National Qualifications Results 2024 ECSPB
Renfrewshire Council · 31 October 2024
Back to Education and Children's Services Policy Board — 31 October 2024 and its agenda
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___________________________________________________________________ To: Education and Children’s Services Policy Board On: 31 October 2024 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Children’s Services Heading: National Qualifications Results 2024 ___________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1 This report summarises attainment in the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) National Qualifications in 2024, based on the key measures contained within the Insight benchmarking tool. 1.2 The 2024 exam diet saw a return to the traditional model of assessment. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, alternative methods of assessment were put in place for the 2020 and 2021 exam diet. The 2022 and 2023 diets were also seen as a transitional point back to a traditional model of assessment. As such, we should be cautious in making direct comparisons between years that had different assessment approaches. 1.3 Skills Development Scotland are currently tracking school leavers’ destinations. Insight is normally updated in spring and a further report providing data on our school leavers’ attainment will be submitted to the Education and Children Service’s Policy Board when this data becomes available. This report will provide data on the attainment of all pupils in the senior phase by stage (S4, S5 and S6). __________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1 Members of the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board are asked to: • note the content of this report;
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• note the efforts of pupils and the school communities in achieving these results; and • agree that a further report will be brought to the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board when leavers data becomes available. 3. Background 3.1 Insight is a performance evaluation tool provided by the Scottish Government to schools and education authorities as a way of benchmarking performance in four key measures: • Attainment in literacy and numeracy; • Improving attainment for all; • Attainment versus deprivation; and • Leavers’ destinations. 3.2 This report provides data and commentary on the performance of each of our senior phase cohorts (S4, S5 and S6) over the last three years and against our virtual comparator for three of the measures detailed above. Leavers’ destinations will become available in February/March 2025 and will form part of the report to this board in spring 2025 or as soon thereafter if the data release is delayed. 3.3 In addition to these local benchmarking measures, this report will provide data in relation to the number and quality of passes at each qualifications level. 3.4 The methodology for the Insight ‘virtual comparator’ (VC) is unchanged in 2024. The virtual comparator allows authorities and schools to make statistically valid comparisons between how young people have performed against young people nationally, who share four similar characteristics. These characteristics are gender, year group, percentage of time spent in mainstream classes (ASN), and the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) decile which measures the level of deprivation experienced in the area that a pupil resides. 4. Attainment in literacy and numeracy (S4, S5 and S6) 4.1 Raising attainment in literacy and numeracy remains a key priority of Renfrewshire Council children’s services and this is reflected in one of the key priorities of the National Improvement Framework. 4.2 Attainment in literacy and numeracy includes passes at National 4 and 5 in English and Maths and passes in some other awards at Scottish Certificate and Qualification Framework (SCQF) levels 4 and 5 which contain certain core elements of literacy and numeracy. The tables which follow, provide data on our performance in literacy and numeracy, alongside our virtual comparator and national figures, for each of our senior phase cohorts.
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S4 4.3 Table 1 below provides data on attainment in literacy and numeracy in S4 at SCQF Level 4 and SCQF Level 5. Table 1 - % S4 Pupils Achieving Literacy & Numeracy Year % Achieved Level 4 Literacy % Achieved Level 4 Numeracy % Achieved Level 5 Literacy % Achieved Level 5 Numeracy Renfrewshire 2022 94% 91% 78% 67% Virtual Comparator 2022 93% 88% 76% 62% National 2022 92% 88% 75% 62% Renfrewshire 2023 94% 90% 77% 68% Virtual Comparator 2023 93% 89% 77% 65% National 2023 92% 88% 76% 64% Renfrewshire 2024 92% 91% 80% 70% Virtual Comparator 2024 91% 89% 76% 65% National 2024 90% 87% 75% 64% 4.4 The percentage of pupils achieving SCQF Level 4 and SCQF Level 5 in literacy and numeracy was above both the national and virtual comparators in 2024. This has been a consistent trend over the previous 3 years. Attainment at SCQF level 5 has increased on the previous year in Renfrewshire while both comparators have remained at similar levels.
