 23,840 27,486 31,200 15,481 20,858 26,379 32,047 37,868 15,481 24,087 33,094 42,521 52,390
Non-Pay Inflation - Council Services 1,771 4,011 6,381 8,893 11,871 2,745 5,632 8,676 11,890 15,140 3,692 7,259 11,012 14,968 18,968
ASN Support 208 422 422 422 422 208 422 422 422 422 208 422 422 422 422
School Clothing Grants 32 32 32 32 32 56 56 56 56 56 79 79 79 79 79
Schools Residential 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800
Education ICT Network Infrastructure 0 53 53 53 53 0 53 53 53 53 0 53 53 53 53
Election Costs 0 327 0 0 0 0 350 0 0 0 0 370 0 0 0
Planning (Local Development Plan) 50 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0
Housing Benefits Admin Grant 40 80 120 160 200 40 80 120 160 200 40 80 120 160 200
Civica Revenue and Benefits System 0 37 37 37 37 0 63 63 63 63 0 137 137 137 137
Migration from Skype for Business to Teams Telephony 19 282 282 282 282 63 300 300 300 300 108 318 318 318 318
Microsoft 365 Licenses 30 380 380 380 380 30 380 380 380 380 50 400 400 400 400
Compliance with BMW Ban 2,231 2,746 2,746 2,746 2,746 2,479 3,051 3,051 3,051 3,051 2,727 3,356 3,356 3,356 3,356
Bus Transport Contracts 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268
Valuation Joint Board 255 301 301 301 301 255 301 301 301 301 255 301 301 301 301
Allowance for Cost and Demand Pressures Future Years 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Total Cost and Demand Pressures 4,183 6,228 6,191 6,481 6,771 4,749 7,124 7,314 7,854 8,394 5,585 8,584 9,254 10,294 11,334
Adjustment to Health and Social Care Partnership Payment 3,670 3,670 3,670 3,670 3,670 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464 3,464
Adjustment to Live Argyll Management Fee (193) (193) (193) (193) (193) (193) (193) (193) (193) (193) (193) (193) (193) (193) (193)
Total Estimated Expenditure PRIOR to measures to balance the budget 352,977 362,339 368,253 374,701 381,683 354,610 365,249 374,004 383,426 393,037 356,393 371,565 384,995 399,418 414,327
Scottish Government Grant 265,742 266,406 267,072 267,740 268,409 263,363 262,706 262,049 261,394 260,741 262,054 260,089 258,139 256,203 254,281
Packing Extended Producer Responsibility Funding - DEFRA 2,786 2,786 2,786 2,786 2,786 1,393 1,393 1,393 1,393 1,393 0 0 0 0 0
Transfer from Reserves - EPR funding carried forward from 2025-26 1,438 0 0 0 0 1,438 0 0 0 0 1,438 0 0 0 0
Transfer from Reserves - SPF Gain agreed February 2024 2,000 0 0 0 0 2,000 0 0 0 0 2,000 0 0 0 0
Council Tax 71,486 72,022 72,562 73,106 73,654 71,058 71,413 71,770 72,129 72,490 70,630 70,807 70,984 71,161 71,339
Total Funding 343,452 341,214 342,420 343,632 344,849 339,252 335,512 335,212 334,916 334,624 336,122 330,896 329,123 327,364 325,620
Budget Surplus / (Gap) PRIOR to measures to balance the budget (9,524) (21,125) (25,833) (31,069) (36,834) (15,358) (29,737) (38,792) (48,510) (58,413) (20,271) (40,669) (55,872) (72,054) (88,707)
Measures to Balance the Budget:
Fees and Charges 574 1,199 1,880 2,623 3,433 382 787 1,217 1,672 2,155 191 388 591 800 1,015
Council Tax Increase 3,574 7,354 11,350 15,573 20,034 3,553 7,301 11,255 15,424 19,820 3,532 7,249 11,161 15,277 19,608
Council Tax Increase (Growth element) 0 27 55 85 117 0 18 37 56 77 0 9 18 28 38
Policy Savings Agreed Feb 2023 476 1,112 1,581 1,695 1,809 476 1,112 1,581 1,695 1,809 476 1,112 1,581 1,695 1,809
Management/Operational Options Agreed Feb 2025 (48) (9) (9) (9) (9) (48) (9) (9) (9) (9) (48) (9) (9) (9) (9)
Policy Options 2025 536 636 636 636 636 536 636 636 636 636 536 636 636 636 636
Total Measures to Balance the Budget 5,112 10,319 15,493 20,603 26,020 4,899 9,845 14,717 19,474 24,488 4,687 9,385 13,978 18,427 23,097
Budget Surplus / (Gap) Cumulative AFTER measures to balance the budget (4,412) (10,806) (10,340) (10,466) (10,814) (10,459) (19,892) (24,075) (29,036) (33,925) (15,584) (31,284) (41,894) (53,627) (65,610)
Budget Surplus / (Gap) In Year AFTER measures to balance the budget 0 (6,394) 467 (127) (348) (10,459) (9,433) (4,183) (4,961) (4,889) (15,584) (15,700) (10,610) (11,733) (11,983)
Mid-Range ScenarioBest Case Scenario Worst Case Scenario

