Supplementary Agenda Document Pack - Moray Council - 25/09/2024
Moray Council · 25 September 2024
Back to Moray Council — 25 September 2024 and its agenda
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Moray Council Wednesday, 25 September 2024 SUPPLEMENTARY AGENDA The undernoted reports have been added to the Agenda for the meeting of the Moray Council to be held at Council Chambers, Council Office, High Street, Elgin, IV30 1BX on Wednesday, 25 September 2024 at 09:30. BUSINESS 3a. Resolution Consider, and if so decide, adopt the following resolution: "That under Section 50A (4) and (5) of the Local Government (Scotland) Act 1973, as amended, the public and media representatives be excluded from the meeting for Items 18 - 20 of business on the grounds that it involves the likely disclosure of exempt information of the class described in the relevant Paragraphs of Part 1 of Schedule 7A of the Act.” 12a. Appointment of Chair and Depute Chair for Audit and Scrutiny Committee Report by the Depute Chief Executive (Education, Communities and Organisational Development) 3 - 4 15a. Early Years STEM Full Business Case Report by the Depute Chief Executive (Education, Communities and Organisational Development) 5 - 154 Page 1
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18. Revised Redundancy Policy [Para 1] • 1. Information relating to staffing matters; 19. Senior Management Recruitment Update [Para 1] • 1. Information relating to staffing matters; 20. Consultancy Support For Review Of Council Corporate Management Structure [Para 8 and 9] • 8 & 9. Information on proposed terms and/or expenditure to be incurred by the Authority; Page 2
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REPORT TO: MORAY COUNCIL ON 25 SEPTEMBER 2024 SUBJECT: APPOINTMENT OF CHAIR AND DEPUTE CHAIR OF AUDIT AND SCRUTINY COMMITTEE BY: DEPUTE CHIEF EXECUTIVE (EDUCATION, COMMUNITIES AND ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT) 1. REASON FOR REPORT 1.1 To invite the Council to appoint a new Chair and Depute Chair of Audit and Scrutiny Committee. 1.2 This report is submitted to Council in terms of Sections I, II and III of the Council's Scheme of Administration relating to the establishment of a committee structure, the appointment to committees, the appointment of Chair and Depute Chair thereof and the delegation of functions to committees 2. RECOMMENDATION 2.1 It is recommended that the Council considers and agrees to appoint a new Chair and Depute Chair for Audit and Scrutiny Committee following the resignation of Councillor Leadbitter. 3. BACKGROUND 3.1 At its meeting on 18 May 2022, the Council agreed to appoint Councillors Leadbitter and Morrison as Chair and Depute Chair of Audit and Scrutiny Committee (para 3 of the minute refers) following agreement that the positions be taken up by non-members of the Administration. 3.2 Following the General Election on 4 July 2024, Graham Leadbitter resigned as a Councillor of Moray Council on 14 August 2024. Until this date he had been chair of Audit and Scrutiny Commmittee. 4. SUMMARY OF IMPLICATIONS (a) Corporate Plan and 10 Year Plan (Local Outcomes Improvement Plan (LOIP)) None arising from this report. (b) Policy and Legal The proposals set out in this report comply with Sections (I) (II) & (III) of Item 12a. Page 3
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the Council’s Scheme of Administration relating to the delegation of functions to Committees and Sub-Committees, the appointments of Members to these and the appointment of Chair & Depute Chairs. (c) Financial implications None arising from this report (d) Risk Implications None arising from this report. (e) Staffing Implications None arising from this report. (f) Property None arising from this report. (g) Equalities/Socio Economic Impact None arising from this report. (h) Climate Change and Biodiversity Impacts None arising from this report. (i) Consultations The Interim Chief Executive, Depute Chief Executive (Education, Communities and Organisational Development), Depute Chief Executive (Economy, Environment and Finance) and Head of Governance, Strategy and Performance have been consulted and any comments incorporated into the report. 5. CONCLUSION 5.1 Council is asked to consider and agree the Chair and Depute Chair of Audit and Scrutiny Committee. Author of Report: Tracey Sutherland, Democratic Services Manager Background Papers: Ref: Page 4
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REPORT TO: MORAY COUNCIL ON 25 SEPTEMBER 2024 SUBJECT: MORAY GROWTH DEAL – EARLY YEARS SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING AND MATHEMATICS PROJECT FULL BUSINESS CASE BY: DEPUTE CHIEF EXECUTIVE (EDUCATION, COMMUNITIES AND ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT) 1. REASON FOR REPORT 1.1 To inform Council of progress made by the Moray Growth Deal (MGD) to prepare a full business case for the Early Years Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (EY STEM) project and seek delegated authority to enable final approval of the business case enabling the project to move into delivery. 1.2 This report is submitted to Council in terms of Section (II) (20) of the Council’s Scheme of Administration relating to a new policy matter which does not fall within the terms of reference of any Committee. 2. RECOMMENDATION 2.1 It is recommended that the Council: (i) considers and approves the Full Business Case (FBC) summarised in this report and contained in Appendix 1; (ii) delegates authority to the Depute Chief Executive (Education, Communities and Organisational Development) to make any final changes as required following completion of the Government review process, with a view to agreeing a final version of the FBC to progress to implementation; and (iii) delegates authority to the Depute Chief Executive (Economy, Environment and Finance) or other such signatory as may be required to accept the Government grants for the projects in line with the terms of the MGD Item 15a. Page 5
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3. BACKGROUND 3.1 On 30 November 2021 Council approved full deal documentation for the MGD that included a full business case for the Digital Health project and outline business cases for the remaining 7 projects (para 9 of the minute refers). 3.2 Since then the EY STEM project has been working to prepare it’s FBC, ensuring proposals operate within the revenue and capital envelope set at OBC stage. A project briefing was held for members in March 2023 that focused on how the project team had developed an operational model in line with the aspirations of the preferred option at OBC stage but that was financially viable. Alongside this, updates on progress were included in the Deal’s annual reports. The 2021/22 annual report was presented to Council on 8 March 2023 (para 13 of the minute refers) and the 2023 annual report was submitted for approval at the Council meeting on 6 March 2024 (para 14 of the minute refers). 3.3 This report summarises and presents the EY STEM FBC which will incur costs of £4.8m capital (£3.5m from the Scottish Government and £1.3m from the Moray Council) and £1.6m revenue (Moray Council). Details of when the Council’s capital and revenue contributions will be profiled during the life of the project are outlined in section 6(c). 3.4 The submission of this document to the Moray Council is part of an extensive assurance process that is outlined below. Project Pre- submission workshop with the Governments Project Board approval MGD Programme Board approval Transforming Learning Board Moray Economic Partnership EY STEM 8 March 2024 5 March 2024 28 March 2024 31 May 2024 Late Q2, early Q4 24/25 3.5 Government clearance of the FBC is expected mid to late Q2 24/25 and this, coupled with approval by the Council and the Community Planning Board on 23 October 2024, will enable the project to enter delivery in early Q3 24/25 FY. 4. CURRENT STATUS OF THE EY STEM PROJECT FBC 4.1 The Government review process for the business case has commenced and the draft appended to this paper (Appendix 1) incorporates feedback provided from the first cycle of comments received from Policy Advisors. 4.2 Whilst it is likely further comments will be received from Policy Advisors before the Government review concludes, it is not expected at this stage that they will result in material changes to the FBC. To account for these changes, delegated authority is sought to make final adjustments to the final version of the document. Delegated authority is similarly sought to accept grant for the project in line with terms agreed previously. Page 6
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5. OVERVIEW OF EY STEM FBC ISSUE 3 (APPENDIX 1) Summary of the project 5.1 Early Years STEM aims to encourage young people to enter a STEM related career when they leave education and focuses on STEM engagement with children in their early stages of learning (age 3-8). The project develops a STEM learning ecosystem in the Moray area, through the creation of specialist learning environments and experiences, access to training and resources and the creation of a STEM learning network involving key delivery partners, upskilled staff, volunteers from industry and the wider community. 5.2 The project will invest in state of the art facilities in community settings throughout Moray, each offering a unique experience that can be delivered flexibly across the region, including mobile and outreach offerings. These hubs will aim to inspire and enhance the STEM learning experience of children and staff through age appropriate, curriculum aligned and industry related STEM experiences. It will also offer accessibility to parents, employers and the wider community, thereby allowing inter-generational learning to take place 5.3 Capital totalling £4.8 million will be required to deliver the facilities: Funding partner Capital contribution Scottish Government £3,500,000 UK Government £1,300,000 TOTAL £4,800,000 5.4 The project will also be supported by revenue funding of £1.6 million from Moray Council to support STEM specific roles and the embedding of the services as the project moves into delivery. Investment objectives to be achieved 1 To increase the availability of STEM opportunities for younger people, through the creation of experiential STEM learning hubs delivering upwards of 9000 engagements per annum by 2032 2 To increase participation and attainment in STEM subjects at secondary level by 8%, thereby encouraging uptake at further and higher education and ultimately increasing the STEM skills level in Moray by 2042. 3 To ensure there is equality of opportunity in STEM education across Moray, ensuring all students aged 3-8 are engaged with the curriculum at least once per annum no matter their location, and increasing female participation in STEM subjects at secondary level by 10% by 2042. 4 To increase the skills level of early year’s practitioners and primary teachers in the delivery of STEM disciplines, with an increase of 32 STEM champions in settings by 2032. 5 To strengthen science capital within communities through the provision of at least 10 public STEM engagement events per annum, thereby encouraging parental engagement, inter-generational learning, and raising the awareness of STEM related careers by 2032. Page 7
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6 To develop new forms of delivery through multi-agency collaboration and inter- disciplinary working, engaging 400 students aged 3-12 in partner led programmes and events, and increasing the number of industry and community STEM Ambassadors in Moray by 50% by 2032. What will this project mean for Moray? 5.5 The project will deliver a number of facilities and assets for the region, namely: - A network of state of the art STEM facilities in community settings across Moray. The first will be in Moray’s central public library in Elgin (Cooper Park) and 2 further satellite sites will be developed in Forres and Buckie. - A mobile facility will be procured, with this being used to reduce rurality as a barrier to participation in STEM activity. - An environmental sciences and outdoor STEM learning centre will be developed and delivered in conjunction with a local environmental charity, the preferred location identified is at Milbuies Country Park. - An outreach offering, consisting of a central repository of STEM resources. - A comprehensive learning programme aligned to Scotland’s Curriculum for Excellence that offers progression from early years through to broad general education. - A STEM Grant Scheme using ring fenced Moray Growth Deal funding to support partnership activity and community focused STEM programmes and events. - A dedicated team of STEM Coordinators to manage activity across all elements of the project, including outreach, STEM delivery at the centres, and co-ordination of partner activity. Overview of options considered and the preferred approach 5.6 Five options were considered for the project: Option Description 1 Do nothing, business as usual: No Growth Deal funding to be used, current way of working continues. 2 Minimum: A hub provision in each ELC and primary setting, a mobile offering and partnership activity 3 Intermediate: One central provision, a mobile and outreach offering and partnership activity. 4 Intermediate: Provision in targeted locations across Moray, a mobile and outreach offering and partnership activity. 5 Maximum: Provision in each ASG in Moray, a mobile offering and partnership activity. 5.7 As the business case progressed to Full Business Case (FBC) stage, three short-listed options were carried forward: Option 2, Option 3, and Option 4. 5.8 Option 1 was discounted (but presented as the “Business as Usual” status quo option as a baseline comparator) as it presented little evidence of impact, and the demand for Option 5 has been tested in engagement with education Page 8
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staff who indicated limited utilisation of fixed facilities in rural areas (with a preference for flexible mobile solutions). Theme Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Raw (R) and weighted (W) scores R W R W R W Productivity 3 0.15 7 0.35 8 0.4 People 12 1 20 1.65 30 2.35 Population 1 0.05 2 0.1 4 0.2 Place 1 0.05 12 0.6 14 0.7 Fairer Scotland Duty 3 0.3 8 0.6 10 0.75 Total Score 20 1.55 49 3.3 66 4.4 Weighted (%) 31% 66% 88% 5.9 Option 4 was identified as the preferred option. It offers the ability to deliver against the stated investment objectives and contribute to the realisation of economic and wider qualitative benefits. Key headlines from the business case 5.10 The benefit cost ratio (BCR) at a UK level for the preferred option (number 4) is 5.8, which compares to 5.2 for option 2 and 4.9 for option 3. 5.11 The first STEM hub (in Elgin Library) is expected to be operational in Autumn 2025, with the satellite hubs in Forres and Buckie to be developed in subsequent phases of activity 5.12 As the project prepares to enter delivery, the key grouping of risks being managed by the project team relate to service implementation. Specifically: Lack of employer, partner, and community engagement - Consultation with Community Planning Partnership and cross sharing of resources for engagement - Utilise partner connections - Early understanding of market needs Failure to develop scope that meets objectives - Early understanding of needs - Communications and engagement - Project planning with key stakeholders - Ensure the project board involves key stakeholders Project fails to deliver core benefits - Stakeholders have strong reputation - Project planning and risk management/operationalisation - Ongoing communications and partnership-working Failure to recruit the staff with the right mix of skills - Robust recruitment process Page 9
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6 SUMMARY OF IMPLICATIONS (a) Corporate Plan and 10 Year Plan (Local Outcomes Improvement Plan (LOIP) The MGD projects contribute to the Corporate Plan priority of promoting economic development and growth, whilst meeting the LOIP vision of raising aspirations, reducing inequalities in educational attainment, providing access to employment, expanding choices for residents, and improving livelihood and well-being. (b) Policy and Legal Each MGD project has been developed to meet local, regional and national policy agendas in line with legal requirements where relevant. (c) Financial implications This project is funded through the Growth Deal and led by the Moray Council. The Scottish Government is contributing £3.5m, with the Moray Council £1.3m in capital and £1.6m in revenue. Year Capital Revenue 22/23 £0 £53,595 23/24 £66,493 £71,338 24/25 £338,445 £56,724 25/26 £249,162 £124,889 26/27 £217,490 £128,635 27/28 £148,180 £142.875 28/29 £131,450 £157,854 29/30 £48,000 £162,590 30/31 £45,000 £167,590 31/32 £52,780 £172,666 32/33 £0 £177,666 33/24 £0 £182,996 TOTAL £1,300,000 £1,599,121 (d) Risk Implications The risks associated with these projects are captured in the FBC and there are robust risk management processes embedded within both project and programme governance arrangements. Below is an extract from the ‘Strategic risks’ section of the FBC (2.9, P57): Risk category Description Mitigation Business Contractors failing to deliver according to budget or timescales. - Appropriate procurement planning. - Appropriate contract penalties to be in place. Service Lack of employer, partner, and community engagement. - Consultation with Community Planning Partnership and cross Page 10
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sharing of resources for engagement. - Utilise partner connections. - Early understanding of market needs Project fails to deliver core benefits. - Stakeholders have strong reputation. - Project planning and risk management / operationalisation. - Ongoing communications and partnership-working. Wild Things partner fails to raise the required funds necessary to support operational costs. - Early engagement with external funders. - Consider alternate suppliers should organisation fail to meet service requirements. External environment Difficulty acquiring and securing sites. - Scope alternative locations, seek legal guidance at early project stages. (e) Staffing Implications The revenue model set out within the FBC makes provision for a number of new roles that will be needed to ensure the successful delivery and embedding of the project vision. Specifically: - Engagement Manager: 0.7 FTE - Engagement Officers: 1.4 FTE The STEM engagement roles will work across all Moray ASGs, facilitating activity at fixed hubs and outreach activity. (f) Property Approval of the FBC will see a range of STEM hubs constructed, namely: - Refurbishment of space at Elgin Library and 2 satellite sites in Forres and Buckie as part of future phases of the project. - A STEM learning centre to be developed at Milbuies Country Park in conjunction with a local environmental charity. (g) Equalities/Socio Economic Impact An integrated impact assessment covering equalities and socio- economic duties along with human rights and rights of the child has been considered as part of the FBC development process. Information can be found in appendix 4 of the FBC document. Page 11
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(h) Climate Change and Biodiversity Impacts As part of their review process with the Governments, Growth Deal projects need to take account of carbon and environmental considerations, with net zero aspirations being integrated into design briefs for new properties. (i) Consultations The full business case that this report seeks approval for have been subjected to significant consultation, as highlighted in section 3.4. More specifically, this has included engagement with a number of key Council Officers including the Depute Chief Executive (Economy, Environment and Finance), Depute Chief Executive (Education, Communities and Organisational Development), Head of Education, ELC Service Manager, Head of Economic Growth and Development, Chief Financial Officer, Legal Services Manager and the Democratic Services Manager. 7 CONCLUSION 7.1 This paper introduces a nearly final draft of the EY STEM FBC. The Council is asked to consider and approve this which, in conjunction with receiving Government clearance, will enable it to enter delivery. 7.2 Whilst the FBC presented has already been the subject of significant review, the Council is asked to delegate authority for the Depute Chief Executive (Education, Communities and Organisational Development) to approval a final iteration following comments from the Governments. 7.3 The Council is also asked to delegate authority to the Depute Chief Executive (Economy, Environment and Finance) or other such signatory as may be required to accept the Government grant for the project in line with the terms of the Moray Growth Deal. Author of Report: Michael Kelly, Moray Growth Deal Programme Manager Background Papers: ▪ Full Deal documentation (December 2021) which includes the EY STEM Outline Business Case (OBC) ▪ Moray Growth Deal 2021/22 annual report: o 8 March 2023 o 24 May 2023 ▪ Moray Growth Deal 2023 annual report: o 6 March 2024 o 22 May 2024 Ref: SPMAN-813460984-648 Page 12
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APPENDIX 1 Version Number: Issue 3 Date: 13.08.2024 The following is to be completed by High Level Governance Board Approved By/Date Approval (choose from drop down menu) Choose an item. Comments Version Date Details 0.1 31/10/2023 Initial draft for project board review incorporating executive summary, strategic, commercial and management cases 0.2 10/01/2024 Second draft for project board incorporating financial case and updates to all sections 0.3 08/03/2024 Third draft for project board incorporating economic case and updates to all sections 1.0 15/03/2024 Initial version for Moray Growth Deal Programme Board and incorporating feedback from stakeholders and project board. 2.0 21/05/2024 Revised version incorporating feedback from Transform Learning Board and Moray Growth Deal Programme Board for submission to Scottish Government 3.0 13/08/2024 Third version incorporating feedback from Scottish Government PROJECT REF/NAME Early Years STEM PROJECT SPONSOR Hazel Sly COMPLETED BY Sarah Barnes DATE 13th August 2024 Project Category Strategic Item 15a. Page 13
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Page 2 of 142 Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................... 5 Introduction .................................................................................................. 5 What are the issues? ................................................................................... 6 How will we fix the issues?........................................................................... 9 Who is involved? ........................................................................................ 14 How did we identify the solution? ............................................................... 14 The Long List .................................................................................................... 14 The short list...................................................................................................... 15 Preferred Option ........................................................................................ 15 Key findings: economic appraisal ...................................................................... 15 Key findings: wider socio-economic impacts ..................................................... 17 Key findings: carbon assessment...................................................................... 17 Overall findings: the preferred option ................................................................ 18 What is the solution? .................................................................................. 18 STEM Centre Network ...................................................................................... 19 Educational Programme .................................................................................... 22 STEM Coordinator Resource ............................................................................ 22 Mobile Offering .................................................................................................. 23 Outreach Offering .............................................................................................. 24 Environmental Sciences STEM Learning Centre .............................................. 24 STEM Grant Scheme ........................................................................................ 25 How much will it cost? ................................................................................ 26 How will it be delivered? ............................................................................ 26 How will the benefits accrue? ..................................................................... 26 Is it financially sustainable?........................................................................ 27 How does the project fit in the strategic landscape? .................................. 27 What else is happening in the region? ....................................................... 28 What else needs to be done? .................................................................... 29 2. The Strategic Case ........................................................................................... 30 Organisational overview ............................................................................. 30 The strategic context .................................................................................. 30 Business Strategy and Aims ...................................................................... 30 Investment objectives ................................................................................ 34 Existing Arrangements ............................................................................... 35 Skills Shortage and the Moray Economy .......................................................... 35 Raising Achievement and Improving Outcomes ............................................... 38 Business Needs Current and Future .......................................................... 43 Early Intervention .............................................................................................. 43 Overcoming Barriers to Engagement ................................................................ 45 Collaborative Approach and Partnership Working............................................. 48 Increasing Science Capital across the STEM Ecosystem ................................. 49 Potential scope and service requirements ................................................. 53 Benefits criteria .......................................................................................... 55 Strategic risks ............................................................................................ 57 Constraints ................................................................................................. 59 Dependencies ............................................................................................ 59 3. The Economic Case .......................................................................................... 60 Introduction ................................................................................................ 60 Critical Success Factors ............................................................................ 61 Long Listed Options ................................................................................... 62 Short- Listed Options ................................................................................. 63 Page 14
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Page 3 of 142 Economic Appraisal ................................................................................... 68 Quantitative Economic Appraisal ............................................................... 69 Description, Sources, and Assumptions ............................................................ 69 Estimating Costs ............................................................................................... 71 Estimating Benefits ........................................................................................... 74 Summary of benefits ......................................................................................... 83 Displacement and Deadweight Analysis ........................................................... 84 Benefit Cost Ratios ........................................................................................... 85 Optimism Bias ................................................................................................... 87 Sensitivity Analysis for the Preferred Option ..................................................... 87 Employment and GVA impacts in Moray ........................................................... 91 Qualitative Benefits Appraisal .................................................................... 93 Anticipated Qualitative Benefits......................................................................... 93 Appraisal ........................................................................................................... 96 Carbon Impacts ........................................................................................ 100 Risk .......................................................................................................... 102 4. The Commercial Case .................................................................................... 105 Required Services .................................................................................... 105 Outline of the Students Journey ...................................................................... 106 Phase 1 Activity ............................................................................................... 108 Phase 2 Activity ............................................................................................... 111 Phase 3 Activity ............................................................................................... 114 Phase 1 Procurement Activity ......................................................................... 115 Phase 2-3 Procurement Activity ...................................................................... 115 Subsidy Control ............................................................................................... 116 Potential for Risk Transfer........................................................................ 116 Proposed Charging Mechanisms ............................................................. 117 Proposed Contract Lengths ..................................................................... 117 Proposed Key Contractual Clauses ......................................................... 117 Personnel Implications ............................................................................. 118 5. The Financial Case ......................................................................................... 119 Impact on the organisations income and expenditure acount .................. 119 Assumptions ............................................................................................ 122 Phase 1 ........................................................................................................... 122 Phase 2 ........................................................................................................... 122 Phase 3 ........................................................................................................... 123 Staffing Costs .................................................................................................. 123 Overall Affordability .................................................................................. 124 6. The Management Case ................................................................................... 125 Programme Management Arrangements ................................................. 125 Project management Arrangements ........................................................ 126 Project Reporting Structure ............................................................................. 126 Operational Structure ...................................................................................... 128 Roles and Responsibilities .............................................................................. 130 Project Plan Summary .................................................................................... 132 Use of Specialist Advisors........................................................................ 133 Outline arrangements for risks issues and change management. ........... 134 Outline arrangements risk management. ................................................. 134 Outline arrangements for Benefits Realisation ......................................... 134 Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements ................................................ 134 Outline arrangements for post project evaluation ..................................... 141 Gateway review arrangements ................................................................ 141 Page 15
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Page 4 of 142 Contingency Plans ................................................................................... 141 Page 16
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APPENDIX 1 Executive Summary Introduction Early Years STEM aims to encourage young people to pursue a STEM related career when they leave school or tertiary education and focuses on STEM engagement with children in their early stages of learning (age 3-8). The project seeks to develop a STEM learning ecosystem in the Moray area, through the creation of specialist learning environments and experiences, access to training and resources, and the creation of a STEM learning network involving Moray Council staff, key delivery partners, and volunteers from industry and the wider community. This innovative development will build on existing educational practices and initiatives and will create the necessary infrastructure to support a STEM skills pathway from early years through to broad general education and beyond. The focus on early year’s intervention is a unique feature of this business case. The project will deliver a comprehensive package of investment over 10 years that includes: Phase 1 2024-2025 − A state-of-the-art STEM learning centre hosted within the region’s central public library at Elgin Cooper Park. − A mobile facility fitted out with equipment that can be transported to and used in any suitable venue across Moray. − An outreach offering, consisting of a central repository of STEM resources. − A comprehensive learning programme aligned to the Scotland’s Curriculum for Excellence that offers progression from early years through primary school. − A dedicated team of STEM Coordinators to manage activity across all elements of the project. Phase 2 2026-2028 − Two satellite STEM hubs in the areas of Forres and Buckie, to enhance the reach of engagements across Moray. − An environmental sciences and outdoor STEM learning centre, developed and delivered in partnership with a local environmental charity and focusing on learning for sustainability. Phase 3 2029-2032 − A STEM Grant Scheme using ringfenced Moray Growth Deal funding to support partnership activity and community focused STEM programmes and events. − Budget to update and refresh equipment. Early Years STEM aims to inspire and enhance the STEM learning experience of children and staff through age appropriate, curriculum aligned and industry related STEM experiences, while offering accessibility to parents, employers, and the wider community, thereby allowing inter-generational learning to take place. The aspiration of this strategy is to close the equity gaps in participation and attainment in STEM, ultimately leading more young people to choose STEM occupations at a later stage in their lives. Page 17
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Page 6 of 142 What are the issues? Skills Shortage and the Moray Economy The UK economy is changing. According to research from the World Economic Forum Assembly,1 labour market transformations are being driven by technological breakthroughs, coupled with the shift to green energy and the broader application of environmental, social and governance standards within organisations. The fastest growing roles are driven by technology, digitalization and sustainability as economies shift towards renewable energy and benefit from advances in technology. These findings are consistent with labour market trends in Scotland’s Economy. Research conducted by Skills Development Scotland2 indicate job displacement caused by advances in technological development. Forecast employment change in Moray by industry from 2026-2033 shows significant contraction in the manufacturing sector, as new technologies and production methods will allow the sector to produce more, but with fewer workers. Across all sectors, there will be a shift in the types of roles and expectation of skills, as new ways of working and technologies are introduced to the workplace. The Moray economy has lower wage levels than in Scotland, with full time workers in Moray earning 10% less than their Scottish peers per hour on average. The gap widens further when all full time and part time jobs are included, the average annual wage in Moray £26,750 compared to £29,842 in Scotland.3 The gender pay gap remains a serious issue, the Moray Economic Strategy 2022 reporting 16% in Moray compared to the Scottish average of 13%.4 Moray also has a lower proportion of people employed in highly skilled occupations compared to the national level, with 35% in Moray at SOC 1-3 compared with 44% in Scotland, and a higher concentration of employment in sectors with relatively low wages. 65% of Morays residents aged 16-64 have a qualification at Higher level or above compared to 68% nationally, and the share of residents with a degree or same level professional qualification is 24% compared to 31% for Scotland.4 Research conducted by Skills Development Scotland indicate jobs of the future are going to require higher-level qualifications, with 43% of the Moray regions greatest requirement at SCQF levels 7-10.2 Moray, along with the rest of the Highlands and Islands, has historically seen a significant outward migration of young people. A HIE commissioned report titled “Young people in the Highlands and Islands: Maximising Opportunities” (2018) 5, found 1 World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2023. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_2023.pdf 2 Regional Skills Assessment Moray Growth Deal 2023, Skills Development Scotland https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/media/4jakvfxz/rsa-growth-deal-report-moray.pdf 3 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2023 ONS https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/1946157424/report.aspx 4 Moray Economic Strategy 2022, Towards Future Prosperity and Inclusive Growth http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file147200.pdf 5 Young People and Highlands and Islands: Maximising Opportunities, Nov 2018, HIE https://www.hie.co.uk/media/3007/youngpluspeopleplusandplustheplushighlandsplusandplusislandspl us-plusmaximisingplusopportunitiesplus-plusreport.pdf Page 18
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Page 7 of 142 that in Moray, 18% of the region’s population were age 15-30 compared to the national average of 21% and 17% in the Highlands and Islands a whole. The report suggests lack of opportunities in education and employment as contributing factors, with 80% of 20–24-year-olds studying in universities outside of the Highlands and Islands, and a large proportion of those students going on to pursue careers in other regions. Raising Achievement and Improving Outcomes Improving achievement and attainment is a key strategic focus for the local authority, as children in Moray currently perform below the Scottish average in attainment of Curriculum for Excellence competencies. Data obtained from Moray Councils Public Performance Report6 shows that in 2023, 75% of Moray children across primary 1, 4 and 7 achieved the expected levels in numeracy, while the national average is 80%. Also in 2023, 87% of Moray children at third level and 58% at fourth level achieved the expected levels in numeracy, whereas the national average is 90% and 63% respectively. Numeracy is a basic enabler to achieving qualifications in STEM and if children are behind in this by the time they reach secondary school, then this makes attainment in line or above the Scottish average ever more challenging. While there has been significant improvement in achievement levels in numeracy from 2019 to 2023 (the gap closing from 14% to 5%), further work is required to ensure Moray children perform at the same level as those nationally. Performance data also shows that the number of school leavers attaining passes at SCQF level 6 (Higher) is less than the national average, with 45% of Moray students achieving 3 or more passes compared to the national average of 52%, and 29% achieving 5 or more passes compared to the national average of 39%.6 According to 2023 Scottish Qualification Authority (SQA) attainment statistics, Moray’s students are less likely to attain in STEM related subjects than in Scotland, with the percentage of Moray students attaining grades A-C at SCQF level 5 (National 5) significantly lower than those in Scotland. Statistics also show a downward trend in STEM attainment in Moray from 2021-2023.7 While the number of Moray school leavers entering employment and further education remains above national average, the number of Moray School leavers entering Higher Education falls consistently below that of national peers. In 2023, 29% of Moray school leavers entered employment compared to 27% nationally, whereas 33% of Moray school leavers entered higher education compared to 40% nationally).6 Creating more appeal for STEM related jobs is important to facilitate the evolution of skills required by the future jobs market, and to ensure Moray is resilient in the future. As evident from the trends in attainment levels from broad education through to senior phase and into leaver destinations, for positive attitudes to be embedded in terms of 6 Public Performance Report for Primary and Secondary Schools, School Session 2022/23, Moray Council Education http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file154769.pdf 7 Attainment Statistics, Scottish Qualification Authority, 2023 https://www.sqa.org.uk/sqa/105123.html Page 19
