DRAFT Argyll and Bute CPP climate strategy for Area CPG
Argyll and Bute Council · 13 November 2024
Back to Oban Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group — 13 November 2024 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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Page 1 of 39 Argyll and Bute Climate Action: A climate change strategy for Argyll and Bute Strategic Approach Contents Argyll and Bute Climate Action: A climate change strategy for Argyll and Bute ........................... 1 Strategic Approach................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 Executive Summary................................................................................................................ 2 What does climate change mean for Argyll and Bute? .............................................................. 4 Hotter, drier summers ......................................................................................................... 5 Warmer, wetter winters ....................................................................................................... 8 Sea level rise and storm surges ......................................................................................... 12 How does ABCA work ........................................................................................................... 15 Vision, outcomes, objectives ............................................................................................ 16 Mitigation (to reduce our climate change gas emissions): Climate Friendly ......................... 18 Adaptation to unavoidable impacts of climate change: climate ready ................................. 23 Engagement: Climate Just................................................................................................. 27 Scoping Risk ........................................................................................................................ 28 Bringing it Together: Identifying Gaps and Opportunities ........................................................ 32 Opportunity Areas for Action ............................................................................................. 33 Infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 33 Policy Influence ............................................................................................................ 34 Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration ................................................................ 34 Risk/Economic Assessment .......................................................................................... 34 Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training ............................................................................... 35 Skills Development ....................................................................................................... 35 Other ............................................................................................................................ 35 Monitoring, Reporting and Evaluation ................................................................................... 36 Further Information/Contact ................................................................................................ 38
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Page 1 of 39 Introduction Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership is the group of organisations and community representatives working together to achieve improvements across the three outcomes of Housing, Transport Infrastructure and Community Wellbeing in ways which promote prevention, reduce inequalities and build community capacity. Community Planning Partnerships have a statutory obligation to create a 10-year Outcomes Improvement Plan under the provisions of the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015. The Argyll and Bute Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024-2034 has been developed through community engagement as the area emerges from a global pandemic, and deals with a cost of living crisis and the increasing impacts of climate change. The Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024-2034 focusses on improving the outcomes of Transport, Housing and Community Wellbeing. The Community Planning Partnership established a Climate Group in late 2021 in order to increase understanding of the facts and the urgency of addressing climate change within the whole of Argyll & Bute and promote actions for adaptation and mitigation for a just and equitable transition to a net zero economy. In support of this, the Community Planning Partnership has funded a Project Manager, employed by ACT, to lead development of a Climate Change Strategy and Action plan for the region. to undertake a region-wide climate risk assessment and to develop an integrated set of adaptation, mitigation and engagement actions, presented in a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll & Bute.
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Page 2 of 39 Executive Summary Argyll and Bute Climate Action is an initiative of the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership (CPP) to develop an integrated Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for the region, with ACT as the employing body for the project officer. The CPP is the group of organisations and community representatives working together to achieve improvements across Argyll and Bute in ways which promote prevention, reduce inequalities and build community capacity. Individual CPP organisations already have targets and work in progress to tackle climate change, but in addition we need to work together on: • Mitigation, to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases driving climate change: climate friendly, • Adaptation, to enable us to cope with the impacts of unavoidable climate change: climate ready, and • Engagement across all the community to ensure inclusion: climate just. Climate risks that Argyll and Bute faces are set into seven groups, with seven areas for action proposed to address these. The principles and approach guiding the Strategy are: • This is an enabling strategy: rather than creating new duties or replacing existing ones, it identifies gaps and opportunities, especially those made possible by working together. Climate Risks Flooding (water courses and surface water) Heavy rainfall, storms and landslides Temperature change, heatwaves and drought Sea level rise & coastal impacts Wildfires Multi-hazards affecting people, species, habitats Possible other unknowns Areas for Action Infrastructure Policy Influence Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Risk/Economic Assessment Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training Skills Development Other/crosscutting
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Page 3 of 39 • The strategy aligns with the CPP priorities of Transport Infrastructure , Housing and Community Wellbeing which in turn are aligned to requirements in our national climate programmes. • There is significant variation among our communities, places and landscapes, and we are being affected by climate change in multiple ways. • There are also some common challenges across the region, such as the length and vulnerability of transport links, and our low population density can make funding harder. • We need to build up a thorough understanding of the risks and opportunities we face, taking into account local knowledge and also local variations and capacity to adapt. • Climate Hubs are central to community engagement, with Hubs for the four Argyll & Bute administrative areas supporting networks of champions among communities. • We need to develop resilience: to develop skills and capacity to adapt to ongoing change. We need to identify quick wins alongside longer term major capital projects. • We need a socially just transition to a climate ready future: as we prepare for the impacts of the changing climate we do so in ways that are fair and tackle inequality. In addition to incremental steps to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and transitional steps to enhance our capacity to adapt, there is also a transformational component: as we improve our ability to cope with climate needs we also improve our current circumstances. An example of this sort of transformational change is the importance of developing our local economy through developing appropriate local skills, produce and markets and the housing, energy and other infrastructure to support them. This reduces our transport and waste emissions at the same time as reducing our dependence on vulnerable, extended transport links and enables us to add value locally and reduce economic leakage, at the same time as supporting transformational growth sectors such as energy and valuing our natural capital.
