Roll Projections ECSPB
Renfrewshire Council · 18 January 2024
Back to Education and Children's Services Policy Board — 18 January 2024 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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Page 1 of 5 To: Education and Children’s Services Policy Board On: 18 January 2024 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Children’s Services ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Roll Projection Update ___________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1 To support long term planning and future decision making in terms of education provision relating to the Dargavel development, the Council commissioned a specialist data analytics company, Edge Analytics, to carry out a 10-year roll projection exercise for all schools affected. 1.2 The output of this exercise was provided in February 2023, which provided a basis for decisions to be made on both a new 800 pupil primary school in Dargavel as well as an extension to Park Mains High School. 1.3 The exercise provided different scenarios, and Officers have been planning for these. 1.4 The 10-year projection indicated a year-on-year increase in pupil roll. To understand whether this trend might be reasonably expected to continue, level off, or drop off, which would then inform any future options, Edge Analytics were asked to extend their projections for a further five-year period to 2038. 1.5 This extended exercise shows a peak in 2033/34 for primary provision but a year-on year fall in roll thereafter i.e., there is a spike then a drop off. For secondary, the roll peaks in 2034/35 then falls thereafter. 1.6 The further ahead we project the less reliable the exact figures are, but the overall trend/curve can reasonably be used for the purpose of planning ahead. ___________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1 Members of the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board are asked to: Note that the 15-year roll projection exercise caried out by Edge Analytics illustrates that the demand for non-denominational primary provision will peak in 2033/34 and will fall year-on-year thereafter.
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Page 2 of 5 Note that the 15-year roll projection exercise caried out by Edge Analytics illustrates that the demand for non-denominational secondary provision will peak in 2034/35 and will fall year-on-year thereafter. Note that all roll projection data with an extended timeline must be treated with a degree of caution and that the data will continue to be closely monitored. Note that a further update will be brought back to Board on the roll projection exercise for the whole learning estate. ___________________________________________________________________ 3. Background Primary Provision 3.1 Edge Analytics provided three scenarios for non-denominational primary provision: 1. Projection of 1131 by 2033, derived from their tried and tested model used extensively across the UK 2. Adjusted projection of 1399 by 2033, based on a 2023/24 P1 intake of 140 3. Adjusted projection of 1500 by 2033, based on a 2023/24 P1 intake of 150 3.2 This Board agreed in March 2023 to base future planning on the 1131 figure, on the basis that the higher figures were extrapolated from only one year of P1 intake data and were not consistent with the tried-and-tested modelling used by Edge for similar sized developments across the UK. While it was noted that these higher figures should be treated with caution, it was also recognised that they also provide for a potential maximum scenario. Secondary Provision 3.3 Edge Analytics provided two scenarios for Park Mains High School: 1. projection of 2134 by 2033, derived from their tried and tested model used extensively across the UK; and 2. adjusted projection of 1923 by 2033, based on a 2023/24 S1 intake of 260.
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Page 3 of 5 3.4 It is important to note that the roll projection for Park Mains High School includes all pupils who could potentially attend the school including those attending via placing requests. Therefore, to protect the capacity, the Council will manage the requirements of the catchment only which will mean a reduction in the number of placing requests. The detail of this can be found in the August 23 Board report Education Provision Aug 2023 3.5 The 10-year projections for both primary and secondary indicated a year-on- year increase in pupil rolls. ___________________________________________________________________ 4. Longer Term Roll Projection 4.1 To provide further evidence to support long-term investment decisions, Edge Analytics were asked to extend their modelling exercise out over a 15-year period, to 2038. 4.2 The pupil projections and scenarios were derived using the latest and best available data at this point in time, informed by key assumptions on future births, migration and the impact of planned housing. Primary provision: non-denominational Secondary provision: Park Mains High School 4.3 It is important to note that both scenarios above also include an element of assumed continuation for children who do not come from the ‘feeder’ primary schools (placing requests and those from denominational primary schools in the area). This represents 160 pupils and is recognised as discretionary provision of places that, if required, can be managed out the system over a number of years to protect the long-term availability of capacity for feeder primary schools – the projections excluding this additionality are outlined in
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Page 4 of 5 the table below. Adjusting for this 160 pupil additionality, the Edge projection over the next 15 year period indicates that in 2038/39, demand is projected to less than the 2000 capacity, and comfortably less if the current confirmed live data variation continues as a trend over the medium term. 4.4 The data from this further exercise for both Primary and Secondary provision illustrates that school rolls will peak then start to fall again in future years. 4.5 For the purposes of long-term planning, it is helpful to have the knowledge that demand is likely to peak then drop off. 4.6 The further ahead we project the less reliable the exact figures are, but the overall trend/curve can reasonably be used for the purpose of planning ahead. 4.7 As previously advised, actual admissions data over time will be closely monitored to better understand whether a trend is developing, and to allow sufficient time to plan ahead in order to manage any potential higher peak. Also on the agenda for this Board is a separate report on future options. 4.8 To inform future strategic planning across the whole learning estate, we have commissioned Edge to undertake roll projection exercises across all 61 of our schools. The results of this widescale exercise will be brought back to a future Board. _____________________________________________________________ Implications of this report 1. Financial None. 2. HR and Organisational Development None. 3. Community/Council Planning None. 4. Legal None. 5. Property/Assets None. 6. Information Technology None.
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Page 5 of 5 7. Equality and Human Rights The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report because for example it is for noting only. If required following implementation, the actual impact of the recommendations and the mitigating actions will be reviewed and monitored, and the results of the assessment will be published on the Council’s website. 8. Health and Safety None. 9. Procurement None. 10. Risk None. 11. Privacy Impact None. 12. Cosla Policy Position None. 13. Climate Risk None. List of Background Papers None. ___________________________________________________________________ Children’s Services JC Author: Julie Calder, Head of Education, julie.calder@renfrewshire.gov.uk, telephone 0141 487 0884