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Page 8 of 142 STEM, this culture change needs to begin at a pre-school age and then sustained through the young person’s progression through education. Overcoming Barriers to Engagement While there is increasing focus on STEM education for young people, both at a national and local level, there persists significant barriers that prevent participation in STEM activities. A 2022 report by Ekosgen prepared on behalf of Education Scotland 8 presented key findings relating to the structural barriers to STEM engagement. The report cited financial pressures within schools and across local authorities as a key contributor, as well as building capacity within systems, and increasing the confidence and skills of practitioners in the delivery of STEM related topics. Lack of STEM resources and availability of flexible learning spaces within school settings was highlighted as a significant barrier to STEM participation, as well as the need for stronger links between schools and partner organisations. These findings are consistent with attitudes in Moray. There has been significant engagement with parents, pupils and education staff, as the project has sought to identify challenges, opportunities, and to obtain feedback on solutions proposed. To date, • 140 education staff have been consulted throughout project development, including ELC practitioners, childminders, and primary and secondary teachers. • 253 children have been engaged, including responses from pupil surveys, classroom visits and STEM workshops. • 109 parents have been consulted through public engagement events, STEM taster sessions and feedback from targeted surveys. • Examples of engagement surveys are included in Appendix 12. Education staff generally agreed that budgeting constraints, staff time, and competing priorities limit the extend of STEM learning in settings. Feedback obtained through consultation within the sector highlighted a specific need for ongoing access to STEM resources, training, and materials, and while there was considerable support for access to specialist learning environments, barriers associated with transportation was highlighted as a concern. Both practitioners and learners agreed they would like more opportunities to experience STEM in relation to the world of work and engage with local industry, and that while significant progress has been made in connecting education with employment through Developing the Young Workforce (DYW) initiatives, there are less opportunities for early years settings. Parental feedback paints a similar picture, with a large proportion of those interviewed viewing STEM as an important and essential part of their children’s learning. Families 8 The Structural Barriers to STEM Engagement Final Report for Education Scotland, 2022, Ekosgen https://education.gov.scot/media/axpjte2j/ekosgen-structural-barriers-to-stem-engagement-year-3- report-exec-summary-nov-2022.pdf/ Page 20
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Page 9 of 142 indicated they would like to participate in STEM engagements however cited lack of opportunity as a barrier. Common answers when asked what type of STEM opportunities audiences would like to see include outdoor learning, activities with a focus on renewable energy and a “science centre type experience.” Science centres have been long been known as the focal point within a community for STEM engagements, providing opportunities for schools and families alike to participate in STEM activities and delivering outreach programmes within localities. Aberdeen Science Centre is the closest of these institutions to Moray, however with a 2-hour commuting time from the centre of Moray, schools find it incredibly challenging to engage with this kind of high quality, inspirational experience. The final threat to the skills make-up of the region is therefore rural in nature. Children in Moray need to have access to the same type of high-quality learning experiences as their peers out with Moray. Given the rural nature of the region, accessibility to infrastructure within Moray is also a challenge, and children in all parts of Moray need to have access to the same or similar infrastructure and learning within a reasonable distance no matter their location. How will we fix the issues? Economic Growth and Opportunities for Skills Development The Moray Growth Deal will deliver transformational investment to drive economic growth across the region, supporting major new developments in key sectors of health, aerospace, advanced technology, business enterprise, and manufacturing. The deal involves eight strategic projects, including the Business Enterprise Hub (BEH), Digital Health and Care Innovation (DHI) project, the Manufacturing Innovation Centre for Moray (MICM), and the re-scoped Moray Aerospace and Advanced Technology Innovation Centre (MAATIC) These projects will bring significant employment opportunities to Moray and for Moray’s residents to benefit, increasing the STEM skills of the future workforce is critical. Education and Curriculum Reform The Scottish Government and local authorities remain committed to working together in realising the ambition of achieving equity and excellence for all Scotland’s children and young people. The International Council of Education Advisors (ICEA) view the national discussion and Hayward review of assessment as providing the opportunity for fresh and innovative ideas for improvement. Following key national review of the National Improvement Framework (NIF) 2023 and in line with findings of wider national reviews included in Professor Ken Muir’s Report 9, and the National Discussion on Education10, focus is now on achievement rather than attainment, where this was seen to be more in line with the four capacities of Curriculum for Excellence. 9 Putting learners at the centre: towards a future vision for Scottish Education, 2022, Professor Ken Muir https://www.gov.scot/publications/putting-learners-centre-towards-future-vision-scottish-education/ 10 All Learners in Scotland Matter – national discussion on education: final report, 2023 Page 21
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Page 10 of 142 The Learning for sustainability: action plan 2023 to 2030 11 aims to build inspiring movement for change so every 3 to 18 place of education becomes a sustainable learning setting by 2030 and is a key strategic driver in the future of education, both nationally and at the local level. The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (Incorporation) (Scotland) Act 2024 gained Royal Assent in January 2024.12 The Act will ensure that children’s rights are respected and protected in the law in Scotland, and all public bodies in Scotland will have to comply with the legislation. Significant efforts have been made across Moray Education in recent years to build and maintain improvement in attainment at Broad General Education (BGE) level. Among these actions is the development of Moray Improvement Groups, a collaborative effort across agencies to support revised educational strategies. Central officers lead on the development of core progressions and learning pathways across curriculum areas, including STEM. In line with the Scottish Governments Framework for Recovery and Accelerating Progress13, Core Stretch Aims have been set out in relation to achievement and attainment. Early Intervention There has been significant research undertaken in recent years into what factors influence a child’s engagement with STEM. The 2013 ASPIRES report by Kings College London is a significant and long-term study into young people’s science and careers aspirations from age 10 to 1414. The report found that young people’s attitudes towards STEM are consistent from age 10 to 14, and that those who do not express interest by age 10 are unlikely to develop STEM aspirations by the age of 14. The report acknowledged that STEM engagements must begin before secondary level and highlighted the importance of primary STEM education. Indeed, there is growing scientific consensus about the importance of implementing STEM education at a much younger age. According to the 2017 report by the Joan Ganz Cooney Centre, implementing STEM education at an early stage encourages the development of key skills relating to problem solving, trial and error and critical thinking skills, and can lay the groundwork for a deeper understanding of difficult concepts at a later stage.15 https://www.gov.scot/publications/learners-scotland-matter-national-discussion-summary-report/ 11 Learning for sustainability: action plan 2023 to 2030, Scottish Government, 2023 https://www.gov.scot/publications/target-2030-movement-people-planet-prosperity/ 12 A Summary United Nations Convention on the Rights of a Child, Unicef, 2022 https://www.unicef.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/UNCRC_summary-1_1.pdf 13 Scottish Attainment Challenge: Framework for Recovery and Accelerating Progress, 2023, Scottish Government. https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-attainment-challenge-framework-recovery-accelerating- progress-2/pages/3/ 14 ASPIRES Young People’s science and career aspirations, age 10-14, Kings College London 2013 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/64130521/ASPIRES_Report_2013.pdf 15 STEM Starts Early: Grounding science, technology, engineering and math education in early childhood, Joan Ganz Cooney Centre, 2017 https://joanganzcooneycenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jgcc_stemstartsearly_final.pdf Page 22
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Page 11 of 142 A growing number of studies show a correlation between early experiences with STEM subjects and later success in those subjects or in school generally. The 2015 report Transforming the Workforce for Children Birth through Age 816 states that children who engage in scientific activities from an early age develop positive attitudes towards science, which also correlate with later science achievement, and they are more likely to pursue STEM expertise and careers later. While there is no single approach that can be taken to adequately prepare today’s children to enter tomorrow’s workplace, the foundation work is already being put in place in Moray that this Early Years STEM initiative can further build on. In line with the Early Intervention approach taken across wider services in Moray, STEM learning activities will be initiated at the Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) stage. This acknowledges that to increase attainment in STEM we need engage with children in the early years setting to generate interest in the STEM curriculum once the children are older. To do this requires a multi-pronged approach beginning before children start school and sustained through primary and secondary school education levels. While work in Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) is further developing, a good start has been made with the implementation of Talking Tubs to stimulate discussion about different vocations including those STEM related. This links to early work with practitioners around gender imbalance training that ties in with the child centred pedagogy approach. Early Years STEM, through investment in training, resources, and creation of specialist learning environments, will further enhance the awareness of STEM related careers in early year’s settings. Learning for Sustainability and Climate Awareness Outdoor learning continues to be a focus for ELC settings in Moray, with key initiatives developed in recent years promoting STEM and learning for sustainability. With increasing focus on climate change and the shift to green energy, the launch of the LfS Action Plan 2023 to 203017, and the Moray Councils commitment to achieving net zero by 2030, creating more opportunities for outdoor learning, environmental education and learning for sustainability has never been more important. Early Years STEM will address this challenge through the creation of a specialist outdoor learning facility and outreach programme. Collaborative Approach and Partnership Working Addressing these challenges is a complex endeavour and responsibility cannot lie on the Moray Council and Education Sector alone. Raising the aspirations of young people in STEM and giving them the skills and confidence to pursue STEM subjects 16 Transforming the Workforce for Children Birth Through Age 8: A Unifying Foundation 2015, Institute of Medicine and National Research Council https://www.fcd-us.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/IOMNRCFullReport2015.pdf 17 Learning for sustainability: action plan 2023 to 2030, Scottish Government, 2023 https://www.gov.scot/publications/target-2030-movement-people-planet-prosperity/ Page 23
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Page 12 of 142 throughout education and into employment, relies on a coordinated, cohesive effort within the whole STEM ecosystem. Early Years STEM will work collaboratively with key delivery partners within Morays Education Sector, as well as local employers and other Moray Growth Deal Projects to build capacity within the education system and deliver learning opportunities that are dynamic and flexible in response to the evolving priorities within the sector. This work has already been initiated through the implementation of a STEM Moray Strategy Group, whose focus is to develop a coordinated and cohesive offer that maps STEM activity in the region, addresses the gaps in STEM provision and creates new and exciting opportunities for children and families to engage with STEM learning. Participants in the steering group have offered letters of support included in Appendix 14, that highlight the nature of the collaboration and how partners contribution will facilitate engagements beyond age 8. Early Years STEM continues to engage with stakeholders at a local and national level to identify lessons learned, synergies and create opportunities for collaboration. This includes other Growth Deal STEM projects such as the Argyll and Bute STEM Hubs, and the Newton Room development delivered as part of the Outer Hebrides Campus re-development project. Other stakeholders and initiatives engaged with Early Years STEM include Techfest, Energy Skills Partnership, the Catapult Network, and Prospers STEMOVATORS (formerly SCDI’s Young Engineers and Science Club Programme). Increasing Science Capital across the STEM Ecosystem The ecological systems model suggests that children develop within nested systems of influence, with the child at the centre.18 This complex intertwined web of relationships, experiences and environments recognises that to successfully integrate STEM learning and change children’s perceptions of STEM, all factors must be considered in equal measure. This concept is further reiterated in the 2022 Structural Barriers to STEM Engagement Report19, which speaks to the complexity of the learner environment and the numerous influences facing the young person in their STEM learning journey. The concept of “science capital” has been gaining significant traction over the years. The Enterprising Science partnership of BP, Kings College London and the Science Museum Group identified eight key dimensions of science capital20: science literacy; science-related attitudes and dispositions; knowledge about the transferability of science; science media consumption; participation in out-of-school learning contexts; 18 STEM Starts Early: Grounding science, technology, engineering and math education in early childhood, Joan Ganz Cooney Centre, 2017 https://joanganzcooneycenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jgcc_stemstartsearly_final.pdf 19 The Structural Barriers to STEM Engagement Final Report for Education Scotland, 2022, Ekosgen https://education.gov.scot/media/axpjte2j/ekosgen-structural-barriers-to-stem-engagement-year-3- report-exec-summary-nov-2022.pdf 20 Science Capital Made Clear, Enterprising Science Partnership, 2015 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/49685107/Science_Capital_Made_Clear.pdf Page 24
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Page 13 of 142 family science skills, knowledge, and qualifications; knowing people in science related roles; and talking about science in everyday life. Science capital recognises the need for STEM engagement beyond that of the school environment. Schools have traditionally been the place for children to develop disciplinary thinking, however, schools are not the only place in a community where education takes place; they exist within a community’s learning ecosystem. Schools, businesses, science museums, libraries, and the home are settings that make up a community’s learning ecosystem, and this subset of places is designed to support the development of STEM disciplinary ways of thinking. These extended education contexts are an important and necessary part of the STEM learning ecosystem as they provide opportunities to explore STEM content outside of formal school settings. They are also known to be effective in engaging families with STEM activities, leading to strengthening of science capital in families. The 2013 ASPIRES report by Kings College London found that the chances of a young person going on to study STEM are greatly influenced by the amount of “science capital” in the family. Parental influence, particularly in the early years, is paramount to nurturing a child’s aspirations in STEM and to fully embed STEM learning and change the way STEM is perceived in the region, there needs to be a more focused and coordinated effort for families to engage with STEM, in both formal and informal education settings. Parental Engagement is a key strategic focus for the local authority, with increasing opportunities for parents to engage with the curriculum in early learning and school settings, as highlighted in Moray Council’s Parental Involvement and Engagement (PIE) strategy. STEM has seen a resurgence in Moray in recent years as communities recognise the importance of STEM based learning across all ages and sectors. The Moray Councils Library and Learning Centre team have been particularly successful in engaging young people with STEM, through delivery of coding workshops, digital explorer’s programmes, and the provision of STEM loan kits to the public. The Moray Councils Adult & Family Learning team have also made significant efforts to engage families with STEM, through delivery of national programmes such as Multiply and family focused STEM workshops in nursery and school settings. However, access to environments, resources and training limits the extent to which teams can engage with audiences. STEM learning opportunities extend beyond the local authority and education sector; as local museums, discovery centres and community hubs also deliver STEM related activities and experiences. While these activities highlight the regions commitment to learning and appetite for STEM engagements, Moray needs a dedicated informal STEM learning environment that can bridge the gap between schools, employers, families, and the wider community. Early Years STEM will invest in state-of-the-art facilities in community settings across Moray. These spaces will offer core learning equipment and digital infrastructure that will allow children, families, and the wider community of all ages to engage with STEM. The environments will include interactive exhibitions and experiences for self-led, child Page 25
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Page 14 of 142 centred learning opportunities, thereby offering a “science centre type experience” that can be delivered through Moray Growth Deal funding and sustained within existing Moray Council resources. The facilities will also offer accessibility to community groups, STEM clubs and Moray Council CLD teams to deliver STEM learning to audiences, including early years. Employers, STEM Ambassadors and community volunteers will also be engaged to deliver STEM learning within these facilities, where access to infrastructure has previously limited these types of interactions. Creating educational facilities that offers equitable access to education settings, families, employers and the wider community, the Early Years STEM project aims to create an ecosystem of STEM learning that encourages multi agency participation and changes the way STEM is perceived in the region. Who is involved? The Early Years STEM Project Board provides overall governance for the project and is made up of representatives from the following organisations: • Moray Council • Moray College UHI • The University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI) • Skills Development Scotland (SDS) • Developing the Young Workforce (DYW Moray) • NHS Grampian • Boeing • Gordon and MacPhail • Aberdeen Science Centre (ASC) • Education Scotland • SSERC How did we identify the solution? A series of options had been developed and fully considered by the Project Board in the formation and design of the proposed Early Years STEM project. These were later refined to five core long listed options at Outline Business Case stage, of which this was later reduced and refined to a shortlisted three options during the options appraisal for the Full Business Case. The Long List When developing the long list of options, the elements with potential to form part of the overall offer within the Early Years STEM project, and the impact of one or more of them not proceeding, were considered. These options included: Page 26
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Page 15 of 142 • Option 1: business as usual • Option 2 (Minimum): a hub provision in each early learning and primary setting, a mobile offering and partnership activity • Option 3 (Intermediate): one central provision, a mobile and outreach offering and partnership activity. • Option 4 (Intermediate): a provision in targeted locations across Moray, a mobile and outreach offering and partnership activity. • Option 5 (Maximum): a provision in each ASG in Moray, a mobile offering and partnership activity. A variety of solutions, delivery options, funding arrangements and implementation plans were considered. Each option was considered in respect to its contributions to each of the six stated investment objectives, and the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) of strategic fit, value for money, achievability, supply side capacity and affordability. The short list As the business case progressed to Full Business Case (FBC) stage, three short-listed options were carried forward: Option 2, Option 3, and Option 4. Option 1 was discounted (but presented as the “Business as Usual” status quo option as a baseline comparator) as it presented little evidence of impact, is un-coordinated and duplicates activity amongst providers, and the demand for Option 5 has been tested in engagement with education staff who indicated limited utilisation of fixed facilities in rural areas (with a preference for flexible mobile solutions). Neither Option represented a value for money solution, with duplication in Option 1 and underutilisation in Option 5 and were therefore discounted from the economic appraisal. As such, the economic appraisal has been conducted on the shortlisted three options. Preferred Option Key findings: economic appraisal Total costs (including the embodied and operational costs of carbon) are provided at Net Present Value (NPV) for each option as below. Option 4 presents the largest costs of the three options, predominantly because there is a larger scope of activity included within this option than Option 2 or Option 3. Comparison of Options: Costs (,000, NPV) Option/Cost Total Project Costs Carbon Costs Total Costs 1-Business as Usual - - - 2 3,522 148 3,671 3 4,740 128 4,868 4-Preferred Option 5,125 1058 5,233 An estimate of the benefits arising from each option for the proposed development has been made. These are the same indicators that were assessed at OBC stage, namely: projected uplifts in salary, the indirect and induced benefits arising from this uplift, and Page 27
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Page 16 of 142 the savings to the public purse resulting from unemployment prevention. These benefits have been assessed at the Moray, Scotland and UK spatial levels, the summary of which is provided below. At each level, Option 4 delivers the highest number of benefits within each of the three geographies. Comparison of Options: Benefits (,000, NPV) 2021/22 to 2043/44: 10-year Benefits Stream Option/Benefit Moray Level Scotland Level UK Level 1-Business as Usual - - - 2 6,473 8,976 19,060 3 8,140 11,274 23,890 4-Preferred Option 10,992 14,944 30,391 To provide assurance that the proposed development represents value for money (VfM), a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) has been applied at the Moray, Scotland, and UK levels. As can be seen in the following table, Option 4 presents the highest BCR at each spatial level, and considerably more so at the UK level. In Moray, Option 4 has a BCR of 2.1, compared to 1.8 for Option 2 and 1.7 for Option 3. Comparison of Options: BCR 2021/22 to 2043/44: 10-year Benefits Stream Option/Benefit Moray Level Scotland Level UK Level 1-Business as Usual - - - 2 1.8 2.4 5.2 3 1.7 2.3 4.9 4-Preferred Option 2.1 2.9 5.8 The performance of the options was also tested for a 12-year benefit stream. This produced higher BCRs in each case. For example, each of the three options in Moray had a BCR of more than 2, with Option 4 having a BCR of 3.1. An assessment of the GVA and employment impacts arising from project expenditures (i.e. the capital spend, revenue spend and employment impacts relating directly to the project) on suppliers and the wider supply chain in Moray has been conducted. These have been expressed in terms of FTE job years and GVA. Option 4 delivers the highest number of job years (39), reflecting the higher number of project staff required than in the other two options. The GVA impacts for Option 3 and Option 4 are very similar at around £1.5 million with Option 3 presenting slightly higher impacts being realised. Employment Impacts in Moray from Project Expenditure (FTE Job Years) Option/Benefit Capital Spend Revenue Spend Project Staff Total 1-Business as Usual - - - - 2 3 <1 8 11 3 16 4 14 34 4-Preferred Option 17 2 20 39 Page 28
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Page 17 of 142 GVA Impacts in Moray from Project Expenditure (£,000) Option/Benefit Capital Spend Revenue Spend Total 1-Business as Usual - - - 2 94 36 131 3 1,244 257 1,501 4-Preferred Option 1,328 166 1,494 Key findings: wider socio-economic impacts To appraise the wider benefits arising from the proposed development, an assessment of the more qualitative benefits outlined in the Benefits Realisation Plan (BRP) was conducted. These were thematically categorised across the themes expressed in the BRP, namely: Productivity; People; Population; Place; and Fairer Scotland Duty. The expected benefits of each option were scored individually, based on the alignment of each option with the feasibility and magnitude to which each option delivers on these benefits. Summative narrative explaining the scores has been provided on a thematic basis. Option 4 scored the highest across each of the themes, with the proposed delivery of a bespoke Environmental Education Centre and proposed targeted STEM facilities having significant influence on the scoring of the benefits derived from Option 4. This is in addition to the network of satellite sites, the mobile offer, and the robust outreach offering expressed in other options. Theme Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Raw (R) and Weighted (W) Scores R W R W R W Productivity 3 0.15 7 0.35 8 0.4 People 12 1 20 1.65 30 2.35 Population 1 0.05 2 0.1 4 0.2 Place 1 0.05 12 0.6 14 0.7 Fairer Scotland Duty 3 0.3 8 0.6 10 0.75 Total Score 20 1.55 49 3.3 66 4.4 Weighted % 31% 66% 88% Key findings: carbon assessment A carbon assessment of the preferred option (Option 4) has been provided, which considers the embodied carbon and operational carbon emissions arising from the proposed development. Following the estimation of these emissions, they have been costed using monetised carbon values at 2028 prices, and these costs have been included in the overarching cost-benefit analysis. Taking the central estimates for monetised carbon prices (at 2028 values): • the estimated total embodied carbon cost for the project is £108,101; • the estimated total operational carbon cost for the project is £148,901; and • therefore, the total estimated carbon cost for the project is £257,002. Page 29
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Page 18 of 142 Carbon Emissions Total estimated carbon emissions (tCO2e) Total estimated monetised carbon values (2028 prices) Low Central High Embodied 397 £54,050 £108,101 £162,151 Operational 547 £74,450 £148,901 £223,351 Total 945 £128,501 £257,002 £385,503 Overall findings: the preferred option Option 4 is the preferred option due to its ability to deliver against the stated investment objectives and contribute to the realisation of economic and wider qualitative benefits. Summary of Option 4: 2021/22 to 2043/44: 10-year Benefits Stream NPV and BCR Total Project Cost (£m) £6.395m NPV of Project Cost (£m) £5.233m NPV of Project Benefits (£m; Moray) £10.922m Benefit Cost Ratio (Moray) 2.1 NPV of Project Benefits (£m, Scotland) £14.994m Benefit Cost Ratio (Scotland) 2.9 NPV of Project Benefits (£m, UK) £30.391m Benefit Cost Ratio (UK) 5.8 For comparison, the Benefit Cost Ratios (BCRs) for the alternative possible options were also appraised. These were 5.2 (Option 2) and 4.9 (Option 3) at the UK level, with Option 4 having a BCR of 5.8. At the Scotland level, Option 4 has a BCR of 2.9 compared to 2.4 (Option 2) and 2.3 (Option 3). At the Moray level, Option 4 would produce a BCR of 2.1 compared to 1.8 (Option 2) and 1.7 (Option 3). What is the solution? The solution is a whole systems approach to address the challenges laid out in earlier sections of this Full Business Case. Early Years STEM aims to develop a STEM learning ecosystem in the Moray area, through the creation of specialist learning environments and experiences, access to training and resources, and the creation of a STEM learning network involving Moray Council staff, key delivery partners, and volunteers from industry and the wider community. The concept focuses on mapping, collecting, and enhancing the STEM in Moray, to create STEM communities and provide opportunities for young people across all levels. Specifically, the solution will see investment in infrastructure to support a programme of learning applicable to all age groups but with particular focus on the age 3-8 bracket. Infrastructure includes physical, digital, and mobile learning environments. Page 30
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Page 19 of 142 The project will see a comprehensive package of investment summarised in Figure 1 that delivers against the key components of the STEM ecosystem. STEM Centre Network This package of work will see the creation of state-of-the-art facilities hosted within community settings across Moray. Each facility will offer core learning equipment and digital infrastructure that will allow learners of all ages to engage with the STEM curriculum. A specialist teaching space that will act as a shared STEM resource for local nurseries, schools, and community groups. As the focus of this initiative is to engage with early learners and the influential systems in their life, each environment will host a dedicated early years learning space offering an open ended and child centred experience that encourages family engagement and inter-generational learning. Experiences may include physical interactive exhibits, investigation stations, maker-space facilities, role-play areas, digital opportunities, and any other type of content. The final solution will be developed in consultation with key stakeholders and user groups, supported by an exhibition and interpretation design partner appointed to progress design and fit out of the physical spaces. Through a Moray wide approach, a distinctive feature of this work package is to address rurality as a barrier to participation in STEM activities. The preferred option at Outline Business Case (OBC) stage focused on a provision in each Associated School Group (ASG) in Moray however, following risk identification, stakeholder consultation and options appraisal, the agreed scope taken forward in this Full Business Case is a fixed facility in Elgin, Forres and Buckie with a mobile “pop-up” offer serving the remaining ASG areas. This change in scope recognises transportation as a barrier to participation in rural areas, and the value for money of fixed facilities in areas where utilisation may be limited. As part of the options appraisal process, redevelopment of existing spaces within community settings was identified as a priority for site selection, as the project seeks to reduce operational costs, carbon emissions and maximise community benefit. Figure 1 Early Years STEM Project Scope Page 31
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Page 20 of 142 Elgin STEM Centre As part of Phase 1 activity, the first STEM centre will be hosted within Moray’s Central Public Library at Elgin, Cooper Park. The public library is seen as having great potential for implementing informal STEM education. Libraries have long been the pillar of communities, providing equitable access and learning opportunities to a diverse group of people. Libraries have also been known to bridge STEM learning with schools as well as in the home environment. The Early Years STEM Project has sought to collaborate with Moray’s Library Network to enhance STEM learning in Moray. This partnership seeks to deliver mutually aligned learning objectives while sharing resources where possible, through co-location, provision of specialist equipment and support from staff. Current proposals will see renovation of the former drill hall into a Children’s STEM Discovery Zone and Community Learning Hub, as well as redevelopment of key functional areas within the building necessary to host the STEM space. This will be the largest space within the Network and will serve as a focal point for early years STEM education, delivering innovative STEM learning experiences and coordinating STEM activity across the region. Early architectural concepts are depicted in Figures 2 & 3. Figure 2 Early Concept Proposals Elgin Library Figure 3 Early Concept Proposals Elgin Library The Community Learning Hub will offer a flexible scalable space with core learning equipment suitable for delivery of STEM focused workshops. This will be a shared space available for the Library, Learning Centre, and Adult and Family Learning teams Page 32
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Page 21 of 142 to deliver learning programmes, including after school activities, thereby facilitating inter-generational learning and maximising community benefit. The STEM Discovery Zone will host a series of interactive exhibitions and experiences, a space where children, educators and families can get hands on with equipment and explore STEM subjects in an integrated and creative way. The environment will offer an open-ended, child centred experience that encourages family engagement and inter-generational learning. The Early Years STEM project will collaborate with other Growth Deal led projects to offer aligned learning experiences, including STEM focused visits and experiences at the partner locations. With the Elgin STEM Centre offering age-appropriate, early years learning experiences, and industry focused experiences offered at partner sites, this will support development of STEM learning pathways from early years through to Broad General Education (BGE) and beyond. As the STEM learning centre will be based in a community focused environment, community groups will be engaged to access the STEM learning centre and deliver community led STEM experiences, ensuring the centre is used to its full potential. Local STEM Providers will also be engaged to host STEM learning experiences at the centre. The ambition is to create a community based educational facility offering STEM focused experiences, delivered by a multi-agency collaboration that includes dedicated staff, partner providers and community and industry volunteers. A letter of support from the Moray Council library service is included in Appendix 14. Forres STEM Centre Early Years STEM is in active discussion with the Leanchoil Trust to host a dedicated STEM centre within the renovated Leanchoil Hospital in Forres21. The Trust is embarking on an ambitious project to transform a unique listed building and surrounding landscape into a community focused Health and Wellbeing Centre. The centre will offer activities and services to support wellbeing, social engagement, volunteering, employment, and learning, bringing enduring benefit to the people of Forres and its rural communities. The vision for this STEM space is aligned to the Elgin Facility, with the creation of an early year’s interactive learning space and community learning hub. This will be a shared resource, with the Moray Council STEM Team delivering programmes to the target audience, and the Trust accessing facilities for the benefit of the wider Forres Community. This facility will have a strong emphasis on health and wellbeing, outdoor education, and digital technology, due to the nature of the facility, location within a woodland setting and opportunity to link with the Digital Health and Care Innovation Project. A letter of support from the Leanchoil Trust is included in Appendix 14. 21 The Leanchoil Trust https://www.leanchoiltrust.org/the-plans/ Page 33
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Page 22 of 142 Buckie STEM Centre Planning for the Buckie facility is still under development however a preferred location has been identified. The community hall above Buckie library is a vacant council owned facility, and proposals will see this space transformed into an active learning environment that is aligned with the vision for the Forres and Elgin facilities. Development of the Buckie facility is anticipated to begin in 2028; therefore, site options will continue to be identified and reviewed throughout the project. For this FBC, cost estimates and benefits appraisals will be progressed on the assumption of Buckie Community Town Hall as the preferred site. Educational Programme Key to the successful of this project is the ability to build upon a comprehensive learning programme aligned to Scotland’s Curriculum for Excellence that offers progression from early years through to broad general education. Early Years STEM will work collaboratively and iteratively with partners and education staff to develop learning content that covers the core curricular areas of Science, Technology and Numeracy while introducing career pathways in the context of Moray’s local economy. The team will adopt an inter-disciplinary learning (IDL) approach that integrates literacy, health & wellbeing, learning for sustainability and careers education. Learning materials will complement existing Moray educational practices, including Moray science & technology progressions currently under development within Moray Council Education. The Education Programme will offer both specialist content and simple activities that can be easily repeated by education staff in schools and nurseries. Early Years STEM Coordinators will develop the curricular materials, supported by STEM partners and an exhibition and interpretation design consultant appointed to design and deliver the learning spaces. Information relating to the educational offering, STEM learning centres, mobile solution and partner activity will be included within a digital portal, developed as part of phase 1 activity. Glasgow Science Centre has been appointed to undertake a design process for the interior fit out of the learning space, as well as development of an educational programme. A Stage 2 Concept Design Report is included in Appendix 10, and highlights the projects approach to learning content. STEM Coordinator Resource In successfully implementing STEM learning and creating a STEM ecosystem in the Moray area, it is critical to have the support of knowledgeable and enthusiastic staff, committed to changing the perceptions of STEM. An example of good practice is the Raising Aspiration in Science pilot project (RAiSE) launched in Moray in 2016. The Wood Foundation, Scottish Government and Moray Council jointly funded this 23- month £160,000 project, with the primary expense being employing a Primary Science Development Officer. The focus of the programme was to increase competence and confidence in practitioners in the delivery of STEM curriculum. Page 34
