Learning Estate Strategy - Outline Business Cases ECSPB
Renfrewshire Council · 12 March 2026
Back to Education and Children's Services Policy Board — 12 March 2026 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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1 OFFICIAL To: Education and Children’s Services Policy Board On: 12 March 2026 Report by: Director of Children’s Services Heading: Learning Estate Strategy Update – Outline Business Cases 1. Summary 1.1 In 2024, Renfrewshire Council agreed a new learning estate strategy with the overall aim of initiating a strategic programme of investment in schools through detailed assessment of the entire learning estate. The ambition of the investment programme is to ‘create the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive’ 1.2 A key output of the assessment was identification of a cohort of 14 priority schools highlighted as requiring investment to ensure they meet the ambition of the strategy, from which a business case process began, examining Johnstone primary school estate, Johnstone High School, and Trinity High School. 1.3 Following presentation of a Strategic Case for Change in respect of each to the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board in August 2025, work began to further investigate options for change, in the form of Outline Business Cases (OBC). The OBC recommend a shortlist of options for future investment in each case, for Members to consider. ___________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1 It is recommended that members of the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board: a. Note the contents of the three OBC documents in respect of Johnstone Primary estate, Johnstone High School, and Trinity High School, as outlined in this report. b. Agree to the shortlisted options recommended in the OBC to be taken forward to Full Business Case stage (FBC).
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2 OFFICIAL c. Note the proposal to further develop the shortlisted options during 2026 as part of a FBC, and to present the final recommended option for each business case to this Policy Board early in 2027. d. Note the FBC development budget proposed for each project which will enable technical issues to be progressed to further inform the feasibility of options, allowing a robust final recommendation for each business case in early 2027 to be developed. _____________________________________________________________ 3. Background 3.1 Renfrewshire Council published a new Learning Estate Strategy in 2024, setting out plans to improve its education infrastructure through a structured approach to assessment of school buildings. 3.2 The entire school estate was assessed against numerous criteria including condition, suitability for delivery of the curriculum, capacity and demand, with schools ranked using a prioritisation framework. This identified those schools and areas most in need of inclusion now in long-term investment planning, to ensure that the Council is best placed to: • Secure best value from strategic learning estate decisions around investment • Meet the expected long-term demand for education provision across Renfrewshire whilst delivering improvements in school buildings and learning environments • Ensure that the delivery of any new infrastructure complements other key strategic objectives being progressed by the Council to optimise the use of assets for communities and support wider redesign of services that better meet the needs of communities. 3.3 At the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board of March 2025, 14 priority schools were agreed, including four schools in Johnstone - Auchenlodment, St Margeret’s and Thorn Primaries, and Johnstone High School – and Trinity High School in Renfrew. 3.4 In May 2025, parameters were set out for examination of the context and potential solutions for each project area through a business case process, including agreement that other nearby schools could feature as part of the options where appropriate. 3.5 A Strategic Case for Change was created for Johnstone Primary estate, Johnstone High School and Trinity High School and presented to E&CS Policy Board in August 2025. Members agreed on the context for change and agreed to the subsequent development of OBC to focus on the development of options for change. 3.6 An interim update to E&CS Policy Board was presented in October 2025, identifying viable routes forward in respect of each priority project area. These were informed through an understanding of the operating context at each school, set against the business needs, objectives and scope articulated in critical success factors set out in the Strategic Case for Change. __________________________________________________________________
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3 OFFICIAL 4. Outline Business Case 4.1 Officers committed to return to this Board in March 2026 with an OBC for each of the three priority project areas. These documents are presented as appendices 1, 2 and 3, as follows: • Johnstone Primary School Estate – Outline Business Case • Johnstone High School – Outline Business Case • Trinity High School – Outline Business Case 4.2 The business cases are based on the HM Treasury Green Book recommended structure, using the 5 Case model to set out the rationale for change and to articulate potential solutions: • Strategic case – confirming that strategic objectives remain current and seek agreement on the recommendation • Economic Case – helping to determine that the preferred way forward offers value for money • Commercial Case – working towards a recommended deal by explaining potential delivery models, procurement and engagement • Financial Case – establishing affordability and funding requirements • Management Case – planning for successful delivery 4.3 Each OBC recaps the strategic and local context for the priority areas, examining those factors that contribute to the need for change, clarifying the requirement for long-term investment, referencing findings from initial community engagement and highlighting the potential benefits. 4.4 The documents go on to outline the potential solutions for each project area, building on the preferred ways forward first outlined to this Board in October 2025. The OBC discuss indicative costs in each case, before discussing the Council’s approach to delivering the solutions, including the approach to procurement, financial feasibility and effective management of the projects. ___________________________________________________________________ 5. Shortlisted Options and Indicative Costs Johnstone Primary School Estate 5.1 For Johnstone Primary School Estate, the preferred route forward presented in October 2025 to this Board, recommended a masterplan approach to the whole of the primary school estate in the town, acknowledging and addressing the clear overprovision of school places across Johnstone and the opportunity to make the most of existing good-quality facilities as follows:
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4 OFFICIAL Address the overprovision of primary school places in Johnstone and the requirements of the 3 priority schools of Thorn, Auchenlodment, and St Margaret’s, by: • Making best use of capacity of existing high-quality buildings including St Anthony’s, West Johnstone Joint Campus, and Fordbank. • Considering the location of any new build school facility that would look to combine more than one existing school on the same site • Considering the most appropriate catchment area configurations to support efficiency and capacity. A longlist of potential sites and school catchment configurations was developed in a structure which aims to meet these requirements. 5.2 The following shortlist of options emerged: a) Merge Thorn and Auchenlodment catchment areas, combining both non- denominational schools in a single modern building by one of the following means: 1. Site 01 - Retrofit and extend the existing Auchenlodment Primary School building to provide a modern 2 stream primary school, early years provision, and community space at Aspen Place, Johnstone 2. Site 01 – Construct a new build 2 stream primary school, early years provision, and community space at the existing Auchenlodment primary school site at Aspen Place, Johnstone 3. Site 04 - Construct a new build 2 stream primary school with capacity, early years provision, and community space at the site of the existing Thorn Primary, Thorn Brae, Johnstone 4. Site 09 - Construct a new build 2 stream primary school, early years provision, and community space on a new Site at Poplar Avenue, Johnstone The above options are proposed to be supported with the following also taking place: b) Merge Cochrane Castle and Fordbank catchment areas, combining both non-denominational schools at the current Fordbank Primary School site. c) Merge St Margaret’s and St David’s catchment areas, combining both denominational schools at the West Johnstone Joint Campus, creating a single denominational school. 5.3 Officers considered the potential cost of delivering a school project to combine Auchenlodment and Thorn. This produced an overall potential cost for a modern 2 stream primary school as follows:
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5 OFFICIAL Cost scenario Range Retrofit Auchenlodment and extend, for 434 pupils and early-years facility matching current provision. £35 - £45m Build a new 2 stream primary for 434 pupils, and early-years facility that matches current provision. £25 - £45m Johnstone High School 5.4 The preferred route forward for Johnstone High School acknowledged the clear over- capacity and poor condition at the school and the need to provide modern, good quality facilities for learners as follows: Address the capacity, school condition and suitability issues facing Johnstone High School by retrofitting the current school or rebuilding a new school on the current site, or a new site. 5.5 For Johnstone High School, it is possible to consider either a new build or major retrofit to provide a modern fit for purpose school environment. As a result of this, the three routes forward are all possible: Route 2 Route 3 Route 4 Retrofit the existing school Rebuild on the current Johnstone High site Rebuild elsewhere in the catchment area 5.6 To explore the specifics of these routes further, a long list of options to address the routes forward was compiled. For Route 2 – Retrofit the existing school, there is no permutation or longlist of options as it affects the current building. Variations of this option would be derived through careful design and requirements. For Route 3 – Rebuild on the current Johnstone High site – there are two possibilities with this option. The first being that the current building could be demolished with a decant strategy implemented to then rebuild on the same footprint. The second being to build a new school in a vacant area on the current site to keep the current school in operation, avoiding the need for a decant. Both variations will be explored further at the FBC stage. For Route 4 – Rebuild elsewhere in the catchment area, several options were considered and are detailed in the OBC. 5.7 The findings of the above exercise have resulted in the following shortlist of options being proposed to be taken forward:
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6 OFFICIAL Option 01 Retrofit Johnstone High School on Site 01 Johnstone High School Beith Road, Johnstone Option 02 New Build on Site 01 Existing Johnstone High School Site, Beith Road, Johnstone Option 03 New Build on Site 03 Beith Road Playing Fields, Johnstone 5.8 A further exercise was undertaken to produce indicative costs for provision of either a retrofitted or new-build school: Cost Scenario Range Option 1 – Retrofit the existing school £122m Option 2 – Rebuild on the current Johnstone High site £85 - £133m Option 3 – Rebuild elsewhere in the catchment area £91 - £144m Trinity High School 5.9 For Trinity High School, the preferred route forward acknowledges that the existing school site is too small to expand the building to meet demand and would not be used for a school of such size were it to be built new. This resulted in the only possible route forward for Trinity to be as follows: Address the capacity, school condition and suitability issues facing Trinity High School by building a new school on a suitable site elsewhere in the catchment area. 5.10 The shortlist of options therefore is focussed in identifying a suitable site, which meets the site assessment criteria and is preferably within the ownership of the Council:
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7 OFFICIAL Site 8 Rebuild Trinity High School on Site 08 – KGV Playing Fields Renfrew Site 9 Rebuild Trinity High School on Site 09 – East Craigend, Erskine Site 10 Rebuild Trinity High School on Site 10 – Barwood, Erskine 5.11 Officers produced indicative costs for a new build school using one of the sites as an example for costing purposes: Cost scenario Range New build Trinity High School on a suitable site £120 - £180m 5.12 Within the option of considering a new build Trinity High School at Site 8 – KGV Playing Fields, officers have considered the wider principles of the Learning Estate Strategy by considering it holistically with any nearby schools within an option. By recognising that this site is adjoined to the current site of Renfrew High School, officers considered whether the option of constructing a new Trinity High School at this site would constrain the future development of a new Renfrew High School at a future date. 5.13 This assessment concluded that there is adequate land available on the KGV to construct a new Trinity High School without constraining a future potential Renfrew High School. This assessment has also demonstrated that through careful design considerations, a new Trinity High School on this site could be designed in such a way that it supported the basis of how a future shared campus or shared use of facilities could be implemented, when the appropriate time to invest in a new Renfrew High School arrives. 5.14 Given this overview shows that it is possible to construct multiple development options including a joint campus, it allows further work to be conducted through the next stage of assessment to assess the development options for the KGV site that present the best value outcome for the Council, and any further community views, technical assessments or considerations. 5.15 However, it should be noted that estimates for delivering a shared campus option indicated a cost in the region of £220-320m. When set against the wider Learning Estate priorities and scale of funding that has to date been made available (£170m) affordability constraints may limit the deliverability of such an option in a single phase. 5.16 It is important to note that this consideration will only be apply to the option of constructing a new Trinity High School at Site 8 – KGV Playing Fields, due to the fact that Renfrew High School currently adjoins this site. A full explanation of this assessment is included in the OBC.
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8 OFFICIAL Indicative Costs – All Projects 5.17 The indicative costs are based on preliminary information and should be considered a framework from which detailed cost plans can be developed. The indicative costs have been built from high level information, benchmarking from various sources including the Scottish Futures Trust (SFT) funding metric, cost information from current Renfrewshire Council education construction projects, costs from other Council’s similar school projects and adjusting the costings where specific knowledge has been gained from the desktop assessment of the site options. The BCIS cost indices have also been used to calculate inflation up to the end of the anticipated construction period. 5.18 In considering the potential construction costs, it should be noted that all construction sites are unique and will differ from site to site in ways that will impact construction costs. This is as a result of ‘abnormal’ factors exclusive to every site. No two sites are the same, for example flood risk mitigation or ground remediation may be more or less consequential from site to site, with differing impact on the overall construction costs as to how the design addresses the site. In that sense, the indicative costs should be taken as a guide only, detailed site options appraisal will be necessary to fully understand the geotechnical characteristics and construction cost impact before making any final recommendations. 5.19 The project is currently at RIBA Plan of Works Stage 0 where at this stage it is key to define vision and goals, identify needs and opportunities and to establish a strategy. Therefore, there is no current design information. Key assumptions and exclusions are required to establish indicative costs and clearly indicate what is assumed as included in the costs and what is excluded at this stage. 5.20 To project an estimated cost for inflation purposes, the construction cost has been based on an assumed construction commencement date of 2030. All figures should be noted as exclusive of VAT. 5.21 Key assumptions and exclusions were used in compiling the indicative costs in the absence of any design commencing. This approach recognises that whilst a range of cost estimates have been presented, these remain volatile, subject to external factors and site specific detail that will become clearer as sites are investigated, and options further explored at the next stage. 5.22 It is important to highlight as part of this process, that no budget for construction will be requested or crystalised until further work has been undertaken into the validation of each option, and a recommendation is made thereafter at the conclusion of the Full Business Case. 5.23 It is however important to recognise that the validation and robust assessment of the viability of each option will require detailed assessment and technical consideration. As such, each business case will require an identified budget to deliver the next stage of development, the FBC. These budgets are outlined below. It is intended that the costs of progressing to FBC will be funded from the initial revenue contribution agreed by Council to support the Learning Estate Strategy in 2025/26, and that this contribution will be held in a ringfenced revenue reserve for this purpose.