Page 17

COUNCIL COST AND DEMAND PRESSURES 2026-27 to 2030-31
Department Service Cost/Demand Pressure 2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
Executive Director -
Douglas Hendry
Education The demand for ASN support in Argyll and Bute has continued to grow with a significant increase in, and
early identification of children and young people presenting with complex additional support needs,
including mental health difficulties which manifests often in dysregulated behaviours.  IScottish
Government statistics show that the number of pupils identified with ASN has increased markedly since
2010 and there continue to be year on year increases. These increases are likely due to continue as we see
the impact of the Covid 19 pandemic on children and young people who were born from 2020 onwards
and as we work with partners to streamline assessment processes which help us to understand need more
thoroughly.  Scottish Government statistical datasets show that the percentage of school roll in
mainstream schools of pupils with ASN has increased by approximately 3% year on year.  Within many
authorities, this means increased numbers of children accessing specialist provision. As Argyll and Bute do
not have equitable access to Specialist provision in all areas, the cost pressure associated with offering
appropriate support within our local schools continues to increase in line with need.
208 422 422 422 422 208 422 422 422 422 208 422 422 422 422
Executive Director -
Douglas Hendry
Education Rightsize of School Clothing Grant Budget - Argyll and Bute Council  pay  the national minimum rate for
School Clothing Grants.  The payment is currently £120 for Primary School Children and £150 for
Secondary School children.   Over the past two years the number of clothing grants issued has increased
and left Education with a demand pressure.
32 32 32 32 32 56 56 56 56 56 79 79 79 79 79
Executive Director -
Douglas Hendry
Education Rightsize the Schools Residential Budget - The Education Service contribute 38% towards the cost of 
jointly funded out of area Residential Placements with Social Work contributing 62%.  Education also have
a number of out of area day placements which they pay 100% of the cost.  Over recent years the cost of
these placements has risen significantly due to a reduction in subsidy for Grant Aided Special Schools
(GASS) by the Govenment, along with the increase in demand for these type of placements.  This has led
to a cost pressure of £800k.
800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800 800
Executive Director -
Douglas Hendry and
Kirsty Flanagan
Education and ICT The Education ICT Network required transformative technology upgrade, with improved security and
reconfiguration to support in-school and at home learning, was approved as part of the budget for 2025-
26.  However, the recommended cost plan included additional revenue consequences from 2027-28,
estimated at £53k per annum, in respect of network equipment licencing costs.  
0 53 53 53 53 0 53 53 53 53 0 53 53 53 53
Executive Director -
Douglas Hendry
Legal and Regulatory
Services
Estimated cost (to be borne by the Council)  of carrying out local Government elections in May 2027 (and
in financial year 2027/28). Operating approx. 100 polling stations and carrying out poll and count for 11
Multi member wards – requiring 11 separate counts
0 327 0 0 0 0 350 0 0 0 0 370 0 0 0
Executive Director -
Kirsty Flanagan
Development &
Economic Growth
Local development plan will require to be done under the new Planning legislation which is a revised
process from the current one and will have a 10 year life. The new process has 2 stages where there is
likely to be a cost pressure - a gate check followed by an examination some time later.
50 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0
Executive Director -
Kirsty Flanagan
Financial Services Universal Credit “Full” Service went live in Sept 2018, managed migration for working age claimants began
in August 2023 and will be completed by December 2025. Details of the migration of Pension age Housing
Benefit claimants have not yet been released initial indications was that the overall migration to Pension
Credit will be completed in 2028/2029 although that looks unlikely now. The DWP will reduce the Housing
Benefit Administration Subsidy they pay to the Council as some claimants come off of Housing Benefit
processed by Council staff and go onto Universal Credit processed by the DWP.  The Council’s caseload has
reduced since implementation of Universal Credit but it is hard to predict just how quickly the rest of the
caseload will migrate from Housing Benefit to Universal Credit between now and 2028/2029.  These
figures represent our best estimates at this time.
40 80 120 160 200 40 80 120 160 200 40 80 120 160 200
Executive Director -
Kirsty Flanagan
Financial Services The Council has been engaged in discussions with the supplier of the Revenues and Benefits Management
System and also the Electronic Document Management System.  We expect cost increases in the future as
the supplier moves the systems to the Cloud.  The cost presure is an estimate at this time and will be
refined as we get nearer to 2027-28.
0 37 37 37 37 0 63 63 63 63 0 137 137 137 137
Executive Director -
Kirsty Flanagan
ICT Migration from Skype for Business to Teams Telephony to ensure those staff who need to make and
receive external calls can do so. This was agreed at Policy & Resources Committee on 15 August.
19 282 282 282 282 63 300 300 300 300 108 318 318 318 318
Executive Director -
Kirsty Flanagan
ICT Microsoft 365 License Costs.  An earmarked reserve, set up to contribute towards the  licensing and set-up
costs for the Microsoft 365 rollout, is projected to be fully depleted during 2026-27, with an estimated
budget pressure of £30k in 2026-27, increasing to £380k in 2027-28.  These estimates are subject to
change, should licence upgrades be required for Power BI or Teams Telephony. 
30 380 380 380 380 30 380 380 380 380 50 400 400 400 400
Executive Director -
Kirsty Flanagan
Roads & Infrastructure
Services
Achieving compliance with ban on biodegradable municipal waste (BMW) which comes into place on 1
January 2026.  The costs are the best estimates at this stage and consultants have assisted in producing
the estimates.  The best case and worst case scenarios are based on the mid-range with a +/- 10% change
2,231 2,746 2,746 2,746 2,746 2,479 3,051 3,051 3,051 3,051 2,727 3,356 3,356 3,356 3,356
Best Case Mid-Range Worst Case
APPENDIX 2

