Public reports pack
Argyll and Bute Council · 4 February 2025
Back to Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group — 4 February 2025 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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Kilmory, Lochgilphead, PA31 8RT Tel: 01546 605522 DX 599700 LOCHGILPHEAD 28 January 2025 NOTICE OF MEETING A meeting of the BUTE AND COWAL COMMUNITY PLANNING GROUP will be held BY MICROSOFT TEAMS on TUESDAY, 4 FEBRUARY 2025 at 10:00 AM, which you are requested to attend. Douglas Hendry Executive Director BUSINESS 1. WELCOME AND APOLOGIES 2. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST 3. MINUTES (a) Meeting of the Bute and Cowal Community Planning Group held on 5 November 2024 (Pages 3 - 12) 4. AREA COMMUNITY PLANNING GROUP GOVERNANCE ARRANGEMENTS (Pages 13 - 24) Report by Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council 5. COMMUNITY PLANNING PARTNERSHIP MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE MEETING (Pages 25 - 28) Report by Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council 6. ASPIRING PLACES - COMMUNITY PROJECTS IN ARGYLL AND BUTE (Pages 29 - 38) Presentation by Corporate Support Manager, Argyll and Bute Council 7. PARTNER UPDATES (a) Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Update (Pages 39 - 44) (b) Public Health (Pages 45 - 50) (c) Transport Scotland (Pages 51 - 52) Public Document Pack
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(d) Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface (Pages 53 - 56) (e) UHI Argyll - Rothesay and Dunoon (Pages 57 - 58) (f) Opportunity for Verbal Updates 8. COMMUNITY FOCUS (a) Waterbaby Arts of Dunoon Update by Linda Payne, Chairperson of Waterbaby Arts 9. CLIMATE CHANGE (a) Argyll and Bute Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute (Pages 59 - 114) Report by Andy MacPherson, Climate Change Project Manager (b) Argyll and Bute Climate Action Network - Colglen Community Trust on LLP and CAP Presentation by Mary-Lou Anderson, Bute & Cowal Engagement Officer (c) Opportunity for verbal updates on community based initiatives 10. DATE OF NEXT MEETING The next meeting will take place on Tuesday 6 May 2025 Bute and Cowal Community Planning Group Reeni Kennedy-Boyle (Vice-Chair) Jean Moffat (Chair) Contact: Stuart McLean, Committee Manager - 01436 658717
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MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE BUTE AND COWAL COMMUNITY PLANNING GROUP HELD BY MICROSOFT TEAMS ON TUESDAY, 5 NOVEMBER 2024 Present: Reeni Kennedy-Boyle, Fyne Futures (Vice Chair) Stuart McLean, Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council John McLuckie, Partnerships Lead - Community Planning, Argyll and Bute Council Ailie Law, Community Development Officer, Argyll and Bute Council Councillor Gordon Blair Councillor Peter Wallace Councillor Ross Moreland Becky Hothersall, The Poverty Alliance Sergeant Sophie Marshall, Police Scotland Andy Macpherson, Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust (ACT) Ian Dow, Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust (ACT) Angela Coll, Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership Rhona Altin, University of the Highland and Islands, Argyll Janis Marshall Reilly, Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface (TSI) Ann Campbell, Dunoon Community Development Trust Alan Canning, Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Ian Woodcock, Transport Scotland DL Gordon, Bute Business Improvement District (BID) Rhona Grant, Community Learning Services, Live Argyll Shona Edwards, Community Learning Services, Live Argyll Lucy Sumsion, National Farmers' Union Scotland (NFU) Caroline Cuddihy, Scenic Sandbank Attending: Councillor William Sinclair Susan Donnelly, Corporate Resilience Manager, Argyll and Bute Council Belinda Ruthven, Resilience Officer, Argyll and Bute Council Iain MacInnes, Strategic Transportation Policy Officer, Argyll and Bute Council Luke Frederick Horner, Digital and Projects Support Officer Neil Hammatt, Holy Loch Nature Reserve Andrew Galloway, Local Democracy Reporter, Argyll and Bute 1. WELCOME AND APOLOGIES The Vice Chair welcomed everyone to the meeting. Apologies for absence were intimated on behalf of: Amie Dow, Community Development Officer, Argyll and Bute Council; Melony MacLean, Argyll Community Housing Association; Inspector Bart Simonis, Police Scotland; Councillor Audrey Forrest; Dorothy McDonald, Bute Business Improvement District; and Rhyddian Knight, Friends of Glenan Wood. 2. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST There were no declarations of interest intimated. Page 3 Agenda Item 3a
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3. MINUTE OF THE BUTE AND COWAL AREA COMMUNITY PLANNING GROUP, HELD ON TUESDAY 13 AUGUST 2024 The Minute of the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group meeting held on Tuesday 13 August 2024 was approved as a correct record. 4. COMMUNITY PLANNING PARTNERSHIP FULL PARTNERSHIP MEETING The Group gave consideration to a report which outlined matters discussed during the Community Planning Partnership (CPP) Full Partnership meeting held on 16 September 2024. The report provided information on the Argyll and Bute Employability Partnership Delivery Plan for 2022-25; the CPP initiative to develop a Climate Change Strategy and Framework; the history of Community Wealth Building within the Community Planning Partnership; the key priorities for the new Regional Transport Strategy for the development of transport in the region over the next 20 years; the current housing emergency and the action plan agreed in June 2024 and the proposed Population Health Framework for Scotland which is to be adopted by the Scottish Government, CoSLA, Public Health Scotland and Health Boards. John McLuckie highlighted that the meeting had around 40-45 delegates present and that the majority of conversations were on the 3 priority themes which the Argyll and Bute Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024-34 will focus on, specifically Transport Infrastructure, Housing and Community Wellbeing. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the contents of the report. (Reference: Report by Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council, dated 5 November 2024, submitted) 5. COMMUNITY RESILIENCE Consideration was given to a presentation from Susan Donnelly, Corporate Resilience Manager from Argyll and Bute Council in relation to Community Resilience in Argyll and Bute. The presentation highlighted the importance of communities and individuals harnessing resources and expertise to prepare, respond and recover from emergencies, in a way that complements the work of emergency responders. The presentation also provided information in relation to why Community Resilience is so important, including details of potential risks and statutory sites; how Community Resilience is managed in Argyll and Bute; recent and future workstreams of the Resilience team and ongoing activity across the Bute and Cowal area. The presentation also provided details on how Partners could engage with Argyll and Bute Council in achieving resilient communities across Argyll and Bute. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Presentation by Corporate Resilience Manager, Argyll and Bute Council and Resilience Officer, Argyll and Bute Council) Page 4
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6. ARGYLL AND BUTE HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE PARTNERSHIP (a) Partner Update - Public Health Consideration was given to a public health update from Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership’s Public Health Team on the ongoing wellbeing and prevention activities overseen and delivered by them in Argyll and Bute. The update provided information on the work of the Smoking Cessation Advisers who have been promoting the Stoptober Campaign by raising awareness of the service; the continued work to increase awareness of the five adult screening programmes; the work of the Living Well Networks and the community events held by them; the launch of Year 5 of the Living Well Grants; The Argyll and Bute Joint Strategic Needs Assessment which will be published in November and the Art of Hosting method used to engage with communities. The report also provided information on alcohol and drug prevention and early intervention programmes; work commissioned by Scottish Families Affected by Alcohol and Drugs; ongoing work to support the recovery community in Argyll and Bute and the engagement being taken forward by the Alcohol and Drugs Partnership Support team. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by Health Improvement Senior, Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership and Alcohol and Drug Partnership Coordinator, Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership, dated October 2024, submitted) (b) Public Health annual reports: what does the work of Argyll and Bute Alcohol and Drug Partnership and Public Health mean for Community Planning? The Group gave consideration to a presentation from Angela Coll, Health Improvement Senior, Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership which provided information on the Argyll and Bute Alcohol and Drug Partnership. The presentation highlighted that the mission of the Partnership is to work with and for communities and organisation in Argyll and Bute to prioritise equality, diversity and health and wellbeing and foster environments and partnerships to nurture and support all. Angela also outlined the Partnerships vision for a thriving Argyll and Bute where everyone has the opportunity to live well in vibrant, flourishing communities. Angela asked the Group for feedback on how they would like to receive information on the Partnerships work and how they would want to be involved with the work of the Public Health Team. Reeni Kennedy-Boyle advised that Fyne Futures work with many people with barriers to employment and that information could be fed through the Argyll and Bute Employability Programme. Rhona Grant advised that the Community Learning team undertake a significant amount of partnership working and are looking at partnerships around the new Community Learning and Development Partnership and that she would contact Angela separately. Shona Edwards added Page 5
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that information being provided via Sub Groups would be useful. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Presentation by Report by Health Improvement Senior, Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership) 7. TELECARE AND BROADBAND UPDATE Consideration was given to a presentation regarding the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) from the Strategic Transportation Policy Officer and Digital and Projects Support Officer, Argyll and Bute Council. The presentation provided information on the UK Government Guidance which highlighted that there would still be an option for a ‘landline only’ service as the Communications Act (2003) means all consumers in the UK will have access to a landline service should they choose to do so. Mr Frederick Horner advised that communication providers must not undertake any non- voluntary migration until they have confidence and that they are taking all possible steps to protect vulnerable people throughout the migration process, adding that there have been 4 groups categorised as vulnerable, which are people with visual impairments, hearing impairments, registered disabled or a telecare user. Mr Frederick Horner also advised that should people be categorised as vulnerable then they should contact their provider to advise them of this. It was highlighted that BT are allowing people to retain the same number and providing it for the same cost and for most customers the switch over would be as simple as connecting their phone handset to a router rather than a phone socket on the wall and that customers who don’t have or want broadband will be moved to a new ‘dedicated landline service’. The Group highlighted there concern in relation to the PSTN switch off, particularly for Island users. Mr MacInnes advised that battery back-up units would be provided for those considered ‘vulnerable’ in areas with limited signal and that further mitigation would be explored. Discussion took place in relation to the accessibility of information. Mr MacInnes advised that he hopes that leaflets will be included within the next round of Council Tax notifications and that he would explore options of providing leaflets in different languages. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided and agreed that the Strategic Transportation Policy Officer be invited to a future meeting of the Group to provide further information. (Reference: Presentation by Strategic Transportation Policy Officer and Digital and Projects Support Officer, Argyll and Bute Council) Page 6
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8. PARTNER UPDATES (a) Police Scotland Update Consideration was given to an update which provided information on the ongoing work of the Service and information on serious and organised crime; acquisitive crime; road safety and road crime; violent crime; public protection; the work of the Youth Engagement Officer for Bute and Cowal; the continued work on pro-actively engaging with the public in the locality; Winter Safety campaigns and the work on supporting local businesses through the festive season. Sergeant Marshall highlighted that a Youth Club for Dunoon is currently being established at the Foodbank, 22 Kirk Street, it is hoped it will open early the new year. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by Police Scotland, submitted) (b) Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Update The Group gave consideration to a report highlighting the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service’s (SFRS) FQ2 review of local performance across Bute and Cowal for the period 2024-25. The report included information on the local firefighter training plan; incidents during this period; unwanted fire alarm signals; road and water safety campaigns; community engagement activities; East and West Dunbartonshire and Argyll and Bute Local Senior Officer Activities; and home fire safety. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by Scottish Fire and Rescue Service, submitted) (c) Fyne Futures Update The Group gave consideration to an update from Reeni Kennedy-Boyle from Fyne Futures. The update highlighted that Fyne Futures had been awarded £2500 from the Supporting Communities Fund, which has supported the project around volunteering and food sharing with the programme now in the final few weeks of operation. Reeni highlighted that people of all abilities and ages have taken part in the horticultural activities at sites around Rothesay and Port Bannatyne and that the project has been successful in bringing people together, improving health and wellbeing and tackling food insecurity and poverty with dignity. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. Page 7
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(Reference: Report by Fyne Futures, submitted) (d) UHI Argyll Update Consideration was given to an update from Rhona Altin, UHI Argyll. The update included information on the 2024 Graduation which was held on 27 September in the Queen’s Hall in Dunoon with 75 graduates and their guests in attendance; a coffee morning held on 30 September in the Dunoon Centre with support of the Highlands and Islands Students Association to raise money for McMillan Cancer Support; stalls at community events; English for speakers of other languages (ESOL) qualifications, and a planned open day on 13 November in all centres. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by UHI Argyll, submitted) (e) Argyll and Bute TSI Update Consideration was given to an update from Argyll and Bute TSI. The update provided information on policy activity; local strategic partnerships; Community Wealth Building progress; Internal matters, contracts, sector support and strategic action plan delivery; the Communities Mental Health and Wellbeing Fund Year 4 grant; the continued support given to the Argyll and Bute Climate Action Network and the work of the Wellbeing Development Manager. Janis highlighted that she had successfully ran her first events in Dunoon which was a volunteer conference for the Cowal area with around 45 people in attendance and also a volunteer fayre with around 25 organisations in attendance. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by Argyll and Bute TSI, submitted) (f) Opportunity for Verbal Updates Live Argyll Community Learning Services Rhona Grant highlighted that the Youth Worker in Dunoon is working with the Police Youth Engagement Officer on establishing the new youth club and that they continue with the literacy support, working with people who have barriers and challenges to learning. Rhona advised that the new Community Learning and Development Strategic Partnership Plan 2024-27 is now complete with themes and shared priorities around digital skills; core skills for learning, life and work; health and wellbeing; your voice; the learning offer; and improve how they work as a partnership. Shona Edwards highlighted the work being undertaken on Bute which includes Page 8