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9 OFFICIAL 5.24 Required indicative budgets to conclusion of FBC process: Project Budget Johnstone Primary School Estate £330,000 Johnstone High School £920,000 Trinity High School £1,020,000 5.25 These budget proposals have been developed by considering all internal technical resource costs and all external professional services and consultant appointments required to interrogate and validate the shortlist of options. This cost is made up as follows: • Internal technical management costs to deliver project feasibility, cost management, architectural services and project management • Flood risk assessments • Roads and transportation assessments • Space planning, and timetabling and demand modelling to develop schedules of accommodation • Civil and Structural Engineering for ground investigation surveys and intrusive surveys on current school structures where required. 6. Next Steps and Timeline 6.1 Should the recommendations in these OBC be approved by Members, officers will commence work to identify and recommend a preferred option in each case. This will be reported to this Board by means of a Full Business Case (FBC) 6.2 To properly prepare three FBC that can faithfully recommend a preferred option to Members, officers will conduct further, detailed site assessments, undertake further cost modelling to better understand the long-term implications of each shortlisted option (including a whole life cost model), and a full programme of community engagement and informal consultation to inform understanding and subsequent decision making. 6.3 It is anticipated that the informal consultation with whole school communities will be a vital component in agreeing the most appropriate option to proceed with, however, this will be balanced against business, financial, and technical assessments to conclude the final option. A full programme of engagement is being developed and is broadly anticipated to be conducted as follows:
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10 OFFICIAL Activity Stakeholders Preparation and options development Senior Officers and SLT Elected Members Head Teachers Targeted Early Engagement Parent Councils/Parents Community Councils Local Community Groups Pupils Staff Council Services Broad Public Engagement Associated school parents and pupils General public Neighbours Analysis and Refinement Project team 6.4 The FBC would be presented in early 2027, and if approved, work would begin on any required statutory consultation to be carried out that year. Implications of the Report 1. Financial – Council has agreed to make provision of £2.5m of revenue resource in 2025/26, with similar amounts being committed to on an annual basis each year over the remaining years of the current Administration. The financial model underpinning the strategy continues to be developed, along with the framework and analysis required in the business case process. This financial provision will fund the programme of work as it progresses through business case development. As the FBCs develop, a clear funding strategy for each project will require to be agreed, including both Council and any potential Scottish Government resource which may become available via a successor programme to the Learning Estate Investment Programme (LEIP). 2. HR & Organisational Development None 3. Community/Council Planning - Our Renfrewshire is thriving New and improved learning estate assets will allow our children and young people to thrive with the best possible infrastructure to support their school experience. Staff and community users will benefit from modern and inclusive environments
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11 OFFICIAL - Reshaping our place, our economy and our future The learning estate shall be appropriately scaled and equipped to meet curriculum expectations and deliver an appropriate learning and teaching experience for all. 4. Legal None 5. Property/Assets These projects will deliver significant improvements to the learning estate, extending the life of assets and improving the experience of young people, staff and the wider community. 6. Information Technology Digital improvements will be delivered through the learning estate strategy, where access to technology for all will be a key priority for projects. 7. Equality & Human Rights The recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report. If required following implementation, the actual impact of the recommendations and the mitigating actions will be reviewed and monitored, and the results of the assessment will be published on the Council’s website. 8. Health & Safety None 9. Procurement Any procurement work required will be conducted in collaboration with the Council’s Procurement team and adhere to appropriate regulations. By developing the business case framework outlined in this report, procurement and commercial considerations will be conducted throughout. 10. Risk – All projects are bound by rigorous governance and supported by detailed risk registers. Risk is reported and managed at various levels with scrutiny applied to ensure mitigations and contingency plans are in place. The business case framework set out in Learning Estate Strategy updates will directly work to identify, manage and reduce risk. 11. Privacy Impact None 12. Children’s Rights When considering any future school provision, the impact this will have on children is key consideration and any work will be based around the direct needs of children to
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12 OFFICIAL allow their education experience to thrive. Whilst children have a right to choose where they wish to attend school in collaboration with their parents, the Council’s admission policy applies, to ensure that schools that are oversubscribed can be managed. 13. Climate Risk New and improved learning estate assets will directly contribute to the Council’s journey towards net zero. Sustainability is a key concept of all projects. 14. COSLA Policy Position None List of Background Papers - Document.ashx – Strategic Case For Change Documents for projects included in this report. Presented to the August 2025 Education and Children’s Services Policy Board Children’s Services JL/JO/GC Feb 2026 Author: Jack Lochans – Strategic Learning Estate Manager jack.lochans@renfrewshire.gov.uk
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1 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 2 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET Title: Johnstone Primary School Estate Version Number 2 Document Type: Outline Business Case Author: Learning Estate Project Team Date Published: 18/02/2026 Document Versions: Version: Name: Update: Date V0.1 Project Team Initial draft 28/11/25 V1 Project Team First draft for review 17/12/25 V1.1 Project Team Add site assessments and section 7 19/01/26 V1.2 Project Team Reworking Masterplan configuration and options 28/01/26 V1.3 Project Team Reworking section 3 and amends throughout for consistency 30/01/26 V1.4 Project Team Amendments and updates 11/02/26 V2 Project Team Final draft following review by Chief Officers 18/02/26 Supporting Documentation / Location: Document Title: Location: Strategic Case for Change Document.ashx
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 3 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................ 7 1.1. Introduction .......................................................................................... 7 1.2. Background ........................................................................................... 8 1.3. Opportunity ......................................................................................... 10 1.4. Scope and Objectives .......................................................................... 11 1.5. Summary of Routes Forward ............................................................... 12 1.6. Preferred Route Forward and Options Shortlist .................................. 12 1.7. Indicative Costs ................................................................................... 14 1.8. Timeline ............................................................................................... 15 2. STRATEGIC CASE .............................................................................. 16 2.1. Strategic Context ................................................................................. 16 2.2. The Need for Change ........................................................................... 17 2.3. Investment Objectives ......................................................................... 17 2.4. Existing Arrangements ......................................................................... 18 2.5. Initial Engagement .............................................................................. 21 2.6. Scope and Service Requirements ....................................................... 22 3. ECONOMIC CASE .............................................................................. 24
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 4 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.1. Potential Routes Forward.................................................................... 24 3.2. Preferred Route Forward ..................................................................... 30 3.3. Exploring Issues with the Johnstone Estate and Possible Solutions .. 32 3.4. Masterplan Redesign of Johnstone Learning Estate ........................... 38 3.4.1. Merge Thorn and Auchenlodment at a new build or modernised site (to be agreed), and merge catchments ............................................................................. 38 3.4.2. Merge Cochrane Castle and Fordbank located at the current Fordbank Primary School site, and merge catchments ........................................................... 40 3.4.3. Merge St Margaret’s and St David’s, located at the West Johnstone Joint Campus, and merge catchments. .......................................................................... 43 3.5. Early Years Provision ........................................................................... 46 3.6. Site Assessment Criteria – Replacing Auchenlodment & Thorn Primaries .......................................................................................................... 47 3.7. Site Options Assessment ..................................................................... 50 3.8. Shortlisted Options for new Thorn / Auchenlodment ......................... 66 3.9. Indicative Costs ................................................................................... 67 3.10. Transport Considerations ................................................................... 69 3.10.1. Merged Thorn and Auchenlodment ......................................................... 69 3.10.2. Merged Cochrane Castle and Fordbank .................................................. 70 3.10.3. Merged St Margaret’s and St David’s........................................................ 71
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 5 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.11. Timeline and Next Steps ..................................................................... 72 4. COMMERCIAL CASE .......................................................................... 73 4.1. Approach ............................................................................................. 73 4.2. Service Requirements ......................................................................... 73 4.3. Project Development .......................................................................... 73 5. FINANCIAL CASE ............................................................................... 75 5.1. Project Funding – Capital Expenditure ............................................... 75 5.2. Approvals Process ............................................................................... 75 5.3. Revenue Expenditure .......................................................................... 76 5.4. Indicative Costs ................................................................................... 77 5.5. Financial Risk / Optimism Bias ............................................................ 78 5.6. Interdependencies .............................................................................. 79 6. MANAGEMENT CASE ........................................................................ 80 6.1. Project Management and Project Governance Overview ................... 80 6.2. Project Roles ........................................................................................ 80 6.3. Reporting Arrangements ..................................................................... 81 6.4. Procurement Strategy ......................................................................... 84 6.5. Overall Project Benefits ....................................................................... 84
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 6 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 6.6. Community Benefits Realisation Arrangements ................................. 84 6.7. Risk Management Arrangements ........................................................ 85 6.8. Equalities and Human Rights .............................................................. 85 6.9. Communication, Engagement, and Community Voice....................... 85 7. CONCLUSION ................................................................................... 87 7.1. Summary of Shortlist of Options and Next Steps ................................ 87
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7 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1. Introduction This outline business case (OBC) is required as part of the Council’s new structured approach to delivering its long-term strategy for the learning estate across Renfrewshire. It builds on the context set out in a Strategic Case for Change (SCC) examining the provision of primary schools in Johnstone, which was approved in August 2025 at the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board (E&CS Policy Board). In the SCC, 6 of the 7 primary schools in Johnstone were assessed to be working well below optimal occupancy, with demand for places expected to stay the same or fall further in the coming years. Further, the condition and suitability of three primary schools was shown to be such that the schools feature in a priority cohort of Renfrewshire schools requiring intervention if they are to meet the ambitions and objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy. The purpose of this OBC is to articulate a preferred route forward for the project by identifying a shortlist of investment options likely to optimise value for money in delivering change. A longlist of options is presented as part of the OBC, along with analysis and rationale for their inclusion or exclusion from the shortlist. Additionally, further detail is provided in respect to how the scheme will be prepared for procurement and how the Council will put in place funding and management arrangements for the successful delivery of the scheme. The OBC uses the following framework to present the preferred way forward, utilising an adapted HM Treasury Green Book approach which is based on the 5 Case model: Strategic case – confirming that strategic objectives remain current and seek agreement on the recommendation Economic Case – helping to determine that the preferred way forward offers value for money Commercial Case – working towards a recommended deal by explaining potential delivery models, procurement and engagement
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 8 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Financial Case – establishing affordability and funding requirements Management Case – planning for successful delivery Table 1: Business case development process 1.2. Background The Learning Estate Strategy published by the Council in 2024, aims to initiate a strategic programme of investment in schools, through detailed assessment of the entire learning estate. The ambition of the investment programme is to ‘create the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive’. Schools were assessed against various criteria including condition, suitability for delivering the curriculum, capacity and demand. Using a prioritisation framework, the strategy assessed the entire learning estate, identifying those schools in need of long- term investment planning now, to ensure that the Council is best placed to: • Secure best value from strategic learning estate decisions around investment Stage: Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage Outcome: Strategic Outline Case Outline Business Case Full Business Case Final Delivery Business Case Stage Activities: • Highlighting strategic context • Making the case for change • Agreeing scope • Considering longlist options • Exploring the preferred way forward and presenting a shortlist • Determine potential value for money • Preparing for the potential deal • Planning for procurement • Procuring the solution • Contracting the deal • Ensuring successful delivery 5-Case Model (stage of completeness): • Strategic 50% • Economic 40% • Commercial 10% • Financial 10% • Management 10% • Strategic 80% • Economic 70% • Commercial 40% • Financial 30% • Management 50% • Strategic 90% • Economic 90% • Commercial 90% • Financial 75% • Management 75% • Strategic 100% • Economic 100% • Commercial 100% • Financial 100% • Management 100% Gateway Review: Strategic Assessment Business Justification Delivery Strategy Final Investment Decision and financial commitment
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 9 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Meet the expected long-term demand for education provision across Renfrewshire whilst delivering improvements in school buildings and learning environments • Ensure that the delivery of any new infrastructure complements other key strategic objectives being progressed by the Council to optimise the use of assets for communities and support wider redesign of services that better meet the needs of communities. A cohort of 13 priority schools was identified, including three primary schools in Johnstone - Auchenlodment, St Margeret’s and Thorn - where deteriorating building condition and building suitability hamper the Council’s ambition to deliver the curriculum in the best possible learning environments. The four remaining primary schools in Johnstone, these being Cochrane Castle and St David’s Primaries (currently accommodated at the West Johnstone Joint Campus) Fordbank Primary and St Anthony’s Primary, are all in good condition and provide good quality, suitable learning environments for pupils. However, it was agreed that these nearby schools would be taken into consideration, to examine whether existing capacity is well used and ensure that any Council investment would deliver value for money and benefit the whole community. As a result, a Strategic Case for Change was produced, to consider the context of key issues which, if not addressed, would limit the Council’s ability to deliver the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy. The document examined the operating context of the Johnstone primary learning estate with reference to these objectives: • Condition • Suitability • Sufficiency • Inclusivity • Digital • Sustainability and Net Zero • Community Facilities and Place shaping • Active Travel
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 10 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE The Strategic Case for Change articulates the current baseline position at each school and identifies areas where existing arrangements are failing to provide the best possible opportunity to support the Council in delivering against these objectives. The Johnstone area is noted as having a larger concentration of primary schools, and primary school places, than towns of smaller population in Renfrewshire. This geographical overprovision is borne out by roll projections produced for Renfrewshire Council, which confirm that capacity exceeds demand, and that demand is expected to fall further over the next ten years. This context was set against the ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy to test how likely the current schools are to meet its ambition of educating all pupils in the best possible learning environments. Following approval of the strategic case for change, significant work has been undertaken to identify options for change that meet the ambition and align with the critical success factors articulated in the documents. 1.3. Opportunity The opportunity to change and improve the provision of primary education in Johnstone aims to advance the objectives of Renfrewshire Council’s new Learning Estate Strategy, and to help meet the ambitions of wider Council and Scottish Government policies. Those ambitions, fully considered in the Strategic Case for Change, are summarised here: • Improving the condition of schools • Sustainability and Energy Efficiency • Equity and Inclusion • Adapting to Future Educational Needs • Community and Public Use • Strategic Planning and Investment • Collaborative Approach with Stakeholders The ambitions encompass Renfrewshire Council’s determination to invest wisely whilst reflecting the importance of operational efficiencies and cost avoidance in delivering the Learning Estate Strategy. Thus, careful consideration of how to bring change to Johnstone primary school estate, can additionally help increase building operational
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 11 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE efficiency through provision of improved, modern facilities. A new or refurbished school can deliver modern standards and design and contribute to the Council’s Net Zero commitments. Above all, this OBC sets out the opportunity for Renfrewshire Council to meet its overarching aim of ensuring that its schools are modern, accessible to all and support the delivery of high-quality education for learners. 1.4. Scope and Objectives The Strategic Case for Change set out five overarching investment objectives for primary school provision in Johnstone. Any investment in the learning estate must: • Deliver the best learning environments and facilities possible • Support improving attainment and ambition • Maximise operational efficiency across the estate • Reduce the contribution to the Council’s combined carbon footprint • Acknowledge that ageing schools with deteriorating conditions come closer to the point of being no longer fit for purpose Thus, primary school provision in Johnstone is noted as: • Having overall capacity which exceeds current and projected demand. • Including three schools where building condition and suitability hamper delivery of a modern curriculum and efforts to raise attainment. • Having three schools which require considerable on-going investment simply to maintain the status quo. • Featuring three schools which cannot contribute to Council’s net zero commitments in its current form. To meet these objectives and help deliver change, this OBC examines viable options for the delivery of: • A new two stream primary school to accommodate 434 pupils with consideration for an early-years facility. • Reconfigured catchments to address the current underutilisation of the existing high quality learning facilities in Johnstone.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 12 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 1.5. Summary of Routes Forward Possible options for the future of Johnstone Primary considered 4 potential routes forward against the requirements for change: 1 – Do Nothing 2 – Retrofit Auchenlodment, St Margaret’s and Thorn Primary Schools 3 – Rebuild Auchenlodment, St Margaret’s and Thorn Primary Schools 4 – Masterplan’ redesign of the primary school estate in Johnstone, reducing the number of schools in the estate, merge catchments to better use existing quality facilities, consider provision of a new combined school Analysis of the routes forward are presented in full in the Economic Case in Section 3. This was produced following the collation of background information included in the SCC, technical information, and analysis of the operating context of the Johnstone primary school estate, as well as engagement with school staff and parents. 1.6. Preferred Route Forward and Options Shortlist The preferred route forward for the project has been determined using the critical success factors identified in the SCC, to assess the viability of the various options under consideration. This identified that delivery of change for primary school provision in Johnstone was dependent on making the best use of existing good quality school buildings to adapt to demand and ensure optimal occupancy across all schools. The routes forward and options rationale are discussed in greater detail in Section 3, Economic Case, below, and this includes an overview of estimated costs for delivering the project. The preferred route forward was presented at an update to the ECSPB in October 2025, as follows: Route 4: Masterplan Redesign of the Primary School Estate in Johnstone Address the overprovision of primary school places in Johnstone and the requirements of the 3 priority schools of Thorn, Auchenlodment, and St Margaret’s, by:
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 13 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Making best use of capacity of existing high-quality buildings including St Anthony’s, West Johnstone Joint Campus, and Fordbank. • Considering the location of any new build school facility that would look to combine more than one existing school on the same site • Considering the most appropriate catchment area configurations to support efficiency and capacity. Section 3 of this business case provides an analysis of the issues facing the Learning Estate in Johnstone and the potential solutions. Based on the multiple factors under consideration, it is recommended that the following options are taken forward for further detailed exploration at Full Business Case. a) Merge Thorn and Auchenlodment catchment areas, combining both non- denominational schools in a single modern building by one of the following means: 1. Site 01 - Retrofit and extend the existing Auchenlodment Primary School building to provide a modern 2 stream primary school with capacity for 434 pupils at Aspen Place, Johnstone 2. Site 01 – Construct a new build 2 stream primary school with capacity for 434 pupils at the existing Auchenlodment primary school site at Aspen Place, Johnstone 3. Site 04 - Construct a new build 2 stream primary school with capacity for 434 pupils, at the site of the existing Thorn Primary, Thorn Brae, Johnstone 4. Site 09 - Construct a new build 2 stream primary school with capacity for 434 pupils on a new Site at Poplar Avenue, Johnstone b) Merge Cochrane Castle and Fordbank catchment areas, combining both non- denominational schools at the current Fordbank Primary School site. c) Merge St Margaret’s and St David’s catchment areas, combining both denominational schools at the West Johnstone Joint Campus, creating a single denominational school. Note: St Anthony’s Primary is not affected by the proposed options as it is a high quality building operating at optimal capacity. Further detail is given in section 3.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 14 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 1.7. Indicative Costs To identify an indicative planning cost for delivering options associated with the preferred route forward, an exercise was conducted to consider the potential cost of delivering a school project at the identified planning scale (a two-stream primary school with early years provision, and additional community-use space). The site of the current Auchenlodment Primary School was used as an example for costing purposes, being a site wholly owned by the Council. The overall potential costs of a new primary school associated with the route forward are as follows: Cost scenario Range Retrofit Auchenlodment and extend, for 434 pupils and early-years facility matching current provision. £35 - £45m Build a 2-stream primary for 434 pupils, and early-years facility that matches current provision. £25 - £45m Table 2: Indicative costs The indicative costs above are provided for illustrative purposes only. Costs are subject to change depending on consultation, design changes, planning requirements and parameters, site locations and geotechnical site characterisation, procurement routes and other external factors. Further detail can be found within section 3.9 (Economic Case) and Section 5.4 (Financial Case) of this document.