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Page 4 of 39 What does climate change mean for Argyll and Bute? There are some common challenges across the region but there is also significant variation within and between communities, places and landscapes. We need to build up a thorough understanding of the risks and opportunities that climate change presents to Argyll and Bute, and to identify action both to modify activity that contributes to climate change, and to adapt to impacts of unavoidable climate change both now and into the future. Throughout, we need to ensure that communities are engaged in the process and that local knowledge and experience is valued and used to guide the development of the initiative. We need to make Argyll climate ready, both for today’s climate and for the climate of the future: to reduce emissions to limit the extent of further climate change, to adapt to the impacts of unavoidable climate change, and to engage across communities to ensure a socially just transition to a low carbon future. The region’s characterising features of high diversity, low population density, long coastlines, largely rural small, isolated and ageing communities and long distances all impact on considerations of what “good” climate action means for Argyll and Bute. However, we also have urban considerations with our largest single centre of population being Helensburgh, and other important settlements with urban issues but rural supply chains and correspondingly long and vulnerable transport and other communications links. In short, the outlook for Argyll and Bute is overall increasing temperatures, with • Hotter, drier summers • Warmer, wetter winters • More severe weather events, and more variability • Sea level rise and storm surge Year on year, records for global temperatures and extreme weather events are being broken. Notwithstanding the cold and wet summer of 2024, over the next twenty five years in Scotland, summers are likely to be 7% drier and winters 7% wetter, with 25% increase in intense rainfall events, and sea level rise up to 18cm compared to the beginning of the century1. We see the use of terms such as “likely”, “projected and “estimated”: we have to work with the limitations of information that we have available from a wide range of sources, and in addition some earlier climate predictions have had to be revised as the effects of climate change have started to make impacts more quickly and more locally than previously anticipated, and also because despite massive strides in reducing carbon emissions from a range of activities, overall global emissions have continued to rise. Over the longer term, these trends are even greater: the graph below presents an actual average annual temperature rise of over 1 degree centigrade over the past 60 years, while the graph below that shows the projected increase under our current rate of carbon emissions over the next 60 years, as well as also incorporating the actual observed data as presented in the first graph: 1 A baseline of 1981-2000 is used by UK Climate Projections/Met Office
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Page 5 of 39 Overall increasing temperatures: Average annual temperature in Argyll & Bute 1960-2022 Projected temperature increase under high carbon emissions scenario to 2080 Hotter, drier summers Individual seasons vary and the cold and wet summer 2024 is in stark contrast to the hot, dry conditions prevailing in recent summers. Below we see summer temperatures for the overall Argyll River Basin area, which approximates closely to the overall Argyll and Bute area, with observed data and projected rise combined. Below for comparison is a further graph using one representative location, Oban. Further climate projections specific to a representative set of settlements across Argyll & Bute are in preparation for inclusion in the appendix, but despite 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017 Average temperature in Argyll & Bute 1960-2022 (°C) 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 Projected average temperature in Argyll & Bute RCP 8.5 (°C) -absolute values
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Page 6 of 39 major differences in day to day weather between different settlements, the differences in overall climate trends on a settlement-by-settlement basis are too small to be well represented in this format. In terms of the “drier” part, below are average summer precipitation rates for Argyll River Basin followed by Oban, both indicating downward trends. 3 4 5 6 7 Argyll River Basin summer average precipitation rate from 1981 -2080 (mm/day)
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Page 7 of 39 While temperature and precipitation projections indicate trends, another important consideration is minimum night time temperatures in summertime. The reason for this is that when there is less opportunity for buildings and paved surfaces in particular to cool down, the phenomenon of heat stress, particularly in vulnerable people, rises considerably. There is a strong link between heat stress and summer mortalities which are a growing trend particularly further south in the UK and Europe as temperatures increase with climate change, and a counterpart to the better known phenomenon of winter deaths due to cold and poorly heated and insulated housing. At present, for Argyll this is best presented as the “tropical nights” in Met Office terminology2. This is when at no point in a 24 hour period does the temperature drop below 20 degrees centigrade. Currently Argyll does not meet this threshold, but some recent research indicates that a rise of just 1°C above usual summer night-time temperatures could be linked to an increase in the risk of deaths from cardiovascular disease in some vulnerable groups3. This is inconclusive and not based on Scottish data but this remains an area to watch whereas discomfort and disruption to sleep on hot nights is well understood. Scenarios from further south point towards what we can expect in future, such as the example provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) for excess mortality in England and Wales during the hot summer (June to August) of 2022 which included five “heat- periods”, or days when the mean Central England Temperature is greater than 20°C. Over the five heat-periods, deaths were 6.2% above the five year average, with this peaking to 10.4% over the second heat-period (10 to 25 July)4. Below we see total annual rainfall in Argyll and Bute over the past 60 years, while the graph below that shows the picture in terms of the steady increase in intensity of rainfall over the past 60 years and into the next, again under the high carbon emissions scenario that we need to work with based on available information and progress globally in limiting our greenhouse gas emissions to date. 2 Annual Count of Tropical Nights - Projections (12km) | The Met Office climate data portal 3 Warmer summer nocturnal surface air temperatures and cardiovascular disease death risk: a population-based study | BMJ Open 4 Excess mortality during heat-periods - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) 3 4 5 6 7 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 2053 2057 2061 2065 2069 2073 2077 Summer average precipitation rate at Oban from 1981 - 2080 (mm/day)
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Page 8 of 39 Warmer, wetter winters In contrast to the trend for hotter, drier summers, in winter observed data and projections both point to trends to warmer, wetter winters with fewer days of frost under the overall trend for increasing temperatures. Once again, observed data and projections for Argyll River Basin are followed by more specific data and projections for Oban: More severe weather events, and more variability However, we can also expect increases in severity and frequency of severe weather events. Damage and disruption from flooding and landslides is one example: the heavy rain in early October 2023 caused £15m damage to infrastructure (mainly roads & bridges) in parts of Argyll and Bute and was not even one of the series of named national storms that autumn. While we have some sophisticated modelling of future temperature and precipitation, wind is harder to model and the Met Office climate change centre states that 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 2053 2057 2061 2065 2069 2073 2077 Argyll River Basin average winter mean air temperatures from 1981 -2080 (°C) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045 2049 2053 2057 2061 2065 2069 2073 2077 Winter average mean air temperature at Oban from 1981 - 2080 (°C)
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Page 9 of 39 Due to the lack of any observed trends, there haven’t been any studies so far which provide a link between changes in UK storminess and climate change. For example, the all-time record number of storms over the British Isles in winter 2013/14 couldn’t be linked to human-induced warming. In future, most climate projections indicate that winter windstorms will increase slightly in number and intensity over the UK i.e. more winter storms, including disproportionately more severe storms, are projected to cross the UK. However, this has medium confidence because a few climate models indicate differently5. In addition, the Met Office also notes that Winds associated with major storm events can be some of the most damaging and disruptive events for the UK with implications for property, power networks, road and rail transport and aviation. Calm periods with little wind, particularly over prolonged periods, can affect air quality whilst winds from a particular direction can be a critical factor in the spread of pathogens. For example, winds blowing in from continental Europe during winter can lead to substantially colder and often drier weather6. Wind direction can be of especial importance for Argyll and Bute due to the importance of marine transport in the area, with anecdotal evidence from ferry and marine tourism operators on the significance of wind direction events disrupting services and impacting upon coastal infrastructure, in addition to householders’ accounts of damage to roofs due to strong winds from unusual directions. The frequency of storm events over 2023-24 and the significance of wind as in the diagram below in these also point to the likelihood of more potential damage and disruption from wind although not all of these storms affected Argyll and Bute to the same extent, and as noted above the severe weather from 7 October 2023 was not actually a named storm. 5 UK and Global extreme events – Wind storms - Met Office 6 ukcp18-fact-sheet-wind_march21.pdf (metoffice.gov.uk)
