Learning Estate Stratgey Roll Projections ECSPB
Renfrewshire Council · 31 October 2024
Back to Education and Children's Services Policy Board — 31 October 2024 and its agenda
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Page 1 of 17 To: Education and Children’s Services Policy Board On: 31 October 2024 _________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Children’s Services _________________________________________________________________ Heading: Learning Estate Strategy – Roll Projections __________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1 In order to support our comprehensive Learning Estate Strategy, which was approved by this Board in August, Renfrewshire Council has worked with data specialists Edge Analytics, to produce a full-estate pupil projection model that spans the next 10 years. This model offers an estimate of the number of pupils expected to attend each of Renfrewshire’s primary and secondary mainstream schools, taking into account a number of key factors which will be outlined in this report. The full overview of estate projection for the next 10 years can be found in Appendix 1. 1.2 The findings from these projections are outlined, along with an analysis of the implications and next steps for the schools where future capacity planning interventions will require to be considered. 1.3 This report also provides an explanation of the approach and key components that support the construction of the roll-projection model, as well as supporting detail to outline bespoke adjustments that have been made by Edge Analytics to align the model to a Council wide school estate approach. __________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1 The Board is asked to: 2.1.1. Note the contents of this report, including the final 10 year roll- projection estimates for each of Renfrewshire’s primary and secondary mainstream schools.
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Page 2 of 17 2.1.2. Note the approach being taken to assess all schools identified in this report as requiring future capacity planning to be undertaken, and the planned next steps for each. 2.1.3. Note that the recently approved Learning Estate Strategy approach will be used to provide a strategic framework to progress planning for any long term and permanent intervention considerations for the estate. 2.1.4. Note the information provided on the approach and key components used to create the roll-projection model, including the detail about the specific model created for Renfrewshire’s mainstream school estate by the Council’s commissioned partner, Edge Analytics. 3. Background 3.1. Renfrewshire Council have engaged Edge Analytics to produce a roll- projection model for the entire learning estate. Progressive prioritised phases of work have been ongoing since early 2023 which has consisted of the following outputs: • A roll-projection model was produced in early 2023 showing a 10-year projection for the following schools: o Park Mains High School o Trinity High School o Dargavel Primary School o Bishopton Primary School o St John Bosco Primary School • Further subsequent modelling was produced in late 2023 for this cohort of schools, extending the projection timeline to 15 years to support long term estate planning and decisions making to manage the longer term impact of the full build out of Dargavel village. • A roll projection model for 10 years for the entire learning estate has now been produced and is presented to this board to support overall strategic learning estate planning. 3.2. A series of reports have been presented to the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board across 2023 and 2024 to outline the implications of this work. 3.3. In Appendix 1 of this report, a table outlining the 10-year projections for all schools in Renfrewshire is provided for reference. It should be noted this does not include the Council’s two additional support needs schools, Riverbrae and Mary Russell, as admissions to these establishments are allocated on a needs basis, which cannot be projected through a roll-projection model for catchment demand.
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Page 3 of 17 4. Roll Projections Summary 4.1. Analysis of the trends forecasted for all schools in the estate can be seen in Appendix 2 of this report, covering the next 10 years. This analysis highlights that within the primary school estate by 2033/34: • 8 schools are projected to grow by more than 10%. • 22 schools are projected to decline by more than 10%. • 20 are projected to remain broadly static. 4.2. Within the secondary school estate by 2033/34: • 7 schools are projected to increase in capacity, 4 of which will be greater than 10%. • 4 schools are projected to decline. 4.3. National data shows birth rates are declining, and this impact emerges sooner within the primary school estate and is reflected in a falling projected school roll in almost half our schools within the next 10 years. It is expected the emerging fall in rolls within the primary sector will subsequently and increasingly feed through into the secondary estate, however the full impact of this will be beyond the 10-year projection timeframe currently modelled. This expectation of a subsequent impact within the secondary sector is consistent with the limited scope 15-year projection modelling completed earlier in the year to support primary and secondary estate planning emerging from Dargavel village. 5. Capacity Planning 5.1. As highlighted in Appendix 1, a projection is shown for all primary and secondary establishments. This shows the expected level of catchment demand for each school based on a series of datasets and calculations. For background reference, an overview of how the roll projections are developed is provided in Section 9 of this report. 5.2. A placing request is a request for a place at a school of which the person does not live within the catchment. An in-catchment request is a request for a place at a secondary school where the person lives within the school catchment but did not go to an associated feeder primary school. These requests can only be considered once catchment demand has been met. 5.3. Whilst this report is not intended to focus on the detail of capacity planning at individual school level, a brief overview of this process is provided below. For estate planning purposes, roll projections are assessed against what is known as the ‘planning capacity’ of each school. However, it should be noted the planning capacity is a figure of how many children could be accommodated from a space perspective within the school (based on national space metric standards), and will rarely match the actual number of children in a school, as classes require to follow policy and national directive on maximum allocations which are as follows: Stage Class Maximum
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Page 4 of 17 P1 25 P2 30 P3 30 P4 33 P5 33 P6 33 P7 33 Composite Class 25 S1 – S6 Practical class 20 S1 – S2 Classroom Activity 33 S3 – S6 Classroom Activity 30 5.4. A definition of the two types of capacity measurements that are used are provided below: 5.5. Planning Capacity – Planning Capacity is a physical, theoretical measure of the total number of pupils which could be accommodated in a school, based on the total number of teaching spaces, the size of those spaces and the class size maxima (The Scottish Government 2014). 5.6. Working Capacity - Working Capacity is a dynamic and more realistic measure of the total number of pupils which can be accommodated in a school in a particular school session. The Planning Capacity is adjusted based on the organisational needs of the school that session e.g. taking into account pupil roll, composite classes, staffing etc. to calculate Working Capacity (The Scottish Government 2014). 5.7. Local authorities are expected to be flexible and adapt accommodation to meet the required working capacity of any given academic year. Consequently, the purpose of the planning capacity is to support longer-term planning to assess the required scale of the learning estate and any planned future interventions that may be required. 5.8. It is important to emphasise the recently approved Learning Estate Strategy will provide the strategic framework to support, at a full-estate level, the review of any medium to long term capacity planning requirements and considerations that emerge from the detailed analysis and interpretation of the key outputs from the projection modelling. These could include for example, consideration of catchment reviews; extension to buildings (either permanent or temporary); or indeed new learning estate buildings.
