Revenue and Capital Budget Monitoring Overview Report
Renfrewshire Council · 5 February 2026
Back to Finance, Resources and Customer Services Policy Board — 5 February 2026 and its agenda
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PUBLIC ___________________________________________________________________ To: Finance, Resources and Customer Services Policy Board On: 5 February 2026 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Finance and Resources ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Revenue and Capital Budget Monitoring – Council Overview as at 14 November 2025 __________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary of Financial Position 1.1 At the close of reporting Period 8 on 14 November 2025, the projected revenue outturn position at 31 March 2026 for Council services is an overspend position of £1.742m (0.4%) against the revised budget for the year. Adult Services (HSCP) is projecting an overspend of £5.393m (4.8%), resulting in a combined projected overspend of £7.135m (1.3%). 1.2 The projected capital outturn at 31 March 2026 all services is a break-even position. 1.3 This is split between General Fund Services and the Housing Revenue Account (HRA) in the table below, with further analysis provided in the Appendices. Table 1 Revised Annual Budget £000 Projected Outturn £000 Budget Variance (Adv)/Fav £000 Planned Use of Reserves £000 Revenue General Fund Services (Council) 456.858 458.600 (1.742) (0.445) Adult Services (HSCP) 111.791 117.184 (5.393) (5.969) Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 0 0 0 0 Total 568.649 575.784 (7.135) (6.414) Capital Variance % General Fund Services 113.586 113.586 0 0.0% Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 46.546 46.546 0 0.0% Total 160.132 160.132 0 0.0%
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PUBLIC 2. Recommendations 2.1 Members are requested to: a) Note the projected Revenue outturn overspend position of £7.135m; b) Note the projected Capital outturn break-even position; and c) Note the prudential indicators detailed in section 7 of the report. _________________________________________________________ 3. Revenue Budget Projection – overspend of £7.135m by 31 March 2026 3.1 The projected overspend of £7.135m across all services includes £5.393m for Adult Services (HSCP), leaving a forecast overspend of £1.742m for Council services. 3.2 The tables in Appendix 1 present the projected year-end position for all services, by both subjective analysis (what the budget is spent on) and objective analysis (which division is spending the budget). Significant variances affecting the projected position are analysed further below. 3.3 The projected outturn is based on information currently available, and assumptions made by service budget holders. Any changes to these projections will be detailed in future reports to this board. 4. Objective Analysis – Significant Variances 4.1 Education & Children’s Services - £1.061m overspend This projected overspend includes £1.077m of Transport Costs mainly due to SPT contracts for both mainstream and ASN school transport being higher than available budget, predominately caused by price inflation. The projected overspend also includes £0.906m within Early Learning & Childcare in relation to payments to partner providers, and in Children & Families in relation to Direct Payments and Section 22 payments, which are demand- driven. There are pressures within Employee Costs for teaching staffing across Primary, Secondary and ASN schools and for non-teaching staffing in Additional Support for Learning due to the demand for Additional Support Needs Assistants. These overspends are partly offset by underspends projected in Third Party Payments of £1.451m mainly due to the number of fostering and kinship arrangements being less than previously predicted, and a projected over- recovery of income (£0.278m) within Primary and Secondary schools in relation to insurance premium rebates within schools PPP contracts.
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PUBLIC 4.2 Infrastructure, Land & Environment - £0.380m overspend The projected overspend arises from two main areas of the service, being Waste Services and Social Transport. Within Refuse Collection employee costs are impacting the overspend, with contract inflation in Waste Disposal also creating pressures. In Social Transport, the pressure arises from the need to hire agency staff to cover for long-term sickness absence and vacancies. The service is actively working with HR to effectively manage this within the team. 4.3 Finance, Resources & Customer Services - £0.408m overspend The anticipated overspend is mainly driven by Public Building Repairs (£0.402m), still owing to the continued inflationary and cost pressures that have been experienced by the service over the last few financial years. The position has improved since last year and continues to be closely monitored, with work ongoing to understand the underlying cost drivers. 4.4 Adult Services - £5.393m overspend The overspend is mainly due to external care at home packages for both Older People and those with Physical or Sensory Disabilities. This results from increased acuity of patients with more complex needs discharged from hospital, meaning more intensive Care at Home packages are required to support people to remain in their own homes. There is also a forecast overspend within Learning Disabilities in relation to Adult Care Placements driven by increases in client needs, and therefore service demand. 4.5 Housing Revenue Account (HRA) - break even The HRA is projected to break-even overall in 2025/26. Demand for repairs to HRA premises, including void properties, is still currently expected to be managed within the revised budget levels. 5. Capital Budget Projection – Housing Services Programme 5.1 The HRA Capital Investment Programme 2025/26 to 2029/30 was approved by the Council on 27 February 2025. For 2025/26, the approved capital budget totalled £46.546m. The current programme totals £46.546m, indicating no budget adjustments since the last board report. 5.2 Capital expenditure to 14 November 2025 amounted to £18.794m, representing 40% of available resources, compared to 46% for the same period in 2024/25. This is as a result of planned council house new build not anticipated to commence until later in the financial year.