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15 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 1.8. Timeline In 2025 a high-level summary of the timeline for completing this business case process was outlined, as shown below. This timeline is explained in more detail in section 3 of this document to show a potential route to construction.
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16 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 2. STRATEGIC CASE 2.1. Strategic Context In August 2025, a business case presented to E&CS Policy Board set out the strategic case for change to primary school provision in Johnstone. The paper outlined the background and context, highlighting links to local and national strategies for education, including Renfrewshire Council’s Learning Estate Strategy and Fairer Renfrewshire policy, and Scottish Government’s National Learning Estate Strategy. The strategic objective for this project is to ensure delivery of the best quality learning environments for primary pupils in Johnstone whilst ensuring that capacity matches demand for school places, both now and in the future. This OBC takes that initial case for change and begins the process of identifying options for change in response to the needs and drivers identified. The policy background is summarised below. • Renfrewshire Council Learning Estate Strategy – a long-term structured approach to assessment of the learning estate through a prioritisation framework which identifies those areas of the estate most in need of investment. The strategy ensures careful planning to ensure that limited capital investment is directed where it will have the greatest impact through reshaping, refurbishing or replacing existing facilities. • Scottish Government’s National Learning Estate Strategy – reflecting the ambition of the Scottish Attainment Challenge, which promotes equity in access to quality education facilities as part of a drive to tackle the poverty related attainment gap and promote inclusivity. • Fairer Renfrewshire – recognising the role of the learning estate in reducing inequalities and improving the life chances of pupils across Renfrewshire • Strategic Planning and Investment – recognising the long-term nature of the strategy for the learning estate, with a clear framework which identifies those schools that require replacement, refurbishment or upgrading • Strategic Property Strategy – seeks to ensure that Renfrewshire Council’s property estate is strategically located and used to its fullest potential, complementing existing facilities and services wherever possible.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 17 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 2.2. The Need for Change As articulated in the Strategic Case for Change document which preceded this business case, there is a clear and compelling case for introducing change to primary school provision in Johnstone, as highlighted by a combination of factors, including: • Overprovision of primary school places – Johnstone primary schools have a current planning capacity of 1,841 pupils, with demand for 1,259 places (68% of capacity) • Condition and Suitability – As identified in the Learning Estate priority matrix, Auchenlodment, St Margaret’s and Thorn suffer from a mixture of poor condition and poor suitability, challenging the ambition to ensure all pupils have access to modern, accessible and good-quality learning environments • Opportunity to maximise operational efficiency – Provision of a school built to modern teaching and building standards will help increase building operational efficiency by replacing ageing facilities which cannot meet modern building performance standards. 2.3. Investment Objectives The following objectives have been identified as key to improving primary school provision in Johnstone and aligning with the ambitions of the Learning Estate Strategy: • Effectiveness – Meet the aims of the Council’s Learning Estate Strategy to initiate a strategic programme of investment in schools; Ensure that every school is considered in terms of Scottish Government Core Facts reporting criteria; Deliver the best learning environments and facilities possible, exceeding, where able, Scottish Government recommendations. • Efficiency – Provision of modern learning environments to support improving attainment for pupils in Renfrewshire. • Economy – Optimise operating costs for the estate through the creation of buildings which are more energy efficient and through operation of a more efficient overall school estate; Offer a reduction in the costs incurred maintaining ageing buildings; Operation of buildings of a size suited to current and projected school rolls. • Compliance – Careful planning for the replacement or refurbishment of schools to lessen the impact from older buildings and make a valuable contribution to
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 18 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Renfrewshire Council’s net zero commitments through the operation of more efficient buildings. • Replacement – The project acknowledges that as buildings age and maintenance costs increase, they come closer to the point of being no longer fit for purpose as a Council asset. 2.4. Existing Arrangements A comprehensive overview of each primary school in Johnstone featured in the Strategic Case for Change and a link is available at the beginning of this report under ‘Supporting Documentation’. The key facts relating to the operation of primary schools in Johnstone are outlined in the following tables and narrative. There are seven primary schools, four non-denominational and three denominational, presenting a range of condition and age. Two of the primary schools form a joint campus and are among the three schools built and maintained under public-private partnership (PPP) in 2007; Four have early learning and childcare provision (ELCC) on- site. Additionally, Johnstone has a standalone ELCC establishment. Two primary schools feature a flexible learning resource (FLR), catering to pupils with additional support needs (ASN) who do not attend either of Renfrewshire’s dedicated ASN schools. Whilst this Outline Business Case focuses on primary school provision in the Johnstone catchment, it recognises that changes to the primary estate will also affect Early Years provision. This is especially relevant where Early Years facilities are located within priority primary school sites, such as St Margaret’s and Auchenlodment. The full implications for Early Years provision will be assessed at the Full Business Case stage. This will ensure that Early Years facilities remain consistent, appropriate, and aligned with the Council’s learning estate strategy while improving the overall learning environment. The current planning capacity for Johnstone’s primary schools is 1,841 pupils (1143 or 57% non-denominational, 758 or 43% denominational). As of November 2025, Children’s Services report that the current roll across all seven schools amounts to 1,218 pupils (689 non-denominational, 529 denominational). Therefore, it can be seen that between them, Johnstone primary schools have 623 unfilled places, or in percentage terms, can be seen as working at 66% of capacity. 57% of the current roll attend non-denominational schools, 43% attend denominational schools.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 19 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Key facts and operating costs for Johnstone Primary School Estate are as follows: Table 3: Capacity and Roll Information The following tables sum up key facts and operating costs for primary schools in Johnstone. School Age Suitability Condition ELC FLR Auchenlodment 64 B C Y N Fordbank* 17 A B N Y St Anthony’s 57 B A Y Y St Margaret's 65 B B Y N Thorn 36 C C N N WJJC* 17 A B Y N *PPP schools Table 4 – Johnstone Primary Schools Key Facts School Capacity Current Roll 2029/30* 2033/34* 2037/38* Auchenlodment 302 207 (68.5%) 262 (87%) 272 (90%) 270 (89%) Cochrane Castle 189 103 (54%) 98 (52%) 115 (61%) 109 (58%) Fordbank 345 245 (71%) 218 (63%) 194 (56%) 185 (54%) St Anthony’s 302 280 (93%) 286 (94%) 270 (89%) 257 (85%) St David’s 189 81 (43%) 87 (46%) 109 (57%) 104 (55%) St Margaret's 272 165 (61%) 155 (57%) 156 (57%) 147 (54%) Thorn 272 134 (49%) 103 (38%) 90 (33%) 83 (31%)
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 20 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE School Utilities Hard & Soft FM Teaching Non- Teaching* Other^ Rates Total Auchenlodment £85,022 £247,491 £881,220 £450,653 £7,353 £40,800 £1,712,539 Fordbank £81,499 £1,339,512 £1,394,733 £187,256 £96,000 £3,099,000 St Anthony’s £84,024 £291,433 £1,508,912 £269,934 £74,832 £60,360 £2,294,495 St Margaret’s £30,933 £155,202 £749,005 £667,418 £43,293 £36,000 £1,684,276 Thorn £51,237 £127,568 £744,555 £74,749 £10,888 £25,920 £1,632,586 WJJC £112,838 £2,352,296 £1,320,359 £160,724 £129,600 £4,075,817 *includes ELC where present ^Waste; Grounds Maintenance; Transport; School Crossing Patrollers £14,498,713 Table 5: Overview of Operating Costs School Teaching Non-Teaching Total Cochrane Castle £759,659 £81,960 £841,649 St David’s £560,700 £639,464 £639,464 ELCC 0 £882,879 £882,879 Table 6: WJJC Staff Costs Breakdown
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 21 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Primary School No. of Pupils Cost Auchenlodment 0 0 Cochrane Castle 0 0 Fordbank 0 0 St Anthony’s 75 £62,912 St David’s 0 0 St Margaret’s 10 £28,425 Thorn 0 0 Total: 104 £91,337 Table 7: School Transport Costs by School 2.5. Initial Engagement Following presentation of the Strategic Case for Change to E&CS Policy Board in August 2025, officers undertook initial community and stakeholder engagement, outlining the processes involved in identifying opportunities to deliver change. A survey was issued to parents and carers, members of the community, and all school staff at primary schools in Johnstone, inviting views around current school provision, including school condition, location of facilities and what stakeholders feel should be important to the Council in progressing future school investment. Analysis of responses from parents, carers and the wider community identified the following key themes and discussion points: • Building Maintenance and Facilities – The need for modern, well maintained school building and improved sports infrastructure. • Playground and Outdoor Spaces – An emphasis on the importance of well- maintained playgrounds and outdoor learning spaces that encourage physical activity and wellbeing.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 22 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Accessibility and Inclusivity – The importance of inclusive environments that support children with additional needs and ensure accessibility for all. • Safety and Traffic Concerns – Safety during school drop-off and pick-up, especially regarding traffic congestion and unsafe parking near schools. Responses from school staff highlighted recommendations based on similar themes: • Invest in modernising outdated buildings and facilities • Improve outdoor learning and play areas with better drainage and equipment • Ensure adequate breakout spaces and sensory room for pupils with additional needs • Enhance heating, ventilation and lighting systems • Provide secure and accessible drop-off/pick-up zones • Engage staff and community in future planning and design decisions Both parents and staff identified strong appreciation for the modern, bright, and accessible facilities at Fordbank PS and St Anthony’s PS, reinforcing a clear link between building quality and positive user experience. Across the estate, stakeholders consistently emphasised the need for improved outdoor provision, including resurfaced playgrounds, safer active travel routes, better sports facilities, and sheltered all weather learning spaces. Families also stressed the importance of inclusive environments, highlighting a growing need for sensory spaces, regulation areas, and dedicated support provision for neurodivergent and ASN pupils. Staff reinforced this, calling for well-designed classroom layouts (avoiding open plan), breakout spaces, and modernised infrastructure to support learning, wellbeing, and behaviour regulation. 2.6. Scope and Service Requirements The scope of this proposal for change is to configure primary school provision in Johnstone in line with the strategic objectives set out and agreed in the Strategic Case for Change and informed by an understanding of the operating context at each primary school. Potential routes forward were set out in an interim update to E&CS Policy Board in October 2025, based on the broad range of options outlined in the Economic Case, below. The potential routes are summarised here:
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 23 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Route 1 Route 2 Route 3 Route 4 Do nothing – continue to operate primary schools in Johnstone as they currently are Retrofit/Refurbish Auchenlodment, St Margaret’s and Thorn primary schools Rebuild Auchenlodment, St Margaret’s and Thorn primary schools on their current sites ‘Masterplan’ redesign of the primary school estate in Johnstone, reducing the number of schools in the estate, merge catchments to better use existing quality facilities, consider provision of a new combined school Table 8: Potential Routes Forward
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 24 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3. ECONOMIC CASE 3.1. Potential Routes Forward Each of the routes forward has now been subject to an assessment process to identify their broad advantages and disadvantages, to better assess the overall merits of each option. This process allows for the identification of recommended viable routes to be progressed in more detail to establish a long list of options to be considered. In the case of Johnstone Primaries, the analysis outlined below identifies there is only a single recommended viable route forward from which a long list of potential options has been identified. The recommended route forward is: Route 4: Masterplan redesign of the Primary School Estate in Johnstone The routes forward are examined in detail below. Route 1: Do nothing Continue to operate all primary schools in Johnstone as they currently are with minimal wind and watertight investment. This includes: Auchenlodment, St Margaret’s and Thorn Primary Schools which have been identified as priorities for investment, as well St Anthony’s, St David’s, Cochrane Castle, and Fordbank Primary Schools. Main Advantages: Value for money • Lower capital outlay required, albeit significant future capital outlay will still be required on building maintenance to secure long term wind and watertight condition, and to support net zero transition, none of which would support improvement to configuration or suitability for delivering the curriculum. Main Disadvantages: Strategic Fit • Does not achieve ambition of Learning Estate Strategy with regards to condition or suitability of schools. • Underestimates the challenges posed by the current condition and layout of the school buildings and the challenge of improving the learning environments. • Although St Margaret’s predates minimum space requirements under School Premises (General Requirements and Standards) (Scotland) Act 1967, and BB103
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 25 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Area Guidelines for Mainstream Schools, it should be stressed that the site is severely constrained, with little usable outdoor space and the school would not be built to its current size and extent if planned now. • No benefit to the wider community can be derived from this option. Value for Money • Will create an additional burden on the ongoing maintenance required of these buildings which will have limited long term life given their age. In addition, further investment would be required to support long term net zero ambitions. • Schools in Johnstone will continue to operate below optimal occupancy offering poor value for money in the long term. • This option would continue to see a very high standard of PPP school estate in Johnstone underutilised, with significant financial outgoings associated with the ongoing operation of these schools. Conclusions: This option would bring no benefit to the school or wider community and would not serve to improve the education experience of anyone involved and is likely to provide poor long term value for money given the age and condition of the existing school. The primary school estate in Johnstone would continue to operate at inefficient levels, with roll projections showing a further decline is to be expected across the area. With regards to the PPP estate (Fordbank, Cochrane Caste, and St David’s – significant financial outlay is required each year to operate these, and this option would not work to make best use of these very high standard buildings. With the disadvantages outlined above, this is not considered a viable option and will be discounted as a route forward. Route 2: Retrofit Priority Schools in Johnstone Carry out a comprehensive retrofit of the current buildings of Auchenlodment, St Margaret’s and Thorn primary schools to bring them up to Net Zero Public Sector Building Standards (NZPSBS) or better, whilst improving the overall condition and suitability of the environments. Main Advantages: Strategic Fit • Contributes towards net zero ambitions through retention of embodied carbon and improvements in energy consumption. • Will allow buildings to be fully reconsidered to improve both condition and suitability.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 26 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Value for Money • Subject to detailed costing it may involve a lower capital outlay, although this would require detailed analysis particularly given the dual costs of normal wholescale refurbishment coupled with net zero retrofit requirements. • Greater operational efficiency from a more energy efficient building Main Disadvantages Strategic Fit • Improvements to the site and external learning will be limited as any improvements need to work with and around the existing site. • This option to retrofit would not address the over-provision of school capacity in Johnstone and would result in the school capacity in operation with a declining population. • Although St Margaret’s predates minimum space requirements under School Premises (General Requirements and Standards) (Scotland) Act 1967, and BB103 Area Guidelines for Mainstream Schools, please note that the site is severely constrained, with little usable outdoor space; school would not be built to its current size and extent if planned now. Value for Money • A net zero retrofit is a complex and demanding project requiring careful planning and execution. although initial capital costs may be less in comparison to an equivalent new-build, the costs will still be significant and the overall remaining life of a refurbished building is likely to be less than a new build placing a level of constraint on the long term value for money assessment. Affordability • The full extent of work required, and therefore cost, may only become fully apparent as areas of the internal fabric of the building are exposed and a full understanding of the buildings condition is apparent. This could result in the divergence between refurbishment cost and new build cost being marginal and ultimately impacting negatively on the whole life value for money appraisal. Achievability • This option would involve significant disruption to the Johnstone primary school estate with decants required for all schools during the extent of the works, or for a very elongated and costly route to construction by working around current building users. Conclusions: This option is more attractive in terms of making the most of existing assets, retaining embodied carbon and addressing Council commitments on net zero. However, the option would fail to address the challenges around under capacity in the wider Johnstone school estate, and would present a missed opportunity to deliver long term improvement in the learning estate for the community. Additionally, although there may be the potential for a degree of short term affordability benefits, there is significant uncertainty as to whether it would necessarily provide long term value for money and it would also be highly disruptive to the school existing school community during the construction period.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 27 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Further, it is noted that St Margaret’s Primary School does not meet current minimum space requirements as per legislation, and would therefore be questionable as to why a significant investment in such a school would be taken forward given it is too small for modern standards. On this overall basis, this option should not be considered as a viable route forward. Route 3: New Build Schools for all identified Priority Schools Rebuild Thorn, Auchenlodment and St Margaret’s primary schools on their current sites, to an appropriate reduced capacity, to continue as standalone primary schools. Retain St David’s, Cochrane Castle, Fordbank and St Anthony’s primary schools as they are now. Main Advantages: Strategic Fit • This would deliver a new schools built to modern educational and building standards, of a size that allows for optimal occupancy and deliver assets with the longest potential operational life. • It would directly contribute towards net zero ambitions through provision of new schools built to NZPBS standard or better. Value for Money • Creation of buildings with modern heating and power systems will greatly improve operational efficiency and new build provides the opportunity to secure learning facilities with the maximum future life to support long term value for money benefits. Main Disadvantages: Strategic Fit • Provision of 3 new schools and disposal of their predecessors may not be as sustainable as retrofitting current structures. However, it is recognised that new buildings would be designed and constructed in a manner that significantly contributes to the net zero plan with energy efficiency at the forefront. It is also possible that material from demolished buildings could be used on new sites as in fill or for levelling land. • Constructing three new schools would not address the ongoing over provision of school places in Johnstone. To be able to deliver schools to ‘optimal capacity’ would require all three new build schools to be