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Page 5 of 17 5.9. Whilst the Learning Estate Strategy will support consideration of the estate from a wider strategic perspective, the most appropriate response to short- term capacity planning is at local level, as fluctuations in catchment demand are a routine factor in regular education planning. Each year, Children’s Services management, in collaboration with Head Teachers, undertake capacity and class planning. This is addressed through the Council’s admissions policy for aspects such as placing requests and associated primary transition to secondary education. However, it is also managed at a detailed level through timetable planning at secondary level, and class planning at primary. This process can involve using additional flexible space in schools that may not be ordinarily designated as classrooms in the capacity figure of the school, such as General Purpose (GP) spaces, IT suites, flexible learning rooms etc. In this process, the Council must duly consider its duty to provide education to children in their catchment where possible and should mitigate any impact on the effective delivery of the curriculum when considering using additional space. It is of course important to note the use of additional flexible school space is a short-term measure and would never be intended to address long-term capacity requirements. 5.10. When it is not possible to mitigate the catchment demand through additional available accommodation within existing school establishments, the Council would appropriately consider temporary accommodation to manage any short-to-medium-term capacity demand. 6. Findings from Projections – Primary Schools 6.1. Upon review of the projections for the primary school estate, it is expected the majority of the learning estate will be in a position to accommodate demand over the next ten years. Whilst projections indicate that some establishments are anticipated to come close to or even slightly over capacity, the arrangement to accommodate this will be considered using the process outlined in paragraph 5.8 and 5.9. 6.2. However, there are a small number of schools that projections indicate require priority capacity planning to be progressed, considered and future interventions implemented. An overview of these establishments is provided below. Dargavel & Bishopton Primary Schools - Long Term 6.3. Capacity pressures through new housing development in Dargavel Village have been regularly reported to this board and continue to be monitored carefully. 6.4. In the previous projections, last reported to this board in January 2024, a range of scenarios were presented. These showed that the upper demand scenario for primary-school places within Dargavel could reach a potential maximum of 1,500 in 2033/34. The 15-year projections shared at that time indicated 2033/34 would be the peak year in all scenarios, and demand would start to fall year-on-year after that point. The updated 10-year projections indicate that there could be 1,429 primary-school-aged children living in Dargavel by 2033/34. This suggests long-term demand will be within the range of previously published scenarios (albeit towards the upper end). As previously reported to Board, projection modelling of new large community growth areas similar to Dargavel Village, is complex and subject to a range of
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Page 6 of 17 uncertain influences, including the pace at which the remaining development is constructed, future birth rates and migration patterns and over the medium term, and parental choice to retain or take up available places at the neighbouring Bishopton Primary that is currently being used to temporarily support Dargavel Village. In this context it is important that the projected roll modelling is monitored against live data emerging from actual pupil registrations each year. This will provide ongoing intelligence as to the degree to which emerging demand is tracking, against existing projections each year. This annual monitoring regime will inform and support any requirement for early consideration of any further capacity interventions within Dargavel village to provide additional temporarily and or permanent increase in capacity. 6.5. In the current school year, 2024/25, the pupil projection model provided as part of this report estimated that 219 pupils could be expected to begin P1 across both Dargavel and Bishopton Primary Schools. Provisional school census information shows that only 165 P1s began school at Dargavel and Bishopton this year. This means that actual pupil figures are currently trailing the projected peak of 1,429 in year 2033/34 by 54 pupils (219 minus 165). As outlined above, this will continue to be reviewed annually to understand if lower actual demand develops as a continuing trend. 6.6. Given the current projection model suggests that just over 1,400 children should be expected in 2033/34, it is prudent to plan for accommodating this level of demand but importantly recognising that this represents only a temporary peak and should not in isolation drive decisions regarding long term permanent capacity planning. Although no similar guidance exists in Scotland, Education capacity planning guidance in England sets out clearly that based on historic evidence for large scale housing developments, similar to Dargavel, a peak period of education demand will emerge and local authorities should plan for meeting both long term demand levels, through permanent capacity provision and temporary peak demand period through use of flexible capacity for example effective use of shorter life modular accommodation – failing to approach capacity planning in this manner is likely to result on over-provision of long term capacity. 6.7. Previous 15-year modelling for Dargavel completed earlier this year, concurred with the evidence led guidance from England, and indicated that beyond the peak year of 2033/34, demand will begin to fall. Assuming a similarly shaped demand curve, this suggests longer-term demand will fall to around 1,260 pupils by 2038/39. The updated modelling indicates that in 2028/29 demand will equally be 1,260 which provides greater planning certainty that temporary demand is likely to emerge over a 9-year window between 2029/30 – 2038/39, with the maximum peak of circa 1,400 occurring in 2033/34. 6.8. The new primary school currently being developed in Dargavel will have a planning capacity of 800, whilst the existing Dargavel Primary School main building has proven to be able to operate at a level of 500, albeit there is currently an additional capacity of 198 in place through temporary modular classrooms. This provides total permanent long term planning capacity of 1,300 (800 + 500), sufficient to meet long term demand projections. Additionally, should the temporary modular classrooms currently in place be retained, this would provide total available capacity of circa 1,500, providing
