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West Dunbartonshire Council · 21 June 2023
Back to West Dunbartonshire Council — 21 June 2023 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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Agenda Special Meeting of West Dunbartonshire Council Date: Wednesday, 21 June 2023 Time: 18:00 Format: Hybrid Meeting Contact: Carol-Ann Burns, Senior Democratic Services Officer Email: carol-ann.burns@west-dunbarton.gov.uk Dear Member Please attend a special meeting of West Dunbartonshire Council as detailed above. Members will have the option to attend the meeting remotely or in person at the Civic Space, 16 Church Street, Dumbarton. The business is shown on the attached agenda. Yours faithfully PETER HESSETT Chief Executive Page 1
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Distribution:- Councillor James Bollan Councillor Michelle McGinty Councillor Karen Conaghan Councillor June McKay Councillor Ian Dickson Councillor John Millar Councillor Diane Docherty Councillor Lawrence O’Neill Councillor Craig Edward Councillor Lauren Oxley Councillor Gurpreet Johal Councillor Chris Pollock Councillor Daniel Lennie Councillor Martin Rooney Councillor Douglas McAllister Councillor Gordon Scanlan Councillor David McBride Councillor Hazel Sorrell Councillor Jonathan McColl Councillor Clare Steel Councillor James McElhill Councillor Sophie Traynor Chief Executive Chief Officers Date of issue: 15 June 2023 Audio Streaming Audio recordings of the meeting (including the attendance or contribution of any party participating or making a contribution) will be published on the Council’s website and the Council’s host’s webcast/audio stream platform. You should be aware that the Council is a Data Controller under the General Data Protection Regulation. Data collected during this audio stream will be retained in accordance with the Council’s Privacy Notice* and Retention Schedules including, but not limited to, for the purpose of keeping historical records and making those records available via the Council’s internet site. Page 2
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SPECIAL MEETING OF WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE COUNCIL WEDNESDAY, 21 JUNE 2023 AGENDA 1 STATEMENT BY CHAIR 2 APOLOGIES 3 DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST Members are invited to declare if they have an interest in the item of business on this agenda and the reasons for such declarations. 4 RECORDING OF VOTES The Council is asked to agree that all votes taken during the meeting will be done by roll call vote to ensure an accurate record. 5 EXXON PROJECT FULL BUSINESS CASE 5 – 202 Submit report by the Chief Officer – Regulatory and Regeneration seeking approval to submit the Full Business Case for the Exxon site project to the Glasgow City Region Cabinet for their approval on 8 August 2023. Page 3
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WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE COUNCIL Report by Chief Officers (Roads & Neighbourhood) & (Regeneration and Regulatory) Council: 28 June 2023 Subject: Exxon Site Project Full Business Case 1. Purpose 1.1 To seek approval to submit the Full Business Case for the Exxon site project to the Glasgow City Region Cabinet for their approval on 8 August 2023. 2. Recommendations 2.1 It is recommended that Council: i) approve the Full Business Case for the updated project cost of £44.325m and note the project’s enhanced long term economic outcomes for the City Region including Gross Value Added of 520.8, and 980 jobs. ii) approve a Project Change Control Request be submitted to Glasgow City Region for consideration; iii) agrees that the Full Business Case is presented to the Glasgow City Region Chief Executive Group and subsequently to Cabinet for approval on 8 August 2023; iv) commences discussions with Glasgow City Region on the availability of additional funding to meet the increased costs and scope of the project; v) subject to a positive outcome of iv), seek additional funding from Glasgow City Region to meet, or partially meet the shortfall in funding of £14.118m; vi) should iv) and v) not be successful, approve the increased financial commitment from £10.059m to £20,334, by updating the Council’s capital plan, subject to approval of the Full Business Case by the Glasgow City Region Cabinet; and vii) subject to the approval of the Full Business Case by the Glasgow City Region within parameters agreed in 2.1(i) – (iv) above, to delegate authority to the Chief Officer: Regulatory and Regeneration to enter into the necessary construction and consultancy contracts for the delivery of the works as specified in the Full Business Case. ITEM 5 Page 5
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3. Background 3.1 The Full Business Case (Appendix One) has been developed by the Council working with consultants Stantec, with scheme costs provided by Balfour Beatty. The Full Business Case provides certainty of costs, subject to a number of minor design elements that will go on to be fully market tested. Approval of the Full Business Case by first Council, then the Glasgow City Region Chief Executives Group and City Region Cabinet will unlock the already agreed level of City Deal funding, allowing the project to be implemented within the agreed timescale. 3.2 The original Outline Business Case for the City Deal project was approved by Council on 22 February 2017 with a total project budget of £27.897m, 86% of which would be funded by City Deal (£23.991m) and 14% by Council (£3.906m). This was subsequently approved by the City Region Cabinet on 11 April 2017. 3.3 The refreshed Outline Business Case approved in November 2018 resulted in an increased project budget of £34.050m requiring an additional £6.153m of funding. Council agreed to contribute the £6.153m should City Region monies not be forthcoming. At the time there was no provision for City Region to approve this amount, and to date there has been no additional funding agreed. Table 1 outlines the total project costs of the previously approved Outline Business case and the project costs detailed in the proposed Full Business Case. Table 1: Total Project Capital Costs Business Case Stage Total Project Cost (£’000) February 2017 OBC 27,897 November 2018 OBC Refreshed 34,050 August 2023 FBC 44,325 3.4 Construction costs have significantly increased during the past few years due to the pandemic and its financial aftermath, the war on Ukraine and its impact on worldwide supply chains, and more recently the capacity of contractors to take on additional work resulting in material increases in tender prices. In working with Balfour Beatty through the Scape framework the Council has mitigated some of the construction sector capacity problems, but is not immune to the impact of other factors. 3.5 During earlier stages of detailed design development and in anticipation of increasing costs, the Exxon Project Board considered a number of options between October 2022 and January 2023, which aimed to rationalise design and identify cost avoidance without reducing the functionality of the project proposal. The value engineering exercise identified a £6.350m saving. Page 6
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4. Main Issues 4.1 ExxonMobil are progressing their remediation works on site and remain on track to complete remediation to allow the Council to take possession of the site by the end of 2023 to facilitate the commencement of infrastructure works. The City Deal and Council funded infrastructure programme involves delivering a spine road through the site to provide access and a potential relief route for the A82. It also includes upgrades to the western and eastern junctions on the A82 and cycle paths including a rerouting of the National Cycle Network Path 7. There are wider ambitions and planning obligations to deliver the approved masterplan including improvements to Dunglass Castle, a green network, and community access to the riverfront. These latter elements are not currently funded. 4.2 Planning Permission in Principle (PPiP) reference DC20/088 was granted on 13th January 2021 for the “Development of up to 44,450m2 of commercial/ industrial floorspace, link road with upgraded junctions on the A82 and A814, a railway underbridge and an overbridge, landscaping, green network and public realm improvements, flood defences, drainage, transport and utilities infrastructure including the formation of platforms for development across the site on land at the former Dunglass Oil Terminal located on Dumbarton Road in Bowling. 4.3 The permission contained 31 conditions of which 12 conditions required to be discharged prior to the submission of the first application for the approval of matters specified in conditions. To date 11 of the 12 conditions have been discharged with only 1 conditions remaining to be discharged in relation to Construction Traffic Management Plan (CTMP). It is anticipated that this remaining condition will be discharged shortly. The Approval of Matters Specified in Conditions application is due to be submitted week beginning 12th June 2023. The first AMSC application will contain information relating to development platforms, the position of all, roads, access arrangements, footpaths, green corridors open space, boundary treatments and drainage infrastructure, together with the Design & Construction Management Plan and Operational Phase Management Plan 4.4 An Elected Member Briefing at Pre-application stage took place on 10th May 2023. The comments received from Elected Members during the Briefing will be addressed in the forthcoming application. The Approval of Matters Specified in Conditions planning application will be considered at a future Planning Committee. 4.5 Balfour Beatty was appointed as the main contractor via the Scape framework agreement. Working with their consultancy team, they have been engaged in the pre-construction stage of development, which involves developing the final design and establishing costs for each element of the programme from their sub-contractors. Following approval of the Final Business Case by both Council and Glasgow City Region Cabinet in August, Balfour Beatty will be appointed for the construction phase. 4.6 Separately, the Council have agreed with Network Rail to deliver the upgrade of the Western Underpass, which is necessary for the spine road to be Page 7
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delivered on time. Pre-construction work for the western underpass is taking place and confirmation of Network Rail’s contractor’s start date is awaited. These works are costed within the wider project budget for the Exxon project, but require to be constructed under the jurisdiction of Network Rail and their contractor rather than Balfour Beatty. 4.7 The proposed Option 5 in the Full Business Case in Appendix One demonstrates that the programme of infrastructure set out in 4.1 will exceed the economic growth measured by Gross Value Added (GVA) which was anticipated at the outset of the region-wide City Deal programme. The new spine road will improve active and vehicular transport infrastructure for local residents, businesses and new developers and employers. When the site is developed, an estimated 41,672 sq m of gross floorspace for new employment uses will be created, supporting 980 jobs. 4.8 The current proposed project includes the transport infrastructure (including the spine road, western junction development, improvement of Dunglass roundabout, Western Underpass construction, Eastern Overbridge deck replacement) and platform development with associated landscaping. Creation of development platforms improves the developability of sites and will also accelerate the rate of land sales. It should be noted that development platforms involve levelling of ground over large areas of land. They are not intended to provide any constraints to development, and their scale will give multiple developers flexibility to determine the scale and format of development. 4.9 The City Deal Programme Management Office Business Case Appraisal Criteria states that ‘Business Cases will be appraised in relation to the extent to which all requirements have been fully achieved. This Full Business Case has been structured to specifically address the appraisal criteria as set out in the Assurance Framework and the additional programme economic case questions taken from the latest Programme Business Case. The Full Business Case and Change Control Request will be considered by Glasgow City Region Cabinet on 8 August 2023. 4.10 In relation to land acquisitions there are a number of Temporary Access Agreements required to be completed and these have been agreed in principal pending confirmation of dates and scope of works. In addition two land purchases have been progressed with remaining land purchases agreed in principal pending legal completion. 4.11 A comprehensive communications plan will ensure West Dunbartonshire residents, businesses and elected members are well informed at all of the various stages of this project. This will include bespoke communications to those residents and businesses impacted by ongoing work; working with key partners including Transport Scotland to ensure key messaging is distributed widely to maximise reach and buy-in from road users; local and national press coverage; information sharing with Community Councils and other organisations; detailed website updates; and social media posting on a regular basis. 4.12 Elected Members will receive updates around key milestones throughout the project to ensure awareness. In addition, the communications team will work Page 8
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closely with the contractor on wording of signage, letter drops and any potential footage which can be used online to increase knowledge and engagement with the site. The Council’s Communications team is part of the wider Glasgow City Region City Deal Communications Group and all updates will be shared with them, and will align with wider messaging. 5 People Implications 5.1 There are a number of senior officers involved in the Glasgow City Region wider programme as identified at City Region Update paper at Council on 26 August 2021. 6. Financial Implications 6.1 The approved budget to date for the City Deal Exxon project is £34.050m, with £23.991m from City Region and £10.058m (if Glasgow City Region weren’t meeting the costs of £6.153m identified in the refreshed Outline Business Case in November 2023) from West Dunbartonshire Council. Total expenditure to date is £3.524m, all of which has been funded by the City Region as part of original agreed Outline Business Case approved costs. Based on the current programme, the revised Business Case has a projected total project cost of £44.325m. The additional funding being requested is £14.118m. Should the Council be unsuccessful in securing the funding from Glasgow City Region, this would be added to the Council’s capital plan and the revenue costs to borrow the additional amount would be £11.230m 6.2 Outlined in Table 2 is a breakdown of the capital cost in the: • Best case scenario - City Deal agrees to fund 86% of the revised total project cost • Worst case scenario - City Deal reject any application for further funding above and beyond the £23.991m already agreed. Table 2 - Capital Cost Breakdown FBC Total Project Cost (£,000) City Region Share (£,000) Council Share (£,000) City Region Share Council Share Best Case 44,325 38,120 6,205 86% 14% Worst Case 44,325 23,991 20,334 54% 46% 6.3 Future disposals are not accounted for in the cost breakdown above, however a land valuation previously reported to Council has been on the basis of the site having the benefit of development platforms for commercial/industrial uses. 6.4 It is likely that any Council contribution would predominantly be funded by prudential borrowing which will have a revenue cost implication due to the associated cost of borrowing. Based on a 20 year loan, at current PWLB borrowing rates, the cost to borrow the £10.059m already approved as the Page 9
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Council contribution (as per paragraph 3.3) would be £5.556m. If the City Deal agreed to fund 86% of the revised total project cost (Best Case Scenario) the cost of borrowing would reduce to £3.427m. In the Worst Case Scenario it would increase to £11.230m. Note that these are estimates and likely to decrease as: • the borrowing would not all need to be taken out at once • bank interest rates are projected to decrease • some of the capital costs could be funded by future land sales at the Exxon site or the sale of other non-operational Council assets 7. Risk Analysis 7.1 There are a number of project risks associated with the development at the Exxon project site and these are contained within the project risk register and updated by the Project Board on a regular basis. The Project Board is made up of senior officers from all key services. 7.2 Mitigation measures on early value engineering of design options were taken before costs were refined, therefore reducing some risks related to cost increases, as previously identified. 7.3 There is a risk that Glasgow City Region will claw back funding if the project doesn’t proceed, and the capital expenditure would have to be accounted for as in-year revenue expenditure. 7.4 Should development platforms not proceed there is a risk that it will have a detrimental effect on the marketability of the site and anticipated capital receipts will not be realised. 7.5 There is a risk that sale of land required to build the infrastructure to access the site cannot be agreed with 3rd party landowners. Mitigation actions have been put in place by previous Council decisions. 7.6 There is a third-party risk with ExxonMobil’s completion of the remediation of the site to enable handover to the Council for commencement of the contract. They have however reported that they are on track to complete in time. 7.7 The Planning risks are that the Approval of Matters Specified in Conditions application is not approved or the permission contains conditions which result in further increase in costs of the development or restrictions to when the development can be carried out. 7.7 The construction contract won’t be awarded until relevant project risks are mitigated to an acceptable standard. 8. Equalities Impact Assessment 8.1 A completed EIA was undertaken as part of the Outline Business Case, and there have been no material changes since. Page 10
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9. Consultation 9.1 Consultation with all key stakeholders is progressing as we continue to work as part of the Glasgow City Region. 9.2 Legal Services, Finance, Planning and the Corporate Procurement Unit are regularly consulted through their participation in the Exxon project board. 9.3 Wider communication is produced regarding progress of the Glasgow City Region at its website http://www.glasgowcityregion.co.uk/ 10 Strategic Assessment 10.1 At its meeting on 26 October 2022, the Council agreed that one of its main strategic priorities for the Strategic Plan 2022 - 2027 is: • Our economy is strong and flourishing 10.2 The proposals within this report are specifically designed to deliver on this priority. Alan Douglas Chief Officer: Regulation and Regeneration Gail Macfarlane Chief Officer: Roads and Neighbourhood Date: 15/06/23 Person to Contact: Gillian McNamara gillian.mcnamara@west-dunbarton.gov.uk Appendix: Appendix One – Full Business Case Appendix Two - Glossary Background Papers: ExxonMobil Commercial Agreement 24 June 2020. Glasgow City Region City Deal - Exxon Site Outline Business Cases 22 Feb 2017 and 28 Nov 2018 (Refreshed). Clyde Valley City Deal - Update and Strategic Business Case- Council 24 June 2015. Clyde Valley City Deal Update- Council 25 Aug 2015 and 16 Dec 2015. Clyde Valley City Deal- Governance- Council 17 Dec 2014. Glasgow City Region City Deal- Council 13 August 2014. “City Deal Initiative” Clyde Valley Investment Fund- Council 30 April 2014 (Memorandum of Understanding). Clyde Valley Community Planning Partnership – City Deal Page 11
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Initiative – Council 28 August 2013. Equalities Impact Assessment November 2018. Environmental Impact Assessment -DC20/088 – Planning Application – Documents. Wards Affected: All Page 12
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Exxon Site Development Project Full Business Case June 2023 Glasgow City Region City Deal Project Submission from West Dunbartonshire Council Image credit: Guthrie Aerial Photography APPENDIX 1 Page 13
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Contents Business Case Approval Criteria ......................................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction and Executive Summary ..................................................................................... 15 1.1 West Dunbartonshire City Deal Project ....................................................................... 15 1.2 Business Case ............................................................................................................. 16 1.3 Project Contribution to City Deal Economic Case ....................................................... 17 1.4 Strategic Need for the Project ..................................................................................... 17 1.5 Current Position ........................................................................................................... 18 1.6 Options ........................................................................................................................ 18 1.7 Project Scope .............................................................................................................. 18 1.8 Forecast Cost .............................................................................................................. 19 1.9 Proposed Team and Project Management Arrangements .......................................... 19 2 Strategic Case ........................................................................................................................... 20 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 20 2.2 Strategic Need ............................................................................................................. 20 2.3 Existing Arrangements ................................................................................................ 28 2.4 Strategic and Policy Context for the Project ................................................................ 31 2.5 Project Objectives ........................................................................................................ 44 2.6 Project Summary ......................................................................................................... 47 2.7 Dependencies and Constraints ................................................................................... 55 2.8 Stakeholders ................................................................................................................ 57 2.9 Risk .............................................................................................................................. 63 2.10 Risk Allocation and Transfer ....................................................................................... 64 3 Economic Case - Options Appraisal ....................................................................................... 67 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 67 3.2 Summary Outcomes for the Location of a Sizeable Economic Investment Site ......... 67 3.3 Summary Outcomes for the Sectors of Opportunity ................................................... 68 3.4 Summary Outcomes for Site Access ........................................................................... 68 3.5 Long List – Scope, Solution, Delivery & Funding ........................................................ 68 3.6 Site Development Options - Long List ......................................................................... 68 3.7 Long-list Appraisal ....................................................................................................... 69 3.8 Resulting Short List ..................................................................................................... 70 3.9 Benefits ........................................................................................................................ 70 4 Economic Case – Short List Analysis ..................................................................................... 73 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 73 4.2 Cost Benefit Analysis .................................................................................................. 80 4.3 Confirmation of the Results ......................................................................................... 83 4.4 Value for Money – Wider Impacts ............................................................................... 84 5 Commercial Case ...................................................................................................................... 88 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 88 5.2 Delivery Specification .................................................................................................. 88 Page 14
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5.3 Funding Options and Payment Arrangements ............................................................ 89 5.4 Procurement and Community Benefits Strategy ......................................................... 90 5.5 Commercial Risks ........................................................................................................ 91 6 Financial Case ........................................................................................................................... 92 6.1 Overall Project Approval .............................................................................................. 92 6.2 Project Funding ........................................................................................................... 92 6.3 Summary of Project Costs ........................................................................................... 92 6.4 Expenditure on Assets Not Council Owned ................................................................ 95 6.5 Ongoing Revenue Implications ................................................................................... 95 6.6 Main Financial Dependencies ..................................................................................... 96 6.7 Financial Risks ............................................................................................................ 96 7 Management and Sustainability Case ..................................................................................... 97 7.1 Project Roles ............................................................................................................... 97 7.2 Project Governance Structure ..................................................................................... 98 7.3 Risk Management...................................................................................................... 100 7.4 Resilience .................................................................................................................. 102 7.5 Greener Placemaking ................................................................................................ 102 7.6 Active and Lower Carbon Travel ............................................................................... 102 7.7 Other Matters for Consideration ................................................................................ 102 7.8 Project Schedule ....................................................................................................... 104 7.9 Project Monitoring and Evaluation ............................................................................. 104 7.10 Use of Specialist Advisors ......................................................................................... 108 Figures Figure 1-1 Exxon Site Aerial View ......................................................................................................... 15 Figure 2-1 Real GDP, Jan 2020 = 100 .................................................................................................. 25 Figure 2-2 Employment Rate ................................................................................................................ 25 Figure 2-3 Vacancy Rate vs. Employment Rate in West Dunbartonshire ............................................ 27 Figure 2-4 Site Location in Context ....................................................................................................... 28 Figure 2-5 Forecast Change in Population of Working Age .................................................................. 29 Figure 2-6 Forecast Change in GVA ..................................................................................................... 30 Figure 2-7 Forecast Change in Chained Volume Measure (CVM) in West Dunbartonshire ................ 30 Figure 2-8 Average Annual Growth Rate of Sectoral Productivity 2015 - 2035 .................................... 31 Table 2-2 Project fit with National Policies and Strategies .................................................................... 34 Figure 2-9 Extract from Proposed LDP Showing Development Proposals ........................................... 39 Figure 2-10 Site Boundary..................................................................................................................... 48 Figure 2-11 Approved Masterplan ......................................................................................................... 50 Figure 2-12 Relationship between Project’s direct Deliverables and Strategic Need ........................... 54 Figure 7-1 Council Governance Structure ............................................................................................. 99 Tables Table 2-1 SWOT Analysis of West Dunbartonshire Economy .............................................................. 21 Table 2-3 Project fit with Regional Policies and Strategies ................................................................... 38 Table 2-4 Project fit with Local Policies and Strategies ........................................................................ 41 Table 2-5 City Region Deal Objectives and Exxon Site Contribution ................................................... 43 Table 2-6 Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant and Time-bound (SMART) Objectives ............. 46 Table 2-7 Dependencies and Constraints ............................................................................................. 56 Table 2-8 Stakeholder Engagement Summary ..................................................................................... 59 Page 15
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Table 2-9 Risk Transfer ......................................................................................................................... 65 Table 3-1 Option scoring against Project Objectives ............................................................................ 69 Table 3-2 Option Scoring against Critical Success Factors .................................................................. 70 Table 3-3 Qualitative Disbenefits Profile ............................................................................................... 71 Table 4-1 Public Capital Costs Inc OB (£m, 2023 prices) ..................................................................... 73 Table 4-2 Turnover Per Construction Employee (2022) ....................................................................... 74 Table 4-3 Additionality Assumptions (Construction) ............................................................................. 75 Table 4-4 Gross Infrastructure Construction Jobs ................................................................................ 75 Table 4-5 Net Direct Infrastructure Construction Jobs .......................................................................... 75 Table 4-6 GVA per Infrastructure Construction Employee (2022) ........................................................ 76 Table 4-7 Gross Direct Infrastructure Construction Nominal GVA (£m) ............................................... 76 Table 4-8 Net Direct Infrastructure Construction Discounted GVA (£m) .............................................. 76 Table 4-9 Development Plots (GEA m2) ................................................................................................ 77 Table 4-10 Total Private Sector Investment (£m).................................................................................. 77 Table 4-11 Gross Development Construction Jobs .............................................................................. 77 Table 4-12 Net Direct Construction Jobs .............................................................................................. 78 Table 4-13 Gross Development Contraction GVA (£m) ........................................................................ 78 Table 4-14 Net Direct Development Construction GVA (£m) ................................................................ 78 Table 4-15 Development Plots (areas used for employment calculation) ............................................. 79 Table 4-16 Gross Operational Jobs ...................................................................................................... 79 Table 4-17 Net Direct Operational Jobs ................................................................................................ 79 Table 4-18 Gross Direct Operational Nominal GVA (£m) ..................................................................... 79 Table 4-19 Discounted Net Direct Operational GVA (£m) .................................................................... 80 Table 4-20 Total Gross Direct GVA (£m) .............................................................................................. 80 Table 4-21 Total Net Direct Discounted GVA (£m) ............................................................................... 80 Table 4-22 Additional NPV GVA (£m) ................................................................................................... 80 Table 4-23 Cost Per Job (City Region) ................................................................................................. 80 Table 4-24 Value for Money .................................................................................................................. 81 Table 4-25 Switching Value Analysis .................................................................................................... 82 Table 4-26 Sensitivity Testing ............................................................................................................... 82 Table 4-27 Confirmation of the Preferred Option .................................................................................. 83 Table 4-28 Qualitative Benefits ............................................................................................................. 84 Table 4-29 Qualitative Benefits ............................................................................................................. 87 Table 5-1 Procurement Milestones ....................................................................................................... 91 Table 6-1 Project Capital Costs (Option 5) – June 2023 ....................................................................... 93 Table 6-2 Project Finance Overview ..................................................................................................... 93 Table 7-1 Council Project Board ......................................................................................................... 100 Table 7-2 Anticipated Minimum Community Benefits ......................................................................... 108 Appendices Appendix A Socio-Economic Baseline Appendix B Previous Council Project Experience Appendix C Environmental Impact Assessment Appendix D Risk Register Appendix E Benefits Realisation Profile Appendix F Additionality Appendix G Development Plot & Option Timelines Appendix H Equalities Impact Assessment Appendix I Project Programme Page 16
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Business Case Approval Criteria The City Deal Project Management Office’s Business Case Appraisal Criteria states that ‘Business Cases will be appraised in relation to the extent to which all requirements have been fully achieved. This Full Business Case has been structured to specifically address the appraisal criteria as set out in the Assurance Framework and the additional programme economic case questions taken from the latest Programme Business Case. The Table below provides paragraph references showing where each of the business case requirements is addressed in this document. Page 17
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 6 Member Authority: WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE COUNCIL Project Name: EXXON FULL BUSINESS CASE Business Case Section Sub-Section FBC Appraisal Questions FBC Location 0. Executive Summary 0.0.1 Does the Executive summary provide a summary/description of: Project need; Project scope; Project’s costs; the Project’s key milestones; anticipated benefits, including economic benefits (BCR, GVA, construction jobs, operational employment, private sector investment, etc. as required by the Programme Business Case); Project management arrangements? Section 1 FBC Comment: 1. Strategic case 1.1 Strategic Need 1.1.3 Has the FBC revisited the case for change for the Project and does it remain valid? Does the Strategic Case contain any specific additional elements that reflect the content of the FBC? Section 2.2 FBC Comment: 1.1.3 Has the FBC revisited the rationale for the Project set out within the Strategic Case of the Outline Business Case? Section 2.2 FBC Comment: 1.2 Strategic and Policy Context for The Project and Contribution to the City Deal 1.2.2 Does the recommended intervention still satisfy the strategic objectives of the City Deal Programme? Section 2.4 FBC Comment: 1.3 Project Objectives 1.3.2 Have the SMART objectives been revisited in relation to the focus of the FBC? Section 2.6 FBC Comment: 1.4 Existing Arrangements Section 2.3 1.5 Project Summary Section 2.6 1.6 Dependencies and Constraints 1.6.1 Have all relevant Project dependencies included within the OBC been revisited and refreshed? Have any new dependencies been identified since the OBC? How will they be managed? Section 2.7 FBC Comment: Page 18
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 7 Business Case Section Sub-Section FBC Appraisal Questions FBC Location 1.6.2 Have all relevant Project inter-dependencies included within the OBC been revisited and refreshed? Have any new inter-dependencies been identified since the OBC? How will they be managed? Section 2.6 FBC Comment: 1.6.3 Have all relevant Project constraints included within the OBC been revisited and refreshed? Have any new constraints been identified since the OBC? How will they be managed? Section 2.6 FBC Comment: 1.7 Stakeholders 1.7.1 Has information regarding the main stakeholder groups and any potential areas of conflict been reviewed and updated? Have any new stakeholders or potential areas of conflict been identified? Section 2.8 FBC Comment: 1.8 Risk 1.8.2 Have the risk management arrangements and plans been finalised? Section 2.9 Appendix D FBC Comment: 1.8.2 Has the Project risk register been reviewed and updated since the OBC? Appendix D FBC Comment: 1.8.6 Have environmental and climate risks identified and mitigated within the risk register been refreshed and updated within the FBC? Appendix D FBC Comment: 1.8.7 Have the equalities risks identified and their mitigations within the risk register been refreshed and updated within the FBC? Appendix H FBC Comment: 2. Economic Case 2.1 List of options 2.1.0 Has the economic case within the OBC been reviewed and does it remain valid? Section 3 FBC Comment: 2.2 Additionality Section 4 Page 19
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 8 Business Case Section Sub-Section FBC Appraisal Questions FBC Location 2.3 Benefit 2.3.1 Have the benefits of the Preferred Option identified within the OBC changed? If they have these should be clearly detailed. If this is a sub-Project of the OBC, has the FBC detailed the outputs and outcomes that it will deliver? Section 4 FBC Comment: 2.3.2 Have the disbenefits of this project/sub-project been listed and clearly described? Section 4.4 FBC Comment: 2.3.4 Has the timescale for the realisation of benefits/disbenefits been provided? Appendix E FBC Comment: 2.3.7 Have clear measurement, monitoring and evaluation plans been identified to track the delivery of each stated benefit? Is this taken forward to Section 5.7? Section 7.9 FBC Comment: 2.3.8 If this FBC is a sub-project of an OBC, does this provide clarity on the benefits that are generated as a direct result of City Deal project investment, and those that are generated as a direct result of subsequent action by others e.g. follow-on private or public sector investment? Section 4 FBC Comment: 2.4 Cost/Benefit Analysis 2.4.1 Have any of the Project costs changed from those within the OBC (for example following the procurement process)? Section 4 FBC Comment: 2.4.3 Where costs have changed, has this had an impact upon the Value for Money calculation within the OBC? If costs have changed then the VfM calculations (BCR calculation within the OBC) should be reviewed and restated reflecting any changes. Section 4 FBC Comment: 2.5 Options Appraisal Results 2.5.1 Are the options identified within the OBC still valid? Section 3 FBC Comment: 2.5.2 Have the rankings of the options within the OBC been reviewed and are they still valid? Section 3 FBC Comment: 2.5.3 Have any of the key assumptions used within the options appraisal at OBC changed? If any of the assumptions have changed then the FBC must demonstrate that the Preferred Option continues to offer better public value. Section 4 Page 20
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 9 Business Case Section Sub-Section FBC Appraisal Questions FBC Location FBC Comment: 2.6 Preferred Way Forward/Preferred Option 2.6.1 Does the Preferred Option identified within the OBC remain the Preferred Option? Section 4 FBC Comment: 2.7 Sensitivity and risk profile 2.7.1 If the Preferred Option identified at OBC has changed, then has appropriate sensitivity analysis been completed? Section 4 FBC Comment: 3. Commercial Case 3.1 Commercial Aspects 3.1.1 Does the Preferred Option continue to address the needs of all parties and Project partners – the Member Authority, the City Deal, other direct funders, and wider Project partners (including those that are expected to deliver activity or outcomes as a result of City Deal investment)? Section 5 FBC Comment: 3.1.2 Have the funding options for the Preferred Option contained within the OBC changed? If yes, has evidence been provided of the alternative funding sources that have been adopted? Does the FBC set out the contractual arrangements for the negotiated contract? Section 5 FBC Comment: 3.1.3 Are there any changes to the requirements for follow on private/public sector funding as stated in the OBC? If this has changed then this change should be clearly described and quantified. Section 5 FBC Comment: 3.1.5 Where payments are to be made to external parties, has the circumstances or nature of these process changed from the description provided within the OBC? Section 6.4 FBC Comment: 3.2 Procurement Strategy 3.2.1 Has the procurement approach that was set out in the OBC been followed? If this has changed, has the reason for the change been clearly articulated and was the strategy still in line with the procurement regulations? Was the procurement process in line with the Glasgow City Region City Deal Procurement Strategy and compliant with City Deal Guidance? Section 5 FBC Comment: Page 21
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 10 Business Case Section Sub-Section FBC Appraisal Questions FBC Location 3.2.3 Does the body (or bodies) identified within the OBC to procure the Project remain unchanged? Section 5 FBC Comment: 3.2.5 Have the proposed contracting arrangements described within the OBC changed? If they have changed do the new contracting arrangements include appropriate conditions of contract? Section 5 FBC Comment: 3.2.6 Have the clear contractual milestones and delivery dates for the procurement process identified in the OBC been reviewed and confirmed/ updated as appropriate? Section 5 FBC Comment: 4. Financial Case 4.1 Financial appraisal 4.1.1 Is there a clear description of Project costs (split by individual element) phased over the delivery timescale detailed and quantified within the FBC? Have any changes since the OBC been detailed within the FBC? Section 6 FBC Comment: 4.1.3 Have appropriate benefit and monitoring evaluation costs been described and quantified, covering the full City Deal period to 2035? Section 6.5 FBC Comment: 4.1.4 Have funding sources been detailed and quantified within the FBC? Have any changes since the OBC been detailed within the FBC? Section 6 FBC Comment: 4.1.5 Does this clearly identify the direct City Deal funding (split 86% / 14%)? (n.b. 86/14% split should be clear statement within FBC and reiterated in Executive Summary) Have any changes since the OBC been detailed within the FBC? Section 6 FBC Comment: 4.1.6 Has the additional follow-on investment required to deliver the Project benefits, as specified in the OBC, been reviewed? Have any changes been described and quantified? Section 6.6 FBC Comment: 4.1.7 Has evidence been provided demonstrating that full budget funding has been secured and budgeted for by all parties – the Member Authority, other direct Project funders, other follow-on investment? Section 6 FBC Comment: 4.1.8 Has income from capital receipts related to this project been considered and included? Section 6 FBC Comment: Page 22
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 11 Business Case Section Sub-Section FBC Appraisal Questions FBC Location 4.1.9 Have the impacts on Member Authority income/expenditure a/c and on balance sheet been provided if applicable? Does this specifically include ongoing revenue costs to MA or other public sector organisation? Does this include both financing costs and operational running costs? Section 6 FBC Comment: 4.1.10 Is contingency still contained within the costing, and if so what is the value and %? What is the value and % of contingency, and where applicable Optimism Bias, for the Project? Does the level of contingency provided for seem reasonable? Section 6 FBC Comment: 4.1.11 How will VAT will be treated? Is there a description in the FBC of applicable VAT risks, and if so are they included in the Risk Register? Section 6 FBC Comment: 4.1.12 Have any guarantees been provided, or financial agreements made? Does this cover direct Project funding or follow-on investment? Are these guarantees from the Member Authority to third party, or vice-versa? How substantial are these agreements, and to what extent is the Project’s success dependent on these guarantees? Section 6 FBC Comment: 4.1.13 Linked to results at Section 1.8, have all relevant financial risks been identified, managed and allocated in the risk register, and are the key financial risks presented here, with clear mitigating actions? Section 6.7 FBC Comment: 5. The Management Case 5.1 Project roles 5.1.1 Have the Project roles and responsibilities for or this FBC been finalised and noted within the document? Have the appropriate skills and experience of the team members been described? Section 7 FBC Comment: 5.1.2 If the Project involves a grant to a third party, have the measures described within the OBC to ensure that the Project delivers outcomes on time, at scale, to quality etc. been put in place? N/A FBC Comment: 5.2 Project governance Structures 5.2.1 Have approval processes within the Member Authority been stated and followed, including stating the date of the member authority committee approval? Is the committee approval paper consistent with the FBC in terms of scope, finance, timeline, and benefits? Section 7.2 FBC Comment: Page 23
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 12 Business Case Section Sub-Section FBC Appraisal Questions FBC Location 5.2.2 Have robust Project management arrangements been clearly stated in relation to the operational delivery and future management of the completed Project within the Member Authority? Section 7.1 FBC Comment: 5.3 Community Benefits 5.3.1 Are the community benefits secured detailed, following the conclusion of the procurement process? Is this in line with the Glasgow City Region City Deal Community Benefits Strategy and can evidence that what has been secured in contract can be linked back to the City Deal Guidance? Section 7.9 FBC Comment: 5.4 Legal Matters and Required Approvals 5.4.1 Have the legal risks and issues which might affect the Project identified within the OBC been reviewed and updated? If this FBC is for a sub-Project of the OBC, are there any additional legal matters relating to this sub-Project that require to be considered? Section 7.7 FBC Comment: 5.4.2 Has external legal advice been taken on those risks/issues where it is appropriate to do so? Section 7.7 FBC Comment: 5.4.3 Have relevant legal risks been added to the risk register(s)? Section 7.7 FBC Comment: 5.4.4 Have appropriate mitigation measures and actions been put in place to deal with legal risks and issues which have arisen or which you anticipate may arise? Section 7.7 / Appendix D FBC Comment: 5.4.5 Have all required approvals and licences (for example planning approval, marine licence, SEPA licence, TAUS etc.) been secured? Do any conditions apply to the approval granted? Section 7.7 / Appendix D FBC Comment: 5.5 Project schedule 5.5.1 Has the Project schedule, including delivery dates and milestones, been reviewed and updated within the FBC? Section 7 FBC Comment: 5.6 Sustainability case Section 7 Page 24
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 13 Business Case Section Sub-Section FBC Appraisal Questions FBC Location 5.7 Project Monitoring 5.7.1 Have the Project measurement, monitoring and evaluation arrangements to track the delivery of the Project and each stated benefit described within the OBC been updated and finalised? Section 7.9 FBC Comment: 5.7.2 Is the monitoring and evaluation plan in line with the requirements of the Assurance Framework and Programme Business Case e.g. do the monitoring and evaluation arrangements cover the period until Project completion in 2035? Section 7.9 FBC Comment: 5.7.3 Has responsibility for Project monitoring and evaluation changed from the information provided within the OBC? Section 7.9 FBC Comment: Page 25
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 14 Business Case Appraisal Criteria Sign-off: (Signature) ............................................................................................................... (Date) ............................................................................................................... (Position) Gail Macfarlane, Chief Officer, West Dunbartonshire Council Project Sponsor Abbreviations and Terms AMSC: Application for Matters Specified in Conditions CEDA: Core Economic Development Area CVM: Chained Volume Measures ESR: Enterprise and Skills Review FBC: Full Business Case GDP: Gross Domestic Product GEA: Gross External Area GIA Gross Internal Area GNP: Gross National Product GVA: Gross Value Added HCA: Homes and Communities Agency LDP: Local Development Plan NIA: Net Internal Area NPPG National Planning Policy Guidelines NPV: Net Present Value OBC: Outline Business Case PMO: Programme Management Office PPIP: Planning Permission in Principle SBC: Strategic Business Case SCDI: Scottish Council for Development and Industry SDI: Scottish Development International SE: Scottish Enterprise SEPA: Scottish Environmental Protection Agency SMART: Strategic Measurable Achievable Relevant Timely SPA: Special Protection Area SPP Scottish Planning Policies SSSI: Site of Special Scientific Interest SUDS: Sustainable Urban Drainage System TEE: Transport Economic Efficiency TS: Transport Scotland Page 26
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 15 1 Introduction and Executive Summary 1.1 West Dunbartonshire City Deal Project 1.1.1 This document sets out the Full Business Case (FBC) for West Dunbartonshire Council’s (”the Council”) project under the terms of the Glasgow City Region City Deal. The project involves the redevelopment of the former oil terminal at Bowling - the Exxon Site Development Project. In due course, it is the Council’s intention to rename the project to better reflect the geographical location and intended future use of the site. 1.1.2 The FBC is for £44,324,635 of infrastructure capital funding in 2023/24 to support the development potential of the site at Bowling with £38,119,186 of funding (86%) sought from the City Region Deal Infrastructure Fund and the remaining £6,205,449 (14%) being funded by the Council. Agreement to transfer ownership of the site from Exxon to the Council was reached in October 2020 and will be concluded when Exxon complete the site remediation in Q4 2023. 1.1.3 The site is the location of the former Bowling Oil Terminal located between Dumbarton and Clydebank and is shown in the aerial photograph in Figure 1-1 below. It is currently disused having been levelled in 1997. Figure 1-1 Exxon Site Aerial View 1.1.4 There is a clear need to stimulate greater economic activity in West Dunbartonshire as there is a high degree of dependency on the public sector in the local economy and on out-commuting to the wider Glasgow City Region. There is also a shortage of employment in higher value positions in West Dunbartonshire despite the presence of a reasonably well-educated labour market. A lack of job opportunities is a significant barrier to economic growth in the area. Addressing these issues through the creation of additional employment land opportunities will have a significant impact across West Dunbartonshire and the wider City Region area. 1.1.5 As existing sites are built out to their capacity, the Exxon site has been identified as crucial to the economic development needs of West Dunbartonshire in the medium to longer term as a requirement for additional strategic development locations is anticipated. In a highly accessible location adjacent to the A82 Trunk Road and within proximity to the Erskine Bridge which Page 27
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 16 provides access to the M8, Glasgow Airport and the wider strategic road network, the site provides the ideal opportunity to facilitate this additional development. Further, in line with Clyde Mission criteria, proximity to maritime assets along the Clyde present a possible future development opportunity for the site. 1.1.6 The project entails the delivery of roads access, development platforms and supporting infrastructure required to enable the development of this strategically important site including, crucially, new road accesses at the eastern and western extents along with a spine road which will link the two accesses and open the site for development. 1.1.7 The site does face some significant constraints and challenges which affect its ability to be brought back into effective economic use. There are several environmental designations in existence adjacent to the site including a Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), a Special Protection Area (SPA) and a Ramsar Site (wetlands of international importance) which all have implications for the extent of the developable land as well as requiring mitigation measures to ensure environmental impacts are minimised. 1.1.8 The site is also constrained by its current transport links and new accesses are required. The site is bounded by the River Clyde, the Glasgow to Dunbartonshire and Argyll railway line (with Bowling station in close proximity), National Cycle Route 7, and the A82 Trunk Road and close to the Western terminus of the Forth and Clyde Canal. The creation of a new road through the site connecting to the A82 at the eastern and western extremities of the site will mean the developed site will benefit from excellent transport links. 1.1.9 The funding sought through the Glasgow City Region City Deal is required to deliver the transport, environmental and infrastructure works required to ready the site for development. 1.2 Business Case 1.2.1 This document represents the Full Business Case for the project. The Glasgow City Region City Deal Assurance Framework1 defines the purpose of the FBC as part of a cycle during which the maturity and level of analysis of a project is developed, and its readiness for delivery and implementation advanced. The purposes of the FBC are described by the guidance as: identify the spending option which optimises value for money (VFM); preparing the scheme for procurement; and put in place the necessary funding and management arrangements for the successful delivery of the scheme. 1.2.2 The Business Case has been compiled to meet the requirements of the Glasgow City Region City Deal Assurance Framework and seeks to ensure the proposed project meets the key criteria including: providing a framework for informed decision making in planning and management of the project, the City Deal Programme and subsequent benefits realisation; providing a clear and concise record of the status of the project and decisions made to date, and providing a consistent approach of reporting across the City Deal Programme, which is especially important considering the Independent Panel which will appraise the economic impact of the investments at the city region level. 1 Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal, The Glasgow and Clyde Valley Cabinet, Assurance Framework v2.5, 2021. Page 28