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 28 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE smaller than a single stream primary school (i.e. a school with 1 class from primary 1 to primary 7 which equals a capacity of 217 places). Roll projections show that all three schools are expected to fall well below this figure of 217 therefore to build these schools at an ‘optimal’ capacity would require very small schools with combined year groups in less than 7 classes. This would be a significantly limiting factor for schools in such a tight urban geography. • A new build project on the existing St. Margaret’s site would not meet minimum space requirements under School Premises (General Requirements and Standards) (Scotland) Act 1967, or BB103 Area Guidelines for Mainstream Schools, and is therefore not a viable option – a new site would be required. Value for Money • Existing high-quality facilities at the West Johnstone Joint Campus, and Fordbank, would remain underutilised, operating below optimal capacity, therefore presenting poor value for money from the significant financial outlay on PPP contracts. Affordability • This option would require considerable capital investment for single- stream schools and would not offer best value for money given current and projected demand across Johnstone as a whole and the wider commitments of the Learning Estate Strategy. • The investment required would limit council’s readiness to address other priority schools identified through the learning estate strategy Achievability • This option would involve significant disruption to the Johnstone primary school estate with decants required for all schools during the extent of the works. Conclusions: Providing a new build property for each of the schools would require a significant capital cost and would leave existing high-quality facilities underutilised and operating below optimal occupancy levels, with continued excess capacity across the whole Johnstone Primary School Estate. Committing to the replacement of three existing primary schools in like-for-like fashion may impact Renfrewshire Council’s ability to maintain the necessary pace of investment in the Learning Estate Strategy. This route would require new schools to be very small which will not provide best value with such close proximities of schools. Further, with St Margaret’s site not meeting modern minimum space requirements, it would require a new site to be identified for a new build school. This option should not be considered as a viable route forward. Route 4: Masterplan redesign of the Primary School Estate in Johnstone
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 29 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE This option would see the development of a wider master plan review and associated proposals that would deliver a reduced number of establishments and right-sized overall school capacity across Johnstone This masterplan approach would secure the ambition of accommodating all primary school children in Johnstone in good quality school accommodation, with high suitability for delivering the curriculum, that will sustainably meet the educational needs across Johnstone over the long term and support wider community needs. This option must consider the priority establishments that require intervention as part of the Learning Estate Strategy prioritisation matrix. These schools are Thorn, Auchenlodment, and St Margaret’s and options will consider: • Making best use of capacity of existing high-quality buildings including St Anthony’s, West Johnstone Joint Campus, and Fordbank. • Consider the location of any proposed new build school facility that would look to combine more than one existing school on the same site • Consider the most appropriate catchment area configurations to support overall efficiency and capacity to support the delivery of the best educational outcomes. Main Advantages: Strategic Fit • Ensures that every pupil in Johnstone will be educated in modern, high- quality condition schools. • Meets the requirements of Renfrewshire Council’s vision for education and the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy • Contributes towards net zero ambitions through provision of a new school built to NZPBS standard or better, with significant improvements in energy consumption to the existing schools. • Ensures all schools can work at optimal occupancy, reflecting changing school rolls and demand. • The sale of disused sites could bring capital receipts to the council. Value for Money • Makes the most of existing high condition facilities including PPP estate which attracts a high financial output each year to operate, offering better value for money from the learning estate in Johnstone • Offers opportunities to improve Early Years and additional support needs provision in Johnstone through better use of existing space. • Greater operational efficiency from a more energy efficient building of a size that allows for optimal occupancy Affordability • Appropriate levels of capital spend required through the provision of a whole area master planned new build option, and making better use of existing high-quality assets provides the best opportunity to strategically develop and identify the most effective solution to meet the
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 30 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE long term needs of Johnstone in a manner that consider need across the whole geography and will minimise unnecessary spend. Main Disadvantages: Achievability • Potential need to decant pupils during new build element if a current school site was selected, could bring disruption during this period, albeit the scale of disruption of this option is significantly lower than alternative options presented. • Proposals to merge schools and or catchments areas present concerns linked to the expectations and aspirations of parts of the school community. Conclusions: This holistic master planned option provides the opportunity to identify a more efficient use of existing quality learning environments, whilst addressing overprovision of capacity in Johnstone as a whole. The implementation of a new build school option to accommodate more than one existing school will also directly support addressing all objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy and works to significantly improve the experience of all users of current poor condition buildings. This option would see current high-quality buildings utilised in an efficient way, making best use of the assets, and ultimately will work to ensure that every primary pupil in Johnstone is educated in a high- quality building, suitable for delivering the modern curriculum. This option and specific configurations within it should be further considered in the OBC process as the preferred route forward. 3.2. Preferred Route Forward A qualitative assessment of the potential routes has provided commentary on their practicality, adaptability and desirability, aligned to the critical success factors outlined in the Strategic Case for Change. This identified those that do not offer a viable means of delivering the required change and confirmed a preferred way forward for the project: Route 4: Masterplan Redesign of the Primary School Estate in Johnstone
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 31 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Address the overprovision of primary school places in Johnstone and the requirements of the 3 priority schools of Thorn, Auchenlodment, and St Margaret’s, by: • Making best use of capacity of existing high-quality buildings including St Anthony’s, West Johnstone Joint Campus, and Fordbank. • Considering the location of any new build school facility that would look to combine more than one existing school on the same site • Considering the most appropriate catchment area configurations to support efficiency and capacity. This route forward was recommended and agreed following an update to the ECSPB in October 2025. One of the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy is to have Renfrewshire schools, where possible, operating at between 80-95% of capacity. As noted in the assessment of the option to retrofit all priority schools, this would not address capacity and would leave the same number of schools in the town in very close proximity operating significantly under capacity and would require vast capital outlay. The question can therefore be asked as to why the option to rebuild all priority schools as new, smaller schools, is not viable. The reason for this is that by building schools to a smaller size to match projected future rolls, which are largely expected to continue to drop, and have these schools working to ‘optimal capacity’ the size of schools would require to be very small. In some cases, smaller than a single stream primary school (i.e. a school with a single P1-P7 class, per year). To be working efficiently against capacity in this scenario, schools would need to be built with classes working in combined year groups in the same classroom. This would be a significant limiting factor for schools in such a tight urban setting. By way of an example, Thorn Primary School projected school roll is expected to drop as low as 82 pupils. A new build school for less than 100 pupils in a populated core town of Renfrewshire, costing multiple millions of pounds, could not be justified as best value considering there are currently 7 primary schools operating in the area. This confirms that there is a compelling case to focus attention on options within Route 4 – Masterplan redesign of the primary estate in Johnstone.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 32 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.3. Exploring Issues with the Johnstone Estate and Possible Solutions When redesigning the Johnstone Primary Estate, it is essential to consider the following elements holistically, as any change to school building condition, locations, catchments and pupil rolls may have an impact elsewhere: • Making best use of capacity at existing high-quality buildings including St Anthony’s, West Johnstone Joint Campus, and Fordbank. • Considering the location of any new build school facility that would look to combine more than one existing school on the same site • Considering the most appropriate catchment area configurations to support efficiency and capacity. Current School Estate To address the issues facing the Johnstone school estate and identify options from the preferred route forward, it is important to consider the current location and makeup of the primary schools in Johnstone. Of the six primary school buildings in Johnstone, highlighted on the map below, it can be seen that the existing modern and high quality school buildings are clustered to the centre/south-west of the town. These comprise of 2 non-denominational, and 2 denominational schools - St Anthony’s and St David’s primary schools, and Cochrane Castle and Fordbank. Cochrane Castle and St David’s Primaries share the modern West Johnstone Joint Campus. The three priority school buildings, identified through the Learning Estate Strategy all lie to the north and east of Johnstone - Auchenlodment, Thorn and St Margaret’s. This strongly indicates that any new build facility should be located to the north or east of the town to address the need for a modern facility in this area of Johnstone and avoid over concentration of the majority of primary schools to the south and west of the town.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 33 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Map 1:Existing School Locations The second factor to consider is the current catchment areas of primary schools in Johnstone which is detailed below: Non-Denominational Catchment Areas The maps below show the current catchment areas and concentration of those who attend both Auchenlodment and Thorn Primaries in relation to the location of the schools. Current high quality school building School building on priority list
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 34 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Map 2: Pupil concentrations - Thorn Primary School Map 3: Pupil concentrations - Auchenlodment Primary School
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 35 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE The maps illustrate that the catchments of Thorn and Auchenlodment Primary Schools are adjoining, with the majority of pupil draw residing within the catchment areas. Both schools are at the eastern extremity of Johnstone, supporting the proposal that any potential new school facility to replace these priority schools should be located within the current catchment area. Denominational Catchment Areas The map below shows the current catchment area for St Margaret’s Primary, and the concentration of pupils who attend the school. Map 4: Pupil concentrations – St Margaret’s Primary School In line with the majority of denominational schools in the authority, the catchment area serves a wide geographical area. St Margaret’s catchment is particularly large as it includes a rural area with fewer residences. However, as illustrated in Map 4, above, the majority of the pupil draw for St Margaret’s, whilst towards the centre and east of the town, is adjacent to the St David’s catchment area and close to St David’s primary itself.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 36 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Reflecting that the centre and south-west of Johnstone is already served by four modern, high quality schools, and none of the priority schools to be addressed through investment are in this area, it would not be considered appropriate for any option of a further new build facility to be located in this geographical area of the town. Therefore, it is recommended that any new build school to be constructed as part of the route forward, should serve the north and east of the town. This approach will also better serve the wider Johnstone community by avoiding an over concentration of school buildings, which are core community assets, in the centre or southwest of the town. Taking account of these factors, this presents two possibilities for the new build element of this masterplan route forward : a) A single new build joint campus for denominational and non-denominational provision for the catchments of St Margaret’s, Thorn, and Auchenlodment primary schools, clearly distinguishing the different non-denominational/denominational schools with their own identity (on a site to be determined) b) A single new build non-denominational school for Thorn and Auchenlodment Primary School catchment areas, on a site to be determined (see section 3.6) Considering a) above, moving St Margaret’s catchment to a new build joint campus school would not address the overarching principles; of making best use of current existing modern, high quality schools. At present the St Margarets catchment area borders other denominational primary schools housed in high quality modern facilities, which are currently operating significantly below capacity. Therefore, it is recommended to further investigate options for a single new build non- denominational school for Thorn and Auchenlodment Primary School catchment areas only. This recommendation addresses the issue of the non-denominational Thorn and Auchenlodment buildings. In this context, St Margarets remains a high priority school that requires attention. However, analysis clearly demonstrates this priority can be addressed without the need for provision of a new or refurbished building given the St Margaret’s catchment borders that of St David’s, located at the West Johnstone Joint (WJJC) campus.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 37 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE St David’s is a high quality modern teaching environment however it is operating at only 43% of capacity. To address the issue of undercapacity at St Davids and the WJJC as a whole, it is possible to merge St Margaret’s Primary with St David’s Primary at the West Johnstone Joint Campus, making better use of the high quality WJJC. The section of the WJJC currently occupied by St Davids Primary is not sufficient to accommodate both St Davids and St Margarets pupils together. The required capacity can however be achieved by moving the non-denominational cohort of Cochrane Castle out of the WJJC, allowing the WJJC to become a single denominational primary housing both St Margarets and St Davids Cohorts. This is the only denominational primary school building that is of high quality, with an adjoining catchment that can accommodate the St Margarets cohort. St Anthony’s Primary school building is condition A and is not on the priority list. The school has a capacity of 302 and with 280 pupils it is currently at 93% capacity. Projections show the school roll is expected to drop slightly in the next decade; however, capacity is projected to remain at above 85%. There is therefore no additional capacity that would allow any future relocation or merger within this existing facility. Another of the town’s newer, high quality schools, Fordbank Primary, in the southwest of Johnstone is currently operating at 70% of capacity, with this expected to drop to 56% by 2033-34. Given the very close proximity (0.7 mile) between Fordbank and Cochrane Castle (WJJC), and to make better use of the Fordbank school, it is recommended to merge Cochrane Castle with Fordbank primary housing both cohorts at the existing Fordbank Primary School Building. This has the added benefit of releasing space at the West Johnstone Joint Campus to accommodate a single denominational primary (as described above) and also leave additional space for further flexible use. Summary of analysis Based on this analysis of school locations, catchments, rolls and condition, officers from Education and Children’s Services and Technical Services, have concluded that the following 3 options should be explored in order to progress the masterplan reconfiguration of the Johnstone Learning Estate. These are: 1. Merge Auchenlodment and Thorn at a new-build or modernised site (to be agreed), and merge catchments.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 38 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 2. Merge Cochrane Castle and Fordbank, at the current Fordbank Primary School site, and merge catchments. 3. Merge St Margaret’s and St David’s at the West Johnstone Joint Campus, creating a single denominational school building, and merge catchments. The following section looks at each option in more detail. 3.4. Masterplan Redesign of Johnstone Learning Estate 3.4.1. Merge Thorn and Auchenlodment at a new build or modernised site (to be agreed), and merge catchments Both Auchenlodment and Thorn Primary Schools have been identified as part of the prioritisation list in the Learning Estate Strategy as both buildings are not viable in their current form for the future of education provision. A rationale has been provided as part of the assessment of the potential routes forward for why it is not appropriate to consider constructing two new replacement schools for these catchments. This option proposes to bring together both school catchments and merge the existing schools into a single non-denominational school. The key consideration as part of this option, is the size and location of the school to be constructed. Potential locations are set out with full analysis in following sections. To inform the potential size of the single school, the following information has been considered. Table 9: Auchenlodment and Thorn capacity and roll School Current Capacity Current Roll Projected Roll 2029/30* Projected Roll 2033/34* Projected Roll 2037/38* Auchenlodment 302 207 (68.5%) 262 (87%) 272 (90%) 270 (89%) Thorn 272 134 (49%) 103 (38%) 90 (33%) 83 (31%) Combined Totals 574 341 (59%) 365 (63% 362 (63%) 353 (61%)