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Page 7 of 17 sufficient flexibility in capacity to meet the projected 9-year temporary peak period in demand. 6.9. In broad terms, this latest set of long-term projections for Dargavel remain within previous planning scenarios and existing plans for permanent and flexible temporary capacity remains appropriate. However, it continues to be recognised that projection modelling of this nature is not exact and there remains the risk that actual demand levels and patterns that emerge may shift, both upwards or downwards. Actual demand will therefore continue to be closely monitored and tracked against projections and as previously reported to Board, this will provide the opportunity to consider early, the implications of demand levels trending beyond the upper scenarios. In such circumstances, several options exist for the longer-term capacity planning, all of which have been referenced in previous reports to this board. The following options were presented to the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board on 18th January 2024: • As outlined above, retention of the additional temporary modular classroom capacity at Dargavel Primary School. As temporary classrooms currently exist on site and the council already owns these, they could remain in place for a longer period, securing flexibility in capacity of up to 1,500. • Additional permanent capacity in the form of an extension at the current Dargavel Primary School with a 268-capacity extension having already been designed to provide confirmation that such an option was viable and deliverable on the existing extended site. • Utilise surplus capacity at Bishopton Primary School, which is expected to become available after 2027 when the new Dargavel Primary School opens. This would require catchment areas to be redrawn. • It was further noted in the report that additional flexible space in the new Dargavel primary school could be utilised, albeit this option would not be preferred. This new primary school has flexibility as a core design principle meaning that it can accommodate over and above its theoretical planning capacity. 6.10. A combination of any of the above options would also be possible. The ongoing monitoring arrangements and future long term projection updates will ensure if additional intervention is required the opportunity to engage with the school and wider communities to determine the most appropriate approach will be possible several years in advance. Dargavel & Bishopton Primary Schools - Short Term 6.11. Following construction completion of the new two class permanent block at Bishopton Primary School, the theoretical planning capacity for this school is 530. Dargavel Primary school has capacity for circa 700 children due to additional capacity existing with the temporary classrooms at the school. 6.12. For the short term i.e. August 2025 and August 2026, live data has been used to analyse the expected demand at both Dargavel Primary School and Bishopton Primary School over this short-term period. This is primarily due to the roll projection model, which is primarily focused on long term demand not
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Page 8 of 17 adjusting for the immediate short term impact of the Dargavel catchment children who will instead attend Bishopton Primary School through the ballot process, 6.13. This analysis is captured in the table below which shows the roll projection model, applies the previously agreed cap of 75 P1s to Dargavel, and reallocates the numbers above that to Bishopton. As noted, only 165 P1s started across Dargavel Primary and Bishopton Primary this year. This is a reduction from the projected 219 that was factored into the pupil projection model, contributing to the expected school roll each year as seen in Appendix 1. These live figures, along with the cap of 75 P1s at Dargavel Primary School are shown below: 6.14. This shows that there is a potential need for capacity planning to be undertaken at Bishopton Primary School in 2026 to meet demand before the new Dargavel Primary School opens in 2027. However, as noted, this reduction in P1 entrants compared to estimated projections, could have a positive impact on school capacity planning for the longer term, should figures continue to trend below estimated levels. 6.15. As can be seen from the above, with the impact of reallocating additional pupils above the 75 cap from Dargavel to Bishopton, the estimated roll of Bishopton for August 2026 is 583, above the planning capacity of 530. In response, the following options are currently being kept under review: • Capacity planning national guidance could be utilised to implement what is known as ‘team teaching’, which is the process of having more than one teacher in a classroom to accommodate more children than the prescribed maximums (25, 30, and 33) only if space allows to retain 1.7m2 per pupil as per approved guidelines. As Bishopton Primary has large traditional classrooms, it is already known that significant additional space exists in classrooms to allow this measure to be implemented, if required. • Implement additional temporary classrooms at either Bishopton Primary School, or on the vacant land in the Council’s ownership, directly joined on to Dargavel Primary School. 6.16. If demand does not keep up with Edge projections and live data continues to show a lower number of pupils entering at P1, no intervention may be required. 6.17. All options require to be carefully considered, and it is proposed that engagement is undertaken with the school communities of both Dargavel and Bishopton Primary Schools, in collaboration with Head Teachers, to help School SchoolYear Year_P1 Year_P2 Year_P3 Year_P4 Year_P5 Year_P6 Year_P7 Total Dargavel Primary School 2024-25 75 146 110 102 67 78 60 638 Dargavel Primary School 2025-26 75 78 149 114 106 70 81 673 Dargavel Primary School 2026-27 75 82 85 156 120 112 76 706 Bishopton Primary School 2024-25 90 48 50 46 59 45 58 396 Bishopton Primary School 2025-26 136 91 48 50 46 59 45 475 Bishopton Primary School 2026-27 149 136 91 49 51 47 60 583
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Page 9 of 17 determine the appropriate course of action. The priority, as always when capacity planning in the school estate, is to protect the education experience and curriculum delivery. St John Ogilvie Primary School 6.18. An increase in demand for St John Ogilvie Primary School in Paisley can be seen in the projections for this school. An overview of projections is provided below: 6.19. As projections show the school roll at St John Ogilvie could increase above the planning capacity figure in the next academic year, immediate planning is being undertaken to assess current school operation and schedule of accommodation to determine if any additional teaching space can be created in the school, to accommodate this demand in the short-term. 6.20. It is also prudent to assess the level of placing requests submitted to this school to determine if they are having an ongoing impact on the ability to accommodate future catchment demand. Should this be the case, as with other schools in a similar position, placing requests can be reviewed in line with the council’s admissions policy to ensure catchment space is prioritised. An initial review of placing requests shows in the last 7 years (full primary cycle) there have been 110 placing requests granted to St John Ogilvie. This is a significant number of placing requests for a school of this size and can be managed as part of this review. If there are still concerns about the ability to meet the catchment demand after the above has been considered, then alternative options will be assessed as part of the wider Learning Estate strategy. 7. Findings from Projections – Secondary Schools 7.1. The secondary school estate projections provided in Appendix 1 shows there are four schools where capacity will require to be managed over the next ten years. An overview of these establishments is provided below: Gryffe High School 7.2. Demand for Gryffe High School has been high for several years. This is managed on an ongoing basis by the Council’s admissions policy, to ensure the overall school capacity is maintained. 7.3. Projections show demand for Gryffe could slightly exceed the formal planning capacity of the school in the next few years, although this is then forecast to fall back well below capacity. The Council’s admissions policy shall be implemented in these instances to manage any minor expected peak over and above the school capacity. This can involve limiting placing requests where catchment demand is required, whilst an assessment will also be Primary School Capacity (published 2024) 2024-25 (F) 2025-26 (F) 2026-27 (F) 2027-28 (F) 2028-29 (F) 2029-30 (F) 2030-31 (F) 2031-32 (F) 2032-33 (F) 2033-34 (F) St John Ogilvie Primary School 272 267 291 310 320 321 329 334 334 340 338
