Agenda reports pack
Argyll and Bute Council · 12 February 2025
Back to Oban Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group — 12 February 2025 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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Kilmory, Lochgilphead, PA31 8RT Tel: 01546 602127 Fax: 01546 604435 DX 599700 LOCHGILPHEAD 5 February 2025 NOTICE OF MEETING A meeting of the OBAN LORN & THE ISLES COMMUNITY PLANNING GROUP will be held in the ON A HYBRID BASIS AT THE MCCAIG SUITE, CORRAN HALLS, OBAN AND ON MICROSOFT TEAMS on WEDNESDAY, 12 FEBRUARY 2025 at 2:00 PM, which you are requested to attend. Douglas Hendry Executive Director BUSINESS 1. WELCOME AND APOLOGIES 2. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST 3. MINUTES (a) Oban, Lorn and the Isles Community Planning Group 13 November 2024 (Pages 5 - 14) 4. AREA COMMUNITY PLANNING GROUP GOVERNANCE ARRANGEMENTS IN ARGYLL AND BUTE (Pages 15 - 26) Report by Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council 5. COMMUNITY PLANNING PARTNERSHIP MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE MEETING (Pages 27 - 30) Report by Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council 6. ASPIRING PLACES - COMMUNITY PROJECTS IN ARGYLL AND BUTE (Pages 31 - 40) Presentation by Stuart Green, Corporate Support Manager, Argyll and Bute Council Public Document Pack
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7. ALI-ENERGY (Pages 41 - 42) Report by Dr Lynda Mitchell, ALIenergy 8. TRANSPORT SCOTLAND (a) Transport Scotland Partner Update (Pages 43 - 46) Report by Ian Woodcock, Transport Scotland (b) A83 Rest and Be Thankful Operational and Landslip Management (Pages 47 - 52) Presentation by Ian Woodcock, Transport Scotland 9. FERRY CONSULTATION (Pages 53 - 106) Report by Kelly McKellar, Project Manager, Roads and Infrastructure 10. PARTNERS UPDATE (a) Police Scotland (Pages 107 - 112) (b) Scottish Fire and Rescue (Pages 113 - 118) (c) Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership Public Health Update (Pages 119 - 124) (d) Crossroads Update (Pages 125 - 126) (e) Living Well Network Update (Pages 127 - 128) (f) Argyll and Bute TSI (Pages 129 - 130) (g) UHI Argyll (Pages 131 - 132) (h) Opportunity for Verbal Updates 11. CLIMATE CHANGE (a) Argyll and Bute Climate Action: Developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute (Pages 133 - 188) Report by Andy MacPherson, Climate Change Project Manager, Argyll and the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust (b) Opportunity for Verbal Updates on community based initiatives 12. COMMUNITY FOCUS (a) Oban Lorn Rugby Club Development Plans Presentation by Ronald Gordon, Oban Lorn Rugby Club 13. DATE OF NEXT MEETING - WEDNESDAY, 14 MAY 2025
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Oban Lorn & the Isles Community Planning Group Colin Buchanan (Chair) Councillor Julie McKenzie (Vice-Chair) Contact: Stuart McLean, Committee Manager - 01436 658717 Karen Campbell, Senior Committee Assistant - 01631 567855
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MINUTES of MEETING of OBAN LORN & THE ISLES COMMUNITY PLANNING GROUP held ON A HYBRID BASIS AT OBAN COMMUNITY FIRE STATION, SOROBA ROAD, OBAN, PA34 4SB AND ON MICROSOFT TEAMS on WEDNESDAY, 13 NOVEMBER 2024 Present: Colin Buchanan (Chair) Stuart McLean, Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council Councillor Kieron Green, Argyll and Bute Council Councillor Amanda Hampsey, Argyll and Bute Council Councillor Willie Hume, Argyll and Bute Council Councillor Andrew Kain, Argyll and Bute Council Councillor Luna Martin, Argyll and Bute Council Robert Taylor, Scottish Fire and Rescue Maureen Evans, Community Learning Services, Live Argyll Sarah Peacock, Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership Seonaid Cameron, ACHA Jim Tolmie, Oban District Access Panel Catriona Petit, Hope Kitchen Duncan Martin, Oban Community Council Sue Barnard, Oban Community Council Kirsty McLuckie, Community Development, Argyll and Bute Council Carol Flett, Co-Ordinator, Living Well Network Petra Pearce, Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface Mary Braithwaite, Luing Community Council Jane Metcalf, Coll Community Council Becky Hothersall, The Poverty Alliance Attending: Susan Donnelly, Corporate Resilience Manager, Argyll and Bute Council Belinda Ruthven, Resilience Officer, Argyll and Bute Council Iain MacInnes, Strategic Transportation Policy Officer, Argyll and Bute Council Luke Frederick Horner, Digital and Projects Support Officer 1. WELCOME AND APOLOGIES The Chair welcomed everyone to the meeting, and thanked Robert Taylor, Scottish Fire and Rescue for hosting the meeting. Apologies for absence were intimated on behalf of: Susan MacRae, Skills Development Scotland Joan Best, Crossroads Sgt Matt Shaw, Police Scotland John McLuckie, Argyll and Bute Council Andy MacPherson, Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust Page 5 Agenda Item 3a
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Ian Woodcock, Transport Scotland Councillor Julie McKenzie, Argyll and Bute Council Councillor Jim Lynch, Argyll and Bute Council 2. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST There were no declarations of interest intimated. 3. MINUTES (a) Oban, Lorn and the Isles Community Planning Group 14 August 2024 The Minute of the Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group meeting held on Wednesday 14 August 2024 was approved as a correct record. 4. GOVERNANCE (a) Appointment of Vice Chair to the Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group The Group gave consideration to a report providing information on the role of Vice-Chair of the Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group. The Committee Manager advised that he had received an intimation of interest from Councillor Julie McKenzie in this position and invited nominations from Partners. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group unanimously agreed to appoint Councillor Julie McKenzie as Vice-Chair, subject to her acceptance of this position. (Reference: Report by Committee Manager, dated 13 November submitted) 5. COMMUNITY PLANNING PARTNERSHIP FULL PARTNERSHIP MEETING The Group gave consideration to a report which outlined matters discussed during the Community Planning Partnership (CPP) Full Partnership meeting held on 16 September 2024. The report provided information on the Argyll and Bute Employability Partnership Delivery Plan for 2022-25; the CPP initiative to develop a Climate Change Strategy and Framework; the history of Community Wealth Building within the Community Planning Partnership; the key priorities for the new Regional Transport Strategy for the development of transport in the region over the next 20 years; the current housing emergency and the action plan agreed in June 2024 and the proposed Population Health Framework for Scotland which is to be adopted by the Scottish Government, CoSLA, Public Health Scotland and Health Boards. Decision Page 6
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The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group noted the contents of the report. (Reference: Report by Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council, dated 5 November 2024, submitted) 6. ARGYLL AND BUTE HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE PARTNERSHIP (a) Partner Update - Public Health Consideration was given to a public health update from Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership’s Public Health Team on the ongoing wellbeing and prevention activities overseen and delivered by them in Argyll and Bute. The update provided information on the work of the Smoking Cessation Advisers who have been promoting the Stoptober Campaign by raising awareness of the service; the continued work to increase awareness of the five adult screening programmes; the work of the Living Well Networks and the community events held by them; the launch of Year 5 of the Living Well Grants; The Argyll and Bute Joint Strategic Needs Assessment which will be published in November and the Art of Hosting method used to engage with communities. The report also provided information on alcohol and drug prevention and early intervention programmes; work commissioned by Scottish Families Affected by Alcohol and Drugs; ongoing work to support the recovery community in Argyll and Bute and the engagement being taken forward by the Alcohol and Drugs Partnership Support team. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by Health Improvement Senior, Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership and Alcohol and Drug Partnership Coordinator, Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership, dated October 2024, submitted) (b) Public Health Annual Reports: What does the work of the Argyll and Bute Alcohol and Drug Partnership and Public Health mean for Community Planning? The Group gave consideration to a presentation from Sarah Peacock, Health Improvement Senior, Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership which provided information on the Argyll and Bute Alcohol and Drug Partnership. The presentation highlighted that the mission of the Partnership is to work with and for communities and organisations in Argyll and Bute to prioritise equality, diversity and health and wellbeing and foster environments and partnerships to nurture and support all. Sarah also outlined the Partnerships vision for a thriving Argyll and Bute where everyone has the opportunity to live well in vibrant, flourishing Page 7
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communities. Sarah asked the Group for feedback on how they would like to receive information on the Partnerships work and how they would want to be involved with the work of the Public Health Team. It was noted that NHS Highland Annual Review Meeting, is due to be held on Tuesday, 19th November in the Council Offices in Lochgilphead, this meeting is open to the public. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group: 1. noted the information provided; and 2. agreed to provide feedback on the questions asked, to the Health Improvement Senior following the meeting. (Reference: Presentation by Health Improvement Senior, Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership) 7. COMMUNITY RESILIENCE Consideration was given to a presentation from Susan Donnelly, Corporate Resilience Manager from Argyll and Bute Council in relation to Community Resilience in Argyll and Bute. The presentation highlighted the importance of communities and individuals harnessing resources and expertise to prepare, respond and recover from emergencies, in a way that complements the work of emergency responders. The presentation also provided information in relation to why Community Resilience is so important, including details of potential risks and statutory sites; how Community Resilience is managed in Argyll and Bute; recent and future workstreams of the Resilience team and ongoing activity across the Oban, Lorn and the Isles area. The presentation also provided details on how Partners could engage with Argyll and Bute Council in achieving resilient communities across Argyll and Bute and that there is a Resilience Fund available to Community Councils to apply to for assistance:- https://funding.idoxopen4community.co.uk/argyllbute/News/View/GRUKBP3!N79817 Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Presentation by Corporate Resilience Manager, Argyll and Bute Council and Resilience Officer, Argyll and Bute Council) 8. TELECARE AND BROADBAND UPDATE Consideration was given to a presentation regarding the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) from the Strategic Transportation Policy Officer and Digital and Page 8
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Projects Support Officer, Argyll and Bute Council. The presentation provided information on the UK Government Guidance which highlighted that there would still be an option for a ‘landline only’ service as the Communications Act (2003) means all consumers in the UK will have access to a landline service should they choose to do so. Mr Frederick Horner advised that communication providers must not undertake any non-voluntary migration until they have confidence and that they are taking all possible steps to protect vulnerable people throughout the migration process, adding that there have been 4 groups categorised as vulnerable, which are people with visual impairments, hearing impairments, registered disabled or a telecare user. Mr Frederick Horner also advised that should people be categorised as vulnerable then they should contact their provider to advise them of this. It was highlighted that BT are allowing people to retain the same number and providing it for the same cost and for most customers the switch over would be as simple as connecting their phone handset to a router rather than a phone socket on the wall and that customers who don’t have or want broadband will be moved to a new ‘dedicated landline service’. The Group highlighted there concern in relation to the PSTN switch off, particularly for Island users. Mr MacInnes advised that battery back-up units would be provided for those considered ‘vulnerable’ in areas with limited signal and that further mitigation would be explored. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Presentation by Strategic Transportation Policy Officer and Digital and Projects Support Officer, Argyll and Bute Council) 9. PARTNERS UPDATE (a) Police Scotland Update Consideration was given to a report from Police Scotland which provided information on the ongoing work of the Service and information on areas including serious and organised crime; acquisitive crime, including fraud; road safety and road crime; violent crime; public protection. The report also provided information on the appointment of a new Area Commander and the results of a Road Policing Safety Day of Action on 22nd August, which took place in Taynuilt. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by Police Scotland, submitted) Page 9
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(b) Scottish Fire and Rescue Update The Group gave consideration to a report highlighting the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service’s (SFRS) FQ2 review of local performance across Oban, Lorn and the Isles for the period 2024-25. The report included information on the local firefighter training plan; incidents during this period; unwanted fire alarm signals; road and water safety campaigns; community engagement activities; East and West Dunbartonshire and Argyll and Bute Local Senior Officer Activities; and home fire safety. Robert Taylor advised that the uptake of Home Fire Risk Assessments with the Oban, Lorn and the Isles was low and invited Partners to encourage service users to request a risk assessment be undertaken within their homes. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by Scottish Fire and Rescue Service, submitted) (c) Living Well Network Update The Group considered the report which highlighted a list of Third Sector Groups and Support Groups contact details, who work within the Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area. The Living Well Network Co-Ordinator invited partners to share this list with their service users to enable this information to reach as many people in the communities, as possible. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by Living Well Network, submitted) (d) Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface Update Consideration was given to an update from Argyll and Bute TSI. The update provided information on policy activity; local strategic partnerships; Community Wealth Building progress; Internal matters, contracts, sector support and strategic action plan delivery; the Communities Mental Health and Wellbeing Fund Year 4 grant; the continued support given to the Argyll and Bute Climate Action Network and the work of the Wellbeing Development Manager. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by Argyll and Bute TSI, submitted) Page 10
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(e) Transport Scotland Update The Group gave consideration to an update highlighting the improvement works and maintenance undertaken by Transport Scotland within the locality. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Report by Transport Scotland, submitted) (f) Opportunity for Verbal Updates Hope Kitchen Catriona Petit advised the Group that Hope Kitchen in partnership with other charities had won the Scottish Power Innovation Award in respect of the Re-Store shop that opened Oban. This is a national award with many other nominees, so it was a wonderful achievement to be recognised. Committee Manager Update The Committee Manager highlighted that the Governance Arrangements of the Group would be considered at the next meeting, including the membership, advising that the Membership is drawn from public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships operating within the Oban, Lorn and the Isles area. Stuart encouraged partners to refer any individuals or groups who may be interested to contact him regarding their inclusion within the membership. Stuart also advised on the availability of The John of Lorn Bequest and Coals for the Poor, Oban which are open to residents of Oban with successful individual applicants receiving £50, while those that are applying on behalf of their family receiving £100. Stuart added that applications would only be considered if applicants are in receipt of a qualifying benefit and that applications are evaluated quarterly. 10. THE POVERTY ALLIANCE - TAKING ACTION ON RURAL POVERTY Consideration was given to a presentation from Becky Hothersall from The Poverty Alliance on their Taking Action on Rural Poverty project. It was highlighted that the 3- year project is taking a collaborative approach to develop new ways of addressing the rural cost of living in Argyll and Bute and Aberdeenshire, as income based measures do not take account of the higher cost of living in rural and Island Scotland, which is between 15% to 30% higher than urban areas of the UK. Becky advised that the Alliance aims to develop practical, local measures aimed at reducing the rural premium. The presentation also provided information on the ongoing work of the Alliance which included establishing a citizen’s panel of 13 people from across Argyll and Page 11
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Bute and associated next steps; support offered to rural organisations and how to join them and be part of Scotland’s anti-poverty movement. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group noted the information provided. (Reference: Presentation by Development Officer, The Poverty Alliance, submitted) 11. CLIMATE CHANGE (a) Argyll and Bute Climate Action: developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute Consideration was given to a report providing an update on the Community Planning Partnership’s Argyll and Bute Climate Action Project: Developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. It was noted that the Project Manager was seeking feedback from Partners on the draft Strategy and Action Plan, prior to submitting a finalised version to the upcoming Community Planning Partnership Management Committee meeting in December 2024. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group: 1. noted the approach and status of the project outlined in the report; and 2. agreed to provide comments and feedback to the Project Manager (andy@act-now.org.uk) following the meeting. (Reference: Report by Climate Change Project Manager, Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust, dated 28 October 2024, submitted) (b) Opportunity for Verbal Updates on Community Based Initiatives Oban Flooding Duncan Martin, Oban Community Council, raised concerns over the increase of severe weather caused by Climate Change specifically flooding. The Committee Manager referred Mr Martin to a report considered by the Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee in June 2024 that proposed all funding opportunities be explored including lobbying the Scottish Government to seek to secure funding to implement flood prevention works in Oban. Decision The Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group agreed to request that the Infrastructure Design Manager, Argyll and Bute Council, attend a future meeting to offer an update on short, medium and long term Page 12
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flooding mitigation measures. Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Robert Taylor, Scottish Fire and Rescue, advised that the Service is responding to increased number of climate change related emergencies such as wildfires and flooding. To help the Service respond to such emergencies new equipment has been purchased. Climate Café Catriona Petit, Hope Kitchen, advised that the Oban Climate Café meets each month in St Johns Church or Hope Kitchen and encouraged all interested Partners to contact her for further details. 12. DATE OF NEXT MEETING The Group noted that the next meeting of the Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group would take place on the afternoon of Wednesday 12 February 2025 on Micro-Soft Teams and in the McCaig Suite, Corran Halls, Oban. Page 13
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Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group 12 February 2025 Area Community Planning Group Governance Arrangements Summary The report asks the Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group to review the current Terms of Reference, the membership of the Group and also asks members to note the dates for meetings up until May 2026. 1. Purpose 1.1 The purpose of this report is to confirm the governance arrangements of the Oban, Lorn and the Isles (Area CPG) specifically the Terms of Reference, membership and note future meeting dates. 2. Recommendations 2.1 Area CPG members are requested to: • Consider and adopt the Terms of Reference submitted in this report (Appendix 1) and to agree that these be reviewed on an annual basis to ensure their ongoing currency and appropriateness for the work of the Area CPG as it develops over time. • Consider and agree the membership of the group as attached (Appendix 2) and to agree that the membership of the group be reviewed on an annual basis to ensure currency and appropriateness for the work of the group as it develops over time. • To note the future meeting dates submitted in this report. 3. Detail Page 15 Agenda Item 4
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3.1 The Area CPG Terms of Reference were last reviewed and agreed in February 2024. An updated version, which has been amended to reflect some changes in language and terminology, is attached at Appendix 1. 3.2 The membership of the Area CPG was last reviewed in February 2024. The Area CPG are asked to consider whether any changes should be made to the membership, details of which are attached at Appendix 2. 3.3 The membership will be reviewed on an annual basis to ensure currency and appropriateness for the work of the group as it develops over time, however there is provision for additional organisations to join the group at any stage to accommodate local circumstances. 3.4 Historically meeting dates for Area Community Planning Groups are scheduled approximately half way between the programmed meetings of the Community Planning Partnership Management Committees to enable effective and timeous reporting of matters to that committee. Members are therefore asked to note that the meeting dates for the Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area CPG for 2025/26 will be:- • Wednesday 14 May 2025 • Wednesday 13 August 2025 • Wednesday 12 November 2025 • Wednesday 11 February 2026 • Wednesday 13 May 2026 4. Conclusion 4.1 Given the development of Local Action Plans and the future focus of the work of Area Community Planning Groups the meeting is asked to review and agree the attached Terms of Reference and the current membership. 5. SOA Outcomes Not applicable. The report relates to the administration of the Area CPG. For further information please contact: Stuart McLean, Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council Tel 01436 658 717 Appendix 1 – Terms of Reference Appendix 2 – Membership list Page 16
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 1 Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Terms of Reference: Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group The Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group is a sub group of, and report to, the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership’s Management Committee. It is an unincorporated partnership of agencies and organisations with membership drawn from the public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships that have an interest in Oban, Lorn & the Isles. Purpose Argyll and Bute is a large and diverse area. Communities inevitably have different issues even within the overall umbrella of a community plan for the whole area. Area Community Planning Groups are the vehicle to ensure that there is effective community planning delivery, as set out in the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015, at a local level by: • Contributing to the oversight role of the whole partnership by highlighting issues of a partnership nature that cannot be resolved locally through the Area Community Planning Group, to the Community Planning Partnership Management Committee. • Acting on behalf of the Community Planning Partnership via its Management Committee to oversee the implementation of Area Community Planning Action Plans (known as ‘locality plans’ within the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015) • Acting on behalf of the community to ensure that local concerns and priorities are highlighted to the Community Planning Partnership’s Management Committee. Role The role of the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group is to: • Oversee the development and implementation of the Area Community Planning Action Plan for Oban, Lorn & the Isles • Encourage effective working across community planning partners at an area level • Act as a conduit to ensure that local priorities are met and local issues addressed through partnership working Remit The Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group has the authority to: • Contribute to the development of an Area Community Planning Action Plan for Oban, Lorn & the Isles. • Monitor progress of the Area Community Planning Action Plan for Oban, Lorn & the Isles. Page 17
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 2 • Provide the scrutiny role for the Community Planning Partnership within Oban, Lorn & the Isles considering regular performance monitoring reports and providing information to the Management Committee by submitting written reports on challenges that cannot be resolved locally; where these challenges relate to partnership working and not single agencies. A representative of a community group or statutory body or business that is not a member of the group may also attend a meeting with prior agreement from the Chair to provide additional information should a specific issue of concern to the group be scheduled as an agenda item • Form short term working groups to undertake defined pieces of work as required by the group • Engage with communities within Oban, Lorn & the Isles to understand their needs. • Inform and consult on issues relating to Community Planning at an area level • Contribute to a Community Planning annual report for Argyll and Bute on progress on the agreed outcomes and best practice in partnership working. Short Term Working Groups Short Term Working Groups initiated by the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group must: • Be approved at a meeting of the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group and its purpose recorded in the minute of the meeting , with clarity on the objective and output of the group and the start and end date of the work. • Have a named member of the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group acting as lead officer for the group • Have a list of members of the group agreed at inception • Have an appropriate source of administrative support identified and agreed at inception • Where relevant have an appropriate funding package identified at inception and a named member of the short term working group undertaking financial responsibility for the initiative • Provide regular reports of activity and progress to the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group; and in updates to the Management Committee • Any changes to the above must be approved by the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group and recorded in the minute of the meeting Equal Opportunities and Fairer Scotland Duty The Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group will ensure that equal opportunities are considered in each of their remitted activities, any expected negative impacts are mitigated and promotion of equal opportunities is central to its ongoing activities. In doing so the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group will consider the responsibilities placed on it by The Fairer Scotland Duty. This duty places a legal responsibility on particular public bodies in Scotland to pay due regard to (actively consider) how they can reduce inequalities of outcome, caused by socio-economic disadvantage, when making strategic decisions. Criteria for Membership Page 18
