Item 10 - Long Term Financial Strategy
West Dunbartonshire Council · 26 August 2026
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WEST DUNBARTONSHIRE COUNCIL Report by Chief Officer - Resources Council: 26 August 2026 Subject: Long Term Financial Strategy 1. PURPOSE 1.1 This report updates the Council’s long term financial strategy which was last updated in December 2023. 2. RECOMMENDATIONS 2.1 Members are asked to endorse the medium to long term financial strategy for the Council and approve the Council’s reserves and balances policy detailed in appendix 1 to the Long-Term Financial Strategy. 3. BACKGROUND 3.1 Audit Scotland recommend that all councils should have long term financial strategies in place, ideally covering five to ten years. The strategy, attached as Appendix 1 sets out: the economic and national context within which the Council operates medium to longer term forecasts for the revenue budget including assumptions about key variables such as Scottish Government funding, pay awards, inflation and cost pressures the Council’s council tax rate in relation to rates across Scotland the position in relation to the Council’s general fund reserve future revenue risks and issues issues relating to financing the Council’s capital plan the Council’s reserves and balances policy. 4. MAIN ISSUES 4.1 The Council’s Long Term Financial Strategy is one of the Council’s key strategic documents which supports the delivery of the Council’s Strategic Plan by: outlining the Council’s high level financial position over the life of the strategy planning for a sustainable revenue budget and capital investment programme which support the Council’s key priorities ensuring the Council is fully aware of the financial challenges and uncertainties that it faces and is in a strong position to continue to deliver the best possible quality and range of services within available resources ITEM 10
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increasing the wider community’s understanding of the Council’s financial position and the challenges it is facing in balancing its budget. 4.2 The Strategy was last approved by the Council on 20 December 2023 although it should be noted that the Council is provided with updates on financial assumption and the future revenue budget gaps at least four times a year through the Financial Update reports. 4.3 The strategy provides financial estimates for the period 2027/28 to 2031/32 in detail and also considers longer term issues beyond that five year window that the Council needs to be sighted on. It is based on a set of assumptions and provides a range of potential scenarios and the financial implications. 4.4 Exhibit 1 summarises the total cumulative budget gaps in the best case, mid- range and worst case scenarios. It illustrates that, in the mid-range scenario the Council are faced with a budget gap of £10.005m in 2027/28 rising cumulatively to £52.161m by 2031/32. It also shows that the cumulative 5 year gap ranges from £49.225m in the best-case scenario to £55.368m in the worst case. Exhibit 1 – Estimated Budget Gaps (Cumulative) – Scenario Analysis Scenario 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 Best Case 7,069 21,393 31,263 40,192 49,225 Mid-Range 10,005 24,329 34,198 43,128 52,161 Worst Case 13,212 27,536 37,406 46,335 55,368 4.5 In addition to providing revenue projections and assumptions the Strategy also sets out the position in relation to the economic and national context within which the Council operates and provides information on the Council’s council tax rate, general fund reserve, Council’s capital plan and treasury management. 4.6 The medium-term estimates and assumptions detailed in the Strategy will continue to be reviewed on a regular basis and reported to the Council as part of regular Financial Update reports. 4.7 The Strategy also incorporates the Council’s reserves and balances policy which Committee is asked to approve. 5. PEOPLE IMPLICATIONS 5.1 The strategy itself does not have any direct implications on the workforce; however any cost reducing options generated to close the projected budget gaps will almost certainly have implications for the workforce. 6. FINANCIAL AND PROCUREMENT IMPLICATIONS 6.1 The strategy does not have any direct financial implications. However, it does
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identify in future years the Council is facing budget gaps which will require Council decisions to mitigate. There are no direct procurement implications arising from this report. 7. RISK ANALYSIS 7.1 There are a number of assumptions within the Financial Strategy, a number of which are outwith the direct control of the Council – such as pay awards, inflation and the Scottish Government financial settlement. These assumptions as currently applied result in the identified budget gaps. The gaps could vary from those indicated if the Council identifies further cost pressures or mitigates some. 8. EQUALITIES IMPACT ASSESSMENT (EIA) 8.1 None directly from this report but any proposals to address the estimated budget gap will need to consider equality issues. 9. CONSULTATION 9.1 The assumptions and cost pressures built into the Long-Term Financial Strategy are considered by the Senior Management Team on an ongoing basis and the views of Legal Services have been requested on this report. 10. STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT 10.1 Proper budgetary control and sound financial practice are cornerstones of good governance and support Council and officers to pursue the strategic priorities of the Council’s Strategic Plan. 10.2 The General Services revenue budget contributes to all categories by providing funding in specific areas to help the Council achieve and develop these priorities. Laurence Slavin Chief Officer - Resources Date: 26 August 2026 Person to Contact: Laurence Slavin, Chief Officer - Resources E-mail: laurence.slavin@west-dunbarton.gov.uk Appendix 1 – West Dunbartonshire Council Long Term Financial Strategy Background Papers Budget Report to Council – 4 March 2026 Financial Update Report to Council – 17 June 2026