Revenue and Capital Budget Monitoring Overview Report UPDATED
Renfrewshire Council · 3 April 2025
Back to Finance, Resources and Customer Services Policy Board — 3 April 2025 and its agenda
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___________________________________________________________________ To: Finance, Resources and Customer Services Policy Board On: 3 April 2025 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Finance and Resources ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Revenue and Capital Budget Monitoring – Council Overview as at 7 January 2025 ___________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary of Financial Position 1.1 At the close of reporting Period 10 on 7 January 2025, the projected revenue outturn position at 31 March 2025 for Council services is an overspend position of £0.467m (0.1%) against the revised budget for the year. Adult Services (HSCP) is projecting an overspend of £3.666m (3.4%), resulting in a combined projected overspend of £4.133m (0.8%). 1.2 The projected capital outturn at 31 March 2025 all services is a break even position. 1.3 This is split between General Fund Services and the Housing Revenue Account (HRA) in the table below, with further analysis provided in the Appendices. Table 1 Revised Annual Budget £000 Projected Outturn £000 Budget Variance (Adv)/Fav £000 Budget Variance % Revenue General Fund Services (Council) 429,285 429,752 (0.467) (0.1%) Adult Services (HSCP) 106,810 110,476 (3,666) (3.4%) Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 0 0 0 0.0% Total 536,095 540,228 (4,133) 0.8% Capital General Fund Services 97,417 97,417 0 0.0% Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 31,380 31,380 0 0.0%
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2. Recommendations 2.1 Members are requested to: a) Note the projected Revenue outturn overspend position of £4.133m; b) Note the projected Capital outturn break even position; and c) Note the prudential indicators detailed in section 7 of the report. _________________________________________________________ 3. Revenue Budget Projection – overspend of £4.133m by 31 March 2025 3.1 The projected overspend of £4.133m across all services includes £3.666m for Adult Services (HSCP), leaving a forecast overspend of £0.467m for Council services. 3.2 The tables in Appendix 1 present the projected year-end position for all services, by both subjective analysis (what the budget is spent on) and objective analysis (which division is spending the budget). Significant variances affecting the projected position are analysed further below. 3.3 The projected outturn is based on information currently available, and assumptions made by service budget holders. The final outturn position for the financial year will be reported to Council in June. 4. Significant Variances 4.1 Education & Children’s Services £1.059m overspend This projected forecast includes overspends in Supplies & Services (£0.593m) mainly due to payments to care leavers and increased demand for Care at Home services for children with additional support needs. Overspends in Transfer Payments (£0.761m) relates mainly to Children & Families, in particular Direct Payments and Section 22 payments. The projected overspend in Third Party payments (£0.252m) relates to Fostering and Adoption fees, following the implementation of the national rate for fostering allowances, and services related to Children with Disability, related to projected placement costs. These overspends are partly offset by Employee Costs, currently projecting an underspend of £0.874m, owing to staff turnover and vacancies.
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4.2 Infrastructure, Land & Environment £1.210m overspend The projected overspend predominantly sits within Waste Services (£1.054m), where trade waste income is significantly under-recovered owing to a reduction in demand. There are further cost pressures related to increased software and work by contractor costs within Infrastructure and Assets, and Fleet Services are projecting an overspend that is mainly reflective of the inflationary impact on replacement parts for vehicles and specialist contractors. 4.3 Finance, Resources & Customer Services £1.610m underspend The anticipated underspend is mainly driven by an expected £3.000m increase in investment interest income, owing to the level of interest rates prevailing. This is offset by a forecast overspend in Public Building Repairs of £1.300m due to the continued inflationary and cost pressures that have been experienced by the service over the last few years. The position continues to be closely monitored, and mitigating actions are being taken by management where appropriate. 4.4 Adult Services £3.666m overspend The overspend is mainly due to external care at home packages for both Older People and those with Physical or Sensory Difficulties. This results from increased acuity of patients with more complex needs discharged from hospital, meaning more intensive Care at Home packages are required to support people to remain in their own homes. The overspend is further impacted by inflationary increases as a result of the adult supported living framework renewal in November 2024. Since the last report the overspend has reduced by £0.977m mainly due to vacancy management controls now in place, and further recovery of payments relating to changes in package costs. This forecast position now includes costs associated with the care at home staff regrade. 5. Capital Budget Projection – Housing Services Programme 5.1 The HRA Capital Investment Programme 2024/25 to 2028/29 was approved by the Council on 29 February 2024. For 2024/25, the revised programme totals £31.380m, an increase of £0.518m since Period 8, as a result of acceleration from 2025/26 into 2024/25 in relation to the timing of investment assessments. 5.2 Capital expenditure to 7 January 2025 amounted to £20m, representing 64% of available resources, compared to 72% for the same period in 2023/24.
