Revenue and Capital Budget Monitoring - Council Overview as at 19 June 2026
Renfrewshire Council · 10 September 2026
Back to Finance, Resources and Customer Services Policy Board — 10 September 2026 and its agenda
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PUBLIC ___________________________________________________________________ To: Finance, Resources and Customer Services Policy Board On: 10 September 2026 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Finance and Resources ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Revenue and Capital Budget Monitoring – Council Overview as at 19 June 2026 __________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary of Financial Position 1.1 At the close of reporting Period 3 on 19 June 2026, the projected revenue outturn position at 31 March 2027 for Council services is an overspend position of £0.936m (0.2%) against the revised budget for the year. Adult Services (HSCP) is projecting an overspend of £5.081m (4.3%), resulting in a net projected overspend of £6.017m (1.0%). 1.2 The projected capital outturn at 31 March 2027 all services is a break-even position. 1.3 This is split between General Fund Services and the Housing Revenue Account (HRA) in the table below, with further analysis provided in the Appendices. Table 1 Revised Annual Budget £000 Projected Outturn £000 Budget Variance (Adv)/Fav £000 Planned Use of Reserves £000 Revenue General Fund Services (Council) 503,217 504,153 (936) (1,034) Adult Services (HSCP) 118,809 123,890 (5,081) (7,849) Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 0 0 0 0 Total 622,026 628,043 (6,017) (8,883) Capital Variance % General Fund Services 119,193 119,193 0 0.0% Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 40,808 40,808 0 0.0% Total 160,001 160,001 0 0.0%
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PUBLIC 2. Recommendations 2.1 Members are requested to: a) Note the projected Revenue outturn overspend position of £6.017m; b) Note the projected Capital outturn break-even position; and c) Note the prudential indicators detailed in section 7 of the report. _________________________________________________________ 3. Revenue Budget Projection – overspend of £6.017m by 31 March 2027 3.1 The projected overspend of £6.017m across all services includes an overspend of £5.081m for Adult Services (HSCP). 3.2 The tables in Appendix 1 present the projected year-end position for all services, by both subjective analysis (what the budget is spent on) and objective analysis (which division is spending the budget). Significant variances affecting the projected position are analysed further below. 3.3 The projected outturn is based on information currently available, and assumptions made by service budget holders. Any changes to these projections will be detailed in future reports to this board. 4. Objective Analysis – Significant Variances 4.1 Communities & Housing (General Services) - £0.425m underspend Within Justice Social Work, an internal recharge from Education and Children’s Services for shared costs such as management and commissioned services is now estimated to underspend by £0.400m. This is consistent with the revised recharge model for 2025/26. Income and expenditure budgets will now be reviewed in light of this forecast, with a potential virement considered for future reports. 4.2 Education & Children’s Services - £1.496m overspend This projected overspend is as a result of three main expenditure areas: Early Learning and Childcare is forecast to overspend by £0.804m within employee costs and payments to partner providers. Savings options continue to be implemented by the service and are expected to reduce the level of this overspend as the year progresses. Both mainstream and ASL school transport are projected to overspend by £0.755m due to SPT contracts being higher than available budget, predominately caused by price inflation.
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PUBLIC Within Additional Support for Learning (ASL), employee costs are currently projected to overspend, due to an increase in demand for Additional Support Needs Assistants (ASNAs) within mainstream schools. This is a demand-led service and will be continually monitored as the year progresses. 4.3 Adult Services - £5.081m deficit The projected deficit of £5.081m is mainly due to increased costs within external Care at Home packages for Older People and those with Physical or Sensory Disabilities, together with overspends within Adult Care Placements for those with Learning Disabilities. The approved Adult Services revenue budget for 2026/27 estimated a deficit position of £7.849m, meaning that there was an expectation that services would overspend to this level during the year, and that this would be funded from IJB reserves. The reduction of £2.768m in the forecast deficit position is mainly due to a reduction in employee costs through vacancy management and ongoing recruitment and retention challenges, as well as the impact of recent savings proposals approved by the Integration Joint Board (IJB). 4.4 Housing Revenue Account (HRA) - break even The HRA is projected to achieve a break-even position in 2026/27. Whilst repairs and maintenance expenditure continues to be a budget pressure, current forecasts indicate that costs can be contained within available resources. 5. Capital Budget Projection – Housing Services Programme 5.1 The Housing Capital Investment Plan 2026/27 to 2030/31 was approved by Council on 26 February 2026. For 2026/27, the approved capital budget totalled £40.808mm. The current programme totals £40.808m, indicating no budget adjustments since the plan was approved. 5.2 Capital expenditure to 19 June 2026 amounted to £10.771m, representing 26% of available resources, compared to 6% for the same period in 2025/26. 5.3 6% of expected capital income has been received to date, compared to 6% for the equivalent period in 2025/26. This indicator is dependent on the timing of asset disposals, and on the receipt of grants. 5.4 The projected outturn position, after budget changes, is for the Housing Services Programme to break even (see Appendix 2).