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Page 10 of 17 undertaken to interrogate timetable demand and any additional flexible use of space that could be utilised to meet any short-term demand. Beyond any short-term capacity planning, the recently-approved learning estate strategy will guide any permanent intervention in future years. An overview of projections for Gryffe is provided below: Park Mains High School 7.4. Work is under way to extend Park Mains High School to accommodate up to 2,000 pupils. Projections show the school roll is expected to steadily increase over the next ten years. An overview of projections for Park Mains is provided below: 7.5. Park Mains currently has a modern temporary classroom block in operation from this academic year providing 5 classrooms, increasing the capacity of the school to 1,756, from the previous formal planning capacity of 1,591. This ensures any short-term demand can be accommodated. The demand over the next three years (until the school is extended) will be monitored, as it is possible that live data will be less than the forecast. For context, in this current academic year, the school is trailing the estimated projections by 13, and should that trend continue, the number of pupils attending the school would be less than projected, reducing the impact. 7.6. The projections for Park Mains show the school roll exceeding 2,000 in years 2032/33, and 2033/34. As previously reported to Board, the number of placing request and in-catchment requests to Park Mains are included in the projection model and are a contributing factor in the school roll temporarily exceeding capacity in the future. Therefore, further mitigation can be provided by managing and reducing the number of placing requests to the school through the admissions policy. 7.7. To provide an understanding of how much this could expect to reduce the overall school roll, the following levels currently exist across Park Mains, covering a 6-year period: Category Secondary School Capacity (published 2024) 2024-25 (F) 2025-26 (F) 2026-27 (F) 2027-28 (F) 2028-29 (F) 2029-30 (F) 2030-31 (F) 2031-32 (F) 2032-33 (F) 2033-34 (F) Gryffe High School 960 967 962 976 988 956 956 916 900 914 897 Secondary School Capacity 2024-25 (F) 2025-26 (F) 2026-27 (F) 2027-28 (F) 2028-29 (F) 2029-30 (F) 2030-31 (F) 2031-32 (F) 2032-33 (F) 2033-34 (F) Park Mains High Schoo 1756 (2000 from 2027 onwards) 1530 1578 1626 1669 1730 1805 1890 1985 2080 2169 2,000 Capacity
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Page 11 of 17 Placing Requests granted over the last 6 years (current S1-S6) 86 In-catchment requests currently present in the school from denominational primary schools (current S1-S6) 119 Total combined 205 7.8. The table above shows the overall school roll of Park Mains can be reduced by applying the Council’s admissions policy and implementing a phased reduction of requests. It is important to note any pupil currently in the school has a right to remain, and the admissions policy only applies to the point of entry at a school. 7.9. This latest set of data and analysis shows Park Mains is expected to accommodate long-term demand. Previously officers reported to Board that demand for Park Mains High School was expected to drop after a decade (within the 15-year projection model). This reflects the impact of school roll decline in other communities within the catchment and reinforces that pupil numbers from Dargavel Village in isolation do not determine the projected roll. Whilst the growth of the Dargavel development will have a significant impact on the school roll of Park Mains, analysis shows the roll for every other feeder primary school for Park Mains is set to decline, with the exception of Langbank which may experience very limited growth. Only when this is combined with the algorithm used in the roll projections model to determine housing growth and migration movement in and out of the catchment, can the estimated school roll be assessed. 7.10. As was noted in response to the statutory consultation for a new primary school in Dargavel, the need to consider secondary provision for this area was a priority raised by the community. It is important to emphasise similar to primary provision, continual close monitoring of both actual demand and future projection updates for Park Mains will be undertaken , and should there be any indication the capacity will come under pressure, the wider learning estate will be considered to develop options for the most appropriate solution to secondary provision in this area of Renfrewshire. 7.11. St Andrew’s Academy 7.12. Whilst St Andrew’s Academy was built with a planning capacity of 1,250, it has operated efficiently above this level for several years. This has been achieved by effectively managing timetable demand, implementing flexible use of classroom space, and applying the Council’s admissions policy. 7.13. Projections show the demand for St Andrew’s is expected to broadly remain consistent for the next 5 to 6 years. A small increase can be expected as housing development across the Paisley area continues, however the wider aspect of migration in and out of the area as well as full analysis of all feeder primaries show some catchment populations declining whilst others increase, giving a balanced net effect on the school roll. An overview of projections for St Andrew’s Academy is provided below:
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Page 12 of 17 7.14. The council’s admissions policy can also be applied to mitigate any impact on the ability for St Andrew’s Academy to operate efficiently. Whilst placing requests are managed at levels that can be accommodated currently, the school currently has a significant level of in-catchment request. 7.15. A table has been provided for St Andrew’s below, showing current levels of requests in this school: Category Placing Requests granted over the last 6 years (current S1-S6) 20 In-catchment requests currently present in the school from non-denominational primary schools (current S1-S6) 216 Total combined 236 7.16. This analysis shows there is an ability through the council’s admissions policy to reduce the school roll of St Andrew’s Academy, should any capacity pressure be applied through demand. Analysis also shows that non- denominational secondary schools in Paisley have sufficient capacity to accommodate any impact of realigning pupils to catchment schools through the admissions policy. Trinity High School 7.17. Trinity High School projections also show planning is required to mitigate the projected school roll within the next two years and beyond. An overview of projections for Trinity High School is provided below: 7.18. As is established practice and process across the school estate, a thorough assessment of available space in the school will be undertaken to determine where timetable flexibility can be used to manage short-term capacity. 7.19. It is noted by officers that the mitigations outlined at 7.7 to help manage and reduce pupil roll at Park Mains High School is likely to increase demand for Trinity High School further. This will be managed as part of the medium-term Learning Estate Strategy and detailed planning on this continues. In addition, as highlighted previously in the report, placing requests and in-catchment requests can be managed through the admissions policy and this will also be Secondary School Capacity 2024-25 (F) 2025-26 (F) 2026-27 (F) 2027-28 (F) 2028-29 (F) 2029-30 (F) 2030-31 (F) 2031-32 (F) 2032-33 (F) 2033-34 (F) St Andrew's Academy 1250 1491 1488 1487 1489 1499 1499 1508 1532 1518 1531 Secondary School Capacity 2024-25 (F) 2025-26 (F) 2026-27 (F) 2027-28 (F) 2028-29 (F) 2029-30 (F) 2030-31 (F) 2031-32 (F) 2032-33 (F) 2033-34 (F) Trinity High School 1032 994 1026 1052 1070 1097 1110 1121 1154 1187 1204