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Page 10 of 39 Historic and projected rainfall intensity 1960-2080 An alternative way of presenting intensity of rainfall is the incidence of occasions with rainfall of 20mm or greater per hour. The graph below shows historic and projected incidence of intense rainfall events, noting that “future changes in extreme rainfall events could be almost 10 times more frequent in Northwest Scotland in 2080 compared to the 1980s, whilst in the south of the UK the value is closer to three times more frequent.”7 7 New research shows increasing frequency of extreme rain - Met Office 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 Projected precipitation rate for Argyll & Bute RCP 8.5 (mm/day) -absolute values
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Page 11 of 39 Current indications are that Argyll and Bute as a region is unlikely to suffer water scarcity in coming decades compared to other parts of Scotland and the UK, although this does not rule out local impacts and potential infrastructure damage, as indicated in Scottish Water’s 2024 climate change strategy8. However, at local level there have been instances of scarcity including occasional closure of the Crinan Canal. When there are issues relating to sufficiency or quantity with public mains water supplies, Scottish Water take steps to ensure safe drinking water is available to its users. This may include providing bottled water or bowsers. For private water supplies the situation is different and the responsibility lies with the users of the supply or any third party who provides or manages the supply by contract. In some circumstances the Council may be able to provide assistance when supplies run dry or are at serious risk of doing so. Assistance is usually limited to the provision of an emergency supply of bottled water for drinking to overcome the immediate need. Private water supplies may also be at higher risk of contamination after storm and flood events. About one third of the population of Argyll and Bute has a private water supply, which is ten times the Scottish average. This presents an Argyll-specific climate risk as private water supplies may be more vulnerable to either interruption or contamination in periods of low rainfall or drought. A recent illustration of this is apparent from SEPA’s June 2023 summary of water scarcity. While parts of Argyll suffered less scarcity than anywhere else in Scotland, parts of Kintyre and the islands were still at “Alert” level with Mull, Col and Tiree at Moderate (or 4 out of 5 on the scarcity scale from “Normal” to “Significant”)9. 8 290224ScottishWaterAdaptationPlan.pdf 9 20230630-water-scarcity-report-final.pdf (web-cdn.org)
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Page 12 of 39 Sea level rise and storm surges Sea level rise, both absolute and from storm surges, is also a concern. 80% of the population of Argyll and Bute lives within 1km of the coast (97% within 10km of coast), and we have over 200km of road within 25m of the sea (at high tide), especially Cowal & Bute. Replacement costs of sea defences for this stretch were estimated at £300m in 2015 prices. This would be equivalent to approximately £420m today due to inflation alone, with the actual figure likely significantly greater due to increased materials costs and more severe climatic conditions predicted. The graphs below show projected sea level rise for two sites in Argyll, Tobermory and Port Ellen, to the end of the century under a range of carbon emission scenarios. The upper two lines, green and blue, represent the most likely outcomes as these are based on current and historical global emissions trends. The difference between the two is that the green line, suggesting 0.6m rise at the end of the century, is the mid range of the high emissions scenario whereas the blue line, at over 0.9m, represents what is described as the “upper end allowance” to take into
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Page 13 of 39 account the most severe impact projections, drawn from UK Government guidance on data interpretation to inform coastal flood planning10: 10 Flood and coastal risk projects, schemes and strategies: climate change allowances - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Rise Projections at Tobermory tidal guage site (m) RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 (95th) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Rise projections Port Ellen tidal guage site (m) RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 8.5 (95th)
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Page 14 of 39 To help with calibration, Nature Scot’s 2017 assessment of impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges due to climate change in the Firth of Clyde offers a projection of 0.47m over the same period11. This is also under the RCP 8.5 scenario but is based on the UK Climate Projections from 2009 (UKCP09) which was the latest data available at the time of publication as opposed to the UKCP18 data now available. This paper also notes that “Projected future changes in storm surge were very small (millimetres) compared to those of sea-level rise (tens of centimetres) and amount to 1% of the anticipated sea-level rise. This suggests that the contribution of storm surges to sea level will change little with climate change in this area.” The Mat Office UKCP18 fact sheet on sea level rise and storm surge12 indicated likewise that significant increase in storm surges is unlikely, but an important point here is that the impact of storm surges can already be significant and increasing sea levels will make these impacts correspondingly greater. The combined Highland and Argyll flood risk management plan estimates 15,000 homes at risk of flooding (Highland as well as Argyll) increasing to 38,000 by the 2080s due to climate change. Interviews across institutions and communities to date point to climate solutions not necessarily around single issues but rather bringing together and encouraging local skills, produce and markets including through procurement initiatives. 11 SNH Commissioned Report 891: Impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges due to climate change in the Firth of Clyde (nature.scot) 12 ukcp18-fact-sheet-sea-level-rise-and-storm-surge.pdf (metoffice.gov.uk)
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Page 15 of 39 How does ABCA work Under the leadership and guidance of the Community Planning Partnership and sub groups including the Climate Change Working Group and the Argyll & Bute Climate Action Steering Group, the priority for the project is to undertake a region-wide audit & gap analysis to identify current activity, overlaps and gaps; to undertake a region-wide climate risk assessment and to develop an integrated set of adaptation, mitigation and engagement actions, presented in a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll & Bute. Climate risks have been identified as seven groups, with seven main areas for action proposed to address these: The mandate and funding to develop a Climate Change Strategy for Argyll comes from the Community Planning Partnership and reflects the community’s stated priorities of transport infrastructure, housing and community wellbeing. The project is advised by a Steering Group drawn from to the Climate Change Working Group of the Community Planning Partnership. Three guiding principles are • Argyll and Bute communities, places and landscapes are being affected by climate change in different ways. There are likely to be common challenges across the region but there will also be significant variation within and between communities, places and landscapes. • The proposed climate risk and opportunity assessment and follow on mitigation, adaptation planning and implementation must identify region-wide climate risks and opportunities for action and take account of local variations and capacity to adapt. • All aspects of the initiative including governance and leadership arrangements, identifying climate risks and opportunities and developing mitigation, adaptation and Climate Risks Flooding (water courses and surface water) Heavy rainfall, storms and landslides Temperature change, heatwaves and drought Sea level rise & coastal impacts Wildfires Multi-hazards affecting people, species, habitats Possible other unknowns Areas for Action Infrastructure Policy Influence Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Risk/Economic Assessment Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training Skills Development Other/crosscutting
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Page 16 of 39 engagement strategies and actions will be carried out in an inclusive and accessible way and reflect on just transition. Priority will be given to ensuring that communities, physical or virtual, are engaged in these processes and that local knowledge and experience is valued and used to guide the development of the initiative. This requires: • Working with everyone: council and other public bodies, businesses and charities and the wider community. • Finding out what is already happening and where there are gaps and greatest risks or indeed opportunities: there is already a lot of positive action on climate change taking place and we need to identify this, to maximise the benefits from working together. This could mean areas or communities that are most vulnerable, or where the consequences of inaction can be greatest. • Making links with existing programmes and initiatives. The Strategy will complement and be complemented by the grassroots approach of the Argyll & Bute Climate Action Hub. This can also help us to establish priorities where the need is greatest or where we can attract resources. The structure has been informed by review of a wide range of existing and in-progress climate programme plans and in particular by Climate Ready Clyde, Climate Ready Aberdeenshire, Highland Adapts and Climate Ready South East Scotland. This is on the basis that Climate Ready Clyde as the pioneering regional approach effectively set the standard for an integrated approach, while Climate Ready Aberdeenshire has drawn upon this but also provides relative brevity and simplicity as requested by partners. Highland Adapts has multiple similarities with the Argyll and Bute geography and economy geography but with a more detailed and longer development period, and Climate Ready South East Scotland although dissimilar in geography and economy is working on a comparable timescale. The work also draws on the shared expertise of the Sustainable Scotland Network as well as benefiting from technical support from Sniffer/Adaptation Scotland. Vision, outcomes, objectives Vision Now and into the future, we want a thriving Argyll and Bute where our collective choices and action enhance our continued wellbeing in a changing climate. The climate change strategy addresses • Mitigation to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions: towards a climate friendly Argyll and Bute • Adaptation to unavoidable impacts of climate change: towards a climate ready Argyll and Bute • Engagement to ensure inclusion: towards a climate just Argyll and Bute Our vision is that We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate