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working with adult learners on basic digital skills, which she now has a waiting list for, and the work with the Bute Men’s Group around mental health support. Shona also advised that she is working with Bute Action Group and the Kintyre Youth Action Group to find ways to enhance local youth participation. Committee Manager Update The Committee Manager highlighted that the Governance Arrangements of the Group would be considered at the next meeting, including the membership, advising that the Membership is drawn from public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships operating within the Bute and Cowal area. Mr McLean encouraged partners to refer any individuals or groups who may be interested to contact him regarding their inclusion within the membership. Mr McLean also highlighted a number of Trust Funds which are available within the Bute and Cowal Area including The Third Marquis of Bute’s Silver Wedding Dowry Fund which is available for any girl resident in Rothesay being married in December of any year and The Provost’s Fund (Bute) which is available for the deserving poor of the Burgh of Rothesay. Mr McLean highlighted that both these funds close to applicants on the 22 November 2024. Mr McLean also advised on the availability of The Lamont Bequest which is open to residents of the Parish of Kilfinan with successful individual applicants receiving £50, while those that are applying on behalf of their family receiving £100. It was advised that applications would only be considered if applicants are in receipt of a qualifying benefit and that applications are evaluated quarterly. Dunoon Community Development Trust Ann Campbell highlighted that over the last 18 months, the Dunoon Community Development Trust had been undertaking community engagement work concerning the local place plan and that a meeting would be organised with partners to discuss the responses. Ann advised that the Trusts AGM would be held on the 22 November and encouraged partners to look at their events page ‘What’s on Dunoon’. 9. THE POVERTY ALLIANCE - TAKING ACTION ON RURAL POVERTY Consideration was given to a presentation from Becky Hothersall from The Poverty Alliance on their Taking Action on Rural Poverty project. It was highlighted that the 3-year project is taking a collaborative approach to develop new ways of addressing the rural cost of living in Argyll and Bute and Aberdeenshire, as income based measures do not take account of the higher cost of living in rural and Island Scotland, which is between 15% to 30% higher than urban areas of the UK. Becky advised that the Alliance aims to develop practical, local measures aimed at reducing the rural premium. The presentation also provided information on the ongoing work of the Alliance which included establishing a citizen’s panel of 13 people from across Argyll and Bute and associated next steps; support offered to rural organisations and how to join them and be part of Scotland’s anti-poverty movement. Decision Page 9
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The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Presentation by Development Officer, The Poverty Alliance, submitted) 10. REST AND BE THANKFUL - ONGOING MANAGEMENT Consideration was given to a presentation from Ian Woodcock from Transport Scotland on the ongoing traffic management arrangements at the Rest and Be Thankful. The presentation provided information on the hillside monitoring regime with it being highlighted that daily and weekly monitoring is undertaken by a dedicated engineering team. Ian highlighted work undertaken to ensure continued access to Argyll including a number of projects to improve and enhance the Old Military Road. Discussion took place in relation to the temporary boulder fence and the prospect of two way traffic being reintroduced on the Rest and Be Thankful. Ian advised that Transport Scotland are hopeful of installing fixed debris flow mesh fencing early in the new year which would culminate in the removal of the temporary boulder fence and thereafter the reintroduction of two way traffic. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Presentation by Area Manager, Transport Scotland) 11. COMMUNITY FOCUS (a) Holy Loch Nature Reserve The Group gave consideration to a verbal update from Neil Hammett, Warden Ecologist, Holy Loch Nature Reserve. Neil highlighted that the reserve is managed by a voluntary group and comprises of 24 acres of ungrazed land which they conserve as much as they can. Neil advised that he has now counted 1200 species of insects living within the reserve and that they also have 2 kingfishers living within the reserve which have proved very popular with visitors. It was highlighted that they are part of a network funded by the Welcome Foundation and are hoping to expand the reserve by asking landowners to donate or lease part of their land. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Verbal Update from Warden Ecologist, Holy Loch Nature Reserve) 12. CLIMATE CHANGE (a) ACT's West Cowal rainforest restoration project The Group gave consideration to a presentation from Ian Dow, Woodland Coordinator, Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust (ACT) on the West Cowal Rainforest Restoration project. The presentation provided information on ACT’s structure and projects; the Rainforests Projects elements; the Rainforest Page 10
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Heatmaps and Landscape Context and the Gibellula Zombie Fungus which was found and the publicity of this. Ian also advised that the West Cowal landscape scale habitat restoration project has the potential to provide training, volunteer and education opportunities; boost sustainable tourism opportunities and visitor numbers to the area; increase local opportunities for employment and bring investment to the area; be an exemplar of evidence led habitat restoration and demonstrate how productive land use and connected nature networks can coexist and contribute towards improving the health and wellbeing of West Cowal residents and visitors alike. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Presentation by Woodland Coordinator, Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust) (b) Argyll and Bute Climate Action: developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute Consideration was given to a report providing an update on the Community Planning Partnership’s Argyll and Bute Climate Action Project: Developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. It was noted that the Project Manager was seeking feedback from Partners on the draft Strategy and Action Plan, prior to submitting a finalised version to the upcoming Community Planning Partnership Management Committee meeting in December 2024. Decision The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group: 1. noted the approach and status of the project outlined in the report; and 2. agreed to provide comments and feedback to the Project Manager (andy@act- now.org.uk) following the meeting. (Reference: Report by Climate Change Project Manager, Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust, dated 28 October 2024, submitted) (c) Opportunity for verbal updates on community based initiatives There were no verbal updates provided under this item. 13. DATE OF NEXT MEETING The Group noted that the next meeting of the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group would take place on Tuesday 4 February 2025. Page 11
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Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group 04 February 2025 Area Community Planning Group Governance Arrangements Summary The report asks the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group to review the current Terms of Reference, the membership of the Group and also asks members to note the dates for meetings up until May 2026. 1. Purpose 1.1 The purpose of this report is to confirm the governance arrangements of the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group (Area CPG) specifically the Terms of Reference, membership and note future meeting dates. 2. Recommendations 2.1 Area CPG members are requested to: • Consider and adopt the Terms of Reference submitted in this report (Appendix 1) and to agree that these be reviewed on an annual basis to ensure their ongoing currency and appropriateness for the work of the Area CPG as it develops over time. • Consider and agree the membership of the group as attached (Appendix 2) and to agree that the membership of the group be reviewed on an annual basis to ensure currency and appropriateness for the work of the group as it develops over time. • To note the future meeting dates submitted in this report. 3. Detail 3.1 The Area CPG Terms of Reference were last reviewed and agreed in February 2024. An updated version, which has been amended to Page 13 Agenda Item 4
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reflect some changes in language and terminology, is attached at Appendix 1. 3.2 The membership of the Area CPG was last reviewed in February 2024. The Area CPG are asked to consider whether any changes should be made to the membership, details of which are attached at Appendix 2. 3.3 The membership will be reviewed on an annual basis to ensure currency and appropriateness for the work of the group as it develops over time, however there is provision for additional organisations to join the group at any stage to accommodate local circumstances. 3.4 Historically meeting dates for Area Community Planning Groups are scheduled approximately half way between the programmed meetings of the Community Planning Partnership Management Committees to enable effective and timeous reporting of matters to that committee. Members are therefore asked to note that the meeting dates for the Bute and Cowal Area CPG for 2025/26 will be:- • Tuesday 6 May 2025 • Tuesday 12 August 2025 • Tuesday 4 November 2025 • Tuesday 3 February 2026 • Tuesday 5 May 2026 4. Conclusion 4.1 Given the development of Local Action Plans and the future focus of the work of Area Community Planning Groups the meeting is asked to review and agree the attached Terms of Reference and the current membership. 5. SOA Outcomes Not applicable. The report relates to the administration of the Area CPG. For further information please contact: Stuart McLean, Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council Tel 01436 658 717 Appendix 1 – Terms of Reference Appendix 2 – Membership list Page 14
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 1 Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Terms of Reference: Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group is a sub group of, and reports to, the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership’s Management Committee. It is an unincorporated partnership of agencies and organisations with membership drawn from the public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships that have an interest in Bute and Cowal. Purpose Argyll and Bute is a large and diverse area. Communities inevitably have different issues even within the overall umbrella of a community plan for the whole area. Area Community Planning Groups are the vehicle to ensure that there is effective community planning delivery, as set out in the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015, at a local level by: • Contributing to the oversight role of the whole partnership by highlighting issues of a partnership nature that cannot be resolved locally through the Area Community Planning Group, to the Community Planning Partnership Management Committee • Acting on behalf of the Community Planning Partnership via its Management Committee to oversee the implementation of Area Community Planning Action Plans (known as ‘locality plans’ within the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015) • Acting on behalf of the community to ensure that local concerns and priorities are highlighted to the Community Planning Partnership’s Management Committee Role The role of the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group is to: • Oversee the development and implementation of the Area Community Planning Action Plan for Bute and Cowal • Encourage effective working across community planning partners at an area level • Act as a conduit to ensure that local priorities are met and local issues addressed through partnership working Remit The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group has the authority to: • Contribute to the development of an Area Community Planning Action Plan for Bute and Cowal • Monitor progress of the Area Community Planning Action Plan for Bute and Cowal • Provide the scrutiny role for the Community Planning Partnership within Bute and Cowal, considering regular performance monitoring reports and providing information Page 15
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 2 to the Management Committee by submitting written reports on challenges that cannot be resolved locally; where these challenges relate to partnership working and not single agencies. A representative of a community group or statutory body or business that is not a member of the group may also attend a meeting, with prior agreement from the Chair, to provide additional information should a specific issue of concern to the group be scheduled as an agenda item • Form short term working groups to undertake defined pieces of work as required by the group • Engage with communities within Bute and Cowal to understand their needs • Inform and consult on issues relating to Community Planning at an area level • Contribute to a Community Planning Annual Report for Argyll and Bute on progress on the agreed outcomes and best practice in partnership working Short Term Working Groups Short Term Working Groups initiated by the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group must: • Be approved at a meeting of the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group and its purpose recorded in the minute of the meeting, with clarity on the objective and output of the group and the start and end date of the work • Have a named member of the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group acting as lead officer for the group • Have a list of members of the group agreed at inception • Have an appropriate source of administrative support identified and agreed at inception • Where relevant, have an appropriate funding package identified at inception and a named member of the short term working group undertaking financial responsibility for the initiative • Provide regular reports of activity and progress to the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group; and in updates to the Management Committee Any changes to the above must be approved by the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group and recorded in the minute of the meeting. Equal Opportunities and Fairer Scotland Duty The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group will ensure that equal opportunities are considered in each of their remitted activities, any expected negative impacts are mitigated and that promotion of equal opportunities is central to its ongoing activities. In doing so, the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group will consider the responsibilities placed on it by The Fairer Scotland Duty. This duty places a legal responsibility on particular public bodies in Scotland to pay due regard to (actively consider) how they can reduce inequalities of outcome, caused by socio-economic disadvantage, when making strategic decisions. Criteria for Membership • Membership is drawn from public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships operating within the Bute and Cowal area • Membership is open to all public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships operating within the Bute and Cowal area with an Page 16
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 3 interest in at least one of the outcomes identified in the Argyll and Bute Outcomes Improvement Plan • Organisations can self-nominate, be invited to join or have a statutory obligation to participate • In order to ensure democratic accountability, the Chair and Vice Chair from Argyll and Bute Council, Bute and Cowal Area Committee and, one other Elected Member from an Argyll and Bute Council Bute and Cowal Area Committee Ward not already represented by the Chair or Vice Chair, will sit as members of the group • In order to ensure democratic accountability, community councils situated with in the Bute and Cowal area will sit as a member of the group. Subject to local needs, this may be individual community councils, or by way of a caucus arrangement agreed by the community councils situated within the Bute and Cowal area, or alternatively one community council representing all of the community councils on a rotational basis. The community council undertaking this role will be nominated by the other community councils within the area on an annual basis, or more frequently if agreed locally • In order to comply with legislation which governs community planning in Scotland, some organisations have a statutory obligation to participate in community planning. The organisation will nominate the most appropriate person within their organisation to sit as a member of the group where relevant • In order to reflect the needs of the community and range of activities covered by the Area Community Planning Action Plan, other organisations and partnerships operating within the local area are also able to sit as members of the group • In order to obtain a balanced representation of the above and to ensure a community focussed approach, a ratio of no more than 50% public sector membership should be maintained throughout the lifetime of the group • The representatives ought to be able to speak on behalf of their organisation and where appropriate commit funding and other resources to local partnership activity • Membership should reflect the needs of the community and can therefore change subject to approval by a simple majority vote of the other members of the group Role of Members Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group members have the following responsibilities: • To consistently attend the scheduled Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group meetings. (Consistency in attendance by members is necessary to build momentum and progress the activities of the group) • Appoint a substitute to attend meetings on their behalf if they are unable to attend • To communicate information relating to the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group with other members and officers within their own organisation and other organisations operating within the area of activity they represent • To communicate information relating to their organisations area of activity to other members of the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group at meetings • To raise community planning-related issues (that is issues related to Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership’s Local Outcomes Improvement Plan) on behalf of the community, at Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group meetings • To contribute to the development, ongoing monitoring and review of the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Action Plan • To participate in short term working groups as required Page 17