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 39 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE The above information demonstrates that whilst the Auchenlodment school population is expected to grow reflecting the latest housing construction data that has been included, the overall picture for non-denominational school places in the east of the town of Johnstone between Thorn and Auchenlodment, is expected to continue to operate significantly below optimal capacity. It should also be recognised that currently there are over 40 pupils who attend Auchenlodment from out with the catchment through a placing request. Future projection figures take into account the same volume of placing requests continuing to be received for this school which contributes to a rising school roll. Whilst parental choice exists for placing a child in a school where a space exists, school planning, and admissions policies exist to protect this, where prioritisation should be given to those who live in the catchment. It is also widely recognised that schools should be built based on the most efficient size and scale to serve its defined catchment, and schools should not be built to an unnecessary oversized scale to accommodate historic placing request patterns. Analysis of current primary school makeup of the town of Johnstone illustrates, where schools are oversized for demand, this creates anomalies in catchment school attendance where over 30% of children do not attend their catchment school. In the instance above, when considering the size and scale of the new build non- denominational school for Johnstone, a definitive size will not be agreed until later stages of project design and agreement. However, for the purpose of site selection, and provisional analysis, all assumptions will be based on the following: • A ‘2-stream’ primary school which means a school that has two classes per year stage (i.e. P1a, P1b, P2a, P2b etc.) • An early years provision of at least the scale of the current provision in Auchenlodment Primary School. • Additional space to support community use, of which the use will be defined through project development and engagement. Based on this information and provisional ‘2-stream’ primary school scope, this would equate to 434 pupil places. This metric will be fully agreed as the project develops, as this would suggest circa 80 places in excess of the projected demand. Equally, it is fully recognised that contingency and flexibility are core elements of school planning, and the final size of the school development will be defined at a later stage.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 40 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.4.2. Merge Cochrane Castle and Fordbank located at the current Fordbank Primary School site, and merge catchments The second aspect of the masterplan reconfiguration promotes Cochrane Castle Primary School catchment merging with the Fordbank Primary School catchment. Fordbank and Cochrane Castle are existing non-denominational schools and ‘gate to gate’, each school sits in very close proximity at approximately 0.7 miles from each other. The catchment areas border each other and are illustrated below: Map 5: Fordbank and Cochrane Castle Catchments
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 41 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE In considering the relocation of Cochrane Castle pupils, to Fordbank, current pupil residences were considered, as illustrated below. A significant portion of the school population resides in close proximity to Fordbank, and the distance between each school is largely insignificant in terms of distance compared to pupil residences: Map 6: Pupil concentrations – Cochrane Castle Should catchment areas be merged, relocating Cochrane Castle to Fordbank, a revised catchment area would be required, as illustrated below, with the dashed line representing the current boundary between school catchments.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 42 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Map 7: Meged catchment for Fordbank and Cochrane Castle Whilst proximity of schools and catchment areas is shown to be supportive of this proposed change, the most important factor thereafter is the size and scale of the revised Fordbank Primary school roll by accommodating Cochrane Castle school catchment. The following table indicates the forecasted pupil projections for both schools, and their combined total: Table 10: Cochrane Castle Fordbank capacity and roll School Current Capacity Current Roll Projected Roll 2029/30* Projected Roll 2033/34* Projected Roll 2037/38* Cochrane Castle 189 103 98 115 109 Fordbank 345 245 218 194 185 Combined Totals 345 348 (100%) 316 (91%) 309 (89%) 294 (85%)
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 43 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE This information shows that currently, combining both schools with no intervention, Fordbank would be at, or slightly in excess of 100% capacity based on the current school rolls. There are however multiple factors that would support this move, as follows: • The timing of any change would be subject to full statutory consultation and conclusion of the business case process, meaning no change will take place imminently. As time progresses, the school roll of both schools is expected to drop which would help facilitate any change and as demonstrated above, the projected roll suggests that the over the next 5-10 years the school capacity will move towards the optimal 85% position. • Catchment areas would be fully reviewed and proposed as part of the next stage (Full Business Case) and it could be possible to make minor adjustments to the catchment boundary that sits on the eastern edge of the town, prior to any proposal of it becoming the catchment of the new non-denominational primary school (currently Thorn and Auchenlodment Primary School). A section of this catchment area could be repurposed to be part of the new build school catchment, creating a better and more efficient balance between both schools, and reducing the demand on Fordbank. • Currently Fordbank Primary School capacity does not account for three full size class bases that accommodate a Flexible Learning Resource (FLR) for pupils with additional support needs. It would be possible to relocate this provision to the West Johnstone Joint Campus, which, as analysis shows, would have adequate surplus capacity even when considering the proposed merging of both denominational schools (St Margaret’s and St David’s). These factors will be fully explored as the business case process continues, however they highlight that multiple avenues of flexibility exist to support this proposal, and it is a viable masterplan option. 3.4.3. Merge St Margaret’s and St David’s, located at the West Johnstone Joint Campus, and merge catchments. The third aspect of the masterplan reconfiguration would follow on the merging of Cochrane Castle Primary School catchment with Fordbank Primary School, allowing West Johnstone Joint Campus, which houses St David’s Primary School, to become a single denominational school. This would subsequently allow the catchment of St
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 44 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Margaret’s to merge with St David’s and be placed at the current St David’s Primary School building. St Margaret’s and St David’s are existing denominational schools and again are in very close proximity to each other. ‘Gate to gate’, each school sits approximately 0.6 miles apart . The current catchment areas border each other and are illustrated below: Map 8: St Margarets and St Davids Catchment areas In considering the relocation of St Margaret’s pupils to St David’s, the current pupil draw for St Margaret’s Primary School has been considered, shown below. The proximity of the schools is marked. Given the location of pupil residences, this change would not impact the vast majority of pupils. Additionally, a significant portion of pupils who attend St Margaret’s do not live within the catchment of the school, living within the St David’s or St Anthony’s catchment areas.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 45 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Map 9: St Margaret’s catchment area Should a merged catchment be progressed, to relocate St Margaret’s, a revised catchment area for St David’s Primary School would be required, which would look as follows, with the dashed line representing the current boundary of catchment between schools, that would be removed: Map 10: Merged catchment St Margaret’s and St David’s
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 46 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Whilst proximity of schools and catchment areas is shown to be supportive of this proposed change, the most important factor thereafter is the size and scale of the revised St David’s Primary school roll in accommodating St Margaret’s school catchment. The following figures represent the forecasted pupil projections of both schools, and what these would look like combined: Table 11: St Davids and St Margarets capacity and roll The above information shows that, should Cochrane relocate to Fordbank Primary School, the remaining capacity at West Johnstone Joint Campus would double to 378. These figures indicate that St Margaret’s could be comfortably merged with St David’s today and still be significantly under current capacity. This additional space also offers further flexibility in the overall masterplan consideration. As noted in Fordbank appraisal above, it would be possible to relocate the existing FLR resource from Fordbank to St David’s, to utilise excess space, and support accommodating Cochrane Castle to Fordbank. Additionally, a move of the FLR to the WJJC would allow for an expansion of the FLR resource to meet any increase in demand. 3.5. Early Years Provision Whilst this Outline Business Case focuses on primary school provision across the Johnstone area catchments, it is acknowledged that any proposed changes to the existing Primary School learning estate will have an impact on the Early Years provision across the catchment. This will be of particular significance where provision forms part School Current Capacity Current Roll Projected Roll 2029/30* Projected Roll 2033/34* Projected Roll 2037/38* St David’s 189 81 87 109 104 St Margaret's N/A 165 155 156 147 Combined Totals 189 + 189 of vacant Cochrane Castle capacity = 378 246 (65%) 242 (64%) 265 (70%) 251 (66%)
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 47 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE of existing primary school sites which are listed as priority schools for investment. In this case the existing St Margarets and Auchenlodment Primary Schools have dedicated Early Years facilities on site. The impacts on Early Years provision across the Johnstone area will be considered in full at the Full Business Case Stage for the Johnstone Primary Schools. This will ensure that provision of Early Years facilities remains consistent and appropriate whilst delivering the aspirational outcomes of the Council’s learning estate strategy, creating the best learning environments and facilities possible for both the Primary Schools and Early Years provision across the Estate. The above measures will be fully explored as the business case process continues, however it confirms that it is a viable masterplan proposal. 3.6. Site Assessment Criteria – Replacing Auchenlodment & Thorn Primaries The preferred route forward indicates that viable options are dependent on identification of a suitable site for the creation of a new school building for Auchenlodment and Thorn. To identify potentially viable sites, a list of site assessment criteria has been derived by considering core legislative, policy, and technical considerations. A long list of potential site options has been assessed to identify sites that present potential viability and warrant further investigation and feasibility assessment. Note that this stage of the process is a broad pass / fail assessment of long list options for viability purposes and is not a weighted scored assessment. A more detailed assessment approach of this nature will form part of the next stage of the business case process. The assessment criteria utilised are as follows: Ownership Sites wholly within the ownership of Renfrewshire Council will be prioritised over those owned by others recognising this provides greater certainty of site deliverability. Consideration will be given to brown field sites where remediation and use will be of benefit to the community, or where sites can provide for the retention and or improvement of community facilities, amenities or green spaces. Site size/area Sites will be assessed against the median area requirements set out in BB103 as sufficient for a school of the following size and description:
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 48 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE a) Accommodate a primary school of 434 pupils + early years facility and additional community space, equating to 18,973m2 Active Travel A review of sites in relation to their potential to support Active Travel, proximity to public transport, road networks, cycling and walking routes; the potential for increased pupil transport requirements. Planning Sites will be assessed against current local & national planning policies and current land area designation. Placemaking Consideration will be given to potential for place making benefits, such as community and green public spaces. Areas will be assessed for their context within and connection to the local community and how strategic use of the site could bring wider, long-term benefits to the area. Flood Risk Sites will be assessed in line the guidance set out in Policy 22 of the NPF4. Flood risk potential is common and significant across the Renfrewshire estate and dependent on the scale of risk, will not necessarily result in the rejection of a site. The level of risk and site history, along with the impact of remediation and flood protection will all be considered in the assessment of the site. An assessment of site topography will examine factors that may affect the efficient use of the site, including shape, gradients across and adjoining the site, features such as water ways, culverts & previous uses. Previous industrial use may bring issues of ground contamination or existing buildings that need to be factored into site remediation. Budget Budget considerations will principally be concerned with highlighting potential additional costs for abnormal site issues. For example, construction on brown-field sites requiring ground remediation works for ground contaminations. Projects in green or rural areas incurring additional costs associated with installing utilities, and the construction or upgrade of local road and pedestrian routes. Commentary Any additionally significant issues that require consideration, such as location within the catchment area. Table 12: Site Assessment Criteria The following 11 sites were identified as being within Council ownership and located in Johnstone. The sites were considered against the criteria and the requirements for change. A desktop assessment was completed for each site, which has concluded that there are 3 options that have strong viability potential and are appropriate for further
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 49 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE detailed examination and assessment at the next stage. A high level overview of all 11 sites is outlined below. This represents the longlist of site options to deliver the project. Whilst the detail included in this business case has shown that it is not viable to consider sites for a new build primary school to the centre or southwest of Johnstone, a comprehensive exercise has been conducted across the breadth of Johnstone, including sites that ultimately are not appropriate due to their location in the town. Whilst these sites have been assessed, and the findings are presented below; they will not be supported as viable options to proceed with. Additionally, an exercise was also conducted to analyse areas of land in private ownership in the town, to determine their potential viability to develop a new primary school. It was concluded that there is no additional land in private ownership that offers a better option than those sites in Council ownership and was therefore not progressed any further.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 50 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.7. Site Options Assessment 11 sites within Council ownership have been identified and assessed. The location of the sites is shown on the map below. A full assessment of all 11 sites then follows. Map 11: Site Options
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 62 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Site Summary Site No Site Name Strategy (New build/Retrofit) Recommended to take forward to FBC Rationale 1 Existing Auchenlodment Primary School Site, New Build/ Extend & Retrofit Yes The site benefits from being the established focal point for the local community, providing primary school teaching, as well as nursery and after school care. The heavy grading across the site raises design challenges that may compromise design options; however, the overall site area can accommodate this development through careful design consideration. As this school lies in a tight neighbourhood area, particular attention will be required on the views of the local community for the impact this development may have, and what benefits can be brought. 2 Existing Johnstone High School Site New Build No This site is located out with the catchment areas of Thorn and Auchenlodment primaries and is therefore considered unsuitable as part of the wider estate masterplan and reconfigured catchments. This Site is not recommended for further consideration at FBC 3 Existing St Margaret’s Primary School Site, Extend / Renovate / New Build No The existing site is significantly undersized to accommodate a modern primary school under BB103. Although a two-story design or refurbishment of the existing school may improve the condition
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 63 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE or sufficiency of the school, the external area is insufficient to accommodate external learning, social and sports spaces that are standard in education provision. This option is not recommended for further consideration at FBC Stage 4 Existing Thorn Primary School Site New Build Yes The central location of the site within its catchment helps to promote active travel, however the access point to the site requires improvement. The triangular shape of the site places design challenges to the development of an optimised design. Development of the site will likely require compromise on the scale of external learning, social and sports spaces. 5 Former primary school site & housing disposal site, Beith Road – Greenend Avenue, Johnstone New Build No This site is located out with the catchment areas of Thorn and Auchenlodment primaries and is therefore considered unsuitable as part of the wider estate masterplan and reconfigured catchments. This Site is not recommended for further consideration at FBC 6 Beith Road Playing Fields, Johnstone New Build No This site is located out with the catchment areas of Thorn and Auchenlodment primaries and is therefore considered unsuitable as part of the wider estate masterplan and reconfigured catchments. This Site is not recommended for further consideration at FBC
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 64 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 7 Sites at Spateston Road / Hallhill Road, Johnstone New Build No This site is located out with the catchment areas of Thorn and Auchenlodment primaries and is therefore considered unsuitable as part of the wider estate masterplan and reconfigured catchments. This Site is not recommended for further consideration at FBC 8 King George V Playing Fields, Miller Street, Johnstone New Build No There is significant flood risk at the proposed site which would require major engineering works to ensure that both the land and buildings are sufficiently protected from flood risks - The cost of such measures is considered prohibitive compared to alternative options. This Site is not recommended for further consideration at FBC 9 Poplar Avenue Playground, Johnstone New Build Yes The site is well placed centrally within the Johnstone Castle community and sits between the current Thorn and Auchenlodment schools. It has a high level of permeability that would support active travel routes. However, additional works, interventions may be required to improve safe pupil routes particularly where pupils need to cross Beith Road. Although there is a gradient across the site it is not significant and should not compromise design development. Although a change of use in the site would be a direct loss of amenity for the local community this could be offset by the incorporation of shared space in the development of a proposal. There is a high prevalence of on street
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 65 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE parking which may need assessment, monitoring and additional controls during a construction phase. 10 Tannahill Playground, Tannahill Crescent, Johnstone New Build No This site is located out with the catchment areas of Thorn and Auchenlodment primaries and is therefore considered unsuitable as part of the wider estate masterplan and reconfigured catchments. This Site is not recommended for further consideration at FBC 11 Thomas Shanks Park, Johnstone New Build No This site is located out with the catchment areas of Thorn and Auchenlodment primaries and is therefore considered unsuitable as part of the wider estate masterplan and reconfigured catchments. This Site is not recommended for further consideration at FBC Table 13: site assessment summary Any site which is recommended for further investigation as a viable option will be subject to thorough legal checks around ownership to ensure a full understanding of any constraints on development and its likely impact. Should any site require legal processes to amend land designation this would be fully considered at the next stage of assessment and reflected in project timelines where necessary.