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Page 23 of 142 An external evaluation of the RAiSE programme was conducted at the national level by Glasgow University and found that of those children involved with RAiSE, 87% had enjoyed more challenge and 77% had increased their STEM aspirations. 22 This is a high impact for a relatively small project over a short timeframe and demonstrates the significant impact STEM staff can make. A dedicated team of STEM Coordinators will be employed to manage activity across all elements of the project, including outreach, STEM delivery at the centres, and co- ordination of partnership activity. The STEM office will support workforce development, delivering training to staff across all Associated School Groups (ASG)s and creating a network of STEM champions from early learning and school settings throughout Moray. This work will build on the success of the ELC Moray STEM in the Outdoor Project, the existing trained champions’ embedding a “cluster approach” and supporting early stages of workforce development. Employing this approach, the STEM office will also create a network of community STEM champions including parents and members of the public. Recognising the budgetary pressures and time constraints faced by education staff, EY STEMs approach to staff training will be as flexible as possible. This includes virtual twilight sessions, recorded sessions, and in-person sessions at a STEM centre, ELC or classroom setting. Moray Council will fund revenue requirements, however given the budgeting pressures in today’s climate; this will be a limited resource that can be delivered within the existing revenue budget. Reducing the number of facilities and minimising operational costs through co-location has allowed the project team to re-profile the OBC revenue budget to include a dedicated staffing resource as indicated in the financial section of this business case. The coordinator resource is critical to delivery of business case outcomes. Delivery options are being considered and include either recruitment of project staff employed directly by the Moray Council, or outsourcing delivery through a Contract for Services. Under either delivery option, contract management will sit with the Moray Council. Mobile Offering A distinct feature of this Early Years STEM initiative is to address rurality as a barrier to participation. Early Years STEM draws inspiration from successful programmes such as Glasgow Science Centres Powering the Future on Tour, Cambridge Science Centre’s Pop-up Science, and the Science Skills Academy’s Pop-up Newton Room, and will develop a mobile solution that parallels and extends the STEM Learning Centre into all ASGs in Moray. A range of mobile facilities and equipment, including portable exhibits, will be developed that can be transported to and used in any suitable 22 Raising Aspirations in Science Education (RAiSE) Pilot Final Evaluation Report 2019, University of Glasgow https://www.thewoodfoundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/RAiSE-evaluation-report- finalised-.pdf Page 35
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Page 24 of 142 venue including schools, community halls, and business premises, throughout Moray. This will be achieved through the purchase of a medium sized electrical vehicle that can be driven using a standard UK driving license. To generate excitement and showcase the learning offer, the vehicle will have specialist branding and fit out. Figure 3 depicts the preferred precedent for the STEM vehicle. Figure 3 STEM Vehicle Preferred Precedent Outreach Offering Phase 1 will also see development and delivery of a central repository of STEM resources, available for Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) and primary settings to borrow for classroom-based STEM activity. This will be developed and delivered in collaboration with UHI Moray and other partners, with each organisation hosting a suite of kits tailored to the needs of the Moray region. STEM coordinators will facilitate engagements, bringing a themed kit to the ELC or primary setting, and providing training to ELC and teaching staff in its delivery. Environmental Sciences STEM Learning Centre This work package will see the creation of an Environmental Sciences STEM Learning Centre, developed, and delivered in partnership with a Local Environmental Charity. Wild Things are uniquely positioned to run a STEM Hub of this nature, due to their commitment as a charitable organisation to deliver environmental learning, experience working within Moray’s education network, and ability to sustain their organisation through access to ongoing external funding sources. The charity also delivers the added advantage of owning a fleet of buses that can be used to transport children from their settings to the centre. The proposal is to develop a vacant plot on Moray Council owned Common Good Land at Milbuies Country Park into an Environmental Sciences STEM Learning Centre. Moray Growth Deal funding will be used to develop the core infrastructure as depicted in figure 4, including education and parking facilities, green energy solutions, green infrastructure, and core learning equipment. Page 36
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Page 25 of 142 Figure 4 Wild Things Education Centre at Milbuies In line with the Moray Councils Climate Change Strategy and outcomes relating to learning for sustainability, activities that will be undertaken on the land include leading groups of learners in environmental exploration, and conservation. The aim of expanding their knowledge of environmental and biological sciences, furthering their appreciation for and care of the nature world, and inspiring young people to consider the wide-ranging career opportunities in the growing sector of environmental sciences. This innovative partnership with Wild Things will deliver against Early Years STEM targets in relation to STEM engagements, whilst also delivering Wild Things own environmental education activities in line with their charitable mission, which is to create mutually beneficial relationships between individuals, communities, and the natural world. The delivery mechanism for this development is still being explored, however it is anticipated that the site will be leased to and managed by Wild Things. STEM Grant Scheme Early Years STEM seeks to create a STEM ecosystem in the Moray area through the creation of a STEM Learning Network involving employers, higher education institutions, partner providers, museums, and community volunteers. A portion of Moray Growth Deal funding will be ring fenced to support specific activity relating to these partnerships. This will be in the form of an annual budget allowance that can delivered in the form of capital grants and provision of specialist equipment to support a diverse range of projects and initiatives throughout Moray. Working with partners such as Developing the Young Workforce, Moray College UHI and the private sector, employers will be engaged to host STEM activities and events at industry sites to allow young people to see for themselves STEM activity being brought to life, generate excitement, and interest in STEM and embed knowledge of the opportunities that are possible in Moray. Page 37
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Page 26 of 142 Community organisations and groups will have the opportunity to apply for funding to support a wide variety of STEM related projects and initiatives, such as makerspaces, Lego clubs, after school STEM clubs. Schools can apply for funding to purchase STEM materials that will enable delivery of STEM clubs and facilitate parental engagement. An outline criteria for the STEM Grant Scheme is included in Appendix 13. How much will it cost? The project will cost £6.4 million. This will be funded from £3.5 million of capital funding from the Scottish Government, with the Moray Council providing £1.3 million of capital and £1.6 million of revenue funding. How will it be delivered? The Early Years STEM Project will be delivered in phases over a 10-year period, beginning in 2024. Phase 1 2024 - 2025 Outreach Programme Elgin STEM Centre Mobile Solution Phase 2 2026 - 2028 Environmental Sciences STEM Centre Forres STEM Centre Buckie STEM Centre Phase 3 2029 – 2032 Ongoing Equipment Purchase STEM Grant Scheme How will the benefits accrue? To summarise how the benefits for this project will accrue it is easier to start at the end point, which is a workforce trained and qualified in STEM disciplines. This workforce will then be able to benefit from the opportunities of technological change and earn salaries that reflect the skilled nature of their jobs. This in turn increases the level of disposable income in the region and the well-trained workforce that makes Moray a place where businesses look to locate and invest. These benefits can only be realised 10-15 years from the date the project begins as the learner will have to go through further or higher education before entering the workforce. Throughout the life of the project, improvement in core curriculum for excellence competencies will be monitored against the pre-intervention baseline to ensure the intervention is responsive and dynamic to best practice and emerging trends. This will be done using achievement and attainment data on an annual basis. Participation and engagement levels will be monitored throughout the life of the project against key performance indicators as set out in the benefits realisation plan. Qualitative measures Page 38
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Page 27 of 142 in the form of learner feedback surveys and ongoing engagement with young people will provide assurance that the project is delivering against its objectives of raising aspirations and promoting positive careers perceptions in young people. While these benefits are for the end goal of providing well paid meaningful employment, the benefit to the individual of improved education throughout early years to adulthood cannot be underestimated. By improving attainment at all levels young people will be more self-confident, have higher self-esteem and improved opportunities throughout their life. Is it financially sustainable? Early Years STEM has sought to develop a sustainable delivery model for this project, through development of strategic partnerships, management arrangements and site selection that prioritises co-location, thereby reducing ongoing costs and supporting staffing requirements. Capital spend will be on redevelopment of existing buildings that are owned or managed by a service or community organisation. Operational costs for the spaces are minimal, as the project team have agreed with delivery partners a nominal contribution to utilities and management costs. Staffing costs present the greatest financial burden to Moray Council however these posts are considered value for money and critical to the success of the project. Should resource for staffing be removed at the end of the delivery period, activity undertaken throughout project delivery, including workforce development and the creation of a STEM learning network, the project would continue to deliver benefit. Any short falls in funding will be the responsibility of the Moray Council as lead delivery partner however additional funding will be sought in the form of in-kind contributions from employers, external grant funding sources and income generated from events and corporate hire of spaces. How does the project fit in the strategic landscape? At a local level, the project aligns with the following policies and strategies: • Moray Economic Strategy 2022 • Local Outcome Improvement Plan (LOIP) • Moray Council Corporate Plan 2024 • Elgin City Masterplan • Town Centre Improvement Plans • Moray Education National Improvement Framework Plan • Moray Council Parental Involvement and Engagement Strategy • Moray Children Services Plan Page 39
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Page 28 of 142 And at a national level: • STEM Strategy for Training and Education • National Improvement Framework and Improvement Plan • Hayward Review and the National Discussion on Education • Framework for Recovery and Acceleration Progress • United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child • Learning for Sustainability: action plan 2023 to 2030 • National Strategy for Economic Transformation • National Planning Framework 4 • Just Transition • Future Skills Action Plan • Realising the Ambition What else is happening in the region? One of the largest developments currently taking place in Moray is the development of the growth deal itself. This project is integral to the success of other projects within the deal. The Manufacturing Innovation Centre for Moray (MICM) is looking to work with businesses to help introduce new technology that will require STEM skills. The Digital Health & Care Innovation (DHI) project is looking to pilot innovative technology to revolutionise rural health care, again requiring STEM skills to implement and grow. While there is uncertainty around the direction of the proposed Moray Advanced Technology and Innovation Campus (MAATIC), it is anticipated that any alternative proposal will focus on skills and employment. The University of the Highlands and Islands STEM Outreach Programme is in delivery, with a dedicated STEM Coordinator employed for Moray and working collaboratively with Early Years STEM. The STEM Moray Strategy Group is working on development of an updated STEM strategy for Moray, taking into consideration opportunities and investments associated with Early Years STEM, Moray Growth Deal, and other partner developments. Alongside this and benefitting the Moray Growth Deal and the region is the £400 million investment in RAF Lossiemouth that is bringing jobs and investment to the region and enabling some of the growth deal projects. The Early Years STEM project thus plays a pivotal role in bridging the gap between industry and STEM skills in the Moray area. To fully benefit from the employment opportunities created by the Moray Growth Deals investment, as well as other economic activities in the area, a robust pipeline of talented young individuals with aptitude in STEM fields is vital. Page 40
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Page 29 of 142 What else needs to be done? Architectural concepts have been developed for the first STEM centre at Elgin Library, delivered as part of Phase 1 activity. These proposals set out key functional area moves, and renovation plans for the building, necessary to create a dedicated space within the building for STEM. With approval of the FBC, planning consent and building warrants will need to be obtained and a contractor appointed to undertake renovation works as per the proposals. Site acquisition, including partnership agreements and leasing arrangements will need to be finalised with the Leanchoil Trust and Wild Things. A feasibility study assessing the viability of Milbuies as a preferred location for the Environmental Centre will be commissioned following FBC approval. Consultation and change of land use is key focus areas for this facility and will need to be considered throughout development. Legal support relating to subsidy compliance for phase 2 activity will be sought as planning develops. Subsidy compliance is not applicable to phase 1 activity as all funding packages are associated with Moray Council assets and resources. Other key work items include: • Development of a marketing and branding strategy • Staff recruitment / Contract for Services • Vehicle procurement and fit-out. • Learning programme development • Construction and installation • Phase 2 site acquisition and planning • Approval by Scottish Government of elements not sufficiently covered in this Full Business Case, by annex submission Page 41
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Page 30 of 142 2. The Strategic Case Organisational overview The case has been developed by the Moray Council in partnership with the University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI), UHI Moray, Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Developing the Young Workforce (DYW), Education Scotland (ES), SSERC, NHS Grampian, Boeing, Gordon and MacPhail, and Aberdeen Science Centre (ASC). Representatives from each organisation, in collaboration with other identified stakeholders, and in consultation with key user groups, have contributed to the scope and focus of this evolving business case. The strategic context The strategic drivers for this investment and associated strategies, programmes and plans are contained in the vision for the Moray Growth Deal23. “By the year 2030 Moray is a destination of choice, the area being known and recognised as an outward facing and ambitious community with a thriving and well-connected commercial base and an environment in which quality of life is valued and supported.” The vision for the Moray Growth Deal is built on four pillars: Connections; Business Support, Skills & Employability; Moray the Place/Brand; and Moray’s Priority Business Sectors. Early Years STEM will deliver against the Business support, Skills & Employability category, working collaboratively with project stakeholders, including UHI Moray, MICM and DHI, in the development of skills and learning pathways, and creating inspirational learning opportunities for families and young people that will make Moray an attractive place to live and work. Business Strategy and Aims The project aligns specifically with the Scottish Governments STEM Strategy for Education and Training that has four key aims. 24 • To build the capacity of the education and training system to deliver excellent STEM learning so that employers have access to the workforce they need. • To close equity gaps in participation and attainment in STEM so that everyone can fulfil their potential and contribute to Scotland’s economic prosperity. • To inspire children, young people, and adults to study STEM and to continue their studies to obtain more specialist skills. 23 Moray Growth Deal Full Deal Document, 2021 https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/rural-affairs-islands-and-natural-environment- committee/moray-growth-deal-full-deal-document.pdf 24 STEM Strategy for Education and Training: third annual report, Scottish Government 2021 Page 42
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Page 31 of 142 • To connect the STEM education and training offer with labour market need – both now and in the future – to support improved productivity and inclusive economic growth. The Scottish Governments National Improvement Framework and Improvement Plan,25 sets out key principles and priorities for improvement that the project will deliver against, whilst also taking cognisance of ongoing national reform in the education sector, including the Hayward review and the National Discussion on Education.26 The project supports the Scottish Governments Framework for Recovery and Accelerating Progress,27 which aims to support schools, local authorities, and others across the education system to support educational recovery and increase progress in improving outcomes for children and young people impacted by poverty. The framework is developed in line with the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC).28 The Scottish Governments Learning for Sustainability: action plan 2023 to 2030 29makes learning for sustainability a key driver in the future of Scottish Education and is aligned with the projects KPIs in relation to outdoor learning. The project also helps to deliver against the policy programmes of Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation30, namely • To ensure that people have the skills they need at every stage of life to have rewarding careers and meet the demands of an ever-changing economy and society, and that employers invest in the skills employees they need to grow their businesses. The National Planning Framework 4,31 has a clear vision for Scotland’s spatial principles, which also provide drivers for this investment: • Just transition. We will empower people to shape their places and ensure the transition to net zero is fair and inclusive. • Conserving and recycling assets. We will make productive use of existing buildings, places, infrastructure, and services, locking in carbon, minimising waste, and building a circular economy. 25 National Improvement Framework and improvement plan, 2024, The Scottish Government https://www.gov.scot/publications/education-national-improvement-framework-improvement-plan- 2024/ 26 All Learners in Scotland Matter – national discussion on education: final report, 2023 https://www.gov.scot/publications/learners-scotland-matter-national-discussion-summary-report/ 27 27 Framework for Recovery and Accelerating Progress, 2023, Scottish Government. Scottish Attainment Challenge: framework for recovery and accelerating progress - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) 28 A Summary United Nations Convention on the Rights of a Child, Unicef, 2022 https://www.unicef.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/UNCRC_summary-1_1.pdf 29 Learning for sustainability: action plan 2023 to 2030, Scottish Government, 2023 https://www.gov.scot/publications/target-2030-movement-people-planet-prosperity/ 30 Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation, 2022, Scottish Government https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-national-strategy-economic-transformation/pages/2/ 31 National Planning Framework 4, Scottish Government, 2023 https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-national-strategy-economic-transformation/pages/2/ Page 43
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Page 32 of 142 • Local living. We will support local liveability and improve community health and wellbeing by ensuring people can easily access services, greenspace, learning, work, and leisure locally. • Compact urban growth. We will limit urban expansion so we can optimise the use of land to provide services and resources, including carbon storage, flood risk management, blue and green infrastructure, and biodiversity. • Rebalanced development. We will target development to create opportunities for communities and investment in areas of past decline and manage development sustainably in areas of high demand. • Rural revitalisation. We will encourage sustainable development in rural areas, recognising the need to grow and support urban and rural communities together. The project also supports the Scottish Governments Just Transition 32Fund outcomes: • Citizens, communities, and place: skills development, job creation and investment in community-based infrastructure will strengthen local economies. • Jobs, skills, and education: initiatives will equip people with the skills and knowledge needed to access highly technical and green careers. • Fair distribution of costs and benefits: industry-sponsored community projects will share the benefits of STEM activities with local communities. • Business and Economy: creating a skilled, capable workforce in turn supports a strong, and productive economy, creating further wealth and employment. • Adaptation and resilience: providing flexible training options help ensure the workforce and economy are adaptable and responsive. • Decarbonisation and efficiencies: suitable adaptation of the skill system will contribute low-carbon investment and infrastructure, avoiding carbon 'lock-in.' The project supports the Future Skills Action Plan33 vision that: Scotland’s highly skilled workforce ensures we are an ambitious, productive, and competitive nation. At the local level the project aligns with the ambition of the Moray Economic Strategy34 outcomes of increased qualification levels, business growth and skills alignment. The Local Outcome Improvement Plan (LOIP) for Moray 35aims to increase skills and pay levels in the area to lead to higher skilled employment, with KPIs measuring qualification levels. 32 Just Transition – A fairer, greener Scotland: Scottish Government Response, 2021, Scottish Government https://www.gov.scot/publications/transition-fairer-greener-scotland/ 33 Future Skills: action plan, 2021, Scottish Government https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-future-skills-action-plan/ 34 Moray Economic Strategy 2022, Towards Future Prosperity and Inclusive Growth http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file147200.pdf 35 Local Outcome Improvement Plan v2, Moray Community Planning Partnership http://www.yourmoray.org.uk/downloads/file118306.pdf Page 44
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Page 33 of 142 The Moray Council Corporate Plan 36 looks to create a step change in the regional economy to enable inclusive economic growth, which this project will contribute to through allowing young people to take up opportunities and participate fully in the labour market. The project aligns with the vision of the Elgin City Centre Masterplan 37 and all Town Centre Improvement Plans 38 to promote town centres and support their vitality and viability. The project will deliver against the priorities set out in the Moray Education National Improvement Framework Plan 39 specifically in relation to raising achievement in numeracy and around family learning. These plans have developed taking cognisance of Local and National Education Strategies and priorities including: • Getting it right for every child (GIRFEC) • Digital Learning and Teaching Strategy for Scotland • Developing the Young Workforce (DYW) • National Improvement Framework (NIF) • Corporate Parenting Strategy and Pillars • Raising Attainment Strategy and Toolkit • Learning and Teaching Strategy • Curriculum Strategy and toolkit • Moray Improvement Groups The project directly supports Realising the Ambition 40and Early Years Play Strategy with activities and experiences designed in relation to child centred pedagogical approaches. The project also delivers against the Moray Council Parental Involvement and Engagement Plan (PIE) 41 particularly around STEM family learning. Moray Children’s Services Plan 42 lists key priority areas that this project will provide contribution: • Overcoming challenges experienced by children with a disability or neurodiversity. • Tackling child poverty 36 Corporate Plan 2024, Moray Council http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file119976.pdf 37 Elgin City Centre Masterplan, 2021, Moray Council http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file119976.pdf 38 Town Centre Improvement Plan, Moray Council http://www.moray.gov.uk/moray_standard/page_139997.html 39 Moray Education National Improvement Framework Plan 2021-2022, Moray Council Education http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file138626.pdf 40 Realising the ambition: Being Me, Education Scotland, 2020 https://education.gov.scot/media/3bjpr3wa/realisingtheambition.pdf 41 Our Moray Standard – Supporting All Learners 2022-2028 Strategy, Moray Council Education http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file149016.pdf 42 Moray Children’s Services Plan 2023-36, Moray Community Planning Partnership http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file150784.pdf Page 45
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Page 34 of 142 • Improving the mental and emotional wellbeing of children, young people and their families Keeping children and young people safe • Strengthening family support • Improving outcomes for our looked after and care experienced children and young people. The project also aligns with the aims of the Moray Council Climate Change Strategy 2020-2030 43 to: • Achieve a carbon neutral Council by 2030 with an on-going reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from the Council area, • Work to retain, protect, and enhance biodiversity across Moray. • Work pro-actively with the wider community to promote and facilitate local action on Climate Change Inclusive growth44, which is a key strategic focus of the Scottish Government and Moray’s Economic Strategy will be considered in all Early Years STEM project decisions. Investment objectives The investment objectives for Early Years STEM are based on findings supporting the strategic case. Investment Objective 1 – To increase the availability of STEM opportunities for younger people, through the creation of experiential STEM learning hubs delivering upwards of 9000 engagements per annum by 2032. Investment Objective 2 - To increase participation and attainment in STEM subjects at secondary level by 8%, thereby encouraging uptake at further and higher education and ultimately increasing the STEM skills level in Moray by 2042. Investment Objective 3 - To ensure there is equality of opportunity in STEM education across Moray, ensuring all students aged 3-8 are engaged with the curriculum at least once per annum no matter their location, and increasing female participation in STEM subjects at secondary level by 10% by 2042. Investment Objective 4 – To increase the skills level of early year’s practitioners and primary teachers in the delivery of STEM disciplines, with an increase of 32 STEM champions in settings by 2032. Investment Objective 5 – To strengthen science capital within communities through the provision of 10 public engagement events per annum, thereby encouraging parental engagement, inter-generational learning, and raising the awareness of STEM related careers by 2032. Investment Objective 6 – To develop new forms of delivery through multi- agency collaboration and inter-disciplinary working, engaging 400 students aged 3-12 in partner led programmes and events, and increasing the number of industry and community STEM Ambassadors in Moray by 50% by 2032. 43 Climate Change Strategy 2020-2030, Moray Council http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file136442.pdf 44 Inclusive Growth: what does it look like? Scottish Government 2022 https://www.gov.scot/publications/inclusive-growth-look/ Page 46
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Page 35 of 142 Existing Arrangements Skills Shortage and the Moray Economy The UK economy is changing. According to research from the World Economic Forum Assembly,45 labour market transformations are being driven by technological breakthroughs, coupled with the shift to green energy and the broader application of environmental, social and governance standards within organisations. The fastest growing roles are driven by technology, digitalization and sustainability with Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Specialists at the top of the list of fastest growing jobs, followed by Sustainability Specialists, Business Intelligent Analysts, and Information Security Analysts. Renewable Energy Engineers, and Solar Energy Installation and System Engineers are relatively fast-growing roles, as economies shift towards renewable energy. The fastest declining roles according to the World Economic Forum are in administrative and clerical roles as well as traditional security, factory, and commerce roles. These findings are consistent with labour market trends in Scotland’s Economy. Research conducted by Skills Development Scotland46 indicate job displacement caused by advances in technological development. Forecast employment change in Moray by industry from 2026-2033 shows significant contraction in the manufacturing sector, as new technologies and production methods will allow the sector to produce more, but with fewer workers. Across all sectors, there will be a shift in the types of roles and expectation of skills, as new ways of working and technologies are introduced to the workplace. Process, Plant and Machine Operatives are in the fast-declining roles and will be replaced by automation and machine learning specialists, both STEM based occupations. 45 World Economic Form Future of Jobs Report 2023 https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_2023.pdf 46 Regional Skills Assessment Moray Growth Deal 2023, Skills Development Scotland https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/media/4jakvfxz/rsa-growth-deal-report-moray.pdf Page 47
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Page 36 of 142 Figure 5 Employment by industry Moray Economy vs Scotland, 2023, Nomis web As indicated in the in Figure 5, 16% of employment in Moray comes from manufacturing, equating to some 6000 jobs47. A report by Oxford Economics48 stated that in the EU28, 2 million manufacturing jobs are at risk from automation by 2030. This would equate to 6.67% of jobs lost over a ten-year period. The Highlands and Islands can be viewed as particularly vulnerable due to its current relative lack of automation. While roles are likely to evolve rather than disappear, STEM related skills and higher qualification levels will be required to access these types of jobs. Additionally, the Moray Growth Deal MICM project will deliver significant investment in the manufacturing sector and create opportunities for skilled employment. It is therefore essential to embed STEM learning now, to create a robust pipeline of talented young individuals with aptitude in STEM fields. As indicated the regional skills assessment for Moray, there is forecast future long- term demand in occupations with increasing reliance on STEM based skills. 47 Nomis official census and labour market statistics https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/1946157424/report.aspx 48 https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/HowRobotsChangetheWorld.pdf 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20% Industrial Make up of the Moray Economy v Scotland 2022 Businesses (Moray) Businesses (Scotland) Page 48
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Page 37 of 142 Figure 6 Forecast total requirements by occupation in Moray (2026-2033) Skills Development Scotland Employers are continuing to report skills shortages in the labour market. According to the Open University Business Barometer49, in 2020 there was estimated to be a skills shortage in nearly 62% of business in Scotland. The Scottish Employer Skills Survey (ESS) provides information on the skills challenges faced by employers in Scotland and is conducted on a regional level50. While no specific data is available for Moray, data gathered for the Highlands and Islands region indicate that 16% of vacancies were due to skills shortage, and 15% of employers reporting skills gaps within their organisations. Employers reported complex analytical skills, digital, and operational skills as the predominant development areas. Moray needs to improve its skills level if it wishes to be a competitive and attractive region that attracts inward investment and talent. In common with other regions in the Highlands and Islands, Moray has a youth depopulation issue. To reverse this, high- quality jobs must be available. The Moray economy has lower wage levels than in Scotland, with full time workers in Moray earning 10% less than their Scottish peers per hour on average. The gap widens further when all full time and part time jobs are included, the average annual wage in Moray £26,750 compared to £29,842 in Scotland.51 The gender pay gap 49 Open University Business Barometer 2021 https://www5.open.ac.uk/business/barometer-2023 50 Scottish Employer Skills Survey 2020 https://www.gov.scot/news/scottish-employer-skills-survey-2020/ 51 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2023 ONS https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/1946157424/report.aspx Page 49
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Page 38 of 142 remains a serious issue, the Moray Economic Strategy 2022 reporting 16% in Moray compared to the Scottish average of 13%.3 Moray also has a lower proportion of people employed in highly skilled occupations compared to the national level, with 35% in Moray at SOC 1-3 compared with 44% in Scotland, and a higher concentration of employment in sectors with relatively low wages. More than 55% of Moray’s jobs were in manufacturing, retail, hospitality, public administration, social care, and health, compared to the national figure of 45%. 65% of Morays residents aged 16-64 had a qualification at Higher level or above compared to 68% nationally, and the share of residents with a degree or same level professional qualification was 24% compared to 31% for Scotland.26 As indicated in the Regional Skills Assessment conducted by Skills Development Scotland in 2023, jobs of the future are going to require higher-level qualifications, with 43% of the Moray regions greatest requirement at SCQF levels 7-10. 52 Employment in STEM is highly segregated based on gender and encouraging more people to enter STEM related careers depends on changing the perceptions of appropriate career choices for men and women. Stereotypes about what is a ‘man’s job’ and what is a ‘woman’s job’ are affecting the chosen career paths and these stereotypes are often established at a very young age. The 2013 ASPIRES report by Kings College London revealed that girls are less likely to aspire to a science career, even though a higher percentage of girls than boys rate science as their favourite subject. The report also indicates that if a child does not express interest in STEM by age 10 are unlikely to do so later in life. 53 Research has identified that children as young as six report gendered differences in relations to levels of interest, confidence, and self-efficacy regarding STEM learning, and children of that age already associate reading with girls and mathematics with boys54. Stereotypes about cultural and social fit with STEM subjects, as well as the ability to undertake them, influence girls’ orientation to STEM in early childhood that persists into the middle years. Research also suggests that girls are socialised away from science at very early ages through parental guidance and micro-pedagogical practices in schools, for example with parents of young children much more likely to explain science topics to boys than girls. Raising Achievement and Improving Outcomes The Scottish Governments National Improvement Framework (NIF) and improvement plan 55 sets out the vision and priorities for Scottish education that have been agreed 52 Regional Skills Assessment Moray Growth Deal 2023, Skills Development Scotland https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/media/4jakvfxz/rsa-growth-deal-report-moray.pdf 53 ASPIRES Young People’s science and career aspirations, age 10-14, Kings College London 2013 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/64130521/ASPIRES_Report_2013.pdf 54 STEM in ECE: Key Findings from Research in the Field, 2019, University of Sheffield 55 National Improvement Framework and improvement plan, 2024, The Scottish Government https://www.gov.scot/publications/education-national-improvement-framework-improvement-plan- 2024/ Page 50
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Page 39 of 142 across the system, and the national improvement activity that needs to be undertaken to help deliver those key priorities. The Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills notes that nationally, being out of school and early years settings during the pandemic has had a profound impact on our children and young people, where there are many societal and socio-economic factors that are out with the control of schools and Early Learning and Childcare settings, but which have a significant impact on learning and achievement. The Scottish Government and local authorities remain committed to working together in realising the ambition of achieving equity and excellence for all Scotland’s children and young people. The International Council of Education Advisors (ICEA) view the national discussion and Hayward review of assessment as providing the opportunity for fresh and innovative ideas for improvement. Following key national review of the National Improvement Framework (NIF) 2023 and in line with findings of wider national reviews included in Professor Ken Muir’s Report 56, and the National Discussion on Education57, focus is now on achievement rather than attainment, where this was seen to be more in line with the four capacities of Curriculum for Excellence where we look to develop successful learners, confident individuals and effective contributors. The key drivers for improvement are considered within the NIF as: • Schools and Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) Leadership • Teacher and practitioner professionalism • Parent/carer engagement and family learning • Curriculum and assessment • School and ELC improvement • Performance Information In Moray, Strategic Education Meetings focus in on these drivers, and the current Education Strategic Plan focuses on the following core improvement areas as detailed in the Moray Education: National Improvement Framework Plan (NIF) 202458: • Curriculum • Reviewing Additional Support Needs • Learning, Teaching, and Assessment • Strengthening leadership and empowerment Significant efforts have been made across Moray Education in recent years to build and maintain improvement in attainment at Broad General Education Level. Among these actions is the development of Moray Improvement Groups, a collaborative effort across agencies to support revised educational strategies. Central officers lead on the development of core progressions and learning pathways across curriculum areas, 56 Putting learners at the centre: towards a future vision for Scottish Education, 2022, Professor Ken Muir https://www.gov.scot/publications/putting-learners-centre-towards-future-vision-scottish-education/ 57 All Learners in Scotland Matter – national discussion on education: final report, 2023 https://www.gov.scot/publications/learners-scotland-matter-national-discussion-summary-report/ 58 Moray Education: National Improvement Framework Plan, 2023-2024, Moray Council. Performance and Statistics - Moray Council Page 51
