Item 12 Appendix 6
West Dunbartonshire Council · 29 March 2023
Back to West Dunbartonshire Council — 29 March 2023 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
Page 1
West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators Appendix 6 General Services 31,168 79,916 68,004 28,206 14,619 11,666 11,056 11,006 10,800 10,799 10,799 Capital receipts 10 (0) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital grants 12,186 26,007 17,650 14,825 8,080 7,087 6,607 6,607 6,607 6,607 6,607 Revenue 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other funding 722 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net financing need for the year 18,177 53,840 50,354 13,381 6,539 4,579 4,449 4,399 4,193 4,192 4,192 HRA 37,831 66,277 52,627 42,374 39,311 22,336 21,487 21,917 22,355 21,854 21,854 Capital receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital grants 10,896 8,923 6,125 4,000 4,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 Revenue 5,386 840 443 2,792 2,793 200 155 454 1,044 2,253 2,253 Other funding 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net financing need for the year 21,549 56,514 46,059 35,582 32,518 22,136 21,332 21,463 21,311 19,601 19,601 General Services 31,168 79,916 68,004 28,206 14,619 11,666 11,056 11,006 10,800 10,799 10,799 HRA 37,831 66,277 52,627 42,374 39,311 22,336 21,487 21,917 22,355 21,854 21,854 Capital Expenditure 68,999 146,193 120,631 70,580 53,930 34,002 32,543 32,922 33,155 32,653 32,653 Capital receipts 10 (0) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital grants 23,082 34,930 23,775 18,825 12,080 7,087 6,607 6,607 6,607 6,607 6,607 Revenue 5,459 840 443 2,792 2,793 200 155 454 1,044 2,253 2,253 Other funding 722 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net financing need for the year 39,727 110,354 96,413 48,962 39,058 26,715 25,781 25,862 25,504 23,793 23,793 Capital Financing Requirement CFR – General Services 400,842 448,441 491,864 497,667 495,992 492,506 489,394 486,504 481,693 476,402 470,797 CFR – HRA 305,400 353,971 390,959 417,036 439,758 450,402 459,625 468,526 477,018 484,059 491,874 Total CFR 706,242 802,412 882,823 914,703 935,751 942,909 949,018 955,030 958,711 960,461 962,671 Movement in CFR 26,397 96,170 80,411 31,880 21,048 7,158 6,110 6,011 3,681 1,750 2,210 Movement in CFR represented by Net financing need for the year (above) 39,727 110,354 96,413 48,962 39,058 26,715 25,781 25,862 25,504 23,793 23,793 Loans Fund Review - - - - - - - - - - - Less scheduled debt amortisation and other financing movements (13,330) (14,184) (16,001) (17,082) (18,010) (19,558) (19,671) (19,850) (21,823) (22,043) (21,583) Movement in CFR 26,397 96,170 80,411 31,880 21,048 7,158 6,110 6,011 3,681 1,750 2,210 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Financed by: Table B - Capital Financing Requirement £000 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Forecast 2032/33 Financed by: General Services and HRA Combined £000 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32£000 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Financed by: Table A - Net Capital Financing Need General Services and HRA Shown Separately £000 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28
Page 2
West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators Appendix 6 Table C - Internal Loan Fund Repayment Profile (excluding PPP repayments) £000 £000 £000 Under 12 months 2,527 7,017 9,545 2 years to 5 years 22,121 36,314 58,436 6 years to 10 years 41,323 61,543 102,866 11 years to 15 years 49,846 57,689 107,535 16 years to 20 years 47,793 65,251 113,045 21 years to 25 years 42,074 69,823 111,897 26 years to 30 years 36,673 52,710 89,383 31 years to 35 years 36,261 34,069 70,330 36 years to 40 years 23,468 19,776 43,244 41 years to 45 years 12,729 6,670 19,399 46 years to 50 years 12,640 4,328 16,968 51 years to 55 years 17,482 6,656 24,139 56 years to 60 years 27,070 9,506 36,576 60 years plus 133,862 1,176 135,038 General Services (Exc PPP) 4.06% 4.09% 4.89% 5.14% 5.50% 5.60% 5.85% 5.96% 6.43% 6.57% 6.57% General Services 8.43% 7.63% 8.92% 8.62% 9.01% 9.11% 9.37% 9.51% 3576.56% 3582.69% 3616.90% HRA 3.19% 3.62% 8.26% 12.08% 14.95% 17.40% 19.86% 21.46% 22.63% 23.67% 25.24% External Debt Debt at 1 April 585,408 615,175 714,483 798,483 834,681 860,438 872,255 882,127 891,934 900,095 906,696 New Borrowing - CFR 29,767 99,308 84,000 36,198 25,757 11,816 9,873 9,806 8,161 6,601 7,198 Debt at 31 March 615,175 714,483 798,483 834,681 860,438 872,255 882,127 891,934 900,095 906,696 913,894 Long Term Liabilities at 1 April 92,485 89,115 85,977 82,388 78,070 73,361 68,702 64,939 61,144 56,664 51,813 Change in Long Term Liabilities (3,370) (3,138) (3,589) (4,318) (4,709) (4,659) (3,763) (3,795) (4,480) (4,851) (4,989) Long Term