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PUBLIC 5.3 16% of expected capital income has been received to date, compared to 22% for the equivalent period in 2024/25. This indicator is dependent on the timing of asset disposals, and on the receipt of grants. 5.4 The projected outturn position, after budget changes, is for the Housing Services Programme to break even (see Appendix 2). However, inflationary impacts of delays to work and related cost estimates are still ongoing and may result in this forecast being revised at a future date. 6. Capital Monitoring: Non-Housing Services Programme 6.1 The General Services Capital Investment Programme 2025/26 to 2029/30 was approved by Council on 27 February 2025. For 2025/26, the approved capital budget totalled £118.774m. The current revised programme totals £113.586m (a decrease of £5.188m) resulting mainly from the net effect of: • budget increases of £0.538m, mainly as result of grant funding approved by Transport Scotland of £0.259m for the implementation of the 20mph speed limit and Candren Burn Restoration £0.100m approved at the Economy & Regeneration Board in August; and • budget carried forward from 2025/26 into 2026/27 of (£5.726m), mainly as a result of lifecycle maintenance projects (£3.000m) not anticipated to commence until later in the financial year as well as Artificial Pitch Upgrades (£0.615m) and Lagoon Internal Play Centre (£0.500m) not anticipated to be complete until early next financial year. 6.2 Capital expenditure to 14 November 2025 totals £57.057m, representing 50% of the available resources, compared to 43% for the equivalent period in 2024/25. 6.3 Capital income totalling £27.821m has been received to 14 November 2025. This represents 71% of the total anticipated income, compared to 41% for the equivalent period in 2024/25. This is due to receipt of the City Deal Grant of £13.7m in 2025/26. 6.4 The projected outturn position after these budget changes is to break even (see Appendix 2). However, the full impact of inflation on capital costs on each project is not yet known, with increased costs through inflation and compliance expected to lead to the risk of overspends across the capital programme.
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PUBLIC 7. Capital Overview: Prudential Indicators 7.1 The Council is required to set prudential indicators to ensure that its capital investment plans are affordable, proportionate, prudent and sustainable. The current prudential indicators were approved in the mid-year review by Council on 11 December 2025. 7.2 The CIPFA Prudential Code 2021 recommends that from 2024/25, a regular update is provided to Members noting the current forecasts for prudential indicators compared to those approved at the start of the financial year. These are outlined in 7.3 to 7.7 below. 7.3 Capital Expenditure: The limit on capital expenditure that the Council has set for 2025/26 is shown in the table below. The limit is based on the resources available to fund the capital programmes, split between Housing and Non-Housing Services, but excludes the Public Sector Housing Grant, as this is not considered to be capital spend for the Council. Approved Plan £m Forecast Expenditure £m Non-Housing 113 114 Housing 47 47 Total 160 161 7.5 Capital Finance Requirement (CFR): The CFR originally planned by the Council for 2025/26 is shown in the table below and is split between Housing and Non-Housing Services. The projected outturn at 31 March 2026 is also shown. Any significant increase in the capital expenditure without planned funding at the point of spend will result in an increase to the CFR. Planned CFR to 31 March 2026 £m Projected CFR to 31 March 2026 £m Non-Housing 518 518 Housing 156 156 Total 674 674 7.6 Operational Boundary: This is the focus of day-to-day treasury management activity within the Council and is an estimate of the most likely, but not worst case, scenario in terms of cashflow. Risk analysis and risk management strategies are taken into account, as are plans for capital expenditure, estimates of the CFR and estimates of cashflow requirements for all purposes.
