Census 2022 - Summary
Renfrewshire Council · 4 December 2024
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___________________________________________________________________ To: Leadership Board On: 4 December 2024 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Chief Executive ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Census 2022 - Summary ___________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1 Scotland’s census data was captured in March 2022, with the official Census Day of Sunday 20 March. Over the past year, data has been published by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) in a rolling programme of thematic releases, with the final theme on health and wellbeing published in October 2024. 1.2 Appended to this report is a high-level summary of the data which will be of interest to Members at a Renfrewshire level. Further work has been undertaken to analyse this data and this will be made available at a ward level for Members. 1.3 The census data provides a significant update in our understanding of the demography of Renfrewshire, particularly in relation to changing population patterns and the diversity of our communities. For example, local intelligence has highlighted that some of Renfrewshire’s communities are increasingly diverse, and this census data has helped to enhance our understanding of this and will help to inform both service level and strategic programmes of work such as Fairer Renfrewshire. ___________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1 It is recommended that Members: • note the update on the census results for Renfrewshire and the planned briefings at a ward level which will be made available to Elected Members. ___________________________________________________________________
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3. Background 3.1 The UK census takes place every ten years, the previous census was in 2011. In Scotland, due to the Covid-19 Pandemic, the Census Day was moved from 2021 to 2022. 3.2 High level information about the census, such as Scotland’s population, was published in 2023, but throughout 2024, local information across the key themes within the census has been released as part of a rolling programme. This has allowed officers to consider the data, present it in easy-to-read charts, and provide some key messages. Charts covering the main areas of interest are appended to this report. 3.3 Census data is released at a number of geographies. Throughout this report and the appendix, the geographies referred to are intermediate zones - these are small area geographies which are used in the production of official statistics in Scotland. This allows for easier comparisons across data sets at a local level. 3.4 The census response rate in Renfrewshire was 87.6%, which is slightly lower than the national response rate of 89.8%. There is a dedicated website, www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk, where detailed information is available about the census methodology, including information about the statistical quality assurances undertaken and the modelling used to produce total population estimates from the census responses. 4. Population change 4.1 Renfrewshire’s population has increased significantly since the 2011 census, rising from 174,908 to 183,874. This represents a 5.1% increase on 2011, which is well above the national increase of 2.7%. It is worth noting that the national population growth has slowed down, at 2.7% between 2011 and 2022, compared to the 4.6% growth between 2001 and 2011. 4.2 For Renfrewshire, this increase makes us the 9th largest local authority area by population. Although our population has increased, the percentage split between male and female has remained the same – 49% male and 51% female, which is also reflective of the national picture. 5. Demography and households 5.1 Again, in line with the national picture, Renfrewshire has an increasingly ageing population, with a declining younger population. The increase can be seen from the age of 50 and above, year on year, most notably between ages 55 to 59. In terms of declining younger population - ages 0 through to 24 have shown a decreased population in 2022 compared to 2011, except for age 10 to 14 which has remained fairly static. The most significant decrease can be seen in age 0 to 4. 5.2 The potential impact of the ageing population can be seen across other data within the census, as explored below, including the decreasing population in
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some areas, the increased numbers of households, including single-person households, and also the above average percentage of Renfrewshire’s population who are retired. 5.3 Renfrewshire’s long-term increased population trend is not as a result of an increased birth rate. This is known as natural change, with the number of births minus the number of deaths. For Renfrewshire this rate is negative, i.e. the number of deaths is higher than the number of births. Instead, our long- term increased population is driven by net inward migration – this means people moving into Renfrewshire from other parts of Scotland. 