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 3 • Membership is drawn from public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships operating within the Oban, Lorn & the Isles area. • Membership is open to all public sector, third sector, private sector, community organisations and partnerships operating within the Oban, Lorn & the Isles area with an interest in at least one of the outcomes identified in the Outcomes Improvement Plan. • Organisations can self-nominate, be invited to join or have a statutory obligation to participate. • In order to ensure democratic accountability, the Chair and Vice Chair from the Argyll and Bute Council Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Committee and one other Elected Member from an Argyll and Bute Council Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Committee Ward not already represented by the Chair or Vice Chair will sit as members of the group. • In order to ensure democratic accountability, community councils situated with in the Oban, Lorn & the Isles area will sit as a member of the group. Subject to local needs, this may be individual community councils, or by way of a caucus arrangement agreed by the community councils situated within the Oban, Lorn & the Isles area, or alternatively one community council representing all of the community councils on a rotational basis. The community council undertaking this role will be nominated by the other community councils within the area on an annual basis or more frequently if agreed locally. • In order to comply with legislation which governs community planning in Scotland, some organisations have a statutory obligation to participate in community planning. The organisation will nominate the most appropriate person within their organisation to sit as a member of the group where relevant. • In order to reflect the needs of the community and range of activities covered by the Area Community Planning Action Plan, other organisations and partnerships operating within the local area are also able to sit as members of the group. • In order to obtain a balanced representation of the above and to ensure a community focussed approach, a ratio of no more than 50% public sector membership should be maintained throughout the lifetime of the group. • The representatives ought to be able to speak on behalf of their organisation and where appropriate commit funding and other resources to local partnership activity. Membership should reflect the needs of the community and can therefore change subject to approval by a simple majority vote of the other members of the group. Role of Members Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group members have the following responsibilities: • To consistently attend the scheduled Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group meetings. (Consistency in attendance by members is necessary to build momentum and progress the activities of the group) • Appoint a substitute to attend meetings on their behalf if they are unable to attend. • To communicate information relating to the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group with other members and officers within their own organisation and other organisations operating within the area of activity they represent. • To communicate information relating to their organisations area of activity to other members of the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group at meetings. Page 19
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 4 • To raise community planning related issues (that is issues related to Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership’s Local Outcomes Improvement Plan) on behalf of the community at Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group meetings. • To contribute to the development, ongoing monitoring and review of the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Action Plan. • To participate in short term working groups as required. Meetings Chair • The Chair and Vice Chair of the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group will be elected by the members of the group and will be appointed for a period of two years. • The outgoing Chair and Vice Chair can stand for re-election at the end of the two year period. • However, no one person can serve in the role of Chair or Vice Chair for more than two consecutive two year periods • Should either the Chair or Vice Chair resign their position during their term of office, the office bearer must either notify the group in person at a scheduled Area Community Planning Group meeting or contact the Chair in writing advising formally of their intention to stand down. Members will be advised of the resignation timeously and an election to fill the vacant post will be conducted at the next scheduled Area Community Planning Group meeting • Nominations for the Chair and Vice Chair positions will be proposed and seconded by Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group members. Each member will have one vote and a simple majority vote will determine the outcome of the election process. • The elected Chair, or in their absence, the Vice-Chair shall preside over the meeting. If both are absent, partners will choose a member from the floor to preside. • Members should respect the authority of the Chair who will decide matters of order, competency, relevancy and urgency. Quorum • The quorum for a meeting will be 5. • If a quorum is not present within 10 minutes of the scheduled start of a meeting or if at any point after a meeting has commenced attendance falls below the quorum the meeting will be declared inquorate. • If a quorum is not present, at the Chairperson’s / Vice-Chairperson’s discretion, the meeting shall proceed and any decisions taken will be homologated at the next meeting. • For purposes of the quorum, participation of partners by video-conferencing or telephone conference links will be considered as present. Frequency of Meetings • The Area Community Planning Groups of the CPP will normally meet once each quarter (4 times each year) • These meetings will normally be held in February, May, August and November. Page 20
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 5 • Where business requires, further meetings can be called with agreement of the Chair subject to the required notice being given. Conduct of Meetings • Meetings of the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group will be held in public. • Observers can only participate in discussion with the agreement of Chair. • Members must declare any conflict of interests at the start of a meeting and take no part in the consideration of the relevant item. • Observers wishing to participate in discussion must declare any interest in the subject under discussion. • All meetings will be minuted and a minute made available through the Council’s website and available from a link through the Community Planning Partnership website. • Meetings of the Area Community Planning Groups will be conducted in accordance with the lead partner‘s (Argyll and Bute Council) standing orders for meetings subject to any necessary changes as set out above (mutatis mutandis) Decision making • All members of the group have equal status • Each member has one vote • The Chair retains the casting vote • All decisions must be clearly minuted with a brief summary of the discussion and reason for decision recorded as well as the outcome • The minutes should clearly record who or whatever organisation is responsible for action • Observers and persons attending the meeting in an advisory capacity may provide information but are not part of the decision making process and are not able to participate in a vote Accountability The Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group is an integral part of community planning in Argyll and Bute and is accountable to the following bodies: • Full Community Planning Partnership via the Management Committee • Community within its local area Support The Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group will be supported by: • A Lead Officer to facilitate and promote the smooth operation of the group and work closely with group members to ensure a supportive structure, which responds to the needs of the members in addressing issues. • Administrative support, organising meetings, taking minutes and associated administrative support will be provided by Argyll and Bute Council, Governance & Law. • A Local Community Development Officer will have a key role, working in partnership with organisations in the support of community groups, organisations and individuals, Page 21
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 6 particularly those who do not traditionally engage in community issues, to participate in local community planning. Issue of Papers • The agenda and papers for the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group will normally be issued 7 days prior to the date of the meeting. • The Chair can agree to accept late papers. • The draft agenda detail will normally be circulated four weeks in advance to allow members to propose items for inclusion • The agenda and papers will be available via the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership website and will be published on the Argyll and Bute Council website. Communications The Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group is encouraged to share any best practice in partnership working locally with the wider Community Planning Partnership. Case studies and examples of partnership working making a difference can be sent to cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk to be shared and promoted. For example this may be through the regular CPP e-Bulletin. The CPP e-Bulletin is available to members of the Area Community Planning Groups and sign up is via cppadmin@argyll-bute.gov.uk. Paper copies can be made available and are downloadable from the webpage. Winding Up The Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group is a sub group of the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership. • If the Argyll and Bute Community Partnership is dissolved, the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group will cease to exist by default • If a review of Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership delivery structure should recommend that Area Community Planning Groups should be dissolved to facilitate a new delivery structure, the decision whether or not to wind up the group will be made by the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership following consultation with the Area Community Planning Groups and Argyll and Bute Council as lead partner for community planning within the area. • Area Community Planning Group members may initiate a proposed wind up of the group by submitting a report outlining the reasons why it was felt the group was no longer required to the Management Committee in the first instance. The decision whether or not to wind up the group will be made by the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership following consultation with Argyll and Bute Council as lead partner for community planning within the area Approved and adopted at the Oban, Lorn & the Isles Area Community Planning Group meeting held on 11 March 2015 Amended March 2015 to reflect a change in the meeting cycle Amended March 2016 to clarify procedure if either the Chair or Vice Chair resigns during their term of office and amend number of days meeting papers are to be circulated prior to meeting date Page 22
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Terms of Reference Version 1.8 February 24 Page 7 Amended February 2017 to clarify procedure if outgoing office bearer wishes to stand for re- election. Amended February 2019 to clarify terms in respect of the Local Outcome Improvement Plan / Area Community Planning Action Plan. Amended February 2021 to clarify language and terminology and to include reference to Fairer Scotland Duty. Amended February 2022 to clarify language and terminology. Amended February 2023 to clarify language and terminology. Amended February 2024 to clarify language and terminology, and to update the default media for the CPP e-bulletin. February 2025 no changes recorded. Page 23
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Appendix 2 Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Groups Membership (incorporating changes in local communities since February 2024). Organisation Name Argyll and Bute Council Cllr J McKenzie Cllr K Green Community Councils Mull Iona Coll Tiree Oban Glenorchy & Innishail Taynuilt Avich & Kilchrenan Luing Kilninver & Kilmelford Seil & Easdale Kilmore & Kilbride Dunbeg Lismore Appin Connel Ardchattan Police Scotland Chief Inspector Simon Shanks Inspector Matthew Shaw Scottish Fire and Rescue John Sweeney Health & Social Care Partnership (OLI) Morven Gemmill ACHA Michelle Mundie West Highland Housing Association Brett Sadler Highlands & Islands Enterprise Catriona McKnight/Morag Goodfellow Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface Kirsteen Murray/Katrina Sayer Living Well Networks Carol Flett BIDS4Oban Andrew Spence Yvonne MacLean Scottish Federation for Small Businesses Janet Waterworth Argyll & Isles Strategic Tourism Partnership Carron Tobin Argyll College Theresa Bain (Developing the Young Workforce) Cal Mac Development Coll Hope Kitchen Catriona Petit Disability Forum & Access Panel Ken Johnson Oban Tourism Linda Battison Tiree Trust Crossroads Joan Best North Argyll Carers Joan Best Oban Youth Forum Maureen Evans Oban Youth Cafe Jacqui Buchanan Oban Communities Trust/Rockfield Eleanor McKinnon TSI Petra Pearce Oban High School Aileen Jackson Skills Development Scotland Susan MacRae OCHDA Robert Kincaid Dunbeg Woodlands Group Laura Corbe Page 25
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MECOPP Carers Centre Ali Martin Carr Gomm Becs Barker & Sarah Chapman Time for Change Angela Anderson Isle of Luing Community Trust Colin Buchanan John Murray West Coast Motors Argyll and Bute Climate Action Network (ABCAN) Andy MacPherson Family Mediation Argyll and Bute Tanya MacDougall Oban High School Pupil Parliament Lucy Sumsion National Farmers Union Page 26
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Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group 12 February 2025 Community Planning Partnership Management Committee Meeting This briefing relates to the meeting of the Community Planning Partnership (CPP) Management Committee meeting which was held on 6 December 2024. The briefing is for noting and relevant discussion. Summary HIGHLIGHTS Area Community Planning Group (ACPG) Updates Stuart McLean, Argyll and Bute Council, provided an overview of the ACPG reports from the meetings held in April/May, August and November. Stuart thanked the new office bearers that have taken up appointments – Gill Simpson as Vice Chair of Helensburgh and Lomond ACPG, Colin Buchanan as Chair and Julie MacKenzie as Vice Chair of Oban, Lorn and the Isles ACPG and Anne Horn as Chair of Mid-Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands ACPG. Stuart also raised the concerns of the Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands ACPG regarding the negative impacts to local people and businesses due to repeated closures of the A83. Stuart advised that Iain Woodcock, Transport Scotland, had attended the Bute and Cowal, Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands and Helensburgh and Lomond ACPGs to give updates on the ongoing traffic management arrangements on the A83 and improvements to the Old Military Road. The Management Committee noted the concerns raised by the Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands ACPG and hoped that any further frustrations would be alleviated by the details provided by Mr Woodcock. The Management Committee met on the 6 December 2024 via Microsoft Teams. This update provides an overview of the discussion which took place. Reports which were discussed at the meeting can be found by following this link - Agenda for Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership - Management Committee on Friday, 6 December 2024, 10:00 am - Argyll and Bute Council Page 27 Agenda Item 5
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Census / Population Update David Murdoch, Argyll and Bute Council, delivered a presentation on the work on the population and census data from the census / National Records of Scotland (NRS). The Management Committee noted that the population in Argyll and Bute had been gradually declining since 1989 (93,990 people), post-COVID saw a positive trend increasing the net inward migration to the area (however it is too early to forecast if this increase will continue in an upwards trend in the future). David explained how the difference in population estimates from 2011 and 2022 were largely due to changes in how the naval personnel at HMNB Clyde were included, or not, in the 2011 and 2022 census figures respectively. David highlighted that the population in HMNB Clyde is properly accounted as it does impact the area in terms of services being used by the naval personnel – schools, health services etc. David said that in 2043 the projected population in Argyll and Bute would be 73,500 people. The projections also showed an increase to the average population age (46 – 76 years) and the mortality rates of that aging cohort have been reflected in those figures. The age of the working age population is also declining in all four administrative areas. David noted the variance by area of the population under 16, and how the rate of child poverty in Argyll and Bute is 19.4% which is more positive that the Scotland average of 21.8%. However, there are areas in Argyll and Bute were the proportion of children in low income families is higher that the Scottish average, such as Rothesay. Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) 2024 Presentation Saskia Schmitz, NHS Highland, delivered a presentation on the JSNA which detailed the expected future needs of the local population. Included in the presentation was detail on the ageing population in Argyll and Bute, specifically that 27.8% of people over 65 are affected by multiple health conditions. The most common health concerns are cancer, arthritis, coronary heart disease, asthma and diabetes. This will likely lead to a rise in care needs of increasing complexity. The rate of Adult Care home residence in Argyll and Bute is higher than the Scottish average. The highest prevalence condition for those in long-term residential care is dementia and there is an increase in the number of deaths in a homely setting due to dementia. Saskia noted it is difficult to accurately record the number of unpaid carers in Argyll and Bute as not all are registered with carer centres, although recent awareness raising campaigns have shown an uptake in the number of people registering. Currently most unpaid carers are in the age group 35 years and over, although a Page 28
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quarter of all carers are aged 65 and over, showing there may also be a need to provide more support to unpaid carers in the future to support the aging population. Argyll and Bute Council was one of the first to declare a housing emergency. The high cost of homes means only 25% of the population can afford housing here (based on the standard affordable housing ratio of 3.5 x household income). There is a high amount of second homes and ineffective housing stock and the pressure on the market for available homes is highest on our island communities. For social housing, every available property has at least four applicants. Homelessness was reducing, however it has been rising again and may put increasing pressure on our housing / homeless services. CPP Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan Andy Macpherson, Argyll & the Isles Coast & Countryside Trust, pointed to the extensive information available in the meeting pack (link provided above) and gave an overview of where the work is on the strategy, priorities and next steps. The Climate Strategy is broad ranging, including mitigation and adaptation and that is approach sits efficiently with how the Scottish Government is looking to distribute climate change funding. The strategy has been streamlined, and Andy is continuing to work on making the document shorter and simpler. CPP Community Wealth Building (CWB) Short Life Steering Group Takki Sulaiman, Argyll and Bute TSI, presented a recap on the five pillars of CWB and the actions to date. Takki advised that there had been good discussions on CWB at the eight ACPG meetings in April/May and August, and it was discussed at the September CPP Full Partnership. A shared ownership informal best practice group has met 4 times to look at the mechanics of how his could look in terms of community energy / renewable energy schemes. The Council procurement team has also provided excellent information and they are producing a new procurement strategy in early 2025. Good news is that currently 38% of council spend is local, compared to the 28% national average. In February 2025 the CWB Steering Group will host an in-person workshop to produce a summary position statement with a “hyper localised” vision and mission. The group will prioritise recommendations and deliver action plans and explore linkages and opportunities with other strategies. An infographic will be produced to explain how CWB fits with other activities and highlight what role partners can play in the delivery of CWB. Takki advised that the Economic Development Association Scotland have received funding to set up a CWB best practice hub, and an online CWB tool has been set up by the Improvement Service. Argyll and Bute Council Equalities Outcomes Consultation Chris Carr, Argyll and Bute Council, delivered a presentation on the consultation which applies to the Council, Education and licensing board. The consultation is Page 29
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looking to change all the equality outcomes, applying lessons learned from previous outcomes, and apply actions to the new outcomes to facilitate progress reporting. The new outcomes are due to be published at the end of April 2025, and there is a need to consult with relevant groups to develop the outcomes. Chris encouraged partners to promote the consultation to community groups, noting how inclusion and equalities are woven into the Local Outcome Improvement Plan – most closely to the Community Wellbeing priority. The next steps are a public consultation, which will run over the festive period. The responses will then be analysed and amendments made to the outcomes and actions plan as required. Audit Scotland’s Tackling Digital Exclusion Report David Murdoch, Argyll and Bute Council, spoke to the Audit Scotland Report, which was published in August 2024. The aim of the report was to consider how public bodies, including Scottish Government, Councils, NHS and other bodies, understand and are tackling digital exclusion. The report looks at what digital inclusion is, how well the public sector are tackling this issue and how to support improvement to enable digital inclusion. A key message in the report is that digital technologies can bring many benefits and efficiencies, enable people to access services and is an important factor in ongoing public sector reform. Audit Scotland spoke to those with real life experience of digital exclusion and this provided real value to the report. Connecting Scotland has supported over 61,000 households to get online, however this funding has been reduced after the pandemic so collaborative working across organisations is needed to continue this work. Skills development is also needed, with around 15% of Scotland’s adults lacking digital skills. For further information, please contact: Stuart McLean, Committee Manager, Argyll and Bute Council (01436) 657605 Stuart.mclean@argyll-bute.gov.uk Page 30
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Aspiring Places; Community Projects in Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Groups FQ4 2024/25 Lucy Dunbar – Project Officer Milly Leggett – Project Officer Stuart Green – Project Manager Page 31 Agenda Item 6
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Previous project approach - Area Plans Council Agreed Priorities – November 2022 Corporate Plan 2023 - 2027; Agreed by Policy and Resources Committee – October 2023 Number of locality plans - 8 Purpose & Principles Approach - 3 phases Resourcing and timescales In addition; agreed to reflect any relevant outcomes from the Community Planning Partnership Community Wealth Building Review relevant to the Council in the approach to producing area plans. Page 32
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Project review April – September 2024 April 2024 – Project officers appointed. April 2024 - Change of Administration. CEO request for pause and review of project. ELT appointed as project board. Page 33
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Council Agreed Priorities 2024 – 2027 New priorities agreed September 2024 Includes implementation of Aspiring Places; Community Projects in Argyll and Bute. Page 34
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Council Decision – September 2024 Council agreed to; 1. Rename the initiative as ‘Aspiring Places: Community Projects in Argyll and Bute. 2. Adopt Consul Democracy (a digital tool for citizen participation) 3. Engage with all community groups over the same period of time rather than a phased approach on an area basis; 4. Provide guidance to inform community groups of potential funding opportunities. 5. No longer create the publication of 8 ‘Area Plan’ documents and subject to a trial period, alternatively report to members on; a) the outcomes of the initiative through a formal evaluation and b) future recommendations on the long term viability and retention of the Aspiring Places – Community Projects in Argyll and Bute initiative. Page 35
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Revised Project Vision To create in one place, a comprehensive picture of all community projects to increase the likelihood of collaboration, securing external funding and implementation of projects in a planned approach to place. Page 36
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Aspiring Places: One Digital Space for Community Projects in Argyll and Bute Single engagement phase using an existing and established community a digital tool for citizen participation, CONSUL Democracy . An intuitive and easy to use platform designed for communities to create and share their proposals. A tried and tested platform used by 23 Scottish Local Authorities. Pioneered in Argyll and Bute by Community Development team as part of emergency COVID 19 response, Building Back Better initiative. Currently funded by Scottish Government and supported by COSLA. Open access. Page 37