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Page 13 of 17 applied to Trinity High School to manage and reduce pupil roll in future. The table below shows the current level of request in the school: Category Placing Requests granted over the last 6 years (current S1-S6) 105 In-catchment requests currently present in the school from non-denominational primary schools (current S1-S6) 68 Total combined 173 7.20. The above shows there is an ability to reduce capacity pressure on this school by applying the admissions policy. St Benedict’s High School 7.21. Figures in Appendix 1 show that St Benedict’s could come close to, or slightly exceed its planning capacity for a short period of time. An overview of projections for St Benedict’s is provided below: 7.22. These figures will be monitored to determine if the estimates are produced as projected where short term local measures can be taken through for example additional use of space or utilising the Council’s admissions policy to manage numbers. 8. Estate Summary 8.1. The analysis provided above confirms options exist for mitigating increasing school capacities at both full-estate level and local school level, and a fluctuating school roll should be seen as a normal process with measures that can be applied on a year-to-year basis. 8.2. There is a recurring theme in secondary school provision where a significant number of in-catchment, and placing requests exist within the school estate. Parents and carers have a right to request what school their child attends, and it is for the Council’s admissions policy, which follows legislation, to apply control to this. Should the council be required to manage requests, this would have a positive impact on realigning pupils to their intended catchment schools. 8.3. The agreed Learning Estate Strategy is pivotal to the development of the school estate and to medium and long-term capacity planning across Secondary School Capacity 2024-25 (F) 2025-26 (F) 2026-27 (F) 2027-28 (F) 2028-29 (F) 2029-30 (F) 2030-31 (F) 2031-32 (F) 2032-33 (F) 2033-34 (F) St Benedict's High School 850 780 824 837 853 858 853 831 820 794 786
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Page 14 of 17 Renfrewshire. The strategy will enable the council to consider all Renfrewshire primary and secondary schools in a holistic manner, the relationship and interaction between schools and the optimum estate design to deliver the required interventions. 9. Roll Projection Methodology 9.1. The purpose of conducting a pupil-projection analysis is to determine an approximation of the future expected number of pupils that require primary or secondary education in Renfrewshire. A projection methodology is built on a foundation of historical data for births, NHS data, primary and secondary school census information, and housing land audit which outlines known development in the area. 9.2. Renfrewshire Council has partnered with Edge Analytics to produce a bespoke model based on their tried-and-tested methodology. An overview of how this model is created including the data sets used, and processes for determining projections is outlined in Appendix 3 of this paper. 9.3. An important aspect of roll projection models is they are merely an informed estimate There are many significant variables, including the fundamental aspect that the expected number of births in an exact geographical area can only be estimated based on historical trends, and national datasets. Pupil projections produced through these models are thus best used for high-level future planning and estate management to determine any intervention that may be required in years to come. 9.4. With the above information, it is therefore essential that pupil projections are used as a mechanism to identify where mitigations should be considered in advance of any potential capacity issues. Pupil projection should be assessed against the school’s planning capacity. As noted in this report, a planning capacity is a notional figure of an approximate number of pupils that can be accommodated, but this figure can be flexible when it comes to determining the true working capacity. Pupil Product Ratio – New House Building 9.5. The pupil product ratio (PPR) is a figure that is derived from assessing historical trends that estimates the number of children typically generated by a new housing development. These figures are used to determine the pupils generated when a new house is built, and used to support proposed levels of developer contributions that are sought through the planning application process. Renfrewshire has used a PPR rate for a number of decades, and this was revised in 2018 following a benchmarking exercise with other local authorities. It is important to note that the PPR methodology is only used to determine the pupils produced for new houses built in any particular year. The PPR rate does not apply to existing housing that has been built in any previous year, to the year in question. This therefore means that for a roll projection model, the PPR rate is only one element that is considered. 9.6. As noted, the PPR is also used to assist with the production of pupil forecasts. When considering PPR for roll projections, the PPR is applied to any new build house to determine the number of pupils that it expects to generate when a family move into that home. These pupils are then applied to the appropriate school and year group using historical data as part of the
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Page 15 of 17 projection model. This PPR rate is only ever applied once – when the house is built, it is ongoing migration factors that need to be considered to understand the number of pupils moving into a home that already exists. 9.7. From a Renfrewshire wide perspective, there is an average PPR rate of 0.27 for primary and 0.13 for secondary which equates to the number of pupils generated per new house built. The impact of this is applied to relevant catchment schools with a series of other conditions such as historical school transitions, as well as migration rates in and out of the local area. It is critical to note that when planning for future school capacities, the PPR rate is only one factor used within the methodology to determine the impact on school rolls. There are many factors that must be considered, which is why a roll projection methodology is the only appropriate way to assess this. The following considerations must be given when considering a PPR rate: • The number of pupils expected to be generated do not all arrive at once. (e.g. a housing development of 200 houses multiplied by the PPR of 0.27 equates to 200 X 0.27 = 54 pupils). They are also assigned across all the class stages at the school and not just at entry level. • The Housing Land Audit outlines an indicative programme of housebuilding and presents a 7-year forecast. Using the scenario above, the 54 pupils estimated as generated by a development must then be assigned against the proposed programme of housebuilding, and the years this equates to. Assumptions are applied to spread the potential pupils generated across the pace of housebuilding for that specific development. • When allocating potential pupils generated (e.g. 54) to a school, historic rates are used to allocate the appropriate percentage to non- denominational, and denominational catchment schools. • The PPR is only one aspect of roll projections, and it must be assessed in collaboration with migration factors for people moving both in and out of a catchment area, as well as historic school trends, current school census information, transitions statistics and placing request data. This is where migration factors play a crucial role in estimating school rolls, particularly in large new build developments, as the impact of migration (families moving in or out of homes that have already been built previously) is considered in the roll projection model but cannot be determined by assessing a PPR rate in isolation. Live Data Monitoring 9.8. When assessing ongoing estimations for pupil projections, it is fundamental to estate capacity management to be monitoring live data. As noted, roll projections simply produce an estimate of the number of pupils expected to be at each school in years to come, and will not result in the exact number of pupils.
