Dargavel Housing Development Impact on Denominational Education Provision ECSPB
Renfrewshire Council · 2 November 2023
Back to Education and Children's Services Policy Board — 2 November 2023 and its agenda
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2 ___________________________________________________________________ To: Education and Children’s Services Policy Board On: 2 November 2023 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Interim Chief Education Officer ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Dargavel Housing Development – Impact on Denominational Education Provision __________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1. This report provides more detail on non-denominational school capacity relating to the Dargavel development. 1.2. Overall there is sufficient capacity to meet the need for denominational primary provision. 1.3. 15 year forecasting carried out by Edge analytics shows a potential small capacity breach at the catchment primary school St John Bosco (SJB). 1.4. If this situation does arise, as previously advised this can be easily managed within the availability across the wider campus which is shared with Bargarran Primary School. 1.5. The current rate of admissions for SJB is significantly lower than the model predicts, which could be due to a number of factors, mainly the individual choices of families. 1.6. Should this rate of admissions, combined with the higher than expected admissions at Dargavel Primary School continue, the roll at SJB could drop to such an extent that the school would only be operating at 61% of its capacity. 1.7. All indications at this stage are that there should be no unmanageable issues with denominational primary provision arising from the Dargavel development 1.8. The denominational catchment school, Trinity high school is currently operating under capacity. Moreover, it has a significant portion of its pupil roll (17%) comprising a mixture of non-catchment pupils (with a large number of these being
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3 from outwith Renfrewshire) as well as pupils who previously attended non- denominational primary schools. 1.9. Similar to SJB, the modelling shows a potential maximum pupil roll of slightly more than the school capacity but drops again over time and could potentially drop to significantly below capacity. 1.10. If that situation does materialise, it is expected to be managed by limiting admissions to pupils who live within Renfrewshire. As a result of this it is considered that Trinity can manage its demand over time. 1.11. For both of these schools, as well as all other schools affected by the Dargavel development, the modelling along with live admissions data will be closely monitored over time to identify and respond to any unexpected trends as required. ___________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendation 2.1 The Education and Children’s Services Policy Board is asked to: • note the content of this report. ___________________________________________________________________ 3. Background 3.1. The issues relating to school capacity arising from the Dargavel development have been well documented in a series of reports to the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board (ECSPB) over the past year. 3.2. These reports have focussed in the main on the known issues and pressures for the school estate, both primary and secondary, in terms of non-denominational provision, which has been the main area of concern. 3.3. There is less concern over denominational provision, and this has been covered, at a high-level, in previous reports. This report provides some further information on denominational provision based on modelling provided by the Council’s specialist data analytics consultants Edge Analytics. ___________________________________________________________________ 4. Primary Provision 4.1. The catchment denominational primary school for the Dargavel area is St John Bosco (SJB) in Erskine, which is part of a shared campus with Bargarran Primary School. 4.2. The school capacity is 272 and the current school roll is 256. 4.3. As previously reported, the new modelling for school roll projections has shown a possible capacity breach at SJB on future years. The shared campus has the flexibility for us to create additional denominational space for SJB if that is required, as Bargarran currently operates below capacity and is expected to continue to do so in the future.
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4 4.4. The roll projections for SJB are illustrated in the table below. 4.5. As you can see, the standard model used by our consultants shows a potential occupancy peak at 286, which is only 14 pupils above the current school capacity. Should that situation arise, we would expect the numbers to be easily managed by making minor modifications across the campus. 4.6. However, the current rate of school admissions to SJB is lower than that predicted in the model. The modelling shows 42 P1 admissions for this session but in reality the new admissions were only 27, or 64% of what was predicted. 4.7. Conversely, we are seeing admissions at Dargavel Primary School (DPS) being higher than the model projected. 4.8. It could be the case that some families whose children would otherwise be eligible for SJB have chosen to send them to DPS instead. 4.9. Should the admissions rates at both schools continue in this way, we may see a significant drop in the roll at SJB, to 167 by 2032/33. 4.10. To summarise, the model is suggesting that there may be a slight capacity breach at SJB in future years, but this can be managed across the wider campus. Actual admissions are currently well below the model, and we will need to monitor this closely over time to understand more about the trends. 4.11. All indications at this stage are that there should be no unmanageable issues with denominational primary provision arising from the Dargavel development. This is something which will be closely monitored in future years. ___________________________________________________________________ 5. Secondary Provision 5.1. The catchment secondary school is Trinity High School in Renfrew with a current capacity of c.1050 against a current school roll of 950. 5.2. Within the 950 there are 100 pupils from out-with the school’s catchment area, and of these 100, 64 reside out-with Renfrewshire. 5.3. In addition, there are currently another 62 pupils at Trinity who previously attended non-denominational primary schools. 5.4. The modelling suggests that there could be a potential maximum of 1092 in 2032/33, but this figure is likely to significantly reduce over time to potentially 830. This is illustrated in the table below:
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5 5.5. Given that the maximum potential short-term peak figure is only slightly above the school’s current capacity, these numbers can be managed by limiting admissions to those pupils who live within the Council-area. 5.6. For these reasons, it is considered that Trinity High School can manage its future projected demand. 5.7. The modelling along with actual admissions data will be closely monitored over time and any potential issues flagged up. ___________________________________________________________________ Implications of the Report 1. Financial This report is for noting and as such there no implications which arise directly from this report. 2. HR and Organisational Development None. 3. Community/Council Planning None. 4. Legal None. 5. Property/Assets None. 6. Information Technology None. 7. Equality and Human Rights The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report. If required following implementation, the actual impact of the recommendations and the mitigating actions will be reviewed and monitored, and the results of the assessment will be published on the Council’s website. 8. Health and Safety None.
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6 9. Procurement None. 10. Risk None. 11. Privacy Impact None. 12. 13. Cosla Policy Position None. Climate Risk None. JC Children’s Services 25 October 2023 Author: Julie Calder, Head of Education/Interim Chief Education Officer, julie.calder@renfrewshire.gov.uk