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Page 17 of 39 Outcomes The Community Planning Partnership originally had a set of six outcomes aligned to the National Performance Framework which following further public consultation have been corralled into three crosscutting priority outcomes: • Transport Infrastructure • Housing • Community Wellbeing. This principle is followed here and national and wider climate outcomes including Net Zero Nation, the Scottish National Adaptation Plan13 and UN Sustainable Development Goals are grouped against the three CPP outcomes. Objectives The objectives for the strategy are grouped under three work packages agreed by the CPP • Governance and leadership o Identifying leadership and champions (organisations and community) o Liaison and reporting with CPP structures o Vision and theory of change o Engagement strategy o Logo, branding and image • Understanding the challenge 13 Climate change: Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) NPF Outcomes SNAP24 Draft Outcomes UN SDGs CPP Outcomes CPP Key Partnership Groups CPP 3 Overarching Priorities We value, enjoy, protect and enhance our environment. We have thriving and innovative businesses, with quality jobs and fair work for everyone We live in communities that are inclusive, empowered, resilient and safe We have a globally competitive, entrepreneurial, inclusive and sustainable economy Public Services and Infrastructure: Public services are collaborating in effective, inclusive adaptation action. 7, 9, 11 Outcome 2: We have infrastructure that supports sustainable growth Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 Working Group Transport We value, enjoy, protect and enhance our environment We are healthy and active We live in communities that are inclusive, empowered, resilient and safe Communities: Communities creating climate-resilient, healthy and equitable places. 2,7,11 Outcome 6: People live in safer and stronger communities Violence against Women Partnership; Suicide Prevention Group; Multi- agency Road Safety Group; Adult Protection Committee; Community Safety Partnership; Public Protection Group Housing We grow up loved, safe and respected so that we realise our full potential We live in communities that are inclusive, empowered, resilient and safe We have a globally competitive, entrepreneurial, inclusive and sustainable economy We are healthy and active We tackle poverty by sharing opportunities, wealth and power more equally Communities: Communities creating climate-resilient, healthy and equitable places. 1,3,5,10,1 1 Outcome 4: Children and young people have the best possible start; Outcome 5: People live active, healthier and independent lives ; Outcome 6: People live in safer and stronger communities Argyll and Bute’s Children Child Poverty Group; Children’s Rights Group; Youth Justice Strategic Working Group; Living Well Steering Group; Health and Wellbeing Partnership (Third Sector); Suicide Prevention Group; Child Poverty Group; Violence against Women Partnership Community Welbeing We value, enjoy, protect and enhance our environment Nature Connects: Nature connects across our lands, settlements, coasts and seas. 2,6,14,15 Outcome 2: We have infrastructure that supports sustainable growth; Community Welbeing We have a globally competitive, entrepreneurial, inclusive and sustainable economy We have thriving and innovative businesses, with quality jobs and fair work for everyone We are well educated, skilled and able to contribute to society Economy, Industry and Business: Economies and industries are adapting and realising opportunities in Scotland’s Just Transition. 2,4,6,8,9, 12 Outcome 1: The economy is diverse and thriving; Outcome 3: Education, skills and training maximise opportunities for all Rural Growth Deal Steering Group; Argyll Economic Resilience Forum; Argyll and Bute Overarching Recovery Group; CLD Partnership; Employability Partnership Transport, Housing We have a globally competitive, entrepreneurial, inclusive and sustainable economy We are open, connected and make a positive contribution internationally We tackle poverty by sharing opportunities, wealth and power more equally International: Scotland’s international role supports climate justice and enhanced global action on climate adaptation. 1,5,10,13, 16,17 Outcome 1: The economy is diverse and thriving Rural Growth Deal Steering Group Argyll Economic Resilience Forum; Argyll and Bute Overarching Recovery Group Transport, Community Wellbeing
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Page 18 of 39 o Audit & gap analysis o Mitigation o Adaptation o Engagement • Planning and implementation o Quick win opportunities o Pilot projects o Training o Funding o Scope options for planning and implementation (Transport, Housing, Community Wellbeing) Proposals for taking forward specifics under these are listed in the Task List in Appendix 2. This refers to development of the strategy as distinct to the Action Plan under development to take forward delivery under the principal Areas for Action identified in the strategy. Mitigation (to reduce our climate change gas emissions): Climate Friendly Crucial to efforts to mitigate our contribution to climate change is the concept of “net zero”. This is the approach to mitigation adopted by the Scottish and UK Governments on the basis that while we can seek to reduce emissions from our actions and processes we cannot always eliminate them altogether. Net zero requires that where we are unable to reduce emissions to zero in some areas we need to ensure that in others we go beyond zero such as by appropriately managed afforestation, peatland and marine (blue carbon) restoration and more controversially through carbon capture and storage technology. This is of particular significance to Argyll and Bute with extensive areas of forest and peatland, extensive coastline and a small population relative to the area. The Operational Plan underlying the strategy notes that, “it is expected that Mitigation will mostly be directed and mandated through national regulatory and incentive programs” and prescribes a route map for net zero and beyond in order to • identify the opportunities for Argyll and Bute to reduce emissions at least in line with national targets • maximise the sequestration of carbon in our natural landscapes • highlight areas where action is needed in the next five years to prepare the ground for these changes • what we can leave to national processes to deliver, and where we can help quicken the pace of change • identify region-wide approaches and also take account of the variation in opportunities across different communities, places and landscapes. Most of the CPP partner members have Public Body Climate Change reporting duties under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act based on the current (2022-23) set of reports as published by
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Page 19 of 39 the Sustainable Scotland Network14, collectively these organisations bodies have averaged reductions of 41% since their baseline reporting years. Reductions are presented as percentage rather than as gross figures because many of the bodies cover wider geographic areas than Argyll and Bute. These are summarised in the Emissions 2023 tab of the spreadsheet GORE Gaps Opportunities Risks Emissions provided with the appendix. • Not all bodies have a published Carbon Management/Decarbonisation Plan. Some report that this is planned or in progress and there are potential opportunities in joint working and skill and data sharing across the CPP to support this. • The Scottish Government expects to develop templates for area-wide emissions to complement individual bodies’ reports over the next year to 18 months, which may bring wider emissions within scope of the CPP partner bodies’ duties. Similarly, the Scottish Government have work in progress to make reporting requirements around Scope 3 emissions (supply chain) clearer and more robust. Currently the two emissions data sets specifically covering the Argyll and Bute boundary are Argyll and Bute Council’s emissions figures as presented in its Climate Change Duties Report15, 16 and the Local Authority Greenhouse Gas Map17 from the National Atmospheric Emissions Laboratory. Gross figures from the Local Authority Greenhouse Gas Map are a grand total of 257 ktCO2e, of which • Industry 85 • Commercial 35 • Domestic 152 • Transport 186 • Waste Management 23 • Agriculture 297 • Land Use/land use change and forestry MINUS 532 • Public Sector 10 (yet council alone in its report provides 28 ktCO2e) Due to the high area of afforested land, land use in Argyll delivers a net saving of 532 ktCO2e making our total emissions across all sectors only 257 ktCO2e despite being the second largest county by area This also translates to 3 tonnes per capita which is 25% under the global average of 4 tonnes (although to have the best chance of avoiding a 2℃ rise in global temperatures, the average global carbon footprint per year needs to drop to under 2 tons by 2050). These can easily be interpreted as a recipe for inaction, but if we discount the forestry figure, our county emissions look more like 676 ktCO2e with our per capita emissions up correspondingly. 14 Reports (sustainablescotlandnetwork.org) 15 https://sustainablescotlandnetwork.org/slickr_media_upload?id=2005 16 2021-22 figures used. 2022-23 Climate Duty reports have been published but GHG Map still using 2021 figures as at May 2024. 17 Local Authority GHG Map (beis.gov.uk)
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Page 20 of 39 Argyll and Bute Council’s emissions figures refer to its own operations rather than to the area as a whole, so the figures are not directly comparable with the Local Authority Greenhouse Gas Map. Other public bodies operating in the region produce their own emissions plans and reports. Meetings to date have identified that for some of these they are currently revising decarbonisation/carbon management plans. However, the other public bodies operating in the area work to different geographical boundaries, with some operating only in part of the area, and others covering wider regional areas such as Argyll and Highland, or operating nationally, so again this means that figures for the various organisations from these reports are not directly comparable. In order to enable some form or comparison, the gap and opportunity analysis exercise looked at percentage emissions changes for these organisations in order to enable a picture of the overall relative direction and pace of travel. Collectively, the public bodies in Argyll with climate reporting duties have achieved an average reduction of 41% in carbon emissions over the period in which thy have been reporting (usually around 10 years) and common consensus is that the easy wins have long since been made with further reductions largely dependent upon major infrastructure developments to support lower carbon energy and transport.