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PUBLIC However, inflationary impacts of delays to work and related cost estimates are still ongoing and may result in this forecast being revised at a future date. 6. Capital Monitoring: Non-Housing Services Programme 6.1 The Non-Housing Capital Investment Programme 2026/27 to 2035/36 was approved by Council on 26 February 2026. For 2026/27, the approved capital budget totalled £106.197m. The current revised programme totals £119.193m (an increase of £12.996m) resulting from the net effect of: • Budget increases of £6.537m, mainly as result of grant funding approved by Transport Scotland for £1.509m for Active Travel Funding Teir 1, the Red Smiddy Roundabout to Erskine Active Travel Tier 2 £0.780m and the Scottish Government Emergency Flooding Fund grant of £1.496m. • Budget carried forward from 2025/26 into 2026/27 of £7.892m, mainly as a result of Artificial Pitch Fund (£0.781m) not anticipated to commence until later in the financial year, as well as Community Halls Refurbishment (£0.479m), Lagoon Internal Play Centre (£0.496m), Place Based Investment Fund (£0.563m) and Ferguslie Belltrees (£0.610) not anticipated to be complete until early next financial year. The remainder relates to various smaller adjustments. • Budget reprofiled to 2027/28 of (£1.433m), mainly as a result of the Town Centre Regeneration to reflect updated programme scheduling. 6.2 Capital expenditure to 19 June 2026 totals £10.817m, representing 9% of the available resources, compared to 13% for the equivalent period in 2025/26. 6.3 Capital income totalling £29.396m has been received to 19 June 2026. This represents 69% of the total anticipated income, compared to 13% for the equivalent period in 2025/26. This is due to the receipt of Levelling Up Fund grant of £23.198m in advance of expenditure. 6.4 The projected outturn position after these budget changes is to break even (see Appendix 2). However, the full impact of inflation on capital costs on each project is not yet known, with increased costs through inflation and compliance expected to lead to the risk of overspends across the capital programme.