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 4 Meetings Chair • The Chair and Vice Chair of the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group will be elected by the members of the group and will be appointed for a period of two years • The outgoing Chair and Vice Chair can stand for re-election at the end of the two-year period. • However, no one person can serve in the role of Chair or Vice Chair for more than two consecutive two year periods • Should either the Chair or Vice Chair resign their position during their term of office, the office bearer must either notify the group in person at a scheduled Area Community Planning Group meeting or contact the Chair in writing, advising formally of their intention to stand down. Members will be advised of the resignation timeously and an election to fill the vacant post will be conducted at the next scheduled Area Community Planning Group meeting • Nominations for the Chair and Vice Chair positions will be proposed and seconded by Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group members. Each member will have one vote and a simple majority vote will determine the outcome of the election process • The elected Chair, or in their absence, the Vice Chair shall preside over the meeting. If both are absent, partners will choose a member from the floor to preside • Members should respect the authority of the Chair who will decide matters of order, competency, relevancy and urgency Quorum • The quorum for a meeting will be 5 • If a quorum is not present within 10 minutes of the scheduled start of a meeting, or if at any point after a meeting has commenced attendance falls below the quorum, the meeting will be declared inquorate • If a quorum is not present, at the Chairperson’s / Vice Chairperson’s discretion, the meeting shall proceed and any decisions taken will be homologated at the next meeting • For purposes of the quorum, participation of partners by video-conferencing or telephone conference links will be considered as present Frequency of Meetings • The Area Community Planning Groups of the CPP will normally meet once each quarter (4 times each year) • These meetings will normally be held in February, May, August and November • Where business requires, further meetings can be called with agreement of the Chair, subject to the required notice being given Conduct of Meetings • Meetings of the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group will be held in public • Observers can only participate in discussion with the agreement of Chair • Members must declare any conflict of interests at the start of a meeting and take no part in the consideration of the relevant item • Observers wishing to participate in discussion must declare any interest in the subject under discussion Page 18
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 5 • All meetings will be minuted and a minute made available through the Council’s website and available from a link through the Community Planning Partnership website • Meetings of the Area Community Planning Groups will be conducted in accordance with the lead partner‘s (Argyll and Bute Council) standing orders for meetings subject to any necessary changes as set out above (mutatis mutandis) Decision making • All members of the group have equal status • Each member has one vote • The Chair retains the casting vote • All decisions must be clearly minuted with a brief summary of the discussion and reason for decision recorded as well as the outcome • The minutes should clearly record who or whatever organisation is responsible for action • Observers and persons attending the meeting in an advisory capacity may provide information but are not part of the decision making process and are not able to participate in a vote Accountability The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group is an integral part of community planning in Argyll and Bute and is accountable to the following bodies: • Full Community Planning Partnership via the Management Committee • Community within its local area Support The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group will be supported by: • A Lead Officer to facilitate and promote the smooth operation of the group and work closely with group members to ensure a supportive structure, which responds to the needs of the members in addressing issues • Administrative support, organising meetings, taking minutes and associated administrative support will be provided by Argyll and Bute Council, Legal and Regulatory Support • A Local Community Development Officer will have a key role, working in partnership with organisations in the support of community groups, organisations and individuals, particularly those who do not traditionally engage in community issues, to participate in local community planning Issue of Papers • The agenda and papers for the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group will normally be issued 7 days prior to the date of the meeting • The Chair can agree to accept late papers • The draft agenda detail will normally be circulated four weeks in advance to allow members to propose items for inclusion • The agenda and papers will be available via the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership website and will be published on the Argyll and Bute Council website. Page 19
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 6 Communications The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group is encouraged to share any best practice in partnership working locally with the wider Community Planning Partnership. Case studies and examples of partnership working making a difference can be sent to cppadmin@argyll- bute.gov.uk to be shared and promoted. For example this may be through the regular CPP e- Bulletin. The CPP e-Bulletin is available to members of the Area Community Planning Groups and sign up is via cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk. Paper copies can be made available and it is downloadable from the webpage. Winding Up The Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group is a sub group of the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership. • If the Argyll and Bute Community Partnership is dissolved, the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group will cease to exist by default • If a review of Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership delivery structure should recommend that Area Community Planning Groups should be dissolved to facilitate a new delivery structure, the decision whether or not to wind up the group will be made by the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership following consultation with the Area Community Planning Groups and Argyll and Bute Council as lead partner for community planning within the area • Area Community Planning Group members may initiate a proposed wind up of the group by submitting a report outlining the reasons why it was felt the group was no longer required, to the Management Committee in the first instance. The decision whether or not to wind up the group will be made by the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership following consultation with Argyll and Bute Council as lead partner for community planning within the area Approved and adopted at the Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group meeting held on 3 March 2015 Amended March 2015 to reflect a change in the meeting cycle Amended March 2016 to clarify procedure if either the Chair or Vice Chair resigns during their term of office and amend number of days meeting papers are to be circulated prior to meeting date Amended February 2017 to clarify procedure if outgoing office bearer wishes to stand for re- election. Amended February 2019 to clarify terms in respect of the Local Outcome Improvement Plan / Area Community Planning Action Plan. Amended February 2020 to clarify Communications, specifically the sharing of best practice and other minor changes to ensure ongoing currency and appropriateness for the work of the Area CPG. Amended February 2021 to clarify language and terminology and to include reference to Fairer Scotland Duty. Amended February 2022 to clarify language and terminology. Page 20
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 7 Amended February 2023 to clarify language and terminology. Amended February 2024 to clarify language and terminology, and to update the default media for the CPP e-bulletin. February 2025 no changes recorded. Page 21
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Appendix 2 Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Groups Membership (incorporating changes in local communities since February 2024). Partner Organisation Contact Name Argyll and Bute Council Councillor Peter Wallace, Councillor Ross Moreland & Councillor Gordon Blair Community Councils Ardentinny, Bute, Cairndow, Colintraive & Glendaruel, Dunoon, Hunter’s Quay, Kilfinan ,Kilmun, Lochgoil, Sandbank, South Cowal, Strachur Police Scotland Chief Inspector Allan Dickson, Inspector Bart Simonis, Sergeant Sophie Marshall Scottish Fire and Rescue Anthony Mallon, Anthony McGloin , Christopher Spence, Ross McDougall Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership Angela Coll NHS Highland Alison McGrory, Caroline McArthur Argyll and Bute TSI Janis Marshall Reilly ACHA Michelle Mundie, Melony MacLean Fyne Homes Janet McAlister Bute and Cowal Living Well Network Dee James Cowal Transport Forum Councillor Daniel Hampsey PA23 BIDs Colin Moulson Dunoon Community Development Trust Ann Campbell, Tom Warren Bute Islands Alliance Jim Osborne Isle of Bute BIDS John Glen, Dorothy McDonald Colintraive & Glendaruel Development Trust Cathleen Russell Skills Development Scotland Susan MacRae Department of Work and Pensions Lynn Campbell Carr Gomm Becs Barker Scenic Sandbank Ltd Sue Mckillop, Iain MacNaughton and Caroline Cuddihy Sandbank Community Development Trust John Parker Argyll and Bute Citizens Advice Bureau Jen Broadhurst Bute Kitchen UHI Argyll Rhona Altin, Sheena Finlay Live Argyll Rhona Grant Addiction Recovery Cafe (ARC) Dunoon Dee James Oakbank Community Inn Sandbank Iain MacNaughton Dunoon Gourock Ferry Action Group Robert Trybis Page 23
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Time For Change Argyll and Bute Angela Anderson Poverty Alliance Becky Hothersall Fyne Futures Reeni Kennedy-Boyle Friends of Glenan Woods Rhyddian Knight Argyll and Bute Climate Action Network (ABCAN) Andy MacPherson Transport Scotland Ian Woodcock Page 24
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Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group 4 February 2025 Community Planning Partnership Management Committee Meeting This briefing relates to the meeting of the Community Planning Partnership (CPP) Management Committee meeting which was held on 6 December 2024. The briefing is for noting and relevant discussion. Summary HIGHLIGHTS Area Community Planning Group (ACPG) Updates Stuart McLean, Argyll and Bute Council, provided an overview of the ACPG reports from the meetings held in April/May, August and November. Stuart thanked the new office bearers that have taken up appointments – Gill Simpson as Vice Chair of Helensburgh and Lomond ACPG, Colin Buchanan as Chair and Julie MacKenzie as Vice Chair of Oban, Lorn and the Isles ACPG and Anne Horn as Chair of Mid-Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands ACPG. Stuart also raised the concerns of the Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands ACPG regarding the negative impacts to local people and businesses due to repeated closures of the A83. Stuart advised that Iain Woodcock, Transport Scotland, had attended the Bute and Cowal, Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands and Helensburgh and Lomond ACPGs to give updates on the ongoing traffic management arrangements on the A83 and improvements to the Old Military Road. The Management Committee noted the concerns raised by the Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands ACPG and hoped that any further frustrations would be alleviated by the details provided by Mr Woodcock. The Management Committee met on the 6 December 2024 via Microsoft Teams. This update provides an overview of the discussion which took place. Reports which were discussed at the meeting can be found by following this link - Agenda for Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership - Management Committee on Friday, 6 December 2024, 10:00 am - Argyll and Bute Council Page 25 Agenda Item 5
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Census / Population Update David Murdoch, Argyll and Bute Council, delivered a presentation on the work on the population and census data from the census / National Records of Scotland (NRS). The Management Committee noted that the population in Argyll and Bute had been gradually declining since 1989 (93,990 people), post-COVID saw a positive trend increasing the net inward migration to the area (however it is too early to forecast if this increase will continue in an upwards trend in the future). David explained how the difference in population estimates from 2011 and 2022 were largely due to changes in how the naval personnel at HMNB Clyde were included, or not, in the 2011 and 2022 census figures respectively. David highlighted that the population in HMNB Clyde is properly accounted as it does impact the area in terms of services being used by the naval personnel – schools, health services etc. David said that in 2043 the projected population in Argyll and Bute would be 73,500 people. The projections also showed an increase to the average population age (46 – 76 years) and the mortality rates of that aging cohort have been reflected in those figures. The age of the working age population is also declining in all four administrative areas. David noted the variance by area of the population under 16, and how the rate of child poverty in Argyll and Bute is 19.4% which is more positive that the Scotland average of 21.8%. However, there are areas in Argyll and Bute were the proportion of children in low income families is higher that the Scottish average, such as Rothesay. Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) 2024 Presentation Saskia Schmitz, NHS Highland, delivered a presentation on the JSNA which detailed the expected future needs of the local population. Included in the presentation was detail on the ageing population in Argyll and Bute, specifically that 27.8% of people over 65 are affected by multiple health conditions. The most common health concerns are cancer, arthritis, coronary heart disease, asthma and diabetes. This will likely lead to a rise in care needs of increasing complexity. The rate of Adult Care home residence in Argyll and Bute is higher than the Scottish average. The highest prevalence condition for those in long-term residential care is dementia and there is an increase in the number of deaths in a homely setting due to dementia. Saskia noted it is difficult to accurately record the number of unpaid carers in Argyll and Bute as not all are registered with carer centres, although recent awareness raising campaigns have shown an uptake in the number of people registering. Currently most unpaid carers are in the age group 35 years and over, although a Page 26
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quarter of all carers are aged 65 and over, showing there may also be a need to provide more support to unpaid carers in the future to support the aging population. Argyll and Bute Council was one of the first to declare a housing emergency. The high cost of homes means only 25% of the population can afford housing here (based on the standard affordable housing ratio of 3.5 x household income). There is a high amount of second homes and ineffective housing stock and the pressure on the market for available homes is highest on our island communities. For social housing, every available property has at least four applicants. Homelessness was reducing, however it has been rising again and may put increasing pressure on our housing / homeless services. CPP Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan Andy Macpherson, Argyll & the Isles Coast & Countryside Trust, pointed to the extensive information available in the meeting pack (link provided above) and gave an overview of where the work is on the strategy, priorities and next steps. The Climate Strategy is broad ranging, including mitigation and adaptation and that is approach sits efficiently with how the Scottish Government is looking to distribute climate change funding. The strategy has been streamlined, and Andy is continuing to work on making the document shorter and simpler. CPP Community Wealth Building (CWB) Short Life Steering Group Takki Sulaiman, Argyll and Bute TSI, presented a recap on the five pillars of CWB and the actions to date. Takki advised that there had been good discussions on CWB at the eight ACPG meetings in April/May and August, and it was discussed at the September CPP Full Partnership. A shared ownership informal best practice group has met 4 times to look at the mechanics of how his could look in terms of community energy / renewable energy schemes. The Council procurement team has also provided excellent information and they are producing a new procurement strategy in early 2025. Good news is that currently 38% of council spend is local, compared to the 28% national average. In February 2025 the CWB Steering Group will host an in-person workshop to produce a summary position statement with a “hyper localised” vision and mission. The group will prioritise recommendations and deliver action plans and explore linkages and opportunities with other strategies. An infographic will be produced to explain how CWB fits with other activities and highlight what role partners can play in the delivery of CWB. Takki advised that the Economic Development Association Scotland have received funding to set up a CWB best practice hub, and an online CWB tool has been set up by the Improvement Service. Argyll and Bute Council Equalities Outcomes Consultation Chris Carr, Argyll and Bute Council, delivered a presentation on the consultation which applies to the Council, Education and licensing board. The consultation is Page 27
