Agenda reports pack
Argyll and Bute Council · 16 April 2025
Back to Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership - Management Committee — 16 April 2025 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
Page 1
9 April 2025 NOTICE OF MEETING A meeting of the ARGYLL AND BUTE COMMUNITY PLANNING PARTNERSHIP - MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE will be held in the COUNCIL CHAMBERS, KILMORY, LOCHGILPHEAD AND ONLINE VIA MS TEAMS on WEDNESDAY, 16 APRIL 2025 at 10:00 AM, which you are requested to attend. BUSINESS 1. WELCOME AND APOLOGIES (CHAIR) 2. MINUTES OF THE PREVIOUS MEETING - DECEMBER 2024 (CHAIR) (Pages 3 - 18) 3. REVIEW OF ACTION LOG (RONA GOLD) (Pages 19 - 20) 4. AREA COMMUNITY PLANNING GROUP UPDATES (JOHN MCLUCKIE) (Pages 21 - 30) 5. COMMUNITY PLANNING SELF-ASSESSMENT DRAFT IMPROVEMENT PLAN (RONA GOLD) (Pages 31 - 34) 6. ARGYLL AND BUTE OUTCOMES IMPROVEMENT PLAN 2024-2034 - NEXT STEPS (RONA GOLD / JOHN MCLUCKIE) 7. PROJECTS (a) CPP Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (Andy MacPherson) (Pages 35 - 94) In addition to the papers included directly under this Item, at the end of the agenda pack you can find two further documents that contain the climate strategy appendices numbers 1 – 7. (b) CPP Community Wealth Building Short Life Steering Group - CWB Bill (Takki Sulaiman / John McLuckie) Paper to follow Public Document Pack
Page 2
8. PARTNERSHIPS REPORTING TO CPP (ANNUALLY OR BY EXCEPTION) - COMMUNITY JUSTICE (MARY HOLT) (Pages 95 - 138) 9. PARTNER UPDATES - CLD STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP PLAN (PAUL ASHWORTH / RHONA GRANT) (Pages 139 - 142) 10. ASPIRING PLACES DEMONSTRATION (STUART GREEN / LUCY DUNBAR / MILLIE LEGGATT) 11. FAIR FUNDING GUIDANCE FEEDBACK (RONA GOLD / TAKKI SULAIMAN) 12. AOCB (a) National policy and community planning (Rona Gold) 13. DATE OF NEXT MEETING AND CLOSE (CHAIR) The next CPP Management Committee Meeting will be held on Friday 6th June 2025 at 1000 via MS Teams. 14. ADDITIONAL PAPERS RELATED TO ITEM 7A - CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN (Pages 143 - 230) Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership - Management Committee
Page 3
Classification: OFFICIAL Minutes of the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Management Committee held online via MS Teams on Friday 6 December 2024 at 1000 Present: Joe McKay, Scottish Fire and Rescue (Chair) Morag Goodfellow, Highland and Island Enterprise (HIE) Elizabeth Prior, NatureScot Takki Sulaiman, Argyll and Bute TSI Rachel McGruer, Scottish Government Colin Buchanan, Chair OLI ACPG Gary I’Anson, Police Scotland Luke Horner, ABC Susan McRae, SDS Sarah Davies, Chair HL ACPG Saskia Schmitz, NHS Highland Iain MacInnes, ABC Samantha Campbell, NHS Highland John McLuckie, ABC Sara McLean, ACT Jean Moffat, Chair BC ACPG Chris Carr, ABC Stuart McLean, ABC David Murdoch, ABC Andy Macpherson, ACT Cllr Anne Horn, ABC Graham Bell, NHS Highland Board Cllr Mark Irvine, ABC Paul Ashworth, LiveArgyll David Love, Audit Scotland Lynsey Innes, ABC Lucy Dunbar, ABC Fergus Walker, ABC Stuart Green, ABC Milly Leggett, ABC Mo McKenna, University of the Highlands and Islands Nicola Reaney, ABC (Secretary) Apologies Pippa Milne, ABC Evan Beswick, Argyll and Bute HSCP Kirsty Flanagan, ABC Cllr Jim Lynch, ABC Derek McCrindle, Scottish Enterprise Stan Philips, NatureScot Douglas Whyte, Argyll and Bute Council Bernadette Milligan, Audit Scotland Rona Gold, ABC Iona Scott-Elliott, MSYP Shona Barton, ABC Reeni Kennedy-Boyle, Vice Chair BC ACPG Ranald Robertson, HITRANS Gill Simpson, Chair HL ACPG 1. WELCOME AND APOLOGIES Joe welcomed everyone to the meeting, noting the new members who have taken up positions as Chairs and Vice Chairs at the Area Community Planning Groups. Apologies were noted. (a) New Member of the Scottish Youth Parliament (MSYP) Introduction A video introduction from Iona Scott-Elliott was played to members. Joe welcomed Iona and noted the importance of youth representation on the Community Planning Partnership (CPP) Management Committee (MC), where MSYPs have been represented for the last few years. 2. NOTE AND ACTIONS FROM JUNE DEVELOPMENT SESSION AND SEPTEMBER FULL PARTNERSHIP Page 3 Agenda Item 2
Page 4
Classification: OFFICIAL John provided an update on the action grids from these sessions which are contained within the meeting pack. June Development Session – Five of the seven actions from this are now complete. The outstanding actions on Community Wealth Building (CWB) and the priorities for the Outcomes Improvement Plan will be discussed later at items 6 (b) and 10. September Full Partnership in Oban – John advised all four actions from this session are now complete. There will be further discussion at this meeting regarding the action to develop a strategy for Climate Change at item 6 (a). 3. AREA COMMUNITY PLANNING GROUP (ACPG) UPDATES Stuart provided an overview of the ACPG reports from rounds of meetings held in April/May, August and November. He gave thanks to new office bearers that have taken up appointments – Gill Simpson as Vice Chair of Helensburgh and Lomond ACPG, Colin Buchanan as Chair and Julie MacKenzie as Vice Chair of Oban, Lorn and the Isles ACPG and Anne Horn as Chair of Mid-Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands ACPG. The terms of reference and membership of each ACPG will be considered at the meetings in February 2025. ACTION - CPP MC are encouraged to forward details of any applicable public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships operating within each locality to Stuart at stuart.mclean@argyll-bute.gov.uk for inclusion as ACPG members. MAKI ACPG have asked that their concerns regarding the negative impacts to local people and businesses due to repeated closures of the A83 are raised the CPP MC. Stuart advised that Iain Woodcock, Transport Scotland, had attended the Bute and Cowal, Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands and Helensburgh and Lomond ACPGs to give updates on the ongoing traffic management arrangements on the A83 and improvements to the Old Military Road, taking onboard the concerns of the ACPGs regarding continued disruption. Susan Donnelly, Argyll and Bute Council Resilience Manager also gave a presentation to ACPGs highlighting the importance of communities and individuals harnessing resources and expertise to prepare, respond and recover from emergencies which was of great interest to attendees and generated significant correspondence after the meetings. Joe thanked Stuart for his update and asked if there were any further updates on concerns regarding the A83 that should be raised. Stuart felt the discussions with Transport Scotland helped the communities, while still frustrated, to better understand the reasons behind the A83 closures. Stuart asked that the CPP MC note the concerns raised by the MAKI ACPG and added the hope that any further frustrations are alleviated by the details provided at the November round of ACPG meetings. Sarah felt the presentation given by Susan Donnelly on community resilience was very informative and asked if it would be possible for it to be delivered to all Community Councils in Argyll and Bute? Sarah noted there has not been a Joint Community Council meeting in some time and asked if that could be an option to deliver the presentation to all Community Councils in one place. Page 4
Page 5
Classification: OFFICIAL ACTION – Off table discussion to take place between Joe, Pippa, Sarah and Stuart to see if a Joint Community Council meeting can be arranged (to include the presentation on community resilience). 4. CENSUS / POPULATION UPDATE David Murdoch gave a presentation to update on the work on the population and census data from the census / National Records of Scotland (NRS). The population in Argyll and Bute had been gradually declining since 1989 (93,990 people) then post-COVID saw a positive trend increasing the net inward migration to the area (however it is too early to forecast if this increase will continue in an upwards trend in the future). David also explained how the difference in population estimates from 2011 and 2022 were largely due to changes in how the naval personnel at HMNB Clyde were included, or not, in the 2011 and 2022 census figures respectively. It is important that the population in HMNB Clyde is properly accounted as it does impact the area in terms of services being used by the naval personnel – schools, health services etc. Sarah noted that the Helensburgh and Lomond Community Wealth Building group have been looking at the economic impact of HMNB Clyde in the local area. Cllr Anne Horn asked if it is possible to obtain information on the number of placement requests for school places in Argyll and Bute from service personnel. David said that in 2043 the projected population in Argyll and Bute would be 73,500 people. The projections also showed an increase to the average population age (46 – 76 years) and the mortality rates of that aging cohort have been reflected in those figures. The age of the working age population is also declining in all four administrative areas. David noted the variance by area of the population under 16, and how the rate of child poverty in Argyll and Bute is 19.4% which is more positive that the Scotland average of 21.8%. However, there are areas in Argyll and Bute were the proportion of children in low income families is higher that the Scottish average, such as Rothesay. This is something that is trying to be addressed by the welfare and benefits teams engaging with households to maximise uptake of benefits, grants and allowances. David advised how it is important that the population projection for the area is correct as these figures are used by the Scottish Government to allocate funding. He was happy to report that the NRS were preparing a new set of projections for population in the area, as their previous projections have not accounted for the increase in net migration post-Covid. David hoped this would lead to a more positive population projection. Increasing population was a priority in the last 10 year Outcome Improvement Plan and Joe gave thanks to all partners for their efforts to make Argyll and Bute an attractive place to work, visit and live. Joe thanked David for his very informative presentation. Morag agreed the data was thought provoking and asked how we can use these statistics to inform what we do differently? David responded that there is already work ongoing with the Health and Social Care Partnership (HSCP) to use the data to look at provisioning on care Page 5
Page 6
Classification: OFFICIAL support and residential care spaces to account for an increase in service demand from an aging population. Rachel commented in the meeting chat that this was a really interesting analysis, and as a Scottish Government official working on social care she definitely agreed with the need to look at social care provision based on the population. Joe thanked David for his interesting presentation. ACTION – David to share the existing high level information from NRS relating to HMNB Clyde with cppadmin to share with CPP MC members. ACTION - David to ask NRS to provide more detailed information on the HMNB Clyde population and provide to Sarah for work of the H&L ACPG. ACTION - David to speak to Education to ask if they can provide information on service personnel school placements in Argyll and Bute to share with Cllr Horn. 5. JOINT STRATEGIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT (JSNA) 2024 PRESENTATION Saskia gave a presentation on the JSNA which detailed the expected future needs of the local population. Saskia detailed the data sources used to produce the JNSA, noting these are publicly available and can be included in the published document. Sam encouraged members to listen to the presentation while considering the social determinants of health in Argyll and Bute: 20% - health and social care 30% - health behaviours such as alcohol use, tobacco use etc 10% - the environment (air quality, housing and transport) 40% - socio economic factors (deprivation, education, income, employment etc) Sam also asked members to consider what the JSNA intelligence means for us and how we can deliver in relation to the Outcomes Improvement Plan going forward. Saskia provided further detail on the aging population in Argyll and Bute. In our area 27.8% of people over 65 are affected by multiple health conditions. The most common health concerns are cancer, arthritis, coronary heart disease, asthma and diabetes. This will likely lead to a rise in care needs of increasing complexity. The rate of Adult Care home residence in Argyll and Bute is higher than the Scottish average. The highest prevalence condition for those in long-term residential care is dementia and there is an increase in the number of deaths in a homely setting due to dementia. Saskia noted it is difficult to accurately record the number of unpaid carers in our area as not all are registered with carer centres, although recent awareness raising campaigns have shown an uptake in the number of people registering. Currently most unpaid carers are in the age group 35years and over, although a quarter of all carers are aged 65 and over, showing there may also be a need to provide more support to unpaid carers in the future to support the aging population. Page 6
Page 7
Classification: OFFICIAL Argyll and Bute Council was one of the first to declare a housing emergency. The high cost of homes means only 25% of the population can afford housing here (based on the standard affordable housing ratio of 3.5 x household income). There is a high amount of second homes and ineffective housing stock and the pressure on the market for available homes is highest on our island communities. For social housing, every available property has at least four applicants. Homelessness was reducing, however it has been rising again and may put increasing pressure on our housing / homeless services. Colin commented in the chat that the need for single and/or worker accommodation is a significant issue on the islands and this impacts care service as well as other sectors. Sam drew attention to the amount of valuable data that is included in the JSNA. She highlighted the aspiration in the new Local Outcomes Improvement Plan (LOIP) to build co-production with partners to work towards place-based building of social capital to make the area a better place to live, work and visit. The data in the JSNA gives us the intelligence to apply valuable approaches like CWB and asset based approaches to deliver these. Sam thanked all involved in creating the JSNA. Joe thanked them for the informative details on the JSNA and noted how the data provides a base to monitor improvements over the period of the LOIP. Saskia advised the JSNA is expected to be published early in 2025. 6. PROJECTS (a) CPP Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan Andy pointed to the extensive information available in the meeting pack and gave an overview of where the work is on the strategy, priorities and next steps. The Climate Strategy is broad ranging, including mitigation and adaptation. It is a real strength that the CPP MC is leading on this, and that approach sits efficiently with how the Scottish Government is looking to distribute climate change funding. The strategy has been streamlined, and Andy is continuing to work on making the document shorter and simpler. In developing the strategy, Andy engaged with multiple stakeholders using the UK Climate Risk profiles, Adaptation Scotland, Sniffer and the Sustainable Scotland Network. Outlines were also presented to the Climate Change Steering Group, the Community Resilience team and the ACPGs. This allowed feedback and to reflect and build on good practice where available. Andy said a key principle of the strategy was to align it to the three LOIP priorities and to focus on what the CPP MC partners are able to achieve, or influence. Andy will continue to develop the action plan over the next year and bring that back regularly to the CPP MC to engage, take remedial action, identify strengths and direct as required. The intention is that by the end of Andy’s post in November 2025 this work will be incorporated into business as usual, although there will be work required to continue updating the data and providing information to partners. Andy asked the CPP MC to endorse the approach to the strategy. Andy also asked for approval to divert project resources to more work on risk assessment, to get more on what the Community level climate impacts are and what are the unique risks facing particular areas. Page 7
Page 8
Classification: OFFICIAL Joe thanked Andy for his presentation. The CPP MC were happy to endorse the overall approach of the climate strategy and the diversion of project funds towards work on risk assessment. Mo was happy to see that skills development was a high priority action and noted the work by UHI Argyll on the Rural Growth Deal and the Rural Skills Accelerator Programme which looks to include climate action in engineering and construction courses. ACTION - Andy to talk with Mo on the Rural Skills Accelerator Programme which looks to include climate action in engineering and construction courses. (b) CPP Community Wealth Building (CWB) Short Life Steering Group Takki’s presentation gave a recap on the five pillars of CWB, which is an established economic methodology and many CPPs across Scotland are planning for the introduction of this legislation. The twenty general recommendations for action have been split across the five pillars and are contained in the presentation. Takki gave a recap of actions to date. There have been good discussions on CWB at the eight ACPG meetings in April/May and August, and it was discussed at the September CPP Full Partnership. A shared ownership informal best practice group has met 4 times to look at the mechanics of how his could look in terms of community energy / renewable energy schemes. The Council procurement team has also provided excellent information and they are producing a new procurement strategy in early 2025. Good news is that currently 38% of council spend is local, compared to the 28% national average. Takki is keen for the CPP to look at partner spend and explore how we can engage with local supply chains and build capacity in them. In February 2025 the CWB Steering Group will host an in-person workshop to produce a summary position statement with a “hyper localised” vision and mission. The group will prioritise recommendations and deliver action plans and explore linkages and opportunities with other strategies. An infographic will be produced to explain how CWB fits with other activities and highlight what role partners can play in the delivery of CWB. Takki advised that the Economic Development Association Scotland have received funding to set up a CWB best practice hub, and an online CWB tool has been set up by the Improvement Service. Joe thanked Takki for his presentation. He advised how the Fire Service is now actively employing local tradespeople for maintenance, and encouraged all partners to look at how they can contribute to the circular local economy. Andy added that feedback from CPP stakeholders have identified CWB opportunities in terms of climate resilience and reducing carbon emissions. Sarah and Colin felt it would be useful to roll out CWB at Community Development Trust level. ACTION – Takki’s presentation to be sent to CPP MC members. Page 8
Page 9
Classification: OFFICIAL 7. ARGYLL AND BUTE COUNCIL EQUALITIES OUTCOMES CONSULTATION Chris gave a presentation on the consultation which applies to the Council, Education and licensing board. The consultation is looking to change all the equality outcomes, applying lessons learned from previous outcomes, and apply actions to the new outcomes to facilitate progress reporting. The new outcomes are due to be published at the end of April 2025, and there is a need to consult with relevant groups to develop the outcomes. Chris encouraged partners to promote the consultation to community groups, noting how inclusion and equalities are woven into the LOIP – most closely to the Community Wellbeing priority. The Equalities and Human Rights Commission state when developing the outcomes that three things should be considered:- - the elimination of discrimination, harassment, and victimisation, - advancing equality of opportunity between people with and without protected characteristics, and, - focusing on good relations between people with protected characteristics and those who don't. There is a mix of internal and external focussed outcomes, drawing attention to work already undertaken with refugee communities, community engagement, local work on the incorporation of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, Violence against Women and HR workforce planning. The outcomes look to ensure accessibility of information and encourage inclusive communication and raise awareness to ensure that the challenges faced by those with protected characteristics are considered. This will help us to accommodate the needs of different groups. The next steps are a public consultation, which will run over the festive period. The responses will then be analysed and amendments made to the outcomes and actions plan as required. Chris asked the CPP MC if they agreed with the general themes for the outcomes as noted in the presentation. Joe thanked Chris for her presentation and pointed to some of the great work already underway in the area to address inequalities. ACTION – Partners to forward any outcomes to be added, or suggested amendments to chris.carr@argyll-bute.gov.uk 8. AUDIT SCOTLAND'S TACKLING DIGITAL EXCLUSION REPORT Joe introduced this item saying there has been fantastic work in Argyll and Bute to address digital exclusion since 2020. David gave a presentation on the Audit Scotland Report, which was published in August 2024. The aim of the report was to consider how public bodies, including Scottish Government, Councils, NHS and other bodies, understand and are tackling digital exclusion. The report looks at what digital inclusion is, how well the public sector are tackling this issue and how to support improvement to enable digital inclusion. Page 9
Page 10
Classification: OFFICIAL A key message in the report is that digital technologies can bring many benefits and efficiencies, enable people to access services and is an important factor in ongoing public sector reform. Audit Scotland spoke to those with real life experience of digital exclusion and this provided real value to the report. Connecting Scotland has supported over 61,000 households to get online, however this funding has been reduced after the pandemic so collaborative working across organisations is needed to continue this work. Skills development is also needed, with around 15% of Scotland’s adults lacking digital skills. Council digital services are not always easy to access and this can disadvantage vulnerable people. David noted the positive works already being done by the Council on this. The report sets out principles to enable digital inclusion, with examples of existing initiatives, to shape a self-assessment tool for public body boards, members and council elected members to assess progress on digital inclusion. Audit Scotland have produced an accessible flyer containing the key messages of the report, which can be printed or distributed online. There is also a video available with key statistics which includes the voices of those affected by digital exclusion. Joe thanked David for his presentation. The report contains lots for the CPP MC to consider and measure how organisations are progressing on this. 9. DIGITAL INCLUSION Iain and Luke provided a presentation on the PSTN switch off and the mobile mapping project. The PSTN switch off is expected to be complete by January 2027. The current PSTN infrastructure is at the end of its life, it is unreliable and it is becoming increasingly difficult to source parts to repair the network. Its replacement, Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP), is more resistant to bad weather and can offer enhanced scam protection and clearer call quality. Alarms, telecare and payment systems are examples of the technology that will be adversely affected by the PSTN switch off. The Internet Service Provider charter and the upcoming new Telecare National Action Plan state that users should not be migrated to VOIP unless they have equipment in place to ensure there are no negative effects to service users. Vulnerable groups (users with a visual or hearing impairment, registered disabled and telecare users) are to be given additional support to migrate with onsite engineer support available to ensure the switch is successful. If the switch is unsuccessful alternative technology can be installed, i.e. BT are testing a digital phone that does not require a broadband connection and providing a dedicated land line service until 2030. Argyll and Bute Council and the HSCP are working with BT to identify vulnerable / telecare users. Phones with battery backup are also available to ensure phone service continues in the event of a power cut. The next round of council tax letters will include information on the PSTN switch off to ensure all households receive the relevant information. This will contain advice on who to contact for more information and will be hosted on the council website, where it can be translated to different languages using the accessibility tools online. Page 10
Page 11
Classification: OFFICIAL Iain gave an update on the mobile mapping project where mapping equipment has been mounted on refuse collection vehicles to gather data on the coverage and speeds from the various mobile providers across the area. He showed how the mapping system can identify “not” spots, show the dominant provider by area and the speed of each provider in a given area. Iain hoped this data would cover all of Argyll and Bute by the next year. The plan is for the mapping tool to be available on the Council website as a resource for residents to assess service provision at their address / area. Joe thanked Iain and Luke for the really valuable information in their presentation and he looked forward to further updates on the project as it continues. 10. ARGYLL AND BUTE OUTCOME IMPROVEMENT PLAN 2024-2034 (a) Feedback from Full Partnership The CPP Full Partnership was held in September. An overview of the event and the conversations on the day were captured in a picture form which can be seen by clicking on this link: graphic from Full Partnership. The three priority areas – Housing, Transport and Community Wellbeing – were explored in more detail in facilitated discussions. (b) Developing Actions Feedback was gathered on what was already happening and what further things the CPP partnership could do to address any gaps. The paper for this item links the recommended actions to each priority outcome. This does not form a definitive list of actions and are rather a suggestion of how the CPP can move forward on next steps. CPP partners are asked to consider these actions for approval, noting that work is ongoing to explore further actions for each outcome. These were approved. Takki asked if the data in the Community Wellbeing actions could be shared, if possible, as access to that information would be useful for third sector funding bids. He added that a wider data sharing agreement across public sector bodies would be of benefit, and he would be keen to give support to making that happen. John said conversations on how the data can be shared would be useful. The paper includes recommendations on contributions and participation from partners, so further discussion on data could be raised there. John hoped these discussions would take place soon. John noted the action on Transport Infrastructure to commission research on transport related inequalities. The recommendation was for the CPP MC to consider this and agree the proposal to commission this research, and what resources can be offered to support this. Joe noted the CPP MC was happy to endorse this recommendation. Morag said she would be keen to see the scope once it was further developed and ready for procurement. Colin was keen to work with John on ensuring the community councils were much more involved in this. John thanked Colin for his offer of support and replied to Morag that the tendering for this work would take place in the New Year. Page 11
Page 12
Classification: OFFICIAL ACTION – Partner offers of any support to the delivery of the LOIP recommended actions to be sent to cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk ACTION: John to share the scope of the procurement to commission research for transport, with Morag. ACTION: John to engage with Colin around community council input to the research. 11. NATIONAL CPP UPDATES (a) Community Planning Improvement Board (CPIB) Guidance for fair funding of the Voluntary Sector John advised the principles of this guidance appear to be fair and consistent with the Verity House agreement between the Scottish Government and Local Government. However, the detail of the guidance should be considered by each partner before we can sign up to this as a CPP as a whole. Takki felt it was great to see this coming through the CPIB and on the agenda today. He advised this was a combined piece of work with TSI Scotland Network. The guidance, if implemented, will enable the third sector to be effective partners in the prevention and early intervention agenda and public sector reform. Some third sector organisations are facing financial challenges and there is a risk of those assets being lost permanently. Takki is keen for partners to look beyond their own organisational budgets and think about how we might operate as an integrated system and craft a statement on fair funding together. He noted South Lanarkshire have an existing good example of this that the CPP could look at and offered his support to John in drafting a response. Joe agreed the third sector are a vital part of the CPP. Takki provided a link in the chat to the TSI Local Fair Funding Charter. ACTION – All members to consider the Community Planning Improvement Board guidance and return any feedback to cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk for discussion at the March 2025 meeting to enable a whole CPP endorsement to be considered. ACTION – Takki to suggest a statement (to John) on fair funding that is a draft that the CPP can consider signing up to alongside the above ask to consider the guidance for Third Sector. b) Improvement Service Self-Assessment John thanked everyone that completed the recent survey on the Improvement Board Self-Assessment. He expects a report with the results of the survey in January 2025, which will help the CPP develop an improvement plan, which will be brought to the meeting in March 2025. 12. PARTNERSHIPS REPORTING TO CPP (a) Financial Inclusion Page 12
Page 13
Classification: OFFICIAL Fergus gave an update on work on financial inclusion :- - Scottish Welfare Fund, as of October 2024 £315,000 of a £708,000 budget had been issued for Crisis and Community Care grants. There is an ongoing national review of this Fund and Fergus is expecting guidance soon for the improvements to be implemented for the 25/26 financial year (FY). - Warmer Home Scotland: the Scottish government have added funding to this scheme which is administered by the Energy Savings Trust. - Discretionary Housing Payments (DHP). Fergus’s team are working with DWP to identify and assess households that may benefit from this payment to encourage them to submit claims. Fergus has drafted a policy to use DHP to support families affected by the benefits cap, and stakeholder consultation on this will begin soon. - Flexible Food and Fuel Fund, 3,000 households have been supported since this fund began in January 2021. The contract for this ends in March 2025 and Fergus is looking at funding options to extend this for the 25/26 FY. Fergus noted if this fund can not be extended it will likely lead to more budget pressure on the Scottish Welfare Fund. - Tackling Action in Poverty project is being delivered by the Poverty Alliance, with the Council and TSI also involved. A citizens panel has been set up and there has been positive progress. A panel member attended a private meeting with the First Minister at Bute House to share their experiences. - Islands Crisis Emergency Fund, the Council received £141,000 from the Scottish Government for this and is distributing the funds by issuing Love Local cards loaded with £95 to those in receipt of council tax reduction. This ensures the funding is spent in local shops to also benefit business on the islands. Community Food projects on the islands have received £4000 each to support their work. - School Clothing Banks: this project is nearing its conclusion to provide free or low cost uniforms to primary school aged children in Argyll and Bute. Any gaps in the project are being addressed by Community Development Officers in collaboration with teachers in those areas. Fergus is looking at opportunities for external funding to sustain and grow the project in the longer term. - Corporate Debt Recovery, the Council approved a new corporate debt recovery policy with a vulnerability and hardship protocol and Fergus’s team are working with Argyll and Bute Citizens Advice Bureau, Bute Advice Centre and our debt collection partner, Walker Love, to make sure policies and procedures are aligned to provide support for vulnerable people. - Collaboration to mitigate poverty, Fergus is working with David Murdoch, SAVVY, the Improvement Service and the Information Commissioners Office on how to use and share available data to identify child poverty and gaps in benefit take up. Fergus described this work as a slow burn, but is getting lots of support to take this forward. - Warm Spaces, Fergus noted there is information on the Council website on support to heat your home and the TSI website on warm spaces. Joe thanked Fergus for his update as it was really good to see the support being given to those most in need in our communities. (b) Aspiring Places - Awareness Raising, Survey Promotion and Demo Stuart Green provided an update to the CPP MC in January on Area Plans, which has been renamed to Aspiring Places, and provided a recap on the stages of the Page 13
Page 14
Classification: OFFICIAL project to date which included the recruitment of two project officers. April 2024 saw a change of administration in the Council which then set out its priorities in September 2024. This included an agreement to implement the Aspiring Places project. This project will no longer create or publish area plan documents and a digital platform, CONSUL Democracy, will be used to engage with community groups and provide a single point for capturing all community projects. The platform is used by 23 local authorities, user friendly and has been designed with feedback from communities. The project does not administer funding but can signpost groups to resources. It is not a delivery plan and does not supersede existing Council plans and priorities. Successful demonstrations of the platform have been given within the council and the project is working with Community Development to identify groups to test the platform pilot. Stuart explained that having a register of projects, and potential projects, allows the council to respond effectively to dynamic funding announcements from the UK and Scottish Governments. The platform will be launched in March 2025 then an evaluation will take place once the site has been live for a period. If successful, a business case analysis will be undertaken to continue the platform. A final decision will be made by elected members. Andy said this was an excellent initiative and he has a strong interest in the project as is it a fantastic fit with work he will do next year to work up the climate action plan and develop pilot projects. Morag was keen to understand how HIE can interact with the project as they are aware of some impactful community led projects. Takki welcomed the progress in this project that can help prevent duplication of work across the dispersed communities in Argyll and Bute. He did have questions around intellectual property protection once projects are loaded to the platform and cautioned there may be resistance in communities to sharing their projects with statutory bodies. Stuart hoped to resolve any issues like this in the pilot testing with community groups. Joe thanked Stuart for the presentation and the good work which is going on in the project. ACTION – Stuart and Morag to discuss how HIE can interact with the Aspiring Places project. 13. COMMUNICATION (a) CPP Bulletin John noted the bulletin will be issued monthly and he is keen for partners to submit content for ongoing work across the three priority outcomes and cross cutting themes. (b) Podcast 2025 Launch Page 14
Page 15
Classification: OFFICIAL John advised the first recording for the podcast will take place and be available in January. The podcast will be used to promote the work of the CPP and its partners on the delivery of the LOIP and also the wider work partners are involved in and will hopefully develop a wider audience to, and understanding of Community Planning. ACTION - Members to provide any feedback on the bulletin, ideas for bulletin or podcast content, or offers to join podcast to cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk 14. AOCB, DATE OF NEXT MEETING AND CLOSE AOCB :- - Susan advised Skills Development Scotland redundancy support services have been triggered by the closure of the Grangemouth refinery which affects staff at the Finnart terminal. Support workshops have been delivered to 30 people and 1:1 support will be provided in the new year. Susan advised support is also being offered to some voluntary organisations that have closed and also to staff at Homebase in Oban. She thanked the CPP members that are involved in supporting this. - Jean informed the meeting of the passing of Bobby McIntyre who was a Councillor for 20 years. Joe passed the condolences of the board to his family. - Paul advised the CLD Strategic Partnership Plan is expected to be ratified on 12 December by the Council. Paul asked to provide an update on that to the March 2025 CPP MC. Any questions on this can be sent to Paul at paul.ashworth@liveargyll.co.uk. ACTION – CLD Strategic Partnership Plan to be added to March 2025 CPP MC agenda. The next meeting will be on Friday 21 March 2025 from 1030 to 1400 in the Council Chambers, Kilmory and online via MS Teams. Joe closed the meeting noting it was fantastic to see the amount of great work going on in our communities and gave thanks to all involved in producing the updates for today’s meeting. Page 15
Page 16
Classification: OFFICIAL CPP DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE ACTION GRID – 6 DECEMBER 2024 Complete In Progress Outstanding Please highlight actions as per traffic light system to show progress Date Set Action Who Required by Date 6/12 CPP MC are encouraged to forward details of any applicable public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships operating within each locality to Stuart at stuart.mclean@argyll-bute.gov.uk for inclusion as ACPG members. All End January 2024 6/12 Off table discussion to take place between Joe, Pippa, Sarah and Stuart to see if a Joint Community Council meeting can be arranged (to include the presentation on community resilience). Joe, Pippa, Stuart M, Sarah 7 March 2025 6/12 David to share the existing high level information from NRS relating to HMNB Clyde with cppadmin to share with CPP MC members. David Murdoch 7 March 2025 6/12 David to ask NRS to provide more detailed information on the HMNB Clyde population and provide to Sarah for work of the H&L ACPG. David Murdoch 7 March 2025 6/12 David to speak to Education to ask if they can provide information on service personnel school placements in Argyll and Bute to share with Cllr Horn. David Murdoch 7 March 2025 6/12 Andy to talk with Mo on the Rural Skills Accelerator Programme which looks to include climate action in engineering and construction courses. Andy 7 March 2025 6/12 Takki presentation on CWB to be sent to CPP MC members. CPP Team 13 December 24 6/12 Partners to forward any outcomes to be added, or suggested amendments to the Equalities Outcomes to chris.carr@argyll-bute.gov.uk All 10 January 2025 6/12 Partner offers of any support to the delivery of the LOIP recommended actions to be sent to cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk All 7 March 2025 6/12 John to share the scope of the procurement to commission research for transport, with Morag. John 7 March 2025 6/12 John to engage with Colin around community council input to the research. John 7 March 2025 6/12 All members to consider the Community Planning Improvement Board guidance and return any feedback to cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk for discussion at the March 2025 meeting to enable a whole CPP endorsement to be considered. All 7 March 2025 6/12 Takki to suggest a statement (to John) on fair funding that is a draft that the CPP can consider signing up to alongside the above ask to consider the guidance for Third Sector. Takki 7 March 2025 6/12 Stuart and Morag to discuss how HIE can interact with the Aspiring Places project. Stuart G, Morag 7 March 2025 Page 16
Page 17
Classification: OFFICIAL Date Set Action Who Required by Date 6/12 Members to provide any feedback on the bulletin, ideas for bulletin or podcast content, or offers to join podcast to cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk All 7 March 2025 6/12 CLD Strategic Partnership Plan to be added to March 2025 CPP MC agenda. CPP Team 7 March 2025 Page 17
Page 18
This page is intentionally left blank
Page 19
Classification: OFFICIAL CPP DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE ACTION GRID – 6 DECEMBER 2024 Complete In Progress Outstanding Please highlight actions as per traffic light system to show progress Date Set Action Who Required by Date 6/12 CPP MC are encouraged to forward details of any applicable public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships operating within each locality to Stuart at stuart.mclean@argyll-bute.gov.uk for inclusion as ACPG members. All End January 2024 6/12 Off table discussion to take place between Joe, Pippa, Sarah and Stuart to see if a Joint Community Council meeting can be arranged (to include the presentation on community resilience). Joe, Pippa, Stuart M, Sarah 7 March 2025 6/12 David to share the existing high level information from NRS relating to HMNB Clyde with cppadmin to share with CPP MC members. David Murdoch 7 March 2025 6/12 David to ask NRS to provide more detailed information on the HMNB Clyde population and provide to Sarah for work of the H&L ACPG. David Murdoch 7 March 2025 6/12 David to speak to Education to ask if they can provide information on service personnel school placements in Argyll and Bute to share with Cllr Horn. David Murdoch 7 March 2025 6/12 Andy to talk with Mo on the Rural Skills Accelerator Programme which looks to include climate action in engineering and construction courses. Andy 7 March 2025 6/12 Takki presentation on CWB to be sent to CPP MC members. CPP Team 13 December 24 6/12 Partners to forward any outcomes to be added, or suggested amendments to the Equalities Outcomes to chris.carr@argyll-bute.gov.uk All 10 January 2025 6/12 Partner offers of any support to the delivery of the LOIP recommended actions to be sent to cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk All 7 March 2025 Page 19 Agenda Item 3
Page 20
Classification: OFFICIAL Date Set Action Who Required by Date 6/12 John to share the scope of the procurement to commission research for transport, with Morag. John 7 March 2025 6/12 John to engage with Colin around community council input to the research. John 7 March 2025 6/12 All members to consider the Community Planning Improvement Board guidance and return any feedback to cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk for discussion at the March 2025 meeting to enable a whole CPP endorsement to be considered. All 7 March 2025 6/12 Takki to suggest a statement (to John) on fair funding that is a draft that the CPP can consider signing up to alongside the above ask to consider the guidance for Third Sector. Takki 7 March 2025 6/12 Stuart and Morag to discuss how HIE can interact with the Aspiring Places project. Stuart G, Morag 7 March 2025 6/12 Members to provide any feedback on the bulletin, ideas for bulletin or podcast content, or offers to join podcast to cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk All 7 March 2025 6/12 CLD Strategic Partnership Plan to be added to March 2025 CPP MC agenda. CPP Team 7 March 2025 Page 20
Page 21
Classification: OFFICIAL Management Committee Date: April 2025 Agenda Item: Area Community Planning Groups – February 2025 Meetings 1. Purpose This paper highlights the key matters arising during the Area Community Planning Group (ACPG) meetings that were held in February 2025. 2. Recommendations The Management Committee is asked to consider: a) The concerns of the Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands (MAKI) ACPG on a new format of reporting from one of the partners; detailed at 4.4. The Management Committee is asked to note: a) The highlights from the meetings detailed at section 4 of the report. b) The concerns raised by partners at the Helensburgh and Lomond (H&L) ACPG around the switch off of the Radio Teleswitching Service (RTS) and Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN). See section 6.0 of this report ‘Cove and Kilcreggan’. c) The disappointment of the Oban, Lorn and the Isles (OLI) ACPG at the decision to end the funding for Living Well Networks. d) That the Governance Arrangements, specifically Terms of Reference and membership, were considered and adopted for the next year, subject to the inclusion of two new members for both the Bute and Cowal (B&C), and H&L ACPGs, representing the National Farmers Union, Scotland (NFUS), and Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA). e) The establishment by the OLI ACPG of a Short-Term Working Group to explore community resilience requirements as a result of climate change. f) The change in dates of the Bute and Cowal, and Helensburgh and Lomond ACPG meetings, scheduled for May 2026, to late April 2026. 3. Background Page 21 Agenda Item 4
Page 22
