Supplementary Pack 1
Argyll and Bute Council · 7 May 2025
Back to Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands Area Community Planning Group — 7 May 2025 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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Kilmory, Lochgilphead, PA31 8RT Tel: 01546 602127 Fax: 01546 604435 DX 599700 LOCHGILPHEAD 2 May 2025 SUPPLEMENTARY PACK 1 MID ARGYLL, KINTYRE AND THE ISLANDS AREA COMMUNITY PLANNING GROUP - ON A HYBRID BASIS IN THE TEMPLAR ARTS AND LEISURE CENTRE, TARBERT AND BY MICROSOFT TEAMS on WEDNESDAY, 7 MAY 2025 at 10:00 AM. I enclose herewith item 7(a) (Police Scotland Update) which was marked to follow and item 7(l) (Argyll and Bute Citizens Advice Bureau Update) and item 8(c) (Argyll and Bute Climate Action: developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute) which were not included on the Agenda for the above meeting ITEM TO FOLLOW AND ADDITIONAL ITEMS 7. PARTNER UPDATES (a) Police Scotland Update (Pages 3 - 10) (l) Argyll and Bute Citizens Advice Bureau Update (Pages 11 - 14) 8. CLIMATE CHANGE (c) Argyll and Bute Climate Action: developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute (Pages 15 - 72) Presentation by Climate Change Project Manager, Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands Area Community Planning Group Ian Brodie (Vice-Chair) Councillor Anne Horn (Chair) Contact: Julieann Small, Democratic Services Assistant - 01546 604043 Public Document Pack
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OFFICIAL Page 1 of 7 OFFICIAL Area Planning Group Report for Oban, Lorn, Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands May 2025 Local Policing Priority What does this mean for your area? How can you help? In tackling Serious & Organised Crime benchmarks are not straight forward. The nature of the crime type is such that we often see the symptom rather than the cause, i.e. an increase in acquisitive crime if heroin were to become a problem in an area, or an increase in Serious Assaults if rival criminal factions are in dispute. The start to the year has been steady with 19 people prosecuted for possession of a controlled substance to date, but no one currently prosecuted for Supply. That said, I am aware of a number of investigations where we are working closely with other divisions in capturing and arresting criminals visiting our area, who have subsequently been prosecuted by these divisions. At the time of writing a proactive stop led to the arrest in MAKI of a person wanted for drug supply in another part of Scotland, found in possession of £2500. This money was seized. Your officers continue to undertake proactive patrols to identify and intercept those that might move and supply drugs. I am happy to report that we are yet to have any Serious Assaults recorded so far this year. This is unusual when compared against the 5-year average for our Policing area. However, with Summer demand, we are liable to see an inevitable increase as visitors to the area increase and nighttime economy incidents increase. Your local police request your help in tackling Drug related crime by reporting any suspicions you may have either in person or anonymously via 101 or via crime stoppers online: Crimestoppers in Scotland | Crimestoppers (crimestoppers-uk.org) 0800 555 111 We rely on communities to provide us with the information that helps us tackle organised crime. Your intelligence is essential in securing warrants. Please, if you see, hear or suspect something, link with us directly or use the above information to voice your concerns. As you can see, your inputs help us take action. Page 3 Agenda Item 7a
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OFFICIAL Page 2 of 7 OFFICIAL Acquisitive Crime encompasses all Theft type crimes, including Housebreaking and Frauds. Crimes such as shoplifting sprees or a series of sheds being broken into can quickly distort figures and risk when analysing this group. Generally, the start of the year has seen a decerease in most crime types related to acquistive cirme, i.e. shop theft down by 64%. The exceptions to this involve Fraud, with an increase of 45% on the start of the year. These primarily relate to isolated incidents, normally involving buying and selling on Facebook Market Place. Where buying things online we recommend to make as many checks as you can and use methods of payment which are protected against Fraud. Other areas of risk involve people investing in Cryptocurrenty online. We have also seen two incidents of people entering buildings with intent to steal, but these have been derelict buildings, in areas that are not populated. The investigation into these incidents remains ongoing. They are believed to be unique in nature and are not recognised as part of a wider pattern. Your local police wants members of the APGs to help us by following us on our social media channels to help us spread crime prevention advice and guidance. Fraud Seminars can be provided by the Community Engagement team should you wish. Contact PS Alison who will pass your details on to the relevant team. Read tips on Argyll & Bute’s Trading Standards Website on practice to protect yourself from the activity of Rogue Traders. There are many strands to understanding road safety, from the amount of crimes, to the amount of accidents and injuries that occur upon our network. Police Scotland are one of many partner agencies that contribute to trying to improve the safety of local infrastructure. Our Response Officers and Road Policing Units continue to work hard to improve the safety of the road network by identifying and prosecuting those users committing offences. As such we have seen a general increase for the You can help your local Police by reporting anyone who is suspected of drink or drug driving within your community either in person, via 101 or via crime stoppers online: Crimestoppers in Scotland | Crimestoppers (crimestoppers-uk.org) 0800 555 111 We are finding a trend where we are receiving feedback from partners and Community Councils of problematic driving standards ‘after Page 4
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OFFICIAL Page 3 of 7 OFFICIAL same period of last year of 39% for recorded offences. The offences leading the increase in recording are primarily Careless Driving, i.e. dangerous overtakes and vehicle defects, i.e. bald tyres. Again, drink and drug driving continues to be a blight on our communities with an 8.3% increase from last year. We continue to see the impact of this on communities and families of those affected. We can only ask that the community report any incidents as they occur so that we can help prevent tragedies from occurring. Only yesterday (30th April) Police responded to a person drifting over the white lines, causing danger to oncoming traffic and intercepted a person who appeared under the influence of drugs/alcohol (this case is ongoing). By people contacting us, we were able to prevent an accident and make both the driver and other road users safe. We cannot make a change in culture without the community’s support. the offending is occurring’. It is really important that Police are called at the time of the offending so we can catch the behaviour taking place. This helps us provide key evidence to take action and prosecute offending. It is also noted that people wish to remain anonymous in reports. Whilst this is a way to report, this does make the role of prosecuting offenders harder for Police. Where communities stand together to say know to certain crime types, we can make a real difference. Violent Crime covers a range of offences from Stalking, Assaults, Domestic Abuse through to the worst offence of Murder. Violent crime has remained reasonable stable, with only a 5% increase on figures for the year to date. The increase is down to a slight increase in Common Assaults (3 more than last year for the same period). Though we have seen a welcome decrease in emergency workers being attacked (this includes ambulance/hospital staff and police), dropping by 87% for this year to date. Please help us tackle Violent Crime by reporting any ASB or community concerns either in person via 101 or via crime stoppers online: Crimestoppers in Scotland | Crimestoppers (crimestoppers-uk.org) 0800 555 111 As APG members, if you have identified problem areas, ASB hotspots, or licencees that are not acting in a responsible way, please link with us to advise of the problem. We can set up bespoke patrols and use our powers under Licensing Laws to ensure responsible practice. Page 5
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OFFICIAL Page 4 of 7 OFFICIAL However, threatening and abusive behaviour has seen an increase for the year to date, with incidents increasing 176%. There is no real pattern as to why this increase has occurred, but the crime type is one that normally occurs in the evenings and after the people committing the offence have ingested some form of intoxicant. Again, there is no clear demographic that is our main offender with this crime type, with varying ages and genders partaking in the offence. The sooner we are informed about an issue the less chance there is that it grows into an enduring community issue. This area of public protection spans a number of traditional crime types, including Child Protection, to crimes under Sexual Offences legislation. In the first quarter of this year a large amount of time and resource was put into the trying to locate a high-risk missing person on the Isle of Mull, Ms Clare Halliday. It is with regret that we have still been unable to locate her to date, but the investigation continues unbated, though scaled back. We’d like to thank the communities of Fionnphort and Iona for their help during this enquiry. They will have been aware of the Polcie Scotland Air Support Unit undertaking further coastline searches during the w/c 26th April. For the year to date I am pleased to advise that we have seen an 8% decrease in crimes related to this field of policing. Whilst we have had 4 rapes reported for the year to date (2 more than usual), all but one were in the context of relationships. With the one rape that was outside of the context, the parties were known to one another and the suspect quickly located by Police. There is no wider threat to the general public. Members of the APG can help us by reporting any concerns you may have regarding potential victims of Domestic Abuse or vulnerable persons, who may be being exploited or who may just need additional crime prevention support. Again, this can be reported through the channels previously discussed, but where serious safety concerns are present, better outcomes are achieved by in person reporting so we can properly understand the risks present. Page 6
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OFFICIAL Page 5 of 7 OFFICIAL Other relevant news from your local policing teams Community Council Reports: In the past couple of months there has been heighted engagement regarding the format of the monthly Community Council Reports, with some wishing for more bespoke localised reports. This continues to be a regular communication. In response to this, we will split the current report into 4: one for the OLI island framework, one for MAKI island framework, one for MAKI mainland and one for OLI mainland. Where time permits good news stories from these locations will be reviewed. It is important to realise that the officers producing these have many other responsibilities that include safeguarding members of our communities. These reports take time and whilst we want to communicate well with our communities, the reports, which are not statutory, have limited impact on positive outcomes for communities, compared to our other targeted work. That is why this work will always be prioritised and the reports will not be broken down more, as it would currently create too much burden on officers, diverting them away from essential work streams. We have previously discussed in this forum about what is done with the data provided – if nothing is done to progress community safety/policing priorities and the information requested is purely for interest, we are not fulfilling our obligations under the Data Protection act as a Data Controller by releasing it. Further, I have previously articulated the risk of identifying victims of crime in small communities, which is unacceptable, and reduces trust in Polcie and reduces reporting when it occurs. That risk remains and more finite reports open up that unacceptable outcome occurring. Again, should communities have set data work they wish reviewed, we will undertake it, as long as there is a legitimate Policing related purpose behind it, i.e. to support Neighbourhood/Farm Watch research, to identify a suspected crime pattern etc. Islay Antisocial Driving: We have received a number of reports regarding anti-social driving on Islay. Initially this was only from third party reports, but we are now getting members of the public phone the Police, which is welcomed. The area management team is reviewing efforts to get dedicated Road Policing Operations on the island to help support the island officers in tackling this problem. CCTV options have been reviewed with the Council and discussions remain ongoing to tackle this issue Drug Concerns: Concerns have been raised regarding drug activity in Campbeltown and the impact that is having on part of the community down there. Please allow me to assure those present that we are fully aware and working on the issues that this ongoing complex situation is producing. Your uniformed officers that patrol the streets are working closely with the division’s CID teams to identify, frustrate and prosecute drug supply and the knock-on impacts of this crime type. Divisional Commander Visits: Chief Supt Gary I’Anson has been visiting our area, undertaking island visits and key settlements, meeting with stakeholders. This hands-on approach has led to informed divisional Page 7