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Page 21 of 39 A useful piece of terminology to help understand how carbon emissions are reported is the distinction between Scope 1, Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions. Scope 1 refers to direct emissions from sources that the organisation owns or controls directly, such as emissions from fleet vehicles or boilers for heating buildings. Scope 2 is indirect emissions and purchased energy such as purchased electricity for heating buildings or running equipment. Scope 3 is more complex as this covers everything outside Scopes 1 and 2, including procurement and the wider supply chain, commuting and homeworking and also waste. For most CPP partners, Scope 3 is the hardest to measure category of emissions. Beyond the public sector, emissions information is much less readily available and there is limited scope for the strategy via the CPP to place requirements on other bodies to take action or make information available, although there is some potential such as via incentive uptake rates where these are reported and this will be an important consideration for the route map. The operational plan makes specific reference to sequestration. This is the term for capturing, stabilising and storing carbon rather than have it escape into the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. Estimates for economic opportunities for carbon sequestration range from £8.7m, based on restoring 10% of local degraded peatland, to more than £3bn when looking at longer-term high value integrated projects18. Steering Group partners have emphasised the importance of ensuring that sequestration measures and any emissions reductions claimed are genuine, and also the risk of the high amount of forestry in Argyll and Bute artificially reducing per capita and per hectare emissions and that this could be misinterpreted as a recipe for inaction and complacency on climate change. 18 Carbon sequestration Argyll and Bute research | HIE
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Page 22 of 39 Discussions of carbon sequestration are further nuanced by the concepts of offsetting and a newer and less well known alternative, “insetting”. This concept will be of increasing importance for Argyll and Bute. Offsetting refers to the buying of carbon credits to offset carbon emissions that a body is unable or unwilling to reduce, and has been the subject of repeated criticisms concerning how robust the models employed are and how genuine and lasting any emission savings are. Insetting has been described by the Carbon Literacy Project as “carbon insetting focuses on doing more good rather than doing less bad within one’s value chain. Instead of investing in projects outside their value chains, companies engaging in carbon insetting invest in reducing carbon emissions within their own value chains. At the same time, these projects can also create positive impacts on communities, landscapes and ecosystems.”19 The subtleties of offsetting and insetting are of major potential significance for Argyll and Bute. Research by the Scottish Association for Marine Science for Highland and Islands Enterprise on optimising carbon sequestration opportunities in Argyll and Bute20 indicates that terrestrial ecosystems in Argyll and Bute hold between 587- 990 MtCO2e (million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent), of which 510-898 MtCO2e comes from soils to 1 m depth and 77-90 MtCO2e is held within the aboveground vegetation, half of which is held within the woodlands and forests. Put another way, soil stocks alone hold more than ten times Scotland’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. For the marine environment, the same research indicates that the marine sediments of Argyll and Bute hold an estimated 166 MtCO2e carbon. Distinctions between mitigation/reducing carbon emissions, and adaptation/taking action to reduce the impacts of unavoidable climate change can be blurred and in the case of CPP partners, and opportunities for reducing emissions through working in partnership, this is even more the case. The examples above indicate the amount of carbon stored in land and the potential for enhancing carbon storage through land management, but bringing, for example, peatland and woodlands into positive 19 Carbon Insetting vs Carbon Offsetting - The Carbon Literacy Project 20 https://www.hie.co.uk/media/13011/optimising-carbon-sequestration-opportunities-in-ab-sams-wp1- and-3.pdf ACT are participants in the Facility for Investment Ready Nature in Scotland (FIRNS), working to develop a project integrity charter and a governance and enterprise model. The outcome of this project and the other 26 FIRNS projects currently being worked through in Scotland will help to define how natural capital finance can work in Scotland and support delivery of climate action specific to Argyll and Bute, while also potentially helping to address widespread perceptions that more could be done to improve the social and economic as well as environmental impacts of land use, land use change and forestry. Argyll has some of the finest remnants of temperate rainforest in all of Europe. Restoring the rainforest and associated habitats of Argyll & the Isles will give rainforest biodiversity the best chance to adapt to our changing climate, to sequester carbon and to prevent soil erosion and flooding. Scottish Rainforest restoration projects are creating the equivalent of 40 new full-time jobs and investing £3.2 million in rural communities, with over half of that investment being in Argyll.
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Page 23 of 39 management also offer opportunities to reduce flood and wildfire risk as well as enhancing biodiversity, local amenity and creating job opportunities. Another example is the CPP’s role in prevention and enhancing resilience and addressing vulnerability: if collective action on resilience and community wellbeing can reduce demand on emergency services this can also reduce Scope 1 emissions due to fleet emissions for these organisations, which for this category of services is their greatest single source of emissions. Adaptation to unavoidable impacts of climate change: climate ready With global carbon emissions continuing to rise and increasing incidence of crossing tipping points and temperature records, the importance of adaptation continues to grow. While mitigation is expected to be mostly driven by existing national plans and targets, complemented by partnership opportunities, and where most of the easy wins have already been made, adaptation is less explored and at the same time frequently of greater understandable importance and immediacy to communities: impacts of road and other transport closures, floods and high rain and winds all provide recent examples felt throughout the region. These threats are compounded by the length and vulnerability of transport links and also the low population density making capital funding harder to access, but conversely where taking measures to support community resilience, compounded with building upon local knowledge and experience and wider reviews such as the 2023 Scotland Adaptation Progress Report21 can identify opportunities. A lower number of organisations have adaptation plans than carbon reduction plans, although several indicate that this is a planned area of work in the current year or immediate future. As with mitigation, key achievements or opportunities are indicated where possible and recurrent or major themes are brought into a short list of potential measures. Organisations do not currently have to have published adaptation plans but this is under review and the Scottish Government may mandate this in future for public bodies. Although addressed to the Scottish Government, the top ten of the 51 recommendations from the Progress Report are also relevant at local level: • Ensure that support for adaptation alongside decarbonisation is included in key building policies • Address data gaps on impacts to buildings and adaptation actions by utilising already available data to track resilience of the building stock, monitoring of samples of existing buildings in at-risk locations, and home resilience reporting that include assessments of flood and overheating resilience. • Proactive adaptation measures for overheating and flood resilience in buildings. • Identifying at-risk buildings, awareness raising, training and engagement on property- level flood protection. • Address data gaps on Scottish business preparedness, availability of capital and insurance for adaptation, and the effectiveness of business adaptation actions. • Measures for reducing water use by business. 21 https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/adapting-to-climate-change-progress-in-scotland/