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5.3 47% of expected capital income has been received to date, compared to 79% for the equivalent period in 2023/24. This difference relates to grant received in 2023/24 for energy efficiency improvements which came in at the start of the year; this has not been awarded for 2024/25. The remainder of expected capital income is expected to come in towards the end of the financial year. 5.4 The projected outturn position, after budget changes, is for the Housing Services Programme to break even (see Appendix 2). However, inflationary impacts of delays to work and related cost estimates are still ongoing and therefore this forecast will be kept under review. 6. Capital Monitoring: Non-Housing Services Programme 6.1 The General Services Capital Investment Programme 2024/25 to 2028/29 was approved by Council on 29 February 2024. For 2024/25, the current revised programme totals £97.417m, a decrease of £6.158m since Period 8, resulting mainly from the net effect of: projects reprofiled from 2024/25 into 2025/26 of £6.158m, mainly as a result of updated cashflow profiles for Lifecycle Capital Maintenance Fund and GAIA Regeneration. 6.2 Capital expenditure to 7 January 2025 totals £64m, representing 66% of the available resources, compared to 72% for the equivalent period in 2023/24. 6.3 Capital income totalling £18m has been received to 7 January 2025. This represents 60% of the total anticipated income, compared to 56% for the equivalent period in 2023/24. 6.4 The projected outturn position after these budget changes is to break even (see Appendix 2). However, the full impact of inflation on capital costs on each project is not yet determined, with increased costs through inflation and compliance expected to increase the risk of overspends across the capital programme. 7. Capital Overview: Prudential Indicators 7.1 The Council is required to set prudential indicators to ensure that its capital investment plans are affordable, proportionate, prudent and sustainable. The current prudential indicators were approved by Council on 12 December 2024. 7.2 The CIPFA Prudential Code 2021 recommends that from 2024/25 a regular update is provided to members noting the current forecasts for prudential indicators compared to those approved at the start of the financial year. These are outlined in 7.4 to 7.8 below. 7.3 The Council approved new Prudential Indicators for 2025/26 as part of the non-housing capital investment programme report agreed by Council on 27 February.