Classification: OFFICIAL There are four Area Community Planning Groups, one in each of the Council’s administrative areas (Bute and Cowal; Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands; Helensburgh and Lomond; and Oban, Lorn and the Isles). Meetings were held on a variety of platforms, including purely virtual and on a hybrid basis using Microsoft Teams. Prior to the meetings discussion took place with the Area Chairs and Vice Chairs and a standard agenda template was agreed. All 4 meetings were well attended by a variety of partners. 4. Highlights All Groups considered: 4.1 Area Community Planning Group Governance Arrangements Each ACPG gave consideration to a report outlining the governance arrangements for the group and agreed to adopt the Terms of Reference which would be reviewed on an annual basis. Each ACPG also agreed to the membership which would also be reviewed on an annual basis with new members representing the National Farmers Union, Scotland (NFUS), and Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), being added to the membership for the Bute and Cowal, and Helensburgh and Lomond ACPGs. The Bute and Cowal, and Helensburgh and Lomond ACPGs, also agreed to a change in meeting dates from May 2026, to late April 2026. 4.2 Aspiring Places – Community Projects in Argyll and Bute Each ACPG gave consideration to a presentation by the Aspiring Places Project team. The presentation provided background information in relation to the previous project approach and how this has evolved following review and agreement on the Council’s priorities for 2024-27, leading to the revised project vision to create a digital space for community projects in Argyll and Bute. Discussion took place in relation to how community groups could get involved with the project and it was advised that the project would be launched towards the end of March and that they would be publicising information widely on how to access the online digital space. 4.3 Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Update The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service’s (SFRS) quarter 3 report presented details of local performance across Argyll and Bute for the period 2024-25. The report included updates on the local firefighter training plan, incident numbers recorded during the reporting period, the new Home Fire Safety Visit Page 22
Page 23
Classification: OFFICIAL policy, and road and water safety campaigns, as well as highlighting community engagement and Local Senior Officer activities. 4.4 Police Scotland Update Police Scotland provided information on the ongoing work of the service and information on serious and organised crime, acquisitive crime, road safety and road crime, violent crime, public protection; the work of Youth Engagement Officers, the continued work on pro-actively engaging with the public in the locality and a renewed focus on driver behaviour safety aimed at new and young drivers. Concerns were expressed at the MAKI meeting that the new format of police reports for community council meetings did not contain information pertinent to the area and it was agreed that this would be higlighted to the CPP Management Committee to establish if this view was shared by other Area Community Planning Groups, or if the matter would just be considered at a MAKI area level. 4.5 Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership’s Public Health Team provided an update on the ongoing wellbeing and prevention activities overseen and delivered by them in Argyll and Bute. The update highlighted the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment published in December 2024, the Community Link Worker service expansion, the launch of the Mental Health Hub – Living Well in Argyll and Bute digital resource, and training opportunities in mental health awareness and suicide prevention. The update report also highlighted the Alcohol and Drugs Partnership work, screening inequalities grant funding for Argyll and Bute, and the end of the Waverley Care contract and local Living Well Network coordination funding. 4.6 Argyll and Bute TSI Update The update from Argyll and Bute TSI provided details of ongoing Support Advisor activities, the Chief Executive’s contribution to a TSI Scotland Network document, funding for third sector organisations, a review of Day Services for Older People, Wellbeing Development Manager activities, Winter Welcome spaces and the Volunteer of the Year Awards 2025. 4.7 Transport Scotland update Page 23
Page 24
Classification: OFFICIAL The groups gave consideration to an update from Ian Woodcock from Transport Scotland on the ongoing traffic management arrangements and hillside monitoring regime at the Rest and Be Thankful with information also provided on planned road works on the A82, A83, A85 and A828. 4.8 Argyll and Bute CPP Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan Consideration was given to an update from Andy MacPherson from ACT on the progress of the CPP Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan. Andy highlighted that he is working with the Council’s resilience team to enhance local resilience following Storm Èowyn, and following discussion, the OLI ACPG agreed to establish a Short-Term Working Group to explore community resilience requirements. 4.9 Argyll and Bute Visitor Levy Each ACPG was advised that the Council is running a formal visitor levy consultation until 10 April 2025 with a series of hosted drop-in events and online information webinars arranged to help people in Argyll and Bute to find out more and get involved in assessing the possible introduction of a Visitor Levy. 5.0 Bute & Cowal (Meeting Papers - LINK) A written update from UHI Argyll included information on January start and commercial courses, open events and taster sessions, and successful delivery of a Maritime Rope Workshop course which is hoped to be replicated in the future. Shona Edwards, Community Learning Worker for LiveArgyll reported that the local Community Learning team had use of the upstairs of the Moat Centre Library for youth work and adult learning, and that there will be promotional work this year to celebrate the history of the Library which will be 50 years old. Ann Kennovin, Community Learning Worker hoped that they could encourage young people to contribute to the Youth Work Bill which is currently out for consultation, and highlighted their continuing work with primary 7 students to ensure a smooth transition into secondary school. Susan MacRae, Skills Development Scotland (SDS), confirmed that funding for national training initiatives will soon pass from SDS to the Scottish Funding Council and that officers are working to ensure that service users experience a smooth transition. Susan also advised they she is continuing to deliver the PACE programme to support those facing reducing into positive destinations. Linda Payne and Donna Canavan delivered a presentation on behalf of Waterbaby Arts, a non-profit charity organisation that provides workshops, support and services Page 24
Page 25
Classification: OFFICIAL across four Council areas providing movement and creative arts classes which are accessible to people of all ages with disabilities in a safe environment. Mary-Lou Anderson, Engagement Officer, provided an update on behalf of the Argyll and Bute Climate Action Network in the Tighnabruaich area. ABCAN has been assisting the local Community Council and Community Trust in developing a Local Place Plan. A recent survey across the area received a 25% return rate and a report with goals and recommendations will be fed back to the ABCAN Steering Group. Amie Dow, Community Development Officer, highlighted the launch on 31st March 2025 of the Supporting Communities Fund. 6.0 Helensburgh & Lomond (Meeting Papers - LINK) A written update from LiveArgyll was provided by Rhona Grant and Caroline Whitson, on local adult learning and youth services, the Independent Review of Community Learning and Development and the work of the MSYPs. Paul Ashworth, Services and Support Manager, gave a verbal update on the changes to local facilities to maintain provision of services following the damage to the Leisure Centre caused by Storm Èowyn. Further discussion took place on the impact of the move of the library to the pavilion in Hermitage Park. David Hagerty, Council’s Community Development Officer, provided an update on the ongoing work with local community groups, including the Princess Louise Hall, Welcome In, Kirkmichael Community Development Group, Parents for Change, Helensburgh Hub and Jean’s Bothy. A written update provided information from Helensburgh Community Hub on the launch of Helensburgh Repair café and the Helensburgh Book Festival, with Gill Simpson adding that she is in the process of creating a new 5 year plan alongside Community Enterprise with community partners able to assist by engaging with Community Enterprise. Consideration was given to a report from Fun First outlining sessions offered outdoors and for new and expectant parents. Fun First also expressed gratitude for a grant from the Armed Forces Covenant and highlighted the appointment of a new Service Manager and ongoing training for new leaders. Information in a written update from Helensburgh Community Council included a Judicial Review of the Helensburgh Waterfront Development, a Helensburgh Local Place Plan, the removal of the Bank of Scotland branch and the Music in the Square Fund. Sarah Davies also highlighted two vacancies on the Community Council and the forthcoming events to consult on the local place plan and the proposed Visitor Levy. The group considered a report from the Helensburgh and Lomond Living Well Network highlighting that the funding for the service has been withdrawn and expressing thanks for the input of past and present coordinators. Page 25
Page 26
Classification: OFFICIAL Cove and Kilcreggan Community Council provided a verbal update with serious concerns remaining around the PSTN and RTS switch-off. It was agreed that these concerns would be highlighted to the CPP Management Committee. The Committee Manager highlighted the ongoing meeting arrangements for Helensburgh Gaelic Group and the Poverty Alliance. Consideration was given to the report from Argyll and Bute Citizen’s Advice Bureau which provided statistical information, details of advice services, and volunteering and paid roles within the Bureau. Gill Simpson provided a short update on the work of the Community Wealth Building Short Term Working Group to explore ways of generating resources locally, developing skills and experience to build wealth as a community, the vehicles to deliver Community Wealth Building, and next steps including sharing best practice with other Councils and other communities in Argyll and Bute. 7.0 Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands (Meeting Papers - LINK) David Conner from Kintyre Recycling provided a verbal update highlighting their work with 47 schools and more than 10 charity shops across Argyll and Bute. The charity has doubled its capacity since 2022 when a pre-loved school uniform scheme was also introduced in conjunction with Inspiralba. Kintyre Recycling currently employs 4 people and is progressing the development of a bike centre. Adele Martin, Eryne Barr and Megan Elliot, InspirAlba, delivered a presentation on the Spark Your Purpose Project, a pre-employability program designed to support individuals aged 16-17 in discovering and pursuing their unique career paths, and the Parental Employability Support Fund, offering one-to-one support to help identify an individual's goals any issues that might be getting in the way. Ali Martin, Support and Development Worker, highlighted the work of Minority Ethnic Carers of People Project (MECOPP) in working with Gypsy/Traveller communities in rural and urban Scotland as well as the support provided to Black and Minority Ethnic carers, the development of a strategic response to identified gaps in service provision and the assistance provided to statutory and voluntary service providers. The presentation also provided an overview on who Gypsy/Travellers are and where they live, their culture, traditions and values, and the barriers and challenges which affect the way they live their lives. The group considered an update report from LiveArgyll on Youth Work in Kintyre which highlighted the work of the Kintyre Youth Action Group, collaboration with Skills Development Scotland to provide an employability skills programme to learning support students, wider achievement awards, the return of the Friday Night ‘Street Sports’ programme and the online directory of programmes and activities aimed at young people in Kintyre. Consideration was also given to a report on Adult Learning which included information on the Kintyre Community Learning Hub, the Mid Argyll Learning Hub, the partnership between Kintyre Adult Learning and Mari Allibone Alzheimers Scotland, the Let’s Grow Group and Give Back Group Accredited Page 26
Page 27
Classification: OFFICIAL Learning, the Community Centre garden project and forthcoming LGBTQ+ community engagement event. An update was provided by Paul Ives of Shopper Aide who highlighted that they have been overwhelmed by support from the local community since the last Area Community Planning Group meeting. Paul added that they are currently undertaking a survey to understand the changing needs of older people in Kintyre help gather qualitative feedback to ensure that the service continues to meet the needs of the community. A written updated highlighted the Forestry and Land Scotland work on local Land Management Plans, combatting Phytophthora ramorum in larch trees, progression with peatland restoration and details of upcoming complex forestry operations. In the absence of Alasdair Paisley, Member of the Scottish Youth Parliament, the Democratic Services Manager provided an update which highlighted the transport issues raised through a recent consultation with young people at Tarbert Academy. It was highlighted that Alasdair’s current focus was on finding the support in Lochgilphead and Campbeltown for a later bus along Kintyre, as well as helping consult for the upcoming Youth Work Bill and the Scottish Youth Parliament’s new manifesto. Councillor Horn provided an update to the Group on behalf of the Council which included the exploration of a potential pilot telecare project with BT and Openreach and the related risk of scam callers, and the consultation on the Council’s 2025 budget, details of which can be found on the Council website. 8.0 Oban, Lorn and the Isles (Meeting Papers - LINK) Dr Lynda Mitchell detailed the work of ALIenergy and the range of charities they work in partnership with, highlighting ALIenergy’s main objective to work with individual households to alleviate fuel poverty and energy education. Current projects include work around storage heaters in rural areas where no mains gas is available, work with P7-S2 pupils on energy education, the delivery of climate change and heating workshops, and a pilot programme for free smart controls to be installed in homes to measure how much heat is within the property. ALIenergy have also worked in partnership with Hope Kitchen, Lorn Health Options and Atlantis Leisure in the set-up of the Re-Store Shop in Oban, an initiative which has been successful in its first year and which has recently won an Innovation Award at the ScottishPower Foundation Awards 2024. A report from Kelly McKellar, Project Manager for Argyll and Bute Council’s Piers and Harbours, highlighted the Argyll and Bute Council Mainland Ferry Study carried out in 2024 by Caledonian Economics. The group considered a written update from Crossroads provided by Joan Best. The Living Well Network Co-Ordinator for Oban, Lorn and the Islands, Carol Flett, advised that the funding for the Living Well Network was coming to an end as of Page 27
Page 28
Classification: OFFICIAL March 2025 and added she was hopeful that funding could be secured to keep some of the current projects going. Carol confirmed that are still a couple of Network meetings to take place over Zoom and that the Public Health Team will take ownership of the Network Membership list going forward. Several third sector partners advised that they were not consulted over the decision to cut the Living Well Network Service and they were not aware of anyone who will be in a position to replace and/or replicate this service. The group requested that their disappointment at the decision to withdraw the Living Well Network service be raised at the CPP Management Committee. The group considered a written report from UHI Argyll which included information on courses starting in January, commercial courses, open events and taster sessions. Consideration was given to a presentation by Ronald Gordon, Shaun Sinclair and Mark McQueen, members of Oban Lorne Rugby Club on their plans to develop a Community Sports Hub, which will incorporate the sports pitches at Glencruitten and Mossfield Stadium. The representatives confirmed that an agreement had been reached with the Council to lease and administer these facilities and that it was envisaged that the development would be progressed over eight phases, which would include the refurbishment and upgrading of the existing Rugby Club Building, a stand being built at the Glencruitten pitch, installation of flood lights, secure fencing and athletics track, drainage and levelling off the lower pitch, installation of storage facilities and wind turbines, a new access road being developed, facilities at Mossfield Stadium being upgraded and installation of car parking and the development of a Skate Park. Ronald confirmed that the Rugby Club have held a number of positive conversations with local sports clubs and event organisers with support being secured from each, adding that with proper facilities in place larger events can be held and that Oban could become a key destination for sporting and cultural events. The representatives recognised that the plans are ambitious but achievable with the support of the local community and securing the required funding. 9.0 Further Actions It is requested that the Management Committee note the report and the successful meetings held in February 2025. 10.0 Implications Strategic Implications Meetings of the Area Community Planning Group held in February covered elements of the three priorities in the Argyll and Bute Outcomes Improvement Plan. Consultations No prior circulation of this report. Resources No direct resource implications however consideration of the issues raised and following courses of action Page 28
Page 29
Classification: OFFICIAL may have a knock on effect on finance and/or staff resource Prevention Contributes to the prevention agenda Equalities Contributes toward reducing inequalities For More Information: John McLuckie, Partnerships Lead, john.mcluckie@argyll-bute.gov.uk Page 29
Page 30
This page is intentionally left blank
Page 31
Argyll and Bute CPP – National Community Planning Self-Assessment Draft Improvement Plan – March 2025 Improvement actions Lead Implications [Risk, Cost, Resource] Target Date Measure Outcomes 1. Further develop the partnerships mechanisms for understanding the needs of individuals and communities to support the work of the CPP. 1. Undertake mapping exercise to understand what mechanisms each individual partner has in place to understand the needs of individuals and communities. - Include engagement exercise with TSI and federation of small businesses to gather information about wider groups, communities and individuals. - Include forward look into upcoming plans, surveys, engagement to allow some collaboration around this and to access any findings. CPP Board Risks • Time and resources required to complete mapping work. • If we don’t engage properly, we won’t capture a wide range of views and only hear from a limited number of ‘loud voices’ and risk going in the wrong direction. Costs • Cost associated with mapping exercise. (Consider internship to support and add capacity to mapping work) December 2025 Development of an easily understood visual ecosystem map. This would be a live document that gets updated. A CPP that is recognised as more responsive to community needs. 2. Engage with the Area Community Partnership Groups to understand what would be beneficial for them via CPP Officers with Chairs and Vice Chairs October 2025 Development of an action plan based on the feedback gathered. Page 31 Agenda Item 5
Page 32
Improvement actions Lead Implications [Risk, Cost, Resource] Target Date Measure Outcomes Board meeting cycle and build in a feedback loop. 3. Look to encourage active citizenship and communities to take part in CPP. - Refresh things by explaining what the CPP is about. - Show how groups/ individuals can take part and can influence. - Demonstrate positive stories about what is happening around CPP work to encourage more engagement. Put out to Community Council convenors to get their thoughts on leading on this. Ongoing (via actions 1 and 2) Assess through quantitative and qualitative measures from individuals/groups if there has been an improvement in engagement after 6-9 months. 4. Engage directly with Community Councils, outlining the role and purpose of the CPP to educate how Community Councils can get involved and influence. Area Planning Groups/CPP Officers July 2025 Number of community councils turning up at ACPGs compared to previously. Page 32
Page 33
Improvement actions Lead Implications [Risk, Cost, Resource] Target Date Measure Outcomes 2. Consider the partnership’s approaches to Board member induction and ongoing development to ensure members are clear on their roles and responsibilities. 1. Plan two face to face development days per year. • These could follow a partnership meeting. • Location could be based on the theme or topic of the session. • Crowdsource ideas for session topics/ themes from all partners. • Undertake a skills analysis across the Board to identify potential development areas. • Idea of a back-to-basics refresher session for members. Establish a working group to take this action forward. Risks • People are unable to attend face to face sessions. • Members have additional costs for attending in-person. • Times of sessions – Members of Scottish Youth Parliament can’t take full day out of education. • Podcast – assumption that people can easily access. • Content of development days doesn’t meet aspirations – good thought required in planning. Costs Planning Stage following April Board Meeting. June 2026 for first year’s sessions to have taken place. Attendance numbers at face-to-face sessions. Feedback from members on the success of the days. Increased engagement and wider range of contributions from partners. Shared sense of mutual contribution to shared goals. Opportunity for members to engage face to face to better understand their role and responsibilities within the CPP. 2. Learn from other CPPs in terms of good practice in this area. • Make use of Community Planning Network and findings from National CPP Self-Assessment. Rona Gold and Improvement Service. May 2025 Evidence of ideas implemented from others good practice. Page 33
Page 34
Improvement actions Lead Implications [Risk, Cost, Resource] Target Date Measure Outcomes 3. Refresh Welcome Pack to ensure it is up to date. John McLuckie • Travel costs for members – reimbursing community representatives. April 2025 – dependent on submission of information from all partners. Annual feedback from members for June Board meetings. 4. Develop different approaches to sharing of Board information such as the use of a podcast. John McLuckie Plan in place by end of April 2025. Statistics relating to podcasts – number of podcasts produced, number of listeners, etc. Evaluate the success of this approach 1 year on. 5. Develop process for individual partner organisations to provide a suitable handover to new person joining the partnership. Establish working group to look at this. For consideration at June Board meeting. Process developed and implemented. Feedback from new members on their handover. Page 34
Page 35
Date: 8 April 2025 Update Report on Argyll and Bute Climate Action: a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. 1.0 Purpose The purpose of this report is to provide an update on the Community Planning Partnership’s Argyll And Bute Climate Action project: developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. 2.0 Recommendations The CPG is asked to note the approach and status of the project outlined in the report and to provide any comments or feedback to the project manager. In particular, the CPP is asked to • Approve the updated strategy document, previously approved as a draft by the CPP Management Committee in December 2024, • Approve updates to the Terms of Reference for the project steering group • Consider whether to treat Resilience as the top Priority Area for Action from the set of priority areas previously agreed by the Committee. 3.0 Background The CPP sub-group working on climate change is the Climate Change Working Group. Its current focus, following approval by the CPP Management Committee of the draft Climate Change Strategy in December 2024, is to produce an Action Plan in support of that strategy. Argyll Countryside Trust (ACT) is the employing body for the Climate Change Project Manager leading on the process, and the post (0.8 FTE) is funded by the CPP from end October 2023 to October 2025. This update sets out the current position. 4.0 Detail 4.1 Progress Page 35 Agenda Item 7a
Page 36
4.1.1 Strategy The CPP Management Committee approved the strategy as a draft at its meeting of 6 December 2024. The draft strategy was thereafter presented to the Climate Change Working Group and Area CPGs over January to March 2025, with requests for further feedback including appropriate engagement opportunities. Based on the feedback received, an updated draft is now attached for the CPP Management Committee’s approval. Principal changes are: • formatting and minor changes to improve readability • clearer linkage with the CPP’s three Outcomes • ensuring reference to electric vehicles/charging infrastructure • changing the number of Priority Areas for Action from 7 to 6 by bringing together Skills Development and Procurement/Supply Chain, bringing this more in line with other strategies in place across the CPP. The revised set of Priority Areas for Action is thus o Infrastructure (includes natural infrastructure) o Policy Influence o Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain o Resilience/Carbon Literacy o Risk Assessment o Crosscutting/Other 4.1.2 Action Plan The Management Committee previously agreed that: • the strategy should focus on action within its own agency to control or influence; • development of the action plan would likely reflect partners’ capacity to engage over and above their normal core work • the Management Committee should provide direction as the action plan develops on the balance between playing to the CPP partners’ strengths or seeking to address gaps and weaknesses. The Climate Change Working Group has been considering an Action Plan structured around the six Priority Areas for Action and a copy of the discussion document from its workshop in March and scheduled follow up in early April including an outline action plan is appended. Examples of actions included to date span: • actions from existing plans and strategies across the CPP members where collective action by the CPP can enhance delivery Page 36
Page 37
• suggestions from stakeholder meetings over the strategy development period • suggestions from broader meetings including Area CPG and local resilience groups • asks to central government with long lead in times • quick or low cost wins, especially around community resilience and risk assessment OLI ACPG provides an example where the ACPG has decided to establish a sub group to support up to date climate/resilience plans, including engaging with young people, across the CPP area as a defined action Some recurrent themes are: • The importance of policies and actions that reflect Argyll’s specific geography and demographics • Capacity building versus resourcing • The importance of community resilience with increased likeliness of ever greater climate and severe weather events • Some groups have suggested that resilience should be emphasised among the six Priority Areas for Action • Within Resilience, Communication has been suggested as the single overarching measure, particularly in light of post-Eowyn lessons 4.2 Next Steps Immediate next steps are: • Ongoing engagement, including Area level • Specific engagement on resilience including communities and LRP partners • Ongoing mapping, local impact projections and risk assessment • Ongoing action plan and project development Andy Macpherson, Climate Change Project Manager For more information, please contact: Andy Macpherson andy@act-now.org.uk Page 37
Page 38
This page is intentionally left blank
Page 39
A climate change strategy for Argyll & Bute Argyll & Bute Climate Action 1 Page 39
Page 40
Contents Executive Summary............................................................................................................................3 1. What does climate change mean for Argyll and Bute? Identifying risks and impacts......8 1.1 Hotter, drier summers............................................................................................................9 1.2 Warmer, wetter winters........................................................................................................10 1.3 More severe weather events, and more variability.........................................................11 1.4 Sea level rise...........................................................................................................................13 2. Scoping Risk...................................................................................................................................14 3. Identifying the actions that will address them.......................................................................17 3.1 Mitigation to reduce our climate change gas emissions: Climate Friendly................17 3.2 Adaptation to unavoidable impacts of climate change: Climate Ready.....................23 3.3 Engagement: Climate Just...................................................................................................27 4. Vision, outcomes and objectives..............................................................................................29 5. Identifying opportunity areas for action.................................................................................31 5.1 Infrastructure.........................................................................................................................33 5.2 Policy Influence.....................................................................................................................34 5.3 Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain .............................................................................34 5.4 Risk Assessment....................................................................................................................35 5.5 Resilience/Carbon Literacy.................................................................................................36 5.6 Crosscutting/Other...............................................................................................................36 6. Monitoring, Reporting and Evaluation.....................................................................................36 2 Page 40
Page 41
Executive Summary Climate change is one of the most serious threats that we face in Scotland. Rising temperatures, drier summers, wetter winters, sea level rise, and an increased risk of flooding, will all affect our lives. There is a global need to take action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions which are responsible, but changes in climate will not be completely eliminated by these actions. We also need to find ways of adapting to the effects of climate change. We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate. It has been developed through an engagement process managed by the Argyll Countryside Trust (ACT) on behalf of Argyll & Bute’s Community Planning Partnership Climate Working Group, with thanks to Argyll and Bute Council, NHS Highland, NatureScot and Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface for funding support and the Steering Group comprising volunteers from the Climate Working Group for further support. It links to Argyll & Bute’s Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024 – 2034 which focusses on improving the outcomes of Transport, Housing and Community Wellbeing. This is a strategy and action plan for Argyll & Bute. A region wide, community led, net-zero, climate change resilient, adaptation plan, in support of the vision that: 1 2 3 Argyll and the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust Community planning | Argyll and Bute Council Argyll and Bute Outcomes Improvement Plan 2024-2034 | Argyll and Bute Council 1 2 3 3 Page 41
Page 42
The heavy rain in early October 2023 caused £15m damage to transport infrastructure (mainly roads and bridges) in parts of Argyll & Bute Now and into the future, we want a thriving Argyll & Bute where our collective choices and actions enhance our continued wellbeing in a changing climate. Our climate change strategy seeks to tackle climate change, by working together to be: Climate Friendly: Reduce Argyll & Bute’s greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change (mitigation) Climate Ready: Resilient and adapted to unavoidable climate change (adaptation), and Climate Just: Ensure all of our communities are included (engagement). Sea level rise and coastal impacts are a concern. 80% of the population of Argyll & Bute lives within 1km of the coast (97% within 10km of coast), and we have over 200km of road within 25m of the sea (at high tide). 4 Page 42
Page 43
Climate Risk Impact Warmer, wetter winters: Increased rainfall volume and intensity Increased landslides, flooded water courses and more surface water Hotter, drier summers: higher average and higher peak temperatures, increased heatwave frequency and longer drought periods Higher risk of human and animal heat stress, illness and mortality, crop failure, wildfires and freshwater scarcity More severe, and more variable weather events: Less predictable but more frequent storms, increased variability in wind speed and direction, higher peak wind speeds, higher rainfall intensity Windblow, forest damage, road blockage, power line damage/power cuts, property damage, flooding, landslides Sea level rise and storm surges: increased coastal erosion Coastal infrastructure damage and loss, coastal retreat or protection cost Multi-hazards affecting people, species and habitats: Combination of hazards compounding climate risks and impacts Single actions less likely to address mitigation or adaptation. Solutions needs to maximise multiple benefits and work with natural processes Increased climate unpredictability Climate forecasts less predictable, actions need to be based on worst-case scenarios, resilience more dependent on agile and diverse actions Our strategy identifies the key climate risks impacting on Argyll & Bute and the areas in which we can take action to address them: 5 Page 43
Page 44
Areas for Action Infrastructure Addressing demand and impacts of better transport infrastructure to reduce reliance on private cars and provide for those who do not have a car; enhancing communications and grid infrastructure through maximising decarbonisation and renewable energy opportunities; natural capital: managing our green and blue infrastructure to reduce emissions and support resilience. Policy Influence Influencing national and regional public and non-public policies through the CPP’s collective voice in a way that recognises Argyll & Bute's distinctive geography and population. Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain Increasing opportunities for individuals to gain the skills required to deliver climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Promoting opportunities for climate mitigation, adaptation and community wealth building through improving circular economies within Argyll & Bute. Risk Assessment Deepening our understanding of the risks and opportunities, including economic risks and opportunities, presented by climate change to Argyll and Bute as a whole and to specific communities and sectors. Resilience/Carbon Literacy Promoting carbon literacy and greater resilience, across all CPP sectors to empower individuals to bring about climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Crosscutting/Other Encourage individuals, communities and agencies to take multiple actions and to identify new risks and opportunities. With fuel poverty nearly 50% higher than the Scottish average, and higher again in more rural areas, and private water supplies ten times the national average, our housing is largely insufficient to cope with our current climate and even less with the greater weather extremes forecast. Areas for action closest to the CPP’s remit and ability to control or influence: 6 Page 44
Page 45
The principles and approach guiding the Strategy are: An enabling strategy, rather than creating new duties or replacing existing ones, it identifies gaps and opportunities, especially those made possible by working together. Alignment with the CPP priorities of Transport Infrastructure, Housing and Community Wellbeing, which in turn are aligned to requirements in our national climate programmes. Embracing diversity, to recognise significant variation among our communities, places and landscapes, and that we are being affected by climate change in multiple ways. Focussing on common challenges across the region, such as the length and vulnerability of transport links, and our low population density that can make it harder to secure funding. Adapting as we build our understanding of the risks and opportunities we face, taking into account local knowledge and also local variations and capacity to adapt. In addition to incremental steps to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and transitional steps to enhance our capacity to adapt, there is also a transformational component: as we improve our ability to cope with climate needs we also improve our current circumstances. An example of this sort of transformational change is the importance of developing our local economy through developing appropriate local skills, produce and markets and the housing, energy and other infrastructure to support them. This reduces our transport and waste emissions at the same time as reducing our dependence on vulnerable, extended transport links and enables us to add value locally and reduce economic leakage, at the same time as supporting transformational growth sectors such as energy and valuing our natural capital. Engaging communities through networks of community champions linked to Climate Hubs centred on the four Argyll & Bute administrative areas. Developing resilience by developing skills and capacity to adapt to ongoing change alongside longer term transformational capital projects. Ensuring a socially just transition to a climate ready future: as we prepare for the impacts of the changing climate we do so in ways that are fair and tackle inequality. For more information please contact Andy Macpherson Climate Change Project Manager Argyll Countryside Trust andy@act-now.org.uk act-now.org.uk/cpp 4 ACT Now | Argyll and the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust4 7 Page 45
Page 46
1. What does climate change mean for Argyll and Bute? Identifying risks and impacts In short, the outlook for Argyll and Bute is overall increasing temperatures, with Hotter, drier summers Warmer, wetter winters More severe weather events, and more variability Sea level rise There are some common challenges across the region but there is also significant variation within and between communities, places and landscapes. More detailed information based on climate projections for 16 settlements across Argyll and Bute is in Appendix 1 and 2. The region’s characterising features of high geographical diversity, low population density, long coastlines, largely rural small, isolated and ageing communities and long distances all impact on considerations of what “good” climate action means for Argyll and Bute. However, we also have urban considerations with our largest single centre of population being Helensburgh, and other important settlements with urban issues but rural supply chains and correspondingly long and vulnerable transport and other communications links. 8 Page 46
Page 47
1.1 Hotter, drier summers Individual seasons vary and the cold and wet summer 2024 is in stark contrast to the hot, dry conditions prevailing in recent summers. Below we see summer temperatures for the overall Argyll River Basin area, which approximates closely to the overall Argyll and Bute area, with observed data and projected rise combined. Further climate projections specific to a representative set of 16 settlements across Argyll & Bute are in Appendix 1. In terms of the “drier” part, below are average summer precipitation rates for Argyll River Basin. 9 Page 47
Page 48
While temperature and precipitation projections indicate trends, another important consideration is minimum night time temperatures in summertime. The reason for this is that when there is less opportunity for buildings to cool down, the phenomenon of heat stress, particularly in vulnerable people, rises considerably. There is a strong link between heat stress and summer mortalities which are a growing trend particularly further south in the UK and Europe as temperatures increase with climate change, and a counterpart to the better known phenomenon of winter deaths due to cold and poorly heated and insulated housing. Current indications are that Argyll and Bute as a region is less likely to suffer water scarcity in coming decades than other parts of Scotland and the UK, although this does not rule out local impacts and potential infrastructure damage, as indicated in Scottish Water’s 2024 climate change strategy . About one third of the population of Argyll and Bute has a private water supply, which is ten times the Scottish average. This presents an Argyll-specific climate risk as private water supplies can be more vulnerable to interruption or contamination in periods of low rainfall or drought. 1.2 Warmer, wetter winters In contrast to the trend for hotter, drier summers, in winter observed data and projections both point to trends to warmer, wetter winters with fewer days of frost under the overall trend for increasing temperatures. 5 290224ScottishWaterAdaptationPlan.pdf5 10 Page 48
Page 49
We can also expect increases in severity and frequency of severe weather events. Damage and disruption from flooding and landslides is one example: the heavy rain in early October 2023 caused £15m damage to infrastructure (mainly roads & bridges) in parts of Argyll and Bute and was not even one of the series of named national storms that autumn. As at February 2025, damage from Storm Eowyn is yet to be calculated but even more widespread, with some communities without power or telecoms for five days. Severe weather - wind While we have some sophisticated modelling of future temperature and precipitation, wind is harder to model and the Met Office climate change centre states that Due to the lack of any observed trends, there haven’t been any studies so far which provide a link between changes in UK storminess and climate change . Notwithstanding, the frequency of storm events over 2023-24 and the significance of wind as in the diagrams below in these also point to the likelihood of more potential damage and disruption from wind. 1.3 More severe weather events, and more variability 6 UK and Global extreme events – Wind storms - Met Office6 11 Page 49
Page 50
Wind direction is of especial importance for Argyll and Bute due to the central role of marine transport in the area. Ferry and marine tourism operators have commented on the significance of wind direction events disrupting services and impacting upon coastal infrastructure, in addition to householders’ accounts of damage to roofs due to strong winds from unusual directions. Severe weather – heavy rain or snow The graph below shows historic and projected incidence of intense rainfall events, noting that “future changes in extreme rainfall events could be almost 10 times more frequent in Northwest Scotland in 2080 compared to the 1980s, whilst in the south of the UK the value is closer to three times more frequent.” 6 UK and Global extreme events – Wind storms - Met Office7 7 12 Page 50
Page 51
Sea level rise, both absolute and from storm surges, is a major concern for Argyll and Bute. 80% of the region’s population lives within 1km of the coast (97% within 10km), and we have over 200km of road within 25m of the sea (at high tide), especially in Cowal and Bute. Replacement costs of sea defences for this stretch were estimated at £300m in 2015 prices. This would be equivalent to approximately £420m today due to inflation alone, with the actual figure likely significantly greater due to increased materials costs and more severe climatic conditions predicted. Below we see projected sea level rise for Tobermory to the end of the century under a range of carbon emission scenarios. The upper two lines, green and blue, represent the most likely outcomes as these are based on current and historical global emissions trends. The difference between the two is that the green line, suggesting 0.6m rise at the end of the century, is the mid range of the high emissions scenario whereas the blue line, at over 0.9m, represents what is described as the “upper end allowance” to take into account the most severe impact projections, drawn from UK Government guidance on data interpretation to inform coastal flood planning : 6 Flood and coastal risk projects, schemes and strategies: climate change allowances - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) 8 1.4 Sea level rise 8 13 Page 51
Page 52
The Dynamic Coast project provides an excellent tool to aid visualising impacts of sea level rise which can readily be applied at a scale from one square kilometre upwards. Taking Campbeltown as an example, the image below indicates the effect of a sea level rise under both the likely high emissions scenario and also the potential reduction if global emissions were cut rapidly: HES vs LES dashboard9 9 The combined Highland and Argyll flood risk management plan estimates 15,000 homes at risk of flooding (Highland as well as Argyll) increasing to 38,000 by the 2080s due to climate change. 2. Scoping Risk The processes of developing risk assessments in support of adaptation plans taken by Climate Ready Clyde and other regional climate change plans have started with screening the UK Climate Change Committee’s Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) to identify a core set of risks and opportunities. For Argyll and Bute Climate Action this comprised a peer group review of the initial scoping by the project manager of the set of 61 strategic risks identified by UKCCRA and grouped into 5 categories: Natural Environment and Assets; Infrastructure; Health, Communities and Built Environment; Business and Industry; and International Dimensions. 14 Page 52
Page 53