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S5 (based on S4 roll) 4.5 Table 2 below provides data on attainment in literacy and numeracy in S5 at SCQF Level 4 and Level 5. Table 2 - % S5 Pupils Achieving Literacy and Numeracy Year % Achieved Level 4 Literacy % Achieved Level 4 Numeracy % Achieved Level 5 Literacy % Achieved Level 5 Numeracy Renfrewshire 2022 96% 92% 87% 74% Virtual Comparator 2022 95% 92% 83% 71% National 2022 93% 90% 81% 68% Renfrewshire 2023 94% 93% 84% 76% Virtual Comparator 2023 94% 91% 82% 71% National 2023 93% 90% 81% 70% Renfrewshire 2024 94% 91% 82% 74% Virtual Comparator 2024 94% 91% 82% 72% National 2024 93% 90% 81% 71% 4.6 Renfrewshire S5 remains very closely aligned to comparator figures in 2024. The exception to this is SCQF Level 5 numeracy where Renfrewshire is ahead of the national figure by 3 percentage points and ahead of the virtual comparator by 2 percentage points. Attainment at SCQF Level 5 has decreased on previous years however these comparisons are less reliable due to changes in awarding methodologies. S6 (based on the S4 roll) 4.7 Table 3 below provides data on attainment in literacy and numeracy in S6 at SCQF Level 4 and Level 5. Table 3 -% S6 Pupils Achieving Literacy & Numeracy Year % Achieved Level 4 Literacy % Achieved Level 4 Numeracy % Achieved Level 5 Literacy % Achieved Level 5 Numeracy Renfrewshire 2022 96% 94% 89% 78% Virtual Comparator 2022 94% 91% 82% 72% National 2022 95% 93% 84% 74% Renfrewshire 2023 96% 93% 88% 75% Virtual Comparator 2023 93% 90% 81% 70% National 2023 95% 92% 84% 72% Renfrewshire 2024 95% 93% 84% 77% Virtual Comparator 2024 93% 90% 81% 71% National 2024 94% 92% 83% 73%
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4.8 In S6, Renfrewshire remains above its virtual comparator and the national level across all measures. This is consistent with previous years. At SCQF Level 5, Renfrewshire is 3 percentage points ahead of the national figure in literacy and 5 percentage points ahead in numeracy in 2024. Attainment at SCQF Level 4 is slightly down on the previous year while SCQF Level 5 attainment is in line with or ahead of 2023 figures. 5. Improving attainment for all 5.1 Each qualification on the Scottish Certificate and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) is attributed a number of tariff points. The higher level of qualification, the more tariff points are attributed. Each pupil gains a number of points that represents the number and level of qualifications they have gained. This report uses complementary tariff points, which measures a fixed volume of learning. Complementary tariff points allow for fair comparison across Scotland, regardless of differences in curricular models. 5.2 Within this measure, Insight breaks the data down into three groups: the average complementary tariff points for the lowest attaining 20%, the middle attaining 60% and the highest attaining 20% and compares these with the virtual comparator and the national figure. S4 5.3 Graph 1 below shows the average complementary tariff points of S4 pupils by attainment cohort in the 2024 exam diet. 5.4 In S4, the average complementary tariff is ahead of both the national and virtual comparator for the lowest 20% and middle 60% attainment cohorts. The highest 20% attainment cohort is marginally behind both comparators, with a difference of -1%. 111 328 421 99 322 426 89 318 426 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Lowest 20% Attainment Cohort Middle 60% Attainment Cohort Highest 20% Attainment CohortAverage Complementary Tariff Points Attainment Cohorts Improving Attainment for All S4 Average Complementary Tariff Points Renfrewshire Virtual Comparator National Graph 1- Renfrewshire S4 Complementary Tariff by Attainment Cohort 2024
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S5 5.7 The graph below shows the average complementary tariff points of S5 pupils by attainment cohort in the 2024 exam diet. 5.8 Graph 2 demonstrates that Renfrewshire is behind the comparator figures for the lowest 20% attainment cohort. This is related to 2023 S4 cohort. The middle 60% attainment cohort is ahead of both comparators and the highest 20% is broadly in line with both national and virtual figures. S6 5.11 Graph 3 shows the average complementary tariff points of S6 pupils by attainment cohort in the 2024 exam diet. 115 529 958 126 523 954 117 518 959 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Lowest 20% Attainment Cohort Middle 60% Attainment Cohort Highest 20% Attainment CohortAverage Complementary Tariff Points Attainment Cohorts Improving Attainment for All S5 Average Complementary Tariff Points Renfrewshire Virtual Comparator National 149 624 1235 133 623 1268 123 613 1269 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Lowest 20% Attainment Cohort Middle 60% Attainment Cohort Highest 20% Attainment CohortAverage Complementary Tariff Points Attainment Cohorts Improving Attainment for All S6 Average Complementary Tariff Points Renfrewshire Virtual Comparator National Graph 2- Renfrewshire S5 Complementary Tariff by Attainment Cohort 2024 Graph 3- Renfrewshire S6 Complementary Tariff by Attainment Cohort 2024