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Page 24 of 39 • Supply chain resilience to climate hazards • Adaptation reporting requirements • Initiatives for place-based and cross-sectoral adaptation and including support for vulnerable areas and sectors • Long-term planning, including monitoring of weather-related incident response The UK Climate Change Committee’s 10 adaptation principles applied to Argyll & Bute Principle Progress/Opportunities for Action 1 A vision for a well adapted UK Proposed vision: “We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate” 2 Integrate adaptation into other policies Examples include links with flood resilience plans, community risk register, housing and transport policies, sustainable procurement, carbon literate training 3 Adapt to 2°C; assess the risks for 4°C Always work to high emissions scenarios 4 Avoid lock-in This links well with integrating with other policies, by seeking to identify co benefits and also to avoid reliance on a single action or technology. The geographic scale and diversity of Argyll and Bute also mandate this approach. Also the importance of factoring climate into eg major infrastructure projects. Building new homes without designing in adaptations to future conditions such as extreme heat is an example. 5 Prepare for unpredictable extremes This requires an acceptance that the unexpected can happen and emphasises the need to enhancing overall resilience in addition to specific flood/heatwave etc measures 6 Assess interdependencies This is one of the great strengths of the CPP model where many of the key agencies and partnership working can help to address interdependencies. Many adaptation measures can also have strong links with mitigation. 7 Understand threshold effects Things happen fast after thresholds or tipping points are crossed (eg algal blooms when water is over 17 centigrade), meaning a new course of action may be needed, but adaptation plans have often focussed on gradual changes over time. Building up a bank of threshold effects appropriate to Argyll can inform how to take these into account. 8 Address inequalities Working through the CPP priority outcomes around transport, housing and community wellbeing provides a strong basis for this. There are well documented links between climate vulnerability and social inequality and the community remit of the CPP can support prioritising accordingly. 9 Consider opportunities Meetings with key partners and literature review to inform the gap and opportunity analysis have identified 6 main opportunity areas for action: o Infrastructure o Policy Influence o Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration o Risk/Economic Assessment o Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training
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Page 25 of 39 o Skills Development 10 Funding, resourcing, metrics, research A specific task in the operational plan is to identify funding and pilot opportunities. The 5 Outcomes of the draft Scottish National Adaptation Strategy • Public Services and Infrastructure: Public services are collaborating in effective, inclusive adaptation action. • Communities: Communities creating climate-resilient, healthy and equitable places. • Nature Connects: Nature connects across our lands, settlements, coasts and seas. • Economy, Industry and Business: Economies and industries are adapting and realising opportunities in Scotland’s Just Transition. • International: Scotland’s international role supports climate justice and enhanced global action on climate adaptation. Adaptation: Risk Assessment A climate risk assessment for Argyll and Bute will be required as part of ongoing work, and one proposed priority area for action is to collaborate with Community Planning partners who are starting their own processes of developing adaptation plans who need to undertake climate risk assessments. The first draft of this strategy circulated in March 2023 proposed the set of 15 headline “Consequences” identified by Adaptation Scotland as a starting point for scoping climate risk in Argyll to inform future risk assessment work. Fifteen headline risks and consequences for Scotland22, of which some will be of particular significance for different parts of Argyll and Bute, are: • The productivity of our agriculture and forests: potential to improve growing conditions and increase the productivity of agriculture and forestry, but also threats from more variable and extreme weather to the spread of pests and diseases. • The occurrence of pests and disease • The quality of our soils: We rely on soils to sustain biodiversity, support agriculture and forestry, regulate the water cycle and store carbon. Soils and vegetation may be altered by changes to rainfall and increased temperatures - as well as the way we use the land. • The health of our natural environment: Climate change may affect the delicate balance of Scotland’s ecosystems and transform Scotland’s habitats and biodiversity, adding to existing pressures. Some distinctive Scottish species may struggle and could be lost, invasive non-native species may thrive, while a degraded environment may not be able to sustain productive land or water supply. • The security of our food supply: Although Scotland may be able to grow more food, this will not offset the impact global disruption has on us. The effects of increased volatility in the global commodity market due to exposure to extreme climatic events has an impact on supply and cost of food. • The availability and quality of water: Summer droughts may become more frequent and more severe causing problems for water quality and supply. • The increased risk of flooding 22 https://adaptationscotland.org.uk/climatereadyplaces/impacts/
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Page 26 of 39 • The change at our coast: More coastal flooding, erosion and coastline retreat. • The health of our marine environment: The changes will present both threats and opportunities to our commercial fisheries and aquaculture. • The resilience of our businesses: Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt transport, energy and communication networks in Scotland and around the world. This could impact on markets, affect supply chains and raise insurance costs. • The health and wellbeing of our people: A warming climate may provide more opportunity to be outdoors and enjoy a healthy and active lifestyle, while reducing mortality in winter. However, it could affect patterns of disease and other health issues. Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt the lives of individuals and communities, limiting access to vital services and impacting on people’s physical and mental health. • Our cultural heritage and identity: The changing climate is already altering our unique Scottish landscape and threatening our historic environment through coastal erosion, flooding and wetter, warmer conditions. • The security and efficiency of our energy supply: IN addition to local generation and transmission, impacts on global energy markets may also affect energy supplies in Scotland and consequently our overall energy security. • The performance of our buildings • Infrastructure – network connectivity and interdependencies: Our infrastructure is closely inter-linked and failure in any area can lead to wider disruption across these networks. In line with the methodology developed by Climate Ready Clyde and subsequently adopted in modified form by subsequent regional climate initiatives, these and the set of 61 risks identified in the UC Climate Change Committee’s Climate Change Risk Assessment (Summary for Scotland) were put through a screening and scoping exercise by the project manager and peer groups to identify a set of key risk areas, and also presented to the CPP Full Partnership for corroboration with their own experience.