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: Scoping Risks and Opportunities for CPP - project officer scoping Risk/ Opportunity Category Description In/ Out Rationale UKCCRA Score CPP Outcome I Infrastructure Risk I12. Transport High and low temperatures, high winds, lightning In Water transport inparticular is highly affected by wind More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk I13. Digital High and low temperatures, high winds, lightning In Digital infrastructure is already vulnerable Further investigation Transport & Infrastructure B Business and Industry Risk B1: Flooding of business sites Increase in flood risk In Known issue in multiple areas More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk B2: Coastal business locations and infrastructure Coastal flooding, extreme weather, erosion, and sea level rise In Known issue in multiple areas More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk B5: Employee productivity Infrastructure disruption and higher temperatures in working environments In Often underacknowledged as a risk in other areas Further investigation Housing Risk B6: Disruption to business supply chains and distribution networks Extreme weather In Transport & other links already extended & vulnerable, possible opportunities from pooling resources, early warning systems More action needed Transport & Infrastructure H Health, Communities, and the Built Environment Risk H1. Health and wellbeing High temperatures In Disproprortionate effects on most vulnerable More action needed Housing Risk H3. People, communities, and buildings Flooding In Already a known issue More action needed Housing Risk H4. Viability of coastal communities Sea level rise In Especially when combined with surface water and storm surge More action needed Housing Risk H5. Building fabric Moisture, wind and driving rain In Already a known issue Further investigation Housing Risk H7. Health and wellbeing Changes in indoor and outdoor air quality In Potentially also "Housing" due to incidence of damp in housing stock Further investigation Wellbeing Risk H8. Health Vector-borne disease In Particularly with some species moving further north and impact of flooding Further investigation Wellbeing Risk H9. Food safety and food security Higher temperatures (food safety) and extreme weather (food security) In Knock on effects of weather on transport infrastructure Further investigation Wellbeing These 5 categories were then aligned with the CPP outcomes of Transport Infrastructure, Housing and Community Wellbeing. This has necessarily been an arbitrary exercise as many of the risks are crosscutting. “Community” was interpreted to include non human communities in order to fit nature and biodiversity within the set of three outcomes. 15 The result is a set of 7 proposed risk groups, cross checked with lived experience drawn from stakeholder meetings and feedback from the ABCAN Climate Action Network: Flooding (water courses and surface water) Heavy rainfall, storms and landslides Temperature change, heatwaves and drought Wildfires Sea level rise & coastal erosion Multi-hazards affecting people, species, habitats Anything else? An initial scoping In/Out was suggested, with a short rationale for scoping each risk In/Out included, based on the CPP’s remit and ability to take action or have influence in relation to the respective risks. The full spreadsheet is provided in Appendix 3 with the image below providing a snapshot for illustration. Page 53
Page 54
Currently 2050s to 2080s Salmon production £0.5m- £5m/year £5m-£25m/year Whisky production £5m- £25m/year Over £25m/year Impact on forestry from wildfires £5m- £25m/year £18m-£80m/year Following the initial scoping and peer scoping, the findings were presented to the September meeting of the CPP Full Partnership, Climate Change Working Group and Area Community Planning Groups. The Full Partnership meeting was in person and participants were asked to indicate their perception of these risks based on their own experience either personally or upon their organisations or areas of work, with the results being: Heavy rainfall, storms and landslides 84% Flooding (water courses and surface water) 66% Sea level rise & coastal impacts 47% Multi-hazards affecting people, species, habitats 25% Temperature change, heatwaves and drought 25% Wildfires 19% Anything else? Possible other unknowns 3% Several CPP members have risk assessments planned for this year or the immediate future. Various regional adaptation initiatives have commissioned consultant support in developing risk assessments and Risk/Economic Assessment is proposed as one of the set of ten measures in the Gaps and Opportunities section. In support of this, key findings from Highland Adapts’ recently published risk and opportunity and economic assessments relating to a set of key sectors comparable to Argyll and Bute are cited in the expectation that these can be replaced with Argyll- specific assessments over the action plan development phase. Risk and Opportunity Assessments by key Sectors from Highland Adapts The analysis includes circular economy considerations which resonate strongly with Argyll and Bute’s proposed approach to Community Wealth Building. In September 2024 Highland Adapts released their economic analysis of three key sectors which form part of their wider ongoing Climate Risk and Opportunity Assessment. This includes risks to: Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Highlands (highlandadapts.scot)10 This scoping is emphatically not about what risks are the most important, but about what are within the CPP’s scope and ability to take action. Assessment of risks facing local communities including their health and wellbeing is proposed as the priority area closest to the CPP remit. 16 Page 54
Page 55
Crucial to efforts to mitigate our contribution to climate change is the concept of “net zero”. This is the approach to mitigation adopted by the Scottish and UK Governments on the basis that while we can seek to reduce emissions from our actions and processes we cannot always eliminate them altogether. Net zero requires that where we are unable to reduce emissions to zero in some areas we need to ensure that in others we go beyond zero such as by appropriately managed afforestation, peatland and marine (blue carbon) restoration and more controversially through carbon capture and storage technology. This is of particular significance to Argyll and Bute with extensive areas of forest and peatland, extensive coastline and a small population relative to the area. A critical point is that these existing reserves do not constitute carbon reduction: only restoration or creation of new reserves would achieve this. The Operational Plan underlying the strategy notes that, “it is expected that Mitigation will mostly be directed and mandated through national regulatory and incentive programs” in order to 3. Identifying the actions that will address them 3.1 Mitigation to reduce our climate change gas emissions: Climate Friendly identify the opportunities for Argyll and Bute to reduce emissions at least in line with national targets maximise the sequestration of carbon in our natural landscapes highlight areas where action is needed in the next five years to prepare the ground for these changes what we can leave to national processes to deliver, and where we can help quicken the pace of change identify region-wide approaches and also take account of the variation in opportunities across different communities, places and landscapes 17 Page 55
Page 56
Not all bodies have a published Carbon Management/Decarbonisation Plan. Some report that this is planned or in progress and there are potential opportunities in joint working and skill and data sharing across the CPP to support this. The Scottish Government expects to develop templates for area-wide emissions to complement individual bodies’ reports over the next year to 18 months, which may bring wider emissions within scope of the CPP partner bodies’ duties. Similarly, the Scottish Government have work in progress to make reporting requirements around Scope 3 emissions (supply chain) clearer and more robust. Most of the CPP partner members have Public Body Climate Change reporting duties under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act based on the current (2022-23) set of reports as published by the Sustainable Scotland Network , and collectively these organisations bodies have averaged reductions of 41% since their baseline reporting years. Reductions are presented as percentage rather than as gross figures because many of the bodies cover wider geographic areas than Argyll and Bute. These are summarised in the Emissions 2023 tab of the spreadsheet GORE Gaps Opportunities Risks Emissions reproduced in Appendix 3. 11 https://sustainablescotlandnetwork.org/slickr_media_upload?id=200512 Currently the two emissions data sets specifically covering the Argyll and Bute boundary are Argyll and Bute Council’s emissions figures as presented in its Climate Change Duties Report , and the Local Authority Greenhouse Gas Map from the National Atmospheric Emissions Laboratory. Due to the high area of afforested land, land use in Argyll delivers a net saving of 532 ktCO2e making our total emissions across all sectors only 257 ktCO2e despite being the second largest county by area. This also translates to 3 tonnes per capita which is 25% under the global average of 4 tonnes (although to have the best chance of avoiding a 2℃ rise in global temperatures, the average global carbon footprint per year needs to drop to under 2 tons by 2050). These can easily be interpreted as a recipe for inaction, but if we discount the forestry figure, our regional emissions come to 676 ktCO2e with our per capita emissions up correspondingly. 12 13 14 Reports (sustainablescotlandnetwork.org)11 Local Authority GHG Map (beis.gov.uk)14 2021-22 figures used. 2022-23 figures have been published but GHG Map still using 2021.13 18 Page 56
Page 57
In order to enable some form or comparison, the gap and opportunity analysis exercise looked at percentage emissions changes for these organisations in order to enable a picture of the overall relative direction and pace of travel. Argyll and Bute Council’s emissions figures refer to its own operations rather than to the area as a whole, so the figures are not directly comparable with the Local Authority Greenhouse Gas Map. 11 Other public bodies operating in the region produce their own emissions plans and reports. Meetings to date have identified that for some of these they are currently revising decarbonisation/carbon management plans. However, the other public bodies operating in the area work to different geographical boundaries, with some operating only in part of the area, and others covering wider regional areas such as Argyll and Highland, or operating nationally, so again this means that figures for the various organisations from these reports are not directly comparable. Collectively, the public bodies in Argyll with climate reporting duties have achieved an average reduction of 41% in carbon emissions over the period in which they have been reporting (usually around 10 years) and common consensus is that the easy wins have long since been made with further reductions largely dependent upon major infrastructure developments to support lower carbon energy and transport. 19 Page 57
Page 58
Argyll and Bute Climate Action: Summary of CPP Public Body Climate emissions From partners covered by Climate Duty reporting requirements CPP Member Scope 1 Scope 2 Scope 3 Total emissions Emissions trend from baseline Emissions change from baseline Geography Note Direct emissions from sources that the organisation owns or controls directly Indirect emissions and purchased energy Everything outside Scope 1 and 2. Also value and supply chain, waste, commuting and home working All bodies have had fluctuations including from changing reporting requirements Baseline years vary and all bodies have benefited from decarbonisation of electricity Argyll and Bute Council 8700 3780 14000 26500 Down Down 33% A&B UHI Argyll A&B Health and Social Care Partnership/NHS Highland 19620 6211 731 26560 Down Down 25% Highland and A&B Highlands and Islands Enterprise 147 165 183 495 Down Down 67% H&I,A&B Loch Lomond & Trossachs National Park 123 73 47 243 Down Down 37% Multiple LA Areas Police Scotland 26557 9929 2874 39360 Down Down 43% Scotland Scottish Ambulance Service 23500 930 1150 25600 Down Down 9% Scotland Scottish Enterprise 372 195 738 1300 Down Down 78% Scotland Scottish Fire and Rescue Service 10837 3632 777 15246 Down Down 35% Scotland NatureScot 352 216 346 915 Down Down 42% Scotland SEPA 395 510 837 1742 Down Down 47% Scotland Skills Development Scotland 158 198 1682 2038 Down Down 47% Scotland SportScotland [blank] 584 106 690 Down Down 60% Scotland Strathclyde Partnership for Transport 447 2466 291 3204 Down Down 68% Clyde HITRANS 1 6 7 Down Down 56% H&I, A&B VisitScotland 79 203 617 899 Down Down 73% Scotland Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) 40000 28154 6600 74850 Down Down 31% UK Crofting Commission 0.5 3 12 15 Down Down 23% Scotland Forestry Commission (Scottish Forestry) 40 45 213 298 Up Up 12% Scotland Forestry Commission (Forest & Land Scotland) 2352 511 556 3418 Down Down 9% Scotland CALMAC -CMAL Scotland Scottish Water 39000 85000 93000 217000 Down Down 53% Scotland Average reduction 41% Beyond the public sector, emissions information is much less readily available and there is limited scope for the strategy via the CPP to place requirements on other bodies to take action or make information available, although there is some potential such as via incentive uptake rates where these are reported and this will be an important consideration for the route map. A useful piece of terminology to help understand how carbon emissions are reported is the distinction between Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions. Scope 1 refers to direct emissions from sources that the organisation owns or controls directly, such as emissions from fleet vehicles or boilers for heating buildings. Scope 2 is indirect emissions and purchased energy such as purchased electricity for heating buildings or running equipment. Scope 3 is more complex as this covers everything outside Scopes 1 and 2, including procurement and the wider supply chain, commuting and homeworking and also waste. For most CPP partners, Scope 3 is the hardest to measure category of emissions. The operational plan makes specific reference to sequestration. This is the term for capturing, stabilising and storing carbon rather than have it escape into the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. Estimates for economic opportunities for carbon sequestration range from £8.7m, based on restoring 10% of local degraded peatland, to more than £3bn when looking at longer-term high value integrated projects .15 Carbon sequestration Argyll and Bute research | HIE15 20 Page 58
Page 59
ACT are participants in the Facility for Investment Ready Nature in Scotland (FIRNS), working to develop a project integrity charter and a governance and enterprise model. The outcome of this project and the other 26 FIRNS projects currently being worked through in Scotland will help to define how natural capital finance can work in Scotland and support delivery of climate action specific to Argyll and Bute, while also potentially helping to address widespread perceptions that more could be done to improve the social and economic as well as environmental impacts of land use, land use change and forestry. Facility for Investment Ready Nature in Scotland (FIRNS) project | Argyll and the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust Steering Group partners have emphasised the importance of ensuring that sequestration measures and any emissions reductions claimed are genuine, and also the risk of the high amount of forestry in Argyll and Bute artificially reducing per capita and per hectare emissions and that this could be misinterpreted as a recipe for inaction and complacency on climate change. Discussions of carbon sequestration are further nuanced by the concepts of offsetting and a newer and less well known alternative, “insetting”. This concept will be of increasing importance for Argyll and Bute. Offsetting refers to the buying of carbon credits to offset carbon emissions that a body is unable or unwilling to reduce, and has been the subject of repeated criticisms concerning how robust the models employed are and how genuine and lasting any emission savings are. Insetting has been described by the Carbon Literacy Project as “carbon insetting focuses on doing more good rather than doing less bad within one’s value chain. Instead of investing in projects outside their value chains, companies engaging in carbon insetting invest in reducing carbon emissions within their own value chains. At the same time, these projects can also create positive impacts on communities, landscapes and ecosystems.”17 https://www.argyll-bute.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023- 05/woodland_and_forestry_strategy_april_2011_ac.pdf 16 An important point of clarification is the distinction between commercial forestry, typically involving a single tree species planted and then harvested on a 35-40 year cycle, and native woodland with a wider variety of species, including ancient woodland and rainforest. Fast growing commercial species capture carbon more quickly while growing, but if used for biomass once harvested this carbon is then released again into the atmosphere, and the disturbance of soil during planting and harvesting releases further carbon (forest soil typically stores twice as much carbon as the trees). The Argyll and Bute Woodland and Forestry Strategy notes that “While new woodland is an excellent means of sequestering atmospheric carbon and will play an important role in Scotland’s response to climate change mitigation, protecting sensitive peat soils – major carbon stores in their own right – is critical to prevent unnecessary carbon liberation” and that “Maintaining and expanding the native woodland resource will also be important in generating longer-lived carbon stores”. Carbon Insetting vs Carbon Offsetting - The Carbon Literacy Project17 21 Page 59
Page 60
Argyll has some of the finest remnants of temperate rainforest in all of Europe. Restoring the rainforest and associated habitats of Argyll & the Isles will give rainforest biodiversity the best chance to adapt to our changing climate, to sequester carbon and to prevent soil erosion and flooding. Scottish Rainforest restoration projects are creating the equivalent of 40 new full-time jobs and investing £3.2 million in rural communities, with over half of that investment being in Argyll. Distinctions between mitigation/reducing carbon emissions, and adaptation/taking action to reduce the impacts of unavoidable climate change can be blurred and in the case of CPP partners, and opportunities for reducing emissions through working in partnership, this is even more the case. The subtleties of offsetting and insetting are of major potential significance for Argyll and Bute. Research by the Scottish Association for Marine Science for Highland and Islands Enterprise on optimising carbon sequestration opportunities in Argyll and Bute indicates that terrestrial ecosystems in Argyll and Bute hold between 587-990 MtCO2e (million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent), of which 510-898 MtCO2e comes from soils to 1 m depth and 77-90 MtCO2e is held within the aboveground vegetation, half of which is held within the woodlands and forests. Put another way, soil stocks alone hold more than ten times Scotland’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. For the marine environment, the same research indicates that the marine sediments of Argyll and Bute hold an estimated 166 MtCO2e carbon. Another example is the CPP’s role in prevention and enhancing resilience and addressing vulnerability: if collective action on resilience and community wellbeing can reduce demand on emergency services this can also reduce Scope 1 emissions due to fleet emissions for these organisations, which for this category of services is their greatest single source of emissions. 18 https://www.hie.co.uk/media/13011/optimising-carbon-sequestration-opportunities-in-ab-sams-wp1-and-3.pdf 18 The examples above indicate the amount of carbon stored in land and the potential for enhancing carbon storage through land management, but bringing, for example, peatland and woodlands into positive management also offer opportunities to reduce flood and wildfire risk as well as enhancing biodiversity, local amenity and creating job opportunities. 22 Page 60
Page 61
3.2 Adaptation to unavoidable impacts of climate change: Climate Ready With global carbon emissions continuing to rise and increasing incidence of different and extreme weather events and temperature records, the importance of adaptation continues to grow. Mitigation is expected to be mostly driven by existing national plans and targets, complemented by partnership opportunities, and many of the easy wins have already been made. Adaptation is less explored and at the same time frequently of greater understandable importance and immediacy to communities: impacts of road and other transport closures, floods and high rain and winds all provide recent examples felt by all throughout the region. These threats are compounded by the length and vulnerability of transport links and also the low population density making capital funding harder to access, but conversely where taking measures to support community resilience, compounded with building upon local knowledge and experience and wider reviews such as the 2023 Scotland Adaptation Progress Report can identify opportunities. As with mitigation, key achievements or opportunities are indicated where possible and recurrent or major themes are brought into a short list of potential measures. Organisations do not currently have to have published adaptation plans but this is under review and the Scottish Government may mandate this in future for public bodies. Although addressed to the Scottish Government, the top ten of the 51 recommendations from the Progress Report are also relevant at local level: Ensure that support for adaptation alongside decarbonisation is included in key building policies Address data gaps on impacts to buildings and adaptation actions by utilising already available data to track resilience of the building stock, monitoring of samples of existing buildings in at-risk locations, and home resilience reporting that include assessments of flood and overheating resilience. Proactive adaptation measures for overheating and flood resilience in buildings. Identifying at-risk buildings, awareness raising, training and engagement on property- level flood protection. Address data gaps on Scottish business preparedness, availability of capital and insurance for adaptation, and the effectiveness of business adaptation actions. Measures for reducing water use by business. Supply chain resilience to climate hazards Adaptation reporting requirements 19 https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/adapting-to-climate-change-progress-in-scotland/19 23 Page 61
Page 62
Initiatives for place-based and cross-sectoral adaptation and including support for vulnerable areas and sectors Long-term planning, including monitoring of weather-related incident response The UK Climate Change Committee’s 10 adaptation principles applied to Argyll & Bute Principle Progress/Opportunities for Action 1 A vision for a well adapted UK Proposed vision: “We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate” 2 Integrate adaptation into other policies Examples include links with flood resilience plans, community risk register, housing and transport policies, sustainable procurement, carbon literate training. 3 Adapt to 2°C; assess the risks for 4°C Always work to high emissions scenarios 4 Avoid lock-in (eg building new homes without designing in adaptations to future conditions such as extreme heat) This links well with integrating with other policies, by seeking to identify co benefits and also to avoid reliance on a single action or technology. The geographic scale and diversity of Argyll and Bute also mandate this approach. Also the importance of factoring climate into eg major infrastructure projects. 5 Prepare for unpredictable extremes This requires an acceptance that the unexpected can happen and emphasises the need to enhancing overall resilience in addition to specific flood/heatwave etc measures 6 Assess interdependencies This is one of the great strengths of the CPP model where many of the key agencies and partnership working can help to address interdependencies. Many adaptation measures can also have strong links with mitigation. 7 Understand threshold effects Things happen fast after thresholds or tipping points are crossed (eg algal blooms when water is over 17 centigrade), meaning a new course of action may be needed, but adaptation plans have often focussed on gradual changes over time. Building up a bank of threshold effects appropriate to Argyll can inform how to take these into account. 8 Address inequalities Working through the CPP priority outcomes around Transport Infrastructure, Housing and Community Wellbeing provides a strong basis for this. There are well documented links between climate vulnerability and social inequality and the community remit of the CPP can support prioritising accordingly. 9 Consider opportunities Meetings with key partners and literature review to inform the gap and opportunity analysis have identified 6 main opportunity areas for action: Infrastructure Policy Influence Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Risk/Economic Assessment Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training Skills Development 10 Funding, resourcing, metrics, research A specific task in the operational plan is to identify funding and pilot opportunities. 24 Page 62
Page 63
A climate risk assessment for Argyll and Bute will be required as part of ongoing work, and one proposed priority area for action is to collaborate with Community Planning partners who are starting their own processes of developing adaptation plans who need to undertake climate risk assessments. The first draft of this strategy circulated in March 2023 proposed the set of 15 headline “Consequences ” identified by Adaptation Scotland as a starting point for scoping climate risk in Argyll to inform future risk assessment work. The productivity of our agriculture and forests: potential to improve growing conditions and increase the productivity of agriculture and forestry, but also threats from more variable and extreme weather to the spread of pests and diseases. The occurrence of pests and disease The quality of our soils: We rely on soils to sustain biodiversity, support agriculture and forestry, regulate the water cycle and store carbon. Soils and vegetation may be altered by changes to rainfall and increased temperatures - as well as the way we use the land. The health of our natural environment: Climate change may affect the delicate balance of Scotland’s ecosystems and transform Scotland’s habitats and biodiversity, adding to existing pressures. Some distinctive Scottish species may struggle and could be lost, invasive non-native species may thrive, while a degraded environment may not be able to sustain productive land or water supply. Temperate rainforest is especially susceptible to the impacts of climate change: Argyll has some of the best examples of this in Europe, with unmitigated climate change, climatic suitability for temperate rainforest could be lost from Argyll by the end of the century. The security of our food supply: Although Scotland may be able to grow more food, this will not offset the impact global disruption has on us. The effects of increased volatility in the global commodity market due to exposure to extreme climatic events has an impact on supply and cost of food. The availability and quality of water: Summer droughts may become more frequent and more severe causing problems for water quality and supply. The increased risk of flooding The change at our coast: More coastal flooding, erosion and coastline retreat. The health of our marine environment: The changes will present both threats and opportunities to our commercial fisheries and aquaculture. 20 Adaptation: Risk Assessment 25 Page 63
Page 64
The resilience of our businesses: Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt transport, energy and communication networks in Scotland and around the world. This could impact on markets, affect supply chains and raise insurance costs. The health and wellbeing of our people: A warming climate may provide more opportunity to be outdoors and enjoy a healthy and active lifestyle, while reducing mortality in winter. However, it could affect patterns of disease and other health issues. Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt the lives of individuals and communities, limiting access to vital services and impacting on people’s physical and mental health. Our cultural heritage and identity: The changing climate is already altering our unique Scottish landscape and threatening our historic environment through coastal erosion, flooding and wetter, warmer conditions. The security and efficiency of our energy supply: In addition to local generation and transmission, impacts on global energy markets may also affect energy supplies in Scotland and consequently our overall energy security. The performance of our buildings Infrastructure – network connectivity and interdependencies: Our infrastructure is closely inter-linked and failure in any area can lead to wider disruption across these networks. In line with the methodology developed by Climate Ready Clyde and subsequently adopted in modified form by subsequent regional climate initiatives, these and the set of 61 risks identified in the UC Climate Change Committee’s Climate Change Risk Assessment (Summary for Scotland) were put through a screening and scoping exercise by the project manager and peer groups to identify a set of key risk areas, and also presented to the CPP Full Partnership, Climate Change Working Group and Area Community Planning Groups for corroboration with their own experience. 26 Page 64
Page 65
We are using “climate just” as shorthand for Just Transition. The Scottish Government has defined just transition as “A just transition is both the outcome – a fairer, greener future for all – and the process that must be undertaken in partnership with those impacted by the transition to net zero. Just transition is how we get to a net zero and climate resilient economy, in a way that delivers fairness and tackles inequality and injustice.” 3.3 Engagement: Climate Just In the context of developing a climate change strategy for Argyll and Bute, engagement spans: Core Community Planning Partnership partners Wider CPP partners CPP technical partners National technical partners and networks Wider Argyll & Bute institutions and networks Communities across Argyll and Bute, including Administrative areas Individual locations and settlements The three guiding principles underlying the ABCA business case are fundamental to the engagement approach: Argyll and Bute communities, places and landscapes are being affected by climate change in different ways. There are likely to be common challenges across the region but there will also be significant variation within and between communities, places and landscapes. The proposed climate risk and opportunity assessment and follow on mitigation, adaptation planning and implementation must identify region-wide climate risks and opportunities for action and take account of local variations and capacity to adapt. All aspects of the initiative will be carried out in an inclusive and accessible way and reflect on just transition. Priority will be given to ensuring that communities, physical or virtual, are engaged in these processes and that local knowledge and experience is valued and used. 21 https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy- plan/2021/09/transition-fairer-greener-scotland/documents/transition-fairer-greener- scotland/transition-fairer-greener-scotland/govscot%3Adocument/transition-fairer-greener- scotland.pdf 21 27 Page 65
Page 66
Parallel to ABCA strategy development is the Argyll and Bute Climate Action Network (ABCAN) project with Scottish Government funding in support of outcomes including: Widen participation by engaging new communities and strengthening existing activity. Increase in community led climate change mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity projects, driven by communities themselves, contributing to a fair and just transition to net zero. Increasing community resilience and knowledge of how to respond to climate change; Strengthened and increased collaboration and knowledge sharing across and between community groups, public, private and 3rd sector partners leading to an acceleration in community action Minority and disadvantaged communities are visible, confident and active within the network, taking part and leading climate action activities. Increase in community climate literacy, which directly leads to a 5 - 15% reduction in participant’s carbon footprints. Increase in involvement in policy setting, decision making and local place planning with climate lens by communities. This parallel initiative greatly enhances the reach of the overall ACT/CPP climate effort. Although separately funded and staffed, the two projects are working in close collaboration and a basis for distinction is that ABCAN Hub has more of a grassroots and community focus whereas ABCA Strategy is slightly more oriented towards institutions, but can also ensure that the grassroots activity and aspirations from the Hub have a strategic voice. 22 ACT Now | Argyll and the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust22 This collaboration includes working with Argyll and Bute Council to support the inclusion of the “Climate Lens” in developing Local Place Plans with community councils and other bodies across the region. 28 Page 66
Page 67
Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership has three priority outcomes: Transport Infrastructure Housing Community Wellbeing. This principle is followed here and in Appendix 5 the CPP outcomes are aligned against national and wider climate outcomes including National Performance Framework Net Zero Nation, UN Sustainable Development Goals and most significantly for this strategy the five outcomes of the Scottish National Adaptation Plan (SNAP3) : Public Services and Infrastructure: Public services are collaborating in effective, inclusive adaptation action. Communities: Communities creating climate-resilient, healthy and equitable places. Nature Connects: Nature connects across our lands, settlements, coasts and seas. Economy, Industry and Business: Economies and industries are adapting and realising opportunities in Scotland’s Just Transition. International: Scotland’s international role supports climate justice and enhanced global action on climate adaptation. 4. Vision, outcomes and objectives 23 Vision Our vision is that We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate Outcomes Climate change: Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)23 29 Page 67
Page 68
Scottish National Adaptation Plan Outcomes Argyll & Bute Community Planning Partnership Outcomes Public Services and Infrastructure: Public services are collaborating in effective, inclusive adaptation action. Transport Infrastructure Communities: Communities creating climate-resilient, healthy and equitable places. Housing, Community Welbeing Nature Connects: Nature connects across our lands, settlements, coasts and seas. Community Wellbeing Economy, Industry and Business: Economies and industries are adapting and realising opportunities in Scotland’s Just Transition. Transport Infrastructure, Housing International: Scotland’s international role supports climate justice and enhanced global action on climate adaptation. Transport Infrastructure, Community Wellbeing The alignment of the five outcomes of the Scottish National Adaptation Plan with the CPP outcomes is: Objectives Governance and leadership Identifying leadership and champions (organisations and community) Liaison and reporting with CPP structures Vision and theory of change Engagement strategy Logo, branding and image Understanding the challenge Audit & gap analysis Mitigation Adaptation Engagement The objectives for the strategy are grouped under three work packages agreed by the CPP 30 Page 68
Page 69
Planning and implementation Quick win opportunities Pilot projects Training Funding Scope options for planning and implementation (Transport, Housing, Community Wellbeing) Proposals for taking forward specifics under these are listed in the Task List in Appendix 6.2. This refers to working up the strategy. The Action Plan is then to be developed with partners in the remaining half of the project to take forward delivery under the principal Areas for Action identified through the gap and opportunity analysis. 5. Identifying opportunity areas for action We started with a need to find out what is already happening and where there are gaps or opportunities and greatest risks. This cuts across mitigation, adaptation and engagement. This has been informed through: Review of CPP partners’ Climate Change Duty reports Review of partners’ climate change plans where published Review of other regional climate plans Review of other plans and strategies relevant to Argyll and Bute Support from Sniffer/Adaptation Scotland and Sustainable Scotland Network Meetings with stakeholders including CPP representatives Feedback from the wider community mainly via the A&B Climate Action Network Hubs In Argyll and Bute, the most comprehensive and consistent information relating to the overall picture of current climate action comes from the Climate Duty reports provided by the public bodies operating in the area. This provides a strong although not perfect match with the main bodies in the CPP and consequently this can provide an illustration of both activity within the CPP and potential gaps where the CPP may have agency or capacity to take action, either collectively or by constituent bodies. 31 Page 69
Page 70
These are complemented by published climate strategies but not all organisations have these and some treat items such as risk assessments as confidential internal documents Meetings with stakeholders have included suggestions relating to other organisations, and these are currently excluded from the analysis as “informal”, although they may inform discussion on developing the action plan. A collaboration with Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface is under development to undertake a comprehensive audit of the sector across Argyll and Bute including elements on climate readiness which can further inform the development of the Action Plan in support of this strategy over 2025. Likewise, meetings with stakeholders outside the public sector have revealed a wide range of action but less regarding reporting requirements relating to these. Future work including business grants and agricultural/land management payments will include elements of carbon and other environmental reporting but these are currently work in progress to be captured within the Action Plan as this is developed over 2025. A collaboration with Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface is under development to undertake a comprehensive audit of the sector across Argyll and Bute including elements on climate readiness which can further inform the development of the Action Plan in support of this strategy over 2025. Developing the Action Plan also needs to be informed by local knowledge from partners and the wider community, requiring ongoing engagement to complement the literature review and meetings held to date. Building upon the literature review and engagement, a set of opportunity areas for action was developed, aligned against key findings from the partners’ published Public Body Climate Duty reports: Infrastructure Policy Influence Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Risk/Economic Assessment Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training Skills Development (Subsequently combined with Procurement and Supply Chain) Other 32 Page 70
Page 71
These categories of measures were reviewed by peers via a spreadsheet with three columns of drop down boxes in order to prioritise measures associated with the Climate Duty reports to establish a group of thematic measures appropriate to the CPP’s remit and scope of control and influence in order to inform ongoing development of the Action Plan. Opportunity Areas for Action 5.1 Infrastructure Infrastructure is a primary concern in Argyll and Bute, with the length and vulnerability of the transport network to flooding, landslides and coastal impacts attracting comment from nearly all stakeholder and community meetings. The region’s geography also 33 Page 71
Page 72
that marine and air transport links are major considerations in addition to road and rail. 5.2 Policy Influence “Policy influence” covers areas that are not within the CPP’s ability to control but where the collective voice of the CPP or its individual members may seek to inform or influence policy. This is seen as an important role for the CPP by many, with a common perception that many climate-related policies are more suited to densely populated and predominantly urban areas rather than to Argyll and Bute’s distinctive geography and population. There is less consensus among stakeholders on the extent to which this is a concern for the Community Planning Partnership as distinct to the specific groups within the CPP with expertise and responsibility for transport infrastructure and links with flood resilience planning. There is more consensus among stakeholders on the CPP’s role in addressing demand and impacts upon transport infrastructure including propensity to travel and potential to influence travel choices to reduce reliance on private cars, noting that 30% of households in Argyll and Bute do not have a car. Communications and grid infrastructure are also major concerns: enhancing grid capacity is a key element of decarbonising both transport (electric vehicle charging) and housing as well as enabling further renewable energy developments in the region which is seen as a key economic and climate opportunity. Addressing digital exclusion is a priority for Argyll and Bute and the resilience of telecommunications links in the face of climate change was a repeated theme in stakeholder meetings, including some concerns over the switchover from physical copper-based landlines to internet-based services. Natural or Green/blue infrastructure is a major consideration for Argyll and Bute, with nature based solutions such as natural flood risk management to complement hard engineering where appropriate as well as the carbon saving opportunities – and potential economic opportunities – associated. 5.3 Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain Community Wealth Building is seen as a major climate change opportunity including in terms of shortening supply chains, strengthening local markets and the local economy, supporting jobs and skills development and a just transition to a greener economy. 34 Page 72
Page 73
Multiple stakeholders commented on the potential for the CPP’s combined procurement activity to support community wealth building in addition to potentially reducing duplication and transport impacts. Procurement is a tightly regulated area and all CPP budgets are under pressure, so there is a need to balance climate change considerations alongside affordability, availability value for money, fitness for purpose and other best value considerations. This is an area that falls within Scope 3 emissions, and as such likely to be subject to increasing reporting requirements. Several CPP partners have provided instances where local providers have been able to deliver in preference to large providers from outside the region, enabling money to stay within the region and supporting local employment and skills at the same time as delivering best value. Supplier engagement programmes have been seen as a valuable tool and an area where there are further opportunities for reducing economic leakage and shortening elements of some supply chains. 5.4 Risk Assessment Several CPP partners are at similar stages of starting climate adaptation and associated risk assessment processes. Stakeholders have indicated the potential value in working together on this as well as sharing existing information, and several have also emphasised the importance of factoring in economic assessments. Examples of risk and economic assessments and methodologies from Highland Adapts are included in the appendices. Commissioning a risk assessment for Argyll and Bute with emphasis on community wellbeing is proposed as the best fit with CPP outcomes, with the opportunity to do this from existing project resources. Natural or Green/blue infrastructure is a major consideration for Argyll and Bute, with nature based solutions such as natural flood risk management to complement hard engineering where appropriate as well as the carbon saving opportunities – and potential economic opportunities – associated. 35 Skills development and education is seen as one of the most important areas to address the trend to a declining and ageing population in Argyll and Bute as well as to strengthening the economy and community wellbeing. In the context of climate change, this is further important through the role of skills development in supporting a just transition to a lower carbon and more resilient economy. Skills development, including education, is presented separately to resilience and carbon literacy training on the basis that resilience and carbon literacy training are specific and well defined exercises as distinct to the much broader range of activity around skills development and education across Argyll and Bute. Page 73
Page 74
As the group of organisations and community representatives working together to achieve improvements across Argyll and Bute in ways which promote prevention, reduce inequalities and build community capacity, the CPP is strongly placed to work in multiple ways to develop overall resilience in the community in addition to measures more specific to climate change. There are also opportunities to integrate this with place planning in addition to developing and delivering resilience training at multiple levels across the region, such as the online climate resilience training currently being piloted by the Argyll & Bute Community Action Network. Carbon Literacy training is more well established and recognised and this in addition to enhancing individuals’ empowerment and agency with regard to climate change can also support employability. When presenting the set of proposed areas of action to the CPP Full Partnership for attendees to indicate their priorities, some respondents indicated “other”: subsequent discussion with these respondents indicated that this was from desired actions that cut across multiples of these areas of activity rather than fitting into any one category. 5.6 Crosscutting/Other 6. Monitoring, Reporting and Evaluation Because the Argyll & Bute Climate Change Strategy is not a statutory requirement, it cannot place reporting or other duties upon the CPP partners and the Climate Change Public Body Duty reporting requirements provide a means by which the partners’ climate activity can be monitored and reported. 36 The new Scottish National Adaptation Plan emphasises the need to support people and communities most vulnerable to climate impacts and building resilient, healthy, and equitable places, including rural, island and coastal communities. The Scottish Government defines resilience as “Communities and individuals harnessing resources and expertise to help themselves prepare for, respond to and recover from emergencies, in a way that complements the work of emergency responders”. 5.5 Resilience/Carbon Literacy Page 74
Page 75