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OFFICIAL Page 6 of 7 OFFICIAL management. What does that mean for you? It means staffing and logistics of the current Police infrastructure is being reviewed on how to increase effectiveness. Area Commander Lee Page is working closely with the Chief Supt to review how the future of policing in OLI and MAKI might look and take shape. Where appropriate, engagement with stakeholders will occur. We will continue to update you as this develops. Youth Engagement Officers (YEO): Following on from the success of the Oban YEO, we have now recruited YEOs for both Campbeltown and Lochgilphead. We are looking to have them in place and operational by the start of the new school year. The vision is that the 3 YEOs will work as a team to help support the develop of the young in our area, working in tandem with schools and support/youth groups across OLI and MAKI. They will also support the ongoing Planet Youth work that is being undertaken in Lochgilphead and Oban. In analysing the demand within our policing area it has been determined that a large number of calls stem from residents not knowing which agency they should contact, resulting in linking with the Police as the agency of last resort. The below links are to help channel enquiries to the correct agencies: Useful Links/Contacts: • Argyll and Bute Communtiy Directory - https://abcd.scot/ - this excellent site signposts you to all available services in your area, be it advocacy, counselling, debt advice or animal welfare; • Crimestoppers – Crimestoppers in Scotland | Crimestoppers (crimestoppers-uk.org) 0800 555 111 • Scottish Partnership Against Rural Crime – www.scottishparc.co.uk • Women’s Aid - Home - Women's Aid (womensaid.org.uk) • Citizens Advice – 0808 164 6000 & https://www.abcab.org.uk/ - Argyll and Bute Citizens Advice Bureau is a local, independent charity which provides free, impartial and confidential advice and information to give you the tools you need to sort out any issues or problems; • Argyll and Bute Council Trading Standards – 01546 605 519 • Argyll and Bute Council – https://www.argyll-bute.gov.uk/my-council/how-contact-us • Transport Scotland – road related incidents and road closures - https://www.traffic.gov.scot/traffic-information/incidents • Scottish Water - https://www.scottishwater.co.uk/Help-and-Resources/Contact-Us 0800 0778 778 • NHS24 (including mental health support) – 111 or https://www.nhsinform.scot/ • Scam Share Bulletin Trading Standards Scotland Bulletin 6 June (mailchi.mp) • Age Scotland- Demetia Information and help- https://www.agescotland.org.uk/ • Neighbourhood Watch - sign up to to receive local alerts and bulletins for your community area - https://neighbourhoodwatchscotland.co.uk/#0 Page 8
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OFFICIAL Page 7 of 7 OFFICIAL • Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) - https://www.sepa.org.uk/ - for pollution, environmental safety, flooding, waste disposal/carrying enquiries Follow us on Social Media and help share local appeals and education messages: • Facebook - Police Scotland Argyll and West Dunbartonshire • X (formerly Twitter) – PSOSArgyllBute and PSOS ArgWestDunb Report Completed by Insp Matthew Shaw on behalf of Area Commander Chief Insp Lee Page Email Address Matthew.shaw@scotland.police.uk Page 9
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Argyll & Bute Citizens Advice Bureau Community Planning Partnerships Update May 2025 Figure 1: Advice areas Feb, March April 2025 Figure 2: Advice areas April 2025-March 2025 The Bureau has continued to remain busy with a wide area of advice provision, benefits advice provision accounts for approximately 36-39% of all level 1 advice. Over the last quarter we Page 11 Agenda Item 7l
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supported 638 clients and provided 3295 distinct pieces of advice. Our client financial gain for this period is £388,715 for just over half of all overall clients accounting for an average of £1101 per eligible client. Debt advice has risen by 170% if we compare the last quarter with the same period last year, from 110 advice codes to 292, and debt clients have increased by 35%, demonstrating the complexity and higher prevalence of debt as a result of the increased cost of living across Argyll & Bute. The Bureau continues to collaborate with the LA with council tax debt advice and will support vulnerable clients to have a moratorium placed on their account while we work to gather relevant information to ensure all entitlements are in place. Over the course of 2024/25 the Bureau supported 1962 clients with 12,374 pieces of advice. Again benefits advice provision was the highest area of advice, accounting for 39% of all level 1 advice codes. Our advisers which consist in the main of volunteer advisers supported 1506 (or 77% of all) clients across the whole of Argyll & Bute to realise £2,015,347 in client financial gain, an average of £1,338 per eligible client. Volunteer recruitment As a partner organisation within the council’s Community Learning Partnership, we are delighted to have recruited our 21st volunteer adviser. Our in-house training development officer is supporting our latest cohort of volunteer advisers to complete the accredited adviser training program. Our next intake of trainees will be later this year and we ask colleagues to note this when speaking to members of the public and elsewhere as an extremely good opportunity to effect positive change in an ever complex world. Services with the Bureau Welfare Rights – support with all benefits issues including completing applications, submitting mandatory reconsideration requests and representation at tribunal/appeals. Housing Debt – support for people in housing arrears or facing debts that threaten tenure retention. FCA regulated support to address debts and seek free solutions includes court representation where required. Energy efficiency and debt support – Support to negotiate with Suppliers, seek debt reduction, change tariffs, submit complaints to suppliers and Ombudsman. Armed Services Advice Project, following the Royal British Legion withdrawing funding for holistic advice provision in Scotland the Bureau was successful in obtaining funding via the Veterans Foundation to continue supporting our armed services communities across Argyll & Bute. Patient Advice Support Service – We provide statutory advice on patient rights, complaints to GP’s, Health & Social Care Partnership, and can support submissions to the Scottish Public Services Ombudsman. Page 12
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Money Talks – Income maximisation project looking to reduce costs, increase income through benefits entitlements and address low persistent debt. Clients can self-select areas of advice and support online https://www.moneytalkteam.org.uk/find-information Unpaid Carers Money & Welfare. – This is a new project funded provision of holistic advice to carers across Argyll & Bute. Support to access increase precarious income, care, raise issues, complete applications for Power of Attorney etc, address financial supports and access benefits. Generalist advice on Housing, Employment relationship, court processes, parking charge notices and neighbour disputes. Outreach Locations Bute & Cowal Dunoon [Food bank, Crossroads Carers (unpaid carers only) and JC+] Oban Lorn & the Isles Oban [Hope Kitchen, Carr Gomm, North Argyll Carers Centre (unpaid carers only) the Toy Library and JC+] Tiree Community Development Trust MAKI Campbeltown JC+, Dochas Carers Centre (unpaid carers only) Helensburgh & Lomond Helensburgh Carers Centre (unpaid carers only) Page 13
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Date: 30 April 2025 Argyll and Bute Climate Action: developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. 1.0 Purpose The purpose of this report is report is to provide an update on the Community Planning Partnership’s climate change strategy and to ask the ACPG for any further recommendations on groups to engage with to inform further development of the action plan. 2.0 Recommendations The CPG is asked to note the approach and status of the project outlined in the report and to provide any comments or feedback to the project manager. 3.0 Background The CPP’s Climate Change Working Group is producing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust (ACT) are the employing body for the Climate Change Project Manager leading on the process, and the post (0.8 FTE) is funded by the CPP from end October 2023 to October 2025. This update sets out the current position. 4.0 Detail 4.1 Progress 4.1.1 Strategy The draft strategy was presented to the Climate Change Working Group, the CPP Full Partnership and Area CPGs over September to April 2025, with requests for feedback and comments including appropriate engagement opportunities. Based on the feedback received, the updated strategy was submitted to the CPP Management Committee and formally approved in April 2025. A copy of the strategy submitted to the Management Committee accompanies this set of papers, with the final version and appendices to be published on the CPP web pages. Page 15 Agenda Item 8c
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The strategy emphasises action on six key areas identified as being those most within the CPP’s ability to control or influence: o Infrastructure (including natural infrastructure) o Policy Influence o Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain o Resilience/Carbon Literacy o Risk Assessment o Crosscutting/Other Based upon feedback from communities and stakeholders, particularly in the wake of Storm Eowyn, the CPP Management Committee agreed that Resilience should be foremost among these. 4.1.2 Action Plan This was accompanied by an outline action plan, reviewed by two sessions of the Climate Change Working Group, also based around the six areas of action and using layout and structure similar to a range of action plans currently in place among CPP member organisations. A copy of the paper submitted to the Management Committee accompanies this set of papers. The Management Committee agreed that with the emphasis of the project for the remainder of the funded period should be to continue to work up the action plan and pilot projects. Further input at Area level on groups to engage with to inform further development of the Action Plan would be especially useful and the project officer would any further suggestions or recommendations on the most appropriate groups to contact, particularly with regard to community resilience. 4.1.3 Community Resilience The Management Committee noted views from participants, including Area CPGs, around the importance of community resilience and agreed that the project officer should emphasise activity around resilience, including support on climate change dimensions to community resilience plans. The Management Committee also noted feedback that engaging directly with communities such as via Community Councils to develop climate risk assessments to inform community resilience plans would likely represent better value for money with the budget available than seeking to commission a “top down” climate change risk assessment from the leading consultants in the field. 4.1.4 Legacy The Management Committee asked the Steering Group to consider the potential for use of any unsent budget to undertake further risk assessment and associated work Page 16
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around resilience beyond the end of October (ie beyond the current funded period), for the Management Committee to approve or otherwise at its meeting on 6 June. The Management Committee also asked the Steering Group to develop an outline proposal for a partnership project to take forward joint actions, also to consider on 6 June, including what future financial contribution CPP partners might make. An approach has been suggested in anticipation of eg successor to Lottery Climate Action Fund for formal partnerships, working across sectors, c£0.5-£1.5m over 3-5 years. 4.2 Next Steps Immediate next steps are: • Ongoing engagement at all levels, including Areas • Legacy proposals for Management Committee 6 June • Ongoing development of action plan • Support community resilience and risk assessments Andy Macpherson, Climate Change Project Manager For more information, please contact: Andy Macpherson andy@act-now.org.uk Page 17
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A climate change strategy for Argyll & Bute Argyll & Bute Climate Action 1 Page 19
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Contents Executive Summary............................................................................................................................3 1. What does climate change mean for Argyll and Bute? Identifying risks and impacts......8 1.1 Hotter, drier summers............................................................................................................9 1.2 Warmer, wetter winters........................................................................................................10 1.3 More severe weather events, and more variability.........................................................11 1.4 Sea level rise...........................................................................................................................13 2. Scoping Risk...................................................................................................................................14 3. Identifying the actions that will address them.......................................................................17 3.1 Mitigation to reduce our climate change gas emissions: Climate Friendly................17 3.2 Adaptation to unavoidable impacts of climate change: Climate Ready.....................23 3.3 Engagement: Climate Just...................................................................................................27 4. Vision, outcomes and objectives..............................................................................................29 5. Identifying opportunity areas for action.................................................................................31 5.1 Infrastructure.........................................................................................................................33 5.2 Policy Influence.....................................................................................................................34 5.3 Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain .............................................................................34 5.4 Risk Assessment....................................................................................................................35 5.5 Resilience/Carbon Literacy.................................................................................................36 5.6 Crosscutting/Other...............................................................................................................36 6. Monitoring, Reporting and Evaluation.....................................................................................36 2 Page 20
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Executive Summary Climate change is one of the most serious threats that we face in Scotland. Rising temperatures, drier summers, wetter winters, sea level rise, and an increased risk of flooding, will all affect our lives. There is a global need to take action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions which are responsible, but changes in climate will not be completely eliminated by these actions. We also need to find ways of adapting to the effects of climate change. We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate. It has been developed through an engagement process managed by the Argyll Countryside Trust (ACT) on behalf of Argyll & Bute’s Community Planning Partnership Climate Working Group, with thanks to Argyll and Bute Council, NHS Highland, NatureScot and Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface for funding support and the Steering Group comprising volunteers from the Climate Working Group for further support. It links to Argyll & Bute’s Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024 – 2034 which focusses on improving the outcomes of Transport, Housing and Community Wellbeing. This is a strategy and action plan for Argyll & Bute. A region wide, community led, net-zero, climate change resilient, adaptation plan, in support of the vision that: 1 2 3 Argyll and the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust Community planning | Argyll and Bute Council Argyll and Bute Outcomes Improvement Plan 2024-2034 | Argyll and Bute Council 1 2 3 3 Page 21