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66 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.8. Shortlisted Options for new Thorn / Auchenlodment Based on the assessments, the following options can be deemed potentially viable locations for a new build school merging Thorn and Auchenlodment. Option 01 Extend and refurbish the Existing Auchenlodment at Site 01 - Existing Auchenlodment Primary School, Aspen Place, Johnstone Option 02 New Build at Site 01 - Existing Auchenlodment Primary School, Aspen Place, Johnstone Option 03 New Build at Site 04 - Existing Thorn Primary School, Thorn Brae, Johnstone Option 04 New Build at Site 09 - Poplar Avenue Playground, Johnstone Table 14: Options Shortlist It is recommended that these options are taken forward to the next stage of assessment at Full Business Case, to be considered as part of extensive engagement, and further technical and cost analysis. Of the four options above, two are variations of the same site, resulting in a shortlist of three sites. These three shortlisted sites are shown in Map 12, below:
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 67 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Map 12: Shortlisted Sites Any site which is recommended for further investigation as a viable option will be subject to thorough legal checks around ownership to ensure a full understanding of any constraints on development and its likely impact. Should any site require legal processes to amend land designation this would be fully considered at the next stage of assessment and reflected in project timelines where appropriate. 3.9. Indicative Costs The indicative costs are based on preliminary information and should be considered a framework from which detailed cost plans can be developed. The indicative costs have been built from high level information, benchmarking from various sources including the Scottish Futures Trust (SFT) funding metric, cost information from current Renfrewshire Council education construction projects, costs from other Council’s similar school projects and adjusting the costings where specific knowledge has been gained from the desktop assessment of the site options. The BCIS cost indices have also been used to calculate inflation up to the end of the anticipated construction period.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 68 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE In considering the potential construction costs, it should be noted that all construction sites are unique and will differ from site to site in ways that will impact construction costs. This is as a result of ‘abnormal’ factors exclusive to every site. No two sites are the same, for example flood risk mitigation or ground remediation may be more or less consequential from site to site, with differing impact on the overall construction costs as to how the design addresses the site. In that sense, the indicative costs should be taken as a guide only, detailed site options appraisal will be necessary to fully understand the geotechnical characteristics and construction cost impact before making any final recommendations. The project is currently at RIBA Plan of Works Stage 0 where at this stage it is key to define vision and goals, identify needs and opportunities and to establish a strategy. Therefore, there is no current design information. Key assumptions and exclusions are required to establish indicative costs and clearly indicate what is assumed as included in the costs and what is excluded at this stage. To project an estimated cost for inflation purposes, the construction cost has been based on an assumed construction commencement date of 2030. All figures should be noted as exclusive of VAT. Key assumptions and exclusions were used in compiling the indicative costs in the absence of any design commencing. This approach recognises that whilst a range of cost estimates have been presented, these remain volatile, subject to external factors and site specific detail that will become clearer as sites are investigated, and options further explored at the next stage. It is important to highlight as part of this process, that no budget will be requested or crystalised until further work has been undertaken into the validation of each option, and a recommendation is made thereafter at the conclusion of the Full Business Case. As shown previously in Table 3, the indicative costs are as follows:
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 69 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Cost scenario Range Retrofit Auchenlodment and extend, for 434 pupils and early- years facility matching current provision. £35 - £45m Build a 2 stream primary for 434 pupils, and early-years facility that matches current provision £25 - £45m 3.10. Transport Considerations Renfrewshire Council policy states that primary school pupils who live more than one mile away from their catchment school by the shortest safe walking route, are eligible for home to school transport. The following tables shows current rates of eligibility for school transport on the basis of the options proposed in the OBC, for the existing school sites and the potential new sites outlined above. 3.10.1. Merged Thorn and Auchenlodment Based on pupil census data for 2025/6, of the pupils who reside within the catchment and attend the catchment school, no pupils are eligible for school transport for either Auchenlodment or Thorn Primaries. If the catchments were to merge, based on this data it would change as shown below. This does not take into account the expected roll increase at a new merged school and is based on 2025-26 data for comparison only.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 70 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Current School Site Pupils Eligible Thorn PS 0 Auchenlodment PS 0 Proposed School Site Pupils Eligible New school at site 1 – Auchenlodment 36 New school at site 4 – Thorn 53 New school at site 9 – Poplar Avenue 0 Table 15: Transport eligibility Thorn/Auchenlodment 3.10.2. Merged Cochrane Castle and Fordbank Based on pupil census data for 2025/6, of the pupils who reside within the catchment that attend the catchment school, no pupils are eligible for school transport for either Cochrane Castle or Fordbank Primaries. If the catchments were to merge, based on this data it would change as shown below. This does not take into account the expected roll increase at a new merged school and is based on 2025-6 data for comparison only. Table 16: Transport eligibility Cochrane Castle/Fordbank Current School Site Pupils Eligible Cochrane Castle 0 Fordbank 0 Proposed School Site Pupils Eligible Fordbank, incorporating Cochrane Castle 36
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 71 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.10.3. Merged St Margaret’s and St David’s Based on pupil census data for 2025/6, of the pupils who reside within the catchment that attend the catchment school, 10 pupils are eligible for school transport for St Margarets and none for St Davids. If the catchments were to merge, based on this data it would change as shown below. This does not take into account the expected roll variation at a new merged school and is based on 2025-26 data. Current School Site Pupils Eligible St Margaret’s 10 St David’s 0 Proposed School Site Pupils Eligible West Johnstone Joint Campus 57 Table 17: Transport Eligibility St Margaret’s/St David’s
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72 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.11. Timeline and Next Steps Should the recommendations contained in this OBC be approved, officers will commence work to identify and recommend a preferred option for a new building for Auchenlodment and Thorn Primaries. The next steps in that process are to complete a Full Business Case articulating the recommended option by the end of 2026, for presentation and agreement early in 2027. If approved by Council, work would begin on Statutory Consultation to be carried out during 2027. Timescales would be dependent on timing around Local Government elections scheduled for May 2027 and completion of the associated RIBA stages, with the current anticipated timeline showing that construction could commence by 2030.
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73 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 4. COMMERCIAL CASE 4.1. Approach An overarching procurement strategy will be prepared as the Project develops, and a preferred option for delivery is identified. The strategy will set out the various contracts required to deliver the project including the proposed procurement route, contract objectives, tender methodology and timelines. Pre-market engagement and consultation will be undertaken to ensure a detailed market analysis is completed to test the suitability of the proposed approach to procurement and ensure proposals are attractive and viable for the competitive market. The Project procurement strategy will remain a live document, updated to reflect the outcomes of each stage of the project’s development and responsive to changes in market conditions identified through analysis and ongoing engagement. Bespoke contract strategies will be developed for each requirement detailing the specific requirements and tendering methodology adopted for that contract while aligning with the overall aims and objectives set out in the overarching strategy. 4.2. Service Requirements The project team require external consultants to provide specialist services and works to support the development of the Full Business Case. Services required may include support with space planning, site surveys, intrusive building surveys, legal and planning advisers and cost consultants. The Project team will work with dedicated procurement officers to develop strategies for each contract requirement with consideration to the Council’s standing orders relating to Contracts and principles of best value. 4.3. Project Development Procurement strategy will be developed for the FBC stage that will discuss in detail the most beneficial route to market depending on the proposed final recommendation.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 74 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE The procurement process for the detailed design and construction stages of the project is subject to development. The Council is looking at a range of options including framework routes for procurement of consultants and/ or contractors. In the event there are no suitable existing arrangements to use, it is anticipated options will be as follows: • Multi- disciplinary design team (MDDT) procured using Restricted Procedure in accordance with Council’s Standing Orders relating to Contracts and Public Contracts (Scotland) Regulations 2015 as amended. • Construction works contract, likely to follow a Restricted Procedure in accordance with Council’s Standing Orders relating to Contracts and Public Contracts (Scotland) Regulations 2015 as amended. It is likely to be a 2-stage contract model with pre-construction services agreement (PCSA) to allow early contractor involvement followed by award of main works contract once detailed design is complete. • Ad-hoc/specialist consultant support may be required to support the project team. The project team will work with dedicated procurement officers to develop a strategy for each contract with consideration to the Council’s standing orders relating to Contracts and principles of best value.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 75 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 5. FINANCIAL CASE 5.1. Project Funding – Capital Expenditure Until such time that a specific option has been decided to proceed with at the conclusion of the business case process, no formal project exists and therefore no full capital budget exists. The purpose of this business case process is to allow a decision to be made on the best option to commit capital expenditure on, and only at the conclusion of the process will a request be made to Council to commit to the required project budget. This OBC has outlined the current estimated cost to deliver on the agreed route forward, and this estimate will continue to be refined and updated as more detail becomes available at the next stage of assessment. 5.2. Approvals Process To date, work to develop proposals to reconfigure primary school provision in Johnstone has not incurred any external costs, with all spend being incurred on already budgeted internal resources. To take the project forward through to approval of the FBC further costs will be incurred on both internal and external resource. This spend is required to ensure the Council is presented with a robust and tested recommendation with professional advice on the specifics of the option. To conclude and present the FBC for this project, a budget will be required and will be progressed through established budget setting processes. This budget is made up of all internal technical resource costs and all external professional services and consultant appointments required to interrogate and validate the shortlist of options. This cost is made up as follows: • Internal technical management costs to deliver project feasibility, cost management, architectural services and project management • Flood risk assessments • Roads and transportation assessments • Space planner to produce timetabling and demand modelling to develop schedule of accommodation • Civil engineering to conduct ground investigation surveys on shortlist of sites
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 76 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Structural engineer to conduct intrusive survey of existing asset as required Approvals for spending this development budget will be agreed through current project governance to ensure accountability and transparency. 5.3. Revenue Expenditure The new primary school will be owned and operated by Renfrewshire Council. The operating model will align with current arrangements for Renfrewshire Council assets and learning establishments. Potential operating costs for a new school will be further explored as part of the Full Business Case which will be developed throughout 2026. Whole life cost modelling will capture elements of future revenue spend across the expected lifetime of the proposed new school. Operating costs for the current school have been captured and are indicated in the Strategic Case, above. Initial indication shows that the cost of operating a new primary school would be broadly reflective of current operational costs including staffing, and facilities management. It should however be noted that depending on the specific location of the shortlist of options, the cost of school transport could vary, albeit this cannot be seen as a single measure of value in an option. The cost of delivering home to school transport has to be considered in the broader context of the educational and community value that can be derived through the development of a new school. This matter will be explored in more detail at the FBC stage where each of the shortlisted options will be investigated in greater detail for the estimated revenue costs associated with it. When considering the wider context of this business case and the preferred route forward, it is anticipated that significant financial savings can be achieved through the redesign of the Johnstone Primary Learning Estate. This matter will be fully investigated throughout the next stage of the process as part of the Full Business Case.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 77 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 5.4. Indicative Costs The indicative cost information outlined in sections 1.7 and 3.6 was prepared using current market cost information, including Scottish Futures Trust (SFT) benchmark data, cost information associated with current Council education construction projects, and BCIS cost forecast indices to underpin indexing current construction cost metrics to anticipated future construction date. Indicative costs are based on an assumed construction commencement date of 2030 and all costs should be considered as exclusive of VAT. In considering the potential construction costs, it should be noted that all construction sites are unique and will differ from site to site in ways that will impact construction costs. This is as a result of ‘abnormal’ factors exclusive to every site. No two sites are the same, for example flood risk mitigation or ground remediation may be more or less consequential from site to site, with differing impact on the overall construction costs as to how the design addresses the site. In that sense, the indicative costs should be taken as a guide only, detailed site options appraisal will be necessary to fully understand the geotechnical characteristics and construction cost impact before making any final recommendations. The project is currently at RIBA Plan of Works Stage 0 where at this stage it is key to define vision and goals, identify needs and opportunities and to establish a strategy. Therefore, there is no current design information. Key assumptions and exclusions are required to establish indicative costs and clearly indicates what is assumed as included in the costs and what is excluded at this stage. The cost range, as shown previously in Table 2, gives a high-level indicative estimate based on a number of key assumptions and exclusions which may be subject to change, given the early stage of the project. These will be further refined as the project develops. Cost scenario Range Retrofit Auchenlodment and extend, for 434 pupils and early-years facility matching current provision. £35 - £45m Build a 2-stream primary for 434 pupils, and early-years facility that matches current provision. £25 - £45m