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Page 16 of 17 9.9. Typically, roll projections would be updated each year. As an interim measure to monitor what is expected to happen in the immediate future (e.g. the next academic year), there is an opportunity to assess live data in the form of: • P1 registrations for the upcoming academic year. • P7 transfer to secondary schools. • In-catchment and placing request applications to attend an alternative school. 9.10. These figures build an accurate picture of how many pupils are going to be attending a school and can be matched against the estimated pupil projections. By comparing the live data (registrations and placing requests) with projections, officers can quickly determine if actual demand is trailing or exceeding what was projected. This in turn informs any mitigations applied at a local level, through the usual capacity planning process or by applying the admissions policy. ______________________________________________________________ Implications of this report 1. Financial Any mitigations that are required to accommodate pupils in the short term at local level, or by administering the Council’s admissions policy will bring no, or minimal financial impact. Any financial impact of opening a new classroom to accommodate catchment pupils will require teaching resource costs, and classroom provisions. This is a standard process that is managed in line with department budgets. For any further measures that require to be implemented, these will be progressed in line with the recently approved Learning Estate Strategy and its associated financial model. 2. HR and Organisational Development None. 3. Community/Council Planning Reshaping our place, our economy and our future - The learning estate shall be appropriately scaled and equipped to meet curriculum expectations and deliver an appropriate learning and teaching experience for all. 4. Legal None. 5. Property/Assets Roll projections will allow the learning estate to be scaled appropriately, with consideration for any future capital investment required to meet the demand needs. Similarly, roll projections will identify any establishments that are showing as having significant surplus capacity that can be considered by the wider Learning Estate Strategy.
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Page 17 of 17 6. Information Technology None. 7. Equality and Human Rights The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report. If required following implementation, the actual impact of the recommendations and the mitigating actions will be reviewed and monitored, and the results of the assessment will be published on the Council’s website. 8. Health and Safety None. 9. Procurement Any procurement work required to address future capacity needs will be conducted in collaboration with the Council’s Procurement team and adhere to appropriate regulations. 10. Risk The production and monitoring of roll projections is a mechanism of risk management to plan the future scale of the learning estate and any subsequent mitigations that are required to be implemented. 11. Privacy Impact None. 12. Climate Risk None. 13. Children’s Rights This report does not cover a new policy, function, or strategy nor a substantive change to an existing policy, function or strategy which will have an impact on children’s rights. When considering any future school provision, the impact this will have on children is a key consideration, and any work will be based around the direct needs of children to allow their education experience to thrive. Whilst children have a right to choose where they wish to attend school in collaboration with their parents, the council’s admissions policy applies to ensure that schools that are oversubscribed can be managed. 14. Cosla Policy Position None. Children’s Services JL/JO 16/10/2024 Author: Jack Lochans – jacklochans@renfrewshire.gov.uk
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Page 1 of 6 Appendix 1 – Full Estate 10 Year Roll Projections Primary School Capacity 2024-25 (F) 2025-26 (F) 2026-27 (F) 2027-28 (F) 2028-29 (F) 2029-30 (F) 2030-31 (F) 2031-32 (F) 2032-33 (F) 2033-34 (F) Arkleston Primary School 352 295 315 322 334 346 336 330 326 323 323 Auchenlodment Primary School 302 194 194 208 202 196 186 184 176 177 172 Bargarran Primary School 272 222 237 233 224 220 209 196 190 169 167 Barsail Primary School 401 299 305 290 274 259 235 222 215 206 198 Bishopton Primary School 519 350 335 342 333 334 331 330 333 341 342 Brediland Primary School 377 186 171 170 164 156 159 157 152 151 147 Bridge of Weir Primary School 489 439 464 450 444 454 448 451 449 430 426 Bushes Primary School 489 298 290 277 263 240 230 216 210 206 199 Cochrane Castle Primary 242 111 95 90 92 83 87 89 88 89 90 Dargavel Primary School 698 736 866 1000 1147 1261 1354 1406 1414 1423 1429 East Fulton Primary School 377 231 235 252 260 267 272 276 276 282 278 Fordbank Primary School 327 263 251 248 246 237 234 226 220 224 219 Gallowhill Primary School 352 214 207 215 212 213 207 196 189 182 175 Glencoats Primary School 352 187 182 185 178 176 163 157 155 156 159 Heriot Primary School 434 218 205 201 205 214 204 203 201 202 201 Houston Primary School 569 526 537 528 536 549 546 560 564 550 559 Howwood Primary School 184 106 105 108 103 101 87 88 92 90 87 Inchinnan Primary School 217 116 111 100 103 113 109 109 109 110 113 Kilbarchan Primary School 352 202 193 192 177 171 173 169 161 160 157 Kirklandneuk Primary School 619 450 445 447 448 428 423 420 420 422 430 Langbank Primary School 100 81 79 85 93 93 97 98 101 103 100 Langcraigs Primary School 434 285 273 261 262 256 254 251 247 253 259 Lochfield Primary School 459 258 259 261 260 264 263 259 250 247 241 Lochwinnoch Primary School 327 215 218 202 205 215 232 231 213 205 195