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 17 1.2.3 The Assurance Framework sets out the key requirements of the Business Case. This document has been structured to ensure transparency of the processes applied and an auditable account of the proposals. This document has been split into the following sections which track requirements as set out within the Assurance Framework: Strategic Case - To document why the project is required, what the project is, how it fits in with the City Deal Infrastructure Fund Programme and the wider local and national policy context and how it is intended to be implemented. Economic Case - Options Appraisal - To demonstrate how the preferred solution has been chosen and that all potential options were identified and compared, resulting in a Preferred Option that achieves all objectives and delivers best value for money. Economic Case – Short List Analysis - To identify the economic impact of the project. Commercial Case - To document the involvement of other parties and identify any challenges or risks this may present. Financial Case - To identify the forecast capital and revenue expenditure and income over the period of the project. Management and Sustainability Case - To assess whether the proposals are themselves sustainable and how they contribute to the wider sustainability agenda and to identify the team that will deliver the project, the proposed procurement process and the project schedule. 1.3 Project Contribution to City Deal Economic Case 1.3.1 The project directly contributes to the economic outcomes set out in the City Deal Infrastructure Fund. At a Glasgow City Region level, the project will enable the following benefits: Employment Land Development 45,512m2 employment floorspace by 2035 up to 19.10 hectares of employment land made available, including development platforms by 2026 Private Sector Investment £43.8m (non-discounted) of additional private sector investment by 2037 Employment Support 935 net additional construction jobs by 2037 970 net additional operational jobs by 2037 1.4 Strategic Need for the Project 1.4.1 West Dunbartonshire performs below average when considering key macro-economic indicators for the Glasgow City Region City Deal area and Scotland. There is a lack of jobs in West Dunbartonshire with job density only at 0.69 per head (compared with the City Region average of 0.79 and the Scottish average of 0.81) and has a high dependence on public sector employment. Page 29
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 18 1.4.2 Overall skill levels of West Dunbartonshire residents are marginally below sub-regional and national comparators, but a relatively skilled workforce is still available in the area. However, the population of West Dunbartonshire is both falling and ageing. 1.4.3 Addressing these issues through the creation of additional employment land opportunities will have a significant impact across West Dunbartonshire and the wider City Region area. 1.4.4 The Exxon site is of the scale required to meet project objectives and is in single ownership, albeit that other land is required for access. The site would be the largest concentration of potential employment land in West Dunbartonshire. Should access and other constraints be addressed, a high-quality, well-located site would be available within the by 2026. The site has the potential to offer a broad range of development and employment opportunities. City Deal funding offers the opportunity to address the site constraints in a comprehensive manner. 1.4.5 The diversion route in the event of a closure of the A82 between the A82/A814 Dunglass Junction and the A82/A814 Dumbuck junction is via neighbouring adjacent local authorities and is some 29 miles or thereby – a key concern for major employers and an issue that potentially depresses demand elsewhere in the Council area and beyond (e.g. Argyll and Bute). Delivery of the proposed site infrastructure will provide an alternative route at a key section of the road that mitigates this critical issue. 1.5 Current Position 1.5.1 The 61.71 hectare site is owned by Esso Petroleum Company Limited (otherwise known as Exxon) and accommodated the Bowling Oil Terminal until its decommissioning, which began in 1997. Given flood risks and known ground conditions on the site, the maximum developable area, including roads and development plots, is 19.10 hectares with the remaining areas retained as greenspace. 1.5.2 Exxon has agreed to transfer the site to the Council following remediation of contaminated land; expected to be completed by December 2023. 1.6 Options 1.6.1 An appraisal of long list options consisted of three parts: options for the location of a sizeable economic investment site, options for the use of the site (economic activity) and options for access to the site (infrastructure requirements). These were reported in the Outline Business Case. 1.6.2 From the high-level options appraisal, the Exxon site was identified as best placed to meet project objectives through investment in the necessary access and supporting infrastructure. 1.7 Project Scope 1.7.1 The project will entail delivery of road access and the supporting infrastructure required to enable development of the site. 1.7.2 One of the fundamental infrastructure requirements is the construction of road network accesses at the eastern and western extents of the site linked by a spine road through the site which will enable it to be accessed for development. 1.7.3 The site requires substantial investment in site preparation prior to development taking place, including remediation works (to be completed by the current owners prior to transfer to the Council), creation of new roads infrastructure, flood, environmental and drainage mitigation, and development platforms. 1.7.4 The City Deal project consists of: Page 30
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 19 1.95km of new spine road with associated drainage and lighting infrastructure; 1.32km of upgraded existing public road (A814); a new junction on the A82 at Dumbuck with closure of the existing junction; a remodelled junction on the A82 at Dunglass; an enhanced routing of 475m of the National Cycle Network Route 7 in the vicinity of the site; a new underbridge of the Glasgow – Dumbarton Railway at the western access to the site; a remodelled railway overbridge at the eastern access to the site; flood mitigation works; environmental mitigation works (but not remediation); site drainage works; and establishment of platforms for development across the site. 1.7.5 Key milestone dates are anticipated as follows: Commencement of works – October 2023 Completion of infrastructure works – December 2025 Project Monitoring and Evaluation - December 2025 – March 2045 1.8 Forecast Cost 1.8.1 The estimated project cost is £44,324,635 derived from market tested contractors’ costs based on the Detailed Design in June 2023. 1.8.2 It is anticipated that the Council’s share of the investment will be £6,205,449, representing 14%, with the remainder being funded by grant from the UK and Scottish Governments through the City Deal. 1.9 Proposed Team and Project Management Arrangements 1.9.1 An experienced multi-disciplinary management team has been formed within the Council to deliver the project. External consultancy and contractor support has been appointed to support the Council. A City Deal Project Board meets on a four-weekly basis to oversee project delivery. Page 31
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 20 2 Strategic Case 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 The Strategic Case for the project was set out in the Strategic Business Case (SBC) approved by the City Deal Cabinet in August 2015. The strategic need for the project was confirmed, and its key features outlined, in a revised Outline Business Case approved in March 2019. 2.1.2 In this FBC, the strategic need for the project, its key features and how it fits with the City Deal are updated and confirmed. 2.2 Strategic Need KEY POINTS - West Dunbartonshire’s economic performance is below average for many macro-economic performance indicators for the Glasgow City Region City Deal area and Scotland. - There is a lack of jobs in West Dunbartonshire with job density only at 0.69 per head and a high dependence on the public sector. The Glasgow City Region City Deal has 0.79 jobs per head and Scotland 0.81. - The diversion route in the event of a closure of the A82 between the A82/A814 Dunglass Junction and the A82/A814 Dumbuck junction is via neighbouring adjacent local authorities and is some 29 miles or thereby. The ‘problem and the need’ 2.2.1 This section provides a summary of the socio-economic baseline conditions within West Dunbartonshire and sets the context within which the longer-term impact of the proposed development will be measured. The baseline also delivers a current and prospective overview of the area, identifying constraints and barriers to growth as well as opportunities for development. These represent the foundation for assessing the need that will be met by the proposed development. 2.2.2 To ensure a thorough understanding of the socio-economic context in West Dunbartonshire, the baseline position is considered against the Glasgow City Region City Deal area and the national picture which are used to benchmark the local performance. Information is provided on the following socio-economic indicators: Gross Value Added (GVA); Employment performance and key sectors; Business demography; Demography; Earnings; Occupations and skills; Unemployment; Deprivation. 2.2.3 The results of the socio-economic analysis are summarised in the form of a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis of the West Dunbartonshire economy and presented in the table below. Page 32
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 21 Table 2-1 SWOT Analysis of West Dunbartonshire Economy Socio – economic STRENGTHS Socio – economic WEAKNESSES Location – the area has good links to the motorway network, Glasgow airport and to the city of Glasgow; it also benefits from its proximity to Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park. Environment – the area has some of the most outstanding countryside in lowland Scotland, with around 40% of land classified as open countryside. Population – the area’s population has been declining since 1981 as opposed to Scotland’s population which has risen over this period. Life expectancy – life expectancy at birth is lower than the Scottish average. Skills – on average, skills levels of residents are lower than sub-regional and national comparators. Economic performance – West Dunbartonshire continues to suffer from high levels of deprivation, high levels of unemployment and a smaller business base than the Glasgow City Region City Deal area and Scotland. Out-commuting - there is a net outflow of residents to jobs elsewhere. Socio – economic OPPORTUNITIES Socio – economic THREATS Regeneration initiatives – Waterfront (Queens Quay), Scottish Marine Technology Park, Clydebank, Dumbarton Waterfront, Strathleven and Alexandria are all examples of urban renewal where new homes, jobs and services can be created for the benefit of all. Population ageing – the age group that is projected to increase the most in size in West Dunbartonshire is the 75+ age group while the population aged under 16 is projected to decline over the next 20 years. Population projections – the population of West Dunbartonshire is projected to fall. Baseline Assessment 2.2.4 The socio-economic assessment of West Dunbartonshire paints a picture of an area suffering from persistent economic and structural challenges that characterise those areas formerly dependent on heavy industry. A full baseline assessment can be found in Appendix A In summary, the area is not showing strong signs of recovery and is facing several challenges in terms of: Macro-Economic performance: the GVA growth rate is below the Glasgow City Region City Deal and Scotland averages and labour productivity is also lower than the national average; Employment performance: employment in West Dunbartonshire is dominated by the service sector, and specifically, by public services and retail and catering; job density is at 0.69 meaning that there is less than one job for every resident aged 16-64, and a lower value the national (0.81) comparator; Business demography: the area has a smaller business base than the Glasgow City Region City Deal area and Scotland; Labour market: on average, skill levels of residents are lower than regional and national comparators and there are higher levels of unemployment than nationally; and Population: the population of West Dunbartonshire is not only decreasing but is also ageing. Page 33
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 22 2.2.5 The Exxon project presents a significant opportunity for these problems – in part – to be addressed. Rationale for Intervention 2.2.6 This section identifies the core requirements for transformational change in the West Dunbartonshire economy as: identification of the key sectors required to achieve it and their likely needs; and identification of large-scale sites which provide an opportunity for their comprehensive development and scope for expansion; and establishment of the infrastructure requirements associated with different options. 2.2.7 The analysis of each of these areas clearly shows high quality, effective employment sites of scale are needed to meet the challenges facing West Dunbartonshire’s economy. 2.2.8 The Exxon site is allocated for industrial/business opportunities in the proposed Local Development Plan 2 (LDP). The strategy for the site includes “the re-development of the Esso Bowling site primarily to increase the business and industry opportunities within West Dunbartonshire”. 2.2.9 The West Dunbartonshire Council Adopted Local Plan identifies the site as a Specialised Economic Development location and provides a reasoned justification: “The Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Joint Structure Plan 2000 designated the former ESSO Bowling Terminal as a Potential High Amenity Single User site. This was on the basis of the guidance in NPPG 2. However, this has now been superseded by SPP 2 which indicates that the existing supply of proven safeguarded sites should be able to meet future requirements. The Structure Plan 2006, in cognisance of SPP2, deletes all Potential Single User sites including Bowling. The site is therefore considered suitable for multiple economic development uses. However, it is recognised that the remediation and access costs of developing the site for business uses will require other mixed uses to facilitate development of the site. The site is within a Core Economic Development Area (CEDA). The site has not been placed in the Marketable Industrial Land Supply but areas within the terminal site may be added to the supply as proposals for the site to be redeveloped are brought forward.” 2.2.10 As demonstrated in the policy analysis below, the rationale for the intervention is supported by the land use planning context as set out in National Planning Framework 4, the Adopted Local Plan 2010 and Proposed Local Development Plan 2 that support the regeneration and development of the site. 2.2.11 Additionally, in the event of a closure of the A82 between the A82/A814 Dunglass Junction and the A82/A814 Dumbuck junction is via neighbouring adjacent local authorities and is some 29 miles or thereby. This has a knock-on effect for residents, visitors and businesses that rely on the arterial route. The proposed intervention provides a suitable route to the south of the A82 that negates the need for a lengthy diversion, creating wider benefits to those working, living, or visiting the West Highlands or the wider City Region. 2.2.12 Furthermore, the site also offers strategic advantages through its deep-water frontage, providing the opportunity for supporting supply chain businesses in the marine construction industry that is present within West Dunbartonshire. Page 34
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 23 Market Failure 2.2.13 HM Treasury Green Book guidance requires the investment rationale underpinning public sector interventions to clearly demonstrate any apparent market failure or provide evidence of where government distributional objectives are not being met. 2.2.14 Market failure is described as a situation whereby the allocation of goods and services is not efficient. The Green Book describes market failure as a situation “where the market mechanism alone cannot achieve economic efficiency”. 2.2.15 The infrastructure interventions proposed for the Exxon site, i.e. new access routes and infrastructure, show characteristics of pure public goods, namely: Non-excludability: the benefits derived from the proposed infrastructure interventions will not be confined solely to those funding them. Although the benefits to private sector developers will be captured in part by increased property and site values, it is likely the more significant benefits from the comprehensive regeneration initiated by the intervention will be enjoyed more broadly across the area and beyond; and Non-rival consumption: the marginal cost of an extra person using the proposed road infrastructure will be zero, i.e., its use by one person or group does not restrict its use by other users4. 2.2.16 Non-excludability and non-rival consumption jointly create a disincentive for the private sector to cover the full cost of the Exxon site infrastructure needs due to the potential free-rider problem, i.e., non-payers enjoying the benefits of the proposed interventions without bearing any financial costs. Therefore, public sector intervention is required to bridge the funding gap to develop public goods. 2.2.17 The market failure associated with public goods in the context of current transport provision to the site, underpins the socio-economic rationale for the project. The key market failure associated with the area surrounding the project, falls into three main themes: Physical limitations: whilst the public sector has identified the potential for development in this area, it is anticipated that comprehensive development will not take place until the infrastructure challenges identified are addressed5. Poor site access hampers business perceptions of the area and acts as a barrier to further growth. Public sector intervention de-risks the site and enhances the site’s development viability. In turn, the anticipated follow-on investment, indicated by discussions with potential site occupiers, will generate additional employment opportunities for local people. Additional road infrastructure to the south of the A82 will support residents and businesses in the local area and wider Scotland in the event of a closure of the A82. This type of infrastructure is unlikely to be funded by those users due to non-excludability and non-rival consumption jointly creating a disincentive for the private sector to cover the full cost. Operational limitations: if left to the private sector, it is likely that development of the area, if any, would be fragmented and piecemeal as better opportunities are presented elsewhere. Without public investment in a comprehensive development platforming approach to address flood and drainage requirements, development would be limited to a small proportion of the site or would not happen at all. The infrastructure interventions proposed, and the intended use of the site, pave the way for West Dunbartonshire’s 2 HM Treasury Green Book Guidance, 2022 3 HMT, The Green Book Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government, 2022. p.13 4 This assumes the proposed infrastructure will not have limiting capacity constraints. 5 Land contamination issues have now been resolved. Page 35
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 24 economy to diversify its portfolio of companies, increasing the area’s skills base and protecting the local economy from macroeconomic risks. Geographical limitations: the river location has been neglected for many years, due to the required remediation and access constraints but offers significant opportunities for creation of attractive employment land on the banks of the River Clyde. 2.2.18 Without the enabling infrastructure, the Exxon site cannot be brought to the market as the private sector will not fund the scale of enabling infrastructure required. Public sector investment will enable the socio-economic challenges facing the area to be addressed by removing the market failures which presently constrain development. The creation of a bespoke access route through the site from the A82 will support further diversification of the area’s employment base, particularly through opportunities presented to the storage, distribution, and advanced manufacturing industries. 2.2.19 The Council is well placed to oversee this project but requires external funding support to deliver the most efficient infrastructure solution for the area and fully exploit the opportunities presented by the additional employment land. The level of funding required to complete the infrastructure and release the much-needed employment land for the area would not be able to be fully met by the Council in a timescale that would make a discernible difference to the area. Further detail on the exploration of alternative sources of funding is contained within the Economic and Financial cases. 2.2.20 Investment in the infrastructure would not otherwise happen without City Deal investment to deliver economic regeneration of a significantly large enough scale, or as currently planned. By improving the quality of the proposed infrastructure, the intention is to increase the area’s capacity for further socio-economic prosperity. As demonstrated in subsequent sections of this FBC, the City Deal investment programme provides the economic potential to support 29,000 additional jobs and £2.2 billion of GVA growth per annum. The project will thus contribute towards the achievement of City Deal employment and GVA outcomes and priorities, by unlocking socio-economic opportunity through high quality transport investment that would otherwise not happen. 2.2.21 The financial costs associated with the project have been analysed in line with the investment required and available to the public sector. This has been carried out in line with the strategic rationale, economic need and potential for the area, including unlocking additional economic value from leveraged City Deal investment; unlocking investment earlier than would otherwise be achieved (i.e. the difference between the full intervention and the counterfactual (base) case and ‘Do Minimum’ scenario); and delivering sound value for money for the public purse that is realistic, sufficient in scale and strategically relevant. Why the Project is Needed Now COVID-19 Pandemic Impact 2.2.22 At a national level, the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – a measure of economic output – fell by an estimated 21.8% in Q1 2020. While strong growth in the latter half of 2020 stimulated a ‘V-shaped’ economic recovery, subsequent targeted lockdowns in COVID-19 hotspots throughout 2021, meant that the UK economy has been slow to recover to pre-pandemic levels. GDP only returned to its pre-pandemic peak in May 2022 and GDP growth has flatlined since as shown below. Page 36
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 25 Figure 2-1 Real GDP, Jan 2020 = 100 2.2.23 Scotland’s economy witnessed a similar pattern of slower growth. While a large public sector employment base provided a degree of shelter from pandemic-induced labour impacts, longer lasting restrictions meant economic recovery trailed the wider UK’s as shown below. Figure 2-2 Employment Rate Commercial Property 2.2.24 Analysis of for the Proposed LDP highlights the following key points: Take-up over the years 201-2018 equated to more than three times the ten-year average which if this trend continues will diminish the existing supply; 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 Jan 2020 Mar 2020 May 2020 Jul 2020 Sep 2020 Nov 2020 Jan 2021 Mar 2021 May 2021 Jul 2021 Sep 2021 Nov 2021 Jan 2022 Mar 2022 May 2022 Jul 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 76% 78% West Dunbartonshire Scotland Great Britain Page 37
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 26 The majority of the existing supply is marketable and therefore immediately available for development; There is a significant amount of non-marketable supply, equating to around 18 years supply, which includes existing industrial sites and sites reserved for business expansion. This includes the Exxon site, itself equating to almost 12 years supply. 2.2.25 Project options of suitable scale in West Dunbartonshire are limited to Lomondgate, Vale of Leven Industrial Estate and the Exxon site. Each of the options has a supportive planning designation. Lomondgate 2.2.26 Lomondgate has successfully developed the BBC’s presence at its Dumbarton studios, while also safeguarding and securing the headquarter presence of Aggreko in West Dunbartonshire. In May 2022, the company completed a £4.5 million ‘sustainably resourced low-carbon expansion’ of its production facility on the site6. While the momentum generated by its development will increase demand for floorspace in West Dunbartonshire, other large-scale opportunities will also be required to realise the required step change in economic activity. Vale of Leven Industrial Estate 2.2.27 The Vale of Leven Industrial Estate (VoLIE) is an industrial site that has fallen into decline. While home to Chivas – employing over 1,000 employees – it is also home to several vacant buildings and lower productivity operators that, whilst a necessary part of the local economy, fail to generate the higher-value GVA that West Dunbartonshire is seeking. The site has the potential to be redeveloped into a modern, competitive business location, but there are some challenges that need to be addressed. 2.2.28 One of the biggest challenges is the poor condition of the site. Many of the buildings are in disrepair and there is a lot of litter and graffiti. This creates an air of neglect and makes the site unattractive to potential investors. Another challenge is the lack of a cohesive management regime. The site is owned by several different companies, which makes it difficult to coordinate development and maintenance. This has led to a patchwork of different uses and standards, which makes the site look untidy and inconsistent. 2.2.29 Despite these challenges, there are multiple reasons to be optimistic about the future of the VoLIE. The site is in a strategic location, close to Glasgow and the M8 motorway – not too dissimilar to the Exxon site. It is also home to important industrial employers (e.g., Chivas Bros and Diamond Power) which could provide a platform for the Estate’s regeneration. Queens Quay 2.2.30 Queens Quay is progressing successfully. It has provided, and will continue to provide, employment opportunities in the area as key pieces of planned enabling infrastructure come forward. There are already several completed developments at Queens Quay, including: A £23.5 million leisure centre A new Clydebank health and care centre Care Centre 1,000 new diverse homes 6Available at: https://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/articles/aggreko-completes-ps45m-expansion-of- dumbarton-site Page 38
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 27 500,000 sq.ft of Grade A office space State-of-the-art leisure centre UK’s first zero carbon green energy centre. 2.2.31 In summary, West Dunbartonshire has the potential for further commercial development in its local economy. The area has several strengths that make it attractive to businesses, including a skilled workforce, a good transport network, a strong track record of innovation, and a commitment to sustainability. The development of the Exxon site will be a major opportunity for West Dunbartonshire to attract new businesses and boost its local economy. The site is in a prime location and has the potential to create hundreds of jobs. This makes it an ideal location for businesses that want to access a large market. 2.2.32 The development of the Exxon site is just one example of the opportunities that exist for commercial development in West Dunbartonshire. The area has a bright future and is well- placed to attract new businesses and investment. 2.2.33 On this basis, public sector investment is required to bring the site to a marketable condition to cater for anticipated demand for quality employment land as the area’s employment land supply becomes tighter. 2.2.34 If the sites are available, West Dunbartonshire has shown it can attract jobs. The figure below shows a comparison between the average commercial vacancy rate in West Dunbartonshire, versus the areas employment rate. As expected, the opposing directions of the linear lines indicate a relationship between lower vacancy rates and higher employment, suggesting that as commercial properties come online, West Dunbartonshire can meet the demand for jobs. Figure 2-3 Vacancy Rate vs. Employment Rate in West Dunbartonshire In summary, the strategic need and rationale for investing in the Exxon project now is: there is a constrained employment land supply identified in West Dunbartonshire. While VoLIE has some issues that are being resolved, these don’t reflect the demand for quality commercial land that the Exxon site addresses. Lomondgate is nearing capacity and Queens Quay is well developed; the Exxon site presents an attractive waterfront and remediated area of employment land; City Deal money has become available that will allow the Council to progress the site with all the necessary infrastructure. 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 76% 78% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Average Vacancy Rate Employment Rate Linear (Average Vacancy Rate) Linear (Employment Rate) Page 39
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 28 2.3 Existing Arrangements KEY POINTS - The site is the former home of the decommissioned Bowling Oil Terminal and covers an area of 61.71 hectares. - The site is currently disused and only generates economic activity from the decontamination works ongoing periodically as all fully commercial activity has ceased. - Remediation of contaminated land and provision of suitable enabling infrastructure would allow the economic development potential of the site to be unlocked. - Road closures on this section of the A82 mean a diversion of some 29 miles. 2.3.1 The figure below shows the location of the site on the north bank of the River Clyde, between the towns of Dumbarton and Clydebank. The site is around 16 km / 10 miles from Glasgow City Centre. It is in a strategic position on the transport network being adjacent to the A82 Trunk Road within proximity to the Erskine Bridge which provides links to the M8 and wider strategic road network. It is situated in an ideal location at the gateway to the Vale of Leven and Loch Lomond as well as onwards to Argyll and the Highlands whilst also being within proximity to the Glasgow city region. It consequently offers several competitive advantages. Figure 2-4 Site Location in Context 2.3.2 The wider site area (including mudflats and river) extends to 61.71 hectares of which the land element comprises 39.45 hectares. It has been owned and operated by Exxon for over 80 years. The site is disused and was demolished to ground level in 1997. Since closure, the entire Bowling site has become surplus to Exxon’s operational requirements and a disposal strategy is being progressed. Page 40
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 29 2.3.3 Currently the site makes virtually no contribution to economic activity in the area (only from periodic remediation works) as all fully commercial activity has ceased. In its current condition, it cannot be brought back into effective use and requires investment in suitable infrastructure (City Deal investment) to unlock its potential as a major centre of economic activity, generator of jobs and contributor to GVA at a local and regional level. Without the requisite investment in infrastructure, it is difficult to see how the site could ever become developable again. 2.3.4 Road closures on this section of the A82 would continue to cause onerous diversions for residents, visitors and businesses that rely on this arterial route. The construction of the spine road and supporting junction works will help to mitigate this diversion, improving the reliability of the A82, giving confidence to the road users from across the City Region and West Highlands. What Would Happen Without the Project? (The Counterfactual) 2.3.5 The site makes limited contribution to economic activity in the area (only periodic decontamination works) as all commercial activity has ceased. It cannot be brought back into effective use without investment in enabling infrastructure. 2.3.6 Under the counterfactual scenario the site will continue as disused brownfield land and as demonstrated above, the latent demand for land in West Dunbartonshire will not be able to be satisfied by this site. The City Deal intervention not only supports better access to fuller development capacity of the area but brings development forward earlier to support the overall City Deal programme timeline (up to 2035). 2.3.7 It has been demonstrated that the market failure present will continue to prevent market interest in the site and with no other sites of a similar scale in West Dunbartonshire currently being able to satisfy the demand for expanding or inward investing businesses, the economic performance of the area will continue to decline. Noting that Carless (17ha.), a site currently under development, is of a smaller scale than the Exxon site (33ha.). 2.3.8 The counterfactual situation will most likely lead to a widening of the jobs deficit that exists in West Dunbartonshire with an associated pressure on neighbouring areas as residents either commute to them to take up the employment opportunities that they offer, or residents move away from West Dunbartonshire to more prosperous economic areas. With working age population already forecast to fall, this could compound a negative trend in West Dunbartonshire as shown below. Figure 2-5 Forecast Change in Population of Working Age 2.3.9 The development of the Exxon site into a valuable economic asset will help to create additional job opportunities in West Dunbartonshire. Through the provision of attractive, high value employment opportunities in the local area, it is anticipated that West Dunbartonshire will be able to retain and attract a working age population, helping to stem forecast decline. 2.3.10 The forecast in terms of GVA presented in Figure 2-6 shows that although GVA in West Dunbartonshire is expected to increase from 2015 to 2031, this increase will be lower than the 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 West Dunbartonshire City Deal Scotland Page 41
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 30 regional and national rates. Exploring further and looking at the changes in the structural composition of the economy in West Dunbartonshire we expect that the public sector and retail sector will continue to expand while manufacturing and construction are likely to contract. In addition, the annual average growth rate in productivity (expressed as GVA per total FTE jobs) is estimated to be significantly higher than the average rate for Scotland and the Glasgow City Region City Deal area for agriculture and significantly lower for finance and insurance. Figure 2-6 Forecast Change in GVA 2.3.11 Chained Volume Measures (CVM) are defined as a series of economic data from successive years. They are measured in real terms by calculating the production volume for each year in the prices of the preceding year and then 'chain linking' the data together to obtain a time-series of production figures. From this approach, the effects of price changes have, at least in theory, been removed. In other words, from the raw GDP or GNP data, which reflect changes in both production volume and prices, a series is obtained which reflects only production volume. 2.3.12 The figures below show that in the absence of the project, the industrial structure is expected to remain relatively static. The project is required to affect change in the local economy’s employment structure, helping to diversify an area heavily reliant on public-sector employment. The additional space, made up of mostly storage and distribution, manufacturing and office, is expected to create a range of opportunities, helping to address local unemployment issues in the process. Figure 2-7 Forecast Change in Chained Volume Measure (CVM) in West Dunbartonshire 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 2020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035 Index of GVA (2015 = 1-00%) West Dunbartonshire City Deal Scotland 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016201820202022202420262028203020322034 Public Services (£mn CVM 2010 prices) Professional & Other Private Services (£mn CVM 2010 prices) Finance & Insurance (£mn CVM 2010 prices) Information & communication (£mn CVM 2010 prices) Page 42
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 31 Figure 2-8 Average Annual Growth Rate of Sectoral Productivity 2015 - 2035 2.3.13 It can be seen from Figures 2-7 and 2-8 that the counterfactual scenario will have an adverse impact on the economy of West Dunbartonshire and that there are significantly more benefits to be realised by enabling the site to be brought into a developable state. 2.3.14 Private sector investment to the extent required to provide the necessary access, flood risk mitigation and associated infrastructure is unlikely to be forthcoming, especially as the site cannot be used for housing – a restriction of the Title. 2.3.15 Indicative of the market failure present, the absence of City Deal funding the investment required to ensure the site is brought back to economic use would be very difficult to find. 2.3.16 Previous attempts have been made to interest the market in the site without success. Enquiries related to the potential for waterfront uses and access to the Clyde were received. However, site conditions, access through the site and the overall conditions likely to be attached to land transfer were barriers in progressing them. The Council also received tentative enquiries some years ago from a tree logging company seeking a site for a Sawmill. However, site conditions, including access and scale of the site for this single use made this unviable for the business. 2.4 Strategic and Policy Context for the Project KEY POINTS - The project is supported by National Planning Framework 4 which sets a positive framework for the redevelopment of brownfield land. - Increasing the access to a range of opportunities through the development of a mixed site. - Delivery of transport benefits to the wider area through the creation of a supporting spine road to the A82. - The proposed Local Development Plan 2 (LDP) identifies a need to ensure that there is sufficient shovel ready business and industrial land available and capable of meeting the needs of businesses within West Dunbartonshire. It also supports proposals for business and industrial allocated sites. - The proposed LDP identifies the site to increase the business and industry opportunities within the Council area. - The West Dunbartonshire Council Adopted Local Plan identified the site as a Specialised Economic Development Site. -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Manufacturing Construction Transport & storage Information & communication Professional & Other Private Services West Dunbartonshire City Deal Scotland Page 43
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 32 - Clyde Mission has identified the site as a priority project with potential to deliver against the five Clyde Missions, which would benefit from development support. 2.4.1 This section of the Business Case explains how the project aligns with the vision, objectives, and policies of relevant national, regional, and local policy documents and with the City Deal. Strategic fit with National Policy Scottish Government Strategic Objectives and Outcomes 2.4.2 The Government has five objectives that underpin its core purpose - to create a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. Objectives are set as follows: Wealthier and Fairer - Enabling businesses and people to increase their wealth and more people to share fairly in that wealth. Healthier - Helping people to sustain and improve their health, especially in disadvantaged communities, ensuring better, local, and faster access to health care. Safer and Stronger - Helping communities to flourish, becoming stronger, safer places to live, offering improved opportunities and a better quality of life. Smarter - Expanding opportunities to succeed from nurture through to lifelong learning ensuring higher and more widely shared achievements. Greener - Improving Scotland's natural and built environment and the sustainable use and enjoyment of it. 2.4.3 In addition to the five National Objectives, the Scottish Government has set Sixteen National Outcomes which help to articulate more fully the Government's Purpose. They allow priorities to be clearly understood and provide a clear structure for delivery. 2.4.4 Of the 16 National Outcomes, the proposed Exxon site development contributes to 6 as follows: We live in a Scotland that is the most attractive place for doing business in Europe – The proposed development will help diversify the local and regional business base and provide robust and reliable physical infrastructure that helps businesses grow and compete internationally. In addition, the site will enable an attractive waterfront development that is well connected to strategic assets such as Glasgow Airport. We realise our full economic potential with more and better employment opportunities for our people – The proposed development can provide high quality employment opportunities and make a positive contribution to increasing the prosperity and wealth of West Dunbartonshire. The site will allow West Dunbartonshire to make efficient use of available space, helping the area and the wider City Region to realise its full economic potential. We are better educated, more skilled and more successful, renowned for our research and innovation – The proposed development will help reduce economic inactivity and provide the type of accommodation that may be attractive to companies offering high quality learning and development opportunities to encourage skills development. We have tackled the significant inequalities in Scottish society – The proposed development can contribute to improving access to the labour market for the poorest and most disadvantaged and tackle the significant inequalities in the area. Page 44
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal - Full Business Case 33 We live in well-designed, sustainable places where we are able to access the amenities and services we need – The proposed development will represent an environmentally, socially and economically sustainable place providing easy access to a range of workplaces and services for people in the area and attracting and retaining the skills and talent required to achieve sustainable economic growth. The infrastructure interventions will support residents and businesses that rely on this important network between the West Highlands and the City Region. We value and enjoy our built and natural environment and protect it and enhance it for future generations – The proposed development will have significant positive land-use impacts on the local community, and on the natural and built environment. 2.4.5 Scotland’s Economic Strategy was published by Scottish Government on 3rd March 2015. It sets out an overarching framework for a more competitive and fairer Scotland and forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy. The Strategy is based on two key pillars: increasing competitiveness and tackling inequality. Delivering the required infrastructure to enable the development of the Exxon site, will directly contribute to ‘realising Scotland’s full economic potential with more and better employment opportunities for our people’. 2.4.6 Table 2-2 below provides a summary of how the proposed development fits with the main national policy and/or strategy documents. Page 45
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 34 Table 2-2 Project fit with National Policies and Strategies Policy/Strategy Document Status and Purpose of Document Relevance for Proposed Project Levelling Up the United Kingdom Published February 2022, the Levelling Up White Paper sets out how we will spread opportunity more equally across the UK. The UK Government is committed to ‘levelling-up’ across the whole of the United Kingdom. Part of the levelling-up agenda relates to improving transport links and investing in infrastructure that improves everyday life across the UK, particularly in areas of high deprivation. It also aspires to restore local pride across the UK through the regeneration of communities and places. In the context of this project, the ‘levelling-up’ comprises of improved access to employment sites and related opportunities in West Dunbartonshire. Physical capital – the project directly invests in infrastructure required to support commercial development in West Dunbartonshire. Human capital – the commercial space enabled will help to support access to employment opportunities in West Dunbartonshire and the wider City Region, helping to ‘level up’ communities and their skills. Intangible capital – the commercial space enabled will help to drive innovation, ideas and patents. Scotland's National Strategy for Economic Transformation Published by Scottish Government on 1st March 2022. Sets out the priorities for Scotland’s economy as well as the actions needed to maximise the opportunities of the next decade to achieve our vision of a wellbeing economy. The Strategy is based on delivering a fairer, wealthier, and greener Scotland. It aims to make Scotland's businesses, industries, regions, communities, and public services more productive and innovative. Development of the Exxon site will directly work towards achieving investment in infrastructure and assets and indirectly supports innovation, inclusive growth and internationalisation through the investment in people, achieved by the follow-on investment and future occupiers. Page 46
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 35 Policy/Strategy Document Status and Purpose of Document Relevance for Proposed Project Scottish Enterprise 2021/22 Business Plan Published by Scottish Enterprise in 2021, the plan sets out the priorities and areas of focus of Scottish Enterprise and what they will deliver. The Business Plan builds on the growth opportunities identified in Scotland’s Economic Strategy and places an emphasis on working with regional partners to accelerate the Clyde Mission, driving sustainable and inclusive growth for the city, region and Scotland. Once enabled for development, the Exxon site will support a wide range of businesses in key sectors at a critical point on along the Clyde, particularly in the support of the marine industry which is prominent in West Dunbartonshire. Furthermore, the development will support short term employment in the construction industry. National Planning Framework 4 Published by Scottish Government on 13th February 2023. National Planning Framework 4 (NPF4) is our national spatial strategy for Scotland 2045. It sets out our spatial principles, regional priorities, national developments, and national planning policy. The vision of this long-term spatial strategy is to build a Scotland which has: sustainable places, where we reduce emissions, restore and better connect biodiversity; liveable places, where we can all live better, healthier lives; and productive places, where we have a greener, fairer, and more inclusive wellbeing economy. The Strategy is supportive of regeneration of the Glasgow City Region to address nationally significant and longstanding issues of disadvantage. Clyde Mission is identified as a national, place-based Mission to make the Clyde an engine of economic success for Glasgow and the city region. Significant land assets are under-utilised and long standing inequality in relation to poor environment and health outcomes require to be tackled The Clyde Mission, which covers the Exxon site, as National Developments together with Central Scotland Green Network including West Dunbartonshire area. The development of the Exxon site will help to achieve the vison of the spatial strategy though the re-use of vacant land, supporting employment in the area and through enhancing the connectivity in the area. A Manufacturing Future for Scotland Published by Scottish Government 15th February 2016 Action Plan to work with industry to: Deliver concrete initiatives to boost productivity including leadership, employee engagement and skills, energy efficiency and the adoption of circular economy approaches across the manufacturing sector. Stimulate innovation and investment in Scottish manufacturing sectors to better compete globally. Manufacturing jobs in Scotland are typically high-skilled and well-paid. Sector specific support can therefore support regional growth, address employment and wage imbalances and establish high value supply chain linkages. The Council, in conjunction with managing the infrastructure works, will continue to market the site to high value sectors. Page 47
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 36 Policy/Strategy Document Status and Purpose of Document Relevance for Proposed Project UK Industrial Strategy: Building a Britain fit for the Future Published by the British Government 27th November 2017. The vision of this industrial strategy is to create an economy that boosts productivity and earning power throughout the UK. It identifies the 5 foundations of productivity as: Ideas - encouraging an increase in investment in Research & Development to 2.4% of GDP by 2027, increasing fiscal incentives for R&D and investing £725m in Industrial Strategy Challenge funds to support industrial innovation; People - developing world-class technical education standards and facilities, investing in STEM subjects, and establishing a National Retraining Scheme; Infrastructure - increasing National Productivity Infrastructure funding to £31bn, supporting housing, transport and digital infrastructure; supporting higher capacity digital and utilities infrastructure; Business environment - establishing Sector Deals between Government & industry to boost productivity. Investment in high potential business will also be strengthened; and Place - agreeing local Industrial Strategies harnessing local strengths and opportunities. Improved connections to and between cities are also supported. The Exxon site is consistent with the ambitions of the national Industrial Strategy in that it will tackle barriers to growth and assist productivity gains by increasing the supply of employment land in West Dunbartonshire. The project will create high quality jobs assisting the redress of inequalities at the local authority and City Region level. Enterprise & Skills Review Announced by the Scottish Government in May 2016. Now in implementation phase, the review is being overseen by the Enterprise and Skills Strategic Board. The Enterprise & Skills Review (ESR) was prepared in part to guide the development of regional approaches to economic development while pursuing Scotland’s Economic Strategy. It recognises the significance of improved regional performance in driving national growth. The ESR accordingly promotes locally driven responses tailored to local and regional needs. It promotes programmes which can deliver measurable success against five high level Inclusive Growth outcomes: Economic Performance & Productivity – resilient, sustainable and inclusive economic growth; Labour Market Access – Improved access to labour markets and jobs, inequality of opportunity to access work is addressed; Fair Work - Fulfilling, secure and well-paid jobs, where employees’ contributions are encouraged, respected and valued; Page 48
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 37 Policy/Strategy Document Status and Purpose of Document Relevance for Proposed Project People - Economic benefits and opportunities are spread more widely across Scotland’s population, with lower poverty levels, and more equal income and wealth distribution; and Place - More economic opportunities across Scotland’s cities, towns regions and rural areas ensure sustainable growth. The baseline assessment shows West Dunbartonshire performs poorly against several related indicators. The economic case demonstrates how the project will contribute to reducing key inclusive growth differentials, including the anticipated number of jobs that the intervention will support, along with the wider benefits that the project will deliver. It tackles economic performance and productivity by opening up currently derelict land to employment uses generating high value jobs which contribute to the above inclusive growth outcomes. Page 49
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 38 Strategic fit with Regional Policy 2.4.7 Table 2-3 below provides a summary of how the Council’s project fits with the main regional policy and/or strategy documents. 2.4.8 Specifically, the infrastructure delivery will support preparation of plots targeting advanced manufacturing, storage and distribution investment, directly contributing to achieving the objectives of supporting economic recovery via new strategic freight hubs and investment locations across the City Region. Table 2-3 Project fit with Regional Policies and Strategies Policy/Strategy Document Status and Purpose of Document Relevance for Proposed Project Glasgow's Regional Economic Strategy Identifies three Grand Challenges: Creating an Inclusive Economy; Enhancing Productivity; and Addressing the Climate Emergency. By addressing these challenges, the Glasgow City Region aims to have "the most innovative, inclusive and resilient economy in the UK" by 2030. There are several transformational opportunities that development of the Exxon site can help to reshape the economy for all. Specifically, the follow-on development can help to strengthen the areas Foundational Economy; support High Growth Sectors where there is commercial interest (e.g., maritime manufacturing), while establishing a greater sense of Place on a key site along the Clyde. Clyde Mission Clyde Mission’s purpose is to use the Clyde to drive sustainable and inclusive growth for the city, the region and Scotland. The Exxon project will contribute directly towards the Clyde Mission objectives through site remediation (achieving sustainability) and delivering a wide array of employment opportunities for the City Region (achieving inclusive growth) Page 50
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 39 Strategic fit with Local Policy West Dunbartonshire Local Development Plan: Proposed Plan (August 2020) 2.4.9 The Proposed Plan was modified in August 2020 to reflect the recommended modifications of the Examination Report. The Plan will not be adopted following a decision to that effect taken by the 15 March 2023 Planning Committee. However, it provides the most up to date spatial strategy for West Dunbartonshire and will remain a material consideration in decision making. 2.4.10 The Plan sets out the Council’s strategy, policies, and proposals for the use of land and buildings within the Council area (with the exception of that part of the authority within the Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park) for the period from 2020 to 2030. The Plan’s aim is to create places for people, spaces for investment and destinations to visit and enjoy. 2.4.11 The proposed LDP sets out a Spatial Strategy for West Dunbartonshire influenced by the area’s location within the Glasgow and Clyde Valley area, its geography and history. This Spatial Strategy is supported by Delivering Our Places: the key areas for regeneration and development within the area’s existing communities. The Exxon site at Bowling is identified as a key regeneration area and the proposed LDP sets out the policy framework for development proposals on the site as shown in Figure 2-9 below. Figure 2-9 Extract from Proposed LDP Showing Development Proposals Page 51
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 40 2.4.12 The site is allocated as a business and industry opportunity. The Development Strategy for the site is: redevelopment of the Esso Bowling site primarily to increase the business and industrial opportunities within West Dunbartonshire; to use the development of the sites to enhance the Green Network; the provision of a link road which offers access to development and a secondary access for the A82; and to protect the qualifying interests and qualities of the Special Protection Area and SSSI. 2.4.13 The site is identified as being of a scale that could offer significant investment and employment in West Dunbartonshire. The plan supports the following uses on the site: Class 4, 5 and 6 Business and Industrial; Leisure; Tourism; Maritime related uses in relation to Dunglass Bay and other appropriate uses that require deep water channel access; and Restoration of Dunglass Castle for leisure and tourism. 2.4.14 To the west and south of the site are mudflats and saltmarshes which are designated as a Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), a Special Protection Area (SPA) and a Ramsar Site (wetlands of international importance) because of their ecological importance. 2.4.15 On the site, there are the B-listed Dunglass Castle and the Henry Bell Obelisk Memorial which could be restored and developed for leisure and tourism uses. 2.4.16 Table 2-4 below provides a summary of how the project fits with other local policy and/or strategy documents. Delivering the required infrastructure to enable the Exxon site to be developed will contribute directly towards the Council’s Infrastructure Investment Plan, assisting the Council and the private sector to deliver sites to accommodate the area’s economic growth. The infrastructure associated with the Exxon site de-risks investment by potential occupiers and private sector developers and improves site viability. Page 52
