National Qualifications Results 2022 ECSPB
Renfrewshire Council · 27 October 2022
Back to Education and Children's Services Policy Board — 27 October 2022 and its agenda
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___________________________________________________________________ To: Education and Children’s Services Policy Board On: 27 October 2022 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Children’s Services Heading: National Qualifications Results 2022 ___________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1 This report summarises attainment in the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) National Qualifications in 2022, based on the key measures contained within the Insight benchmarking tool. 1.2 The 2022 exam diet saw a return to the traditional model of assessment. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, alternative methods of assessment were put in place for the 2020 and 2021 exam diet. As such, we should be cautious in making direct comparisons between years that had different assessment approaches. 1.3 Skills Development Scotland are currently tracking school leavers’ destinations. Insight is normally updated in spring and a further report providing data on our school leavers’ attainment will be submitted to the Education and Children Service’s Policy Board when this data becomes available. This report will provide data on the attainment of all pupils in the senior phase by stage (S4, S5 and S6). __________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1 Members of the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board are asked to: note the content of this report; note the efforts of pupils and the school communities in achieving these results; and
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agree that a further report will be brought to the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board when leavers data becomes available. 3. Background 3.1 Insight is a performance evaluation tool provided by the Scottish Government to schools and education authorities as a way of benchmarking performance in four key measures: Attainment in literacy and numeracy; Improving attainment for all; Attainment versus deprivation; and Leavers’ destinations. 3.2 This report provides data and commentary on the performance of each of our senior phase cohorts (S4, S5 and S6) over the last three years and against our virtual comparator for three of the measures detailed above. Leavers’ destinations will become available in February/March 2023 and will form part of the report to this board in spring 2023 or as soon thereafter if the data release is delayed. 3.3 In addition to these local benchmarking measures, this report will provide data in relation to the number and quality of passes at each qualifications level. 3.4 The methodology for the Insight ‘virtual comparator’ (VC) is unchanged in 2022. The virtual comparator allows authorities and schools to make statistically valid comparisons between how young people have performed against young people nationally, who share four similar characteristics. These characteristics are gender, year group, percentage of time spent in mainstream classes, and live within an area with the same Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) decile. 4. Attainment in literacy and numeracy (S4, S5 and S6) 4.1 Raising attainment in literacy and numeracy remains a key priority of Renfrewshire Council children’s services and this is reflected in one of the key priorities of the National Improvement Framework. 4.2 Attainment in literacy and numeracy includes passes at National 4 and 5 in English and maths and passes in some other awards at Scottish Certificate and Qualification Framework (SCQF) levels 4 and 5 which contain certain core elements of literacy and numeracy. The tables which follow, provide data on our performance in literacy and numeracy, alongside our virtual comparator and national figures, for each of our senior phase cohorts.
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S4 4.3 Table 1 below provides data on attainment in literacy and numeracy in S4 at SCQF Level 4 and SCQF Level 5. Table 1 - % S4 Pupils Achieving Literacy & Numeracy Year % Achieved Level 4 Literacy % Achieved Level 4 Numeracy % Achieved Level 5 Literacy % Achieved Level 5 Numeracy Renfrewshire 2020 95% 92% 82% 66% Virtual Comparator 2020 93% 90% 76% 63% National 2020 92% 89% 74% 61% Renfrewshire 2021 96% 83% 82% 55% Virtual Comparator 2021 93% 88% 76% 59% National 2021 92% 87% 73% 56% Renfrewshire 2022 94% 91% 77% 67% Virtual Comparator 2022 93% 88% 76% 62% National 2022 92% 87% 74% 61% 4.4 The percentage of pupils achieving SCQF Level 4 and SCQF Level 5 in literacy and numeracy was above both the virtual comparator and the national figure in 2022. S5 (based on S4 roll) 4.5 Table 2 below provides data on attainment in literacy and numeracy in S5 at SCQF Level 4 and Level 5. Table 2 - % S5 Pupils Achieving Literacy and Numeracy Year % Achieved Level 4 Literacy % Achieved Level 4 Numeracy % Achieved Level 5 Literacy % Achieved Level 5 Numeracy Renfrewshire 2020 96% 94% 86% 76% Virtual Comparator 2020 94% 92% 82% 70% National 2020 93% 90% 80% 69% Renfrewshire 2021 96% 94% 88% 76% Virtual Comparator 2021 95% 93% 84% 72% National 2021 94% 91% 82% 70% Renfrewshire 2022 96% 92% 87% 74% Virtual Comparator 2022 95% 92% 83% 70% National 2022 93% 90% 81% 68%