Page 18

COUNCIL COST AND DEMAND PRESSURES 2026-27 to 2030-31
Department Service Cost/Demand Pressure 2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2029-30
£000
2030-31
£000
Best Case Mid-Range Worst Case
APPENDIX 2
Executive Director -
Kirsty Flanagan
Roads & Infrastructure
Services
Bus Transport contracts have seen a siginificant increase in new contract prices due to increased costs for
fuel, insurance, maintenance, regualtory compliance and driver wages.  New contracts have seen a
combined annual increase of £975k across Argyll and Bute during 2024-25 with further contract renewals
due in 2025-26.   The cost pressure is the best estimate of future renewals and expected increases.  An
options appraisal is currently being carried out to assess the best and most cost effective solution for
future delivery of the school and public transport service.
268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268 268
Council Wide Council Wide A letter from the Dunbartonshire and Argyll and Bute Valuation Joint Board was received on 30 January
2025 advising of the financial challenges facing the Board and the estimated 2025-26 to 2027-28 budget
gaps along with a request to increase the level of contribution that we make to the Board.  Since 2012-13
the core constituent funding to the Board has either reduced or been flast cash for the past 7 years with
the Board heavily reliant on reserves.  As the reserves will be fully depleted by 2025-26 there is a required
for the requisitions to increase.
255 301 301 301 301 255 301 301 301 301 255 301 301 301 301
Council Wide Council Wide General provision for unidentified Cost and Demand Pressures 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
TOTAL 4,183 6,228 6,191 6,481 6,771 4,749 7,124 7,314 7,854 8,394 5,585 8,584 9,254 10,294 11,334

Page 19

Classification: OFFICIAL#
SOCIAL WORK COST AND DEMAND PRESSURES - 2026-27 to 2028-29
Service Cost/Demand Pressure 2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
2026-27
£000
2027-28
£000
2028-29
£000
All Social Work Estimated Pay inflation reflecting a best case at 3% up to 2027/28
reflecting the Scottish Government Public Sector Pay Policy before
reducing to 2% in 2028/29, a mid-range of 3%  and a worst case of 5%.
Adjusted for the impact of the increase in the employer's pension
contribution rate from 6.5% to 17.5% in 2026/27.
1,232 2,501 3,373 1,232 2,501 3,809 2,054 4,210 6,474
All Social Work Estimated Pay increments, best case is that 50% of the incremental
changes based on 2025/26 are absorbed and in the mid-range and worst
case, the increase is in line with the increase in 2025/26.
99 198 297 198 396 594 198 396 594
All Social Work Inescapable non-pay inflation across a range of activities and activity
specific inflation rates with a 0.5% tolerance for the best and worst cases.
541 1,102 1,680 681 1,388 2,126 817 1,675 2,577
All Social Work Non-pay inflation impact of payroll inflation on NHS posts which are
recharged to Social Work.
75 151 230 90 182 277 104 213 325
Adult Care Older People Demand Growth: The number of older people is increasing
and older people are living longer with significant health and support
needs and significant expectations of the support they are entitled to
receive. Best case assumes that this will be offset by efficiency
improvement and increasing unmet need / demand. The mid range allows
for a 1.5% increase each year. Worst case is 3% per year on the older
adult services budget.
0 0 0 461 930 1,406 923 1,875 2,856
Adult Care Mental Health Demand Growth - As above, services operating within
budget overall. The best case assumes a 0% increase in spending
reflecting the limited service capacity in the area, the mid-range reflects
2% growth in 26/27 and 27/28 and the worst case reflects 3% growth.
0 0 0 76 154 234 115 233 355
Children and
Families
Looked After Children Demand Growth - there is a continuing demand for
placements of children who are cared for by the HSCP. The best case
scenario is that the expected additional demand can be funded from
within existing resources as a result of planned improvements to the
service delivery model (eg shift away from high cost external residential
care to local foster and kinship care), the mid case reflects that additional
demand in 26/27 be funded from existing resource with £250k per annum
thereafter and the worst case reflects £250k per annum.
34 68 102 68 137 207 101 206 314
All Social Work Allowance for unknown cost and demand pressures which could arise. Per
James Gow this is to reduce to £200k pa
0 0 0 200 400 600 200 400 600
TOTAL UNFUNDED COST AND DEMAND PRESSURES 1,981 4,020 5,682 3,006 6,088 9,253 4,512 9,208 14,095
Worst CaseMid RangeBest Case