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Project Scope Aspiring Places will be... Aspiring Places will not... A place to help raise awareness of the range of projects community groups and organisations would like to or are planning to carry out Directly administer funding for projects. However, it will provide signposting to existing information about funding opportunities. One single place that community groups, council officers and elected members can go to, to be able to gain knowledge of all the potential and existing projects within an area. Directly support groups to develop projects and/or create business plans. However, it will include signposting to self-help resources A place for groups who want to carry out similar projects to find each other Be a delivery plan for the council or groups taking part An information source that will help the Council link community projects with funding opportunities when they arise Supersede Council plans and priorities Page 38
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Bute • Helensburgh • Islay • Oban • Mull • Campbeltown • Iona • Dunoon • Tiree • Lochgilphead • Seil … Classification: OFFICIAL Next steps Pilot Online Platform (December 2024 – February 2025) Pilot with selected community groups Development of Support Resources Launch (March 2025) Evaluation (August to December 2025) Business Case for Future Retention of Site (January to April 2026) Page 39
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ALIenergy – Report to OLI Area Community Planning Group – January 2025 Lynda Mitchell ALIenergy has a long history of working to alleviate fuel poverty in Argyll, 2025 being our 25th anniversary year. ALIenergy works to help people and the planet. Our activities include supporting local sustainable energy initiatives, providing energy education in schools and communities, and running our Affordable Warmth Service to combat fuel poverty. Current funders include Energy Redress Scheme, Argyll & Bute Council (various funds), Robertson Trust, Bank of Scotland, Big Energy Saving Network, SGN Safe and Warm Fund, Scottish Government (various funds), Centrica’s Energy for Tomorrow, ScottishPower Renewables, SSE Renewables, Drax Foundation, Highlands and Islands Enterprise. Affordable Warmth Service Our beneficiaries are vulnerable/disadvantaged for reasons such as low income, poor health, disability, unemployment, single parenting and old age. We assist households who cannot afford to heat their homes. They are living in cold, damp rooms. They frequently must choose between eating and heating. Fuel poverty is associated with multiple deprivations: poor physical and mental health, loneliness and isolation, poor educational outcomes, low employability and debt, and ultimately, shockingly, loss of life through excess winter deaths, due to cold and damp living conditions. We provide intensive support to guide our most vulnerable households towards greater energy security, often working with each client over a period of several weeks or months, with multiple advice interventions. Our work consists of a combination of home visits, telephone advice calls and associated follow-up work. The value of client gain that we achieve, directly to the most vulnerable households in greatest need, is well over one million pounds per year. This is a combination of immediate crisis interventions and actions to increase resilience to fuel poverty into the future, including accessing available heating and insulation grants, advising on energy saving behaviours; helping to understand bills and meters, comparing and switching suppliers and tariffs; assisting with complaints and metering / billing issues; helping people to access fuel vouchers, free white goods, debt relief and help with ongoing costs from various sources. We also assist with referrals into the Scottish Government and UK Government funded schemes for free home insulation and renewables, and we provide free cosy kit items (blankets, thermal socks, hot water bottles). Winter is a very busy time of year for our Affordable Warmth Team as people struggle with heating bills. There is usually a waiting list for our advisors during the colder months. Page 41 Agenda Item 7
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Storage Heaters Across much of rural Scotland, mains gas is unavailable, and many households use electric storage heaters, which can be difficult to control and expensive to run. The exorbitant price of electricity compared to gas has meant that households using storage heaters may have heating bills which are several times as high as those with gas - or they may self-ration to use much less heat than people with gas. In Oban we are running a pilot project with technical partner Connected Response to provide free smart controls for storage heaters which can help to reduce energy consumption. Education ALIenergy STEM Education Programme covers all of Argyll and Bute. This project encourages and facilitates young people to seek careers in STEM subjects and the green energy sector. We make first contact with young people during their transition from P7 into S1 and S2, with energy and climate change-related activities and workshops, careers events, and stands for the whole community at summer events. Local Energy Developments We are working with local communities and various renewable energy developers, mostly around the Oban area, to explore the potential for community shared ownership of potential wind farm developments. We held public meetings in Oban in February and September 2024. An application to Scottish Government CARES fund to seek advice on potential legal structures for shared ownership was successful. Shared ownership could potentially create a long-term income stream for our communities which could prove transformative, supporting a wide variety of activities and improvements. The Shop The Shop (Re_Store) in Oban was founded through a partnership of local charities: Hope Kitchen, ALIenergy, Oban Youth Café, Lorn & Oban Healthy Options and Atlantis Leisure. The shop sells second hand and repurposed goods as well as redistributing surplus food and running a variety of classes and events including arts, crafts, sewing and mending, including making blankets and draught excluders to give out to those in need, and hosting drop-in advice sessions. We are delighted that the venture is a great success and recently won an Innovation Award at the ScottishPower Foundation Awards 2024. Page 42
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TRANSPORT SCOTLAND UPDATE • A83 Rest & Be Thankful – continuing daily management of the traffic management on this stretch of the A83 to ensure safe passing of the travelling public with regular stakeholder updates advising of changes to the traffic management. There is a final section of debris flow barrier still to be installed at sectors 3a & 3b which is now planned for February, all of which is carried out in full co-ordination with the ongoing ground investigation works which will assist the design of the long term solution (Debris Flow Shelter). • A828 Ledaig Rock Slope – The main works due to commence on 27th January, which have been brought forward in response to the events of November last year when there was a requirement to remove a sizable boulder from the over hanging rock face – events are available on youtube. The main works will take around 12 weeks and include de-vegetation, de- scaling, removal of rock identified as a risk, installation of anchored support mesh & drapery netting • A85 Tyndrum to Dalmally Junction Signing – works are now substantially completed. • A85 Oban to Connel direction signs – There are 3 signs still to install which should progress through February 2025 to completion. Page 43 Agenda Item 8a
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A85 A828 (OLI) 3 Month "Lookahead" Programme North West Bridges/Structures - Please note that none of these are confirmed and most are likely to change, potential dates only Scheme Name/location Brief Description/TTM Proposed Start Proposed End A85 670 W87 Esplanade Sea Wall Scour Repair Temporary traffic lights 01-Mar-25 31-Mar-25 A85 480 Orchy Drainage Improvement Temporary traffic lights 01-Apr-25 30-Apr-25 A828 50 Barcaldine Gardens Parapet Replacement Temporary traffic lights 01-Apr-25 30-Apr-25 Scheme Name Brief Description/TTM Proposed Start Proposed End A85 Stronmilchan Junction Resurfacing (non-structural inlay/overlay) 05-Feb-25 06-Feb-25 A828 Ledaig (CS228_2022) Resurfacing (non-structural inlay/overlay) TBC TBC A85 Loch Awe East Resurfacing (non-structural inlay/overlay) 09-Feb-25 15-Feb-25 A828 Beinn Sgluish Resurfacing (non-structural inlay/overlay) 19-Jan-25 05-Feb-25 A85 Dunollie Road (Oban) Resurfacing (non-structural inlay/overlay) 16-Mar-25 21-Mar-25 A85 West of Lix Toll Resurfacing (non-structural inlay/overlay) 31-Mar-25 06-Apr-25 A85 Cruachan Power Station Resurfacing (non-structural inlay/overlay) 03-Feb-25 05-Feb-25 A85 Loch Lubhair Resurfacing (non-structural inlay/overlay) 31-Mar-25 08-Apr-25 A828 South of Connel Bridge Resurfacing (non-structural inlay/overlay) 30-Mar-25 03-Apr-25 North West - Minor Improvement schemes, potential dates Scheme Name Brief Description/TTM Proposed Start Proposed End A83 OMR Medium Term Solution Completion of Old Military road Improvements, Glen Croe - No TM as off A83 24-Feb-25 28-Feb-25 A83 RaBT Ph 3 A B Slip Installation of debris flow barrier - TM covered by Operational managemnt above 10-Feb-25 10-Apr-25 North West Planned Maintenance - surfacing. Again proposed dates Version: 1.0 05/02/2025 Page 45
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A83 Rest and Thankful Operational & Landslip Management Page 47 Agenda Item 8b
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A83 Rest and Thankful Hillside Monitoring Regime Daily management of the route is continuing behind the scenes by our designated engineering team, to ensure it is safe for road users. This includes:- Daily Remote weather station monitoring Expert weather forecasting Ground saturation estimates Remote timelapse photography Daily decision-making on use of A83 or OMR Weekly (depending on weather, more frequently) Site team observations on hillside condition and watercourse flows Hillside movement surveys & observations. Traffic Management (varying levels of response) Traffic signals Convoy operation Old Military Road SIDR (A82/A85/A819) Page 48
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A83 Rest and Thankful Old Military Road (OMR) is operational; • A number of works completed (Phase 1 of MTS) incl. road upgrades, drainage improvements, extend HESCO barrier, widening at bends • Accessible for all forms of transport incl. arctics • Use of convoy traffic management • Other works incl. new structure over Croe Water & further road widening are still required to ensure full resilience & protect access to Argyle & Bute Page 49
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A83 Rest and Thankful Image from February 2024 Image from September 2024 Phase 3a & 3b, Retaining Wall; • Significant failure above the retaining wall section, boulders onto A83 considered as the primary risk • At that time, no landslide mitigation fences or pits in this local • Temporary boulder fence provided (flat bed) & under traffic signal control • Permanent additional debris fence being designed and procured Phase 7; • Significant landslip during dry conditions, unanticipated • Failure witnessed during normal procedures • Successful use of debris flow netting & catchpit area • Resulting clearance works completed successfully Page 50
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A83 Rest and Thankful QUESTIONS? Page 51
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Classification: OFFICIAL Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership Oban, Lorn and the Isles Area Community Planning Group 12 February 2025 Mainland Ferries Report Summary The report is for noting and provides an update following presentation of the same report at the Environment, Development and Infrastructure meeting on the 19th December 2024 1. Purpose 1.1 The report introduces members to the ‘Argyll & Bute Council Mainland Ferries Study – Comparative Analysis of Options for Council-run ferries’ carried out by Caledonian Economics (Mainland Ferries Study) at Appendix 1. 1.2 The anticipated Islands Connectivity Plan and Community Needs Assessments being produced by Transport Scotland, excludes local authority run ferries from proposals. This study seeks to address the gap left by this exclusion and looks at options for the future of lifeline services to Easdale and Luing 2. Recommendations 2.1 Area CPG members are requested to: • Note the content of this report. • Agree to receive further updates on progress of the next stage of the study. 3. Detail 3.1 On 13 October 2022 Policy and Resources Committee agreed to allocate £100k of Crown Estates Funds to a feasibility study and specification work for pier infrastructure at Ellenabeich and Easdale which would support the ongoing provision of the council ferry service. 3.2 A sensible starting position for the feasibility study was a baseline study into the current services being provided. Economies of scale enabled the inclusion of the Luing service at the same time, Page 53 Agenda Item 9
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Classification: OFFICIAL particularly as the Luing Community Council had separately commenced a ‘Participation Request’ to investigate improvements to the Cuan service. 3.3 Caledonian Economics were engaged to carry out this work at a cost of £10k leaving £90k for the remaining detailed study. 3.4 The study at Appendix 1 therefore concentrates on the current provision of lifeline services covering the islands of Luing and Easdale. Both services use aging vessels and infrastructure, which do not reach modern standards and expectations, to support a variety of users within the communities 3.5 The study was presented to members of the Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee on the 19th December 2024 and recommended Members: • Thank the Easdale and Luing community council representatives and residents for the high level of engagement and return regarding the study. • Discuss the contents and implications of the Mainland Ferries Study (Appendix 1). • Approve the continuation of the feasibility study to progress a business case for the provision of infrastructure options to Easdale, including fixed links. • Approve the inclusion of options to Luing in the feasibility study to continue to take advantage of economy of scale, and • acknowledged the ongoing need to continue to engage with residents and representatives of the communities on the Isle of Luing, Isle of Seil, and Easdale, in relation to council run ferry services and infrastructure. 3.6 This decision was approved by members and is detailed in the printed minutes at Appendix 2 4. Conclusion 4.1 The study provides an overview of past and current service levels and makes recommendations for the future infrastructure needs in both locations. It Page 56 balances financial estimates with public opinion to suggest options that are available and viable for council purposes.. 4.2 Officers will now further investigate the recommended options including potential fixed links to replace both ferry crossings by preparing a business case for each location. Page 54
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Classification: OFFICIAL 5. SOA Outcomes 5.1 Policy – None. 5.2 Financial – None. 5.3 Legal – None. 5.4 HR – None. 5.5 Fairer Scotland Duty: 5.5.1 Equalities - protected characteristics - Vessel and Infrastructure accessibility (Equalities Act). 5.5.2 Socio-economic Duty - Lifeline ferries with no other current means to travel to / from islands. 5.5.3 Islands - Education, transport, health, business. 5.6 Climate Change – Effect of increasing water levels and extreme weather events on the infrastructure and provision of service. 5.7 Risk - Vessel age and current infrastructure conditions. 5.8 Customer Service - Complaints about current service levels will increase as vessels age. 5.9 The Rights of the Child (UNCRC) - Education and social access to mainland facilities and services. For further information please contact: Kelly McKellar, Project Manager – Piers and Harbours, Argyll and Bute Council Tel 01546 604 214 Appendix 1 – Mainland Ferries Report Appendix 2 – EDI Committee – Printed Minutes 191224 Page 55
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Caledonian Economics Argyll & Bute Council Mainland Ferries Study Page 57
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Caledonian Economics Argyll & Bute Council Mainland Ferries Study Comparative Analysis of Options for Council-run ferries April 2024 Page 58
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Caledonian Economics Introduction Argyll & Bute Council is responsible for four ferry services to Jura, Luing, Easdale and Lismore. Three of the four routes are operated using ageing vessels and none have any vessel redundancy. The services currently operate at a significant deficit with a Scottish Government settlement required to help bridge the funding gap. The forthcoming Islands Connectivity Plan (ICP) being produced by Transport Scotland seeks to address the future of ferry and alternative transport for Scottish Islands but excludes those ferry services operated by Local Authorities. This report seeks to address the mainland ferry services operated by Argyll and Bute Council. The Jura –Islay route is not considered in this report. This is due to separate legislation that covers this specific route which is set in a unique location and is subject to wider workstreams already in motion. The current Lismore service was initially considered within this report. The route is currently serviced by the newest vessel in the fleet, with a life expectancy of at least 15 years. There are issues with timetable provision which encroach on the operational performance, these will be dealt with through a proposed ferry user forum to be established. This report concentrates on the lifeline services provided between Luing– Seil and Easdale - Seil. Both services are supported by aging vessels and insufficient infrastructure which does not comply with current Equalities Act Legislation. This report seeks to provide further information on current services and offers potential future solutions in both locations along with information gathered via public consultation with local users. Page 59
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Caledonian Economics Isle of Luingand Easdale Island Ferry Crossings Past, Present and Future 1. Background: Population trends and subsidies 2. Isle of Luing/Cuan Crossing: • Past and present • Options, analysis and conclusions 3. Isle of Easdale: • Past and present • Options, analysis and conclusions 4. Other Impacts on Public Services 5. Final Comments 6. Appendices 4 Page 60
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Caledonian Economics Population Trends Argyll and Bute Population Forecasts (Source: National Records of Scotland) 5 79,500 80,000 80,500 81,000 81,500 82,000 82,500 83,000 83,500 84,000 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Argyll and Bute Population Forecast (2018 based, Source NRS) Population 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 0 to 15 16 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over Age cohort forecasts (2018-2028 Source: NRS) 2018 2028 The population of Argyll and Bute is forecast to fall and age Page 61
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Caledonian Economics 6 • School roll forecasts for Easdale and Luing were presented during the statutory consultation on the future of Luing Primary School. These indicate a similar picture of population decline • The population of Oban Lorne and the Isles is forecast to fall and age, following a similar pattern to Argyll and Bute presented on the previous page Population Trends Oban, Lorne and the Isles (Source: NHS Scotland) Page 62
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Caledonian Economics Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) Study, Cuan 2007 STAG Options Appraisal for Cuan Sound Crossing – key points • Appraisal Conducted: Evaluation by STAG of the transport possibilities for the Cuan Sound crossing. • Options Considered: A range of solutions including high/low level bridges, a causeway, a tunnel, and enhancements to the ferry service schedule. • Identified Issues with current provision: Disruptions in the ferry service, insufficient capacity during peak times, limitations for large vehicle transport, constrained Sunday/evening services, financial challenges, high perceived costs, and limited access to Seil and the mainland. • Community Perspective: Debate on whether to retain and improve the current ferry service or construct a fixed link. • Excluded Options: low-level bridge, causeway, and tunnel options were rejected from initial list due to navigation, environmental, geological, and financial concerns. • Appraisal Conclusion: A detailed appraisal indicated that a bridge provides the most significant improvement in accessibility, benefiting social inclusion, economic gains, and local business growth. • Overall Recommendation: Advised building a high-level bridge for optimal economic and social advantages. Framework for Luing’s Future 2022 Isle of Luing Community Housing and Business Needs Survey Report 2023 Consultation overview: • Studies were carried out on behalf of the community • Involved residents (past and present), stakeholders and authorities Key Findings • Strong community interest in enhancing connectivity • Poor transport links are cited as a reason for people leaving the island • Request for more reliable and frequent transport links to support local economy and accessibility. • Plans to develop housing and expand the economy • Concerns about the current infrastructure’s capacity to meet future demands. 7 Isle of Luing Cuan Sound Crossing Past Studies Page 63
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Caledonian Economics • MV Belnahua provides all sailings. The Grey Dog and/or alternative vessel is hired in when MV Belnahuais away for her refits. • The service runs at an annual loss of around £366,000 (based on the 2023 Service Review), expected to rise to £470,000 as the vessel ages. • MV Belnahua was built in 1972 and is at the end of her reasonable and already extended life. Parts can no longer be sourced for her engines and work is required to bring her up to standard with current marine requirements. She is also operating around 25% above capacity to support demand, especially in summer. She is scheduled to have a life extending refit early in 2024 that will fit new engines and other compliant equipment such as fixed firefighting equipment and bilge alarms. This should extend her life for around 5 years but she needs to be retired. • Current plan is that a new vessel will be built for the Jura-Islay route which would free up MV Eilean Dhiurato replace the MV Belnahua. • This is currently unfunded so there is not a timescale for this. The condition of the MV Belnahuawould dictate a maximum of 5 years to prepare the Cuan crossing in readiness for the MV Eilean Dhiurato use it, if it is freed up by then. • The gradient on the pier on Luing does not meet Equalities Act guidelines and there needs to be facilities for an overnight berth for the vessel. • Previous proposals suggested a new slip would be constructed to suit MV Eilean Dhiura. This would need be complicated by the need to operate the current slip until a new slip was completed. 8 Isle of Luing Cuan Sound Crossing Current Situation Page 64
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Caledonian Economics Passenger/Vehicle Numbers (on basis of tickets sold) 2022/23 Actual HITRANS 2003 SPT Concessionary Travel 1044 Foot Passengers and drivers (single and return) 9,805 Foot Passengers and driver on 5-Return Journey tickets 5 x 2 x 2,453 = 24,530 Total Passengers 35,379 20,170 Private motor cars 3,276 Private motor cars on 5-Return tickets 5 x 2 x 1,406 = 14,060 Car Blue Badge 633 Motorcycles 52 Total cars and MCs 18,021 14,337 Commercial vehicles/coaches – 5-8m 484 Not availableCommercial vehicles/coaches – 8-12m 138 Commercial vehicles/coaches – 12-18m 5 9 • Passenger numbers increased by around 75% and private vehicles up 25% from 2003 to 2023 Isle of Luing Cuan Sound Crossing Ferry Services Data Page 65
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Caledonian Economics Adult return Car return Commercial return Per STAG (Published March 2007 so data assumed to be from 2006) £1.45 £5.90 £13.20 (>3.5t) Current 2023 £2.50 £9.70 £17.10 (5-8m) % increase 72% 64% 30% 10 • A range of other tickets are offered in addition to those shown, including multi-journey booklets, concessions and children. • Price inflation for the period 2006 to 2023 was around 65% so the price of the basic passenger and car tickets appear to have kept pace with inflation. • The price of tickets for commercial vehicles seems to have lagged inflation although the basis of classifying commercials has changed from weight to length. • SPT concessionary travel is too small value to be claimed back Isle of Luing Cuan Sound Crossing Ticket Prices Page 66
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Caledonian Economics 11 • Option 1 – Operate MV Belnahuafor five years, then open low bridge • Option 2 - Operate MV Belnahuafor five years, then use MV Eilean Dhiura* for five years to the same timetable, then open low bridge • Option 3 - Operate MV Belnahuafor five years, then use MV Eilean Dhiura* for five years with an enhanced timetable, then open low bridge • Option 4 – Operate MV Belnahuafor five years, then open high bridge • Option 5 - Operate MV Belnahuafor five years, then use a new vessel (hybrid-powered) for the remainder of the period of the analysis (with mid-term replacement) 1. Assumed no scrap/resale value for ferries 2. ‘Low bridge’ would be an opening bridge to allow vessels to pass through 3. ‘High bridge’ would have clearance for vessels to pass under * MV Eilean Dhiura currently operating on the Jura to Islay route and this option is subject to Argyll and Bute Council gaining funding for a replacement vessel for this route. Isle of Luing Cuan Sound Crossing Future Options Assumptions Page 67
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Caledonian Economics 12 • Net present value (NPV) using the Treasury Green Book discount rates is the correct metric to use for investment appraisal of this type. • Total cash is also shown for comparison. • Capital cost cashflows are assumed to happen in the first year of operations for the asset concerned. 30.0 34.3 35.4 49.5 84.8 22.9 22.7 23.5 38.8 50.6 - 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 Belnahua then low bridge Belnahua then E.D. same TT then low bridge Belnahua then E.D +TT then low bridge Belnahua then high bridge Belnahua then Hybrid Cuan 60 year cash and NPV, £M 60yy Cash 60yy NPV Isle of Luing Cuan Sound Crossing Options Net present value Page 68
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Caledonian Economics 13 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960 Cuan DCF £M Belnahua then low bridge Cumulative DCF/NPV Belnahua then E.D. same TT then low bridge Cumulative DCF/NPV Belnahua then E.D +TT then low bridge Cumulative DCF/NPV Belnahua then Hybrid Cumulative DCF/NPV Belnahua then high bridge Cumulative DCF/NPV Isle of Luing Cuan Sound Crossing Options Discounted cash flow • See Appendix 2.1 to 2.5 for details of how costing estimates were prepared Page 69