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Page 27 of 39 Engagement: Climate Just We are using “climate just” as shorthand for Just Transition. The Scottish Government defined just transition as “A just transition is both the outcome – a fairer, greener future for all – and the process that must be undertaken in partnership with those impacted by the transition to net zero. Just transition is how we get to a net zero and climate resilient economy, in a way that delivers fairness and tackles inequality and injustice.” 23 In the context of developing a climate change strategy for Argyll and Bute, engagement spans: • Core Community Planning Partnership partners • Wider CPP partners • CPP technical partners • National technical partners and networks • Wider Argyll & Bute institutions and networks • Communities across Argyll and Bute, including • Administrative areas • Individual locations and settlements The three guiding principles underlying the ABCA business case are fundamental to the engagement approach: • Argyll and Bute communities, places and landscapes are being affected by climate change in different ways. There are likely to be common challenges across the region but there will also be significant variation within and between communities, places and landscapes. • The proposed climate risk and opportunity assessment and follow on mitigation, adaptation planning and implementation must identify region-wide climate risks and opportunities for action and take account of local variations and capacity to adapt. • All aspects of the initiative including governance and leadership arrangements, identifying climate risks and opportunities and developing mitigation, adaptation and engagement strategies and actions will be carried out in an inclusive and accessible way and reflect on just transition. Priority will be given to ensuring that communities, physical or virtual, are engaged in these processes and that local knowledge and experience is valued and used to guide the development of the initiative. 23 https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy- plan/2021/09/transition-fairer-greener-scotland/documents/transition-fairer-greener-scotland/transition- fairer-greener-scotland/govscot%3Adocument/transition-fairer-greener-scotland.pdf
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Page 28 of 39 Engagement to date with other organisations operating in the climate change field including Scottish Government and their advisory bodies has made it apparent that there is a growing expectation that mitigation and potentially to a greater extent adaptation will require communities not only to become resilient but also to develop ever greater agency in providing resilience. It will be vital in the engagement programme to ensure that consideration is given not only to themes such as “inform” and “educate” that have characterised much of climate communications but that involvement, capacity building, learning from communities and co design will be of increasing importance. There is also a major climate justice consideration inherent: communities that are already vulnerable are most likely to be vulnerable to climate impacts, and there may also be an expectation that they will be the ones to provide local action by way of solution. Parallel to ABCA strategy development is the A&B Climate Action Hub project with Scottish Government funding in support of outcomes including • Widen participation by engaging new communities and strengthening existing activity. • Increase in community led climate change mitigation, adaptation and biodiversity projects, driven by communities themselves, contributing to a fair and just transition to net zero. • Increasing community resilience and knowledge of how to respond to climate change; • Strengthened and increased collaboration and knowledge sharing across and between community groups, public, private and 3rd sector partners leading to an acceleration in community action • Minority and disadvantaged communities are visible, confident and active within the network, taking part and leading climate action activities. • Increase in community climate literacy, which directly leads to a 5 - 15% reduction in participant’s carbon footprints. • Increase in involvement in policy setting, decision making and local place planning with climate lens by communities. This parallel initiative greatly enhances the reach of the overall ACT/CPP climate effort. Although separately funded and staffed, the two projects are working in close collaboration and a basis for distinction is that ABCAN Hub has more of a grassroots and community focus whereas ABCA Strategy is slightly more oriented towards institutions, but can also ensure that the grassroots activity and aspirations from the Hub have a strategic voice. Scoping Risk The approach taken here is based upon methodology devised by Climate Ready Clyde and adopted by subsequent regional climate programmes, adapted in liaison with Sniffer/Adaptation Scotland. This is a six step process comprising: • Step 1: Screen the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) Summary for Scotland – filter the UKCCRA Summary to identify a core set of risks and opportunities. • Step 2: Desk-based evidence review • Step 3: Develop thematic risk and opportunity registers – The various risks and opportunities were reassembled into bespoke groups of risks and opportunities, grouped by themes. • Step 4: Validate with stakeholders and develop impact chains.
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Page 29 of 39 • Step 5: Initial consultation – thematic chapters updated to include identified adaptation actions in place or planned. Share draft chapters amongst relevant stakeholders for review. • Step 6: Assign urgency scores to risks and opportunities – allocate provisional categories to each risk, followed by a final workshop to validate scoring. The processes of developing risk assessments in support of adaptation plans taken by Climate Ready Clyde and other regional plans have started with screening the UK Climate Change Committee’s Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) to identify a core set of risks and opportunities. For Argyll and Bute Climate Action this process started with peer group review of initial scoping by the project manager of the set of 61 strategic risks identified by UKCCRA and grouped into 5 categories: Natural Environment and Assets; Infrastructure; Health, Communities and Built Environment; Business and Industry; and International Dimensions. These 5 categories were then aligned with the CPP outcomes of Transport, Housing and Community Wellbeing. This has necessarily been an arbitrary exercise as many of the risks are crosscutting. “Community” was interpreted to include non human communities in order to fit nature and biodiversity within the set of three outcomes. An initial scoping In/Out was suggested, with a short rationale for scoping each risk In/Out included. Peer group members were then asked to indicate if they agreed that particular risks should be scoped in or out, based on the CPP’s remit and ability to take action or have influence in relation to the respective risks. The full spreadsheet is provided with the appendix with the image below providing a snapshot for illustration. The result is a set of 7 proposed risk groups, cross checked with lived experience drawn from stakeholder meetings and feedback from the ABCAN Climate Action Network.
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Page 30 of 39 • Flooding (water courses and surface water) • Heavy rainfall, storms and landslides • Temperature change, heatwaves and drought • Sea level rise & coastal impacts • Wildfires • Multi-hazards affecting people, species, habitats • Anything else? Possible other unknowns Following the initial scoping and peer scoping, the findings were presented to September meeting of the CPP Full Partnership. The participants were asked to indicate their perception of these risks based on their own experience either personally or upon their organisations or areas of work, and the exercise is to be repeated with the Climate Change Working Group This set of actions corresponds to step 1 and some of step 4 of the 6 step risk assessment process developed by Climate Ready Clyde and adopted by subsequent regional programme.
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Page 31 of 39 It is noted that several CPP members have risk assessments planned for this year or the immediate future. Several regional adaptation initiatives have commissioned consultant support in developing risk assessments and Risk/Economic Assessment is proposed as one of the set of ten measures in the Gaps and Opportunities section. In support of this, key findings from Highland Adapts’ recently published risk and opportunity and economic assessments24 relating to a set of key sectors comparable to Argyll and Bute are included in the appendix in the expectation that these can be replaced with Argyll-specific assessments over the action plan development phase. This scoping is emphatically not about what risks are the most important, but about what are within the CPP’s scope and ability to take action. 24 Economic Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Highlands (highlandadapts.scot) Risk and Opportunity Assessments by key Sectors from Highland Adapts In September 2024 Highland Adapts released their economic analysis of three key sectors which form part of their wider ongoing Climate Risk and Opportunity Assessment. The analysis includes circular economy considerations which resonate strongly with stakeholder comments and Argyll and Bute’s proposed approach to Community Wealth Building. This includes risks to salmon production currently at £0.5 - £5m per year currently; £5 - £25m per year to 2050s to 2080s whisky production £5 - £25m per year currently; greater than £25m per year 2050s to 2080s impact on forestry from wildfires currently £5-25m per year
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Page 32 of 39 Bringing it Together: Identifying Gaps and Opportunities As noted in the preceding section, we started with a need to find out what is already happening and where there are gaps or opportunities and greatest risks. This cuts across mitigation, adaptation and engagement. This has been informed through • Review of CPP partners’ Climate Change Duty reports • Review of partners’ climate change plans where published • Review of other regional climate plans • Liaison with Sniffer/Adaptation Scotland • Review of other plans and strategies relevant to Argyll and Bute • Meetings with stakeholders including CPP representatives • Feedback from the wider community mainly via the A&B Climate Action Network Hubs In Argyll and Bute, the most comprehensive and consistent information relating to the overall picture of current climate action comes from the Climate Duty reports provided by the public bodies operating in the area. This provides a strong although not perfect match with the main bodies in the CPP and consequently this can provide an illustration of both activity within the CPP and potential gaps where the CPP may have agency or capacity to take action, either collectively or by constituent bodies. These are complemented by published climate strategies but not all organisations have these and some treat items such as risk assessments as confidential internal documents. Meetings with stakeholders have included suggestions relating to other organisations, and these are currently excluded from the analysis as “informal”. Likewise, meetings with stakeholders outside the public sector have revealed a wide range of action but less regarding reporting requirements relating to these. Future work including business grants and agricultural/land management payments will include elements of carbon and other environmental reporting but these are currently work in progress to be captured within the Action Plan as this is developed over 2025. A collaboration with Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface is under development to undertake a comprehensive audit of the sector across Argyll and Bute including elements on climate readiness which can further inform the development of the Action Plan in support of this strategy over 2025. Developing the Action Plan also needs to be informed by local knowledge from partners and the wider community, requiring ongoing engagement to complement the literature review and meetings held to date. Building upon the literature review and engagement, the project manager proposed a set of opportunity areas for action aligned against key findings from the partners’ published Public Body Climate Duty reports • Infrastructure • Policy Influence • Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration • Risk/Economic Assessment • Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training
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Page 33 of 39 • Skills Development • Other These categories of measures were reviewed by peers via a spreadsheet with three columns of drop down boxes in order to prioritise measures associated with the Climate Duty reports to establish a group of thematic measures appropriate to the CPP’s remit and scope of control and influence in order to inform ongoing development of the Action Plan. These actions correspond with steps 2-4 of the 6 step risk assessment process used by Climate Ready Clyde and subsequent regional adaptation programmes (summarised at the end of this document). Opportunity Areas for Action Infrastructure Infrastructure is a primary concern in Argyll and Bute, with the length and vulnerability of the transport network to flooding, landslides and coastal impacts attracting comment from nearly all stakeholder and community meetings. The region’s geography also means that marine and air transport links are major considerations in addition to road and rail.