Funding for Argyll & Bute Climate Action runs until October 2025 meaning that there is no dedicated resource for monitoring and reporting of the strategy as a whole after October 2025. Feedback from meetings with partners to date has been supportive of an approach based around existing Public Body Climate Duty reporting requirements, such that ongoing activity can be captured and new projects brought within the same framework wherever possible. This has the potential to offer a basic level of monitoring not only of the activity of public sector partners but also through the “Wider Influence” section where they in turn can have broader impact through partnership or client working. The Sustainable Scotland Network does a national level assessment of the Public Body Duty reports, typically made available in May-June after individual bodies’ reports are submitted at the end of the calendar year. At present there is no provision for regional- level assessment although this is a recognised issue. There may be some potential for Sniffer/Adaptation Scotland to provide some assistance with evaluation of the adaptation components of the strategy beyond the funded period but this would not replace the need for ongoing monitoring and reporting. This approach seeks to reduce extra reporting as much as possible there would still be resource implications associated. This would entail a requirement for the CPP to identify an individual and make time available (suggested two days) to review the partners’ published reports and SSN national assessment, and present this to the Climate Change Working Group autumn meeting. 37 For more information please contact: Andy Macpherson Climate Change Project Manager Argyll Countryside Trust andy@act-now.org.uk act-now.org.uk/cpp Page 75
Page 76
This page is intentionally left blank
Page 77
Executive Summary Climate change is one of the most serious threats that we face in Scotland. Rising temperatures, drier summers, wetter winters, sea level rise, and an increased risk of flooding, will all affect our lives. There is a global need to take action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions which are responsible, but changes in climate will not be completely eliminated by these actions. We also need to find ways of adapting to the effects of climate change. We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate. It has been developed through an engagement process managed by the Argyll Countryside Trust (ACT) on behalf of Argyll & Bute’s Community Planning Partnership, Climate Working Group, with funding thanks to Argyll and Bute Council, NHS Highland, NatureScot and Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface. A climate change strategy for Argyll & Bute Argyll & Bute Climate Action It links to Argyll & Bute’s Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024 – 2034 which focusses on improving the outcomes of Transport Infrastructure, Housing and Community Wellbeing. This is a strategy and action plan for Argyll & Bute. A region wide, community led, net-zero, climate change resilient, adaptation plan, in support of the vision that: Page 77
Page 78
The heavy rain in early October 2023 caused £15m damage to infrastructure (mainly roads and bridges) in parts of Argyll & Bute Now and into the future, we want a thriving Argyll & Bute where our collective choices and actions enhance our continued wellbeing in a changing climate. Our climate change strategy seeks to tackle climate change, by working together to be: Climate friendly: Reduce Argyll & Bute’s greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change (mitigation). Climate Ready: Resilient and adapted to unavoidable climate change (adaptation), and Climate Just: Ensure all of our communities are included. 80% of the population of Argyll & Bute lives within 1km of the coast (97% within 10km of coast), and we have over 200km of road within 25m of the sea (at high tide). Page 78
Page 79
Climate Risk Impact Warmer, wetter winters: Increased rainfall volume and intensity Increased landslides, flooded water courses and more surface water Hotter, drier summers: higher average and higher peak temperatures, increased heatwave frequency and longer drought periods higher risk of human and animal heat stress, illness and mortality, crop failure, wildfires and freshwater scarcity More severe, and more variable weather events: Less predictable but more frequent storms, increased variability in wind speed and direction, higher peak wind speeds, higher rainfall intensity windblow, forest damage, road blockage, power line damage/power cuts, property damage, flooding, landslides Sea level rise and storm surges: increased coastal erosion coastal infrastructure damage and loss, coastal retreat or protection cost Multi-hazards affecting people, species and habitats: Combination of hazards compounding climate risks and impacts. Single actions less likely to address mitigation or adaptation. Solutions needs to maximise multiple benefits and work with natural processes Increased climate unpredictability Climate forecasts less predictable, actions need to be based on worst-case scenarios, resilience more dependent on agile and diverse actions Our strategy identifies the key climate risks impacting on Argyll & Bute and the areas in which we can take action to address them: Page 79
Page 80
Areas for Action Infrastructure Addressing demand and impacts of better transport infrastructure to reduce reliance on private cars and provide for those who do not have a car; Enhancing communications and grid infrastructure through maximising decarbonisation and renewable energy opportunities; Natural capital: managing our green and blue infrastructure to reduce emissions and support resilience. Policy influence Influencing national and regional public and non-public policies through the CPP’s collective voice in a way that recognises Argyll & Bute's distinctive geography and population. Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain Promoting opportunities for climate mitigation, adaptation and community wealth building through improving circular economies within Argyll & Bute. Increasing opportunities for individuals to gain the skills required to deliver climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Risk Assessment Deepening our understanding of the risks and opportunities, including economic risks and opportunities, presented by climate change to Argyll and Bute as a whole and to specific communities and sectors. Resilience/Carbon Literacy Promoting carbon literacy and greater resilience, across all CPP sectors to empower individuals to bring about climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Crosscutting/Other Encourage individuals, communities and agencies to take multiple actions and to identify new risks and opportunities. With fuel poverty nearly 50% higher than the Scottish average, and higher again in more rural areas, and private water supplies ten times the national average, our housing is largely insufficient to cope with our current climate and even less with the greater weather extremes forecast. Areas for action closest to the CPP’s remit and ability to control or influence:Page 80
Page 81
The principles and approach guiding the Strategy are: An enabling strategy, rather than creating new duties or replacing existing ones, it identifies gaps and opportunities, especially those made possible by working together. Alignment with the CPP priorities of: Transport Infrastructure , Housing and Community Wellbeing, which in turn are aligned to requirements in our national climate programmes. Embracing diversity, to recognise significant variation among our communities, places and landscapes, and that we are being affected by climate change in multiple ways. Focussing on common challenges across the region, such as the length and vulnerability of transport links, and our low population density that can make it harder to secure funding. Adapting as we build our understanding of the risks and opportunities we face, taking into account local knowledge and also local variations and capacity to adapt. In addition to incremental steps to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and transitional steps to enhance our capacity to adapt, there is also a transformational component: as we improve our ability to cope with climate needs we also improve our current circumstances. An example of this sort of transformational change is the importance of developing our local economy through developing appropriate local skills, produce and markets and the housing, energy and other infrastructure to support them. This reduces our transport and waste emissions at the same time as reducing our dependence on vulnerable, extended transport links and enables us to add value locally and reduce economic leakage, at the same time as supporting transformational growth sectors such as energy and valuing our natural capital. Engaging communities through networks of community champions linked to Climate Hubs centred on the four Argyll & Bute administrative areas. Developing resilience by developing skills and capacity to adapt to ongoing change alongside longer term transformational capital projects. Ensuring a socially just transition to a climate ready future: as we prepare for the impacts of the changing climate we do so in ways that are fair and tackle inequality. For more information please contact Andy Macpherson Climate Change Project Manager Argyll Countryside Trust andy@act-now.org.uk act-now.org.uk/cpp Page 81
Page 82
This page is intentionally left blank
Page 83
Revised Version – February 2025 Argyll and Bute Climate Action Project Steering Group TERMS OF REFERENCE Purpose and Objectives Purpose This Steering Group has been formed to support, guide and monitor the A&B Climate Action Project Manager in delivering the outputs of the project’s Operational Plan As this project has been devised by Argyll and Bute’s Community Planning Partnership, representing a number of different organisations, there is no natural ‘home’ for the Project Manager, nor an established chain of support and command. This Steering Group, then, has been created in order to fill that void and become the body that the Project Manager will report to and seek advice and support from. Technically, and legally, the Project Manager is employed by Argyll Countryside Trust (ACT), but the Steering Group will provide support and oversight to their activities and direction. Objectives • Guide the Project Manager during the project. • Monitor progress of the Project Manager’s work. • Provide advice and support to the Project Manager. • Report on the project’s progress to the CPP Management Committee and other places as outlined in reporting, below. Governance This group reports, primarily via the Project Manager, to the CPP Management Committee, who form the de facto Project Board. The post is hosted by ACT (Argyll Countryside Trust) under a Memorandum of Understanding / Agreement with the CPP Management Committee. Day to day Line Management is provided by ACT Core Team, with financial reporting directly to the CPP. However, the actual activities of the Project Manager are overseen and supported by a Steering Group, comprising principally a subset from the CPP Climate Change Working Group (see Membership, below). Reporting and Accountability This group reports, primarily via the Project Manager, to the CPP Management Committee. Written and verbal reports will be tabled at the Management Committee quarterly, at the regular CPP Management Committee meetings. Reporting will also take place via the four Area Community Planning Groups’ quarterly meetings, with a view to updating on activity and to canvas/engage views on project activities. Page 83
Page 84
Revised Version – February 2025 Membership Membership is drawn from members of the Community Planning Partnership Climate Change Working Group, plus representation from other relevant bodies with requisite skills and interests on the Community Planning Partnership Management Committee, including funders. Prospective Chair and Vice Chair to be agreed by the group members, with a quorum of 8. Candidates proposed by any member, with chosen chair voted by majority. Chosen Prospective Chair to be confirmed by CPP Management Committee. Name Designation Rona Gold Argyll & Bute Council/Community Planning Partnership John McLuckie Argyll & Bute Council/Community Planning Partnership Sara MacLean CPP Climate Change Working Group (ACT – employing body) Angela Anderson CPP Climate Change Working Group (Plastic-free Helensburgh) Alison McGrory NHS Highland Takki Sulaiman Argyll & Bute TSI Tom Warren CPP Climate Change Working Group (Dunoon Community Council) Liz Pryor NatureScot Andy Macpherson Climate Change Project Manager, ACT Meetings • Meetings will be held at six weekly intervals but intervals may be greater where Climate Change Working Groups are taking place or there are major items on climate change at other CPP groups (Management Committee or Area CPGs). • In the early and closing stages of the Project Manager’s tenure it may be necessary to hold meetings more frequently. • Extraordinary (ad hoc) meetings can be held whenever it is felt that an issue arising cannot wait for a regular meeting. • Extraordinary (ad hoc) meetings can be called by any member of the Steering Group or the Project manager. • Project business, minutes and actions will be recorded by a nominated member of the Steering Group. • The agenda is set by the Chair, usually via the Project Manager, and members can ask for items to be added by emailing the Chair or Project Manager. This terms of reference were adopted on xxx. Review will take place annually. Page 84
Page 85
Page 1 of 9 Argyll and Bute Climate Action: A Climate Change Strategy for Argyll and Bute Climate Change Working Group 4 March and 9 April 2025. Discussion Document: Sample Action Plan The CPP Management Committee approved the draft climate change strategy at its meeting of 6 December 2024, with a set of priority Areas for Action identified, and the focus for the remainder of the funded period (to end October 2025) on developing the Action Plan. The priority Areas for Action are • Transport and Infrastructure • Policy Influence • Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain • Risk Assessment • Resilience/Carbon Literacy • Crosscutting/Other A sample Action Plan for discussion is provided below, in a format used by a range of current plans across the CPP. The actions in this are samples and are not offered as a complete set. They are drawn from • Examples from CPP partners’ existing climate plans and Climate Change Duty reports; • Examples from other CPP partners’ plans; • Suggestions made by Climate Change Working Group, and wider CPP members and stakeholders. It is proposed that the final action plan should comprise priority actions within the CPP’s scope to control or influence, with an appendix listing all known actions in the region. Request to the Climate Change Working Group Remembering that the CPP is “the group of organisations and community representatives working together to achieve improvements across Argyll and Bute in ways which promote prevention, reduce inequalities and build community capacity”, and the Climate Change Working Group’s remit to share expertise and knowledge to support the development and delivery of the Argyll and Bute Climate Action Strategy and Action Plan, CCWG members are asked to consider two questions in the World Café session on Tuesday 4 March: • What do you think are the three most important climate actions for the CPP? • Who should lead on those actions? Page 85
Page 86
Page 2 of 9 Area for Action: Transport and Infrastructure • Addressing demand and impacts of better transport infrastructure to reduce reliance on private cars and provide for those who do not have a car. • Enhancing communications and grid infrastructure through maximising decarbonisation and renewable energy opportunities. • Natural capital: managing our green and blue infrastructure to reduce emissions and support resilience What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale TI1 Grid constraints Identify areas with available grid capacity and prioritise projects in these locations. LHEES TI2 Grid constraints Identify the LHEES priority areas impacted by grid constraints. LHEES TI3 Grid constraints Develop plans and investment streams to resolve grid constraints in LHEES priority areas. LHEES TI4 Decarbonisation Pathways Consider how locally generated electricity that cannot be exported to the grid could be utilised. TT5 Decarbonisation Pathways Investigate decarbonisation pathways using emerging technologies or existing technologies in new ways TI6 Develop and Implement Waste Strategy Implementation of the Waste Strategy transitioning to Landfill ban compliant Residual Waste Recovery solutions by 2025. A&BC TI7 Promote the Waste Hierarchy through community Education Reduce amount of waste and improve recycling rates TI9 Heat Networks Evaluate the feasibility of the proposed heat networks described in the LHEES strategy. RSLs, LDP, LHEES TI20 Heat Networks Prioritise viable heat networks and support the implementation of the most viable ones. RSLs, LDP, LHEES TI21 Heat Networks Promote and facilitate the implementation of shared ground loop opportunities. RSLs, LDP, LHEES TI22 Nature Networks Address vulnerability and potential mitigation and adaptation opportunities with Argyll’s natural heritage Page 86
Page 87
Page 3 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale TI23 Rainforest restoration Work with landowners, land managers and communities to protect and restore rainforest at landscape scale ACT/ASR TI24 Peatland restoration Work with landowners, land managers and communities to protect and restore peatlands at landscape scale ACT/NS TI26 Develop natural infrastructure pilots Eg options for land management to reduce flood/landscape risk to vulnerable settlements and infrastructure TI27 Work in partnership with land owners and land managers to manage urban drainage proactively Local flooding caused by debris from land management activities blocking drainage Area for action: Policy Influence Influencing national and regional public and non-public policies through the CPP’s collective voice in a way that recognises Argyll & Bute's distinctive geography and population. What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale PI1 Liaise with Scottish Government on rural policy considerations Fit of national policies with Argyll and Bute geography, economy and demography CPP PI2 Liaise with central government over telecoms resilience: Digital switchover Widespread community concerns over resilience of replacement to copper landlines CPP/C& BC PI3 Liaise with service providers over telecoms resilience: Example of ensuring backup generators and fuel where necessary for telecoms masts PI4 Grid Capacity Current lack of grid capacity seen as barrier to renewables and decarbonisation across Argyll PI5 Community Benefit/Shared Ownership of Renewables Development of revenue streams to support local empowerment and regeneration through circular economy PI6 Community Benefit/Shared Examples from Norway of shared ownership of fish farms, often run by parent Page 87
Page 88
Page 4 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale Ownership of local industry companies to those operating in Argyll P17 Just Transition Identify suitable decarbonisation approaches for remote rural and island communities. P18 Just Transition Maximise funding and investment in remote rural and island decarbonisation projects. Economic Develop ment, LHEES, SG P19 Explore potential for forest crofts To help address trends of depopulation and ageing population. Area for action: Skills, Procurement and Supply Chain Increasing opportunities for individuals to gain the skills required to deliver climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Promoting opportunities for climate mitigation, adaptation and community wealth building through improving circular economies within Argyll & Bute. These were originally two separate items, Skills Development and Procurement & Supply Chain, but they have been merged here in line with the conventions across a range of CPP and wider partners. What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale SPSC1 Identify groups best place to lead on skills development Establish clarity among large number of stakeholders Employability/Skills Development Partnership, SDS SPSC2 Climate Education Pathways Address training and qualification gaps to enable young people to live and work in green sector in Argyll A&BC, ACT/ABCAN SPSC3 Skills and Supply Chain Support the development of the supply chain while also identifying skills required for energy efficiency and heat decarbonisation. SPSC4 Food & Drink - Compile a list of all courses offered by colleges and survey businesses to ensure offer matches needs SDS Page 88
Page 89
Page 5 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale SPSC5 Food & Drink Ensure the needs of the industry are recognised in the Regional Skills Investment Plan - engage with sector to identify skills gaps SDS SPSC6 Audit of skill greening opportunities Establish potential for green skills training to enhance employability and skills available to complement mainstream skills SPSC7 Rainforest squad Empower forestry trainees with transferable skills ACT SPSC8 Identify community wealth building opportunities in public procurement Support transformation of local economy to more circular and less extractive; enhance opportunities to create and add value locally; Community Wealth Building working group SPSC9 Identify opportunities to reduce transport mileage associated with procurement Reduce road miles through developing local supply and value chains, enhancing resilience, reducing emissions SPSC10 Bring low carbon food into public procurement Opportunities to build upon initiatives such as introducing local venison to school meals CPP Procurement Leads SPSC11 Develop capacity to support local markets Community venison larder SPSC12 Develop comprehensive GIS map of food and drink supply chain map of Argyll and Bute. This should include identifying by products and potentially valuable waste streams SPSC13 Increase the proportion of locally produced F&D used by the Public Sector Including ABC & HSCP by establishing gross requirements, educating providers, and using dynamic purchasing CPP Procurement leads SPSC14 Identify and share examples of good practice around Including utilisation of waste materials as feed stock for other processes A&BC Page 89
Page 90
Page 6 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale management of food waste SPSC15 Support delivery of the Argyll and Bute Growing Strategy Greater local and community involvement in food production ACT, A&BC SPSC16 Reduce Council use of disposable and single use plastics across all departments and settings Reduce plastic entering waste stream Procurement and Commercial Services, all Council Services SPSC17 Extend and explore pre-ordering for school food to reduce food waste Reduce waste, financial savings Procurement and Commercial Services, all Council Services Area for action: Risk Assessment Deepening our understanding of the risks and opportunities, including economic risks and opportunities, presented by climate change to Argyll and Bute as a whole and to specific communities and sectors. What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale RA1 Scope UK Climate Change Risk Assessment at Argyll level Review of overarching risk at Argyll scale CPP Climate Manager Mar 2025 RA2 Review CPP partner risk assessments where available Make use of existing resource of risk assessments across all partners CPP Climate Manager, CPP partner bodies June 2025 RA3 Community - oriented risk assessment for Argyll & Bute: Support communities developing resilience plans Risk assessment with emphasis on community wellbeing: OLI Area pilot CPP Climate Manager Sep 2025 RA4 Community - oriented risk assessment for Argyll & Bute: Workshops to bring local Importance not only of local knowledge and experience but also extend ownership of CPP Climate Manager Sep 2025 Page 90
Page 91
Page 7 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale knowledge and experience into risk assessments risk assessment and resultant plans Area for action: Resilience/Carbon Literacy Promoting carbon literacy and greater resilience, across all CPP sectors to empower individuals to bring about climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive, informed and just way. What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale RCL1 Promote carbon literacy and greater resilience, across all CPP sectors Empower individuals to bring about climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. ACT, A&BC Sep 2025 RCL2 Collaborate with A&BC Resilience on resilience training and messaging Clear and consistent messaging and training ACT June 2025 RCL3 Ensure all communities have up to date emergency/resilien ce plans Major area for CPP influence and agency A&BC RCL4 Establish ACPG sub group to drive resilience action at Area level Maximise available resource to coordinate training and make use of local knowledge, experience and networks OLI ACPG working group Sep 2025 RCL5 Develop register of resilience resources Asset mapping including identifying gaps in provision Resilience working group Sep 2025 RCL6 Identify collective procurement options for vital qualifications and insurance for resilience workers Examples of first aid. chainsaw training, certification and PLI for community members engaged in resilience response RCL7 Engage with CPP partners on critical local infrastructure Example of ensuring backup generators and fuel where necessary for pumped water supply RCL8 Deliver/support delivery of Carbon Literacy training among communities Support informed choices on low carbon and climate readiness ACT RCL9 Sustainable energy resilient communities Enhance community resilience by encouraging communities to CPP Page 91
Page 92
Page 8 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale formulate localised “place-based” energy decarbonisation plans. RCL10 Sustainable energy resilient communities Explore mechanisms enabling communities to maximise energy generation benefits in their area. I.e. promote Community wealth building LHEES, Economic Development RCL11 Fuel poverty Prioritise installing heat networks or heat pumps in homes that use direct electric heating. RSLs, Landlords, Homeowners RCL12 Fuel poverty Focus on homes where poor energy efficiency contributes to fuel poverty. ABS Child Poverty Forum LHEES RCL13 Energy Efficiency Measures Engage with private sector building owners and tenants to encourage greater adoption of energy efficiency initiatives ABS RCL14 Energy Efficiency Measures Signposting to enable building owners to identify potential resources to fund energy efficiency works. SG ABC EST HES RCL15 Energy Efficiency Measures in Mixed Tenure Properties Engage with stakeholders in mixed tenure properties to implement energy efficient measures for the entire building. Housing, RSLs RCL16 The community knows it needs to decarbonise Enhance the community's knowledge and consciousness of the necessity to decarbonise. CPP, third sector RCL17 Business decarbonisation requirements Increase engagement with the business community to raise awareness of energy efficiency and heat decarbonisation requirements. BG, A&BS Business Support Area for Action: Crosscutting/Other Encourage individuals, communities and agencies to take multiple actions and to identify new risks and opportunities. What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale CC1 Argyll & Bute Climate Action - develop overarching climate strategy To establish overall trends and priorities for action within the CPP’s agency to CPP Climate Change Manager Oct 2025 Page 92
Page 93
Page 9 of 9 What Why Who When Code Action Description Lead Timescale and action plan for Argyll control or influence CC2 Identify pilot projects and funding opportunities in support of climate action To inform climate action appropriate to Argyll’s geography, economy and demographic CPP Climate Change Manager Oct 2025 CC3 Develop Net Zero Route Map Develop a Net Zero Route Map in support of updating and revising the Decarbonisation Plan A&BC Page 93
Page 94
This page is intentionally left blank
Page 95
Classification: OFFICIAL Management Committee Date: 16 April 2025 Title: Community Justice Partnership update 1.0 Purpose The purpose of this report is to update the Community Planning Partnership on the progress of activities relating to community justice statutory duties. 2.0 Recommendations The CPP Management Committee are asked to: • Note the statutory requirements and related progress • Note the final version of Argyll & Bute Community Justice Plan 2024-2027 will be scheduled for the June 2025 of the CPP • Support the Community Justice Partnership with alignment to CPP Priority Outcomes 3.0 Background 3.1 The Scottish Government introduced the Community Justice (Scotland) Act 2016 which places a statutory duty on a range of local and national bodies to improve outcomes for people within, or on the edges of the justice system with a focus on reducing/eliminating reoffending. They are: Argyll & Bute Council Argyll & Bute Health & Social Care Partnership Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Police Scotland L Division Highland Health Board Skills Development Scotland Scottish Courts and Tribunal Service (SCTS) Scottish Ministers, represented locally by: Scottish Prison Service & Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) Argyll & Bute Community Justice Partnership is chaired by the Council’s Chief Executive and has representation at a local level from all the above, apart from SCTS and COPFS. The latter has established regional forums with local representatives from Community Justice, Police Scotland and Justice Social Work. SCTS enhanced community justice engagement at a local level is being progressed nationally, however, operational engagement with relevant local partners continues through the core business model of the engagement with the courts. Page 95 Agenda Item 8
Page 96
Classification: OFFICIAL 3.2 The National Strategy for Community Justice (2022) provides the following definition: Community justice is principally about organisations working together to ensure that people who have offended address the underlying causes of their behaviour and pay back to the community where appropriate. It aims to encourage rehabilitation, reduce reoffending, and protect the public, leading to fewer victims and safer communities. This requires a strong partnership working approach at each point of the justice system, from the point of arrest, through to integration into the community. Public protection remains our first priority, with robust risk management systems in place to ensure that, where appropriate, those who have committed offences can be managed safely and effectively in the community. In the long term, our ambition is to use prison only for those who pose a risk of serious harm. 3.3 This Scottish Government diagram below is the national planning context for community justice. 3.4 Community justice incorporates a wide range of services and policy areas, it’s a multi- agency systems planning and improvement framework that requires involvement of those expansive workforces, the people in services, victims and wider communities of interest. It is a complex landscape that involves focusing on people who are more likely to have a history involving multiple adverse childhood experiences and severe multiple disadvantages throughout their lives. Argyll & Bute Community Justice Partnership is committed to understanding what local evidence tells us, what do we do well and where do we need to improve. Engagement with people in the justice system is critical to this and will therefore be a high priority for improvement across Argyll & Bute from 2025-2027. Page 96
Page 97
Classification: OFFICIAL 4.0 Detail 4.1 Community Justice Statutory Duties are summarised by the Care Inspectorate’s CJ self-evaluation guide: Community Justice self-evaluation guide.pdf (careinspectorate.com) Core assurances: 1. Legal compliance 2. Leadership, engagement and partnership planning 3. Recruitment and staffing 4. Public Protection 5. Learning and development 6. Continuous Improvement The Care Inspectorate’s approach to scrutiny, assurance and improvement is informed by the European Framework for Quality Management (EFQM) model. The 2019 EFQM model incorporates three core tenets related to Direction, Execution, and Results. This form is structured around those three tenets: • Direction – the extent to which partners share a vision and strategy for community justice, and demonstrate effective leadership and direction. • Execution – the extent to which strategy is implemented through delivery of key processes. • Results – the extent to which partners are able to demonstrate improved outcomes. 4.2 Argyll & Bute Community Justice Partnership will focus on Core Assurance 1, 2 and 4, with a completion date of September 2025. The remainder will be scheduled in for completion by September 2026. This activity will inform the development of the new local Community Justice Plan post April 2027. 4.3 The geographically diverse landscape of Argyll & Bute requires a multi-faceted approach that takes cognisance of small community resources and needs. This is why the Community Justice Partnership will look to develop a place-based approach for strategic planning and improvement delivery. Enhanced and pragmatic partnership working will create an improved understanding of the requirements to develop and implement opportunities for change to reduce offending. We will also highlight what requires national action to deliver local improvements. 4.5 The diagram below provides the contextual framework, in relation to addressing complex needs within community justice, identifying the Community Justice Pathways where improvements are targeted: Page 97
Page 98
Classification: OFFICIAL 4.4 The Community Justice Partnership will also consider as part of its strategic improvement activity, how to strengthen the alignment to the CPP ABOIP Outcomes: ➢ Outcome 1: Transport Infrastructure ➢ Outcome 2: Housing ➢ Outcome 3: Community Wellbeing 5.0 Conclusions 5.1 The consultation version of our local Community Justice Plan 2024-2027 will be available online by the end of April 2025, a final version will be submitted to next CPP meeting. There are statutory reporting expectations that Community Planning Partnerships are informed and engaged with the strategic planning element of community justice. 5.2 The Community Justice Partnership seek the commitment and support of the Community Planning Partnership to establish and develop this, building on existing structures, knowledge and expertise. Page 98
Page 99
Classification: OFFICIAL 6.0 Implications Strategic Implications Activity required to strengthen. Included in CJ Plan 2024- 2027 Consultations, Previous considerations Consultation has taken place as part of scoping activity in relation to development of the draft version of the plan Resources Community justice improvements are reliant on existing services, therefore any existing pressures will impact on ability to deliver Prevention Community Justice is a preventative framework to reduce offending. Equalities Equalities & Island Assessments in progress For more information, contact Mary Holt, Community Justice Coordinator Mary.Holt@argyll-bute.gov.uk References Appendices Argyll & Bute Community Justice Annual Report 2023-2024 (for background information) Page 99
Page 100
This page is intentionally left blank
Page 101
Community Justice Outcome Activity Across Scotland Local Area Annual Return Template April 2024 Community Justice Scotland Ceartas Coimhearsnachd Alba Community Justice Outcome Activity Across Scotland Local Area Annual Return Template Reporting year April 2023 – March 2024 Page 101
Page 102
1. Background This reporting template has been developed in discussion with community justice representatives from local areas. This template is designed to enable local areas to report on progress towards the community justice outcomes. 2. Statement of Assurance and Data Usage The information submitted to CJS using this template will be used by CJS in its role to monitor, promote and support improvement in, and keep the Scottish Ministers informed about, performance in the provision of community justice. In line with provisions in the Data Protection Act 2018 and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), CJS will use appropriate data to ensure that there is continuous reporting, development and progress towards the national outcomes. By providing data to CJS you are consenting to its use by CJS as indicated. Community Justice Partnerships should be aware that any information held by CJS is subject to statutory Freedom of Information obligations. Completion of the template can help local partnerships to fulfil their requirements under s23 (1b) of the Act by using the developed content to inform the production of the publicly facing summary statement of annual progress. 3. General principles of the template The template and guidance have been developed using the following principles: • Support CJS in developing the evidence base for local community justice activity and progress across Scotland within the reporting year • Support CJS to comply with their duties set out in the Act, Sections 26-30 • Support local partners to comply with their local reporting requirements set out in section 23 of the Act. Page 102
Page 103
4. How to fill in the template The return should be completed and consulted on with partners involved in community justice in your local area. In line with the Act this includes statutory partners, third sector bodies involved in community justice in relation to the area, and such community bodies other persons as partners consider appropriate. CJS expects that completion of this template will be a collaborative effort. This template incorporates guidance to support completion, with the text (in blue) providing reflective prompts to consider when developing your answer, which can be deleted and replaced with your response. These should be considered together through the development of your answer rather than addressed individually. There is no expectation that areas will return substantial numerical data. It is likely that local areas will not have the national data indicators set out by the Community Justice Performance Framework at the time they are completing this template. It is not anticipated that CJS will routinely use or refer to local level national indicator data in the context of the national outcome activity annual report. If in developing the national report it becomes apparent that local-level data may support further analysis of particular outcomes, for example in identifying potential recommendations, exploring data outliers, or areas for further development, we expect this to be taken forward in discussion with the relevant local areas and partners. Instead, we want partners to focus on the qualitative evidence drawn from their activity and insights about impact. Relevant local supporting evidence from the CJS improvement tool that will supplement the national indicator data has been specified under each national outcome in this template. We would encourage partners to develop the response to this template in conversation with each other and view it as an opportunity to reflect on your strengths and needs in partnership. Where the template asks for evidence, a written response will suffice and there is no expectation that you send additional supporting documentation – if there are any aspects CJS is unclear on, it will be our responsibility to request clarification where necessary. If any response or evidence requires details about people with lived experience (e.g. evidence in respect of someone’s life story) please DO NOT include any identifiable personal or sensitive information (as outlined in Schedules 2 & 3 of the Data Protection Act 1998) as CJS does not require such information. If this is unavoidable then please ensure that the data is fully anonymised. If you have any queries about completing the template, then please email CJSImprovement@communityjustice.scot. Page 103
Page 104
1. Community Justice Partnership / Group Details Name of local authority area/s Argyll & Bute Name and contact details of the partnership Chair Name: Pippa Milne Email: pippa.milne@argyll-bute.gov.uk Telephone: 01546 604350 Contact for queries about this report Name: Mary Holt Email: mary.holt@argyll-bute.gov.uk Telephone: 07733101313 2. Template Sign-off from Community Justice Partnership / Group Chair Enter the name of the chair to confirm that the local community justice partnership representatives have agreed this return as an accurate record. It should be returned to CJS by 27 September 2024. For the purpose of submitting this return to CJS ensure you have agreement from community justice partners. For the purpose of publishing this template as part of your s23 duty (publish a public- facing annual report on progress towards national and local outcomes) you should follow local governance arrangements. Date: 16th October 2024 Name: Pippa Milne Page 104
Page 105
3. Governance Arrangements Last year, we asked partnerships to describe their governance structure for community justice arrangements and include links to wider community planning. Please describe any substantive changes since your previous answer. There are no substantive changes. However, Argyll and Bute CJP are reviewing how we continue to strengthen cross policy governance arrangements. 4. The year overall This section should be used to reflect some of the a) challenges/negative implications and b) opportunities/positive implications from the reporting year on the community justice partnership. This can include impact on the improvement activity, partner collaboration, and delivery of services. Challenges / Negatives Describe some of the negative impact(s) and/or challenge(s) your community justice partners/hip faced in the reporting year. You may include how the partnership responded to these. The summary of the activities below are presented in line with our Community Justice Pathways Leadership and Strategic Planning Pathway Argyll & Bute Community Justice Partnership has undertaken a range of activities during 2023- 2024 to develop our local model for community justice. Increasing strategic planning and operational scoping activity by employing a full-time Community Justice Coordinator (previously part-time) who has worked across the multi-disciplinary services, baselining against the four national Aims including: ➢ Scoping and creating local baselines against the national aims, priority actions and outcomes ➢ Identifying any potential capacity for improvements ➢ Supporting with scoping implementation of improvements (for people leaving prison) ➢ Consulting with a range of third sector services ➢ Monitoring changes in national policy, legislation, guidance and communications ➢ Developing an improved understanding of aligned strategic priorities with Violence Against Women, Alcohol and Drugs and Children, Families and Justice and Health and Social Care Partnership, Chief Officers Group Public Protection and Clinical and Care Governance ➢ Developing an improved understanding of the defined Argyll & Bute Community Justice Pathways and what a community justice place-based approach may look like Always a challenge is the geographical spread of Argyll & Bute, the availability of and equity of access to statutory and third sector services and support, particularly in remote and island communities. Page 105
Page 106
Staff recruitment and retention across A&B is also a long-standing area of challenge for CJP membership. The pressures across public and third sector post lockdown are at times critical, with tight finance and resources operating within a savings environment due to reducing/flat lined budgets. Developing our local community justice plan across an ever-changing complex strategic planning landscape has been a particular challenge for 2023-2024. The following areas were identified as risks/challenges to delivery of improvements: ➢ Restrictions in national and local funding ➢ Difficulties in recruiting, particularly in remote and island areas ➢ A crisis in the availability of housing ➢ Changes in legislation and statutory guidance ➢ Changes in social work (justice) dictated by the Home Office. Eg. ViSOR ➢ The impact of policy initiatives, for example, early release from prisons ➢ Ongoing Cost-of-Living crisis ➢ Uncertainty caused by the development of the National Care Service ➢ Changes in judicial practice and processing These critical elements that are aligned to improving community justice outcomes provide multi-faced challenges, these will be considered as part of developing our CJ Strategic Needs and Strengths Assessment. During 2023-2024 a range of key local plans were being refreshed including Community Planning Partnership Local Outcome Improvement Plan, Alcohol and Drugs Partnership strategy refresh and the Corporate Parenting Plan. The activity to refresh the Health & Social Care Strategic Plan also started towards the latter end of 2023-2024, beginning with the update of the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment. Whilst improving community justice outcomes are reliant on a collaborative partnership approach, creating meaningful criminal justice partner baselines with an improved understanding of needs of the population with justice, is key. We need to understand the scope and detail of local strategic needs and strengths assessments with finite resources is a continuing challenge. Whilst Community Justice Scotland Targeted Resources templates are exceptionally comprehensive and helpful, they are extensive. An area of challenge for the CJP is how we develop a meaningful CJ SNSA that’s place-based and is underpinned by key elements across these 9 separate Targeted Resources. Page 106
Page 107
Point of Arrest During 2023-2024, Police Scotland were engaged with the Information Commissioner around the processes and consent for Arrest Referral, only in July 2024 was the refreshed national approach launched. In the meantime, locally Community Justice Coordinator, ADP Coordinator, Third Sector Addictions Manager and Police Scotland L Division Inspector explored opportunities to review current arrest referral numbers and consider interim activity we could pursue. Nationally, the Community Justice Coordinator and Police Scotland Inspector engaged with Police Scotland Custody Suite leads, a team of less than 5 covering the whole of Scotland. Some areas of clarity were provided: ➢ Argyll & Bute citizens are held in custody suites mainly out with the local area therefore the need to develop a strategic needs and strengths assessment that clearly reflects these unique elements ➢ As a guide, some information was shared verbally, which showed that addiction accounted for only 10% of identified presenting vulnerabilities with Police Custody ➢ Information relating to With You (formerly We Are With You) was absent from Argyll & Bute based Custody Suites, identified following local meeting with the Custody Sergeant arranged by L Division Inspector The finite national resources contribute to the challenges with baselining this Community Justice Pathway, we have requested the following information, our Police Scotland national Custody Suite colleagues have acknowledged our request and are working on it during 2024- 2025. ➢ The numbers and location of arrest and custody suite (if held) ➢ The breakdown of presenting issues recorded ➢ Person profile (Age, Gender, etc) We hope this, and other key data and information, can be provided and analysed as part of the development of our CJ SNSA during 2024-2025. The Community Justice Partnership recognises the inclusion of national activity within the Scottish Government Community Justice Delivery Plan, how that translates at a local level remains a challenge. Argyll & Bute does not have high levels of crime, our discussions on the key statistical information (out with the national CJ Performance Framework), as part of developing a section related to Crime within HSCP JSNA provided clarity for the CJP. We need to focus on developing the related community justice narrative within the Strategic Plan, the baseline of the HSCP JSNA available by September 2024. Argyll & Bute Community Justice Partnership will prioritise this element of the CJ SNSA to ensure that, when published on 1st April 2025, alignments are embedded. Page 107