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7.4 Capital Expenditure: The limit on capital expenditure that the Council has set for 2024/25 is shown in the table below. The limit is based on the resources available to fund the capital programmes, split between Housing and Non- Housing Services, but excludes the Public Sector Housing Grant, as this is not considered to be capital spend for the Council. The forecast expenditure is lower owing to the changes outlined at 6.1 above. Approved Plan £m Forecast Expenditure £m Non-Housing 104 97 Housing 31 31 Total 135 128 7.5 Capital Finance Requirement (CFR): The CFR originally planned by the Council for 2024/25 is shown in the table below and is split between Housing and Non-Housing Services. The projected outturn at 31 March 2025 is also shown. Any significant increase in the capital expenditure without planned funding at the point of spend will result in an increase to the CFR. Planned CFR to 31 March 2025 £m Projected CFR to 31 March 2025 £m Non-Housing 462 452 Housing 130 130 Total 592 582 7.6 Operational Boundary: This is the focus of day-to-day treasury management activity within the Council and is an estimate of the most likely, but not worst case, scenario in terms of cashflow. Risk analysis and risk management strategies are taken into account, as are plans for capital expenditure, estimates of the CFR and estimates of cashflow requirements for all purposes. It is possible that this boundary could be breached occasionally, and this should not be regarded as significant. However, a sustained or regular trend of such would be significant and require investigation and action. Planned Operational Boundary to 31 March 2025 £m Projected Operational Boundary to 31 March 2025 £m Borrowing 498 488 Other Long-Term Liabilities 94 94 Total 592 582
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7.7 Authorised Limit: This is based on the same assumptions as the Operational Boundary, with additional headroom to ensure sufficient capacity to allow for both planned and exceptional cashflow requirements, without breaching the limit. Planned Authorised Limit to 31 March 2025 £m Projected Authorised Limit to 31 March 2025 £m Borrowing 523 512 Other Long-Term Liabilities 94 94 Total 617 606 7.8 Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue: A key measure of affordability is the incremental impact of investment decisions on Council Tax or housing rents. Estimates of the ratio of financing costs to net revenue stream provide an indication of how much of the Council’s revenue budget is committed to the repayment of debt. Approved Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue 2024/25 % Projected Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue 2024/25 % Non-Housing 3.47 3.22 Housing 28.59 28.49 Financing costs include the interest payable with respect to forecast borrowing levels, interest payable on finance leases, interest and investment income, loans fund and finance lease principal repayments and gains/losses on the repurchase or early settlement of borrowing. There is a decrease in the projected ratios due to the updated capital spend profile and interest rate outlook. Revenue streams relate either to the amounts received in terms of government grant and local taxpayers for Non-Housing, or to the amounts received from tenants in respect of housing rents for Housing. 8. Private Sector Housing Grant Programme 8.1. The overall budget provision for this programme is included within the revenue budget. However, in order to monitor the performance of the individual programmes, it is included within capital budget monitoring procedures. 8.2. The Council approved expenditure up to £1.186m for 2024/25. There have been no changes since the previous Policy Board Report.
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8.3. The programme is expected to fully spend by 31 March 2025 and will be contained within the overall resources. Implications of the Report 1. Financial The projected budget outturn position for General Fund Services Revenue budget is an overspend of £4.133m (0.8%) and break-even for the HRA Revenue budget. Income and expenditure will continue to be monitored closely for the rest of the financial year and, where necessary, steps will be taken to mitigate overspends. The projected outturn position for General Fund Services and HRA Capital budgets is a break-even position. The Capital programme will continue to be monitored closely for the rest of the financial year. Any changes to current projections in either Revenue or Capital budgets will be detailed in future reports to this board. 2. HR & Organisational Development While staffing budgets form a significant proportion of the Council’s revenue budgets, there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 3. Community/Council Planning Community Plan Our Renfrewshire is thriving The Council’s revenue and capital spend ensures that its facilities are fit for purpose and safe for the community, to maximise accessibility. Our Renfrewshire is well Our Renfrewshire is fair Our Renfrewshire is safe Council Plan Reshaping our place, our economy and our future The Council’s revenue and capital spend ensures that its facilities are fit for purpose and safe for the community, to maximise accessibility. Building strong, safe and resilient communities Tackling inequality, ensuring opportunities for all Creating a sustainable Renfrewshire for all to enjoy Ongoing revenue and capital budget monitoring is a tool to enable good financial management so that the Council has resources now and in the future for continued service delivery. Working together to improve outcomes
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4. Legal There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 5. Property/Assets The capital expenditure noted in this report will result in lifecycle maintenance improvements to existing properties and replacement of ICT, infrastructure, and plant and equipment. 6. Information Technology There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 7. Equality & Human Rights While new areas of spend may impact on particular groups, any such impact would be assessed prior to the spend being incurred, therefore there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 8. Health & Safety There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 9. Procurement While Procurement is an important consideration prior to the Council incurring any revenue or capital spend, there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 10. Risk The potential financial risk that the Council will overspend its approved revenue budgets for the year is managed at a Council-wide level by the Chief Executive and Directors. 11. Privacy Impact There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 12. Children’s Rights There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report.