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PUBLIC 7. Capital Overview: Prudential Indicators 7.1 The Council is required to set prudential indicators to ensure that its capital investment plans are affordable, proportionate, prudent and sustainable. The current prudential indicators were approved, alongside the housing and non- housing capital investment programmes, by Council on 26 February 2026. 7.2 The CIPFA Prudential Code 2021 recommends that from 2024/25, a regular update is provided to Members noting the current forecasts for prudential indicators compared to those approved at the start of the financial year. These are outlined in 7.4 to 7.8 below. 7.3 The Council will be asked to approve updated Prudential Indicators in December 2026 as part of the mid-year progress report. 7.4 Capital Expenditure: The limit on capital expenditure that the Council has set for 2026/27 is shown in the table below. The limit is based on the resources available to fund the capital programmes, split between Housing and Non-Housing Services, but excludes the Public Sector Housing Grant, as this is not considered to be capital spend for the Council. The increase in forecast is due to the factors outlined at 6.1 above. Approved Plan £m Forecast Expenditure £m Non-Housing 107 119 Housing 41 41 Total 148 160 7.5 Capital Finance Requirement (CFR): The CFR originally planned by the Council for 2026/27 is shown in the table below and is split between Housing and Non-Housing Services. The projected outturn at 31 March 2027 is also shown. Any significant increase in the capital expenditure without planned funding at the point of spend will result in an increase to the CFR. Planned CFR to 31 March 2027 £m Projected CFR to 31 March 2027 £m Non-Housing 539 546 Housing 183 174 Total 722 720
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PUBLIC 7.6 Operational Boundary: This is the focus of day-to-day treasury management activity within the Council and is an estimate of the most likely, but not worst case, scenario in terms of cashflow. Risk analysis and risk management strategies are taken into account, as are plans for capital expenditure, estimates of the CFR and estimates of cashflow requirements for all purposes. It is possible that this boundary could be breached occasionally and this should not be regarded as significant. However, a sustained or regular trend of such would be significant and require investigation and action. Planned Operational Boundary to 31 March 2027 £m Projected Operational Boundary to 31 March 2027 £m Borrowing 601 598 Other Long-Term Liabilities 121 122 Total 722 720 7.7 Authorised Limit: This is based on the same assumptions as the Operational Boundary, with additional headroom to ensure sufficient capacity to allow for both planned and exceptional cashflow requirements, without breaching the limit. The reasons for movement are as above. Planned Authorised Limit to 31 March 2027 £m Projected Authorised Limit to 31 March 2027 £m Borrowing 631 629 Other Long-Term Liabilities 121 122 Total 752 751 7.8 Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue: A key measure of affordability is the incremental impact of investment decisions on Council Tax or housing rents. Estimates of the ratio of financing costs to net revenue stream provide an indication of how much of the Council’s revenue budget is committed to the repayment of debt. Approved Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue 2026/27 % Projected Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue 2026/27 % Non-Housing 3.70 3.54 Housing 19.52 19.33
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PUBLIC Financing costs include the interest payable with respect to forecast borrowing levels, interest payable on finance leases, interest and investment income, loans fund and finance lease principal repayments and gains/losses on the repurchase or early settlement of borrowing. There is only a marginal change in the projected ratios due to updated spend profiling and interest rate outlook. Revenue streams relate either to the amounts received in terms of government grant and local taxpayers for Non-Housing, or to the amounts received from tenants in respect of housing rents for Housing. 8. Private Sector Housing Grant Programme 8.1. The overall budget provision for this programme is included within the revenue budget. However, in order to monitor the performance of the individual programmes, it is included within capital budget monitoring procedures. 8.2. The Council approved expenditure up to £0.750m for 2026/27. The current revised programme totals £1.083m (an increase of £0.333m) reflecting revised timing in relation to spend on disability adaptations. 8.3. The programme is expected to fully spend by 31 March 2027 and will be contained within the overall resources. Implications of the Report 1. Financial The projected budget outturn position for General Fund Services Revenue budget, including HSCP, is an overspend of £6.017m (1.0%) and break even for the HRA Revenue budget. Income and expenditure will continue to be monitored closely for the rest of the financial year and, where necessary, steps will be taken to mitigate any overspends. The projected outturn position for General Fund Services and HRA Capital budgets is a break-even position. The Capital programme will continue to be monitored closely for the rest of the financial year. 2. HR & Organisational Development While staffing budgets form a significant proportion of the Council’s revenue budget, there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report.
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PUBLIC 3. Community/Council Planning Community Plan Our Renfrewshire is thriving The Council’s revenue and capital spend ensures that its facilities are fit for purpose and safe for the community, to maximise accessibility. Our Renfrewshire is well Our Renfrewshire is fair Our Renfrewshire is safe Council Plan Reshaping our place, our economy and our future The Council’s revenue and capital spend ensures that its facilities are fit for purpose and safe for the community, to maximise accessibility. Building strong, safe and resilient communities Tackling inequality, ensuring opportunities for all Creating a sustainable Renfrewshire for all to enjoy Ongoing revenue and capital budget monitoring is a tool to enable good financial management so that the Council has resources now and in the future for continued service delivery. Working together to improve outcomes 4. Legal There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 5. Property/Assets The capital expenditure noted in this report will result in lifecycle maintenance improvements to existing properties and replacement of ICT, infrastructure, and plant and equipment. 6. Information Technology There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 7. Equality & Human Rights While new areas of spend may impact on particular groups, any such impact would be assessed prior to the spend being incurred, therefore there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 8. Health & Safety There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report.
