CPP Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (Andy MacPherson)
Argyll and Bute Council · 6 December 2024
Back to Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership - Management Committee — 6 December 2024 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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Update to CPP Management Committee December 2024 1
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Outline • Request to the CPP Management Committe • Recap: Remit and Governance • Key Principles and Vision • Process and Progress • Climate Trends • Climate Risks • Findings, Current Action and Opportunities • Priority Areas for Action • Next Steps 2
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Request to the CPP • To endorse the overall approach and proposed main areas of opportunity • Thoughts on participation to inform developing the Action Plan around those areas, aligned to the CPP Outcomes • To agree to diverting project resources from travel and equipment to risk assessment 3
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Remit A CPP initiative to develop a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for the region addressing • Mitigation to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions: climate friendly • Adaptation to unavoidable impacts of climate change: climate ready • Engagement to ensure inclusion: climate just “The CPP is the group of organisations and community representatives working together to achieve improvements across Argyll and Bute in ways which promote prevention, reduce inequalities and build community capacity.” 4
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Governance • Reporting to CPP Management Group overall • Review and support from Steering Group and Climate Change Working Group • Employed by Argyll Countryside Trust • Collaborating with AB Climate Action Network • Funding thanks to A&BC, NHSH, NS, TSI Savings on Travel, Equipment, Recruitment are projected: Steering Group supports proposal to combine with Technical/Consultant budget to fund – Risk Assessment with Community Wellbeing emphasis £20k – Mapping to inform landscape/area scale opportunities £1k 5
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Key Principles, Vision o Embed just transition throughout o Align with CPP outcomes and within CPP agency o Make links, address gaps o Methodology from existing climate strategies o Complement not replace partners’ existing action o Compatible with existing reporting requirements o Make it Simple and Short We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate 6
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Process and Progress 7
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Progress and Process Top Down/Read • Literature review • Meetings with CPP and wider stakeholders • Support from Sniffer, SSN • UK Climate Change Risk Assessment • Input to National Adaptation Strategy Ground Up/Lived • Steering Group • ABCAN Hubs • Personal/serendipity • Feedback from Area CPGs Needs more on community level impacts and opportunities – LPPs, risk assessment 8
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Climate Trends - Argyll • Hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters • More variable weather, more severe weather events • Sea level rise and storm surge • Wild card: Gulf Stream collapse? 9
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Climate Trends • Hotter, drier summers • Warmer, wetter winters • More variable weather • More intense and frequent severe weather events • Sea level rise and storm surge 10
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Local ClimateTrends • Climate trends for Argyll by Sniffer • Zooms into 16 settlements • Derived from global and national UKCP modelling • Hard to model for wind and storm surge • Some “not coastal locations” 11
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Trends – MAKI 12 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Sea Level Rise projections at Rothesay RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2 3 4 5 Average annual precipitation rate at Campbeltown (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate • Average annual air temperature at Inverary is predicted to increase to approximately 10.5°C by 2080; Tayvallich 13°C • Average annual precipitation rate in Campbeltown predicted to broadly stay steady, but UKCP projections suggest a 10% increase for southern Kintyre • Sea Level at Port Ellen tidal gauge site is projected to rise by between 0.59m and 0.94m 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 6 7 8 9 10 11 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Inverary (°C) Observed temperature…
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UK Climate Risk Assessment The most comprehensive existing assessment of our present understanding of climate risks and opportunities for Scotland (2021, for update 2026) Set of 61 risks grouped by o Infrastructure o Business & Industry o Health, Communities, Built Environment o Natural Assets o International Dimensions o Scoping exercise by Steering Group to bring In/Out of scope for strategy and reduce to a manageable number
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Risk Scoping From this From This To this • Flooding (water courses and surface water) • Heavy rainfall, storms and landslides • Temperature change, heatwaves and drought • Wildfires • Sea level rise & coastal erosion • Multi-hazards affecting people, species, habitats • Anything else?
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Risk Scoping: to this • Heavy rainfall, storms, landslides 84% • Flooding 66% • Sea level rise and coastal impacts 47% • Temperature change, heatwave, drought 25% • Multi-hazards 25% • Wildfires 19% • Don’t know 3% % figures indicate reactions from CPP Full Partnership Crossover with Community Resilience • Flooding • Drought • Heatwave • Storms and Gales • Landslides – not just the A83 RBT! • Pandemic Influenza • Emerging infectious diseases • Animal Health/Disease • Wildfire • Food supply contamination • Reservoir Dam collapse • NETS Failure (Business Continuity) • Cyber (Business Continuity) • Events and Festivals 15
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Gaps and Opportunities Gap analysis comprising • Literature review – National climate plans – CPP partner climate plans – Other A&B strategies • Meetings with CPP and wider stakeholders • Support from Adaptation Scotland/Sniffer, SSN • Feedback from Climate Action Hubs • Included suggestions made about rather than just by CPP member organisations
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Areas of Opportunity From this To this • Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training • Green Skills Development • Grid and Telecomms Infrastructure • Policy Input • Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration • Risk/Economic Assessment Support • Anything Else?
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Priority Areas for Action Already a huge amount of activity at all levels and potential co benefits • Extended, vulnerable comms/ transport links • Green/blue infrastructure: land use, forest and peat restoration • Grid capacity and community share in renewables • Applicability of national programmes to A&B geography • Circular economy and community wealth building • Community (including business) resilience and skills development Climate Change impacts upon and is impacted by every facet of the CPP agenda • Policy Influence 65% • Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training 61% • Skills Development 61% • Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration 48% • Risk/Economic Assessment 39% • Infrastructure 23% • Anything else in CPP scope of influence? 3% % figures indicate feedback from CPP Full Partnership 18
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Next Steps Dec-Feb Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov 2025 Final draft Strategy to Dec CPP Final Strategy and Action Plan to CPP Action Plan and project development, ongoing risk assessment informed by engagement Review, refresh and finalise New BAU Action Plan and project development, ongoing risk assessment informed by engagement Draft Action Plan to CCWG, Update to Area CPGs and CPP Update to CCWG, Area CPGs, CPP 19
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Request to the CPP • To endorse the overall approach and proposed main areas of opportunity • Thoughts on participation to inform developing the Action Plan around those areas, aligned to the CPP Outcomes • To agree to diverting project resources from travel and equipment to risk assessment Andy Macpherson andy@act-now.org.uk 20