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5.12 In graph 3, we can see that the average complementary tariff for the lowest 20% attainment cohort is above both the virtual comparator and national figures. Pupils in the middle 60% attainment cohort are also ahead of both comparators. The highest 20% attainment cohort is below both the virtual comparator and national figures. 6. Attainment versus deprivation 6.1 The attainment versus deprivation measure provides the average complementary tariff of pupils by SIMD decile. This allows us to identify the attainment gap in Renfrewshire and compare it to both our virtual comparator and national data. 6.2 The following charts show SIMD deciles 1 -10 (most deprived to least deprived) plotted along the horizontal axis with the average complementary tariff points plotted on the vertical axis. The size of the circles represents the percentage of pupils who live in each decile. The trend line which runs through the circles represents the difference in attainment between pupils living in the most deprived and the least deprived areas. The steeper the angle, the more pronounced the disparity between the most and least deprived deciles. S4 6.3 Renfrewshire’s S4 average complementary tariff is above or in line with national figures in all deciles. The trendlines indicate that the size of the gap is consistent between Renfrewshire and national figures, however Renfrewshire attainment is consistently higher. 238 261 273 283 309 323 320 348 349 370 237 245 260 274 286 302 315 328 341 364 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S4 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire National Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (National) Graph 4- S4 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs National) 2024
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6.4 Renfrewshire’s S4 average complementary tariff is marginally behind the virtual comparator in decile 1 but is in line with or ahead across all other deciles. The trendlines in graph 5 indicate that Renfrewshire has a slightly larger attainment gap however this is due to attainment in the higher deciles being further ahead of the virtual figures. 6.5 Table 7 shows the S4 average complementary tariff of pupils living in SIMD 1- 3 (30% most deprived areas) and of pupils living in SIMD 4-10 (70% least deprived areas) over 5 years. It also shows the Tariff Point gap between these two figures. Table 7- Renfrewshire S4 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Groupings 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Pupils Living in 30% Most Deprived Areas 280 277 269 255 255 Pupils Living in 70% Least Deprived Areas 339 341 332 327 329 Percentage Gap -17% -19% -19% -22% -23% 6.6 The average complementary tariff of pupils living in 30% most and 70% least deprived areas are in line with 2023 figures and therefore the gap remains at a similar level. The latest data demonstrates an increase on previous years which reflects national trends. 238 261 273 283 309 323 320 348 349 370 246 256 268 283 296 315 318 327 343 365 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S4 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire Virtual Comparator Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (Virtual Comparator) Graph 5- S4 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs Virtual Comparator) 2024
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S5 6.7 The S5 average complementary tariff for Renfrewshire is above national in all but three SIMD deciles (1,4 and 10). The trend lines indicate that the gaps between most and least deprived pupils is broadly similar, although Renfrewshire figures are higher than national. 374 422 464 442 545 564 661 659 674 711 380 402 435 471 502 533 571 610 658 729 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S5 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire National Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (National) Graph 6- S5 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs National) 2024 Graph 7- S5 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs Virtual Comparator) 2024