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PUBLIC 9. Procurement While Procurement is an important consideration prior to the Council incurring any revenue or capital spend, there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 10. Risk The potential financial risk that the Council will overspend its approved revenue budgets for the year is managed at a Council-wide level by the Chief Executive and Directors. 11. Privacy Impact There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 12. Cosla Policy Position - N/a 13. Children’s Rights There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 14. Climate Change The Council aims to reduce its carbon and other emissions to net zero by 2030, however there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. ___________________________________________________________________ List of Background Papers • Revenue Budget and Council Tax 2026/27, Council 26 February 2026 • Non-Housing Capital Investment Programme, Prudential Framework and Treasury Management Strategy, and Capital Strategy 2026/27 – 2035/36, Council 26 February 2026 • 2026/27 Delegated Health and Social Care Budget, Renfrewshire Integration Joint Board, 27 March 2026 ___________________________________________________________________ Author: Valerie Howie, Finance Business Partner Linsey McGregor, Accountant (Capital)
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Appendix 1 PUBLIC RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL REVENUE BUDGET MONITORING STATEMENT 2026/27 1 April 2026 to 19 June 2026 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES - OVERVIEW Policy Board - Objective Summary Approved Annual Budget Budget Adjustments Revised Annual Budget at Period 3 Projected Outturn Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 % Communities and Housing 14,001 1,689 15,690 15,265 425 2.7% Education and Children's Services 294,353 831 295,184 296,680 (1,496) (0.5%) Infrastructure, Land and Environment 46,475 472 46,947 47,097 (150) (0.3%) Finance, Resources and Customer Services 113,302 844 114,146 113,948 198 0.2% Adult Services 118,318 491 118,809 123,890 (5,081) (4.3%) Planning and Climate Change 1,176 33 1,209 1,229 (20) (1.7%) Economy and Regeneration 2,972 1,542 4,514 4,412 102 2.3% Chief Executive's Service 24,609 918 25,527 25,522 5 0.0% GENERAL SERVICES NET EXPENDITURE 615,206 6,820 622,026 628,043 (6,017) (1.0%) Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% NET EXPENDITURE 615,206 6,820 622,026 628,043 (6,017) (1.0%)
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Appendix 1 PUBLIC RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL REVENUE BUDGET MONITORING STATEMENT 2026/27 1 April 2026 to 19 June 2026 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES - OVERVIEW Subjective Summary Approved Annual Budget Budget Adjustments Revised Annual Budget at Period 3 Total Projected Outturn Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 % Employees 412,962 11,180 424,142 420,269 3,873 0.9% Premises Related 55,614 (61) 55,553 56,299 (746) (1.3%) Transport Related 20,906 903 21,809 22,746 (937) (4.3%) Supplies and Services 105,325 3,462 108,787 109,770 (983) (0.9%) Third Party Payments 98,788 21,790 120,578 127,910 (7,332) (6.1%) Transfer Payments 98,890 (16,881) 82,009 82,230 (221) (0.3%) Support Services 5,147 364 5,511 5,609 (98) (1.8%) Depreciation and Impairment Losses 43,911 298 44,209 44,209 0 0.0% GROSS EXPENDITURE 841,543 21,055 862,598 869,042 (6,444) (0.7%) Income (226,337) (14,235) (240,572) (240,999) 427 0.2% NET EXPENDITURE 615,206 6,820 622,026 628,043 (6,017) (1.0%)