Page 108
Through Prosecution (incorporated into Community Sentences from 2024) In developing our Community Justice Pathways we have incorporated our previous Through Prosecution Pathway within our Community Sentence Pathway as the priority focus is around the delivery of Justice Social Work Diversion. During 2023-2024, the Community Justice Coordinator continued to attend the COPFS Community Justice Forum (North Strathclyde). A new chair provided a refreshed approach, enhancing and improving the membership and content/context of discussions. As with previous years annual reports, how this forum informs at a local level is yet unclear. Argyll & Bute welcome the acknowledgement from the Chair of this Forum that COPFS and Scottish Courts and Tribunal Service are not unaffected by the geographical challenges. Challenges remain, as reported last year, in relation to information sharing arrangement for ‘Bail Opposed’ between COPFS and JSW. During 2023-2024, a local SNSA (utilising CJS former template) was completed as far as possible, COPFS responded to a request for information to complete the template advising this will be passed to an internal group, working towards the national Diversion Action Plan through SG Strategic Group. At Court Pathway As reported last year, Justice Social Work and delivery of court-based services is again impacted by the geographical spread in relation to having a physical presence within the wide range of courts that our citizens appear in, including in West Dunbartonshire, Inverclyde and Renfrewshire. It is impossible to deliver an ever-present onsite court-based service across Argyll & Bute, however, there is a slightly increased presence of Justice Social Work throughout 2023-2024. Argyll & Bute Courts are not full-time, custodies will only appear if the Court is scheduled to sit, otherwise they are heard at courts in different local authorities. There is an issue around the time of day that people who are due to appear arrive at Argyll Courts, which often is in later afternoon. This presents challenge for Bail assessments to be undertaken and, dependant on the outcome, how people will get back home. Whilst the Community Justice Partnership can be assured of being well informed by Justice Social Work reporting on their court-based business, there is a gap in knowledge around those negotiating the courts who are not involved with Justice Social Work. This will be an area of priority focus in our developing CJ SNSA and creating an improved understanding of the services operating across our courts, example would be third sector Addictions. Linked to this is the request from Community Justice Scotland to enhance the service data within their Judicial Hub project, the diverse nature of a geography that is populated by a wide range of third sector and other small community-based organisations. One of our challenges from 2024 is how we create a comprehensive service mapping exercise across Argyll & Bute and consult regarding the requirements to keep the Judicial Database updated following upload to enhanced information. In reality, this work is likely to span across 2024-2026. Page 108
Page 109
We have been unable to ascertain the numbers associated with the court backlogs, this is unhelpful during a time when Justice Social Work funding formula and Performance Management are being scrutinised nationally by Scottish Government and the Care Inspectorate. There continues to be a gap in SCTS representation on the CJP, we hope by involving local courts in the development of our CJ SNSA, those alignments will become clearer and representative appointed. We note this is a national issue and welcome any updates from Community Justice Scotland Community Sentences Pathway: The areas of risk, noted on page 6, were identified through detailed discussions on the pressures on Justice Social Work in the scoping of national Aim improvements for our CJ Plan. The national issues with LSCMI means that only now are we able to consider what data and information contained contributes to our developing CJ SNSA, this is however reliant on the quality of the reporting tools. As is evident from the CJ National Indicator information, the demands on Justice Social Work are ever increasing, the Community Justice Partnership will continue to monitor with quarterly updates from the appropriate representatives. Custody to Community Pathway During 2023-2024, the Community Justice Partnership (led by HSCP Children, Families and Justice representatives), commissioned a pilot service to provide support to people with liberation planning and return to community. This excluded people subject to Justice Social Work Statutory Throughcare, just those eligible for Voluntary Throughcare. From signing of the contract, recruitment and implementation preparation took place between October 2023 and March 2024, unforeseen delays related to PVG process extended this start up period. First referrals and prison visits began towards the end of March 2024. Lomond and Argyll Advocacy Service were directly commissioned to deliver a Community Justice Advocacy service that explored a human rights-based approach to pre-liberation and return to community model planning. This rights-based model was first introduced to Argyll & Bute via our ADP, who commissioned LAAS to deliver a Recovery Advocacy Project, linked to the delivery of the Medically Assisted Treatment Standards. At the time of writing this annual report (August 2024) the Community Justice Partnership are reviewing the first quarterly report for the project. For 2023-2024, the challenges with delays in recruitment were the main issue. Some structural, process and communication challenges have developed during 2024-2025, these will be contained in our next annual report. Another challenge was understanding how the national approach to recommissioning Voluntary Throughcare services will translate for Argyll & Bute. Historically, the exceptionally low engagement numbers for Argyll & Bute are evidence of a postcode lottery, due to the geographically diverse landscape providers stated they were unable to support people back to all areas. We continue to have concerns and look forward to engaging with the new national providers during 2024-2025 to ascertain how they will support us to delivery community justice improvements through development of bespoke pathways. Page 109
Page 110
Community Justice/Youth Justice Our intention to review the interface between youth and community justice continued during 2023-2024, however, we were unable to establish the CJP multi-agency Youth Justice Sub- Group due to capacity and resource challenges. There are overlaps with Children’s Services/Strategic Forums and the range of legislative and policy changes also contributed to the challenges. Argyll & Bute Youth Justice approach is under development and will be considered as part of our developing SNSA. Strengthening CJP understanding and engagement with Planet Youth activity will also be considered. Community Justice/Violence Against Women & Girls/Equally Safe Over the last few years, Argyll & Bute CJP have been focusing on how we streamline and enhance our strategic planning and local delivery, particularly in relation to the national Equally Safe Standard Priority 4 ‘Men desist from all forms of violence against women and girls and perpetrators of such violence receive a robust and effective response.’ During 2023-2024, the 2022-2023 jointly commissioned research with the VAWP, was submitted. Highlight reports were submitted to the HSCP Strategic Leadership Team and the Chief Officers Group for Public Protection. Initial responses were collated from Women’s Aid and Rape Crisis, internally we applied theme structures across the recommendations. The challenges with this remain how we meaningfully collaborate across policy areas and governance groups locally on identifying what improvements we can implement and what requires national action. The research, by Dr Anni Donaldson, was informed through interviewing women with lived experience of domestic abuse and multi-agency staff groups, it is rich with experiential evidence from a place-based perspective. Community Justice Coordinator and Violence Against Women Partnership Chair continued work closely to align the shared policy priorities, work began on the refresh of the Equally Safe Plan for Argyll & Bute, due for publication 2024-2025. Community Justice/Alcohol and Drug Partnership On behalf of the Community Justice Partnership, the Community Justice Coordinator continued to work closely with ADP Coordinator, Chair and Third Sector Addictions Manager to align, rationalise and improve our understanding of joint priorities. This expanded across a number of ADP sub-groups including; Residential Rehab and Drug Death Reviews Moving into 2024-2025, this has expanded to the RADAR and MAT Standards Sub-Groups and ADP Strategy Steering Group. The ADP will be developing their refreshed SNSA and local Strategy during 2024-2025, the CJP are committed to collaborating to address challenges of duplication and streamline shared priorities by creating an improved understanding the inextricable links between addiction and justice. Positives / Opportunities Describe some of the positive impact(s) / opportunity(ies) your community justice partners/hip faced in the reporting year. You may include how the partners responded to these. Page 110
Page 111
Leadership and Strategic Planning Pathway The activity around strategic and operational scoping is continually enhancing collective CJP knowledge, understanding and insight of strategic and operational delivery requirements. This was an opportunity to develop our Community Justice Pathways and baseline what they currently look like. Increasing opportunities to engage with local third sector providers has significantly contributed to this. What became particularly clear is how critical third sector involvement in planning processes is – their connections with people within the justice system, their knowledge of individual’s life circumstances, etc. Third sector operate across a range of local planning forums and case conference meetings, etc within Argyll & Bute, including with Justice Social Work, Addictions, Housing, etc. However, further considerations are required by the CJP on how we strengthen those arrangements for people involved in the justice system out with statutory services, but accessing third sector and wider community services. Our plans to take forward service mapping activity will contribute to this. At each of our CJP meetings during 2023-2024 we reviewed progress of the development of our local plan, in the context of newly available local and national information, and each time adjusted approaches to Community Justice Pathway improvement planning. Point of Arrest Whilst progress was delayed due to national issues around information sharing, the initial discussions were an opportunity to connect with the national team within Police Scotland Team responsible for custody suites. This provided an insight, whilst limited, to some of the local challenges for Police Scotland. Through Prosecution (incorporated into Community Sentences from 2024) As noted by Justice Social Work, under Priority Action 1 below, an internal audit process was established, following publication of the national Thematic Review of Diversion, which has shown successful results. The embedding of Justice Outcome Star and subsequent reporting will enhance the CJP understanding of needs and challenges of those completing Diversion. The change of Chair and different approach for the North Strathclyde COPFS forum brought an opportunity for increased collaboration with enhanced group membership and information sharing. Although, at the time of writing this report, a new chair was being appointed. At Court As noted below by Justice Social Work (Priority Action 5), the appointment of two new sheriffs in local courts led to open dialogue from Justice Social Work so that there is a shared understanding of the services offered as part of community sentences. The gap in knowledge that exists for those not involved with Justice Social Work is an opportunity for the CJP to improve their understanding and gaining third sector knowledge and experience are critical in that. The gap in relationship between the CJP and Victim Support operating within the courts and Women’s Aid & Rape Crisis knowledge and understanding of the impact of court processes on victims will also be considered. Page 111
Page 112
The request from CJS to increase the organisations within the Community Interventions and Support Directory is also viewed as an opportunity for 2024-2026. Community Sentences Pathway As noted below by Justice Social Work (Priority Action 5) there are a range of opportunities being explored and implemented including workforce development and dialogue with the judiciary. As part of the progression of our local CJ SNSA activity planned from 2024 and reporting requirements into the CJP, there’s an opportunity to develop an enhanced multi-agency understanding of the population served by Justice Social Work. This will also create an improved understanding of those who are not to establish how the CJP can develop an approach to population within the justice system. Custody to Community Pathway There have been a range of opportunities, which began with the establishment of the ISA between SPS and Council’s providing weekly liberation and remand information. Community Justice data collection is supported by Justice Social Admin support, who record available information on whether they are statutory throughcare or being released with a Community Payback Order, etc. They also record whether the person has been previously known to Justice Social Work and why – this allows for soft insights into reoffending at an individual level. Housing forward the remand lists which are distributed to Justice Social Work reps when case is open. The relatively small numbers leaving custodial back to Argyll & Bute, this is a manageable internal task carried out for the CJP. Argyll & Bute now have data and information from May 2020 and this will contribute to the development of the CJ SNSA from 2024-2025. There are a range of enhanced information collection activities underway, to align addictions and mental health data to the current spreadsheet. This began in 2024/2025. The commissioning of Lomond & Argyll Advocacy Service to deliver a rights-based voluntary throughcare service (partly funded by JSW and attributable to 2024-2025 JSW statistics) is a significant opportunity. As noted above, operational from April 2024, with both postholders recruited having lived experience of the justice system so have solid knowledge of the challenges. As the project has developed, the realisation from that delivering equity of access to services across the complex landscape of Argyll & Bute is not straightforward. One of the key highlights was the engagement and support for the project within our lead prison HMP Greenock, who continue to play a key role in high take up rates. They supported the Community Justice Coordinator and facilitated a multi-agency meeting with A&B reps from Addictions (statutory and third sector), Housing, Justice Social Work alongside the LAAS CJ Advocacy Service reps. The learning from this project will inform opportunities during 2024-2025, which might present as challenges initially. Of the 16 liberated by the end of July 2024, 14 provided explicit consent (via HMP Greenock and Low Moss Link Centres) to be referred to LAAS CJ Advocacy Service. With the new nationally commissioned voluntary throughcare service due to begin April 2025, the CJP will have a focus on how that service will assist the CJP to deliver on improvements. Page 112
Page 113
Community Justice/Youth Justice- Violence Against Women & Girls/Equally Safe-Alcohol & Drugs Partnership, etc. The opportunities to work together to improve our understanding across local policy areas is critical activity in preparation for the development of our SNSA from 2024-2025. The cross-policy alignments and reviewing links to our existing governance groups has been as equal an opportunity as a challenge. This type of activity is likely to be continual, however, activity that began in 2023-2024, and continues into 2024-2025, will result in community justice strategic plan alignments with the refreshed HSCP Strategic Plan (CJ already referenced in 2022-2025 plan), Alcohol and Drugs Partnership Strategy, Equally Safe and Corporate Parenting Plans. A review of the Chief Officers Group for Public Protection is underway, and Community Justice reporting is part of those considerations. Page 113
Page 114
Priority Action One Enhance intervention at the earliest opportunity by ensuring greater consistency, confidence in and awareness of services which support the use of direct measures and diversion from prosecution Nationally determined outcome: More people successfully complete diversion from prosecution1 Local Evidence • Mechanisms are in place to understand the views of people undertaking diversion from prosecution and are used to support improvement. (not available - included as an improvement action linked to local CJ Plan) • Mechanisms are in place to understand the views of people supporting the delivery of diversion from prosecution and are used to support improvement. (not available - included as an improvement action linked to local CJ Plan 2024-2027) 5. What activity has taken place to increase successful completion of diversion? What impact has there been as a result? In developing your answer to this question, you should engage with the relevant local partners involved in the planning, development, delivery and monitoring of activity. We would encourage you to reflect on engagement and collaborative activity rather than solely single service delivery. For this Priority Action, you may wish to consider involvement from the following partners and stakeholders: • Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service (COPFS) • Police Scotland • Justice Social Work • Third Sector • Health • Skills Development Scotland • Scottish Fire and Rescue Service • Any other partners as relevant Over the past year Justice Social Work has undertaken improvement activity to develop and enhance the quality of diversion from prosecution services offered. A baseline audit was undertaken during 2023 using the care inspectorate case file audit tool. Following this an improvement action plan was developed which included a number of key areas and actions for improvement. The audit was repeated during 2024 and significant improvements were noted 1 National Indicator: Number of diversion from prosecution: • assessments undertaken • cases commenced • cases successfully completed Page 114
Page 115
across all key areas, including quality of assessment reports, timescales, information sharing, quality of action plans, and quality of completion reports. Whilst Justice Social Work is the sole agency that delivers diversion from prosecution, there is clear evidence of joint work with partner agencies where relevant to individual need. This has involved joint work around Adult Support and Protection, anti social behaviour, mental health, addictions, education, children and families social work, housing and benefit maximisation work. Numbers being referred from the Procurator Fiscal for Diversion from Prosecution has remained high during 2023/24, following a large increase in referrals during 2022/23. Further work has been identified for the year 24/25 around increasing the use of Justice Star within Diversion from Prosecution to better capture the needs of this diverse client group that have spanned the age range of 16 – 80 years, and the full spectrum of offending behaviours. The Community Justice Partnership will continue to monitor the national developments from the SG Diversion Group and how that impacts locally. In particular the forthcoming revised national Diversion Guidelines. Justice Social Work will provide updates to the Community Justice Partnership with regards to the Local Evidence progress. Page 115
Page 116
Priority Action Two Improve the identification of underlying needs and the delivery of support following arrest by ensuring the provision of person-centred care within police custody and building upon referral opportunities to services including substance use and mental health services Nationally determined outcome: More people in police custody receive support to address their needs2 Local Evidence: • There is an effective relationship between community justice partners, Alcohol and Drug Partnerships (ADPs) and police custody centre for local population. (not available - included as an improvement action linked to local CJ Plan) • Referral pathways and support are in place from police custody centre for local population (not available - included as an improvement action linked to local CJ Plan) 6. What activity has taken place to support people in police custody to access support? What impact has there been as a result? In developing your answer to this question, you should engage with the relevant local partners involved in the planning, development, delivery and monitoring of activity. We would encourage you to reflect on engagement and collaborative activity rather than solely single service delivery. For this Priority Action, you may wish to consider involvement from the following partners and stakeholders: • Police Scotland • Local Authority • Justice Social Work • Third Sector • Health • Scottish Courts and Tribunal Service • Any other partners as relevant During 2023-2024, Police Scotland were engaged with the Information Commissioner around the processes and consent for Arrest Referral, only in July 2024 was the refreshed national approach launched. In the meantime, locally Community Justice Coordinator, ADP Coordinator, Third Sector Addictions Manager and Police Scotland L Division Inspector explored opportunities to review current arrest referral numbers and consider interim activity we could pursue. Nationally, the Community Justice Coordinator and Police Scotland Inspector engaged with Police Scotland 2 National Indicator: • Number of referrals from custody centres Page 116
Page 117
Custody Suite leads, a team of less than 5 covering the whole of Scotland. Some areas of clarity were provided: ➢ Argyll & Bute citizens are held in custody suites mainly out with the local area therefore the need to develop a strategic needs and strengths assessment that clearly reflects these unique elements ➢ As a guide, some information was shared verbally, which showed that addiction accounted for only 10% of identified presenting vulnerabilities with Police Custody ➢ Information relating to With You (formerly We Are With You) was absent from Argyll & Bute based Custody Suites, identified following local meeting with the Custody Sergeant arranged by L Division Inspector The finite national resources contribute to the challenges with baselining this Community Justice Pathway, we have requested the following information, our Police Scotland national Custody Suite colleagues have acknowledged our request and are working on it during 2024- 2025. ➢ The numbers and location of arrest and custody suite (if held) ➢ The breakdown of presenting issues recorded ➢ Person profile (Age, Gender, etc) We hope this, and other key data and information, can be provided and analysed as part of the development of our CJ SNSA during 2024-2025. The Community Justice Partnership recognises the inclusion of national activity within the Scottish Government Community Justice Delivery Plan, how that translates at a local level remains a challenge. With regard to the Local Evidence updates will be provided to the Community Justice Partnership by Police Scotland and ADP reps, supported by the Community Justice Coordinator. Page 117
Page 118
Priority Action Three Support the use of robust alternatives to remand by ensuring high quality bail services are consistently available and delivered effectively Nationally determined outcome: More people are assessed for and successfully complete bail supervision3 Local Evidence • Mechanisms are in place to support a high quality bail assessment. (available – will be reported to CJP) • Referral pathways are in place that support identified needs of people on bail supervision. (available – will be reported to CJP) 7. What activity has taken place to increase the use of bail, and support people to access services to address needs while on bail? What impact has there been as a result? In developing your answer to this question, you should engage with the relevant local partners involved in the planning, development, delivery and monitoring of activity. We would encourage you to reflect on engagement and collaborative activity rather than solely single service delivery. For this Priority Action, you may wish to consider involvement from the following partners and stakeholders: • Defence Agents • Police Scotland • Scottish Courts and Tribunal Service • Third Sector • Justice Social Work • Crown Office and Procurators Fiscal Service • Judiciary • Employability, Education and Training services • Housing • Health • Any other partners as relevant 3 National Indicator: Number of: • assessment reports for bail suitability • bail supervision cases commenced • bail supervision cases completed Page 118
Page 119
During 2023/24 Justice Social Work has seen an increase in the completion of bail assessments and bail supervision orders.( Increased from 15 assessments in 2022/23 – 57 in 23/24 and orders 2 in 22/23 – 15 in 23/24) There continues however to be a wide disparity in the conversion from assessments completed to orders imposed. Latest data indicates that the conversion rate during the reporting period is 26.3%. The reasons for this are unclear as no information is given as to the decisions made in Court. Anecdotal evidence indicates that a number of cases are released on standard bail, on occasions prior to the bail assessment being submitted. Within Argyll & Bute, Justice Social Work aim to complete bail assessments on those identified via the bail opposed information received from the PF. Due to the part time criminal business Courts that operate across Argyll & Bute, many of the bail assessments are undertaken on those appearing in Courts outwith our local area. We are therefore at a disadvantage of not having ready access to defence agents and are reliant on Geoamey allowing telephone access to complete bail assessments meaning access to the person is not immediate. This may go some way to understanding the low conversion rate and the cases that are released on standard bail prior to assessments being submitted due to unavoidable delays. The remand population for Argyll & Bute does not appear to have to have been impacted by the introduction of bail supervision with numbers on remand being relatively static throughout the year, with lows of 16 in June 23 to highs of 25 in May and September 23. This is an area that requires further monitoring to fully understand what impact of increasing bail supervision orders and assessments is having on our remand population. Justice Social Work will provide updates to the Community Justice Partnership with regards to the Local Evidence progress. Page 119
Page 120
Priority Action Four Strengthen options for safe and supported management in the community by increasing and widening the use of electronic monitoring technologies No nationally determined outcome. Progress in delivering this priority action should be evidenced with reference to any relevant local activity. 8. What activity has taken place in your area to increase the use electronic monitoring technologies? What impact has there been as a result? This priority action was identified by Scottish Government as requiring nationally-driven actions as set out by the community justice strategy delivery plan. Given this is a developing area that does not have a national outcome, CJS do not expect many local areas to have undertaken significant activity in relation to it, however we recognise that some local areas, for example those involved with EM pilot projects, may want to report on their activity. The use of Electronic Monitoring in Bail and as a requirement of CPO’s is small. This is considered in all relevant cases, however due to the geography of A&B this has not been a priority area for us to develop. Despite recommendations for EM bail being made, we are not seeing a high take up of this by the Courts ( please refer to section 3 on bail supervision). Examples of where EM has been imposed as a requirement of a CPO is mainly in domestic abuse cases where it has been used to exclude away from victims addresses. Caution has to be taken with this however due to not inadvertently disclosing victim addresses, if this is not known to the perpetrator. In all cases where such a restriction is being considered, permission is sought from the victim. Electronic monitoring does continue to be used as stand alone Restriction of Liberty Orders and as conditions of Parole Licences where relevant. The CJP will continue to monitor the use of EM in Argyll & Bute, as part of CPO’s and wider, reflections on whether our diverse geography contributes to the low usage by the judiciary. This continued into 2024/25. Page 120
Page 121
Priority Action 5 Ensure that those given community sentences are supervised and supported appropriately to protect the public, promote desistance from offending and enable rehabilitation by delivering high quality, consistently available, trauma-informed services and programmes Nationally determined outcome: More people access services to support desistance and successfully complete community sentences4 Local Evidence • Availability of local programmes to support desistance from domestic abuse and sexual offending. (not available - due to lack of national funding) • Availability of referral pathways to support the needs of local population on community disposals.(available - will be reported to CJP) • Mechanisms are in place to understand the views of people with experience of community disposals to support improvement. (not available - included as an improvement action linked to local CJ Plan) • Mechanisms are in place to understand the views of the community justice workforce with regard to supporting the needs of people subject to community disposals to support improvement. (not available - included as an improvement action linked to local CJ Plan) 9. What activity has taken place that will support people serving sentences in the community to desist from offending, address their needs, and help them successfully complete their sentence? What impact has there been as a result? In developing your answer to this question, you should engage with the relevant local partners involved in the planning, development, delivery and monitoring of activity. We would encourage you to reflect on engagement and collaborative activity rather than solely single service delivery. For this Priority Action, you may wish to consider involvement from the following partners and stakeholders: • Justice Social Work • Police Scotland • Scottish Courts and Tribunal Service • Third Sector • Health • Any other partners as relevant 4 National Indicator: Percentage of: • community payback orders successfully completed • drug treatment and testing orders successfully completed Page 121
Page 122
Within Argyll & Bute we have had had newly appointed Sheriffs in both Dunoon and Oban Sheriff Courts. There has been open dialogue with the sentencers from JSW so there is a shared understanding of the services that are offered as part of community sentences. To ensure a consistent trauma informed approach is taken by JSW, all staff have been trained and accredited in DBT approaches during 2023. DBT is an intensive, structured, skills-based cognitive-behavioural program that enhances emotional regulation, distress tolerance, mindfulness, and interpersonal skills. DBT already includes several of the additional components of effective CBT programs (e.g., interpersonal skills, emotion regulation skills) and it has shown its effectiveness among difficult-to-treat populations, such as those with borderline personality disorder, comorbid substance use disorders, psychopathy, and antisocial personality traits. It also links well with the main RNR (Risk, Need and Responsivity Principles). This will be used as a basis for all intervention work across the service and will be tailored to the individual’s needs as identified in Case Management Plans. It is anticipated that this will ensure consistency of service provision across Argyll & Bute. JSW have adopted a proactive approach to dealing with non compliance and breach of community sentences, using welfare checks, core groups and multi agency meetings to understand the root cause of non compliance and put strategies in place to try and avoid recurrence unless there is a high risk to public protection. With regard to the Local Evidence, this is included as part of our local CJ Plan, however, the availability (and delivery) of sexual offending and domestic abuse programmes is out with the control of Argyll & Bute, at this point, without significant additional funding to support. Page 122
Page 123
Priority Action 6 Ensure restorative justice is available across Scotland to all those who wish to access it by promoting and supporting the appropriate and safe provision of available services No nationally determined outcome. Progress in delivering this priority action should be evidenced with reference to any relevant local activity. 10. What activity has taken place to make restorative justice available to people and support them to access it, and what impact has there been as a result? This priority action was identified by Scottish Government as requiring nationally-driven actions as set out by the community justice strategy delivery plan. Given this is a developing area that does not have a national outcome, CJS do not expect many local areas to have undertaken significant activity in relation to it, however we recognise that some local areas, for example those involved with RJ pilot projects or who commission their own RJ services locally, may want to report on their activity. Decision made by CJP to monitor the national progress, however, without significant additional funding, at this point, it’s not possible for Argyll & Bute to deliver. Page 123
Page 124
Priority Action Seven Enhance individuals' access to health and social care and continuity of care following release from prison by improving the sharing of information and partnership-working between relevant partners Nationally determined outcome: More people have access to, and continuity of, health and social care following release from a prison sentence5 Local Evidence • Health and social care circumstances/care plans are reflected in collaborative plans for release. (partially available – no standard approach for voluntary throughcare. Development in progress 2024/25) • Referral pathways and information sharing arrangements are in place to support timely access to health and social care supports upon release. (partially available – no standard approach for voluntary throughcare. Development in progress 2024/25) 11. What activity has taken place to support people to access health and social care support after release from prison, and what impact had there been as a result? In developing your answer to this question, you should engage with the relevant local partners involved in the planning, development, delivery and monitoring of activity. We would encourage you to reflect on engagement and collaborative activity rather than solely single service delivery. For this Priority Action, you may wish to consider involvement from the following partners and stakeholders: • Police Scotland • Scottish Prison Service • Health • Skills Development Scotland • Local authority • Third Sector • Any other partners as relevant Health and social care needs of those requiring services are identified during pre release planning and this is done on a case by case basis. Of note is the growing number of elderly prisoners who require packages of care in the community, or nursing care. JSW refer to adult services at the earliest opportunity and work closely with them to ensure appropriate packages of care can be sourced. JSW work closely and commission an Autism consultant in appropriate 5 National Indicator: Number of transfers in drug/alcohol treatments from: • custody to community Page 124
Page 125
cases. Mental health services can be difficult to access, particularly forensic services in the West of Argyll. The commissioning of Lomond & Argyll Advocacy Service to deliver a rights-based voluntary throughcare service (partly funded by JSW and attributable to 2024-2025 JSW statistics) is a significant opportunity. As noted above, operational from April 2024, with both postholders recruited having lived experience of the justice system so have solid knowledge of the challenges. As the project has developed, the realisation from that delivering equity of access to services across the complex landscape of Argyll & Bute is not straightforward. One of the key highlights was the engagement and support for the project within our lead prison HMP Greenock, who continue to play a key role in high take up rates. They supported the Community Justice Coordinator and facilitated a multi-agency meeting with A&B reps from Addictions (statutory and third sector), Housing, Justice Social Work alongside the LAAS CJ Advocacy Service reps. The learning from this project will inform opportunities during 2024-2025, which might present as challenges initially. Of the 16 liberated by the end of July 2024, 14 provided explicit consent (via HMP Greenock and Low Moss Link Centres) to be referred to LAAS CJ Advocacy Service. With the new nationally commissioned voluntary throughcare service due to begin April 2025, the CJP will have a focus on how that service will assist the CJP to deliver on improvements. Page 125
Page 126
Priority Action Eight Ensure that the housing needs of individuals in prison are addressed consistently and at an early stage by fully implementing and embedding the Sustainable Housing on Release for Everyone (SHORE) standards across all local authority areas Nationally determined outcome: More people have access to suitable accommodation following release from a prison sentence6 Local Evidence • SPS admissions and liberations information is shared with relevant partners to support suitable accommodation planning. (available – collated information since May 2020) • Proportion of admissions where housing advice was provided. (not available - SPS responsibility. Local indicator could be developed) • Percentage of people leaving prison who have been housed by the local authority and have maintained tenancy for more than 1 year (not available – included in CJ Plan activity) 12. What activity has taken place to support people to access suitable accommodation following release from prison, and what impact had there been as a result? In developing your answer to this question, you should engage with the relevant local partners involved in the planning, development, delivery and monitoring of activity. We would encourage you to reflect on engagement and collaborative activity rather than solely single service delivery. For this Priority Action, you may wish to consider involvement from the following partners and stakeholders: • Scottish Prison Service • Housing Services • Other housing providers/landlords • Justice Social Work • Health • Third Sector • Any other partners as relevant Housing emergency declared by A&B. JSW and SOPU have an excellent working relationship with A&B’s Housing SOLO to secure suitable accommodation options for MAPPA cases released on licence. Pathways are in place to identify housing and public protection needs at 6 National Indicator: Number of: • homelessness applications where prison was the property the main applicant became homeless from Page 126
Page 127
an early point in the pre release process to ensure sufficient time is given for the identification of properties and ERA’s to be undertaken and risk mitigation strategies to be explored. This can be challenging in small rural communities where SOPU and JSW are easily identifiable in visiting properties. Extra caution is therefore required to avoid outings of individuals. JSW and housing work in collaboration during pre release planning for any other service users due to be released on licence taking into account needs, risks and any victim issues. The requirement for housing support is also discussed at this stage and JSW work closely with Carrgorm to identify needs and appropriate supports. Argyll and Bute Council Housing Services continue to engage with the national SHORE review and attend the Housing Hub meetings to share best practice with other local authorities. In terms of the general prison population, Housing is engaging with LAAS to ensure suitable accommodation and support are provided on release. Whilst this annual report is up to end of March 2024, it is worth noting that both Justice Social Work and Housing have been consistently involved with the LAAS since April 2024 to progress the pathway planning model for Argyll & Bute, further detail will be provided in our next annual report. Through the data collection and learning from the commissioned voluntary throughcare service with LAAS during 2024/2025, there will be an improved understanding of the Custody to Community Pathway, with housing being one element. This is being monitored via CJP during 2024/2025. Page 127
Page 128
Priority Action Nine Enhance individual's life skills and readiness for employment by ensuring increased access to employability support through effective education, learning, training, career services and relevant benefit services Nationally determined outcome: More people with convictions access support to enhance their readiness for employment7 Local Evidence • Effective links between the Local Employability Partnership (LEP) and Community Justice Partnership supports: i. local employment, education and training providers to respond to the needs of those with convictions ii. local employment, education and training providers are confident and competent in providing effective conviction disclosure support iii. local employers to develop more inclusive recruitment processes and employ people with convictions. • Referral pathways are in place to connect people to appropriate services and support: i. at commencement of, during and at the end of a CPO ii. following release from custody. 13. What activity has taken place to support people to access employability support, and what impact had there been as a result? In developing your answer to this question, you should engage with the relevant local partners involved in the planning, development, delivery and monitoring of activity. We would encourage you to reflect on engagement and collaborative activity rather than solely single service delivery. For this Priority Action, you may wish to consider involvement from the following partners and stakeholders: • Local Authority employability services • Skills Development Scotland • Third Sector • Scottish Prison Service • Scottish Courts and Tribunals Services • Any other partners as relevant 7 Links with National Indicator: Percentage of: • those in employability services with convictions Page 128
Page 129
Benefit maximisation is offered to all those eligible who are working with JSW via welfare rights workers within Argyll & Bute Council and Carrgorm. JSW also links with various employability services across A&B and other agencies such as venture trust and local initiatives such as the Tullichan Trust and Spark Your Purpose. The CJP will progress strategic alignment to the Argyll & Bute Employability Group during 2024/2025 to explore opportunities. Justice Social Work will provide updates to CJP via Community Sentencing reporting. Page 129
Page 130
Priority Action Ten Enhance community integration and support by increasing and promoting greater use of voluntary throughcare and third sector services Nationally determined outcome: More people access voluntary throughcare following a short term prison sentence8 Local Evidence • Mechanisms are in place for partners to support people serving short term sentences. (not for people without Justice Social Work support – in place though commissioned LAAS CJ Advocacy Project 2024-2025) • Proportion of people liberated from short term custody: i. made aware of support ii. accepting support offer iii. with a co-ordinated pre-release plan in place. (not for people without Justice Social Work support – in place though commissioned LAAS CJ Advocacy Project 2024-2025) • Mechanisms are in place to understand the views of people accessing voluntary throughcare to support improvement. (not in place – part of local CJ Plan) • Mechanisms are in place to understand the views of community justice partners in delivering voluntary throughcare to support the needs of people leaving short term custody. (not in place – part of local CJ Plan) 14. What activity has taken place to support people to access voluntary throughcare? What impact had there been as a result? In developing your answer to this question, you should engage with the relevant local partners involved in the planning, development, delivery and monitoring of activity. We would encourage you to reflect on engagement and collaborative activity rather than solely single service delivery. For this Priority Action, you may wish to consider involvement from the following partners and stakeholders: • Police Scotland • Justice Social Work • Scottish Prison Service • Third Sector • Health • Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service • Integration Joint Boards • Any other partners as relevant 8 National Indicator: Number of: • voluntary throughcare cases commenced Page 130
Page 131