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The heavy rain in early October 2023 caused £15m damage to transport infrastructure (mainly roads and bridges) in parts of Argyll & Bute Now and into the future, we want a thriving Argyll & Bute where our collective choices and actions enhance our continued wellbeing in a changing climate. Our climate change strategy seeks to tackle climate change, by working together to be: Climate Friendly: Reduce Argyll & Bute’s greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change (mitigation) Climate Ready: Resilient and adapted to unavoidable climate change (adaptation), and Climate Just: Ensure all of our communities are included (engagement). Sea level rise and coastal impacts are a concern. 80% of the population of Argyll & Bute lives within 1km of the coast (97% within 10km of coast), and we have over 200km of road within 25m of the sea (at high tide). 4 Page 22
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Climate Risk Impact Warmer, wetter winters: Increased rainfall volume and intensity Increased landslides, flooded water courses and more surface water Hotter, drier summers: higher average and higher peak temperatures, increased heatwave frequency and longer drought periods Higher risk of human and animal heat stress, illness and mortality, crop failure, wildfires and freshwater scarcity More severe, and more variable weather events: Less predictable but more frequent storms, increased variability in wind speed and direction, higher peak wind speeds, higher rainfall intensity Windblow, forest damage, road blockage, power line damage/power cuts, property damage, flooding, landslides Sea level rise and storm surges: increased coastal erosion Coastal infrastructure damage and loss, coastal retreat or protection cost Multi-hazards affecting people, species and habitats: Combination of hazards compounding climate risks and impacts Single actions less likely to address mitigation or adaptation. Solutions needs to maximise multiple benefits and work with natural processes Increased climate unpredictability Climate forecasts less predictable, actions need to be based on worst-case scenarios, resilience more dependent on agile and diverse actions Our strategy identifies the key climate risks impacting on Argyll & Bute and the areas in which we can take action to address them: 5 Page 23
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Areas for Action Infrastructure Addressing demand and impacts of better transport infrastructure to reduce reliance on private cars and provide for those who do not have a car; enhancing communications and grid infrastructure through maximising decarbonisation and renewable energy opportunities; natural capital: managing our green and blue infrastructure to reduce emissions and support resilience. Policy Influence Influencing national and regional public and non-public policies through the CPP’s collective voice in a way that recognises Argyll & Bute's distinctive geography and population. Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain Increasing opportunities for individuals to gain the skills required to deliver climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Promoting opportunities for climate mitigation, adaptation and community wealth building through improving circular economies within Argyll & Bute. Risk Assessment Deepening our understanding of the risks and opportunities, including economic risks and opportunities, presented by climate change to Argyll and Bute as a whole and to specific communities and sectors. Resilience/Carbon Literacy Promoting carbon literacy and greater resilience, across all CPP sectors to empower individuals to bring about climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Crosscutting/Other Encourage individuals, communities and agencies to take multiple actions and to identify new risks and opportunities. With fuel poverty nearly 50% higher than the Scottish average, and higher again in more rural areas, and private water supplies ten times the national average, our housing is largely insufficient to cope with our current climate and even less with the greater weather extremes forecast. Areas for action closest to the CPP’s remit and ability to control or influence: 6 Page 24
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The principles and approach guiding the Strategy are: An enabling strategy, rather than creating new duties or replacing existing ones, it identifies gaps and opportunities, especially those made possible by working together. Alignment with the CPP priorities of Transport Infrastructure, Housing and Community Wellbeing, which in turn are aligned to requirements in our national climate programmes. Embracing diversity, to recognise significant variation among our communities, places and landscapes, and that we are being affected by climate change in multiple ways. Focussing on common challenges across the region, such as the length and vulnerability of transport links, and our low population density that can make it harder to secure funding. Adapting as we build our understanding of the risks and opportunities we face, taking into account local knowledge and also local variations and capacity to adapt. In addition to incremental steps to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and transitional steps to enhance our capacity to adapt, there is also a transformational component: as we improve our ability to cope with climate needs we also improve our current circumstances. An example of this sort of transformational change is the importance of developing our local economy through developing appropriate local skills, produce and markets and the housing, energy and other infrastructure to support them. This reduces our transport and waste emissions at the same time as reducing our dependence on vulnerable, extended transport links and enables us to add value locally and reduce economic leakage, at the same time as supporting transformational growth sectors such as energy and valuing our natural capital. Engaging communities through networks of community champions linked to Climate Hubs centred on the four Argyll & Bute administrative areas. Developing resilience by developing skills and capacity to adapt to ongoing change alongside longer term transformational capital projects. Ensuring a socially just transition to a climate ready future: as we prepare for the impacts of the changing climate we do so in ways that are fair and tackle inequality. For more information please contact Andy Macpherson Climate Change Project Manager Argyll Countryside Trust andy@act-now.org.uk act-now.org.uk/cpp 4 ACT Now | Argyll and the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust4 7 Page 25
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1. What does climate change mean for Argyll and Bute? Identifying risks and impacts In short, the outlook for Argyll and Bute is overall increasing temperatures, with Hotter, drier summers Warmer, wetter winters More severe weather events, and more variability Sea level rise There are some common challenges across the region but there is also significant variation within and between communities, places and landscapes. More detailed information based on climate projections for 16 settlements across Argyll and Bute is in Appendix 1 and 2. The region’s characterising features of high geographical diversity, low population density, long coastlines, largely rural small, isolated and ageing communities and long distances all impact on considerations of what “good” climate action means for Argyll and Bute. However, we also have urban considerations with our largest single centre of population being Helensburgh, and other important settlements with urban issues but rural supply chains and correspondingly long and vulnerable transport and other communications links. 8 Page 26
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1.1 Hotter, drier summers Individual seasons vary and the cold and wet summer 2024 is in stark contrast to the hot, dry conditions prevailing in recent summers. Below we see summer temperatures for the overall Argyll River Basin area, which approximates closely to the overall Argyll and Bute area, with observed data and projected rise combined. Further climate projections specific to a representative set of 16 settlements across Argyll & Bute are in Appendix 1. In terms of the “drier” part, below are average summer precipitation rates for Argyll River Basin. 9 Page 27
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While temperature and precipitation projections indicate trends, another important consideration is minimum night time temperatures in summertime. The reason for this is that when there is less opportunity for buildings to cool down, the phenomenon of heat stress, particularly in vulnerable people, rises considerably. There is a strong link between heat stress and summer mortalities which are a growing trend particularly further south in the UK and Europe as temperatures increase with climate change, and a counterpart to the better known phenomenon of winter deaths due to cold and poorly heated and insulated housing. Current indications are that Argyll and Bute as a region is less likely to suffer water scarcity in coming decades than other parts of Scotland and the UK, although this does not rule out local impacts and potential infrastructure damage, as indicated in Scottish Water’s 2024 climate change strategy . About one third of the population of Argyll and Bute has a private water supply, which is ten times the Scottish average. This presents an Argyll-specific climate risk as private water supplies can be more vulnerable to interruption or contamination in periods of low rainfall or drought. 1.2 Warmer, wetter winters In contrast to the trend for hotter, drier summers, in winter observed data and projections both point to trends to warmer, wetter winters with fewer days of frost under the overall trend for increasing temperatures. 5 290224ScottishWaterAdaptationPlan.pdf5 10 Page 28
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We can also expect increases in severity and frequency of severe weather events. Damage and disruption from flooding and landslides is one example: the heavy rain in early October 2023 caused £15m damage to infrastructure (mainly roads & bridges) in parts of Argyll and Bute and was not even one of the series of named national storms that autumn. As at February 2025, damage from Storm Eowyn is yet to be calculated but even more widespread, with some communities without power or telecoms for five days. Severe weather - wind While we have some sophisticated modelling of future temperature and precipitation, wind is harder to model and the Met Office climate change centre states that Due to the lack of any observed trends, there haven’t been any studies so far which provide a link between changes in UK storminess and climate change . Notwithstanding, the frequency of storm events over 2023-24 and the significance of wind as in the diagrams below in these also point to the likelihood of more potential damage and disruption from wind. 1.3 More severe weather events, and more variability 6 UK and Global extreme events – Wind storms - Met Office6 11 Page 29
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Wind direction is of especial importance for Argyll and Bute due to the central role of marine transport in the area. Ferry and marine tourism operators have commented on the significance of wind direction events disrupting services and impacting upon coastal infrastructure, in addition to householders’ accounts of damage to roofs due to strong winds from unusual directions. Severe weather – heavy rain or snow The graph below shows historic and projected incidence of intense rainfall events, noting that “future changes in extreme rainfall events could be almost 10 times more frequent in Northwest Scotland in 2080 compared to the 1980s, whilst in the south of the UK the value is closer to three times more frequent.” 6 UK and Global extreme events – Wind storms - Met Office7 7 12 Page 30
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Sea level rise, both absolute and from storm surges, is a major concern for Argyll and Bute. 80% of the region’s population lives within 1km of the coast (97% within 10km), and we have over 200km of road within 25m of the sea (at high tide), especially in Cowal and Bute. Replacement costs of sea defences for this stretch were estimated at £300m in 2015 prices. This would be equivalent to approximately £420m today due to inflation alone, with the actual figure likely significantly greater due to increased materials costs and more severe climatic conditions predicted. Below we see projected sea level rise for Tobermory to the end of the century under a range of carbon emission scenarios. The upper two lines, green and blue, represent the most likely outcomes as these are based on current and historical global emissions trends. The difference between the two is that the green line, suggesting 0.6m rise at the end of the century, is the mid range of the high emissions scenario whereas the blue line, at over 0.9m, represents what is described as the “upper end allowance” to take into account the most severe impact projections, drawn from UK Government guidance on data interpretation to inform coastal flood planning : 6 Flood and coastal risk projects, schemes and strategies: climate change allowances - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) 8 1.4 Sea level rise 8 13 Page 31