5.4 Within Renfrewshire there are varied movements across communities and these can be seen in more detail within the appendix. The top five areas of increased population in Renfrewshire are Renfrewshire Rural North (which includes the Dargavel development), Renfrew North (which includes the Renfrew Riverside development), Paisley North, Paisley Central and Paisley East. The top five areas of decreased population in Renfrewshire are Erskine Central, Paisley Gallowhill and Hillington, Erskine East and Inchinnan, Renfrew East, and Johnstone South West. 5.5 Some of these patterns may be driven by the ageing population noted above, with people choosing to stay in their communities into their old age after their families have grown up and moved into other homes. We can also assume from considering these areas geographically that a key driver of increased population is the location of new housing developments. This can present at an extremely localised geographical level – for example, Houston North intermediate zone shows an increased population whereas Houston South shows a decreased population. 5.6 The data also shows significant spikes in net migration into Renfrewshire, particularly from 2012/13 onwards and again, these are likely to align with housing availability resulting from new developments. 5.7 Alongside the increased population in Renfrewshire, there is an increasing number of households, year on year. This trend is accompanied by a decrease in the average household size – this was 2.27 in 2001 and is now 2.10. Renfrewshire has a higher proportion of one person households compared to the national average – in Renfrewshire 39% of households are single people compared with 37% at a Scottish level. Again, an ageing population may be reflected in this higher proportion of single person households. 5.8 In terms of housing tenure, Renfrewshire has a higher than the national average percentage of homeowners – with 66.7% in Renfrewshire compared with 63.2%. According to the Office of National Statistics, the average house price in Renfrewshire in August 2024 was £166,000, compared with £200,000 average price at a Scottish level. This reflects historical data showing Renfrewshire consistently having lower than average house prices.
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5.9 In terms of the religious background and sexuality of Renfrewshire’s citizens, the data closely mirrors the national data trends in these areas – with decreasing religious beliefs and increased diversity of sexuality. There are no particular patterns or insights to highlight which present as unique to Renfrewshire. 6. Ethnic group and national identity 6.1 As noted above, the data on ethnic background and national identity has been helpful to update our understanding of Renfrewshire’s communities and the data shows a changing picture, and also a particularly localised picture. 6.2 There has been a decrease in the number of people identifying as ‘White: White Scottish’ since 2011 in Renfrewshire. The biggest increase is seen in people identifying as ‘White: Other White British’ and also as ‘Asian, Asian Scottish or Asian British’. There is also an increase in ‘White: White Polish’ and ‘Other White’, and increases can also be seen in the ‘African’, ‘Caribbean or Black’ and ‘Mixed or Multiple ethnicity’ groups. 6.3 The data for Renfrewshire’s communities indicates a varied picture with some intermediate zones showing very little change in the percentage of people identifying as white, such as in Kilbarchan, Bishopton and Erskine West. Equally, areas such as Paisley Central, Paisley North West and Renfrew North show the biggest changes in ethnic diversity. 6.4 Further data is available at an intermediate zone level which shows the proportions of different ethnic backgrounds within these communities. For example, within Paisley Central and Paisley North West there are significant communities of people from both African and Asian backgrounds, whereas in Renfrew North the key driver of the diversity is from people with an Asian background. 6.5 For an organisation like Renfrewshire Council there is an interest in understanding what languages are spoken within our communities to ensure our services and communications can reflect this. There was a question in the census about the main language spoken at home, however given the wide range of languages, respondents were required to write in the answer rather than selecting from a choice of languages. Further data on languages spoken at a local level has not been released. 6.6 At a national level, the census showed that 98.6% of people in Scotland aged 3 and over spoke English (and 92.6% of people aged 3 and over only spoke English at home). The most commonly spoken languages at home other than English and Scots were Polish, Urdu, Punjabi languages, Chinese languages and French. 7. Economic activity and travel to work 7.1 Renfrewshire has a slightly higher percentage of the population who are economically active at 58.2% compared to 56.89% for Scotland. Renfrewshire also has a slightly higher rate of economically active full-time students at 4.2%