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Page 2 of 6 Primary School Capacity 2024-25 (F) 2025-26 (F) 2026-27 (F) 2027-28 (F) 2028-29 (F) 2029-30 (F) 2030-31 (F) 2031-32 (F) 2032-33 (F) 2033-34 (F) Mossvale Primary School 272 202 196 198 201 212 212 206 209 215 214 Newmains Primary School 459 411 406 396 381 357 347 342 334 326 316 Our Lady of Peace Primary School 352 230 227 219 217 215 214 216 215 219 216 Ralston Primary School 459 387 401 409 413 419 431 431 427 420 415 Rashielea Primary School 434 161 152 148 152 155 150 146 145 143 142 St Anne's Primary School 242 139 132 125 127 123 118 115 113 110 109 St Anthony's Primary School 302 255 245 236 242 235 230 226 222 225 221 St Catherine's Primary School 272 229 238 254 264 244 242 236 230 224 218 St Charles' Primary School 459 403 388 398 392 388 385 383 371 370 360 St David's Primary School 184 90 84 83 88 88 86 89 88 90 89 St Fergus' Primary School 175 170 176 178 163 156 149 140 138 139 141 St Fillan's Primary School 184 88 89 79 83 91 94 93 93 91 92 St James' Primary School (Paisley) 217 160 145 143 146 147 151 144 147 151 150 St James' Primary School (Renfrew) 676 573 583 593 610 601 589 573 569 568 571 St John Bosco Primary School 272 252 264 264 260 252 254 258 256 249 248 St John Ogilvie Primary School 272 267 291 310 320 321 329 334 334 340 338 St Margaret's Primary School 272 164 154 144 143 138 141 136 133 135 136 St Mary's Primary School 327 301 313 314 309 321 329 332 329 335 336 St Paul's Primary School 217 165 153 143 135 129 132 130 128 128 126 St Peter's Primary School 352 225 225 226 217 219 205 202 199 201 202 Thorn Primary School 242 139 126 119 122 121 119 114 111 113 117 Todholm Primary School 434 379 364 373 361 349 351 348 341 341 329 Wallace Primary School 434 340 339 352 348 354 370 369 373 377 379 West Primary School 761 430 429 437 443 449 461 468 466 473 477
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Page 3 of 6 Primary School Capacity 2024-25 (F) 2025-26 (F) 2026-27 (F) 2027-28 (F) 2028-29 (F) 2029-30 (F) 2030-31 (F) 2031-32 (F) 2032-33 (F) 2033-34 (F) Williamsburgh Primary School 594 349 363 389 396 407 411 417 418 429 428 Woodlands Primary School 459 221 202 195 192 194 177 181 181 182 179 Secondary School Capacity 2024-25 (F) 2025-26 (F) 2026-27 (F) 2027-28 (F) 2028-29 (F) 2029-30 (F) 2030-31 (F) 2031-32 (F) 2032-33 (F) 2033-34 (F) Castlehead High School 1230 753 757 748 760 771 778 787 805 809 808 Gleniffer High School 1425 1129 1126 1121 1115 1129 1111 1085 1083 1057 1045 Gryffe High School 960 967 962 976 988 956 956 916 900 914 897 Johnstone High School 1380 869 865 877 907 903 908 895 893 860 849 Linwood High School 576 445 452 457 450 444 450 430 420 408 411 Paisley Grammar School 1329 1094 1092 1086 1094 1100 1101 1121 1153 1164 1190 Park Mains High School 1756 (2000 from 2027 onwards) 1530 1578 1626 1669 1730 1805 1890 1985 2080 2169 Renfrew High School 1267 847 854 872 879 884 894 899 927 949 962 St Andrew's Academy 1250 1491 1488 1487 1489 1499 1499 1508 1532 1518 1531 St Benedict's High School 850 780 824 837 853 858 853 831 820 794 786 Trinity High School 1032 994 1026 1052 1070 1097 1110 1121 1154 1187 1204
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Page 4 of 6 Appendix 2 – Trends in growth across the ten year projection period, as at 2033/34 2a – Primary Schools
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Page 5 of 6 Trends in growth across the ten year projection period, as at 2033/34 2b – Secondary Schools
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Page 6 of 6
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Renfrewshire Council EDGE-UCATE MAINSTREAM – STAKEHOLDER NOTE 2023–24 Academic Year Nexus | Discovery Way | University of Leeds | Leeds | LS2 3AA 0113 819 5087 | www.edgeanalytics.co.uk Appendix 3 – Edge Analytics Stakeholder Note, Overview of Methodology
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edge-ucate Mainstream Stakeholder Note 1 2023–24 Academic Year Introduction 1.1 Edge Analytics has produced pupil forecasts for schools in Renfrewshire using its edge-ucate Mainstream pupil projection model. This note provides an overview of the edge-ucate Mainstream model, a summary of its key data inputs and a description of the forecasting methodology. Model Overview 1.2 edge-ucate Mainstream is a modelling framework for mainstream pupil forecasting, developed by Edge Analytics to support local authorities in their school place planning activities. 1.3 Edge Analytics has calibrated its edge-ucate Mainstream model for Renfrewshire using the latest available evidence on resident pre-school age children, local schools and their pupils1, together with assumptions on the potential impacts of migration and planned local housing developments on future pupil numbers. 1.4 The model has been configured with a 2023–24 base year, providing a 10-year forecast for both primary and secondary year groups under three scenarios: • The BASE scenario assumes that there will be no change in the size of pre-school, primary or secondary cohorts over time. • The HOUSING scenario includes the impacts of planned housing on cohort size, through the application of primary and secondary pupil yield factors to a trajectory of planned housing growth. • The MIGRATION+HOUSING scenario includes the impacts of migration and planned housing, combining the housing and pupil yield assumptions of the HOUSING scenario with assumptions on the impact of pre-school, primary and secondary migration on cohort size. Data Inputs 1.5 The edge-ucate Mainstream model for Renfrewshire includes the following key data inputs: • Details of each mainstream school in Renfrewshire, including recent and planned school changes. In total, there are 61 open schools in Renfrewshire: 50 primaries (16 denominational and 34 non-denominational) and 11 secondaries (3 denominational and 8 non-denominational). • A list of primary and secondary non-denominational catchment areas in Renfrewshire. These are the smallest geographical unit used by the edge-ucate Mainstream model. 1 edge-ucate Mainstream is configured to provide forecasts for mainstream schools located in Renfrewshire. Pupils attending independent/special schools, alternative provision or schools located outside Renfrewshire are not included.