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The Dynamic Coast project provides an excellent tool to aid visualising impacts of sea level rise which can readily be applied at a scale from one square kilometre upwards. Taking Campbeltown as an example, the image below indicates the effect of a sea level rise under both the likely high emissions scenario and also the potential reduction if global emissions were cut rapidly: HES vs LES dashboard9 9 The combined Highland and Argyll flood risk management plan estimates 15,000 homes at risk of flooding (Highland as well as Argyll) increasing to 38,000 by the 2080s due to climate change. 2. Scoping Risk The processes of developing risk assessments in support of adaptation plans taken by Climate Ready Clyde and other regional climate change plans have started with screening the UK Climate Change Committee’s Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) to identify a core set of risks and opportunities. For Argyll and Bute Climate Action this comprised a peer group review of the initial scoping by the project manager of the set of 61 strategic risks identified by UKCCRA and grouped into 5 categories: Natural Environment and Assets; Infrastructure; Health, Communities and Built Environment; Business and Industry; and International Dimensions. 14 Page 32
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UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: Scoping Risks and Opportunities for CPP - project officer scoping Risk/ Opportunity Category Description In/ Out Rationale UKCCRA Score CPP Outcome I Infrastructure Risk I12. Transport High and low temperatures, high winds, lightning In Water transport inparticular is highly affected by wind More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk I13. Digital High and low temperatures, high winds, lightning In Digital infrastructure is already vulnerable Further investigation Transport & Infrastructure B Business and Industry Risk B1: Flooding of business sites Increase in flood risk In Known issue in multiple areas More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk B2: Coastal business locations and infrastructure Coastal flooding, extreme weather, erosion, and sea level rise In Known issue in multiple areas More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk B5: Employee productivity Infrastructure disruption and higher temperatures in working environments In Often underacknowledged as a risk in other areas Further investigation Housing Risk B6: Disruption to business supply chains and distribution networks Extreme weather In Transport & other links already extended & vulnerable, possible opportunities from pooling resources, early warning systems More action needed Transport & Infrastructure H Health, Communities, and the Built Environment Risk H1. Health and wellbeing High temperatures In Disproprortionate effects on most vulnerable More action needed Housing Risk H3. People, communities, and buildings Flooding In Already a known issue More action needed Housing Risk H4. Viability of coastal communities Sea level rise In Especially when combined with surface water and storm surge More action needed Housing Risk H5. Building fabric Moisture, wind and driving rain In Already a known issue Further investigation Housing Risk H7. Health and wellbeing Changes in indoor and outdoor air quality In Potentially also "Housing" due to incidence of damp in housing stock Further investigation Wellbeing Risk H8. Health Vector-borne disease In Particularly with some species moving further north and impact of flooding Further investigation Wellbeing Risk H9. Food safety and food security Higher temperatures (food safety) and extreme weather (food security) In Knock on effects of weather on transport infrastructure Further investigation Wellbeing These 5 categories were then aligned with the CPP outcomes of Transport Infrastructure, Housing and Community Wellbeing. This has necessarily been an arbitrary exercise as many of the risks are crosscutting. “Community” was interpreted to include non human communities in order to fit nature and biodiversity within the set of three outcomes. 15 The result is a set of 7 proposed risk groups, cross checked with lived experience drawn from stakeholder meetings and feedback from the ABCAN Climate Action Network: Flooding (water courses and surface water) Heavy rainfall, storms and landslides Temperature change, heatwaves and drought Wildfires Sea level rise & coastal erosion Multi-hazards affecting people, species, habitats Anything else? An initial scoping In/Out was suggested, with a short rationale for scoping each risk In/Out included, based on the CPP’s remit and ability to take action or have influence in relation to the respective risks. The full spreadsheet is provided in Appendix 3 with the image below providing a snapshot for illustration. Page 33
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Currently 2050s to 2080s Salmon production £0.5m- £5m/year £5m-£25m/year Whisky production £5m- £25m/year Over £25m/year Impact on forestry from wildfires £5m- £25m/year £18m-£80m/year Following the initial scoping and peer scoping, the findings were presented to the September meeting of the CPP Full Partnership, Climate Change Working Group and Area Community Planning Groups. The Full Partnership meeting was in person and participants were asked to indicate their perception of these risks based on their own experience either personally or upon their organisations or areas of work, with the results being: Heavy rainfall, storms and landslides 84% Flooding (water courses and surface water) 66% Sea level rise & coastal impacts 47% Multi-hazards affecting people, species, habitats 25% Temperature change, heatwaves and drought 25% Wildfires 19% Anything else? Possible other unknowns 3% Several CPP members have risk assessments planned for this year or the immediate future. Various regional adaptation initiatives have commissioned consultant support in developing risk assessments and Risk/Economic Assessment is proposed as one of the set of ten measures in the Gaps and Opportunities section. In support of this, key findings from Highland Adapts’ recently published risk and opportunity and economic assessments relating to a set of key sectors comparable to Argyll and Bute are cited in the expectation that these can be replaced with Argyll- specific assessments over the action plan development phase. Risk and Opportunity Assessments by key Sectors from Highland Adapts The analysis includes circular economy considerations which resonate strongly with Argyll and Bute’s proposed approach to Community Wealth Building. In September 2024 Highland Adapts released their economic analysis of three key sectors which form part of their wider ongoing Climate Risk and Opportunity Assessment. This includes risks to: Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Highlands (highlandadapts.scot)10 This scoping is emphatically not about what risks are the most important, but about what are within the CPP’s scope and ability to take action. Assessment of risks facing local communities including their health and wellbeing is proposed as the priority area closest to the CPP remit. 16 Page 34
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Crucial to efforts to mitigate our contribution to climate change is the concept of “net zero”. This is the approach to mitigation adopted by the Scottish and UK Governments on the basis that while we can seek to reduce emissions from our actions and processes we cannot always eliminate them altogether. Net zero requires that where we are unable to reduce emissions to zero in some areas we need to ensure that in others we go beyond zero such as by appropriately managed afforestation, peatland and marine (blue carbon) restoration and more controversially through carbon capture and storage technology. This is of particular significance to Argyll and Bute with extensive areas of forest and peatland, extensive coastline and a small population relative to the area. A critical point is that these existing reserves do not constitute carbon reduction: only restoration or creation of new reserves would achieve this. The Operational Plan underlying the strategy notes that, “it is expected that Mitigation will mostly be directed and mandated through national regulatory and incentive programs” in order to 3. Identifying the actions that will address them 3.1 Mitigation to reduce our climate change gas emissions: Climate Friendly identify the opportunities for Argyll and Bute to reduce emissions at least in line with national targets maximise the sequestration of carbon in our natural landscapes highlight areas where action is needed in the next five years to prepare the ground for these changes what we can leave to national processes to deliver, and where we can help quicken the pace of change identify region-wide approaches and also take account of the variation in opportunities across different communities, places and landscapes 17 Page 35
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Not all bodies have a published Carbon Management/Decarbonisation Plan. Some report that this is planned or in progress and there are potential opportunities in joint working and skill and data sharing across the CPP to support this. The Scottish Government expects to develop templates for area-wide emissions to complement individual bodies’ reports over the next year to 18 months, which may bring wider emissions within scope of the CPP partner bodies’ duties. Similarly, the Scottish Government have work in progress to make reporting requirements around Scope 3 emissions (supply chain) clearer and more robust. Most of the CPP partner members have Public Body Climate Change reporting duties under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act based on the current (2022-23) set of reports as published by the Sustainable Scotland Network , and collectively these organisations bodies have averaged reductions of 41% since their baseline reporting years. Reductions are presented as percentage rather than as gross figures because many of the bodies cover wider geographic areas than Argyll and Bute. These are summarised in the Emissions 2023 tab of the spreadsheet GORE Gaps Opportunities Risks Emissions reproduced in Appendix 3. 11 https://sustainablescotlandnetwork.org/slickr_media_upload?id=200512 Currently the two emissions data sets specifically covering the Argyll and Bute boundary are Argyll and Bute Council’s emissions figures as presented in its Climate Change Duties Report , and the Local Authority Greenhouse Gas Map from the National Atmospheric Emissions Laboratory. Due to the high area of afforested land, land use in Argyll delivers a net saving of 532 ktCO2e making our total emissions across all sectors only 257 ktCO2e despite being the second largest county by area. This also translates to 3 tonnes per capita which is 25% under the global average of 4 tonnes (although to have the best chance of avoiding a 2℃ rise in global temperatures, the average global carbon footprint per year needs to drop to under 2 tons by 2050). These can easily be interpreted as a recipe for inaction, but if we discount the forestry figure, our regional emissions come to 676 ktCO2e with our per capita emissions up correspondingly. 12 13 14 Reports (sustainablescotlandnetwork.org)11 Local Authority GHG Map (beis.gov.uk)14 2021-22 figures used. 2022-23 figures have been published but GHG Map still using 2021.13 18 Page 36
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In order to enable some form or comparison, the gap and opportunity analysis exercise looked at percentage emissions changes for these organisations in order to enable a picture of the overall relative direction and pace of travel. Argyll and Bute Council’s emissions figures refer to its own operations rather than to the area as a whole, so the figures are not directly comparable with the Local Authority Greenhouse Gas Map. 11 Other public bodies operating in the region produce their own emissions plans and reports. Meetings to date have identified that for some of these they are currently revising decarbonisation/carbon management plans. However, the other public bodies operating in the area work to different geographical boundaries, with some operating only in part of the area, and others covering wider regional areas such as Argyll and Highland, or operating nationally, so again this means that figures for the various organisations from these reports are not directly comparable. Collectively, the public bodies in Argyll with climate reporting duties have achieved an average reduction of 41% in carbon emissions over the period in which they have been reporting (usually around 10 years) and common consensus is that the easy wins have long since been made with further reductions largely dependent upon major infrastructure developments to support lower carbon energy and transport. 19 Page 37
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Argyll and Bute Climate Action: Summary of CPP Public Body Climate emissions From partners covered by Climate Duty reporting requirements CPP Member Scope 1 Scope 2 Scope 3 Total emissions Emissions trend from baseline Emissions change from baseline Geography Note Direct emissions from sources that the organisation owns or controls directly Indirect emissions and purchased energy Everything outside Scope 1 and 2. Also value and supply chain, waste, commuting and home working All bodies have had fluctuations including from changing reporting requirements Baseline years vary and all bodies have benefited from decarbonisation of electricity Argyll and Bute Council 8700 3780 14000 26500 Down Down 33% A&B UHI Argyll A&B Health and Social Care Partnership/NHS Highland 19620 6211 731 26560 Down Down 25% Highland and A&B Highlands and Islands Enterprise 147 165 183 495 Down Down 67% H&I,A&B Loch Lomond & Trossachs National Park 123 73 47 243 Down Down 37% Multiple LA Areas Police Scotland 26557 9929 2874 39360 Down Down 43% Scotland Scottish Ambulance Service 23500 930 1150 25600 Down Down 9% Scotland Scottish Enterprise 372 195 738 1300 Down Down 78% Scotland Scottish Fire and Rescue Service 10837 3632 777 15246 Down Down 35% Scotland NatureScot 352 216 346 915 Down Down 42% Scotland SEPA 395 510 837 1742 Down Down 47% Scotland Skills Development Scotland 158 198 1682 2038 Down Down 47% Scotland SportScotland [blank] 584 106 690 Down Down 60% Scotland Strathclyde Partnership for Transport 447 2466 291 3204 Down Down 68% Clyde HITRANS 1 6 7 Down Down 56% H&I, A&B VisitScotland 79 203 617 899 Down Down 73% Scotland Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) 40000 28154 6600 74850 Down Down 31% UK Crofting Commission 0.5 3 12 15 Down Down 23% Scotland Forestry Commission (Scottish Forestry) 40 45 213 298 Up Up 12% Scotland Forestry Commission (Forest & Land Scotland) 2352 511 556 3418 Down Down 9% Scotland CALMAC -CMAL Scotland Scottish Water 39000 85000 93000 217000 Down Down 53% Scotland Average reduction 41% Beyond the public sector, emissions information is much less readily available and there is limited scope for the strategy via the CPP to place requirements on other bodies to take action or make information available, although there is some potential such as via incentive uptake rates where these are reported and this will be an important consideration for the route map. A useful piece of terminology to help understand how carbon emissions are reported is the distinction between Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions. Scope 1 refers to direct emissions from sources that the organisation owns or controls directly, such as emissions from fleet vehicles or boilers for heating buildings. Scope 2 is indirect emissions and purchased energy such as purchased electricity for heating buildings or running equipment. Scope 3 is more complex as this covers everything outside Scopes 1 and 2, including procurement and the wider supply chain, commuting and homeworking and also waste. For most CPP partners, Scope 3 is the hardest to measure category of emissions. The operational plan makes specific reference to sequestration. This is the term for capturing, stabilising and storing carbon rather than have it escape into the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. Estimates for economic opportunities for carbon sequestration range from £8.7m, based on restoring 10% of local degraded peatland, to more than £3bn when looking at longer-term high value integrated projects .15 Carbon sequestration Argyll and Bute research | HIE15 20 Page 38