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 78 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE The key assumptions and exclusions used in compiling potential costs help ensure full financial transparency. The following are highlighted as examples: Assumptions: • It is assumed that Auchenlodment, St Margaret’s and Thorn shall remain operational while the new primary school construction works are ongoing, apart from the option to rebuild/retrofit on the site of Auchenlodment where a decant allowance has been required. • Estimated costs are based on construction costs at prices (4th Qtr. 2025) • It is assumed services and utility connections are available locally • Inflationary allowances have been made in accordance with current published BCIS Tender Price Indices Exclusions: • Refurbishment works costs to the existing St Margaret’s and Thorn Primary Schools during construction or retrofit works have been excluded • Legal Costs • Planning Conditions • Section 75 Planning works/contributions • Operational costs, Hard FM or Lifecycle/Whole Life costs These potential costs were produced for a new build/retrofit primary school for the provisional scope identified as part of this business case, which is a school of 434 capacity, with early years provision, and a level of additional community use space. 5.5. Financial Risk / Optimism Bias In calculating potential costs, the estimate includes an allocation for risk and uncertainty. For example, it must be acknowledged that cost indications are based on an indicative programme that includes a construction period, commencing in 2030. Where a delay occurs and the programme slips, costs would inevitably change as factors such as inflation are brought to bear. Optimism bias allows for mitigation of any unexpected increases or changes throughout the process but cannot account for all external factors.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 79 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 5.6. Interdependencies As indicated, the project examining the future of Johnstone Primary School Estate is developing concurrently with two other Learning Estate capital projects. All three projects are working to an overall aspirational budget commitment that will continue to be defined and will require Council commitment to secure the required budget at the conclusion of the Full Business Case process. Different requirements, circumstances and context for each project will have a bearing on the final cost requirements and their share of the overall funding available, making them highly dependent on each other.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 80 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 6. MANAGEMENT CASE 6.1. Project Management and Project Governance Overview Currently, Renfrewshire Council is undertaking several capital projects focussed on learning estate improvements, covering both primary and secondary schools. This work has built on existing expertise within the key teams likely to be involved in any project to improve the provision of the Johnstone primary learning estate, giving the Council an experienced pool of resources to draw from. Work is underway within Children’s Services to create a dedicated Learning Estate Programme Team to deliver on the ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy. 6.2. Project Roles Learning Estate projects will be overseen at Chief Officer level by the Director of Children’s Services who acts as the Programme Sponsor for all projects. Senior accountability is assumed by the Head of Education for Strategy and Improvement who takes the position of Senior Responsible Owner (SRO). In common with all Learning Estate projects, delivery of change for the Johnstone Primary School Estate will be led by the Strategic Learning Estate Manager who holds senior accountability of project delivery to the SRO with day-to-day project leadership guiding the project teams through all aspects from inception, through to construction execution and handover. This leadership hierarchy will ensure that projects are successfully delivered upholding quality across project time, cost, and scope, ultimately delivering the intended outcomes and high-quality learning establishments for all. The Strategic Learning Estate Manager will be guided by subject matter experts who will control and resource the programme with the appropriate skillsets, with professional technical management in construction and the built environment coming from the Council’s Technical Services. It is crucial to note however, that whilst leadership roles have been established, appropriate officer level programme governance has been established to ensure that there is no single source of programme decision making. This process ensures accountability and robust decision making with representation covering all key Council services.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 81 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Each project will require bespoke levels of resource depending on the scale and complexity but will follow a consistent approach. A dedicated Programme Manager will lead the overall success and delivery of the programme by implementing and executing full governance and control across all projects, supporting the Strategic Learning Estate Manager. Project management resource will be provided by the Council’s Programme Management Unit to cover business case development, business change processes, and fundamental client-side project management throughout the lifecycle. Technical expertise will be provided by the Councils’ Technical Services who will provide construction project management, contract management, and subject matter expert roles where appropriate through design and delivery. Additional resources will be required for each project with ongoing resource allocation covering critical services such as Finance, Communications, Education, Procurement, and Legal. All resources allocated to Learning Estate projects will report to the Strategic Learning Estate Manager for their involvement in these projects, with decision making being made by the appropriate authority level, either the Project Board, or Delivery Board, as noted below in section 6.3. The Council has developed significant experience over the past 15 years delivering major and complex investment programmes across the learning estate (which includes three major projects currently in delivery), leisure estate, cultural estate as well as major transport infrastructure. This experience places the Council in a strong position to understand the resource and governance arrangements required to deliver investment programmes of scale and this will be invaluable to support the Council’s investment focus shifting to a long-term strategic learning estate investment programme. 6.3. Reporting Arrangements This project will be monitored using current project management tools to record progress against timelines, monitor risk, and track change etc. Reporting will be used to manage and drive the project and ensure accountability to the public more generally. Beyond day-to-day project management activity, reporting will occur at regular
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 82 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE intervals to established boards, with key decisions and milestones signed off at an appropriate level. At Council level, this project will be reported to the Education & Children’s Services Policy Board for all decision making and progress updates. Where financial decisions on matters such as high value contract awards are required, this project will report to the Finance, Resources & Customer Services Policy Board as per agreed Council governance. At officer level, this project will be reported to both a Project Board, and a Delivery Board. The Delivery Board holds the senior officer level decision making authority for the project and will act as the ultimate officer level decision making body within its terms of reference and agreed scope/authority. This Board consist of Director / Head of Service representation of all key Council services. The Project Board will consist of Senior Managers / Heads of Service of all key Council services and will act as the operational decision making body for all matters as agreed in the scope, budget, and timeline of the project. This governance is illustrated in the image below:
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83 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Education & Children s Services Policy Board Learning Estate Delivery Board Chair – Director of Children s Services Director / Head of Service Representation Strategic Learning Estate Manager (Strategy & Delivery Lead) Learning Estate Project Board Chair – Head of Education Strategy & Improvement Head of Service / Senior Manager Representation Finance, Resources & Customer Services Policy Board (FRCS) All Learning Estate High Value Project Contract Awards Senior Managers and Specialist Advisers Project Delivery Team Council Decision Making Level Officer Decision Making Level Project Delivery Level
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84 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 6.4. Procurement Strategy The project team has a dedicated specialist procurement officer who will take the lead in developing an overarching Learning Estate Project Procurement Strategy. In the short term, initial assessment of the project will identify any requirement for consultant services to assist with technical aspects of project development. If the OBC is approved at E&CS Policy Board, consultants will be required to support the project team as it develops a Full Business Case (FBC). This work will be led by the specialist procurement officer and has been referenced in the Commercial Case, above. 6.5. Overall Project Benefits Delivery of change to primary school provision in Johnstone would deliver key project benefits to local schools and stakeholders as well as the wider community: • Ensuring the most productive use of the primary school estate across Johnstone is achieved to ensure all pupils will be educated in the best possible learning environments over the long term • A reduction in operational cost and increased efficiency through provision of a school estate that fits demand and can operate at optimal occupancy • Maximise operational efficiency through modern, sustainable and efficient buildings with a reduced need for maintenance of dilapidated buildings. • A reduction in Renfrewshire Council’s carbon footprint through the operation of a school better equipped to meet energy performance targets through more efficient operation. • Securing community anchor sites in the catchment area providing facilities for public use outside of school hours. 6.6. Community Benefits Realisation Arrangements Renfrewshire Council has an established and successful Community Benefits approach which aims to deliver social, economic and environmental benefits for Renfrewshire’s communities as part of contract delivery. Community benefits are considered for inclusion on all regulated procurement over £50,000 and are delivered by suppliers and contractors in partnership with local organisations and supported by the Council’s
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 85 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Community Benefit Forum and Delivery Partners. Monitoring of community benefits will be managed through project and delivery boards and a benefits realisation strategy will be aligned with the overarching procurement strategy. 6.7. Risk Management Arrangements The project team has commenced a risk register to capture and monitor risk on behalf of the Council. Risk management will remain an active part of the project management process for the duration of this project with regular dedicated sessions focussing on the risk register to complement its inclusion as a standing agenda item in project working groups and meetings at all levels. 6.8. Equalities and Human Rights Any equality impact on current users and staff at all schools in Johnstone, as well as the wider community, as a consequence of this project, will be considered at all stages it develops. Initial Equality and Human Rights Impact Assessments (EQHRIA) have been carried out at programme level. This will inform the basis of all future assessments, where individual impact assessments will be conducted, specifically relating to the upcoming community engagement and consultation. All proposals outlined in this business case would be subject to formal statutory consultation where impacts will again be considered in detail. 6.9. Communication, Engagement, and Community Voice Informal community and stakeholder engagement commenced in August this year, following publication of the SCC. Engagement has included meetings with headteachers, ward members and the parent council for all Johnstone primary schools, to keep all interested parties informed of progress and likely timelines for this project. A survey was issued to parents and staff, inviting their views on the school and what they would improve, what should be important for any future investment. Those findings are referenced in the Strategic Case (section 2.6, above). Responses to the survey helped shape analysis of the routes forward and options considered in this OBC.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 86 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Engagement with key stakeholders and the wider community will be key to the successful determination of the overall best value option to proceed with at the conclusion of the Full Business Case. To ensure clear communication and stakeholder input to the process, the project team will carry out an informal consultation on the short-listed options described in section 3.5 from April 2026. More detail is provided in section 7.1 Summary of Shortlisted Options and Next Steps
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 87 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 7. CONCLUSION 7.1. Summary of Shortlist of Options and Next Steps This OBC confirms that current capacity, future roll projections and the varying conditions of the school estate in Johnstone can only be resolved by a masterplan reconfiguration of the Johnstone learning estate which takes account of the following aims: Route 4: Masterplan Redesign of the Primary School Estate in Johnstone Address the overprovision of primary school places in Johnstone and the requirements of the 3 priority schools of Thorn, Auchenlodment, and St Margaret’s, by: • Making best use of capacity of existing high-quality buildings including St Anthony’s, West Johnstone Joint Campus, and Fordbank. • Considering the location of any new build school facility that would look to combine more than one existing school on the same site • Considering the most appropriate catchment area configurations to support efficiency and capacity. The business case concludes that the following 3 elements should be included in a masterplan approach, capturing those options that should be progressed to the Full Business Case stage: a) Merge Thorn and Auchenlodment catchment areas, combining both non- denominational schools in a single modern building by one of the following means: 1. Site 01 - Retrofit and extend the existing Auchenlodment Primary School building to provide a modern 2 stream primary school with capacity for 434 pupils at Aspen Place, Johnstone 2. Site 01 – Construct a new build 2 stream primary school with capacity for 434 pupils at the existing Auchenlodment primary school site at Aspen Place, Johnstone 3. Site 04 - Construct a new build 2 stream primary school with capacity for 434 pupils, at the site of the existing Thorn Primary, Thorn Brae, Johnstone 4. Site 09 - Construct a new build 2 stream primary school with capacity for 434 pupils on a new Site at Poplar Avenue, Johnstone
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 88 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE b) Merge Cochrane Castle and Fordbank catchment areas, combining both non- denominational schools at the current Fordbank Primary School site. c) Merge St Margaret’s and St David’s catchment areas, combining both denominational schools at the West Johnstone Joint Campus, creating a single denominational school. Note: St Anthony’s Primary is not affected by the proposed options as it is a high quality building operating at sufficient capacity. Further detail is given in section 3. To prepare the Full Business Case, more detailed site assessments, further cost modelling, and community consultation are required to recommend a single best value option to proceed with on conclusion of the next stage of the business case process. Taking into account the Council’s commitment to include communities in decision making, the project team will conduct an informal consultation on the options outlined above. The purpose of carrying out an informal consultation during the Full Business Case stage is to: • Comply with recommended best practice in ensuring that the public are involved in decision making • Comply with UNCRC to involve children in making decisions that affect them • Explain the options clearly to stakeholders and the public • Understand early in the process local views on the options • Refine options based on local views and feedback • Present a final option that is the most suitable for the community and the council • Reduce the potential for community objections at a later stage • Enhance relationships with local communities/individuals Key stakeholder groups that will be engaged in the informal consultation include: • Pupils and parents – parent councils, all parents and pupils • Local community – Community councils, youth groups, local development groups, local interest groups, general population in school catchment • School staff - Head teachers, teaching staff, admin staff, support staff. • Local early years children and parents • Politicians – local ward members, ECSPB members, local MPs, local MSPs, • Council Services – all council services who contribute to the creation, running and maintenance of school facilities • Future building users – groups with letting arrangements • Neighbours – current and potential neighbours to school buildings/sites.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 89 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Statutory bodies – Education Scotland, Police Scotland, Scottish Fire and Rescue Service, Sport Scotland. Activity Stakeholders Methods Preparation and options development Senior Officers and SLT Elected Members Head Teachers Briefings Workshops 1-1 interviews Targeted Early Engagement Parent Councils/Parents Community Councils Local Community Groups Pupils Staff Council Services Roud table meetings Briefings Workshops Focus Groups Surveys Broad Public Engagement Associated school parents and pupils General public Neighbours Surveys Public events Analysis and Refinement Project team Table 18: Engagement Activity The Full Business Case process is expected to take the remainder of 2026 to complete and will be presented back to a future cycle of the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board in 2027 for approval of a final recommended option.