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looking to change all the equality outcomes, applying lessons learned from previous outcomes, and apply actions to the new outcomes to facilitate progress reporting. The new outcomes are due to be published at the end of April 2025, and there is a need to consult with relevant groups to develop the outcomes. Chris encouraged partners to promote the consultation to community groups, noting how inclusion and equalities are woven into the Local Outcome Improvement Plan – most closely to the Community Wellbeing priority. The next steps are a public consultation, which will run over the festive period. The responses will then be analysed and amendments made to the outcomes and actions plan as required. Audit Scotland’s Tackling Digital Exclusion Report David Murdoch, Argyll and Bute Council, spoke to the Audit Scotland Report, which was published in August 2024. The aim of the report was to consider how public bodies, including Scottish Government, Councils, NHS and other bodies, understand and are tackling digital exclusion. The report looks at what digital inclusion is, how well the public sector are tackling this issue and how to support improvement to enable digital inclusion. A key message in the report is that digital technologies can bring many benefits and efficiencies, enable people to access services and is an important factor in ongoing public sector reform. Audit Scotland spoke to those with real life experience of digital exclusion and this provided real value to the report. Connecting Scotland has supported over 61,000 households to get online, however this funding has been reduced after the pandemic so collaborative working across organisations is needed to continue this work. Skills development is also needed, with around 15% of Scotland’s adults lacking digital skills. For further information, please contact: Stuart McLean, Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council (01436) 658717 Stuart.mclean@argyll-bute.gov.uk Page 28
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Aspiring Places; Community Projects in Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Groups FQ4 2024/25 Lucy Dunbar – Project Officer Milly Leggett – Project Officer Stuart Green – Project Manager Page 29 Agenda Item 6
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Previous project approach - Area Plans Council Agreed Priorities – November 2022 Corporate Plan 2023 - 2027; Agreed by Policy and Resources Committee – October 2023 Number of locality plans - 8 Purpose & Principles Approach - 3 phases Resourcing and timescales In addition; agreed to reflect any relevant outcomes from the Community Planning Partnership Community Wealth Building Review relevant to the Council in the approach to producing area plans. Page 30
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Project review April – September 2024 April 2024 – Project officers appointed. April 2024 - Change of Administration. CEO request for pause and review of project. ELT appointed as project board. Page 31
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Council Agreed Priorities 2024 – 2027 New priorities agreed September 2024 Includes implementation of Aspiring Places; Community Projects in Argyll and Bute. Page 32
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Council Decision – September 2024 Council agreed to; 1. Rename the initiative as ‘Aspiring Places: Community Projects in Argyll and Bute. 2. Adopt Consul Democracy (a digital tool for citizen participation) 3. Engage with all community groups over the same period of time rather than a phased approach on an area basis; 4. Provide guidance to inform community groups of potential funding opportunities. 5. No longer create the publication of 8 ‘Area Plan’ documents and subject to a trial period, alternatively report to members on; a) the outcomes of the initiative through a formal evaluation and b) future recommendations on the long term viability and retention of the Aspiring Places – Community Projects in Argyll and Bute initiative. Page 33
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Revised Project Vision To create in one place, a comprehensive picture of all community projects to increase the likelihood of collaboration, securing external funding and implementation of projects in a planned approach to place. Page 34
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Aspiring Places: One Digital Space for Community Projects in Argyll and Bute Single engagement phase using an existing and established community a digital tool for citizen participation, CONSUL Democracy . An intuitive and easy to use platform designed for communities to create and share their proposals. A tried and tested platform used by 23 Scottish Local Authorities. Pioneered in Argyll and Bute by Community Development team as part of emergency COVID 19 response, Building Back Better initiative. Currently funded by Scottish Government and supported by COSLA. Open access. Page 35
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Project Scope Aspiring Places will be... Aspiring Places will not... A place to help raise awareness of the range of projects community groups and organisations would like to or are planning to carry out Directly administer funding for projects. However, it will provide signposting to existing information about funding opportunities. One single place that community groups, council officers and elected members can go to, to be able to gain knowledge of all the potential and existing projects within an area. Directly support groups to develop projects and/or create business plans. However, it will include signposting to self-help resources A place for groups who want to carry out similar projects to find each other Be a delivery plan for the council or groups taking part An information source that will help the Council link community projects with funding opportunities when they arise Supersede Council plans and priorities Page 36
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Next steps Pilot Online Platform (December 2024 – February 2025) Pilot with selected community groups Development of Support Resources Launch (March 2025) Evaluation (August to December 2025) Business Case for Future Retention of Site (January to April 2026) Page 37
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Bute, Cowal and Dunoon CPG Briefing Report Q3 2024/25 Performance & Activity Report From: 1st October 2024 To: 31st December 2024 Page 39 Agenda Item 7a
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Introduction Welcome to the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Community Board Performance Report. This performance report is designed to provide citizens, stakeholders and partners with information relating to Community Board based activity undertaken by the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service. Whilst using historic statistical benchmarking data, consideration must be taken of the random nature of fire related incidents and events, and how this can pose difficulties in interpreting emerging patterns and trends. This is of specific relevance where Community Board level data is analysed due to the small number of actual incidents/events that occur in Community Board areas. However, regardless of statistical anomalies, emerging patterns and trends in fire related incidents and events can assist the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service and Community Planning Partners plan and implement preventative intervention initiatives to target reducing fire related incidents and events. Local Firefighter Training Plan Below is a list of subjects the operational crews have been focusing on within this period. Each subject has been covered both practically and theoretically and recorded in the Fire Service Training recording system. Training Subjects October/November/December • BA – Quarterly Wear, Technical & Practical Session • Pump & Ladder Drills • RTC and Extrication Q3 – Cutting Techniques & Casualty Rescue • Water Awareness – Casualty Care • SWAH – Tier 1, Single & Multi Edge Work Restraint • TFOC Farms Module • TFOC Local & Civil Disturbances Module • HFSV Module Page 40
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Accidental Dwelling Fires (ADF) Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Cowal 1 2 0 Dunoon 1.3 2 1 Isle of Bute 1 2 0 Community Board Total 3.3 6 1 ADF Casualties Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Cowal 0 0 0 Dunoon 0.3 0 0 Isle of Bute 1 2 0 Community Board Total 1.3 2 0 Deliberate Secondary Fire Setting Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Cowal 1 2 1 Dunoon 0.7 0 2 Isle of Bute 1.3 2 2 Community Board Total 3 4 5 Fires in Non-Domestic Property Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Cowal 0.3 0 1 Dunoon 0.3 0 0 Isle of Bute 0.7 1 0 Community Board Total 1.3 1 1 Page 41
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Casualties from Non-Fire Emergencies Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Cowal 2.7 2 4 Dunoon 1 1 0 Isle of Bute 0.3 0 1 Community Board Total 4 3 5 Unwanted Fire Alarm Signals Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Cowal 9.7 4 6 Dunoon 6.3 6 4 Isle of Bute 19.7 11 5 Community Board Total 35.7 21 15 Incidents/Activities of Note Drowning Incident Review (DIR) We continue to work with partners across Argyll & Bute to support the Drowning Incident Review. This allows us to work together to establish ways in which we can reduce the risks around our waters in Argyll and Bute. Road & Water Safety campaigns Road Safety: We have worked closely with Oban High School in delivering a Road Safety Presentation, including RTC VR input to pupils who have their driving licence or are in the process of obtaining it. This included valued input from Oban Blue Watch and EWDAB (East & West Dunbartonshire and Argyll & Bute) Community Action Team (CAT). A similar programme has now been timetabled for next year. Oban CAT Team has also worked closely with a pupil from Oban High School who was struck by a car in Oban during a lunchtime last year. The young person (YP) sustained injuries that required surgery. The YP has recovered well and enjoyed a firefighter for a day experience at Oban Community Fire Station. The YP also assisted us in promoting road safety by sharing his story in an interview. This was shared, with permission, on our media page. Page 42
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We continue to work closely with schools delivering vital Road Safety messages, using our road safety floorboards in primary schools. The VR Program will now be made available to secondary schools throughout Argyll & Bute. Several CAT Team members are undergoing Child Seat Training in January. This will see the CAT Team putting on events where people who use child safety seats have the chance to get them checked to ensure they are fitted properly and, with the assistance of Police Scotland, receive road safety advice. We are also working in close partnership with Police Scotland and the Institute of Advanced Motoring (IAM) to develop road safety hubs within Argyll & Bute. Oban, Dunoon and Campbeltown Fire Stations are locations in which this is being developed. Water Safety: We continue to participate in Partnership Approach to Water Safety (PAWS) and our Community Action Team are already delivering Water Safety Scotland Ice Safety presentations across schools in Argyll & Bute. The presentation was delivered through a hybrid approach of face-to-face presentations and online via Microsoft Teams. This allows us to engage with the remote schools throughout Argyll & Bute, including the islands, so that remote and rural schools benefit from the same safety messages as larger schools. Community Engagement Activities • Post Domestic Incident Response (PDIR) following every domestic incident. • Continue to deliver Fire Safety advice via HFSVs (Home Fire Safety Visits). • Working closely with Sensory Impairment officers throughout Argyll & Bute providing much needed assistance to people with complex hearing and sight issues. Equipment is being made available to those in need, along with a HFSV being conducted. • Representation on Multi Agency Risk Assessment Conferences (MARAC) for those affected by domestic violence. • Supporting Developing the Young Workforce through Careers Days in Oban, Tobermory, Lochgilphead, Dunoon and Rothesay High Schools. • Supporting Partnership Approach to Water Safety (PAWS) group and engaging with the public: #RESPECTTHEWATER campaign. • We engaged with community groups utilising the Winter Thematic Action Plan (TAP) • The annual Bonfire & Fireworks Presentations sessions were delivered by CAT in conjunction with Police Scotland to schools across Argyll & Bute, including Dunoon Grammar, Oban High School and Lochgilphead Joint Campus. This approach was met with enthusiasm. We also engaged with remote and rural schools over Microsoft Teams, where the safety message was well received. • We continue to support MCR Pathways in secondary schools. Several SFRS employees give up their time to support young people for an hour a week throughout term time, engaging with and mentoring each young person to make informed choices. • In Oban, the CAT team is supporting Planet Youth engagement. • Our partnership working continues with Oban, Lorn and the Isles Alcohol & Drug Forum, with quarterly meetings being held in the conference room at Oban Community Fire Station. • We continue to work alongside the Ukrainian Multi-Agency Resettlement Programme within Argyll & Bute. • SFRS continues to support Violence Against Woman Group (VAWG) in Argyll & Bute. • In partnership with Sensory Impairment, SFRS are delivering vital safety messages into Sheltered Housing & Independent Housing complexes throughout Argyll & Bute. • SFRS continues to support and assist in Adult Support & Protection (ASP) meetings, alongside partner agencies, to ensure safety measures are in place for vulnerable people throughout Argyll & Bute. • Oban CAT Team has been busy engaging with local Scout Groups, assisting and delivering vital safety information to allow local young people to obtain their Fire Safety Badge and Communication Badge. • Members of the Argyll & Bute CAT Team have been involved in Child Support Training and Trauma Informed Training, delivered in conjunction with partner agencies. • Oban CAT Team, with the assistance of Oban Wholetime Crews, helped the local charity Home Start Lorn to collect and deliver presents to be donated to the local Christmas Appeal in Oban. Page 43
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• Oban CAT and Fire Crews are working closely with the local LGBTQIA+ community. We are showing our support by bringing the Firefighter Experience to them. We have extended the Firefighter Experience Day to allow members of the LGBTQIA+ community the opportunity to come up and learn vital lifesaving skills and understand what it is like to be a Firefighter over several sessions. Firefighter Experience Day: The Oban CAT Team has been working closely with Live Argyll, Oban High School and Developing the Young Workforce (DYW) to develop the Firefighter Experience Day. We have now extended this to a 4-week program. Most of the pupils involved have attendance issues, are care-experienced and/ or have behavioural issues. The programme brings these pupils into a disciplined environment where they work as a team, rely on that team and are pushed out of their comfort zones. They attend the station once a week, learn skills including CPR, Trauma Recognition, Water Safety, Road Safety and Drill Ground Activities. After each session they are given a written assessment. After the 4 weeks, these are checked and marked. This information is collated and submitted to the school and works towards an award. These sessions have proved very successful, to the extent that we are delivering a programme in Dunoon for 10 pupils from Dunoon Grammar in February. We are hoping to develop this programme and bring it to other towns in Argyll & Bute EWDAB LSO Activities • Ongoing On-call recruitment campaigns – Participation in Practical Selection Tests for new candidates as well as successful completion of Task and Task Management by new On-call Firefighters across the area. • SFRS personnel across EWDAB took part in supporting the 16 Days of Activism, tackling gender-based violence against women and girls. • Recruitment process for two vacancies within the Community Action Team, concluded with the appointments of Gerrard Ralston (Salen Volunteer Leader) and Lisa Cox (previously CSA in PKAD LSO) as two new Community Safety Advocates in our team. We extend a warm welcome to them both. • Our Christmas Gift Appeal reached out to partners and communities across Argyll & Bute, allowing us to collect toys to distribute to children, in partnership with Home-Start Lorn. Our thanks to all who supported the appeal. Home Fire Safety Our new Home Fire Safety Visit (HFSV) policy and associated application will go live on Wednesday 12 February. In preparation of the new policy going live, Stations have been managing pending lists and actioning HFSV requests. Referrals for the public and partners We will continue to support our partner agencies, to assist in this move. The current links to CSET (referral platform) will be replaced on our external website, members of the public and partners will then request a HFSV online via the new app. This will go live during February. Social media content and communications to partners will also be issued to highlight the changes to our criteria and processes. We will also invite partners to attend Microsoft Teams training sessions, to support this transition. One of the main highlights being SFRS commitment to protecting personal data in accordance with legislation, it is imperative that all data sharing containing personal information of individuals such as name and address etc., is transmitted to and from us via the new HFSV Portal or by Egress Secure Email. Therefore unfortunately, we are now unable to accept referrals via emails To register for use of the new SFRS referral app, please contact our Safer Homes Team for support. Email - SFRS.HFSVadministrators@firescotland.gov.uk and one of the Safer Homes Team members will be in touch to provide further information. Page 44