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Page 40 of 142 including STEM. In line with the Scottish Governments Framework for Recovery and Accelerating Progress59, Core Stretch Aims have been set out in relation to achievement and attainment. The authority has seen significant improvement in attainment levels in recent years, as Education has implemented a range of key strategic drivers, priorities and improvements as outlined in the Moray Education National Improvement Framework Plan 2023-2024. However, further work is required to raise and maintain attainment levels in Moray in line with or above the national average. Data obtained from Moray Councils Public Performance Report60 and shown in Figure 7, highlights that in 2023, 75% of Moray children across primary 1, 4 and 7 achieved the expected levels in numeracy, while the national average is 80%. Also in 2023, 87% of Moray children at third level and 58% at fourth level achieved the expected levels in numeracy, whereas the national average is 90% and 63% respectively. Figure 7 Moray Achievement of a Level - All Levels, Public Performance Report for Primary and Secondary Schools, 2023 Numeracy is a basic enabler to achieving qualifications in STEM and if children are behind in this by the time they reach secondary school, then this makes attainment in line or above the Scottish average ever more challenging. While there has been significant improvement in achievement levels in numeracy from 2019 to 2023 (the gap closing from 14% to 5%), further work is required to ensure Moray children perform at the same level as those nationally. Performance data highlights a consistently lower rate of attainment at SCQF level 6 in Moray than in Scotland from 2021 to 2023, as highlighted in Figure 8. In 2023, 45% of Moray students achieved 3 or more passes compared to the national average of 52%, and 29% achieved 5 or more passes compared to the national average of 39%.60 59 Framework for Recovery and Accelerating Progress, 2023, Scottish Government. Scottish Attainment Challenge: framework for recovery and accelerating progress - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) 60 Public Performance Report for Primary and Secondary Schools, School Session 2022/23, Moray Council Education http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file154769.pdf 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% P1, P4, P7 Combined Third Level Fourth Level Moray Moray Education Achievement of a Level 2023 - Numeracy Moray Scotland Page 52
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Page 41 of 142 Figure 8 Percentage of S4 attaining, Public Performance Repot for Primary and Secondary Schools 2023 According to 2023 Scottish Qualification Authority (SQA) attainment statistics, and shown in Figure 9, Moray’s students are less likely to attain in STEM related subjects than in Scotland, with the percentage of Moray students attaining grades A-C at SCQF level 5 (National 5) significantly lower than those in Scotland. 61 Statistics also show a downward trend in STEM attainment in Moray from 2021 -2023, as shown in Figure 10. Figure 9 STEM Subject Attainment in Moray versus Scotland - National 5 – Scottish Qualification Authoity Statistics 2023 61 Attainment Statistics, Scottish Qualification Authority, 2023 https://www.sqa.org.uk/sqa/105123.html 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Moray Scotland Moray Scotland 3 or more passes at SCQF 6 3 or more passes at SCQF 6 5 or more passes at SCQF 6 5 or more passes at SCQF 6 Moray Attainment versus Scotland SCQF 6 (Higher) 2021 2022 2023 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Application of Mathematics Biology Chemistry Computing Science Engineering Science Graphic Communication Mathematics Physics STEM Subject Attainment Moray versus Scotland 2023 - SCQF 5 (National 5) Moray Scotland Page 53
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Page 42 of 142 Figure 10 Moray STEM Subject Attainment 2021-2023 - SCQF 5 - Scottish Qualifications Authority Statistics 2023 The impact of lower attainment levels is reflected in the number of children going into positive leaver destinations post-secondary education. While the number of Moray school leavers entering employment and further education remains above national average, the number of Moray School leavers entering Higher Education falls consistently below that of national peers. In 2023, 29% of Moray school leavers entered employment compared to 27% nationally, whereas 33% of Moray school leavers entered higher education compared to 40% nationally. As indicated in the Regional Skills Assessment conducted by Skills Development Scotland in 2022, jobs of the future are going to require higher-level qualifications, with 44% of the Moray regions greatest requirement at SCQF levels 7-10. 62 Figure 11 Moray positive leaver destinations 2023, Moray Education Statistics 62 Public Performance Report for Primary and Secondary Schools, School Session 2022/23, Moray Council Education http://www.moray.gov.uk/downloads/file154769.pdf 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Application of Mathematics Biology Chemistry Computing Science Engineering Science Graphic Communication Mathematics Physics Moray STEM Subject Attainment 2021-2023 - SCQF 5 (National 5) 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100% Higher Education Further Education Employment Voluntary Work Training Personal Skills Development Positive Destination Moray Positive Leaver Destinations 2023 Moray National Page 54
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Page 43 of 142 Creating more appeal for STEM related jobs is important to facilitate the evolution of skills required by the future jobs market, and to ensure Moray is resilient in the future. The Moray Growth Deal will see significant investment in the local economy, creating future high-level jobs in key sectors of Digital Health, Aerospace, Renewable Energy and Manufacturing. Raising achievement and improving outcomes is important to ensure our young people have the necessary skills to access these jobs. As evident from the trends in attainment levels from broad education through to senior phase and into leaver destinations, for positive attitudes to be embedded in terms of STEM, this culture change needs to begin at a pre-school age and then be sustained through the young person’s progression through education. Business Needs Current and Future Early Intervention There has been significant research undertaken in recent years into what factors influence a child’s engagement with STEM. The 2013 ASPIRES report by Kings College London is a significant and long-term study into young people’s science and careers aspirations from age 10 to 1463. The report found that young people’s attitudes towards STEM are consistent from age 10 to 14, and that those who do not express interest by age 10 are unlikely to develop STEM aspirations by the age of 14. The report acknowledged that STEM engagements must begin before secondary level and highlighted the importance of primary STEM education. Indeed, there is growing scientific consensus about the importance of implementing STEM education at a much younger age. A 2017 report by the Joan Ganz Cooney Centre demonstrates the importance of grounding STEM Education in early childhood64. Young children possess a natural curiosity of the world around them and are already starting to grasp the fundamental concepts about science and the natural world through play and exploration. Implementing STEM education at an early stage encourages the development of key skills relating to problem solving, trial and error and critical thinking skills, and can lay the groundwork for a deeper understanding of difficult concepts at a later stage. A growing number of studies show a correlation between early experiences with STEM subjects and later success in those subjects or in school generally. The 2015 report titled Transforming the Workforce for Children Birth through Age 865 warned that without such education starting and continuing throughout the early years, many 63 ASPIRES Young People’s science and career aspirations, age 10-14, Kings College London 2013 https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/64130521/ASPIRES_Report_2013.pdf 64 STEM Starts Early: Grounding Science, Technology, Engineering and Math Education in Early Childhood, Joan Ganz Cooney Centre, 2017 https://joanganzcooneycenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jgcc_stemstartsearly_final.pdf 65 Transforming the Workforce for Children Birth Through Age 8: A Unifying Foundation 2015, Institute of Medicine and National Research Council https://www.fcd-us.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/IOMNRCFullReport2015.pdf Page 55
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Page 44 of 142 children will be on a trajectory in which they will find great difficulty catching up to their peers. The report also states that children who engage in scientific activities from an early age develop positive attitudes towards science, which also correlate with later science achievement, and they are more likely to pursue STEM expertise and careers later. Encouraging an interest in STEM in early education, and sustaining that interesting throughout a learner’s school journey, such that they have the necessary skills and aspirations to pursue a career in STEM related fields, is key to developing a skilled workforce that meets the future needs of employers. While there is no single approach that can be taken to adequately prepare today’s children to enter tomorrow’s workplace, the foundation work is already being put in place in Moray that this Early Years STEM initiative can further build on. In line with the Early Intervention approach taken across wider services in Moray, STEM learning activities will be initiated at the Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) stage. This acknowledges that to increase attainment in STEM we will need engage with children in the early years (ages 3 – 8) setting to generate interest in the STEM curriculum once the children are older. To do this requires a multi-pronged approach beginning before children start school and sustained through primary and secondary school education levels. The primary target audiences are therefore: • Early Learning & Childcare Settings • Childminders and Home Educators • Primary School Groups (P1-P4) The secondary target audiences are: • Primary Schools Groups (P5-7) • Secondary School Groups • Families, Employers, and the Wider community While work in Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) is further developing, a good start has been made with the implementation of Talking Tubs to stimulate discussion about sector specific vocations, including those STEM related. This links to early work with practitioners around gender imbalance training that ties in with the child centred pedagogy approach. Early Years STEM, through investment in training, resources, and creation of specialist learning environments, will further enhance the awareness of STEM related careers in early year’s settings. Outdoor learning continues to be a focus for ELC settings in Moray, with key initiatives developed in recent years promoting STEM and learning for sustainability through child centred pedagogical approaches. The Outdoor Play and Learning Toolkit, developed in response to COVID-19 restrictions, provides ELC settings with the tools and training to venture into the outdoors with confidence. The ELC Moray STEM in the Outdoor Project, delivered with the support of grand funding from Education Scotland, saw Enhanced Professional Learning Opportunities for ELC Practitioners in Moray, Page 56
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Page 45 of 142 with 14 STEM Champions from nursery settings participating in formal training sessions with subject matter experts, with the aim of disseminating and embedding the learning within each cluster. With increasing focus on climate change and the shift to green energy, the launch of the LfS action plan66, and the Moray Councils commitment to achieving net zero by 2030, creating more opportunities for outdoor learning, environmental education and learning for sustainability has never been more important. Early Years STEM will address this challenge through the creation of a specialist outdoor learning facility and outreach programme, with a focus on environmental education and learning for sustainability. Overcoming Barriers to Engagement While there is increasing focus on STEM education for young people, both at a national and local level, there persists significant barriers that prevent participation in STEM activities. The 2022 report by Ekosgen prepared on behalf of Education Scotland presents key findings relating to the Structural Barriers to STEM Engagement.67 Barriers identified that are within control of the local authority or Regional Improvement Collaborative include: • Schools’ budgets and inconsistency of available resources across regions, local authorities, and schools. • Cross local authority knowledge exchange is still largely dependent on enthusiasm of individual STEM practitioners and leads. • There needs to be increased focus on STEM and gender awareness practice in School Improvement Plans where currently there is a mixed commitment. • Science transition activity from primary to secondary school needs to improve with lack of resource and limited teacher time cited as key barriers. • Building capacity, confidence and skills of practitioners is an ongoing need with CLPL and industry exposure highlighted as key areas. • Lack of STEM resources is constraining STEM teaching as well as the availability of flexible spaces within schools for Inter Disciplinary Learning (IDL). • Flexibility with planning and timetabling and a silo approach to curriculum and lesson development is limiting the impact that IDL can have. • STEM Ambassadors and Young STEM Leaders are a valuable tool in promoting STEM however are not yet having the reach and impact intended. • There needs to be stronger links between schools and partner organisations, in particular, Developing the Young Workforce (DYW), SSERC, colleges, Skills 66 Learning for sustainability: action plan 2023 to 2030, Scottish Government, 2023 https://www.gov.scot/publications/target-2030-movement-people-planet-prosperity/ 67 The Structural Barriers to STEM Engagement Final Report for Education Scotland, 2022, Ekosgen https://education.gov.scot/media/axpjte2j/ekosgen-structural-barriers-to-stem-engagement-year-3- report-exec-summary-nov-2022.pdf Page 57
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Page 46 of 142 Development Scotland (SDS) advisers, Energy Skills Partnership (ESP), regional STEM partnerships etc. Critical to the success of this project and indeed education reform, is putting the voice of the learner at the centre. Included in the National Discussion on Education final report 68 are key themes concerning learning, obtained by surveying learners and the influential systems in their life. Concerning learning, key themes include: • Cultivating joy and the love of learning where learning takes place in a range of settings and approaches, including the importance of play and outdoor learning for all ages. • The need for a shift from progression based on age and stage of schooling, to flexible pathways and supported transitions that meet the developmental needs and interests of children throughout their early years and school experience. • Digital learning must be at the core of Scottish education so that all learners in Scotland have choice, opportunity, and security in their lives, both now and in the future • “I prefer to learn by doing practical things. Using real objects makes things stick in my memory longer. I love Science because it’s very practical and fun”- learner. These findings are consistent with attitudes in Moray. There has been significant engagement with parents, pupils and education staff, as the project has sought to identify challenges, opportunities, and to obtain feedback on solutions proposed. Engagement methods include: one on one and group consultations; facilitated focus groups and workshopping exercises; attendance at ASG and head teacher meetings; school and ELC classroom visits; public events and STEM taster sessions: and feedback obtained from STEM surveys and feedback forms. Engagement survey examples are included in Appendix 12. To date, • 140 education staff have been consulted throughout project development, including ELC practitioners, childminders, and primary and secondary teachers. • 253 children have been engaged, including responses from pupil surveys, classroom visits and STEM workshops. • 109 parents have been consulted through public engagement events, STEM taster sessions and feedback from targeted surveys. Across all mediums, education staff generally agreed the following: • While STEM learning is a priority in most settings, issues surrounding staff time, budgeting constraints, and competing priorities limit the extent of STEM engagement. 68 All Learners in Scotland Matter: The National Discussion on Education, 2023, Scottish Government https://www.gov.scot/publications/learners-scotland-matter-national-discussion-summary-report/ Page 58
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Page 47 of 142 • Knowledge and confidence in delivering STEM subjects as well as the awareness of CLPL opportunities, and the ability to access them, is a key issue. • Embedding STEM within the curriculum will have the greatest impact with support for a science progression. • Cost of transportation prevents settings accessing STEM learning opportunities outside of the school environment. • Lack of STEM resources and equipment is a barrier. Schools participating in SSERC CLPL training have greater access to resources however, these are not sufficient to support delivery to a full class. • Practitioners would like opportunities to experience STEM in relation to the world of work and engage with local industry. While Developing the Young Workforce (DYW) and Skills Development Scotland (SDS) are actively engaging with students at secondary level, primary and nursery settings are not seeing the same level of engagement. Parents have indicated a growing desire to engage with STEM learning, however, cite lack of opportunity as a barrier to participation. The common answer when asked how families currently access STEM learning in Moray, was through events delivered by the CLD teams, as well as those offered in museums throughout the region. Parental engagement is a subject of continued focus within Moray Council Education and while there is increasing opportunity for parents to engage with STEM in school settings, further work needs to be taken to embed this approach. Common answers when asked what type of STEM opportunities audiences would like to see include outdoor learning, activities with a focus on renewable energy and a “science centre type experience.” Science Centres have been long been known as the focal point within a community for STEM engagements, providing opportunities for schools and families alike to participate in STEM activities and delivering outreach programmes within localities. Aberdeen Science Centre is the closest of these institutions to Moray, however with a 2-hour commuting time from the centre of Moray; schools find it incredibly challenging to engage with this kind of high quality, inspirational experience. Technological advances and the impact of COVID-19 has increased the availability of digital learning opportunities, however, with a large proportion of Morays learning estate in remote locations, access to the necessary digital infrastructure limits participation. The final threat to the skills make-up of the region is therefore rural in nature. Children in Moray need to have access to the same type of high-quality learning experiences as their peers out with Moray. There is a degree of inequality of opportunity due to the rural nature of the region. Many of the manufacturing businesses in Moray are in rural regions and are the most significant employer in that locality. While these employers give considerable career opportunities to their local communities, children need greater awareness of the Page 59
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Page 48 of 142 variety of opportunity across Moray as a whole, to prevent limited opportunity in their local environment affecting attitudes towards future potential careers. In Speyside for example, school settings have been particularly successful in connecting with employers in their local area, however the children surveyed expressed a desire to see jobs in other parts of Moray. Collaborative Approach and Partnership Working Addressing these challenges is a complex endeavour and responsibility cannot lie on the Moray Council and Education Sector alone. Raising the aspirations of young people in STEM and giving them the skills and confidence to pursue STEM subjects throughout education and into employment, relies on a coordinated, cohesive effort within the whole STEM ecosystem. In line with Moray’s STEM Strategy for Education, significant efforts have been made in recent years to raise the profile, knowledge and understanding of STEM subjects, both in education settings and through delivery of partner and employer initiatives throughout the region. The Moray Skills Pathway, developed in partnership between the Moray Council, Developing the Young Workforce (DYW), Moray College UHI and Skills Development Scotland (SDS), and working with employers, set out to develop a clear route for children and young people from early years up to S6 to engage with the world of work and develop enterprise skills. While this is no longer an active strategy within Morays Education Sector, the core principles and innovative approach to curriculum continues with the development of the Moray Improvement Framework Plan and Moray Improvement Groups. Early Years STEM will work collaboratively with key delivery partners within Morays Education Sector, as well as local employers and other Moray Growth Deal Projects such as MICM and DHI, to build capacity within the education system and deliver learning opportunities that are dynamic and flexible in response to the evolving priorities within the sector. Capacity and financial pressures continue to exist within the Moray Council and among partners, however the commitment to deliver high quality learning opportunities to our young people has not changed. While the changing economic climate has led to partners scaling back large in person events, local outreach initiatives, national STEM challenges and meet the expert programmes continue to be offered to young people in Moray, particularly in the late primary to early secondary age bracket. Early Years STEM seeks to collaborate with partners to deliver a coordinated and cohesive offer that maps STEM activity in the region, addresses the gaps in STEM provision and creates new and exciting opportunities for children and families to engage with STEM learning. This work has already been initiated through the implementation of a STEM Moray Steering Group, focused on development of an updated STEM Strategy for Moray and development of a STEM learning Ecosystem. Page 60
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Page 49 of 142 Key members of the group include Moray Council, UHI Moray, Royal Air Force (RAF), Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Science Skills Academy, SSERC, Developing the Young Workforce (DYW), Techfest and STEMOVATORS. Increasing Science Capital across the STEM Ecosystem The ecological systems model, first suggested by Urie Bronfenbrenner in 1977 and depicted in figure 12, suggests that children develop within nested systems of influence, with the child at the centre.69 Figure 12 Ecological Systems Model The microsystem refers to a child’s immediate environment and relationships, and include the home, the school classroom, child-care of after-school programme, museums, science centres and any other local community setting, and of course, the people and experiences within those settings. The mesosystem acknowledges the relationships between the microsystem environments, for example the ways that the child’s schooling affects his or her home life and vice versa. The exosystem includes the societal structures and institutions that do not directly contain the child but can directly or indirectly affect him or her—for example, government policies and the research that spurs those policies. Finally, the outermost layer, the macrosystem, consists of the cultural frames, paradigms, values, and models that shape the environment within which the child learns. The Ecological systems approach as outlined in the 2017 Study by the Joan Ganz Cooney Centre70, acknowledges that integrating STEM learning into early childhood 69 STEM Starts Early: Grounding Science, Technology, Engineering and Math Education in Early Childhood, 2017, Joan Ganz Cooney Center. https://joanganzcooneycenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jgcc_stemstartsearly_final.pdf 70 STEM Starts Early: Grounding Science, Technology, Engineering and Math Education in Early Childhood, 2017, Joan Ganz Cooney Center. https://joanganzcooneycenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/jgcc_stemstartsearly_final.pdf Page 61
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Page 50 of 142 education requires urgent, well-coordinated, cross-sector work and made six key recommendations: 1. Support parents to be STEM guides, 2. Improve teacher professional learning. 3. Build a sustainable and aligned system of high-quality early learning from birth through 8. 4. Use communications science to build will and public understanding. 5. Expand the availability of STEM “charging stations”. 6. Improve how research is funded and conducted. Early Years STEM seeks to create a STEM learning ecosystem within the Moray region, through the creation of specialist learning environments and experiences (“charging stations”), access to training and resources (“professional learning”), and the creation of a STEM learning network involving Moray Council staff, key delivery partners, and volunteers from industry and the wider community. The recommendations are consistent with key findings included in the 2022 Structural Barriers to STEM Engagement Report conducted by Ekosgen on behalf of Education Scotland and Scottish Government71, which speaks to the complexity of the learner environment and the numerous influences facing the young person in their STEM learning journey. The report also highlights the importance of introducing STEM learning pathways and careers education from early years, through school, higher and further education and on to the world of work and acknowledges the need for multi-agency collaboration and inter-disciplinary working. Data drawn from interviewing students, parents and staff showed that learners want their learning experience rooted in the real world with a strong focus on job and work experience, and 59% of parents surveyed want more opportunity for their children to work with businesses throughout their learning. In line with the Moray’s STEM Strategy for Education, significant effort has been made in recent years to connect Moray’s education system with the world of work. Working in partnership with Developing the Young Workforce (DYW) and Skills Development Scotland (SDS), and utilising the SSERC STEM Ambassador Network, collaborative approaches have been undertaken to connect local employers with schools, and raise awareness of children, parents, and education staff to the wealth of career opportunities that exist in Moray’s economy. The Moray Education Self-evaluation 2021 report summarises the significant progress made to date and commitment to pursue collaborative opportunities within the Curriculum72. Early Years STEM will 71 The Structural Barriers to STEM Engagement Final Report for Education Scotland, 2022, Ekosgen https://education.gov.scot/media/axpjte2j/ekosgen-structural-barriers-to-stem-engagement-year-3- report-exec-summary-nov-2022.pdf 72 Moray Education Self Evaluation 2020-2021, Moray Council 2021 Page 62
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Page 51 of 142 work closely with SDS and DYW to extend the reach of these engagements to younger learners and their families. The concept of “Science Capital” has been gaining significant traction over the years and was highlighted in the 2013 ASPIRES report by Kings College London. The report found that the chances of a young person going on to study STEM are greatly influenced by the amount of “science capital” in the family. Science capital refers to the science-related qualifications, understanding, knowledge, interest, and social contacts at home. The report overwhelmingly found that children with a high amount of science capital in the home are much more likely to aspire to a STEM career. The report also found that science capital is unevenly spread across societal groups and those with higher levels of science capital tend to be middle class. Parental Engagement has been the subject of continued focus within Morays Education System in recent years, with increasing opportunities for parents to engage with the curriculum and schools in general. Parental influence, particularly in the early years, is paramount to nurturing a child’s aspirations in STEM and to fully embed STEM learning and change the way STEM is perceived in the region, there needs to be a more focused and coordinated effort for families to engage with STEM, in both formal and informal education settings. The concept of science capital extends beyond that of the home environment. The Enterprising Science partnership of BP, Kings College London and the Science Museum Group identified eight key dimensions of science capital73: 1. Scientific literacy – A young person’s knowledge and understanding about science and how science works. 2. Science-related attitudes values and dispositions – the extent to which a young person sees science as relevant to everyday life. 3. Knowledge about the transferability of science – understanding the broad applications of science skills and that these can lead to a wide range of jobs. 4. Science media consumption – the extent to which a young person watches science related television, books, magazines and engages with science related internet content. 5. Participation in out-of-school science learning contexts – how often a young person participates in informal science learning contexts such as science museums, science clubs, libraries etc. 6. Family science skills, knowledge, and qualifications - the extent to which a young person’s family have science-related skills, qualifications, jobs, and interests. 7. Knowing people in science related roles - the people a young person knows in their family, friends, peer, and community circles who work in science-related roles. 73 Science Capital Made Clear, Enterprising Science Partnership, 2015 Page 63
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Page 52 of 142 8. Talking about science in everyday life – how often a young person talks about science out of school with key people in their live Building science capital is a challenging and complex endeavour. It means recognising that improving science participation entails changes and challenges for the whole STEM ecosystem and that there is no silver bullet. A science capital approach means paying attention to the institutions, systems, and social relations within, and relies on collaboration and partnership working. Science capital recognises the need for STEM engagement beyond that of the school environment. Schools have traditionally been the place for children to develop disciplinary thinking, however, schools are not the only place in a community where education takes place; they exist within a community’s learning ecosystem. Schools, businesses, science museums, libraries, and the home are settings that make up a community’s learning ecosystem, and this subset of places is designed to support the development of STEM disciplinary ways of thinking. These extended education contexts are an important and necessary part of the STEM learning ecosystem as they provide opportunities to explore STEM content outside of formal school settings and removes the academic pressure and fear of failure that can contribute to STEM disengagement. They can also provide a space for educators and facilitators to explore innovative pedagogical practices and child centred learning opportunities, where traditional school settings may be less equipped to do so, due to competing priorities and pressures. In addition, non-formal learning institutions are known to be effective in engaging families with STEM activities, leading to strengthening of science capital in families. STEM has seen a resurgence in Moray in recent years as communities recognise the importance of STEM based learning across all ages and sectors. The Moray Councils Library and Learning Centre team have been particularly successful in engaging young people with STEM, through delivery of coding workshops, digital explorer’s programmes, and the provision of STEM loan kits. Similarly, the Moray Councils Adult & Family Learning Team have made significant efforts to engage families with STEM, through delivery of national programmes such as Multiply and even going into school and nursery settings to deliver family focused workshops. However, access to environments, resources and training limits the extent to which teams can engage with audiences. STEM learning opportunities extend beyond the local authority and education sector; as local museums, discovery centres and community hubs also deliver STEM related activities and experiences. While these activities highlight the regions commitment to learning and appetite for STEM Engagements, Moray needs a dedicated informal STEM learning environment that can bridge the gap between schools, employers, families, and the wider community. There is therefore a significant need in Moray to develop infrastructure aligned to the needs of the STEM ecosystem that can support delivery of STEM pathways from early Page 64
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Page 53 of 142 years through to BGE, and facilitate parental engagement, inter-generational learning, and community participation. Early Years STEM will invest in state-of-the-art facilities in community settings throughout Moray. These spaces will offer core learning equipment and digital infrastructure that will allow children, families, and the wider community of all ages to engage with STEM. The environments will include interactive exhibitions and experiences for self-led, child centred learning opportunities, thereby offering a “science centre type experience” that can be delivered through Moray Growth Deal funding and sustained within existing Moray Council resources. The facilities will also offer accessibility to community groups, STEM clubs and Moray Council CLD teams to deliver STEM learning to audiences, including early years. Employers, STEM Ambassadors and community volunteers will also be engaged to deliver STEM learning within these facilities, where access to infrastructure has previously limited these types of interactions. A dedicated team of STEM coordinators will be employed to manage and coordinate activity associated with the STEM Network. This draws on the success of the Raising Aspiration in Science pilot project (RAiSE) launched in Moray in 2016. The Wood Foundation, Scottish Government and Moray Council jointly funded this 23-month £160,000 project, with the primary expense being employing a Primary Science Development Officer. The focus of the programme was to increase competence and confidence in practitioners in the delivery of STEM curriculum. An external evaluation of the RAiSE programme was conducted by Glasgow University at a national level and found that of those children involved with RAiSE 87% had enjoyed more challenge and 77% had increased their STEM aspirations. 74 This is a high impact for a relatively small project over a short timeframe and demonstrates the significant impact specialist STEM staff can make. However, the RAISE programme also demonstrates the importance of being able to sustain this role over an extended period. Creating educational facilities that offers equitable access to education settings, families, employers and the wider community, the Early Years STEM project aims to create an ecosystem of STEM learning that encourages multi agency participation and changes the way STEM is perceived in the region. Potential scope and service requirements The options within these ranges are considered within the economic case. Business scope and key service requirements 74 Raising Aspirations in Science Education (RAiSE) Pilot Final Evaluation Report 2019, University of Glasgow https://www.thewoodfoundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/RAiSE-evaluation-report- finalised-.pdf Page 65
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Page 54 of 142 Minimum Intermediate Maximum Potential business scope One central provision serving all Associated School Groups (ASG)s in Moray. Development of a centrally located Moray STEM Centre. A flexible learning space with indoor and outdoor facilities, core and bespoke learning equipment and a programme of learning applicable to the target audience. A bespoke offering dependant on need and geography. Facilities developed in targeted locations across Moray. Flexible indoor and outdoor spaces with core and bespoke learning equipment and a programme of learning applicable to the target audience. A robust outreach offering including a mobile solution extending the offer into all ASGs in Moray. A provision in each Associated School Group (ASG) in Moray. Eight ASG STEM Hubs developed utilising existing council and partner space. Flexible learning spaces with core learning facilities and equipment and a programme of learning suitable to the needs of geography of each ASG. A mobile solution with bespoke equipment bringing the benefits of a science centre to Moray Key service requirements Identify centrally located premises, refurbish to a high standard, fit out with facilities, furniture, and bespoke learning equipment. Recruitment of a small team to deliver centrally from Moray Council. Identify suitable premises in targeted locations across Moray. Refurbish and fit out with facilities and bespoke learning equipment. Purchase of a vehicle and portable equipment for delivery of outreach and mobile elements. Recruitment of a small team to coordinate centrally from Moray Council and deliver outreach activity across all ASGs. Supported by a network of upskilled Identify suitable premises within each ASG in Moray, refurbish and fit out with facilities and bespoke learning equipment. Purchase of a large specialist vehicle and equipment for delivery of the mobile solution. Recruitment of a dedicated staffing provision working across each ASG with support from a network of upskilled staff, community volunteers and Page 66
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Page 55 of 142 Minimum Intermediate Maximum staff, community volunteers and public/ private partnerships. public/ private partnerships. Benefits criteria Satisfying the potential scope for this investment will deliver the following high-level strategic and operational benefits. These are as follows: Class Of Objective Main Benefits Benefits Criteria Stakeholders Affected Strategic (wider social and Business related) Business growth Attract / retain young people. Reduce gender pay gap. Rebalance demographic Increase number of businesses in the area Increase higher paid jobs. Increase alignment of workforce skills with business requirements Increase inward investment to Moray. Increase the rate of female employment. Increase the percentage of females in full-time posts. Increase working population of the area as percentage of total. Reduction in future unemployment Reduce Rural inequality. Town centre regeneration and increase in town centre activity Young People / Moray residents / Local businesses / Public Sector Page 67
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Page 56 of 142 Operational (organisational and management related) Business growth Attract / retain young people. Reduce gender pay gap. Rebalance demographic Increase skills/training opportunities. Increase the number of young people choosing to live/stay in Moray. Increase percentage of female school leavers going in to STEM jobs Increase in attainment in Curriculum for Excellence at primary and early secondary level. Increase in the number of STEM subjects chosen at national 5 and Higher. Increase in positive leaver destinations of young people. Increase in the aspirations of young people to access STEM careers. Increased in activities and events offered to families. Increase networking and connections between businesses, communities, and the education sector. Improvement of local services and facilities accessed by the public. Young People / Moray residents / Local businesses / Public Sector Page 68