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Caledonian Economics Support for a Fixed Link (Bridge or Tunnel): • Over a quarter of respondents expressed explicit support for a fixed link, either a bridge or tunnel • those expressing support saw benefits in terms of connectivity and ease of access for work, leisure and essential services. • There were few specific objections to a fixed link - more people would simply prefer an improved ferry service Support for Ferry Service: • Over half respondents expressed a preference for retention of the ferry service, • However, many are dissatisfied with the vessel, the reliability, and the level of service. • Commonly expressed views include a better vessel, an extension of the timetable, better links with other public transport, and reduced fares. Common Concerns and Suggestions: • Cost: A common theme is the concern over the cost of the ferry service and its impact on the island's residents, with suggestions for reduced fares. • Accessibility: Several comments mention the need for better accessibility, especially for wheelchairs and prams. • Timetable: Many residents express a desire for a ferry timetable that accommodates residents’ needs, including later services and better synchronization with buses. • Sustainability: Some responses highlight the need for sustainability, mentioning electric ferries and a service that doesn't rely on the ferry. • Employment: The ferry service is noted as providing local employment, which is valued. 14 Isle of Luing Cuan Sound Crossing Options Residents Survey Findings (2024) Page 70
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Caledonian Economics Financial Analysis1: • a fixed link (low level) as soon as possible is the lowest cost in cash terms. • Using the MV Eilean Dhuirabefore building a fixed link (low level) adds around £4M to the total in cash terms, no material difference in NPV • Extending the timetable adds slightly over £1M in cash and NPV terms • Compared to a low level bridge, a high level bridge adds around £20M (cash) or £8M (NPV). A high level bridge would be preferable from a navigability and resilience perspective. • A permanent ferry solution is almost three times to cost of a low level bridge in cash terms, or around 1.7 times the cost of a high level bridge in NPV terms Community views: • There is notable dissatisfaction with the current arrangement • This is a general preference for improving the ferry service, although a significant number of respondents see real benefits in a fixed link • Few specific objections to a fixed link were raised. Next steps/way forward: • This is a preliminary analysis that could be expanded on in future studies. It is not intended to be a full options appraisal in line with the STAG and HMT Green Book methodologies, but it follows their principles and can be considered a starting point for full studies in the future. • There is no plan for the route beyond the life of the existing aged vessels (MV Belnahuaand MV Eilean Dhiura). • Thus, a solution needs to be in place in five years (without Eilean Dhiura) or in ten years (if Eilean Dhiurabecomes available) • The long-term options are either a new vessel or a fixed link. • The long-term costs of a fixed link are significantly less than a replacement ferry. • The community has expressed dissatisfaction with the existing arrangement. Some in the community would prefer to see this addressed by an improved ferry service, others would prefer a fixed link. • The community has plans to attract new families to the island and to develop the local economy, including reopening a quarry. Good transport connectivity will help these important initiatives succeed. • Either solution will require significant capital investment. A fixed link would provide a permanent solution at a lower cost, address many aspects of the community’s dissatisfaction with the current arrangements, and facilitate improvements in public service delivery. • Considering long-term sustainability and cost-effectiveness, this study concludes that the preferred option from a technical and financial would be a fixed link. • It is recommended that these options be explored more fully including detailed technical appraisals, updated STAG study and relevant community engagement in line with legislation. 15 1 60-year comparisons Isle of Luing Cuan Sound Crossing Options Conclusions Page 71
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Caledonian Economics Intentionally blank 16 Page 72
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Caledonian Economics Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) study, Easdale 2009 Transport Options Appraisal for Easdale Island – key points (2009) • Appraisal Conducted: Evaluation by STAG to determine suitable transport options for Easdale Island. • Options Explored: Considered either an upgrade to the existing ferry service or the construction of a causeway with a fixed bridge. • Ferry Service Option: Found to be more cost-effective, aligned with transport objectives but would require additional infrastructure and presented financial risks for the Council. • Responsibility Transfer:Suggested that giving Islanders control could lead to better financial management and tailored services (although it was unclear if there was appetite or capacity for this in the community) • Causeway Construction Option: Better reliability and safety at higher cost. Would require an Environmental Impact Assessment. Community acceptance uncertain (presumably meaning that the community could block the development at the planning stage ) • Community Consideration: The causeway's benefits would depend on how much it is utilised by the island's residents (although presumably this would be at least the same as the ferry use) • Overall Recommendation: the study was inconclusive. 17 Easdale Island Easdale Sound Crossing Past Studies Page 73
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Caledonian Economics • Per the Easdale STAG, the route is covered by MV Fladdaand ML Easdale (relief vessel). • The service runs at an annual loss of around £290,000 (based on the 2023 Service Review), expected to rise to over £600,000. • No plans for changes/improvements until the results of this appraisal are available. • The harbour is owned by ‘Eilean Eisdeal’, the Easdale Island Community Development Group • Slipway is owned by Argyll and Bute Council • Easdale Island is privately owned. Owner was contacted for comment as part of this study but has not responded. • Ongoing dredging of the harbour at Easdale is undertaken by the Council if deemed necessary along with any routine repairs to both slips as required. 18 Easdale Island Easdale Sound Crossing Current Situation Page 74
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Caledonian Economics Passenger Numbers Easdale 2022/23 Actual1 HITRANS 20032 SPT Concessionary Travel 346 n/a Out of Hours (before and after midnight). Foot Passengers (individual single journeys). 10,690 Foot Passengers – travelling on 5-return journey books sold) 12,422 Freight Customers n/a Other (please specify) n/a Total Usage (individual journeys) 23,458 18,1723 19 1 ABC - Marine Operations Data Requirements v3 (17 July 23) 2 Strategic Sea Crossings in the Highlands and Islands: Development Opportunities 2005-2025, Nov 2005, Fisher Associates on behalf of HITRANS 3 a figure of 13,000 was given in the text of the STAG report • Use has increased by around 29% 2003-2023 Easdale Island Easdale Sound Crossing Ferry Services Data Page 75
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Caledonian Economics Adult return Car return Commercial return Per STAG (Published March 2009 so data assumed to be from 2008) £1.55 Passenger-only serviceCurrent 2023 £2.50 % increase 61% 20 • A range of other tickets are offered in addition to those shown, including multi- journey booklets, concessions and children. • Price inflation for the period 2008 to 2023 was around 65% so the price of the basic passenger ticket appears to have kept pace with inflation Easdale Island Easdale Sound Crossing Ticket Prices Page 76
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Caledonian Economics 21 • Option 1 - Do minimum, continue to provide current service and replace vessels like for like - minor improvements to waiting room/staff accommodation • Option 2 - Replace the vessel with a Landing Craft-type vessel & minor waiting room improvements (with mid-life replacement) • Option 3 - Replace the vessel as above and build four breakwaters, relocate slipways, and provide new waiting facilities • Option 4 - Install fixed link (footway to take vehicles no larger than quad bike size) • Option 5 - Install fixed link as above with additional services Easdale Island Easdale Sound Crossing Future Options Assumptions Page 77
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Caledonian Economics 22 39.4 44.2 83.7 7.3 11.6 25.3 28.5 67.6 6.9 9.6 - 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 Option 1 Do minimum Option 2 - Landing Craft Option 3- vessel + breakwaters Option 4 - Fixed link Option 5 - fixed link + Easdale Crossing -60 year cash and NPV cumulative(£M) Total Cash NPV @ 60 years Easdale Island Easdale Sound Crossing Net Present Value • See Appendix 1.1 to 1.5 for details of how costing estimates were prepared Page 78
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Caledonian Economics 23 - 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 Easdale -Cumulative Discounted Cashflow (£M) Option 1 - Do Nothing Option 2 - Replace with Landing Craft-type vessel and minor waiting room improvements. Option 3 - Replace vessel as above and build 4No Breakwaters, relocate slipways, provide new waiting facilities Option 4 - Fixed link Option 5 - Fixed Link Plus Extra Support Easdale Island Easdale Sound Crossing Discounted Cash Flow • See Appendix 1.1 to 1.5 for details of how costing estimates were prepared Page 79
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Caledonian Economics Support for Improving the Ferry Service: • Residents prioritise compliance with legislation and addressing access issues due to climate change. Many called for a solution to the infilling of the harbour. • There is a desire for a ferry better equipped to handle a range of items, reduce manual handling issues, and improve accessibility • Several residents emphasised the need to retain the ferry service to preserve the island's character and prevent negative ecological impacts. Suggestions include better parking, improved ferry facilities, and enhanced welfare facilities for staff • There are calls for multiple breakwaters to be constructed to reduce weather interruptions, ensure safety and stop the problem of slate filling the harbour. Support for a Fixed Link: • A very small number express a preference for a fixed link to modernise access to the island, with one respondent specifically suggesting a bridge for its modern convenience and potential to enhance trade. Concerns and Additional Suggestions: • The concerns about infrastructure extend to the preservation of the island's ecology and the well-being of its wildlife, with some respondents worried about the introduction of invasive species if a fixed link were built (Responses #5, #57). • Residents express a deep appreciation for the ferry staff and the community spirit they embody, highlighting the social aspect of the ferry service. • There is an acknowledgment of the island's unique character and its appeal to tourists, which many feel would be compromised by infrastructure changes. • Financial sustainability of the ferry service was also mentioned, with suggestions for integrating ferry ticket costs into council tax for residents and increasing prices for visitors. 24 Easdale Island Easdale Sound Crossing Residents Survey Findings (2024) Page 80
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Caledonian Economics Financial Analysis: • In cash terms, a fixed link is a fifth of the cost of maintaining the current arrangement, around one quarter in NPV terms. • Continuation of the existing arrangement is around £5M cash (£3M NPV) less than replacement with a Landing Craft-type vessel with replacement at year 30. • In NPV terms the cost of creating breakwaters (with replacement vessels and slip upgrades to meet regulations) is ten times the cost of creating a fixed link Community views: • There is resistance to a fixed link • Concerns about a fixed link include ecological issues and fear of problems brought by visitors. • Residents express a deep appreciation for the ferry staff and the community spirit they embody, highlighting the social aspect of the ferry service. • The community values the island's unique character and its appeal to tourists. Many feel this would be compromised by a fixed link. Next steps/way forward: • This is a preliminary analysis that could be expanded on in future studies. It is not intended to be a full options appraisal in line with the STAG and HMT Green Book methodologies, but it follows their principles and can be considered a starting point for full studies. • The cost of maintaining the existing arrangement is unviable. • The costs of breakwaters are prohibitive. • The long-term costs of a fixed link are far less than maintaining the existing arrangement. • Considering long-term sustainability and cost-effectiveness, this study concludes that the preferred option from a technical and financial perspective would be a fixed link. • It is recommended that these options be explored more fully including detailed technical appraisals, updated STAG study and relevant community engagement in line with legislation. • The communities on Jura and Ulva operate ferry services themselves, funded directly by central government. This is an additional option to consider for Easdale if the community were to present a sustainable and deliverable long-term business model. 25 Easdale Island Easdale Sound Crossing Conclusions Page 81
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Caledonian Economics 26 Intentionally blank Page 82
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Caledonian Economics Waste Collection - Luing: • Currently a ‘narrow width’ refuse vehicle is used to provide waste pick up from Luing. The weight of the the vehicle and refuse is restricted by the ferry weight limit. The Council has a limited number of such vehicles which increases the risk of service interruption due to breakdowns. • A fixed link would permit the use of a standard-width refuse vehicle on this route. This would improve the volume capacity and would reduce the risk of service interruption due to breakdowns. Waste Collection - Easdale: • A fixed link would allow for easier transportation of the bins to Ellenabeich. This would support a more regular pickup, reducing the demand for storage space and reducing the pressure on public bins in Ellenabeich. • A fixed link along with some improvements to the footpath network may also support transport and recycling of heavier items such as white goods and building materials. School transport: • Luing – under the present arrangement, some pupils have to wait for the next scheduled sailing. A fixed link would remove this constraint. • Easdale – pupils sometimes must wait for space on the ferry, particularly during busier summer months when school is still in session. A fixed link would remove this constraint • In both locations – inclement weather can prevent the ferries from sailing, resulting in pupils being removed from school early to ensure they return home safely. A fixed link would reduce the frequency of these occurrences. • In both locations - families incur additional ferry fares to attend parents’ evenings after after-school events, and in some cases timetable restrictions may preclude attendance. A fixed link would remove these costs/constraints. 27 Impacts/Implications Council Services Page 83
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Caledonian Economics Social and health: • Under the current arrangements, social and healthcare professionals are limited in their ability to provide care on both islands outside the ferry operating hours. • A fixed link would provide unhindered access to and from both islands allowing the same standard of at-home care as in Seil and the mainland. Blue light services: • At Easdale, an air ambulance is used for every medical emergency. The provision of a fixed link would enable the Scottish Ambulance Service to triage and send local ambulances to attend when it is more appropriate to do so. • At Luing, ferry staff are kept on standby to operate the ferry should emergency access be required. A fixed link would allow emergency vehicles to attend emergencies more quickly, especially during bad weather. 28 Impacts/Implications Social, Health and Emergency Services Page 84
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Caledonian Economics Other potential impacts: • EV charging and utilities management – A fixed link would enable easier access for upgrading and maintaining essential utilities. This could include an upgrade to the electricity network which may be required to expand EV charging provision. • Plans for Quarry on Luing – LuingCommunity Trust plans to develop the quarry at Cullipool, reviving small-scale slate production, protecting the island heritage and ensuring traditional methods are passed on. A fixed link would support this by making it easier and less costly to transport explosives, plant and equipment, and slate exports to and from the island. • Housing – with a fixed link in place, the costs of transporting materials to Luing will be less and should result in lower construction costs. Similarly, a fixed link may also attract new people to the island, currently put off by the restrictions of a ferry connection. • In Easdale, the transport of goods would be unrestricted, making it easier to receive deliveries of cooking gas and fuel for power tools and similar needs. It may also reduce the costs of trade services such as electricians, plumbers, and other aspects of small-scale building projects. • Tourism – A fixed link to both islands may enhance tourism opportunities by improving connectivity, extending the tourist season, and providing opportunities for more unique attractions, which would further enhance the visitor experience. 29 Impacts/Implications Other Services Page 85
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Caledonian Economics Luing Conclusions: • A fixed link (low-level bridge) is identified as the most cost-effective solution in the long term. A high-level bridge would provide navigability and resilience advantages. • The community shows dissatisfaction with the current ferry service arrangement, although there's a preference for improving the ferry service. • A significant proportion of respondents see benefits in a fixed link. Few specific objections to a fixed link were raised. • Considering long-term sustainability and cost-effectiveness, the study concludes that a fixed link is the preferred option from both technical and financial perspectives. • It is recommended that these options be explored further, including detailed technical appraisals, an updated STAG study, and relevant community engagement. EasdaleConclusions: • The financial analysis reveals that a fixed link is substantially less costly over the long term than maintaining or upgrading the current ferry arrangement. • There is resistance within the community to a fixed link due to ecological concerns and the potential impact on the island's character. • A fixed link would resolve many issues related to service accessibility and reliability. • The community values the ferry service for its employment opportunities and the community spirit it fosters. • Despite the financial advantages, the community's preference is for improving the ferry service rather than establishing a fixed link. Impacts on Public Services in the Islands: • a fixed link could improve waste collection, school transport, and emergency services by providing unrestricted access and addressing the limitations of ferry services. • a fixed link could extend the tourist season and offer opportunities for unique attractions and new jobs. In summary, from a financial and technical standpoint, a fixed link presents a more sustainable and cost-effective long-term solution for both Luingand Easdale. However, community sentiment, particularly in Easdale, leans towards improving the existing ferry services due to concerns over the cultural and ecological impact of a fixed link 30 Final Comments Page 86
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Caledonian Economics Appendices estimates/assumptions used in financial calculations (provided by Argyll & Bute Council) 31 Page 87
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32 Do minimum, continue to provide current service and maintain existing vessels– minor improvements to waiting room/staff accommodation Annual costs Capital costs Annual Income Life span Staff costs £400,000.00 0 Annual vessel and infrastructure maintenance £240,553.00 0 Annual - cost varies Reset gabion baskets with imported fill * £100,000.00 0 10 years Dredging of Easdale Harbour £40,000.00 0 2 years Additional refuse collection costs £30,000.00 Annual Income from ticket sales £45,870.00 Annual Waiting room improvements ** £50,000.00 0 25 years Totals £690,553.00 £150,000.00 £45,870.00 Appendix 1.1 Easdale Options 1 Do Minimum – Cost Estimates • Staff costs include, 4 x skipper and crew, Technical Officer Ferries 25%, Admin Officer 15%, Marine Ops Manager 5% (includes pay, holiday pay, pension, training and Contracted staff costs) • Vessel and infrastructure costs based on average of costs incurred between FY's 2013 - 2023 includes for vessel maintenance, infrastructure maintenance, ticketing software, VHF licensing, crew PPE, safety checks, audits and inspections, CCTV, fuel etc • Income based on financial year 22/23 ticket sales • Annual dredging based on actual costs for work carried out in 2022 and 2024 averaged • * Gabions - based on estimate of 4,000 tonnes of granite material at £20 per tonne delivered and baskets refilled and rebuilt. Estimate 3-4 weeks work, 2 persons and excavator • ** Small sum for waiting/staff room improvements - details not determined Page 88
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33 Replace current vessels with Carvoriatype vessel, minor waiting room improvements Annual costs Capital costs Annual Income Life span New vessel costs *** £270,000.00 0 30 years Replacement vessel in year 30 £2,000,000.00 0 Amendments to existing pier to suit new vessel and Equality Act requirements **** £1,500,000.00 0 40 years Staff costs £400,000.00 0 Annual vessel and infrastructure maintenance £240,553.00 0 Reset gabion baskets with imported fill * £100,000.00 0 10 years Dredging of Easdale Harbour £40,000.00 0 2 years Income from ticket sales -£45,870.00 Waiting room improvements ** £50,000.00 0 Totals £680,553.00 £3,920,000.00 -£45,870.00 Appendix 1.2 Easdale Options 2 Landing Craft – Cost Estimates • Staff costs, annual vessel and maintenance costs, dredging costs, gabions, waiting room improvements and income as previous pages - does not allow for increased number of crew to provide more sailings than current timetable allows. • refuse collection costs removed - anticipated to be included in staff costs/time if this option implemented. • ***New vessel costs - assumption based on CMAL Carvoriavessel. Cost £200k in 2017 increased by inflation at 5% per year. New vessel anticipated life is 30 years. Alternative vessels may cost more • ****Existing slip improvement costs based on Iona slipway repairs at £650,000 for one slipway - doubled for two plus round up to include for additional costs to get plant/materials to Easdale Page 89
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34 Replace vessel as above and build 4No Breakwaters, relocate slipways, provide new waiting facilities Annual costs Capital costs Annual Income Life span New vessel costs £270,000.00 30 years Replacement vessel in year 30 £2,000,000.00 Construction of new breakwaters £30,777,000.00 100 years Construct new slipways and additional infrastructure (waiting room/fuel store/path network on Easdale) £15,000,000.00 100 years Staff costs £400,000.00 Annual vessel and infrastructure maintenance £240,553.00 Income from ticket sales -£45,870.00 Totals £640,553.00 £48,047,000.00 -£45,870.00 Appendix 1.3 Easdale Options 3 Breakwater – Cost Estimates • Staff costs, vessel and replacement vessel costs and annual income as described in previous pages. • Breakwater volumes based on cross section area of 35m wide by 11m high with 5m wide flat top = 181m2. Length of breakwaters estimates as follows West (Seil) - 190m, West (Easdale) - 225m, East (Seil) - 160m, East (Easdale) - 105m - total volume 123,080m3 • Breakwater cost based on average of latest Iona Breakwater estimate at £225/m3 plus Dunoon breakwater in 2020 at £209/m3 - average cost used of £217/m3 • Anticipate constructing new slips to reduce commitment to dredge harbour (not A&BC owned) Seil slipway approx80m long by 6m wide (480m2) Easdale slip 95m long x 6m wide (570m2) • New waiting room costs - £300,000 (based on Iona toilet block costs at £215,000) includes for additional pipe network or septic tank, upgrade of path network and new exclusive use fuel store at Ellenabeich. Page 90
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35 Install fixed link Annual costs Capital costs Annual Income Life span Design and construction costs £4,760,000.00 0 Land purchase £2,240,000.00 0 Annual inspection and maintenance £5,000.00 0 125 years Totals £5,000.00 £7,000,000.00 £0.00 Appendix 1.4 Easdale Options 4 Fixed Link – Cost Estimates • Suggested design of short length of causeway to reduce span. Max span estimated at 70m to maintain access via sea for smaller vessels - suggest steel truss or composite beams. Bridge to be designed to suit crowd loading by pedestrians, cyclist and quad access. Max 4m wide with a parapet height of 1.5m, min design life of 125 years. Not suitable for vehicular access larger than a quad bike or similar. • Consider additional gate (perhaps coded?) on Easdale side for residents to manage night- time access. • On completion, structure will be added to existing bridge inspection and maintenance regime. (Assumption max £5k per annum, likely less in first 10 years of operation) • A&BC in-house design team may have availability to carry out design which may offer a reduced cost. Page 91
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36 Possible additional costs that could supplement a fixed link provision Annual costs Capital costs Annual income Life span Local Ranger Service (continues employment in area) £70,000 0 0 As required Provision of coin operated trolleys and trolley store for transporting heavy goods/luggage £6,000 0 15 year Provision of quad bike and training for operatives to move refuse bins £500/ year £8,000 0 20 years Improvements to bin storage area £10,000 0 20 years Appendix 1.5 Easdale Options 5 Fixed Link – Additional support - Cost Estimates • Local ranger service, providing local employment. Based on 2 x full time employees, with duties to include managing visitor behaviour, littering, car parking etc where feasible Could extended to wider community duties on Easdale, Seil and Luing. • Trolleys based on SBS Trailers marina troller. 10 @ £400 plus sum to create two trolley stores, one located near car park and one centrally on Easdale (Hall?) • Quad bike costs based on a £5,000 for Honda quad bike and trailer plus £1,000 for storage shed and £2,000 for sundry items such as training, PPE, etc. Annual £500 towards servicing, fuel etc • Sum for improvements, e.g. hardstanding, fencing, for bin storage area on Easdale Page 92
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37 Current service Annual costs Capital costs Annual Income Life span Staff costs £450,000.00 Annual vessel and infrastructure maintenance £205,000.00 5 years remaining Annual costs towards bathymetric surveys and dredging £10,000.00 Income from ticket sales -£190,336.00 Totals £665,000.00 £0.00 -£190,336.00 • Staff costs include, 4 x skipper and crew, Technical Officer Ferries 25%, Admin Officer 15%, Marine Ops Manager 5% (includes pay, holiday pay, pension, training and Contracted staff costs) • Vessel and infrastructure costs based on average of costs incurred between FY's 2013 - 2023 includes for vessel maintenance, infrastructure maintenance, ticketing software, VHF licensing, crew PPE, safety checks, audits and inspections, CCTV, fuel etc. • Income based on financial year 22/23 ticket sales. • Annual dredging and survey costs based on percentage share of wider council framework contract. Appendix 2.1 Cuan Options Current service assumptions Page 93