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ACT are participants in the Facility for Investment Ready Nature in Scotland (FIRNS), working to develop a project integrity charter and a governance and enterprise model. The outcome of this project and the other 26 FIRNS projects currently being worked through in Scotland will help to define how natural capital finance can work in Scotland and support delivery of climate action specific to Argyll and Bute, while also potentially helping to address widespread perceptions that more could be done to improve the social and economic as well as environmental impacts of land use, land use change and forestry. Facility for Investment Ready Nature in Scotland (FIRNS) project | Argyll and the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust Steering Group partners have emphasised the importance of ensuring that sequestration measures and any emissions reductions claimed are genuine, and also the risk of the high amount of forestry in Argyll and Bute artificially reducing per capita and per hectare emissions and that this could be misinterpreted as a recipe for inaction and complacency on climate change. Discussions of carbon sequestration are further nuanced by the concepts of offsetting and a newer and less well known alternative, “insetting”. This concept will be of increasing importance for Argyll and Bute. Offsetting refers to the buying of carbon credits to offset carbon emissions that a body is unable or unwilling to reduce, and has been the subject of repeated criticisms concerning how robust the models employed are and how genuine and lasting any emission savings are. Insetting has been described by the Carbon Literacy Project as “carbon insetting focuses on doing more good rather than doing less bad within one’s value chain. Instead of investing in projects outside their value chains, companies engaging in carbon insetting invest in reducing carbon emissions within their own value chains. At the same time, these projects can also create positive impacts on communities, landscapes and ecosystems.”17 https://www.argyll-bute.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023- 05/woodland_and_forestry_strategy_april_2011_ac.pdf 16 An important point of clarification is the distinction between commercial forestry, typically involving a single tree species planted and then harvested on a 35-40 year cycle, and native woodland with a wider variety of species, including ancient woodland and rainforest. Fast growing commercial species capture carbon more quickly while growing, but if used for biomass once harvested this carbon is then released again into the atmosphere, and the disturbance of soil during planting and harvesting releases further carbon (forest soil typically stores twice as much carbon as the trees). The Argyll and Bute Woodland and Forestry Strategy notes that “While new woodland is an excellent means of sequestering atmospheric carbon and will play an important role in Scotland’s response to climate change mitigation, protecting sensitive peat soils – major carbon stores in their own right – is critical to prevent unnecessary carbon liberation” and that “Maintaining and expanding the native woodland resource will also be important in generating longer-lived carbon stores”. Carbon Insetting vs Carbon Offsetting - The Carbon Literacy Project17 21 Page 39
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Argyll has some of the finest remnants of temperate rainforest in all of Europe. Restoring the rainforest and associated habitats of Argyll & the Isles will give rainforest biodiversity the best chance to adapt to our changing climate, to sequester carbon and to prevent soil erosion and flooding. Scottish Rainforest restoration projects are creating the equivalent of 40 new full-time jobs and investing £3.2 million in rural communities, with over half of that investment being in Argyll. Distinctions between mitigation/reducing carbon emissions, and adaptation/taking action to reduce the impacts of unavoidable climate change can be blurred and in the case of CPP partners, and opportunities for reducing emissions through working in partnership, this is even more the case. The subtleties of offsetting and insetting are of major potential significance for Argyll and Bute. Research by the Scottish Association for Marine Science for Highland and Islands Enterprise on optimising carbon sequestration opportunities in Argyll and Bute indicates that terrestrial ecosystems in Argyll and Bute hold between 587-990 MtCO2e (million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent), of which 510-898 MtCO2e comes from soils to 1 m depth and 77-90 MtCO2e is held within the aboveground vegetation, half of which is held within the woodlands and forests. Put another way, soil stocks alone hold more than ten times Scotland’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. For the marine environment, the same research indicates that the marine sediments of Argyll and Bute hold an estimated 166 MtCO2e carbon. Another example is the CPP’s role in prevention and enhancing resilience and addressing vulnerability: if collective action on resilience and community wellbeing can reduce demand on emergency services this can also reduce Scope 1 emissions due to fleet emissions for these organisations, which for this category of services is their greatest single source of emissions. 18 https://www.hie.co.uk/media/13011/optimising-carbon-sequestration-opportunities-in-ab-sams-wp1-and-3.pdf 18 The examples above indicate the amount of carbon stored in land and the potential for enhancing carbon storage through land management, but bringing, for example, peatland and woodlands into positive management also offer opportunities to reduce flood and wildfire risk as well as enhancing biodiversity, local amenity and creating job opportunities. 22 Page 40
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3.2 Adaptation to unavoidable impacts of climate change: Climate Ready With global carbon emissions continuing to rise and increasing incidence of different and extreme weather events and temperature records, the importance of adaptation continues to grow. Mitigation is expected to be mostly driven by existing national plans and targets, complemented by partnership opportunities, and many of the easy wins have already been made. Adaptation is less explored and at the same time frequently of greater understandable importance and immediacy to communities: impacts of road and other transport closures, floods and high rain and winds all provide recent examples felt by all throughout the region. These threats are compounded by the length and vulnerability of transport links and also the low population density making capital funding harder to access, but conversely where taking measures to support community resilience, compounded with building upon local knowledge and experience and wider reviews such as the 2023 Scotland Adaptation Progress Report can identify opportunities. As with mitigation, key achievements or opportunities are indicated where possible and recurrent or major themes are brought into a short list of potential measures. Organisations do not currently have to have published adaptation plans but this is under review and the Scottish Government may mandate this in future for public bodies. Although addressed to the Scottish Government, the top ten of the 51 recommendations from the Progress Report are also relevant at local level: Ensure that support for adaptation alongside decarbonisation is included in key building policies Address data gaps on impacts to buildings and adaptation actions by utilising already available data to track resilience of the building stock, monitoring of samples of existing buildings in at-risk locations, and home resilience reporting that include assessments of flood and overheating resilience. Proactive adaptation measures for overheating and flood resilience in buildings. Identifying at-risk buildings, awareness raising, training and engagement on property- level flood protection. Address data gaps on Scottish business preparedness, availability of capital and insurance for adaptation, and the effectiveness of business adaptation actions. Measures for reducing water use by business. Supply chain resilience to climate hazards Adaptation reporting requirements 19 https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/adapting-to-climate-change-progress-in-scotland/19 23 Page 41
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Initiatives for place-based and cross-sectoral adaptation and including support for vulnerable areas and sectors Long-term planning, including monitoring of weather-related incident response The UK Climate Change Committee’s 10 adaptation principles applied to Argyll & Bute Principle Progress/Opportunities for Action 1 A vision for a well adapted UK Proposed vision: “We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate” 2 Integrate adaptation into other policies Examples include links with flood resilience plans, community risk register, housing and transport policies, sustainable procurement, carbon literate training. 3 Adapt to 2°C; assess the risks for 4°C Always work to high emissions scenarios 4 Avoid lock-in (eg building new homes without designing in adaptations to future conditions such as extreme heat) This links well with integrating with other policies, by seeking to identify co benefits and also to avoid reliance on a single action or technology. The geographic scale and diversity of Argyll and Bute also mandate this approach. Also the importance of factoring climate into eg major infrastructure projects. 5 Prepare for unpredictable extremes This requires an acceptance that the unexpected can happen and emphasises the need to enhancing overall resilience in addition to specific flood/heatwave etc measures 6 Assess interdependencies This is one of the great strengths of the CPP model where many of the key agencies and partnership working can help to address interdependencies. Many adaptation measures can also have strong links with mitigation. 7 Understand threshold effects Things happen fast after thresholds or tipping points are crossed (eg algal blooms when water is over 17 centigrade), meaning a new course of action may be needed, but adaptation plans have often focussed on gradual changes over time. Building up a bank of threshold effects appropriate to Argyll can inform how to take these into account. 8 Address inequalities Working through the CPP priority outcomes around Transport Infrastructure, Housing and Community Wellbeing provides a strong basis for this. There are well documented links between climate vulnerability and social inequality and the community remit of the CPP can support prioritising accordingly. 9 Consider opportunities Meetings with key partners and literature review to inform the gap and opportunity analysis have identified 6 main opportunity areas for action: Infrastructure Policy Influence Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Risk/Economic Assessment Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training Skills Development 10 Funding, resourcing, metrics, research A specific task in the operational plan is to identify funding and pilot opportunities. 24 Page 42
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A climate risk assessment for Argyll and Bute will be required as part of ongoing work, and one proposed priority area for action is to collaborate with Community Planning partners who are starting their own processes of developing adaptation plans who need to undertake climate risk assessments. The first draft of this strategy circulated in March 2023 proposed the set of 15 headline “Consequences ” identified by Adaptation Scotland as a starting point for scoping climate risk in Argyll to inform future risk assessment work. The productivity of our agriculture and forests: potential to improve growing conditions and increase the productivity of agriculture and forestry, but also threats from more variable and extreme weather to the spread of pests and diseases. The occurrence of pests and disease The quality of our soils: We rely on soils to sustain biodiversity, support agriculture and forestry, regulate the water cycle and store carbon. Soils and vegetation may be altered by changes to rainfall and increased temperatures - as well as the way we use the land. The health of our natural environment: Climate change may affect the delicate balance of Scotland’s ecosystems and transform Scotland’s habitats and biodiversity, adding to existing pressures. Some distinctive Scottish species may struggle and could be lost, invasive non-native species may thrive, while a degraded environment may not be able to sustain productive land or water supply. Temperate rainforest is especially susceptible to the impacts of climate change: Argyll has some of the best examples of this in Europe, with unmitigated climate change, climatic suitability for temperate rainforest could be lost from Argyll by the end of the century. The security of our food supply: Although Scotland may be able to grow more food, this will not offset the impact global disruption has on us. The effects of increased volatility in the global commodity market due to exposure to extreme climatic events has an impact on supply and cost of food. The availability and quality of water: Summer droughts may become more frequent and more severe causing problems for water quality and supply. The increased risk of flooding The change at our coast: More coastal flooding, erosion and coastline retreat. The health of our marine environment: The changes will present both threats and opportunities to our commercial fisheries and aquaculture. 20 Adaptation: Risk Assessment 25 Page 43