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4.6 Renfrewshire remains ahead of the virtual comparator and national figures across SCQF Level 4 and SCQF Level 5 in S5. Attainment remains higher in literacy than in numeracy across both levels. This mirrors the trend within the virtual comparator and nationally. S6 (based on the S4 roll) 4.7 Table 3 below provides data on attainment in literacy and numeracy in S6 at SCQF Level 4 and Level 5. Table 3 -% S6 Pupils Achieving Literacy & Numeracy Year % Achieved Level 4 Literacy % Achieved Level 4 Numeracy % Achieved Level 5 Literacy % Achieved Level 5 Numeracy Renfrewshire 2020 95% 92% 85% 74% Virtual Comparator 2020 94% 91% 82% 69% National 2020 93% 90% 80% 68% Renfrewshire 2021 96% 94% 87% 78% Virtual Comparator 2021 94% 92% 83% 72% National 2021 93% 91% 81% 71% Renfrewshire 2022 96% 94% 89% 78% Virtual Comparator 2022 95% 93% 84% 74% National 2022 94% 91% 82% 72% 4.8 In S6, Renfrewshire remains above its virtual comparator and the national level across all measures. This is consistent with previous years. Attainment in both literacy and numeracy remains broadly in line with the previous year. 5. Improving attainment for all 5.1 Each qualification on the Scottish Certificate and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) is attributed a number of tariff points. The higher level of qualification, the more tariff points are attributed. Each pupil gains a number of points that represents the number and level of qualifications they have gained. This report uses complementary tariff points, which measures a fixed volume of learning. Complementary tariff points allow for fair comparison across Scotland, regardless of differences in curricular models. 5.2 Within this measure, Insight breaks the data down into three groups: the average complementary tariff points for the lowest attaining 20%, the middle attaining 60% and the highest attaining 20% and compares these with the virtual comparator and the national figure. S4 5.3 Graph 1 below shows the average complementary tariff points of S4 pupils by attainment cohort in the 2022 exam diet.
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5.4 In S4, the average complementary tariff is above both the virtual comparator and national figure for the lowest 20% and middle 60% attainment cohorts. The lowest 20% attainment cohort figure was 134 which is considerably above its comparators, which were 112 for the virtual comparator and 104 for the national figure. The average complementary tariff for the highest 20% attainment cohort remained marginally behind both comparators. 5.5 Table 4 shows the average complementary tariff of Renfrewshire S4 pupils over time. Table 4- Renfrewshire S4 Complementary Tariff by Attainment Cohort 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Highest 20% Attainment Cohort 420 419 424 422 420 Middle 60% Attainment Cohort 325 331 341 343 332 Lowest 20% Attainment Cohort 126 145 139 146 134 5.6 The 2022 average complementary tariff is lower than previous years in all attainment cohorts. This is likely to do with the changing method of assessment. Comparisons to the last exam diet year (2019) show that the middle 60% and highest 20% attainment cohorts have improved slightly whilst the lowest 20% cohort has decreased. S5 5.7 The graph below shows the average complementary tariff points of S5 pupils by attainment cohort in the 2022 exam diet. Graph 1- Renfrewshire S4 Complementary Tariff by Attainment Cohort 2022 134 332 420 112 325 425 104 323 426 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Lowest 20% Middle 60% Highest 20% Average complimentary tariff points Attainment Cohorts Improving Attainment for All Average Complementary Tariff Points Renfrewshire 2022 Virtual Comparator 2022 The National Establishment 2022
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5.8 Graph 2 demonstrates that Renfrewshire is above the virtual comparator and national figures in the lowest 20%, the middle 60% and the highest 20% attainment cohorts. In all attainment cohorts, Renfrewshire is further ahead of the national figure than the virtual comparator. 5.9 Table 5 shows the average complementary tariff of Renfrewshire S5 pupils since 2017. Table 5- Renfrewshire S5 Complementary Tariff by Attainment Cohort 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Highest 20% Attainment Cohort 961 954 981 991 975 Middle 60% Attainment Cohort 562 546 597 606 580 Lowest 20% Attainment Cohort 170 146 167 164 171 5.10 Attainment is lower than previous years in the middle 60% and highest 20% attainment cohorts. The lowest 20% attainment cohort is the highest it has been in the last 5 years. S6 5.11 Graph 3 shows the average complementary tariff points of S6 pupils by attainment cohort in the 2022 exam diet. Graph 2- Renfrewshire S5 Complementary Tariff by Attainment Cohort 2022 171 580 975 143 567 974 124 543 971 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Lowest 20% Middle 60% Highest 20% Average Complimentary Tariff Attainment Cohorts Improving Attainment for All Average Complementary Tariff Points Renfrewshire 2022 Virtual Comparator 2022 The National Establishment 2022