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38 Replace vessel with Eilean Dhuira, same timetable Annual costs Capital costs Annual Income Life span Staff costs £450,000.00 5 - 10 years Annual vessel and infrastructure maintenance £280,000.00 Annual costs towards bathymetric surveys and dredging £10,000.00 Income from ticket sales -£190,336.00 Minor amendments to existing pier to suit new vessel and Equality Act requirements **** £1,500,000.00 25 years Totals £740,000.00 £1,500,000.00 £190,336.00 Appendix 2.2 Cuan Options Assumptions Eilean Dhuira on current timetable • Staff costs, dredging costs and income as previous page. • Annual vessel and maintenance costs based on Eilean Dhuiracosts in current location. • Slip improvements required for Eilean Dhiurabased on Iona slipway repairs at £650,000 for one slipway - doubled for two plus round up to include for additional costs to get plant/materials to Luing. • Eilean Dhuirahas 40 tonne capacity compared to Belnahuaat 15 tonnes. Will allow larger vehicles access to the island to support community projects. • Eilean Dhuirareplacement not anticipated in next 5 years, Eilean Dhuirawill have limited life span at point of relocation. Page 94
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39 Eilean Dhuira with extended timetable – 2 additional crew members Annual costs Capital costs Annual Income Life span Current staff costs £450,000.00 5 - 10 years Staff costs * 2 £175,000.00 Annual vessel and infrastructure maintenance £280,000.00 Annual costs towards bathymetric surveys and dredging £10,000.00 Income from ticket sales -£190,336.00 Minor amendments to existing pier to suit new vessel and Equality Act requirements **** £1,500,000.00 Totals £915,000.00 £1,500,000.00 £190,336.00 • Staff, maintenance, vessel and infrastructure costs as Appendix 2.1. • Assumed a minimum of 2 additional staff required to provide an extended timetable beyond current provision • Slip improvements required for Eilean Dhiurabased on Iona slipway repairs at £650,000 for one slipway - doubled for two plus round up to include for additional costs to get plant/materials to Luing. • Income based on financial year 22/23 ticket sales. Potential additional income not predicted. Appendix 2.3 Cuan Options Assumptions Eilean Dhuira with extended timetable Page 95
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40 Replace with hybrid vessel, new slipways, extended timetable (more staff) Annual costs Capital costs Annual Income Current staff costs £450,000.00 Staff costs * 2 £175,000.00 New vessel £17,220,000.00 New slipways and waiting room/crew room facilities at both sides £23,000,000.00 Annual vessel and infrastructure maintenance £10,000.00 Annual costs towards bathymetric surveys and dredging £10,000.00 Income from ticket sales £190,336.00 Totals £645,000.00 £40,220,000.00 £190,336.00 • Vessel costs based on MV Catriona, constructed in 2015. Unlikely this specific class is suitable for the route but provides a reasonable cost comparison for the construction of a hybrid vessel. • At least a minimum of 2 additional crew members required to operate a new vessel. • This option would require construction of new slipways, overnight berth and new waiting facilities. This is likely to require additional land purchase to complete. • This would present an opportunity to review fares and increase to reflect expenditure and increase capacity on the route. Income left at current rates for this report. Appendix 2.4 Cuan Options Assumptions New Hybrid Vessel Page 96
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41 Design and Build Fixed Link (High/Low level costs) Annual costs Capital costs Annual Income Life span Design and construction costs - low level £23,500,000.00 125 years Design and construction costs - high level £43,000,000.00 125 years Annual inspection and maintenance £5,000.00 2 x staff costs - options are possible ranger service for area if high level options selected or operators for low level swing bridge £70,000 as required Low Level Total £75,000 £23,500,000 125 years High Level Total £5,000 £43,000,000 125 years Appendix 2.5 Cuan Options Assumptions Fixed Link • High level bridge is anticipated to require meterage of new road on both approaches. New road would be twin track to provide optimum forward sight distance on approaches. • Low level bridge is anticipated to require a section of the bridge that will open to sea traffic. This will require a minimum of 2No staff members plus relief. • Any bridge would be designed to current DMRB standard for all classification of vehicles and be added to the Council’s bridge inspection list. • It should be noted that the existing roads in this area are reasonably weak and any solution that would likely increase the volume or load capacity of vehicles on the Islands of Luingand Seil may result in a need to invest further fund into the local road network to support usage. • This includes for both a fixed link or any replacement vessel with a great tonnage or capacity to carry more vehicles than at present. Page 97
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42 Option 1 2 3 4 5 Belnahua then low bridge Belnahua then E.D. same TT then low bridge Belnahua then E.D +TT then low bridge Belnahua then high bridge Belnahua then Hybrid Belnahua final service year 5 5 5 5 5 Eilean Dhuira first service year 0 6 6 0 0 Eilean Dhuira final service year 0 11 11 0 0 Hybrid Vessel Life Expectancy 0 0 0 0 30 Hybrid first service year 0 0 0 0 6 Hybrid final service year 0 0 0 0 36 Replacement Hybrid first service year 0 0 0 0 37 Replacement Hybrid final service year 0 0 0 0 67 Fixed link open (year 0 = never) 6 12 12 6 0 Select High Level (1) or Low Level (0) 0 0 0 1 1 Select Eilean Dhuira Timetable Current (1) or Extended (0) 1 1 0 1 1 Appendix 2.6 Cuan Options Assumptions Possible timings of option * Indicates year i.e. Year1, Year 6 etc. Year 0 = never Page 98
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MINUTES of MEETING of ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT AND INFRASTRUCTURE COMMITTEE held ON A HYBRID BASIS IN THE COUNCIL CHAMBER, KILMORY, LOCHGILPHEAD AND BY MICROSOFT TEAMS on THURSDAY, 19 DECEMBER 2024 Present: Councillor John Armour (Chair) Also Present: Councillor Jan Brown Councillor Graham Hardie Councillor Willie Hume Councillor Jim Lynch Councillor Tommy MacPherson Councillor Ian James MacQuire Councillor Luna Martin Councillor Kieron Green Councillor Ross Moreland Councillor Gary Mulvaney Councillor Alastair Redman Councillor William Sinclair Councillor Andrew Vennard Councillor Peter Wallace Attending: Kirsty Flanagan, Executive Director Stephen Hall, Consultant Alan Millar, Performance Manager Hugh O’Neill, Network and Standards Manager Scott Reid, Marine Operations Manager Stuart Watson, Assistant Network and Standards Manager Colin Young, Strategic Transport Delivery Officer Stuart McLean, Committee Manager Colin Buchanan, on behalf of Luing Community Council 1. APOLOGIES FOR ABSENCE Apologies for absence were received from Councillor Andrew Kain. DEPUTATION The Chair intimated that a request for a deputation to be heard by Luing Community Council had been received. It was unanimously agreed to hear from this deputation. The Committee heard from Colin Buchanan, Vice Convener of Luing Community Council, in relation to Marine Operations: Mainland Ferry Service which would be dealt with at Item 9 of the Agenda. The Chair thanked Colin Buchanan and advised that the submission would be considered under item 9 of the Agenda (Marine Operations: Mainland Ferry Service). 2. DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST There were no declarations of interest. 3. MINUTES The Minutes of the meeting of the Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee held on 12 September 2024 were approved as a correct record. Page 99
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4. ROUTE OPTIMISATION UPDATE The Committee gave consideration to a report providing an update on the Route Optimisation project. The Route Optimisation system will enable existing cyclical activities such as bin collection, grass cutting and gritting, to be tested for efficiency and, where possible, routes remodelled to be more efficient and effective. Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee – 1. considered the progress of the Route Optimisation project; 2. noted the delays to the initial progress plan and the new milestones; 3. noted that monthly progress updates would be provided to Elected Members from January 2025 via the RIS Weekly Briefings; and 4. noted that a further update report would be brought back to the next Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee meeting in March 2025 together with a demonstration of the system. (Reference: Report by Executive Director with responsibility for Roads and Infrastructure Services dated December 2024, submitted) 5. CEMETERY ASSET - ANNUAL REPORT The Committee gave consideration to a report providing the annual update on the current Argyll and Bute “active” cemetery portfolio of 63 sites - number of lairs available for sale and operational timescales within the Cemetery Development programme. The report also confirmed the current list of cemeteries subject to restrictions on the pre-sale of lairs. Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee – 1. noted the annual lairs sales figures and remaining availability; 2. noted the updated comments relevant to the Cemetery Development programme; and 3. agreed the updated list of sites, where the pre-sale of lairs is restricted. (Reference: Report by Executive Director with responsibility for Roads and Infrastructure Services dated December 2024, submitted) 6. REVIEW OF ROADS AND INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES - UPDATE The Committee gave consideration to a report providing an update on progress and next steps in relation to the Roads and Infrastructure Service Review, Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee – Page 100
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1. noted the content of the report; and 2. agreed to receive a further report on progress of the Roads and Infrastructure Service Review in March 2025 (Reference: Report by Executive Director with responsibility for Roads and Infrastructure Services dated December 2024, submitted) 7. SECOND DOMESTIC BIN REVIEW 2024 The Committee gave consideration to a report seeking approval for officers to carry out an online consultation exercise regarding second bins and the criteria that should be considered for these. Paper copies of the consultation will be available in the Council’s Customer Service Points for any person who is not able to complete the consultation online. The report also provided an update on the review of second bins. Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee – 1. agreed that officers carry out an online consultation exercise regarding second bins, over a 4 week period in the new year. The criteria that should be considered for these, with the detail of the consultation, being delegated to the Executive Director with overall responsibility for Roads and Infrastructure Services, in consultation with the Policy Lead for Roads, Transport and Amenity Services; 2. agreed that the second domestic bin review be paused to allow consultation to be undertaken on future eligibility of second bins; and 3. noted that a report on the outcome of the consultation would be brought back to a future Committee. (Reference: Report by Executive Director with responsibility for Roads and Infrastructure Services dated December 2024, submitted) 8. WASTE LANDFILL BAN UPDATE The Committee gave consideration to a report providing an update on the progress towards landfill ban compliance. The report also provided an update on financial implications in respect of the landfill ban and other waste issues. Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee considered and noted the content of the report. (Reference: Report by the Executive Director with responsibility for Roads and Infrastructure Services dated December 2024, submitted) Page 101
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9. MARINE OPERATIONS: MAINLAND FERRY SERVICE The Committee gave consideration to a report introducing the “Argyll & Bute Council Mainland Ferries Study – Comparative Analysis of Options for Council-run ferries” carried out by Caledonian Economics (Mainland Ferries Study). Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee – 1. thanked the Easdale and Luing Community Council representatives and residents for the high level of engagement and return regarding the questionnaires; 2. discussed the contents and implications of the Mainland Ferries Study, detailed at Appendix 1 to the submitted report; 3. approved the continuation of the feasibility study to progress a business case for the provision of infrastructure options to Easdale, including fixed links; 4. approved the inclusion of options to Luing in the feasibility study to continue to take advantage of economy of scale; and 5. acknowledged the ongoing need to continue to engage with residents and representatives of the communities on the Isle of Luing, Isle of Seil, and Easdale, in relation to council run ferry services and infrastructure. (Reference: Report by Executive Director with responsibility for Roads and Infrastructure Services, dated November 2024, submitted) 10. 20MPH SPEED LIMITS REPORT The Committee gave consideration to a report detailing the support offered by Transport Scotland to progress the 20mph speed limit project. Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee- 1. noted the Scottish Government had committed to creating a healthier, greener and safer Scotland and their aspiration is that the introduction of 20mph restrictions could help to contribute to these objectives – this is a national aspiration to be managed through local powers to amend speed limits rather than changing the national legislation; 2. welcomed the additional funding confirmed by Transport Scotland on 14 October 2024 for a Project Officer which would help to gather data necessary to allow the Council to make informed decisions going forward; 3. agreed that no decision would be made regarding the implementation of any speed restrictions at this time; and 4. agreed that as more detailed information becomes available, a further report would be provided to update Elected Members via Committee. Page 102
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(Reference: Report by Executive Director with responsibility for Roads and Infrastructure Services dated 16 November 2024, submitted) 11. TRANSPORT (SCOTLAND) ACT 2019, PART 6 PARKING PROHIBITIONS UPDATE REPORT The Committee gave consideration to a report providing an update on the introduction of enforcement of the parking prohibitions contained in Part 6 of the Transport (Scotland) Act 2019 and seeking agreement to revise the timescales from December 2024 to 3 March 2025. Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee – 1. agreed the revised timescale from December 2024 to 3 March 2025; 2. noted the amended process as outlined in paragraph 4.8 of the submitted report; and 3. requested that Officers explore options to identify areas where enforcement may cause traffic management problems and if possible report back to this Committee options to mitigate, including exemptions. (Reference: Report by Executive Director with responsibility for Roads and Infrastructure Services dated 11 November 2024, submitted). 12. ROADS RECONSTRUCTION BUDGET The Committee gave consideration to a report providing an update on future forecast capital funding for roads reconstruction and improvements. Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee noted the content of the report including the allocation of the provisional budget set out in the table at paragraph 3.6 of the submitted report. (Reference: Report by Executive Director with responsibility for Roads and Infrastructure Services dated November 2024, submitted) 13. DRAFT ACTIVE TRAVEL STRATEGY FOR CONSULTATION The Committee gave consideration to a report requesting approval to progress to consultation on the draft of the Council’s Active Travel Strategy. The draft Active Travel Strategy has been developed by Officers as instructed by this Committee on 1 June 2023. Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee – 1. considered and approved the draft Active Travel Strategy for a period of consultation; and Page 103
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2. instructed Officers to provide a further report to this Committee on completion of the consultation for members to consider and approve. (Reference: Report by Executive Director with responsibility for Development and Economic Growth dated December 2024, submitted) 14. ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT AND INFRASTRUCTURE COMMITTEE WORKPLAN The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee workplan was before the Committee for noting. Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee noted the content of the workplan. (Reference: Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee workplan dated December 2024, submitted) VALEDICTORY The Chair acknowledged that Jim Smith, Head of Roads and Infrastructure, had left the Council and noted his thanks on behalf of the Committee for all the work he had carried out during his time with the Council. The Chair recorded his personal thanks for Mr Smith’s support during his term as Shadow Policy Lead, and latterly as Policy Lead. He then welcomed Stephen Hall to the meeting. Mr Hall will take up post as the Interim Head of Roads and Infrastructure from 6 January 2025. 15. NOTICE OF MOTION UNDER STANDING ORDER 13 The following Notice of Motion Under Standing Order 13 was before the Committee for consideration – At its meeting on the 20th September 2024, the Strathclyde Concessionary Travel Scheme (SCTS) Joint Committee approved a new fare structure to come into effect from 1st April 2025. The new model based on half standard fare, with a fare cap set at £2.50 for a single and £4.00 for a return, is applied for wholly rural rail journeys and all ferry journeys. Currently, rail and ferry journeys under approximately 10 (nautical) miles are charged at £1.00 single and £1.50 return. This represents a fare increase of up to 165%, including on lifeline ferry routes and disproportionately impact on the elderly and most vulnerable members of our community. This Council: 1. Expresses deep concern about the fare increases that have been agreed, noting that residents of Argyll and Bute already face higher cost of living associated with rural and island life, and these changes disproportionately impact on the elderly and most vulnerable members of our community. Page 104
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2. Acknowledges demand and increasing operator fares will require SCTS funding reserves of £0.836M by the end of this current financial year 2024/2025 and that Strathclyde Concessionary Travel Scheme reimbursement costs continue to increase sharply. 3. Urges the Scottish Government to provide additional funding for the SCTS to support older and disabled residents traveling and phase in changes to the pricing over a number of years to mitigate the impact of changing to the new model. 4. Agrees that the Policy Lead for Roads & Infrastructure write to the First Minister, John Swinney MSP to highlight these concerns and request action to support elderly and vulnerable service users. Moved by Councillor Peter Wallace, seconded by Councillor John Armour. Decision The Environment, Development and Infrastructure Committee agreed the terms of the Motion and resolved accordingly. (Reference: Notice of Motion by Councillor Peter Wallace, seconded by Councillor John Armour, submitted) Page 105
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OFFICIAL OFFICIAL Community Council Report Covering Oban, Lorn, Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands – Covering January 2025 Service Demand & Recorded Crimes Per Beat Area LB23/24 Calls: 182, Crimes: 43 LB25 Calls: 21, Crimes: 4 LB26 Calls: 20, Crimes: 7 LB27 Calls: 49, Crimes: 16 LB28 Calls: 25, Crimes: 3 LB29 Calls: 10, Crimes: 0 LB30 Calls: 49, Crimes: 0 LB31 Calls: 8, Crimes: 1 LB32 Calls: 10, Crimes: 1 LB33 Calls: 10, Crimes: 1 LB34 Calls: 21, Crimes: 1 LB35/36 Calls: 91, Crimes: 35 LB37 Calls: 67, Crimes: 21 LB38 Calls: 15, Crimes: 1 LB39 Calls: 17, Crimes: 5 LB40 Calls: 25, Crimes: 7 LB41 Calls: 8 Crimes: 0 LB42 Calls: 89, Crimes: 25 LB43 Calls: 40, Crimes: 7 LB44 Calls: 23, Crimes: 4 LB45 Calls: 23, Crimes: 0 Total Calls: 804, Crimes: 182 Beat Area OLI Councils Served Beat Area MAKI Councils Served LB23 & L24 Oban Community Council LB35 & LB36 Campbeltown Community Council LB25 Luing Community Council Isle of Seil & Easdale Community Council Isle of Colonsay Community Council Kilmore & Kilbride Community Council Kilmelford & Kilninver Community Council LB37 West Kintyre Community Council Southend Community Council Laggan Community Council Gigha Community Council LB26 North Connel Community Council Ledaig Community Council Benderloch Community Council Barcaldine Community Council Ardchattan Community Council LB38 East Kintyre Community Council LB27 Dunbeg Community Council Connel Community Council Taynuilt Community Council LB39, 40, 41 Islay Community Council Jura Community Council (included within Beat 39) LB28 Dalmally Community Council Avich & Kilchrennan Community Council Glen Orchy & Innishail Community Council LB42 Lochgilphead Community Council North Knapdale Community Council Dunadd Community Council Craignish Community Council South Knapdale Community Council LB29 Appin Community Council Lismore Community Council LB43 Furnace Community Council West Loch Fyne Community Council Inveraray Community Council LB30, LB31, LB33 & LB34 Isle of Mull Community Council Isle of Iona (included within Beat 34) LB44 Tarbert Community Council LB32 Isle of Tiree Community Council Isle of Coll Community Council LB45 Ardrishaig Community Council Page 107 Agenda Item 10a
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OFFICIAL OFFICIAL Local Policing Priority Local Good News How can you help? • 13 Drug related seizures during January, as follows, as a result of foot patrols and vehicle stops. • Controlled Drugs: Class A – 4 seizures. • Controlled Drugs: Class B – 9 seizures. • Controlled Drugs: Class C – 0 seizures. • This has resulted in, at present, 12 detected cases being reported to the Procurator Fiscal. Help us keep these drugs off your streets - stop drug related crime by reporting any suspicions you may have either in person or anonymously via 101 or via crime stoppers online: Crimestoppers in Scotland | Crimestoppers (crimestoppers-uk.org) 0800 555 111 • 29 Acquisitive Crimes were recorded, again, continuing the downward trend. • 8 recorded Frauds in January – these continue to normally be through internet processes, be it buying things on Facebook, or engaging with people on the phone. • Remember to be fraud aware, the phone and internet are still the main access points for criminals to gain access to your banking/personal details. • There were also 3 reported cases of Theft by Shoplifting. Your local police would like for your Community Council to help us by following us on our social media channels and help us spread crime prevention advice and guidance. • 42 Road Traffic offences were detected during January. • 11 detected offences were due to driving under the influence of drink and or drugs. • The ‘Winter Safety Campaign’ will continue into February with the aim of detecting offenders and educating the public on the dangers and offences Your local police would like for your Community Council to help us with ensuring Road Safety by reporting anyone who is suspected of drink or drug driving within your community either in person via 101 or via crime stoppers online: Page 108
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OFFICIAL OFFICIAL associated with driving under the influence and road safety advice. • Adverse weather has meant that we have recently seen an increase in road traffic collisions. Further to the winter safety campaign, we will also focus our attention on informing the public regarding driving to road conditions and ensuring their cars are Winter ready Crimestoppers in Scotland | Crimestoppers (crimestoppers-uk.org) 0800 555 111 • 35 Recorded assaults during January including, as follows, Serious Assault – 0 Assault – No injury – 18 Assault – Injury – 5 Police Assault – 4 Assault against Retail Workers – 0 Emergency Workers - 6 • Targeting Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB) within our local policing plans remains a priority. • Patrols will continue with a view of identifying offenders and disrupting their activities. Your local police would like for your Community Council to help us with tackling Violent Crime by reporting any ASB or community concerns either in person via 101 or via crime stoppers online: Crimestoppers in Scotland | Crimestoppers (crimestoppers-uk.org) 0800 555 111 • Public Protection has numerous strands to it, ranging from concerns about a neighbour who might not be coping with their mental health to serious sexual assaults. The below figures relate to our more common call types during the month: Missing Person Calls – 8 Concern for Person calls – 40 Child Protection Calls – 8 Sexual Offences Calls – 4 Report to your local Police any concerns you may have regarding potential victims of Domestic Abuse or vulnerable persons, who may be being exploited or who may just need additional crime prevention support. Please report this to us either in person or anonymously. Page 109
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OFFICIAL OFFICIAL Issues & Questions Raised by Community Councils & Coucillors to the Communities Team in January 2025 *N.B. Where the issue is applicable to a section above, this is included there You Raised: Campbeltown raised the topic of speed warning signs at the entrance of the town, following Transport Scotland directing them to Police for a view. This was passed to the Road Policing Unit to link with all parties directly to further discussion into this matter. Local MSPs have raised concerns of constituents regarding potential speeding at both Inveraray and Taynuilt. Again, our Road Policing Unit have had the information fed into them for targeted patrols and speed checks. Information has also been passed regarding applicable ownership of speed reduction measures / technology, so that these stakeholders can be engaged with directly by MSPs to further review applicable opportunities. General News: Your local Policing area has seen a lot of resource placed into the ongoing search for missing person, Clare Halliday; missing from the Isle of Mull since January 7th. A lot of our backroom functions that normally deal with other matters are currently committed to continuing the progress of this search, in an effort to return Ms Halliday to her loved ones. We appreciate your patience whilst the community teams are otherwise engaged and might not be quite as quick at responding to enquiries as usual whilst this search is still ongoing. The recent Red Weather Event brought substantial challenges to the Police as we supported agencies in tackling the response and subsequent fallout from the storm. We have detailed business continuity plans that are implemented in such circumstances and were able to continue service for our communities despite the nature of what was faced. Useful Links/Contacts: • Argyll and Bute Communtiy Directory - https://abcd.scot/ - this excellent site signposts you to all available services in your area, be it advocacy, counselling, debt advice or animal welfare; • Crimestoppers – Crimestoppers in Scotland | Crimestoppers (crimestoppers-uk.org) 0800 555 111 • Scottish Partnership Against Rural Crime – www.scottishparc.co.uk • Women’s Aid - Home - Women's Aid (womensaid.org.uk) • Citizens Advice – 0808 164 6000 & https://www.abcab.org.uk/ - Argyll and Bute Citizens Advice Bureau is a local, independent charity which provides free, impartial and confidential advice and information to give you the tools you need to sort out any issues or problems; Page 110