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13. Climate Change The Council aims to reduce its carbon and other emissions to net zero by 2030, however there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 14. Cosla Policy Position - N/a ___________________________________________________________________ List of Background Papers Revenue Budget and Council Tax 2024/25, Council 29 February 2024 The Capital Investment Programme 2024/25 to 2028/29, Council 29 February 2024 ___________________________________________________________________ Author: Alison Burns, Corporate Finance Manager Geoff Borland, Finance Manager (Capital)
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Appendix 1 RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL REVENUE BUDGET MONITORING STATEMENT 2024/25 1 April 2024 to 7 January 2025 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES - OVERVIEW Policy Board - Objective Summary Annual Budget at Period 8 Budget Adjustments Revised Annual Budget at Period 10 Projected Outturn Budget Variance (Adverse) / Favourable Previous Projected Outturn Variance Movement (Adverse) / Favourable £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 % £000 £000 Communities and Housing Services 14,878 413 15,291 15,291 0 0.0% 0 0 Education and Children's Services 257,585 7,218 264,803 265,862 (1,059) (0.4%) (901) (158) Infrastructure, Land and Environment 32,121 1,248 33,369 34,579 (1,210) (3.6%) (1,160) (50) Finance, Resources and Customer Services 95,875 (3,578) 92,297 90,687 1,610 1.7% 2,053 (443) Adult Services 106,460 350 106,810 110,476 (3,666) (3.4%) (4,643) 977 Planning 584 78 662 615 47 7.1% 0 47 Economy and Regeneration 2,306 70 2,376 2,279 97 4.1% 92 5 Chief Executive's Service 20,127 360 20,487 20,439 48 0.2% 35 13 GENERAL SERVICES NET EXPENDITURE 529,936 6,159 536,095 540,228 (4,133) (0.8%) (4,524) 391 Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 NET EXPENDITURE 529,936 6,159 536,095 540,228 (4,133) (0.8%) (4,524) 391
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Appendix 1 RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL REVENUE BUDGET MONITORING STATEMENT 2024/25 1 April 2024 to 7 January 2025 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES - OVERVIEW Subjective Summary Annual Budget at Period 8 Budget Adjustments Revised Annual Budget at Period 10 Total Projected Outturn Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable Previous Projected Outturn Variance Movement £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 % £000 £000 Employees 363,685 7,759 371,443 367,293 4,151 1.1% 4,391 (241) Premises Related 52,840 421 53,261 55,951 (2,690) (5.1%) (1,699) (991) Transport Related 17,502 (154) 17,348 18,402 (1,054) (6.1%) (960) (94) Supplies and Services 97,014 1,225 98,239 101,190 (2,951) (3.0%) (2,921) (29) Third Party Payments 93,503 589 94,092 99,166 (5,074) (5.4%) (6,767) 1,694 Transfer Payments 100,027 577 100,603 101,766 (1,163) (1.2%) (1,055) (107) Support Services 6,247 92 6,339 6,291 48 0.8% (60) 109 Depreciation and Impairment Losses 27,586 0 27,586 27,598 (12) 0.0% (12) 0 GROSS EXPENDITURE 758,404 10,508 768,912 777,656 (8,744) (1.1%) (9,084) 340 Income (228,468) (4,350) (232,817) (237,428) 4,611 2.0% 4,560 52 NET EXPENDITURE 529,936 6,159 536,095 540,228 (4,133) (0.8%) (4,524) 391