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PUBLIC It is possible that this boundary could be breached occasionally and this should not be regarded as significant. However, a sustained or regular trend of such would be significant and require investigation and action. Planned Operational Boundary to 31 March 2026 £m Projected Operational Boundary to 31 March 2026 £m Borrowing 550 550 Other Long-Term Liabilities 124 124 Total 674 674 7.7 Authorised Limit: This is based on the same assumptions as the Operational Boundary, with additional headroom to ensure sufficient capacity to allow for both planned and exceptional cashflow requirements, without breaching the limit. The reasons for movement are as above. Planned Authorised Limit to 31 March 2026 £m Projected Authorised Limit to 31 March 2026 £m Borrowing 578 579 Other Long-Term Liabilities 124 124 Total 702 703 7.8 Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue: A key measure of affordability is the incremental impact of investment decisions on Council Tax or housing rents. Estimates of the ratio of financing costs to net revenue stream provide an indication of how much of the Council’s revenue budget is committed to the repayment of debt. Approved Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue 2025/26 % Projected Ratio of Financing Costs to Net Revenue 2025/26 % Non-Housing 2.73 3.04 Housing 24.53 24.15 Financing costs include the interest payable with respect to forecast borrowing levels, interest payable on finance leases, interest and investment income, loans fund and finance lease principal repayments and gains/losses on the repurchase or early settlement of borrowing. There is only a marginal change in the projected ratios due to the updated profiling and interest rate outlook.
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PUBLIC Revenue streams relate either to the amounts received in terms of government grant and local taxpayers for Non-Housing, or to the amounts received from tenants in respect of housing rents for Housing. Private Sector Housing Grant Programme 8.1. The overall budget provision for this programme is included within the revenue budget. However, in order to monitor the performance of the individual programmes, it is included within capital budget monitoring procedures. 8.2. The Council approved expenditure up to £1.100m for 2025/26. The current revised programme totals £1.100m indicating no budget adjustments since the previous Communities and Housing Policy Board on 19 September 2025. 8.3. The programme is expected to fully spend by 31 March 2026 and will be contained within the overall resources. Implications of the Report 1. Financial The projected budget outturn position for General Fund Services Revenue budget, including HSCP, is an overspend of £7.135m (1.3%) and break even for the HRA Revenue budget. Income and expenditure will continue to be monitored closely for the rest of the financial year and, where necessary, steps will be taken to mitigate any overspends. The projected outturn position for General Fund Services and HRA Capital budgets is a break-even position. The Capital programme will continue to be monitored closely for the rest of the financial year. Any changes to current projections in either Revenue or Capital budgets will be detailed in future reports to this board. 2. HR & Organisational Development While staffing budgets form a significant proportion of the Council’s revenue budgets, there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 3. Community/Council Planning Community Plan Our Renfrewshire is thriving The Council’s revenue and capital spend ensures that its facilities are fit for purpose and safe for the community, to maximise accessibility. Our Renfrewshire is well Our Renfrewshire is fair
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PUBLIC Our Renfrewshire is safe Council Plan Reshaping our place, our economy and our future The Council’s revenue and capital spend ensures that its facilities are fit for purpose and safe for the community, to maximise accessibility. Building strong, safe and resilient communities Tackling inequality, ensuring opportunities for all Creating a sustainable Renfrewshire for all to enjoy Ongoing revenue and capital budget monitoring is a tool to enable good financial management so that the Council has resources now and in the future for continued service delivery. Working together to improve outcomes 4. Legal There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 5. Property/Assets The capital expenditure noted in this report will result in lifecycle maintenance improvements to existing properties and replacement of ICT, infrastructure, and plant and equipment. 6. Information Technology There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 7. Equality & Human Rights While new areas of spend may impact on particular groups, any such impact would be assessed prior to the spend being incurred, therefore there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 8. Health & Safety There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 9. Procurement While Procurement is an important consideration prior to the Council incurring any revenue or capital spend, there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report.