The commissioning of Lomond & Argyll Advocacy Service to deliver a rights-based voluntary throughcare service (partly funded by JSW and attributable to 2024-2025 JSW statistics) is a significant opportunity. For 2023/2024, there was no formal process in place for offering people access to voluntary throughcare in Argyll & Bute. Learning from the project will feature in our 2024/2025 annual report. There is a range of local data and statistics collated, relating to notified liberations for 2023- 2024, national statistics from Justice Analytical Services show a significant increase in the use of custodial during 2023-2024. This is slightly above pre lockdown levels, and the stark increase could be related to backlog of trials, although that’s unclear and further analysis is underway during 2024-2025. Comparing prison population data the biggest noticeable increase is in sentence types 2 years – under 4 years, this moved from a monthly figure of 5 (at end of March 23) to 12 (at end of March 24) Of the 33 notified releases during 2023-2024, 58% (19) were open to Justice Social Work (statutory throughcare and community payback orders). 39% (13) were previously known to Justice Social Work (orders, reports, etc) and only 3% (1) had never been known. This contributes to a soft indicator of prevalence of reoffending. Other locally derived community justice statistics show that of the releases in 2023-2024, 2 people were released twice in the year and 20 of those appeared on Liberation Notifications for the first time in 2023-2024. The net number of people involved was 27. One of the key highlights was the engagement and support for the project within our lead prison HMP Greenock, who continue to play a key role in high take up rates. They supported the Community Justice Coordinator and facilitated a multi-agency meeting with A&B reps from Addictions (statutory and third sector), Housing, Justice Social Work alongside the LAAS CJ Advocacy Service reps. Initial intentions were to advise the people in prison of the service availability via Email A Prisoner, HMP Greenock Link Centre suggested a process where email is sent to them, leaflet is provided and consent requested. A much more efficient and effective process. Some early indicators available from April-July 2024 show: • Of the 16 made aware of the LAAS CJ Advocacy Service, 14 gave explicit consent for a referral. • An additional referral via community services was made, for a woman recently released from prison • Of the 15 referrals, 13 actively engaged (April-June) Some other extracts from the LAAS Q1 2024-2025 report are below. The service advised they do not record ethnicity of clients: Page 131
Page 132
Closed Cases There were 5 cases closed during this quarter Length of Involvement At present the average length of involvement is 79 days however as the project is still new, this number and those in the table below may not be an accurate reflection of case length due to the small sample size. These numbers are likely to change as the project continues and we have a larger number of closed cases to sample. Length of Case Involvement (in days) Number of Clients <30 2 30-60 4 60-90 2 90-120 4 120+ 3 Page 132
Page 133
Focus of Work Access to Information 1 Rights Respect and Recovery Support 2 Substance/Alcohol Issues 5 Signposting to other services 3 Finance/Benefits Issues 3 Family/Relationship Issues 1 Housing 11 Access to Legal Services 1 Engagement with Social Work Services 1 Engagement with NHS Services 4 Employment issues 1 Loneliness 1 Health and Wellbeing 3 Isolation 1 Access to Recovery Focused Treatment 4 Not recorded 3 Our advocates assisted with a range of issues in this quarter. The most common focus of work was around housing, with 85% of clients who engaged with advocacy reporting issues with housing. The second most common focus of work was around substance and alcohol issues with 38% of clients who engaged with our services reporting issues with substances and/or alcohol. In this quarter we signposted 3 clients to other services. The table below details the issues that clients reported to our advocates. Page 133
Page 134
Priority Action Eleven Deliver improved community justice outcomes by ensuring that effective leadership and governance arrangements are in place and working well, collaborating with partners and planning strategically No nationally determined outcome. Progress in delivering this priority action should be evidenced with reference to any relevant local activity. Local evidence: • Mechanisms are in place to support engagement in each local authority, specifically: o a community justice outcomes improvement plan (CJOIP) (draft in progress) o a participation statement (draft in progress) o an annual report on progress towards nationally and locally determined outcomes. (available) • Mechanisms are in place to support an effective interface between national partner organisations and their local representatives within Community Justice Partnerships. (some evidence) • Evidence of mechanisms to engage non-statutory partners in strategic planning (some evidence) • Use of the Care Inspectorate 'self-evaluation guide to support quality improvement for community justice in Scotland', with focus on Leadership and Direction (planned from 2024-2025) 15. How has your partnership worked to develop local leadership and enhance strategic planning and collaboration? What impact had there been as a result? Scottish Government have indicated that activity to delivery in relation to this priority action should be built into the work of partners to progress the 9 national outcomes. We encourage partners to reflect on what local activity has taken place to develop engagement, collaboration, and demonstrate leadership in community justice partnership working. For example, this could include development as a partnership, engagement and joint working with other local strategic partnerships, or other relevant activity. If any self-evaluation activity has been undertaken, this may support development of this answer. Please refer to challenges and opportunities sections above in Question 4 on the challenges, positives and opportunities in these Partenerships. Community Justice/Youth Justice Community Justice/Violence Against Women & Girls/Equally Safe Community Justice/Alcohol and Drug Partnership Page 134
Page 135
Priority Action Twelve Enhance partnership planning and implementation by ensuring the voices of victims of crime, survivors, those with lived experience and their families are effectively incorporated and embedded No nationally determined outcome. Progress in delivering this priority action should be evidenced with reference to any relevant local activity. 16. How has your partnership worked to understand and incorporate the voices of victims of crime, survivors, those with lived experience and their families into partnership planning and implementation? What impact has there been as a result? Scottish Government have indicated that activity to delivery in relation to this priority action should be built into the work of partners to progress the 9 national outcomes. We encourage partners to reflect on what local activity has taken place to enable participation of people accused or convicted of offences, their families, victims of crime and other stakeholders in community justice strategic planning, delivery and impact monitoring. JSW have organised video conferencing facilities on one occasion over the past year for victims to observe tribunal hearings under the Parole Board (Scotland) Amendment Rules 2021 which came into effect on 1st March 2021. Jointly funded local research with Violence Against Women Partnership (Delivering Equally Safe fund) on the impacts of women experiencing domestic abuse and multi-agency responses was received in May 2023. Dr Anni Donaldson, Transforming Responses to Violence Against Women and Girls, Domestic Abuse in Argyll & Bute, was being discussed in governance groups during 2023-2024. An action plan on publishing and taking forward is underway during 2024-2025. Due to changing leads, it’s been difficult to establish links with Victim Support, this is an area for improvement during 2024-2025. The is a significant gap with engagement and involvement of lived/living experience. All of the above are addressed in our developing local CJ Plan. Page 135
Page 136
Priority Action Thirteen Support integration and reduce stigma by ensuring the community and workforce have an improved understanding of and confidence in community justice Nationally determined outcome: More people across the workforce and in the community understand, and have confidence in, community justice9 Local Evidence • Community justice partner contribution to joint activity across policy areas to tackle stigma. 17. What partnership-driven activity has taken place to improve understanding of and confidence in community justice across the workforce and local community? In developing your answer to this question, you should engage with the relevant local partners involved in the planning, development, delivery and monitoring of activity. We would encourage you to reflect on engagement and collaborative activity rather than solely single service delivery. For this Priority Action, you may wish to consider involvement from the following partners and stakeholders: • Other local area strategic partnerships (e.g., Community planning, Alcohol and Drugs, Violence Against Women and Girls, Health Integration Joint Boards, etc.) • Third Sector • Any other local or national partners as relevant There has been no activity relating to this in 2023-2024, it is included in our developing local CJ Plan. 9 National Indicator: Percentage of people who agree that: • people should help their community as part of a community sentence rather than spend a few months in prison for a minor offence Page 136
Page 137
18. Look ahead for your local area. Please tell us what the next steps are for your partnership. Reflective questions to consider in developing your answer: What are the next steps for your partnership? What opportunities are there? What barriers and/or risks? The key next step for the A&B CJP is to finalise the local plan for consultation and move forward with implementation of identified achievable improvements. What opportunities are there? A&B CJP are already exploring a wide a range of opportunities with the membership as noted throughout this annual report and are committed to progressing these. The refreshed national documentation provides a focused and diverse strategic planning landscape and A&B CJP is committed to strengthening the local strategic oversight, planning and delivery of community justice services that lead to improved outcomes for those in, or around the edges, of the criminal justice system, victims and families. Taking opportunities to widen the membership of A&B CJP will continue to be pursued to strengthen the knowledge and expertise that contribute to reducing offending and reoffending through delivery models that incorporate holistic assessment of needs, ease of access to services and that is trauma-informed and responsive. What barriers and/or risks? The main barriers and risks are around finance, resource, and delivering to remote, rural and island communities while the collective potential of A&B CJP membership is becoming better understood, members are operating within an environment of reducing budgets within public sector, separate funding streams, formulas and associated constraints will impact on capacity for improvement, without additional funding. Delivery of restorative justice services at a local level, as an example from the national strategy, will not be possible without national additional funding/resources. A&B CJP are confident that the activity underway in relation to: data collection; evidence base; and, completion of a range of Strategic Needs & Strengths Assessments will provide a solid baseline to identify what improvements can be delivered locally within current resources, and what is out with our ability to deliver. The wider improvements within the criminal justice system, including COPFS in relation to quicker marking targets (all within 4 weeks) and SCTS in relation to reducing court backlogs, all have a potential impact for Justice Social Work in particular in relation to Diversion, Court related work and new Community Sentence orders. A&B CJP is committed to developing a performance framework that will ensure we are able to address any barriers and/or support any improvement activity. The potential for an increasing Justice Social Work workload will be of particular interest to the A&B CJP Page 137
Page 138
The range of legislation which impacts on community justice outcomes, particularly the Bail and Release (Scotland) and Children’s Care and Justice (Scotland) Act alongside the Victims, Witnesses and Justice Reform (Scotland) Bill amongst others, will have a local impact across several portfolio areas. A&B CJP will continue to develop and strengthen the strategic planning relationships and give careful considerations to the local impacts and ultimately how it contributes to improving community justice outcomes. The introduction of the National Care Service and how that aligns and impacts the statutory duties and deliverables of the A&B CJP will also be a key consideration during the next few years. As noted throughout this report, commissioning and delivering services across the diverse geographical expanse of Argyll & Bute is challenging, A&B CJP is committed to developing an improved understanding through creating meaningful place-based baselines to inform the potential for improvement in the next few years. As noted on page 6 these are also identified as barriers for the CJP to monitor: ➢ Restrictions in national and local funding ➢ Difficulties in recruiting, particularly in remote and island areas ➢ A crisis in the availability of housing ➢ Changes in legislation and statutory guidance ➢ Changes in social work (justice) dictated by the Home Office. Eg. ViSOR ➢ The impact of policy initiatives, for example, early release from prisons ➢ Ongoing Cost-of-Living crisis ➢ Uncertainty caused by the development of the National Care Service ➢ Changes in judicial practice and processing Page 138
Page 139
Management Committee Date: 16 April 2025 Argyll and Bute (CLD) Strategic Partnership and Plan 2024 -2027 1.0 Purpose This report provides the CPP Management Committee with an overview of the CLD Strategic Partnership's efforts to meet HMIe recommendations from January 2024 progress visit and the development and delivery of the CLD Strategic Partnership Plan for 2024-2027. 2.0 Recommendations The CPP Management Committee are asked to note: 1. The CLD HMIe Progress Visit update 2. HMIe Feedback Report (a year on) 3. The Independent Review of Community Learning and Development CLD. Kate Still Report Learning for All for Life 4. Community Learning - Argyll and Bute Council Internal Audit 3.0 Background Argyll and Bute’s CLD Strategic Partnership Plan 2024-2027 continues to develop six key themes: 1. Digital Skills 2. Core skills for learning, life and work 3. Health and wellbeing 4. Your voice 5. The learner Offer 6. Improve how we work as a partnership The CLD Partnership work through various actions associated with each of the themes. Argyll and Bute have a strong track record in partnership working. Effective community learning and development (CLD) relies on a robust multi-agency and multi- sector approach to provide universal services and targeted interventions for disadvantaged individuals and vulnerable groups. Joint ownership of the CLD Strategic Partnership Plan and commitment from all partners is essential to the overall success of the partnership and its broader impact on communities. Page 139 Agenda Item 9
Page 140
4.0 Detail 4.1 Update on CLD HMIe Progress Visit Following our HMIe progress visit in January 2024, we recognised the need for significant progress in our plans outcomes, ensuring they are measurable and aligned with updated local and national policies. During the past year we delivered a number of CPD/training sessions to stakeholders, and CLD workers on measuring, evaluating, and reporting both quantitative and qualitative data related to specific outcomes and relevant, measurable success criteria. As a result, we received positive feedback from those in attendance in increased confidence and understanding in improvement planning and measuring of data. As part of the training the Partnership now have a Performance Tracker for Partners that encompasses performance reporting on outcomes, performance measures, baseline data, timelines, and a RAG rating system to track risks. The new tracker will support the collective strategic improvement work of the Partnership and ensure transparency as well as enhanced opportunities to evaluate progress and plan necessary interventions. 4.2 HMIe Feedback Report (a year on) As part of the process of the progress visit in 2024 the HMIe Inspectors asked for an update report on what improvements we have made in relation to their recommendations. Based on the information we presented to the inspectors they are confident that we have demonstrated progress since last year’s visit. The Argyll and Bute CLD HMIe Progress Visit Inspection is now officially signed off, with no further actions required and we will circulate the official published report once received. 4.3 Independent CLD Review Kate Still was commissioned by the Scottish Government to independently review the CLD provision across Scotland. Argyll and Bute were selected as one of the authorities for a face-to-face focus session visit with Kate and her team. The following programme took place: • Community Learning: Adult Learning face-to-face focus session visit (took place in Helensburgh Library 08/02/24). • Community Learning and Development Workers - attended online professional dialogue meetings alongside other CLD Practitioners across the regions to meet with Kate Still and her team (took place 14/02/24). Page 140
Page 141
• The Community Learning Manager attended meetings and gave feedback through the CLD Standards Council and the Northern Alliance. • As part of the independent review Argyll and Bute’s Scottish Attainment Officer was invited to attend a meeting to discuss areas of provision and the Community Learning Service Manager and CLD Education Officer submitted current update data/stats of youth provision in schools across Argyll and Bute and ESOL. The CLD Strategic Partnership Plan 2024/27 has included the actions and recommendations of the review. Moving forward any further updates or directives will be included as and when they emerge. 4.4 Community Learning - Argyll and Bute Council Internal Audit The scope of the audit was to review the effectiveness and equity of service provision across Argyll and Bute that is managed by liveArgyll. The audit took place on 26 September 2024. The audit focused on the delivery of Community Learning and liveArgyll’s management of the partnership plan. The feedback from the internal auditor and the subsequent audit report was that the Council can take a high level of assurance. Overall, a sound system of control designed to achieve the system objectives is in place and being applied consistently. In essence this means the internal control, governance and the management of risk are of a high standard. The full audit report can be found in appendix 1. 5.0 Conclusion The CLD Partnership has made significant progress in aligning its plans with updated measurement and performance criteria, supported by training sessions and a new Performance Tracker. The HMIe feedback confirms successful implementation of recommendations, leading to the official sign-off of the inspection. The independent review by Kate Still, highlighted effective CLD provision, with positive stakeholder engagement. The upcoming 3-year CLD Partnership Plan has incorporated the new recommendations. The internal audit by Argyll and Bute Council assures the effectiveness and equity of service provision managed by liveArgyll, affirming strong internal control and governance. For more information, please contact: Paul Ashworth liveArgyll Services and Support Manager Paul.Ashworth@liveargyll.co.uk Page 141
Page 142
Appendix 1 Reference Links: 1. Argyll and Bute CLD Strategic Plan 2024 – 2027 CLD Strategic Partnership Plan 2024-2027 032025.pdf 2. HMIe Published Report on Progress Visit and Recommendation Feb 2024 Details | Find an inspection report | Find an inspection report | Inspection and review | Education Scotland 3. Learning For All. For Life. A report from the Independent Review of Community Learning and Development (CLD) Kate Still published July 2024. https://www.gov.scot/publications/learning-life-report-independent-review-community- learning-development-cld/ 4. Internal Audit Community Education Provision Report 2024_25_InternalAudit_CommunityEducationProvision_Report FINAL.pdf Page 142
Page 143
Sniffer, Edinburgh Climate Change Institute, High School Yards, Infirmary Street, Edinburgh EH1 1LZ, Scotland, UK, T: 0131 651 4674 E: info@sniffer.org.uk W: www.sniffer.org.uk : @SnifferScotland Scottish Charity No SC022375, Company No SC149513. Registered in Edinburgh. Registered Office: Caledonian Exchange, 19a Canning Street, Edinburgh, EH3 8HE Argyll and Bute Climate Trends Analysis September 2024 Page 143 Agenda Item 14
Page 144
1https://themetoffice.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/506ff7d53c884badb0d8fd36d6280a91 2https://www.dynamiccoast.com/ 3https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/15/- 4.9542/55.988/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=tr ue&elevation_model=best_available&refresh=true&water_level=1.0&water_unit=m Introduction This report sets out the approach to, and key findings from, analysis of climate observations and trends from the Argyll and Bute region. The data used came from several sources. The main source of climate trends and projections data came from the 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) User Interface data download site. These data were supplemented with information from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer1. The analysis within this report was supported by using information from the Dynamic Coasts platform2 and the Climate Central websites Coastal Risk Screening Tool that provides maps of land below 1m above the current high tide line3. Given current emission pathways and the challenges in implementing the Paris agreement, the RCP8.5 scenario was used in this analysis, representing a high-emissions scenario. This approach is consistent with the emerging methodology of the 4th UK Climate Change. Projection data was analysed out to 2080, with sea level rise looked at to 2100. The analysis looked at Argyll and Bute at several spatial scales, including regionally (the river basin region), the local authority boundary, and sixteen key settlements across the area. Methodology The approach taken to the data analysis for the climate trends and projections from Argyll and Bute follows analysis undertaken by other Place-Based adaptation partnerships in Scotland such as Climate Ready Clyde and Climate Ready South East Scotland. The overarching aim is to understand the key observed climate trends in recent history in the area, and what the latest climate models project as being experience between 2023 and 2080. The approach was adapted to suit the Argyll and Bute region and the following section sets out the detailed methodology used and explains the reasoning behind the options selected for scenarios, scale, metrics and variables. Data variables Spatial scales Climate projections were looked at for three main spatial scales: • The Argyll river basin region • The Argyll and Bute Local Authority area • Settlements – sixteen key settlements across the region identified by the Climate Change subgroup of the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership. Page 144
Page 145
The UKCP data interface allows you to generate maps, plots and download the raw data for various climate variables, RCP scenarios, geographical and temporal scales. However, not everything is available at all scales, and whilst it is possible to generate maps for the full Argyll and Bute region, the data can only be downloaded at either a “West Scotland” Administrative Boundary scale, or at the Argyll river basin scale. The River basin omits a small part of the region at the eastern side, but the data at this scale was more representative of Argyll and Bute than the whole of West Scotland which also includes all of Ayrshire, D&G, Greater Glasgow and Falkirk. Most data are available at a 2.2km scale, meaning that it is accessible for the settlements used to generate graphs of trends. However, the maps generated by the UKCP user interface use the regional level data and therefore do not show any more detail for the settlements than the regional maps. Therefore, maps for the settlements have not been created. In addition to this, the data is not available for individual local authorities, and the maps again show the same outputs as the regional maps, therefore trends and projections for the Argyll and Bute local authority boundary have been generated using the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer. Emissions scenarios The analysis used the RCP8.5 projections. This is a high emissions scenario and meets the recommendations of the CCRA UK Climate Change Risk Assessment to assess the risks for a 4°C warming. RCPs, or Representative Concentration Pathways, are scenarios for the future concentrations of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere (not emissions at that point in time) and cover a range of assumptions around future population, economic development and impacts of actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions towards international targets. Each pathway drives a different range of simulated global mean temperature increases over the 21st century and are used to model possible future climatic conditions. They range from a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) which models the future if global warming is limited to 1.6°C, to a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) which models the future climate if global warming reaches 4.3°C compared to the 1850-1900 baseline. The information from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer, however, uses Global Warming Levels (GWLs) rather than RCPs, with data provided for three future GWLs (1.5, 2, 4°C). Whilst not exactly comparable, GWL4°C is an approximation of a lower level RCP8.5 scenario, reaching a 3.5°C temperature increase by the 2080s. Therefore, information for GWL4°C has been used for the local authority level analysis. Climate variables Three key climate variables were looked at for all three spatial scales. They are: • Annual mean air temperature (°C) • Precipitation rate (mm/day) • Sea level rise (only applicable to the settlements with a coastline.) In addition to this, seasonal data was looked at for the whole region, but not individual settlements, due to the timescales involved in downloading and processing this data: Page 145
Page 146
• Summer mean air temperature • Winter mean air temperature • Summer precipitation rate • Winter precipitation rate Temporal scales All data were downloaded to 2080. Sea Level data were downloaded to 2100. Climate Change type Regional data is also available in either absolute values or anomaly values. Absolute values project the temperatures and precipitation rates that we are likely to see, whilst the anomaly values show the percentage change from a chosen baseline. Absolute values were used for the majority of the analysis, as the observed trends from 1960 could be combined with the projections with ease, and it was felt that the graphs produced from absolute values would be easier to understand for the audience of the adaptation strategy. However, anomaly values were used also used to calculate the projected change in temperature and precipitation rate in 2100 from 1961. Observational data To assist with analysing the projections in a context of experienced climate trends for the region, observed data for mean air temperature and precipitation rate from 1961 – 2022 were downloaded and incorporated into the projection data. Again, due to the timescales involved in downloading and processing the data, observation data was only included for the annual mean air temperature and precipitation rate analysis for the Argyll River basin region and the individual settlements. It was not looked at seasonally, though that data is available should it be of interest at a later date. Outputs Outputs are in the form of graphs, maps, and tables from the automatically generated reports for the local authorities from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer. Graphs showing the observed climate trends and projections against time have been produced for the regional data and individual settlements. These have been produced either by data manipulation in Excel, or automatically generated by the UKCP User Interface. Page 146
Page 147
Processing the data Data downloaded from the UKCP were processed in excel, with graphs of the climate trends and projections produced for analysis. Observational data was incorporated into these graphs. The Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer was accessed for the local authority specific data, which can be viewed and explored using a web-based dashboard and automatically generated reports downloaded with a summary of the information contained within. For areas not considered coastal by either of the data sources above, the Dynamic Coasts website was used to suggest likely sea level rise by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Page 147
Page 148
Key Findings The analysis of current climate trends (1960 – 2022) in Argyll and Bute show that the average annual air temperature has increased by 1.2°C during that time. Average summer temperature has increased by 1.5°C with average winter temperature increasing by 1.2°C. Average annual rainfall has increased by 400mm per year in that time, equating to an average extra 1.4mm per day across the year. Summer rainfall has increased by 50mm per year since 1960, with winter rainfall increasing by 300mm per year. Mean sea level around Argyll and Bute has risen by approximately 6.8mm per year since 1990. The key findings of the climate projection is that the Argyll and Bute region will experience an increase in average annual temperature of around 3.5°C and an increase in precipitation rate of around 10% from the 1981-2000 baseline by 2080. Sea level is expected to rise by between 0.4 and 0.7m by the 2080s. There is a small amount of variation in these figures across the region, with individual settlements providing a picture of those variations. Seasonal variation is also important to consider, as whilst the annual precipitation rate shows only small amounts of change, the seasonal analysis shows a significant decrease in summer precipitation with an increase in winter precipitation which almost balance each other out over the course of a year. This seasonal variability is likely to have more of an impact on the region as the annual changes given its geography, economics and infrastructure. Page 148
Page 149
Regional Findings Current observations Monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1990 - 2022 were first analysed for Argyll and Bute, to provide a context for the projected changes, particularly seasonally. This has been plotted on the graph below. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the data confirms that temperatures are warmer, and precipitation is less in the summer months than in the winter months. However, it also indicates that, generally, the driest months in Argyll and Bute are actually in Spring – April and May. The largest change in precipitation is seen between September and October, where on average, there is an increase of around 30mm. Average annual temperature and precipitation observations from 1960 – 2022 were also plotted, along with seasonal (summer and winter) observations. Observed annual data shows that the region has already experienced an average temperature increase of around 1.2°C and an increase in precipitation rate of just over 1mm/day since 1960. Observed seasonal data shows that the region has already experienced an average temperature increase in summer of around 1.3°C and an average temperature increase in winter of around 1.4°C. The region has also already experienced an average increase in winter precipitation rate of over 3mm/day and a slight increase in summer precipitation rate of just under 1mm/day since 1960. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Average Monthly Temperature (°C) Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/month) Monthly average observed data for Argyll and Bute river basin region Page 149
Page 150
6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed annual mean air temperature for the Argyll River Basin (°C) 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed total rainfall per year for the Argyll River Basin (mm) 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed annual precipitation rate for the Argyll River Basin (mm/day) Page 150
Page 151
Another important note in the observed data, is the variability between years, as discussed in the key findings summary above. Whilst both the observed data, and projections give an indication of overall trends, the variability of both temperature and rainfall experienced in any given year is very hard to predict and could have a bigger impact on the Argyll region than the annual trends. Projected air temperature and precipitation rates Anomaly values (change from baseline): The below graphs were generated using anomaly values directly in the UKCP User Interface. This data shows change from a baseline of 1961 for the Argyll river basin up to the end of the century. The bold line shows the central project of the 50th percentile i.e. as likely as not in the current scenario. The shaded areas show the other relative percentiles of probability – from 5, 10, 25th, 75th, 90th and 95th. The graphs generated by the UKCP User Interface automatically uses an end date of 2099, where as the data for absolute values (see section below) is only projected to 2080. Therefore, in order to avoid confusion and compare the data, the interpretation of graphs for the anomaly values below have looked at the 2080 date point. The first graph shows the annual average air temperature anomaly – the projected annual temperature increase, indicating a probable increase of around 2.8°C by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed summer mean air temperature for the Argyll River Basin (°C) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed winter mean air temperature for the Argyll River Basin (°C) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed summer precipitation rate for the Argyll River Basin (mm/day) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed winter precipitation rate for the Argyll River Basin (mm/day) Page 151
Page 152
The second graph shows the annual average precipitation rate anomaly – the projected annual change in precipitation, indicating a probable increase of around 9%C by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. Page 152
Page 153
As discussed above, precipitation is usefully looked at across the seasons. Therefore, the following two graphs show the summer and winter average precipitation rate anomaly. These graphs indicate a likely summer decrease in precipitation rate of around 20% by 2080 and a winter increase in precipitation rate of 20% by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. These appear to cancel each other out, so it can be anticipated that the projected annual increase in precipitation rate will mean that spring and autumn will become wetter. Considering the current observed monthly precipitation shown in the graph in the Observed Data section, an increase in autumn precipitation could have significant impacts given the already high precipitation amounts from October onwards, and this would compound the impacts of the increase in winter precipitation as the ground will already be saturated. An increase in spring precipitation, may on the face of it have less of an impact, however, coming on the back of an increase in winter rainfall (not snowfall, as the temperature increase will mean precipitation falls mainly as rain) could have just as severe an impact on again, already saturated ground. Absolute values: Absolute values for both observation and projection data for average annual air temperature and annual precipitation rates were plotted on the same graphs to compare the current trends in climate since 1960 and what the climate models predicted would happen, along with the future projections. Since 1960, the Argyll and Bute region has experienced an increase in average annual temperatures of around 1.4°C, but with high levels of variability from year to year, as seen in the graph below and above. Projections indicate that this increase will continue steadily on reaching close to 11°C by 2080. The graphs also show that the projections fall slightly below the observed temperature from 1960 – 2022, and whilst some of this is down to the way the data is manipulated to get the averages from the 12 different climate models, there is the suggestion that the projections have previously underplayed the amount of warming currently being experienced. Page 153
Page 154
The graph above shows that the Argyll region has experienced a slight increase in annual precipitation rate since 1960, but perhaps more importantly that there is a significant degree of variability between years. The projections indicate that this increase will continue, though perhaps slowly, reaching a little over 7mm/day by 2080. As with the observed data, and anomaly data, precipitation rate projections were looked at seasonally (summer and winter). The below graphs show the observed and projected temperature and precipitation rates in summer (June, July and August) and winter (December, January and February) from 1960 – 2080. Seasonal temperature also shows an observed increasing trend across both summer and winter, which carries on into the projections to 2080. Observed data shows a higher variability in the winter temperatures which the projections do not, which is worth bearing in mind when considering the impacts of the climate trends. 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin average annual air temperatures from (°C) Temperature Observations Temperature Projections 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin annual average precipitation rate (mm/day) Observed Precipitation Rate Projected Precipitation Rate Page 154
Page 155
Seasonal precipitation rates, however, show a different pattern between summer and winter, with a steady decrease in summer and an increase in winter. The observational data again shows a high degree of variability from year to year in precipitation rates, making patterns of overall increases and decreases difficult to ascertain. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin average summer air temperatures (°C) Summer temperature observations Summer temperature projections 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin average winter air temperatures (°C) Winter temperature observations Winter temperature projections 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin summer average precipitation rate (mm/day) Observed summer precipitation rate Projected summer precipitation rate Page 155
Page 156
Sea Level Sea Level data is not available at the regional scale, it is projected at either specific tidal gauge locations or 2km coastal locations. Sea level change will be covered in the local authority section and where relevant in the settlement analysis below. However, looking at the RCP8.5 sea level predictions for around the region, there is the projection that sea levels will arise around the region on average between 0.30 and 0.71m by 2080, taking into account isostatic rebound (gradual rise in land level formerly covered by ice sheets during the Ice Ages), and potentially up to 1m by 2100 in some locations (not factoring in isostatic rebound). The available data only looks at sea level rise in isolation and does not include storm surges or storminess. It is not currently possible to model and project changes in storm surges or storminess with any accuracy, though they are predicted to increase due to the changes in weather patterns expected in a changing climate. The data presented here could be interpreted as a baseline which storm surges would be added to. The Climate Central website Coastal Risk Screening Tool referred to in the introduction provides maps of land below 1m above the current high tide line, which can be used to infer the location of the mean high water line in 2100, though there are caveat around topography of surrounding land and existing and future sea defences that will influence the exact level of sea rise in specific locations. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic Ocean that bring warm water from the tropics up to the west coastline of northern Europe, often called The Gulf Stream. It is a key reason why Scotland doesn’t see the same temperatures as the Baltic Nations and Russia in winter. The AMOC varies from year to year and though there hasn’t been enough monitoring to pick up long terms trends, climate models suggest that the AMOC will weaken as greenhouse gases increase, which could have a significant impact on the UK Climate as less warmer water is brought northwards. There is a large amount of uncertainty of both the affect of a weaker AMOC and at present it hasn’t been included in the UK Climate Projections due to a lack of robust data surrounding it. However, this is being worked on by the Met Office and future Projections will hopefully include it. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin winter average precipitation rate (mm/day) Observed winter precipitation rate Projected winter precipitation rate Page 156
Page 157
Local Authority level Findings As mentioned in the methodology section, the High global Warming Levels used in the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer roughly coincide with the RCP8.5 to 2080. The report for Argyll and Bute suggests an annual average temperature increase of 2.4 - 3.2°C over the 1981-2000 baseline under the high emissions GWL, with the summer average at 4.7°C higher and the winter average 2.5°C higher. These projections also project a summer maximum temperature of 4.7°C above and a winter minimum temperature of 5.3°C above the 1981-2000 baseline. Summer precipitation rate is projected to be around 15% lower with winter precipitation predicted to be around 10% above the 1981-2000 baseline. In addition to temperature and precipitation rate, the Met Officer Local Authority Climate Explorer reports include other climate indicators. The report for Argyll and Bute predicts the following median annual values, for the 4°C GWL: Indicator Baseline (1981-2000) 4°C GWL Median Summer Days1 – daily maximum temperature >25°C 1 10 Hot Summer Days – daily maximum temperature >30°C 0 1 Extreme Summer Days – daily maximum temperature >35°C 0 0 Tropical Nights – daily minimum temperature >20°C 0 0 Frost Days – daily minimum temperature <0°C 52 7 Icing Days – daily maximum temperature <0°C 2 0 Growing Degree2 Days – daily mean temperature >5.5°C 1,249 2,005 Heating Degree Days – daily mean temperature <15.5°C 2,772 1,916 Cooling Degree Days – daily mean temperature <22°C 3 20 For areas with a coastline, the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer also provides projections on sea level. The report for Argyll and Bute projects a sea level rise of between 0.30 and 0.72m above the 1990 mean high tide line by the 2080s. 1 Summer days above the stated temperature thresholds can occur at any time of year. 2 Degree days are not a number of days, but the number of degrees the daily average temperature exceeds the threshold each day, added up over a year. Page 157
Page 158
Settlement Findings Argyll and Bute is a large area, with a diverse geography, topography and coastline. Sixteen key settlements were identified by the CPP to allow the analysis of climate trends across the region. There is a mixture of large and small urban centres, coastal, inland and island settlements, landscape types and topographies: Page 158
Page 159
Arrochar Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Arrochar is predicted to increase over the coming decades, reaching to approximately 10.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.8°C increase in annual average temperature for the Arrochar area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Arrochar is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, which compares to the UKCP anomaly projections suggesting a 5% increase in precipitation rate for the Arrochar area. However, as noted in the regional section above, the variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place. The observational data below shows a high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. Sea Level Rise 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average air temperature at 1.5m at Arrochar (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Arrochar (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 159
Page 160
Despite being at the head of a sea loch, Arrochar is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.9m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 160
Page 161
Campbeltown Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Campbeltown is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080 This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.8°C increase in annual average temperature for the Campbeltown area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Campbeltown is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 10% increase in precipitation rate for the southern Kintyre peninsula, the variation between that and the absolute values for Campbeltown could be due to the eastern location of the town. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average air temperature at 1.5m at Campbeltown (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Campbeltown (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 161
Page 162
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Campbeltown is projected to rise by between 0.58m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Campbeltown (m) RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 162
Page 163
Dunoon Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Dunoon is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Dunoon area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Dunoon is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Dunoon area. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years, however, will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average air temperature at 1.5m at Dunoon (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average precipitation rate at Dunoon (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 163
Page 164
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Dunoon is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 Sea Level Projections at Dunoon (m) RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 164
Page 165
Garelochhead Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Garelochhead is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Garelochhead is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Garelochhead area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Garelochhead (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Gareloch (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 165
Page 166
Sea Level Rise Garelochhead is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.9m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 166
Page 167