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Page 57 of 142 Class Of Objective Main Benefits Benefits Criteria Stakeholders Affected Increase in community participation in the upskilling young people. Improved Health and Wellbeing of young people and the wider community Increase in young people, families and the wider community accessing inspirational learning environments. Increase in the awareness of Morays residents of the career opportunities in Morays local economy. Increase in climate awareness of young people and the wider community. Increased access to technical infrastructure to support learning pathways across all ages. Strategic risks The main business and service risks associated with the potential scope for this project are shown below: Page 69
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Page 58 of 142 Risk categories Mitigation Business Risks Delays at planning application stage Contractors failing to deliver according to budget or timescales. Competing Demands for Resources Inability to attract private sector sponsorship. Early engagement with Council Ongoing communications Appointment of appropriate design team Appropriate procurement planning Appropriate contract penalties to be in place. Early market engagement Appropriate procurement planning Early market engagement Ensure scope can be met within existing budgets. Service Risks Lack of employer, partner, and community engagement Failure to develop scope that meets objectives. Project fails to deliver core benefits. Failure to recruit the staff with the right mix of skills. Wild Things partner fails to raise the required funds necessary to support operational costs Consultation with Community Planning Partnership and cross sharing of resources for engagement Utilise partner connections. Early understanding of market needs Early understanding of needs Communications and engagement Project planning with key stakeholders Project board with key stakeholders Stakeholders have strong reputation. Project planning and risk management/operationalisation Ongoing communications and partnership-working Robust recruitment process Early engagement with external funders Consider alternate suppliers should organisation fail to meet service requirements Page 70
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Page 59 of 142 Risk categories Mitigation External Environmental Risks Delays in Moray Growth Deal Difficulties drawing MGD funding down. Miscommunications regarding MGD. Conflict with Partner Initiatives Difficulty acquiring and securing sites Communications with Governments Management of expectations Communications with Moray Council and Scottish Government finance teams Clear protocols to be developed at Full Deal stage. Coordinated MGD communications. Project communications strategy Clear communications Scope alternative locations, seek legal guidance at early project stages. Constraints The project is subject to the following constraints: • The project can be completed within the timescale required to allow the benefits to accrue. • Resources are available to enable the project to be delivered on time and to the right quality. Dependencies The project is subject to the following dependencies that will be carefully monitored and managed throughout the project life cycle: • The project is dependent on ongoing political support and the relationship between partners organisations. • Dependency on Wild Things partner to meet operational costs of outdoor centre through external funding sources. • Dependency on Leanchoil Trust to raise funds to enable delivery of Leanchoil Health and Wellbeing Centre. • Alignment with national / regional developments. • Industry and stakeholder engagement • The project has sufficient financial backing through implementation to ongoing delivery, including the release of funding dependent on development of a full business case. Page 71
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Page 60 of 142 3. The Economic Case Introduction At the start of the development of the Outline Business Case a project board was formed of key stakeholders to direct and guide the project. The key stakeholders included representatives from: • Moray Council • Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE) • Moray College UHI • The University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI) • Skills Development Scotland (SDS) • Developing the Young Workforce (DYW) • NHS Grampian • Boeing • Gordon and MacPhail Membership was expanded following OBC approval to include: • Aberdeen Science Centre (ASC) • Education Scotland • SSERC At the inaugural meeting of the board, members undertook a benefits mapping exercise to assist in developing the logic model for the project. The logic model developed from this activity was as follows: Inputs Activities Outputs Short Term Outcomes Long Term Outcomes Resources needed to deliver the project. Actions needed to deliver the project. Measurable direct results of the activities. Changes that occur to the beneficiaries and the medium-term benefits on the economy. The long-term effect upon the economy or society Capital investment: Staff resource to develop plans; Operational model; Expertise Permissions; Develop stakeholder community; Develop partnership arrangements. Network of inspirational learning environments accessible to families, ELCs, Schools and whole Increased confidence in young people; Increased confidence in adults; Stronger linkages Increased attainment at secondary, further and higher education in STEM subjects; Increase in Page 72
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Page 61 of 142 knowledge; Stakeholder Partnership development; Staff and volunteer time; Site feasibility and acquisition. Construction or renovation of buildings. Fit out with technology and equipment; Purchase of vehicle and STEM Materials; Recruitment and training of staff. Learning programme development and delivery; Upskilling of existing staff and development of learning network; Marketing. communities; Access to learning resources, materials, and experiences; Training opportunities for staff and volunteers; Increase in classroom- based STEM activity in early years curriculum; STEM events held in collaboration with partners; Young people engaging with sectors on site through visits; STEM learning opportunities continue after early years. between education and employment; Increase in teacher skills and up skilling of the wider community through CPD; Better pathways to STEM curriculum; Improvement in 4 areas of curriculum for excellence across all age groups; Increase in choosing STEM subjects at secondary school; More women choosing STEM subjects; Increased level of investment from STEM businesses in Moray; Reduction in rural inequality. positive leaver destinations of young people, Increase in STEM subject choices at school and Moray College UHI; Increase in high value jobs accessed by Morays residents; Less inequality of opportunity in education and employment; An increase in the skill level in Moray; Increase in the average wage level; Less future unemployment; Increase in start-ups; Reduction in outward migration of young people; Attract people to live and work in the area. Critical Success Factors A programme board meeting was held on 11th May 2017 to determine the CSFs for initial shortlist of projects. The attendees included relevant stakeholders from Moray Economic Partnership, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, University of the Highlands and Islands, Skills Development Scotland, and Moray Council. Following initial project scoring and prioritisation, these CSFs were amalgamated and used alongside the investment objectives for each project to evaluate the long list of possible options. The board decided that all CSF’s should have equal weighting and be used for all projects in the deal to provide a consistent approach to evaluation. Page 73
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Page 62 of 142 CSF1 Strategic Fit (Vision / Government Policy) How well the option provides holistic fit and synergy with other key elements of national, regional, and local strategies CSF2 Potential VFM How well the option maximises the return on the required spend (benefits optimisation) in terms of economy, efficiency, and effectiveness from both the perspective of the organisation and wider society and minimises associated risks. CSF3 Potential Achievability How well the option is likely to be delivered in view of the complexity of the option, and the experience, capability and capacity of the partners involved. CSF4 Supply side capacity How well the option matches the ability of the service providers to deliver the required level of services and business functionality and appeals to the supply-side. CSF5 Potential Affordability How well the option meets the likely availability of funding and matches other funding constraints, including the capital and revenue consequences associated with the proposed investment. Long Listed Options The Treasury’s Green Book suggested options framework was used to generate a reasonable number of options for the long list by systematically working through the available choices for what, how, who, when and funding. These options were generated at OBC stage by holding a series of workshops with a wide group of stakeholders, at which evaluation was undertaken to assess how well each option met the investment objectives and CSFs at each stage. A short list of options was then developed, and an economic appraisal performed by Michael O’Donnell, Senior Officer for Economic Strategy and Growth at Moray Council. Based on this analysis, a model was selected as the optimum solution in relation to estimated benefit and service delivery and included in the Outline Business Case (OBC) that was approved in November 2021. In developing the Full Business Case, options as set out in the OBC have been revisited to reflect the current economic climate and supply side capacity. Activities were undertaken to assess the feasibility of delivering the preferred option as identified in the OBC, including stakeholder engagement, site identification and exploring potential delivery models. Page 74
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Page 63 of 142 Key risks affecting delivery of the project were identified and summarised in an issues report that was presented to the Moray Growth Deal Programme Board in July 2022. Rising construction and operational costs, availability of suitable host locations and limited ongoing revenue funding for staff were identified as risks affecting delivery a provision in each Associated School Group (ASG). A period of consultation and project re-scoping was undertaken, and a revised long list of options presented for appraisal by the Early Years STEM Project Board in December 2022. Short- Listed Options From the options appraisal workshops undertaken and detailed in Appendix 1, a range of shortlisted options were developed to be considered for economic appraisal. The five updated options are as follows: Option 1: Business As Usual – No Growth Deal Funding Service Solution Continue promoting and delivering STEM from within Council resources and in line with current STEM provision. Activity would depend on budget and staff availability. Estimated Costs £0 Option 2: Minimum – Hub provision in each Early Learning and Primary Setting, Mobile Offering and Partnership Activity Service Solution Capital funding split across all Early Learning and Primary School settings in Moray to develop STEM learning environments and purchase STEM equipment, as per the needs of the individual setting. This may include purchase of IT and digital equipment, purchase of a STEM resource bank, development of flexible learning spaces, provision of outdoor learning equipment, etc. A large specialist vehicle offering mobile delivery of bespoke learning programmes and exhibition materials, bringing the benefits of a Science Centre to Moray. A portion of capital funding allocated to invest in events, equipment, and facilities at partner locations. Service Requirements STEM Coordinator post responsible for curriculum development, resource management and workforce development. Existing staff in each setting and partners at partner sites will deliver the service. Implementation Phased implementation Funding Requirements Capital funding provided by the Scottish Government and Moray Council. Ongoing revenue costs met by the Moray Council. Page 75
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Page 64 of 142 Estimated Costs Capital: £3,800,000 Revenue: £1,000,000 Option 3: Intermediate – One Central Provision, Mobile and Outreach Offering and Partnership Activity Service Solution Capital funding used to deliver one central provision serving all ASGs in Moray. A Moray STEM Centre with dedicated exhibition space and community learning hub. A mobile solution to transport facilities and equipment, enabling delivery of a “pop-up STEM Centre” in any suitable venue in Moray. A robust outreach provision that includes digital delivery and a central repository of STEM resources. A portion of capital funding allocated to invest in events, equipment, and facilities at partner locations. Service Requirements A small team of staff will deliver the service centrally in collaboration with a multi-agency partnership. Implementation Phased implementation Funding Requirements Initially, capital funding provided by the Scottish Government and Moray Council with ongoing revenue costs met by the Moray Council. Additional funding streams sourced as the project becomes established and opportunities arise. Estimated Costs Capital: £4,400,000 Revenue: £1,460,000 Option 4: Intermediate (Preferred) – A provision in targeted locations across Moray, Mobile and Outreach Offering and Partnership Activity. Service Solution Capital funding used to deliver a network of STEM facilities in targeted locations across Moray. A Moray STEM Centre with dedicated exhibition space and community learning hub, and a network of satellite sites extending the reach of engagements. An Environmental Education Centre specialising in outdoor learning and learning for sustainability. A mobile solution to transport facilities and equipment, enabling delivery of a “pop-up STEM Centre” in any suitable venue in Moray. A robust outreach provision that includes digital delivery and a central repository of STEM resources. A portion of capital funding allocated to invest in events, equipment, and facilities at partner locations. Service Requirements A small team of staff will deliver the service centrally in collaboration with a multi-agency partnership. Page 76
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Page 65 of 142 Implementation Phased implementation Funding Requirements Initially, capital funding provided by the Scottish Government and Moray Council with ongoing revenue costs met by the Moray Council. Additional funding streams sourced as the project becomes established and opportunities arise. Estimated Costs Capital: £4,800,000 Revenue: £1,600,000 Option 5: Maximum – A provision in each Associated School Group (ASG) in Moray, Mobile Offering and Partnership Activity. Service Solution Preferred option at OBC stage. Fixed sites in each ASG in Moray. A bespoke offering dependant on need and geography and utilising existing Moray Council or partner space. A large specialist vehicle offering mobile delivery of bespoke learning programmes and exhibition materials, bringing the benefits of a Science Centre to Moray. A portion of capital funding allocated to invest in events, equipment, and facilities at partner locations. Service Requirements A team of staff will deliver the service centrally in collaboration with a multi-agency partnership. Implementation Phased implementation Funding Requirements Initially, capital funding provided by the Scottish Government and Moray Council with ongoing revenue costs met by the Moray Council. Additional funding streams sourced as the project becomes established and opportunities arise. Estimated Costs Capital: £5,100,000 Revenue: £2,110,000 The likelihood of each of the short-listed options in delivering the project objectives has been evaluated systematically with scores based on the alignment of each option with the investment objectives and Critical Success Factors (CSFs). The scores range from 0 to 5, with 5 indicating strong alignment and 0 indicating no alignment. A narrative summary of this assessment for each option is provided below the table. The investment objectives are as follows: Investment Objective 1 – To increase the availability of STEM opportunities for younger people, through the creation of experiential STEM learning hubs delivering upwards of 9000 engagements per annum by 2032. Investment Objective 2 - To increase participation and attainment in STEM subjects at secondary level by 8%, thereby encouraging uptake at further and higher education and ultimately increasing the STEM skills level in Moray by 2042. Page 77
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Page 66 of 142 Investment Objective 3 - To ensure there is equality of opportunity in STEM education across Moray, ensuring all students aged 3-8 are engaged with the curriculum at least once per annum no matter their location, and increasing female participation in STEM subjects at secondary level by 10% by 2042. Investment Objective 4 – To increase the skills level of early year’s practitioners and primary teachers in the delivery of STEM disciplines, with an increase of 32 STEM champions in settings by 2032. Investment Objective 5 – To strengthen science capital within communities through the provision of 10 public engagement events per annum, thereby encouraging parental engagement, inter-generational learning, and raising the awareness of STEM related careers by 2032. Investment Objective 6 – To develop new forms of delivery through multi- agency collaboration and inter-disciplinary working, engaging 400 students aged 3-12 in partner led programmes and events, and increasing the number of industry and community STEM Ambassadors in Moray by 50% by 2032. Options Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 Objectives Investment Objective 1 1 2 3 5 5 Investment Objective 2 1 3 4 5 4 Investment Objective 3 1 4 2 4 5 Investment Objective 4 1 4 4 5 4 Investment Objective 5 1 2 4 5 5 Investment Objective 6 1 2 4 5 5 CSFs Strategic Fit / Vision 1 2 3 5 5 Potential VFM 3 2 4 5 3 Potential Achievability 5 3 5 5 1 Supply Side Capacity 5 4 5 5 1 Potential Affordability 5 5 5 5 1 Total Score 25 33 43 54 39 Discounted Possible Possible Preferred Discounted Page 78
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Page 67 of 142 Option 1: Business As Usual – No Growth Deal Funding This option requires no intervention or investment in education and given that there is no anticipated change in capital or revenue funding required, scores well across some CSFs in terms of potential achievability, ensuring there is supply side capacity to deliver, and affordability. However, the current STEM provision lacks resource to deliver meaningful STEM engagements, and the target audience (age 3-8) is largely underserved. STEM activity is achieved through ad-hoc piecemeal delivery and partnership activity is uncoordinated with little evidence of impact. This Option therefore scores poorly across the investment objectives and strategic fit, and relatively poorly on Value for Money (VfM) given the likelihood of wasted resource through duplication. Option 2: Minimum – Hub provision in each Early Learning and Primary Setting, Mobile Offering, and Partnership Activity With this option, capital funding would be split across Associated School Groups (ASG)s and given directly to Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) and primary settings to invest in resources, facilities, and equipment, as per the needs of the individual setting. Pupils would have the opportunity to engage with the STEM curriculum daily, having the resource to do so, therefore the option is likely to have moderate impact on attainment in the short term. However, as this will be a one-off investment, the option has a high risk of obsoletion given the rate at which STEM technology develops. While a STEM Coordinator resource would enhance workforce development, engagements would rely on existing staffing structures and enthusiasm of practitioners. The option is also likely to have lower impact on parental engagement, intergenerational learning, and multi-agency collaboration with uncoordinated and piece meal delivery that lacks specialism. Inspirational experiences could be delivered using a large specialist mobile solution, however operation, maintenance, and sustainability of this type of vehicle does not represent a value for money solution. While option 2 delivers equitable access with funding transferred directly to the beneficiaries, it is likely to have lower impact over the longer term. Option 3: Intermediate – One Central Provision, Mobile and Outreach Offering, and Partnership Activity With Option 3, funding would be used to develop one central facility, complemented by a robust outreach provision and mobile offering. A physical site located out with the learning estate offers greater accessibility to employers, parents and the wider community and has significant impact in terms of multi-agency collaboration and inter- generational learning. Partners can access the facilities to deliver diverse learning opportunities to a wider audience and a state-of-the art central facility would create interest among audiences and likely attract investment from external funders. The centre would act as a hub to coordinate and catalyse activity, developing educational programmes, coordinating, and promoting public events, and working closely with the STEM ambassador network to increase their impact. The offer would be further enhanced by a mobile “pop-up” offering and a central repository of STEM resources Page 79
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Page 68 of 142 available for setting to borrow for classroom-based STEM activity. This option offers a well-considered and robust learning programme however, impact is limited by the extent of engagements, as one facility has less capacity to serve audiences on a frequent basis. Additionally, while being located centrally in Moray, the option does not address rural poverty to the same extent as other options considered. Option 4: Intermediate (Preferred) – A provision in targeted locations across Moray, Mobile and Outreach Offering, and Partnership Activity. Option 4 delivers all the benefits of option 3 while extending the reach and quality of STEM engagements. The inclusion of satellite sites, in addition to the central coordinating facility and mobile “pop-up” solution as described in option 3, addresses rurality as a barrier to participation, though to a lesser extent than option 5. The incorporation of a unique outdoor environmental education centre delivered in collaboration with a local environmental charity, offers young people experiential hands-on learning in the natural environment, and learning for sustainability opportunities, thereby contributing to Moray Councils Net Zero ambitions. This option delivers against all investment objectives whilst satisfying the critical success factors in terms of affordability, achievability, and supply side capacity. Revenue commitments are higher than options 2 and 3, with a dedicated staffing resource required to deliver activity across all sites, however costs can be met within allocated budgets and therefore represents the optimum balance between affordability and benefits realisation. Option 5: Maximum – A provision in each Associated School Group (ASG) in Moray, Mobile Offering and Partnership Activity. Option 5 was the preferred option at OBC stage as it delivers against all investment objectives and offers greatest ASG coverage. A provision in each ASG allows learners to engage with the STEM curriculum on a frequent basis, and provides high impact regarding STEM attainment, family engagement and multi-agency collaboration. Option 5 was taken forward for further appraisal at OBC stage, with activities undertaken to determine feasibility of the solution. Rising construction and operational costs, availability of suitable host locations in each ASG, and limited ongoing revenue funding for staff were identified as key issues, likely to impact affordability and achievability of the solution. Engagement with education staff indicated limited utilisation of facilities in rural areas, with preference for a flexible, mobile solution in those locations. It was therefore determined that option 5 did not represent a value for money solution, nor was it achievable within allocated budget. Option 5 was therefore discounted and not taken included as part of the economic appraisal. Economic Appraisal This section provides a detailed overview of the main costs, benefits and value for money associated with each of the selected options, and the approach taken to determining the preferred option. The full appraisal conducted by Ekosgen is included in Appendix 2 and summarised in this section. Page 80
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Page 69 of 142 Quantitative Economic Appraisal A quantitative economic appraisal was undertaken of the following short-listed options for the Moray Early Years STEM project: • Option 1 (Business as Usual): The reference baseline case where no Moray Growth Deal funding would be allocated, continuing to promote and deliver STEM in line with current STEM provision. • Option 2 (Minimum): Hub provision in each Early Learning and Primary Setting, Mobile Offering, and Partnership Activity. • Option 3 (Intermediate): One Central Provision, Mobile and Outreach Offering, and Partnership Activity. • Option 4 (Intermediate: Preferred Option): A provision in targeted locations across Moray, Mobile and Outreach Offering, and Partnership Activity. This has been conducted firstly with a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) appraisal of each option, followed by an assessment of the employment, and Gross Value Added (GVA) impacts of project expenditures in Moray. Description, Sources, and Assumptions This Cost Benefit Analysis was undertaken in line with HM Treasury Green Book (2022) guidance.75 The benefits that have been appraised are those that were included in the Outline Business Case (OBC), namely: • Uplift in Salary • Income Multiplier • Unemployment Prevention These benefits have been reviewed, changed and/or updated. The new financial costs for each option were included. Option 1 has been presented as the “Business as Usual” case to demonstrate the counterfactual against which all proposals for change can be compared. Year zero in this appraisal is the 2020/21 financial year as this was the year funding allocations were confirmed in the Moray Growth Deal (MGD) Heads of Terms. The MGD consists of a programme of projects and therefore using 2020/21 as the base year allows comparison between the projects as they have different start dates within the 15-year programme. The project was initially appraised over 21 years, with the last year being 2040/41, with benefits realisation not beginning until into the 2030s. The benefit streams were over seven years and built up quite gradually over that period, leading to, for example, BCRs at the Moray level of around or below 1.0. Advice from Scottish Government suggested increasing the length of the appraisal period to demonstrate the longer- 75 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/623d99f5e90e075f14254676/Green_Book_2022.pdf Page 81
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Page 70 of 142 term benefits of the project. Therefore, the appraisal period has been extended up to 2045/46. In this report the benefit streams are shown for the two following time periods: • 10 years-from 2034/35 to 2043/44; and • 12 years-from 2034/35 to 2045/46. This is for illustrative purposes, with less detail shown than for the appraisal covering the 10-year benefits stream. Financial costs and benefits have been expressed in real terms (i.e. today’s prices) with the effects of inflation removed. The financial costs supplied to ekosgen by Moray Council were expressed in nominal terms. The individual year’s inflation rates that were used to deflate nominal cost prices were as follows: • 2024/2025: 1.9%. • 2025/2026: 1.1%. • 2026/2027: 1.0%. • 2027/2028: 1.6%; and • 2028/2029 and subsequent years: 2.0% These figures are based on information within the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook Reports as per guidance in The Green Book Central Government Guidance on Appraisal and Evaluation. The values of the two benefits-Salary uplift and Unemployment related benefits-are expressed in real terms. In each year they are assumed to increase at the level of general inflation such that there is no real terms increase or decrease in the values during the appraisal period. Cost Benefit Analyses (CBAs) were undertaken at three geographical levels: • At the Moray local authority level • At the Scotland level • At the United Kingdom level The net present value (NPV) of costs and benefits were calculated using a discount rate of 3.5%. The coverage and basis of the numbers underpinning the OBC’s CBA results were reviewed including, importantly, the changes to the content each of Options 1, 2, 3, 4 presented compared to that in the OBC. That included reviewing the FBC’s analysis of each option’s: • Content • Strengths and weaknesses, including the expected number of engagements. • Scored performance against Investment Objectives and Critical Success Factors. Page 82
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Page 71 of 142 The timings of the various project elements were also reviewed as these determine when the benefits will begin to be realised. The analysis of each option is summarised below. It was used to help scale the relative level of impacts between Options 1, 2, 3 and 4. Estimating Costs Project Costs The project’s costs for each option are provided in the table below. These costs are the same for each of the three geographies of Moray, Scotland, and UK. They cover the appraisal period between 2020/21 and 2045/46. In each option, most of the costs are capital costs. Option 4 has the highest total project cost at around £6.4 million. Option 3 costs are around £5.8 million, with Option 2 presenting the lowest costs at around £4.8 million (75% of the cost of Option 4). Project Costs (£,000) Option Capital Costs Revenue Costs Total Costs 1 - - - 2 3,800 998 4,798 3 4,400 1,459 5,859 4 4,800 1,599 6,399 Source: Consultant Calculations Detailed Costs for all Options are included in Figures 13 and 14. Assumptions • The mechanism for delivery of Option 2 is to award Grants to individual settings to develop STEM Hubs within each location. This may include renovation costs, furniture or equipment costs, dependent on the needs of the setting. The value of grant awarded is based on £300 per pupil enrolled. • Option 3 includes construction and exhibition costs for a state-of-the-the-art STEM facility with an assumed floor space of 600m2. Land purchasing costs have not been included as renovation of existing Moray Council sites is assumed. Construction costs are estimated at £3000 per sqm and exhibition costs at £2000 per sqm for 400 m2 of exhibition space. • Option 5 includes renovation costs for 8 STEM Hub locations at an assumed rate of £3000 per sqm with an assumed floor space of 100sqm per site. Exhibition costs are based on £2000 per sqm for 50 sqm of exhibition space at each site. • Utilities costs at £35/sqm have been assumed for all sites. Page 83
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Page 72 of 142 Figure 13 Cost Estimates for options 2 & 3, Moray Council Option 2 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 30/31 31/32 32/33 33/34 Total Capital Spend (SG and Moray Council) STEM Hubs Costs (School Grants) £45,000 £709,500 £632,600 £618,300 £594,600 £2,600,000 Mobile Costs £520,000 £10,000 £15,000 £10,000 £15,000 £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 £600,000 Community STEM Grants £100,000 £100,000 £100,000 £100,000 £100,000 £100,000 £600,000 £0 £45,000 £520,000 £10,000 £824,500 £742,600 £733,300 £704,600 £110,000 £110,000 £0 £0 £3,800,000 Revenue Spend (Moray Council) Staff Project Manager £53,595 £71,338 £12,922 £137,855 STEM Engagement Manager 1 FTE £45,109 £71,238 £73,375 £75,576 £77,844 £80,179 £82,584 £85,062 £87,614 £90,242 £768,823 Mobile Running Costs £8,000 £8,240 £8,487 £8,742 £9,004 £9,274 £9,552 £9,839 £10,134 £10,438 £91,711 Total Revenue Costs £53,595 £71,338 £66,031 £79,478 £81,862 £84,318 £86,848 £89,453 £92,137 £94,901 £97,748 £100,680 £998,389 Option 3 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 30/31 31/32 32/33 33/34 Total Capital Spend (SG and Moray Council) Professional Fees £200,000 £200,000 £400,000 Construction Costs £800,000 £1,000,000 £1,800,000 Exhibition / Equipment Costs £400,000 £400,000 £100,000 £900,000 Mobile Outreach Costs £80,000 £160,000 £240,000 Ongoing Equipment Costs £60,000 £80,000 £80,000 £80,000 £80,000 £80,000 £460,000 STEM Grants 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 £600,000 £0 £200,000 £1,080,000 £1,560,000 £560,000 £280,000 £180,000 £180,000 £180,000 £180,000 £0 £0 £4,400,000 Revenue Spend (Moray Council) Staff Project Manager £53,595 £71,338 £12,922 £137,855 STEM Engagement Manager 0.7 FTE £30,528 £47,165 £48,580 £50,037 £51,538 £53,085 £54,677 £56,317 £58,007 £59,747 £509,682 STEM Coordinator 0.7 FTE £28,047 £28,888 £29,755 £30,647 £31,567 £32,514 £33,489 £34,494 £35,529 £284,929 Branding & Marketing £5,000 £5,000 Rent & Rates £10,000 £10,300 £10,609 £10,927 £11,255 £11,593 £11,941 £12,299 £12,668 £101,591 Insurances £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £18,000 Utilities £15,000 £15,450 £15,914 £16,391 £16,883 £17,389 £17,911 £18,448 £19,002 £152,387 Cleaning costs £10,000 £10,300 £10,609 £10,927 £11,255 £11,593 £11,941 £12,299 £12,668 £101,591 Consumables £5,000 £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 £95,000 Mobile Solution Running Costs £5,000 £5,600 £5,712 £5,826 £5,943 £6,062 £6,183 £6,307 £6,433 £53,065 Total Revenue Costs £53,595 £71,338 £53,450 £127,212 £131,118 £134,635 £138,257 £141,987 £145,827 £149,781 £153,853 £158,045 £1,459,099 Page 84
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Page 73 of 142 Figure 14 Cost Estimates for options 4 & 5, Moray Counci Option 4 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 30/31 31/32 32/33 33/34 Total Capital Spend (SG and Moray Council) Professional Fees £46,493 £127,279 £70,581 £80,000 £70,000 £20,000 £414,353 Construction Costs £596,750 £448,897 £830,000 £350,000 £350,000 £2,575,647 Exhibition/ Equipment Costs £20,000 £238,001 £301,999 £200,000 £200,000 £960,000 Mobile Outreach Costs £70,000 £180,000 £250,000 Ongoing Equipment Costs £100,000 £100,000 £100,000 £300,000 STEM Grants 100000 100000 100000 £300,000 £0 £66,493 £1,032,030 £1,001,477 £910,000 £620,000 £550,000 £200,000 £200,000 £220,000 £0 £0 £4,800,000 Revenue Spend (Moray Council) Staff Project Manager £53,595 £71,338 £12,922 £137,855 STEM Engagement Manager 0.7 FTE £30,528 £47,165 £48,580 £50,037 £51,538 £53,085 £54,677 £56,317 £58,007 £59,747 £509,682 STEM Coordinator 0.7 FTE £28,047 £28,888 £29,755 £30,648 £31,567 £32,514 £33,490 £34,494 £35,529 £284,932 STEM Coordinator 0.7 FTE £28,047 £28,888 £29,755 £30,648 £31,567 £32,514 £33,490 £34,494 £35,529 £284,932 Branding & Marketing £7,000 £7,000 Rental & Utilties £9,270 £9,548 £14,752 £20,260 £20,865 £21,492 £22,137 £22,801 £23,485 £164,610 Insurances £2,000 £2,060 £2,122 £2,185 £2,251 £2,319 £2,388 £2,460 £2,534 £2,610 £22,928 Consumables £5,000 £10,000 £10,000 £15,000 £15,000 £15,000 £15,000 £15,000 £15,000 £15,000 £130,000 Mobile Solution Running Costs £5,000 £5,150 £5,305 £5,464 £5,628 £5,796 £5,970 £6,149 £6,334 £6,524 £57,319 Total Revenue Costs £53,595 £71,338 £62,450 £129,739 £133,331 £146,949 £155,972 £160,199 £164,556 £169,043 £173,664 £178,424 £1,599,260 Option 5 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 30/31 31/32 32/33 33/34 Total Capital Spend (SG and Moray Council) Professional Fees 80000 75000 75000 75000 75000 20000 £400,000 Construction Costs £600,000 £600,000 £600,000 £600,000 £2,400,000 Exhibition/ Equipment Costs £200,000 £200,000 £200,000 £200,000 £800,000 Mobile Costs £520,000 £10,000 £15,000 £10,000 £15,000 £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 £600,000 Ongoing Equipment Costs £30,000 £30,000 £60,000 £60,000 £60,000 £60,000 £300,000 STEM Grants 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 100000 £600,000 £0 £0 £600,000 £10,000 £1,020,000 £1,015,000 £1,050,000 £1,045,000 £170,000 £190,000 £0 £0 £5,100,000 Revenue Spend (Moray Council) Staff Project Manager £53,595 £71,338 £12,922 £137,855 STEM Engagement Manager 0.7 FTE £30,528 £47,165 £48,580 £50,037 £51,538 £53,085 £54,677 £56,317 £58,007 £59,747 £509,682 STEM Coordinator 0.7 FTE £28,888 £29,755 £30,647 £31,567 £32,514 £33,489 £34,494 £35,529 £256,882 STEM Coordinator 0.7 FTE £29,755 £30,648 £31,567 £32,514 £33,490 £34,494 £35,529 £227,997 STEM Coordinator 0.7 FTE £30,647 £31,566 £32,513 £33,489 £34,493 £35,528 £198,237 STEM Coordinator 0.7 FTE £31,567 £32,514 £33,489 £34,494 £35,529 £167,593 Branding & Marketing £5,000 £5,000 Rental & Utilities £7,000 £14,000 £21,000 £28,000 £28,840 £29,705 £30,596 £31,514 £190,656 Insurances £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £2,000 £16,000 Consumables £5,000 £5,000 £15,000 £25,000 £35,000 £45,000 £45,000 £45,000 £45,000 £45,000 £310,000 Mobile Solution Running Costs £8,000 £8,240 £8,487 £8,742 £9,004 £9,274 £9,552 £9,839 £10,134 £10,438 £91,711 Total Revenue Costs £53,595 £71,338 £61,450 £60,405 £109,955 £159,289 £210,484 £263,626 £270,125 £276,819 £283,713 £290,814 £2,111,613 Page 85
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Page 74 of 142 Net Present Value (NPV) of Project Costs The Net Present Value (NPV) of total project costs for each option are shown below: As advised by Scottish Government, the capital costs in Options 3 and 4 include an optimism bias of 15%. Moray Council advised that this level of optimism bias in based on QS’s estimates for minimal intervention construction projects. Total Project Costs (£,000, NPV) Option Total Project Costs 1 - 2 3,522 3 4,740 4 5,125 Source: Consultant Calculations Carbon Emissions Costs The total impact (expressed as a NPV) of the carbon emissions (central estimates) for each of the options is summarised below. These costs are the same for each of the three geographies of Moray, Scotland, and UK. The carbon emission costs represent only a very small percentage of the overall project costs. Carbon Emission Costs: Central Estimates (£,000, NPV) Option 1 2 3 4 NPV - 148 128 108 Source: Consultant Calculations Total Costs Taking the total costs (i.e. the project costs and the carbon emissions costs together), it can be seen in Table 3.4 that Option 4 is the option with the highest costs, at around £5.2 million in Net Present Value. In contrast, Option 2 (which reflects the minimum level of provision sought) presents the lowest costs at around £3.7 million in Net Present Value (roughly 70% of the cost of Option 4). Total Costs (£,000, NPV) Option 1 2 3 4 NPV - 3,671 4,868 5,233 Source: Consultant Calculations Estimating Benefits Scope and Approach to Benefits Appraisal The benefits analysis has been based on the three types of impacts that were included in the Outline Business Case. The OBC work was reviewed and updated to account for changes in the content of options and updated or revised figures underpinning Page 86
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Page 75 of 142 some of the estimation of benefits, and the timing of the various project elements. The three benefits are described and appraised below. These benefits can only be realised from 10-15 years from the date the project begins as the learner will have to go through further or higher education before entering the workforce. Thus, benefits begin to be realised relatively late in the appraisal period (i.e. from 2034/35 onwards). To assess the long term benefits, the appraisal period was extended with results provided for a 10-year benefit stream (to year 2043), and a 12 year (to 2045/46) benefit stream also included for illustrative purposes. Some of the benefits do not start to accrue until the second half of the 2030s.For example, in Option 4 the benefits are forecast to start in the following years: • 2034-2035: Outreach. • 2035-2036: Elgin STEM Centre, Mobile Solution. • 2036-2037: Environmental Sciences STEM Centre. • 2037-2038: Forres STEM Centre. • 2038-2039: Buckie STEM Centre. The results are quite sensitive to the number of years in which benefits are realised and their timing within the appraisal period. As the benefits increase cumulatively over time then the number of years in which they occur significantly affects the results. A change of one or two years of benefits can have a significant impact. This helps to explain the size of some of the benefits that are included in the cost benefit analysis in this report. The discounting process in cost benefit analysis means that benefits that accrue in the later part of the appraisal period are quite heavily discounted with a discount rate of around 50% in 2040-41. However, all the project elements will at least begin to accrue benefits before the end of the appraisal period. Given the long-term nature of the project, they will continue to generate increasing levels of benefits in the years after the end of the appraisal period. Distribution Analysis Given that the proposed development has been designed to increase interest and attainment in STEM for local pupils and early years children in Moray, the geographical distribution of impacts mostly lies within the Moray local authority area. Their actual distribution will reflect a range of factors, e.g. location of the lead contractors and their arrangements for purchases of required goods and services. At present, the following assumptions are made for the forecasted impacts across each benefit: • Uplifts in salary have been estimated to be delivered as a result of young people, inspired by the proposed development, seeking high-quality jobs in STEM. It is estimated that 80% of those receiving an uplift in salary would Page 87