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The resilience of our businesses: Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt transport, energy and communication networks in Scotland and around the world. This could impact on markets, affect supply chains and raise insurance costs. The health and wellbeing of our people: A warming climate may provide more opportunity to be outdoors and enjoy a healthy and active lifestyle, while reducing mortality in winter. However, it could affect patterns of disease and other health issues. Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt the lives of individuals and communities, limiting access to vital services and impacting on people’s physical and mental health. Our cultural heritage and identity: The changing climate is already altering our unique Scottish landscape and threatening our historic environment through coastal erosion, flooding and wetter, warmer conditions. The security and efficiency of our energy supply: In addition to local generation and transmission, impacts on global energy markets may also affect energy supplies in Scotland and consequently our overall energy security. The performance of our buildings Infrastructure – network connectivity and interdependencies: Our infrastructure is closely inter-linked and failure in any area can lead to wider disruption across these networks. In line with the methodology developed by Climate Ready Clyde and subsequently adopted in modified form by subsequent regional climate initiatives, these and the set of 61 risks identified in the UC Climate Change Committee’s Climate Change Risk Assessment (Summary for Scotland) were put through a screening and scoping exercise by the project manager and peer groups to identify a set of key risk areas, and also presented to the CPP Full Partnership, Climate Change Working Group and Area Community Planning Groups for corroboration with their own experience. 26 Page 44
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We are using “climate just” as shorthand for Just Transition. The Scottish Government has defined just transition as “A just transition is both the outcome – a fairer, greener future for all – and the process that must be undertaken in partnership with those impacted by the transition to net zero. Just transition is how we get to a net zero and climate resilient economy, in a way that delivers fairness and tackles inequality and injustice.” 3.3 Engagement: Climate Just In the context of developing a climate change strategy for Argyll and Bute, engagement spans: Core Community Planning Partnership partners Wider CPP partners CPP technical partners National technical partners and networks Wider Argyll & Bute institutions and networks Communities across Argyll and Bute, including Administrative areas Individual locations and settlements The three guiding principles underlying the ABCA business case are fundamental to the engagement approach: Argyll and Bute communities, places and landscapes are being affected by climate change in different ways. There are likely to be common challenges across the region but there will also be significant variation within and between communities, places and landscapes. The proposed climate risk and opportunity assessment and follow on mitigation, adaptation planning and implementation must identify region-wide climate risks and opportunities for action and take account of local variations and capacity to adapt. All aspects of the initiative will be carried out in an inclusive and accessible way and reflect on just transition. Priority will be given to ensuring that communities, physical or virtual, are engaged in these processes and that local knowledge and experience is valued and used. 21 https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy- plan/2021/09/transition-fairer-greener-scotland/documents/transition-fairer-greener- scotland/transition-fairer-greener-scotland/govscot%3Adocument/transition-fairer-greener- scotland.pdf 21 27 Page 45
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Parallel to ABCA strategy development is the Argyll and Bute Climate Action Network (ABCAN) project with Scottish Government funding in support of outcomes including: Widen participation by engaging new communities and strengthening existing activity. Increase in community led climate change mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity projects, driven by communities themselves, contributing to a fair and just transition to net zero. Increasing community resilience and knowledge of how to respond to climate change; Strengthened and increased collaboration and knowledge sharing across and between community groups, public, private and 3rd sector partners leading to an acceleration in community action Minority and disadvantaged communities are visible, confident and active within the network, taking part and leading climate action activities. Increase in community climate literacy, which directly leads to a 5 - 15% reduction in participant’s carbon footprints. Increase in involvement in policy setting, decision making and local place planning with climate lens by communities. This parallel initiative greatly enhances the reach of the overall ACT/CPP climate effort. Although separately funded and staffed, the two projects are working in close collaboration and a basis for distinction is that ABCAN Hub has more of a grassroots and community focus whereas ABCA Strategy is slightly more oriented towards institutions, but can also ensure that the grassroots activity and aspirations from the Hub have a strategic voice. 22 ACT Now | Argyll and the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust22 This collaboration includes working with Argyll and Bute Council to support the inclusion of the “Climate Lens” in developing Local Place Plans with community councils and other bodies across the region. 28 Page 46
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Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership has three priority outcomes: Transport Infrastructure Housing Community Wellbeing. This principle is followed here and in Appendix 5 the CPP outcomes are aligned against national and wider climate outcomes including National Performance Framework Net Zero Nation, UN Sustainable Development Goals and most significantly for this strategy the five outcomes of the Scottish National Adaptation Plan (SNAP3) : Public Services and Infrastructure: Public services are collaborating in effective, inclusive adaptation action. Communities: Communities creating climate-resilient, healthy and equitable places. Nature Connects: Nature connects across our lands, settlements, coasts and seas. Economy, Industry and Business: Economies and industries are adapting and realising opportunities in Scotland’s Just Transition. International: Scotland’s international role supports climate justice and enhanced global action on climate adaptation. 4. Vision, outcomes and objectives 23 Vision Our vision is that We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate Outcomes Climate change: Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)23 29 Page 47
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Scottish National Adaptation Plan Outcomes Argyll & Bute Community Planning Partnership Outcomes Public Services and Infrastructure: Public services are collaborating in effective, inclusive adaptation action. Transport Infrastructure Communities: Communities creating climate-resilient, healthy and equitable places. Housing, Community Welbeing Nature Connects: Nature connects across our lands, settlements, coasts and seas. Community Wellbeing Economy, Industry and Business: Economies and industries are adapting and realising opportunities in Scotland’s Just Transition. Transport Infrastructure, Housing International: Scotland’s international role supports climate justice and enhanced global action on climate adaptation. Transport Infrastructure, Community Wellbeing The alignment of the five outcomes of the Scottish National Adaptation Plan with the CPP outcomes is: Objectives Governance and leadership Identifying leadership and champions (organisations and community) Liaison and reporting with CPP structures Vision and theory of change Engagement strategy Logo, branding and image Understanding the challenge Audit & gap analysis Mitigation Adaptation Engagement The objectives for the strategy are grouped under three work packages agreed by the CPP 30 Page 48
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Planning and implementation Quick win opportunities Pilot projects Training Funding Scope options for planning and implementation (Transport, Housing, Community Wellbeing) Proposals for taking forward specifics under these are listed in the Task List in Appendix 6.2. This refers to working up the strategy. The Action Plan is then to be developed with partners in the remaining half of the project to take forward delivery under the principal Areas for Action identified through the gap and opportunity analysis. 5. Identifying opportunity areas for action We started with a need to find out what is already happening and where there are gaps or opportunities and greatest risks. This cuts across mitigation, adaptation and engagement. This has been informed through: Review of CPP partners’ Climate Change Duty reports Review of partners’ climate change plans where published Review of other regional climate plans Review of other plans and strategies relevant to Argyll and Bute Support from Sniffer/Adaptation Scotland and Sustainable Scotland Network Meetings with stakeholders including CPP representatives Feedback from the wider community mainly via the A&B Climate Action Network Hubs In Argyll and Bute, the most comprehensive and consistent information relating to the overall picture of current climate action comes from the Climate Duty reports provided by the public bodies operating in the area. This provides a strong although not perfect match with the main bodies in the CPP and consequently this can provide an illustration of both activity within the CPP and potential gaps where the CPP may have agency or capacity to take action, either collectively or by constituent bodies. 31 Page 49
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These are complemented by published climate strategies but not all organisations have these and some treat items such as risk assessments as confidential internal documents Meetings with stakeholders have included suggestions relating to other organisations, and these are currently excluded from the analysis as “informal”, although they may inform discussion on developing the action plan. A collaboration with Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface is under development to undertake a comprehensive audit of the sector across Argyll and Bute including elements on climate readiness which can further inform the development of the Action Plan in support of this strategy over 2025. Likewise, meetings with stakeholders outside the public sector have revealed a wide range of action but less regarding reporting requirements relating to these. Future work including business grants and agricultural/land management payments will include elements of carbon and other environmental reporting but these are currently work in progress to be captured within the Action Plan as this is developed over 2025. A collaboration with Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface is under development to undertake a comprehensive audit of the sector across Argyll and Bute including elements on climate readiness which can further inform the development of the Action Plan in support of this strategy over 2025. Developing the Action Plan also needs to be informed by local knowledge from partners and the wider community, requiring ongoing engagement to complement the literature review and meetings held to date. Building upon the literature review and engagement, a set of opportunity areas for action was developed, aligned against key findings from the partners’ published Public Body Climate Duty reports: Infrastructure Policy Influence Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Risk/Economic Assessment Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training Skills Development (Subsequently combined with Procurement and Supply Chain) Other 32 Page 50
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These categories of measures were reviewed by peers via a spreadsheet with three columns of drop down boxes in order to prioritise measures associated with the Climate Duty reports to establish a group of thematic measures appropriate to the CPP’s remit and scope of control and influence in order to inform ongoing development of the Action Plan. Opportunity Areas for Action 5.1 Infrastructure Infrastructure is a primary concern in Argyll and Bute, with the length and vulnerability of the transport network to flooding, landslides and coastal impacts attracting comment from nearly all stakeholder and community meetings. The region’s geography also 33 Page 51
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that marine and air transport links are major considerations in addition to road and rail. 5.2 Policy Influence “Policy influence” covers areas that are not within the CPP’s ability to control but where the collective voice of the CPP or its individual members may seek to inform or influence policy. This is seen as an important role for the CPP by many, with a common perception that many climate-related policies are more suited to densely populated and predominantly urban areas rather than to Argyll and Bute’s distinctive geography and population. There is less consensus among stakeholders on the extent to which this is a concern for the Community Planning Partnership as distinct to the specific groups within the CPP with expertise and responsibility for transport infrastructure and links with flood resilience planning. There is more consensus among stakeholders on the CPP’s role in addressing demand and impacts upon transport infrastructure including propensity to travel and potential to influence travel choices to reduce reliance on private cars, noting that 30% of households in Argyll and Bute do not have a car. Communications and grid infrastructure are also major concerns: enhancing grid capacity is a key element of decarbonising both transport (electric vehicle charging) and housing as well as enabling further renewable energy developments in the region which is seen as a key economic and climate opportunity. Addressing digital exclusion is a priority for Argyll and Bute and the resilience of telecommunications links in the face of climate change was a repeated theme in stakeholder meetings, including some concerns over the switchover from physical copper-based landlines to internet-based services. Natural or Green/blue infrastructure is a major consideration for Argyll and Bute, with nature based solutions such as natural flood risk management to complement hard engineering where appropriate as well as the carbon saving opportunities – and potential economic opportunities – associated. 5.3 Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain Community Wealth Building is seen as a major climate change opportunity including in terms of shortening supply chains, strengthening local markets and the local economy, supporting jobs and skills development and a just transition to a greener economy. 34 Page 52