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OFFICIAL OFFICIAL • Argyll and Bute Council Trading Standards – 01546 605 519 • Argyll and Bute Council – https://www.argyll-bute.gov.uk/my-council/how-contact-us • Transport Scotland – road related incidents and road closures - https://www.traffic.gov.scot/traffic-information/incidents • Scottish Water - https://www.scottishwater.co.uk/Help-and-Resources/Contact-Us 0800 0778 778 • NHS24 (including mental health support) – 111 or https://www.nhsinform.scot/ • Scam Share Bulletin Trading Standards Scotland Bulletin 6 June (mailchi.mp) • Age Scotland- Demetia Information and help- https://www.agescotland.org.uk/ • Neighbourhood Watch - sign up to to receive local alerts and bulletins for your community area - https://neighbourhoodwatchscotland.co.uk/#0 • Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) - https://www.sepa.org.uk/ - for pollution, environmental safety, flooding, waste disposal/carrying enquiries Follow us on Social Media and help share local appeals and education messages: • Facebook - Police Scotland Argyll and West Dunbartonshire • X (formerly Twitter) – PSOSArgyllBute and PSOS ArgWestDunb Please contact the officer below with any feedback or concerns raised at the meeting for further considerations or police action. Report Completed by: PC Jonathan Bruce Contact for queries: Matthew.Shaw@scotland.police.uk & Keith.Alison@Scotland.police.uk Page 111
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Oban, Lorn and the Isles CPG Briefing Report Q3 2024/25 Performance & Activity Report From: 1st October 2024 To: 31st December 2024 Page 113 Agenda Item 10b
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Introduction Welcome to the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Community Board Performance Report. This performance report is designed to provide citizens, stakeholders and partners with information relating to Community Board based activity undertaken by the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service. Whilst using historic statistical benchmarking data, consideration must be taken of the random nature of fire related incidents and events, and how this can pose difficulties in interpreting emerging patterns and trends. This is of specific relevance where Community Board level data is analysed due to the small number of actual incidents/events that occur in Community Board areas. However, regardless of statistical anomalies, emerging patterns and trends in fire related incidents and events can assist the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service and Community Planning Partners plan and implement preventative intervention initiatives to target reducing fire related incidents and events. Local Firefighter Training Plan Below is a list of subjects the operational crews have been focusing on within this period. Each subject has been covered both practically and theoretically and recorded in the Fire Service Training recording system. Training Subjects October/November/December • BA – Quarterly Wear, Technical & Practical Session • Pump & Ladder Drills • RTC and Extrication Q3 – Cutting Techniques & Casualty Rescue • Water Awareness – Casualty Care • SWAH – Tier 1, Single & Multi Edge Work Restraint • TFOC Farms Module • TFOC Local & Civil Disturbances Module • HFSV Module Page 114
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Accidental Dwelling Fires (ADF) Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Oban North & Lorn 1.7 0 1 Oban South & the Isles 2 1 1 Community Board Total 3.7 1 2 ADF Casualties Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Oban North & Lorn 0.3 0 0 Oban South & the Isles 0.3 1 0 Community Board Total 0.6 1 0 Deliberate Secondary Fire Setting Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Oban North & Lorn 0.3 1 0 Oban South & the Isles 0 0 0 Community Board Total 0.3 1 0 Fires in Non-Domestic Property Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Oban North & Lorn 1 1 1 Oban South & the Isles 1.7 2 3 Community Board Total 2.7 3 4 Page 115
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Casualties from Non-Fire Emergencies Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Oban North & Lorn 2 0 2 Oban South & the Isles 3.7 3 2 Community Board Total 5.7 3 4 Unwanted Fire Alarm Signals Ward 3 Year Average 2023/24 2024/25 Oban North & Lorn 12 3 7 Oban South & the Isles 23 15 12 Community Board Total 35 18 19 Incidents/Activities of Note Drowning Incident Review (DIR) We continue to work with partners across Argyll & Bute to support the Drowning Incident Review. This allows us to work together to establish ways in which we can reduce the risks around our waters in Argyll and Bute. Road & Water Safety campaigns Road Safety: We have worked closely with Oban High School in delivering a Road Safety Presentation, including RTC VR input to pupils who have their driving licence or are in the process of obtaining it. This included valued input from Oban Blue Watch and EWDAB (East & West Dunbartonshire and Argyll & Bute) Community Action Team (CAT). A similar programme has now been timetabled for next year. Oban CAT Team has also worked closely with a pupil from Oban High School who was struck by a car in Oban during a lunchtime last year. The young person (YP) sustained injuries that required surgery. The YP has recovered well and enjoyed a firefighter for a day experience at Oban Community Fire Station. The YP also assisted us in promoting road safety by sharing his story in an interview. This was shared, with permission, on our media page. We continue to work closely with schools delivering vital Road Safety messages, using our road safety floorboards in primary schools. The VR Program will now be made available to secondary schools throughout Argyll & Bute. Several CAT Team members are undergoing Child Seat Training in January. This will see the CAT Team putting on events where people who use child safety seats have the chance to get them checked to ensure they are fitted properly and, with the assistance of Police Scotland, receive road safety advice. Page 116
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We are also working in close partnership with Police Scotland and the Institute of Advanced Motoring (IAM) to develop road safety hubs within Argyll & Bute. Oban, Dunoon and Campbeltown Fire Stations are locations in which this is being developed. Water Safety: We continue to participate in Partnership Approach to Water Safety (PAWS) and our Community Action Team are already delivering Water Safety Scotland Ice Safety presentations across schools in Argyll & Bute. The presentation was delivered through a hybrid approach of face-to-face presentations and online via Microsoft Teams. This allows us to engage with the remote schools throughout Argyll & Bute, including the islands, so that remote and rural schools benefit from the same safety messages as larger schools. Community Engagement Activities • Post Domestic Incident Response (PDIR) following every domestic incident. • Continue to deliver Fire Safety advice via HFSVs (Home Fire Safety Visits). • Working closely with Sensory Impairment officers throughout Argyll & Bute providing much needed assistance to people with complex hearing and sight issues. Equipment is being made available to those in need, along with a HFSV being conducted. • Representation on Multi Agency Risk Assessment Conferences (MARAC) for those affected by domestic violence. • Supporting Developing the Young Workforce through Careers Days in Oban, Tobermory, Lochgilphead, Dunoon and Rothesay High Schools. • Supporting Partnership Approach to Water Safety (PAWS) group and engaging with the public: #RESPECTTHEWATER campaign. • We engaged with community groups utilising the Winter Thematic Action Plan (TAP) • The annual Bonfire & Fireworks Presentations sessions were delivered by CAT in conjunction with Police Scotland to schools across Argyll & Bute, including Dunoon Grammar, Oban High School and Lochgilphead Joint Campus. This approach was met with enthusiasm. We also engaged with remote and rural schools over Microsoft Teams, where the safety message was well received. • We continue to support MCR Pathways in secondary schools. Several SFRS employees give up their time to support young people for an hour a week throughout term time, engaging with and mentoring each young person to make informed choices. • In Oban, the CAT team is supporting Planet Youth engagement. • Our partnership working continues with Oban, Lorn and the Isles Alcohol & Drug Forum, with quarterly meetings being held in the conference room at Oban Community Fire Station. • We continue to work alongside the Ukrainian Multi-Agency Resettlement Programme within Argyll & Bute. • SFRS continues to support Violence Against Woman Group (VAWG) in Argyll & Bute. • In partnership with Sensory Impairment, SFRS are delivering vital safety messages into Sheltered Housing & Independent Housing complexes throughout Argyll & Bute. • SFRS continues to support and assist in Adult Support & Protection (ASP) meetings, alongside partner agencies, to ensure safety measures are in place for vulnerable people throughout Argyll & Bute. • Oban CAT Team has been busy engaging with local Scout Groups, assisting and delivering vital safety information to allow local young people to obtain their Fire Safety Badge and Communication Badge. • Members of the Argyll & Bute CAT Team have been involved in Child Support Training and Trauma Informed Training, delivered in conjunction with partner agencies. • Oban CAT Team, with the assistance of Oban Wholetime Crews, helped the local charity Home Start Lorn to collect and deliver presents to be donated to the local Christmas Appeal in Oban. • Oban CAT and Fire Crews are working closely with the local LGBTQIA+ community. We are showing our support by bringing the Firefighter Experience to them. We have extended the Firefighter Experience Day to allow members of the LGBTQIA+ community the opportunity to come up and learn vital lifesaving skills and understand what it is like to be a Firefighter over several sessions. Page 117
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Firefighter Experience Day: The Oban CAT Team has been working closely with Live Argyll, Oban High School and Developing the Young Workforce (DYW) to develop the Firefighter Experience Day. We have now extended this to a 4-week program. Most of the pupils involved have attendance issues, are care-experienced and/ or have behavioural issues. The programme brings these pupils into a disciplined environment where they work as a team, rely on that team and are pushed out of their comfort zones. They attend the station once a week, learn skills including CPR, Trauma Recognition, Water Safety, Road Safety and Drill Ground Activities. After each session they are given a written assessment. After the 4 weeks, these are checked and marked. This information is collated and submitted to the school and works towards an award. These sessions have proved very successful, to the extent that we are delivering a programme in Dunoon for 10 pupils from Dunoon Grammar in February. We are hoping to develop this programme and bring it to other towns in Argyll & Bute EWDAB LSO Activities • Ongoing On-call recruitment campaigns – Participation in Practical Selection Tests for new candidates as well as successful completion of Task and Task Management by new On-call Firefighters across the area. • SFRS personnel across EWDAB took part in supporting the 16 Days of Activism, tackling gender-based violence against women and girls. • Recruitment process for two vacancies within the Community Action Team, concluded with the appointments of Gerrard Ralston (Salen Volunteer Leader) and Lisa Cox (previously CSA in PKAD LSO) as two new Community Safety Advocates in our team. We extend a warm welcome to them both. • Our Christmas Gift Appeal reached out to partners and communities across Argyll & Bute, allowing us to collect toys to distribute to children, in partnership with Home-Start Lorn. Our thanks to all who supported the appeal. Home Fire Safety Our new Home Fire Safety Visit (HFSV) policy and associated application will go live on Wednesday 12 February. In preparation of the new policy going live, Stations have been managing pending lists and actioning HFSV requests. Referrals for the public and partners We will continue to support our partner agencies, to assist in this move. The current links to CSET (referral platform) will be replaced on our external website, members of the public and partners will then request a HFSV online via the new app. This will go live during February. Social media content and communications to partners will also be issued to highlight the changes to our criteria and processes. We will also invite partners to attend Microsoft Teams training sessions, to support this transition. One of the main highlights being SFRS commitment to protecting personal data in accordance with legislation, it is imperative that all data sharing containing personal information of individuals such as name and address etc., is transmitted to and from us via the new HFSV Portal or by Egress Secure Email. Therefore unfortunately, we are now unable to accept referrals via emails To register for use of the new SFRS referral app, please contact our Safer Homes Team for support. Email - SFRS.HFSVadministrators@firescotland.gov.uk and one of the Safer Homes Team members will be in touch to provide further information. Page 118
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1 Argyll & Bute Community Planning Partnership Area Community Planning Group Partnership update Date: February 2025 Partner update – Public Health The Public Health team would like to share some aspects of their current work. The Argyll and Bute Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA), compiled by the Public Health Intelligence team, was published in December. The JSNA is a systematic approach to assess health and social care needs in the population based on available data. The requirement for the HSCP to consider the needs of the population and service-users is embedded with the Public Bodies (Joint Working) (Scotland) Act 2014. It is an essential foundation to inform commissioning and service planning and provides an evidence base for the next Joint Strategic Plan and Joint Strategic Commissioning Plan. Resources & Publications — Living Well. Community Link Workers The Argyll and Bute Community Links project is expanding in 2025. Recruitment for new Community Link Workers is currently underway. This service is dedicated to assisting individuals facing social, financial, and practical difficulties. It connects people with both national and community-based support, equipping them with the essential resources needed to navigate their situations and access appropriate support and services. https://www.nhshighland.scot.nhs.uk/news/2025/01/new- contract-and-expansion-for-community-link-working-service-in-argyll-and-bute/ Introducing the Mental Health Hub – Living Well We are delighted to announce the launch of Mental Health Hub – Living Well in Argyll and Bute, a new digital resource for you to share with colleagues. This hub is a dedicated space where you can access trusted national support services available across Scotland, with a particular focus on Argyll and Bute. It includes helplines, practical self-help tools, and resources to provide support. Page 119 Agenda Item 10c
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2 Designed to promote mental wellbeing and prevent suicide, the hub aims to make it easier to navigate the vast number of available services. It provides a clear, user- friendly way to signpost to the support available to communities in Argyll and Bute. Developed with input from local organisations, the hub is designed to empower individuals, families, and professionals to access support tailored to local needs. For further details, please contact: olena.mishanina@nhs.scot Tel: 07483320722 Mental Health Awareness and Suicide Prevention Training The Public Health team is proud to continue supporting mental health awareness and suicide prevention training for people who live or work in Argyll and Bute. Several training sessions are scheduled until the end of the financial year: Applied Suicide Intervention Skills Training (ASIST): ASIST training is being run in Islay in January, Oban in February and Bute in March. Ask, Tell Workshops can be delivered online or in person upon request, making them flexible and accessible to suit the needs of communities. For further information on both please email nhsh.ab-sptraining@nhs.scot . Youth Mental Health First Aid Training will run in January, February, and March. Due to high demand, we are also planning an extra cohort in February. To sign up: Book for February Book for March Alcohol and Drugs Partnership (ADP) Prevention and Early Intervention – Planet Youth Planet Youth is all about communities acting in the best interest of children and young people to make Argyll and Bute a great place to live. It is a community-based approach focused on improving young people’s health, wellbeing, and relationships by working with parents, carers, schools, communities and organisations. Planet Youth originated in Iceland, which went from having the highest rates of teen smoking, alcohol and drug use across Europe to the lowest. The Planet Youth team are running a comms campaign from Jan-March/April to promote their health topic leaflets for parents and carers. The Planet Youth team are delivering a ‘Risk and Protective Factors for Children and Young People’ live Webinar for any interested adult community members in A&B. Date tbc: argyllandbute@planetyouth.scot Page 120
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3 Families Affected by Alcohol and Drugs Scottish Families Affected by Alcohol and Drugs (SFAD) in collaboration with stakeholders are developing a partnership plan informed by gathering evidence from those in services, people personally impacted and professionals working within the community to reduce alcohol and drug harms. The plan will outline priorities to embed a whole family approach through local organisations and services with governance, monitoring and evaluation, and ongoing community engagement. Recovery Orientated Systems of Care (ROSC) Lomond and Argyll Advocacy Service provide specific independent advocacy support to people affected by alcohol and drugs with an extended presence in Argyll and Bute. https://laas.org.uk/contact-us/ An analysis of the interviews conducted by Scottish Drugs Forum with families, service providers and people with lived experience of Medically Associated Treatment (MAT) will be submitted to Public Health Scotland in April. The ADP submitted feedback on the consultation of the Right to Addiction Recovery (Scotland) Bill in December. Alcohol and Drug Partnership Strategy and Health Needs Assessment The reviewing and development of the ADP Strategy is almost complete. Led by a steering group, a consultant held 23 stakeholder interviews and three workshops. The final draft will be presented at the next ADP Partnership meeting. In Dec/Jan an online survey was used to gather the views of people living and working in Argyll and Bute asking about community priorities and what differences or changes would indicate that drug or alcohol related harm is being reduced. Alcohol Brief Intervention Training Alcohol Screening and Brief Interventions (ABIs) are effective and evidence-based early intervention for those individuals who are drinking at hazardous and harmful levels. Training dates to learn how to deliver Alcohol Brief are bookable on Turas: https://turasdashboard.nes.nhs.scot/ Naloxone Training Administering Naloxone can reverse the effects of an Opioid Overdose. Training on how to use Naloxone is planned for Helensburgh and Dunoon. For more information, please contact Kirsteen Menzies, Tel. 07900146571. GP Training Page 121
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4 Bespoke training sessions for GPs, designed in consultation with our GP representative and the Drug Related Deaths group will be provided by the Scottish Drugs Forum. This will cover Gabapentin, Ketamine and Benzodiazepines. For further details, please contact: nhsh.argyllandbuteadp@nhs.scot Screening inequalities grants funding We are delighted to announce that Screening Inequalities funding has been awarded to Argyll and Bute. This is being used to address barriers and facilitate access across the screening and treatment pathway to reduce inequalities in screening and improve health outcomes. Small grants were offered to organisations working with the people less likely to participate in the NHS Screening Programmes to promote screening in ways which will benefit their clients, such as to facilitate community events, provide information sessions and make culturally appropriate promotion materials which reflect the needs of communities. End of the Waverley Care contract NHS Highland’s contract with Waverley Care was due to end in December 2024. Following completion of a detailed review and exploration of options for future delivery, a decision was made to bring the services in-house. NHS Highland worked closely with Waverley Care to ensure a smooth transition of services. The Argyll and Bute Health Improvement Team are delighted to announce that Debbie Lees from Waverley Care has joined them, with the remaining staff joining the Health Improvement Team in North Highland. Debbie will bring her experience from Waverley Care to work in Argyll & Bute on developing sexual health promotion and the prevention of poor sexual health. The condoms by post service has transferred to the HIRS Team in North Highland and promotion materials for this service is being printed to be shared. The weblink is: Argyll & Bute HSCP Free Condoms by Post Living Well Networks The existing Living Well Networks (LWNs) are for partners with an interest in building healthy communities. They provide an opportunity for partners to come together to find out what issues matter to local communities; to plan activities and events together; and to network with individuals, services and organisations with an interest in improving health. Argyll and Bute HSCP Public Health team has provided funding for the network coordination time for a number of years. Over the past few years, there have been changes within HSCP structures, including the refreshed Living Well Programme Board and these transformations are continuing. The way people access information and support has also undergone changes as are the opportunities for communities to come to engage and plan community activity. As such, a decision has been made to bring the existing Living Page 122
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5 Well Network coordination to an end. We encourage the networks to consider their future direction. They can choose to continue without the funded coordination or explore the option of self-sustainability, allowing them to maintain their meetings and ongoing networking. The multi-partner initiative, Community Assets for Living Well is also focused on promoting healthy communities and work is ongoing to explore how this translates into work within local communities. This includes plans to further improve the Argyll and Bute community directory by developing a centralised and accessible platform for health and wellbeing information, resources, support, and services. Health, wellbeing and support service information can still be accessed via Argyll and Bute’s Community Directory on https://abcd.scot . We would like to express our sincere gratitude to our past and present coordinators: Dee James/Nicola Hall from Argyll and Bute Rape Crisis, Fiona Kalache/Lynn Johnstone from Mid Argyll Youth Development Services, Tracy Chambers from Kintyre Link Club, and Independent coordinators Carol Flett and Veronica Ferguson. REPORT AUTHOR AND CONTACT Author Names: Angela Coll, Health Improvement Senior Email: nhsh.abhealthimprovement@nhs.scot Page 123
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We have 97 clients at the moment. We have 16 new carers and we have 1 carer on the waiting list. We are now providing 195hrs per week in total, 54hrs a week are for Care at Home, paid for by Social Work or Self-Directed Support. The service on Tiree has stalled a wee bit due to staffing issues, but we have just advertised for new staff on the island. Hopefully the service will be up and running again. The service on Mull is growing, we now have 5 staff covering the island and are providing 75hrs per week. We are also receiving more referrals for respite on the Isle of Seil too, so we are getting out to the remote and rural areas of Oban, Lorn and the Isles. We are also in the process of running a pilot for Gypsy/Traveller Unpaid Carers covering workshops on basket weaving. The aim is to get a group of Gypsy/Traveller Unpaid Carers to meet in a group setting doing an activity that is part of their culture. Joan Best Crossroads North Argyll Page 125 Agenda Item 10d
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Oban and Lorn and the Islands Living Well Network 29/01/2025 Funding ending March 2025. The Living Well Networks in Argyll and Bute will not be funded by HSCP after the end of March this year and so I will finish in my current role as Living Well Network Coordinator for Oban, Lorn and the Islands on 31st March 2025. I would like to thank everyone for their support over the past 10 years, it has been a true pleasure being your Living Well Network Coordinator. I would also like to thank people for their good wishes and very kind words. Two Network Meetings in February and March As Living Well Network Coordinator for Oban, Lorn and the Islands, I am planning two final Network Meetings, both will be by Zoom. Wednesday 12th February from 11am till 12 noon. At this meeting we will look at what a Network without Coordinator funding might look like and what I as the coordinator can do to support that. Friday 21st March from 10am till 12 noon. All Network Members will have a few minutes to share information about the work they do. Hopefully this will be a valuable networking meeting. E-mail list of Living Well Network Members The current e-mail list of Living Well Network Members will be handed to the HSCP Public Health Team on 31st March 2025. The Public Health Team will use this to send out their information unless you opt out. The Network will need to create a new e-mail list for use by current Living Well Network Members after the end of March 2025. This list could be shared so 3rd sector organisations etc can circulate information. This will be discussed at the meeting on 12th February. If you would like to be included in the e-mail list that will be created for use after the end of March, please e-mail me on tcmhwn@gmail.com giving your full name, name of organisation and your role/job title. Carol Flett Living Well Network Coordinator 07753218327 Page 127 Agenda Item 10e
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Report Oban, Lorn and the Isles Partner Update Paper Argyll and Bute Third Sector Interface Date 4th February 2025 Prepared by Petra Pearce, Third Sector Support Adviser, OLI Argyll and Bute Resilience and Transformation Fund The TSI on behalf of the Argyll and Bute LAG launched a small, targeted fund aimed at supporting Argyll and Bute’s Third Sector Organisations (TSOs), specifically those who can be classified as community anchor organisations, to transform the way they work at a time of significant financial challenge. The fund was Launched on 24th January applications closed on 3rd February 2025 at 10am. Other sources of funding can also be accessed via https://argylltsi-funding.org.uk/ Day Services for Older People Review The Integration Joint Board in March 2024 requested a full review of day services and day supports for older adults in Argyll and Bute. The direction was to carry out this review removing the threat of cuts or service closure from the existing services. The financial situation of the IJB in line with other IJBs however is one of increasing costs and demands and reduced allocation of funding, meaning that overall savings need to be made. The timeline is to complete the review in mid-2025. The TSI on behalf of the HSCP has commissioned a local research agency (GLIC) to map and audit services with the intention of supporting the development of a new community-based approach to Day Supports and Day Services for Older Adults in Argyll and Bute that reduces the disparities in service provision across different localities. Volunteer of the Year 2025 Nominations for the TSI Volunteer of the Year 2025 awards are now open. This annual event is designed to recognise the outstanding work done by individuals and groups across the whole of Argyll and Bute. This year’s event will be held at the Rosslea Hall Hotel in Rhu. On Friday 6th June 2025, 3pm-6pm. Whether it is a friend, family member, or group that has made a difference, now is the time to give them the recognition they deserve. Nominations are open until 18th April 2025. Further information on how to nominate can be found at https://voyargyllbute.co.uk/ Wellbeing Development Manager The TSI hosts a Wellbeing Development Manager post funded by the HSCP and Macmillan Cancer Support under the Living Well Workstream. The postholder is focussing on developing ways of working that promotes wellbeing in communities by building sustainable and trusting local partnerships. There are currently three workstreams. Page 129 Agenda Item 10f