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5.12 In graph 3, we can see that the average complementary tariff for the lowest 20% attainment cohort is above both the virtual comparator and national, which were 154 and 135 respectively. Pupils in the middle 60% attainment cohort are also ahead of both comparators. The highest 20% attainment cohort is below both the virtual comparator and national figures. 5.13 Table 6 shows the average complementary tariff of Renfrewshire S6 pupils over 5 years. Table 6- Renfrewshire S6 Complementary Tariff by Attainment Cohort 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Highest 20% Attainment Cohort 1249 1258 1261 1321 1275 Middle 60% Attainment Cohort 657 653 660 718 700 Lowest 20% Attainment Cohort 152 175 152 173 167 5.14 The average complementary tariff is lower than in 2021 across all attainment cohorts. However, the highest 20% and middle 60% attainment cohorts have a higher average complementary tariff than all but one of the previous 4 years (2021). 6. Attainment versus deprivation 6.1 The attainment versus deprivation measure provides the average complementary tariff of pupils by SIMD decile. This allows us to identify the attainment gap in Renfrewshire and compare it to both our virtual comparator and national data. 6.2 The following charts show SIMD deciles 1 -10 (most deprived to least deprived) plotted along the horizontal axis with the average complementary tariff points plotted on the vertical axis. The size of the circles represents the Graph 3- Renfrewshire S6 Complementary Tariff by Attainment Cohort 2022 167 700 1275 154 684 1303 135 668 1309 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Lowest 20% Middle 60% Highest 20% Average Compliemntayr Tariff Attainment Cohorts Improving Attainment for All Average Complementary Tariff Points Renfrewshire 2022 Virtual Comparator 2022 The National Establishment 2022
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percentage of pupils who live in each decile. The trend line which runs through the circles represents the difference in attainment between pupils living in the most deprived and the least deprived areas. The steeper the angle, the more pronounced the disparity between the most and least deprived deciles. S4 6.3 Renfrewshire’s S4 average complementary tariff is above or in line with national figures in all deciles. The trendlines indicate that the size of the gap between most and least deprived pupils is larger nationally than in Renfrewshire due to lower attainment of pupils living in decile 1 and 2. Graph 4- S4 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs National) 2022 257 282 273 296 307 326 327 347 358 363 242 254 266 282 296 307 323 333 347 362 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Complimentary Tariff SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S4 Average Complimentary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire National Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (National)
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6.4 Renfrewshire’s S4 average complementary tariff is very closely aligned with the virtual comparator in 2022. Renfrewshire is behind the virtual comparator in SIMD deciles 7 and 10 but the differences are minimal. The trendlines in graph 5 indicate that Renfrewshire has slightly higher attainment in the lower deciles, but the gap narrows as the deciles increase. 6.5 Table 7 shows the S4 average complementary tariff of pupils living in SIMD 1- 3 (30% most deprived areas) and of pupils living in SIMD 4-10 (70% least deprived areas) over 5 years. It also shows the Tariff Point gap between these two figures. Table 7- Renfrewshire S4 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Groupings 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Pupils Living in 30% Most Deprived Areas 259 266 280 277 269 Pupils Living in 70% Least Deprived Areas 332 338 339 341 332 Tariff Point Gap 74 72 59 64 73 6.6 The average complementary tariff of pupils living in 30% most and 70% least deprived areas are not closely aligned with the figures of 2020 and 2021. There has been a decrease for both cohorts of pupils, with the size of the gap returning to levels experienced in 2018 and 2019. Graph 5- S4 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs Virtual Comparator) 2022 257 282 273 296 307 326 327 347 358 363 254 257 274 285 300 314 336 339 346 365 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Complimentary Tariff SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S4 Average Complimentary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire Virtual Comparator Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (Virtual Comparator)