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edge-ucate Mainstream Stakeholder Note 2 2023–24 Academic Year • A 3-year history of September school census data, providing a count of pupils by primary non-denominational catchment area, year group (P1–S6) and school attended (consistent with the schools list) in 2021–22, 2022–23 and 2023–24. • Pre-school population data for 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24, providing a count of resident children aged 0+ to 5+ (by single year of age) by primary non-denominational catchment area, sourced from National Records of Scotland mid-year population estimates and Health Visitor data. • Estimated births for each primary non-denominational catchment area, derived using historical Health Visitor data. • A trajectory of planned housing development by primary non-denominational catchment area, with an accompanying primary pupil yield factor2 of 0.27 and a secondary pupil yield factor of 0.13. Forecast Methodology 1.6 The edge-ucate Mainstream forecasting methodology for Renfrewshire comprises a series of stages, which are summarised in Figure 1 and described below. Figure 1: The edge-ucate Mainstream forecasting methodology for mainstream schools in Renfrewshire 2 The pupil yield factors represent the number of additional resident pupils expected to require a place in a mainstream school in Renfrewshire as a result of each new home. School migration factors Planned housing growth and yield factors Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Yield from new housing Intake rates, transition rates and inflow adjustments School migration factors Yield from new housing Primary Intake Secondary Intake Primary 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Stay-OnCohort Progression Pool of Resident Pre-School Children Pre-school migration factors Intake rates, transition rates and inflow adjustments Pre-school population data and estimated births Secondary 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cohort Progression School census data
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edge-ucate Mainstream Stakeholder Note 3 2023–24 Academic Year Stage 1: Pool of Resident Pre-School Children 1.7 In Stage 1, a pool of resident pre-school children aged 5+ (P1 age) is identified for each primary non- denominational catchment area in Renfrewshire using the pre-school population data and estimated births: • In the BASE and HOUSING scenarios, all children remain resident in the same primary non-denominational catchment area until age 5+. • In the MIGRATION+HOUSING scenario, migration factors are applied to the resident pre-school population in each primary non-denominational catchment area, adjusting the size of each cohort in consecutive forecast years. The migration factors are based on the trends in the 3-year history of pre-school population data. Stage 2: Primary Intake 1.8 In Stage 2, an intake rate for each primary non-denominational catchment area identifies the proportion of resident children aged 5+ (from Stage 1) that enters mainstream primary education (P1) in Renfrewshire. Transition rates identify the proportion of these children that enter specific primary schools, allocating pupils from each primary non-denominational catchment area to each primary denominational school and primary non-denominational school, in line with existing catchment area- to-school pupil flows. Inflow adjustments identify any additional P1 pupils that enter each primary denominational school and primary non-denominational school from outside the council area. These assumptions are based on trends in the 3-year history of pre-school population data and school census data. Stage 3: Primary Cohort Progression 1.9 In Stage 3, P1 pupils (identified in Stage 2) transfer to successive primary year groups (P2–P7), accounting for migration and/or new housing: • In the BASE scenario, all pupils remain in the same primary school until P7. • In the HOUSING and MIGRATION+HOUSING scenarios, primary pupil yield factors are applied to the number of planned homes in each primary non-denominational catchment area. The resulting yield is allocated to mainstream primary schools (denominational and non-denominational) in Renfrewshire in line with existing catchment area-to-school pupil flows. • In the MIGRATION+HOUSING scenario, migration factors are additionally applied to the number of pupils in each primary school (denominational and non-denominational), adjusting (up or down) the size of each cohort in consecutive forecast years, based on trends in the school census data. Stage 4: Secondary Intake 1.10 In Stage 4, an intake rate for each primary non-denominational catchment area identifies the proportion of resident P7 pupils (from Stage 3) that enters mainstream secondary education (S1) in
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edge-ucate Mainstream Stakeholder Note 4 2023–24 Academic Year Renfrewshire. Transition rates identify the proportion of these pupils that enter specific secondary schools, allocating pupils from each primary non-denominational catchment area to each secondary denominational school and secondary non-denominational school, in line with existing catchment area-to-school pupil flows. Adjustments are made for pupils resident outside the council area. These assumptions are based on trends in the 3-year history of school census data. Stage 5: Secondary Cohort Progression 1.11 In Stage 5, S1 pupils (identified in Stage 4) transfer to successive secondary year groups (S2–S6) accounting for migration and/or new housing. The Stage 3 methodology is used. 1.12 From S4 onwards, pupils are transferred to successive secondary year groups (S5 and S6) using stay- on rates, which adjust the size of each cohort (at each secondary school) in consecutive forecast years. The stay-on rates are based on secondary school-level trends in the 3-year history of school census data.
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Nexus | Discovery Way | University of Leeds | Leeds | LS2 3AA www.edgeanalytics.co.uk Part of the Local Data Company Ltd, a Green Street Company