Liabilities at 31 March 89,115 85,977 82,388 78,070 73,361 68,702 64,939 61,144 56,664 51,813 46,825 Gross Debt at 31 March 704,290 800,460 880,871 912,751 933,799 940,957 947,066 953,078 956,759 958,509 960,719 Capital Financing Requirement 706,242 802,412 882,823 914,703 935,751 942,909 949,018 955,030 958,711 960,461 962,671 Under / (Over) Borrowing 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 1,952 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Table E - Gross External Debt compared to the Underlying Need to Borrow (CFR) £000 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Table D - Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue Stream Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 General Services HRA Total
Page 3
West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators Appendix 6 External Debt 676,693 785,931 878,332 918,149 946,482 959,480 970,340 981,127 990,104 997,365 1,005,284 Long Term Liability 98,026 94,575 90,627 85,877 80,697 75,572 71,433 67,259 62,331 56,995 51,507 Total 774,719 880,506 968,958 1,004,026 1,027,179 1,035,052 1,041,773 1,048,386 1,052,435 1,054,360 1,056,791 External Debt 738,210 857,380 958,180 1,001,617 1,032,526 1,046,705 1,058,553 1,070,320 1,080,114 1,088,035 1,096,673 Long Term Liability 106,938 103,172 108,865 103,684 98,033 92,443 87,927 83,373 77,997 72,176 66,190 Total 845,148 960,552 1,067,046 1,105,302 1,130,559 1,139,148 1,146,480 1,153,693 1,158,111 1,160,211 1,162,863 Bank Rate 4.25% 4.50% 4.50% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.75% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 5yr PWLB Rate 4.00% 4.00% 3.90% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60% 3.50% 3.40% 3.30% 3.20% 3.10% 3.10% 3.10% 10yr PWLB Rate 4.20% 4.20% 4.10% 4.00% 3.90% 3.80% 3.60% 3.50% 3.50% 3.40% 3.30% 3.30% 3.20% 25yr PWLB Rate 4.60% 4.60% 4.40% 4.30% 4.20% 4.10% 3.90% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60% 3.50% 3.40% 3.40% 50yr PWLB Rate 4.30% 4.30% 4.20% 4.10% 3.90% 3.80% 3.60% 3.60% 3.40% 3.30% 3.20% 3.20% 3.10% Long term rating 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years AAA 0.04% 0.09% 0.17% 0.25% 0.34% AA 0.02% 0.04% 0.09% 0.16% 0.23% A 0.05% 0.14% 0.25% 0.37% 0.52% BBB 0.13% 0.36% 0.63% 0.96% 1.30% BB 0.62% 1.77% 3.05% 4.32% 5.52% B 2.73% 6.69% 10.34% 13.32% 15.71% CCC 19.10% 27.28% 32.05% 35.55% 38.34% Note - The AAA default risk is actually higher than the AA default risk due the number of AAA rated institutions left Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Table I - Historic Risk of Default Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Table H - Interest Rate Forecast Link Asset Services Interest Rate View Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Table G - Authorised Limit £000 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Table F - Operational Boundary £000 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27
Page 4
West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators Appendix 6 Investment Fitch Category (or equivalent) Money Limit F1+ / AA- £10million F1 / A- £5 million 2 F1/A- £10 million (per group) 3 £5 million 4 £5 million 5 As in 1 above £10million and £5million Sector Limit £25 million Fund Limit £5 million 7 No limit Sector imit £25 million Fund Limit £5 million £000 2021/22 Estimate 1% -1% Variable Rate Debt Payments N/A N/A N/A Variable Rate Investment income 75 150 (75) Table K - Sensitivity to Interest Rate Movements 364 days 364 days 6 Very liquid no time limit applies 6 months 8 364 days Time Limit 1 364 days 364 days Overnight Table J - Counterparty Limits
Page 5
West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators Appendix 6 Limits on fixed interest rates Limits on variable interest rates Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Under 12 months 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 12 months to 2 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 2 years to 5 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 5 years to 10 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 10 years to 20 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 20 years to 30 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 30 years to 40 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 40 years to 50 years 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 50 years to 60 years 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 60 years to 70 years 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% Principal sums invested > 364 & 365 days £7m Maturity Structure of fixed interest rate borrowing £nil £7m £nil £7m £nil 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% Table L- Treasury Management Limits on Activity 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 Upper Upper Upper