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Multiple stakeholders commented on the potential for the CPP’s combined procurement activity to support community wealth building in addition to potentially reducing duplication and transport impacts. Procurement is a tightly regulated area and all CPP budgets are under pressure, so there is a need to balance climate change considerations alongside affordability, availability value for money, fitness for purpose and other best value considerations. This is an area that falls within Scope 3 emissions, and as such likely to be subject to increasing reporting requirements. Several CPP partners have provided instances where local providers have been able to deliver in preference to large providers from outside the region, enabling money to stay within the region and supporting local employment and skills at the same time as delivering best value. Supplier engagement programmes have been seen as a valuable tool and an area where there are further opportunities for reducing economic leakage and shortening elements of some supply chains. 5.4 Risk Assessment Several CPP partners are at similar stages of starting climate adaptation and associated risk assessment processes. Stakeholders have indicated the potential value in working together on this as well as sharing existing information, and several have also emphasised the importance of factoring in economic assessments. Examples of risk and economic assessments and methodologies from Highland Adapts are included in the appendices. Commissioning a risk assessment for Argyll and Bute with emphasis on community wellbeing is proposed as the best fit with CPP outcomes, with the opportunity to do this from existing project resources. Natural or Green/blue infrastructure is a major consideration for Argyll and Bute, with nature based solutions such as natural flood risk management to complement hard engineering where appropriate as well as the carbon saving opportunities – and potential economic opportunities – associated. 35 Skills development and education is seen as one of the most important areas to address the trend to a declining and ageing population in Argyll and Bute as well as to strengthening the economy and community wellbeing. In the context of climate change, this is further important through the role of skills development in supporting a just transition to a lower carbon and more resilient economy. Skills development, including education, is presented separately to resilience and carbon literacy training on the basis that resilience and carbon literacy training are specific and well defined exercises as distinct to the much broader range of activity around skills development and education across Argyll and Bute. Page 53
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As the group of organisations and community representatives working together to achieve improvements across Argyll and Bute in ways which promote prevention, reduce inequalities and build community capacity, the CPP is strongly placed to work in multiple ways to develop overall resilience in the community in addition to measures more specific to climate change. There are also opportunities to integrate this with place planning in addition to developing and delivering resilience training at multiple levels across the region, such as the online climate resilience training currently being piloted by the Argyll & Bute Community Action Network. Carbon Literacy training is more well established and recognised and this in addition to enhancing individuals’ empowerment and agency with regard to climate change can also support employability. When presenting the set of proposed areas of action to the CPP Full Partnership for attendees to indicate their priorities, some respondents indicated “other”: subsequent discussion with these respondents indicated that this was from desired actions that cut across multiples of these areas of activity rather than fitting into any one category. 5.6 Crosscutting/Other 6. Monitoring, Reporting and Evaluation Because the Argyll & Bute Climate Change Strategy is not a statutory requirement, it cannot place reporting or other duties upon the CPP partners and the Climate Change Public Body Duty reporting requirements provide a means by which the partners’ climate activity can be monitored and reported. 36 The new Scottish National Adaptation Plan emphasises the need to support people and communities most vulnerable to climate impacts and building resilient, healthy, and equitable places, including rural, island and coastal communities. The Scottish Government defines resilience as “Communities and individuals harnessing resources and expertise to help themselves prepare for, respond to and recover from emergencies, in a way that complements the work of emergency responders”. 5.5 Resilience/Carbon Literacy Page 54
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Funding for Argyll & Bute Climate Action runs until October 2025 meaning that there is no dedicated resource for monitoring and reporting of the strategy as a whole after October 2025. Feedback from meetings with partners to date has been supportive of an approach based around existing Public Body Climate Duty reporting requirements, such that ongoing activity can be captured and new projects brought within the same framework wherever possible. This has the potential to offer a basic level of monitoring not only of the activity of public sector partners but also through the “Wider Influence” section where they in turn can have broader impact through partnership or client working. The Sustainable Scotland Network does a national level assessment of the Public Body Duty reports, typically made available in May-June after individual bodies’ reports are submitted at the end of the calendar year. At present there is no provision for regional- level assessment although this is a recognised issue. There may be some potential for Sniffer/Adaptation Scotland to provide some assistance with evaluation of the adaptation components of the strategy beyond the funded period but this would not replace the need for ongoing monitoring and reporting. This approach seeks to reduce extra reporting as much as possible there would still be resource implications associated. This would entail a requirement for the CPP to identify an individual and make time available (suggested two days) to review the partners’ published reports and SSN national assessment, and present this to the Climate Change Working Group autumn meeting. 37 For more information please contact: Andy Macpherson Climate Change Project Manager Argyll Countryside Trust andy@act-now.org.uk act-now.org.uk/cpp Page 55
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Executive Summary Climate change is one of the most serious threats that we face in Scotland. Rising temperatures, drier summers, wetter winters, sea level rise, and an increased risk of flooding, will all affect our lives. There is a global need to take action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions which are responsible, but changes in climate will not be completely eliminated by these actions. We also need to find ways of adapting to the effects of climate change. We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate. It has been developed through an engagement process managed by the Argyll Countryside Trust (ACT) on behalf of Argyll & Bute’s Community Planning Partnership, Climate Working Group, with funding thanks to Argyll and Bute Council, NHS Highland, NatureScot and Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface. A climate change strategy for Argyll & Bute Argyll & Bute Climate Action It links to Argyll & Bute’s Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024 – 2034 which focusses on improving the outcomes of Transport Infrastructure, Housing and Community Wellbeing. This is a strategy and action plan for Argyll & Bute. A region wide, community led, net-zero, climate change resilient, adaptation plan, in support of the vision that: Page 57
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The heavy rain in early October 2023 caused £15m damage to infrastructure (mainly roads and bridges) in parts of Argyll & Bute Now and into the future, we want a thriving Argyll & Bute where our collective choices and actions enhance our continued wellbeing in a changing climate. Our climate change strategy seeks to tackle climate change, by working together to be: Climate friendly: Reduce Argyll & Bute’s greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change (mitigation). Climate Ready: Resilient and adapted to unavoidable climate change (adaptation), and Climate Just: Ensure all of our communities are included. 80% of the population of Argyll & Bute lives within 1km of the coast (97% within 10km of coast), and we have over 200km of road within 25m of the sea (at high tide). Page 58
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Climate Risk Impact Warmer, wetter winters: Increased rainfall volume and intensity Increased landslides, flooded water courses and more surface water Hotter, drier summers: higher average and higher peak temperatures, increased heatwave frequency and longer drought periods higher risk of human and animal heat stress, illness and mortality, crop failure, wildfires and freshwater scarcity More severe, and more variable weather events: Less predictable but more frequent storms, increased variability in wind speed and direction, higher peak wind speeds, higher rainfall intensity windblow, forest damage, road blockage, power line damage/power cuts, property damage, flooding, landslides Sea level rise and storm surges: increased coastal erosion coastal infrastructure damage and loss, coastal retreat or protection cost Multi-hazards affecting people, species and habitats: Combination of hazards compounding climate risks and impacts. Single actions less likely to address mitigation or adaptation. Solutions needs to maximise multiple benefits and work with natural processes Increased climate unpredictability Climate forecasts less predictable, actions need to be based on worst-case scenarios, resilience more dependent on agile and diverse actions Our strategy identifies the key climate risks impacting on Argyll & Bute and the areas in which we can take action to address them: Page 59
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Areas for Action Infrastructure Addressing demand and impacts of better transport infrastructure to reduce reliance on private cars and provide for those who do not have a car; Enhancing communications and grid infrastructure through maximising decarbonisation and renewable energy opportunities; Natural capital: managing our green and blue infrastructure to reduce emissions and support resilience. Policy influence Influencing national and regional public and non-public policies through the CPP’s collective voice in a way that recognises Argyll & Bute's distinctive geography and population. Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain Promoting opportunities for climate mitigation, adaptation and community wealth building through improving circular economies within Argyll & Bute. Increasing opportunities for individuals to gain the skills required to deliver climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Risk Assessment Deepening our understanding of the risks and opportunities, including economic risks and opportunities, presented by climate change to Argyll and Bute as a whole and to specific communities and sectors. Resilience/Carbon Literacy Promoting carbon literacy and greater resilience, across all CPP sectors to empower individuals to bring about climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Crosscutting/Other Encourage individuals, communities and agencies to take multiple actions and to identify new risks and opportunities. With fuel poverty nearly 50% higher than the Scottish average, and higher again in more rural areas, and private water supplies ten times the national average, our housing is largely insufficient to cope with our current climate and even less with the greater weather extremes forecast. Areas for action closest to the CPP’s remit and ability to control or influence:Page 60
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The principles and approach guiding the Strategy are: An enabling strategy, rather than creating new duties or replacing existing ones, it identifies gaps and opportunities, especially those made possible by working together. Alignment with the CPP priorities of: Transport Infrastructure , Housing and Community Wellbeing, which in turn are aligned to requirements in our national climate programmes. Embracing diversity, to recognise significant variation among our communities, places and landscapes, and that we are being affected by climate change in multiple ways. Focussing on common challenges across the region, such as the length and vulnerability of transport links, and our low population density that can make it harder to secure funding. Adapting as we build our understanding of the risks and opportunities we face, taking into account local knowledge and also local variations and capacity to adapt. In addition to incremental steps to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and transitional steps to enhance our capacity to adapt, there is also a transformational component: as we improve our ability to cope with climate needs we also improve our current circumstances. An example of this sort of transformational change is the importance of developing our local economy through developing appropriate local skills, produce and markets and the housing, energy and other infrastructure to support them. This reduces our transport and waste emissions at the same time as reducing our dependence on vulnerable, extended transport links and enables us to add value locally and reduce economic leakage, at the same time as supporting transformational growth sectors such as energy and valuing our natural capital. Engaging communities through networks of community champions linked to Climate Hubs centred on the four Argyll & Bute administrative areas. Developing resilience by developing skills and capacity to adapt to ongoing change alongside longer term transformational capital projects. Ensuring a socially just transition to a climate ready future: as we prepare for the impacts of the changing climate we do so in ways that are fair and tackle inequality. For more information please contact Andy Macpherson Climate Change Project Manager Argyll Countryside Trust andy@act-now.org.uk act-now.org.uk/cpp Page 61