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Page 34 of 39 There is less consensus among stakeholder on the extent to which this is a concern for the Community Planning Partnership as distinct to the specific groups within the CPP with expertise and responsibility for transport infrastructure and links with flood resilience planning. There is more consensus among stakeholders on the CPP’s role in addressing demand and impacts upon transport infrastructure including propensity to travel and potential to influence travel choices to reduce reliance on private cars, noting that 30% of households in Argyll and Bute do not have a car. Communications and grid infrastructure are also major concerns: enhancing grid capacity is a key elements of decarbonising both transport and housing as well as enabling further renewable energy developments in the region which is seen as a key economic and climate opportunity. Addressing digital exclusion is a priority for Argyll and Bute and the resilience of telecommunications links in the face of climate change was a repeated theme in stakeholder meetings, including some concerns over the switchover from physical copper-based landlines to internet-based services. Policy Influence “Policy influence” covers areas that are not within the CPP’s ability to control but where the collective voice of the CPP may seek to inform or influence policy. This is seen as an important role for the CPP by many, with a common perception that many climate-related policies are more suited to densely populated and predominantly urban areas rather than to Argyll and Bute’s distinctive geography and population. Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Community wealth building is seen as a major climate change opportunity including in terms of Multiple stakeholders commented on the potential for the CPP’s combined procurement activity to support community wealth building in addition to potentially reducing duplication and transport impacts. Procurement is a tightly regulated area and all CPP budgets are under pressure, so there is a need to balance climate change considerations alongside affordability, availability value for money, fitness for purpose and other best value considerations. This is an area that falls within Scope 3 emissions, and as such likely to be subject to increasing reporting requirements. Several CPP partners have provided instances where local providers have been able to deliver in preference to large providers from outside the region, enabling money to stay within the region and supporting local employment and skills at the same time as delivering best value. Supplier engagement programmes have been seen as a valuable tool and an area where there are further opportunities for reducing economic leakage and shortening elements of some supply chains. Risk/Economic Assessment Several CPP partners are at similar stages of starting climate adaptation and associated risk assessment processes. Stakeholders have indicated the potential value in working together on this as well as sharing existing information, and several have also emphasised the importance of factoring economic assessments. Examples of risk and economic assessments and methodologies from Highland Adapts and Climate Ready South East Scotland are included in the appendices.
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Page 35 of 39 Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training The new Scottish National Adaptation Plan emphasises the need to support people and communities most vulnerable to climate impacts and building resilient, healthy, and equitable places, including rural, island and coastal communities. The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction25 defines resilience as “The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects of a hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions.” As the group of organisations and community representatives working together to achieve improvements across Argyll and Bute in ways which promote prevention, reduce inequalities and build community capacity, the CPP is strongly placed to work in multiple ways to develop overall resilience in the community in addition to measures more specific to climate change. There are also opportunities to integrate this with place planning in addition to developing and delivering resilience training at multiple levels across the region, such as the online climate resilience training currently being piloted by the Argyll & Bute Community Action Network. Carbon Literacy training is more well established and recognised and this in addition to enhancing individuals’ empowerment and agency with regard to climate change can also support employability. Skills Development Skills development and education is seen as one of the most important areas to address the trend to a declining and ageing population in Argyll and Bute as well as to strengthening the economy and community wellbeing. In the context of climate change, this is further important through the role of skills development in supporting a just transition to a lower carbon and more resilient economy. Skills development, including education, is presented separately to resilience and carbon literacy training on the basis that resilience and carbon literacy training are specific and well defined exercises as distinct to the much broader range of activity around skills development and education across Argyll and Bute. Other When presenting the set of proposed areas of action to the CPP Full Partnership for attendees to indicate their priorities, some respondents indicated “other”: subsequent discussion with these respondents indicated that this was from desired actions that cut across multiples of these areas of activity rather than fitting into any one category. 25 UNDRR - Homepage | UNDRR
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Page 36 of 39 Monitoring, Reporting and Evaluation Existing Public Body Climate Duty reporting requirements are grouped by: • Profile • Governance • Emissions & Projects • Adaptation • Procurement • Validation • Wider Influence Feedback from meetings with partners to date has been supportive of an approach based as much as possible around these requirements, such that existing activity can be captured and new projects brought within the same framework wherever possible. This has the potential to offer a basic level of monitoring not only of the activity of public sector partners but also through the “Wider Influence” section where they in turn can have wider influence through partnership or client working. This would still require a change in the ways in which bodies approach Public Body Duty reporting as historically organisations across Scotland have provided reports with high levels of detail on areas such as emissions but less on wider influence, so even though this indicative approach seeks to reduce extra reporting as much as possible there would still be resource implications associated. The Scottish Government provided an update on Local Authority Climate Change Plans on 10 September 2024, setting out the expected content of Local Authority (LA) Climate Change Plans (CCPs). A summary of this is overleaf. The guidance is in draft form at present and it is not yet known to what extent the same requirements will subsequently apply to other bodies with Climate Change Public Body Duty reporting duties. Because the Argyll & Bute Climate Change Strategy is not a statutory requirement, it cannot place reporting or other duties upon the CPP partners and the Climate Change Public Body Duty reporting requirements provide a means by which the partners’ climate activity can be monitored and reported. Funding for Argyll & Bute Climate Action runs until October 2025 meaning that there is no dedicated resource for monitoring and reporting of the strategy as a whole after October 2025. The Sustainable Scotland Network does a national level assessment of the Public Body Duty reports, typically made available in May-June after individual bodies’ reports are submitted at the end of the calendar year. At present there is no provision for regional-level assessment by SSN or another external body although this is a recognised issue. There may be some potential for Sniffer/Adaptation Scotland to provide some assistance with evaluation of the adaptation components of ACPA beyond the funded period but this would not replace the need for ongoing monitoring and reporting. The Climate Change Working Group is being asked to consider whether volunteers from some of the partners’ bodies would assist with a review of the spreadsheet used for the gap analysis as a potential basic reporting template to inform overall progress beyond the funded period in the
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Page 37 of 39 expectation that national guidance comparable to the detail of the forthcoming SCIS guidance to local authorities on area-wide emissions will be forthcoming in future. This would entail a resource requirement to identify an individual and make time available to review the partners’ published reports and SSN national assessment, and present this to the Climate Change Working Group autumn meeting. Two days is suggested but the volunteer request above would be asked to consider this time expectation as part of their review.
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Page 38 of 39 Further Information/Contact For further information, contact Andy Macpherson Climate Change Project Officer Argyll Countryside Trust (for Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership) andy@act-now.org.uk https://www.act-now.org.uk/cpp 07398668987