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 41 Table 2-4 Project fit with Local Policies and Strategies Policy/Strategy Document Status and Purpose of Document Relevance for Proposed Project West Dunbartonshire Draft Economic Development Strategy 2020 - 2027 Published by West Dunbartonshire Council in 2022 Provides a vision for economic development to 2027. Vision: ‘By 2027, West Dunbartonshire will have an inclusive and vibrant economy through the creation of fairer jobs, a drive towards net Zero, and the development of prosperous places in partnership with our communities and businesses’ The vision for West Dunbartonshire is focused on increasing prosperity and economic growth while ensuring that this growth is distributed as equitably as possible throughout the area. The new Strategy aims to achieve this vision through the following key strategic priorities: Stimulating economic investment and growing the business base. Establishing an inclusive economy by improving the skills of our people and supporting them into work. Creating a prosperous place where people choose to live, work, visit and invest. Addressing climate change and supporting a green recovery Building stronger partnerships and new approaches to delivery. The Strategy identifies several projects and initiatives to maximise West Dunbartonshire’s competitiveness as an investment location. The Strategy specifically states the importance of ensuring sufficient ‘resources are allocated to develop the Exxon City Deal project.’ West Dunbartonshire Strategic Plan 2022-2027 Published by West Dunbartonshire Council in 202022. Sets a vision for 2027 and priorities for achieving this. The Council’s Strategic Plan 2022 – 2027 contains the strategic priorities which provide the focus for the Council for the next five years. All the priorities are relevant to the project, however the two priorities most directly related are: Our Communities: Resilient and Thriving Our Economy: Strong and Flourishing The Strategic Plan also defines the Council Vision: Page 53
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 42 Policy/Strategy Document Status and Purpose of Document Relevance for Proposed Project Delivering services which build on the strengths and resilience of our neighbourhoods and supporting all residents to fulfil their individual potential, and that of their communities. Page 54
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 43 Strategic fit with and contribution to the Glasgow City Region City Deal 2.4.17 The Glasgow City Region City Deal is an agreement between the UK Government, the Scottish Government and eight local authorities across the Glasgow City Region. It was signed on 20th August 2014. The local authorities have developed a set of proposals which are intended to deliver: an Infrastructure Fund of £1.13 billion to improve the transport network across the Glasgow City Region and develop and regenerate key sites; growth in the life science sector; support to enable small and medium enterprises to grow and develop; programmes to tackle unemployment targeted at young and vulnerable residents; new ways of increasing the income of people on low wages. 2.4.18 The programme comprises eighteen local authority projects and two strategic projects. The Council has one project identified as part of the Infrastructure Fund portfolio. 2.4.19 The project was selected by due to its ability to directly contribute to the economic objectives of the City Deal as shown in the table below. It will provide the road and supporting infrastructure improvements required to renew investor and developer confidence in the long-term sustainable development of a former, and long term unused, industrial site. Table 2-5 City Region Deal Objectives and Exxon Site Contribution City Deal Objectives Exxon Contribution Support an overall increase in the economy of around 29,000 jobs. The anticipated follow-on investment into the Exxon site will help to support up to 970 net additional jobs across the City Region by 2037. Work with 19,000 unemployed residents and support over 5,500 back into sustained work. The Exxon site will support a range of employment opportunities, including 895 net additional short term construction jobs by 2037. Lever in an estimated £3.3 billion of private sector investment. It is anticipated that the Exxon site will stimulate up to £43.8m in private sector investment by 2037. Deliver £2.2 billion in additional Gross Value Added (GVA) per annum (a 4% uplift) across the city region. It is estimated that delivery of the Exxon site will stimulate up to £520m of GVA by 2047. £288m by 2037 2.4.20 The enabled development of the Exxon site will achieve the objectives of the Glasgow City Region Deal through: Unlocking additional employment land, providing expansion space for existing and inward investing high value enterprises in West Dunbartonshire and across the City Region. Page 55
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 44 Creating the opportunity for a diversified employment base, helping to secure employment opportunities for local and regional residents. Improving the transport infrastructure of the area, reinforcing the strategic positioning of West Dunbartonshire as a gateway to the North West of Scotland from the rest of the City Region. 2.5 Project Objectives KEY POINTS - The project objectives are focussed on increasing economic activity in West Dunbartonshire and creating a major growth opportunity in a unique location to drive growth across the Glasgow City Region. The project will provide more local employment opportunities and facilitate sustainable economic development through local living and working. 2.5.1 The project seeks to address long-standing issues facing West Dunbartonshire’s economy whilst developing the potential of its stronger marine manufacturing and related sectors, as well as strategically developing the opportunities for supply chain development though storage and distribution. City Deal funding will enable suitable site access, flood mitigation and associated infrastructure to be provided to enable development platforms to be created. A high-quality, large-scale site will then be available to provide significant and transformational support to the continuing efforts of the Council and its partners to meet the following objectives. Objective 1: Increase the range of commercial and industrial activity in the area; o to increase the volume of higher value-added economic activity; o to increase resilience to market fluctuations; and o to ensure availability of high-quality business and industrial land to accommodate long term growth. 2.5.2 This will be demonstrated through increased GVA, and the proportion of GVA generated in high growth sectors; a broader business base, with increased reliance on a broad base of private sector activity; and reductions in the scale of change in key GVA and employment indicators. Continued monitoring of the employment land supply will identify emerging availability constraints. Key Baseline Data Against Which to Measure the Impact of the Project GVA per capita: £ 17,499 (West Dunbartonshire – 2018) Employment in Public Admin, Education and Health: 40.9% (2021) Objective 2: Raise levels of economic activity, providing a platform for significant employment and job opportunities for those with differing levels of qualifications and skills. 2.5.3 While the project will increase economic activity rates across West Dunbartonshire and the wider Glasgow City Region, its effects can be particularly pronounced in disadvantaged areas. Levels of economic activity, employment and unemployment will be monitored to demonstrate progress. The project will affect the occupational profile of West Dunbartonshire employees, with a higher proportion involved in skilled and professional activity. Page 56
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 45 Key Baseline Data Against Which to Measure the Impact of the Project Employment in Professional Occupations: West Dunbartonshire Residents – 19.6% (2022) Employment Rate: 77% economically active (2022) Average Earnings: West Dunbartonshire £616 gross weekly pay (2022) Objective 3: Create additional and sustainable employment opportunities for West Dunbartonshire communities, increasing the proportion of people who live and work in the area. 2.5.4 Investment in infrastructure and subsequent commercial and industrial development of scale is intended to increase West Dunbartonshire’s attraction as a place to live. It is anticipated that net employment increases will also be reflected in first stabilisation and then increasing population levels. Net out-commuting will reduce. The size of the working age population (particularly young families), volume and type of houses, and travel to work patterns will be monitored to establish project progress. 2.5.5 Economic activity will follow infrastructure and site enabling works and subsequent development, with substantial progress anticipated in years 12-25 of the Programme. Before this, a Community Benefits strategy would engage local people, providing opportunities for West Dunbartonshire residents combining employability and construction training, trades certification, apprenticeships, and work experience throughout the construction programme. This will be evidenced through the number of contractors engaging with the programme; increased construction employment locally; increased employment and reduced unemployment in areas targeted by the programme ensuring Community Benefit addressed through procurement of works packages. Key Baseline Data Against Which to Measure the Impact of the Project Travel to Work: West Dunbartonshire net daily outflow of over 7,000 commuters – 10,500 in- commuters and 17,700 out-commuters Travel to Work: 46.9% of West Dunbartonshire residents work in the area, with the rest sourcing employment outside the area. 2.5.6 Table 2-6 provides the project’s objectives in detail. For this FBC, there has been emphasis on developing objectives that are SMART: Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant and Time- bound. Page 57
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 46 Table 2-6 Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant and Time-bound (SMART) Objectives SMART Objectives Objective Specific Measurable Attainable Relevant Time-bounded Diversify the range and value of commercial and industrial activity in the area. Objective seeks to: increase the volume and value of economic activity in West Dunbartonshire, particularly in manufacturing, storage and distribution and related sectors - £523m additional GVA by 2047. Measurable by assessing productivity (GVA per head) in key sectors; new business formation rates; private sector high value, high skilled jobs; commercial and industrial floorspace levels and occupancy rates. Enabling the site for employment uses will provide the necessary large-scale employment site to allow West Dunbartonshire to build on its strengths, develop local supply chains and build resilience to market fluctuations. Private sector investment and employment is required to help rebalance a local economy that relies on a disproportionately high level of public sector jobs. 44,550m2 of mixed commercial space to be developed by 2035. Raise levels of economic activity, providing a platform for significant employment and job opportunities for those with differing levels of qualifications and skills. The Exxon site will provide for a mix of use classes and thus a diverse range of jobs, supporting the local economy. 970 additional jobs by 2037. Measurable by monitoring the levels of economic activity; unemployment; Job Seekers Allowance Claimant Rates and employment structure. The infrastructure delivered by the project will enable a major employment site. The employment generated will positively influence economic activity; employment levels and provide high skilled manufacturing jobs West Dunbartonshire is characterised by low employment density; pockets of severe deprivation and a reliance on public sector jobs. The Exxon project can help support valuable jobs in the local area. 44,550m2 of mixed commercial space to be developed by 2035, providing valuable job opportunities for the local area. Build sustainable West Dunbartonshire communities, increasing the proportion of people who live and work in the area. High value skilled employment opportunities will help retain young people and encourage the return of skilled educated former residents and in- migrants. Prevent working age population falling below 85% of 2015 levels. Measurable by assessing the number and proportion of working age residents who live and work in West Dunbartonshire and reducing residents travel to work patterns. Employment opportunities will provide jobs for skilled labour in a sustainable major employment site. West Dunbartonshire is characterised by high levels of out-migration and projected population decline. Preventing the decline of the working age population, below 85% by 2030 (based on 2015 levels). Page 58
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 47 2.6 Project Summary 2.6.1 Within the timeframe being considered, there are no equivalent opportunity sites in West Dunbartonshire for development of industrial / distribution / commercial space at the scale required. Other major Council regeneration initiatives have a major residential component. The Exxon site is uniquely non-residential. 2.6.2 One of the fundamental infrastructure requirements is the construction of road network accesses at the eastern and western extents of the site linked by a spine road through the site which will enable it to be opened up for development. This new asset is also expected to support wider business confidence through providing a relief road that mitigates the effects of incidents on that section of the road. 2.6.3 The project will deliver economic benefits to West Dunbartonshire by creating the conditions that will unlock the potential of the site for development. 2.6.4 To realise the delivery of the infrastructure a series of tasks must be undertaken to obtain the necessary consents for infrastructure and put in place a plan for implementation that minimises risks and ensures all key stakeholders are kept engaged and in agreement with the proposals at all stages of the project. Project Deliverables 2.6.5 The site requires substantial investment in site preparation prior to development taking place including decontamination works (now completed), creation of new roads infrastructure, flood, environmental and drainage mitigation (City Deal investment). 2.6.6 City Deal money will be spent on: 1.95km of new spine road with associated drainage and lighting infrastructure; 1.32km of upgraded existing public road (A814); a new junction on the A82 at Dumbuck with closure of the existing junction; a remodelled junction on the A82 at Dunglass; an enhanced routing of 475m of the National Cycle Network Route 7 in the vicinity of the site; a new underpass of the Glasgow – Dumbarton Railway at the western access to the site; a remodelled railway overbridge at the eastern access to the site; flood mitigation works; environmental mitigation works (but not remediation); site drainage works; and establishment of platforms for development across the site. 2.6.7 The site boundary, including the areas where accesses will be formed, is shown in Figure 2-10. Page 59
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 48 Figure 2-10 Site Boundary Page 60
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 49 2.6.8 The wider site area (including mudflats and river) extends to 61.71 hectares of which the land element comprises 39.45 hectares. The total developable area within the site, including for all roads and development plots, extends to 19.10 hectares. This area excludes land currently designated as greenbelt at the western extent of the site (7.82 hectares) and it excludes land with the greatest level of flood risk and unsuitable ground conditions (11.35 hectares). 2.6.9 The site requires substantial investment in site preparation prior to development taking place. One of the fundamental infrastructure requirements is the construction of road network accesses at the eastern and western extents of the site linked by a spine road through the site which will enable it to be accessed for development. 2.6.10 Currently the development potential of the site is constrained by a sub-standard (private) access at its eastern extent and no access at its western extent. Work has been undertaken to identify the optimum solutions for access and details are provided in Chapter 3. Masterplan 2.6.11 To take full account of the various access, ecological, environmental, landscape, topographical, physical and flood risk constraints affecting the site, a Masterplan has been approved which will direct future development of the site and help maximise the land available for development. 2.6.12 Planning Permission in Principle (PPiP) DC 20/088 was granted in January 2021 for the development of up to 44, 450m2 of commercial industrial floorspace, link road with upgraded junctions on the A82 and A814, a railway underbridge and an overbridge, landscaping , green network and public realm improvements, flood defences, drainage, transport and utilities infrastructure including the formation of platforms for development across the site. The permission included the approval of a masterplan. An Application for Matters Specified in Conditions (AMSC) will be submitted in June 2023. Details are provided below. 2.6.13 Figure 2-11 shows the approved Masterplan. Page 61
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 50 Figure 2-11 Approved Masterplan Page 62
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 51 Detailed Design 2.6.14 The principles of the Masterplan development have been advanced through development of the detailed design for the City Deal infrastructure project. The infrastructure design package is intended to enable access to 'development platforms’ for end users in the form of individual plots of land available for development by investors or end users. 2.6.15 The infrastructure that forms the design package includes: Roads and associated transport infrastructure. A detailed design based upon the approved PPiP Masterplan. Bridges. There is the need for a new underpass under the live railway at the west of the site and a remodelled overbridge (current access) at the east of the site upgraded to adoptable standards. Development platforms for end users. Ensuring that investment in development of the site can be accelerated. Flood risk mitigation measures. Development of flood risk mitigation measures (raised development platforms) on the site to protect the development. SuDS compliant drainage. A drainage strategy has been developed for the entire site rather than for the individual plots. This allows for the amalgamation of SuDS features such as drainage ponds etc and improves the overall efficiency of the drainage works. Public utilities. These will be located within the proposed roads infrastructure. Detailed Planning Application for Roads and Infrastructure 2.6.16 The PPiP included seven conditions which are to be submitted as part the Approval of Matters Specified in Condition (AMSC) applications. For the first AMSC application it is proposed that information relating to the following be submitted: Condition 1 (a & d) – Detailed Design Plans and Drawings (a) Development platforms and site layout plans showing the position of all, roads, access arrangements, footpaths, green corridors open space, boundary treatments and drainage infrastructure (d) Location and species of trees, shrubs, hedges palette of hard landscaping materials and street furniture Condition 2 - Design & Construction Management Plan and Operational Phase Management Plan Condition 12 - Supporting Report to demonstrate accordance with approved Landscape Framework and Strategy (Condition 11) Condition 24 – Bus stop provision Condition 30 - Species Survey/Species Protection Plan 2.6.17 Phase 1: consists of the ‘City Deal Works’, which comprises the following: Eastern Junction improvement (October 2023 to December 2026); Page 63
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 52 Western Junction improvement (October 2023 to December 2026); Overbridge East (October 2023 to December 2026); New Spine Road (October 2023 to December 2026); Underbridge West (March 2024 to December 2026). Landscape earth works associated with the new roads. 2.6.18 The wider landscaping is part of a later phase and is linked to the Low Carbon Vacant and Derelict Land Investment Programme together with the waterfront path along the River Clyde. 2.6.19 Phase 2: The is the creation of three development platforms (East, Central and West) and will be developed in a single works package. 2.6.20 Phase 3: Landscaping and Utilities and Energy Infrastructure Facilities will follow the infrastructure works. 2.6.21 Phase 4: On-site buildings, Dunglass Castle & Henry Bell Obelisk works will then conclude the site development. 2.6.22 The AMSC application relates to Phases 1 and 2 works only. Follow on Investment 2.6.23 The Exxon site Masterplan indicates the anticipated follow-on development after infrastructure investment. This development/investment is expected to come from the private sector, attracted by the improved access and reduced risk because of the intervention made by the public sector to mitigate market failure. These indirect deliverables are anticipated to include the following uses: Class 6 storage and distribution space - 25,000m2 Class 5 industrial space – 9,900m2 Class 4 business space – 7,860m2 Class 2 office space – 1,752m2 2.6.24 It is anticipated that private sector investment will be able to commence from 2026, estimating to deliver up to £43.8m of additional investment by 2037. This is driven by the strategic context set out above i.e. the need for employment land in West Dunbartonshire. Additionally, this is supported through ongoing discussions between the Council and potential site occupiers. The potential for securing pre-let development through these conversations, gives confidence to future site developers and can help to accelerate the build out of the site. Delivering against Areas of Need 2.6.25 Section 2.2 identified the strategic need for the project and highlighted that there was a requirement to bring forward more land in West Dunbartonshire in the medium to longer term to meet the economic development needs of the area. It also described the competitive advantage that the site offers in comparison to other locations both within West Dunbartonshire and more widely, particularly in relation to its strategic location on the transport network and access to the Glasgow City Region labour market. The site also offers strategic advantages through its deep- water frontage and its position as both a gateway to Loch Lomond and the Glasgow conurbation. Page 64
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 53 2.6.26 The project will deliver against these needs by creating the conditions that will unlock the potential of the site for development. Primarily this entails the provision of the necessary infrastructure to enable development to take place. 2.6.27 The Logic Model in Figure 2-12 demonstrates the linkages between the City Deal Project’s direct deliverables and the strategic need for the Project. Page 65
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 54 Figure 2-12 Relationship between Project’s direct Deliverables and Strategic Need Page 66
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 55 Evidence of Delivering Successful Projects 2.6.28 The Council has the skills, resources, capacity, and established capability to deliver the project. Over the last 5 to 10 years, the Council has designed and delivered projects similar in scope, scale, and complexity. This demonstrates experience and competency in the design and delivery of infrastructure and road building schemes and engaging with key stakeholders during the project lifecycle. The Council has extensive experience of working with external consulting engineers and designers to facilitate the delivery of large-scale infrastructure and public realm schemes. Appendix B provides a schedule of recently delivered Council infrastructure projects. Critical Success Factors 2.6.29 Critical Success Factors (CSFs) are a small number of criteria used at the long-list stage to make strategic choices about options. They support an assessment of how well an option is likely to succeed across the 5 dimensions of a business case and deliver SMART objectives. 2.6.30 The critical success factors are used to assess the Exxon project’s ability to deliver against its objectives; the ability to deliver value for money (i.e. a BCR of 1), ability to secure funding (affordability) and deliverability of the project. 2.6.31 The following are considered crucial to the success of the project: Strategic fit: The project is required to deliver on the Project Objectives, and align with national, regional and local policy objectives. The Exxon project is focussed on increasing the constrained supply of employment land in West Dunbartonshire, contributing to the economic prosperity of the wider City Region. Delivering Value for Money: The relative costs have been considered against their ability to deliver value for public money. This analysis is aligned with the expenditure versus the ability to hit each of the Exxon Project objectives. Affordability: To advance the project through the necessary design and construction phases, funding must be secured. The Exxon project is dependent on 86% of project costs being funded through the Glasgow City Region Deal Infrastructure Fund. Deliverability: This FBC presents project governance structures which align with business case guidance. The Exxon project governance structure has been tailored to meet the specific demands of the proposed scheme and demonstrates that the Council has appropriate mechanisms in place to ensure that the project can be delivered. 2.6.32 Investment to address access and development constraints present at the Exxon site will remove market failures constraining the area’s economic potential, enabling West Dunbartonshire to attract and retain new and existing businesses through establishment of a high quality, resilient employment land supply for the next 15 years. The success of the development will be measured against completion of the planned outputs within expected development timeframes. 2.7 Dependencies and Constraints KEY POINTS - A large proportion of the potential dependencies and constraints are linked to environmental issues on the site and can be mitigated through appropriate management and application of suitable interventions as the project is taken forward to implementation. Page 67
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 56 - The project is highly dependent on market demand following the infrastructure interventions and the ability for the Exxon site to attract a wide range of businesses and raise economic activity. - The project is dependent on and constrained by the budget required to develop the site. - Additional dependencies and constraints relate to ecological issues, heritage, flooding, contamination and remediation, land ownership, transport network impacts and agreement to proposals with key stakeholders. 2.7.1 Throughout the development of the project a series of potential dependencies and constraints have been identified. Most are linked to environmental issues on the site and can be mitigated through appropriate management and application of suitable interventions as the project is taken forward to implementation. Environmental Impact Assessment 2.7.2 An Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) was approved with the PPiP application. A summary of the EIA can be found in Appendix H Summary of Dependencies and Constraints 2.7.3 The table below summarises the internal and external dependencies and constraints that will influence the successful delivery of the project. Table 2-7 Dependencies and Constraints Dependencies/ Constraints Lead responsibility Internal Factors7 Environmental – preparation and agreement of Flood Risk, Ecology, Landscape Mitigation Management Plans. Programming and implementation of agreed species and habitat mitigation measures (pre and post road construction) to protect and mitigate impacts. Nature Scot license and monitoring requirements. Specialist ecological requirements pre, during and post construction. the Council City Deal Programme Team Programming – alignment of access road development and construction programme, particularly Network Rail requirements, with the wider development requirements. The Council City Deal Programme Team / Network Rail. Utilities - programming of service connection requirements. the Council City Deal Programme Team / Utility Companies Financing – site and tender costs must not exceed budget The Council City Deal Programme Team. External Factors8 7 Internal factors relate to dependencies that arise when a change in another project or variable has a direct consequence on this project (e.g. availability of resources or sequencing of other projects) 8 External factors include successful procurement of a contractor or private ownership of assets within the project footprint. Page 68
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 57 Dependencies/ Constraints Lead responsibility Land ownership and acquisition – In addition to concluding the Exxon land transfer once remediation is completed, there are 8 affected landowners including some known to be unwilling to make their land available if required. Acquisition terms to be agreed, purchases authorised and concluded. The Council City Deal Programme Team. Market Demand – Investment in enabling infrastructure aims to access the site and provide market-ready plots, de-risking the site and improving its development viability. This relies on a commercial and industrial property market willing to deliver the follow-on private sector investment needed. The Council City Deal Programme Team. Stakeholder lead in time (particularly Network Rail) may not be compatible with construction phase. The Council City Deal Programme Team. Site Remediation – Exxon is required to remediate the site before the Council formally acquires it. This is dependent on planning approval of the proposed remediation. Note: Expected completion December 2023. SEPA/the Council and Exxon 2.7.4 In summary, there are several dependencies on which the success of the project is reliant. Each of these has either been identified in the risk register and/or been considered in development of the consented Masterplan. Design work has fully considered these constraints and addressed them within the project budget. 2.8 Stakeholders 2.8.1 The delivery of the project is dependent upon several key stakeholders agreeing to the proposals being taken forward. This has been achieved with Network Rail agreeing the construction of a new underpass (west) and upgraded overbridge (east) road access to the site. 2.8.2 Transport Scotland has agreed amended junctions on the existing A82 Trunk Road. 2.8.3 Finally, grant of detailed planning permission must be achieved, including agreement and sign off with a range of other stakeholders during the planning and design process. Project Consultation 2.8.4 Throughout the project development to date, stakeholder engagement has been a key consideration as it is recognised that the cooperation and buy-in of a series of key stakeholders will be essential to the successful delivery of the project. An ongoing programme of stakeholder engagement is planned throughout the detailed design and implementation of the project to ensure stakeholders remain informed and committed to assisting in its delivery. 2.8.5 To date, all stakeholders, as noted below, have approved or commented on the Planning Permission in Principle and will be consulted on the detailed infrastructure planning application. Pre-application engagement has confirmed that all parties support the proposals. Transport Scotland (TS): TS commended the approach taken thus far and has agreed to the proposals. Network Rail (NR): Agreed to the proposals and has appointed a contractor led team to deliver the western underpass. Page 69
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 58 Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA): SEPA has approved a hydraulic modelling approach for the site, a watercourse survey programme and the proposed approach to Flood Risk Assessment incorporated in the EIA. SEPA has approved the Baseline Hydraulic Modelling Report and the proposals for flood risk mitigation. Nature Scot: has approved the proposals. Royal Society for Protection of Birds (RSPB): has approved the proposals. West of Scotland Archaeological Service: has approved the proposals. Historic Scotland: has approved the proposals. Scottish Water: has approved the proposals. Health & Safety Executive: consulted and commented on the EIA – no concerns. Inverclyde Council: has approved the proposals. Glasgow and Clyde Valley Green Network: has approved the proposals. 2.8.6 A record of the stakeholder engagement to date is provided in the table below. 2.8.7 In addition, consultations with adjacent landowners begun in November 2016 and have continued as the design proposals for the project have been developed throughout design and planning stages. Page 70
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 59 Table 2-8 Stakeholder Engagement Summary Stakeholder Group Contribution Benefit Dis-benefit Expectation/ Demand Engagement to date Local Authorities West Dunbartonshire Council Project Sponsor Remediate site and increased employment land supply. Bearing the risk of delivering the project using public sector money. West Dunbartonshire Council Project Sponsor Inverclyde Council Consultee in respect of the Inner Clyde Estuary SPA Remediated site on the banks of the Clyde EIA and Planning Application Consultee Consulted on EIA Scoping City Deal Bodies The Cabinet Project Coordination Benefits of increased employment opportunities across the City Region, leading the economic development of central Scotland. Interaction as required Regularly informed of progress through ongoing meetings and reports The Chief Executive’s Group Project Coordination Interaction as required Regularly informed of progress through ongoing meetings and reports Project Management Office (PMO) Project Coordination Interaction as required Regularly informed of progress through ongoing meetings and reports Financial Strategy Support Group Project Coordination Interaction as required WDC officer support Legal Support Group Project Coordination Interaction as required WDC officer support Procurement Support Group Project Coordination Interaction as required WDC officer support Lead Officers Support Group Project Coordination Interaction as required WDC officer support Page 71
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 60 Stakeholder Group Contribution Benefit Dis-benefit Expectation/ Demand Engagement to date Transport Support Group Project Coordination Interaction as required WDC officer support Economic Development Support Group Project Coordination Interaction as required WDC officer support Audit Support Group Project Coordination Interaction as required WDC officer support Other Public-Sector Bodies Scottish Environmental Protection Agency Flooding risk Remediated site, improving the environmental quality of the river and riverside. Temporary impact from construction works. Agreement and approval of approach to hydraulic modelling, flood risk assessment and the EIA EIA consultation meetings and exchanges of documentatio n to gain approvals to approach Nature Scot Wildlife protection Removal of harmful chemicals from the site. Green space incorporated into the development. Potential disruption of local wildlife. Agreement and approval of approach to ecological studies and the EIA EIA consultation meetings and exchanges of documentatio n to gain approvals to approach RSPB Wildlife protection Agreement and approval of approach to ecological studies and the EIA EIA consultation meetings and exchanges of documentatio n to gain approvals to approach Historic Scotland Listed buildings and ancient monuments protection Disruption of the landscape adjacent to Dunglass Castle. Agreement and approval of approach to archaeologica l studies and the EIA EIA consultation meetings West of Scotland Archaeologica l Service Listed buildings and ancient monuments protection Potential to unearth archaeologica l assets during construction. Agreement of approach to archaeologica l studies and the EIA EIA consultation meetings Health & Safety Executive Existing HSE Notification Zone Agreement of approach to the EIA EIA consultation meetings Page 72
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 61 Stakeholder Group Contribution Benefit Dis-benefit Expectation/ Demand Engagement to date Glasgow and Clyde Valley Green Network Access and sustainable transport Agreement of approach to the EIA EIA consultation meetings Scottish Enterprise Commercial marketing opportunities and business development support Additional commercial space for businesses to expand in or move to. Supporting infrastructure and new commercial space for growing Scottish businesses. Ongoing engagement through Economic Development team, regarding the available opportunity. Scottish Development International Commercial marketing opportunities . Additional commercial space to support inward investing companies. Supporting infrastructure and new commercial space for inward investing companies. Ongoing engagement through Economic Development team regarding potential inward investments Scottish Council for Development and Industry Commercial market opportunities and industry engagement support. Additional commercial space to support Scotland’s economic growth. Supporting infrastructure and new commercial space that can help to support Scotland’s economy. Ongoing engagement through Economic Development team regarding potential industry opportunities. Transport Bodies Transport Scotland Access to site and impacts on Trunk Road network Additional road network to support the A82 Sign off on proposed approach to provide access to the site. Agree Basis of Design Several consultation meetings and exchanges of documentatio n to gain approvals to approach Network Rail Access to site by crossing current live railway line Additional infrastructure works and staff time to support the development . Sign off on proposed approach to provide access to the site Several consultation meetings and exchanges of documentatio n to gain approvals to approach Community Groups, Users and Others Page 73
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 62 Stakeholder Group Contribution Benefit Dis-benefit Expectation/ Demand Engagement to date Investors/ Developers Investment into and development of commercial space Easily accessible, platformed site ready for construction. Shovel ready site to begin development Strategy being developed but will include Colleges, Chamber of Commerce, Scottish Enterprise, Skills Development Scotland and local community organisations, etc. Occupiers Commercial activity & employment opportunities . Easily accessible, platformed site ready for construction. Prime commercial space with access to a quality labour force. WDC Economic Development meetings with potential anchor tennats. Exxon Previous site owner Purchase of a derelict site and underutilised asset by the Council. Upfront remediation costs. Lead remediation of site and engage proactively on proposals for its future development Ongoing and regular liaison between WDC and Exxon has taken place during the development of the project Public Utilities Companies Public services for site occupiers Additional service requirements from site occupiers. Relocation and extension of the current network. Identify location of existing public utilities in vicinity and provide necessary extensions to service the occupiers of the site Utility companies have all provided copies of existing asset records. Third Party Land Owners Land owner Purchase of land presently underutilised. Disturbance from the construction works. Land required for site access Introductory contact made in November 2016 and ongoing. 2.8.8 Stakeholder conflicts will be managed appropriately as they arise, however, early stakeholder conversations have allowed stakeholder expectations and requirements to be effectively managed and resolved. Potential conflicts, their respective risk register code and how these will be managed are set out below: Page 74
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 63 Reaching an agreement on technical approaches with various stakeholders. (014) o In order to progress the development of the site servicing infrastructure, agreements will need to be reached with a variety of statutory bodies, including SEPA, Transport Scotland and Utility companies. Delays to decisions or agreements could extend the anticipated construction of infrastructure. Early engagement with these stakeholders has allowed the Capital Investment Team at West Dunbartonshire, to get ahead of any potential conflicts and resolve them through open dialogue. Regulatory approval for the overbridge or the underpass; provision of an underpass design; and possessions for construction of the underpass are delayed by Network Rail (048) o Network Rail has been commissioned to design and construct the underpass. The infrastructure works need to be incorporated into Network Rail’s construction schedule and passenger timetables. Delays to either the design or scheduling of this works would cause a delay in site access and thus construction of the additional site infrastructure, resulting in conflicts with other site contracts. The Council are working closely with Network Rail to ensure that there is no delay to cross-rail works and any problems are managed through the Councils project team. Different contractors require to be on site at the same time to ensure the programme is maintained (026) o The Council has commenced early engagement with all potential parties to coordinate respective work programmes for construction and remediation staging. The project team will ensure contracts reflect the needs of Exxon/the Council working on the site at the same time where necessary. 2.9 Risk 2.9.1 A series of potential risks that could affect the successful implementation of the project has been identified and set out in detail in the Risk Register attached as Appendix D . These risks can mainly be classified as relating to the following categories: Physical / assets Political Professional Financial Regulatory / legal Environmental Contractual 2.9.2 The risks identified in the register have appropriate mitigating actions against each of them. 2.9.3 Infrastructure delivery is dependent on several factors relating to the identified dependencies and constraints. After mitigation measures and control actions have been considered, the top risks to successful implementation of the project are: Regulatory approval for the bridge and the underpass by Network Rail (048) (External); Statutory approvals for development cannot be gained, additional requirements or are delayed (014) (Internal/External); Programme slippage incurs additional project costs (021) (Internal); Page 75
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 64 Different contractors require to be on site at the same time to ensure the programme is maintained (026) (Internal/External). Risk of not getting the additional City Deal funding and the need for the Council to increase borrowing to cover site costs. (008) (Internal) 2.9.4 Assuming these risks are mitigated, infrastructure interventions are anticipated to be delivered by 2024. 2.9.5 Following successful delivery of the infrastructure, market demand remains a risk to the project’s success (E2). Delivery of fully market ready sites and early and continuous commercial marketing of opportunities are vital to ensuring this risk is mitigated. This will include liaison with key bodies such as Scottish Development International and Scottish Enterprise. Risk to City Deal Programme 2.9.6 If the Exxon project is not delivered, or there is a slip to the programme of delivery, then there will be a reduction in the anticipated economic value generated by the investment programme (003). The Council has identified the risks to project delivery in the risk register and under the project dependencies and constraints. The Council will work closely with the PMO to ensure that expectations are managed in line with realistic project deliverables – further detail can be found in the Management Case. 2.10 Risk Allocation and Transfer 2.10.1 The Council has taken ownership of the majority of the identified risks as defined in the Risk Register. However, in some instances the ownership of risks is also shared with key stakeholders. 2.10.2 The Project Manager will take responsibility for overall risk management and mitigation throughout the project delivery process. However, some risks are affected by external influences and where this is the case the Council only has partial control over them. 2.10.3 The table below provides an outline of the currently identified risk categories and ownership. Page 76
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 65 Table 2-9 Risk Transfer Risk Identified Risk Transfer Kept within Member Authority Transfer to External Party Design and build Road & Infrastructure, Flood risk management (Craig Jardine); the Council – Legal (Alan Douglas) Commissioning Legal (Alan Douglas) Operation Project Management (Patricia Rowley) Demand Economic Impact (Gillian McNamara) Residual value Economic Impact (Gillian McNamara) Technology Project Management (Patricia Rowley) Regulation Legal (Alan Douglas) Contractor default Legal (Alan Douglas) Political Project Management (Patricia Rowley) Internal business Project Management (Patricia Rowley) Delay to remediation of contaminated land Exxon Delay to programme due to number of Governance levels - Board, Council, PMO, City Deal Cabinet Project Management (Patricia Rowley) Agreement on technical approach with key stakeholders (e.g. Transport Scotland, Network Rail, public utilities, SEPA, etc.) creates timescale delays Project Management (Patricia Rowley) Stakeholders Detailed design / site investigations reveal conditions that will significantly increase costs or affect project delivery Site Evaluation & Asset Management (Craig Jardine) Project Management (Patricia Rowley) Alternative sites are deemed more attractive for development reducing the attractiveness of former Exxon site Economic Impact (Gillian McNamara) Site fails to deliver the desired levels of economic activity and GVA forecast Economic Impact (Gillian McNamara) City Deal does not achieve target GVA levels throughout Glasgow City Region with associated financial impact City Deal Cabinet Insufficient funding due to complexity of site Project Management (Patricia Rowley) Necessary statutory approvals for development cannot be gained or are delayed Legal (Alan Douglas) Planning (Pamela Clifford) Excessive liabilities associated with contaminated land Legal (Alan Douglas) Delay to or unacceptable terms for transfer of ownership Legal (Alan Douglas) Page 77
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 66 Risk Identified Risk Transfer Kept within Member Authority Transfer to External Party of site from Exxon to West Dunbartonshire Council Third party parcels of land required for development cannot be acquired on acceptable terms Legal (Alan Douglas) Asset Management (Michelle Lynn) 2.10.4 The Risk Register will be kept under continuous review during the project development, detailed design and implementation. During this period, some risks may be dealt with and closed off from the Risk Register, new risks may be identified, or ownership of risks may be reallocated. The Risk Register will consequently be a live document and risk ownership could consequently change. However, it is anticipated that risks would remain allocated within a small group of bodies which would include: West Dunbartonshire Council Landowners Infrastructure providers – Transport Scotland, Network Rail, Utilities companies Environmental Agencies – SEPA, Historic Scotland, NatureScot Page 78
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 67 3 Economic Case - Options Appraisal 3.1 Introduction 3.1.1 Achieving additional and transformational change in West Dunbartonshire’s economy requires: identification of large-scale sites which provide an opportunity for their comprehensive development and scope for expansion; identification of the key sectors required to achieve it and their likely needs; and establishment of the infrastructure requirements associated with different options. 3.1.2 An assessment based on the objectives identified in Section 2.5 of the OBC considered the best way to provide the required step change in the volume and value of economic activity in West Dunbartonshire. This analysis holds true today. It considered possible locations for the size of investment required and consideration of those sectors which will best contribute to the objectives, particularly those presently performing well or other growth sectors. 3.1.3 The strategic, long listing assessment consisted of three parts: options for the location of a sizeable economic investment site (see Section 3.2 in the OBC and summary outcomes below); options for the use of the site (economic activity) (see Section 3.3 in the OBC and summary outcomes below); and options for access to the site (infrastructure requirements) (see Section 3.4 in the OBC and summary outcomes below). 3.1.4 A long list of options was drawn up for analysis, considering each option available to the Council. These options were then quantitatively and qualitatively assessed in line with HM Treasury Green Book Guidance, analysing each option against their ability to meet the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) outlined in the Strategic Case. 3.1.5 The sifted options i.e., the short list was then subjected to more detailed economic analysis. 3.2 Summary Outcomes for the Location of a Sizeable Economic Investment Site 3.2.1 The Exxon site is in single ownership albeit that other land is required for access. The 61- hectare site is subject to a range of environmental designations as well as flood risk and other constraints. These reduce the developable area, including for all roads and development plots, to some 19.10 hectares which would be the largest concentration of potential employment land in West Dunbartonshire. Should the constraints be addressed, a high-quality, well-located development site would be available in the short to medium term. The site is of the scale required to meet project objectives, with the potential to offer a broad range of development and employment opportunities in the medium to long term. City Deal funding offers the opportunity to address the site constraints in a comprehensive manner, while also enabling future requirements for industrial and business land to be addressed. 3.2.2 From the high-level options appraisal, the Exxon site is best placed to meet the project objectives. Page 79
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 68 3.3 Summary Outcomes for the Sectors of Opportunity 3.3.1 Analysis of West Dunbartonshire’s economic and sector profile indicated that there should be a focus on the following sectors for economic development should appropriate development opportunities be available: Food and drink (storage & distribution): developing advanced processes to enable West Dunbartonshire to maintain a role in the vanguard of sector development; Advanced manufacturing, storage and logistics: related to existing clusters of activity and expansion related to energy sector, defence and other requirements; and Office and professional services activity: developing from accessibility to Glasgow Airport and the strategic road network, the potential to develop a differentiated market proposition based on the area’s high environmental values (land and river) and the momentum generated by development in West Dunbartonshire’s Town Centres and elsewhere. 3.4 Summary Outcomes for Site Access 3.4.1 The A82 Trunk Road is the main arterial link through West Dunbartonshire linking to Glasgow in the east as well as Loch Lomond and beyond in the north. It also provides access to the Erskine Bridge which connects West Dunbartonshire with areas on the south bank of the River Clyde via the M8 and strategic road network. The Exxon site is strategically located adjacent to the A82. The OBC presented the options appraisal for providing access to the Exxon site and summarised the Concept Design which existed at that time, including the preferred layouts for access junctions to the east and west of the site. 3.4.2 Subsequent work developed the Concept Design to a Preliminary Design which was, along with the overarching Masterplan, granted Planning Permission in Principle (PPiP) in January 2021. 3.4.3 Further design evolution, including consultation with Transport Scotland, Network Rail, SEPA, Sustrans and affected landowners together with feedback from the public consultation on the Masterplan has resulted in final design solutions being agreed and now subject to the detailed planning application. 3.5 Long List – Scope, Solution, Delivery & Funding 3.5.1 See the OBC for a detailed description of the long list scoping exercise which still holds true. 3.6 Site Development Options - Long List 3.6.1 The long list of site development options consists of infrastructure interventions for access and site development. It is assumed that under each of the options described below, apart from the counterfactual, the site is remediated by Exxon and that development platforms would ultimately be provided to ensure any future development satisfies SEPA’s requirement for flood risk and drainage. 3.6.2 Note, only Option 1, Option 4, and Option 5 are presented in the FBC. Further detail on the other options considered can be found in the OBC. Option 1 – Counterfactual 3.6.3 Under the counterfactual situation, it is anticipated that the Exxon site will not be developed within the 25-year analysis period. The site’s infrastructure constraints are a disincentive for private sector investment in the site i.e., the market failure. Under the counterfactual scenario the site is likely to remain disused brownfield land. The anticipated demand for employment Page 80
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 69 land in West Dunbartonshire post 2022 will not be able to be satisfied by this site and will not be satisfied elsewhere in the area, thus constraining the development and subsequently the employment opportunities in West Dunbartonshire. This will most likely lead to a widening of the job’s deficit in West Dunbartonshire with an associated pressure on neighbouring areas as residents either commute to take up the employment opportunities or residents move away from West Dunbartonshire to other areas. Option 4 – Full Intervention with Two Access Junctions and Spine Road 3.6.4 This Option consists of the preferred eastern and western access junctions and a linking spine road providing full access to the site. This option would allow for the full development of the Exxon site but with the infrastructure required to create development platforms and address flood risk and drainage requirements on the site needing to be met by future occupiers of the site. The infrastructure interventions allow for a continuous spine road to be constructed to the south of the A82. 3.6.5 SEPA has expressed that they would require development areas on the site to be raised out of the flood plain before any development were to take place. The additional development costs of constructing raised platforms would reduce the viability of the site to commercial property developers and as such, could delay the full build out of the site by up to 10 years. Option 5 – Full Intervention plus Development Platforms 3.6.6 Option 5 includes the infrastructure delivered under Option 4 plus additional site platforming that would enable the site to be ready for developers to construct commercial and industrial buildings. In doing so, the intervention mitigates the risk of site flooding, increases the viability of the site and is expected to stimulate development at an accelerated rate in comparison to that of Option 4. 3.7 Long-list Appraisal Performance against Project Objectives 3.7.1 The long list of options above has been subject to a desk-based appraisal against the Project Objectives (see Table 3-1 below). This analysis has informed how well each of the long list of options performs against the Strategic Fit Critical Success Factors. Table 3-1 Option scoring against Project Objectives Objective/Option 1 4 5 Objective One: Increase the range of commercial and industrial activity in the area. X √√√ √√√ Objective Two: Raise levels of economic activity, providing a platform for significant employment and job opportunities for those with differing levels of qualifications and skills. X √√ √√√ Objective Three: Create additional and sustainable employment opportunities for West Dunbartonshire communities, increasing the proportion of people who live and work in the area. X √√√ √√√ Performance against Critical Success Factors 3.7.2 The performance of each long-list option against the Critical Success Factors set out in the strategic case has been qualitatively assessed below. Page 81
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 70 Option 1 – Counterfactual 3.7.3 Option 1 is carried forward to the short list to represent the deadweight. Option 4 – Full Access Infrastructure 3.7.4 Option 4 is carried forward to the short list due to the scale of anticipated development it potentially stimulates, albeit at a slower rate than if development platforms were provided. The combination of each preferred access will open the required employment land for the Council, making for a strong strategic fit. Site platforming in this option would be the responsibility of the private sector. Given the site constraints, it is likely that this would have the effect of significantly delaying development and occupation of the employment land. Option 5 – Comprehensive Infrastructure and Site Platforming 3.7.5 Option 5 is carried forward to the short list because the full intervention is anticipated to stimulate an accelerated rate of development due to the removal of financial risks to developers. 3.7.6 This analysis has informed a quantitative scoring of each option against the Critical Success Factors of the project. The results of this analysis are presented in Table 3-2 below, with Option 5 scoring the highest. Table 3-2 Option Scoring against Critical Success Factors CSF/Option 1 4 5 Strategic Fit 0 9 10 Deliverability 10 8 8 Affordability 10 8 7 Value for Money 0 8 9 Score 20 33 34 Rank 5 2 1 3.8 Resulting Short List 3.8.1 The resulting short list of options is: Option 1 - Counterfactual Option 4 - Full Access Infrastructure Option 5 - Full Access Infrastructure plus Site Platforming 3.9 Benefits 3.9.1 The benefits generated by the project are summarised in the Benefits Realisation Profile attached as Appendix E . The benefits are expected to fall into the following categories: Infrastructure; Transport; Employment; Environmental; Business; Financial. Page 82
