Item 13 - Appendix 6
West Dunbartonshire Council · 15 June 2022
Back to Audit Committee — 15 June 2022 and its agenda
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West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators General Services 39,046 51,506 76,526 47,104 30,083 17,097 13,461 13,402 13,308 13,103 13,103 Capital receipts 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital grants 9,583 17,292 27,578 14,379 13,529 9,556 6,648 6,648 6,648 6,648 6,648 Revenue 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other funding 1,173 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net financing need for the year 28,217 34,172 48,948 32,725 16,554 7,541 6,813 6,754 6,660 6,455 6,455 HRA 46,907 47,233 52,047 34,424 32,531 29,926 17,115 17,087 17,429 17,778 17,314 Capital receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital grants 3,656 17,060 9,140 2,640 3,520 3,520 0 0 0 0 0 Revenue 7,927 9,179 9,228 8,722 7,949 7,418 4,923 4,502 4,253 4,191 3,923 Other funding 91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net financing need for the year 35,233 20,994 33,678 23,063 21,062 18,989 12,192 12,585 13,176 13,586 13,391 General Services 39,046 51,506 76,526 47,104 30,083 17,097 13,461 13,402 13,308 13,103 13,103 HRA 46,907 47,233 52,047 34,424 32,531 29,926 17,115 17,087 17,429 17,778 17,314 Capital Expenditure 85,953 98,739 128,573 81,528 62,614 47,023 30,576 30,489 30,737 30,881 30,417 Capital receipts 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Capital grants 13,239 34,352 36,718 17,019 17,049 13,076 6,648 6,648 6,648 6,648 6,648 Revenue 7,990 9,179 9,228 8,722 7,949 7,418 4,923 4,502 4,253 4,191 3,923 Other funding 1,264 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net financing need for the year 63,450 55,166 82,626 55,788 37,616 26,530 19,005 19,339 19,836 20,041 19,846 Capital Financing Requirement CFR – General Services 392,588 420,860 463,023 486,836 492,862 488,744 483,803 479,083 474,029 466,856 462,482 CFR – HRA 306,298 320,274 346,010 360,002 371,559 380,751 381,451 381,927 382,541 383,308 384,366 Total CFR 698,886 741,135 809,033 846,838 864,421 869,495 865,254 861,010 856,570 850,164 846,848 Movement in CFR 52,696 42,249 67,898 37,805 17,583 5,074 (4,241) (4,244) (4,440) (6,406) (3,316) Movement in CFR represented by Net financing need for the year (above) 63,450 55,166 82,626 55,788 37,616 26,530 19,005 19,339 19,836 20,041 19,846 Less scheduled debt amortisation and other financing movements (10,755) (12,917) (14,729) (17,983) (20,032) (21,455) (23,246) (23,583) (24,276) (26,447) (23,162) Movement in CFR 52,696 42,249 67,898 37,805 17,583 5,074 (4,241) (4,244) (4,440) (6,406) (3,316) Table A - Net Capital Financing Need Table B - Capital Financing Requirement Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2021/22 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2021/22 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2021/22 General Services and HRA Shown Separately General Services and HRA Combined Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2025/26 £000 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Financed by: Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2027/28 Financed by: Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2029/30 £000 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2024/25 Financed by: £000 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2023/24 £000 Forecast 2021/22 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2030/31 Appendix 6
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West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators Table C - Internal Loan Fund Repayment Profile (excluding PPP repayments) £000 £000 £000 Under 12 months 2,527 7,017 9,545 2 years to 5 years 22,121 36,314 58,436 6 years to 10 years 41,323 61,543 102,866 11 years to 15 years 49,846 57,689 107,535 16 years to 20 years 47,793 65,251 113,045 21 years to 25 years 42,074 69,823 111,897 26 years to 30 years 36,673 52,710 89,383 31 years to 35 years 36,261 34,069 70,330 36 years to 40 years 23,468 19,776 43,244 41 years to 45 years 12,729 6,670 19,399 46 years to 50 years 12,640 4,328 16,968 51 years to 55 years 17,482 6,656 24,139 56 years to 60 years 27,070 9,506 36,576 60 years plus 133,862 1,176 135,038 General Services 8.07% 7.77% 8.53% 9.17% 10.52% 11.03% 11.01% 10.83% 10.89% 11.66% 11.88% HRA 25.07% 27.08% 28.30% 31.44% 32.35% 37.79% 38.83% 39.33% 39.47% 39.98% 40.94% External Debt Debt at 1 April 548,659 604,941 650,563 721,601 762,997 784,901 794,686 795,107 794,627 793,984 792,061 New Borrowing - CFR 56,282 45,621 71,038 41,396 21,903 9,786 420 (479) (643) (1,924) 1,536 Debt at 31 March 604,941 650,563 721,601 762,997 784,901 794,686 795,107 794,627 793,984 792,061 793,597 Long Term Liabilities at 1 April 96,292 92,614 89,242 86,102 82,510 78,190 73,479 68,818 65,053 61,256 56,774 Change in Long Term Liabilities (3,678) (3,372) (3,140) (3,592) (4,320) (4,712) (4,661) (3,765) (3,797) (4,482) (4,853) Long Term Liabilities at 31 