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Page 76 of 142 remain in Moray, 90% would remain in Scotland, and 100% would remain in the UK. • Income multipliers were applied to salary uplift benefits at OBC stage to calculate induced impacts. The multipliers that were applied include a 1.11 multiplier for Moray, a 1.14 multiplier for Scotland and a 1.25 multiplier for UK salary uplifts76. This reflects that, for those that are receiving an uplift in salary, their expenditure on goods and services will be dispersed across the various spatial levels. • It is assumed that, as a result of children and young people receiving good quality jobs after being inspired by the proposed development, there will also be both savings to the public purse (through not having to pay unemployment benefits) and also gains to the public purse (through income tax and National Insurance payments). This appraisal has identified universal credit, Council tax credit, income tax, and both employee and employer National Insurance contributions as the main benefits accrued, with varying impacts being felt at Moray (Council Tax credit savings), Scotland (income tax gains) and UK (National Insurance gains and universal credit savings) levels. Benefit 1: Uplift in salary Raising attainment in STEM subjects will contribute towards addressing two issues. First, Moray has a below national average median wage level and a larger than national average gender pay gap. In 2023 the median wage of residents in Moray (£26,750) was around only 90% of the Scottish average (£29,842)77. Second, in 202178 the gender pay gap figure for Moray was 16%. This compares to a Scottish average of 13%. Moray had the 10th highest pay gap figure of Scotland’s 32 local authorities. This is likely to reflect a combination of lower skill levels and underemployment for women. National education statistics show that fewer students in Moray stay in secondary school until 6th year, on average this is 8.5 percentage points below the Scottish average. This leads to lower academic attainment than the Scottish average, which is multiplied due to lower pass rates in STEM subjects than the national average. In the OBC, a figure for increases in STEM qualifications was applied to a salary uplift resulting from better and more appropriate qualifications. An uplift of 20% (£6,323) was applied. 76 Induced multipliers were estimated based on income multipliers contained in the 2019 Scottish Input-Output Tables. These were estimated as 1.11 for spend in Moray and 1.14 for spend in Scotland as a whole. The UK multiplier was estimated as 1.25 (we understand that UK Government do not produce induced multipliers for use at the UK level). 77 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2023 ONS 78 This is the latest year for which we have been able to source data Page 88
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Page 77 of 142 This figure was refined for the Final Business Case. A revised figure was estimated by comparing the average UK wage levels in various skilled process and manufacturing roles with those currently paid in Moray. The result was an estimate of a £6,884 salary uplift per additional STEM educated student per year. The gross wage figure is a proxy to measure the increased economic value/productivity of the worker. The increased value of the output includes the associated income tax and National Insurance. Therefore, the full amount (i.e. £6,884) per post is included in the appraisal. Not all of those receiving a salary uplift as a result of additional or higher STEM qualifications will have will have taken up a job in Moray. However, we would expect this to largely be the case. It is assumed that: • 80% of the total number of salary uplifts would be in Moray. • 90% would be in Scotland. • 100% would be in the UK. The tables below show the cumulative benefits over 10 years on an annual basis for each of the three Options and each of the three geographical areas. Option 2 Salary Uplift: 10 Year Benefit Stream Year 34-35 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 Total Moray Non- Discounted Totals (£000) 66 199 399 665 931 1,197 1,463 1,729 1,993 2,258 10,901 Discounted Totals (£000) 41 119 230 371 501 623 735 840 935 1,023 5,418 Scotland Non- Discounted Totals (£000) 75 224 449 748 1,047 1,347 1,646 1,945 2,242 2,540 12,264 Discounted Totals (£000) 46 134 259 417 564 700 827 945 1,052 1,151 6,095 UK Non- Discounted Totals (£000) 83 249 499 831 1,164 1,496 1,829 2,161 2,492 2,822 13,626 Discounted Totals (£000) 51 149 288 463 627 778 919 1,049 1,169 1,279 6,773 Source: Consultant Calculations Option 3 Salary Uplift: 10 Year Benefit Stream Year 34-35 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 Total Moray Non- Discounted Totals (£000) 74 223 446 743 1,115 1,487 1,859 2,230 2,605 2,979 13,762 Discounted Totals (£000) 46 133 257 414 600 773 934 1,083 1,222 1,350 6,814 Scotland Page 89
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Page 78 of 142 Non- Discounted Totals (£000) 84 251 502 836 1,255 1,673 2,091 2,509 2,931 3,352 15,483 Discounted Totals (£000) 52 150 289 466 675 870 1,050 1,218 1,375 1,519 7,666 UK Non- Discounted Totals (£000) 93 279 558 929 1,394 1,859 2,323 2,788 3,256 3,724 17,203 Discounted Totals (£000) 57 166 322 517 750 967 1,168 1,354 1,528 1,688 8,518 Source: Consultant Calculations Option 4 Salary Uplift: 10 Year Benefit Stream Year 34-35 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 Total Moray Non- Discounted Totals (£000) 110 233 500 910 1,462 2,015 2,567 3,120 3,672 4,223 18,812 Discounted Totals (£000) 68 139 288 507 787 1,048 1,290 1,515 1,723 1,914 9,280 Scotland Non- Discounted Totals (£000) 124 263 563 1,023 1,645 2,266 2,888 3,510 4,131 4,751 21,163 Discounted Totals (£000) 76 157 324 570 886 1,179 1,451 1,704 1,938 2,154 10,440 UK Non- Discounted Totals (£000) 137 292 625 1,137 1,828 2,518 3,208 3,900 4,590 5,279 23,515 Discounted Totals (£000) 85 174 360 634 984 1,310 1,613 1,894 2,154 2,393 11,600 Source: Consultant Calculations The tables below illustrate the number of individual workers in each year that are in a job with the salary uplift, and the total number of salary uplifts, across the 10-year period. Option 2: Cumulative Numbers of Workers Per Annum with Salary Uplift Year/ Residence 34-35 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 Total Number of Annual Salary Uplifts Moray 10 29 58 97 135 174 213 251 290 328 1,584 Scotland 11 33 65 109 152 196 239 283 326 369 1,781 UK 12 36 72 121 169 217 266 314 362 410 1,979 Source: Consultant Calculations Option 3: Cumulative Numbers of Workers Per Annum with Salary Uplift Year/ Residence 34-35 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 Total Number of Annual Page 90
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Page 79 of 142 Salary Uplifts Moray 11 32 65 108 162 216 270 324 378 433 1,999 Scotland 12 36 73 122 182 243 304 365 426 487 2,249 UK 14 41 81 135 203 270 338 405 473 541 2,499 Source: Consultant Calculations Option 4: Cumulative Numbers of Workers Per Annum with Salary Uplift Year/ Residence 34-35 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 Total Number of Annual Salary Uplifts Moray 16 34 73 132 212 293 373 453 533 613 2,733 Scotland 18 38 82 149 239 329 420 510 600 690 3,074 UK 20 42 91 165 265 366 466 566 667 767 3,416 Source: Consultant Calculations The table below presents the uplift in salary benefits for each option, at the Moray, Scotland, and UK levels. It shows that Option 4 presents a considerably higher Net Present Value at all geographical levels. Uplift In Salary Benefits (£,000, NPV) Option 1 2 3 4 12-year benefit stream NPV (Moray) - 7,702 9,861 13,623 NPV (Scotland) - 8,664 11,093 15,326 NPV (UK) - 9,627 12,326 17,029 10-year benefit stream NPV (Moray) - 5,418 6,814 9,280 NPV (Scotland) - 6,095 7,666 10,440 NPV (UK) - 6,773 8,518 11,600 Source: Consultant Calculations Benefit 2: Income multiplier Based on the OBC work, a multiplier was applied to the total salary uplift per year. This captures the induced income impacts of the salary uplift in the economy. The multipliers applied were: • Moray: 1.11 • Scotland: 1.14 • UK: 1.25 To calculate the indirect and induced effects of the salary uplift the relevant spatial income multiplier has been applied to the salary uplift for each option resulting in the benefits outlined below. These are additional impacts from indirect and induced income over and above the direct salary benefits. As with salary uplift benefits, Option 4 presents the highest benefits. Page 91
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Page 80 of 142 Income Multiplier Benefits (£,000, NPV) Option 1 2 3 4 12-year benefit stream NPV (Moray) - 847 1,085 1,499 NPV (Scotland) - 1,213 1,553 2,146 NPV (UK) - 2,407 3,082 4,257 10-year benefit stream NPV (Moray) - 596 750 1,021 NPV (Scotland) - 853 1,073 1,462 NPV (UK) - 1,693 2,129 2,900 Source: Consultant Calculations Benefit 3: Unemployment prevention It is expected that as the economy automates, and due to Moray’s dependence on manufacturing employment, the unemployment rate will increase due to a mismatch between skills supply and demand. For context, in 2023 there were approximately 6,200 employees working in manufacturing in Moray79. A report by Oxford Economics80 stated that in the EU28, 2 million manufacturing jobs are at risk from automation by 2030. This would equate to 6.67% of jobs lost over a ten-year period. The Highlands and Islands can be viewed as particularly vulnerable due to its current relative lack of automation. Automation at a rate of c30 employees a year equates to a job loss rate of around 0.5% per year (i.e. annually 0.5% of low skilled jobs in manufacturing would be lost), recognising that it is likely that this figure will be either higher or lower in some years. The figure of 0.5% per year is less than the total number of jobs that will be lost. This project alone will not be able to transition all unemployment lost to automation into higher skilled employment. However, it will prevent some future unemployment by upskilling the future workforce with a greater number of STEM qualifications. For Option 4 it is estimated that 30 unemployment’s per annum can be prevented. This figure is seen as reasonable in the context of the current size of the Moray manufacturing sector and the transition to more advanced manufacturing activities. The amount of unemployment reduced under Option 2 is estimated as 20 per annum and 25 per annum under Option 3. This reflects the greater number of STEM qualifications in the labour market under Option 4. By addressing STEM issues there is a measurable benefit to the public purse from not having to provide unemployment benefits and maximising tax and National Insurance income. The total impact of providing unemployment benefits (as well as the losses to the public purse incurred from individuals not being in employment, and therefore not paying income tax or National Insurance) per annum per individual comprises the following (rounded to whole numbers): • Universal Credit: £10,335. • Council Tax Credit: £830. 79 Skills Development Scotland: Regional Skills Assessment: Moray Growth Deal 80 https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/HowRobotsChangetheWorld.pdf Page 92
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Page 81 of 142 • Loss of Income Tax payments: £2,825. • Loss of Employee National Insurance payments: £1,702. • Loss of Employer’s National Insurance payments: £3,402. Thus, the total value of this is £19,094 per individual per annum81. They accrue to the three geographies as follows: • Moray: £830 • Scotland: £3,655 • UK: £19,094 This reflects that some of the savings will accrue to organisations outside Moray. That is in other parts of Scotland (e.g. loss of Income Tax) or outside Scotland (e.g. loss of National Insurance payments to UK Government). The estimated amount of individual unemployment prevented in each year is, on a cumulative basis up until Year 10 of the benefit stream, where after the numbers in Year 11 and Year 12 remain the same as in Year 10 as follows: • Option 2: 20 • Option 3: 25 • Option 4: 30 The tables below show the underlying calculations for the unemployment savings benefits. Option 2: Annual Benefit by Geographical Area (£,000) Year Number of Unemployment’s Avoided Per Year (Cumulative) Moray Scotland UK 1 20 17 73 382 2 40 33 146 764 3 60 50 219 1,146 4 80 66 292 1,528 5 100 83 366 1,909 6 120 100 438 2,291 7 140 116 512 2,673 8 160 133 585 3,055 9 180 149 658 3,436 10 200 166 731 3,818 Total Cumulative Benefits Undiscounted (£,000) 913 4,020 21,002 81 Figures for NI and Income Tax were calculated based on the median salary for Moray in 2023 (£26,750). Tax and NI calculations were undertaken using https://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/salary.php. Universal Credit and Council Tax Credit entitlements were based on an assumed “persona” that was a single individual, aged 19, with no dependents, living alone in a one-bed property with rent around £500pcm (average for a 1-bed flat in Elgin), eligible for JSA and housing benefits, with no disability, other benefits or other income and calculated using: https://www.entitledto.co.uk/benefits-calculator/ Page 93
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Page 82 of 142 Total Cumulative Benefits Discounted (£,000) 461 2,028 10,594 Source: Consultant Calculations Option 3: Annual Benefit by Geographical Area (£,000) Year Number of Unemployment’s Avoided Per Year (Cumulative) Moray Scotland UK 1 25 21 91 477 2 50 42 183 955 3 75 62 274 1,432 4 100 83 366 1,909 5 125 104 457 2,387 6 150 124 548 2,864 7 175 145 639 3,341 8 200 166 731 3,819 9 225 186 822 4,296 10 250 208 914 4,774 Total Cumulative Benefits Undiscounted (£,000) 1,141 5,025 26,254 Total Cumulative Benefits Discounted (£,000) 576 2,535 13,243 Source: Consultant Calculations Option 4: Annual Benefit by Geographical Area (£,000) Year Number of Unemployment’s Avoided Per Year (Cumulative) Moray Scotland UK 1 30 25 110 573 2 60 50 219 1,146 3 90 75 329 1,718 4 120 100 439 2,291 5 150 125 548 2,864 6 180 150 658 3,437 7 210 174 768 4,010 8 240 199 877 4,583 9 270 224 987 5,155 10 300 249 1,096 5,728 Total Cumulative Benefits Undiscounted (£,000) 1,371 6,031 31,505 Total Cumulative Benefits Discounted (£,000) 691 3,042 15,891 Source: Consultant Calculations Taking the above estimations of cost savings in unemployment prevention and the estimated scale of unemployment prevented by each option. The table below presents the benefits of each option at the Moray, Scotland, and UK levels. Page 94
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Page 83 of 142 Unemployment Benefits (£,000, NPV) Option 1 2 3 4 12-year benefit steam NPV (Moray) - 603 754 905 NPV (Scotland) - 2,657 3,322 3,986 NPV (UK) - 13,882 17,353 20,824 10-year benefit stream NPV (Moray) - 461 576 691 NPV (Scotland) - 2,028 2,535 3,042 NPV (UK) - 10,594 13,243 15,891 Source: Consultant Calculations The unemployed prevention benefits in Moray are modest because only the saving of the Council Tax Credit element would be retained there. Likewise, the levels of unemployment prevention benefits for Scotland are relatively modest because most of them accrue at the UK level rather than the Scotland level. The unemployment prevention benefits at the UK level are much higher than at the Moray and Scottish levels because they include all of the five types of benefits described above. Summary of benefits A summary of the benefits accrued at the Moray level is displayed in the table below. Option 4 (the preferred option) has the highest level of benefits. These are over 35% greater than Option 3 and around 75% above those of Option 2. The benefits largely comprise the uplift in salary. The NPV of benefits in the 12-year benefit stream are more than 40% higher than those of the 10-year benefit stream, illustrating the potential cumulative growth in the benefits. Summary of Moray Benefits (£,000, NPV) Option/Benefit 1 2 3 4-Preferred Option 12-year benefit stream Uplift in salary - 7,702 9,861 13,623 Income multiplier - 847 1,085 1,499 Unemployment prevention - 603 754 905 Total - 9,152 11,700 16,027 10-year benefit stream Uplift in salary - 5,418 6,814 9,280 Income multiplier - 596 750 1,021 Unemployment prevention - 461 576 691 Total - 6,475 8,140 10,992 Source: Consultant Calculations The table below shows a summary of the benefits accrued at the Scotland level. The benefits arising from the preferred option (Option 4) are more than 70% of those in Option 2 and around 33% above those in Option 3. The benefits largely compromise the uplifts in salary. The NPV of the benefits in the 12-year stream, are around 40% Page 95
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Page 84 of 142 higher than those of the 10-year benefits stream, again illustrating the potential cumulative growth in the benefits. Summary of Scotland Benefits (£,000, NPV) Option/Benefit 1 2 3 4-Preferred Option 12-year benefit stream Uplift in salary - 8,664 11,093 15,326 Income multiplier - 1,213 1,553 2,146 Unemployment prevention - 2,657 3,322 3,986 Total - 12,534 15,968 21,458 10-year benefit stream Uplift in salary - 6,095 7,666 10,440 Income multiplier - 853 1,073 1,462 Unemployment prevention - 2,028 2,535 3,042 Total - 8,976 11,274 14,944 Source: Consultant Calculations The table below displays the benefits that are gained from each option at the United Kingdom (UK) level. As at the Moray and Scotland levels, Option 4 has the largest benefits. They are around 25% higher than those for Option 3 and around 60% more than those of Option 2. Unlike the Moray and Scotland levels, most of these benefits come from unemployment prevention rather than uplifts in salary. Summary of UK Benefits (£,000, NPV) Option/Benefit 1 2 3 4-Preferred Option 12-year benefit stream Uplift in salary - 9,627 12,326 17,029 Income multiplier - 2,407 3,082 4,257 Unemployment prevention - 13,882 17,353 20,824 Total - 25,916 32,761 42,110 10-year benefit stream Uplift in salary - 6,773 8,518 11,600 Income multiplier - 1,693 2,129 2,900 Unemployment prevention - 10,594 13,243 15,891 Total - 19,060 23,890 30,391 Source: Consultant Calculations Displacement and Deadweight Analysis It is not anticipated that the proposed development will cause displacement as it seeks to both complement existing infrastructure and create new provision where little or none exists currently. The target users and beneficiaries of the development are primarily Moray-based, and therefore activity delivered elsewhere outside of the local authority area will not be displaced. Page 96
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Page 85 of 142 Similarly, as the activity proposed represents entirely new activity for the region in terms of Early Years STEM provision, there is not likely to be any deadweight loss that is attributable to the development. Specifically: • The proposed STEM centres represent an entirely new development for the local authority of Moray, by providing infrastructure and facilities that are not currently offered in the region, namely the main STEM Discovery Centre in Elgin, the Outdoor Environmental Education Centre, and the satellite sites in Buckie and Forres. • The mobile outreach offering will deliver STEM learning that otherwise would not be possible to more remote areas of Moray, reducing rural inequalities. • Content of lessons delivered in these Early Year STEM centres and the overall quality engagements in each learner’s journey will be complementary and additional to the traditional educational pathways in STEM learning for pre-school, primary school and early BGE phase pupils in secondary school. Benefit Cost Ratios Taking the above information in relation to cost and benefits into account, a Benefits Cost Ratio (BCR) can be calculated for each of the options at each spatial level. The tables below demonstrate the BCRs at the Moray, Scotland, and UK levels. At the Moray level Option 4 (the preferred option) has a BCR that is above the other two options-for both the 10-year and 12-year benefit streams. The preferred option also has higher BCRs at the Scotland level than the other two options. At the UK level, each option has a BCR of around 5.0 or higher. Moray Costs and Benefits (£,000, NPV) Option/Benefit 1 2 3 4-Preferred Option 12-year benefit stream Total Benefit - 9,152 11,700 16,027 Total Costs - 3,671 4,868 5,233 Benefit Cost Ratio - 2.5 2.4 3.1 10-year benefit stream Total Benefit - 6,475 8,140 10,992 Total Costs - 3,671 4,868 5,233 Benefit Cost Ratio - 1.8 1.7 2.1 Source: Consultant Calculations Page 97
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Page 86 of 142 Scotland Costs and Benefits (£,000, NPV) Option/Benefit 1 2 3 4-Preferred Option 12-year benefit stream Total Benefit - 12,534 15,968 21,458 Total Costs - 3,671 4,868 5,233 Benefit Cost Ratio - 3.4 3.3 4.1 10-year benefit stream Total Benefit - 8,976 11,274 14,944 Total Costs - 3,671 4,868 5,233 Benefit Cost Ratio - 2.4 2.3 2.9 Source: Consultant Calculations UK Costs and Benefits (£,000, NPV) Option/Benefit 1 2 3 4-Preferred Option 12-year benefit stream Total Benefit - 25,916 32,761 42,110 Total Costs - 3,671 4,868 5,233 Benefit Cost Ratio - 7.1 6.7 8.0 10-year benefit stream Total Benefit - 19,060 23,890 30,391 Total Costs - 3,671 4,868 5,233 Benefit Cost Ratio - 5.2 4.9 5.8 Source: Consultant Calculations The Benefit Cost Ratios are provided for each spatial and option in the table below. As shown, Option 4 is clearly the option that presents the greatest benefit at all levels. Option 2 performs quite closely to Option 3, although this is due to a significantly lower project cost for development than Option 3. Comparison of Options: BCR Option/Benefit Moray Level Scotland Level UK Level 12-year benefit stream 1-Business as Usual - - - 2 1.8 2.4 5.2 3 1.7 2.3 4.9 4-Preferred Option 2.1 2.9 5.8 10-year benefit stream 1-Business as Usual - - - 2 2.5 3.4 7.1 3 2.4 3.3 6.7 4-Preferred Option 3.1 4.1 8.0 Source: Consultant Calculations Page 98
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Page 87 of 142 Optimism Bias As noted earlier, the project costs include a 15% uplift to reflect optimism bias in the construction costs. Optimism bias of 15% was selected based on QS estimates provided by the Moray Council (construction in phase 1 involves light renovation of a known building). In addition, we applied optimism bias to the values of the benefits of salary uplift and reduction in benefit payments to those who would otherwise become unemployed. It had initially been assumed that each of these two benefits would rise by 1% per year (compound) in real terms from 2024-2025 onwards. However, these were removed to avoid the impacts being over optimistic. The effect of our assumption that the salaries and benefits paid to the unemployed would not increase or decrease in real terms is to reduce the overall benefits: • By c18% to the levels of benefits shown in the results for the 10-year benefits stream. • By c20% to the levels of benefits shown in the results for the 12-year benefits stream. Sensitivity Analysis for the Preferred Option Sensitivity analysis has been undertaken to examine the impacts of changes to key variables on the BCRs of Option 4 (the preferred option). The first sensitivity test was a 25% reduction in the number of people in employment with a salary uplift. This was undertaken for each of the Moray, Scotland and the UK levels, and separately for each of the 10-year benefit stream and the 12-year benefit stream. The results are shown in the table below: Page 99
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Page 88 of 142 Option 4: Sensitivity Test: 25% reduction in number of workers with a salary uplift Sensitivity Costs (£,000 NPV) Benefits (£,000 NPV) BCR 12-year benefit stream Moray central estimate 5,233 16,027 3.1 Moray with reduction in number of salary uplifts 5,233 12,247 2.3 Scotland central estimate 5,233 21,458 4.1 Scotland with reduction in number of salary uplifts 5,233 17,090 3.3 UK central estimate 5,233 42,110 8.0 UK with reduction in number of salary uplifts 5,233 36,789 7.0 10-year benefit stream Moray central estimate 5,233 10,991 2.1 Moray with reduction in number of salary uplifts 5,233 8,416 1.6 Scotland central estimate 5,233 14,943 2.9 Scotland with reduction in number of salary uplifts 5,233 11,967 2.3 UK central estimate 5,233 30,391 6.8 UK with reduction in number of salary uplifts 5,233 26,766 5.1 Source: Consultant Calculations The outcome is that the reductions in the BCRs do not result in a significant change in the overall results. The lowest BCR is in the 10-year benefit stream for Moray where the BCR falls from 2.1 to 1.6. The second sensitivity test was reducing the number of employments avoided by 30% from the central estimates. The results are set out at Table 3.24. The reductions in the Moray and Scotland level BCRs are slight and overall-and all remain at above 2.0. Page 100
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Page 89 of 142 Option 4: Sensitivity Test: 30% reduction in number of unemployment’s avoided Sensitivity Costs (£,000 NPV) Benefits (£,000 NPV) BCR 12-year benefit stream Moray central estimate 5,233 16,027 3.1 Moray with reduction in number of unemployment’s avoided 5,233 15,737 3.0 Scotland central estimate 5,233 21,458 4.1 Scotland with reduction in number of unemployment’s avoided 5,233 20,262 3.9 UK central estimate 5,233 42,110 8.0 UK with reduction in number of unemployment’s avoided 5,233 35,863 6.9 10-year benefit stream Moray central estimate 5,233 10,991 2.1 Moray with reduction in number of unemployment’s avoided 5,233 10,784 2.1 Scotland central estimate 5,233 14,943 2.9 Scotland with reduction in number of unemployment’s avoided 5,233 14,031 2.7 UK central estimate 5,233 30,391 5.8 UK with reduction in number of unemployment’s avoided 5,233 25,624 4.9 Source: Consultant Calculations The table below combines the effect of reducing both the number of people in employment with a salary uplift and the number of unemployment’s avoided. Page 101
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Page 90 of 142 Option 4: Sensitivity Test: 25% reduction in the number of workers with salary uplifts and a 30% reduction in number of unemployment’s avoided Sensitivity Costs (£,000 NPV) Benefits (£,000 NPV) BCR 12-year benefit stream Moray central estimate 5,233 16,027 3.1 Moray with sensitivity tests applied 5,233 11,957 2.3 Scotland central estimate 5,233 21,458 4.1 Scotland with sensitivity tests applied 5,233 15,894 3.0 UK central estimate 5,233 42,110 8.0 UK with sensitivity tests applied 5,233 30,542 5.8 10-year benefit stream Moray central estimate 5,233 10,991 2.1 Moray with sensitivity tests applied 5,233 8,209 1.6 Scotland central estimate 5,233 14,943 2.9 Scotland with sensitivity tests applied 5,233 11,056 2.1 UK central estimate 5,233 30,391 5.8 UK with sensitivity tests applied 5,233 21,999 4.2 Source: Consultant Calculations The results show that the BCRs are still generally favourable with the lowest being 10- year benefit stream estimates in Moray and Scotland which are 1.6 and 2.1, respectively. Lastly, we have considered the impact of cost of a 20% rise in the project cost in addition to the reductions in activity shown in the results at Table 3.25. The effects of this are shown at Table 3.26. Page 102
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Page 91 of 142 Option 4: Sensitivity Test: 25% reduction in the number of workers with salary uplifts and a 30% reduction in number of unemployment’s avoided, plus a 20% increase in project costs Sensitivity Costs (£,000 NPV) Benefits (£,000 NPV) BCR 12-year benefit stream Moray central estimate 5,233 16,027 3.1 Moray with sensitivity tests applied 6,280 11,957 1.9 Scotland central estimate 5,233 21,458 4.1 Scotland with sensitivity tests applied 6,280 15,894 2.5 UK central estimate 5,233 42,110 8.0 UK with sensitivity tests applied 6,280 30,542 4.9 10-year benefit stream Moray central estimate 5,233 10,991 2.1 Moray with sensitivity tests applied 6,280 8,209 1.3 Scotland central estimate 5,233 14,943 2.9 Scotland with sensitivity tests applied 6,280 11,056 1.8 UK central estimate 5,233 30,391 5.8 UK with sensitivity tests applied 6,280 21,999 3.5 Source: Consultant Calculations In Moray the BCRs fall to below 2.0 for both the 10 year (1.3) and 12-year benefit streams (1.9). However, they are both more than 1.0. The BCRs for Scotland are between 1.8 (10-year benefit stream) and 2.5 (12-year benefit stream). At the UK level, each of the two BCRs are above 3.0. Employment and GVA impacts in Moray As part of this appraisal, an assessment of the GVA and employment impacts arising from project expenditures on suppliers and the wider supply chain in Moray has been conducted. This expenditure relates to: • Capital spend • Revenue spend (excluding staffing) • Staffing for the project Direct impacts were calculated based on the capital and revenue spend associated with each option. Through existing knowledge, and information provided by Moray Council, specific purchases were allocated to Moray suppliers. These include construction works, partner investment and operating costs of facilities. Page 103
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Page 92 of 142 The financial values were converted into direct employment and GVA impacts by applying sectoral averages of spend to employment and GVA from the Scottish Annual Business Survey82. Indirect and induced impacts were calculated based on relevant multipliers from the 2019 Scottish Government Input-Output Tables83. These Scottish level multipliers were adjusted for leakage-i.e. to allow for impacts taking place outside Moray (e.g. use of suppliers based elsewhere in Scotland). The factors used for Moray were as follows: • Indirect multipliers: 40% of the Scottish multiplier • Induced multipliers: 70% of the Scottish multiplier The table below provides an assessment of the employment impacts in Moray arising from the various project expenditures, expressed in FTE job years.84 As shown, Option 4 delivers the highest number of job years (39), reflecting the higher number of project staff required than in the other two options. Employment impacts for Option 2 are considerably lower than in the other two options. Employment Impacts in Moray from Project Expenditures (FTE Job Years) Expenditure/Option 1 2 3 4 Spend on Capital Items - 3 16 17 Spend on Revenue Items - <1 4 2 Project Staff - 8 14 20 Total - 11 34 39 Source: Consultant Calculations The table below provides an overview of the expected gross value added (GVA) impacts arising from project expenditures on capital and revenue items. The GVA impacts for Option 3 and Option 4 are very similar at around £1.5 million with Option 3 presenting slightly higher impacts being realised. Again, the impacts for Option 2 are much lower. GVA Impacts in Moray from Project Expenditures (£,000) Expenditure/Option 1 2 3 4 Spend on Capital Items - 94 1,244 1,328 Spend on Revenue Items - 36 257 166 Total - 131 1,501 1,494 Source: Consultant Calculations 82 These were for the following sectors/SOC codes: 85 Education, 71 Architectural Fees, 41 Renovation & Redevelopment, 45 Mobile Solution & Outreach Vehicle Purchase, Wrapping, Retrofit & Charging Point, 73 Branding & Marketing, 68 Rent & Rates, 81 Cleaning costs, 77 Mobile Solution Running Costs. 83 These covered the sectors for which direct impacts were calculated. For project staffing spend all calculations were based on project budgets. 84 FTE job years are a measure of employment, equivalent to one person being employed for an entire year. Job years are rounded to the nearest whole number Page 104
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Page 93 of 142 Qualitative Benefits Appraisal A wide range of additional, qualitative benefits will be accrued from the proposed development, beyond the economic impacts identified earlier in this appraisal. The economic impacts from the proposed development only partially reflect its overall value. It is anticipated that additional quantifiable wider benefits may be realised through the operational phase of the Programme. These benefits can be seen across a wide range of themes, including productivity, people, population, place, and Fairer Scotland Duty. The wider socio-economic and qualitative benefits have been taken from the Full Business Case’s Benefits Realisation Plan. Anticipated Qualitative Benefits As part of the development of the Full Business Case, a Benefits Realisation Plan has been developed to capture, measure and review progress against anticipated benefits. The benefits that are anticipated (and not explicitly aligned to quantitative economic benefits) are outlined in the table below. Page 105
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Page 94 of 142 Theme Coding Benefit Productivity Prod.1 Increased alignment of workforce skills with business requirements Prod.5 Increased networking and connections between businesses, communities and the education sector People Peop.1 Increase in numeracy attainment by Moray pupils across all levels Peop.2 Increase in attainment of STEM subjects at National 5 or higher Peop.3 Increase in positive leaver destinations of young people Peop.4 Increase in aspirations of young people to access STEM related careers Peop.5 Strengthening of Science Capital within families Peop.6 Increase in skills within Moray’s education sector Peop.7 Increase in training opportunities within Moray’s education sector Peop.8 Increase in skills levels of Moray residents Peop.9 Increase in learning opportunities, activities and events offered to young people and families Peop.10 Increase in young people, families and communities accessing inspirational learning environments Peop.11 Increase in climate awareness of young people and the wider community Peop.12 Increase in awareness of Moray’s residents of the STEM career opportunities in Moray’s local economy Peop.13 Increase in community and employer participation in the upskilling of young people Population Pop.1 Increase in Health and Wellbeing of young people Place Plac.1 Increased access to specialist learning facilities and digital infrastructure to support learning pathways across all ages Plac.2 Improvement of local services and facilities access by the public Plac.3 Town centre regeneration and increase in town centre activity Fairer Scotland Duty Fair.1 Increased access through building design Fair.2 Reduction in rural inequality To appraise each of the options against the benefits, a weighted score has been attributed to the benefits to reflect the relative importance of each qualitative benefits. To provide relative balance, some of the benefits have been conflated (for example, the benefits focusing on increased numeracy attainment, increased STEM attainment and increase in skills levels of Moray residents have been grouped together as “Increasing attainment / skills levels”). Where there have been any groupings, a proportionate weighting of 10% has been attributed to reflect that multiple benefits found within the qualitative benefits register will be addressed as one of these Page 106
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Page 95 of 142 rationalised benefits. A 10% weighting has also been attributed to the “Reduction in rural inequality” benefit, reflecting the importance placed on ensuring rural equity concerns are addressed during options shortlisting conversations. The groupings, descriptions and weightings attributed to each benefit are provided in the table below. Theme Benefit Code(s) Benefit Description Weighting Productivity Prod.1 Increased alignment of workforce skills with business requirements 5% Prod.5 Increased networking and connections between businesses, communities, and the education sector 5% People Peop.1; Peop.2; Peop.8 Increasing attainment / skills levels 10% Peop.3; Peop.4; Peop.12 Increasing awareness and outcomes in STEM career pathways 10% Peop.5 Strengthening of Science Capital within families 5% Peop.6; Peop.7 Improvements to Moray’s education sector 10% Peop.9: Peop.10 Increased access to inspirational learning environments and activities 10% Peop.11 Increase in climate awareness of young people and the wider community 5% Peop.13 Increase in community and employer participation in the upskilling of young people 5% Population Pop.1 Increase in Health and Wellbeing of young people 5% Place Plac.1 Increased access to specialist learning facilities and digital infrastructure to support learning pathways across all ages 5% Plac.2 Improvement of local services and facilities access by the public 5% Plac.3 Town centre regeneration and increase in town centre activity 5% Fairer Scotland Duty Fair.1 Increased access through building design 5% Fair.2 Reduction in rural inequality 10% Page 107
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Page 96 of 142 Appraisal The likelihood of each option delivering against each of these anticipated conflated benefits has been evaluated systematically in the table below, with scores based on the alignment of each option with the feasibility and magnitude to which each option delivers on these benefits. The scores range from 0 to 5, with 5 indicating strong alignment and 0 indicating no alignment. A narrative summary of this assessment for each option (against the core themes of Productivity, People, Population, Place and Fairer Scotland Duty) is provided below the table. Options 1 and 5 had already been discounted in earlier sections of the Full Business Case. This has been on the basis that Option 1 presents little evidence of impact, is uncoordinated and duplicates activity amongst providers; and the demand for Option 5 has been tested in engagement with education staff who indicated limited utilisation of fixed facilities in rural areas (with a preference for flexible mobile solutions). Neither Option represents a value for money solution, with duplication in Option 1 and underutilisation in Option 5, and both were therefore discounted from the economic appraisal. Given this prior discounting of Options 1 and 5, this qualitative appraisal considers the potential benefits that can be derived from Option 2, Option 3, and Option 4 only. Page 108
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Page 97 of 142 Theme Coding Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Raw (R) and Weighted (W) Scores R W R W R W Productivity Prod.1 1 0.05 3 0.15 3 0.15 Prod.5 2 0.1 4 0.2 5 0.25 People Peop.1; Peop.2; Peop.8 2 0.2 3 0.3 4 0.4 Peop.3; Peop.4; Peop.12 2 0.2 3 0.3 5 0.5 Peop.5 1 0.05 2 0.1 4 0.2 Peop.6; Peop.7 2 0.2 4 0.4 4 0.2 Peop.9; Peop.10 2 0.2 3 0.3 4 0.2 Peop.11 1 0.05 2 0.1 5 0.25 Peop.13 2 0.1 3 0.15 4 0.2 Population Pop.1 1 0.05 2 0.1 4 0.2 Place Plac.1 1 0.05 4 0.2 5 0.25 Plac.2 0 0 4 0.2 5 0.25 Plac.3 0 0 4 0.2 4 0.2 Fairer Scotland Duty Fair.1 0 0 4 0.2 5 0.25 Fair.2 3 0.3 4 0.4 5 0.5 Total Score 20 1.55 49 3.3 66 4.4 Weighted % 31% 66% 88% Option 2 – Minimum Option 2 relates to the provision of a Hub in each of the early learning and primary settings across Moray (to develop STEM learning environments and purchase STEM equipment), the provision of a specialist mobile vehicle offering, and a portion allocated to investment in partner activities, events, and equipment. On productivity, there may be a small increase in the level of STEM activity delivered by the council. This will primarily be driven by the provision of Hubs in early learning and primary settings. The specialist mobile vehicle offering will also increase STEM activity, whilst partnership activity will positively impact networking opportunities and connections between businesses, communities, and the education sector. On people, there may be an improvement around the awareness of STEM education and resources that will result from the Hubs and the mobile solution. The accessibility of STEM learning environments and resources will increase which will benefit learners, to a certain extent, and learner’s STEM skills. Page 109