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 71 3.9.2 In determining benefits, it is assumed that major infrastructure works will start on site in Q4 2023 with work completed in 2026 when plots will be available for development and occupation. 3.9.3 The site will then be developed over a 15-year period with related economic benefits delivered in tandem. Full benefit realisation for employment benefits, business benefits and financial benefits is therefore forecast over this period. This time period is believed to be realistic and consistent with other similar regeneration and development projects taken forward over recent decades including the redevelopment of Strathclyde Business Park, Clyde Gateway, the Glasgow Harbour regeneration project near Partick and the Lomondgate mixed use development on the north-western edge of Dumbarton. 3.9.4 The benefits are closely linked to the project objectives which put economic growth and activity at the fore. They also have a strong environmental and regeneration component to them which contributes to wider policy objectives at national, regional, and local levels. 3.9.5 All the benefits can be measured through the project implementation process or through subsequent monitoring and evaluation of the project’s economic impacts. Further information about how monitoring and evaluation will be undertaken is provided in Chapter 7. 3.9.6 Some potential negative effects have been recognised in the table below. Primarily these relate to impacts on sensitive environmental sites and the potential displacement of economic activity from elsewhere in West Dunbartonshire or the Glasgow City Region. Project design and development is seeking to minimise or avoid these impacts wherever possible. Table 3-3 Qualitative Disbenefits Profile Disbenefit Description Options Disruption to residents and businesses during construction This is likely to be a temporary dis-benefit and will be managed with careful stakeholder engagement prior to and during the construction period. This will be complemented by detailed construction management plans (a requirement of contractors), a Communications Plan and direct engagement to raise awareness and pick up issues for future learning Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Loss of public space to development A loss of public spaces may occur in some instances as areas of the site begin to be developed. Intervention options mitigate this through increased space for pedestrians and cyclists and by affording more direct access to enhanced areas of public space on the waterfront. Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Traffic disruption: Conflict between motor vehicles (public and private) and pedestrians and cyclists. A Communications Plan will ensure all parties are aware of plans and project objectives. Design will also be based on evidence i.e. traffic modelling therefore removal of vehicle traffic should be manageable in traffic management terms. Programming of works to avoid issues around works in close proximity, and utilisation of traffic management specialists within the design team. Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Increased freight Despite enhanced infrastructure surrounding and servicing the site, freight traffic as a result of distribution occupiers on the Option 1 Page 83
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 72 Disbenefit Description Options movement along the A82 site, will inevitably increase. An increase in this particular type of traffic, brings associated traffic accident risks. Option 4 Option 5 Page 84
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 73 4 Economic Case – Short List Analysis 4.1 Introduction 4.1.1 This section provides an economic appraisal of the investment sought from this FBC. The economic impact of the project at a local authority, Glasgow City Region and national level is provided followed by a value for money assessment consistent with HM Treasury Green Book Guidance9. A sensitivity analysis examines the effect of changing key variables in the economic model. 4.1.2 The model has been prepared to assess the level of potential employment and GVA created by the project under each of the short-listed options over a period of 25 years. Where applicable, costs and benefits of the project have been discounted in line with best practice guidance at a rate of 3.5% a year to reflect the 25-year analysis period (2019 – 2044). The approach is consistent with the principles outlined in HM Treasury’s Green Book10, and the Additionality & Economic Impact Assessment Guidance Note - Scottish Enterprise. The model has assessed: Construction effects: employment and GVA11 from the infrastructure construction phase of the project and the expected construction of follow on development sites; Operational effects: employment and GVA from the operational phases of development plots facilitated or accelerated by the project. 4.1.3 The impacts are detailed at three spatial levels: West Dunbartonshire; City Region and; Scotland. 4.1.4 Costs and benefits (GVA) are rounded to the nearest £100,000, while employment is rounded to the nearest 5 jobs. Cost 4.1.5 Table 4-1 below presents the non-discounted and discounted (3.5%) capital cost of delivering each option. Given the final stages that the project is now in, Optimism Bias (OB) has been reduced to 0%. However, contingency costs have been included (c.5% for both options). Table 4-1 Public Capital Costs Inc OB (£m, 2023 prices) Non-Discounted Discounted Option 4 33.6 33.6 Option 5 40.3 40.3 9 HM Treasury Green Book Guidance 2022 10 HM Treasury Green Book Guidance 2022 11 Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area. Page 85
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 74 Operating and Maintenance Costs 4.1.6 The Option 4 and 5 proposals include 1.95km of new spine road and 1.32km of upgraded existing public road (A814). All operating and maintenance costs will be attributed directly to the ongoing management of the road network which will require to be accommodated by West Dunbartonshire Council. Capital and maintenance costs are contained within Chapter 6 – Financial Case. 4.1.7 To assess the impact of each intervention over a 25-year period, the total non-discounted capital expenditure of each intervention is divided by what it takes to support one construction worker for one year - known as the turnover per employee which is presented separately for infrastructure and development construction employees in the table below. Table 4-2 Turnover Per Construction Employee (2022) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Infrastructure Construction Phase £120,618 £161,754 £174,436 Note: Turnover per construction employee has changed significantly since the OBC was completed. For example, the City Region Infrastructure Construction Turnover per Construction Employee has increase from £73,788 to £161,754 (119%). This can be explained by the fact that construction in Scotland has come back strongly from COVID-19, needing 26,250 extra jobs to be created by 202513. The Scottish sector is expected to grow by an annual average rate of 4.1% and recovering to pre-pandemic growth levels by 2023 according to a new study from the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB). Major projects such as wind farms, including the Firth of Forth; the Edinburgh Tram extension; a £3.6bn Scottish water investment programme; and the first Moray Firth turbines are driving strong annual average output growth in infrastructure (4.7%) between the end of 2020 and 2025. Also expected to do well is private housing (6.3%). While this FBC notes a lager capital expenditure, the result of a higher turnover per construction employee will result in a lower number of gross construction jobs. Additionality Assumptions (Construction) 4.1.8 To comply with best practice, anticipated construction and operational effects have been adjusted for additionality factors. Appropriate economic appraisal guidance and understanding of the local area’s socio-economic characteristics has been used to estimate values for leakage, displacement, and multipliers as noted below. Operational Additionality tables can be found in Appendix G Deadweight – the proportion of benefits that would have happened regardless of intervention. Note, Option 1 represents this counterfactual position. Leakage - the proportion of employment opportunities accessed by people living outside the local area. 12 Scottish Government Turnover and GVA Tables – Accessed 2018 13 Available at: https://www.citb.co.uk/about-citb/news-events-and-blogs/scotland-construction-sector-to-grow-41- with-26-250-extra-jobs-needed-to-meet-demand/ Page 86
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 75 Displacement – the proportion of the project’s benefits accounted for by a reduction in benefits elsewhere. Multipliers – to estimate further economic activity associated with additional income and supplier purchases (i.e. indirect and induced expenditure). Table 4-3 Additionality Assumptions (Construction) Additionality Factor West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Leakage 40% (West Dunbartonshire has some 1,250 construction employees; therefore, it is assumed that just under half of construction workers will come from within the local authority area) 25% (More than one in three construction workers in Scotland are based in the Clyde Valley area suggesting that leakage of construction jobs outside Clyde Valley is likely to be limited) 10% (A proportion of construction jobs could be absorbed outside Scotland due to best value procurement or specialist skills requirements) Displacement 10% (In light of the high level of construction labour available in West Dunbartonshire, the level of displacement is assumed to be low) 30% (The infrastructure work and development construction may involve construction workers forgoing other construction activities at a regional level) 45% (Due to the attraction of other opportunities, increased competition at Scotland level it is likely to involve construction workers forgoing other construction activities) Multiplier 1.41 (60% of City Region multiplier) 1.68 (80% of national multiplier) 1.85 (Type II Scottish multiplier for the construction industry) Gross Direct Infrastructure Construction Jobs 4.1.9 Gross infrastructure construction employment by option is shown below. Table 4-4 Gross Infrastructure Construction Jobs Capital Expenditure Employment Option 4 305 Option 5 365 Net Direct Infrastructure Construction Employment 4.1.10 Net direct infrastructure employment supported by each intervention is calculated by applying the construction additionally factors noted above. The results are as shown in Table 4-5 below. Table 4-5 Net Direct Infrastructure Construction Jobs Page 87
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 76 West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 230 265 275 Option 5 275 320 330 Total Infrastructure Construction GVA 4.1.11 GVA generated by the infrastructure construction employment is calculated by multiplying the net direct employment in the table above, by the GVA per infrastructure construction worker below to give the total infrastructure construction GVA for each option. Table 4-6 GVA per Infrastructure Construction Employee (2022) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Infrastructure Construction (£) 61,489 62,637 66,884 Development Construction (£) 44,389 70,609 56,171 Note: GVA per Infrastructure Construction Employee has declined since the completion of the OBC. For example, GVA per Infrastructure Construction Employee in the City Region has decreased from £73,788 to £62,637 (15%). This likely a reflection of the productivity of the industry throughout COVID and lack of sufficient construction labour. The decline will lead to a lower construction GVA from OBC to FBC. 4.1.12 The Gross Construction GVA from Infrastructure for each option is shown below. Table 4-7 Gross Direct Infrastructure Construction Nominal GVA (£m) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 13.5 15.9 17.6 Option 5 16.2 19.1 21.2 4.1.13 Gross GVA is discounted at 3.5% over the 25-year analysis period to derive the net direct GVA generated by the supported infrastructure construction employment. Table 4-8 Net Direct Infrastructure Construction Discounted GVA (£m) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 12.3 14.5 16.0 Option 5 14.8 17.4 19.2 Development Construction 4.1.14 The infrastructure construction phase of the project can only deliver temporary outcomes. The lasting economic impacts from this project will stem from the development of mainly commercial/industrial sites enabled or accelerated by the project. 14 Scottish Government Industry Tables. Page 88
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 77 4.1.15 A schedule of plots facilitated by the project have been identified. A breakdown of the plots by anticipated use can be found in the table below. This is presented as the Gross External Area (GEA) used to calculate development construction costs (private sector investment). 4.1.16 The GEA of each plot is multiplied by the average build cost for each use in West Dunbartonshire. This is derived from the Build Cost Information Service (BCIS), October 2022. Table 4-9 Development Plots (GEA m2) Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 BCIS Class 2 Financial and Professional Services - 1,752 1,752 £2,411 Class 4 Business - 7,860 7,860 £2,411 Class 5 General Industry - 9,900 9,900 £1,284 Class 6 Distribution - 25,000 25,000 £933 Total - 44,512 44,512 4.1.17 Note that the development levels anticipated under Options 4 and 5 are the same. However, in the absence of a comprehensive approach to platforming, private sector investment under Option 4 is expected to come at a lower rate as shown in the table below. Table 4-10 Total Private Sector Investment (£m) Discounted Option 4 30.1 Option 5 43.8 4.1.18 The number of Gross Development Construction jobs shown below is calculated by dividing the non-discounted private sector investment, by the average turnover per development construction employee. Table 4-11 Gross Development Construction Jobs Gross Jobs Option 4 660 Option 5 660 4.1.19 Construction additionality factors are applied to the gross development construction employment to derive the net direct employment at each spatial area as shown below. Page 89
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 78 Table 4-12 Net Direct Construction Jobs West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 500 575 595 Option 5 500 575 595 4.1.20 The anticipated GVA generated by the net direct development construction jobs is presented below. Table 4-13 Gross Development Contraction GVA (£m) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 22.1 40.6 33.5 Option 5 22.1 40.6 33.5 4.1.21 Gross GVA is discounted at 3.5% over the 25-year analysis period to derive the net direct GVA generated by the supported development construction employment as shown below. Table 4-14 Net Direct Development Construction GVA (£m) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 11.2 20.6 17.0 Option 5 16.3 30.0 24.8 Operational Impact Assessment 4.1.22 The long-term impact of each intervention is calculated from the operational aspects of each of the anticipated development plots. To reflect the gradual occupation of each site, a 1-year occupation lag (following completion) has been assumed. 4.1.23 To measure this impact, employment densities have been applied to enabled development floorspace to generate employment outputs. Consistent with the methodology set out in the HCA Employment Densities Guide, Net Internal Area (NIA) has been used to estimate operational employment were stated. The GEA of development plots associated with each option presented above has been converted with reference to the use class of each. These parameters are presented in full in Appendix G 4.1.24 A schedule of enabled development floorspace is included at Table 4-15 with the employment density assumptions for different uses. Gross operational jobs are then presented below. Page 90
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 79 Table 4-15 Development Plots (areas used for employment calculation) Development Plots Employment Densities Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 FTE/sqm Class 2 Financial and Professional Services (NIA) - 1,415 1,415 15 Class 4 Business (NIA) - 6,347 6,347 12 Class 5 General Industry (GIA) - 8,910 8,910 50 Class 6 Distribution (GEA) - 25,000 25,000 77 Total - 41,672 41,672 Table 4-16 Gross Operational Jobs Gross Jobs Option 4 980 Option 5 980 4.1.25 Additionality factors are applied to the gross employment to reflect the leakage, displacement and industry multipliers used at each geography to calculate the net operational jobs shown in the table below. These factors are presented in Appendix F . Note; the deadweight is Option 1, the Counterfactual. Table 4-17 Net Direct Operational Jobs West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 915 970 890 Option 5 915 970 890 4.1.26 Net direct operational employment is multiplied by the GVA per head factors found in Appendix F to derive the Gross Operational GVA shown below. Table 4-18 Gross Direct Operational Nominal GVA (£m) Gross Operational GVA (£m) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 217.6 277.2 210.7 Option 5 632.5 848.3 622.3 4.1.27 Gross GVA is discounted at 3.5% over the 25-year analysis period to derive the net direct GVA generated by the supported operational employment. The results are shown in below. Page 91
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 80 Table 4-19 Discounted Net Direct Operational GVA (£m) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 101.0 128.3 97.7 Option 5 355.4 473.4 348.9 Total GVA Impact 4.1.28 Total (Gross and Net) GVA impact is calculated by adding the GVA derived from infrastructure and development construction, plus the operational GVA. The results are presented below. Table 4-20 Total Gross Direct GVA (£m) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 253.2 333.7 261.8 Option 5 670.8 908.0 677.0 4.1.29 The resulting total net direct discounted GVA is shown below. Table 4-21 Total Net Direct Discounted GVA (£m) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 124.5 163.5 130.7 Option 5 386.5 520.8 392.9 4.1.30 Option 1, the counterfactual representing the deadweight, is deducted from each option to determine the additional economic benefit stimulated by each intervention. Table 4-22 Additional NPV GVA (£m) West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Option 4 124.5 163.5 130.7 Option 5 386.5 520.8 392.9 4.1.31 It is anticipated that Option 5, full intervention, would stimulate up to £520m in additional GVA for the City Region economy by 2047 whilst Option 4 would generate £163m. 4.2 Cost Benefit Analysis 4.2.1 The following section presents a cost benefit analysis of each option, determining each intervention’s Value for Money (VfM). The first analysis shown below, cost per job, shows the net operational jobs15 against each option cost. Table 4-23 Cost Per Job (City Region) 15 As per HCA guidance, construction jobs are not counted in this analysis due to their temporary and transient nature. Page 92
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 81 Cost (£m) Additional Jobs Cost Per Job (£) Option 4 36.91 970 38,053 Option 5 48.40 970 45,696 Value for Money – Benefit Cost Ratios 4.2.2 Value for money is determined by the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR). Net additional GVA is divided by the cost of each intervention. A BCR of greater than one indicates good value for money e.g., a BCR of 2.0 means a £2 return in GVA for every £1 of money invested (Public or Public and Private). The results are provided below. Table 4-24 Value for Money City Region Present Value Costs (Capital and Revenue) Present Value GVA BCR Public Sector Only Option 1 - - - Present Value Net Additional GVA Option 4 33.6 163.5 4.9 Option 5 40.3 520.8 12.9 Public and Private Sector Option 1 - - - Present Value Net Additional GVA Option 4 63.7 163.5 2.6 Option 5 84.1 520.8 6.2 4.2.3 The results in Table 4-24 show that Option 5 is estimated to generate a Public Sector BCR of 12.9 and a Public and Private Sector BCR of 6.2, indicating a good return for the investment. Sensitivity Analysis 4.2.4 The Preferred Option has been subjected to a sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of the results against a rise in the cost of the project and unfavourable economic conditions, post intervention. 4.2.5 The first analysis, switching value, increases the cost of the project to a point that would generate a BCR of less than one, indicating poor value for money. The results are presented below. Page 93
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 82 Table 4-25 Switching Value Analysis City Region Present Value Costs (Capital and Revenue) Present Value GVA BCR Public Sector Only Option 1 - - - Present Value Net Additional GVA Option 4 33.6 163.5 4.9 Option 5 534.7 520.8 1.0 Public and Private Sector Option 1 - - - Present Value Net Additional GVA Option 4 63.7 163.5 2.6 Option 5 578.5 520.8 0.9 4.2.6 The switching value analysis indicates that the cost of the preferred intervention would have to increase by 1,227% to derive a BCR of less than one. 4.2.7 Further sensitivity analysis presented below shows that the additional GVA would need to decrease by 85.5% to generate a BCR of less than 1. Table 4-26 Sensitivity Testing City Region Present Value Costs (Capital and Revenue) Present Value GVA BCR Public Sector Only Option 1 - - - Present Value Net Additional GVA Option 4 33.6 23.7 0.7 Option 5 40.3 75.5 1.9 Public and Private Sector Option 1 - - - Present Value Net Additional GVA Option 4 63.7 23.7 0.4 Option 5 84.1 75.5 0.9 Page 94
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 83 4.3 Confirmation of the ResultsThe results for the Preferred Option are presented below. Table 4-27 Confirmation of the Preferred Option Preferred Option Results (Option 5) (City Region) (Net Additional) 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Cumulative discounted Public-Sector Investment (£m) 8.9 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3 Infrastructure Cumulative gross jobs - 365 365 365 365 365 Cumulative net jobs - 320 320 320 320 320 GVA (£m) - 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 Development Construction Cumulative net direct private sector investment (£m) - Option 5 - 9.7 37.9 43.8 43.8 43.8 Cumulative net direct private sector investment (£m) - Option 1 - - - - - - Cumulative net additional private sector investment (£m) - 9.70 37.90 43.80 43.80 43.80 Cumulative gross direct enabled jobs - Option 5 - 135 560 660 660 660 Cumulative gross direct enabled jobs - Option 1 - - - - - - Cumulative net additional gross enabled jobs - 135 560 660 660 660 Cumulative net direct enabled jobs - Option 5 - 115 490 575 575 575 Cumulative net direct enabled jobs - Option 1 - - - - - - Cumulative net additional net jobs - 115 490 575 575 575 Cumulative net direct GVA (£m) - Option 5 - 6.7 26.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 Page 95
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 84 Preferred Option Results (Option 5) (City Region) (Net Additional) 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Cumulative net direct GVA (£m) - Option 1 - - - - - - Cumulative net additional GVA (£m) - 6.70 26.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 Operation Cumulative gross direct enabled jobs - Option 5 - - 780 980 980 980 Cumulative gross direct enabled jobs - Option 1 - - - - - - Cumulative net additional gross enabled jobs - - 780 980 980 980 Cumulative net direct enabled jobs - Option 5 - - 745 970 970 970 Cumulative net direct enabled jobs - Option 1 - - - - - - Cumulative net additional net jobs - - 745 970 970 970 Cumulative net direct GVA (£m) - Option 5 - - 84.3 241.2 379.0 473.4 Cumulative net direct GVA (£m) - Option 1 - - - - - - Cumulative net additional GVA (£m) - - 84.3 241.2 379.0 473.4 Total net NPV GVA (£m) Option 5 - 24.1 127.7 288.6 426.4 520.8 Total net NPV GVA (£m) Option 1 - - - - - - Total net additional NPV GVA (£m) - 24.1 127.7 288.6 426.4 520.8 4.4 Value for Money – Wider Impacts 4.4.1 Addressing market failure of the Exxon site will result in qualitative beneficial outcomes, which while not quantified, play an important role in capturing the full extent of the socio-economic impact of the options. The table below summarises the anticipated qualitative benefits and the likely magnitude of scale under each option based on a RAG scoring system (i.e. red = no or minimal impact; amber = moderate impact; green = considerable impact). Table 4-28 Qualitative Benefits Page 96
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 85 Qualitative Benefit Description Options Land value uplift Land value is expected to increase because of improved accessibility to the site. The waterfront area presently seen as neglected, stands to benefit most from environmental improvements carried out on the site. The improved road infrastructure is likely to have positive effects on the value of neighboring land. Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Improved connectivity Development of new spine road to the south of the A82 will help to support traffic flows in the event of a closure along the section to the north of the Exxon site. This will have unquantified knock on benefits to businesses, residents and visitors using the route. Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Enhanced socio-economic mix (Distributional impacts) Anticipated growth in employment opportunities through the development of the currently vacant/derelict site will help reduce unemployment across West Dunbartonshire and the wider City Region. Improved connectivity will promote access to employment opportunities. Development of new high quality modern facilities within the project area will help attract professional and other groups of workers who may otherwise have chosen to live elsewhere. Progress in doing so will be dependent on approach adopted by landowners and related planning policies. Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Enhanced quality of life Improvements to the active travel routes through the site and delivery of green space in conjunction with the site is likely to result in an enhanced quality of life for both residents and future employees on the site. Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Value for Money - Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) Impacts 4.4.2 As part of the FBC, it is important to demonstrate value for money for proposed investment in transport infrastructure. The project is a development project where the provision of suitable access arrangements is dependent on a wide range of physical constraints. The design work undertaken has ensured that the optimum design solution has been prepared. TEE impacts have been summarised from examination of traffic modelling results. 4.4.3 To provide an appropriate level of information in the FBC, a summary of the assessments which led to the recommendations for the design has been provided below. A high level, qualitative Page 97
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 86 discussion has been provided which documents key elements which should be considered within a TEE appraisal and illustrates where benefits and dis-benefits may be anticipated. 4.4.4 Given the constraints on providing access to the development site, it is considered that a high- level qualitative assessment of TEE impacts is sufficient. To date, consideration has been given to the potential impact of the Project on the following aspects: Journey Time Savings / Increases Journey Time Reliability Fuel / Tax Farebox Revenue Vehicle Operating Costs Operating & Maintenance Costs Grant & Subsidy Payments Potential demand and usage. 4.4.5 The scope of these impacts is summarised below. Journey Time Savings / Increases 4.4.6 The development of the site will result in additional traffic accessing the A82/A814 road network via junctions at the east and west ends of the site. The development of the junction arrangements has carefully considered the capacity at these junctions and the proposals have been developed based on providing at least no net detriment to traffic on the existing road network. Increased capacity and rationalised junctions are currently proposed. Transport Scotland has indicated its support for the junction and network improvements proposed. Journey Time Reliability 4.4.7 The diversion route in the event of a closure of the A82 between the A82/A814 Dunglass Junction and the A82/A814 Dumbuck junction is via neighbouring adjacent local authorities and is some 29 miles or thereby. The provision of a convenient alternative route will eliminate the necessity for this diversionary route, secure journey time reliability for public transport and result in a commensurate reduction in associated costs and emissions. 4.4.8 The provision of an alternative route will significantly improve the “Blue Light” access to the Golden Jubilee and Queen Elizabeth hospitals as journey times to these facilities can be significantly increased if there are issues such as those noted above. Fuel / Tax 4.4.9 At this stage, we do not anticipate the proposed intervention to encourage significant modal shift. As such, there will be no notable changes in fuel consumption from private vehicles and no associated loss of income to HM Treasury from tax on fuel sales. Farebox Revenue 4.4.10 There are unlikely to be any significant changes to public transport provision because of the City Deal project itself. Impacts will therefore be negligible. Vehicle Operating Costs 4.4.11 Changes in vehicle operating costs will be marginal because of the City Deal project although there may be impacts as a result of resulting development proposals. Page 98
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 87 Grant & Subsidy Payments 4.4.12 The project concerns construction of a new spine road and does not include any ongoing grant or subsidy costs necessary to support public transport infrastructure. We have assumed that all capital expenditure will be provided by Glasgow City Region City Deal and Council funding with no ongoing requirement for grant and subsidy payments. Potential Demand and Usage 4.4.13 Although the site could physically accommodate greater levels of development, the Masterplanning of the site has restricted development to a quantum that will result in no more than 1000 peak hour trips to/from the development site. It is therefore expected that resulting development traffic flows can be accommodated on the road network with no net detriment. Distributional/ Equity Factors 4.4.14 Public agencies will continue to support initiatives to address local and strategic employment deficits. This project is entirely consistent with these initiatives, and will complement skills development and other programmes, creating an opportunity to achieve a major shift in the accessibility of jobs and opportunities. 4.4.15 Distributional/ Equity Factors have informed the selection of the Preferred Option, the Council working with a variety of stakeholders and partner organisations, will seek to maximise the distributional advantages and effects this option offers by ensuring the opportunities are open to everyone. Economic Risks 4.4.16 The main economic risks to the project and actions to mitigate those risks are shown below. Table 4-29 Qualitative Benefits Risk No. Risk Description Mitigation Action 001 Alternative sites are deemed more attractive for development reducing the attractiveness of former Exxon site Option appraisal has identified capacity for and attractiveness of former Exxon site as other local development sites are expected to be fully developed over next 10 years 003 Insufficient market demand to deliver the desired levels of economic activity and GVA forecast Ensure fully market ready site is delivered through the project and early and continuous commercial marketing of opportunities will be undertaken including liaison with key bodies including SDI and SE. 002 City Deal does not achieve target GVA levels throughout City Region with associated financial impact Work closely with other City Deal partners to deliver projects successfully. Page 99
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 88 5 Commercial Case 5.1 Introduction 5.1.1 This Chapter sets out the commercial case for delivery of the project. It documents the involvement of other parties and identifies the key challenges and risks. 5.1.2 No private sector funding is required to deliver the project. 5.1.3 Where the Council is required to acquire third party land, payment will be made from Council funds through direct transfer. 5.2 Delivery Specification 5.2.1 The Council is responsible for delivering the infrastructure detailed in the project description. The success of the project is dependent on the effective delivery of this infrastructure and the follow-on commercial elements (commercial and industrial buildings) that will subsequently drive the project benefits. 5.2.2 Close consultation and programme coordination with key public and private sector stakeholders will be carried out to ensure the project is delivered without conflict with other operations. 5.2.3 A Basis of Design document was developed for the project in November 2016 and subsequently updated as the Detailed Design has been developed. Its purpose is to define strategic infrastructure works required for the site and be the approved source of input data for the project team. It defines the criteria to be used for the design of each element of the works as follows: 5.2.4 Key stakeholders with an interest in the infrastructure design, particularly Network Rail, Transport Scotland, Scottish Water and SEPA are continuously being engaged in relation to their requirements. In the case of Network Rail this is related to the bridging of the railway line whilst Transport Scotland is concerned with the connections to the Trunk Road network. Scottish Water have interest in the site drainage and SEPA in the flood risk mitigation. 5.2.5 SEPA, NatureScot, RSPB and other stakeholders will continue to influence the development of the project and the environmental mitigation measures associated with the infrastructure. 5.2.6 Within the Council, the delivery specification is being determined in accordance with the requirements of various services involved in the project, including: 5.2.7 The Detailed Planning Application is scheduled to be submitted in June 2023 and the Conditions which will be attached to its approval will form the basis of the delivery specification for construction. Project Delivery - Direct Deliverables 5.2.8 The project will be delivered by the Council through its Capital Projects Team which will have overall project management responsibility for all elements of the project. 5.2.9 The infrastructure created or upgraded by the project will be adopted as public assets on completion, including the new spine road infrastructure with associated footways, cycleways, lighting, greenspace and plot access junctions and links to existing public roads infrastructure. 5.2.10 Construction of all project elements will be procured and managed by the Council. The works comprising this project will be separated into distinct works contracts, in recognition of the Page 100
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 89 different specialisms and complexity requirements of each element. Network Rail will deliver the Western Underbridge under contract to the Council. 5.2.11 It is anticipated that the works will be divided into several packages including those for roads, bridges, utilities, flood mitigation and drainage, greenspace and public realm and Balfour Beatty has been appointed under the Scape Procure Scotland Framework to undertake the works subject to all approvals and design details being agreed. 5.2.12 The project is expected to be delivered in the period from 2023 to 2026 with plots available for development thereafter. Project Delivery – Indirect Deliverables 5.2.13 The project will support the development of industrial and business land. City Deal Infrastructure Investment will enable the realisation of existing private sector development interest by addressing the market failure identified and will act as a catalyst for further private sector investment in commercial development. 5.2.14 As indicated in the Risk Register (Appendix D ), the Council recognises a potential lack of commercial demand as a critical risk. In mitigation, it is committed to early and continuous market engagement and promotion of opportunities as they become market ready, including operational liaison with SCDI, Scottish Enterprise and key private sector interests. 5.3 Funding Options and Payment Arrangements 5.3.1 The Council’s Treasury Management policies, practices and activities meet the requirements of the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA) Treasury Management Code of Practice and the Prudential Code for Capital Finance in Local Authorities. The Council’s Treasury Management Strategy (TMS) is approved in line with this code. 5.3.2 This strategy incorporates an investment and borrowing strategy, including the option to use the Public Works Loan Board as a source of borrowing, and the setting of Prudential and Treasury Indicators over a ten-year period. In line with the requirements of the code, the Council produces a mid-year report in September/October which updates and revises the current year indicators if required. The Council’s investment plans are managed within a sound financial environment. 5.3.3 The infrastructure is not dependent upon private sector funding sources for delivery as it is expected that the site can be brought to market using the funds provided through the Glasgow City Region City Deal including the identified contribution from the Council. Private sector investment will subsequently be expected to facilitate the development of the individual plots. This will be dependent upon market demand at the time of releasing the land. As set out in the strategic case, it is anticipated that there will be a demand for additional developable land in West Dunbartonshire by the time the site is brought to market. Therefore, the private sector investment required to facilitate the build out of the site is expected to be forthcoming, however, the Council will continue discussions with potential site developers and occupiers. Potential capital receipts from sale of plots have not been factored into the financing to date. 5.3.4 Partnership working, marketing and discussions with one or more large tenants which could help ‘anchor’ the development have taken place with a view to establishing investment in the site as soon as it is ready to be occupied. 5.3.5 Given the long timescales anticipated to realise the full build out of the site it is not expected to be a significant barrier to the successful development of the site if the private sector does not come forward immediately to develop the site. Page 101
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 90 5.3.6 The Council intends to make use of Prudential Borrowing to fund the initial investment in the project before City Deal grant funding is received and for the Council’s overall share of the investment cost (14%). 5.3.7 Payments to external parties (i.e. contractors, etc.) will be made upon the satisfactory completion of tasks and upon the reaching of pre-agreed milestone points in the project. The exact payment points will be agreed between the Council and its appointed contractors in accordance with the terms and conditions agreed at appointment and the requirements of the Construction Act. 5.3.8 The Council has sought to secure additional / replacement funding from other sources, but in the current economic climate this has proved impractical. There are a limited number of funding sources for development infrastructure investment. Sources explored include the following. Developer contributions – there is no prospective developer for the site until such time as the ownership and infrastructure constraints are addressed. The Council – funding would need to be provided from prudential borrowing and would therefore reduce investment available for other planned project proposals. Scottish Government – there are no current funding programmes that would cover the cost of infrastructure and site servicing. Transport Scotland – would not fund where the need is generated by a single development project (i.e., Exxon site) and is focused on delivering against an identified programme of trunk road projects. 5.4 Procurement and Community Benefits Strategy 5.4.1 There is an over-arching Procurement Strategy jointly developed and agreed between the Council and the Glasgow City Region – City Deal local authorities. A five-year procurement plan has been developed reflecting the requirements of the Cabinet, Chief Executives Group, Lead Officers, and PMO. Detail of the Community Benefits approach is provided in Chapter 7. Procurement Strategy 5.4.2 Over the past two years, the Exxon Project Board has considered and approved the procurement of works. A Lead Consultant contract was awarded to Stantec in March 2015 and updated in October 2016. The latter was procured as a direct award via the South Lanarkshire Professional Services framework agreement which came to an end in June 2022 when a Delivery Agent contract for elements of the Exxon Site Development was awarded to Stantec in May 2022 via the Scotland Excel Engineering and Technical Consultancy framework agreement. 5.4.3 The Exxon Project Board considered the options for the design and construction of the site and approved the Pre-Construction Services at the Former Bowling Site, Milton, Delivery Agreement utilising the Scape Procure Scotland Limited framework agreement for Civil Engineering which was awarded on 17 March 2023. If the design meets the Council’s expectations, the Council will proceed to construction utilising the same framework agreement in Q4 2023. 5.4.4 Other specialist contracts have been placed to support the development of this project as needed. Justification for the Proposed Approach 5.4.5 The Council has significant experience in major contract procurement and will utilise this knowledge and experience throughout this project. Page 102
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 91 Key Procurement Milestones and Delivery Dates 5.4.6 Key procurement dates are as shown in Table 5-1 below. Table 5-1 Procurement Milestones Action Programme Date Completion of site remediation December 2023 Complete FBC and update commercial and financial cases June 2023 Commencement of works Q4 2023 Completion of infrastructure works April 2026 Project Monitoring and Evaluation December 2026 – March 2046 5.5 Commercial Risks 5.5.1 The following top 3 commercial risks have been identified and are described in further detail in the Risk Register in Appendix D Following site acquisition, remediation and servicing, potential lack of commercial demand is a critical risk (003) Necessary statutory approvals for development cannot be gained, additional requirements or are delayed (Internal/External) (048); and Programme slippage incurs additional project costs (Internal) (021). Page 103
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 92 6 Financial Case 6.1 Overall Project Approval 6.1.1 The project has an approval sum of £27,897,000m as ratified by Cabinet in August 2015. The current estimated project cost is £44,324,635 in June 2023 reflecting increased construction cost estimates. This total is inclusive of contingency which provide mitigation against programme risks. 6.1.2 Tender cost estimates, which have been prepared by contractors during the preparation of this FBC, have been prepared for the construction works including consideration of external consultancy input, internal design, and management input, enabling works, and monitoring requirements. 6.2 Project Funding 6.2.1 The Council secured committee approval for the Strategic Business Case on 24 June 2015, and this was subsequently approved by the City Region Cabinet on 18 August 2015. The Outline Business Case (OBC) for the City Deal project was approved at Council on 22 February 2017 with a budget of £27.897m funding from City Deal and the Council’s 14% contribution commitment equating to £3.906m. This was subsequently approved by the City Region Cabinet on 11 April 2017. 6.2.2 A revised OBC requesting City Deal funding of £34.050m including a 14% Council commitment of £4.767m was approved at Council on 28 November 2018. At the same meeting it was agreed that should the additional City Region funding not be made available; the Council would fund the additional capital spend noting that an expected future receipt from plot sales of around £1.6m would offset this spend. 6.2.3 Private sector contributions will take the form of developer contributions or land sales when the site is brought to market. No private sector investment is presently being levered to support the site infrastructure and servicing needed to make the site effective, but its attraction once this activity is completed is an essential requirement in achieving the anticipated economic benefits. 6.3 Summary of Project Costs 6.3.1 The initial capital cost estimates for the project were established during negotiations to establish the Glasgow City Region City Deal in 2014. Since then, work has been completed to develop a Masterplan, a detailed design, and an updated work programme. This greater understanding has enabled updated capital costs to be estimated, now at 2023 prices, for a construction period from Q4 2023 to 2026. The project costs are presented below in Table 6-1. Page 104
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 93 Table 6-1 Project Capital Costs (Option 5) – June 2023 Item Cost (£) SPINE Road 6,848,746 Dunglass Junction 1,823,727 Dumbuck Junction 938,287 Eastern Overbridge 548,106 Western Underbridge 5,389,788 NCN Route 7 925,817 Flood Mitigation / Development Platforms 4,853,311 Site Drainage 1,501,402 Public Realm Works 0 Utilities Diversion 1,103,206 3rd Party Land 433,400 Professional Fees 6,158,486 Construction Preliminaries 11,465,356 Contingencies 2,335,002 Total 44,324,635 Notes: Contingency is consistent with the level of design detail available 6.3.2 It is anticipated that the Council’s share of the investment will be £6,205,449 representing 14%, with the remainder being funded by grant from the UK and Scottish Governments. Table 6-2 Project Finance Overview Project Finance Overview £m Section 1 - Overall Project Approval Approved Baseline Project Cost (Per City Deal Formal Approval) 27.897 Cabinet Virement Approvals 0 Revised Approved Project Cost 27.897 Current Project Estimate (including Development Platforms) 44.325 Section 2 - Project Funding Council Funding 6.205 Third Party Contributions (additional to section 1 above) 0 Amount to be funded from City Deal Grant 38.120 Total Funding 44.325 Page 105
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 94 Section 3 - Summary of Project Costs SPINE Road 6.849 Dunglass Junction 1.824 Dumbuck Junction 0.938 Eastern Overbridge 0.548 Western Underbridge 5.390 NCN Route 7 0.926 Flood Mitigation 4.853 Site Drainage 1.501 Public Realm Works 0.000 Utilities Diversion 1.103 3rd Party Land 0.433 Professional Fees 6.158 Construction Preliminaries 11.465 Contingency 2.335 Total 44.325 Phasing of Project Expenditure Year £m 2015/16 0.192 2016/17 0.353 2017/18 0.468 2018/19 0.304 2019/20 0.196 2020/21 0.723 2021/22 0.444 2022/23 1.265 2023/24 7.277 2024/25 20.728 2025/26 10.969 2026/27 1.406 Total 44.325 Project Expenditure on Non-Council Assets £m Estimated Expenditure on Assets not Council Owned (third party land acquisition costs) 0.433 Section 4 - Ongoing Revenue Implications Page 106
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 95 £m Full Year Revenue Implications 0.072 First Year Revenue implications 0.005 Revenue Funding Source WDC General Fund budget Main Financial Dependencies Capital Funding from the Glasgow City Region City Deal Achievement of milestones as defined by SG/UKG linked to funding of City Deal. Main Financial Risks Slippage or delay in the programme incurring additional costs Insufficient funding due to complexity of site Insufficient availability of non-financial resources for project delivery Risk of milestones not being achieved e.g. GVA and therefore loss of grant funding. Risk that the project does not proceed as a City Deal project thereby any costs incurred fall fully on WDC. If after significant spend it becomes clear that the total cost is significantly underestimated and City Deal can’t fund the addition, there is a risk to project completion with all or part of the cost falling to WDC with no deliverable site. 6.4 Expenditure on Assets Not Council Owned 6.4.1 The Council must acquire land from third parties and there will be associated costs, however these are currently subject to confidential commercial negotiations. 6.4.2 The existing railway bridge at the eastern end of the site will remain in the Council’s ownership and the Council will have full responsibility for its ongoing maintenance. 6.4.3 The proposed new underpass of the railway at the western end of the site will transfer to the ownership of Network Rail but under a maintenance agreement with the Council. 6.4.4 Current Scottish Government guidance allows the Council to invest capital resources in assets that are not owned by the Council. 6.5 Ongoing Revenue Implications 6.5.1 The road infrastructure constructed as part of the project will be adopted by the appropriate roads authority, either Transport Scotland or the Council, as part of the public road network. 6.5.2 The eastern and western junctions connecting to the A82, the site spine road and all associated infrastructure will become part of the local road network. There will consequently be an ongoing requirement for their maintenance, the costs of which will be met as part of the local authority’s continuous cycle of revenue expenditure. Following adoption of the works, the infrastructure will be inspected in line with the Council’s road asset management plan and defect repairs/resurfacing etc. will be programmed in line with the Council’s defect management plan. Page 107
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 96 6.5.3 Any modifications on the A82 Trunk Road and the traffic signals at both the eastern and western junctions will become the maintenance responsibility of Transport Scotland as the roads authority for the strategic road network. 6.5.4 It is not expected that there will be a requirement for any maintenance work to be undertaken on the carriageway or footways until 12 months after construction. The full year estimated revenue cost for 2026/27 for the new and upgraded infrastructure is approximately £72,000 per annum and will be funded in perpetuity by the Council. 6.6 Main Financial Dependencies 6.6.1 The project is dependent upon the funding from the Glasgow City Region City Deal and from the Council. 6.6.2 Contingency sums of an appropriate level to the scale and complexity of the works have been calculated and applied for each contract to mitigate the risk of unforeseen on-site issues and delays due to, for example, inclement weather. 6.6.3 At present it is assumed that the request to the City Region for the additional funding share for the 86% of the increase in cost will be funded and if Council agrees this FBC then the capital plan will be updated to reflect this. Should the City Deal 86% share not be agreed by Cabinet, or not agreed in full, then if the Council has accepted that it may have to find up to the full additional cost, which would require to be added to the updated Council capital plan. 6.7 Financial Risks 6.7.1 All the Financial Risks have been set out in detail in the Risk Register attached as Appendix D The top 3 financial risk include: Programme slippage incurs additional costs (Internal) (021) Council Budget pressures impact upon resources available to progress project (Internal) (035) Acquisition of 3rd party land by Council (032) 6.7.2 Any potential project cost slippages or over-runs will be managed by the Project Manager and presented to the Exxon Project Board where the Project Sponsor will have overall responsibility and report any variations to Full Council during regular City Region Deal Council update committee papers. The Exxon Project Board, which includes the Section 95 officer who leads on Council finances, will also have oversight and an important role to play in monitoring and managing the project finances. The Council will therefore have ultimate responsibility for cost over-runs beyond the budget for development of the project / City Deal approval. 6.7.3 The Council is VAT registered and pays and recovers VAT according to HMRC guidelines. Page 108
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 97 7 Management and Sustainability Case 7.1 Project Roles Management Procedures 7.1.1 The Assurance Framework sets out a standardised governance structure for the delivery of City Deal schemes. The Council has established internal governance arrangements for the management of its City Deal project. 7.1.2 A dedicated Council City Deal Project Board has been established, with the authority to agree the Business Case prior to submission to the Council for approval prior to submission to the City Deal Programme Management Office. The Board has otherwise no decision-making powers but provides a mechanism for regular progress updates and dialogue on all infrastructure, employability and business and innovation strands of the City Deal programme between responsible officers and Elected Members. The City Deal Project Board reports to Council on a regular basis. 7.1.3 The Project Board meets monthly, or they may convene as required to review progress and address problems. It discusses strategic issues relative to the Council’s City Deal project, key matters arising across the City Deal programme and emerging from the Programme Management Office and City Deal Support Groups. It also monitors the City Deal Programme Risk Register. 7.1.4 The project delivery team has been selected to ensure that it has all the necessary skills and expertise required to deliver the project. In addition, the support of specialist development and infrastructure consultants Stantec has been procured to help facilitate the successful and timely delivery of the project. Project Responsibility 7.1.5 The Capital Investment Programme, managed by Craig Jardine, will co-ordinate the delivery of the project. 7.1.6 The key project roles have been allocated as follows: Project Sponsor: Gail MacFarlane Project Manager: Patricia Rowley 7.1.7 The experience of the team is outlined as follows. Gail Macfarlane, Project Sponsor Gail has over 25 years working in local authorities with over 10 in senior management positions. A Civil Engineer with Economic Development experience Gail has led on the delivery of key transport infrastructure and regeneration projects including structures, roads and public realm works such as the Bishopbriggs Relief Road, Connecting Clydebank, and Lomond Bridge Refurbishment. Current projects include Gruggies Burn flood alleviation project, valued at £20m, and responsibility for the project delivery of the council’s city deal project at the Exxon site, valued in the region of £34m. Currently responsible for the strategic and operational delivery of Roads, Waste, Fleet and Grounds as Chief Officer for Roads and Neighbourhood Services. The role has responsibility for 415 employees and a revenue budget of £38m. Page 109
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 98 Patricia Rowley, Project Manager Patricia is responsible for delivery and project management of key capital regeneration projects (Exxon City Deal and District Heating Network at Queens Quay) with an overall value of £60m, from business case stages through to construction and commissioning. Prior to joining the Council in 2022 Patricia was responsible for delivery and project management of multi- disciplinary major fluvial and coastal flood protection projects (Upper Garnock Flood Protection Scheme, Millport Coastal Flood Protection Scheme and Millburn Flood Scheme) from concept through to construction with an overall value of circa £46m. 7.2 Project Governance Structure 7.2.1 To ensure the effective delivery of City Deal, a governance model has been agreed. These governance arrangements will be driven by the Glasgow and Clyde Valley Cabinet of Council Leaders. Supporting this decision-making body will be a Chief Executive’s Group, a Finance Strategy Group, a Regeneration and Economy Group and the independent Commission on Urban Growth. 7.2.2 A Programme Management Office (PMO), based in Glasgow City Council but funded by all Councils, will provide support, coordination, and expertise to assist delivery by the authorities themselves. 7.2.3 The Assurance Framework sets out a standardised governance structure for the delivery of City Deal schemes. This sets out the progression and reporting of the individual projects to the independent PMO in Glasgow, through the Chief Executive’s Group to the Cabinet (which is the ultimate decision-making body for the City Deal). The Cabinet links directly with both the UK and Scottish governments and in addition will be advised on the monitoring and evaluation of the success of the City Deal programme by the Independent Commission on Urban Growth and the National Panel. In performing its role, the Cabinet will consult with the Glasgow and Clyde Valley Economic Leadership Board. As part of the implementation of this project by the Council, all guidance issued by these groups through the PMO, and through updates to the Assurance Framework and Programme Business Case, will be acted upon and where required considered in future iterations of this Business Case. 7.2.4 The project governance structure within the Council is shown in Figure 7-1. This highlights clear lines of responsibility and accountability for delivery of the various elements of the project. Page 110