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1 Argyll & Bute Community Planning Partnership Area Community Planning Group Partnership update Date: 4 February 2025 Partner update – Public Health The Public Health team would like to share some aspects of their current work. The Argyll and Bute Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA), compiled by the Public Health Intelligence team, was published in December. The JSNA is a systematic approach to assess health and social care needs in the population based on available data. The requirement for the HSCP to consider the needs of the population and service-users is embedded with the Public Bodies (Joint Working) (Scotland) Act 2014. It is an essential foundation to inform commissioning and service planning and provides an evidence base for the next Joint Strategic Plan and Joint Strategic Commissioning Plan. Resources & Publications — Living Well. Community Link Workers The Argyll and Bute Community Links project is expanding in 2025. Recruitment for new Community Link Workers is currently underway. This service is dedicated to assisting individuals facing social, financial, and practical difficulties. It connects people with both national and community-based support, equipping them with the essential resources needed to navigate their situations and access appropriate support and services. https://www.nhshighland.scot.nhs.uk/news/2025/01/new- contract-and-expansion-for-community-link-working-service-in-argyll-and-bute/ Introducing the Mental Health Hub – Living Well We are delighted to announce the launch of Mental Health Hub – Living Well in Argyll and Bute, a new digital resource for you to share with colleagues. This hub is a dedicated space where you can access trusted national support services available across Scotland, with a particular focus on Argyll and Bute. It includes helplines, practical self-help tools, and resources to provide support. Designed to promote mental wellbeing and prevent suicide, the hub aims to make it easier to navigate the vast number of available services. It provides a clear, user- friendly way to signpost to the support available to communities in Argyll and Bute. Developed with input from local organisations, the hub is designed to empower individuals, families, and professionals to access support tailored to local needs. For further details, please contact: olena.mishanina@nhs.scot Tel: 07483320722 Page 45 Agenda Item 7b
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2 Mental Health Awareness and Suicide Prevention Training The Public Health team is proud to continue supporting mental health awareness and suicide prevention training for people who live or work in Argyll and Bute. Several training sessions are scheduled until the end of the financial year: Applied Suicide Intervention Skills Training (ASIST): ASIST training is being run in Islay in January, Oban in February and Bute in March. Ask, Tell Workshops can be delivered online or in person upon request, making them flexible and accessible to suit the needs of communities. For further information on both please email nhsh.ab-sptraining@nhs.scot . Youth Mental Health First Aid Training will run in January, February, and March. Due to high demand, we are also planning an extra cohort in February. To sign up: Book for February Book for March Alcohol and Drugs Partnership (ADP) Prevention and Early Intervention – Planet Youth Planet Youth is all about communities acting in the best interest of children and young people to make Argyll and Bute a great place to live. It is a community-based approach focused on improving young people’s health, wellbeing, and relationships by working with parents, carers, schools, communities and organisations. Planet Youth originated in Iceland, which went from having the highest rates of teen smoking, alcohol and drug use across Europe to the lowest. The Planet Youth team are running a comms campaign from Jan-March/April to promote their health topic leaflets for parents and carers. The Planet Youth team are delivering a ‘Risk and Protective Factors for Children and Young People’ live Webinar for any interested adult community members in A&B. Date tbc: argyllandbute@planetyouth.scot Families Affected by Alcohol and Drugs Scottish Families Affected by Alcohol and Drugs (SFAD) in collaboration with stakeholders are developing a partnership plan informed by gathering evidence from those in services, people personally impacted and professionals working within the community to reduce alcohol and drug harms. The plan will outline priorities to embed a whole family approach through local organisations and services with governance, monitoring and evaluation, and ongoing community engagement. Page 46
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3 Recovery Orientated Systems of Care (ROSC) Lomond and Argyll Advocacy Service provide specific independent advocacy support to people affected by alcohol and drugs with an extended presence in Argyll and Bute. https://laas.org.uk/contact-us/ An analysis of the interviews conducted by Scottish Drugs Forum with families, service providers and people with lived experience of Medically Associated Treatment (MAT) will be submitted to Public Health Scotland in April. The ADP submitted feedback on the consultation of the Right to Addiction Recovery (Scotland) Bill in December. Alcohol and Drug Partnership Strategy and Health Needs Assessment The reviewing and development of the ADP Strategy is almost complete. Led by a steering group, a consultant held 23 stakeholder interviews and three workshops. The final draft will be presented at the next ADP Partnership meeting. In Dec/Jan an online survey was used to gather the views of people living and working in Argyll and Bute asking about community priorities and what differences or changes would indicate that drug or alcohol related harm is being reduced. Alcohol Brief Intervention Training Alcohol Screening and Brief Interventions (ABIs) are effective and evidence-based early intervention for those individuals who are drinking at hazardous and harmful levels. Training dates to learn how to deliver Alcohol Brief are bookable on Turas: https://turasdashboard.nes.nhs.scot/ Naloxone Training Administering Naloxone can reverse the effects of an Opioid Overdose. Training on how to use Naloxone is planned for Helensburgh and Dunoon. For more information, please contact Kirsteen Menzies, Tel. 07900146571. GP Training Bespoke training sessions for GPs, designed in consultation with our GP representative and the Drug Related Deaths group will be provided by the Scottish Drugs Forum. This will cover Gabapentin, Ketamine and Benzodiazepines. For further details, please contact: nhsh.argyllandbuteadp@nhs.scot Screening inequalities grants funding We are delighted to announce that Screening Inequalities funding has been awarded to Argyll and Bute. This is being used to address barriers and facilitate access across the screening and treatment pathway to reduce inequalities in screening and Page 47
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4 improve health outcomes. Small grants were offered to organisations working with the people less likely to participate in the NHS Screening Programmes to promote screening in ways which will benefit their clients, such as to facilitate community events, provide information sessions and make culturally appropriate promotion materials which reflect the needs of communities. End of the Waverley Care contract NHS Highland’s contract with Waverley Care was due to end in December 2024. Following completion of a detailed review and exploration of options for future delivery, a decision was made to bring the services in-house. NHS Highland worked closely with Waverley Care to ensure a smooth transition of services. The Argyll and Bute Health Improvement Team are delighted to announce that Debbie Lees from Waverley Care has joined them, with the remaining staff joining the Health Improvement Team in North Highland. Debbie will bring her experience from Waverley Care to work in Argyll & Bute on developing sexual health promotion and the prevention of poor sexual health. The condoms by post service has transferred to the HIRS Team in North Highland and promotion materials for this service is being printed to be shared. The weblink is: Argyll & Bute HSCP Free Condoms by Post Living Well Networks The existing Living Well Networks (LWNs) are for partners with an interest in building healthy communities. They provide an opportunity for partners to come together to find out what issues matter to local communities; to plan activities and events together; and to network with individuals, services and organisations with an interest in improving health. Argyll and Bute HSCP Public Health team has provided funding for the network coordination time for a number of years. Over the past few years, there have been changes within HSCP structures, including the refreshed Living Well Programme Board and these transformations are continuing. The way people access information and support has also undergone changes as are the opportunities for communities to come to engage and plan community activity. As such, a decision has been made to bring the existing Living Well Network coordination to an end. We encourage the networks to consider their future direction. They can choose to continue without the funded coordination or explore the option of self-sustainability, allowing them to maintain their meetings and ongoing networking. The multi-partner initiative, Community Assets for Living Well is also focused on promoting healthy communities and work is ongoing to explore how this translates into work within local communities. This includes plans to further improve the Argyll and Bute community directory by developing a centralised and accessible platform for health and wellbeing information, resources, support, and services. Health, Page 48
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5 wellbeing and support service information can still be accessed via Argyll and Bute’s Community Directory on https://abcd.scot . We would like to express our sincere gratitude to our past and present coordinators: Dee James/Nicola Hall from Argyll and Bute Rape Crisis, Fiona Kalache/Lynn Johnstone from Mid Argyll Youth Development Services, Tracy Chambers from Kintyre Link Club, and Independent coordinators Carol Flett and Veronica Ferguson. REPORT AUTHOR AND CONTACT Author Names: Angela Coll, Health Improvement Senior Email: nhsh.abhealthimprovement@nhs.scot Page 49
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1 Argyll & Bute Community Planning Partnership Area Community Planning Group Partnership update Date: 4 February 2025 Partner update – Transport Scotland Summary of updates for TS Roads; • Rest & Be Thankful – continuing daily management of the traffic management on this stretch of the A83 to ensure safe passing of the travelling public with regular stakeholder updates advising of changes to the traffic management. There is a final section of debris flow barrier still to be installed at sectors 3a & 3b which is now planned for February, all of which is carried out in full co-ordination with the ongoing ground investigation works which will assist the design of the long term solution (Debris Flow Shelter). • Cairndow – Signing improvements, still waiting for SSE to determine power connection but understand that they now have a way forward with remaining signs ready to be installed when SSE have completed their works. • Emergency works at Furnace (although slightly out with the area of concern for Cowal peninsula) were successfully completed during November 2024 to mitigate river erosion which was presenting a hazard to the operation of A83. This was rectified with the placement of rock bags on the embankment of Leacann Water in order to mitigate any further issues. Other works of note to be carried out before the end of this financial year include; • Re-surfacing works at West of Ardgarten • Bridge works on Fyne Bridge • Drainage works at Loch Fyne Oyster Bar, Succoth Ian Woodcock IEng FIHE BEng (Hons) Area Manager | Roads Directorate Transport Scotland | 2nd Floor - George House | 36 North Hanover Street | Glasgow | G1 2AD | Mobile | 07443 477136 Page 51 Agenda Item 7c
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Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface (TSI) update – Jan 2025 Third Sector Support Advisor (TSSA) Cowal and Bute Janis Marshall Reilly: janismarshallreilly@argylltsi.org.uk Update from: Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface (ABTSI) Third Sector Support Advisor for Cowal and Bute: Janis Marshall Reilly janismarshallreilly@argylltsi.org.uk Facebook page for Cowal and Bute TSI news can be found by clicking here. This update covers the period from 15th Oct 2024 to 24th Jan 2025. TSI activity for quarter three 2024-2025 has included: - CEO Takki Sulaiman’s contribution to TSI Scotland Network’s document calling on The Scottish Government to instigate Public Service Reform with the Third Sector at its heart when preparing its December Budget. Focus was on four asks: 1. Invest in collaborative third sector delivery models to support public sector reform 2. Fairer funding to enable the systems change the Scottish Government seeks 3. Direct funding to communities that is shaped by local people and groups 4. Support the TSI Scotland Network to lead on change and fund it to do so. The budget’s publication demonstrated support for TSI Scotland Network’s asks. However, the method of investment in reform and change was unclear. Argyll and Bute TSI’s CEO Takki Sulaiman’s response is available to read here. - launching Argyll and Bute Resilience and Transformation Fund. - planning Day Services for Older People review. - wellbeing Development Manager; Art of Hosting - promotion of Winter Welcome Spaces - launch of VOY Awards 2025 - supporting member organisations and the wider community - planning for our next business plan and new strategy. Cowal and Bute Janis Marshall Reilly: Third Sector Support Advisor (TSSA) for Cowal and Bute - supporting local organisations with funding, crisis management, governance matters and event planning. - co-ordination and hosting of Volunteer Conference Cowal. Morning session for Third Sector colleagues had 43 in attendance, covering 29 organisations. Page 53 Agenda Item 7d
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Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface (TSI) update – Jan 2025 Third Sector Support Advisor (TSSA) Cowal and Bute Janis Marshall Reilly: janismarshallreilly@argylltsi.org.uk Afternoon marketplace event (open to the public) had 29 organisations take a stall. - panel member for Argyll and Bute Befrienders Interviews re new Bute and Cowal post. - attended OSCR training regarding Changes to Charity Law in Scotland. - attended local meetings and events including Live Argyll Active Schools Walk and Talk, All Our Children Network meeting, Bute and Cowal Community Learning and Development Partners meeting, Community Justice Interventions and Support Directory meeting, Argyll and Bute Visitor Levy update, Poverty Alliance Breakfast Briefing regarding Rural Transport, Challenging Rural Poverty in Scotland and Taking Action on Rural Poverty update workshops, Adult Health and Wellbeing Network meeting, ALIenergy Fuel Poverty Awareness Session. Funding - Argyll and Bute Resilience and Transformation Fund (closing date 3rd February 2025) The TSI (on behalf of the Argyll and Bute LAG) launched a small, targeted fund to support Argyll and Bute’s Third Sector Organisations (TSOs), specifically those classified as community anchor organisations, to transform the way they work at a time of significant financial challenge. There is currently up to £50,000 available in five awards of up to £10,000. Applications can be via one of two funding routes: a. The Resilience Fund – This fund is suitable for groups who are currently facing a funding shortfall. Up to £2,500 will be spend on specialist support and consultancy to change the focus of a business model and reduce costs to a sustainable level in the short term. The balance up to £10,000 (including the £2,500 on specialist support) can be used to fund interim operating costs to ensure an organisation’s continued solvency and survival. b. The Transformation Fund - This fund is suitable for groups who are likely to face a funding shortfall within the next 12 months but have time to explore a new approach to their sustainability. Up to £2,500 will be spend on specialist support and consultancy to change the focus of a business model. The balance up to £10,000 (including the £2,500 on specialist support) can be used to fund costs that will help to facilitate an organisation’s transformation towards a sustainable business model. Further info on the fund can be found by clicking here. Other sources of funding can also be accessed via the same website: www.argylltsi-funding.org.uk Page 54
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Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface (TSI) update – Jan 2025 Third Sector Support Advisor (TSSA) Cowal and Bute Janis Marshall Reilly: janismarshallreilly@argylltsi.org.uk Day Services for Older People Review In March 2024, the Integration Joint Board requested a full review of day services/supports for older adults in Argyll and Bute. The direction was to carry out this review removing the threat of cuts or service closure from the existing services. However, the financial situation of the IJB (in line with other IJBs) is one of increasing costs and demands and reduced allocation of funding, meaning that overall savings need to be made. The timeline is to complete the review in mid-2025. The TSI on behalf of the HSCP has commissioned a local research agency (GLIC) to map and audit services with the intention of supporting the development of a new community-based approach (to Day Supports and Day Services for Older Adults in Argyll and Bute) that reduces the disparities in service provision across different localities. A wide stakeholder group has been established to oversee the research and make recommendations. This group includes: representatives of existing services, carers, third sector services, staff, older adults, dementia services and the HSCP. Wellbeing Development Manager The TSI hosts a Wellbeing Development Manager post funded by the HSCP and Macmillan Cancer Support under the Living Well Workstream. The postholder is focussing on developing ways of working that promotes wellbeing in communities by building sustainable and trusting local partnerships. There are currently three workstreams. The first, called the Art of Hosting, focuses on spreading the tools needed to have meaningful conversations about the choices, challenges and solutions facing our communities. The second is bringing about a Walking Development post in conjunction with Paths for All. The third workstream is looking at building joint and integrated referral and information processes to make it easier to access support and this project is called One Front Door. Click this link for more information: Living Well Partnership Winter Welcome Spaces A list of venues providing access to winter welcome spaces can be found here: www.argylltsi.org/warm-spaces The site is searchable via each of the four administrative areas of Argyll and Bute Page 55