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PUBLIC 10. Risk The potential financial risk that the Council will overspend its approved revenue budgets for the year is managed at a Council-wide level by the Chief Executive and Directors. 11. Privacy Impact There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 12. Cosla Policy Position - N/a 13. Children’s Rights - There are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. 14. Climate Change The Council aims to reduce its carbon and other emissions to net zero by 2030, however there are no direct implications arising from the recommendations in this report. ___________________________________________________________________ List of Background Papers • Revenue Budget and Council Tax 2024/25, Council 27 February 2025 • The Capital Investment Programme 2025/26 to 2029/30, Council 27 February 2025 • 2025/26 Delegated Health and Social Care Budget, Renfrewshire Integration Joint Board 21 March 2025 ___________________________________________________________________ Author: Alison Burns, Corporate Finance Manager Linsey McGregor, Accountant (Capital)
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Appendix 1 PUBLIC RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL REVENUE BUDGET MONITORING STATEMENT 2025/26 1 April 2025 to 14 November 2025 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES - OVERVIEW Policy Board - Objective Summary Annual Budget at Period 6 Budget Adjustments Revised Annual Budget at Period 8 Projected Outturn Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable Previous Projected Outturn Variance Movement £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 % £000 £000 Communities and Housing Services 15,269 7 15,276 15,276 0 0.0% 0 0 Education and Children's Services 278,189 (71) 278,118 279,179 (1,061) (0.4%) (154) (907) Infrastructure, Land and Environment 39,717 48 39,765 40,145 (380) (1.0%) (252) (128) Finance, Resources and Customer Services 97,473 68 97,541 97,949 (408) (0.4%) (513) 105 Adult Services 111,791 0 111,791 117,184 (5,393) (4.8%) (5,482) 89 Planning 857 (1) 856 824 32 3.7% 15 17 Economy and Regeneration 3,172 (4) 3,168 3,111 57 1.8% 22 35 Chief Executive's Service 21,757 377 22,134 22,116 18 0.1% 23 (5) GENERAL SERVICES NET EXPENDITURE 568,225 424 568,649 575,784 (7,135) (1.3%) (6,341) (794) Housing Revenue Account (HRA) 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 NET EXPENDITURE 568,225 424 568,649 575,784 (7,135) (1.3%) (6,341) (794)
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Appendix 1 PUBLIC RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL REVENUE BUDGET MONITORING STATEMENT 2025/26 1 April 2025 to 14 November 2025 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES - OVERVIEW Subjective Summary Annual Budget at Period 6 Budget Adjustments Revised Annual Budget at Period 8 Total Projected Outturn Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable Previous Projected Outturn Variance Movement £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 % £000 £000 Employees 392,611 159 392,770 391,117 1,653 0.4% 3,139 (1,486) Premises Related 56,350 317 56,667 58,377 (1,710) (3.0%) (2,055) 345 Transport Related 19,160 (50) 19,110 20,288 (1,178) (6.2%) (901) (277) Supplies and Services 97,439 112 97,551 99,293 (1,742) (1.8%) (594) (1,148) Third Party Payments 97,509 90 97,599 102,447 (4,848) (5.0%) (4,998) 150 Transfer Payments 101,099 (9,198) 91,901 93,080 (1,179) (1.3%) (1,027) (152) Support Services 6,460 (18) 6,442 6,555 (113) (1.8%) (148) 35 Depreciation and Impairment Losses 37,168 (35) 37,133 37,124 9 0.0% (15) 24 GROSS EXPENDITURE 807,796 (8,623) 799,173 808,281 (9,108) (1.1%) (6,599) (2,509) Income (239,571) 9,047 (230,524) (232,497) 1,973 0.9% 258 1,715 NET EXPENDITURE 568,225 424 568,649 575,784 (7,135) (1.3%) (6,341) (794)