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The first, called the Art of Hosting, focuses on spreading the tools needed to have meaningful conversations about the choices, challenges and solutions facing our communities. The second is bringing about a Walking Development post in conjunction with Paths for All. The third workstream is looking at building joint and integrated referral and information processes to make it easier to access the support people need and this project is called One Front Door. More information on all of this can be found here: https://www.argylltsi.org/living-well- partnership/ Winter Welcome Spaces A list of venues providing access to winter welcome spaces can be found here: https://www.argylltsi.org/warm-spaces/ Page 130
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Principal and Chief Executive: Martin Jones www.argyll.uhi.ac.uk UHI Argyll is a trading name of Argyll College Ltd a charity registered in Scotland No SC026685 Registered address: West Bay, Dunoon, PA23 7HP UHI Argyll – Oban: Update for Oban, Lorn and the Isles Community Planning Group meeting 12/2/2025 Semester two Semester 2 began on Monday 20th January. We are offering the following January-start courses at our Oban centre (some other centres have additional practical courses on offer): • NQ Access to Further Education, SCQF level 4. Full time, short course (3 days/week for 11 weeks). Available at all UHI Argyll centres. • NC Horticulture, SCQF level 5. Full time, single semester course (3 days/week for 17 weeks). Available at Dunoon centre only. • NPA Games Development, SCQF level 5. Part-time (Thursdays) for 17 weeks. Available at all UHI Argyll centres. • PDA Technology Enabled Care, SCQF level 7. Part-time: 4 hours/week for 17 weeks. Available at all UHI Argyll centres. • Health and Social Care: Administration of Medication PDA. Part-time for 6 months. Available at all UHI Argyll centres. As always, there is the option to infill onto many of our other courses that run for the full academic year. Applicants can choose a single unit or several units and should contact their local centre to enquire about this. Commercial courses We are offering commercial courses on the following dates: • Personal Licence: 3rd March (full day), 7th April (full day), 9th and 16th April (evenings) • Elementary Food Hygiene: 10th March (full day), 31st March (full day), 12th and 19th April (evenings), 28th April (full day) First Aid training can be booked by contacting the local centre. Open events/taster sessions Instead of a single open day, we held taster events so that potential applicants could find out more about our courses. Below is a list of events that we held prior to the start of semester two: • Garden Design workshop (online) • Plant propagation workshop (Helensburgh) • Horticulture Courses at UHI Argyll, information session (online) • Maritime Rope Workshop (Oban) • Introduction to Plantsmanship (online) • Access to Further Education, information session (online) • Computer Games Development workshop (online) • Page 131 Agenda Item 10g
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Principal and Chief Executive: Martin Jones www.argyll.uhi.ac.uk UHI Argyll is a trading name of Argyll College Ltd a charity registered in Scotland No SC026685 Registered address: West Bay, Dunoon, PA23 7HP We also have an online event scheduled for various dates later in the academic year: • Childhood, Youth, Community Development and Children’s Rights online workshop: 6th March; 1st May; 7th August; 2nd October. Timings for all dates are 6.30-7.30pm. Theresa Bain Cluster Centre Manager UHI Argyll Theresa.Bain@uhi.ac.uk Page 132
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Date: 22 January 2025 Argyll and Bute Climate Action: developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. 1.0 Purpose The purpose of this report is to provide an update on the Community Planning Partnership’s Argyll and Bute Climate Action project: developing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. 2.0 Recommendations The CPG is asked to note the approach and status of the project outlined in the report and to provide any comments or feedback to the project manager. 3.0 Background The CPP sub-group working on climate change is the Climate Change Working Group. Its current focus is producing a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for Argyll and Bute. Argyll & the Isles Coast and Countryside Trust (ACT) are the employing body for the Climate Change Project Manager leading on the process, and the post (0.8 FTE) is funded by the CPP from end October 2023 to October 2025. This update sets out the current position. 4.0 Detail 4.1 Progress The draft strategy was presented to the Climate Change Working Group, the CPP Full Partnership and Area CPGs over September to November 2024, with requests for feedback and comments including appropriate engagement opportunities. Based on the feedback received, a revised draft was submitted to the CPP Management Committee. The CPP Management Committee approved the revised draft at its meeting of 6 December 2024, and copies of the executive summary and appendix of local climate Page 133 Agenda Item 11a
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trends accompany this update. The full set of appendices can be found at https://www.act-now.org.uk/cpp The intention thereafter is to work up the action plan and pilot projects, including seeking funding for projects, with partners across the region. This is where input at Area level would be especially useful and the project officer would welcome advice from Area CPGs on the most appropriate groups in their respective areas to contact. The CPP agreed that the strategy should align with the three CPP outcomes (Housing, Transport Infrastructure and Community Wellbeing), that it should focus on action within its own agency to control or influence, and, in line with the risk scoping and gap and opportunity analysis, priority areas for action should be: o Infrastructure (including natural infrastructure) o Policy Influence o Procurement and Supply Chain o Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training o Risk/Economic Assessment o Skills Development o Crosscutting/Other The Management Committee noted that development of the action plan would likely reflect partners’ capacity to engage over and above their normal core work, and agreed that the Committee should provide direction as the action plan develops on the balance between playing to the CPP partners’ strengths or seeking to address gaps and weaknesses. The Management Committee We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate 4.2 Next Steps Immediate next steps are: • Produce a short easy-to read summary plus a version suitable for young people. • Develop a broader programme of engagement, including Area level • Ongoing mapping, local impact projections and risk assessment • December – February action plan and project development, ongoing risk assessment informed by engagement • March first draft of action plan to Climate Change Working Group Andy Macpherson, Climate Change Project Manager For more information, please contact: Andy Macpherson andy@act-now.org.uk Page 134
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Executive Summary Climate change is one of the most serious threats that we face in Scotland. Rising temperatures, drier summers, wetter winters, sea level rise, and an increased risk of flooding, will all affect our lives. There is a global need to take action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions which are responsible, but changes in climate will not be completely eliminated by these actions. We also need to find ways of adapting to the effects of climate change. We make Argyll and Bute climate ready by acting together to understand and adapt to our changing climate. It has been developed through an engagement process managed by the Argyll Countryside Trust on behalf of Argyll & Bute’s Community Planning Partnership, Climate Working Group, with funding thanks to Argyll and Bute Council, NHS Highland, NatureScot and Argyll & Bute Third Sector Interface. A climate change strategy for Argyll & Bute Argyll & Bute Climate Action It forms part of Argyll & Bute’s Outcomes Improvement Plan for 2024 – 2034 which focusses on improving the outcomes of Transport, Housing and Community Wellbeing. This is a strategy and action plan for Argyll & Bute. A region wide, community led, net-zero, climate change resilient, adaptation plan, in support of the vision that: Page 135
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The heavy rain in early October 2023 caused £15m damage to infrastructure (mainly roads and bridges) in parts of Argyll & Bute Now and into the future, we want a thriving Argyll & Bute where our collective choices and actions enhance our continued wellbeing in a changing climate. Our climate change strategy seeks to tackle climate change, by working together to be: Climate friendly: Reduce Argyll & Bute’s greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change (mitigation). Climate Ready: Resilient and adapted to unavoidable climate change (adaptation), and Climate Just: Ensure all of our communities are included. 80% of the population of Argyll & Bute lives within 1km of the coast (97% within 10km of coast), and we have over 200km of road within 25m of the sea (at high tide). Page 136
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Climate Risk Impact Warmer, wetter winters: Increased rainfall volume and intensity Increased landslides, flooded water courses and more surface water Hotter, drier summers: higher average and higher peak temperatures, increased heatwave frequency and longer drought periods higher risk of human and animal heat stress, illness and mortality, crop failure, wildfires and freshwater scarcity More severe, and more variable weather events: Less predictable but more frequent storms, increased variability in wind speed and direction, higher peak wind speeds, higher rainfall intensity windblow, forest damage, road blockage, power line damage/power cuts, property damage, flooding, landslides. Sea level rise and storm surges: increased coastal erosion coastal infrastructure damage and loss, coastal retreat or protection cost Multi-hazards affecting people, species and habitats: Combination of hazards compounding climate risks and impacts. Single actions less likely to address mitigation or adaptation. Solutions needs to maximise multiple benefits and work with natural processes. Increased climate unpredictability Climate forecasts less predictable, actions need to be based on worst-case scenarios, resilience more dependent on agile and diverse actions. Our strategy identifies the key climate risks impacting on Argyll & Bute and the areas in which we can take action to address them: Page 137
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Areas for Action Infrastructure Addressing demand and impacts of better transport infrastructure to reduce reliance on private cars and provide for those who do not have a car. Enhancing communications and grid infrastructure through maximising decarbonisation and renewable energy opportunities. Natural capital: managing our green and blue infrastructure to reduce emissions and support resilience. Policy influence Influencing national and regional public and non-public policies through the CPP’s collective voice in a way that recognises Argyll & Bute's distinctive geography and population. Procurement and Supply Chain Collaboration Promoting opportunities for climate mitigation, adaptation and community wealth building through improving circular economies within Argyll & Bute. Risk/Economic Assessment Deepening our understanding of the risks and opportunities, including economic risks and opportunities, presented by climate change to Argyll and Bute as a whole and to specific communities and sectors. Resilience/Carbon Literacy Training Promoting carbon literacy and greater resilience, across all CPP sectors to empower individuals to bring about climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Skills Development Increasing opportunities for individuals to gain the skills required to deliver climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience in an inclusive and just way. Other/crosscutting Encourage individuals, communities and agencies to take multiple actions and to identify new risks and opportunities. With fuel poverty nearly 50% higher than the Scottish average, and higher again in more rural areas, and private water supplies ten times the national average, our housing is largely insufficient to cope with our current climate and even less with the greater weather extremes forecast. Areas for action closest to the CPP’s remit and ability to control or influence:Page 138
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The principles and approach guiding the Strategy are: An enabling strategy, rather than creating new duties or replacing existing ones, it identifies gaps and opportunities, especially those made possible by working together. Alignment with the CPP priorities of: Transport Infrastructure , Housing and Community Wellbeing, which in turn are aligned to requirements in our national climate programmes. Embracing diversity, to recognise significant variation among our communities, places and landscapes, and that we are being affected by climate change in multiple ways. Focussing on common challenges across the region, such as the length and vulnerability of transport links, and our low population density that can make it harder to secure funding. Adapting as we build our understanding of the risks and opportunities we face, taking into account local knowledge and also local variations and capacity to adapt. In addition to incremental steps to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and transitional steps to enhance our capacity to adapt, there is also a transformational component: as we improve our ability to cope with climate needs we also improve our current circumstances. An example of this sort of transformational change is the importance of developing our local economy through developing appropriate local skills, produce and markets and the housing, energy and other infrastructure to support them. This reduces our transport and waste emissions at the same time as reducing our dependence on vulnerable, extended transport links and enables us to add value locally and reduce economic leakage, at the same time as supporting transformational growth sectors such as energy and valuing our natural capital. Engaging communities through networks of community champions linked to Climate Hubs centred on the four Argyll & Bute administrative areas. Developing resilience by developing skills and capacity to adapt to ongoing change alongside longer term transformational capital projects. Ensuring a socially just transition to a climate ready future: as we prepare for the impacts of the changing climate we do so in ways that are fair and tackle inequality. For more information please contact Andy Macpherson Climate Change Project Manager Argyll Countryside Trust andy@act-now.org.uk act-now.org.uk/cpp Page 139
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Sniffer, Edinburgh Climate Change Institute, High School Yards, Infirmary Street, Edinburgh EH1 1LZ, Scotland, UK, T: 0131 651 4674 E: info@sniffer.org.uk W: www.sniffer.org.uk : @SnifferScotland Scottish Charity No SC022375, Company No SC149513. Registered in Edinburgh. Registered Office: Caledonian Exchange, 19a Canning Street, Edinburgh, EH3 8HE Argyll and Bute Climate Trends Analysis September 2024 Page 141
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1https://themetoffice.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/506ff7d53c884badb0d8fd36d6280a91 2https://www.dynamiccoast.com/ 3https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/15/- 4.9542/55.988/?theme=water_level&map_type=water_level_above_mhhw&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=tr ue&elevation_model=best_available&refresh=true&water_level=1.0&water_unit=m Introduction This report sets out the approach to, and key findings from, analysis of climate observations and trends from the Argyll and Bute region. The data used came from several sources. The main source of climate trends and projections data came from the 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) User Interface data download site. These data were supplemented with information from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer1. The analysis within this report was supported by using information from the Dynamic Coasts platform2 and the Climate Central websites Coastal Risk Screening Tool that provides maps of land below 1m above the current high tide line3. Given current emission pathways and the challenges in implementing the Paris agreement, the RCP8.5 scenario was used in this analysis, representing a high-emissions scenario. This approach is consistent with the emerging methodology of the 4th UK Climate Change. Projection data was analysed out to 2080, with sea level rise looked at to 2100. The analysis looked at Argyll and Bute at several spatial scales, including regionally (the river basin region), the local authority boundary, and sixteen key settlements across the area. Methodology The approach taken to the data analysis for the climate trends and projections from Argyll and Bute follows analysis undertaken by other Place-Based adaptation partnerships in Scotland such as Climate Ready Clyde and Climate Ready South East Scotland. The overarching aim is to understand the key observed climate trends in recent history in the area, and what the latest climate models project as being experience between 2023 and 2080. The approach was adapted to suit the Argyll and Bute region and the following section sets out the detailed methodology used and explains the reasoning behind the options selected for scenarios, scale, metrics and variables. Data variables Spatial scales Climate projections were looked at for three main spatial scales: • The Argyll river basin region • The Argyll and Bute Local Authority area • Settlements – sixteen key settlements across the region identified by the Climate Change subgroup of the Argyll and Bute Community Planning Partnership. Page 142
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The UKCP data interface allows you to generate maps, plots and download the raw data for various climate variables, RCP scenarios, geographical and temporal scales. However, not everything is available at all scales, and whilst it is possible to generate maps for the full Argyll and Bute region, the data can only be downloaded at either a “West Scotland” Administrative Boundary scale, or at the Argyll river basin scale. The River basin omits a small part of the region at the eastern side, but the data at this scale was more representative of Argyll and Bute than the whole of West Scotland which also includes all of Ayrshire, D&G, Greater Glasgow and Falkirk. Most data are available at a 2.2km scale, meaning that it is accessible for the settlements used to generate graphs of trends. However, the maps generated by the UKCP user interface use the regional level data and therefore do not show any more detail for the settlements than the regional maps. Therefore, maps for the settlements have not been created. In addition to this, the data is not available for individual local authorities, and the maps again show the same outputs as the regional maps, therefore trends and projections for the Argyll and Bute local authority boundary have been generated using the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer. Emissions scenarios The analysis used the RCP8.5 projections. This is a high emissions scenario and meets the recommendations of the CCRA UK Climate Change Risk Assessment to assess the risks for a 4°C warming. RCPs, or Representative Concentration Pathways, are scenarios for the future concentrations of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere (not emissions at that point in time) and cover a range of assumptions around future population, economic development and impacts of actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions towards international targets. Each pathway drives a different range of simulated global mean temperature increases over the 21st century and are used to model possible future climatic conditions. They range from a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) which models the future if global warming is limited to 1.6°C, to a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) which models the future climate if global warming reaches 4.3°C compared to the 1850-1900 baseline. The information from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer, however, uses Global Warming Levels (GWLs) rather than RCPs, with data provided for three future GWLs (1.5, 2, 4°C). Whilst not exactly comparable, GWL4°C is an approximation of a lower level RCP8.5 scenario, reaching a 3.5°C temperature increase by the 2080s. Therefore, information for GWL4°C has been used for the local authority level analysis. Climate variables Three key climate variables were looked at for all three spatial scales. They are: • Annual mean air temperature (°C) • Precipitation rate (mm/day) • Sea level rise (only applicable to the settlements with a coastline.) In addition to this, seasonal data was looked at for the whole region, but not individual settlements, due to the timescales involved in downloading and processing this data: Page 143
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• Summer mean air temperature • Winter mean air temperature • Summer precipitation rate • Winter precipitation rate Temporal scales All data were downloaded to 2080. Sea Level data were downloaded to 2100. Climate Change type Regional data is also available in either absolute values or anomaly values. Absolute values project the temperatures and precipitation rates that we are likely to see, whilst the anomaly values show the percentage change from a chosen baseline. Absolute values were used for the majority of the analysis, as the observed trends from 1960 could be combined with the projections with ease, and it was felt that the graphs produced from absolute values would be easier to understand for the audience of the adaptation strategy. However, anomaly values were used also used to calculate the projected change in temperature and precipitation rate in 2100 from 1961. Observational data To assist with analysing the projections in a context of experienced climate trends for the region, observed data for mean air temperature and precipitation rate from 1961 – 2022 were downloaded and incorporated into the projection data. Again, due to the timescales involved in downloading and processing the data, observation data was only included for the annual mean air temperature and precipitation rate analysis for the Argyll River basin region and the individual settlements. It was not looked at seasonally, though that data is available should it be of interest at a later date. Outputs Outputs are in the form of graphs, maps, and tables from the automatically generated reports for the local authorities from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer. Graphs showing the observed climate trends and projections against time have been produced for the regional data and individual settlements. These have been produced either by data manipulation in Excel, or automatically generated by the UKCP User Interface. Page 144
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Processing the data Data downloaded from the UKCP were processed in excel, with graphs of the climate trends and projections produced for analysis. Observational data was incorporated into these graphs. The Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer was accessed for the local authority specific data, which can be viewed and explored using a web-based dashboard and automatically generated reports downloaded with a summary of the information contained within. For areas not considered coastal by either of the data sources above, the Dynamic Coasts website was used to suggest likely sea level rise by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Page 145
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Key Findings The analysis of current climate trends (1960 – 2022) in Argyll and Bute show that the average annual air temperature has increased by 1.2°C during that time. Average summer temperature has increased by 1.5°C with average winter temperature increasing by 1.2°C. Average annual rainfall has increased by 400mm per year in that time, equating to an average extra 1.4mm per day across the year. Summer rainfall has increased by 50mm per year since 1960, with winter rainfall increasing by 300mm per year. Mean sea level around Argyll and Bute has risen by approximately 6.8mm per year since 1990. The key findings of the climate projection is that the Argyll and Bute region will experience an increase in average annual temperature of around 3.5°C and an increase in precipitation rate of around 10% from the 1981-2000 baseline by 2080. Sea level is expected to rise by between 0.4 and 0.7m by the 2080s. There is a small amount of variation in these figures across the region, with individual settlements providing a picture of those variations. Seasonal variation is also important to consider, as whilst the annual precipitation rate shows only small amounts of change, the seasonal analysis shows a significant decrease in summer precipitation with an increase in winter precipitation which almost balance each other out over the course of a year. This seasonal variability is likely to have more of an impact on the region as the annual changes given its geography, economics and infrastructure. Page 146
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Regional Findings Current observations Monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1990 - 2022 were first analysed for Argyll and Bute, to provide a context for the projected changes, particularly seasonally. This has been plotted on the graph below. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the data confirms that temperatures are warmer, and precipitation is less in the summer months than in the winter months. However, it also indicates that, generally, the driest months in Argyll and Bute are actually in Spring – April and May. The largest change in precipitation is seen between September and October, where on average, there is an increase of around 30mm. Average annual temperature and precipitation observations from 1960 – 2022 were also plotted, along with seasonal (summer and winter) observations. Observed annual data shows that the region has already experienced an average temperature increase of around 1.2°C and an increase in precipitation rate of just over 1mm/day since 1960. Observed seasonal data shows that the region has already experienced an average temperature increase in summer of around 1.3°C and an average temperature increase in winter of around 1.4°C. The region has also already experienced an average increase in winter precipitation rate of over 3mm/day and a slight increase in summer precipitation rate of just under 1mm/day since 1960. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Average Monthly Temperature (°C) Monthly Average Rainfall (mm/month) Monthly average observed data for Argyll and Bute river basin region Page 147