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Page 1 of 9 Argyll and Bute Climate Action: A Climate Change Strategy for Argyll and Bute Climate Change Working Group 4 March and 9 April 2025. Discussion Document: Sample Action Plan The CPP Management Committee approved the draft climate change strategy at its meeting of 6 December 2024, with a set of priority Areas for Action identified, and the focus for the remainder of the funded period (to end October 2025) on developing the Action Plan. The priority Areas for Action are • Transport and Infrastructure • Policy Influence • Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain • Risk Assessment • Resilience/Carbon Literacy • Crosscutting/Other A sample Action Plan for discussion is provided below, in a format used by a range of current plans across the CPP. The actions in this are samples and are not offered as a complete set. They are drawn from • Examples from CPP partners’ existing climate plans and Climate Change Duty reports; • Examples from other CPP partners’ plans; • Suggestions made by Climate Change Working Group, and wider CPP members and stakeholders. It is proposed that the final action plan should comprise priority actions within the CPP’s scope to control or influence, with an appendix listing all known actions in the region. Request to the Climate Change Working Group Remembering that the CPP is “the group of organisations and community representatives working together to achieve improvements across Argyll and Bute in ways which promote prevention, reduce inequalities and build community capacity”, and the Climate Change Working Group’s remit to share expertise and knowledge to support the development and delivery of the Argyll and Bute Climate Action Strategy and Action Plan, CCWG members are asked to consider two questions in the World Café session on Tuesday 4 March: • What do you think are the three most important climate actions for the CPP? • Who should lead on those actions? Page 63
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Page 2 of 9 Area for Action: Transport and Infrastructure • Addressing demand and impacts of better transport infrastructure to reduce reliance on private cars and provide for those who do not have a car. • Enhancing communications and grid infrastructure through maximising decarbonisation and renewable energy opportunities. • Natural capital: managing our green and blue infrastructure to reduce emissions and support resilience What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale TI1 Grid constraints Identify areas with available grid capacity and prioritise projects in these locations. LHEES TI2 Grid constraints Identify the LHEES priority areas impacted by grid constraints. LHEES TI3 Grid constraints Develop plans and investment streams to resolve grid constraints in LHEES priority areas. LHEES TI4 Decarbonisation Pathways Consider how locally generated electricity that cannot be exported to the grid could be utilised. TT5 Decarbonisation Pathways Investigate decarbonisation pathways using emerging technologies or existing technologies in new ways TI6 Develop and Implement Waste Strategy Implementation of the Waste Strategy transitioning to Landfill ban compliant Residual Waste Recovery solutions by 2025. A&BC TI7 Promote the Waste Hierarchy through community Education Reduce amount of waste and improve recycling rates TI9 Heat Networks Evaluate the feasibility of the proposed heat networks described in the LHEES strategy. RSLs, LDP, LHEES TI20 Heat Networks Prioritise viable heat networks and support the implementation of the most viable ones. RSLs, LDP, LHEES TI21 Heat Networks Promote and facilitate the implementation of shared ground loop opportunities. RSLs, LDP, LHEES TI22 Nature Networks Address vulnerability and potential mitigation and adaptation opportunities with Argyll’s natural heritage Page 64
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Page 3 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale TI23 Rainforest restoration Work with landowners, land managers and communities to protect and restore rainforest at landscape scale ACT/ASR TI24 Peatland restoration Work with landowners, land managers and communities to protect and restore peatlands at landscape scale ACT/NS TI26 Develop natural infrastructure pilots Eg options for land management to reduce flood/landscape risk to vulnerable settlements and infrastructure TI27 Work in partnership with land owners and land managers to manage urban drainage proactively Local flooding caused by debris from land management activities blocking drainage Area for action: Policy Influence Influencing national and regional public and non-public policies through the CPP’s collective voice in a way that recognises Argyll & Bute's distinctive geography and population. What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale PI1 Liaise with Scottish Government on rural policy considerations Fit of national policies with Argyll and Bute geography, economy and demography CPP PI2 Liaise with central government over telecoms resilience: Digital switchover Widespread community concerns over resilience of replacement to copper landlines CPP/C& BC PI3 Liaise with service providers over telecoms resilience: Example of ensuring backup generators and fuel where necessary for telecoms masts PI4 Grid Capacity Current lack of grid capacity seen as barrier to renewables and decarbonisation across Argyll PI5 Community Benefit/Shared Ownership of Renewables Development of revenue streams to support local empowerment and regeneration through circular economy PI6 Community Benefit/Shared Examples from Norway of shared ownership of fish farms, often run by parent Page 65
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Page 4 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale Ownership of local industry companies to those operating in Argyll P17 Just Transition Identify suitable decarbonisation approaches for remote rural and island communities. P18 Just Transition Maximise funding and investment in remote rural and island decarbonisation projects. Economic Develop ment, LHEES, SG P19 Explore potential for forest crofts To help address trends of depopulation and ageing population. Area for action: Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain Increasing opportunities for individuals to gain the skills required to deliver climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Promoting opportunities for climate mitigation, adaptation and community wealth building through improving circular economies within Argyll & Bute. These were originally two separate items, Skills Development and Procurement & Supply Chain, but they have been merged here in line with the conventions across a range of CPP and wider partners. What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale SPSC1 Identify groups best place to lead on skills development Establish clarity among large number of stakeholders Employability/Skills Development Partnership, SDS SPSC2 Climate Education Pathways Address training and qualification gaps to enable young people to live and work in green sector in Argyll A&BC, ACT/ABCAN SPSC3 Skills and Supply Chain Support the development of the supply chain while also identifying skills required for energy efficiency and heat decarbonisation. SPSC4 Food & Drink - Compile a list of all courses offered by colleges and survey businesses to ensure offer matches needs SDS Page 66
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Page 5 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale SPSC5 Food & Drink Ensure the needs of the industry are recognised in the Regional Skills Investment Plan - engage with sector to identify skills gaps SDS SPSC6 Audit of skill greening opportunities Establish potential for green skills training to enhance employability and skills available to complement mainstream skills SPSC7 Rainforest squad Empower forestry trainees with transferable skills ACT SPSC8 Identify community wealth building opportunities in public procurement Support transformation of local economy to more circular and less extractive; enhance opportunities to create and add value locally; Community Wealth Building working group SPSC9 Identify opportunities to reduce transport mileage associated with procurement Reduce road miles through developing local supply and value chains, enhancing resilience, reducing emissions SPSC10 Bring low carbon food into public procurement Opportunities to build upon initiatives such as introducing local venison to school meals CPP Procurement Leads SPSC11 Develop capacity to support local markets Community venison larder SPSC12 Develop comprehensive GIS map of food and drink supply chain map of Argyll and Bute. This should include identifying by products and potentially valuable waste streams SPSC13 Increase the proportion of locally produced F&D used by the Public Sector Including ABC & HSCP by establishing gross requirements, educating providers, and using dynamic purchasing CPP Procurement leads SPSC14 Identify and share examples of good practice around Including utilisation of waste materials as feed stock for other processes A&BC Page 67
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Page 6 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale management of food waste SPSC15 Support delivery of the Argyll and Bute Growing Strategy Greater local and community involvement in food production ACT, A&BC SPSC16 Reduce Council use of disposable and single use plastics across all departments and settings Reduce plastic entering waste stream Procurement and Commercial Services, all Council Services SPSC17 Extend and explore pre-ordering for school food to reduce food waste Reduce waste, financial savings Procurement and Commercial Services, all Council Services Area for action: Risk Assessment Deepening our understanding of the risks and opportunities, including economic risks and opportunities, presented by climate change to Argyll and Bute as a whole and to specific communities and sectors. What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale RA1 Scope UK Climate Change Risk Assessment at Argyll level Review of overarching risk at Argyll scale CPP Climate Manager Mar 2025 RA2 Review CPP partner risk assessments where available Make use of existing resource of risk assessments across all partners CPP Climate Manager, CPP partner bodies June 2025 RA3 Community - oriented risk assessment for Argyll & Bute: Support communities developing resilience plans Risk assessment with emphasis on community wellbeing: OLI Area pilot CPP Climate Manager Sep 2025 RA4 Community - oriented risk assessment for Argyll & Bute: Workshops to bring local Importance not only of local knowledge and experience but also extend ownership of CPP Climate Manager Sep 2025 Page 68
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Page 7 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale knowledge and experience into risk assessments risk assessment and resultant plans Area for action: Resilience/Carbon Literacy Promoting carbon literacy and greater resilience, across all CPP sectors to empower individuals to bring about climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive, informed and just way. What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale RCL1 Promote carbon literacy and greater resilience, across all CPP sectors Empower individuals to bring about climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. ACT, A&BC Sep 2025 RCL2 Collaborate with A&BC Resilience on resilience training and messaging Clear and consistent messaging and training ACT June 2025 RCL3 Ensure all communities have up to date emergency/resilien ce plans Major area for CPP influence and agency A&BC RCL4 Establish ACPG sub group to drive resilience action at Area level Maximise available resource to coordinate training and make use of local knowledge, experience and networks OLI ACPG working group Sep 2025 RCL5 Develop register of resilience resources Asset mapping including identifying gaps in provision Resilience working group Sep 2025 RCL6 Identify collective procurement options for vital qualifications and insurance for resilience workers Examples of first aid. chainsaw training, certification and PLI for community members engaged in resilience response RCL7 Engage with CPP partners on critical local infrastructure Example of ensuring backup generators and fuel where necessary for pumped water supply RCL8 Deliver/support delivery of Carbon Literacy training among communities Support informed choices on low carbon and climate readiness ACT RCL9 Sustainable energy resilient communities Enhance community resilience by encouraging communities to CPP Page 69
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Page 8 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale formulate localised “place-based” energy decarbonisation plans. RCL10 Sustainable energy resilient communities Explore mechanisms enabling communities to maximise energy generation benefits in their area. I.e. promote Community wealth building LHEES, Economic Development RCL11 Fuel poverty Prioritise installing heat networks or heat pumps in homes that use direct electric heating. RSLs, Landlords, Homeowners RCL12 Fuel poverty Focus on homes where poor energy efficiency contributes to fuel poverty. ABS Child Poverty Forum LHEES RCL13 Energy Efficiency Measures Engage with private sector building owners and tenants to encourage greater adoption of energy efficiency initiatives ABS RCL14 Energy Efficiency Measures Signposting to enable building owners to identify potential resources to fund energy efficiency works. SG ABC EST HES RCL15 Energy Efficiency Measures in Mixed Tenure Properties Engage with stakeholders in mixed tenure properties to implement energy efficient measures for the entire building. Housing, RSLs RCL16 The community knows it needs to decarbonise Enhance the community's knowledge and consciousness of the necessity to decarbonise. CPP, third sector RCL17 Business decarbonisation requirements Increase engagement with the business community to raise awareness of energy efficiency and heat decarbonisation requirements. BG, A&BS Business Support Area for Action: Crosscutting/Other Encourage individuals, communities and agencies to take multiple actions and to identify new risks and opportunities. What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale CC1 Argyll & Bute Climate Action - develop overarching climate strategy To establish overall trends and priorities for action within the CPP’s agency to CPP Climate Change Manager Oct 2025 Page 70
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Page 9 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale and action plan for Argyll control or influence CC2 Identify pilot projects and funding opportunities in support of climate action To inform climate action appropriate to Argyll’s geography, economy and demographic CPP Climate Change Manager Oct 2025 CC3 Develop Net Zero Route Map Develop a Net Zero Route Map in support of updating and revising the Decarbonisation Plan A&BC Page 71
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