Budget Outlook Appendix 1
Argyll and Bute Council · 25 September 2024
Back to Argyll and Bute HSCP Integration Joint Board (IJB) — 25 September 2024 and its agenda
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Appendix 1a - Social Care Cost and Demand Pressures Service Cost/Demand Pressure 2025- 26 £000 2026- 27 £000 2027- 28 £000 All Social Work Estimated Pay inflation reflecting a mid-range of 3%. Adjusted for the impact of the reduction in the employer's pension contribution rate changes. 1,049 2,301 3,590 All Social Work Estimated Pay increments 172 344 516 All Social Work Non-pay inflation, best and worst case based on unavoidable/inescapable inflation and worst case. 905 1,864 2,883 All Social Work Non-pay inflation impact of payroll inflation on NHS posts which are recharged to Social Work. 90 182 277 Adult Care Older People Demand Growth: due to demographic change, 3% growth in homecare and care home placements over 3 years. 400 800 1,200 Adult Care Younger Adults Demand Growth - Physical Disability. The mid-range reflects 2% growth. 59 119 180 Adult Care Mental Health Demand Growth - There has been a continuing increase in demand for residential placements and supported living for mental health services. The mid-range reflects 2% growth. 61 123 187 Children and Families Looked After Children Demand Growth - there is a continuing demand for placements of children who are cared for by the HSCP. The mid case reflects that additional demand in 24/25 be funded from existing resource with £250k per annum thereafter. 0 250 500 Children and Families Looked After Children Budget Adjustment - to reflect significant increase in demand for placements in external residential care facilities. 970 970 970 Adult Care Mental Health Budget Adjustment - The Mental Health Supported Living and Residential budgets are carrying a recurring unbudgeted commitment and increasing demand. Care. 115 230 345 All Social Work Allowance for unknown cost and demand pressures which could arise. 700 1,000 1,500 TOTAL UNFUNDED COST AND DEMAND PRESSURES 4,521 8,183 12,148 Mid Range
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Appendix 1b - NHS Cost and Demand Pressures Cost/Demand Pressure 2025- 26 £000 2026- 27 £000 2027- 28 £000 Pay increments 100 200 300 Inflation on Resource Transfer 289 583 883 Estates & Fleet cost increases 500 500 500 Prescribing - 8% per SG planning assumption 2,052 4,262 6,643 Estates - Mid Argyll PFI 175 360 554 Estates - energy & utilities 282 588 920 Staffing Act Implementation 300 300 300 Oncology medicines demand for new drugs 200 400 600 Depreciation & IFRS16 164 329 495 MS365 Licenses - contract increases 50 100 150 NSD Car-T Regional Centre 302 553 804 NSD topslice - additional services & current pressures 200 400 600 Misc / other cost pressures 80 167 253 Allowance for unknown cost and demand pressures 1,000 2,000 3,000 5,694 10,742 16,002 It is assumed that other NHS cost pressures, such as pay, will be fully funded Mid Range