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S5 6.7 The S5 average complementary tariff for Renfrewshire is above national in all SIMD deciles. Both Renfrewshire and National figures follow a similar trend. Graph 6- S5 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs National) 2022 Graph 7- S5 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs Virtual Comparator) 2022 437 459 514 527 601 640 653 693 741 815 412 435 479 514 558 579 617 659 708 764 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Complimentary Tariff SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S5 Average Complimentary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire National Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (National) 437 459 514 527 601 640 653 693 741 815 420 456 474 517 539 587 608 665 687 757 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Complimentary Tariff SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S5 Average Complimentary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire Virtual Comparator Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (Virtual Comparator)
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6.8 Graph 7 shows that Renfrewshire outperforms its Virtual Comparator at every decile. The trendlines suggest that performance at lower deciles is closer than at higher deciles. 6.9 Table 8 shows the S5 average complementary tariff of pupils living in SIMD 1- 3 (30% most deprived areas) and of pupils living in SIMD 4-10 (70% least deprived areas) over 5 years. It also shows the Tariff Point gap between these two figures. Table 8- Renfrewshire S5 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Groupings 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Pupils Living in 30% Most Deprived Areas 434 417 445 467 465 Pupils Living in 70% Least Deprived Areas 638 626 668 665 669 Tariff Point Gap 204 209 223 198 204 6.10 The average complementary tariff has decreased slightly for the 30% most deprived and marginally increased for the 70% least deprived groups in 2022. As a result, the size of the attainment gap has grown slightly but is smaller than 2018-2020. S6 6.11 The S6 average complementary tariff is higher than national in all SIMD deciles. Both Renfrewshire and National trendlines follow a similar pattern. Graph 8- S6 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs National) 2022 Graph 9- S6 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs Virtual Comparator) 2022 520 537 598 608 693 776 780 831 898 994 489 514 566 606 669 698 753 810 869 963 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Complimentary Tariff SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S6 Average Complimentary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire National Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (National)
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6.12 The S6 virtual comparator is very closely aligned with Renfrewshire’s figures as seen in the trend lines in graph 9. Renfrewshire is above the virtual comparator in all deciles except for deciles 2, 4, 7 and 8. Table 9 – Renfrewshire S6 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Groupings 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Pupils Living in 30% Most Deprived Areas 489 512 507 537 549 Pupils Living in 70% Least Deprived Areas 786 774 780 830 796 Tariff Point Gap 297 262 273 293 247 6.13 The average complementary tariff for pupils living in the 30% most deprived has increased since 2021 and are higher than all previous years. Performance in the 70% least deprive group has decreased against 2021 but remains higher than all over years in the last 5. As such, the tariff point gap has closed to the smallest it’s been in the last 5 sessions. 7. Breadth and depth 7.1 In addition to the key measures available in Insight, the service also looks at the percentage of the cohort who achieved any number of awards at various SCQF levels. These are known as ‘breadth and depth’ measures. We look at this data in conjunction with the Insight measures to allow us to gain a broader understanding of attainment across Renfrewshire and between schools. 7.2 The tables on the following pages show performance over time of some of the key breadth and depth measures and how we compare to the virtual comparator. SCQF 5 is National 4 or its equivalent, SCQF Level 5 is National 5 or its equivalent, SCQF Level 6 is Higher or its equivalent; and SCQF Level 7 is Advanced Higher or its equivalent. 520 537 598 608 693 776 780 831 898 994 520 564 591 614 692 738 798 838 886 982 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Complimentary Tariff SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S6 Average Complimentary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire Virtual Comparator Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (Virtual Comparator)