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Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface (TSI) update – Jan 2025 Third Sector Support Advisor (TSSA) Cowal and Bute Janis Marshall Reilly: janismarshallreilly@argylltsi.org.uk Volunteer of the Year Awards 2025: nominate now! Nominations for Volunteer of the Year 2025 are now open. This annual opportunity to celebrate the vital contribution of Volunteers across the region will this year take place on the 6th of June at Rosslea Hall Hotel in Helensburgh. Nominations for 17 awards across 13 categories will close on 18th April, so do spread the word! The awards include categories kindly sponsored by Live Argyll and Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership. CLICK HERE TO: Meet the Team - Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface CLICK HERE TO READ ALL ABOUT AND JOIN THE: Employee/Volunteer Assistance Programme END OF UPDATE Page 56
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Principal and Chief Executive: Martin Jones www.argyll.uhi.ac.uk UHI Argyll is a trading name of Argyll College Ltd a charity registered in Scotland No SC026685 Registered address: West Bay, Dunoon, PA23 7HP UHI Argyll – Rothesay and Dunoon: Update for Bute and Cowal Area Community Planning Group 21/01/2025 Semester two Semester began on Monday 20th January. We are offering the following January-start courses at our Dunoon or Rothesay centres (some other centres have additional practical courses on offer): • NQ Access to Further Education, SCQF level 4. Full time, short course (3 days/week for 11 weeks). Available at all UHI Argyll centres. • NC Horticulture, SCQF level 5. Full time, single semester course (3 days/week for 17 weeks). Available at Dunoon centre. • NPA Games Development, SCQF level 5. Part-time (Thursdays) for 17 weeks. Available at all UHI Argyll centres. • PDA Technology Enabled Care, SCQF level 7. Part-time: 4 hours/week for 17 weeks. Available at all UHI Argyll centres. • Health and Social Care: Administration of Medication PDA. Part-time for 6 months. Available at all UHI Argyll centres. As always, there is the option to infill onto many of our other courses that run for the full academic year. Applicants can choose a single unit or several units and should contact their local centre to enquire about this. Commercial courses We are offering commercial courses on the following dates: • Personal Licence: 3rd March (full day), 7th April (full day), 9th and 16th April (evenings) • Elementary Food Hygiene: 10th March (full day), 31st March (full day), 12th and 19th April (evenings), 28th April (full day) First Aid training can be booked by contacting the local centre. Open events/taster sessions Instead of a single open day, we held taster events so that potential applicants could find out more about our courses. Below is a list of events that we held prior to the start of semester two: • Garden Design workshop (online) • Plant propagation workshop (Helensburgh) • Horticulture Courses at UHI Argyll, information session (online) • Maritime Rope Workshop (Oban) • Introduction to Plantsmanship (online) • Access to Further Education, information session (online) • Computer Games Development workshop (online) Page 57 Agenda Item 7e
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Principal and Chief Executive: Martin Jones www.argyll.uhi.ac.uk UHI Argyll is a trading name of Argyll College Ltd a charity registered in Scotland No SC026685 Registered address: West Bay, Dunoon, PA23 7HP We also have an online event scheduled for various dates later in the academic year: • Childhood, Youth, Community Development and Children’s Rights online workshop: 6th March; 1st May; 7th August; 2nd October. Timings for all dates are 6.30-7.30pm. Sheena Finlay Assistant Centre Manager (Rothesay) sheena.finlay@uhi.ac.uk Rhona Altin Assistant Centre Manager (Dunoon) rhona.altin@uhi.ac.uk Page 58
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Date: 22 January 2025 Argyll and Bute Climate Action: developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. 1.0 Purpose The purpose of this report is to provide an update on the Community Planning Partnership’s Argyll And Bute Climate Action project: developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. 2.0 Recommendations The CPG is asked to note the approach and status of the project outlined in the report and to provide any comments or feedback to the project manager. 3.0 Background The CPP sub-group working on climate change is the Climate Change Working Group. Its current focus is producing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust (ACT) are the employing body for the Climate Change Project Manager leading on the process, and the post (0.8 FTE) is funded by the CPP from end October 2023 to October 2025. This update sets out the current position. 4.0 Detail 4.1 Progress The draft strategy was presented to the Climate Change Working Group, the CPP Full Partnership and Area CPGs over September to November 2024, with requests for feedback and comments including appropriate engagement opportunities. Based on the feedback received, a revised draft was submitted to the CPP Management Committee. The CPP Management Committee approved the revised draft at its meeting of 6 December 2024, and copies of the executive summary and appendix of local climate Page 59 Agenda Item 9a
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trends accompany this update. The full set of appendices can be found at https://www.act-now.org.uk/cpp The intention thereafter is to work up the action plan and pilot projects, including seeking funding for projects, with partners across the region. This is where input at Area level would be especially useful and the project officer would welcome advice from Area CPGs on the most appropriate groups in their respective areas to contact. The CPP agreed that the strategy should align with the three CPP outcomes (Housing, Transport Infrastructure and Community Wellbeing), that it should focus on action within its own agency to control or influence, and, in line with the risk scoping and gap and opportunity analysis, priority areas for action should be: o Infrastructure (including natural infrastructure) o Policy Influence o Procurement and Supply Chain o Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training o Risk/Economic Assessment o Skills Development o Crosscutting/Other The Management Committee noted that development of the action plan would likely reflect partners’ capacity to engage over and above their normal core work, and agreed that the Committee should provide direction as the action plan develops on the balance between playing to the CPP partners’ strengths or seeking to address gaps and weaknesses. The Management Committee We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate 4.2 Next Steps Immediate next steps are: • Produce a short easy-to read summary plus a version suitable for young people. • Develop a broader programme of engagement, including Area level • Ongoing mapping, local impact projections and risk assessment • December – February action plan and project development, ongoing risk assessment informed by engagement • March first draft of action plan to Climate Change Working Group Andy Macpherson, Climate Change Project Manager For more information, please contact: Andy Macpherson andy@act-now.org.uk Page 60
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Executive Summary Climate change is one of the most serious threats that we face in Scotland. Rising temperatures, drier summers, wetter winters, sea level rise, and an increased risk of flooding, will all affect our lives. There is a global need to take action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions which are responsible, but changes in climate will not be completely eliminated by these actions. We also need to find ways of adapting to the effects of climate change. We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate. It has been developed through an engagement process managed by the Argyll Countryside Trust on behalf of Argyll & Bute’s Community Planning Partnership, Climate Working Group, with funding thanks to Argyll and Bute Council, NHS Highland, NatureScot and Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface. A climate change strategy for Argyll & Bute Argyll & Bute Climate Action It forms part of Argyll & Bute’s Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024 – 2034 which focusses on improving the outcomes of Transport, Housing and Community Wellbeing. This is a strategy and action plan for Argyll & Bute. A region wide, community led, net-zero, climate change resilient, adaptation plan, in support of the vision that: Page 61
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The heavy rain in early October 2023 caused £15m damage to infrastructure (mainly roads and bridges) in parts of Argyll & Bute Now and into the future, we want a thriving Argyll & Bute where our collective choices and actions enhance our continued wellbeing in a changing climate. Our climate change strategy seeks to tackle climate change, by working together to be: Climate friendly: Reduce Argyll & Bute’s greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change (mitigation). Climate Ready: Resilient and adapted to unavoidable climate change (adaptation), and Climate Just: Ensure all of our communities are included. 80% of the population of Argyll & Bute lives within 1km of the coast (97% within 10km of coast), and we have over 200km of road within 25m of the sea (at high tide). Page 62
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Climate Risk Impact Warmer, wetter winters: Increased rainfall volume and intensity Increased landslides, flooded water courses and more surface water Hotter, drier summers: higher average and higher peak temperatures, increased heatwave frequency and longer drought periods higher risk of human and animal heat stress, illness and mortality, crop failure, wildfires and freshwater scarcity More severe, and more variable weather events: Less predictable but more frequent storms, increased variability in wind speed and direction, higher peak wind speeds, higher rainfall intensity windblow, forest damage, road blockage, power line damage/power cuts, property damage, flooding, landslides. Sea level rise and storm surges: increased coastal erosion coastal infrastructure damage and loss, coastal retreat or protection cost Multi-hazards affecting people, species and habitats: Combination of hazards compounding climate risks and impacts. Single actions less likely to address mitigation or adaptation. Solutions needs to maximise multiple benefits and work with natural processes. Increased climate unpredictability Climate forecasts less predictable, actions need to be based on worst-case scenarios, resilience more dependent on agile and diverse actions. Our strategy identifies the key climate risks impacting on Argyll & Bute and the areas in which we can take action to address them: Page 63
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Areas for Action Infrastructure Addressing demand and impacts of better transport infrastructure to reduce reliance on private cars and provide for those who do not have a car. Enhancing communications and grid infrastructure through maximising decarbonisation and renewable energy opportunities. Natural capital: managing our green and blue infrastructure to reduce emissions and support resilience. Policy influence Influencing national and regional public and non-public policies through the CPP’s collective voice in a way that recognises Argyll & Bute's distinctive geography and population. Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Promoting opportunities for climate mitigation, adaptation and community wealth building through improving circular economies within Argyll & Bute. Risk/Economic Assessment Deepening our understanding of the risks and opportunities, including economic risks and opportunities, presented by climate change to Argyll and Bute as a whole and to specific communities and sectors. Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training Promoting carbon literacy and greater resilience, across all CPP sectors to empower individuals to bring about climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Skills Development Increasing opportunities for individuals to gain the skills required to deliver climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Other/crosscutting Encourage individuals, communities and agencies to take multiple actions and to identify new risks and opportunities. With fuel poverty nearly 50% higher than the Scottish average, and higher again in more rural areas, and private water supplies ten times the national average, our housing is largely insufficient to cope with our current climate and even less with the greater weather extremes forecast. Areas for action closest to the CPP’s remit and ability to control or influence:Page 64
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The principles and approach guiding the Strategy are: An enabling strategy, rather than creating new duties or replacing existing ones, it identifies gaps and opportunities, especially those made possible by working together. Alignment with the CPP priorities of: Transport Infrastructure , Housing and Community Wellbeing, which in turn are aligned to requirements in our national climate programmes. Embracing diversity, to recognise significant variation among our communities, places and landscapes, and that we are being affected by climate change in multiple ways. Focussing on common challenges across the region, such as the length and vulnerability of transport links, and our low population density that can make it harder to secure funding. Adapting as we build our understanding of the risks and opportunities we face, taking into account local knowledge and also local variations and capacity to adapt. In addition to incremental steps to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and transitional steps to enhance our capacity to adapt, there is also a transformational component: as we improve our ability to cope with climate needs we also improve our current circumstances. An example of this sort of transformational change is the importance of developing our local economy through developing appropriate local skills, produce and markets and the housing, energy and other infrastructure to support them. This reduces our transport and waste emissions at the same time as reducing our dependence on vulnerable, extended transport links and enables us to add value locally and reduce economic leakage, at the same time as supporting transformational growth sectors such as energy and valuing our natural capital. Engaging communities through networks of community champions linked to Climate Hubs centred on the four Argyll & Bute administrative areas. Developing resilience by developing skills and capacity to adapt to ongoing change alongside longer term transformational capital projects. Ensuring a socially just transition to a climate ready future: as we prepare for the impacts of the changing climate we do so in ways that are fair and tackle inequality. For more information please contact Andy Macpherson Climate Change Project Manager Argyll Countryside Trust andy@act-now.org.uk act-now.org.uk/cpp Page 65
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Sniffer, Edinburgh Climate Change Institute, High School Yards, Infirmary Street, Edinburgh EH1 1LZ, Scotland, UK, T: 0131 651 4674 E: info@sniffer.org.uk W: www.sniffer.org.uk : @SnifferScotland Scottish Charity No SC022375, Company No SC149513. Registered in Edinburgh. Registered Office: Caledonian Exchange, 19a Canning Street, Edinburgh, EH3 8HE Argyll and Bute Climate Trends Analysis September 2024 Page 67
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1https://themetoffice.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/506ff7d53c884badb0d8fd36d6280a91 2https://www.dynamiccoast.com/ 3https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/15/- 4.9542/55.988/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=tr ue&elevation_model=best_available&refresh=true&water_level=1.0&water_unit=m Introduction This report sets out the approach to, and key findings from, analysis of climate observations and trends from the Argyll and Bute region. The data used came from several sources. The main source of climate trends and projections data came from the 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) User Interface data download site. These data were supplemented with information from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer1. The analysis within this report was supported by using information from the Dynamic Coasts platform2 and the Climate Central websites Coastal Risk Screening Tool that provides maps of land below 1m above the current high tide line3. Given current emission pathways and the challenges in implementing the Paris agreement, the RCP8.5 scenario was used in this analysis, representing a high-emissions scenario. This approach is consistent with the emerging methodology of the 4th UK Climate Change. Projection data was analysed out to 2080, with sea level rise looked at to 2100. The analysis looked at Argyll and Bute at several spatial scales, including regionally (the river basin region), the local authority boundary, and sixteen key settlements across the area. Methodology The approach taken to the data analysis for the climate trends and projections from Argyll and Bute follows analysis undertaken by other Place-Based adaptation partnerships in Scotland such as Climate Ready Clyde and Climate Ready South East Scotland. The overarching aim is to understand the key observed climate trends in recent history in the area, and what the latest climate models project as being experience between 2023 and 2080. The approach was adapted to suit the Argyll and Bute region and the following section sets out the detailed methodology used and explains the reasoning behind the options selected for scenarios, scale, metrics and variables. Data variables Spatial scales Climate projections were looked at for three main spatial scales: • The Argyll river basin region • The Argyll and Bute Local Authority area • Settlements – sixteen key settlements across the region identified by the Climate Change subgroup of the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership. Page 68
