Appendix 1 Cost and Demand Pressures
Argyll and Bute Council · 27 November 2024
Back to Argyll and Bute HSCP Integration Joint Board (IJB) — 27 November 2024 and its agenda
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# Appendix 1a - Social Care Cost and Demand Pressures Service Cost/Demand Pressure 2025-26 £000 2026-27 £000 2027-28 £000 All Social Work Estimated Pay inflation reflecting a mid-range of 2%. Adjusted for the impact of the reduction in the employer's pension contribution rate changes. 798 1,625 2,468 All Social Work Estimated Pay increments 172 344 516 All Social Work Non-pay inflation, best and worst case based on unavoidable/inescapable inflation and worst case. 875 1,830 2,844 Adult Care Older People Demand Growth: due to demographic change, 3% growth in homecare and care home placements over 3 years. 1,250 1,950 2,950 Adult Care Younger Adults Demand Growth - Physical Disability. Any growth to be managed within existing budget 0 121 305 Adult Care Mental Health Demand Growth - to be managed within existing budget in 2024/25 0 131 330 Children and Families Looked After Children Demand Growth - there is a continuing demand for placements of children who are cared for by the HSCP. The mid case reflects that additional demand in 24/25 be funded from existing resource with £250k per annum thereafter. 0 107 300 Children and Families Looked After Children Budget Adjustment - to reflect significant increase in demand for placements in external residential care facilities. Assumed this will continue but not increase further. 750 750 750 Adult Care Mental Health Budget Adjustment - The Mental Health Supported Living and Residential budgets are carrying a recurring unbudgeted commitment and increasing demand. Care. 100 265 345 All Social Work Allowance for unknown cost and demand pressures which could arise. 100 300 400 TOTAL UNFUNDED COST AND DEMAND PRESSURES 4,045 7,423 11,208 Mid Range
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Appendix 1b - NHS Cost and Demand Pressures Cost/Demand Pressure 2025-26 £000 2026-27 £000 2027-28 £000 Pay increments 100 200 300 Inflation on Resource Transfer 289 583 883 Estates & Fleet cost increases 500 500 500 Prescribing - 10% per SG planning assumption with no additional funding confirmed. 2,518 4,765 7,186 Estates - Mid Argyll PFI 175 360 554 Estates - energy & utilities 81 349 556 Staffing Act Implementation 300 300 300 Oncology medicines demand for new drugs 200 400 600 Depreciation & IFRS16 170 341 514 MS365 Licenses - contract increases 50 100 150 NSD Car-T Regional Centre 302 553 804 NSD topslice - additional services & current pressures 200 400 600 SLA Inflation - 3% increae assumption per SG - no funding confirmed 2,873 5,823 8,861 West Scotland Heart & Lung Services - revised model 500 500 500 Mental Health Out of Area Placements 500 500 500 Labs Managed Service Contract 110 110 110 Patient Transport increase - renal 100 100 100 Allowance for unknown cost and demand pressures 400 2,000 3,000 9,368 17,884 26,018 It is assumed that other NHS cost pressures, such as pay and NI increase, will be fully funded Mid Range