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Appendix 2 PUBLIC Prior Years Approved Budget Revised Projected Expenditure Budget Adjustments Budget Outturn Total Approved Projected to 31/03/2025* 2025-26 since previous 2025-26 2025-26 Budget Outurn Board report to 31-Mar-30 to 31-Mar-30 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 £000 EDUCATION & CHILDREN'S SERVICES Education & Children's Services 51,019 53,194 0 53,194 53,194 0 0% 201,371 201,371 0 0% TOTAL 51,019 53,194 0 53,194 53,194 0 0% 201,371 201,371 0 0% COMMUNITIES, HOUSING & PLANNING Housing (HRA) 57,731 46,546 0 46,546 46,546 0 0% 350,163 350,163 0 0% Housing (PSHG) 0 1,100 0 1,100 1,100 0 0% 4,700 4,700 0 0% TOTAL 57,731 47,646 0 47,646 47,646 0 0% 354,863 354,863 0 0% INFRASTRUCTURE, LAND & ENVIRONMENT Environment & Infrastructure 3,637 17,058 (433) 16,625 16,625 0 0% 89,528 89,528 0 0% TOTAL 3,637 17,058 (433) 16,625 16,625 0 0% 89,528 89,528 0 0% ECONOMY & REGENERATION Economy and Development 98,353 18,850 (400) 18,450 18,450 0 0% 124,187 124,187 0 0% TOTAL 98,353 18,850 (400) 18,450 18,450 0 0% 124,187 124,187 0 0% FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES Corporate Projects 4,404 9,662 (3,565) 6,097 6,097 0 0% 33,250 33,250 0 0% TOTAL 4,404 9,662 (3,565) 6,097 6,097 0 0% 33,250 33,250 0 0% PLANNING & CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Projects 0 875 0 875 875 0 0% 1,167 1,167 0 0% TOTAL 0 875 0 875 875 0 0% 1,167 1,167 0 0% LEADERSHIP Leisure Services 25,402 3,013 (790) 2,223 2,223 0 0% 28,805 28,805 0 0% Chief Executives 169,252 16,122 0 16,122 16,122 0 0% 229,198 229,198 0 0% TOTAL 194,654 19,135 (790) 18,345 18,345 0 0% 258,003 258,003 0 0% TOTAL ALL BOARDS 409,798 166,420 (5,188) 161,232 161,232 0 0.0% 1,062,369 1,062,369 0 0% MADE UP OF: Non-Housing Programme 352,067 118,774 (5,188) 113,586 113,586 0 0% 707,506 707,506 0 0% Housing Programme (HRA) 57,731 46,546 0 46,546 46,546 0 0% 350,163 350,163 0 0% Housing Programme (PSHG) 0 1,100 0 1,100 1,100 0 0% 4,700 4,700 0 0% PROGRAMME TOTAL 409,798 166,420 (5,188) 161,232 161,232 0 0.0% 1,062,369 1,062,369 0 0% Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable Budget Variance (Adverse) or Favourable RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL CAPITAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY - NON-HOUSING SERVICES 1st April to 14th November 2025 POLICY BOARD: FINANCE, RESOURCES & CUSTOMER SERVICES Current Year 2025-26 Full Programme - All years
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Appendix 2 PUBLIC 2025/26 Housing Non Housing PSHG Total Services Services Programme A. RESOURCES AVAILABLE TO FUND CAPITAL PROGRAMME £'000 £'000 £'000 £'000 1. Prudential Borrowing 36,037 52,922 88,959 2a General Capital Grant 14,826 750 15,576 2b. Specific Capital Grant 5,000 1,107 6,107 3. Usable Capital Receipts 575 23,390 23,965 4. Contribution From Current Revenue (CFCR) 4,934 21,341 350 26,625 5 Total Resource Availability 46,546 113,586 1,100 161,232 B. CAPITAL PROGRAMME 6. Resources Available 46,546 113,586 1,100 161,232 7. Current Programme 46,546 100% 113,586 100% 1,100 100% 161,232 100% C. ACTUAL EXPENDITURE VS PROJECTED 8. Resource Availability 46,546 113,586 1,100 161,232 9. Cash Spent at 14 November 2025 18,794 40% 57,057 50% 487 44% 76,338 47% 10. Cash to be Spent by 31 March 2026 27,752 56,529 613 84,894 D. ACTUAL RECEIPTS VS PROJECTED 11. Current Programme (total receipts expected) 5,575 39,323 750 45,648 12. Actual Cash Received at 14 November 2025 902 16% 27,821 71% 440 59% 29,163 64% 13. Receipts to be received by 31 March 2026 4,673 11,502 310 16,485 RENFREWSHIRE COUNCIL 2025/26 CAPITAL BUDGETS MONITORING SUMMARY REPORT TO 14th November 2025