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The UKCP data interface allows you to generate maps, plots and download the raw data for various climate variables, RCP scenarios, geographical and temporal scales. However, not everything is available at all scales, and whilst it is possible to generate maps for the full Argyll and Bute region, the data can only be downloaded at either a “West Scotland” Administrative Boundary scale, or at the Argyll river basin scale. The River basin omits a small part of the region at the eastern side, but the data at this scale was more representative of Argyll and Bute than the whole of West Scotland which also includes all of Ayrshire, D&G, Greater Glasgow and Falkirk. Most data are available at a 2.2km scale, meaning that it is accessible for the settlements used to generate graphs of trends. However, the maps generated by the UKCP user interface use the regional level data and therefore do not show any more detail for the settlements than the regional maps. Therefore, maps for the settlements have not been created. In addition to this, the data is not available for individual local authorities, and the maps again show the same outputs as the regional maps, therefore trends and projections for the Argyll and Bute local authority boundary have been generated using the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer. Emissions scenarios The analysis used the RCP8.5 projections. This is a high emissions scenario and meets the recommendations of the CCRA UK Climate Change Risk Assessment to assess the risks for a 4°C warming. RCPs, or Representative Concentration Pathways, are scenarios for the future concentrations of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere (not emissions at that point in time) and cover a range of assumptions around future population, economic development and impacts of actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions towards international targets. Each pathway drives a different range of simulated global mean temperature increases over the 21st century and are used to model possible future climatic conditions. They range from a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) which models the future if global warming is limited to 1.6°C, to a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) which models the future climate if global warming reaches 4.3°C compared to the 1850-1900 baseline. The information from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer, however, uses Global Warming Levels (GWLs) rather than RCPs, with data provided for three future GWLs (1.5, 2, 4°C). Whilst not exactly comparable, GWL4°C is an approximation of a lower level RCP8.5 scenario, reaching a 3.5°C temperature increase by the 2080s. Therefore, information for GWL4°C has been used for the local authority level analysis. Climate variables Three key climate variables were looked at for all three spatial scales. They are: • Annual mean air temperature (°C) • Precipitation rate (mm/day) • Sea level rise (only applicable to the settlements with a coastline.) In addition to this, seasonal data was looked at for the whole region, but not individual settlements, due to the timescales involved in downloading and processing this data: Page 69
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• Summer mean air temperature • Winter mean air temperature • Summer precipitation rate • Winter precipitation rate Temporal scales All data were downloaded to 2080. Sea Level data were downloaded to 2100. Climate Change type Regional data is also available in either absolute values or anomaly values. Absolute values project the temperatures and precipitation rates that we are likely to see, whilst the anomaly values show the percentage change from a chosen baseline. Absolute values were used for the majority of the analysis, as the observed trends from 1960 could be combined with the projections with ease, and it was felt that the graphs produced from absolute values would be easier to understand for the audience of the adaptation strategy. However, anomaly values were used also used to calculate the projected change in temperature and precipitation rate in 2100 from 1961. Observational data To assist with analysing the projections in a context of experienced climate trends for the region, observed data for mean air temperature and precipitation rate from 1961 – 2022 were downloaded and incorporated into the projection data. Again, due to the timescales involved in downloading and processing the data, observation data was only included for the annual mean air temperature and precipitation rate analysis for the Argyll River basin region and the individual settlements. It was not looked at seasonally, though that data is available should it be of interest at a later date. Outputs Outputs are in the form of graphs, maps, and tables from the automatically generated reports for the local authorities from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer. Graphs showing the observed climate trends and projections against time have been produced for the regional data and individual settlements. These have been produced either by data manipulation in Excel, or automatically generated by the UKCP User Interface. Page 70
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Processing the data Data downloaded from the UKCP were processed in excel, with graphs of the climate trends and projections produced for analysis. Observational data was incorporated into these graphs. The Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer was accessed for the local authority specific data, which can be viewed and explored using a web-based dashboard and automatically generated reports downloaded with a summary of the information contained within. For areas not considered coastal by either of the data sources above, the Dynamic Coasts website was used to suggest likely sea level rise by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Page 71
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Key Findings The analysis of current climate trends (1960 – 2022) in Argyll and Bute show that the average annual air temperature has increased by 1.2°C during that time. Average summer temperature has increased by 1.5°C with average winter temperature increasing by 1.2°C. Average annual rainfall has increased by 400mm per year in that time, equating to an average extra 1.4mm per day across the year. Summer rainfall has increased by 50mm per year since 1960, with winter rainfall increasing by 300mm per year. Mean sea level around Argyll and Bute has risen by approximately 6.8mm per year since 1990. The key findings of the climate projection is that the Argyll and Bute region will experience an increase in average annual temperature of around 3.5°C and an increase in precipitation rate of around 10% from the 1981-2000 baseline by 2080. Sea level is expected to rise by between 0.4 and 0.7m by the 2080s. There is a small amount of variation in these figures across the region, with individual settlements providing a picture of those variations. Seasonal variation is also important to consider, as whilst the annual precipitation rate shows only small amounts of change, the seasonal analysis shows a significant decrease in summer precipitation with an increase in winter precipitation which almost balance each other out over the course of a year. This seasonal variability is likely to have more of an impact on the region as the annual changes given its geography, economics and infrastructure. Page 72
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Regional Findings Current observations Monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1990 - 2022 were first analysed for Argyll and Bute, to provide a context for the projected changes, particularly seasonally. This has been plotted on the graph below. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the data confirms that temperatures are warmer, and precipitation is less in the summer months than in the winter months. However, it also indicates that, generally, the driest months in Argyll and Bute are actually in Spring – April and May. The largest change in precipitation is seen between September and October, where on average, there is an increase of around 30mm. Average annual temperature and precipitation observations from 1960 – 2022 were also plotted, along with seasonal (summer and winter) observations. Observed annual data shows that the region has already experienced an average temperature increase of around 1.2°C and an increase in precipitation rate of just over 1mm/day since 1960. Observed seasonal data shows that the region has already experienced an average temperature increase in summer of around 1.3°C and an average temperature increase in winter of around 1.4°C. The region has also already experienced an average increase in winter precipitation rate of over 3mm/day and a slight increase in summer precipitation rate of just under 1mm/day since 1960. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Average Monthly Temperature (°C) Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/month) Monthly average observed data for Argyll and Bute river basin region Page 73
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6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed annual mean air temperature for the Argyll River Basin (°C) 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed total rainfall per year for the Argyll River Basin (mm) 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed annual precipitation rate for the Argyll River Basin (mm/day) Page 74
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Another important note in the observed data, is the variability between years, as discussed in the key findings summary above. Whilst both the observed data, and projections give an indication of overall trends, the variability of both temperature and rainfall experienced in any given year is very hard to predict and could have a bigger impact on the Argyll region than the annual trends. Projected air temperature and precipitation rates Anomaly values (change from baseline): The below graphs were generated using anomaly values directly in the UKCP User Interface. This data shows change from a baseline of 1961 for the Argyll river basin up to the end of the century. The bold line shows the central project of the 50th percentile i.e. as likely as not in the current scenario. The shaded areas show the other relative percentiles of probability – from 5, 10, 25th, 75th, 90th and 95th. The graphs generated by the UKCP User Interface automatically uses an end date of 2099, where as the data for absolute values (see section below) is only projected to 2080. Therefore, in order to avoid confusion and compare the data, the interpretation of graphs for the anomaly values below have looked at the 2080 date point. The first graph shows the annual average air temperature anomaly – the projected annual temperature increase, indicating a probable increase of around 2.8°C by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed summer mean air temperature for the Argyll River Basin (°C) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed winter mean air temperature for the Argyll River Basin (°C) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed summer precipitation rate for the Argyll River Basin (mm/day) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed winter precipitation rate for the Argyll River Basin (mm/day) Page 75
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The second graph shows the annual average precipitation rate anomaly – the projected annual change in precipitation, indicating a probable increase of around 9%C by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. Page 76
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As discussed above, precipitation is usefully looked at across the seasons. Therefore, the following two graphs show the summer and winter average precipitation rate anomaly. These graphs indicate a likely summer decrease in precipitation rate of around 20% by 2080 and a winter increase in precipitation rate of 20% by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. These appear to cancel each other out, so it can be anticipated that the projected annual increase in precipitation rate will mean that spring and autumn will become wetter. Considering the current observed monthly precipitation shown in the graph in the Observed Data section, an increase in autumn precipitation could have significant impacts given the already high precipitation amounts from October onwards, and this would compound the impacts of the increase in winter precipitation as the ground will already be saturated. An increase in spring precipitation, may on the face of it have less of an impact, however, coming on the back of an increase in winter rainfall (not snowfall, as the temperature increase will mean precipitation falls mainly as rain) could have just as severe an impact on again, already saturated ground. Absolute values: Absolute values for both observation and projection data for average annual air temperature and annual precipitation rates were plotted on the same graphs to compare the current trends in climate since 1960 and what the climate models predicted would happen, along with the future projections. Since 1960, the Argyll and Bute region has experienced an increase in average annual temperatures of around 1.4°C, but with high levels of variability from year to year, as seen in the graph below and above. Projections indicate that this increase will continue steadily on reaching close to 11°C by 2080. The graphs also show that the projections fall slightly below the observed temperature from 1960 – 2022, and whilst some of this is down to the way the data is manipulated to get the averages from the 12 different climate models, there is the suggestion that the projections have previously underplayed the amount of warming currently being experienced. Page 77
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The graph above shows that the Argyll region has experienced a slight increase in annual precipitation rate since 1960, but perhaps more importantly that there is a significant degree of variability between years. The projections indicate that this increase will continue, though perhaps slowly, reaching a little over 7mm/day by 2080. As with the observed data, and anomaly data, precipitation rate projections were looked at seasonally (summer and winter). The below graphs show the observed and projected temperature and precipitation rates in summer (June, July and August) and winter (December, January and February) from 1960 – 2080. Seasonal temperature also shows an observed increasing trend across both summer and winter, which carries on into the projections to 2080. Observed data shows a higher variability in the winter temperatures which the projections do not, which is worth bearing in mind when considering the impacts of the climate trends. 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin average annual air temperatures from (°C) Temperature Observations Temperature Projections 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin annual average precipitation rate (mm/day) Observed Precipitation Rate Projected Precipitation Rate Page 78
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Seasonal precipitation rates, however, show a different pattern between summer and winter, with a steady decrease in summer and an increase in winter. The observational data again shows a high degree of variability from year to year in precipitation rates, making patterns of overall increases and decreases difficult to ascertain. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin average summer air temperatures (°C) Summer temperature observations Summer temperature projections 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin average winter air temperatures (°C) Winter temperature observations Winter temperature projections 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin summer average precipitation rate (mm/day) Observed summer precipitation rate Projected summer precipitation rate Page 79