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Page 98 of 142 On population, there may be a minimal improvement in the health and wellbeing of young people in the region. This will be felt more strongly amongst young people that have not had any exposure to STEM education. On place, there may be minimal impact on facilities, local services, and town centre regeneration. The Hubs will be based in Early Learning and Childcare (ELC), and primary settings so will likely not be accessible to the public nor feature in town centres. Consequently, Plac.2 and Plac.3 have been scored zero. On Fairer Scotland Duty, rural inequality may be reduced by the mobile vehicle offering and partnership events. Improvements in building design will be unaffected by Option 2 as the hubs will be based in previously designed and constructed settings so Fair.2 has been scored zero. In total, Option 2 had a weighted scoring of 31%, the lowest score allocated across each option. Option 3 – Intermediate Option 3 refers to the provision of one central Hub (a Moray STEM Centre with dedicated exhibition space and a community learning hub), the provision of a specialist mobile vehicle to act as a mobile “pop-up STEM centre” with a robust outreach provision (including digital delivery and a central repository of STEM resources) and a portion allocated to investment in partner activities, events, and equipment. As such, Prod.5 has been scored as four. On productivity, there may be a sizeable increase in opportunities for collaboration between business, communities, and the education sector that results from the development of Option 3. The development of a central hub will play a key part in this boost in STEM productivity in the region. On people, there may be a significant boost to the delivery and accessibility of STEM education in the region resulting from Option 3. This could significantly improve opportunities for young people to upskill in STEM and elevate Moray’s STEM education offering with the central hub acting as the catalyst for an increase in STEM learning and awareness. On population, the health and wellbeing of young people in Moray may improve if there is sufficient demand for the central hub over an extended period. An increase in wellbeing could mainly derive from those that are already engaging with STEM. The provision of a hub will significantly improve the educational wellbeing of these young people. Those that have not already engaged significantly with STEM learning may be positively impacted by the robust outreach provision. This can help to ensure that there is equal access to STEM opportunities for young people across Moray. There may be a significant boost to place-based benefits if Option 3 is developed. The building of a central hub which will be accessible to the public and situated in the town centre has resulted in Plac.1, Plac.2, and Plac.3 being scored as four each. Local STEM facilities could benefit extensively from the development of a town centre hub. Page 110
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Page 99 of 142 Fairer Scotland Duty benefits may be increased through the building design of the central hub. A reduction in rural inequality may also follow the development of Option 3 through the specialist mobile vehicle and ‘pop-up’ STEM offer. An effective mobile offer can improve accessibility to STEM education in rural settings and breakdown geographical barriers due to the cost and time associated with transport. In total, Option 3 had a weighted scoring of 66%. Option 4 – Intermediate (Preferred) Option 4 relates to the provision of a network of STEM facilities in targeted locations across Moray, with the development of one central Moray STEM Centre with dedicated exhibition space and a community learning hub, a network of satellite sites extending the reach of engagements, and the delivery of a bespoke Environmental Education Centre specialising in outdoor and sustainability learning. Also included in this Option is the specialist mobile vehicle and robust outreach offering expressed in Option 3, and the allocation of funding for partner events, equipment and facilities outlined in Options 2 and 3. On productivity, the development of Option 4 could significantly increase the opportunity for STEM networking connections. The provision of coordinating STEM facilities in targeted locations across the region could cement STEM education ecosystem which positively impacts businesses, communities, and the education sector. Satellite sites and the specialist vehicle will help to promote STEM productivity across the region. Consequently, Prod.5 has been scored as five. On people, Option 4 scores well across each benefit. Increasing awareness and outcomes in STEM career pathways may be developed through the coordinated network of facilities, the central hub, the mobile offer, and the events and equipment. Increase in climate awareness of young people and the wider community may be significantly impacted by the development of a bespoke Environmental Education Centre. The proposed centre will specialise in outdoor and sustainability learning which can help to boost young people’s awareness of environmental challenges and the ways in which STEM can address these challenges. On population, a significant increase in wellbeing may be induced by the development of Option 4. If STEM engagement is targeted at specific communities and individuals that will benefit from STEM learning, then their overall wellbeing can be positively impacted. On place, there may be significant benefits derived from the development of Option 4. In particular, the development of one central Moray STEM Centre and the delivery of a bespoke Environmental Education Centre may increase access to specialist learning facilities to a significant extent. Improvements to local services and facilities accessible to the public will also benefit from Option 4 as will the town centre. On Fairer Scotland Duty, targeted STEM facilities, proposed as part of Option 4, can drastically reduce rural inequality (in terms of access to STEM education). Increased Page 111
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Page 100 of 142 access through building design will also be positively impacted by Option 4 due to the construction and delivery of bespoke and specialist STEM spaces. In total, Option 4 had a weighted scoring of 88%, the highest score across each option. The proposed delivery of a bespoke Environmental Education Centre and proposed targeted STEM facilities had significant influence on the scoring of the benefits derived from Option 4. This is in addition to the network of satellite sites, the mobile offer, and the robust outreach offering expressed in other options. Carbon Impacts At this stage, a carbon assessment for the embodied carbon of construction during the project has been undertaken in the first instance. The main capital carbon-generating elements of this project are the proposed development of STEM or education centres / hubs, satellite sites, and the mobile solution proposed for Option 4. For the development of a large central co-ordinating hub hosted at Elgin Library an input proxy for embodied tCO2e of 0.69 has been used.85 We have assumed a total construction footprint of 300m2 which gives an estimated total of embodied tCO2e for one item as 207.86 An input proxy, for annual energy use for this item, of 125 kWh/m2 has been used so the operational carbon at 300m2 is estimated as 37,500 kWh.87 For the development of the mobile “pop-up” offer (3.5 tonne EV vehicle), serving Speyside and rural areas, an input proxy for embodied tCO2e of 8.8 has been used.88 We have not assumed a total construction area footprint so an estimated total of embodied tCO2e for one item as 8.8. An input proxy, for annual energy use for this item, of 3,750 kWh/m2 has been used so the operational carbon is estimated as 3,750 kWh.89 For the development of satellite sites (such as sites at Buckie and Forres) an input proxy for embodied tCO2e of 0.485 has been used.90 We have assumed a total construction footprint of 150m2 which gives an estimated total of embodied tCO2e for one item as 72.75. Total of embodied tCO2e for two items is estimated as 145.5. An 85 Local or neighbourhood centre: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/urban-lab/publications/2014/oct/demolition-or- refurbishment-social-housing 86 The estimated embodied carbon values presented in this section do not include an additional contingency percentage to cover missing fittings, coverings, installations, etc. 87 Proxy annual energy use from European Commission on energy consumption per m2 for non- residential buildings (proxy figure divided by two to reflect part time operation of the facility): https://energy.ec.europa.eu/index_en 88 https://www.zemo.org.uk/assets/workingdocuments/MC-P-11- 15a%20Lifecycle%20emissions%20report.pdf 89 Proxy energy consumption estimated from LDV EV80 electric 3.5 tonne van data sheet based on one full charge mileage used each week for 48 working weeks: https://myldv.co.uk/ev80-spec-sheets/. 90 Library or community centre: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/urban-lab/publications/2014/oct/demolition-or- refurbishment-social-housing Page 112
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Page 101 of 142 input proxy, for annual energy use for this item, of 125 kWh/m2 has been used so the operational carbon at 150m2 is estimated as 37,500 kWh.91 For the development of outdoor learning delivered in a local natural environment an input proxy for embodied tCO2e of 0.01 has been used.92 We have assumed a total construction footprint of 0m2 which gives an estimated total of embodied tCO2e for one item as 0. An input proxy, for annual energy use for this item, of 0 kWh/m2 has been used so the operational carbon at 0m2 is estimated as 0 kWh.93 The estimated total embodied tCO2e for the project described is 397.43. Total operational tCO2e for project is 547.43. The estimated total energy use is 78,750 kWh. This accounts for: • 1 x large central co-ordinating hub hosted at Elgin Library and Mobile “pop-up” offer serving Speyside and rural areas. • 2 x satellite sites in Buckie and Forres • 1 x Outdoor Education Centre, delivered in local natural environment. The table below shows the carbon emissions, embodied and operational, for the project. Total estimated monetised carbon values are also presented at 2028 prices in low, central, and high scenarios.94 Carbon Emissions Total estimated carbon emissions (tCO2e) Total estimated monetised carbon values (2028 prices) Low Central High Embodied 397 £54,050 £108,101 £162,151 Operational 547 £74,450 £148,901 £223,351 Total 945 £128,501 £257,002 £385,503 Source: ekosgen carbon assessment The estimated total embodied carbon cost for the project (at 2028 values) is £108,101. If carbon values are low, then the estimated total embodied carbon cost is £54,050 whereas if they are high then the estimated total embodied carbon cost is £162,151. The estimated total operational carbon cost for the project (at 2028 values) is £148,901. If carbon values are low, then the estimated total operational carbon cost is £74,450 whereas if they are high then the estimated total operational carbon cost is £223,351. 91 Proxy annual energy use from European Commission on energy consumption per m2 for non- residential buildings https://ec.europa.eu/energy/content/energy-consumption-m%C2%B2-2_en. 92 Proxy tCO2e determined with an arbitrary figure to account for building type (outdoor shed). 93 Proxy energy consumption input as owing to the building type. 94 Data obtained from UK Government (2 September 2021) Policy Paper 'Valuation of greenhouse gas emissions: for policy appraisal and evaluation'. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/valuing-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-policy- appraisal/valuation-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions-for-policy-appraisal-and-evaluation Page 113
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Page 102 of 142 The total estimated carbon cost for the project (at 2028 values) is £257,002. If carbon values are low, then the estimated total carbon cost is £128,501 whereas if they are high then the estimated total carbon cost is £385,503. Figure 15 Estimated carbon emissions (tCO2e) 2021 to 2046 Source: ekosgen carbon assessment Risk The key risks associated with the preferred option have been identified and outlined below: Risk type Risk Potential mitigation Reputational risk No change in community attitudes or regular repeat visitations to STEM centre infrastructure. Improvements in STEM attainment levels not realised. Stakeholder consultation throughout the design process to understand need and create a resource that will attract audiences. Flexible and dynamic approach to curriculum development and project delivery. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 Embodied Operational Embodied + Operational (Control) Embodied + Operational (Control) Cumulative Page 114
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Page 103 of 142 Risk type Risk Potential mitigation Legal risk Inability to acquire sites or develop partnership agreements that satisfy subsidy control legislation. Regular and effective communication with partners and development of Memorandums of Understanding at an early stage. Engage legal support at an early stage regarding subsidy compliance. Planning risk Failure to get planning consents or planning processes delay progress. Moray Council architecture team appointed to progress phase 1 development planning. Close liaison across departments. Build risk Rising construction costs and scope creep that impact on deliverability of the project that could affect outcomes. Experienced architectural team to provide budgets and sound project management. Phased implementation that will identify rising costs and make early interventions and value engineering. Project has been re- scoped in response to rising constructions costs with fewer sites taken forward for development. Project intelligence / environmental risk Unanticipated external risks cause delays or other impacts on project performance. Regular liaison with key stakeholders, including Scottish and UK governments. Procurement risk Delays caused by procurement processes or lack of suitable suppliers Early market engagement and adherence to established procurement frameworks. Operational risk Difficulty recruiting and retaining staff, inability to develop volunteer network, lack of collaboration between partners. STEM Coordinator posts to offer flexible working arrangements. Early engagement with STEM Ambassadors network, partner providers, third sector. Page 115
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Page 104 of 142 Risk type Risk Potential mitigation Demand risk The projected increase in STEM jobs does not materialise Keep up to date with latest labour market developments Utilities risk Required utilities are constrained in selected sites, higher cost of provision of utilities. Early site investigations and appropriate, evidence-based cost assumptions. Funding risk Anticipated MGD funding from Scottish Government and Moray Council is not available or not available at anticipated level. Additional funding sources cannot be identified. Adherence to business case processes and early sighting on funding requirements. Engage STEM employers for financial contribution. Pursue external grant awards throughout project delivery. Revenue Risk Insufficient revenue budget to realise project scope, revenue costs unaccounted for or higher than predicted. Project has been developed in line with allocated revenue budgets. Co-location and partnership agreements minimise ongoing operational costs. Revenue requirements for limited staffing resource met my Moray Council. Additional funding streams sources throughout project delivery. Page 116
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Page 105 of 142 4. The Commercial Case Required Services These are as follows: Project element Detail STEM Centre Network Creation of state-of-the-art facilities hosted within community settings across Moray, including a central hub in Morays central public library at Elgin Cooper Park, and satellite sites in the areas of Forres of Buckie. Required services include: • Site acquisition • Renovation and construction • Exhibition manufacture and installation • Fit out of furniture and ICT. • Equipment Purchase Mobile Solution A mobile solution with specialist branding and fitted out with mobile facilities and equipment, including portable exhibits. Required services include: • Purchase of a medium sized electric van • Specialist fit out and branding. • Purchase of mobile furniture and ICT equipment • Manufacture of portable exhibits • Purchase of supplementary STEM equipment Outreach Programme A central repository of STEM resources available settings to borrow for classroom-based STEM activity. Required services include: • Learning programme development • Purchase of equipment and curation of themed kits. Environmental Sciences STEM Learning Centre Creation of an Environmental Sciences STEM Learning Centre, developed, and delivered in partnership with the Local Environmental Charity Wild Things! Required services include: • Feasibility study • Public consultation • Court approval for change of land use • Site acquisition and leasing arrangements • Land development. Page 117
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Page 106 of 142 Partnership Investment (STEM Grant Scheme) A portion of Moray Growth Deal funding ring fenced to support development of partner facilities and community-based STEM programmes and events. Required services include: • Stakeholder engagement • Development of STEM Grant Scheme Educational Programme Development of an educational programme that covers the core curricular areas of Science, Technology and Numeracy while introducing career pathways in the context of Moray’s local economy. Required Services include: • Stakeholder engagement • Learning programme development • Digital portal development STEM Office A dedicated team of STEM Coordinators will be employed to manage activity across all elements of the project, including outreach, STEM delivery at the centres, and co-ordination of partner activity. Required Services include: • Moray Council internal staff recruitment or • Contract for Services Outline of the Students Journey Engagement with this STEM initiative starts early, with children as young as 3 invited to a local STEM centre for an inspirational experience. The child, as part of their Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) setting, will travel to an Early Years STEM Centre, either by foot or by bus. A centre may include a fixed site within Buckie, Elgin or Forres, or a pop-up facility in more rural locations. Travel can be arranged at no cost using the young person’s bus pass, with recent investments as part of the Bus Revolution project allowing public transport to become increasingly more accessible. On arrival the child will be greeted by a member of staff who will make introductions and provide safety information. The child will then enter the Discovery Zone, an open- ended child centred experience designed to inspire and excite. This area will include a variety of STEM experiences, including role play areas, makerspaces, interactive exhibits, block play, and digital learning opportunities. Learning content will be aligned to the Scottish Curriculum for Excellence while introducing career pathways in the context of Morays local economy. This may involve, for example, a space station, Page 118
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Page 107 of 142 where children could role play as an astronaut or engineer, designing and building a rocket and launching on the air table. Children will explore this space freely, with support and guidance from the STEM coordinator who will facilitate the session, and from the Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) setting practitioners who will have become familiar with the environment, following attendance at teacher taster sessions and CPD training. During this half day visit, the child, along with their peers, will attend a short 45-minute workshop focused on a particular area of STEM. Activities delivered in this session will be simple and easy to recreate in the ELC setting. Activities will focus on inter disciplinary learning, integrating literacy, numeracy, and careers education. Engagement with Early Years STEM does not end when a child returns to their ELC setting. The STEM Coordinator will continue to engage with the class over the school term, bringing a STEM resource kit aligned to a specific area of STEM, and a suite of activities to be completed in the classroom under guidance from practitioners over the course of the term. At home, the child will interact with family, highlighting the experiences and activities and talking about STEM and the type of jobs available. Parents will then be encouraged to attend a family STEM session at the centre and learn more about their child’s STEM journey. Interested, the parent will access the digital portal for learning content to try at home, and to find out about similar programmes offered at locations across Moray. The child, now enthusiastic about STEM, will engage with the STEM centre on a regular basis, at least once per school year until the end of Primary School. Activities and experiences will be varied and age appropriate as they continue through Broad General Education. Supplementary to the STEM centre experience, the child will engage with other STEM programmes delivered through the STEM Learning Centre Network. At least once every three years, the child as part of their school setting will have the opportunity to visit the Environmental Sciences Education Centre at Milbuies, engaging with programmes surrounding learning for sustainability and climate change. The child may also attend this facility with family members, the centre being accessible to the wider community. Enthused by environmental education, the child will continue their learning at their school setting, with education staff trained on the subject matter following CPD sessions offered by the organisation. The child will engage with industry through organised visits to industry locations, including the Manufacturing and Innovation Centre for Moray, and the Digital Health and Care Institution. Visits to other business locations and community organisations will be possible, due to investment in education through the STEM Grant Scheme. As the child enters senior phase and is in pursuit of a STEM career pathway, they will be encouraged to participate in the Young STEM leader Programme, delivering STEM engagements to younger peers and the wider community. Page 119
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Page 108 of 142 The student, equipped with the skills and aspirations to pursue STEM, will apply to study at a local higher institution, ready to access the type of high-quality careers available through Moray Growth Deal investment in the economy. Phase 1 Activity Phase 1 of the Early Years STEM Project will focus on development and delivery of the initiatives core learning programme, as well as implementation of the mobile and outreach offering, and development of the first of the STEM Centre Network hosted at Elgin Public Library. STEM Officer Recruitment (2024-2025) In successfully implementing STEM learning and creating a STEM ecosystem in the Moray area, it is critical to have the support of knowledgeable and enthusiastic staff, committed to changing the perceptions of STEM. Following Full Business Case approval, a STEM Engagement Manager will be recruited who will lead on curriculum development and implementation of the initiatives outreach offering as detailed in the next section. The STEM Engagement Manager will work collaboratively with partners while engaging directly with schools, creating a dynamic and responsive curriculum that meets the needs of Morays education system. Activities to enhance workforce development will be initiated at this stage, the STEM Engagement Manager working with existing STEM Champions within settings and seeking to expand this network throughout project delivery. Prior to launch of the first STEM Centre location and mobile solution, two additional STEM coordinators will be recruited and trained by the STEM Engagement Manager. These posts will work across the Associated School Group (ASG) areas, facilitating STEM engagements at the central facility and satellite sites, and providing outreach activity at Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) and Primary settings. The “STEM office” will support workforce development, delivering CPD training to staff across all ASGs and creating a network of STEM champions from ELC and school settings throughout Moray. The Moray Council will fund revenue requirements, however given the budgeting pressures in today’s climate; this will be a limited resource that can be delivered within the existing revenue budget. Flexible working arrangements will be considered including term time posts, and full time and part time working hours. Delivery options are being considered and include either recruitment of project staff employed directly by the Moray Council, or outsourcing delivery through a Contract for Services. Under either delivery option, contract management will sit with the Moray Council. Page 120
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Page 109 of 142 Educational Programme Development (2024-2025) Key to the successful of this project is the ability to build upon a comprehensive learning programme aligned to the Scotland’s Curriculum for Excellence that offers progression from early years through to broad general education. Early Years STEM will work collaboratively and iteratively with partners and education staff to develop learning content that covers the core curricular areas of Science, Technology and Numeracy while introducing career pathways in the context of Moray’s local economy. The team will adopt an inter-disciplinary learning (IDL) approach that integrates literacy, health & wellbeing, learning for sustainability and careers education. Learning materials will complement existing Moray educational practices, including Moray science and technology progressions currently under development within Moray Council Education. Learning content will include national programmes such as Energy Skills Partnerships (ESP) First Lego League, Digital Health, and Care Innovations Centre’s (DHI) Digi- inventors challenge, Raising Aspirations in Science (RAiSE)’s STEM through Stories, as well as wide range of programmes offered through the Association of Science and Discovery Centres. The Education Programme will offer both specialist content and simple activities that can be easily repeated by education staff in schools and nurseries. Early Years STEM Coordinators will develop the curricular materials with support from partners and an exhibition and interpretation design consultant procured to design and deliver the learning spaces. Information relating to the educational offering, STEM learning centres, mobile solution and partner activity will be included within a digital portal, also developed as part of phase 1 activity. Outreach Programme Development (2024-2025) Phase 1 will also see development and delivery of a central repository of STEM resources, available for early learning and primary settings to borrow for classroom- based STEM activity. This will be developed and delivered in collaboration with UHI Moray and other partners, with each organisation hosting a suite of kits tailored to the needs of the Moray region. Over the last six years, UHI has delivered a STEM outreach programme to primary settings across the Highland Council area, providing materials and training to teachers to build their confidence and knowledge in subjects they may not be familiar with. This included the creation of ‘Lend a Lab’ boxes, which contain themed, age-specific content and lesson plans to support teachers in delivering STEM topics in an engaging way. UHI recently announced a £900,000 funding boost from the offshore wind industry to further develop and sustain this successful initiative in the Highlands and Islands area, with Moray receiving funding for a dedicated Part-Time STEM Coordinator for 3 years and limited resource for equipment and materials. Page 121
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Page 110 of 142 Early Years STEM has sought to collaborate with UHI Moray to further develop and enhance this exciting and rewarding programme. The UHI STEM Coordinator and Early Years STEM team will work collaboratively and iteratively to develop the educational offering in a Moray context, with Growth Deal funding used to purchase additional resources and materials that will extend the reach and quality of engagement in our Moray schools. This work package has been developed in recognition that while one off experiences and events have a part to play in delivering STEM and raising the aspirations of children, they themselves are not sufficient to embed STEM learning as needs be the case. Lend-a-lab will deliver educational experiences and resources that will allow schools and Early Learning and Childcare (ELC) settings to engage with STEM in the classroom environment. It is designed to complement the Curriculum for Excellence and give teachers the tools and training to deliver STEM confidently and flexibly, recognising competing pressures and priorities within the sector. A case study outlining activities and resources delivered as part of UHI Lend a Lab is included in Appendix 6, along with a list of potential resources and materials that may be purchased and held as a central Moray STEM repository. Elgin STEM Centre (2024 – 2025) As part of Phase 1 activity, the first STEM centre to be delivered will be hosted within Morays Central Public Library at Elgin Cooper Park. Current proposals will see renovation of the former drill hall into a Children’s STEM Discovery Zone and Community Learning Hub, as well as redevelopment of key functional areas within the building necessary to host the STEM space. This will be the largest space within the Network and will serve as a focal point for early years STEM education, delivering innovative STEM learning experiences and coordinating STEM activity across the region. The Community Learning Hub will offer a flexible scalable space with core learning equipment suitable for delivery of STEM focused workshops. The STEM Discovery Zone will host a series of interactive exhibitions and experiences, a space where children, educators and families can get hands on with equipment and explore STEM subjects in an integrated and creative way. Case studies of similar environments include The Science Oxford Centre,95 Café create within Dundee Science Centre96, the STEM Discovery Centre in Stevenage97, and the Science Skills Academy Newton Rooms98. The Moray Council Property team have been appointed to progress early-stage design plans, with the final solution agreed in terms of building layout options. As the development progresses through RIBA stage 3, options will be further explored 95 The Science Oxford Centre, https://scienceoxford.com/resources/accessible-resources/virtual-tour/ 96 Dundee Science Centre, https://www.dundeesciencecentre.org.uk/visit/cafe-create/ 97 STEM Discovery Centre, https://stemdiscoverycentre.co.uk/ 98 Science Skills Academy, https://www.scienceskillsacademy.co.uk/ Page 122
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Page 111 of 142 relating to building fabric and M&E upgrades, as detailed in the RIBA 2 feasibility report included in Appendix 8. A specialist exhibition and interpretation contractor has now been appointed to progress interior design and fit out of the STEM learning space. Unusual Projects in collaboration with Glasgow Science Centre, will work with the Moray Council Property and Project Teams to design the space, the contract continuing through to fabrication and installation subject to satisfactory performance and funding approval. Scope of works include all exhibition, furniture, and storage solutions, visual design and branding and supplementary learning materials, including a range of portable materials that will be delivered as part of the mobile and outreach offering. Interpretation planning commenced in early 2024, the appointed contractor supporting in stakeholder engagement activities and implementing a co-design process. A stage 2 cost plan is now complete and included in Appendix 9. Construction is anticipated to begin in January 2025, with preparatory works scheduled in November 2024, including redeployment of excess book stock, removal of storage racks, and re-deployment of library staff to a temporary working location within the building. Mobile Solution Implementation (2025) A distinct feature of this Early Years STEM initiative is to address rurality as a barrier to participation. Early Years STEM draws inspiration from successful programmes such as Glasgow Science Centres Powering the Future on Tour, Cambridge Science Centre’s Pop-up Science, and the Science Skills Academy’s Pop-up Newton Room, and will develop a mobile solution that parallels and extends the STEM Learning Centre into all Associated School Groups (ASG)s in Moray. A range of mobile facilities and equipment, including portable exhibits, will be developed that can be transported to and used in any suitable venue including schools, community halls, and business premises, throughout Moray. This will be achieved through the purchase of a medium sized electrical vehicle that can be driven using a standard UK driving license. To generate excitement and showcase the learning offer, the vehicle will have specialist branding and fit out. Phase 2 Activity Phase 2 will see expansion of the STEM Centre and Learning Networks, with satellite sites developed in Forres and Buckie. Phase 2 will also see development of a unique Environmental Sciences STEM Learning Centre. Environmental Sciences STEM Learning Centre (2026-2027) This work package will see the creation of an Environmental Sciences STEM Learning Centre, developed, and delivered in partnership with a Local Environmental Charity. Wild Things are uniquely positioned to run a STEM Hub of this nature, due to their commitment as a charitable organisation to deliver environmental learning, experience Page 123
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Page 112 of 142 working within Moray’s education network, and ability to sustain their organisation through access to ongoing external funding sources. The charity also delivers the added advantage of owning a fleet of buses that can be used to transport children from their settings to the centre. The proposal is to develop a vacant plot on Moray Council owned Common Good Land at Milbuies Country Park into an Environmental Sciences STEM Learning Centre. Moray Growth Deal funding will be used to develop the core infrastructure as depicted in figure 16, including education and parking facilities, green energy solutions, green infrastructure, and core learning equipment. The delivery mechanism for this development is still being explored, however it is anticipated that the site will be leased to and managed by Wild Things. Figure 16 Wild Things Education Centre at Milbuies In line with the Moray Councils Climate Change Strategy and outcomes relating to learning for sustainability, activities that will be undertaken on the land include leading groups of early years, primary age, teenagers and adults in environmental exploration, and conservation. The aim of expanding their knowledge of environmental and biological sciences, furthering their appreciation for and care of the nature world, and inspiring young people to consider the wide-ranging career opportunities in the growing sector of environmental sciences. This innovative partnership with Wild Things will deliver against Early Years STEM targets in relation to STEM engagements, whilst also delivering Wild Things own environmental education activities in line with their charitable mission, which is to create mutually beneficial relationships between individuals, communities, and the natural world. The full scope of proposal is included in Appendix 11. The preferred site at Milbuies is owned by the Elgin Common Good and acquisition of the site for development must follow legal processes. According to the Community Empowerment Act, where land is classified as Common Good, a public consultation exercise is required where a disposal or change of land use is proposed. As the land Page 124
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Page 113 of 142 is also classified as inalienable, in addition to the public consultation, court authority will also be required for a disposal. A long-term lease as proposed will fall within the definition of a disposal. Advice from the Moray Council Estates and Legal Teams is this process can be relatively straightforward if unopposed, however legal fees and timeframes must be considered. Development of the site is planned for 2026, giving sufficient time to progress through legal processes to acquire the site (Estates advise 3-4 months for court consent in additional to public consultation and internal approvals.) Budget for legal fees has been included in the financial case and pitched deliberately high to account for increased financial risk. Forres STEM Centre (2027-2028) Early Years STEM is in active discussion with The Leanchoil Trust to host a dedicated STEM centre within the renovated Leanchoil Hospital in Forres99. The Trust is embarking on an ambitious Project to transform a unique listed building and surrounding landscape into a community focused Health and Wellbeing Centre. The centre will offer activities and services to support wellbeing, social engagement, volunteering, employment, and learning, bringing enduring benefit to the people of Forres and its rural communities. It is understood the Erskine Veterans Retirement Centre will also be located within the building, creating significant opportunity for community STEM participation and inter-generational learning. The vision for this STEM space is aligned to the Elgin Facility, with the creation of an early year’s interactive learning space and community learning hub. This will be a shared resource, with the Moray Council STEM Team delivering programmes to the target audience, and the Trust accessing facilities for the benefit of the wider Forres Community. This facility will have a strong emphasis on health and wellbeing, outdoor education, and digital technology, due to nature of the facility, location within a woodland setting and opportunity to link with the Digital Health and Care Innovation Project. The possibility of incorporating an immersive sensory zone will also be explored, as this will provide high quality learning experiences for early year’s children and those with Additional Support Needs (ASN). Development of this centre is aligned with renovation plans for the Leanchoil Trust; with curriculum delivery anticipated in late 2027. Delivery arrangements for this development are still being explored however it is anticipated that MGD funding will be used to develop allocated space within the building and the space leased to Moray Council under a long-term leasing arrangement at nominal rates. 99 The Leanchoil Trust https://www.leanchoiltrust.org/the-plans/ Page 125
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Page 114 of 142 Buckie STEM Centre (2028-2029) Planning for the Buckie facility is still under development however a preferred location has been identified. The Community Hall above Buckie Library is a vacant council owned facility, and proposals will see this space transformed into an active learning environment that is aligned with the vision for the Forres and Elgin facilities. Development of the Buckie facility is anticipated to begin in 2028, therefore site options will continue to be identified and reviewed throughout the project. For this FBC, cost estimates and benefits appraisals will be progressed on the assumption of Buckie Community Town Hall as the preferred site. Phase 3 Activity Phase 3 will focus on the expansion of the STEM Learning Network to businesses, community groups and partners Moray wide, as well as ongoing purchase of STEM materials and resources across the STEM centre infrastructure. Ongoing Equipment Purchase There will be a requirement to update and refresh equipment periodically, to ensure experiences remain inspiring and relevant to audiences. Budget will therefore be allocated to update equipment throughout the latter project phase. STEM Grant Scheme Early Years STEM seeks to create a STEM Ecosystem in the Moray area, through the creation of a STEM Network involving employers, higher education institutions, partner providers, museums, and community volunteers. A portion of Moray Growth Deal funding will be ring fenced to support specific activity relating to these partnerships. This will be in the form of an annual budget allowance that can delivered in the form of capital grants and provision of specialist equipment to support a diverse range of projects and initiatives throughout Moray. Working with partners such as Developing the Young Workforce, Moray College UHI and the private sector, employers will be engaged to host STEM activities and events at industry sites to allow young people to see for themselves STEM activity being brought to life, generate excitement, and interest in STEM and embed knowledge of the opportunities that are possible in Moray. Funding will also support partnership activity with other Moray Growth Deal Projects, such as MAATIC, MICM, DHI and Cultural Quarter, through the purchase of facilities and learning equipment and delivery of specific events. Community organisations and groups will have the opportunity to apply for funding to support a wide variety of STEM related projects and initiatives, such as makerspaces, Lego clubs, after school STEM clubs. Schools can apply for funding to purchase STEM materials that will enable delivery of STEM clubs and facilitate parental engagement. An outline criteria for the STEM Grant Scheme is included in Appendix 13. Page 126