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Appendix 2 PUBLIC Prior Years Approved Budget Revised Projected Expenditure Budget Adjustments Budget Outturn Total Approved Projected to 31/03/2026* 2026-27 since previous 2026-76 2026-27 Budget Outurn Board report to 31-Mar-30 to 31-Mar-30 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 EDUCATION & CHILDREN'S SERVICES Education & Children's Services 141,414 51,106 (4,240) 46,866 46,867 (1) 0% 320,349 320,349 0 0% TOTAL 141,414 51,106 (4,240) 46,866 46,867 (1) 0% 320,349 320,349 0 0% COMMUNITIES, HOUSING & PLANNING Housing (HRA) 33,290 40,808 0 40,808 40,808 0 0% 370,628 370,628 0 0% Housing (PSHG) 1,190 750 333 1,083 1,083 0 0% 5,274 5,274 0 0% TOTAL 34,480 41,558 333 41,891 41,891 0 0% 375,902 375,902 0 0% INFRASTRUCTURE, LAND & ENVIRONMENT Environment & Infrastructure 153,001 13,252 7,347 20,599 20,599 0 0% 233,499 233,499 0 0% TOTAL 153,001 13,252 7,347 20,599 20,599 0 0% 233,499 233,499 0 0% ECONOMY & REGENERATION Economy and Development 109,658 7,382 1,223 8,605 8,605 0 0% 119,303 119,303 0 0% TOTAL 109,658 7,382 1,223 8,605 8,605 0 0% 119,303 119,303 0 0% FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES Corporate Projects 29,318 6,265 3,129 9,394 9,394 0 0% 57,596 57,596 0 0% TOTAL 29,318 6,265 3,129 9,394 9,394 0 0% 57,596 57,596 0 0% PLANNING & CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Projects 443 292 1,019 1,311 1,311 0 0% 1,754 1,754 0 0% TOTAL 443 292 1,019 1,311 1,311 0 0% 1,754 1,754 0 0% LEADERSHIP Leisure Services 322 1,180 4,242 5,422 5,422 0 0% 5,744 5,744 0 0% Chief Executives 183,935 26,720 276 26,996 26,996 0 0% 229,548 229,548 0 0% TOTAL 184,257 27,900 4,518 32,418 32,418 0 0% 235,292 235,292 0 0% TOTAL ALL BOARDS 652,571 147,755 13,329 161,084 161,085 (1) 0.0% 1,343,695 1,343,695 0 0% 2 MADE UP OF: Non-Housing Programme 618,091 106,197 12,996 119,193 119,193 0 0% 967,793 967,793 0 0% Housing Programme (HRA) 33,290 40,808 0 40,808 40,808 0 0% 370,628 370,628 0 0% Housing Programme (PSHG) 1,190 750 333 1,083 1,083 0 0% 5,274 5,274 0 0% PROGRAMME TOTAL 652,571 147,755 13,329 161,084 161,084 0 0.0% 1,343,695 1,343,695 0 0% Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL CAPITAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY - NON-HOUSING SERVICES 1st April to 19th June 2026 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES Current Year 2026-27 Full Programme - All years
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Appendix 2 PUBLIC 2026/27 Housing Non Housing PSHG Total Services Services Programme A. RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO FUND CAPITAL PROGRAMME £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 1. Prudential Borrowing 31,106 47,762 78,868 2a General Capital Grant 14,547 750 15,297 2b. Specific Capital Grant 9,702 668 10,370 3. Usable Capital Receipts 0 27,504 27,504 4. Contribution From Current Revenue (CFCR) 0 28,712 333 29,045 5 Total Resource Availability 40,808 119,193 1,083 161,084 B. CAPITAL PROGRAMME 6. Resources Available 40,808 119,193 1,083 161,084 7. Current Programme 40,808 100% 119,193 100% 1,083 100% 161,084 100% C. ACTUAL EXPENDITURE VS PROJECTED 8. Resource Availability 40,808 119,193 1,083 161,084 9. Cash Spent at 19 June 2026 10,771 26% 10,817 9% 109 10% 21,697 13% 10. Cash to be Spent by 31 March 2027 30,037 108,376 974 139,387 D. ACTUAL RECEIPTS VS PROJECTED 11. Current Programme (total receipts expected) 9,702 42,719 750 53,171 12. Actual Cash Received at 19 June 2026 603 6% 29,396 69% 220 29% 30,219 57% 13. Receipts to be received by 31 March 2027 9,099 13,323 530 22,952