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6.8 Graph 7 shows that Renfrewshire is very closely aligned with the virtual comparator. Renfrewshire is ahead of the virtual comparator in six out of 10 deciles. The trendlines suggest that attainment gaps are very similar between Renfrewshire and its Virtual Comparator. 6.9 Table 8 shows the S5 average complementary tariff of pupils living in SIMD 1- 3 (30% most deprived areas) and of pupils living in SIMD 4-10 (70% least deprived areas) over 5 years. It also shows the Tariff Point gap between these two figures. Table 8- Renfrewshire S5 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Groupings 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Pupils Living in 30% Most Deprived Areas 443 465 457 433 416 Pupils Living in 70% Least Deprived Areas 666 666 642 614 602 Percentage Gap -33% -30% -29% -29% -31% 6.10 Renfrewshire figures over time mirror national trends with attainment of pupils living in most and least deprived areas decreasing in 2024. The size of the gap has varied year to year but represents a broadly flat trend over the previous 5 years. 374 422 464 442 545 564 661 659 674 711 393 421 457 487 520 554 605 610 675 718 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S5 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire Virtual Comparator Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (Virtual Comparator)
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S6 6.11 The S6 average complementary tariff is higher than national in all but 3 SIMD deciles (3, 7 and 10). The trend lines indicate that across the board attainment is very close to national figures and therefore the size of the gap is similar. 487 554 485 566 612 675 701 803 857 899 461 488 524 562 611 649 715 752 821 931 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S6 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire National Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (National) 487 554 485 566 612 675 701 803 857 899 487 508 550 575 619 670 744 765 822 939 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 SIMD Decile Attainment vs Deprivation S6 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile Renfrewshire Virtual Comparator Linear (Renfrewshire) Linear (Virtual Comparator) Graph 8- S6 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs National) 2024 Graph 9- S6 Complementary Tariff by SIMD Decile (Ren vs Virtual Comparator)
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6.12 Renfrewshire is above the virtual comparator in half of SIMD deciles which has resulted in the trend lines remaining very close. Table 9 – Renfrewshire S6 Average Complementary Tariff by SIMD Groupings 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Pupils Living in 30% Most Deprived Areas 507 534 548 527 505 Pupils Living in 70% Least Deprived Areas 781 830 798 770 730 Tariff Point Gap -35% -36% -31% -32% -31% 6.13 The average complementary tariff for pupils living in the 30% most deprived and 70% least deprived group have tracked each other closely over the previous 3 years so while the size of the gap has reduced since 2023 the differences are minimal. 7. Breadth and depth 7.1 In addition to the key measures available in Insight, the service also looks at the percentage of the cohort who achieved any number of awards at various SCQF levels. These are known as ‘breadth and depth’ measures. We look at this data in conjunction with the Insight measures to allow us to gain a broader understanding of attainment across Renfrewshire and between schools. 7.2 The tables on the following pages show performance over time of some of the key breadth and depth measures and how we compare to the virtual comparator. SCQF 4 is National 4 or its equivalent, SCQF Level 5 is National 5 or its equivalent, SCQF Level 6 is Higher or its equivalent; and SCQF Level 7 is Advanced Higher or its equivalent. S4 7.3 Table 10 includes data on the number of awards achieved for S4 pupils at SCQF Level 4 and Level 5 for Renfrewshire and the virtual comparator. Table 10- S4 Breadth & Depth S4 3 or more awards at SCQF level 4 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 4 or better 3 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC 2022 93% 91% 86% 83% 74% 70% 59% 55% 2023 89% 91% 81% 82% 71% 70% 58% 54% 2024 90% 89% 83% 80% 73% 71% 59% 55% 7.4 In S4, Renfrewshire is ahead of the virtual comparator across all key measures in 2024. This has been a consistent trend over 3 years at SCQF Level 5. There was a slight decrease in attainment in 2023 within the SCQF Level 4 measures which had put Renfrewshire behind the virtual figure in that year only.