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Page 115 of 142 Phase 1 Procurement Activity All procurement to date has been carried out in line with the overall procurement strategy and in line with Moray Councils procurement regulations. A summary of anticipated Phase 1 procurement activity is as follows: • The Moray Council Property Team have been appointed to provide architectural and design services and will project manage the development at Elgin Library throughout construction. The Moray Councils internal design team includes architects, structural engineers, and quantity surveyors. External support will be sought as required and appointed through approved Moray Council Frameworks • A construction contractor will be appointed at RIBA stage 4 and appointed either through competitive tender or approved Moray Council Frameworks. This will be dependent on market conditions and availability of suppliers. • A specialist exhibition and interpretation contractor has now been appointed to progress interior design and fit out of the STEM learning space. Unusual Projects in collaboration with Glasgow Science Centre, will work with the Moray Council Property and Project Teams to design the space, the contract continuing through to fabrication and installation subject to satisfactory performance and funding approval. Scope of works include all exhibition, furniture, and storage solutions, visual design and branding and supplementary learning materials, including a range of portable materials that will be delivered as part of the mobile and outreach offering. • Purchase of a medium sized electric van will be achieved via Moray Council procurement frameworks. A suitable vehicle has been identified and purchasing will commence following early interpretation planning, ensuring the vehicle is fit for purpose to transport specialist STEM equipment. • Purchase of IT equipment, STEM resources and furniture items not covered under the exhibition contract will be through approved Moray Council Frameworks. • Any additional consultancy works not specified above (performance and evaluation, brand development, legal support etc) will be procured with adherence to Moray Council Procurement Processes. Phase 2-3 Procurement Activity A summary of anticipated Phase 2 and 3 procurement activity is as follows: • Legal consultants will be engaged following FBC approval to support activity relating to Phase 2 and 3 developments. Support relating to subsidy compliance, development of partnership agreements and site acquisition considerations will be sought. Page 127
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Page 116 of 142 • A feasibility study assessing the viability of Milbuies will be commissioned following FBC approval. This work will likely include early conceptual design work to support public consultation. • Following public consultation and land acquisition, a landscape architect will be appointed to support planning for the Milbuies development. Appointment will be made through competitive tender and as per Moray Council processes. • Procurement activity for Forres and Buckie locations is yet to be determined. Subsidy Control Following guidance as set out in the Subsidy Control Act 2022, it was determined that none of the investments proposed as part of Phase 1 activity constitutes a subsidy, as there would be no transfer of funds or economic advantage to any party out with the Moray Council. Phase 2 and 3 activities will require a detailed assessment and guidance from external legal advisors, as some activity may have implications relating to subsidy control. Guidance will be sought as planning for these phases develops and included in an annex submission. Potential for Risk Transfer The general principle is that risks should be passed to ‘the party best able to manage them’, subject to value for money. This section provides an assessment of how the associated risks might be apportioned. Risk Category Potential allocation Public Private Shared 1. Design risk ✓ ✓ 2. Construction and development risk ✓ 3. Transition and implementation risk ✓ 4. Availability and performance risk ✓ 5. Operating risk ✓ 6. Variability of revenue risks ✓ 7. Termination risks ✓ 8. Technology and obsolescence risks ✓ 9. Control risks ✓ 10. Residual value risks ✓ 11. Financing risks ✓ 12. Legislative risks ✓ 13. Other project risks ✓ Page 128
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Page 117 of 142 Proposed Charging Mechanisms • Payment for all design, construction and development contracts will be made by the Moray Council according to a pre-agreed payment schedule. • Financial contributions granted by the Early Years STEM Project to external parties will be controlled by legal agreements and grant funding agreements setting out the terms and conditions of the funding. • Operational costs associated with Moray Council facilities hosted at partner locations will be covered under a leasing agreement and paid by the Moray Council to the organisation on a pre-agreed payment schedule. • Should service delivery be achieved through an outsourced Contract for Services, payment to the service contractor would be made according to a pre- agreed schedule as negotiated with the successful tenderer. Proposed Contract Lengths It is anticipated that contracts for the required capital works and services is as follows: • The Moray Council Property Team are progressing detailed design and planning services for phase 1 activity and will support project management of capital works through to delivery. Design contracts are anticipated to span 12- 24 months. • Design contracts for subsequent developments will be progressed by the Moray Council or through competitive tender. 9–24-month design contracts and 12– 36-month design and build contracts will be considered. • Specialist exhibition contractors will be appointed to undertake internal fit out of spaces under a design and build contract. 12–24-month contracts will be considered. • Where renovation of partner sites is required for phase 2 activity, development agreements will be put in place. • Partnership activity will be managed through Memorandums of Understanding and Legal Agreements • Should service delivery be achieved through an outsourced Contract for Services, contract length will be for an initial term of 3-5 years, with option to extend. Proposed Key Contractual Clauses These are as follows: • the duration of the contract and any break clauses. • the service provider’s and procuring authority’s respective roles and responsibilities. • the payment – or charging – mechanism, including prices, tariffs, incentive payments. • detailed community benefit commitments • change control (for new requirements and updated services) • the organisation’s remedies in the event of failure on the part of the service provider to deliver the contracted services – on time, to specification and price. Page 129
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Page 118 of 142 • the treatment of intellectual property rights. • compliance with appropriate regulations. • the operational and contract administration elements of the terms and conditions of service. • arrangements for the resolution of disputes and disagreements between the parties. • the agreed allocation of risk. All contracts to take cognisance of the requirements of the Equality Act 2010 (Specific Duties) (Scotland) Regulations 2012 with specific equality outcomes regarding the gender pay gap / equal pay / occupational segregation. All construction work to follow the Carbon Trust Buildings Fabric Guide to ensure that facilities contribute to Net Zero Carbon Emissions 2050 target. A review of each contract should be carried out post award – normally this would be around six months from contract start date. This review will consider: • Relationship with supplier • Order process • Payment process • Standard of initial contract delivery Personnel Implications It is anticipated that the TUPE – Transfer of Undertakings (Protection of Employment) Regulations 1981 – will not apply to this investment as outlined above. Page 130
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Page 119 of 142 5. The Financial Case Impact on the organisations income and expenditure acount The Early Years STEM project has a funding requirement of £6.4 million over 10 financial years and includes £4.8 million of capital funding and £1.6 million of revenue funding. Funding will be provided by the Moray Council and Scottish Government, the Moray Council meeting all revenue costs and £1.3 million of capital costs, and the Scottish Government providing £3.5 million of capital funding. Capital expenditure includes acquisition, renovation, and fit out of sites, as well as all professional fees associated with the developments. An allowance has also been made for the purchase and fit out of a vehicle, as well as supplementary learning resources for delivery of the projects core learning programme. Materials will be purchased over the life of the project to allow delivery of a dynamic and responsive curriculum and will be selected in consultation with stakeholders. Equipment will be rotated across STEM centres and ASGs to reduce waste and maximise usage. Any equipment due to be replaced will be recycled or donated to schools / community groups. A list of possible materials is included in Appendix 6 to demonstrate the nature of spend. A portion of capital budget has been ring fenced to support partnership activity. Financial contributions will be made from the Moray Council to community and private organisations to enable delivery of STEM programmes across Moray. Contributions will be controlled by grant funding agreements setting out the terms and conditions of the funding. Pricing in the capital case is expressed in nominal terms. Revenue expenditure includes all staffing and operational costs associated with programme delivery, as well as rental and utilities costs for the Moray Council led sites at Elgin, Buckie and Forres, and operational costs for the mobile solution. As each site will be hosted within a Moray Council service or partner organisation, rental costs are minimal and include a nominal annual contribution to operational costs. A 3% inflation rate has been applied to all revenue costs. The proposed outdoor development at Milbuies will be leased and managed by Wild Things and controlled through a service agreement. The partner organisation will be responsible for all staffing and operational costs associated with the site. The anticipated financial profile for the project over the MGD funding period is set out below. Costs are exlusive of VAT. Page 131
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Page 120 of 142 £ 23/24 24/25 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 30/31 31/32 32/33 33/34 Total Capital Spend (Scottish Govt and Moray Council) Professional Fees Economic and Social Impact Assessment £10,855 £11,404 £20,000 £42,259 Performance Monitoring & Evaluation £20,000 £20,000 £40,000 Legal Fees £10,000 £10,000 £10,000 £30,000 £10,855 £11,404 £10,000 £30,000 £10,000 £20,000 £0 £0 £0 £20,000 £0 £112,259 Phase 1 Elgin Discovery Centre & Coordinating Hub Development Fees £35,638 £35,853 £40,022 £20,581 £132,094 Construction Costs (Base Building) £596,750 £448,897 £1,045,647 Exhibition Design & Interpretation £20,000 £56,250 £76,250 Exhibition & Interior Fit Out Costs £181,751 £241,999 £423,750 Supplementary Equipment Costs £60,000 £60,000 Total £55,638 £92,103 £818,523 £771,477 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £1,737,741 Phase 1 Mobile Solution & Outreach Vehicle Purchase & Wrapping £75,000 £75,000 Mobile Equipment £40,000 £40,000 STEM Resource Bank Equipment Purchase £20,000 £50,000 £65,000 £135,000 £0 £20,000 £50,000 £180,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £250,000 Phase 2 Outdoor Development Fees £10,000 £20,000 £20,000 £20,000 £70,000 Capital Costs £630,000 £630,000 £0 £10,000 £20,000 £20,000 £650,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £700,000 Phase 2 Forres Development Fees £50,000 £50,000 Renovation Costs £200,000 £250,000 £450,000 Fit Out & Equipment Costs £200,000 £200,000 £0 £0 £0 £250,000 £450,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £700,000 Phase 2 Buckie Development Fees £50,000 £50,000 Renovation Costs £100,000 £350,000 £450,000 Fit Out & Equipment Costs £200,000 £200,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £150,000 £550,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £700,000 Phase 3 - Network Expansion Ongoing Equipment Costs £100,000 £100,000 £100,000 £300,000 STEM Grant Scheme £100,000 £100,000 £100,000 £300,000 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £200,000 £200,000 £200,000 £0 £0 £600,000 Total Capital Cost £66,493 £133,507 £898,523 £1,001,477 £910,000 £620,000 £550,000 £200,000 £200,000 £220,000 £0 £0 £4,800,000 Capital Funding Scottish Government £693,585 £752,315 £692,510 £471,820 £418,550 £152,000 £152,000 £167,220 £0 £0 £3,500,000 Moray Council £66,493 £133,507 £204,938 £249,162 £217,490 £148,180 £131,450 £48,000 £48,000 £52,780 £0 £0 £1,300,000 Total £66,493 £133,507 £898,523 £1,001,477 £910,000 £620,000 £550,000 £200,000 £200,000 £220,000 £0 £0 £4,800,000 Phase 2 Phase 3FBC Phase 1 Spend at Risk Page 132
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Page 121 of 142 Figure 17 Early Years STEM Financial Profile £ 22/23 23/24 24/25 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30 30/31 31/32 32/33 33/34 Total Revenue Spend EY STEM Core Programme Project Manager £53,595 £71,338 £12,922 £137,855 STEM Programme Development £18,354 £18,354 STEM Engagement Manager (0.7 FTE) £11,448 £47,165 £48,580 £50,037 £51,538 £53,085 £54,677 £56,317 £58,007 £59,747 £490,602 STEM Engagement Officer (1.4 FTE) £56,094 £57,776 £59,509 £61,295 £63,133 £65,027 £66,978 £68,988 £71,057 £569,858 Branding & Marketing £7,000 £7,000 Insurances £2,000 £2,060 £2,122 £2,185 £2,251 £2,319 £2,388 £2,460 £2,534 £2,610 £22,928 Mobile Solution Running Costs £5,150 £5,305 £5,464 £5,628 £5,796 £5,970 £6,149 £6,334 £6,524 £52,319 Total £53,595 £71,338 £12,922 £38,802 £110,469 £113,782 £117,196 £120,712 £124,333 £128,063 £131,905 £135,862 £139,938 £1,298,916 Elgin Centre Rental & Utilties £9,270 £9,548 £9,835 £10,130 £10,433 £10,746 £11,069 £11,401 £11,743 £94,175 Consumables £5,000 £5,150 £5,305 £5,464 £5,628 £5,796 £5,970 £6,149 £6,334 £6,524 £57,319 Total £0 £0 £0 £5,000 £14,420 £14,853 £15,298 £15,757 £16,230 £16,717 £17,218 £17,735 £18,267 £151,494 Forres Centre Rental & Utilties £4,917 £5,065 £5,216 £5,373 £5,534 £5,700 £5,871 £37,676 Consumables £5,464 £5,628 £5,797 £5,971 £6,150 £6,334 £6,524 £41,868 Total £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £10,381 £10,692 £11,013 £11,344 £11,684 £12,034 £12,395 £79,544 Buckie Centre Rental & Utilties £5,065 £5,217 £5,373 £5,535 £5,701 £5,872 £32,762 Consumables £5,628 £5,797 £5,971 £6,150 £6,334 £6,524 £36,404 Total £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £10,693 £11,014 £11,344 £11,685 £12,035 £12,396 £69,167 Total Revenue Costs £53,595 £71,338 £12,922 £43,802 £124,889 £128,635 £142,875 £157,854 £162,590 £167,467 £172,491 £177,666 £182,996 £1,599,121 Revenue Funding Moray Council £53,595 £71,338 £12,922 £43,802 £124,889 £128,635 £142,875 £157,854 £162,590 £167,467 £172,491 £177,666 £182,996 £1,599,121 Total £53,595 £71,338 £12,922 £43,802 £124,889 £128,635 £142,875 £157,854 £162,590 £167,467 £172,491 £177,666 £182,996 £1,599,121 FBC Spend at Risk Page 133
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Page 122 of 142 Assumptions Phase 1 Elgin STEM Centre The detailed design (to RIBA stage 4) of the first STEM centre location is being undertaken from Q4 2023/24 to Q2 2024/25. Proposals have been developed to RIBA Stage 2 for the base building design and included in Appendix 8 in the RIBA Stage 2 feasibility report and cost plan. Included in the report are a range of options relating to building fabric upgrades including M&E, structural and heating system upgrades. These will be further explored as planning progresses through RIBA 3. Renovation costs and associated property design fees for option 1B have been included in the financial profile however alternative options will be explored should costs exceed allocated budget. A project contingency of 15% has been included as Elgin Library is a known Moray Council building undergoing light renovation and considered a low-risk development. Fit out of the STEM centre including exhibition, furniture, audiovisual and associated learning equipment will be progressed by an exhibition and interpretation contractor. The conceptual manual is included in appendix 10 as well as design fees and indicative costs provided at tender stage. A contribution of £30/sqm per annum has been agreed between the project team and the libraries service manager to cover rental and utilities. An allowance for consumables has also been included. A 3% inflation rate has been applied to all revenue costs. Mobile Solution & Outreach The financial profile includes an allowance to purchase a medium sized electric van and fit out with specialist branding and storage. Cost estimates have been provided by Moray Council fleet services and vehicle purchase will be through Moray Council procurement frameworks. An allowance has also been included to purchase mobile furniture and ICT equipment, and to develop a suite of learning materials themed around the Scottish Curriculum for Excellence as part of the projects outreach model. Equipment will be selected in consultation with stakeholders throughout project delivery to ensure a dynamic and responsive curriculum. An equipment list of potential resources is included in Appendix 6. Resources will be purchased through Moray Council procurement frameworks. Phase 2 Outdoor Environmental Education Centre Planning for the phase 2 outdoor facility is still under development, with a preferred site taken forward for appraisal. Development costs have been assumed to be in the region of £700k for the core infrastructure including, parking, structures, and land development costs. The proposal is for the site to be leased to Wild Things at peppercorn rates and managed through a service agreement. Wild Things will cover all operational costs including staffing and utilities. Wild Things as a charitable Page 134
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Page 123 of 142 organisation will seek to leverage match funding through external funding sources to cover any funding gaps. Should Wild Things fail to secure the necessary match funding, alternative suppliers will be sought to lease the site and deliver benefits. This will be managed through the change control process and any impact on benefits quantified and communicated to governments. Forres STEM Centre Planning for the phase 2 Forres facility is still under development, with a preferred site taken forward for appraisal at Leanchoil. The Moray Council will fund renovation costs through direct contribution to the Leanchoil Trust. The Leanchoil Trust design team estimates £450,000 of renovation costs based on a rate of £3000/sqm for 150sqm of allocated space within the building. Equipment and fit costs of £200,000 have also been assumed. The Leanchoil Trust will cover all building management fees, cleaning, and utilities costs, with the Moray Council providing a nominal contribution to these costs of £30/sqm per annum under a rental agreement. A 3% inflation rate has been applied to all revenue costs. Buckie STEM Centre Planning for the phase 2 Buckie facility is still under development, with a preferred site taken forward for appraisal at Buckie Library. £450,000 renovation costs have been assumed based on a rate of £3000/sqm for 150 sqm of allocated space within the building. Equipment and fit costs of £200,000 have also been assumed. A contribution of £30/sqm per annum has been agreed between the project team and the libraries service manager to cover rental and utilities. An allowance for consumables has also been included. A 3% inflation allowance has been applied to all revenue costs. Professional Fees Professional fees include an allowance for legal work and consultancy support including an economic impact assessment at FBC stage and Phase 2 annexe submission, and an interim and post project evaluation. Phase 3 STEM Grant Scheme Financial contributions will be made from the Moray Council to external parties under grant funding conditions and partnership agreements. Staffing Costs Staffing costs are for a 0.7 FTE STEM Engagement Manager post at grade 11 and 1.4 FTE STEM Coordinator posts at grade 7. Staff grades are estimated based on the Page 135
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Page 124 of 142 Highland Council grading scales for the Science Skills Academy STEM Programme and have been pitched deliberately high. A wage inflation of 3% has been applied based on 2024/25 figures. Overall Affordability The financial profile presented in this business case demonstrates the project can be sustained within allocated budget over the 10-year funding period. The profile does not include private and commercial sector support for which there is has been significant interest. This includes commercial hire of spaces, sponsorship of events, income from events, and in-kind contributions from employers. Income generated from this activity will support operational elements and will be pursued where possible once the project moves into operation. The ongoing financial sustainability of the project after the MGD funding period will be evaluated throughout delivery and at project closure. It is anticipated that external income streams will support project delivery however the Moray Council as lead delivery partner will be responsible for any shortfalls in funding. Staffing structures will also be reviewed at the end of the funding period, as delivery partners and members of the STEM learning network take a more active involvement in project delivery. Page 136
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Page 125 of 142 6. The Management Case Programme Management Arrangements The project is an integral part of the Moray Growth Deal programme which comprimises a portfolio of projects for delivery of economic growth to the Moray region. The programme governance arrangements are as follows: Figure 18 Moray Growth Deal Governance Structure Page 137
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Page 126 of 142 Project management Arrangements Project Reporting Structure The Early Years STEM Project Board has been formed to oversee project governance arrangements and is made up of key representatives from the Moray Council and partner organisations. The Early Years STEM Project Board will ultimately oversee the project and the approval of key stages of development. The project will be managed in accordance with PRINCE 2 methodology. The project board usually meets bi-monthly to oversee project activity. Meetings were more frequent in the time leading up to the preparation of the FBC. Management of risks, issues and change management will be in line with Moray Council Governance policy. Additional steering groups will be formed to progress planning for the individual workstreams. Page 138
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Page 127 of 142 The reporting organisation and the reporting structure for the project is as follows. Figure 19 Project Reporting Structure Page 139
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Page 128 of 142 Operational Structure The project will be delivered by a multi-agency collaboration that includes the Moray Council, partner providers, and volunteers from industry and the wider community. A team of STEM coordinators will be employed to oversee programme delivery, including delivery of engagements at the Moray Council led sites and management of the STEM learning network. Delivery options are being considered and include either recruitment of project staff employed directly by the Moray Council, or outsourcing delivery through a Contract for Services. Under either delivery option, contract management will sit with the Moray Council. Activity will be supported by key delivery partners including the Leanchoil Trust, UHI Moray, Moray Council Libraries & Learning Centre Team and other representatives from the STEM Strategy Group. Wild Things will have direct responsibility for management and delivery of the Outdoor Environmental Education Centre. Page 140
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Page 129 of 142 The operational structure is as follows: Figure 20 Operational Structure Page 141
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Page 130 of 142 Roles and Responsibilities Name Role Responsibilities Project Delivery Team Hazel Sly Early Years Service Manager & Project SRO Responsible for delivery of the Early Years STEM project; responsible for ensuring project satisfies requirements of MGD. Sarah Barnes Early Years STEM Project Manager Project management lead responsible for overseeing project management function, FBC development, and implementation of all project workstreams. New Post STEM Learning and Engagement Manager Responsible for service delivery to primary users, curriculum development, coordination of events, stakeholder management, management of STEM Coordinators. New Post STEM Coordinator Facilitation of STEM engagements across all Moray Council sites and programmes. New Post STEM Coordinator Facilitation of STEM engagements across all Moray Council sites and programmes. Page 142
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Page 131 of 142 Other Stakeholders involves in development and delivery of the project are as follows: Team Role Responsibilities Early Years STEM Project Board Moray Council University of Highlands and Islands UHI Moray Education Scotland SSERC Developing the Young Workforce Skills Development Scotland National Health Service Aberdeen Science Centre Gordon and MacPhail Boeing Provide overall strategic direction, governance, and approval of key stages of project development. Multi-Disciplinary Design Team Design and Construction Manager Principal Architect Quantity Surveyor Structural Engineer Mechanical Engineer Electrical Engineer CDM Advisers Exhibition Project Manager Responsible for capital development of sites. Design, construction, handover, and project management support. Implementation Groups Early Years Service Manager Early Years STEM Project Manager Property Asset Manager ICT Infrastructure Manager Senior Accountant Procurement Officer Sport and Culture Service Manager Wild Things Leanchoil Trust Representatives from key services and organisations involved in the overall strategy, development, and implementation of each individual workstream. Engagement Group Representatives from key user groups including education staff, young people, wider community. Ongoing consultation with users. Page 143
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Page 132 of 142 Project Plan Summary (Full Plan in Appendix 3) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OBC Project Review Site Identification FBC Phase 1 (Outreach Implementation) Phase 1 (Outreach Delivery) Phase 1 (Mobile Implementation) Phase 1 (Mobile Delivery) Phase 1 (Elgin Implementation) Phase 1 (Elgin Delivery) Phase 2 (Outdoor Implementation) Phase 2 (Outdoor Delivery) Phase 2 (Forres Implementation) Phase 2 (Forres Delivery) Phase 2 (Buckie Implementation) Phase 2 (Buckie Delivery) Phase 3 (Network Expansion) Performance and Evaluation FBC Approval 2033/ 34 27/2822/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 28/29 29/30 2030/ 31 2031/ 32 2032/ 33 Page 144
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Page 133 of 142 Use of Specialist Advisors Special advisers have been used in a timely and cost-effective manner in accordance with the Treasury Guidance. Specialist Area Adviser Subject Matter Experts ▪ Lorraine Paisey, Chief Financial Officer, Moray Council ▪ Diane Beattie (until Jan 2024), Janis Hepburn (Jan 2024 onwards) Payments Manager, Moray Council ▪ Don Toonen, Equal Opportunities Officer, Moray Council ▪ Aileen Scott, Legal Services Manager, Moray Council ▪ Moray Macleod, Design and Construction Manager, Moray Council ▪ Ross Mawhinney, Economic Consultant, Ekosgen ▪ Ian Menzies, Education Scotland ▪ Aileen Hamilton, SSERC Suppliers ▪ Kim Slater, Sports and Culture Manager, Moray Council ▪ Neil Strachan, Property Asset Manager, Moray Council Users ▪ Hazel Sly, Early Years Service Manager, Moray Council ▪ Samantha Bright, Head of STEM Curriculum UHI Moray ▪ Jolene Young, School Coordinator, DYW Moray ▪ Kristen Keedwell, Depute Head Teacher, Moray Council ▪ Abby Martin, Early Years Teacher, Moray Council Page 145
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Page 134 of 142 Outline arrangements for risks issues and change management. The strategy, framework, and plan for dealing with change and associated contract management is contained in the Council`s Project Governance Policy: http://smi.moray.gov.uk/MPG/01%20Governance%20and%20Templates/PMO%20Guide%2 0to%20Project%20Risk,%20Issue,%20Change%20and%20Lessons%20Learned.docx If specific sites or delivery partners identified within Phase 2 activity change, the change control process will take account of impact on project outputs, outcomes and benefit realisation. Outline arrangements risk management. The strategy, framework, and plan for dealing with the management of risk is detailed at 6.4 above. The project risk register is attached at Appendix 5. Outline arrangements for Benefits Realisation The strategy, framework, and plan for dealing with the management and delivery of benefits is detailed here: http://smi.moray.gov.uk/MPG/01%20Governance%20and%20Templates/Benefits%20Manag ement%20Guidance.docx A framework for the Moray Growth Deal`s (MGD) Benefits Realisation and Monitoring Plan has been developed. This framework looks at how different targets from across all MGD projects will combine to achieve specific programme level outcomes and is structured by inclusive growth indicators. The MGD Governance Board will focus on programme level benefits bi-annually, May and November. A programme benefits realisation and monitoring plan is maintained and can be accessed here: Programme Benefits Realisation Plan Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements The project will measure performance against the six investment objectives as follows: Investment Objective 1 – To increase the availability of STEM opportunities for younger people, through the creation of experiential STEM learning hubs delivering upwards of 9000 engagements per annum by 2032. • The project aims to deliver 5 experiential STEM learning hubs (4 fixed: 1 mobile). The project team will track completion and report accordingly in the benefits monitoring plan. Page 146
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Page 135 of 142 • Each facility will track the number of students attending any given year. Qualitative data will be obtained through learner feedback forms and annual surveys. Investment Objective 2 - To increase participation and attainment in STEM subjects at secondary level by 8%, thereby encouraging uptake at further and higher education and ultimately increasing the STEM skills level in Moray by 2042. • Attainment data is published annually by the Scottish Qualifications Authority and reported in the Moray Councils Public Performance Report. Education officers will record data annually to monitor trends. • KPIs include: o Short term: 5% increase in Achievement of a Level (ACEL) in numeracy at P1, P4, P7 combined. o Long term: 8% increase in students attaining A-C level qualifications in STEM Subjects. Investment Objective 3 - To ensure there is equality of opportunity in STEM education across Moray, ensuring all students aged 3-8 are engaged with the curriculum at least once per annum no matter their location, and increasing female participation in STEM subjects at secondary level by 10% by 2042. • The number of females choosing STEM subjects at National 5 and Higher Level will be monitored and recorded annually. Benefit beings to be realised in year 2034. Education officers will monitor data and report to SG. • In 2023 there was 5800 students enrolled in Moray schools in the target age group (age 3-8). STEM coordinators will track engagements and ensure each class in target age group is engaged once per annum. Investment Objective 4 – To increase the skills level of early year’s practitioners and primary teachers in the delivery of STEM disciplines, with an increase of 32 STEM champions in settings by 2032. • There are currently 14 ELC STEM Champions and 14 Primary STEM Champions in Moray. Settings will be engaged to nominate a STEM Champion to participate in training sessions covering the core areas of the STEM curriculum. • A minimum of 10 training session to be offered per annum and participation will be tracked by STEM coordinators. Investment Objective 5 – To strengthen science capital within communities through the provision of 10 public engagement events per annum, thereby encouraging parental engagement, inter-generational learning, and raising the awareness of STEM related careers by 2032. • STEM Coordinators will market and deliver at least 10 public engagement session per annum. Number of engagements will be tracked and qualitative surveys used to track performance and impact. Investment Objective 6 – To develop new forms of delivery through multi- agency collaboration and inter-disciplinary working, engaging 400 students Page 147
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Page 136 of 142 aged 3-12 in partner led programmes and events, and increasing the number of industry and community STEM Ambassadors in Moray by 50% by 2032. • The STEM Moray Steering Group will meet once per term to plan events, ensuring older age groups are engaged. Employer, partner and student participation to be tracked and reported annually. • SSERC oversee the STEM Ambassador network in Moray and participate in the STEM Moray Steering Group and STEM Project Board. EY STEM and partners will engage employers and community champions to sign up to the portal. Number of engagements will be tracked and reported by SSERC. Benefits will be monitored throughout the life of the project and tracked as per the benefits monitoring plan in Figure Short term benefits will be tracked annually and reported in an interim evaluation report in year 2028 and in a post project report in 2032. Long term benefits (only realised after project closes) will be tracked by Education Officers. An interim and final project evaluation will be commissioned using external consultancy support. Page 148
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Page 137 of 142 ID Inclusive Growth Indicator the benefit relates to Project the benefit relates to Benefit to be realised Baseline (2023) Project End State Target Measurement Benefit owner Responsible officer Data Set Reporting periods Project Timing Prod.BR.1 Productivity EY STEM Increased alignment of workforce skills with business requirements Qualitative measure Qualitative measure Feedback from local employers through DYW and SDS channels Reported at Year 10, 15, 20 31/03/2044 Hazel Sly Education Officer Prod.BR.2 Productivity EY STEM Increased inward investment to Moray. No target assigned No target assigned Quantify financial and in- kind support from businesses and funders Annually 31/03/2044 Hazel Sly Education Officer Prod.BR.3 Productivity EY STEM Increased GVA 0 £1.5 million Actual GVA added calculated by reference figures included in Full Business Case. GVA calculated at year 10, 15, 20. 31/03/2044 Hazel Sly Economic Analyst Prod.BR.5 Productivity EY STEM Increased networking and connections between businesses, communities and the education sector 0 10 multi-agency STEM events held annually STEM Moray Steering Group to oversee collaborative and track engagements Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.1 People EY STEM Increase in numeracy attainment in early years and primary 75% at P1, P4, P7 combined 80% P1, P4, P7 combined Data published annually in public performance report Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.2 People EY STEM Increase in attainment of STEM subjects at national 5 and higher 1645 Qualifications A-C Level in STEM Subjects 1777 Qualifications A-C level in STEM Subjects (8% increase) SQA Attainment Statistics published annually. Reported at Year 10, 15, 20 31/03/2044 Hazel Sly Education Officer Page 149
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Page 138 of 142 Peop.BR.3 People EY STEM Increase in positive leaver destinations of young people. 33% Entering Higher Education 36% Entering Higher Education Data published annually in public performance report Reported at Year 10, 15, 20 31/03/2044 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.4 People EY STEM Increase in the aspirations of young people to access STEM related careers Qualitative measure Qualitative measure Qualitative internal measure using feedback surveys and consultation with young people Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.5 People EY STEM Strengthening of Science Capital within families Qualitative measure Qualitative measure Qualitative internal measure using feedback surveys and consultation with families Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.6 People EY STEM Increase in skills within Moray’s education sector 28 STEM Champions across ELC and primary settings. 60 STEM Champions across ELC and Primary Settings Internal measure Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.7 People EY STEM Increase in training opportunities within Moray’s education sector 0 10 CPD sessions held annually Internal measure. Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.8 People EY STEM Increase in skills levels of Moray residents 0 10 Community STEM Learning Events held annually Internal measure Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.9 People EY STEM Increase in learning opportunities, activities and events offered to young people and families 0 9000 pupils engagements per annum with STEM starts. Internal measure Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Page 150
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Page 139 of 142 Peop.BR.10 People EY STEM Increase in young people, families, and communities accessing inspirational learning environments 0 10 public engagement events delivered, 300 engaged Internal measure Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.11 People EY STEM Increase in climate awareness of young people and the wider community 0 2000 pupils engaged per annum at the environmental education centre Internal measure Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.12 People EY STEM Increase in the awareness of Morays residents of the STEM career opportunities in Morays local economy Qualitative measure Qualitative measure Qualitative internal measure using feedback surveys and consultation with users Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Peop.BR.13 People EY STEM Increase in community and employer participation in the upskilling of young people 108 STEM Ambassadors registered on STEM Ambassador portal 162 STEM Ambassadors registed on STEM Ambassador Portal Data provided by SSERC Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Pop.BR.1 Population EY STEM Increase in Health and Wellbeing of young people Qualitative measure Qualitative measure Qualitative internal measure using feedback surveys and consultation with young people Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Plac.BR.1 Place EY STEM Increased access to specialist learning facilities and digital infrastructure to support learning pathways across all ages. 0 Creation of 5 STEM Centres accessible to wider community (4 fixed: 1 mobile) Internal measure Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Page 151
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Page 140 of 142 Plac.BR.2 Place EY STEM Improvement of local services and facilities accessed by the public 0 Creation of 5 STEM Centres accessible to wider community (4 fixed: 1 mobile) Internal measure Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Plac.BR.3 Place EY STEM Town centre regeneration and increase in town centre activity 0 Creation of 5 STEM Centres accessible to wider community (4 fixed: 1 mobile) Internal measure Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Fair.BR.1 Fairer Scotland Duty EY STEM Increased access through building design Creation of 5 STEM Centres accessible to wider community (4 fixed: 1 mobile) Internal measure Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Fair.BR.2 Fairer Scotland Duty EY STEM Reduction in rural inequality Creation of 5 STEM Centres accessible to wider community (4 fixed: 1 mobile) Internal measure Annually 31/03/2032 Hazel Sly Education Officer Figure 21 Benefits Monitoring Plan Page 152
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Page 141 of 142 Outline arrangements for post project evaluation The outline arrangements for post implementation review (PIR) and project evaluation review (PER) have been established in accordance with best practice and Moray Council Policy and will be developed in the delivery phase. The Early Years STEM Project budget includes an allowance for the following: ▪ Annual evaluation of benefits realised. ▪ Critical review of Phase 1 activity to provide adjustments, if necessary, to Phase 2 & 3 activity to optimise benefits ▪ Final project evaluation/reporting in 2031/32 to close project. Gateway review arrangements The strategy, framework and plan for dealing with stage gate review as per Moray Council Governance Policy can be accessed here: http://smi.moray.gov.uk/MPG/01%20Governance%20and%20Templates/Project%20Management%20Governance%20Policy.docx Contingency Plans If red rated risks start to pose a threat to delivery or Phase 2 sites fail to progress, the following measures are in place to ensure delivery of the required services and outputs: ▪ Capital development for the Elgin Centre is being developed with a range of M&E and building fabric upgrade options. Should costs exceed budget the minimal intervention option will be taken forward. ▪ Should the project fail in the acquisition of phase 2 sites, alternative locations have been identified and can be taken forward. Page 153
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