Item 7-Appendix 6
West Dunbartonshire Council · 26 March 2025
Back to West Dunbartonshire Council — 26 March 2025 and its agenda
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West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators Table A - Net Capital Financing Need General Services and HRA Shown Separately £000 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Forecast 2033/34 General Services 58,257 73,780 47,193 26,267 11,037 11,030 10,866 10,865 10,624 10,880 Financed by: Capital receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital grants 17,332 40,422 11,752 5,706 3,407 3,407 3,407 3,407 3,407 3,407 Revenue 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other funding 2,258 2,956 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net financing need for the year 38,417 30,402 35,441 20,561 7,630 7,623 7,459 7,458 7,217 7,473 £000 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Forecast 2033/34 HRA 66,014 70,338 70,296 53,083 45,561 54,196 0 0 0 0 Financed by: Capital receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital grants 9,217 15,323 11,900 4,800 5,800 12,600 0 0 0 0 Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other funding 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 Net financing need for the year 56,796 55,014 58,395 48,282 39,760 41,595 0 0 0 0 General Services and HRA Combined £000 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Forecast 2033/34 General Services 58,257 73,780 47,193 26,267 11,037 11,030 10,866 10,865 10,624 10,880 HRA 66,014 70,338 70,296 53,083 45,561 54,196 0 0 0 0 Capital Expenditure 124,271 144,117 117,489 79,350 56,598 65,226 10,866 10,865 10,624 10,880 Capital receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital grants 26,549 55,745 23,652 10,506 9,207 16,007 3,407 3,407 3,407 3,407 Revenue 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other funding 2,259 2,957 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 Net financing need for the year 95,213 85,415 93,836 68,843 47,390 49,218 7,459 7,458 7,217 7,473 Table B - Capital Financing Requirement £000 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Forecast 2033/34 Capital Financing Requirement CFR – General Services 471,897 483,178 532,254 557,263 557,181 579,463 574,552 569,626 564,562 559,609 CFR – HRA 401,987 464,230 491,312 514,397 557,181 579,463 574,552 569,626 564,562 559,609 Total CFR 873,884 947,408 1,023,566 1,071,661 1,114,362 1,158,927 1,149,105 1,139,252 1,129,125 1,119,218 Movement in CFR 73,524 76,158 48,094 42,701 44,565 (9,822) (9,853) (10,127) (9,907) Movement in CFR represented by Net financing need for the year (above) 95,213 85,415 93,836 68,843 47,390 49,218 7,459 7,458 7,217 7,473 Loans Fund Review - - - - - - - - - - Less scheduled debt amortisation and other financing movements (95,213) (11,891) (17,678) (20,749) (4,688) (4,653) (17,281) (17,311) (17,344) (17,380) Movement in CFR - 73,524 76,158 48,094 42,701 44,565 (9,822) (9,853) (10,127) (9,907) Table C - Internal Loan Fund Repayment Profile (excluding PPP repayments) General Services HRA Total £M £M £M Under 12 months 4.551 9.502 14.053 2 years to 5 years 13.800 28.363 42.163 6 years to 10 years 25.637 49.888 75.525 11 years to 15 years 29.292 44.056 73.347 16 years to 20 years 25.043 50.144 75.187 21 years to 25 years 17.621 48.454 66.075 26 years to 30 years 12.166 28.263 40.429 31 years to 35 years 10.438 7.010 17.448 36 years to 40 years 12.097 5.568 17.665 41 years to 45 years 12.840 4.553 17.393 46 years to 50 years 15.130 6.178 21.308 51 years to 55 years 20.586 8.705 29.291 56 years to 60 years 25.425 7.739 33.164 60 years plus 136.094 39.744 175.838 Total 360.720 338.166 698.886 Table D - Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue Stream Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Forecast 2033/34 General Services (Exc PPP) 12.37% 12.96% 14.12% 14.32% 13.35% 13.27% 13.71% 13.80% 14.01% 14.20% General Services 17.63% 18.12% 19.15% 19.19% 18.07% 17.86% 18.16% 18.06% 18.06% 18.01% HRA 49.89% 53.00% 57.60% 61.21% 49.61% 47.39% 44.96% 41.92% 38.89% 36.49% Table E - Gross External Debt compared to the Underlying Need to Borrow (CFR) £000 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Forecast 2033/34 External Debt Debt at 1 April 460,841 