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Sea Level Sea Level data is not available at the regional scale, it is projected at either specific tidal gauge locations or 2km coastal locations. Sea level change will be covered in the local authority section and where relevant in the settlement analysis below. However, looking at the RCP8.5 sea level predictions for around the region, there is the projection that sea levels will arise around the region on average between 0.30 and 0.71m by 2080, taking into account isostatic rebound (gradual rise in land level formerly covered by ice sheets during the Ice Ages), and potentially up to 1m by 2100 in some locations (not factoring in isostatic rebound). The available data only looks at sea level rise in isolation and does not include storm surges or storminess. It is not currently possible to model and project changes in storm surges or storminess with any accuracy, though they are predicted to increase due to the changes in weather patterns expected in a changing climate. The data presented here could be interpreted as a baseline which storm surges would be added to. The Climate Central website Coastal Risk Screening Tool referred to in the introduction provides maps of land below 1m above the current high tide line, which can be used to infer the location of the mean high water line in 2100, though there are caveat around topography of surrounding land and existing and future sea defences that will influence the exact level of sea rise in specific locations. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic Ocean that bring warm water from the tropics up to the west coastline of northern Europe, often called The Gulf Stream. It is a key reason why Scotland doesn’t see the same temperatures as the Baltic Nations and Russia in winter. The AMOC varies from year to year and though there hasn’t been enough monitoring to pick up long terms trends, climate models suggest that the AMOC will weaken as greenhouse gases increase, which could have a significant impact on the UK Climate as less warmer water is brought northwards. There is a large amount of uncertainty of both the affect of a weaker AMOC and at present it hasn’t been included in the UK Climate Projections due to a lack of robust data surrounding it. However, this is being worked on by the Met Office and future Projections will hopefully include it. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin winter average precipitation rate (mm/day) Observed winter precipitation rate Projected winter precipitation rate Page 80
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Local Authority level Findings As mentioned in the methodology section, the High global Warming Levels used in the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer roughly coincide with the RCP8.5 to 2080. The report for Argyll and Bute suggests an annual average temperature increase of 2.4 - 3.2°C over the 1981-2000 baseline under the high emissions GWL, with the summer average at 4.7°C higher and the winter average 2.5°C higher. These projections also project a summer maximum temperature of 4.7°C above and a winter minimum temperature of 5.3°C above the 1981-2000 baseline. Summer precipitation rate is projected to be around 15% lower with winter precipitation predicted to be around 10% above the 1981-2000 baseline. In addition to temperature and precipitation rate, the Met Officer Local Authority Climate Explorer reports include other climate indicators. The report for Argyll and Bute predicts the following median annual values, for the 4°C GWL: Indicator Baseline (1981-2000) 4°C GWL Median Summer Days1 – daily maximum temperature >25°C 1 10 Hot Summer Days – daily maximum temperature >30°C 0 1 Extreme Summer Days – daily maximum temperature >35°C 0 0 Tropical Nights – daily minimum temperature >20°C 0 0 Frost Days – daily minimum temperature <0°C 52 7 Icing Days – daily maximum temperature <0°C 2 0 Growing Degree2 Days – daily mean temperature >5.5°C 1,249 2,005 Heating Degree Days – daily mean temperature <15.5°C 2,772 1,916 Cooling Degree Days – daily mean temperature <22°C 3 20 For areas with a coastline, the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer also provides projections on sea level. The report for Argyll and Bute projects a sea level rise of between 0.30 and 0.72m above the 1990 mean high tide line by the 2080s. 1 Summer days above the stated temperature thresholds can occur at any time of year. 2 Degree days are not a number of days, but the number of degrees the daily average temperature exceeds the threshold each day, added up over a year. Page 81
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Settlement Findings Argyll and Bute is a large area, with a diverse geography, topography and coastline. Sixteen key settlements were identified by the CPP to allow the analysis of climate trends across the region. There is a mixture of large and small urban centres, coastal, inland and island settlements, landscape types and topographies: Page 82
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Arrochar Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Arrochar is predicted to increase over the coming decades, reaching to approximately 10.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.8°C increase in annual average temperature for the Arrochar area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Arrochar is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, which compares to the UKCP anomaly projections suggesting a 5% increase in precipitation rate for the Arrochar area. However, as noted in the regional section above, the variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place. The observational data below shows a high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. Sea Level Rise 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average air temperature at 1.5m at Arrochar (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Arrochar (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 83
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Despite being at the head of a sea loch, Arrochar is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.9m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 84
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Campbeltown Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Campbeltown is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080 This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.8°C increase in annual average temperature for the Campbeltown area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Campbeltown is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 10% increase in precipitation rate for the southern Kintyre peninsula, the variation between that and the absolute values for Campbeltown could be due to the eastern location of the town. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average air temperature at 1.5m at Campbeltown (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Campbeltown (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 85
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Campbeltown is projected to rise by between 0.58m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Campbeltown (m) RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 86
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Dunoon Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Dunoon is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Dunoon area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Dunoon is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Dunoon area. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years, however, will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average air temperature at 1.5m at Dunoon (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average precipitation rate at Dunoon (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 87
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Dunoon is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 Sea Level Projections at Dunoon (m) RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 88
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Garelochhead Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Garelochhead is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Garelochhead is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Garelochhead area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Garelochhead (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Gareloch (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 89
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Sea Level Rise Garelochhead is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.9m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 90
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Helensburgh Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Helensburgh is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Helensburgh area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Helensburgh is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, which compares to the UKCP anomaly projections suggesting a 5% increase in precipitation rate for the Helensburgh area. The projections do suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Helensburgh (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Helensburgh (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 91
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Sea Level Rise Helensburgh is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.9m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 92
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Inveraray Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Inverary is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 10.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.7°C increase in annual average temperature for the Inverary area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Inverary is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest an 8% increase in precipitation rate for the Inverary area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Inverary (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Inverary (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 93
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Sea Level Rise Inverary is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.91m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 94
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Lochgilphead Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Lochgilphead is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Lochgilphead area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Lochgilphead is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though with a very slight increase. The UKCP anomaly data, however, suggests that there could be an increase of up to 10%. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Lochgilphead (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Lochgilphead (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 95
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Lochgilphead is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 Sea Level Projections at Lochgilhead RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 96
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Luing Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Luing is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.5°C increase in annual average temperature for the Luing area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Luing is predicated to increased by over 1mm/day compared to the baseline and the projections also suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections that show an anticipated increase in precipitation rate of 11%. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Avergae annual air temperature at 1.5m at Luing (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Luing (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 97
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Luing is projected to rise by between 0.58m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Luing RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 98
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Oban Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Oban is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.6°C increase in annual average temperature for the Oban area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Oban is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Oban area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average mean air temperature at 1.5m at Oban (°C) Observed mean temperature Projected mean temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average precipitation rate at Oban (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 99
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Oban is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.92m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Oban (m) RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 100
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Port Ellen Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Port Ellen is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.8°C increase in annual average temperature for Islay. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Porth Ellen is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, and the projections suggest a slightly higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 10% increase in precipitation rate for Islay, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Port Ellen (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Port Ellen (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 101
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at the Port Ellen tidal gauge site is projected to rise by between 0.59m and 0.94m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections Port Ellen tidal guage site RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 102
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Rothesay Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Rothesay is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Isle of Bute. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Rothesay is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 8% increase in precipitation rate for the Isle of Bute, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Rothsay (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Rothsay (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 103
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Rothesay is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Rise projections at Rothesay RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 104
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Tarbert, Kintyre Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tarbert is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.9°C increase in annual average temperature for the north Kintyre peninsula. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tarbert is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the northern Kintyre peninsula. As with Campbeltown, some of this discrepancy could be due to Tarbert’s location on the eastern side of the 25km grid square used for the anomaly projections. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tarbert (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 6 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tarbert (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 105
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tarbert is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Rise projections at Tarbert RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 106
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Tayvallich Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tayvallich is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Tayvallich area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tayvallich is predicated to increase by around 1mm/day compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections that show an anticipated increase in precipitation rate of 10%. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tayvallich (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tayvallich (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 107
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tayvallich is projected to rise by between 0.60m and 0.99m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is well above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea level Projections at Tayvallich RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 108
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Tighnabruaich Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tighnabruich is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.9°C increase in annual average temperature for the Tighnabruich area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tighnabruich is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Tighnabruich area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tighnabruich (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tighnabruich (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 109
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tighnabruich is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Tighnabruich RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 110
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Tiree Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tiree is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 12.5°C by 2080. The UKCP anomaly projections do not have a 25km grid square covering Tiree, so this data is not available for comparison. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tiree is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections do not have a 25km grid square covering Tiree. so this data is not available for comparison. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tiree (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tiree (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 111
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tiree is projected to rise by between 0.60m and 0.99m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is well above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 Sea level Projections at Tiree RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 112
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Tobermory Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tobermory is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.5°C increase in annual average temperature for the Tobermory area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tobermory is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly data suggests an increase in precipitation rate of 11% by 2080. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tobermory (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tobermory (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 113
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tobermory tidal gauge site is projected to rise by between 0.6m and 0.95m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Tobermory tidal guage site RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 114