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Appendix 2 Prior Years Approved Budget Revised Projected Expenditure Budget Adjustments Budget Outturn Total Approved Projected to 31/03/2024* 2024-25 since previous 2024-25 2024-25 Budget Outurn Board report to 31-Mar-29 to 31-Mar-29 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 EDUCATION & CHILDREN'S SERVICES Education & Children's Services 20,894 30,286 0 30,286 30,286 0 0% 198,480 198,480 0 0% TOTAL 20,894 30,286 0 30,286 30,286 0 0% 198,480 198,480 0 0% COMMUNITIES, HOUSING & PLANNING Housing (HRA) 53,408 30,862 518 31,380 31,380 0 0% 219,144 219,144 0 0% Housing (PSHG) 0 1,186 0 1,186 1,186 0 0% 2,926 2,926 0 0% TOTAL 53,408 32,048 518 32,566 32,566 0 0% 222,070 222,070 0 0% INFRASTRUCTURE, LAND & ENVIRONMENT Environment & Infrastructure 4,137 18,684 (253) 18,431 18,431 0 0% 54,578 54,578 0 0% TOTAL 4,137 18,684 (253) 18,431 18,431 0 0% 54,578 54,578 0 0% ECONOMY & REGENERATION Economy and Development 80,951 17,302 (420) 16,882 16,882 0 0% 105,843 105,843 0 0% TOTAL 80,951 17,302 (420) 16,882 16,882 0 0% 105,843 105,843 0 0% FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES Corporate Projects 3,993 9,269 (2,094) 7,175 7,175 0 0% 32,997 32,997 0 0% TOTAL 3,993 9,269 (2,094) 7,175 7,175 0 0% 32,997 32,997 0 0% LEADERSHIP Leisure Services 24,924 1,412 0 1,412 1,412 0 0% 28,005 28,005 0 0% Chief Executives 158,319 26,622 (3,391) 23,231 23,231 0 0% 360,395 360,395 0 0% TOTAL 183,243 28,034 (3,391) 24,643 24,643 0 0% 388,400 388,400 0 0% TOTAL ALL BOARDS 346,626 135,623 (5,640) 129,983 129,983 0 0.0% 1,002,368 1,002,368 0 0% MADE UP OF: Non-Housing Programme 293,218 103,575 (6,158) 97,417 97,417 0 0% 780,298 780,298 0 0% Housing Programme (HRA) 53,408 30,862 518 31,380 31,380 0 0% 219,144 219,144 0 0% Housing Programme (PSHG) 0 1,186 0 1,186 1,186 0 0% 2,926 2,926 0 0% PROGRAMME TOTAL 346,626 135,623 (5,640) 129,983 129,983 0 0.0% 1,002,368 1,002,368 0 0% Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL CAPITAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY - NON-HOUSING SERVICES 1st April to 7th January 2025 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES Current Year 2024-25 Full Programme - All years
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Appendix 2 2024/25 Housing Non Housing PSHG Total Services Services Programme A. RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO FUND CAPITAL PROGRAMME £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 1. Prudential Borrowing 23,075 61,258 84,333 2a General Capital Grant 13,627 600 14,227 2b. Specific Capital Grant 2,578 1,128 3,706 3. Usable Capital Receipts 940 16,075 17,015 4. Contribution From Current Revenue (CFCR) 4,787 5,329 586 10,702 5 Total Resource Availability 31,380 97,417 1,186 129,983 B. CAPITAL PROGRAMME 6. Resources Available 31,380 97,417 1,186 129,983 7. Current Programme 31,380 100% 97,417 100% 1,186 100% 129,983 100% C. ACTUAL EXPENDITURE VS PROJECTED 8. Resource Availability 31,380 97,417 1,186 129,983 9. Cash Spent at 7 January 2025 19,947 64% 63,812 66% 725 61% 84,484 65% 10. Cash to be Spent by 31 March 2025 11,433 33,605 461 45,499 D. ACTUAL RECEIPTS VS PROJECTED 11. Current Programme (total receipts expected) 3,518 30,830 600 34,948 12. Actual Cash Received at 7 January 2025 1,651 47% 18,457 60% 474 79% 20,582 59% 13. Receipts to be received by 31 March 2025 1,867 12,373 126 14,366 RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL 2024/25 CAPITAL BUDGETS MONITORING SUMMARY REPORT TO 7th JANUARY 2025