Helensburgh Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Helensburgh is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Helensburgh area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Helensburgh is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, which compares to the UKCP anomaly projections suggesting a 5% increase in precipitation rate for the Helensburgh area. The projections do suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Helensburgh (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Helensburgh (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 167
Page 168
Sea Level Rise Helensburgh is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.9m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 168
Page 169
Inveraray Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Inverary is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 10.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.7°C increase in annual average temperature for the Inverary area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Inverary is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest an 8% increase in precipitation rate for the Inverary area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Inverary (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Inverary (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 169
Page 170
Sea Level Rise Inverary is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.91m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 170
Page 171
Lochgilphead Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Lochgilphead is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Lochgilphead area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Lochgilphead is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though with a very slight increase. The UKCP anomaly data, however, suggests that there could be an increase of up to 10%. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Lochgilphead (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Lochgilphead (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 171
Page 172
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Lochgilphead is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 Sea Level Projections at Lochgilhead RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 172
Page 173
Luing Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Luing is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.5°C increase in annual average temperature for the Luing area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Luing is predicated to increased by over 1mm/day compared to the baseline and the projections also suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections that show an anticipated increase in precipitation rate of 11%. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Avergae annual air temperature at 1.5m at Luing (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Luing (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 173
Page 174
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Luing is projected to rise by between 0.58m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Luing RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 174
Page 175
Oban Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Oban is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.6°C increase in annual average temperature for the Oban area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Oban is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Oban area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average mean air temperature at 1.5m at Oban (°C) Observed mean temperature Projected mean temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average precipitation rate at Oban (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 175
Page 176
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Oban is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.92m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Oban (m) RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 176
Page 177
Port Ellen Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Port Ellen is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.8°C increase in annual average temperature for Islay. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Porth Ellen is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, and the projections suggest a slightly higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 10% increase in precipitation rate for Islay, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Port Ellen (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Port Ellen (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 177
Page 178
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at the Port Ellen tidal gauge site is projected to rise by between 0.59m and 0.94m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections Port Ellen tidal guage site RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 178
Page 179
Rothesay Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Rothesay is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Isle of Bute. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Rothesay is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 8% increase in precipitation rate for the Isle of Bute, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Rothsay (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Rothsay (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 179
Page 180
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Rothesay is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Rise projections at Rothesay RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 180
Page 181
Tarbert, Kintyre Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tarbert is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.9°C increase in annual average temperature for the north Kintyre peninsula. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tarbert is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the northern Kintyre peninsula. As with Campbeltown, some of this discrepancy could be due to Tarbert’s location on the eastern side of the 25km grid square used for the anomaly projections. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tarbert (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 6 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tarbert (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 181
Page 182
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tarbert is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Rise projections at Tarbert RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 182
Page 183
Tayvallich Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tayvallich is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Tayvallich area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tayvallich is predicated to increase by around 1mm/day compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections that show an anticipated increase in precipitation rate of 10%. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tayvallich (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tayvallich (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 183
Page 184
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tayvallich is projected to rise by between 0.60m and 0.99m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is well above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea level Projections at Tayvallich RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 184
Page 185
Tighnabruaich Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tighnabruich is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.9°C increase in annual average temperature for the Tighnabruich area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tighnabruich is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Tighnabruich area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tighnabruich (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tighnabruich (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 185
Page 186
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tighnabruich is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Tighnabruich RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 186
Page 187
Tiree Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tiree is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 12.5°C by 2080. The UKCP anomaly projections do not have a 25km grid square covering Tiree, so this data is not available for comparison. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tiree is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections do not have a 25km grid square covering Tiree. so this data is not available for comparison. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tiree (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tiree (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 187
Page 188
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tiree is projected to rise by between 0.60m and 0.99m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is well above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 Sea level Projections at Tiree RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 188
Page 189
Tobermory Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tobermory is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.5°C increase in annual average temperature for the Tobermory area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tobermory is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly data suggests an increase in precipitation rate of 11% by 2080. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tobermory (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tobermory (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 189
Page 190
Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tobermory tidal gauge site is projected to rise by between 0.6m and 0.95m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Tobermory tidal guage site RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 190
Page 191
Page 1 of 39 Argyll and Bute Climate Action: a climate change strategy for Argyll and Bute APPENDICES 2-7 Contents Appendix 2: Climate trends and risks for Argyll and Bute discussion ..................................... 2 Overall outlook ............................................................................................................... 2 Hotter, drier summers ..................................................................................................... 3 Warmer, wetter winters ................................................................................................... 7 More severe weather events, and more variability ............................................................. 7 Sea level rise................................................................................................................. 11 Appendix 3: Gaps, Opportunities, Risks, Emissions summary ............................................ 14 Summary of screening Climate Change Duty reports ...................................................... 14 Summary of CPP Public Body climate emissions 2022-23 ............................................... 15 Summary of risk screening from UK Climate Change Risk Assessment ............................ 16 Appendix 4. Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership ............................................ 17 Appendix 5: Outcomes from Regional, National and UN frameworks aligned to CPP crosscutting priorities ....................................................................................................... 18 Appendix 6: How does ABCA work ..................................................................................... 20 Appendix 6.1: Theory of Change..................................................................................... 22 Appendix 6.2: Objectives: Task list from Operational Plan ............................................... 23 Appendix 6.3: Communications Plan ............................................................................. 30 Appendix 7: Bibliography................................................................................................... 33 Page 191
Page 192
Page 2 of 39 Appendix 2: Climate trends and risks for Argyll and Bute discussion There are some common challenges across the region but there is also significant variation within and between communities, places and landscapes. We need to build up a thorough understanding of the risks and opportunities that climate change presents to Argyll and Bute, and to identify action both to modify activity that contributes to climate change, and to adapt to impacts of unavoidable climate change both now and into the future. Throughout, we need to ensure that communities are engaged in the process and that local knowledge and experience is valued and used to guide the development of the initiative. We need to make Argyll climate ready, both for today’s climate and for the climate of the future: to reduce emissions to limit the extent of further climate change, to adapt to the impacts of unavoidable climate change, and to engage across communities to ensure a socially just transition to a low carbon future. The region’s characterising features of high diversity, low population density, long coastlines, largely rural small, isolated and ageing communities and long distances all impact on considerations of what “good” climate action means for Argyll and Bute. However, we also have urban considerations with our largest single centre of population being Helensburgh, and other important settlements with urban issues but rural supply chains and correspondingly long and vulnerable transport and other communications links. Overall outlook In short, the outlook for Argyll and Bute is overall increasing temperatures, with • Hotter, drier summers • Warmer, wetter winters • More severe weather events, and more variability • Sea level rise and storm surge Year on year, records for global temperatures and extreme weather events are being broken. Notwithstanding the cold and wet summer of 2024, over the next twenty five years in Scotland, summers are likely to be 7% drier and winters 7% wetter, with 25% increase in intense rainfall events, and sea level rise up to 18cm compared to the beginning of the century1. We see the use of terms such as “likely”, “projected and “estimated”: we have to work with the limitations of information that we have available from a wide range of sources, and in addition some earlier climate predictions have had to be revised as the effects of climate change have started to make impacts more quickly and more locally than previously anticipated, and also because despite massive strides in reducing carbon emissions from a range of activities, overall global emissions have continued to rise. Over the longer term, these trends are even greater: the graph below presents an actual average annual temperature rise of over 1 degree centigrade over the past 60 years, while the graph below that shows the projected increase under our current rate of carbon emissions over the next 60 years, as well as also incorporating the actual observed data as presented in the first graph: 1 A baseline of 1981-2000 is used by UK Climate Projections/Met Office Page 192
Page 193
Page 3 of 39 Overall increasing temperatures: Average annual temperature in Argyll & Bute 1960-2022 Projected temperature increase under high carbon emissions scenario to 2080 Hotter, drier summers Individual seasons vary and the cold and wet summer 2024 is in stark contrast to the hot, dry conditions prevailing in recent summers. Below we see summer temperatures for the overall Argyll River Basin area, which approximates closely to the overall Argyll and Bute area, with observed data and projected rise combined. Below for comparison is a further graph using one representative location, Oban. Further climate projections specific to a representative set of 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017 Average temperature in Argyll & Bute 1960-2022 (°C) 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 Projected average temperature in Argyll & Bute RCP 8.5 (°C) -absolute values Page 193
Page 194
Page 4 of 39 settlements across Argyll & Bute are in preparation for inclusion in the appendix, but despite major differences in day to day weather between different settlements, the differences in overall climate trends on a settlement-by-settlement basis are too small to be well represented in this format. In terms of the “drier” part, below are average summer precipitation rates for Argyll River Basin followed by Oban, both indicating downward trends. 3 4 5 6 7 Argyll River Basin summer average precipitation rate from 1981 -2080 (mm/day) Page 194
Page 195
Page 5 of 39 While temperature and precipitation projections indicate trends, another important consideration is minimum night time temperatures in summertime. The reason for this is that when there is less opportunity for buildings and paved surfaces in particular to cool down, the phenomenon of heat stress, particularly in vulnerable people, rises considerably. There is a strong link between heat stress and summer mortalities which are a growing trend particularly further south in the UK and Europe as temperatures increase with climate change, and a counterpart to the better known phenomenon of winter deaths due to cold and poorly heated and insulated housing. The James Hutton Institute’s Climate Data Visualisation tool2 is an excellent resource to illustrate potential climate change impacts, including heat stress. The Person Heat Stress Indicator is the count of the number of days per year when the maximum temperature is over 32°C, which is considered an amount of heat at which people may experience heat stress. Although in Argyll this may feel a long way off, we still see some areas going from zero days in 2024 to 6 days my the end of the 2070s passing this threshold: 2 Agrometeorological Indicators | The James Hutton Institute 3 4 5 6 7 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 2053 2057 2061 2065 2069 2073 2077 Summer average precipitation rate at Oban from 1981 - 2080 (mm/day) Page 195
Page 196
Page 6 of 39 At present, for Argyll this is best presented as the “tropical nights” in Met Office terminology3. This is when at no point in a 24 hour period does the temperature drop below 20 degrees centigrade. Currently Argyll does not meet this threshold, but some recent research indicates that a rise of just 1°C above usual summer night-time temperatures could be linked to an increase in the risk of deaths from cardiovascular disease in some vulnerable groups4. This is inconclusive and not based on Scottish data but this remains an area to watch whereas discomfort and disruption to sleep on hot nights is well understood. Scenarios from further south point towards what we can expect in future, such as the example provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) for excess mortality in England and Wales during the hot summer (June to August) of 2022 which included five “heat- periods”, or days when the mean Central England Temperature is greater than 20°C. Over the five heat-periods, deaths were 6.2% above the five year average, with this peaking to 10.4% over the second heat-period (10 to 25 July)5. Below we see total annual rainfall in Argyll and Bute over the past 60 years, while the graph below that shows the picture in terms of the steady increase in intensity of rainfall over the past 60 years and into the next, again under the high carbon emissions scenario that we need to work with based on available information and progress globally in limiting our greenhouse gas emissions to date. 3 Annual Count of Tropical Nights - Projections (12km) | The Met Office climate data portal 4 Warmer summer nocturnal surface air temperatures and cardiovascular disease death risk: a population-based study | BMJ Open 5 Excess mortality during heat-periods - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) Page 196
Page 197
Page 7 of 39 Warmer, wetter winters In contrast to the trend for hotter, drier summers, in winter observed data and projections both point to trends to warmer, wetter winters with fewer days of frost under the overall trend for increasing temperatures. Once again, observed data and projections for Argyll River Basin are followed by more specific data and projections for Oban: More severe weather events, and more variability However, we can also expect increases in severity and frequency of severe weather events. Damage and disruption from flooding and landslides is one example: the heavy rain in early October 2023 caused £15m damage to infrastructure (mainly roads & bridges) in parts of Argyll and Bute and was not even one of the series of named national storms that autumn. While we have some sophisticated modelling of future temperature and precipitation, wind is harder to model and the Met Office climate change centre states that 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 2053 2057 2061 2065 2069 2073 2077 Argyll River Basin average winter mean air temperatures from 1981 -2080 (°C) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 2053 2057 2061 2065 2069 2073 2077 Winter average mean air temperature at Oban from 1981 - 2080 (°C) Page 197
Page 198
Page 8 of 39 Due to the lack of any observed trends, there haven’t been any studies so far which provide a link between changes in UK storminess and climate change. For example, the all-time record number of storms over the British Isles in winter 2013/14 couldn’t be linked to human-induced warming. In future, most climate projections indicate that winter windstorms will increase slightly in number and intensity over the UK i.e. more winter storms, including disproportionately more severe storms, are projected to cross the UK. However, this has medium confidence because a few climate models indicate differently6. In addition, the Met Office also notes that Winds associated with major storm events can be some of the most damaging and disruptive events for the UK with implications for property, power networks, road and rail transport and aviation. Calm periods with little wind, particularly over prolonged periods, can affect air quality whilst winds from a particular direction can be a critical factor in the spread of pathogens. For example, winds blowing in from continental Europe during winter can lead to substantially colder and often drier weather7. Wind direction can be of especial importance for Argyll and Bute due to the importance of marine transport in the area, with anecdotal evidence from ferry and marine tourism operators on the significance of wind direction events disrupting services and impacting upon coastal infrastructure, in addition to householders’ accounts of damage to roofs due to strong winds from unusual directions. The frequency of storm events over 2023-24 and the significance of wind as in the diagram below in these also point to the likelihood of more potential damage and disruption from wind although not all of these storms affected Argyll and Bute to the same extent, and as noted above the severe weather from 7 October 2023 was not actually a named storm. 6 UK and Global extreme events – Wind storms - Met Office 7 ukcp18-fact-sheet-wind_march21.pdf (metoffice.gov.uk) Page 198
Page 199
Page 9 of 39 Historic and projected rainfall intensity 1960-2080 An alternative way of presenting intensity of rainfall is the incidence of occasions with rainfall of 20mm or greater per hour. The graph below shows historic and projected incidence of intense rainfall events, noting that “future changes in extreme rainfall events could be almost 10 times more frequent in Northwest Scotland in 2080 compared to the 1980s, whilst in the south of the UK the value is closer to three times more frequent.”8 8 New research shows increasing frequency of extreme rain - Met Office 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 Projected precipitation rate for Argyll & Bute RCP 8.5 (mm/day) -absolute values Page 199
Page 200
Page 10 of 39 Current indications are that Argyll and Bute as a region is unlikely to suffer water scarcity in coming decades compared to other parts of Scotland and the UK, although this does not rule out local impacts and potential infrastructure damage, as indicated in Scottish Water’s 2024 climate change strategy9. However, at local level there have been instances of scarcity including occasional closure of the Crinan Canal. When there are issues relating to sufficiency or quantity with public mains water supplies, Scottish Water take steps to ensure safe drinking water is available to its users. This may include providing bottled water or bowsers. For private water supplies the situation is different and the responsibility lies with the users of the supply or any third party who provides or manages the supply by contract. In some circumstances the Council may be able to provide assistance when supplies run dry or are at serious risk of doing so. Assistance is usually limited to the provision of an emergency supply of bottled water for drinking to overcome the immediate need. Private water supplies may also be at higher risk of contamination after storm and flood events. About one third of the population of Argyll and Bute has a private water supply, which is ten times the Scottish average. This presents an Argyll-specific climate risk as private water supplies may be more vulnerable to either interruption or contamination in periods of low rainfall or drought. A recent illustration of this is apparent from SEPA’s June 2023 summary of water scarcity. While parts of Argyll suffered less scarcity than anywhere else in Scotland, parts of Kintyre and the islands were still at “Alert” level with Mull, Col and Tiree at Moderate (or 4 out of 5 on the scarcity scale from “Normal” to “Significant”)10. 9 290224ScottishWaterAdaptationPlan.pdf 10 20230630-water-scarcity-report-final.pdf (web-cdn.org) Page 200
Page 201
Page 11 of 39 Sea level rise Sea level rise, both absolute and from storm surges, is also a concern. 80% of the population of Argyll and Bute lives within 1km of the coast (97% within 10km of coast), and we have over 200km of road within 25m of the sea (at high tide), especially Cowal & Bute. Replacement costs of sea defences for this stretch were estimated at £300m in 2015 prices. This would be equivalent to approximately £420m today due to inflation alone, with the actual figure likely significantly greater due to increased materials costs and more severe climatic conditions predicted. The graphs below show projected sea level rise for two sites in Argyll, Tobermory and Port Ellen, to the end of the century under a range of carbon emission scenarios. The upper two lines, green and blue, represent the most likely outcomes as these are based on current and historical global emissions trends. The difference between the two is that the green line, suggesting 0.6m rise at the end of the century, is the mid range of the high emissions scenario whereas the blue line, at over 0.9m, represents what is described as the “upper end allowance” to take into Page 201
Page 202
Page 12 of 39 account the most severe impact projections, drawn from UK Government guidance on data interpretation to inform coastal flood planning11: 11 Flood and coastal risk projects, schemes and strategies: climate change allowances - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Rise Projections at Tobermory tidal guage site (m) RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 (95th) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Rise projections Port Ellen tidal guage site (m) RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 202
Page 203
Page 13 of 39 To help with calibration, Nature Scot’s 2017 assessment of impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges due to climate change in the Firth of Clyde offers a projection of 0.47m over the same period12. This is also under the RCP 8.5 scenario but is based on the UK Climate Projections from 2009 (UKCP09) which was the latest data available at the time of publication as opposed to the UKCP18 data now available. This paper also notes that “Projected future changes in storm surge were very small (millimetres) compared to those of sea-level rise (tens of centimetres) and amount to 1% of the anticipated sea-level rise. This suggests that the contribution of storm surges to sea level will change little with climate change in this area.” The Mat Office UKCP18 fact sheet on sea level rise and storm surge13 indicated likewise that significant increase in storm surges is unlikely, but an important point here is that the impact of storm surges can already be significant and increasing sea levels will make these impacts correspondingly greater. The combined Highland and Argyll flood risk management plan estimates 15,000 homes at risk of flooding (Highland as well as Argyll) increasing to 38,000 by the 2080s due to climate change. 12 SNH Commissioned Report 891: Impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges due to climate change in the Firth of Clyde (nature.scot) 13 ukcp18-fact-sheet-sea-level-rise-and-storm-surge.pdf (metoffice.gov.uk) Page 203
Page 204
Page 14 of 39 Appendix 3: Gaps, Opportunities, Risks, Emissions summary Summary of screening Climate Change Duty reports Argyll and Bute Climate Action: Summary of Opportunities from Community Planning Partners' published Climate Change Duty reports and stakeholder meetings Carbon Reduction Plan Climate Adaptation Plan Climate Duty Report: Mitigation section completed Climate Duty Report: Adaptation section completed Climate Duty Report: Procurement section completed Climate Duty Report: Wider Influence section complete Scope 1 Scope 2 Scope 3 Total emissions Emissions trend from baseline Emissions change from baseline Geography Includes - formal (from Climate Duty reports and also published climate strategies) Opportunities identified by stakeholders - informal, including comments from outside these organisations Measure for CPP Measure for CPP Measure for CPP Y N Y N Y Y 8700 3780 14000 26500 Down Down 33% A&B Footprint, decarbonisation plan with monthly reporting to Climate Change Board, no formal adaptation strategy but planned and major transport/flood/EP activity. Waste face obstacles beyond single organisation's control and waste Strongly engaged via A&BC Climate Board, CPP lead, but Council remit extremely wide and need further engagement in some areas. Integrate eg with Area Plans but avoid duplication eg with Crosscutting Climate Board Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support LHEES Collaboration Y N Y N A&B Footprint, campus CMPs, proposals to integrate sustainability in all courses. Less breakdown of Argyll v UHI as a whole: developing the process of collating data with other Academic Partners to improve and refine processes Skills development especially in light of green skills shortages in area; overall C literacy and resilience training, poverty, resilience, equality, accessibility, housing, community wealth building. Anecdotally, Green Skills Development Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Y Y Y Y 19620 6211 731 26560 Down Down 25% Highland and A&B Via NHSH and Living Well Partnership. CMP. Has done NHS Scotland Climate Change Risk Assessment to inform development of adaptation plan over 2024. Business continuity plans for clinical waste collection and logistics & supply chain. Member of H & I Local Resilience Partnership. Community wealth building, food strategy, climate action for mental health, active travel. In addition to wellbeing benefits, other partners could potentially benefit from greater collaboration on risk assessment and procurement. PHS health Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Policy Input Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Y Y Y N 147 165 183 495 Down Down 67% H&I,A&B Future grants carbon dependent. Climate risk in some project business cases. Intent to use AS Capability Framework, employer and stakeholder engagement on resilience, rep to join AS Programme Board. Procurement Local energy, grid, value and supply chains, skills development, business resilience. Progress in procurement is again noted and may be potential to explore how best to maximise procurement Grid and Telecomms Infrastructure Green Skills Development Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Y Y Y Y Y Y 123 73 47 243 Down Down 37% Multiple LA Areas LCLIP, Risk Assessment. Solar, AHSP, EV and charging infrastructure. Collaborative procurement and accessible to SMEs. C and environmental factors in most contracts. Nature based approaches; NP comparable to CPP for coalition building; RA commissioning. Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Grid and Telecomms Infrastructure Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support N Y Y Y N 26557 9929 2874 39360 Down Down 43% Scotland Layered risk assessment and resilience plans under rolling review with challenge process; explicit link with CPPs. Adaptation plan for development in 2024. Sustainable procurement policy and WLC. Peer validation with SFRS Land management (wildfire & flooding), community and business resilience linked to CPP Prevention agenda, addressing barriers to fleet decarbonisation including charging infrastructure. Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Grid and Telecomms Infrastructure Y Y Y Y N 23500 930 1150 25600 Down Down 9% Scotland Procurement - supply chain sustainability, accessibility to SMEs, Climate Change Risk Assessment & Adaptation Plan completed 2022. Member Scottish Resilience Group. As with other blue light services in CPP. Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Grid and Telecomms Infrastructure Y Y Y Y Y 372 195 738 1300 Down Down 78% Scotland Big reduction partly through removal of energy consumption from tenants' Investment Property Portfolio. Major risk assessment of extreme weather 2017. Second assessment to research high growth business sectors potentially at greatest risk and/or provide the greatest Sustainable supply chains & footprinting; 2017 RA on property & operations; Net Zero Showcase; register of community assets (Ayrshire). Grid capacity limitations present a major barrier to further development of a circular economy. Grid and Telecomms Infrastructure Green Skills Development Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Y Y Y Y Y N 10837 3632 777 15246 Down Down 35% Scotland CL training for procurement staff. Flooding assessed as main climate risk, flood risk assessments across estate. Large scale civil works not deemed possible or appropriate for SFRS. Asset investment backlog of £500m. SFRS proposes to increase and standardise equipment and Land management (wildfire & flooding), community and business resilience linked to CPP Prevention agenda, addressing barriers to fleet decarbonisation including charging infrastructure. Fleet emissions as with other emergency services Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Grid and Telecomms Infrastructure Y Y Y Y Y Y 352 216 346 915 Down Down 42% Scotland Comprehensive PBD report, C literacy for procurers, sustainability in contract management Nature based solutions, natural capital, Climate & nature emergency, land management, agriculture links, invasive species. Underacknowledged extent of land management in C emissions. Input to wide Economic Assessment Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Green Skills Development Y Y Y Y Y 395 510 837 1742 Down Down 47% Scotland Flood warning and water scarcity functions. Risk management, emergency and business continuity plans. Net zero Direct Emissions due 2025. Concept of regenerative in procurement plans. Working with suppliers Due to meet Aug Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Economic Assessment Y Y Y Y 158 198 1682 2038 Down Down 47% Scotland No adaptation plan or risk assessment yet. First PBD report 2019 and emissions figures still bedding in. Planning to include adaptation in elearning. Green Skills Workforce Academy. Work with SG sustainable procurement tools. Climate risk assessment. Potential for green skills training. To meet August Green Skills Development Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support N N N Y N [blank] 584 106 690 Down Down 60% Scotland No figure for Scope 1 emissions. Sustainability is now routinely part of procurement policies for capital investment. Adaptation at very early stage mostly blank. Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Focus on fewer than 3 Y Y Y Y Y N 447 2466 291 3204 Down Down 68% Glas Lanark Inverclyde Member of Climate Ready Clyde. Starting work on full climate strategy. Regular monitoring of estate for climate risk. Any appropriate contract over £50k will specifically assess how an appointed contractor is moving towards Net Operations within Argyll and Bute are very limited but of strategic importance for connectivity especially with respect to equalities. Opportunity to collaborate on adaptation work in common with Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Focus on fewer than 3 Y N Y N 1 6 7 Down Down 56% H&I, A&B No Scope 1 emissions . Adaptation via risk management strategy, mainly relating to reducing need for travel if severe weather. Normal public procurement sustainability rules. No Wider Influence reported but note that part of HITRANS Reducing need to travel. Sustainable and active travel is often viewed as low importance in Argyll and Bute due to distances between settlements, but its importance within settlements can be Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Grid and Telecomms Infrastructure Y Y Y N 79 203 617 899 Down Down 73% Scotland Significant fluctuations in emissions reporting due to changing reporting requirements. Large increase in Scope 3 in common with most other organisations, including factoring in commuting and moving to new post covid BAU. Carbon literacy and climate resilience for tourism operators, although many already under Green Tourism/Green Key training and accreditation. Potential synergies between developing eg cycling Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Grid and Telecomms Infrastructure 40000 28154 6600 74850 Down Down 31% UK Not covered by Scottish Public Body Climate Duty reporting requirements. Skills development, poverty, resilience, equality, accessibility, housing, community wealth building Green Skills Development Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Focus on fewer than 3 Y Y Y N 0.5 3 12 15 Down Down 23% Scotland Risk registers (internal documents) include climate related risks. Engaging consultants to support carbon reduction plan. Procurement via Scottish Government SLA. Contact not yet made. Suggestions from other stakeholders include resilience training appropriate to crofters in Argyll. Explore potential for forest crofts to help address trends of depopulation and ageing population. Carbon Literacy/Resilienc e Training Economic Assessment Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support N N Y Y N Y 40 45 213 298 Up Up 12% Scotland Responsible for forestry policy, support and regulations: for sustainable management and expansion of forests and woodlands. First year of reporting is 2021-22.SF core mission to enable landowners to sequester C. No climate risk register, but some climate integrated into strategic risk register incl sequestration failure. No sustainable procurement plan yet but intention to set baseline. Significant Wider Influence to policy and advisory role: Carbon Markets, Decarbonisation of Sector, Decarbonisation of Timber Transport, Tree Health. Split between SF/FLS duties not always well understood. Due to SF national policy and regulation emphasis, some consider FLS remit is closer to Argyll and Bute CPP remit. Importance of retaining some commercial forestry. C methodology (40 yr cycles) challenged by some. Input on sustainable forest management and expansion. Input on carbon markets. Input on decarbonisation of sector and timber transport. Economic Assessment Green Skills Development Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Y Y Y Y Y 2352 511 556 3418 Down Down 9% Scotland Responsible for managing Scotland's national forests and land: to enhance biodiversity, support tourism and increase access to green spaces, and provide timber supplies. First year of reporting is 2021-22. National Level Climate Change Risk Assessment: landslide, pest & disease, drought (in East), higher grazing impacts from warmer winters, species/biodiversity loss, flooding. A82 and RABT cited as flagship adaptation projects. Review corporate risk register with climate lens. Extensive sustainable procurement policy with new strategy in process. Market timber according to carbon hierarchy in Timber Marketing Framework. Renewables programme, working collaboratively with energy development partners in a landlord capacity to facilitate renewable infrastructure on Scottish Ministers land. Land management (wildfire & flooding in addition to biodiversity). Access to green spaces. Access to land for energy, social enterprise, housing, and circular economy opportunities from local processing, suggested by some stakeholders. Economic Assessment Green Skills Development Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Scotland Contact established, due to meet in August Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Economic Assessment Y Y Y Y Y Y 39000 85000 93000 217000 Down Down 53% Scotland Future demand water assessment; surveying peatland restoration and woodlands for water quality and carbon sequestration potential; Sustainable land management, and natural capital assessment of land holdings; Decarbonisation and resilience in the supply chain; Sewer flood risk mapping; sea level rise & coastal erosion; reduce business mileage; work with other public bodies to develop infrastructure for zero emission vehicles (electric/hydrogen); develop design library with proven and standard low emission designs; work with supply chain to identify top 10 emission intensive materials and promote alternatives; develop low emissions skills; work with partners to understand water implications of developing hydrogen power; work with customers and community to reduce water use, leakage, blockages, spills; identify and implement partnership to develop renewables; greening of grid. Worked with Dynamic Coast Updating risk assessments, water issues for resilience training for businesses and communities. Scottish Water also identified 4 overarching Interdependent Risks on their operational resilience: • Roads and Access: Extreme weather events such as flooding or storms blocking access to sites, making emergency response more difficult. • Power Outage: Power outage caused by storms, flooding, drought or high temperatures. • Telecoms: Loss of ICT or telecoms service resulting from storms or temperature extremes. • Supply Chains: Loss of access to eg chemicals, replacement parts and contracted maintenance teams resulting from inability to provide service as a result of storm or flood damage or extremes in temperature limiting production capacity. Risk Assessment Collaboration/Tec hnical Support Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Economic Assessment Average reduction 41% Page 204
Page 205
Page 15 of 39 Summary of CPP Public Body climate emissions 2022-23 Argyll and Bute Climate Action: Summary of CPP Public Body Climate emissions From partners covered by Climate Duty reporting requirements CPP Member Scope 1 Scope 2 Scope 3 Total emissions Emissions trend from baseline Emissions change from baseline Geography Note Scope 1: direct emissions from sources that the organisation owns or controls directly Scope 2: Indirect emissions and purchased energy Everything outside Scope 1 and 2. Also value and supply chain, waste, commuting and home working All bodies have had fluctuations including from changing reporting requirements Baseline years vary and all bodies have benefited from decarbonisation of electricity Argyll and Bute Council 8700 3780 14000 26500 Down Down 33% A&B UHI Argyll A&B Health and Social Care Partnership/NHS Highland 19620 6211 731 26560 Down Down 25% Highland and A&B Highlands and Islands Enterprise 147 165 183 495 Down Down 67% H&I,A&B Loch Lomond & Trossachs National Park 123 73 47 243 Down Down 37% Multiple LA Areas Police Scotland 26557 9929 2874 39360 Down Down 43% Scotland Scottish Ambulance Service 23500 930 1150 25600 Down Down 9% Scotland Scottish Enterprise 372 195 738 1300 Down Down 78% Scotland Scottish Fire and Rescue Service 10837 3632 777 15246 Down Down 35% Scotland NatureScot 352 216 346 915 Down Down 42% Scotland SEPA 395 510 837 1742 Down Down 47% Scotland Skills Development Scotland 158 198 1682 2038 Down Down 47% Scotland SportScotland [blank] 584 106 690 Down Down 60% Scotland Strathclyde Partnership for Transport 447 2466 291 3204 Down Down 68% Clyde HITRANS 1 6 7 Down Down 56% H&I, A&B VisitScotland 79 203 617 899 Down Down 73% Scotland Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) 40000 28154 6600 74850 Down Down 31% UK Crofting Commission 0.5 3 12 15 Down Down 23% Scotland Forestry Commission (Scottish Forestry) 40 45 213 298 Up Up 12% Scotland Forestry Commission (Forest & Land Scotland) 2352 511 556 3418 Down Down 9% Scotland CALMAC - CMAL Scotland Scottish Water 39000 85000 93000 217000 Down Down 53% Scotland Average reduction 41% Page 205
Page 206