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 99 Figure 7-1 Council Governance Structure 7.2.5 The Project Sponsor leads the Project Board and has overall authority for those matters delegated to officers to progress, with project monitoring and evaluation sitting with the Project Manager. 7.2.6 The Capital Investment Team which includes the Project Manager for the Exxon project forms part of the Local Authority Governance Project Board. They have been embedded in all aspects of the project development from Business Case development through to the design elements of the proposed works and will be the Project Manager for the Local Authority during the implementation phases of the project. 7.2.7 For those matters not expressly delegated to officers, the Council and its committees provide guidance and oversight. Reports on progress on the City Deal overall, including the Exxon Site Development project, are heard by the Council. As matters progress, service committees, statutory committees (principally Planning Committee), Tendering Committee and the Audit and Performance Review Committee are likely to have increasing input into the guidance and oversight of the project. The membership of the Project Board is as shown in Table 7-1. Gail MacFarlane Project Sponsor Alan Douglas Chief Officer Strategic Management Gillian McNamara Economic Developent Pamela Clifford Planning Manager Angela Wilson Chief Officer Strategic Management Annabel Travers Procurement Manager Craig Jardine Asset Management Michelle Lynn Assest Manager Laurence Slavin Chief Officer Strategic Management Project Manager Patricia Rowley Stantec Strategic Advisors Page 111
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 100 Table 7-1 Council Project Board Board Member Department Project Role Gail MacFarlane Head of Service Roads & Neighbourhood Delivery Project Sponsor Alan Douglas Chief Officer Strategic Management Regulatory & Regeneration Angela Wilson Chief Officer Strategic Management Supply, Distribution and Property Service Laurence Slavin Chief Officer Strategic Management Resources Service Gillian McNamara Economic Development Economic Development Manager (inc. Monitoring & Evaluation) Annabel Travers Procurement Manager Procurement Manager, (inc Community Benefits Craig Jardine Asset Management Corporate Asset Manager Pamela Clifford Planning Service Planning, Building Standards & Environmental Health Patricia Rowley Capital Investment Team Project Manager Michelle Lynn Asset Management Assets Coordinator 7.2.8 In addition, Dougie McDonald, Infrastructure Director, Stantec attends the Project Board by invitation. Stantec was appointed following a competitive tendering process and are directly managed by the Council’s Project Manager. Stantec’s work is overseen by the Project Board. Stantec provide regular progress reports which are reviewed by the Project Manager and the Board. Instructions are agreed and issued to Stantec by the Project Manager. 7.3 Risk Management 7.3.1 All risks that could affect the successful implementation of the project have been identified and are set out in detail in the Risk Register attached as Appendix D . This includes details of risk owners and mitigation measures. Risk Management Procedure 7.3.2 The Council has adopted a City Deal Programme Risk Management Strategy which mirrors the wider City Deal Risk Management Strategy and complements the broad principles of the Council’s Corporate Risk Management Strategy. The Council will adhere to the ‘Escalating and Reporting Structure’ as detailed in the Assurance Framework Part 3, Section 5.5. Roles and Responsibilities in relation to risk are outlined in the City Deal Risk Management Strategy. The project will be managed in a comprehensive manner consistent with the City Deal risk management requirements whilst also following internal risk management principles and procedures. 7.3.3 The West Dunbartonshire City Deal project risk register is not viewed in isolation but is proactively managed and overseen by the Project Board where it is reviewed regularly. Environmental Risk Management 7.3.4 All Environmental Risks have been set out in detail in the Risk Register attached as Appendix D. Page 112
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 101 7.3.5 A Construction Environmental Management Plan has been prepared and will be submitted as part of the detailed planning application. The Construction Environmental Management Plan includes the following information/mitigation measures: A plan of the phasing of the works on the site; Baseline levels for noise, vibration and dust, and details of any monitoring protocols that may be necessary during construction works; Requirements for monitoring and record keeping; Contact details during normal working hours and emergency details outside working hours; The mechanism for the public to register complaints and the procedures for responding to complaints; Details of construction operations highlighting any operations likely to result in disturbance and/or working hours outside the core working period, with an indication of the expected duration of key phases and dates; The details of proposed routes for heavy goods vehicles travelling to and from the site; Details of all works involving interference with a public road, including temporary carriageway/footpath closures, realignment and diversions; Site measures/practices to address potential residential amenity issues; and Mitigation measures to prevent the pollution of watercourses from surface water run-off. Scored Assessment, Risk Likelihood, Probability and Mitigating Actions 7.3.6 The detailed project Risk Register has been developed to identify project risks which are scored on initial and residual risk probability and impact. Key controls and procedures, mitigating actions, the lead responsibility and the timescale for regular review for each identified risk have also been identified. Risk analysis, identification and estimation for the project have been undertaken in accordance with the methodology outlined within the City Deal Risk Management Strategy. Risk estimation has been calculated by assigning values to the probability and impact of a risk against the set guidance criteria provided. The top five risks for the project have also been identified. 7.3.7 Existing, escalating or new risks are recorded and monitored by the Project Board. A working issues log has been established for the project which is reviewed and updated regularly by the project manager. Monthly updates on project risks and issues are provided to the Programme Management Office through project status and issues log reporting. Roles and Responsibilities 7.3.8 The Project Manager has overall responsibility for managing project risk, including keeping the project risk register and issues log up to date, regular reporting to the Project Board and to the Programme Management Office. The project manager will work closely with contract administrators during contract implementation periods to ensure that all risks and issues are identified, recorded and monitored; to identify and implement mitigation actions and to identify and record any programme and/or financial implications resulting from Early Warnings and Compensation Events. Page 113
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 102 7.3.9 If further management attention is required, reporting is undertaken to the relevant management team who are responsible for ensuring that appropriate action is taken on a timely basis by the appropriate responsible officers. 7.3.10 The Council’s corporate management team comprising the Chief Executive and Chief Officers of the Council has overall responsibility for risk management and for developing a comprehensive corporate risk management strategy. 7.4 Resilience 7.4.1 Measures to ensure the ongoing resilience of the site to climate change and other environmental impacts are being built into the development proposals. Flood prevention measures, a sustainable urban drainage strategy, environmental mitigation and green network proposals are a fundamental component of the strategy for the site. These have been developed to accompany the detailed planning application for the site. 7.5 Greener Placemaking 7.5.1 The project will bring 19.10 hectares of brownfield, previously contaminated, land back into effective commercial use in the central and eastern areas of the site. Significant areas of enhanced greenspace and new, previously unattainable, public access for recreation will result from the proposals as indicated in the Masterplan. Full details of the access and green network enhancements have been developed to accompany the detailed planning application for the site. 7.6 Active and Lower Carbon Travel 7.6.1 Measures to encourage the use of active and lower carbon transport modes will be built into the development planning process starting with the high-level proposals in the Masterplan and becoming increasingly detailed as land-use proposals for the site become formalised. Measures to encourage sustainable travel will be incorporated into the Transport Assessment. 7.6.2 Through enhanced greenspace on site and provision of new public access to areas which have never been publicly accessible, significant improvements to walking and cycling opportunities should result from the proposals. 7.6.3 The measures to facilitate sustainable travel will be defined as proposals for the site become clearer but are likely to include such things such as support for new or amended bus routes that serve the site, provision of cycle routes, cycle parking, car share schemes, pool cars, parking permits, interest free loans for season tickets or bicycle purchases as well as the provision of shower and changing facilities on site. 7.7 Other Matters for Consideration Subsidy Control 7.7.1 There are no issues anticipated in relation to Subsidy Control. 7.7.2 The Council has assessed the Subsidy Control risk of the Council receiving funding from the City Deal for the development of roads and other infrastructure to support delivery of the project. 7.7.3 The project will deliver the construction of new accesses, a new spine road and supporting infrastructure improving accessibility to the core and strategic road network and providing a direct link to the site. It will also open land, which is currently held privately, to the public. Page 114
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 103 7.7.4 The project is considered to have limited risk given that the spine road will be open to all and free of charge and when built will not favour any particular non-Council proprietor over any other party. The Council has confirmed that any third-party land required for the project will be acquired at market value. On this basis, the funding of the project is unlikely to be regarded as “selective” (i.e. it does not favour only certain undertakings) and on that basis, would not fall within the Subsidy Control rules. There is sufficient evidence held by the Council that the roads and infrastructure will provide a wider benefit to the public at large in terms of providing a connection between publicly accessible areas and the Clyde Waterfront and enhanced green networks. 7.7.5 The project is therefore strategic enabling infrastructure which unlocks development and does not benefit a single developer or landowner. Competition 7.7.6 There are no issues anticipated in relation to competition. Land Ownership and Compulsory Purchase Orders 7.7.7 Some parcels of land that are required to provide the infrastructure access to the site are in the ownership of third parties. The Council has either completed third party land acquisition or is at an advanced stage of negotiations with all landowners. There is no envisaged requirement to apply Compulsory Purchase Order powers to acquire the necessary land to facilitate access to the development. 7.7.8 Should it be necessary to secure the land required to construct the accesses and link road from parties unwilling to sell, the Council is confident that it possesses sufficient powers and justification for their use and appropriate authority would be sought to promote a Compulsory Purchase Order pursuant to the Council’s powers under the Roads (Scotland) Act 1984. Third Party Arrangements 7.7.9 A Development Services Agreement (DSA) has been signed by the Council with Network Rail to cover the project’s detailed design phase. This will be updated to cover the construction period immediately prior to construction of the Western Underpass commencing. No other service agreements are anticipated. Legal Challenge 7.7.10 No legal challenge to the project is anticipated. Local Authority Powers 7.7.11 The Council possesses all the necessary powers to deliver this project. In some instances, the cooperation of other agencies will be required to apply their powers in the delivery of the project, including Network Rail (new Western Underpass of the railway) and Transport Scotland (new junctions on the A82). Regular consultation and partnership working with these agencies has been ongoing for several years and no difficulties in delivery are anticipated. 7.7.12 The Council will use its powers, including under the Local Government (Scotland) Act 1973 or the Roads (Scotland) Act 1984, as appropriate to deliver the project. Planning Permission 7.7.13 There are no legal obstacles to the development of the site anticipated because of planning policy. The site is defined as a Specialised Economic Development Site in the adopted Local Page 115
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 104 Plan and allocated for industrial/business opportunities in the proposed Local Development Plan (LDP). Planning Permission in Principle (PPiP) was granted for the development of up to 44,450m2 of commercial/ industrial floorspace, link road with upgraded junctions on the A82 and A814, a railway underbridge and an overbridge, landscaping, green network and public realm improvements, flood defences, drainage, transport, and utilities infrastructure including the formation of platforms for development across the site obtained for and associated Masterplan in January 2021. A detailed planning application for the infrastructure works is due to be submitted in June 2023. Equality Impacts 7.7.14 An Equality Impact Assessment has been undertaken by the Council and is presented in Appendix H . Environmental Impacts 7.7.15 The environmental impacts of the project have been assessed as part of the project development and planning permissions. The Council will observe all obligations under relevant environmental legislation and all appropriate measures including the requisite legal agreements, licenses and mitigation plans will be undertaken to ensure compliance with all relevant environmental legislation and planning requirements. Transport Impacts 7.7.16 As the site is a new land-use development, its transport impacts and access requirements have been, and will continue to be, assessed, and appraised in accordance with Transport Scotland’s Transport Assessment Guidance. 7.7.17 The individual transport and access requirements of each development within the site itself will be assessed and proposals put forward to ensure appropriate sustainable access through the Transport Assessment process. 7.8 Project Schedule 7.8.1 The current project Work Programme can be found at Appendix I . 7.9 Project Monitoring and Evaluation 7.9.1 The Council is fully aware of the need to demonstrate Best Value and progress towards economic impacts to adhere to the City Deal Assurance Framework. The Exxon Project Board replicates other Council major project boards including the District Heating Network and Levelling Up Fund Dumbarton Programme. For all of these Boards the Council has developed a consistent and robust monitoring and evaluation framework to ensure compliance with PMO (and other funder) requirements for performance management and has made allowance for its cost within the project budget. Monthly progress reporting on project development and delivery is provided to the Council’s Project Board and to the Programme Management Office via project status reports and MA programme reports. Benefit realisation updates will also be provided on a quarterly basis to adhere with the requirements of City Deal, using the methodology set out in the Benefit Tracking Template provided within the Assurance Framework. 7.9.2 A project monitoring and evaluation strategy has been developed, with the objectives and expected benefits to be tracked through a Benefits Realisation Plan. Gillian McNamara (Economic Development Manager) has responsibility for this element. The Council will monitor the project through its internal management and governance processes and will deliver an interim and final evaluation report of the project following construction completion in line with the Gateway Review processes/dates as set out by the PMO. Page 116
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 105 7.9.3 To keep in line with the City Deal Assurance Framework Stage Gateways, it is anticipated the following evaluations will take place, as the works progress: City Deal Stage Gateway 1 (2024) – an initial evaluation will provide an early indication that the project is operating as planned and on-track to realise construction outcomes; This phase will include an evaluation of the development and construction process, including an assessment of forecast vs. outturn project costs, together with reasons for variance, and will specifically report on progress with City Deal funded project elements; City Deal Stage Gateway 2 (2026) – a detailed evaluation, which will consider the scheme’s impacts, in the context of data gathered over a longer period, and provide a more detailed measurement as to what extent the longer-term objectives in the Benefits Realisation Plan are likely to perform against targets: This will report on the annual monitoring reports against the Benefits Realisation Plan, contractors’ and performance against community benefits. This longer timeframe also allows consideration of the impacts of wider initiatives, including counterfactual developments and measured change from the socio-economic baseline and environmental/ equalities impact assessments; and City Deal Stage Gateway 3 (2028/29) – a further assessment, similar to Stage Gateway 2: This will update the Stage 2 evaluation but will provide more evidence as to the projects ongoing progress and a snapshot of the potential longer-term impact. If required it will identify the need for more time to be allowed for all scheme benefits to be fully realised, should they not yet have been achieved. 7.9.4 In line with the tracking of benefits, scheme monitoring, and evaluation will be undertaken in line with the PMO’s Benefits Realisation Strategy. This entails that once the FBC has been approved by Cabinet, the Council will agree the Benefits Realisation Plan with the PMO based on the project outputs reported in this FBC. The Council will be responsible for providing the PMO with project output data as will be agreed in the project benefits realisation plan. The collation of project outputs will be carried out by the PMO. The Council has commenced monitoring of project outputs during the design and will continue this during the construction of the project, including monitoring of both contractual and voluntary community benefits. The PMO will work closely with the Commission and National Panel to ensure that the project output data collected is compatible with the requirements of programme wide economic evaluation. 7.9.5 The expected costs of monitoring and evaluation have been built into the project’s estimated costs reported as £35k up to 203516. 7.9.6 In accordance with the Assurance Framework, the ongoing project monitoring and evaluation after completion of the physical project works will be managed and implemented by the Council using an in-house dedicated Project Manager supplemented by external specialist consultants as required. 7.9.7 Monitoring and evaluation of the Exxon project will be aligned with the City Deal PMO approach for the wider programme. Arrangements for reporting against the Benefits Realisation Plan will include: Establishing a baseline value for each benefit; 16 Includes provision for monitoring and evaluation of £35,000. This reflects core evaluation and some monitoring activity. Routine monitoring will be embedded in the work of project officers and West Dunbartonshire Council staff Page 117
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 106 Establishing the primary source of data and frequency of collection; Preparation of monthly/ quarterly/ annual reports providing update on progress against the baseline and targets, and submission of reports to internal Council Groups/ Committees, PMO, and external review/ evaluation; and Oversight of, input to, and validation of, the key Gateway stage evaluations. 7.9.8 During construction, the project will be subject to fortnightly review meetings to discuss progress, programme, financial and technical matters. The hierarchy and scheduling of these meetings will be linked to the project start and will follow the frequency below: a four-weekly strategic review, update and management meeting. Information for this will be fed by a two-weekly operational, review, update and management meeting. 7.9.9 Project monitoring will include review against the Risk Register, financial, performance, benefits realisation monitoring, timetabling, contractor performance, etc. 7.9.10 In accordance with the Assurance Framework, the scheme will be monitored, thus providing the opportunity to evaluate the scheme against set criteria, including environmental and sustainability objectives. Strategic Assessment Framework (SAF) 7.9.11 At Glasgow City Region City Deal level, an assessment is required of the cumulative land-use and transport impacts of the Programme of Infrastructure projects. This will be undertaken using a Strategic Assessment Framework (SAF) managed by the PMO and operating with several themes. The Council is committed to supporting this process and providing timely inputs. Progress Reporting 7.9.12 In accordance with the Glasgow City Region City Deal requirements the Council will submit 4- weekly project reports to the PMO by email including a Project Status Report and Project Plan. 7.9.13 In addition, quarterly project reports will be submitted to the PMO by the Council. This will include a Benefits Realisation Report, Project Risk Register, Project Issues Register and Inter- Dependency Register. 7.9.14 Each benefit outlined in Appendix F will be monitored on a bi-monthly basis using the methodology set out in its Benefit Tracking Template which will emerge as the Business Case is developed. The Council will be developing a suite of internal KPIs as part of its Project Controls with an early warning system for escalation. 7.9.15 The Council also undertakes to share best practice with other authorities and maintain a Lessons Learned Log during the project lifecycle to ensure that the experience from this project can be applied to future projects. In accordance with the requirements of the PMO the Log will include: aspects of the project and processes which went well; aspects and processes which could have been improved; details of abnormal or unexpected events or issues; and Page 118
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 107 recommendations on how similar projects could be improved in future. 7.9.16 Furthermore, the Council commits to preparing a Lessons Learned Report at the end of the project or at the conclusion of a major phase of the project. This will cover the following areas: management and quality processes; a description of abnormal events causing deviations from plans; assessment of technical methods and tools used; recommendations for future enhancement or modification of project management method; useful measurements on how much effort was required to create the various projects; and notes on effective and ineffective quality reviews and other tests. 7.9.17 At a project specific level, monitoring will take place of the environmental impacts of the project to determine the extent to which the sensitive environmental receptors in and around the site are impacted by the development. The methodology for undertaking this will be developed drawing upon the advice of technical experts in this field as the project progresses through detailed design. 7.9.18 Similarly, the economic impacts of the project will be measured to determine the extent to which forecast targets are being delivered. This will form part of the benefit monitoring described previously and will apply best practice techniques in forecasting economic impacts to ensure an accurate representation of the project performance is calculated. Community Benefits 7.9.19 The scale of work involved in developing the site will generate a range of opportunities for training, work experience, apprenticeship and full-time work opportunities as well as potential for progression between them. Clarity at an early stage and consideration of recruitment mechanisms to engage the long-term or young unemployed to take up the opportunities will be critical in attracting recruits to the project. Offering clear guidance to contractors as to what their contract bid may contain, as well as any support they may expect in delivery e.g., co-ordination of recruitment under the community benefit programme, pre-employability programmes ahead of site work to meet contract schedules, etc. will be provided. This will encourage delivery to targets set in the Benefits Realisation Plan and, in showing that the practical concerns of contractors have been considered in advance, encourage high quality contractors to the opportunity. 7.9.20 As shown in Table 7-1 Annabel Travers, Procurement Manager, will be responsible for community benefits tracking. 7.9.21 A City Deal Community Benefits Strategy has been approved by the Glasgow City Region Cabinet and all the Council City Deal procurement processes will comply with this and seek to maximise community benefits. Monitoring of community benefit outcomes will be undertaken as part of specific contract management processes and reported to the PMO as part of the contract reporting obligations. 7.9.22 Community benefits can include a wide range of social, environmental, and economic initiatives which are secured as part of a public-sector procurement exercise. Often the most tangible benefits are those secured through targeted employment and support for small and medium enterprises. Page 119
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case 108 7.9.23 Community Benefit outcomes for the project will be linked to West Dunbartonshire Council’s strategic objectives for 2022-2027 and include: our area has the infrastructure for sustainable and inclusive growth where businesses can flourish; our partnerships will support economic development to deliver increased prosperity for our area. 7.9.24 The Glasgow City Region Strategy and Council policies have been used, proportionately, to target community benefits in the procurement of external supporting resources. All relevant Consultant appointments include contractual obligations to provide relevant community benefits. The community benefits already committed under the contracts already procured have been reported to the PMO and attributable to this project include the work placements, school visits, SME and 3rd Sector mentoring, careers events and structured training. Table 7-2 below sets out the anticipated minimum community benefits from delivery of the project. Table 7-2 Anticipated Minimum Community Benefits Community Benefit Number New Entrant – no relevant experience (TRE02) 2 New Entrant – Graduate (TRE03) 2 New Entrant – Apprenticeship (TRE04) 1 Completed Apprenticeship (TRE05) 1 Work Experience Placement (16+ Years of Age) (TST01) 3 Work Experience Placement (14 - 16 years of age) (TST02) 2 School Mentoring or Enterprise Programme (TST06) 4 S/NVQ (or equivalent) for Graduates (VTQ03) 1 Vocational Certification (VTQ05) 1 Supply chain briefing with SMEs including Micro-Businesses (SCD01) 2 Business Mentoring for an SME (SCD02) 1 7.10 Use of Specialist Advisors 7.10.1 Over the past two years, the Exxon Project Board has considered and approved the procurement of works. A Lead Consultant contract was awarded in March 2015 and updated in October 2016. The latter was procured as a direct award via the South Lanarkshire Professional Services framework agreement which came of an end in June 2022. Further, a Delivery Agent for Elements of the Exxon Site Development was appointed in May 2022 via the Scotland Excel Engineering and Technical Consultancy framework agreement. 7.10.2 Other specialist survey contracts have been placed to support the development of the project. Page 120
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Appendix A Socio-Economic Baseline A.1 Demographics West Dunbartonshire’s population is estimated to be around 88,300 according to 2020 mid-year figures. This is approximately 5% of the overall population within the Glasgow City Region. In contrast to both the City Region and national trends, West Dunbartonshire’s population has been decreasing since 1987. An index of population growth is shown in Figure A.1 below. Figure A.1: Index of Population Growth Furthermore, there has been a substantial demographic shift within the population structure of West Dunbartonshire. The 0-15 age group has declined by 10.5% since 2001, significantly above the decline of 0.9% for the Glasgow City Region and 1.1% increase for Scotland. Additionally, the working age population (16-64) has also decreased in West Dunbartonshire by 8.7% from 2000-2020. This contrasts with both the Glasgow City Region and national trends, where the 16-64 age group has increased by 4.3% and 4.1% respectively over the same period. Finally, the 65+ age group has increased by 14.4% in West Dunbartonshire, and this is below the City Deal Region and national figures of 20.1% and 31.2% respectively17. Figure A.2 shows age disaggregates of demographic changes in the three aforementioned areas (2011-2020). 17 Mid-Year Population Estimates - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Scotland Glasgow City Region Page 121
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Figure A.2: Changing Age Structure Source: NRS, Mid-year population estimates change 2011-2020. These trends indicate that West Dunbartonshire is struggling to attract or retain the key demographic groups that contribute to the economic vitality of the area. As a result, the full potential of the region is not able to be realised under present conditions. A.2 Macroeconomic Performance Gross Value Added Gross Value Added (GVA) is a key measure of wealth creation within an economy and represents the value of goods and services, less the cost of the inputs to produce them. In 2020, the economy of West Dunbartonshire was worth some £1.78bn, 1.23% of the whole Scotland economy and approximately 4.39% of the Glasgow City Region18 economy19. An index of GVA growth is shown in Figure A.3 below. 18 The Glasgow City Region City includes the eight local authorities East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, East Renfrewshire, Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire. 19 Regional GVA(I) by local authority in the UK, ONS. -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0-15 16-64 65+ West Dunbartonshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Page 122
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Figure A.3: Index of GVA growth (1999-2020) Source: Regional GVA(I) by local authority in the UK, ONS. Figure A.4 below shows the volatility of the annual growth rate. The West Dunbartonshire economy has grown on average by 3.38% per year since 2000. Until 2019, the growth rate was 3.88%, however, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a drop in GVA by 7.08% in 2020 alone. The average growth per year declined from 5.69% to 2.06% after 2007 and the West Dunbartonshire area experienced a weaker growth compared to both the Glasgow City Region and national averages. A breakdown of GVA growth is given in Table A.1. Figure A.4: GVA Per Annum Growth Rate (1999-2020) Source: Regional GVA(I) by local authority in the UK, ONS. 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Index of GVA per head (2000=100%) West Dunbartonshire Scotland Glasgow City Region -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 West Dunbartonshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Page 123
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Table A.1: GVA Growth Area Average growth per year 2000 – 2006 2007 - 2015 2016-2020 West Dunbartonshire 6.16% 1.38% 3.29% Glasgow City Region 5.60% 2.77% 1.86% Scotland 5.43% 2.06% 2.05% Source: Regional GVA(I) by local authority in the UK, ONS. GVA per head of population is a way of viewing the relative performance of the local economy within the national picture. It is a measure of how much output is being produced per person living within the economy irrespective of whether those individuals are working or not; it is therefore a reflection of the wealth of an area rather than the productivity of its workers. As shown in Table A.2 and Figure A.5 below, in 2020, GVA per head in West Dunbartonshire stood at £20,195, below the Glasgow City Region and national averages of £21,984 and £26,573 respectively. Analysis of the data also shows that after the Global Financial Crash (GFC) in 2008 GVA per head struggled to recover. However, between 2015 and 2016 GVA per head increased by 8.63% driven primarily by GVA and a relatively static population, indicating that there was significant commercial growth in the area over that period. Table A.2: GVA per capita Area GVA per head (£k) Average growth per year 2015 2020 2003 – 2006 2007 - 2015 2016- 2020 West Dunbartonshire 17,067 20,195 7.13% 1.60% 3.57% Glasgow City Region 20,366 21,984 6.44% 1.68% 1.57% Scotland 24,688 26,573 6.03% 2.25% 1.51% Source: Regional GVA(I) by local authority in the UK, ONS. Page 124
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Figure A.5: Change in GVA per Head of Population Source: Regional GVA(I) by local authority in the UK, ONS. Sectoral Overview Table A.3 below shows the change in sector contribution to total GVA in West Dunbartonshire over the period 2015 to 2020. Manufacturing (production) remains the largest GVA contributor to the area’s economy, accounting for 18.38% of the total generated. Table A.3: GVA generated by sector, West Dunbartonshire Sector 2015 2020 Change Total GVA (£m) Proportion of total Total GVA (£m) Proportion of total Production sector 329 21.53% 328 18.38% -0.30% Construction 55 3.60% 42 2.35% -23.64% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles 140 9.16% 139 7.79% -0.71% Transportation and storage 72 4.71% 93 5.21% 29.17% Accommodation and food service activities 39 2.55% 32 1.79% -17.95% Information and communication 34 2.23% 31 1.74% -8.82% Financial and insurance activities 108 7.07% 223 12.49% 106.48% Real estate activities 123 8.05% 123 6.89% 0.00% Professional, scientific and technical activities 47 3.08% 58 3.25% 23.40% Administrative and support service activities 33 2.16% 30 1.68% -9.09% Public administration and defence 182 11.91% 250 14.01% 37.36% - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 West Dunbartonshire Glasgow City Region Scotland Page 125
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Sector 2015 2020 Change Total GVA (£m) Proportion of total Total GVA (£m) Proportion of total Education 112 7.33% 128 7.17% 14.29% Human health and social work activities 206 13.48% 266 14.90% 29.13% Arts, entertainment and recreation 19 1.24%` 20 1.12% 5.26% Other service activities 28 1.83% 20 1.12% -28.57% Activities of households 1 0.07% 2 0.11% 100.00% Total 1,528 1,785 Source: Annual Business Survey Business Demography In 2016, there were around 2,025 active companies in West Dunbartonshire20. The number of active businesses increased by around 18% between 2010 and 2016; slightly higher than the increase in the City Region (17%) and Scotland (15%). In 2016, there was a net gain of 0.73 businesses (per 1,000 population) in the area compared to 0.93 and 1.05 (per 1,000 population) for the Glasgow City Region and Scotland as shown in Figure A.6 below. Figure A.6: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Net Change per 1000 Population Source: ONS Business Demography, 2016 A.3 Labour Market Trends Economic Activity Economic activity describes those of working age who are either employed or unemployed but seeking work. West Dunbartonshire residents are more economically active (77.0%) than the 20 ONS Business Demography, 2016 - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Scotland City Deal West Dunbartonshire Births Deaths Net change Page 126
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case national average (77.2%) and more than those of the Glasgow City Region (76.6%)21. This trend is mirrored in employment rates, shown in Table A.4 below. Table A.4: Economic Activity, September 2021 Economic Activity Employment West Dunbartonshire 77.0% 75.2% City Region 76.6% 74.5% Scotland 77.2% 74.5% Source: Annual Population Survey The economic activity rate in West Dunbartonshire has varied with a greater frequency and magnitude than both the City Region and national rates. Following 2012, the economic activity rate in West Dunbartonshire dipped significantly, before briefly rising to above the national average. This can be seen in Figure A.7 below. Figure A.7: Economic Activity, 2004-2018 Source: Annual Population Survey As shown in Table A.5, the total number of employee jobs (i.e. excluding self-employed, government supported trainees and HM Forces) in West Dunbartonshire was around 33,000 in 2017. 21 Annual Population Survey 68.0% 70.0% 72.0% 74.0% 76.0% 78.0% 80.0% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Glasgow City Region West Dumbartonshire Scotland Page 127
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Table A.5: Total Employee Jobs Total Employee Jobs 2021Count (000s) Change 2015-2021 Trend Absolute (000s) % West Dunbartonshire 33 +2.0 +6.45% Increasing Glasgow City Region 867 + 28.3 +3.37% Increasing Scotland 2,520 +58 +2.36% Increasing Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Unemployment Figure A.8 shows the proportion of the working age population who are unemployed. The change in the proportion unemployed in West Dunbartonshire is broadly similar to the regional and national situation. Currently, the unemployment rate for West Dunbartonshire is at 2.4% and is lower than both the Glasgow City Region and Scotland averages of 2.6% and 3.5% respectively22. Figure A.8: Job Seekers Allowance Claimant Rate Source: Annual Population Survey Employment Profile Table A.6 below shows employment by sector across West Dunbartonshire, the Glasgow City Region, and Scotland. Employment in West Dunbartonshire is broadly reflective of the wider economic landscape, i.e. most people are employed in the public sector (public administration, education and health), wholesale, retail and trade, and financial and business services (finance & insurance, property, business administration and support, and professional, scientific and technical positions). 22 Annual Population Survey, 2018. 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Glasgow City Region West Dunbartonshire Scotland Page 128
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Table A.6: Employment by Sector, 2022 Sector West Dunbartonshire Glasgow City Region Scotland Agriculture, forestry & fishing (A) 0.7% 0.8% 3.4% Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E) 0.9% 1.4% 2.4% Manufacturing (C) 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% Construction (F) 3.7% 6.5% 6.0% Motor trades (Part G) 1.3% 1.8% 1.7% Wholesale (Part G) 1.3% 2.3% 2.5% Retail (Part G) 11.8% 11.6% 10.0% Transport & storage (inc postal) (H) 3.7% 4.4% 4.1% Accommodation & food services (I) 7.4% 6.8% 7.5% Information & communication (J) 1.0% 2.7% 3.0% Financial & insurance (K) 5.9% 2.6% 2.9% Property (L) 1.0% 1.8% 1.5% Professional, scientific & technical (M) 2.9% 5.5% 6.4% Business administration & support services (N) 6.6% 8.4% 7.7% Public administration & defence (O) 10.3% 7.3% 6.3% Education (P) 8.8% 9.3% 8.3% Health (Q) 20.6% 15.9% 15.3% Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services (R,S,T and U) 4.4% 4.7% 4.2% Source: Annual Population Survey An occupational profile of West Dunbartonshire, the Glasgow City Region, and Scotland is shown in Table A.7 below. West Dunbartonshire exhibits a lower proportion of “Highly Skilled” occupations (42%) than the Glasgow City Region (48%) and Scotland as a whole (49%). Page 129
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Table A.7: Occupational Profile, 2021 Occupation West Dunbartonshire City Region Scotland Managers, directors and senior officials 6% 8% 8% Professional occupations 20% 25% 26% Associate professional and technical occupations 17% 15% 15% Highly Skilled 42% 48% 49% Administrative and secretarial occupations 13% 11% 10% Skilled trades occupations 9% 8% 9% Caring, leisure and other service occupations 15% 9% 9% Semi-Skilled 37% 27% 27% Sales and customer service occupations 6% 9% 8% Process, plant and machine operatives 5% 6% 6% Elementary occupations 11% 10% 10% Lower-skilled 21% 24% 23% Source: Annual Population Survey Education and Skills Table A.8 below shows the level of qualification of working age residents of West Dunbartonshire, the Glasgow City Region, and Scotland. Although reasonably well educated, on average, the residents of West Dunbartonshire are less qualified than the residents in the City Region and nationally. The proportion of people with no qualifications in the area (14.4%) is slightly higher than that in the Glasgow City Region area (9.9%) and significantly higher than that in Scotland (7.8%). Page 130
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Table A.8: Qualifications held by working age population West Dunbartonshire Glasgow City Region Scotland NVQ4+ 36.0% 47.7% 50.0% NVQ3 53.3% 63.6% 64.8% NVQ2 68.4% 76.8% 79.6% NVQ1 78.7% 83.9% 86.4% Other Qualifications 7.0% 6.2% 5.8% No Qualifications 14.4% 9.9% 7.8% Source: Annual Population Survey More details on levels of education and skills within West Dunbartonshire can be gained by examining the SIMD Education Domain. This domain measures the performance of SOAs in terms of: School pupil absences; Pupil performance on SQA at stage 4; Working age people with no qualifications; 17-21 year olds enrolling into higher education; and People aged 16-19 not in education, employment or training. Figure A.10 below shows the geographic distribution of educational deprivation within West Dunbartonshire. Areas of darker shading represent areas which suffer from more severe education deprivation. This is primarily concentrated in urban areas. Page 131
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Figure A.10: SIMD Education Domain Source: SIMD, 2016 A.4 Income Earnings Median gross weekly pay of full-time employees in West Dunbartonshire in 2022 were £61623. This is the lowest of all local authorities which comprise the Glasgow City Region and is lower than the Scottish median of £640. A detailed breakdown of median and mean earnings is shown in Table A.9 below. 23 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2022. Page 132
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Table A.9: Gross weekly pay of full-time employees (£), 2022 Median Mean East Dunbartonshire 745 899 East Renfrewshire 805 978 Glasgow City 634 719 Inverclyde 634 694 North Lanarkshire 657 705 South Lanarkshire 635 721 Renfrewshire 653 737 West Dunbartonshire 616 691 Scotland 640 732 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2022. Deprivation The latest available statistics indicate that in June 2018 approximately 1000 individuals were unemployed in West Dunbartonshire. This is equivalent to an unemployment rate of 2.4%, lower than both the City Region (2.7%) and Scotland (3.5%)24. The 2016 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) provides the most recent assessment of deprivation at district and super output area (SOA) across Scotland. The index is compiled using seven deprivation ‘domains’ including income, employment, health, education, skills and training, access to housing and services and geographic access and crime. Figure A.11 below shows that although the overall levels of deprivation in West Dunbartonshire are relatively low, there are a few SOAs within the 10% worst performing areas nationally. More specifically, 21 SOAs in the area that represent approximately 16.8% of the total and cover a population of 14,964 people. These are located mainly to the south of the area around Clydebank, Dalmuir and to the north and north-west near Balloch and Dumbarton. 24 Annual Population Survey, 2022 Page 133
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Figure A.11: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (2020) Source: SIMD, 2016. Page 134
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Appendix B Previous Council Project Experience Project Title and Description Value Delivery lead and year West Dunbartonshire Schools – PPP Project Delivery of the Council Schools PPP Project in partnership with private sector partner. The in-house team project managed the project of the delivery of 3 new secondary schools and 1 new primary and early education centre. This project was delivered on time and on budget. £110.00million Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team, Commercials led by Legal Services. 2006 - 2010 Queens Quay District Heating Centre and Network Extension Delivery of the Energy Centre in 2020 including first phase of connections in Queens Quay in 2021, additional connections to the Town Hall/Library and social rented flats in 2022. Design work for extension to the Golden Jubilee is underway £31 million Council Team including Regeneration and Legal with Project Management by Capital Investment Team. 2020-ongoing Bonhill & Goldenhill Primary Schools Project Delivery of 2 new primary schools through a traditional procurement route. The in-house team project managed the project of this amalgamated primary school contract using a consultant design team. £13.00million Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team, Commercials led by Legal Services. 2008 - 2011 Dumbarton Academy Schools Project Delivery of a new Dumbarton Academy through a Design and Build Contract. The in-house team project managed the project consisting of this replacement secondary school contract using a consultant design team. £17.00million Council Team including Consultancy Services, Commercials led by Legal Services. 2010 – 2013 Bellsmyre Schools Campus, Dumbarton Delivery of a new co-located primary and early years’ campus through a Design and Build Contract in partnership with Hub West Scotland. The in-house team project managed the project of this co-located primary school contract using a consultant design team. £10.65million Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team, Commercials led by Legal Services. 2013 - 2016 Vale of Leven Workshops, Alexandria £1.95million Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team and Page 135
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Project Title and Description Value Delivery lead and year Delivery of a new commercial workshop development in Vale of Leven Industrial Estate, Alexandria. This project was 50% funded by Scottish Government. The in-house team project managed this development in partnership with Hub WEST Scotland. Regeneration, Commercials led by Legal Services. 2013 - 2015 Kilpatrick ASN Secondary School Delivery of a new Additional Support Needs Secondary School and Early Years campus through a Design and Build Contract in partnership with Hub West Scotland. The in-house team project managed the project of this ASN school contract using a consultant design team. £10.49million . Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team, Commercials led by Legal Services. 2013 - 2016 New O.L.S.P High School Delivery of a new Secondary School and campus through a Design, Build, Finance and Maintain Contract in partnership with Hub West Scotland and Scottish Future Trust. The in-house team project managed the project of this school contract using a consultant design team. £25.9million Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team, Finance and Commercials led by Legal Services 2013 - 2017 New Balloch Schools Campus Delivery of a new co-located primary and early years’ campus through a Design and Build Contract in partnership with Hub West Scotland. The in-house team project managed the project of this co-located primary school contract using a consultant design team. £16.8million Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team, Commercials led by Legal Services 2015 - 2018 Office Rationalisation Programme Rationalisation of office space by 53% to provide modern and fit for purpose working environments to support enhance service delivery and achieve revenue savings. The in-house team project managed the programme using a consultant design teams in partnership with Hub West Scotland £22.4million Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team, Commercials led by Legal Services 2014 - 2018 New Clydebank Leisure Centre Delivery of a new leisure centre in Clydebank through a Design and Build Contract in partnership with Hub West Scotland. The in-house team project managed the programme using a consultant design teams in partnership with Hub West Scotland £23.81million Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team and Neighbourhood Services, Commercials led by Legal Services 2014 - 2016 Page 136
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Project Title and Description Value Delivery lead and year Dumbarton Care Home Delivery of a new Care Home through a Design and Build Contract in partnership with Hub West Scotland. The in-house team project managed the programme using a consultant design teams in partnership with Hub West Scotland £13.37million Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team, Commercials led by Legal Services. 2014 - 2016 Clydebank Care Home Delivery of a new Care Home through a Design and Build Contract in partnership delivered with in-house project resource. £14.50million Council Team including Capital Investment Projects Team, Commercials led by Legal Services. 2018 - 2021 District Heat Energy Centre, Queens’ Quay Delivery of a new District Heating Energy Centre and associated infrastructure delivered with in-house project resource working in partnership with external consultant/contractor team. £22.50million Council Team including Regeneration and Legal with Project Management by Capital Investment Team. 2017 - 2021 New Renton Schools Campus Delivery of a new co-located primary and early years’ campus through a Design and Build Contract in partnership with Scottish Procurement Alliance Framework. The in-house team project managed the project of this co-located primary school contract using a consultant design team. £15.1million Council Capital Projects Team. 2019 - 2022 Dumbarton Town Centre Regeneration 16 Church Street – award winning repurposing and extension of listed building to accommodate Council staff in a town centre Location £15.4 million Council Capital Projects Team 2017-2018 Town Centre Regeneration Various public realm, heritage and connectivity projects to enhance our three town centres, utilising Town Centre Fund, Place Based Improvement Programme and Council capital funding £2.4 million Council Regeneration Team 2020-2023 Dumbarton Town Centre Levelling Up Programme £21.1 million 2022 -ongoing Page 137
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Project Title and Description Value Delivery lead and year Delivery of 3 inter-related town centre regeneration projects including refurbishment of a listed building, redevelopment of obsolete shopping units and a public realm and connectivity project Page 138
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Appendix C Environmental Impact Assessment Page 139
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Glasgow City Region City Deal Project Submission from West Dunbartonshire Council Image credit: Guthrie Aerial Photography Exxon Site Development Project Environmental Statement: Non-Technical Summary Pt1 September 2019 Page 140
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind ii Document Control Sheet Project Name: Exxon Site Development Project Project Ref: 30953 Report Title: Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary Date: September 2019 Name Position Signature Date Prepared by: Technical Authors as listed in Appendix 1.1 April 2019 Reviewed by: Duncan Smart Mark Johnston Associate Planner Senior Associate MJ / DS April 2019 Approved by: Douglas McDonald Director - Scotland DMcD April 2019 For and on behalf of Stantec UK Ltd Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved V1 April 2019 Draft for Client Comment Various MJ DMcD V2 April 2019 Draft including Ecology summary for Client Comment Various DS DMcD V3 September 2019 Final Draft for WDC Regeneration Various DS DMcD V4 April 2020 Final for WDC Planning (with Stantec branding) Various DS DMcD This report has been prepared by Stantec UK Limited (‘Stantec’) on behalf of its client to whom this report is addressed (‘Client’) in connection with the project described in this report and takes into account the Client's particular instructions and requirements. This report was prepared in accordance with the professional services appointment under which Stantec was appointed by its Client. This report is not intended for and should not be relied on by any third party (i.e. parties other than the Client). Stantec accepts no duty or responsibility (including in negligence) to any party other than the Client and disclaims all liability of any nature whatsoever to any such party in respect of this report. Registered Office: Buckingham Court Kingsmead Business Park, London Road, High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire, HP11 1JU Office Address: 5th Floor, 9 George Square, Glasgow G2 1DYG T: +44 (0)141 352 2360 E: info.Glasgow@stantec.com Page 141
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind iii Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 The EIA, ES and Related Documents ........................................................................... 1 1.3 Project Team ................................................................................................................. 1 2 Site and Surrounding Area ...................................................................................................... 3 2.1 The Site ......................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 The Surrounding Area ................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Cumulative Development .............................................................................................. 5 3 The Proposed Development .................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................ 7 3.2 Key Physical Characteristics ......................................................................................... 7 3.3 Key Operational Characteristics .................................................................................... 9 3.4 Materials, Natural Resource Usage, Emissions and Waste ....................................... 10 3.5 Consideration of Alternatives ...................................................................................... 10 4 Assessment Methods............................................................................................................. 11 4.1 Overview of EIA ........................................................................................................... 11 4.2 EIA Screening and Scoping ........................................................................................ 11 4.3 Consultation ................................................................................................................. 12 4.4 EIA Methodology ......................................................................................................... 12 5 Likely Significant Effects ....................................................................................................... 14 5.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 14 5.2 Ground Conditions....................................................................................................... 14 5.3 Water, Hydrology & Flood Risk ................................................................................... 16 5.4 Ecology 20 5.5 Traffic & Transport ....................................................................................................... 21 5.6 Air Quality .................................................................................................................... 22 5.7 Noise & Vibration ......................................................................................................... 22 5.8 Landscape & Visual ..................................................................................................... 23 5.9 Archaeology & Heritage .............................................................................................. 25 5.10 Environmental Interactions .......................................................................................... 26 6 Mitigation and Monitoring Requirements ............................................................................ 27 6.2 Proposed Mitigation Measures .................................................................................... 27 6.3 Management Plans...................................................................................................... 32 6.4 Proposed Monitoring Arrangements............................................................................ 32 Tables Table 2.1: Relevant Cumulative Developments ...................................................................................... 6 Table 3.1: Internal Subdivisions .............................................................................................................. 8 Table 3.2: Proposed Development Quantum - Commercial and Light Industrial .................................... 9 Table 4.1: Generic Significance Criteria ................................................................................................ 12 Table 6.1 – Summary of Proposed Mitigation Measures ...................................................................... 28 Page 142
