Census / Population Update (David Murdoch)
Argyll and Bute Council · 6 December 2024
Back to Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership - Management Committee — 6 December 2024 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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Data and the Census 6/12/2024 ► DAVID MURDOCH DATA PROGRAMME MANAGER
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL NRS Published Population Data Since 2020, National Records of Scotland have published the following population figures for Argyll & Bute in 2022: Released by NRS Population Figure Effective Date Description 24/03/20 84,321 2022 A projection forward from the NRS 2018 estimate[1] 14/09/23 86,000 20/03/22 Rounded figure for the 2022 census day[2] 26/03/24 87,920 30/06/22 Mid-Year Population Estimate[3] 31/05/24 85,953 20/03/22 Actual figure for the 2022 census day[4] [1] [2] [3] [4] See final slide for sources
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Population Change: 1981 - 2023 2011 Census 2022 Census 87,920 (2022) 90,948 (1981) 85,430 (2020) 85,953 (census)88,166 (census) 93,990 (1989) Mid-Year Estimates 84,321 Projection forward by NRS to 2022 from their 2018 estimate. 87,810 (2023)
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Census Change: 2011 - 2022 Impacted by Impacted by the Naval Base the Naval Base DifferenceDifference
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL The Census Difference is the Base See sources[5]
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL NRS Projection: 2018 - 2043
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Population Change: 1982 - 2022
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Population Change: 1982 - 2022 Argyll & Bute Highland Scotland Dundee City
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Population Change: 1989 - 2023 128.6% 118.0% 113.7% 108.1% 107.6% 96.5% 93.4% 90.8% 86.9% 84.2% 136.2% 100% Index
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL 1,200 800 400 NRS Net Migration Data (A&B) Source: NRS, https://scotland.shinyapps.io/nrs-local-area-migration/ 0 Covid 19 -100
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL NRS Net Migration Data Source: NRS, https://scotland.shinyapps.io/nrs-local-area-migration/ Rate per 1,000 Population
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Population Change 2020-2022
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL International/UK Migration Source: 2022 Census
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Census Change: 2011 to 2022 Population balance shifting to over 55s. Increase in the proportion of one person households
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Proportion Aged 65+ Increasing
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Proportion Age 16-64 Reducing
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Proportion of Under-16s Reducing
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Children in Poverty The percentage of children in Low Income Families*. Argyll & Bute’s overall rate is better than the average for Scottish local authorities. Argyll & Bute (19.4%) * Source: DWP children in low-income families (relative poverty measure, before housing costs)
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Areas Above Scotland Average 21.8% Average for Scotland (2022/23) *Children in Low Income Families (relative) * *
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Census Conclusions ► All of the population data referred to comes directly from the National Records of Scotland (NRS). ► Argyll & Bute has seen population decline from its post-1980 peak of 93,990 in 1989, but at a slower rate than West Dunbartonshire and Inverclyde. ► NRS acknowledge that the difference between their A&B 2022 population figures (the census and mid-year estimate) “is likely due to armed forces presence”.[5] ► It appears NRS’s bleak 25-year projection in 2018 was based on predictable birth and mortality trends, but also assumed net migration close to zero, i.e. in-flow and out- flow balancing each other out on average. The jump in inward migration in 2021 calls this assumption into question.
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Examples of Action q Rural Resettlement Fund in 2016/2017 - £5,000 per household (businesses, £10,000) attracted 193 new residents. q Strategic communication initiatives #abplace2b www.abplace2b.scot - now a budget-free means to showcase the area as a great choice to live and work. q Local Development Plan zoning released land at Dunbeg for +300 houses q Place based regeneration improves attractiveness for residents and businesses q Housing Emergency working to grow the housing supply