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S4 7.3 Table 10 includes data on the number of awards achieved for S4 pupils at SCQF Level 4 and Level 5 for Renfrewshire and the virtual comparator. Table 10- S4 Breadth & Depth S4 A-C 3 or more awards at SCQF level 4 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 4 or better 3 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC 2020 93% 91% 86% 83% 69% 68% 53% 50% 2021 93% 91% 84% 81% 69% 67% 50% 48% 2022 93% 90% 83% 80% 64% 62% 46% 44% 7.4 In S4, Renfrewshire remains above the virtual comparator at SCQF Level 4. The proportion of pupils achieving 3 or more and 5 or more are in line with previous years. At SCQF Level 5, Renfrewshire is ahead of the virtual comparator at 3 or more and 5 or more awards. These patterns are like previous years although there has been some variability in the figures due to different assessment methods. S5 7.5 Table 11 includes data on the number of awards achieved for S5 pupils at SCQF levels 4, 5 and 6 for Renfrewshire and the virtual comparator. Table 11- S5 Breadth & Depth (% of S4 Roll) S5 A-C 1 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 3 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 1 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better 3 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC 2020 89% 86% 75% 72% 59% 56% 65% 62% 44% 42% 22% 20% 2021 89% 88% 77% 76% 61% 61% 65% 64% 45% 44% 23% 21% 2022 90% 88% 75% 74% 59% 58% 61% 59% 38% 39% 20% 18% 7.6 At SCQF Level 5, Renfrewshire is above or in line with the virtual comparator at 1 or more, 3 or more and 5 or more awards. At SCQF Level 6, Renfrewshire outperforms its Virtual Comparator at 1+ and 5+ awards but is slightly lower than the figure at 3+. S6 7.7 Table 12 includes data on the number of awards achieved for S6 pupils at SCQF levels 5, 6 and 7 for Renfrewshire and the virtual comparator. Table 12- S6 Breadth & Depth (% of S4 Roll)
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S6 A-C 3 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 1 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better 3 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better 1 or more awards at SCQF level 7 or better Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC 2020 74% 71% 60% 57% 65% 62% 47% 45% 33% 32% 21% 22% 2021 77% 74% 63% 61% 69% 65% 54% 50% 39% 35% 24% 24% 2022 78% 77% 64% 64% 68% 65% 50% 49% 34% 33% 22% 22% 7.8 In S6, Renfrewshire has performed above the virtual comparator in most measures at SCQF Level 5 and Level 6. This is consistent with previous year’s trends. Attainment at SCQF Level 7 is in line with the virtual comparator, where in previous years Renfrewshire has been marginally behind. 8. Conclusion and next steps 8.1 The 2022 results need to be considered in the context of returning to a traditional exam diet after challenging circumstances and the never-before- used alternative certification model. Considered in this context, it would not be helpful to directly compare attainment to previous years. Better comparisons are to be made with 2019 performance which used an assessment programme that more closely resembles what was implemented in the 21/22 session. What is clear is that young people across Renfrewshire have performed exceptionally well, and they should be congratulated for all that they have achieved. 8.2 A further report on finalised leavers’ data and the attainment of our looked after children will be presented to this board in spring 2023 or as soon thereafter as the data becomes available. ___________________________________________________________________ Implications of this report 1. Financial Implications None. 2. HR and Organisational Development Implications None. 3. Community Plan/Council Plan Implications Children and Young People - High levels of attainment and achievement provide our children and young people with the best start in life 4. Legal Implications None. 5. Property/Assets Implications
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None. 6. Information Technology Implications None. 7. Equality and Human Rights Implications The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report because for example it is for noting only. If required following implementation, the actual impact of the recommendations and the mitigating actions will be reviewed and monitored, and the results of the assessment will be published on the Council’s website. 8. Health and Safety Implications None. 9. Procurement Implications None. 10. Risk Implications None. 11. 12. 13. Privacy Impact None. COSLA Policy Position None. Climate Risk None. List of Background Papers (a) none ______________________________________________________________ Children’s Services 04/10/2022 Author: James Bowness, Data and Evaluation Officer