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 1 1 Introduction 1.1 Introduction This document is the Non-Technical Summary (NTS) of an Environmental Statement (ES) which has been prepared by Stantec UK Ltd (Stantec)1 to support land acquisition by West Dunbartonshire Council (WDC) and accompany an application for planning permission in principle (PPiP) in respect of the Exxon Site Development Project (‘the proposed development’) on land at and adjacent to the former Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling (‘the site’) in West Dunbartonshire. West Dunbartonshire Council (WDC) are also the relevant determining authority for the PPiP application, and in this role are hereby referred to as ‘the Council’ throughout this NTS. The ES has been prepared by Stantec on behalf the Applicant, with input from technical assessment specialists as detailed within ES Volume 1. 1.2 The EIA, ES and Related Documents This NTS provides a summary using non-technical language of the findings of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) undertaken for the proposed development. It has been prepared under the Town and Country Planning (Environmental Impact Assessment) (Scotland) Regulations 2011 (‘the EIA Regulations’) as an EIA Scoping Opinion (PREAPP15/034) was adopted by WDC for the proposed development in 2015. Running concurrently with the design process, the EIA has sought to: Identify the likely environmental effects of the proposed development; Define appropriate design and construction measures, and good practice to mitigate likely significant adverse environmental effects and maximise opportunities for environmental enhancements resulting from the construction and operation of the proposed development; and Determine the level and significance in the context of the EIA Regulations of the likely residual environmental effects from the proposed development remaining after all the proposed mitigation and enhancement have been considered. The ES comprises the following volumes: Volume 1 – Main Text; Volume 2 – Appendices: and, This Non-Technical Summary (NTS). All figures are included in Volume 2 – Appendices, with the key EIA figures also included in this NTS as Appendix A. The other principal documents submitted with the planning application include: Planning Application Drawings; ePlanning Application Forms and Landownership Certificate; Transport Assessment; Flood Risk Assessment; and, Habitats Regulations Appraisal – Appropriate Assessment Report. 1.3 Project Team The organisations involved in the preparation of the ES and the undertaking of individual topic assessments provided in ES Volume 1 and summarised in this NTS are listed below: 1 Formerly Peter Brett Associates LLP Page 143
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 2 Stantec – Project Management, EIA Co-ordination, Planning, Ground Conditions, Water, Hydrology & Flood Risk, Ecology, Traffic & Transport, Noise & Vibration, and Landscape & Visual; and CgMs – Heritage & Archaeology. In accordance with the EIA Regulations, a statement detailing the relevant qualifications and expertise of the individual members of the EIA project team is provided in Appendix 1.1 of ES Volume 2. In the context of the EIA Regulations, the EIA project team members are competent experts in relation to their specific contributions to this ES. Page 144
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 3 2 Site and Surrounding Area 2.1 The Site Site Location, Context and Access The site is located on the northern bank of the River Clyde and lies between the town of Dumbarton to the west and Bowling to the east as shown on Figure 2.1 - Site Location Plan. The site is bounded by the River Clyde, the Glasgow to Dunbartonshire and Argyll railway line, and the A82 Trunk Road. Figure 2.1 - Site Location Plan shows the red and blue lines which form the basis of the PPiP application submitted for the proposed development: The site area (red line boundary) which is subject to a PPiP application for the proposed development extends to approximately 56 hectares (ha). The area includes open space areas where no development is presently proposed, meaning that the actual proposed development footprint is substantially smaller; The site area (red line boundary) evolved throughout the design process, with all EIA reporting for the proposed development based on a 62.3ha red line boundary defined at EIA Design Freeze in March 2019. Minor refinements (reductions) were made to the site area prior to PPiP application submission in order to confirm all proposed development would take place at or above Mean High Water Springs (MHWS), such that a marine licence would not be required; and, The blue line indicates the adjacent Milton Burn Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) which is 11.01 ha in area. This forms part of the former Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling and will be acquired by WDC as part of the site acquisition from Esso, although no development is proposed here. Taking account of other land at the former Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling, the wider area (which following land acquisition by WDC will be) under the control of the Applicant extends to approximately 75ha. For the purposes of this EIA and to assist in clarifying the approach to assessment, the site has also been separated into seven ‘Development Zones’ (Zones A, B, C, D, E, F and G) with differing existing site conditions and comprising a number of constituent sub-areas. These development zones are shown in Figure 3.1 - Parameters Plan and explained in Chapter 3 – The Proposed Development. NCN 7 runs along the northern boundary of the site and provides a local route to Bowling (0.5 miles, approximately 2 minutes’ cycle / 5 minutes’ walk) and Dumbarton (3 miles, approximately 15 minutes cycle / 1 hour walk) whilst also linking to Glasgow (12 miles, approximately 1-hour cycle) and Balloch (9 miles, approximately 45 minutes cycle) further away. Access to the site has been restricted in recent years, though there is evidence that it is still used by occasional unauthorised users, particularly the remnants of a spine road running east / west. The Glasgow-Dumbarton railway line, running immediately north of the site, acts as a barrier between the site and Milton with limited crossing opportunities. The nearest train station is located at Bowling, approximately half a mile to the east of the site. Bus services to the station include the 1A, 1B, 1E and ‘The One’ which stops on the A814 Dumbarton Road entrance to the station. There are no park and ride facilities at Bowling train station. The site is ideally situated for access to and from the Strategic Road network. The A82 provides a link east to Glasgow (12 miles, approximately 45 minutes’ drive). The M8 provides an alternative link to Glasgow and the rest of the central belt and can be accessed via the Erskine Bridge in around 5 minutes by car (5 miles) at Junction 30. From here, the M8 / A8 also links west to settlement in Inverclyde. Glasgow Airport (total of 9 miles, approximately 20 minutes’ drive) and Paisley (total of 15 miles, approximately 35 minutes’ drive) are also accessible from the M8 at Junction 30. Development Zones Page 145
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 4 The EIA has assessed land use and development activity proposed at site specific areas (Zone A - G) and the site as a whole. This is discussed in further detail in relation to the proposed development in Section 3.3 – Key Development Parameters, Zones and Sub-Areas and represented in Figures 3.1 – Parameters Plan and Figure 3.2 – Internal Subdivisions Plan within Volume 2 of the ES. Site Use and Planning History The majority of site comprises land at the former Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling, which was previously occupied and is currently owned by Esso Petroleum Company (hereafter ‘Esso’). This area was historically used as a fuel distribution terminal from the 1920’s until the 1990’s. The former terminal has been vacant and unused since decommission and clearance was completed in 2001. As a result of the site’s previous use, contamination by hydrocarbons is still present on the site. Esso has previously undertaken discrete voluntary remediation works, and a more extensive programme of works is now planned to be undertaken under planning permission DC18/013 prior to the construction of the proposed development. This implementation of DC18/013 therefore forms the Future Baseline scenario on top of which likely impacts from the proposed development have been assessed in this EIA. The proposed development is being progressed by WDC under the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal. The SBC and OBC identify the site as crucial to West Dunbartonshire’s future economic development and will make a significant contribution to economic growth across the City Region. Environmental Characteristics Relevant environmental sensitivities affecting the site and its immediate surroundings are: Contamination: the site is currently contaminated due to its historical use as the former Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling. The current landowners are undertaking voluntary remediation of the site as approved by a separate planning permission (reference: DC10/013) and site remediation is expected to be fully complete by Autumn 2021. As a result, the EIA has been prepared on the basis that these remediation works are sufficient to facilitate the construction and operation of the proposed development, and existing contamination is not considered a factor for consideration within the ES; Ecological Designations: Sections of the River Clyde foreshore and Milton Island area which are within the site boundary lie within the Inner Clyde Special Protection Area (SPA), SSSI and Ramsar Site (wetlands of international importance). These ecological designations extend immediately outwith the site; Watercourses: The River Clyde bounds the site to the south and Milton Burn bi-sects the western part of the site before discharging southwards in the Milton Island area. In addition to the River Clyde, there are several smaller watercourses which flow through/close to the site: Milton Burn, Auchentorlie Burn, and two un-named watercourses referred to as ‘West Drain’ and ‘East Drain’ throughout the ES; Flood Risk: The site is within an area of flood risk, with a high risk of flooding from both coastal inundation and fluvial flooding associated with Milton Burn identified. In addition groundwater lying close to the surface has been identified; Listed Buildings: Dunglass Castle is a Category B Listed Building which lies within the site boundary; and Topography: The topography of the site is gently sloping which broadly falls from north to south towards the River Clyde, whilst the embankment of a dismantled railway traverses the site from the north-west to the north-eastern site boundary. Levels on site range from 0m AOD to 30m AOD. These environmental sensitivities have directly informed the assessment of likely environmental effects from the proposed development as presented throughout the EIA. Page 146
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 5 2.2 The Surrounding Area The site in a strategic position on the transport network being adjacent to the A82 Trunk Road within proximity to the Erskine Bridge which provides links to the M8 and wider strategic road network. It is situated at the gateway to the Vale of Leven and Loch Lomond as well as onwards to Argyll and the Highlands, whilst also being within proximity to the Glasgow city region. It consequently offers several competitive advantages. There are three additional SSSI are located within 2 km of the site. The closest of these is Haw Craig - Glenarbuck SSSI which is 1 km north-east of the site at its closest point. This SSSI is designated for its rocky slopes and mixed ash woodland. One Local Nature Reserve (LNR), The Saltings LNR, is 2 km south-east at its closest point. It comprises regenerated woodland and meadow and is notable for its wetland habitats. In terms of non-statutory designations, there are five Local Nature Conservation Sites (LNCSs) within 2 km of the site. The nearest LNCS is Auchentorlie Wood LNCS, which is c. 200 m north of the site at its closest point. Generally, the topography surrounding the site rises to the north becoming highly undulated, whereas the landform levels off to the south of the river, where flat arable fields offer open views of the landscape. A high ridge runs broadly east to west, creating a distinctive stretch of higher ground to the north of the site. The Kilpatrick Hills ridge ascends steeply north of the site, north of Bowling and Milton, and reaches heights of around 360 m AOD, approximately 2.5 km from the site. The south facing landform falls from the Kilpatrick Hills towards to the lowlands, where the site is located on low lying land adjacent to the River Clyde estuary. South of the site, on the south side of the River Clyde, the landform begins to rise gently with Bishopton located at around 35 m AOD, approximately 2 km to the south of the site. 2.3 Cumulative Development The EIA Regulations require likely significant cumulative effects from a development proposal in combination with other relevant existing or approved developments to be identified and assessed within an ES. To be considered ‘relevant’, existing or approved developments need to be: Subject to either an extant planning permission or valid planning application (site allocations or potential future developments are not considered relevant as insufficient information and certainty is available to enable meaningful assessment); Located within 2km of the site (the Study Area adopted in many technical assessments presented in this ES); and, Of a scale and type which has the potential to directly or indirectly interact with the proposed development. Individual householder planning applications, applications to vary existing planning permissions and other minor applications with no clear relationship to the site or the proposed development were therefore excluded from further consideration. To inform this EIA a full cumulative developments search was undertaken in February 2019 and updated in September 2019, with a further minor update undertaken in March 2020. Relevant cumulative developments identified from these searches, which have been taken account of in the technical assessments presented in Chapters 6 – 13, are listed in Table 2.1 below and shown on Figure 2.2 – Cumulative Developments Plan. Of note: No relevant cumulative developments were identified to the south of the River Clyde (all are located within the WDC area); and, Existing development present within 2km of the site is considered as a receptor or impact source (as appropriate) within each technical assessment rather than as cumulative development. This includes projects currently under construction which will be completed prior to the construction of the proposed development. Page 147
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 6 Table 2.1: Relevant Cumulative Developments Planning Application Reference Overview Proposed Development (Pending Consideration DC19/163 DC19/162 Review of Minerals Permission relating to DC02/187 and amendment of Condition 2 to allow continuation of operations at Dumbuckhill Quarry beyond the current consented expiry date of 2024 (up to 2041). Approved Development DC18/013 Remediation of ground at former Esso Oil Terminal, including excavation, treatment & replacement of soils, treatment of ground water and installation of a sheet pile wall - by Esso Petroleum Company Limited (‘Esso’). DC16/175 DC17/092 Conversion and extension to former church to form 10 dwellings with associated alterations and parking. Leven Street, Dumbarton DC16/055 Alteration to existing planning permission for residential development, Castle Road, Dumbarton. DC18/207 Construction of a 250KW hydropower scheme and associated infrastructure DC15/270 DC16/116 DC16/117 DC16/262 DC16/263 DC17/186 DC17/188 DC17/041 Assorted planning permissions for the regeneration of Bowling Harbour comprising retail, commercial, leisure and residential uses, including improvement to public realm, pedestrian and vehicular access, road infrastructure, woodland management, water space strategy, car parking and associated landscaping. Table 2.1 includes planning permission DC18/013 (granted March 2019) for voluntary remediation works on land at the former Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling. This is considered relevant as whilst land subject to construction activities for the proposed development will first need to undergo suitable remediation and be determined to be suitable for use through the completion of a robust verification process, there remains the potential for other activities associated with planning permission DC18/013 (including future monitoring) to remain ongoing at the point of initial construction of the proposed development. Page 148
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 7 3 The Proposed Development 3.1 Overview The proposed development comprises the redevelopment of the former Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling and adjacent land for the erection of a commercial-led mixed-use development, as shown on Figure 3.1 – Parameters Plan and Figure 3.3 – Indicative Masterplan. The key elements of the proposed development are: Up to 44,550m2 2 commercial and light industrial development, comprising a mix of Storage & Distribution, Industrial, Business and Office space as detailed below; New link road with associated drainage and lighting infrastructure; Upgraded existing public road (A814); New junction on the A82 at Dumbuck with closure of the existing junction; Remodelled junction on the A82 at Dunglass; Enhanced routing of NCN Route 7 in the vicinity of the site; New underpass of the Glasgow – Dumbarton Railway at the western access to the site; Remodelled railway overbridge at the eastern access to the site; Flood mitigation works; Environmental mitigation works (but not remediation); and Site drainage works. The proposed development represents the outcome of a detailed masterplanning exercise which has been undertaken to demonstrate the capacity of the site, accommodate existing environmental characteristics and provide new transport infrastructure to meet identified local needs. The development capacity of the site is outlined on an illustrative basis in Figure 3.3 – Indicative Masterplan. 3.2 Key Physical Characteristics Key Development Parameters, Zones and Sub-Areas As shown on Figure 3.1 - Parameters Plan the site has been divided into seven ‘Development Zones (Zones A, B, C, D, E, F and G) and a number of constituent sub-areas relating to historic site uses are also shown on Figure 3.2 – Internal Subdivisions Plan. The development zones have been defined for the purposes of this EIA in relation to clusters of similar proposed end- uses as illustrated on Figure 3.3 – Indicative Masterplan. For each zone, a set of parameters for development has been defined within which there is flexibility in the final design and layout of buildings. Key development parameters are highlighted in Table 3.1 below. Whilst each key element will be implemented in accordance with Figure 3.1 - Parameters Plan, they will also be subject to further detailed design and consenting. Following the granting of PPiP for the proposed development, a suite of applications for the Approval of Matters Specified in Conditions (AMSC) will need to be submitted and approved in order to fully authorise the construction and operation of the proposed development. 2 The Indicative Masterplan (see Figure 3.3) developed to support the PPiP application includes specific provision for 44,512m2 of mixed commercial floorspace within the site. Reflecting the ‘in principle’ nature of the proposed development, an aggregate floorspace limit of 44,550m2 is sought in the PPiP application. No material difference in environmental effects associated with the erection and subsequent operation of the proposed development in full is considered likely. Page 149
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 8 Table 3.1: Internal Subdivisions Development Zone Esso Land ‘Internal Subdivisions’ Proposed Land Use Key Development Parameters Zone A: Office and Industrial Eastfield (EFD) Class 2 Office 1,752m2 floorspace Total proposed commercial floorspace: 44,550m2 3 Class 5 Industrial 9,900m2 floorspace Zone B: Business Centrefield (CFD) Class 4 Commercial 7,860m2 floorspace Zone C: Storage & Distribution Westfield A (WFA) Westfield B (WFB) Southern part of Westfield C (WFC) Class 6 Storage & Distribution 25,000m2 floorspace Zone D: Landscaping Northern part of WFC Western edge of WFA Landscaping and public realm LVIA and Ecology ES chapters jointly develop design principles for this area and identify the need for a Landscape Framework to be prepared to inform detailed design (at AMSC stage). Zone E: Open Space & Green Corridor Greenfield (GFD) Northfield (NFD) No physical development proposed – to be left as open space and landscaped Green Corridor (including for maintenance access) Zone F (corridor based) Parts of: NFD, WFC, WFB, CFD, EFD and GFD Transport & Drainage Infrastructure • 1.95km new spine road with associated drainage and lighting; • 1.32km of upgraded existing public road (A814); • New junction on A82 at Dumbuck with closure of the existing junction; • Remodelled junction on the A82 at Dunglass; • Enhanced routing of 475m of National Cycle Network Route; • New underpass of Glasgow – Dumbarton Railway at western site access; • Remodelled railway overbridge at the eastern access to the site; • Flood mitigation works (including improvements to Milton Burn channel); • Site drainage works (including outfall at southern extent of Milton Burn corridor). Zone G: Dunglass Castle (protection of setting of heritage assets) Heritage Area Castle retained with no development proposed 3 The Indicative Masterplan (Figure 3.3) developed to support the PPiP application includes specific provision for 44,512m2 of mixed commercial floorspace within the site. Reflecting the ‘in principle’ nature of the proposed development, an aggregate floorspace limit of 44,550m2 is sought in the PPiP application. No material difference in environmental effects associated with the erection and subsequent operation of the proposed development in full is considered likely. Page 150
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 9 Within the development zones corresponding to land at the former Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling a series of ‘Internal Subdivision’ areas have also previously been defined by Esso in relation to their historic use, as shown on Figure 3.2 - Esso Land Internal Subdivisions Plan. It should however be noted that: As the site of the proposed development extends beyond the Esso landownership, some development zones incorporate other land, including some land already owned by WDC and other third party land which is to be acquired by WDC; and, The Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling land ownership to be acquired by WDC includes the eastern corridor of the Milton Island SSSI. This is outwith the site of the proposed development and no development works are proposed in this location. Whilst each key element will be implemented in accordance with Figure 3.1 - Parameters Plan, they will also be subject to further detailed design and consenting. Following the granting of PPiP for the proposed development, a suite of applications for the Approval of Matters Specified in Conditions (AMSC) will need to be submitted and approved in order to fully authorise the construction and operation of the proposed development. Commercial and Industrial Floorspace The proposed development includes up to approximately 44,550m2 of mixed commercial and light industrial floospace. As noted in Chapter 1, Figure 3.3 - Indicative Masterplan (which has been used to identify the likely significant environmental effects of the proposed development) includes specific provision for 44,512m2 of mixed commercial floorspace within the site. Reflecting the ‘in principle’ nature of the proposed development, an aggregate floorspace limit of 44,550m2 is sought in the PPiP application. No material difference in environmental effects associated with the erection and subsequent operation of the proposed development in full is considered likely. Based on the quantum of mixed commercial floorspace illustrated on Figure 3.3, the proposed breakdown of commercial and light industrial floorspace by use class is listed in Table 3.2. Table 3.2: Proposed Development Quantum - Commercial and Light Industrial Development Quantum Square Metres (m2) Class 2 Financial and Professional Services 1,752 Class 4 Business 7,860 Class 5 General Industry 9,900 Class 6 Distribution 25,000 Total (indicative based on above use classes) 44,512 Maximum Commercial and Industrial Floorspace (Ceiling) 44,550 Access The proposed development itself incorporates two new or upgraded junctions onto the surrounding road network, together with an internal access road, path enhancements and suitable parking provision. 3.3 Key Operational Characteristics Once constructed, the proposed development will operate as a commercial-led mixed-use development with seven ‘Internal Subdivisions’ (Zones A – G). Once operational the key characteristics of the development will be those normally associated with a commercial-led mixed-use development, anticipated to include: The undertaking of light industrial and commercial economically productive activities, with associated employment; Movement of people (workers and visitors) with associated cars, bicycles and pedestrians to, from and within the site; Movement of Heavy and Light Goods Vehicles in and out of the site making deliveries; and Landscape maintenance. Page 151
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 10 3.4 Materials, Natural Resource Usage, Emissions and Waste The construction of the proposed development will utilise land and construction materials including bricks, roofing tiles, cement, concrete, timber, asphalt, piping, etc). Soil (reused from onsite resources wherever practicable) and seeded grass or turf will also be used for landscaping purposes. Once occupied the proposed development will use non-domestic energy and utilities infrastructure. Where possible, excavated material will (depending on type) be used to backfill excavations and for site re-profiling purposes where appropriate. It is not expected that any material would be unsuitable for re-use in this way, though in the unlikely event that such material arises it will be disposed off-site in line with relevant waste disposal regulations. In the context of WDC and the Scottish Government having declared a climate emergency, the operational phase of the proposed development will be underpinned by a co-ordinated Energy Strategy. This document will set out an energy strategy for the site including opportunities to maximise energy efficiency and the potential deployment of low or zero carbon energy generating technologies. Once completed and operational, the proposed development will be serviced by a commercial waste management and recycling contractor which will be appointed by the Applicant. The proposed development has been designed to accommodate heavy goods vehicles in areas where access would be required for uplifting waste and delivering supplies. The quantity and type(s) of waste during the operational phase cannot be predicted at this stage, as this would depend on the occupiers of the proposed development and the implementation of waste management legislation unrelated to the proposed development. 3.5 Consideration of Alternatives Paragraph 4 of Part II of Schedule 4 of the EIA Regulations requires an ES to include an outline of the main alternatives considered by the applicant, indicating the main reasons for the choice made, taking into account the environmental effects. Although the EIA Regulations do not expressly require the applicant to study alternatives, the nature of certain developments and their location may make the consideration of alternative sites a material consideration. In such cases, the ES must record this consideration of alternative sites. More generally, consideration of alternatives (including alternative sites, choice of process, and the phasing of construction) is widely regarded as good practice and resulting in a more robust application for planning permission. Section 3.7 of ES Volume 1 identifies the alternatives considered, which are summarised below: No development: for example, the site remaining vacant brownfield land, a scenario that offers no benefits to the local economy and the wider context (including wider transport improvements associated with the proposed development); and Alternative forms of development: as presented within Section 3.7 of the ES Volume 1. Page 152
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 11 4 Assessment Methods 4.1 Overview of EIA EIA is a process which aims to identify a project’s likely significant environmental effects, identify mitigation measures to reduce the level of or avoid those effects, and assess the residual significance of predicted environmental effects taking account of all proposed mitigation and enhancement measures. This process helps to ensure that predicted significance effects, and the scope for reducing them, are properly understood by the public and the relevant consenting authorities before determining an application for a development proposal. The EIA Regulations emphasise that EIA is a process rather than an output and involves the following key stages: Assessment work: culminating in the preparation of an ES in accordance with information requirements prescribed by the EIA Regulations; Public consultation on the application for planning permission, the ES and any other relevant information. Consultation may be iterative rather than only occurring once during the EIA process; Examination: by the relevant authority of the information presented in the ES and other relevant information including that received through consultation; and The authority coming to a reasoned conclusion on the residual significant effects of the proposed development on the environment, prior to the determination of any related consenting application. The EIA process therefore encompasses all stages of considering environmental issues associated with projects, from initial identification of relevant issues through to assessing the residual significance of predicted environmental effects and securing required mitigation. This ensures that all required mitigation is subsequently carried out in the implementation of projects. EIA therefore directly influences the design, construction, operation and, where relevant, decommissioning of proposed projects, as well as providing information to decision makers. 4.2 EIA Screening and Scoping Having regard to the nature of the proposed development and known environmental sensitivities within and surrounding the site, the Applicant is of the view that EIA is appropriately provided in relation to the planning application for the proposed development. Consequently, the proposed development is an EIA Development under Regulation 6(c) of the EIA Regulations by virtue of the submission of the ES to accompany a planning application for the proposed development. An EIA screening request was submitted by the Applicant to West Dunbartonshire Council on 1st April 2015, to confirm whether the proposed development would constitute EIA Development and obtain clarity on the required scope of the EIA. The response received from the Council confirmed that an EIA would be required. In May 2015 a Scoping Report was submitted to West Dunbartonshire Council. This report was set out on a topic by topic basis and provided a summary of each topic proposed to be covered within a future EIA. A formal EIA Scoping Opinion was adopted by the Council in June 2015 to define the required scope of the EIA; this is provided in Appendix 4.1 of ES Volume 2. This Scoping Opinion draws upon EIA scoping consultation responses provided by relevant consultees. In accordance with the EIA Regulations and best practice, the ES is based on the EIA Scoping Opinion and includes the information which the Applicant considers to be required to inform a reasonable conclusion on the significant effects of the proposed development on the environment, taking into account current knowledge and methods of assessment. Any material departures from the EIA Scoping Opinion are robustly justified within the appropriate technical assessment chapter of the ES. Page 153
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 12 4.3 Consultation In addition to formally requesting the Council adopt an EIA Scoping Opinion in respect of the proposed development, additional consultation has been undertaken to provide information, discuss assessment methods and findings, and to agree mitigation measures and design responses. Consultation has been undertaken with stakeholders including (please not this is not an exhaustive list): Scottish Natural Heritage; Historic Environment Scotland; Royal Society for the Protection of Birds; Scottish Environmental Protection Agency; and Transport Scotland. A programme of community engagement has also been undertaken, as detailed within the statutory Pre-Application Consultation Report submitted in support of the planning application for the proposed development. 4.4 EIA Methodology Establishing Baseline Conditions A range of site surveys and data collection exercises have been used to identify current environmental conditions at the site and within the surrounding area. The surveys undertaken are reported in each of the technical assessments provided in Chapters 6 – 13 within ES Volume 1. Each environmental topic has been subject to investigation and assessment to identify and evaluate likely significant environmental effects. The survey and assessment methodologies deployed were based on recognised best practice and guidance relevant to each topic area, details of which are provided within relevant technical assessment ES chapters (Chapters 6 – 13). Impact Assessment The likely effects of the construction and operational phase of the proposed development were then characterised, taking account of impact duration and all proposed embedded mitigation, to identify the predicted magnitude of change on each sensitive receptor. Establishment of Effect Significance The approach to assigning significance to predicted environmental effects is not itself detailed within the EIA Regulations, meaning that it is necessary to develop effect significance thresholds to underpin the assessments reported in ES Volume 1. These effect level and significance thresholds are defined on a topic specific basis within the technical assessments presented in Chapters 6 – 13 of ES Volume 1, taking account of relevant regulations, guidance, standards, the advice and views of consultees, and expert judgement. All thresholds were based on the generic criteria set out in Table 4.1 below. Table 4.1: Generic Significance Criteria Level of Effect Criteria Significant Substantial These effects are assigned this level of significance as they represent key factors in the decision-making process. These effects are generally, but not exclusively, associated with sites and features of national or regional importance. A change at a district scale site or feature may also enter this category. Major These effects are likely to be important considerations at a local or district scale and may become key factors in the decision-making process. Page 154
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 13 Level of Effect Criteria Moderate These effects, while important at a local scale, are not anticipated to be key decision-making issues. Not significant Minor These effects may be raised as local issues but are unlikely to be of importance in the decision-making process. Negligible or No Effect Either no effect or effect which is beneath the level of perception, within normal bounds of variation or within the margin of forecasting error. Such effects should not be considered by the decision-maker. Effects that are described as ‘substantial’, ‘major’ or ‘moderate’ are determined to be significant, whereas effects that are described as ‘minor’ or ‘negligible’ are determined to be not significant. Mitigation and Enhancement In line with EIA best practice, the iterative EIA, planning and design processes for the proposed development have been undertaken in tandem, with close dialogue maintained between the Applicant, EIA project team, project architect and other advisors. This has allowed an overarching suite of mitigation measures and commitments to be incorporated into the proposed development from the outset, in order to both address potentially adverse effects and enhance its environmental performance. There are termed embedded mitigation measures and are identified in Section X.5 within the technical assessments presented in Chapters 6 – 13 within ES Volume 1. Where necessary to avoid likely significant adverse effects, minimise adverse effects or enhance the environmental performance of the proposed development, additional mitigation and potential enhancement measures are also identified throughout the EIA process. These measures are termed ‘further mitigation and enhancement’ and are defined within Section X.7 within the technical assessments presented in Chapters 6 – 13 within ES Volume 1. Chapter 15 – Schedule of Mitigation provides a consolidated schedule of all mitigation and enhancement measures proposed to avoid significant adverse effects and enhance beneficial effects from the construction and operation of the proposed development. Residual Effects Residual effects are the environmental effects that will remain after the incorporation of both embedded and additional mitigation measures. It is the level of these residual effects which should be considered when assessing the significance of the proposed development, rather than the unmitigated effects as unmitigated effects will not occur. For example, ‘whilst a proposed development may affect protected species, appropriate mitigation has been identified to ensure that likely significant effects on such species do not occur.’ Page 155
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 14 5 Likely Significant Effects 5.1 Overview The detailed technical assessments provided in Chapters 6 – 13 in ES Volume 1 identify the following likely significant residual effects from the construction and operation of the proposed development. In all cases, the technical assessments are based on the characteristics of the site and the surrounding area and the key parameters of the proposed development detailed in Chapter 2 – Site and Surrounding Area and Chapter 3 – The Proposed Development. Taking account of all proposed mitigation and enhancement measures, the only residual significant effects (beneficial or adverse) which are considered likely to arise from the proposed development are: Taking account of all proposed mitigation and enhancement measures (as summarised in Chapter 15), the only residual significant effects (beneficial or adverse) which are considered likely to arise from the proposed development are: Transport (Chapter 9) Operational Phase Improved accessibility and connectivity for road users from Zone F Transport Infrastructure: Moderate/Substantial Beneficial and Long-Term effect; and Improved amenity for pedestrians and cyclists from Zone F Transport Infrastructure: Moderate/Substantial Beneficial and Long-Term effect. Landscape and Visual (Chapter 12) Operational Phase Local landscape character effects experienced post 15 years of operation experienced within the site and from the Inner Clyde Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), Special Protection Area (SPA) and Ramsar site: Moderate Beneficial and Long-Term effect. The assessments presented in Chapters 6 - 13 of ES Volume 1 conclude proposed construction activities and the subsequent operation of the proposed development are also likely to result in a range of other beneficial and adverse effects, each of which would be not significant in the context of the EIA Regulations. Sections 5.2 – 5.9 below provide a non-technical summary for each of these technical assessments. Section 5.10 then summarises the assessments provided in Chapters 6 - 13 of ES Volume 1 regarding the likely impact iterations and synergistic effects from the proposed development. 5.2 Ground Conditions Chapter 6 – Ground Conditions provides an assessment of the likely effects of the proposed development on terrestrial ground conditions, considering the geology, hydrogeology and ground stability within and in the immediate vicinity of the site. The assessment also provides details of the geological conditions and the presence of potentially contaminated land and hazardous materials. The principal aspects considered within the chapter are: The likely impacts of both the construction phase and operational phase of the proposed development on the ground conditions (contamination and stability) and the associated effects on the environment and human health; and The likely impacts of the ground conditions (contamination and stability) on the proposed development and the associated effects. To assess an effect associated with ground conditions, the extent and nature of the potential hazard (a substance or situation that has the potential to cause harm or pollution) is assessed, exposure pathways (a means by which that the hazard moves along / generates exposure) are identified, and sensitive receptors or resources (an entity that is vulnerable to the potential Page 156
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 15 adverse effects of the hazard) are identified and appraised to determine their value and sensitivity to contamination related impacts. Identification of the current Baseline conditions and potential for contaminated ground to be present is based on a review of current and previous land use activities. The redevelopment site has been zoned with Low and Very Low potential for contamination for areas with no or limited contaminating landuses to High for some areas of the former Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling. The following baseline conditions have been identified through this assessment: Ground conditions – made ground, marine deposits (comprising both granular and cohesive horizons), bedrock; Water environment – the site lies on the Kinnesswood Formation permeable aquifer (moderately permeable aquifer), and the Ballagan Formation and Cochno Lava Mambe non or weak permeable aquifers. The River Clyde runs along the southern body of the site, whilst Milton Burn and Auchentorlie Burn run through the western part of the site and immediately east of the site respectively; Ecological systems – there are three ecologically important resources bordering the site boundary bordering and within the southern portion of the site: the Inner Clyde Special Protection Area (SPA), Site of Scientific Interest (SSSI) and Ramsar site. These sites are designated for non-breeding birds; Contamination – The site investigation has identified sources of potential contaminants, including asbestos, ash and fill, metals and hydrocarbons, all of which are a legacy of the site’s historic land uses; and Ground stability – the soft, loose ground – potential compressibility of materials used to infill parts of the site and the areas underlain by Raised Tidal Flat Deposits. Groundwater levels close to the surface, where ground comprises fine grained marine deposits, particularly in the western part of the site, potential for running sands is assessed as High. Six geological fault lines also cross the site. There is ground condition data for the majority of the land that comprises the former Esso Oil Terminal, Bowling and this has informed the proposed remediation by others. Following implementation of the proposed remediation the future Baseline conditions the ground conditions within the former terminal will not be detrimental to human health (noting that the proposed remediation is in the context of a commercial/industrial use without buildings and on existing topographic levels); and that will prevent or limit the entry of Hazardous Substances into the Water Environment. A number of design features and embedded mitigation measures have been incorporated into the design and construction of the proposed development to avoid, prevent or minimise significant adverse environmental effects and to enhance beneficial effects. The main elements are: Further ground investigation and monitoring will be undertaken to inform the design and option selection. It is envisaged that any soil and geology conditions revealed by the additional investigation requiring mitigation can be dealt with through design measures. Any remedial measures such as gas protection measures or provision of clean cover in areas not subject to ground level raising and used as open space areas requiring incorporation into the completed development will be defined in a remedial strategy and agreed with the regulator prior to works beginning on site; Construction activities will be carried out in full compliance with relevant legislation and guidance such as the approved codes of practice published by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE); A Construction Environmental Management Plan (CEMP) will be developed which will set out procedures to protect environmental receptors and workers during the construction phase and will include protocols to manage unforeseen ground conditions; and The movement of excavated earth and soils around the site will be undertaken under an Earthworks and Materials Movement Strategy and a CL:AIRE compliant Soil Management Plan. The CL:AIRE Definition of Waste Code of Practise (DOWCOP) requires that material proposed for re-use should not present a risk to human health or the environment. Imported Page 157
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 16 soils will conform to site specific chemical quality requirements and ensure material does not present a risk to human health or the environment. Significant residual adverse effects are not considered likely to occur and no monitoring of likely effects per se is proposed. Additional mitigation however includes further site investigation and monitoring to inform the design and option selection whilst gaining a better understanding of the ground conditions. Additionally, the movement of excavated soils around the site will be carried out under a CL:AIRE compliant Materials Management Plan. 5.3 Water, Hydrology & Flood Risk Chapter 7 – Water, Hydrology & Flood Risk provides an assessment of the likely effects of the proposed development on the water environment, which includes fluvial and tidal hydrology, flood risk, surface water drainage and water supplies. The assessment has been informed by a Flood Risk Assessment and Hydraulic Modelling Report. Methodology The principal aspects considered within this assessment are: Flood risk and the impact on the development, including baseline hydraulic modelling; Foul and surface water management; Pollution prevention; and The impact of engineering activities on the water environment. Baseline Conditions Hydrological Context The River Clyde forms the southern boundary of the site and is the principal watercourse in the area, with mudflats and saltmarshes located to the west and south of the site. The River Clyde adjacent to and downstream of the site falls within the ‘Clyde Estuary - Outer’ water body (ID: 200320) as classified under the WFD. It has been designated as a ‘Heavily Modified Water Body’ (HMWB) on account of “physical alterations that cannot be addressed without a significant impact on navigation and from an increased risk of subsidence or flooding”. The water body’s current overall status (2017) is classified as ‘Moderate’ ecological potential. In addition to the River Clyde, there are several smaller watercourses which flow through/close to the site (which are not specifically categorised under WFD). The Milton Burn flows from the hillside to the north of the site, through the village of Milton, beneath the A82 and the railway line, and through the site from north to south (between the ‘GFD’ and ‘NFD’ areas (internal sub-division Zone E)). The Milton Burn is culverted beneath the access track along the line of the former railway within the site, before discharging into the area of salt marsh and tidal mudflats at the south-western area of the site. The Auchentorlie Burn flows from the hillside north of the site, draining a small rural catchment to the east of Craigunnock Quarry. Information provided by WDC confirms that the Auchentorlie Burn does not flow through the site but flows through a culvert to the north and east of the site. The lower reaches of this watercourse flow through the adjacent ‘Scott’s Yard’ site before discharging to the River Clyde at Bowling Harbour. ‘West Drain’ is an unnamed watercourse which has been identified as flowing from a point approximately 450m north west of the site, adjacent to the public cycle path. It is suggested by a 2016 survey that the end of the channel, within the north-western area of the site, enters a piped drainage system which flows in a southerly direction, potentially passing beneath the railway line and into the River Clyde. ‘East Drain’ is an un-named watercourse which has been identified as flowing from the hillside immediately to the north of the site. A 2016 survey confirmed suggests that ‘East Drain is piped beneath the A82 and discharges into a pond area between the A82 and the railway (north of the site). There are pipes which appear to be outfall pipes from the pond area, passing beneath the cycle path adjacent to the railway, before appearing to pass beneath the railway, and possibly entering the north of the site. Page 158
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 17 Existing Drainage Key existing drainage infrastructure relevant to the site has been established from historical service plans (dated 1993), site walkover, topographical survey of the site undertaken in 2010 and 2014, and watercourse channel and hydraulic structures survey undertaken in 2016. The historical services plans of the site indicate the presence of extant drainage systems, which originate within the site, and in the case of the surface water drainage system, discharge into the River Clyde. An existing channel runs adjacent to the route of the former railway line within the site. The channel begins at the western end, fed by a small drainage channel flowing from the north. At the eastern end the channel enters a concrete section, which meanders around a ‘railway interceptor’, before entering a culvert via a sluice gate. The 1993 service plans for the site and the 2016 survey suggest that the culvert flows in a south easterly direction to an outfall into Dunglass Basin. In addition to being fed by existing drainage systems within the site, it is also possible that the flows into the channel come from the ‘East Drain’ system to the north of the railway, via the pipes which appear to pass beneath the railway. The historical service plans for the site, indicate a localised surface water drainage system shown to pass through the ‘EFD’ area from north of the site (internal sub-division Zone A) (i.e. passing beneath the railway). The drainage system may therefore have been removed as part of the remediation of the ‘EFD’ area or may still be in place. There may be further extant drainage systems within the site which have not been identified above. It should be noted that it was not confirmed whether the 1993 drainage plans were comprehensive at the time of production, whether any of the indicated assets have been removed, or whether further drainage assets were constructed at a later date. A review of Scottish Water public sewer records indicates that there are no public sewers located within the majority of the site. There is, however, a combined sewer located to the north west of the site, which serves part of the village of Milton. The system appears to drain to a small treatment plant and/or pumping station located outside of the western boundary, which appears to have an outfall/overflow into the River Clyde. Existing highways and junctions which lie within the site boundary would be expected to be served by highway drainage systems. Survey of these systems are yet to be undertaken. Tidal Flood Risk In 2005 the RCFMS was prepared on behalf of Glasgow City Council. This study included the development of an ISIS hydraulic model of the River Clyde. In order to refine understanding of the baseline tidal flood extents within the site, the River Clyde model outputs were re-processed, by PBA, against an updated 3D ground model for the site. The updated modelling confirmed that the risk to the site during the 1 in 10 (10%) annual probability tidal event is not as significant as suggested by the SEPA flood maps, with only a small area within ‘WFA’ and ‘WFC’ (internal sub-division Zones C and D) affected by tidal flooding in this scenario (apart from the Dunglass Basin and the River Clyde channel itself). Significant areas within the ‘WFA’, ‘WFB’, ‘WFC’ and ‘CFD’ areas of the site (internal sub- division Zones B-D), and a small area to the north of the former railway line in both the ‘NFD’ and ‘GFD’ areas of the site (Zone E), are located within the 1 in 200 (0.5%) annual probability tidal flood extent. These areas are therefore within the defined ‘Functional Floodplain’ associated with the River Clyde and are considered as being at a ‘high likelihood’ of tidal flooding. When the projected impacts of climate change are considered, the modelled flood extents extend towards the northern boundary of the site and indicate that the majority of the site will be impacted by a 1 in 200 (0.5%) annual probability plus climate change tidal event, with the exception of the ‘EFD’ area (internal sub-division Zone A), a small part of the ‘WFB’ and ‘WFC’ areas (internal sub-division Zone C and D), and areas of the site north of the railway. It is a requirement that the projected impacts of climate change be considered in the assessment of flood risk and the design of mitigation measures. The RCFMS included application of a +20% climate change allowance to fluvial flows. With respect to sea level rise, the climate change Page 159
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 18 allowance applied to the extreme tides in the RCFMS was based on the UKCIP02 (UK Climate Impact Projections 2002) Medium-High emissions scenario to 2080, which resulted in the application of a 300mm increase in tidal level at the downstream end of the model. Although climate change guidance has been updated since the RCFMS was undertaken, it was agreed with WDC and SEPA that the River Clyde model would not need be updated for the purposes of defining the design flood levels at the site. The peak water level local to the site, taken from the RCFMS, for the 1 in 200 (0.5%) plus climate change allowance is 4.84m AOD. Fluvial Flood Risk from Milton Burn A new 1D-2D linked hydraulic model of the Milton Burn was constructed by PBA to assess the baseline fluvial flood risk to the site. A +20% climate change allowance was applied to fluvial flows in the Milton Burn as agreed with SEPA. The model outputs for Milton Burn indicated, when compared to the ‘tidal only’ baseline results, that the fluvial influence results in no additional flooding to the ‘WFA’, ‘WFC’, ‘CFD’ and ‘EFD’ areas of the site (internal sub-division Zones A-D), but flooding within the ‘GFD’ and ‘NFD’ areas (internal sub-division Zone E) begins to occur during lower order events (i.e. during the 1 in 10 (10%) annual probability event) and is more significant during the 1 in 200 (0.5%) annual probability and the 1 in 200 (0.5%) annual probability plus climate change events. To the north of the railway line, but predominantly contained south of the A82, significant flooding from Milton Burn is predicted during all modelled events. SEPA further requested that a ‘fluvial only’ flood risk baseline be modelled, the results of which indicated similar results to those obtained from the joint tidal and fluvial modelling discussed above, demonstrating that fluvial flood risk from Milton Burn within the GFD’ and ‘NFD’ areas (internal sub-division Zone E) and to the north of the railway line (as described above) remains significant regardless of the tidal levels in the River Clyde. Fluvial Flood Risk from ‘East Drain’ Flows into the site are likely to be restricted by the capacity of the pipes passing beneath the railway line and on this basis the risk of flooding within the site is likely to be limited. Due to the relative levels of the site, the railway line and the pond area, it may possible for any water that backs up in the pond to overtop the railway line and impact upon the site in an extreme event, however this would only be expected to affect the ‘NFD’ area of the site, where no development is proposed, and notwithstanding the above, is unlikely to be more significant than flooding from the River Clyde or Milton Burn. Fluvial Flood Risk from ‘West Drain’ Anecdotal information indicates that there are recorded incidences of flooding on or near the cycle path in the north west of the site. As the catchment of ‘West Drain’ is likely to be relatively small, this suggests there may be capacity issues with the channel and/or culverts at the downstream end of ‘West Drain’. As the former underpass beneath the railway line has been infilled, there is no pathway for flood flows associated with ‘West Drain’ to impact upon the main part of the site south of the railway, but any flooding associated with ‘West Drain’ could impact on the north-western area of the site, to the north of the railway. Due to the small catchment, flooding is likely to be localised. Fluvial Flood Risk from Auchentorlie Burn In correspondence included as part of the appendices, SEPA confirmed that there is no requirement to consider Auchentorlie Burn further in the assessment of flood risk and drainage at the site. The lower reaches pass through the adjacent ‘Scott’s Yard’ site and do not enter the site boundary. Pluvial Flood Risk SEPA online Flood Map indicates that parts of the site are considered as being at a ‘medium’ (1 in 200 (0.5%) annual probability) to ‘high’ (1 in 10 (10%) annual probability) likelihood of surface water flooding. The SEPA online maps indicate this source of flooding is predominantly a risk to the ‘GFD’ and ‘NFD’ areas of the site (internal sub-division Zone E) which will remain undeveloped. Further localised areas of pluvial flood risk are indicated across other areas of the Page 160