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compared to 3.97% for Scotland. This position is also reflected in other population data noted in section 9 below. 7.2 Within the section of Renfrewshire’s population who are economically inactive, a slightly different picture to the rest of Scotland can be seen. Firstly, Renfrewshire has a higher proportion of people who are retired, at 62.13% compared to 59.57% for Scotland. This also reflects the data describing Renfrewshire’s ageing population. In addition, Renfrewshire also has a higher percentage of our economically inactive population who are long term sick or disabled at 14.67% compared to 13.27% for Scotland. This type of data helps to support our understanding of our communities and service users and also to plan for future service provision. It also links to the recently released data on health and wellbeing which is summarised in section 8 below. 7.3 The census also contains data about people’s travelling to work patterns. This shows that Renfrewshire has a slightly lower rate of people mainly working from home at 30.77% compared to 31.60% for Scotland. This is a significant change from the 2011 census, where Renfrewshire had 8.43% of people reporting as working mainly from home. Clearly, this has been impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic and the resultant shift in ways of working and hybrid opportunities within organisations. 7.4 Renfrewshire has slightly different patterns of commuting to the Scottish average, but this will likely be driven by Renfrewshire’s proximity to the city of Glasgow. In particular the percentage of journeys between 5km and 10km and 10km to 20km likely reflects the journey distances from across Renfrewshire’s settlements to central Glasgow. 8. Health and wellbeing 8.1 The most recently published census data relates to health and wellbeing. This data shows that 77.8% of Renfrewshire’s population self-report their general health as being good or very good. At the other end of the scale 7.6% of our residents self-report general health that is bad or very bad. This compares with 6.9% for Scotland. 8.2 Within our population around 40,000 people reported that they are living with a long-term illness, disease or condition. 21,000 people reported a mental health condition. 19,000 people have a physical disability and 13,000 are deaf or partially hearing impaired. Around 5,000 people are blind or have partially impaired vision and around 1,000 have full or part loss of their voice or difficulty speaking. This pattern mirrors the national picture. 8.3 More localised health and wellbeing data has been made available and analysis has highlighted the intermediate zones within Renfrewshire where people self-report bad or very bad general health above the Renfrewshire average of 7.6%. The highest levels of self-reported poor health are Johnstone North West, Linwood South, Paisley Gallowhill and Hillington, Paisley Ferguslie and Paisley South East.
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8.4 Census data also measures the percentage of Renfrewshire’s population, aged 3 and over who provide unpaid care. This shows that around 12,800 people in Renfrewshire provide between 1 and 19 hours of unpaid care a week, 2,300 between 20 and 34 hours a week and the same amount between 35 and 49 hours. Around 5,300 residents provide 50 or more hours of unpaid care. 8.5 The data shows Renfrewshire to be around average within the Glasgow City Region, with a total of 12.7% of our overall population aged 3 and over providing unpaid care. This is above the national rate of 11.9% for Scotland. 8.6 The Census data can now be used in conjunction with the very detailed health and wellbeing survey data that is available through surveys undertaken across NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, which community planning partners are currently considering their response to. 9. Mid-year population estimates 9.1 Since the publication of the census data, National Records of Scotland have published their usual mid-year estimates. This information was released in September 2024 and reflects the 2023 mid-year position. This shows Renfrewshire’s population has increased again, above the national rate of growth, and takes the population to 186,540. Renfrewshire remains the 9th largest local authority area by population. 9.2 Alongside this headline figure, further data shows that the short-term driver of Renfrewshire’s population growth is again migration, but the largest contributor is international net migration, that is people moving to Renfrewshire from outside of the UK. Inward migration from both Scotland and the rest of the UK also had a positive impact on Renfrewshire’s population, but as noted above, the natural change (births minus deaths) remains negative. 9.3 Linked to the economic activity outlined in section 7, the recent update shows that Renfrewshire’s working age population makes up 65.3% of our overall population, which places us at the higher end of the local authority areas, behind only the city authorities and North Lanarkshire in the overall Scottish position. 10. Summary and next steps 10.1 The data in the census helps to update our understanding of the communities we serve. It paints a positive picture of a growing population for Renfrewshire, with an above average proportion of working age people. It also shows that Renfrewshire has an ageing population, with a decreasing younger population, which, if the trajectory continues, may then impact the working age percentage in future years. The health findings combined with the ageing population also has implications for our communities and how we deliver services in the future.