Page 16 of 39 Summary of risk screening from UK Climate Change Risk Assessment UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: Scoping Risks and Opportunities for CPP - project officer scoping Risk/Opportunity Category Description In/Out Rationale UKCCRA Score CPP Outcome I Infrastructure Risk I1. Infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) Cascading failures In Argyll & Bute's extended transprt and other infrastructure links are highly vulnerable and multiple other risks flow from these More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk I2. Infrastructure services River and surface water flooding In These are already known major risks in some of our largest settlements More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk I3. Infrastructure services Coastal flooding and erosion In High percentage of population and transport links close to sea More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk I4. Bridges and pipelines Flooding and erosion In Several strategic links with multiple other risks associated if these are broken More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk I5. Transport networks Slope and embankment failure In An ongoing issue eg Rest & Be Thankful More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk I12. Transport High and low temperatures, high winds, lightning In Water transport inparticular is highly affected by wnd More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk I13. Digital High and low temperatures, high winds, lightning In Digital infrastructure is already vulnerable Further investigation Transport & Infrastructure B Business and Industry Risk B1: Flooding of business sites Increase in flood risk In Known issue in multiple areas More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk B2: Coastal business locations and infrastructure Coastal flooding, extreme weather, erosion, and sea level rise In Known issue in multiple areas More action needed Transport & Infrastructure Risk B5: Employee productivity in businesses through working environments and infrastructure Infrastructure disruption and higher temperatures in working environments In Often underacknowledged as a risk in other areas Further investigation Housing Risk B6: Disruption to business supply chains and distribution networks Extreme weather In Transport & other links already extended & vulnerable, possible opportunities from pooling resources, early warning systems More action needed Transport & Infrastructure H Health, Communities, and the Built Environment Risk H1. Health and wellbeing High temperatures In Likely to have disporoprortionate effects on most vulnerable More action needed Housing Risk H3. People, communities, and buildings Flooding In Already a known issue More action needed Housing Risk H4. Viability of coastal communities Sea level rise In Especially when combined with surface water and storm surge More action needed Housing Risk H5. Building fabric Moisture, wind and driving rain In Already a known issue Further investigation Housing Risk H7. Health and wellbeing Changes in indoor and outdoor air quality In Potentially also "Housing" due to incidence of damp in housing Further investigation Wellbeing Risk H8. Health Vector-borne disease In Particularly with some species moving further north and impact of flooding Further investigation Wellbeing Risk H9. Food safety and food security Higher temperatures (food safety) and extreme weather (food security) In Knock on effects of weather on transport infrastructure Further investigation Wellbeing Risk H11. Cultural heritage Changes in temperature, precipitation, groundwater, land, ocean, and coastal change Out Is this a priority area for CPP partners? More action needed Wellbeing Risk H12. Health and social care delivery Extreme weather In More action needed Wellbeing Risk H13. Delivery of education and prison services Extreme weather In More action needed Wellbeing Risk & Opportunity H6. Household energy demand Summer and winter temperature changes In More action needed Housing N Natural Assets Risk N1. Terrestrial species and habitats Changing climatic conditions and extreme events, including temperature change, water scarcity, wildfire, flooding, wind, and altered hydrology (including water scarcity, flooding and saline intrusion) In Very wide list and some eg wildfire, flooding likely to be of more immediate signficance than eg water scarcity More action needed Wellbeing Risk N2. Terrestrial species and habitats Pests, pathogens, and invasive species In Wellbeing issue in addition to impact on natural assets eg forestry. No CPP outcome for natural assets, so "Community wellbeing" is taken to include non human communities More action needed Wellbeing Risk N4. Soils Changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness In More action needed Wellbeing Risk N8. Forestry Pests, pathogens, and invasive species In Health and wellbeing issue in addition to impact on natural assets eg forestry More action needed Wellbeing Risk N11. Freshwater species and habitats Changing climatic conditions and extreme events, including higher water temperatures, flooding, water scarcity and phenological shifts In Phenological - how events innatueal cycles are impacted by climate and other change More action needed Wellbeing Risk N12. Freshwater species and habitats Pests, pathogens, and invasive species In More action needed Wellbeing Risk & Opportunity N5. Natural carbon stores, carbon sequestration and GHG emissions Changing climatic conditions, including temperature change and water scarcity In Potential opportunity for Argyll & Bute due to extent of forest and peatland More action needed Wellbeing Risk & Opportunity N6. Agricultural and forestry productivity Extreme events and changing climatic conditions (including temperature change, water scarcity, wildfire, flooding, coastal erosion, wind) In Importance of agriculture and forestry to Argyll & Bute's economy More action needed Wellbeing Risk & Opportunity 17. Coastal species and habitats Coastal flooding, erosion, and climate factors In More action needed Wellbeing Risk & Opportunity 18. Natural heritage and landscape character Climate change In Valuing natural assets Further investigation Wellbeing I International dimensions Risk ID1. UK food availability, safety, and quality Decreasing yields from rising temperatures, water scarcity and ocean changes globally In More action needed Wellbeing Proposed to scope Out I Infrastructure Risk I6. Hydroelectric generation Low or high river flows High/low flow more of a CPP concern in contrext of flooding or water scarcity: hydro element more specific to energy companies but potential future issue if more community hydro Further investigation Risk I7. Subterranean and surface infrastructure Subsidence Arguably not as as a separate issue to slope and embankment failure Further investigation Risk I8. Public water supplies Reduced water availability UK Climate Projections suggest more of a concern for E Scotland and other parts of UK; Scottish Water proactive on this in their Climate Duty reports Sustain current action Risk I9. Energy generation Reduced water availability As with Hydroelectricity and Public Water Supplies above Watching brief Risk I10. Energy High and low temperatures, high winds, lightning Limited capacity within CPP to address this although potentially affected by it Further investigation Risk I11. Offshore infrastructure Storms and high waves Limited capacity within CPP to address this, not port and other coastal infrastructure Sustain current action B Business and Industry Risk B3: Business production processes Water scarcity Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this Further investigation Risk B4: Business access to finance, investment, and insurance, including access to capital Extreme weather Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this Sustain current action Opportunity B7: Changes in demand for goods and services Long term climate change Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this Further investigation H Health, Communities, and the Built Environment Risk H10. Health Poor water quality and household water supply Not aware of this as a current issue in Argyll & Bute but possible impact on private water supplies Further investigation Opportunity H2. Health and wellbeing High temperatures Screening "Out" as "Opportunity" keep "In" as a "Risk" Further investigation N Natural Assets Risk N10. Aquifers and agricultural land Saltwater intrusion Watching brief Opportunity N3. Terrestrial species and habitats New species colonisations There may be some opportunities arising but individual organisations rather than CPP are better placed Further investigation Opportunity 9. Agricultural and forestry productivity New/alternative species becoming suitable There may be some opportunities arising but individual organisations rather than CPP are better placed Further investigation Opportunity N13. Freshwater species and habitats New species colonisations There may be some opportunities arising but individual organisations rather than CPP are better placed Sustain current action Risk N14. Marine species, habitats, and fisheries Changing climatic conditions, including ocean acidification and higher water temperatures Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this More action needed Opportunity N15. Marine species, habitats, and fisheries Changing climatic conditions There may be some opportunities arising but individual organisations rather than CPP are better placed Further investigation Risk N16. Marine species, habitats, and fisheries Pests, pathogens, and invasive species Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this More action needed I International dimensions Risk ID4. The UK’s international interests and responsibilities International violent conflict resulting from climate change overseas Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this More action needed Risk ID5. Changes to international governance affecting the UK Reduced international collective governance due to climate change and responses to it Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this More action needed Risk ID7. International trade routes Climate hazards affecting supply chains Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this More action needed Risk ID8. Economic loss to the UK Climate driven resource governance pressures, financial exposure Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this Sustain current action Risk ID9. Introduction of infectious diseases to the UK from abroad Increase in vector borne diseases due to climate change Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this, as opposed to vector borne disease under "Health" above More action needed Risk ID10. Risk multiplication to the UK Interactions and cascades of named risks across systems and geographies Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this More action needed Risk & Opportunity ID3. Migration to the UK and effects on the UK’s interests overseas Climate-related international human mobility Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this Watching brief Opportunity ID2. UK food availability and exports Increases in productivity and areas suitable for agriculture overseas Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this Watching brief ID6. Increased trade for the UK Arctic ice melt opening up new trading routes Limited capacity within CPP to address or influence this Watching brief Page 206
Page 207
Page 17 of 39 Appendix 4. Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership is the group of organisations and community representatives working together to achieve improvements across the three outcomes of Housing, Transport Infrastructure and Community Wellbeing in ways which promote prevention, reduce inequalities and build community capacity. Community Planning Partnerships have a statutory obligation to create a 10-year Outcomes Improvement Plan under the provisions of the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015. The Argyll and Bute Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024-2034 has been developed through community engagement as the area emerges from a global pandemic, and deals with a cost of living crisis and the increasing impacts of climate change. The Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024-2034 focusses on improving the outcomes of Transport, Housing and Community Wellbeing. The Community Planning Partnership established a Climate Group in late 2021 in order to increase understanding of the facts and the urgency of addressing climate change within the whole of Argyll & Bute and promote actions for adaptation and mitigation for a just and equitable transition to a net zero economy. In support of this, the Community Planning Partnership has funded a Project Manager, employed by ACT, to lead development of a Climate Change Strategy and Action plan for the region. to undertake a region-wide climate risk assessment and to develop an integrated set of adaptation, mitigation and engagement actions, presented in a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll & Bute. Page 207
Page 208
Page 18 of 39 Appendix 5: Outcomes from Regional, National and UN frameworks aligned to CPP crosscutting priorities National Performance Framework Scottish National Adaptation Plan (SNAP24) UN Sustainable Development Goals CPP We value, enjoy, protect and enhance our environment. We have thriving and innovative businesses, with quality jobs and fair work for everyone We live in communities that are inclusive, empowered, resilient and safe We have a globally competitive, entrepreneurial, inclusive and sustainable economy. Public Services and Infrastructure: Public services are collaborating in effective, inclusive adaptation action. 7, 9, 11 Transport Infrastructure We value, enjoy, protect and enhance our environment We are healthy and active We live in communities that are inclusive, empowered, resilient and safe. Communities: Communities creating climate- resilient, healthy and equitable places. 2,7,11 Housing We grow up loved, safe and respected so that we realise our full potential We live in communities that are inclusive, empowered, resilient and safe We have a globally competitive, entrepreneurial, inclusive and sustainable economy We are healthy and active We tackle poverty by sharing opportunities, wealth and power more equally. Communities: Communities creating climate- resilient, healthy and equitable places. 1,3,5,10,11 Community Welbeing We value, enjoy, protect and enhance our environment. Nature Connects: Nature connects across our lands, settlements, coasts and seas. 2,6,14,15 Community Wellbeing We have a globally competitive, entrepreneurial, inclusive and sustainable economy We have thriving and innovative businesses, with quality jobs and fair work for everyone We are well educated, skilled and able to contribute to society. Economy, Industry and Business: Economies and industries are adapting and realising opportunities in Scotland’s Just Transition. 2,4,6,8,9,12 Transport Infrastructure, Housing We have a globally competitive, entrepreneurial, inclusive and International: Scotland’s 1,5,10,13,16,17 Transport Infrastructure, Page 208
Page 209
Page 19 of 39 sustainable economy We are open, connected and make a positive contribution internationally We tackle poverty by sharing opportunities, wealth and power more equally. international role supports climate justice and enhanced global action on climate adaptation. Community Wellbeing Page 209
Page 210
Page 20 of 39 Appendix 6: How does ABCA work Under the leadership and guidance of the Community Planning Partnership and sub groups including the Climate Change Working Group and the Argyll & Bute Climate Action Steering Group, the priority for the project is to undertake a region-wide audit & gap analysis to identify current activity, overlaps and gaps; to undertake a region-wide climate risk assessment and to develop an integrated set of adaptation, mitigation and engagement actions, presented in a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll & Bute. Climate risks have been identified as seven groups, with seven main areas for action proposed to address these: The mandate and funding to develop a Climate Change Strategy for Argyll comes from the Community Planning Partnership and reflects the community’s stated priorities of transport infrastructure, housing and community wellbeing. The project is advised by a Steering Group drawn from to the Climate Change Working Group of the Community Planning Partnership. Three guiding principles are • Argyll and Bute communities, places and landscapes are being affected by climate change in different ways. There are likely to be common challenges across the region but there will also be significant variation within and between communities, places and landscapes. • The proposed climate risk and opportunity assessment and follow on mitigation, adaptation planning and implementation must identify region-wide climate risks and opportunities for action and take account of local variations and capacity to adapt. Climate Risks Flooding (water courses and surface water) Heavy rainfall, storms and landslides Temperature change, heatwaves and drought Sea level rise & coastal impacts Wildfires Multi-hazards affecting people, species, habitats Possible other unknowns Areas for Action Infrastructure Policy Influence Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Risk/Economic Assessment Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training Skills Development Other/crosscutting Page 210
Page 211
Page 21 of 39 • All aspects of the initiative including governance and leadership arrangements, identifying climate risks and opportunities and developing mitigation, adaptation and engagement strategies and actions will be carried out in an inclusive and accessible way and reflect on just transition. Priority will be given to ensuring that communities, physical or virtual, are engaged in these processes and that local knowledge and experience is valued and used to guide the development of the initiative. This requires: • Working with everyone: council and other public bodies, businesses and charities and the wider community. • Finding out what is already happening and where there are gaps and greatest risks or indeed opportunities: there is already a lot of positive action on climate change taking place and we need to identify this, to maximise the benefits from working together. This could mean areas or communities that are most vulnerable, or where the consequences of inaction can be greatest. • Making links with existing programmes and initiatives. The Strategy will complement and be complemented by the grassroots approach of the Argyll & Bute Climate Action Hub. This can also help us to establish priorities where the need is greatest or where we can attract resources. The structure has been informed by review of a wide range of existing and in-progress climate programme plans and in particular by Climate Ready Clyde, Climate Ready Aberdeenshire, Highland Adapts and Climate Ready South East Scotland. This is on the basis that Climate Ready Clyde as the pioneering regional approach effectively set the standard for an integrated approach, while Climate Ready Aberdeenshire has drawn upon this but also provides relative brevity and simplicity as requested by partners. Highland Adapts has multiple similarities with the Argyll and Bute geography and economy geography but with a more detailed and longer development period, and Climate Ready South East Scotland although dissimilar in geography and economy is working on a comparable timescale. The work also draws on the shared expertise of the Sustainable Scotland Network as well as benefiting from technical support from Sniffer/Adaptation Scotland. Page 211
Page 212
Page 22 of 39 Appendix 6.1: Theory of Change Page 212
Page 213
Page 23 of 39 Appendix 6.2: Objectives: Task list from Operational Plan 1. Governance, leadership and communication Table 1 Work package 1 tasks, outputs, time allocation and duration Task Outputs Time (days) Duration (month over 24 month project) Comment (items in blue refer to links with parallel Argyll & Bute Community Action Network/Hub project) Identify community leadership and Climate Champions links Set of recognised leads 5 1 - 3 CPP CWG are de facto leads but need to consider whether to formalise this and also role of community champions of all sorts across the region. Link to developing ABCAN Hub work – may inform this to a great extent Liaison with Argyll and Bute Climate Action Steering Group Updates, advice and support, including updated work plan and progress reports 26 1 - 24 Ongoing Develop Argyll and Bute Climate Action Vision and Theory of Change Vision and theory of change document 20 2 – 7 Vision and ToC to SG and CPP CCWG for comment, revised vision agreed Develop Engagement Strategy Engagement Strategy 10 5 (contractor) Developed month 2-4, reviewed monthly thereafter Emphasis on engagement with organisations, and capture community voices and findings from Hub. Develop logo, branding and image Complete branding package 2 5 (contractor) Developed month 2-4 ABCA Argyll & Bute Climate Action as the name use the existing Climate Friendly logo (example as header). Implement Engagement Strategy and Communication outputs e.g. press releases, news stories 50 10 (contractor) 5 - 24 Engagement Strategy item below. Page 213
Page 214
Page 24 of 39 Task Outputs Time (days) Duration (month over 24 month project) Comment (items in blue refer to links with parallel Argyll & Bute Community Action Network/Hub project) update regularly Total 113 (+20 for contractor) 2. Understanding the challenge • Audit & Gap Analysis • Mitigation • Adaptation • Engagement Table 2 Work package 2 tasks, outputs, time allocation and duration Task Outputs Time (days) Duration (month over 24 month project) Comment Undertake region-wide Audit & Gap analysis to identify current activity, overlaps and gaps Report 50 2-10 Predominantly via review of existing A&B climate and associated plans (eg housing, transport, waste) and Climate Public Body Duty reports plus stakeholder meetings. Also informed by intelligence from ABCAN. Develop Mitigation opportunity assessment method Opportunity assessment method 5 4-6 Base upon methods used by CPP partners and identify any opportunities to ensure consistency between them. Easy wins likely already to have been made. Major wins likely to be around land use, and structural and enabling activities eg collaboration, Page 214
Page 215
Page 25 of 39 Task Outputs Time (days) Duration (month over 24 month project) Comment procurement, circular economy Identify adaptation risk and opportunity assessment method Risk and opportunity assessment method 5 4-6 Condensed version based on UK Climate Risk Assessment and Climate Ready Clyde. Call for evidence Evidence of risks and opportunities collated 10 5 – 6 Via stakeholders, published PBD reports and CPP groups but will required wider call in action plan development phase Gather community input and local knowledge Survey Workshops/community engagement 30 6 – 9 Identify action specific to this project that can build upon ABCAN Hub. Also whether CPP partner channels can/should help with survey or if scope to add to other planned community surveys Assessment of risks Workshops to agree risk ranking 15 9 – 12 Tiered approach to build in as many sources as possible from schools & communities to major organisations. Ensure fit with ABCAN work. Seek AS input on risks Economic assessment of risks and opportunities Report 10 (contra ctor) 12 Seek esp Highland Adapts input on this – compare with A&BC/HIE econ assessments of sequestration opportunities, community wealthbuilding work done for CPP. Produce risk and opportunity assessment report and summaries Argyll and Bute-wide risk and opportunity assessment report (or equivalent) Local summaries showing variations 30 11 – 17 Original says “could some of this start earlier to help inform methodology: there should be good evidence from areas who are already in the process of what to expect. There are certainly local variations but Page 215
Page 216
Page 26 of 39 Task Outputs Time (days) Duration (month over 24 month project) Comment among communities/ places/landscapes released on interim basis if local pilots or assessments are running to keep communities engaged in the process substantively there will be core effects and circumstances” Best 2 so far for this process look to be A&BC and NS but call on CWG for other exemplars. Aberdeenshire have also made good use of generic material. Explore opportunities to pilot at ABCAN level Public risk and opportunity assessments report and summaries Published reports (or equivalent) 5 17 As with mapping (next item below) points to a web presence, either ACT web pages or standalone Ongoing collation of evidence to inform risk and opportunity assessment, to include both positive and regressive change 10 17 – 36 Also links well with approaches attempted elsewhere (eg A&B renewables mapping, Highland Adapts). Collaboration with Islay Energy Trust and AS on proposal for participatory mapping following meeting not successful in attracting funding. Total 160 (+ 10 for contrac tor) 3. Planning and implementation Page 216
Page 217
Page 27 of 39 Task Outputs Time allocation (days) Duration (month over 24 month project) Comment Ad hoc input to take advantage of ‘quick win’ opportunities to embed adaptation in planning and decision making. (NPF4 etc). Policies and projects take account of adaptation as opportunities arise 10 1 – 24 Need to flag this with esp CPP CWG as these arise and formalise. CPP Community Wealth Building, Aspiring Places and A&BC refreshing climate plans as examples. Intelligence from ABCAN may inform this. Pilot projects New and existing, to acknowledge and demonstrate the action that is happening. 20 1-24 “New or existing projects which demonstrate methods of mitigation action or adaptation, particularly those which could be replicated across the region” Collaboration with Islay Energy Trust and Sniffer for participatory mapping with an eye to then replicate elsewhere – did not attract funding. Training as below key example, circular economy suggestions starting to come through which could link with CPP Community Wealth Building. Also arts as featured in Engagement item, and Seek Extra Funding. Intelligence from ABCAN may inform this. Mitigation & Adaptation training Deliver webinars and briefings on mitigation and adaptation 20 1 – 18 Good programme of mitigation training (ACT NOW) to build upon. Working with AS/Sniffer to develop Resilience training pilot and review scope to incorporate into ongoing Carbon Literate training. Page 217
Page 218
Page 28 of 39 Task Outputs Time allocation (days) Duration (month over 24 month project) Comment Secure extra funding Develop project briefs, collaborations with partners and complete funding applications 25 6-24 Link to pilot projects and ensure any pilot ideas have costings. Ensure linkage with existing programmes and note emphasis on including arts based approaches Intelligence from ABCAN may inform this. Scope options for planning and implementation Options paper 10 10 – 12 Expect single largest need here to be to how to link with proposals in public body plans, and reporting outwith Public Body Duty reporting requirements. But others too, and need to confirm if this matches CPP expectations. Develop Strategy and Action Plan Argyll and Bute Climate Action regional Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 80 9 – 24 Proposed structure draws principally from Climate Ready Clyde, Aberdeenshire and Edinburgh. Monitoring based on existing reporting and requirements for participating bodies, and compatibility with existing Public Body Reporting framework. total 165 Engagement Strategy • Increase understanding of the facts and the urgency of addressing climate change within the whole of Argyll & Bute and promote actions for adaptation and mitigation for a just and equitable transition to a net zero economy as soon as possible, and before the national targets where possible. • Build understanding, increase awareness and understanding of the climate impacts for Argyll and Bute and ways local communities, businesses and organisations can reduce carbon emissions and adapt to future changes Operational Plan Comment Page 218
Page 219
Page 29 of 39 Develop and implement an Engagement Plan to help people understand the impacts of climate change for Argyll and Bute and what ways local communities, businesses and organisations can reduce carbon emissions and adapt to future changes. Local communities – via Hub? Businesses – known gap although HIE and others may assist. Ongoing request to all to suggest contacts. Use resilience & business continuity rather than “reduce your emissions” as calling card. Organisations – ABCA mainly via CPP and Climate Duties Build shared understanding among Argyll and Bute networks, decision makers and local communities. Providing the means for a 2 way exchange of information on mitigation and adaptation. ABCA as bridge between communities (via Hub) and networks & decision makers (CPP). Keep the messages as simple as possible, with small number of accessible indicators. What should the baseline look like – qualitative and quantitative components? Eg how is climate action mainstreamed into other plans Involve young people in Argyll and Bute’s climate change journey, by promoting local learning linked to the Curriculum for Excellence, such as the EcoSchools programme and Climate Ready Place and Flood Education lesson plans. Hub/ABCAN but how to capture – establish if there are common reporting standards and tools across these strands of activity. Ensure this is included in ACT review of social media use in comms & marketing, including which are appropriate platforms Promote good practice and produce case study examples of successful local climate change activity. Include examples from elsewhere where useful. Include in Strategy but how best to take forward? Link climate change awareness to local events and initiatives. Target specific events for this – eg place planning/community action plans, national days, add value to existing events rather than asking people to attend or organise (and travel to) new ones Explore opportunities to use art and cultural reflections to improve understanding of climate change and to encourage climate action. Good knowledge within ACT on known activity and networks, to help inform best spread Link to Pilot Projects and Secure Extra Funding tasks. Don’t duplicate – this is another Hub activity so focus on adding value. Provide direction to available climate change tools and resources As with promoting good practice above. Already building up a lot of these incl from CPP, A&BC and Sniffer. Also useful to identify when there aren’t the right tools available Page 219
Page 220
Page 30 of 39 Appendix 6.3: Communications Plan November 2024- October 2025 1. Objectives: Raise Awareness: Ensure all stakeholders, including the public, are aware of the Climate Change Strategy and understand the importance of mitigation, adaptation, and engagement. Facilitate Engagement: Encourage active participation from communities across Argyll and Bute, ensuring their voices are heard and integrated into the strategy. Promote Collaboration: Strengthen partnerships within the Community Planning Partnership (CPP) and between communities, local organisations, and the public to foster a unified approach to climate action. Support Local Action: Empower communities to take local action by providing information, tools, and support through Climate Hubs. 2. Target Audiences: Primary Audiences: Community Planning Partnership (CPP) members Secondary Audiences: Residents of Argyll and Bute via Climate Hubs and associated networks Local Community Groups and Leaders Schools and educational institutions Local businesses and industry stakeholders Media (local and regional) Scottish Government and other national bodies 3. Key Messages: Integrated Climate Action: Our approach integrates climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience into a unified strategy, leveraging the CPP’s collective capacity. Holistic and Inclusive: We are committed to inclusivity and accessibility, considering diverse local needs and conditions. Community Empowerment: Climate Hubs and local champions are essential for driving effective, locally relevant climate actions, linked to the priority outcomes of Transport, Housing and Community Wellbeing. Page 220
Page 221
Page 31 of 39 Just Transition: We prioritise fairness and equity, ensuring a socially just transition while building resilience. Synergy for Growth: Climate action supports local economic development, reducing emissions and enhancing quality of life. 4. Channels and Tools: Partnership and Networks: CPP Meetings: Regular updates and strategic planning sessions to ensure alignment and collaboration. Argyll & Bute Climate Action Network (ABCAN) Hubs and Local Champions: to support climate initiatives at the local level. Digital Communication: Website: Develop a dedicated section on the ACT website with resources, updates, and ways to get involved. Social Media: Updates and engagement via ACT channels. Email Newsletters: Regular updates through ACT and ABCAN newsletter, including success stories, upcoming events, and opportunities for involvement. In-Person Engagement: Partner and Community Events: Host workshops, and information sessions in partnership with CPP partners and Climate Hubs to gather input and share progress. Traditional Media: Not sure how much via these approaches, would appreciate a steer Press Releases: updates to local newspapers. Print Materials: Posters, flyers, and brochures (principally an easy-to-read version/summary plus one for young people, plus potentially Gaelic and other languages). 5. Implementation Timeline: Phase 1: Preparation and Launch (Month 1-3 starting November) Finalise communication materials and strategies Launch – public Call for Evidence Continue engagement with Climate Hubs and CPP members. Phase 2: Active Engagement and Awareness Building (Month 2-8) Host/attend community events and workshops. Regularly update digital channels with progress and stories. Begin targeted outreach to specific communities/groups Page 221
Page 222
Page 32 of 39 Develop action plan and pilot project proposals and showcase quick wins. Phase 3: Sustained Engagement and Review (Month 9-12) Continue active engagement through all channels. Review progress and gather feedback. Adjust strategies based on feedback and emerging needs. 6. Evaluation and Feedback: Feedback Loops: Regularly gather input from Climate Hubs, CPP members and wider community. Monitoring & reporting framework as proposed to CCWG Surveys: Conduct pre- and post-engagement surveys to assess changes in awareness and attitudes. 7. Budget Considerations: Digital Tools: Via existing ACT and partner platforms Print Materials: Design, printing, and distribution costs. Event Costs: Venue hire, materials, and refreshments for in-person events. 8. Risks and Mitigation: Low Engagement: Mitigate by using multiple channels and ensuring messaging resonates with local concerns. Misinformation: Address quickly through official channels and clear, consistent communication. Resource Constraints: Prioritise key activities and seek additional funding or partnerships where needed. Page 222
Page 223
Page 33 of 39 Appendix 7: Bibliography Item Author Year URL Aberdeen City Council Climate Change Project Register 2021 - 2025 Aberdeen City Council 2021 Council Climate Change Project Register 2021-2025 Towards a Net Zero and Climate Resilient Council.pdf Aberdeen City Council Climate Change Plan 2021 - 2025 Aberdeen City Council 2021 Climate Change Appendix 1.pdf Aberdeenshire Council Local Climate Impact Profile 2019 - 2022 Aberdeenshire Council 2023 LCLIP 2019 - 2022 - Appendix 1.pdf Argyll and Bute Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategy Argyll & Bute Council 2024 https://www.argyll- bute.gov.uk/sites/default/files /2024- 09/ArgyllandBute_LHEES_Stra tegy_sent%20to%20committ ee%2028TH%20Aug%202024 _v2.pdf Argyll & Bute Local Housing Strategy 2022-2027 Argyll & Bute Council 2022 https://www.argyll- bute.gov.uk/sites/default/files /migrated_files/argyll_bute_lo cal_housing_strategy_2022- 2027.pdf Argyll & the Isles Tourism Factsheet 2019 Visitscotland 2019 argyll-and-the-isles-tourism 2019.pdf Argyll and Bute Biodiversity Compliance Report 2021-23 Argyll & Bute Council 2023 Biodiversity Duty Compliance Report 2021-2024 Argyll and Bute Coast Protection Policy and Strategy Argyll & Bute Council 2015 coast_protection_policy_and_ strategy_- _dec_2014_final_draft_13042 015_environment_developme nt_and_0.pdf Argyll and Bute Community Food Growing Strategy Argyll & Bute Council 2020 cfgstrategy.pdf Argyll and Bute Council Community Benefits Clauses Guidance for Tenderers Argyll & Bute Council 2022 Community Benefit Clauses - Guidance for Tenderers 2022 Argyll and Bute Council Decarbonisation Plan 2022- 2025 Argyll & Bute Council 2022 Decarbonisation Plan 2022 - 2025 Argyll and Bute Council Economic Strategy Refresh, 2024-2034 Argyll & Bute Council 2024 Microsoft Word - ARGYLL AND BUTE COUNCIL’S ECONOMIC STRATEGY REFRESH 2024- 2034 Argyll and Bute Council Procurement Strategy 2022/25 Argyll & Bute Council 2022 Appendix 1 - Draft 2022-25 Procurement Strategy and Sustainable Proc Policy.pdf Argyll and Bute Council Procurement Strategy Annual Review 2024/2025 Argyll & Bute Council 2024 Annual Review Page 223
Page 224
Page 34 of 39 Item Author Year URL Argyll and Bute Waste Strategy Argyll & Bute Council 2024 Argyll and Bute Waste Strategy Argyll and Bute Woodland and Forestry Strategy Argyll & Bute Council 2011 https://www.argyll- bute.gov.uk/sites/default/files /2023- 05/woodland_and_forestry_st rategy_april_2011_ac.pdf Argyll and the Isles Rainforest Strategy Argyll Countryside Trust 2023 Download.ashx Beach Nourishment Assessment Cullipol, Isle of Luing Isle of Luing Community Trust 2022 https://isleofluing.org/applica tion/files/6416/7172/7269/Cu llipool_Beach_Assessment_FI NAL.pdf Blue Economy Vision for Scotland Scottish Government 2022 Blue Economy Vision for Scotland Borders Climate Change Routemap 2021 Scottish Borders Council 2021 Item No. 12 - Appendix 1 - SB CLIMATE CHANGE ROUTE MAP FINAL.pdf Clackmannanshire Council Climate Change Strategy 2024 Clackmannans hire Council 2024 https://www.clacks.gov.uk/do cument/7146.pdf Clean Energy Transition Agenda for Mull Mull & Iona Community Trust 2024 Clean-Energy-Transition- Agenda-CETA-Mull- Archipelago-v2.5-FINAL.pdf Climate Change Plan Third Report on Proposals and Policies 2018- 2032 Scottish Government 2018 Climate Change Plan: The Third Report on Proposals and Policies 2018-2032 Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan 2020-2025 Skills Development Scotland 2023 climate-emergency-skills- action-plan-2020-2025.pdf Climate Ready Aberdeenshire Aberdeenshire Council 2024 Climate Ready Aberdeenshire Climate Ready Clyde - Glasgow City Region Adaptation Strategy Glasgow/Sniffer 2021 Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan | Climate Ready Clyde Community Risk Register West of Scotland Regional Resilience Partnership 2021 Community Risk Register Community Wealth Building in Argyll and Bute Argyll & Bute Council 2023 https://www.argyll- bute.gov.uk/moderngov/docu ments/s206468/Appendix%20 1%20Argyll%20and%20Bute %20Report%20Final.pdf Communicating Climate Change Adaptation Climate Outreach 2014 Communicating climate change adaptation – a practical guide to values- based communication - Climate Outreach Page 224
Page 225
Page 35 of 39 Item Author Year URL Developing a Climate Change Impact Assessment Framework Sustainable Scotland Network 2013 CCIA Report 06.10.23.pdf Driving emission reductions through the public sector supply chain Climate Exchange 2023 Driving emission reductions through the public sector supply chain: Scope 3 procurement emissions Economic opportunities in Scotland’s net zero and climate adaptation economy Climate Exchange 2024 Economic opportunities in Scotland’s net zero and climate adaptation economy Edinburgh 2023 Climate Change Strategy Edinburgh Council 2021 2030 Climate Strategy – The City of Edinburgh Council Edinburgh Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment Edinburgh Council 2022 climate-ready-edinburgh- plan-2024-2030 Energising Communities Moray Council 2019 file127790.pdf Feasibility study on Electric Vehicle & Renewable Energy Hubs - Mull Mull & Iona Commnunity Trust 2024 The AMAZE Project | Mull and Iona Community Trust Forest and Land Scotland Climate Change Plan Forest & Land Scotland 2021 Climate Change Plan Green Jobs in Scotland: An inclusive approach to definition, measurement and analysis Skills Development Scotland 2022 green-jobs-in-scotland- report_final-4.pdf Highland and Argyll Local Flood Risk Management Plan Highland Council 2022 https://www.highland.gov.uk/ download/downloads/id/2638 1/highland_and_argyll_lfrmp_ cycle_2_dec_2022.pdf Highland Council Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Strategic Control Plan Highland Council 2020 https://www.highland.gov.uk/ download/downloads/id/2342 9/ev_infrastructure_vision.pdf Highland Council Net Zero Strategy Highland Council 2022 https://www.highland.gov.uk/ download/downloads/id/2743 8/net_zero_strategy.pdf Highlands & Islands Enterprise Strategy 2023-2028 Highlands & Islands Enterprise 2023 hie-strategy-2023-28-final- 031023.pdf Islay Natural Capital Baseline Survey Caledonian Climate Partners 2022 islay-natural-capital- baseline-survey-peatland- restoration-desktop-review- 6.pdf Just Transition A Fairer, Greener Scotland Scottish Government 2021 Just Transition: A Fairer, Greener Scotland Just Transition and Wild Places John Muir Trust 2022 JMT_JustTransition_B5_LO_v2 _original.pdf Ministry of Defence Annual Report and Accounts 2021–22 MoD 2022 Ministry of Defence annual report and accounts 2021 to 2022 - GOV.UK Ministry of Defence Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach MoD 2021 Ministry of Defence Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach Page 225
Page 226
Page 36 of 39 Item Author Year URL Net Zero Nation Scotish Government 2021 Net Zero Nation Optimising carbon sequestration opportunities for community wealth building in Argyll and Bute Highlands & Islands Enterprise 2022 Carbon sequestration Argyll and Bute research | HIE Orkney Islands Council Carbon Management Programme 2016- 2026 Orkney Islands Council 2016 Carbon Management Plan 2016-2026 Perth and Kinross Climate Change Strategy Perth & Kinross Council 2021 Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan Public Bodies Climate Change Duties Reporting Analysis Report 2022/23 Sustainable Scotland Network 2024 https://sustainablescotlandn etwork.org/uploads/store/me diaupload/2472/file/SSN- Analysis-Report-2022-23.pdf Public Sector Leadership on the Global Climate Emergency Scottish Government 2021 Public Sector Leadership on the Global Climate Emergency Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Argyll and Bute Council Argyll & Bute Council 2024 Argyll and Bute Council PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Argyll and Bute Integration Joint Board Argyll & Bute IJB 2024 Argyll and Bute IJB PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Argyll College UHI Argyll College UHI 2024 Argyll College UHI PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Crofting Commission Crofting Commission 2024 Crofting Commission PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Forestry and Land Scotland Forestry and Land Scotland 2024 Forestry and Land Scotland PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Highlands and Islands Enterprise Highlands and Islands Enterprise 2024 Highlands and Islands Enterprise PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 HITRANS HITRANS 2024 HITRANS PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Loch Lomond Trossachs National Park LL&T NP Authority 2024 Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park Authority PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 NatureScot NatureScot 2024 NatureScot PBCCD 2023.xlsx Page 226
Page 227
Page 37 of 39 Item Author Year URL Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 NHS Highland NHS Highland 2024 NHS Highland PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Scottish Ambulance Service Scottish Ambulance Service 2024 Scottish Ambulance Service PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Scottish Enterprise Scottish Enterprise 2024 Scottish Enterprise PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Scottish Environmental Protection Agency SEPA 2024 SEPA PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Scottish Fire and Rescue Service SFRS 2024 Scottish Fire and Rescue Service PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Scottish Forestry Scottish Forestry 2024 Scottish Forestry PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Scottish Police Authority Scottish Police Authority 2024 The Scottish Police Authority PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Scottish Water Scottish Water 2023 Scottish Water PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 Skills Development Scotland Skills Development Scotland 2024 Skills Development Scotland PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 SportScotland SportScotland 2024 sportscotland PBCCD 2023.xlsx Public Sector Report on Compliance with Climate Change Duties 2023 VisitScotland VisitScotland 2024 VisitScotland PBCCD 2023.xlsx Renewable Energy Guide for Developers & Communities working with Scottish Water Scottish Water 2018 ScottishWaterCommunityRen ewableGuidanceUpdated120 22019.pdf Rural Attitudes to Climate Change Climate Outreach 2021 Rural attitudes to climate change - equipping UK rural councillors to engage with their communities - Climate Outreach Scotish Fire and Rescue Service Climate Change Response Plan 2045 Scottish Fire and Rescue Service 2020 https://external-doc- library.s3.eu-west- 2.amazonaws.com/PROD/Cli Page 227
Page 228
Page 38 of 39 Item Author Year URL mateChangeResponsePlan20 45.pdf Scotish Fire and Rescue Service Energy and Climate Plan 2020- 2030 Scottish Fire and Rescue Service 2020 EnergyCarbonStrategy2020- 2030.pdf Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation Scottish Government 2022 Delivering Economic Prosperity Scotland’s Third Land Use Strategy 2021-2026 Scottish Government 2021 scotlands-third-land-use- strategy-2021-2026-getting- best-land.pdf Scottish Ambulance Service Annual Climate Emergency and Sustainability Report 2022/23 Scottish Ambulance Service 2023 Microsoft Word - 2024-01-31 Item 09 PART 1 SAS 2022-23 Annual Health Board Climate and Sustainability Report.docx Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045 Scottish Government 2023 https://www.gov.scot/publica tions/scottish-biodiversity- strategy-2045-tackling- nature-emergency-scotland- 2/documents/ Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme 2019-2024 Scottish Government 2019 Climate Ready Scotland: Second Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme 2019-2024 Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Biodiversity Duty Report 2021- 2023 Scottish Fire and Rescue Service 2024 https://external-doc- library.s3.eu-west- 2.amazonaws.com/PROD/Bio diversityDutyReport2021- 2023.pdf Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Carbon Management Plan 2020- 2025 Scottish Fire and Rescue Service 2021 SFRSCarbonMgtPlan2020- 2025V1.0 Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Waste Management Strategy Scottish Fire and Rescue Service 2024 Microsoft Word - WasteMgtStrategy2022-2025 Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-29 Scottish Government 2024 Draft Scottish National Adaptation Plan (2024-2029) Scottish Water Adaptation Plan Scottish Water 2024 290224ScottishWaterAdaptat ionPlan.pdf Scottish Water Net Zero Emissions Routemap Scottish Water 2020 scottishwater.co.uk/- /media/ScottishWater/Docu ment-Hub/Key- Publications/Net-Zero- Routemap/130920ScottishW aterNetZeroRoutemap.pdf Shetland Islands Council Climate Change Strategy 2023-27 Shetland Islands Council 2023 SIC Climate Change Strategy 2023-2027 – Shetland Islands Council Page 228
Page 229
Page 39 of 39 Item Author Year URL Skills Development Scotland Climate Change Progress Report 2020-22 Skills Development Scotland 2023 climate-change-strategy- progress-report-2020-22.pdf Skills Development Scotland Climate Change Strategy 2020- 2030 Skills Development Scotland 2020 sds-climate-change-strategy- 2020-30.pdf Sportscotland Sport and Climate Change Framework and Self Assessment Sportscotland 2023 https://sportscotland.org.uk/ media/sogciexb/sportscotlan d-sport-and-climate-change- framework-updated-16-nov- 2023.docx Transport Scotland’s Approach to Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience Transport Scotland 2023 Transport Scotland’s Approach to Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience UHI Sustainability Strategy 2030 UHI 2023 sustainability-strategy- 2030.pdf UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) for Scotland Sniffer 2023 CCRA-Evidence-Report- Scotland-Summary-Final- 1.pdf Update to the Climate Change Plan 2018 – 2032 Scottish Government 2020 Update to the Climate Change Plan 2018 - 2032: Securing a Green Recovery on a Path to Net Zero Vision for Scottish Agriculture Scottish Government 2022 The Next Step In Delivering Our Vision For Scotland As a Leader In Sustainable And Regenerative Farming. Page 229
Page 230
This page is intentionally left blank