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 19 site which would be expected to be adequately addressed by development of the site and a sustainable surface water management strategy. Groundwater Flood Risk SEPA online Flood Map shows indicative areas where there is a likelihood of groundwater flooding. According to the map, groundwater is unlikely to influence the duration and extent of flooding from within the site or its immediate vicinity. However, BGS data suggests a risk of groundwater flooding in some areas, on balance therefore, tidally influenced groundwater flooding was determined to require consideration in the proposed mitigation measures. Future Baseline Future baseline conditions are expected to replicate the current baseline conditions, as the completed remediation strategy is expected to restore site levels to the existing grade and will not affect the operation of surface water drainage systems. However, some degree of increase in tidal flooding and/or fluvial flooding may occur due to the impacts of climate change. Proposed Mitigation/Enhancement A collection of embedded and further mitigation measures has been prepared to avoid, prevent and minimise the likely significant effects on the water environment, including: Raising ground floor finished floor levels of proposed buildings to 5.5mAOD or above; Raising external ground levels (car parks and areas surrounding buildings) and access roads to 4.9mAOD or above; Provision of walls around railway underpass to a top level of 4.9mAOD or above to the east of the railway line; Provision of walls around railway underpass to a top level of 8.5mAOD or above to the west of the railway line; De-silting of a section of the Milton Burn between the A82 and a point south of the railway crossing (including beneath the structure) by a depth of approximately 200mm; Introducing a new flood relief culvert under the railway, to the north east of the proposed access road underpass; Creation of a drainage channel along the toe of the north side of the railway embankment to convey out-of-bank flood flows towards the relief culvert; Create a drainage channel along the toe of the north side of the western access road embankment to convey flood flows towards the relief culverts beneath the road; Introduce three culverts under the western access road, to the west of the Milton Burn, to allow flows to pass out into the tidal estuary; Introduce a culvert to facilitate the western access crossing over the Milton Burn; Permanent surface water drainage and SuDS to ensure sufficient treatment of surface waters prior to discharge from the development; Surface water discharges to non-tidal watercourses (if required) to be attenuated to pre- development rates; Extant surface water drainage systems within the site which may convey flows from areas of the site which are to remain undeveloped or from areas outside of the site, will be retained and/or diverted as appropriate as part of the development; Regular inspection and maintenance of flood mitigation infrastructure and drainage infrastructure will be implemented to maintain the performance over the lifetime of the development; Use of construction phase SuDS; Developing and adhering to a Construction Environmental Management Plan (CEMP) including a Pollution Prevention Plan (PPP) and appropriate Controlled Activities Regulations (CAR) Authorisations, which will include monitoring of the site activities to ensure compliance; and Page 161
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 20 Adherence to national relevant guidance, legislation and good practice in construction methods. Residual Effects Taking account of further mitigation and enhancement measures, all likely residual construction phase effects on flood risk and water quality can be reduced to slight/moderate or lower levels and would therefore be considered Not Significant in the context of the EIA Regulations. Operational phase residual effects would also be Not Significant as any risks to water quality, flooding, site users and portable water supply will be managed by the proposed flood mitigation works and the proposed on-site surface water management systems including appropriate SuDS features. 5.4 Ecology Chapter 8 – Ecology provides an assessment of the likely effects of the proposed development on sensitive ecological receptors within the site and the surrounding area. This assessment has been undertaken in line with the Guidelines for Ecological Impact Assessment issued by the Chartered Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (‘the CIEEM Guidelines’) (‘2018). In accordance with relevant statutory and policy requirements the PPiP application for the proposed development is also accompanied by a standalone Habitats Regulations Appraisal (HRA) – Appropriate Assessment Report. Baseline Conditions A series of surveys were undertaken to establish the ecological baseline conditions at the site and to identify potential sensitivities at the site. The baseline ecological conditions are the site were as follows: A number of statutory and non-statutory designated sites for nature conservation were identified within 2km of the site. This included the inner Clyde SPA/ Ramsar and SSSI which is of international/ National value; The proposed development site is dominated by bare ground considered to be of negligible nature conservation value. However, the terrestrial habitat surveys within the site identified a mosaic of the following habitats: Ephemeral/ Short Perennial, Marshy grassland (including with scrub), standing water and swamp habitats and broad-leaved woodland. These habitats were generally considered to be widespread and common habitats, however, the habitats of greatest ecological value for the site were identified to be those associated with the intertidal environment (saltmarsh and inter-tidal mudflats) which have an internationally restricted distribution; and A number of protected/ notable species were identified to use the site and its surroundings. Overwintering birds, commuting/ foraging bats and otters on site were identified as potentially being ecologically significant at the site. In addition, the site was also identified as potentially being important for a variety of invertebrate taxa. baseline study identified the following ecological features. The potential impacts of the proposed development were assessed: Inner Clyde Special Protection Area (SPA), Ramsar (wintering redshank population – qualifying feature); Inner Clyde SSSI (non SPA/Ramsar features) (wintering birds and saltmarsh habitats); On -site Habitats: Ephemeral/ Short Perennial, Marshy grassland (including with scrub), standing water and swamp habitats and broad-leaved woodland; Wintering birds in Terrestrial Habitats On Site - Non-SPA/ SSSI Species; Breeding Bird – On site; Otter; Invertebrates; and Bats (Foraging and commuting). Page 162
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 21 Mitigation and Enhancement A number of mitigation measures have been incorporated into the design, construction and operational phases of the proposed development to avoid significant adverse environmental effects on sensitive ecological receptors. These cover the following main themes: Protection of ecologically sensitive features and retained vegetation; Development and implementation of a Construction Environmental Management Plan, to include measures and procedures for: o Details of important ecological features/ habitats, how they are to be protected; o Appointment of an Ecological Clerk of Works (ECoW) to undertake regular environmental monitoring of site; o Details of update ecological surveys that may be required; o Where further vegetation clearance is required prior to the commencement of construction works, clearance will be conducted in the winter months where possible. The Ecological Clerk of Works will provide input on the appropriate approach; o Implementation of best practice mitigation measures in relation to pollution prevention control (i.e. dust and silt control, oils, fuels/ materials storage and pollution prevention and control); o Implementation of an ecologically informed lighting strategy; and o Incorporation of sensitive timing and adaptation of working methods to minimise disturbance to wildlife. Detailed design of new road and drainage to have cognizance of relevant ecological interests, in particular to allow hydrological permeability along the road. The culvert will also require to be designed to allow free movement of otters along the Milton Burn; Incorporation of green buffers and corridors to provide/maintain ecological connectivity along the waters edge, to provide separation of people and the Inner Clyde SPA/ Ramsar/SSSI and to soften the visual effects of the proposed development and screen the sensitive ecological features associated with the Clyde from potentially disturbing activities; Maintenance and/or creation of conditions suitable for saltmarsh within areas south of the new road; Sensitive management of Milton Burn; and Development and implementation of a detailed Landscape Framework. Residual Effects Taking account of all proposed mitigation and enhancement measures, no residual likely significant ecological effects (in CIEEM and EIA terms) were identified through ecological impact assessment undertaken for the proposed development. It is important to note that a separate HRA has been carried out to assess likely significant effects and any likely adverse effects on relevant European Sites, as detailed in the submitted HRA Appropriate Assessment Report. This identifies a series of Likely Significant Effects (in HRA terms only) on the qualifying features of the Inner Clyde SPA & Ramsar Site but concludes that, taking account of proposed mitigation (and enhancement) measures, there would be no adverse effects (in HRA terms) on the integrity of these European Sites. 5.5 Traffic & Transport Chapter 9 – Traffic & Transport provides an assessment of the likely effects of the proposed development on traffic, transport and access. The assessment builds upon a Transport Assessment provided in Appendix 9.2. The Transport Assessment contains a more detailed analysis of predicted changes in traffic flows and travel patterns resulting from the proposed development. In accordance with relevant policy requirements and guidelines, the assessment identifies and examines the sensitivity of receptors compromising he users of key links within the local road Page 163
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 22 network surrounding the site. With the adoption of a Construction Traffic Management Plan (CTMP) as part of a wider Construction Environmental Management Plan (CEMP), the assessment concludes that the construction phases of the proposed development is not likely to result in any significant effects on identified receptors. To identify likely operational traffic effects from the proposed development on the identified receptors, consideration was given to the predicted percentage change in traffic flows on selected links within the local road network. Other factors including the existing level of base flows and whether the proposed development would have any road safety implications were also take account of in order to determine the level and thus EIA significance of likely operational phase effects. The assessment concludes that predicted that the construction and operational phases of the proposed development are not likely to generate traffic flows of a level that would be likely to trigger significant traffic effects within the context of the EIA Regulations. In all cases, the assessed roads and junctions are considered likely to experience only Slight Adverse effects from traffic generated by the proposed development. The development of on-site paths and proposed contributions to the development of off-site paths is however likely to result in a Moderate Beneficial effect on the local walking and cycling network, which would be significant in the context of the EIA Regulations. 5.6 Air Quality Chapter 10 – Air Quality provides an assessment of the likely effects of the proposed development on local air quality. The assessment was undertaken in accordance with guidance from the Institute of Air Quality Management (IAQM) and national and local policy. The air quality effects associated with the construction and operation phases of the proposed development have been assessed. The chapter described the existing baseline air quality close to the proposed development and assessed the impact of the construction and operation of the proposed development on local air quality. The construction phase impacts have been assessed in accordance with the IAQM guidance on the assessment of dust from demolition and construction and has found that following implementation of the embedded mitigation measures in the form of a CEMP, which would include all mitigation measures for low risk sites as set out within the IAQM guidance, the impact of the construction phase would not be significant. The impacts of traffic generated by the operational development has been predicted using detailed dispersion modelling and in accordance with current air quality planning guidance published by EPUK and IAQM. The assessment has considered impacts on sensitive human receptors (residential and educational receptors) and designated ecological habitats within 250 m of the road links identified by the transport consultants (PBA) within the vicinity of the Site. The assessment has concluded that impacts on both human and ecological receptors would be negligible as a result of additional vehicle movements on the adjacent road network. No further mitigation measures are therefore required beyond those embedded within the proposed development. Overall, the operational air quality effects of the proposed development are judged to be not significant within the context of the EIA Regulations. 5.7 Noise & Vibration Chapter 11 – Noise & Vibration provides an assessment of the likely effects of noise and vibration effects of the construction and operational proposed development on the sound and vibration climate at noise sensitive receptors around the site. An unattended environmental sound survey was undertaken at three locations around the proposed development site in 2016 in order to establish the existing sound climate. Noise impacts associated with the construction phase could impact on nearby properties. Therefore, mitigation measures should be incorporated through the Construction Environmental Management Plan to minimise the impacts. This should include use of best practicable measures. With these measures in place the residual impact would be deemed as negligible. Traffic flows associated with the development (including cumulative traffic flows) have been assessed to determine the impact on the existing road network and the potential increase of Page 164
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 23 noise on existing receptors. The level of residual impact that development traffic is likely to have on existing receptors is deemed to be negligible. With the use of suitably worded conditions and appropriate mitigation, plant noise emissions form the proposed development are unlikely to have an impact on existing receptors and is deemed to be negligible. The assessment demonstrates that with the adoption of appropriate mitigation measures, the proposed development site is unlikely to be subject to, or result in, any significant noise or vibration effects. 5.8 Landscape & Visual Chapter 12 – Landscape & Visual provides and assessment of the likely landscape and visual effects of the proposed development. The LVIA has been carried out by experienced Chartered Landscape Architects in accordance with appropriate industry standard guidance and in accordance with a tried and tested methodology. It has been informed by consultation with statutory consultees, desktop analysis and site survey. The site in general is a large expanse of flat reclaimed bare ground generally consisting of demolition rubble with areas of gravel ephemeral grass, regenerated scrub and young trees. Most of the site is degraded and Zones A, B and C is currently undergoing soil remediation. However, Zone E is covered with a mixture of grassland, woodland and marshy grassland in the western part with denser scrub in the eastern part. There are also groups of mature trees and woodland within field (part of Zone F) between the North Clyde railway and the A814 Glasgow Road/A82 and along disused railway line and along the eastern boundary. There are linear group of trees and shrubs associated with the North Clyde railway line and a belt of mature broadleaved trees along the eastern boundary of Zone A. There are open views across the site to the south across the River Clyde to higher moorland and within Zone G Dunglass Castle and the Obelisk Memorial, both listed buildings are positioned on a rocky cliff next to the river. The landscape and visual embedded mitigation comprise an integrated landscape and ecology approach, which includes the following key principles: Construction Phase The implementation of a Construction Environmental Management Plan (CEMP). Of relevance to this assessment, the CEMP will include measures and procedures regarding the management of construction traffic, working hours and identification of appropriate locations for siting of compounds and stockpiles. The CEMP will also specify the use of 2 metre hoardings and perimeter mounding to screen low-level activity where it forms a significant part of a view from an identified landscape or visual receptor; The implementation of a Construction Traffic Management Plan (CTMP). Of relevance to this assessment, the CTMP will include measures and procedures to allow for continuity of access along local roads and the NCN7. As detailed further in Chapter 9 – Transport, a temporary dedicated cycle crossing point and localised diversion will be installed at the north east corner of the site during the construction of Access East. A phased approach and localised diversions will be adopted during the construction of Access West, thereby maintaining a continuous route for both cyclists and road users; and Identification of trees, tree groups and hedges that require removal, protection for those to be retained close to the works, and proposals for reinstatement detailed in plans. All works will be undertaken to British Standards. Stockpiled soils will be protected, traffic would be managed, and the siting and height of temporary buildings, cabins, equipment and lighting carefully considered to minimise visual effects. Operational Phase Siting - selection of a derelict brownfield former industrial site in need of redevelopment within a wider area where the existing character is influenced by current industrial development and where there is a tradition of industrial/commercial development associated with the River Clyde; Page 165
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 24 Maximum height of proposed buildings limited to 11m to minimise visual effects (the ZTV was calculated on the basis of this parameter); Design features as outlined within the submitted Design and Access Statement and indicative Masterplan; Detailed design of proposed buildings and structures will be informed by massing studies, the development of lighting, biodiversity and landscaping strategies, public consultation, and feedback from the West Dunbartonshire Place & Design Panel. In particular: o Sensitive lighting design to reduce light spillage and glare; o Sensitive design of new relief drainage culverts and enhancement of Milton Burn culvert (under new road) to blend into the wetland landscape; o Retention of existing trees and vegetation where practicable, that is ecologically or visually important - specifically within Zones D and E, adjacent to Dunglass Castle and Milton Burn; o Creation of a green buffer along the edges of Zone F (adjacent to the proposed carriageways and junctions), including native tree and shrub planting and the provision of wildflower meadows planting to enhance both the landscape and ecological connectivity; o Salt marsh planting within cleared open ‘glade’ areas south of the new road (Zone F) adjacent to or within the Milton SSSI; o Creation of an attractive a 15m open frontage along the river (Zone E) which allows for pedestrian connectivity and views across the river. The planting of new native trees and shrubs within open space to sensitively provide some screening/softening effects of the new development and to provide/maintain ecological connectivity along the waters’ edge; o Sensitive management of Milton Burn along the edges of Zone F (within Milton Island SSSI), including new riparian and salt marsh planting to enhance wetland landscape; o Creation of a naturalistic wooded setting along waterfront to Zone A to include extensive areas of native tree and shrub planting. The creation of attractive formal landscape within Zones B & C around the new buildings with pockets of native planting providing some biodiversity interest, as illustrated on the Site Masterplan 30953/3503/001 Rev C; and o Provision of connections to the NCN7 at both ends of the site, with section of NCN7 running continuously through the site upgraded to include improved crossing facilities for pedestrians and cyclists on the A814 (toucan crossing) and a 3.0m shared footway. Two toucan crossings will also be provided to the west of the site. Sustrans have been consulted on the design of the route and agreed it is acceptable to them. During operation, the landscape assessment identified long term, direct, adverse effects of a moderate level of significance upon the Inner Clyde Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), Special Protection Area (SPA) and RAMSAR and local landscape character of the site. Long term, adverse effects upon most landscape features and elements - district landscape character area, the trees and vegetation within the site, pond, watercourses and wetland habitat and sections of the PRoW, NCN Route 7 and Core Path were assessed as being minor adverse, and therefore not significant. During construction the visual assessment identified temporary, direct, adverse visual effects: With a moderate level of significance assessed for VP3: Colquhoun Road. This is due to the tree removals associated with the new modification works at the new upgraded A82/A814 junctions which would form a large part of these short-term views particularly close to this junction; With a moderate level of significance assessed for VP7: Core Path at Dove Cottage. This is due to construction activities of the new buildings along the water frontage on the opposite bank of the River Clyde which would be clearly perceptible; With a minor level of significance for most representative views including VP1, VP2, VP4, VP5 and VP6; and Page 166
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 25 With a negligible level of significance for VP8 and VP9. During operation, the visual assessment identified long term, direct, adverse effects: With a moderate level of significance assessed for VP7: Core Path at Dove Cottage. This is due to distant views of the new buildings along the water frontage on the opposite bank of the River Clyde which are perceivable from these high sensitivity receptors; With a minor level of significance is assessed for VP3: Colquhoun Road. This is due close views of the upgraded A82/A814 junction and new buildings visible in the middle distance from some elevated properties within Milton which likely to be perceivable within open and wide views across the river; With a minor level of significance for most representative views including VP1, VP2, VP3, VP4, VP5 and VP6; and With a negligible level of significance for VP8 and VP9. At 15 years after planting, the landscape assessment identified long term, direct, beneficial effects: With a moderate level of significance upon the Inner Clyde Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), Special Protection Area (SPA) and RAMSAR and local landscape character of the site and Local Landscape Character of the site; and With a minor level of significance upon LCA 9: Green Corridors and Unit 9a: River Clyde, Trees and vegetation within the Site, Ponds, watercourses and wetland habitat within the Site and the Public Rights of Way and Cycle Routes within the site. At 15 years after planting, the visual assessment identified long term, direct, beneficial effects: With a moderate level of significance assessed for VP7: Core Path at Dove Cottage; With a minor level of significance for most representative views including VP1, VP2, VP3, VP4, VP5 and VP6; and With a negligible level of significance for VP8 and VP9. 5.9 Archaeology & Heritage Chapter 13 – Archaeology & Heritage provides an assessment of the likely effects of the proposed development upon cultural heritage assets. Specifically, it considers the effects relating to the setting of designated heritage assets (Scheduled Monuments, Listed Buildings, Inventory Gardens and Designated Landscapes, Inventory Battlefields and Conservation Areas). The chapter draws upon the results of a desk-based assessment that has gathered data from various sources to identify potentially affected assets and characterise the archaeological potential of the site. This desk-based work has been verified and augmented through a walkover survey. In line with relevant guidance, the potential effects of the proposed development have been assessed with regard to the change in the affected assets’ cultural significance. Two Category B Listed Buildings lie within Zone G of the site: Dunglass Castle and the adjacent Obelisk Memorial to Henry Bell. No works affecting the physical fabric of these is proposed, but the development of the site will change their setting. The current design includes embedded mitigation measures to preserve the setting of these and it is considered that the proposed development will not have a significant effect in respect of the Listed Buildings. The proposed development will not substantively affect the setting of any designated assets in the surrounding area. Aside from the Listed Buildings, no heritage assets have been recorded previously within the site. The baseline study has established that the greater part of the site lay in the intertidal zone until its reclamation in a series of phases starting in the late 18th/early 19th century. These reclaimed areas were latterly occupied by a fuel depot. This has been demolished and a programme of remediation has recently received planning consent. As formerly intertidal land, the reclaimed areas have low archaeological potential. This will be further reduced by the consented remediation works. Attached to the planning consent for the remediation works is a condition requiring a programme of archaeological works. This will result in the recording and Page 167
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 26 excavation of any archaeology present in the areas of remediation ahead, rendering these areas archaeologically sterile. Nevertheless, an area of elevated archaeological potential has been identified at the western end of the site as a number of Roman artefacts have been recorded in this vicinity. Ground disturbance in this area will be limited, but there is potential for previously unrecorded archaeology to be affected. This potential will be addressed through a programme of archaeological works that will allow for the identification and appropriate recording of any archaeology in the construction footprint. This will offset the physical loss of such remains and there will be no significant residual effects. 5.10 Environmental Interactions Chapter 13 – Environmental Interactions builds upon the individual technical assessments presented in Chapters 6 – 13 to provide an assessment of likely impact interactions and synergistic effects from the construction and operation of the proposed development. The assessment concludes that the operational phase of the proposed development is likely to generate a limited number of significant beneficial environmental and amenity effects, with no significant adverse effects predicted. Page 168
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Environmental Statement Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 27 6 Mitigation and Monitoring Requirements Chapter 15 of ES Volume 1 provides a consolidated schedule of all mitigation and enhancement measures proposed to avoid significant adverse effects and enhance beneficial effects from the construction and operation of the proposed development. It is reproduced within this NTS in full as the measures are reported in a summary form and in nontechnical language. The schedule of mitigation is provided to assist the Council as the relevant local planning authority and EIA competent authority to secure proposed mitigation measures and monitoring arrangements within any planning permission granted for the proposed development. 6.2 Proposed Mitigation Measures Table 6.1 below summarises all mitigation and enhancement measures committed to by the Applicant for the construction and operational phases of the proposed development. This includes reference to specific sections of ES Volume 1 – Main Text where the full details of proposed mitigation and enhancement measures are set out. Page 169
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Environmental Statement: Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 28 Table 6.1 – Summary of Proposed Mitigation Measures Mitigation / Enhancement Measure Type Proposed Measures Ground Conditions 1. Development and implementation of detailed construction phase protocols to identify and manage any unforeseen ground conditions (contamination or ground instability). 2. Post remediation monitoring of ground gases and vapours to confirm residual gas regime. This will determine potential need for welfare and office accommodation to be raised off the ground to mitigate ground gas ingress and/or incorporation of gas protection measures in the permanent buildings. 3. Intrusive investigations on areas of unknown ground to inform detailed design, in particular for Access East and Access West in Zone F and for other proposed infrastructure. Further ground investigation to be undertaken to inform road and building design as required. As the consented voluntary remediation (Esso) does not consider use of the site as public open space, supplementary investigation, assessment and mitigation if needed may be required in any proposed open space areas not subject to ground level raising. 4. Testing and quality specification of imported clean materials for use in ground raising. Movement of excavated soils to be undertaken under a CL:AIRE compliant Materials Management Plan which will incorporate importation and re-use criteria. The CL:AIRE code of practice requires demonstration of consultation and agreement with the regulators. 5. Preparation and implementation of Earthworks and Materials Movement Strategy (Section 6.6 refers). 6. Implementation of safe and suitable piling and other ground improvement techniques as required, taking account of ground conditions and ground stability risks. 7. Provision of Foundation Works Risk Assessment (FWRA) following confirmation of proposed foundation solution and appointment of contractor. 8. Type of construction materials to be in-ground (potentially subjected to aggressive ground conditions) to be specified with due consideration to the ground conditions and detailed design layout. Design Features 9. Development in accordance with submitted planning application drawings, in particular Figure 3.1 – Parameters Plan. 10. Development and implementation of Energy Strategy for the site (Section 3.4 refers). 11. Adoption of avoidance and mitigation measures (in accordance with Mitigation Hierarchy) to avoid adverse effects on Inner Clyde SPA, SSSI and Ramsar Site qualifying and special interests (as detailed in Sections 8.6 and 8.8). Measures also summarised within the submitted HRA Appropriate Assessment Report. 12. Provision of connections to the NCN7 at both ends of the site, with section of NCN7 running continuously through the site upgraded to include improved crossing facilities for pedestrians and cyclists on the A814 (toucan crossing) and a 3.0m shared footway. 13. Two toucan crossings to be provided west of the site. Flooding and Drainage 14. Works within the water environment to be subject to CAR Authorisation (SEPA). 15. Implementation of Flood Risk Management Strategy as per Appendix 7.2 – FRA, including: i. Maintenance of Green Corridor along River Clyde frontage in Zone E. Page 170
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Environmental Statement: Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 29 Mitigation / Enhancement Measure Type Proposed Measures ii. Channel clearing and improvement/maintenance works to Milton Burn. iii. Ground and finished floor levels and other flood mitigation measures as specified in Chapter 7 and Figure 7.2 - Conceptual Flood Mitigation Strategy. 16. Surface water management strategy as specified in Chapter 7 and Figure 7.3 - Conceptual Surface Water Management Areas. 17. Development and implementation of construction phase Flood Response Plan. Construction Phase Pollution Prevention Measures Proposed Development 18. Development and implementation of Construction Environmental Management Plan (CEMP), to include measures and procedures for: iv. Contractor management. v. Materials, chemicals and hazardous substances storage. vi. Construction traffic and parking management. vii. Dust Management Plan including relevant construction dust mitigation measures as specified in IAQM Guidance. viii. Matters relating to dust and silt control, oils, fuels and materials storage, pollution prevention and control, and the protection of hydrological receptors; ix. Deployment of suitable containment systems and suitable treatment or settlement facilities; x. Construction Drainage Plan including use of construction phase SuDS, incorporating appropriate treatment prior to discharge to the water environment. SuDS measures to be installed prior to the main construction activities, including any earthworks. Any runoff from earthworks and stockpiles to be routed through the appropriate construction SuDS measures prior to discharge to the water environment. xi. Excavations to be left open for the minimum period required to avoid ingress of water, minimise erosion and the need for de-watering in compliance with CAR General Binding Rule 11. Drainage or pumping from excavations to be minimised through design. Temporary cut-off drains to be installed, if required to prevent surface water runoff entering excavations. xii. Access tracks to incorporate appropriate drainage measures routed to the construction SuDS measures prior to discharge. xiii. Regular inspection of surface water management measures and maintenance. xiv. Clean runoff from vegetated areas or offsite to be kept clean and diverted around the construction works to avoid mixing with sediment laden water. xv. Oil storage in accordance with General Binding Rules (GBRs) 26, 27, and 28 Provision of spill kits and use of drip trays for any refuelling activities. xvi. Regular inspection and maintenance of vehicles, tanks and bunds. Page 171
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Environmental Statement: Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 30 Mitigation / Enhancement Measure Type Proposed Measures 19. Concrete and mortar preparation to be sited on impermeable areas at least 10m away from watercourses or surface water drains. 20. Consideration to provision of oil separator if required. 21. Adoption of specific management measures for short-term storage and testing of any suspected contaminated material encounter (post remediation). 22. Development and implementation of Soil Management Plan (and associated Earthworks and Materials Movement Strategy – see above), including procedures for: i. Areas stripped of hardstandings, earth and vegetation will be kept to a minimum at any one time. ii. Soil loss and erosion will be minimised through careful storage, reinstatement and landscaping. iii. Stockpiles will be placed in areas of minimal risk of slippage or erosion from drainage and will not be located within 20m of the ‘West Drain’, Milton Burn or River Clyde. 23. Construction site management and activities to be sited and undertaken in accordance with relevant guidance within BS5228-1:2009+A1:2014 to minimise noise and vibration effects. 24. Further quantitative noise and vibration assessments to be undertaken as required to inform detailed design at AMSC stage. 25. Regular inspection and maintenance of watercourse channels, crossings, flood mitigation assets, surface water drainage infrastructure and SuDS features. 26. Discharge of foul effluent to Scottish Water public sewer network for conveyance and treatment by Scottish Water. 27. Details of important ecological features/ habitats, if necessary informed by update ecological surveys; 28. Details of how important ecological features/ habitats are to be protected including procedures for site clearance, specification for buffer zones and ecological fencing. Construction Phase Ecological Mitigation Measures (additional to Pollution Prevention) 29. Appointment of ECoW for the duration of construction works to undertake regular monitoring of site operations compliance with nature conservation legislation and policy, as detailed in Chapter 8 - Ecology. 30. Above-ground vegetation clearance to be conducted in the winter months under the supervision and guidance of the appointed ECoW. 31. Development and implementation of Otter Mitigation Strategy. 32. Nesting brid checks prior to vegetation removal. 33. Appropriate timing and phasing of noisy construction activities and installation of visual screens and noise barriers to avoid or minimise disturbance to the over wintering redshank and common tern breeding colony and passage/ wintering birds. 34. Retained trees on site and those present along the site boundary to be protected through the establishment of appropriate buffer zones during construction in line with BS 5837:2012. 35. Implementation of an ecologically informed lighting strategy. Construction Phase Other Mitigation Measures Proposed Development Page 172
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Environmental Statement: Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 31 Mitigation / Enhancement Measure Type Proposed Measures 36. Construction activities to be carried out in full compliance with appropriate health and safety legislation, guidance documents and approved codes of practice published by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). 37. Adoption of safe working practices and use of appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) in accordance with appropriate RAMS 38. Development and implementation of Construction Traffic Management Plan (CTMP), to include: i. Construction traffic routing, site access/deliveries, parking, contractor management, parking, fuels and materials storage, standard dust and noise suppression techniques, and standard pollution prevention and control techniques. ii. Staff parking and plant/materials storage to be accommodated on suitable land within the site. iii. Measures and procedures to allow for continuity of access along local roads and the NCN7 during construction, as detailed in Chapter 9. Landscape, Ecology and Heritage Operational Mitigation and Enhancement Measures 39. Incorporation of green buffers and retention and protection of existing vegetation as reflected on Figures 3.1 – Parameters Plan and 3.3 - Indicative Masterplan. 40. Development and implementation of detailed Landscape Framework as detailed in Chapters 8 – Ecology and 12 - Landscape and Visual Impacts. This includes measures to underpin the detailed design, construction and operation of the proposed development. 41. Sensitive management and enhancement of Milton Burn along the edges of Zone F. 42. Identification of trees, tree groups and hedges that require removal, protection for those to be retained close to the works, and proposals for reinstatement 43. Maximum height of proposed buildings limited to 11m to minimise visual effects. 44. Design features as outlined on Figure 3.3 - Indicative Masterplan. 45. Detailed design of proposed buildings and structures to be informed by massing studies, the development of lighting, biodiversity and landscaping strategies, public consultation, and feedback from the West Dunbartonshire Place & Design Panel – as detailed in Chapter 8 – Ecology and Chapter 12 - Landscape and Visual Impacts. 46. Development and roads to be set back from listed Dunglass Castle and Obelisk Monument by 15m Green Corridor with tree planting (Zones E and F). 47. Programme of archaeological works in Zone F prior to constriction – refer to Chapter 13 – Archaeology and Heritage. Operational Phase Other Mitigation Measures 48. Provision of a 15m wide area of open space along the bank of the Clyde (Zone E) and around the Dunglass Castle and Obelisk Monument (Zone G), with landscape planting as illustrated on Figure 3.3 – Indicative Masterplan. 49. Development and implementation of Landscaping Framework, to include appropriate habitat enhancement and features to enhance the site for invertebrates. 50. Development and implementation of a Travel Plan to promote sustainable travel choices by staff and visitors. Page 173
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Environmental Statement: Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 32 6.3 Management Plans As highlighted in bold within Table 15.1 above, many of the proposed mitigation and enhancement measures will be developed and implemented through a suite of management plans and method statements: Design and Construction Phase Construction Drainage Plan; Landscape Framework; Otter Mitigation Strategy; Construction Environmental Management Plan (CEMP); Soil Management Plan; Earthworks and Materials Movement Strategy; Construction Traffic Management Plan (CTMP); Construction Flood Response Plan Operational Phase Energy Strategy; and, Travel Plan. In accordance with the EIA Regulations, it is expected that conditions may be attached to any planning permission granted for the proposed development requiring these plans and statements to be submitted by the Applicant, approved by WDC thereafter implemented during the construction and operational phases of the proposed development as appropriate. To allow for a potential need to vary the individual measures or procedures detailed in these management plans and statements after their approval (for example, to account for development phasing or to address potential unforeseen changes in site conditions or environmental sensitivities during the construction process), a suitable worded variation clause should be included in all relevant planning conditions. Subject to written consent from WDC, this would enable the above management plans to be varied after their initial approval and thereafter for the revised management plans to be implemented. 6.4 Proposed Monitoring Arrangements For the reasons detailed in Subsection X.10 of the technical assessments presented in Chapters 6 – 13, no monitoring is considered to be proportionate or required specifically in relation to the likely residual effects of the proposed development. Page 174
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Environmental Statement: Non-Technical Summary West Dunbartonshire Council - Exxon Site development Project Design with community in mind 33 Appendix A Key EIA Figures Figure 2.1 – Site Location Plan Figure 2.2 – Cumulative Developments Plan Figure 3.1 – Parameters Plan Figure 3.2 – Internal Subdivisions Plan. Figure 3.3 – Indicative Masterplan Page 175
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Tarmac Tarmac Tarmac Concrete Concrete Ramp Grass Fender Fender Fender Fender Fender Concrete Ramp Concrete Ramp C o n c r e t e R e t a i n i n g W a l l C o n c r e t e R e t a i n i n g W a l l C o n c r e t e R e t a i n i n g W a l l C o n c r e t e R e t a i n i n g W a l l C o n c r e t e R e t a i n i n g W a l l Demolished Tank Base Demolished Tank Base Demolished Tank Base Demolished Tank Base Demolished Tank Base Demolished Tank Base Demolished Tank Base Demolished Tank Base C o n c C o n c C o n c Track Track Track Track Immature Trees Immature Trees Immature Trees Grass Grass Grass Grass Grass Grass Grass Grass Grass Grass 4.98 BHBH 8.24 BHBH BH BH 7.89 BHBH 6.58 BHBH BH 6.58 BH 3.60 3.57P 6.57 MH CL 6.56 RS 7.89 RS TPV1 TPV2 TPV3 TPV4 TPV5 TPV6 IC IC IC IC IC IC FH G G G GP GP IC LP RS SV SV SV GP GP GP GP Pylon Pylon BH BH BH KEYKEY SITE BOUNDARY OTHER LAND AT ESSO OIL TERMINAL Checked Drawing Issue Status Date of 1st Issue Drawing Number Designed Revision DrawnMark Revision ChkdDate File Location: j:\30953 wdc exxon site access study\cad\dwgs\30953_4504_001 - site location plan.dwg UTILITIES NOTE: The position of any existing public or private sewers, utility services, plant or apparatus shown on this drawing is believed to be correct, but no warranty to this is expressed or implied. Other such plant or apparatus may also be present but not shown. The Contractor is therefore advised to undertake their own investigation where the presence of any existing sewers, services, plant or apparatus may affect their operations. SCALING NOTE: Do not scale this drawing - any errors or omissions shall be reported to Stantec without delay. © Crown copyright and database rights . Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Ordnance Survey user name: ashwood, gareth Approved Appd Drawn GLASGOW Tel: 0141 352 2360 stantec.com/uk &RS\ULJKW UeVeUYeG The copyrights to all designs and drawings are the property of Stantec. Reproduction or use for any purpose other than that authorised by Stantec is forbidden. EXXON SITE REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT FIGURE 2.1 SITE LOCATION PLAN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY 30953/4504/001 D 20.02.19 1:6000 DMcL CS DMcD DMcD A Revised site boundary 28.02.19 CS DMcL DMcD B Revised site boundary 02.04.19 CS DMcL DMcD C Revised Exxon owned land boundary 11.09.19 davco DS DMcD 100020790 2020 Client A3 Scale D Revised site boundary 22.04.20 GJA DMcL/DS MJ Page 176
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DC16/175 DC17/092 DC16/055 DC18/207 DC15/270 DC16/116 DC16/117 DC16/262 DC16/263 DC17/186 DC17/188 DC17/041 RIVER CLYDE EXXON SITE DUMBARTON A82 M8A8 DC19/162 DC19/163 Checked Drawing Issue Status Date of 1st Issue Drawing Number Designed Revision DrawnMark Revision ChkdDate File Location: j:\30953 wdc exxon site access study\cad\dwgs\30953_4504_003 - cumulative developments plan.dwg UTILITIES NOTE: The position of any existing public or private sewers, utility services, plant or apparatus shown on this drawing is believed to be correct, but no warranty to this is expressed or implied. Other such plant or apparatus may also be present but not shown. The Contractor is therefore advised to undertake their own investigation where the presence of any existing sewers, services, plant or apparatus may affect their operations. SCALING NOTE: Do not scale this drawing - any errors or omissions shall be reported to Stantec without delay. © Crown copyright and database rights . Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Ordnance Survey user name: ashwood, gareth Approved Appd Drawn GLASGOW Tel: 0141 352 2360 stantec.com/uk &RS\ULJKW UeVeUYeG The copyrights to all designs and drawings are the property of Stantec. Reproduction or use for any purpose other than that authorised by Stantec is forbidden. EXXON SITE REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT FIGURE 2.2 CUMULATIVE DEVELOPMENTS PLAN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY 30953/4504/003 B 18.03.19 1:20000 DMcL CS DMcD DMcD A Revised site boundary 12.09.19 davco DS DMcD B Revised site boundary & additional note 22.04.20 GJADMcL/DS MJ 100020790 2019 Client A3 Scale KEYKEY SITE BOUNDARY PLANNING APPLICATION REFERENCES Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2020 Page 177
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A A F B B C D E E F F F E E G KEY A = CLASS 2 & 5 B = CLASS 4 KEY C = CLASS 6 D = LANDSCAPING E = OPEN SPACE & F = TRANSPORT & DRAINAGE G = DUNGLASS CASTLE GREEN CORRIDOR SITE BOUNDARY OTHER LAND AT ESSO OIL TERMINAL Checked Drawing Issue Status Date of 1st Issue Drawing Number Designed Revision DrawnMark Revision ChkdDate File Location: j:\30953 wdc exxon site access study\cad\dwgs\30953_4504_002 - ppip parameters plan.dwg UTILITIES NOTE: The position of any existing public or private sewers, utility services, plant or apparatus shown on this drawing is believed to be correct, but no warranty to this is expressed or implied. Other such plant or apparatus may also be present but not shown. The Contractor is therefore advised to undertake their own investigation where the presence of any existing sewers, services, plant or apparatus may affect their operations. SCALING NOTE: Do not scale this drawing - any errors or omissions shall be reported to Stantec without delay. © Crown copyright and database rights . Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Ordnance Survey user name: ashwood, gareth Approved Appd Drawn GLASGOW Tel: 0141 352 2360 stantec.com/uk &RS\ULJKW UeVeUYeG The copyrights to all designs and drawings are the property of Stantec. Reproduction or use for any purpose other than that authorised by Stantec is forbidden. EXXON SITE REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT FIGURE 3.1 PPIP PARAMETER PLAN FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY 30953/4504/002 E 20.02.19 1:6000 DMcL CS DMcD DMcD A Revised site boundary 28.02.19 CS DMcL DMcD B Revised site boundary 02.04.19 CS DMcL DMcD C Revised parameters 11.04.19 CS DMcL DMcD 100020790 2020 Client A3 Scale D Revised Exxon owned land boundary 11.09.19 davco DS DMcD E Revised site boundary 22.04.20 GJA DMcL/DS MJ Page 178
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B o t t o m o f R o c k f a c e Bottom of Rockface Bottom of Rockface Bedrock Bedrock Bedrock R e t . M a s o n a r y W a l l R e t . M a s o n a r y W a l l Top of Rockface Concrete Concrete Concrete Tarmac Tarmac Tarmac Tarmac Tarmac Tarmac Gravel Gravel D r a i n D r a i n D r a i n D r a i n B o t t o m o f R o c k f a c e Bedrock Bedrock Bedrock Monument Grass Grass Grass Grass Gate Concrete C h a i n L i n k S e c u r i t y F e n c e C h a i n L i n k S e c u r i t y F e n c e Chain Link Security Fence C h a i n L i n k S e c u r i t y F e n c e C h a i n L i n k S e c u r i t y F e n c e M a s o n r y W a l l C h a i n L i n k S e c u r i t y F e n c e T o p o f S l o p i n g S t o n e S l o p e T o p o f S l o p i n g S t o n e S l o p e T o p o f S l o p i n g S t o n e S l o p e Bushes Bushes Bushes Bushes Bushes Bushes Bushes RIVER CLYDE RIVER CLYDE Sump Concrete I n d i c i t i v e W a l l Boulders Site Cabin Site Cabin Site Cabin W/C B r i c k W a l l B r i c k W a l l B r i c k W a l l B r i c k W a l l B r i c k W a l l B r i c k R e t . W a l l M e t a l F e n c e M e t a l F e n c e M e t a l F e n c e Metal Fence M e t a l F e n c e M e t a l F e n c e M e t a l F e n c e M e t a l F e n c e M e t a l F e n c e B o u l d e r s B o u l d e r s B o u l d e r s Remains of Building Disused Car Park Thick Brambles Thick Brambles Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Bushes Conc. Grass Grass Conc. Conc. Tarmac Disused Car Park Grass Grass A c c e s s R d A c c e s s R d Concrete Tarmac Collapse Collapse I n d i c i t i v e S l o p e O n l y I n d i c i t i v e S l o p e O n l y T a r m a c F o o t p a t h T a r m a c F o o t p a t h T a c t i l e Concrete Concrete Tarmac A c c e s s R d D r a i n D r a i n Cables Inv: 6.26, Dia: 150mm Inv: 6.15, Dia: 150mm T o p o f B a n k Bottom of Bank B o t t o m o f B a n k C h a i n l i n k F e n c e Chainlink Fence D e l a p i d a t e d P / W F e n c e D e l a p i d a t e d P / W F e n c e D e l a p i d a t e d P / W F e n c e D e l a p i d a t e d P / W F e n c e Dense Scrub Dense Scrub Woodland Woodland Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees B u s h e s B u s h e s C o n c . R e t . W a l l C o n c . R e t . W a l l R e t a i n i n g R o c k s R e t a i n i n g R o c k s R e t a i n i n g R o c k s R e t a i n i n g R o c k s A c c e s s R d Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Concrete Pad Concrete Pad Anchor P i e r C o n c . W a l l C o n c . W a l l C o n c . W a l l C o n c . W a l l C o n c . W a l l BASIN Fender Fender Fender Fender Fender RIVER CLYDE E 242,500 E 243,000 E 243,500 E 244,000 LOCH LMND A82LOCH LMND A82 H ' B R G H LOCH LMND A82LOCH LMND A82 H ' B R G H A 8 1 4 LOCH LMND A82 H ' B R G H LOCH LMND A814 B U S S T O P E d g e o f B a l l a s t E d g e o f B a l l a s t B o t t o m o f B a n k E d g e o f B a l l a s t B o t t o m o f B a n k B o t t o m o f B a n k B o t t o m o f B a n k C a b l e T r o u g h C a b l e T r o u g h C a b l e T r o u g h C a b l e T r o u g h C a b l e T r o u g h C a b l e T r o u g h B o t t o m o f B a n k E d g e o f B a l l a s t D i t c h D i t c h B o t t o m o f B a n k B o t t o m o f B a n k T o p o f B a n k T o p o f B a n k MAST B R W a l l R a i l ( D i s u s e d ) Rock Bramble Bushes < D o w n H e l e n s b u r g h U p H e l e n s b u r g h > < D o w n H e l e n s b u r g h U p H e l e n s b u r g h > < < F r o m B o w l i n g S t a t i o n < < T o D u m b a r t o n E a s t S t a t i o n D a t u m M i l e P o s t 1 3 . 2 5 @ 2 1 . 3 2 3 8 1 k m M e t a l F e n c e M e t a l F e n c e C o n c . R e t . W a l l C o n c . R e t . W a l l Thick Brambles Thick Brambles M e t a l F e n c e M e t a l F e n c e M e t a l F e n c e Tarmac Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Deciduous Trees Soil Pile A c c e s s R d A c c e s s R d Thick Brambles Thick Brambles I n d i c i t i v e S l o p e O n l y I n d i c i t i v e S l o p e O n l y Switch 357B Breather O r a n g e P i p e S i g n a l S p e e d S i g n C a b l e T r o u g h C h i p B i n A W S T P W S D i s u s e d / A b a n d o n e d S i d i n g s S i g n a l L o c Speed Sign Access Platform Access Platform H a n d R a i l Access Gate AWS A W S S i g n a l S i g n a l < D o w n H e l e n s b u r g h U p H e l e n s b u r g h > < D o w n H e l e n s b u r g h U p H e l e n s b u r g h > < < F r o m B o w l i n g S t a t i o n < < T o D u m b a r t o n E a s t S t a t i o n L u b r i c a t o r s B l a c k B o n d B l a c k B o n d Cable Cable C a b l e T r o u g h C a b l e T r o u g h C a b l e T r o u g h C a b l e T r o u g h M i l e P o s t L o c Y D 6 1 3 R Y D 6 1 2 R A A F B B C D E E F F F E E G Heritage Area 0.46ha Westfield C (WFC) 5.67ha Westfield A (WFA) 3.14ha Northfield (NFD) 6.59ha Greenfield (GFD) 7.79ha Milton Island SSSI 16.50ha Foreshore area 5.39ha Centrefield (CFD) 4.04ha Eastfield (EFD) 5.53ha Westfield B (WFB) 6.74ha Truck Maintenance Yard (TMC) 1.45ha Garden (GDN) 0.16ha INTERNAL SUB-DIVISION PPiP ZONING AREAS A = CLASS 2 & 5 B = CLASS 4 C = CLASS 6 D = LANDSCAPING E = OPEN SPACE & F = TRANSPORT & DRAINAGE G = DUNGLASS CASTLE GREEN CORRIDOR SITE BOUNDARY OTHER LAND AT ESSO OIL TERMINAL Checked Drawing Issue Status Date of 1st Issue Drawing Number Designed Revision DrawnMark Revision ChkdDate File Location: j:\30953 wdc exxon site access study\cad\dwgs\wip\30953_3503_003.dwg UTILITIES NOTE: The position of any existing public or private sewers, utility services, plant or apparatus shown on this drawing is believed to be correct, but no warranty to this is expressed or implied. Other such plant or apparatus may also be present but not shown. The Contractor is therefore advised to undertake their own investigation where the presence of any existing sewers, services, plant or apparatus may affect their operations. SCALING NOTE: Do not scale this drawing - any errors or omissions shall be reported to Stantec without delay. © Crown copyright and database rights . Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Ordnance Survey user name: ashwood, gareth Approved Appd Drawn GLASGOW Tel: 0141 352 2360 stantec.com/uk &RS\ULJKW UeVeUYeG The copyrights to all designs and drawings are the property of Stantec. Reproduction or use for any purpose other than that authorised by Stantec is forbidden. EXXON SITE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT SITE MASTERPLAN WITH ESSO FIGURE 3.2 INTERNAL SUB-DIVISIONS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY 30953/3503/003 D 08.03.2018 1:5000 @ A3 DMcL CS DS DMcD A Site boundary revised. PPiP Zones added 28.02.19 CS DMcL DMcD B Site boundary revised 08.04.19 CS DMcL DMcD C Revised Exxon owned land boundary 12.09.19 davco DS DMcD 100020790 2020 Client A3 Scale D Revised boundary and note 22.04.20 GJA DMcL/DS DMcD Page 179
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Appendix D Risk Register Page 180