549,000 635,303 709,632 783,929 832,821 876,343 921,695 912,686 903,676 New Borrowing - CFR 88,159 86,303 74,329 74,297 48,891 43,523 45,351 (9,009) (9,010) (9,251) Debt at 31 March 549,000 635,303 709,632 783,929 832,821 876,343 921,695 912,686 903,676 894,426 Long Term Liabilities at 1 April 84,560 84,041 85,702 84,897 84,122 83,325 82,503 81,717 80,904 80,060 Change in Long Term Liabilities (519) 1,661 (805) (776) (797) (821) (786) (813) (843) (877) Long Term Liabilities at 31 March 84,041 85,702 84,897 84,122 83,325 82,503 81,717 80,904 80,060 79,184 Gross Debt at 31 March 633,041 721,005 794,529 868,051 916,145 958,847 1,003,412 993,590 983,737 973,609 Capital Financing Requirement 873,884 947,408 1,023,566 1,071,661 1,114,362 1,158,927 1,149,105 1,139,252 1,129,125 1,119,218 Under / (Over) Borrowing 240,843 226,403 229,037 203,610 198,217 200,080 145,693 145,662 145,388 145,608 Table F - Operational Boundary £000 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Forecast 2033/34 External Debt 603,900 698,833 780,595 862,322 916,103 963,978 1,013,864 1,003,955 994,044 983,868 Long Term Liability 92,445 94,272 93,387 92,534 91,657 90,754 89,889 88,994 88,066 87,102 Total 696,345 793,106 873,982 954,856 1,007,760 1,054,731 1,103,753 1,092,949 1,082,110 1,070,970 Table G - Authorised Limit £000 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2032/33 Forecast 2033/34 External Debt 658,800 762,364 851,558 940,715 999,385 1,051,612 1,106,034 1,095,223 1,084,412 1,073,311 Long Term Liability 100,849 102,842 101,877 100,946 99,990 99,004 98,060 97,084 96,072 95,020 Total 759,649 865,206 953,435 1,041,661 1,099,374 1,150,616 1,204,094 1,192,308 1,180,484 1,168,331 Table H - Interest Rate Forecast Link Asset Services Interest Rate View Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26 Sep-26 Dec-26 Bank Rate 4.50% 4.25% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.75% 3.75% 3.50% 5yr PWLB Rate 5.00% 4.90% 4.80% 4.70% 4.60% 4.50% 4.40% 4.40% 10yr PWLB Rate 5.30% 5.20% 5.10% 5.00% 4.90% 4.80% 4.70% 4.70% 25yr PWLB Rate 5.80% 5.70% 5.60% 5.50% 5.40% 5.30% 5.20% 5.10% 50yr PWLB Rate 5.50% 5.40% 5.30% 5.20% 5.10% 5.00% 4.90% 4.80% Table I - Historic Risk of Default Long term rating 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years AAA 0.04% 0.09% 0.16% 0.24% 0.33% AA 0.02% 0.04% 0.09% 0.15% 0.21% A 0.05% 0.13% 0.23% 0.35% 0.49% BBB 0.14% 0.37% 0.64% 0.95% 1.25% BB 0.64% 1.80% 3.13% 4.43% 5.62% B 2.64% 6.48% 10.04% 13.16% 15.68% CCC 18.74% 26.75% 32.17% 35.74% 38.35% Note - The AAA default risk is actually higher than the AA default risk due the number of AAA rated institutions left Table J - Counterparty Limits Investment Fitch Category (or equivalent) Money Limit Time Limit F1+ / AA- £10million1 F1 / A- £5 million 364 days 2 £5 million Overnight 3 £5 million 364 days 4 As in 1 above £10million and £5million 364 days Sector Limit £25 million 5 Fund Limit £5 million Very liquid no time limit applies 6 No limit 6 months Sector Limit £25 million 7 Fund Limit £5 million 364 days Table K - Sensitivity to Interest Rate Movements £000 1% -1% Variable Rate Debt Payments N/A N/A N/A Variable Rate Investment income 21,000 210 -210 Table L- Treasury Management Limits on Activity 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 Upper Upper Upper Limits on fixed interest rates 100% 100% 100% Limits on variable interest rates 50% 50% 50% Maturity Structure of fixed interest rate borrowing Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Under 12 months 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 12 months to 2 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 2 years to 5 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 5 years to 10 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 10 years to 20 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 20 years to 30 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 30 years to 40 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 40 years to 50 years 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 50 years to 60 years 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 60 years to 70 years 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% Principal sums invested > 364 & 365 days £nil £7m £nil £7m £nil £7m Appendix 6