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S5 7.5 Table 11 includes data on the number of awards achieved for S5 pupils at SCQF levels 5 and 6 for Renfrewshire and the virtual comparator. Table 11- S5 Breadth & Depth (% of S4 Roll) S5 1 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 3 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 1 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better 3 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC 2022 92% 90% 82% 80% 69% 68% 70% 66% 49% 48% 27% 25% 2023 90% 88% 80% 78% 68% 66% 68% 65% 47% 46% 28% 25% 2024 88% 88% 76% 77% 66% 65% 68% 64% 47% 45% 26% 25% 7.6 At SCQF Level 5, Renfrewshire is in line with the virtual comparator at 1 and 3 or more awards but is marginally behind at 3 or more awards. This is inconsistent with previous years and may relate to poor attainment at SCQF level 4 in S4 the previous year. At SCQF Level 6, Renfrewshire is consistently ahead of the virtual comparator, most notable at 1 or more awards where Renfrewshire is 4 percentage points ahead of the virtual figure. S6 7.7 Table 12 includes data on the number of awards achieved for S6 pupils at SCQF levels 5, 6 and 7 for Renfrewshire and the virtual comparator. Table 12- S6 Breadth & Depth (% of S4 Roll) S6 3 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 5 or better 1 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better 3 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better 5 or more awards at SCQF level 6 or better 1 or more awards at SCQF level 7 or better Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC Ren VC 2022 82% 81% 74% 71% 75% 70% 60% 56% 45% 41% 27% 28% 2023 83% 81% 73% 70% 73% 69% 56% 55% 41% 40% 26% 27% 2024 81% 79% 71% 68% 69% 67% 54% 53% 41% 39% 25% 26% 7.8 In S6, Renfrewshire has performed above the virtual comparator in all measures at SCQF Level 5 and Level 6. This is consistent with previous year’s trends. Attainment at SCQF Level 7 is slightly behind the virtual comparator, which mimics previous years at this level. 8. Conclusion and next steps 8.1 The 2024 results need to be considered in the context of returning to a traditional exam diet after challenging circumstances and the alternative certification model. Considered in this context, it would not be helpful to directly compare attainment to 2020-2023. Better comparisons are to be made with national and virtual figures which provide context for how Renfrewshire is performing in relation to young people across the country. What is clear is that young people across Renfrewshire have performed exceptionally well, and they should be congratulated for all that they have achieved.
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8.2 A further report on finalised leavers’ data and the attainment of our looked after children will be presented to this board in spring 2025 or as soon thereafter as the data becomes available. ___________________________________________________________________ Implications of the Report 1. Financial – No financial implications 2. HR & Organisational Development – No HR implications 3. Community/Council Planning – The priorities within the Education Improvement Plan support delivery of the priorities contained within Renfrewshire’s Community Plan, Council Plan and the Children’s Services Improvement Plan. Raising attainment for all whilst closing the poverty related attainment gap remains a significant focus for Renfrewshire Council. Economy Equipping all children and young people to achieve success in life Fair Creating inclusive and supportive learning environments for children and young people to attain and achieve Embedding children’s rights in our decision-making processes 4. Legal – no legal implications 5. Property/Assets – No risks to property/assets. 6. Information Technology – No information and technology risks. 7. Equality & Human Rights – The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report. If required following implementation, the actual impact of the recommendations and the mitigating actions will be reviewed and monitored, and the results of the assessment will be published on the Council’s website. 8. Health & Safety – No negative impacts on health and safety. 9. Procurement – No procurement risks 10. Risk – No risks identified. 11. Privacy Impact – No impact on privacy. 12. Cosla Policy Position – N/A 13. Climate Risk – None.
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14. Children’s Rights – This links to, Article 12 (respect for the views of the child) Every child has the right to express their views, feelings and wishes in all matters affecting them, and to have their views considered and taken seriously. This right applies at all times, for example during immigration proceedings, housing decisions or the child’s day-to-day home life. Article 28 (right to education) Every child has the right to an education. Primary education must be free and different forms of secondary education must be available to every child. Discipline in schools must respect children’s dignity and their rights. Richer countries must help poorer countries achieve this. Article 29 (goals of education) Education must develop every child’s personality, talents and abilities to the full. It must encourage the child’s respect for human rights, as well as respect for their parents, their own and other cultures, and the environment. List of Background Papers – none Author: Emma Henry, Head of Education, emma.henry@renfrewshire.gov.uk 16 October 2024