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Project Title: Member Authority: Project Location: Project Sponsor: Date updated: Risk Ref Date Identified Status Primary Risk Category Risk Title Risk Description Strategic objectives Risk Owner Responsible Officer Inherent Im pact Inherent Probability Inherent Risk Score Inherent Rank Risk Treatm ent Approach Controls and Mitigating Action Resid. Im pact Resid. Probability Resid. Risk Score Resid. Rank Date Reviewed M ovem ent in period Planned Next Steps and Future Action Required WDC035 25/08/2021 Open Financial Inflation Due to Delays the cost of inflation takes the project over budget A WDC – Project Management 4 5 20 Very High Value engineering process completed and identified £2.26M cost savings, while maintaining the scope and functionality as outlined and agreed in the OBC. Monitoring and management of the project delivery plan, uplifting the budget or rescoping of project parameters if necessary. Depends on Western Underpass construction timescale some delay might be unavoidable. 4 4 16 Very High 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC042 15/03/2022 Open Contractual Exxon Site access No access before site remediation is fully complete which could delay construction of the Western underpass and potentially other elements of the project. C WDC/Exxon 5 4 20 Very High Site remediation is closely monitored and it is still on target for an end of 2023 site handover, however the work is strongly weather dependent. 4 4 16 Very High 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC032 08/03/2021 Open Financial Land acquisition Acquisition of 3rd party land by Council C WDC – Project Management 5 4 20 Very High Ongoing discussions with individual landowners. Time bound offers or worst case proceed with CPO. Asset team provide regular updates to Project Board on progress. 4 3 12 High 13/06/2023 ↓ WDC032 08/03/2021 Open PHYSICAL / ASSETS Land acquisition Land acquisition of Exxon land and 3rd party land concludes without subsequent funding agreed from City Deal C WDC – Project Management 4 3 12 High Meet all City Deal PMO parameters for achieving funding. Complete and submit FBC to PMO by June 2023. If funding refused WDC need to look into alternative funding, potentially extract work package for LUF application. 4 3 12 High 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC037 25/08/2021 Open PHYSICAL / ASSETS Dunglass Castle Dunglass Castle ‐ Listed Structure will become a WDC asset. Budget does not exist within Capital Project Plan to redevelop this asset. D WDC – PM 3 5 15 Very High Condition/Structural survey has been carried out and the extent of work required identified. Planning and Asset Management to discuss future uses and funding. Consider alternative funding sources i.e. Heritage Lottery Fund. Discussions with Scottish Heritage is ongoing regarding the future conservation and funding opportunities. 3 4 12 High 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC041 14/03/2022 Open Financial Land access Land access agreement to 3rd party land by Council C WDC/Landowner s 5 4 20 Very High Agreements reached in principle with all landowners. Legal agreements are progressing, but slowly. 4 3 12 High 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC021 10/10/2018 Open Contractual Programme slippage Programme slippage incurs additional project costs A WDC 4 4 16 Very High Continual monitoring and reviewing of project phasing, risk register and budget. 3 4 12 High 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC001 01/07/2016 Open FINANCIAL Benefit realisation of site Alternative sites are deemed more attractive for development reducing the attractiveness of former Exxon site A WDC – Economic Impact (Gillian McNamara) 4 3 12 High Option appraisal has identified capacity for and attractiveness of former Exxon site as other local development sites are expected to be fully developed over next 10 years 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC014 43383 Open REGULATORY / LEGAL Technical approvals Necessary statutory approvals for development cannot be gained or are delayed C WDC – Legal (PM / Stantec) 4 3 12 High We are working very closely with our Planning Service and all relevant statutory bodies to enable timely approvals. Regular reporting of progress within the Council and funders are ongoing. Regulatory Services representatives are on Project Board. 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC022 10/10/2018 Open Environment Flood Risk Fluvial and coastal flooding identified through SEPA plans. Potential to limit development area and/or increase enabling costs C WDC – Environment 4 4 16 Very High Flood Risk Assessment considered and mitigation strategy completed to maximise development area. Value engineering process reduced hard engineering mitigation options, currently under consultation with SEPA. 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC023 10/10/2018 Open Environment Environmental constraints Environmental constraints (e.g. SSSI, RAMSAR, Ornithology, SPA) critically limits the extent of and type of development and potentially challenges compound locations for temporary work capacity of the site for development C WDC – Environment PM 4 3 12 High The environmental mitigation measures taken into account of the Masterplan process. Progress project in line with planning conditions as set out in PPIP approval. 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC026 10/10/2018 Open Contractual Multiple contractors working on site Different contractors require to be on site at the same time to ensure the programme is maintained C WDC 4 3 12 High Early engagement with all potential parties to coordinate respective work programmes for construction and remediation staging. Ensure contracts reflect the needs of Exxon/WDC working on the site at the same time. 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 WDC045 22/06/2022 Open Contractual Final Business Case Final Business Case Submission delay or not approved C WDC 5 4 20 Very High Change request submission to allow FBC preparation approved by City Deal Cabinet on the 8 November 2022. New FBC submission is June 2023. 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC025 10/10/2018 Open Contractual Contractor procurement Procurement of contractors delays the project C WDC/Balfour Beatty plc 3 4 12 High WDC selected Balfour Beatty Plc under the SCAPE Framework and the contract agreement for Pre construction phase is now concluded. New resources are allocated for the enabling and construction contract phase. 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC048 30/03/2023 Open Regulatory / Legal Eastern overbridge deck replacement possession time Separate possession time required by Network Rail to progress with deck replacement C WDC/NR 4 3 12 High The possession time to be progressed once the construction programme is agreed with WDC. 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 New WDC49 30/03/2023 Open Environment Land acquisition with invasive species Invasive species to be managed by the council (long term commitment with financial implication and could potentially affect construction). C WDC 4 3 12 High Carrying out surveys and establish ongoing maintenance schedule to manage issue. 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 New WDC010 25/08/2017 Open PHYSICAL / ASSETS Delay of remediation Delay to remediation of contaminated land that impacts on the Councils delivery time frame. C Exxon 4 5 20 Very High The Remediation of the Eastern field is completed which enable access to the site and allow partial site take over if construction programme requires. There are contingencies build into the remediation process by Exxon to accelerate progress. The remediation progress is closely monitored and currently it is on target for completion for December 2023. 3 4 12 High 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC50 30/03/2023 Open People / Societal Management of people and material to construction site Creating congestions on A82 and A814 and create public frustrations C WDC 4 3 12 High Contractor is exploring the option to bring some material via the River Clyde. The traffic plan will be submitted to Planning. 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 New WDC019 10/10/2018 Open PROFESSIONAL Delay of approvals Council delays decisions on approvals of Business Cases as project progresses. C WDC 5 3 15 Very High The Project Board ensures that the Final Business Case process is clearly defined and implications of time delays on the project are clearly articulated in reports to Council. 4 2 8 Medium 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC008 25/08/2017 Open FINANCIAL Insufficient funding Insufficient funding due to complexity of site. C WDC – Project Management 3 3 9 Medium Value engineering through design process to optimise development. Build development in phases and / or seek additional, alternative funding sources i.e. Low Carbon fund, Natural Heritage fund etc. Potential income through sale of development sites not yet factored into Business Case. City Deal Committed £27M and Council have committed £6.05M 3 2 6 Medium 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC018 10/10/2018 Open Physical / Assets Infill material Difficulty obtaining the required volume of material to create the raised development platforms C WDC 4 3 12 High Early identification of potential supplies of suitable materials or phase the raising of platforms aligned with developing out of plots, or pass cost of raised platform to final development customer. Value Engineering has optimised proposed ground levels to reduce quantity of infill material. 2 3 6 Medium 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC044 22/06/2022 Open Physical / Assets Access to Western Underpass construction Access to Western Underpass construction via Eastern overbridge C NR/WDC/Esso 5 4 20 Very High Project Board decided to cancel December 2023 possession date to avoid significant challenges with the personnel access and material delivery via the Eastern Overbridge. The access agreement with Esso would only be agreed if a new haul road was constructed before the construction start (June 2023) for the western Underpass traffic, which was not feasible given the short timescale. New possession date is requested for December 2024. 2 2 4 Low 13/06/2023 ↓ WDC047 30/03/2023 Open Contractual Western Underpass Western Underpass construction contract signed but not able to be delivered C WDC 5 5 25 Very High Project Board decided to cancel December 2023 possession date to avoid significant challenges with this issue. 2 2 4 Low 13/06/2023 ↓ WDC007 25/08/2017 Open FINANCIAL Insufficient resources Insufficient availability of resources for project delivery. C WDC – Project Management 3 3 9 Medium Dedicated Project Manager (Patricia Rowley) appointed within WDC. Scape framework chosen by project board with Design and Build being the desired contractor appointment route. 2 2 4 Low 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC017 10/10/2018 Open People / Societal Delay to programme due to Approvals Delay to programme due to number of Governance levels ‐ Planning, Board, Council, PMO, City Deal Cabinet C WDC – Project Management 3 2 6 Medium The Exxon Project Board is overseeing the internal approval processes and we are closely working with City Deal PMO to meet required deadlines. Project progressing final business case June 2023. 2 2 4 Low 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC031 13/11/2019 Open REGULATORY / LEGAL Contaminated land liabilities Excessive liabilities associated with contaminated land. C WDC – Legal (Alan Douglas) 3 3 9 Medium Remediation responsibilities are confirmed as Exxon`s responsibility up to point of land transfer to Council. This will be approved by Regulators ( WDC & SEPA). Council`s own development proposals will require localised remediation strategy through the planning process. 2 2 4 Low 13/06/2023 ↔ Bowling, Dumbarton Gail MacFarlane Jun‐23 Glasgow City Region City Deal PROJECT RISK REGISTER Exxon Mobile West Dunbartonshire Council Page 181
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WDC042 14/03/2022 Open PHYSICAL / ASSETS Unidentified structures Unidentified structures may cause issues during and after construction C WDC 4 4 16 Very High The area that ESSO are remediating will be mapped and addressed, the area out with remediation has to be further investigated to reduce risk. The updated obstruction drawings are regularly shared with Balfour Beatty. 2 2 4 Low 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC003 01/07/2016 Open FINANCIAL Site fails to deliver GVA forecast Site fails to deliver the desired levels of economic activity and GVA forecast A WDC – Economic Impact (Gillian McNamara) 2 2 4 Low Economic appraisal will be undertaken as detailed plans are developed to ensure that proposals will deliver target outturns. Early commercial marketing of opportunity will be undertaken. 2 1 2 Low 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC009 25/08/2017 Open PHYSICAL / ASSETS Infrastructure capacity Insufficient infrastructure capacity to enable desired quantum of development C WDC – Road & Infrastructure ( Roads) / 2 2 4 Low Plan infrastructure maximisation strategies into development 2 1 2 Low 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC024 10/10/2018 Open Contractual Sales of Exxon Mobile site to other parties Sale of site by Exxon to other parties rather than West Dunbartonshire Council C WDC – Legal (Alan Douglas / Kim McCallum) / Exxon 4 1 4 Low Missives have now been agreed with Exxon. Sale by Exxon to other parties could only occur following a breach of those missives which is exceedingly unlikely and could be resisted by the Council. 2 1 2 Low 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC038 25/08/2021 Open PHYSICAL / ASSETS High Voltage cable removal High Voltage Electrical Supply ‐ To be removed post remediation works with appropriate notices served to Scottish Power C WDC – Esso 2 2 4 Low Raise as an action with Exxon at the appropriate point in time. 2 1 2 Low 13/06/2023 ↔ CLOSED RISKS WDC 11 25/08/2017 Closed Environment Quay Walls require upgrading C Exxon 3 5 15 Very High Remedial works implemented to address identified physical defects. 1 1 1 Low 10/10/2018 Closed WDC012 25/08/2017 Closed People / Societal Council elections in May 2017 returns an administration less supportive of City Deal. A WDC 3 3 9 Medium Ensure all members are kept fully informed of the benefits of the project and progress. 1 1 1 Low 10/10/2018 Closed WDC013 26/08/2017 Closed Financial Land value Land value unknown so impact on negotiations with Exxon and impact on distribution of project budget C WDC ‐ Capital Investment Team (Victor Francisco Suarez) 4 4 16 Very High Terms and conditions agreed 1 1 1 Low 10/10/2018 Closed WDC027 10/10/2018 Closed Environment Remediation strategy is not approved Exxon remediation strategy not approved by regulators C Exxon 5 2 10 High Exxon remediation team ensure remediation meets project and regulatory requirements. 1 1 1 Low Closed WDC028 10/10/2018 Closed Physical / Assets Building Footprints Building footprints are not achievable within identified platforms A Exxon 2 3 6 Medium Masterplan addressed the reformed platforms to create sufficient area 1 1 1 Low 13.11.2019 Closed WDC 029 10/10/2018 Closed Environment Residual liabilities Residual liabilities associated with transfer of ownership from Exxon C Exxon 4 2 8 Medium Exxon will undertake a programme of remediation works and a Technical Due Diligence has been undertaken and will continue to be updated to ensure liabilities are clearly dealt with in terms of land ownership transfer and future work programme 1 1 1 Low Closed WDC004 01/07/2016 Close Contractual Land acquisition Third party parcels of land required for development cannot be acquired on acceptable terms including NR. Discussions with NR Property team ongoing. C WDC – Legal (Alan Douglas / Kim McCallum and Michelle Lynn Assets ) 5 4 20 Very High This risk is not relevant as there is no need to purchase land front Network Rail. 1 1 1 Low 15/03/2022 Closed WDC005 01/07/2016 Closed Financial Land value Land value unknown so impact on C WDC – Project 4 4 16 Very High Terms and conditions agreed 1 1 1 Low 15/03/2022 Closed WDC006 02/07/2016 Closed Contractual Exxon Site transfer Delay to or unacceptable terms for transfer C WDC – Legal (Alan 5 4 20 Very High Terms and conditions agreed 1 1 1 Low 15/03/2022 Closed WDC16 10/10/2018 Close PROFESSIONAL Technical approvals Agreement on technical approach with key C WDC ‐ Strategic 0 This risk is considered in WDC08 1 1 1 Low 15/03/2022 Closed WDC030 13/11/2019 Closed PROFESSIONAL Eastern overbridge strengthening Network Rail require eastern access overbridge to be adopted by West Dunbartonshire Council but bridge may not meet required standards for adoption. Eastern Bridge currently owned by Exxon, requires to be procured by WDC, surveys undertaken , and re‐strengthened as required. B WDC – Road & Infrastructure ( Raymond Walsh) 0 Bridge strengthened to allow sufficient strength during site remediation. Replacement of bridge is agreed for long term access to site. 1 1 1 Low 15/03/2022 Closed WDC039 25/08/2021 Closed PHYSICAL / ASSETS Eastern overbridge strengthening Baillie Bridge over Railway line ‐ WDC PR to be made aware of its presence as it’s a reputational risk to WDC but an operational one to Exxon B WDC – Robin Abram 0 Bridge strengthened to allow sufficient strength during site remediation. Replacement of bridge is agreed for long term access to site. 1 1 1 Low 15/03/2022 Closed WDC040 10/03/2022 Closed Contractual Contract agreement between NR & WDC Contract to be agreed and finalised with Network Rail on western underpass. This agreement affecting NR`s ability to appoint suitable subcontractors to design and construct the underpass and it is directly affecting our D&B programme. Possession time cannot be finalise for the Western Underpass construction without the finalised B WDC/NR 5 4 20 Very High Raise issue to A Douglas, & Exxon Board 1 1 1 Low 22/06/2022 Closed WDC020 10/10/2018 Closed Physical / Assets Underpass regulatory approval Regulatory approval for the overbridge or the underpass; provision of underpass design; and possessions for construction of the underpass are delayed by Network Rail C NR/ WDC 5 4 20 Very High Once the contract will be signed between NR& WDC, the responsibility of complying with the regulations and gaining the approval will be with NR`s subcontractors. 4 3 12 High 22/06/2022 Closed WDC043 13/06/2022 Closed Contractual SCAPE Framework Agreement Framework Agreement expire on the 31 Jan 2023 A WDC ‐ Legal& Procurement AT/AD 5 5 25 Very High power to approve the Contract before 31 Jan 2023 4 3 12 High 22/06/2022 Closed WDC034 25/08/2021 Open PROFESSIONAL Eastern Bridge Eastern Bridge demolish and rebuild new bridge. Demolition and rebuilding practicalities and cost difficulties. C WDC – Road & Infrastructure (Roads) 5 4 20 Very High Value engineering identified an opportunity to move away from full bridge replacement to a simple deck replacement, 1 1 1 Low 22/06/2022 Closed WDC036 25/08/2021 Open Financial Affect of Brexit & Covid Material cost increases and delay brought on by Brexit and COVID on the supply chain pressure on manufacture and delivery. A WDC – Project Management 4 5 20 Very High Covid epidemic is now routinely managed in construction sites and until a new national lockdown not considered relevant. The cost increases because of Brexit is now not a new factor. 1 1 1 Low 22/06/2022 Closed WDC015 10/10/2018 Open PROFESSIONAL Unexpected site condition Detailed design / site investigations reveal conditions that will significantly increase costs or affect project delivery C WDC – Site Evaluation PM 4 3 12 High During the outline design phase a number of site investigation work has been completed. Now moved onto the detailed design and necessary site investigations are programmed into the activities and will be incorporated into the programme and necessary submissions for approvals. 3 3 9 Medium 10/10/2022 Closed WDC002 01/07/2016 Open FINANCIAL Not achieve target GVA City Deal does not achieve target GVA levels throughout GCR with associated financial impact. C City Deal Board 2 3 6 Medium Work closely with other City Deal partners to deliver projects successfully. Concern over extent of office supply proposed. 2 2 4 Low 13/06/2023 ↔ WDC046 24/08/2022 Closed Contractual Insufficient time to complete design work due to delayed contract award There will be insufficient time to complete the design & WDC Planning to consider it and discharge conditions. This could cause considerable delays to project, FBC approval etc. C WDC – Esso 5 5 25 Very High Project Board to oversee design progress and ensure it is meeting expected milestones in the agreed programme. 3 3 9 Medium 13/06/2023 ↓ List of Risk Categories for drop down menu Objectives & Projects Threat to achieving Programme / Project objectives Contractual Ineffective use or management of contracts leads to increased costs. Environment Environmental incidents; water, air, hazardous chemical, and other pollution. Financial Financial risks in terms of internal systems, planning, funding etc. Health & Safety Health and safety incidents that harm employees / public Information Technology Failure of IT systems, cyber attack. People / Societal Threats to/from society, groups, public. Physical / Assets Damage to organisation property / assets Political Adverse actions by changes in local and national governments Professional Lack or loss of qualified employees Regulatory / Legal Changing laws / regulations, liabilities, and commercial disputes Reputation Negative publicity regarding organisations business practices, whether true or not Schedule / Timescales Threats to timelines and agreed critical paths 5 Ts Take the opportunity Tolerate Treat Transfer Terminate Movement in period ↔↑↓New Closed Score 1 2 3 4 5 Page 182
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Appendix E Benefits Realisation Profile Page 183
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Description of Benefit Quantity of outputs to be achieved during project life cycle Date when outputs to be achieved / realised in full Outputs to be achieved by May 2019 (Gateway 1) Outputs to be achieved by May 2024 (Gateway 2) Outputs to be achieved by May 2029 (Gateway 3) Outputs to be achieved by May 2035 (Gateway 4) Assumptions/Comments Infrastructure Benefits Vacant and derelict land brought back into commercial use (hectares) 19.10 By 2026 0 19.10 19.10 19.10 In determining benefits, it is assumed that infrastructure works will start on site in 2023 with work completed in 2026 and plots available for development and occupation from then. Land remediated (hectares) 19.10 Over a 25- year period 0 19.10 19.10 19.10 Remediation of contaminated land to be complete prior to site acquisition by WDC. Distribution/manuf acturing(sqm) – Total GEA 34,900 Over a 25- year period 0 6,000 25,233 34,900 34,900 sqm post 2035 Office space (sqm) – Total GEA 9,612 Over a 25- year period 0 1,752 9,612 9,612 9,612 sqm post 2035 Public realm new (m2) 20,000 Over a 25- year period 0 0 20,000 20,000 New public realm space will be created by the project Transport Public road created (m) 1,945 2024 1,945 1,945 1,945 Construction of new spine road through the site to open it up to development. Public road enhanced (m) 1,320 2024 1,320 1,320 1,320 Construction of enhanced junctions and improved sections of carriageway on A82 and A814. Cycle route enhanced (m) 475 2024 475 475 475 Realignment of NCN7 cycle route to maintain continuity and enhance safety. Employment Benefits Total Net Direct Construction Jobs 935 Over a 25- year period 0 0 710 935 935 net direct construction jobs post 2035 Page 184
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Description of Benefit Quantity of outputs to be achieved during project life cycle Date when outputs to be achieved / realised in full Outputs to be achieved by May 2019 (Gateway 1) Outputs to be achieved by May 2024 (Gateway 2) Outputs to be achieved by May 2029 (Gateway 3) Outputs to be achieved by May 2035 (Gateway 4) Assumptions/Comments created (i.e. direct jobs) at City Region level Total Net Direct Operational Jobs at City Region level 970 Over a 25- year period 0 0 180 970 970 net direct jobs post 2035 Total Net Additional Gross Value Added (GVA) at City Region level (£m) 0 £0.00 £60.80 £226.50 £523m GVA post 2035 Environmental Benefits Greenspace enhanced or protected (hectares) 27.13 2024 0 27.13 27.13 27.13 The western half of the site is designated as greenbelt and as part of the green network in the LDP. It is assumed this land will be enhanced to improve its amenity prior to development commencing on site. Land decontaminated (hectares) 19.10 2019 0 19.10 19.10 19.10 Remediation of contaminated land expected to be complete prior to site acquisition by WDC. Area of land protected from flood (hectares) 24.77 2024 0 24.77 24.77 24.77 The whole site has been identified as potentially susceptible to flooding. It is assumed that flood protection measures will be put in place as part of the implementation of the project Financial Benefits Page 185
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Description of Benefit Quantity of outputs to be achieved during project life cycle Date when outputs to be achieved / realised in full Outputs to be achieved by May 2019 (Gateway 1) Outputs to be achieved by May 2024 (Gateway 2) Outputs to be achieved by May 2029 (Gateway 3) Outputs to be achieved by May 2035 (Gateway 4) Assumptions/Comments Leverage - Private sector income secured / levered (Discounted) (£m) £43.8 Over a 25- year period - - £27.90 £43.80 £43.8 leveraged private sector investment post 2035 Disbenefits Disbenefit Description Options Disruption to residents and businesses during construction This is likely to be a temporary dis-benefit and will be managed with careful stakeholder engagement prior to and during the construction period. This will be complemented by detailed construction management plans (a requirement of contractors), a Communications Plan and direct engagement to raise awareness and pick up issues for future learning Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Loss of public space to development A loss of public spaces may occur in some instances as areas of the site begin to be developed. Intervention options mitigate this through increased space for pedestrians and cyclists and by affording more direct access to enhanced areas of public space on the waterfront. Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Traffic disruption: Conflict between motor vehicles (public and private) and pedestrians and cyclists. A Communications Plan will ensure all parties are aware of plans and project objectives. Design will also be based on evidence i.e. traffic modelling therefore removal of vehicle traffic should be manageable in traffic management terms. Programming of works to avoid issues around works in close proximity, and utilisation of traffic management specialists within the design team. Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Page 186
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Disbenefit Description Options Increased freight movement along the A82 Despite enhanced infrastructure surrounding and servicing the site, freight traffic as a result of distribution occupiers on the site, will inevitably increase. An increase in this particular type of traffic, brings associated traffic accident risks. Option 1 Option 4 Option 5 Page 187
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Full Business Case for Exxon Site Development Project West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Appendix F Additionality Leakage Displacement Multiplier the Council City Region Scotland the Council City Region Scotland the Council City Region Scotland Retail 15% 5% 0% 15% 35% 50% 1.12 1.20 1.25 Leisure 15% 5% 0% 30% 40% 50% 1.15 1.24 1.30 Food and Drink 15% 5% 0% 15% 25% 50% 1.15 1.25 1.31 Hotel 15% 5% 0% 25% 33% 50% 1.11 1.18 1.23 R & D 20% 10% 0% 25% 33% 40% 1.17 1.28 1.35 Business High value sectors 30% 15% 5% 20% 35% 50% 1.28 1.47 1.59 Medium Value Sectors 25% 15% 5% 20% 35% 50% 1.32 1.54 1.67 Low Value Sectors 25% 15% 5% 20% 35% 50% 1.19 1.32 1.40 Industry High value sectors 15% 15% 1% 20% 35% 50% 1.38 1.63 1.78 Medium Value Sectors 10% 5% 0% 20% 35% 50% 1.53 1.88 2.10 Low Value Sectors 10% 5% 0% 20% 35% 50% 1.18 1.30 1.37 Additionality factors have been selected based on the level of activity, employment and number of businesses present in each market in each area. Multipliers have been derived for each industry from the Scottish Government Type II Multipliers. The City Region multiplier equates to 80% of the Scottish and the Council multipliers equate to 60% of the City Regions. Note, multipliers used across key development sites (business and industry medium value) have increased by 12% and 24% respectively. This has increased the number of expected net jobs. Page 188
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West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Appendix G Development Plot & Option Timelines The following assumptions have been used in the Impact Model to convert the Gross External Area (GEA) of each development site associated with the project into Gross Internal Area (GIA) and Net Internal Area (NIA). The value for the GEA of each class is 100% as the building sizes are known. Use Class NIA GIA GEA Class 1 Shops 95% 85% 100% Class 2 Financial and Professional Services 95% 85% 100% Class 3 Food & Drink 95% 85% 100% Class 4 Business 95% 85% 100% Class 5 General Industry 100% 90% 100% Class 6 Distribution 100% 100% 100% Class 7 Hotels 95% 85% 100% Class 8 Residential Institutions 100% 100% 100% Class 9 Residential 100% 100% 100% Class 10 Non-residential Institutions 95% 90% 100% Class 11 Assembly & Leisure 95% 90% 100% The development timeline of each option – is reported separately. Page 189
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West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Appendix H Equalities Impact Assessment Page 190
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AssessmentNo 737 Owner rrea Resource Regeneration, Environment and Growth Service/Establishment Regeneration First Name Surname Job title Head Officer Patricia Rowley Exxon Site Development (include job titles/organisation) Members Ricardo Rea - Performance and Strategy Officer Sharron Worthington - WDC Roads Project Lead Matty Loxton - Stantec Design Lead Patricia Rowley - WDC Capital Projects Manager (Please note: the word 'policy' is used as shorthand for stategy policy function or financial decision) Policy Title Exxon Development Project, Detailed Design and Final Business Case Submission stage of the City Deal Funding The aim, objective,purpose and intended out come of policy To provide transport infrastructure on the Exxon site to stimulate economic growth to and encourage business development and job creation and unlock the wider greenspace associated to the former Esso Oil Terminal to the local community of Milton and Bowling. Service/Partners/Stakeholders/service users involved in the development and/or implementation of policy. Internal Council departments, statutory stakeholders, utility providers, local community, current landowners affected. Does the proposals involve the procurement of any goods or services? Yes If yes please confirm that you have contacted our procurement services to discuss your requirements. Yes SCREENING You must indicate if there is any relevance to the four areas Duty to eliminate discrimination (E), advance equal opportunities (A) or foster good relations (F) Yes Relevance to Human Rights (HR) No Relevance to Health Impacts (H) Yes Relevance to Social Economic Impacts (SE) Yes Who will be affected by this policy? People living in West Dunbartonshire, people seeking employment in West Dunbartonshire, people travel through West Dunbartonshire by road or by bicycle, businesses in West Dunbartonshire and West Dunbartonshire Council staff. Who will be/has been involved in the consultation process? Internal Council Departments, statutory stakeholders, utility providers, local community, current landowners affected. Please outline any particular need/barriers which equality groups may have in relation to this policy list evidence you are using to support this and whether there is any negative impact on particular groups. Needs Evidence Impact Age As part of the Planning Permission PPIP_DC20/088 There is good Outdoor space for the local community Page 191
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in Principle (PPIP) there is a requirement for further landscape and path development on the wider Exxon site, however the scope for this is outhwith of the City Deal Funding provision. Public spaces need to be safe and accessible for all peopleThere are concerns about loeliness and social exclusion of some older people in Scotland evidence that intergenerational contact and interculture contact can be of great benefit to both older and younger people members of all ages. Older people and younger children will be better able to access the area due to improved Road safety and better transport links. Cross Cutting WD Local Transport Strategy, Sustainable transport policy Longer term improved A82 route will particularly benefit groups who rely more on public transport. The project is improving resilience to the A82 and improve cycle and walking provision through the site. Disability The council has a duty in terms of accessibility for disabled people. The design is being developed in line with current best practice to meet the needs of all users, following ‘Design Manual for Roads and Bridges’ (DMRB), published by The Stationery Office (TSO) and ‘National Roads Development Guide’ 2017, (NRDG), published by the Society for Chief Officers of Transport in Scotland (SCOTS). The primary design standard for all cycle infrastructure will be ‘Cycling by Design’, 2021, published by Transport Scotland. For pedestrian infrastructure, the A more accessible public space Better transport links, more wheel chair friendly, more friendly to people with other physical impairments, more accessible for those with visual impairments. Reduced noise levels from slower traffic are of benefit to all but may be of particular help to people with some mental health conditions Page 192
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primary design standard will be the ‘National Roads Development Guide’ 2015, (NRDG), published by the Society for Chief Officers of Transport in Scotland (SCOTS). For sections along the A82 to be adopted by ‘Transport Scotland Roads for All: Good Practice Guide for Roads’, 2013 will be followed. Social & Economic Impact During the construction the contractors will provide social value benefit to the local area (proportionate to their contract value). Social value added to contracts. The transport infrastructure projects unlock the site economical potential. School engagements, job creation and upskilling, local foodbank support from involved contractors during site development. Increasing to the resilience of the A82 at this section. Sex Gender Reassign Health Everyone should have as much opportunity as possible to access inclusive public spaces. WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE COUNCIL Strategic Plan 2022 -2027 More Accessible public spaces can contribute towards better physical and mental health, and reduce social exclusion(Tackling social isolation and loneliness and building stronger social connections) Benefits are clearly realisable in terms of increased and safer physical activity e.g., walking, cycling and a generally more active travel Human Rights As discussed in 'disability' and 'age' section above As discussed in 'disability' and 'age' section above As discussed in 'disability' and 'age' section above Marriage & Civil Partnership Pregnancy & Maternity Race Religion and Belief Page 193
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Sexual Orientation Actions Policy has a negative impact on an equality group,but is still to be implemented, please provide justification for this. no Will the impact of the policy be monitored and reported on an ongoing bases? West Dunbartonshire Council reports to the Glasgow City Region Cabinet on a regular basis. Q7 What is you recommendation for this policy? Intoduce Please provide a meaningful summary of how you have reached the recommendation EIA 737: The Impact assessment work carried out during the development of this proposal has identified a range of positive impacts, especially for the local community of all ages and abilities by creating green spaces. The transport infrastructure development is also unlocking future potential of the Exxon site to stimulate economic growth to and encourage business development and job creation. Page 194
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West Dunbartonshire Council – Glasgow City Region City Deal – Full Business Case Appendix I Project Programme Page 195
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Activity ID Activity Name Original Duration Early Start Early Finish Exxon Bowling Precon Rev0 26th May 2023Exxon Bowling Precon Rev0 26th May 2023 758 28-Feb-23 24-Apr-26 KEY DATESKEY DATES 758 28-Feb-23 24-Apr-26 Contract DatesContract Dates 701 30-May-23 24-Apr-26 Scape Project ProcurementScape Project Procurement 79 30-May-23 20-Sep-23 SC-PR-10040 BB Submit Pre-construction Proposals 0 30-May-23* SC-PR-10050* BB Update Pre-construction Proposals With Developing Design 40 30-May-23 24-Jul-23 SC-PR-10060 Submit Final Pre-construction Proposals 0 25-Jul-23 SC-PR-10070 WDC Initial Review, Prepare Committee Report & Pre-Agenda Minutes 5 30-May-23 05-Jun-23 SC-PR-10080 WDC Submit Report for Committee Meeting & Pre-Agenda Minutes 0 06-Jun-23 SC-PR-10090 Anticipated Planning Approval 0 14-Jun-23* SC-PR-10100 WDC Committee Meeting / Cabinet Approval 0 28-Jun-23* SC-PR-10110 WDC Finalise Business Case Report for City Deal 12 30-May-23 14-Jun-23 SC-PR-10120 WDC Submit Final Business Case to City Deal 0 15-Jun-23 SC-PR-10130 City Deal Review & Approvals of Business Case 37 15-Jun-23 04-Aug-23 SC-PR-10140 City Deal Approval 0 07-Aug-23 SC-PR-10150 WDC / BB Finalise Terms of Delivery Agreement 30 07-Aug-23 19-Sep-23 SC-PR-10160 Latest Date for Approval of Planning Application (20th Sep 2023) 0 20-Sep-23* SC-PR-10170 Signed Delivery Agreement 0 20-Sep-23 Contract Start DatesContract Start Dates 28 20-Sep-23 30-Oct-23 CSD-10000 CS CS Contract Start Date Contract Award 0 20-Sep-23 CSD-10010 Minimum Main Works Mobilisation Period 28 20-Sep-23 27-Oct-23 CSD-10020 Earliest Start Date TBC 0 30-Oct-23 CSD-10030 Planned Start Date TBC 0 30-Oct-23 Contract Completion DatesContract Completion Dates 30 05-Mar-26 24-Apr-26 CCD-10000 PC Planned Substantial Completion 0 05-Mar-26 CCD-10010 Contractor's Terminal Float 30 05-Mar-26 24-Apr-26 CCD-10020 PC Planned Contract Completion 0 24-Apr-26 CCD-10030-CD CD Specified Contract Completion Date (TBC) 0 24-Apr-26 CCD-10040 Complete Soft Landscaping Works (Seasonal) TBC 0 24-Apr-26 Access DatesAccess Dates 514 28-Feb-23 13-Apr-25 Access to Areas Outwith PlotAccess to Areas Outwith Plot 0 30-Oct-23 30-Oct-23 AD-10000 Access to West Junction (A82 to Railway) 0 30-Oct-23 AD-10010 Access to East Junction (A82 to Railway) 0 30-Oct-23 Shared Plot AccessShared Plot Access 0 30-Oct-23 30-Oct-23 AD-20010 Shared Plot Access Across Existing Eastern Overbridge Permitted 0 30-Oct-23 Exxon Plot HandoverExxon Plot Handover 12 22-Dec-23 23-Jan-24 AD-20020 Plot Remediation Complete (Access to Eastern Overbridge Available) 0 22-Dec-23* AD-20022 Prep for Removal of Bailey Bridge - OTHERS 5 22-Dec-23 11-Jan-24 AD-20023 ASSUMED Exxon Planned Demobilisation Complete 0 12-Jan-24* AD-20024 ROTR Removal of Bailey Bridge - OTHERS 2 12-Jan-24 15-Jan-24 AD-20026 Dismantle & Remove Bailey Bridge From Site - OTHERS 5 16-Jan-24 22-Jan-24 AD-20028 Existing Eastern Overbridge Handed Back to BB 0 23-Jan-24 AD-20040 ASSUMED EXXON / WDC Land Agreement & Plot Access In Place 0 23-Jan-24 AD-20050 ASSUMED PERMITTED Plot Access Across Existing Eastern Overbridge 0 23-Jan-24 Access ArrangementsAccess Arrangements 215 28-Feb-23 23-Jan-24 AD-70000 Shared Use of Existing East Overbridge 85 30-Oct-23 22-Jan-24 AD-70005 BB Exclusive Use of Existing East Overbridge 0 23-Jan-24 23-Jan-24 AD-70010 Use of New Western Underbridge With Temporary Haul Route 0 28-Feb-23 28-Feb-23 AD-70030 Use of New Eastern Overbridge Deck With Temporary Surface 0 28-Feb-23 28-Feb-23 AD-70040 Use of New Western Underbridge on Finished Carriageway 0 28-Feb-23 28-Feb-23 AD-70050 Use of New Eastern Overbridge on Finished Carriageway 0 28-Feb-23 28-Feb-23 Eastern OverbridgeEastern Overbridge 1 11-Apr-25 13-Apr-25 AD-50000 Earliest Date for Eastern Overbridge Demolition 1 11-Apr-25 11-Apr-25 AD-50010 Eastern Overbridge e for Demolition - TO BE CONFIRMED 3 11-Apr-25 13-Apr-25 Western Overbridge - Standalone - Assumed Story ProgrammeWestern Overbridge - Standalone - Assumed Story Programme 224 12-Mar-24 17-Feb-25 AD-60000 Western Overbridge South Side / Haul Road Handed Over to Railbridge Contractor - ASSUMED BY EXXON / WDC N/A0 12-Mar-24 AD-60010 Western Overbridge Establish / Enable / Construct Bridge / Prep for Install 130 03-Jun-24* 03-Dec-24 AD-60020 Western Overbridge North Side / PUs Handed over to Railbridge Contractor - BY BB 0 01-Oct-24 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Exxon Bowling Precon Rev0 26th May 2023 KEY DATES Contract Dates Scape Project Procurement SC-PR-10040 BB Submit Pre-construction Proposals SC-PR-10050* BB Update Pre-construction Proposals With Developing Design SC-PR-10060 Submit Final Pre-construction Proposals SC-PR-10070 WDC Initial Review, Prepare Committee Report & Pre-Agenda Minutes SC-PR-10080 WDC Submit Report for Committee Meeting & Pre-Agenda Minutes SC-PR-10090 Anticipated Planning Approval SC-PR-10100 WDC Committee Meeting / Cabinet Approval SC-PR-10110 WDC Finalise Business Case Report for City Deal SC-PR-10120 WDC Submit Final Business Case to City Deal SC-PR-10130 City Deal Review & Approvals of Business Case SC-PR-10140 City Deal Approval SC-PR-10150 WDC / BB Finalise Terms of Delivery Agreement SC-PR-10160 Latest Date for Approval of Planning Application (20th Sep 2023) SC-PR-10170 Signed Delivery Agreement Contract Start Dates CSD-10000 CS CS Contract Start Date Contract Award CSD-10010 Minimum Main Works Mobilisation Period CSD-10020 Earliest Start Date TBC CSD-10030 Planned Start Date TBC Contract Completion Dates CCD-10000 PC Planned Substantial Completion CCD-10010 Contractor's Terminal Float CCD-10020 PC Planned Contract Completion CCD-10030-CD CD Specified Contract Completion Date (TBC) CCD-10040 Complete Soft Landscaping Works (Seasonal) TBC Access Dates Access to Areas Outwith Plot AD-10000 Access to West Junction (A82 to Railway) AD-10010 Access to East Junction (A82 to Railway) Shared Plot Access AD-20010 Shared Plot Access Across Existing Eastern Overbridge Permitted Exxon Plot Handover AD-20020 Plot Remediation Complete (Access to Eastern Overbridge Available) AD-20022 Prep for Removal of Bailey Bridge - OTHERS AD-20023 ASSUMED Exxon Planned Demobilisation Complete AD-20024 ROTR Removal of Bailey Bridge - OTHERS AD-20026 Dismantle & Remove Bailey Bridge From Site - OTHERS AD-20028 Existing Eastern Overbridge Handed Back to BB AD-20040 ASSUMED EXXON / WDC Land Agreement & Plot Access In Place AD-20050 ASSUMED PERMITTED Plot Access Across Existing Eastern Overbridge Access Arrangements AD-70000 Shared Use of Existing East Overbridge, Shared Use of Existing East Overbridge AD-70005 BB Exclusive Use of Existing East Overbridge, BB Exclusive Use of Existing East Overbridge Use of New Western Underbridge With Temporary Haul Route, Use of New Western Underbridge With Temporary Haul Route Use of New Eastern Overbridge Deck With Temporary Surface, Use of New Eastern Overbridge Deck With Temporary Surface Use of New Western Underbridge on Finished Carriageway, Use of New Western Underbridge on Finished Carriageway Use of New Eastern Overbridge on Finished Carriageway, Use of New Eastern Overbridge on Finished Carriageway Eastern Overbridge AD-50000 Earliest Date for Eastern Overbridge Demolition AD-50010 Eastern Overbridge e for Demolition - TO BE CONFIRMED Western Overbridge - Standalone - Assumed Story Programme AD-60000 Western Overbridge South Side / Haul Road Handed Over to Railbridge Contractor - ASSUMED BY EXXON / WDC N/A AD-60010 Western Overbridge Establish / Enable / Construct Bridge / Prep for Install AD-60020 Western Overbridge North Side / PUs Handed over to Railbridge Contractor - BY BB WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE COUNCIL EXXON SITE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Date Revision Checked Approved 26-May-23 Precon Rev 0 NJD NJD Remaining Level of Effort Actual Work Remaining Work Critical Remaining Work Milestone Summary Preconstruction Programme S20029/PC/01 Rev 0 Page 1 of 2 Page 196
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Activity ID Activity Name Original Duration Early Start Early Finish AD-60030 Establish / Enable / North Side / Prep for Install 5 20-Nov-24 26-Nov-24 AD-60040 Western Overbridge Blockade for Railbridge Installation Xmas 2024 5 20-Dec-24* 24-Dec-24 AD-60060 Western Overbridge North Side Finishes / Reinstatement 5 06-Jan-25 10-Jan-25 AD-60065 Western Overbridge North Side Handed Back to BB 0 13-Jan-25 AD-60066 Western Overbridge South Side Main Line Finishes / Reinstatement 5 13-Jan-25 17-Jan-25 AD-60067 Western Overbridge South Side Main Line Handed Back to BB 0 20-Jan-25 AD-60070 Western Overbridge South Side Laydown / Compound / Reinstatement & Demobilisation 20 20-Jan-25 14-Feb-25 AD-60090 Western Overbridge South Side Laydown / Compound Handed Over to BB 0 17-Feb-25 Contractor Key MilestonesContractor Key Milestones 592 01-Nov-23 24-Apr-26 ML01, 02, 03 A82 West JunctionML01, 02, 03 A82 West Junction 548 01-Nov-23 13-Feb-26 KM-ML01-10000 ML01 Proposed Commencement of A82 West Junction 0 01-Nov-23 KM-ML01-10010 ML01 Planned Completion of of A82 West Junction 0 13-Feb-26 ML04 Spine Road Centre-West (Ch 470-1300)ML04 Spine Road Centre-West (Ch 470-1300) 476 23-Jan-24 13-Jan-26 KM-ML04-10000 ML04 Proposed Commencement of Spine Road Centre-West 0 23-Jan-24 KM-ML04-10010 ML04 Planned Completion of Spine Road Centre-West 0 13-Jan-26 ML05 Spine Road Centre-East (Ch 1300-1830)ML05 Spine Road Centre-East (Ch 1300-1830) 418 10-May-24 30-Jan-26 KM-ML05-10000 ML05 Proposed Commencement of Spine Road Centre-East 0 10-May-24 KM-ML05-10010 ML05 Planned Completion of Spine Road Centre-East 0 30-Jan-26 ML06 East Plot Access Link Road (Ch 30-370)ML06 East Plot Access Link Road (Ch 30-370) 140 25-Oct-24 04-Jun-25 KM-ML06-10000 ML06 Proposed Commencement of East Plot Access Road 0 25-Oct-24 KM-ML06-10010 ML06 Planned Completion East Plot Access Road 0 04-Jun-25 ML07 East Spine Access From A814 (Ch 0-120)ML07 East Spine Access From A814 (Ch 0-120) 488 13-Feb-24 19-Feb-26 KM-ML07-10000 ML07 Proposed Commencement of East Spine Access 0 13-Feb-24 KM-ML07-10010 ML07 Planned Completion of East Spine Access 0 19-Feb-26 ML08 East Access Tie-in to A814ML08 East Access Tie-in to A814 457 13-Feb-24 07-Jan-26 KM-ML08-10000 ML08 Proposed Commencement of East Access 0 13-Feb-24 KM-ML08-10010 ML08 Planned Completion of East Access 0 07-Jan-26 ML09 A82 East Dunglass R'boutML09 A82 East Dunglass R'bout 440 18-Jan-24 05-Nov-25 KM-ML09-10000 ML09 Proposed Commencement of A82 Dunglass R'bout & A814 E/B Widening 0 18-Jan-24 KM-ML09-10010 ML09 Planned Completion of A82 Dunglass R'bout & A814 E/B Widening 0 05-Nov-25 PL01 Bulk Fills to Plots OPTIONPL01 Bulk Fills to Plots OPTION 265 13-Dec-24 29-Jan-26 KM-PL01-10020 PL01 Proposed Commencement of Plot Bulk Fills 0 13-Dec-24 KM-PL01-10030 Pl01 Planned Completion of Plot Bulk Fills 0 29-Jan-26 DM01 Demolition of Existing Eastern OverbridgeDM01 Demolition of Existing Eastern Overbridge 37 20-Mar-25 20-May-25 KM-DM01-10000 DM01 Proposed Commencement of Existing Eastern Overbridge 0 20-Mar-25 KM-DM01-10010 DM01 Planned Completion of Demolition of Existing Eastern Overbridge 0 20-May-25 ST01 Eastern Overbridge Excluding FinishesST01 Eastern Overbridge Excluding Finishes 146 20-May-25 15-Dec-25 KM-ST01-10000 ST01 Proposed Commencement of Replacement Eastern Overbridge 0 20-May-25 KM-ST01-10001 ST01 Open Eastern Access Bridge / Spine to Construction Traffic 0 15-Dec-25 DemobilisationDemobilisation 10 19-Feb-26 05-Mar-26 KM-DM01-10020 Proposed Commencement of Demobilisation & Reinstatement 0 19-Feb-26* KM-DM01-10030 Planned Completion of Demobilisation & Reinstatement 0 05-Mar-26 SL01 Soft Landscaping (Seasonal)SL01 Soft Landscaping (Seasonal) 44 13-Feb-26 24-Apr-26 KM-SL-10000 Proposed Commencement of Soft Landscaping (Seasonal) 0 13-Feb-26 KM-SL-10010 Planned Completion of Soft Landscaping Works (Seasonal) 0 24-Apr-26 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 AD-60030 Establish / Enable / North Side / Prep for Install AD-60040 Western Overbridge Blockade for Railbridge Installation Xmas 2024 AD-60060 Western Overbridge North Side Finishes / Reinstatement AD-60065 Western Overbridge North Side Handed Back to BB AD-60066 Western Overbridge South Side Main Line Finishes / Reinstatement AD-60067 Western Overbridge South Side Main Line Handed Back to BB AD-60070 Western Overbridge South Side Laydown / Compound / Reinstatement & Demobilisation AD-60090 Western Overbridge South Side Laydown / Compound Handed Over to BB Contractor Key Milestones ML01, 02, 03 A82 West Junction KM-ML01-10000 ML01 Proposed Commencement of A82 West Junction KM-ML01-10010 ML01 Planned Completion of of A82 West Junction ML04 Spine Road Centre-West (Ch 470-1300) KM-ML04-10000 ML04 Proposed Commencement of Spine Road Centre-West KM-ML04-10010 ML04 Planned Completion of Spine Road Centre-West ML05 Spine Road Centre-East (Ch 1300-1830) KM-ML05-10000 ML05 Proposed Commencement of Spine Road Centre-East KM-ML05-10010 ML05 Planned Completion of Spine Road Centre-East ML06 East Plot Access Link Road (Ch 30-370) KM-ML06-10000 ML06 Proposed Commencement of East Plot Access Road KM-ML06-10010 ML06 Planned Completion East Plot Access Road ML07 East Spine Access From A814 (Ch 0-120) KM-ML07-10000 ML07 Proposed Commencement of East Spine Access KM-ML07-10010 ML07 Planned Completion of East Spine Access ML08 East Access Tie-in to A814 KM-ML08-10000 ML08 Proposed Commencement of East Access KM-ML08-10010 ML08 Planned Completion of East Access ML09 A82 East Dunglass R'bout KM-ML09-10000 ML09 Proposed Commencement of A82 Dunglass R'bout & A814 E/B Widening KM-ML09-10010 ML09 Planned Completion of A82 Dunglass R'bout & A814 E/B Widening PL01 Bulk Fills to Plots OPTION KM-PL01-10020 PL01 Proposed Commencement of Plot Bulk Fills KM-PL01-10030 Pl01 Planned Completion of Plot Bulk Fills DM01 Demolition of Existing Eastern Overbridge KM-DM01-10000 DM01 Proposed Commencement of Existing Eastern Overbridge KM-DM01-10010 DM01 Planned Completion of Demolition of Existing Eastern Overbridge ST01 Eastern Overbridge Excluding Finishes KM-ST01-10000 ST01 Proposed Commencement of Replacement Eastern Overbridge KM-ST01-10001 ST01 Open Eastern Access Bridge / Spine to Construction Traffic Demobilisation KM-DM01-10020 Proposed Commencement of Demobilisation & Reinstatement KM-DM01-10030 Planned Completion of Demobilisation & Reinstatement SL01 Soft Landscaping (Seasonal) KM-SL-10000 Proposed Commencement of Soft Landscaping (Seasonal) KM-SL-10010 Planned Completion of Soft Landscaping Works (Seasonal) WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE COUNCIL EXXON SITE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Date Revision Checked Approved 26-May-23 Precon Rev 0 NJD NJD Remaining Level of Effort Actual Work Remaining Work Critical Remaining Work Milestone Summary Preconstruction Programme S20029/PC/01 Rev 0 Page 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Appendix 2 Glossary of Terms Used in Full Business Case and Background Documentation INITIALISMS AND ACRONYMS AMSC Approval of Matters Specified in Conditions BEIS Department of Business, Enterprise and Industrial Strategy BRMF Benefits Realisation Management Framework CAB Cabinet CEG Chief Executives’ Group CTMP Construction Traffic Management Plan DWP Department for Work and Pensions EDG Economic Delivery Group FBC Full Business Case GCC Glasgow City Council GCR Glasgow City Region GDP Gross Domestic Product GEA Gross External Area GIA Gross Internal Area GVA Gross Value Added GCVCD Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal HCA Homes & Communities Agency LOG Lead Officers’ Group NIA Net Internal Area OB Optimism Bias OBC Outline Business Case PBC Programme Business Case PMO Programme Management Office PPiP Planning Permission In Principle RES Regional Economic Strategy SBC Strategic Business Case SCDI Scottish Council for Development and Industry SDI Scottish Development International SE Scottish Enterprise SG Scottish Government SIMD Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation SOA Super Output Areas TEE Transport Economic Efficiency WDC West Dunbartonshire Council APPENDIX 2 Page 198
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Appendix 2 DEFINITIONS In the Full Business Case and background documentation following expressions shall have the meanings respectively ascribed to them: Appendices means the appendices annexed to the Final Business Case.. Approved Projects means those Projects within the Skills and Employment Programme and Innovation Programme which are approved following the approvals process set out in Appendix 5 and Projects which form part of the Infrastructure Fund which are approved following the approvals process set out in section 12.2. Assurance Framework means the document agreed by all constituent authorities in 2021 (Version 2.5) providing the governance arrangements for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal. Benefit Realisation Management Framework means the document setting out the benefits realisation management arrangements at both the Project and Programme levels. Business Case means the document which records the current state of evidence and thinking concerning a Project’s development, approvals and implementation. It is developed through an iterative process from a Strategic Business Case, an Outline Business Case, and a Full Business Case. Cabinet means the Glasgow City Region Cabinet, a Joint Committee established under Section 57 of the Local Government (Scotland) Act 1973, constituted and governed by the Joint Committee Agreement. Chief Executives’ Group means the management group described in Appendix 1 of this Assurance Framework and established in terms of Clause 4 of the Joint Committee Agreement. City Deal means the Glasgow City Region City Deal agreed between the Member Authorities and the UK and Scottish Governments. Page 199
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Appendix 2 City Region Programme means the programme of works which takes account of all of the City Deal Projects which sit under the City Deal from the Infrastructure Programme, the Innovation Programme and the Skills and Employment Programme. Community Benefit Strategy means the document setting out the approach of the Member Authorities to achieving Community Benefits through the City Deal Economic Impact Assessment Guidance means the document setting out how a Project’s estimated economic impacts should be calculated. Farebox Revenue means all revenues collected from fare paying passengers either in the form of cash or pass sales revenue. Gateway Review or Gateway means the formal review process undertaken for UK and Scottish Governments to determine the release of future grant. There will be a series of five-yearly Gateway Reviews commencing in 2019. Glasgow City Region or Region means the combined local government areas of the Member Authorities. Gross domestic product is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period. Green Book means Her Majesty’s Treasury’s Green Book 2018 guidance on how to appraise policies, programmes and projects. It also provides guidance on the design and use of monitoring and evaluation before, during and after implementation. Gross External Area refers to the whole area of a building taking each floor into account, including perimeter walls Gross Internal Area A measure of the internal area of a building which includes non usable areas e.g. internal walls. Gross Value Added is an economic measure of the additional value of goods and services produced in an area, industry or sector of the economy. Homes & Communities Agency The former name for Homes England: England’s Housing and Regeneration Agency.. Infrastructure Fund Grant Offer Letter is the letter from the Scottish Government to the Chief Executive Officer of the Accountable Body offering the annual City Deal Infrastructure Fund grant award for the coming financial year and the terms and Page 200
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Appendix 2 conditions which apply to the offer including those stated under the Tripartite Financial Agreement. Member Authority means East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire Councils, as may be amended from time to time in accordance with the Joint Committee Agreement. Member Authority Report means the monitoring report submitted by the Member Authority to the Programme Management Office on the operational delivery status and management of its City Deal Projects. Net Internal Area The net internal area (NIA) of a building is the usable area measured to the internal finish of the perimeter or party walls, ignoring skirting boards, at each floor level. Net internal area includes all areas that can be used for a particular purpose. Optimism Bias refers to our tendency to overestimate our chances of positive experiences and underestimate our chances of negative experiences. Where used in a Business Case context it represents a balancing payment (sometimes additional time) used to compensate for the tendency. Portfolio means an area of work where one of the Cabinet members will act as spokesperson and policy lead for Glasgow City Region. Programme Management Office or PMO means the staff employed by the Accountable Body or seconded to the Accountable Body to undertake the operational functions of the Cabinet. Programme means the programme of works and services which will collectively deliver the West Dunbartonshire City Deal Project. Programme Prioritisation Framework is the Key Supporting Governance Document for the ts out the qualitative and quantitative criteria against which Expression(s) of Interest for proposed new Projects will be assessed and prioritised. Programme Status Report means the formal quarterly report prepared by the PMO using information provided by the Member Authorities on their Project status and containing overall Programme status and Programme risk register. Page 201
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Appendix 2 Project Procurement Strategy means the Member Authority’s plan for procuring all the goods, works and services required to deliver the Project. Project Status Report means the report which is the main document for recording, monitoring and reporting Project progress and compliance with the terms of the grant agreements entered into between the Accountable Body and a Member Authority. Risk Management Strategy sets out the risk management and mitigation arrangements for the City Deal Programme and its Projects. Regional Projects means Infrastructure Projects which: require collaborative working across two or more Member Authorities; and/or are located in two or more Member Authorities; and/or whose users are Region- wide. Skills and Employment Programme (formerly referred to as the Labour Market Programme within the City Deal Agreement) means the proposals to reduce unemployment in the Glasgow City Region all as more fully specified in the City Deal Agreement. Super Output Areas are made up of smaller output areas which are the lowest geographical level at which census estimates are provided. Third Party means any party other than a Member Authority, who is responsible for the delivery of a City Deal Project and “Third Parties” shall be construed accordingly. Transport Economic Efficiency provides guidance on how to assess the contribution which a transport option may have on economic welfare through consideration of the resultant transport costs and benefits. Tripartite Financial Agreement is the Agreement signed in 2014 between the Member Authorities, the UK and Scottish Governments setting out how the financial consequences of the City Deal will be managed. West Dunbartonshire City Deal Project means the redevelopment of the former oil terminal at Bowling - the Exxon site development project all in line with the Full Business Case. Page 202