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6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed annual mean air temperature for the Argyll River Basin (°C) 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed total rainfall per year for the Argyll River Basin (mm) 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed annual precipitation rate for the Argyll River Basin (mm/day) Page 148
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Another important note in the observed data, is the variability between years, as discussed in the key findings summary above. Whilst both the observed data, and projections give an indication of overall trends, the variability of both temperature and rainfall experienced in any given year is very hard to predict and could have a bigger impact on the Argyll region than the annual trends. Projected air temperature and precipitation rates Anomaly values (change from baseline): The below graphs were generated using anomaly values directly in the UKCP User Interface. This data shows change from a baseline of 1961 for the Argyll river basin up to the end of the century. The bold line shows the central project of the 50th percentile i.e. as likely as not in the current scenario. The shaded areas show the other relative percentiles of probability – from 5, 10, 25th, 75th, 90th and 95th. The graphs generated by the UKCP User Interface automatically uses an end date of 2099, where as the data for absolute values (see section below) is only projected to 2080. Therefore, in order to avoid confusion and compare the data, the interpretation of graphs for the anomaly values below have looked at the 2080 date point. The first graph shows the annual average air temperature anomaly – the projected annual temperature increase, indicating a probable increase of around 2.8°C by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed summer mean air temperature for the Argyll River Basin (°C) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed winter mean air temperature for the Argyll River Basin (°C) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed summer precipitation rate for the Argyll River Basin (mm/day) 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Observed winter precipitation rate for the Argyll River Basin (mm/day) Page 149
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The second graph shows the annual average precipitation rate anomaly – the projected annual change in precipitation, indicating a probable increase of around 9%C by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. Page 150
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As discussed above, precipitation is usefully looked at across the seasons. Therefore, the following two graphs show the summer and winter average precipitation rate anomaly. These graphs indicate a likely summer decrease in precipitation rate of around 20% by 2080 and a winter increase in precipitation rate of 20% by 2080 under a high emissions scenario. These appear to cancel each other out, so it can be anticipated that the projected annual increase in precipitation rate will mean that spring and autumn will become wetter. Considering the current observed monthly precipitation shown in the graph in the Observed Data section, an increase in autumn precipitation could have significant impacts given the already high precipitation amounts from October onwards, and this would compound the impacts of the increase in winter precipitation as the ground will already be saturated. An increase in spring precipitation, may on the face of it have less of an impact, however, coming on the back of an increase in winter rainfall (not snowfall, as the temperature increase will mean precipitation falls mainly as rain) could have just as severe an impact on again, already saturated ground. Absolute values: Absolute values for both observation and projection data for average annual air temperature and annual precipitation rates were plotted on the same graphs to compare the current trends in climate since 1960 and what the climate models predicted would happen, along with the future projections. Since 1960, the Argyll and Bute region has experienced an increase in average annual temperatures of around 1.4°C, but with high levels of variability from year to year, as seen in the graph below and above. Projections indicate that this increase will continue steadily on reaching close to 11°C by 2080. The graphs also show that the projections fall slightly below the observed temperature from 1960 – 2022, and whilst some of this is down to the way the data is manipulated to get the averages from the 12 different climate models, there is the suggestion that the projections have previously underplayed the amount of warming currently being experienced. Page 151
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The graph above shows that the Argyll region has experienced a slight increase in annual precipitation rate since 1960, but perhaps more importantly that there is a significant degree of variability between years. The projections indicate that this increase will continue, though perhaps slowly, reaching a little over 7mm/day by 2080. As with the observed data, and anomaly data, precipitation rate projections were looked at seasonally (summer and winter). The below graphs show the observed and projected temperature and precipitation rates in summer (June, July and August) and winter (December, January and February) from 1960 – 2080. Seasonal temperature also shows an observed increasing trend across both summer and winter, which carries on into the projections to 2080. Observed data shows a higher variability in the winter temperatures which the projections do not, which is worth bearing in mind when considering the impacts of the climate trends. 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin average annual air temperatures from (°C) Temperature Observations Temperature Projections 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin annual average precipitation rate (mm/day) Observed Precipitation Rate Projected Precipitation Rate Page 152
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Seasonal precipitation rates, however, show a different pattern between summer and winter, with a steady decrease in summer and an increase in winter. The observational data again shows a high degree of variability from year to year in precipitation rates, making patterns of overall increases and decreases difficult to ascertain. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin average summer air temperatures (°C) Summer temperature observations Summer temperature projections 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin average winter air temperatures (°C) Winter temperature observations Winter temperature projections 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin summer average precipitation rate (mm/day) Observed summer precipitation rate Projected summer precipitation rate Page 153
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Sea Level Sea Level data is not available at the regional scale, it is projected at either specific tidal gauge locations or 2km coastal locations. Sea level change will be covered in the local authority section and where relevant in the settlement analysis below. However, looking at the RCP8.5 sea level predictions for around the region, there is the projection that sea levels will arise around the region on average between 0.30 and 0.71m by 2080, taking into account isostatic rebound (gradual rise in land level formerly covered by ice sheets during the Ice Ages), and potentially up to 1m by 2100 in some locations (not factoring in isostatic rebound). The available data only looks at sea level rise in isolation and does not include storm surges or storminess. It is not currently possible to model and project changes in storm surges or storminess with any accuracy, though they are predicted to increase due to the changes in weather patterns expected in a changing climate. The data presented here could be interpreted as a baseline which storm surges would be added to. The Climate Central website Coastal Risk Screening Tool referred to in the introduction provides maps of land below 1m above the current high tide line, which can be used to infer the location of the mean high water line in 2100, though there are caveat around topography of surrounding land and existing and future sea defences that will influence the exact level of sea rise in specific locations. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic Ocean that bring warm water from the tropics up to the west coastline of northern Europe, often called The Gulf Stream. It is a key reason why Scotland doesn’t see the same temperatures as the Baltic Nations and Russia in winter. The AMOC varies from year to year and though there hasn’t been enough monitoring to pick up long terms trends, climate models suggest that the AMOC will weaken as greenhouse gases increase, which could have a significant impact on the UK Climate as less warmer water is brought northwards. There is a large amount of uncertainty of both the affect of a weaker AMOC and at present it hasn’t been included in the UK Climate Projections due to a lack of robust data surrounding it. However, this is being worked on by the Met Office and future Projections will hopefully include it. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Argyll River Basin winter average precipitation rate (mm/day) Observed winter precipitation rate Projected winter precipitation rate Page 154
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Local Authority level Findings As mentioned in the methodology section, the High global Warming Levels used in the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer roughly coincide with the RCP8.5 to 2080. The report for Argyll and Bute suggests an annual average temperature increase of 2.4 - 3.2°C over the 1981-2000 baseline under the high emissions GWL, with the summer average at 4.7°C higher and the winter average 2.5°C higher. These projections also project a summer maximum temperature of 4.7°C above and a winter minimum temperature of 5.3°C above the 1981-2000 baseline. Summer precipitation rate is projected to be around 15% lower with winter precipitation predicted to be around 10% above the 1981-2000 baseline. In addition to temperature and precipitation rate, the Met Officer Local Authority Climate Explorer reports include other climate indicators. The report for Argyll and Bute predicts the following median annual values, for the 4°C GWL: Indicator Baseline (1981-2000) 4°C GWL Median Summer Days1 – daily maximum temperature >25°C 1 10 Hot Summer Days – daily maximum temperature >30°C 0 1 Extreme Summer Days – daily maximum temperature >35°C 0 0 Tropical Nights – daily minimum temperature >20°C 0 0 Frost Days – daily minimum temperature <0°C 52 7 Icing Days – daily maximum temperature <0°C 2 0 Growing Degree2 Days – daily mean temperature >5.5°C 1,249 2,005 Heating Degree Days – daily mean temperature <15.5°C 2,772 1,916 Cooling Degree Days – daily mean temperature <22°C 3 20 For areas with a coastline, the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer also provides projections on sea level. The report for Argyll and Bute projects a sea level rise of between 0.30 and 0.72m above the 1990 mean high tide line by the 2080s. 1 Summer days above the stated temperature thresholds can occur at any time of year. 2 Degree days are not a number of days, but the number of degrees the daily average temperature exceeds the threshold each day, added up over a year. Page 155
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Settlement Findings Argyll and Bute is a large area, with a diverse geography, topography and coastline. Sixteen key settlements were identified by the CPP to allow the analysis of climate trends across the region. There is a mixture of large and small urban centres, coastal, inland and island settlements, landscape types and topographies: Page 156
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Arrochar Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Arrochar is predicted to increase over the coming decades, reaching to approximately 10.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.8°C increase in annual average temperature for the Arrochar area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Arrochar is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, which compares to the UKCP anomaly projections suggesting a 5% increase in precipitation rate for the Arrochar area. However, as noted in the regional section above, the variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place. The observational data below shows a high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. Sea Level Rise 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average air temperature at 1.5m at Arrochar (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Arrochar (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 157
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Despite being at the head of a sea loch, Arrochar is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.9m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 158
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Campbeltown Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Campbeltown is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080 This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.8°C increase in annual average temperature for the Campbeltown area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Campbeltown is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 10% increase in precipitation rate for the southern Kintyre peninsula, the variation between that and the absolute values for Campbeltown could be due to the eastern location of the town. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average air temperature at 1.5m at Campbeltown (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Campbeltown (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 159
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Campbeltown is projected to rise by between 0.58m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Campbeltown (m) RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 160
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Dunoon Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Dunoon is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Dunoon area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Dunoon is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Dunoon area. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years, however, will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average air temperature at 1.5m at Dunoon (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average precipitation rate at Dunoon (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 161
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Dunoon is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 Sea Level Projections at Dunoon (m) RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 162
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Garelochhead Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Garelochhead is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Garelochhead is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Garelochhead area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Garelochhead (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Gareloch (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 163
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Sea Level Rise Garelochhead is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.9m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 164
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Helensburgh Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Helensburgh is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Helensburgh area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Helensburgh is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, which compares to the UKCP anomaly projections suggesting a 5% increase in precipitation rate for the Helensburgh area. The projections do suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Helensburgh (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Helensburgh (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 165
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Sea Level Rise Helensburgh is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.9m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 166
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Inveraray Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Inverary is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 10.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.7°C increase in annual average temperature for the Inverary area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Inverary is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest an 8% increase in precipitation rate for the Inverary area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Inverary (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Inverary (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 167
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Sea Level Rise Inverary is not considered as a coastal location by the UCKP marine projections and therefore, sea level change data is not available. According to the Dynamic Coasts High Emissions dashboard, however, a 0.91m sea level rise is anticipated at the 95% of the high emissions pathway RCP8.5: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/defe901982154099b6ceb19db8aa41a4 (Note: it is necessary to pan and zoom to the desired location after following the link, as below) Page 168
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Lochgilphead Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Lochgilphead is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Lochgilphead area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Lochgilphead is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though with a very slight increase. The UKCP anomaly data, however, suggests that there could be an increase of up to 10%. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Lochgilphead (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Lochgilphead (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 169
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Lochgilphead is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 Sea Level Projections at Lochgilhead RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 170
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Luing Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Luing is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.5°C increase in annual average temperature for the Luing area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Luing is predicated to increased by over 1mm/day compared to the baseline and the projections also suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections that show an anticipated increase in precipitation rate of 11%. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Avergae annual air temperature at 1.5m at Luing (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Luing (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 171
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Luing is projected to rise by between 0.58m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Luing RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 172
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Oban Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Oban is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.6°C increase in annual average temperature for the Oban area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Oban is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Oban area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average mean air temperature at 1.5m at Oban (°C) Observed mean temperature Projected mean temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Annual average precipitation rate at Oban (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 173
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Oban is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.92m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Oban (m) RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 174
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Port Ellen Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Port Ellen is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.8°C increase in annual average temperature for Islay. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Porth Ellen is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, and the projections suggest a slightly higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 10% increase in precipitation rate for Islay, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Port Ellen (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Port Ellen (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 175
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at the Port Ellen tidal gauge site is projected to rise by between 0.59m and 0.94m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections Port Ellen tidal guage site RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 176
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Rothesay Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Rothesay is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Isle of Bute. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Rothesay is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 8% increase in precipitation rate for the Isle of Bute, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Rothsay (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Rothsay (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 177
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Rothesay is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Rise projections at Rothesay RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 178
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Tarbert, Kintyre Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tarbert is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.9°C increase in annual average temperature for the north Kintyre peninsula. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tarbert is predicated to broadly stay steady compared to the baseline. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the northern Kintyre peninsula. As with Campbeltown, some of this discrepancy could be due to Tarbert’s location on the eastern side of the 25km grid square used for the anomaly projections. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tarbert (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 6 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tarbert (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 179
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tarbert is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Rise projections at Tarbert RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 180
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Tayvallich Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tayvallich is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 13°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 3°C increase in annual average temperature for the Tayvallich area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tayvallich is predicated to increase by around 1mm/day compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections that show an anticipated increase in precipitation rate of 10%. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tayvallich (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tayvallich (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 181
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tayvallich is projected to rise by between 0.60m and 0.99m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is well above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea level Projections at Tayvallich RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 182
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Tighnabruaich Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tighnabruich is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.9°C increase in annual average temperature for the Tighnabruich area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tighnabruich is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections suggest a 9% increase in precipitation rate for the Tighnabruich area, which could be accounted for in the higher projections than observations. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tighnabruich (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tighnabruich (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 183
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tighnabruich is projected to rise by between 0.55m and 0.91m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is slightly above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Tighnabruich RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 184
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Tiree Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tiree is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 12.5°C by 2080. The UKCP anomaly projections do not have a 25km grid square covering Tiree, so this data is not available for comparison. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tiree is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly projections do not have a 25km grid square covering Tiree. so this data is not available for comparison. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tiree (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 2 3 4 5 6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tiree (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 185
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tiree is projected to rise by between 0.60m and 0.99m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is well above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 Sea level Projections at Tiree RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 186
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Tobermory Air temperature Average annual air temperature at Tobermory is predicted to increase over the coming decades, in line with the projections, reaching to approximately 11.5°C by 2080. This is in line with the UKCP anomaly projections showing a 2.5°C increase in annual average temperature for the Tobermory area. Precipitation rate Average annual precipitation rate in Tobermory is predicated to slightly increase compared to the baseline, though the projections suggest a higher precipitation rate than the observed data currently shows as being experienced. The UKCP anomaly data suggests an increase in precipitation rate of 11% by 2080. The variability of precipitation rate over the year and between years will have a bigger impact on the climate risks experienced in a place, and the observational data below shows a relatively high level of variability in precipitation rate between years from 1960 – 2023. 7 8 9 10 11 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual air temperature at 1.5m at Tobermory (°C) Observed temperature Projected temperature 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Average annual precipitation rate at Tobermory (mm/day) Observed precipitation rate Projected precipitation rate Page 187
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Sea Level Rise Sea Level at Tobermory tidal gauge site is projected to rise by between 0.6m and 0.95m from the 2007 baseline by 2100, under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. This is above the estimated sea level rise for the Argyll and Bute Local Authority area from the Met Office Local Authority Climate Explorer report. 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 2067 2077 2087 2097 Sea Level Projections at Tobermory tidal guage site RCP 8.5 (50th) RCP 8.5 (95th) Page 188