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10.2 Population patterns vary across communities, with some areas showing significant expansion, most often linked to new housing development, and other areas showing static or declining populations. It is also clear that without the impact of migration, both inward and international, Renfrewshire’s population would look quite different as our natural population change continues to negatively impact our population. 10.3 Diversity also varies across communities, both in terms of the numbers of people who identify as white and the patterns of settlement of people from different ethnic backgrounds. This tells us is that broad brushstroke headlines don’t apply equally across Renfrewshire and understanding local context is important. 10.4 Work will continue to understand the data within the census, what this means for Renfrewshire, the comparisons to the national and regional picture and to share this across services and other stakeholders. As noted in section 1, work has also been undertaken to segment census data at a ward level and this will be provided to Members via the provision of a data visualisation tool, with the opportunity for ward profile presentations if helpful. 10.5 The Census data will also be considered at both a service and strategic level, with work being undertaken to discuss this data with Council officers and with wider community planning partners. __________________________________________________________________ Implications of the Report 1. Financial – none. 2. HR & Organisational Development – none. 3. Community/Council Planning – both the Council and Community Plan were developed following a Strategic Impact Assessment which examined local demographic data from a range of sources. The data within the census, as outlined in the report, will help to inform future iterations and also the delivery of these Plans in ways that best respond to local needs. 4. Legal - none 5. Property/Assets – none 6. Information Technology - none 7. Equality and Human Rights – there are no negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights arising from the recommendations contained in the report, as the report summarises data and is for noting only. However, the data within the census will be useful to support the Council to better understand the demography of our communities and to support the development of impact assessments based on up-to-date local data.
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8. Health and Safety - none 9. Procurement – none 10. Risk – none 11. Privacy Impact – none 12. Climate Risk – none 13. Children’s Rights – none 14. COSLA Policy Position – none Author, covering report: Pauline Moss, Strategy, Policy and Insight Manager Author, appendix: Danny McAllion, Data Analytics and Research Manager
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Renfrewshire in 2024 Census update -appendix
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Population change
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Population in Renfrewshire High level population estimate released in September 2023: 5.1% increase on 2011 (compared to national increase of 2.7%). National increase smaller than the 4.6% growth between 2001 and 2011.
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Population in Renfrewshire Renfrewshire now the 9th largest LA by population:
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Renfrewshire population –male/female split Male/Female split remains the same (49%/51%)
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Demography and households
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Demography Shift towards older age groups – younger population declining:
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Demography and migration Population increase on 2011 by Area:
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Demography and migration Population decline on 2011 by Area:
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Demography and migration
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Demography and migration Steady increase in the numbers of households in Renfrewshire – accompanied by a decrease in average household size. 2.27 in 2001 now 2.10
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Household size
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Housing tenure
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Ethnic group and national identity
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Ethnic group, national identity, language and religion
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Ethnic group, national identity, language and religion
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Ethnic group, national identity, language and religion
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Economic activity and travel to work
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Economic activity – 16+
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Economic inactivity breakdown – 16+
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Travel to work
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Health and wellbeing update
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Mid year population estimates
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level More recent population projection • The 2023 mid-year estimate for population in Renfrewshire was released this month by the National Records of Scotland. • Our population has increased again and now stands at 186,540, an increase of 2,170 (1.2%) on 2022 and above the national rate of growth.
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level More recent population projections • In terms of population composition, Renfrewshire’s working age population as a % of the total is at the higher end on the LA areas, outwith the city authorities.
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level More recent population projections • Details of migration patterns over the last year have also been released. Our rate of natural change (births minus deaths) remains negative but international net migration has overtaken net migration within Scotland as the main driver of population change.
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Title can go here • Click to edit Master text styles • Second level • Third level • Fourth level • Fifth level Renfrewshire in 2024 Census update – appendix For more information please contact: Danny.mcallion@renfrewshire.gov.uk Pauline.moss@renfrewshire.gov.uk