March 92,614 89,242 86,102 82,510 78,190 73,479 68,818 65,053 61,256 56,774 51,921 Gross Debt at 31 March 697,556 739,805 807,703 845,508 863,091 868,165 863,924 859,680 855,240 848,834 845,518 Capital Financing Requirement 698,886 741,135 809,033 846,838 864,421 869,495 865,254 861,010 856,570 850,164 846,848 Under / (Over) Borrowing 1,330 1,330 1,330 1,330 1,330 1,330 1,330 1,330 1,330 1,330 1,330 Table D - Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue Stream Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2021/22 HRA TotalGeneral Services Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2026/27 Table E - Gross External Debt compared to the Underlying Need to Borrow (CFR) £000 Forecast 2021/22 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2030/31 Forecast 2031/32 Forecast 2030/31
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West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators External Debt 665,436 715,619 793,761 839,297 863,391 874,155 874,617 874,090 873,383 871,267 872,957 Long Term Liability 101,876 98,166 94,712 90,761 86,009 80,826 75,700 71,558 67,381 62,451 57,113 Total 767,311 813,785 888,473 930,058 949,400 954,981 950,317 945,648 940,764 933,718 930,070 External Debt 725,930 780,675 865,921 915,597 941,881 953,624 954,128 953,553 952,781 950,473 952,317 Long Term Liability 111,137 107,090 113,322 109,012 103,828 98,174 92,581 88,063 83,507 78,128 72,305 Total 837,067 887,766 979,243 1,024,609 1,045,709 1,051,798 1,046,709 1,041,616 1,036,288 1,028,601 1,024,622 Bank Rate 0.75% 1.00% 1.00% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% 5yr PWLB Rate 2.20% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30% 10yr PWLB Rate 2.30% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 25yr PWLB Rate 2.40% 2.50% 2.50% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 50yr PWLB Rate 2.20% 2.30% 2.30% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% Long term rating 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years AAA 0.04% 0.10% 0.17% 0.26% 0.35% AA 0.02% 0.04% 0.09% 0.16% 0.24% A 0.05% 0.15% 0.27% 0.40% 0.55% BBB 0.15% 0.40% 0.70% 1.05% 1.41% BB 0.65% 1.84% 3.22% 4.60% 5.84% B 2.76% 6.66% 10.26% 13.35% 15.82% CCC 18.96% 26.64% 31.60% 35.08% 37.88% Note - The AAA default risk is actually higher than the AA default risk due the number of AAA rated institutions left £000 Link Asset Services Interest Rate View Dec-22 Forecast 2026/27 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Forecast 2024/25£000 Table F - Operational Boundary Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2028/29 Table H - Interest Rate Forecast (February 2022) Table I - Historic Risk of Default Forecast 2027/28 Forecast 2021/22 Table G - Authorised Limit Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2028/29 Forecast 2025/26 Sep-24Jun-22 Mar-23 Forecast 2029/30 Forecast 2021/22 Forecast 2022/23 Forecast 2023/24 Mar-22 Forecast 2030/31 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Forecast 2024/25 Forecast 2025/26 Forecast 2026/27 Sep-22 Forecast 2031/32 Mar-25 Forecast 2030/31 Dec-24Jun-24 Forecast 2031/32
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West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators Investment Fitch Category (or equivalent) Money Limit F1+ / AA- £10million F1 / A- £5 million 2 F1/A- £10 million (per group) 3 £5 million 4 £5 million 5 As in 1 above £10million and £5million Sector Limit £25 million Fund Limit £5 million 7 No limit Sector imit £25 million Fund Limit £5 million £000 2021/22 Estimate 1% -1% Variable Rate Debt Payments N/A N/A N/A Variable Rate Investment income 75 150 (75) Table K - Sensitivity to Interest Rate Movements 1 8 Overnight 364 days 364 days Table J - Counterparty Limits Time Limit 6 364 days 364 days 364 days 6 months Very liquid no time limit applies
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West Dunbartonshire Council Prudential and Treasury Indicators Limits on fixed interest rates Limits on variable interest rates Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Under 12 months 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 12 months to 2 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 2 years to 5 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 5 years to 10 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 10 years to 20 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 20 years to 30 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 30 years to 40 years 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 40 years to 50 years 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 50 years to 60 years 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 60 years to 70 years 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% Principal sums invested > 364 & 365 days 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% £nil £7m £nil £7m £nil £7m Maturity Structure of fixed interest rate borrowing Upper 2022/23 Upper 2023/24 Upper Table L- Treasury Management Limits on Activity 2021/22