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Johnstone Primary School Estate Outline Business Case 90 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Children’s Services Renfrewshire Council Renfrewshire House Cotton Street Paisley PA1 1BR
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1 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Johnstone High School Outline Business Case
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 2 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET Title: Johnstone High School Version Number 2 Document Type: Outline Business Case Author: Learning Estate Project Team Date Published: 18/02/2026 Document Versions: Version: Name: Update: Date V0.1 Project Team Initial draft 28/11/2025 V0.2 Project Team Amendments and further draft 16/12/2025 V1 Project Team First draft for review 17/12/2025 V1.1 Project Team Amendments and further draft 19/01/2026 V1.2 Project Team Further amendments 13/02/2026 V2 Project Team Final draft following review by Chief Officers 18/02/26 Supporting Documentation / Location: Document Title: Location: Strategic Case for Change Document.ashx
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 3 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................ 6 1.1. Introduction .......................................................................................... 6 1.2. Background ........................................................................................... 7 1.3. Opportunity ........................................................................................... 9 1.4. Scope and Objectives ............................................................................ 9 1.5. Summary of Routes Forward ............................................................... 10 1.6. Preferred Route Forward and Options Shortlist .................................. 11 1.7. Indicative Costs ................................................................................... 11 1.8. Timeline ............................................................................................... 13 2. STRATEGIC CASE .............................................................................. 14 2.1. Strategic Context ................................................................................. 14 2.2. The Need for Change ........................................................................... 15 2.3. Investment Objectives ......................................................................... 15 2.4. Existing Arrangements ......................................................................... 16 2.5. Initial Engagement .............................................................................. 17 2.6. Scope and Service Requirements ....................................................... 18
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 4 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3. ECONOMIC CASE .............................................................................. 20 3.1. Potential Routes Forward.................................................................... 20 3.2. Preferred Route Forward ..................................................................... 25 3.3. Site Assessment Criteria ...................................................................... 26 3.4. Site Options Assessment ..................................................................... 29 3.5. Shortlisted Options ............................................................................. 36 3.6. Indicative Costs ................................................................................... 37 3.7. Transport Considerations ................................................................... 39 3.8. Timeline and Next Steps ..................................................................... 40 4. COMMERCIAL CASE .......................................................................... 41 4.1. Approach ............................................................................................. 41 4.2. Service Requirements ......................................................................... 41 4.3. Project Development .......................................................................... 41 5. FINANCIAL CASE ............................................................................... 43 5.1. Project Funding – Capital Expenditure ............................................... 43 5.2. Approvals Process ............................................................................... 43 5.3. Revenue Expenditure .......................................................................... 44 5.4. Indicative Costs ................................................................................... 44
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 5 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 5.5. Financial Risk / Optimism Bias ............................................................ 46 5.6. Interdependencies .............................................................................. 46 6. MANAGEMENT CASE ........................................................................ 47 6.1. Project Management and Project Governance Overview ................... 47 6.2. Project Roles ........................................................................................ 47 6.3. Reporting Arrangements ..................................................................... 48 6.4. Procurement Strategy ......................................................................... 51 6.5. Overall Project Benefits ....................................................................... 51 6.6. Community Benefits Realisation Arrangements ................................. 51 6.7. Risk Management Arrangements ........................................................ 52 6.8. Equalities and Human Rights .............................................................. 52 6.9. Communication, Engagement, and Community Voice....................... 52 7. CONCLUSION ................................................................................... 53 7.1. Summary of Shortlist of Options and Next Steps ................................ 53
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6 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1. Introduction This outline business case (OBC) is required as part of the Council’s new structured approach to delivering its long-term strategy for the learning estate across Renfrewshire. It builds on the context set out in a Strategic Case for Change (SCC) examining the future of Johnstone High School in Johnstone, which was approved in August 2025 at the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board (E&CS Policy Board). In the SCC, Johnstone High school was assessed as working far below optimal occupancy with demand for places likely to remain at or below 60% of capacity over the next 10-15 years. Further, the school building was noted as being in poor condition, with suitability also impacting delivery of a modern school curriculum and efforts to improve the learning environment in line with the ambitions of Renfrewshire Council’s Learning Estate Strategy. The purpose of the OBC is to articulate a preferred way forward for the project by identifying a shortlist of investment options likely to optimise value for money in delivering change. A longlist of options is presented as part of the OBC, along with analysis and rationale for their inclusion or exclusion from the shortlist. Additionally, further detail is provided in respect to how the scheme will be prepared for procurement and how the Council will put in place funding and management arrangements for its successful delivery. The OBC uses the following framework to present the preferred way forward, utilising an adapted HM Treasury Green Book approach which is based on the 5 Case model: Strategic case – confirming that strategic objectives remain current and seek agreement on the recommendation Economic Case – helping to determine that the preferred way forward offers value for money Commercial Case – working towards a recommended deal by explaining potential delivery models, procurement and engagement Financial Case – establishing affordability and funding requirements
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 7 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Management Case – planning for successful delivery Table 1: Business case development process 1.2. Background The learning estate strategy published by the Council in 2024, aims to initiate a strategic programme of investment in schools through detailed assessment of the entire learning estate. The ambition of the investment programme is to ‘create the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive’. Renfrewshire’s schools were assessed against various criteria including condition, suitability for delivering the curriculum, capacity and demand. Using a prioritisation framework, the strategy assessed the entire learning estate, identifying those schools in need of long-term investment planning now, to ensure that the Council is best placed to: • Secure best value from strategic learning estate decisions around investment Stage: Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage Outcome: Strategic Outline Case Outline Business Case Full Business Case Final Delivery Business Case Stage Activities: • Highlighting strategic context • Making the case for change • Agreeing scope • Considering longlist options • Exploring the preferred way forward and presenting a shortlist • Determine potential value for money • Preparing for the potential deal • Planning for procurement • Procuring the solution • Contracting the deal • Ensuring successful delivery 5-Case Model (stage of completeness): • Strategic 50% • Economic 40% • Commercial 10% • Financial 10% • Management 10% • Strategic 80% • Economic 70% • Commercial 40% • Financial 30% • Management 50% • Strategic 90% • Economic 90% • Commercial 90% • Financial 75% • Management 75% • Strategic 100% • Economic 100% • Commercial 100% • Financial 100% • Management 100% Gateway Review: Strategic Assessment Business Justification Delivery Strategy Final Investment Decision and financial commitment
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 8 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Meet the expected long-term demand for education provision across Renfrewshire whilst delivering improvements in school buildings and learning environments • Ensure that the delivery of any new infrastructure complements other key strategic objectives being progressed by the Council to optimise the use of assets for communities and support wider redesign of services that better meet the needs of communities. A cohort of 13 priority schools was identified, highlighting Johnstone High School as a key site where deteriorating building conditions and the suitability of the school buildings hamper the Council’s ability and ambition to deliver the curriculum in the best possible learning environment. A further consideration identified at Johnstone High School was based on analysis of pupil roll projections. Thus, Johnstone High School is noted as operating significantly below planning capacity. Further, demand for places is projected to remain well below planning capacity over the next 10-15 years. In response, officers produced a Strategic Case for Change, to consider the context of key issues which, if not addressed, would limit the ability to deliver the strategic objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy for Johnstone High School. The document examined the operating context at the school with reference to the objectives of the strategy: • Condition • Suitability • Sufficiency • Inclusivity • Digital • Sustainability and Net Zero • Community Facilities and Place shaping • Active Travel The Strategic Case for Change sets out the current baseline position at the school. It highlights the challenges presented by the physical environment and excess capacity, and how this hampers the Council’s desire to ensure future delivery of the modern curriculum.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 9 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Following approval of the strategic case for change, significant work has been undertaken to identify options for change that meet these ambitions and align with the critical success factors articulated in the documents. 1.3. Opportunity The opportunity to change and improve the provision of Johnstone High School aims to advance the objectives of Renfrewshire Council’s new Learning Estate Strategy, and to help meet the ambitions of wider Council and Scottish Government policies. Those ambitions, fully considered in the Strategic Case for Change, are summarised here: • Improving the condition of schools • Sustainability and Energy Efficiency • Equity and Inclusion • Adapting to Future Educational Needs • Community and Public Use • Strategic Planning and Investment • Collaborative Approach with Stakeholders The ambitions encompass Renfrewshire Council’s determination to invest wisely whilst reflecting the importance of operational efficiencies and cost avoidance in delivering the Learning Estate Strategy. Thus, careful consideration of how to bring change to Johnstone High School, can additionally help increase building operational efficiency through provision of improved, modern facilities. A new or refurbished school can deliver modern standards and design and contribute to the Council’s Net Zero commitments. Above all, this OBC sets out the opportunity for Renfrewshire Council to meet its overarching aim of ensuring that its schools are modern, accessible to all and support the delivery of high-quality education for learners. 1.4. Scope and Objectives The Strategic Case for Change set out five overarching investment objectives for Johnstone High School. Any investment in the learning estate must: • Deliver the best learning environments and facilities possible • Support improving attainment and ambition
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 10 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Maximise operational efficiency across the estate • Reduce the contribution to the Council’s combined carbon footprint • Acknowledge that ageing schools with deteriorating conditions come closer to the point of being no longer fit for purpose Thus, Johnstone High School is identified as a school which does not match current or future demand; whose building condition and layout hamper delivery of a modern curriculum and efforts to raise attainment further; whose buildings require considerable on-going investment simply to maintain the status quo; and which cannot contribute to Council’s net zero commitments in its current form. To meet these objectives and deliver change, this OBC will examine viable options for the delivery of a new-build or major retrofit secondary school for a roll of circa 1,000 pupils (revised up or down based on detailed project development), with sufficient space for community or partner facilities to be considered. with consideration of any associated community facilities in line with the Council’s wider strategic property strategy. The school should remain within the current catchment area. 1.5. Summary of Routes Forward Possible options for the future of Johnstone High School considered 4 potential routes forward against the requirements for change: 1 – Do Nothing 2 – Retrofit and Refurb 3 – Rebuild Johnstone High on the current site 4 – Rebuild Johnstone High on another site Analysis of the routes forward are presented in full in the Economic Case in Section 3. This was produced following the collation of background information included in the SCC, technical information, and analysis of the operating context at Johnstone, as well as engagement with school staff and parents.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 11 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 1.6. Preferred Route Forward and Options Shortlist The preferred route forward for the project has been determined using the critical success factors identified in the SCC, to assess the viability of the various options under consideration. This recommended delivery of change by addressing the capacity and school condition issues facing Johnstone High School by refurbishing the current school or rebuilding it at the current site or elsewhere in the catchment: Route 2 Route 3 Route 4 Retrofit the existing school Rebuild on the current Johnstone High site Rebuild elsewhere in the catchment area Table 2: Preferred Routes Forward This OBC appraises the routes forward, proposing and assessing various site options and recommending an options shortlist. This process and analysis are presented in the Economic Case, section 3, below. The shortlisted options are: Option 01 Retrofit Johnstone High School on Site 01 Johnstone High School Beith Road, Johnstone Option 02 New Build on Site 01 Existing Johnstone High School Site, Beith Road, Johnstone Option 03 New Build on Site 03 Beith Road Playing Fields, Johnstone Table 3: Options Shortlist 1.7. Indicative Costs To identify an indicative planning cost for delivering options associated with the preferred route forward, an exercise was conducted to consider the potential cost of delivering a school project at the identified planning scale (a secondary school of 1,000 capacity with additional community-use space).
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 12 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE These costs are discussed in greater detail at section 3.6 (Economic Case) and 5.4 (Financial Case), below. The overall potential costs of a new Johnstone High School built to the set criteria are shown here: Cost Scenario Range Option 1 – Retrofit the existing school £121m Option 2 – Rebuild on the current Johnstone High site £85 - £133m Option 3 – Rebuild elsewhere in the catchment area £91 - £144m Table 4: Indicative Costs The indicative costs above are provided for illustrative purposes only. Costs are subject to change depending on consultation, design changes, planning requirements and parameters, site locations and geotechnical site characterisation, procurement routes and other external factors.
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13 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 1.8. Timeline In 2025 a high-level summary of the timeline for completing this business case process was outlined, as shown below. This timeline is explained in more detail in section 3 of this document to show a potential route to construction.
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14 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 2. STRATEGIC CASE 2.1. Strategic Context In August 2025, a business case presented to E&CS Policy Board set out a strategic case for change at Johnstone High School. The paper outlined the background and context, highlighting links to local and national strategies for education, including Renfrewshire Council’s Learning Estate Strategy and Fairer Renfrewshire policy, and Scottish Government’s National Learning Estate Strategy. The strategic objective for this project is to ensure delivery of the best quality learning environments for secondary pupils in the Johnstone High School catchment area, whilst ensuring that capacity matches demand for school places, both now and in the future. This OBC takes that initial case for change and begins the process of identifying options for change in response to the needs and drivers identified. The policy background is summarised below. • Renfrewshire Council Learning Estate Strategy – a long-term structured approach to assessment of the learning estate through a prioritisation framework which identifies those areas of the estate most in need of investment. The strategy ensures careful planning to ensure that limited capital investment is directed where it will have the greatest impact through reshaping, refurbishing or replacing existing facilities. • Scottish Government’s National Learning Estate Strategy – reflecting the ambition of the Scottish Attainment Challenge, which promotes equity in access to quality education facilities as part of a drive to tackle the poverty related attainment gap and promote inclusivity. • Fairer Renfrewshire – recognising the role of the learning estate in reducing inequalities and improving the life chances of pupils across Renfrewshire • Strategic Planning and Investment – recognising the long-term nature of the strategy for the learning estate, with a clear framework which identifies those schools that require replacement, refurbishment or upgrading • Strategic Property Strategy – seeks to ensure that Renfrewshire Council’s property estate is strategically located and used to its fullest potential, complementing existing facilities and services wherever possible
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 15 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 2.2. The Need for Change As articulated in the Strategic Case for Change document which preceded this business case, there is a clear and compelling case for introducing change to Johnstone High School, as highlighted by a combination of factors, including: • Operating below optimal capacity – Johnstone High School has a planning capacity of 1380 pupils and a pupil roll this year of 867; roll projections indicate that demand will remain low and potentially fall further over the next 10-15 years. • Condition and Suitability – ‘Core Facts’ reporting indicates that the condition (rated ‘C’) and suitability (rated ‘B’) of the of the building should be improved and that £13.29m of spending will be required over the next 20 years simply to keep the building operating at its current level. Accessibility is an issue in some parts of the building. • Opportunity to maximise operational efficiency – Provision of a school built to modern teaching and building standards will help increase building operational efficiency by replacing ageing facilities which cannot meet modern building performance standards. 2.3. Investment Objectives The following objectives have been identified as key to improving learning environments across Renfrewshire through investment, and aligning with the ambitions of the Learning Estate Strategy: • Effectiveness – Meet the aims of the 2024 Learning Estate Strategy to initiate a strategic programme of investment in schools; Ensure that every school is considered in terms of Scottish Government Core Facts reporting criteria; Deliver the best learning environments and facilities possible, exceeding, where able, Scottish Government recommendations. • Efficiency – Provision of modern learning environments to improve attainment for pupils in Renfrewshire • Economy – Optimise operating costs for the estate through the creation of buildings which are more energy efficient and through operation of a more efficient overall school estate; Offer a reduction in the costs incurred maintaining ageing buildings; Operation of buildings of a size suited to current and projected school rolls.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 16 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Compliance – Careful planning for the replacement or refurbishment of schools to lessen the impact from older buildings and make a valuable contribution to Renfrewshire Council’s net zero commitments through the operation of more efficient buildings. • Replacement – The project acknowledges that as schools age and maintenance costs increase, they come closer to the point of being no longer fit for purpose as a Council asset. 2.4. Existing Arrangements A comprehensive overview of Johnstone High School was included in the Strategic Case for Change and is summarised below. The key facts relating to its operation are outlined in following tables and narrative. Johnstone High School is a non-denominational secondary school whose catchment area covers all of Johnstone as well as surrounding villages as far as Lochwinnoch. Johnstone serves seven primary schools in the catchment area and circa 5% of current pupils attend from outside the catchment area. The planning capacity for Johnstone High is 1,380 and the current roll is 867. School Age Suitability Condition Johnstone High 64 B C Table 6: Key Facts School Capacity Current Roll 2029/30* 2033/34* 2037/38* Johnstone High 1,380 867 (63%) 908 (66%) 813 (59%) 772 (56%) Table 7: Capacity and Roll Information (‘Sufficiency’) School Utilities Hard & Soft FM Teaching Non- Teaching Other* Rates Total Johnstone High £297,641 £476,690 £5,160,214 £404,279 £269,256 £136,800 £6,744,880 * Waste, Grounds Maintenance; Transport Table 8: Overview of Operating Costs
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 17 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Location No. of Pupils Annual Cost JOHNSTONE HS – W.AUCHENGOWAN/BELLTREES/WINDYHILL/MID HARTFIELD / NETHER BROADFIELD/BOWFIELD/E.MUIRDYKES/LADESIDE 3 £16,963 JOHNSTONE HS – NEWTON OF BELLTREES / HARTFIELD/BOWFIELD / E.MUIRDYKES/MERCHANT’S CLOSE 9 £24,700 JOHNSTONE HS (LINK)/LOCHWINNOCH PS – LOC 20 £9,942 JOHNSTONE HS / LOCHWINNOCH PS – (LINK) LOCHWINNOCH AREA FARMS AND COTTAGES 28 £20,693 JOHNSTONE HS – BROOKFIELD / KILBARCHAN 15 £8,593 JOHNSTONE HS – CHURCH STREET, WOODISDE COTTAGE, PADDOCK WARDEND, KILBARCHAN 8 £3,800 JOHNSTONE HS – CHURCH STREET, KILBARCHAN 9 £6,333 JOHNSTONE HS – LOCHWINNOCH AND HOWWOOD 7 £28,025 JOHNSTONE HS – LOCHWINNOCH AND HOWWOOD 4 £79,800 JOHNSTONE HS – LOCHWINNOCH FARMS 1 £7,600 JOHNSTONE HS – LOCHWINNOCH FARMS 2 £16,401 Total: 106 £255,229 Table 9: Breakdown of Transport Costs 2.5. Initial Engagement Following presentation of the Strategic Case for Change to E&CS Policy Board in August 2025, officers undertook informal community and stakeholder engagement, outlining the processes involved in identifying opportunities to deliver change.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 18 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE A survey was issued to parents, carers and school staff at Johnstone High School, inviting views around current school provision, including school condition, location of facilities and what stakeholders feel should be important to the Council in progressing future school investment. Analysis of responses from parents, carers and the wider community suggested that whilst there is general happiness with the location of the school and the facilities on offer, most respondents acknowledged the challenges the building poses to users. The survey identified the following key themes and discussion points: • Good location within Johnstone • Deteriorating, run-down building condition • Modernisation of classroom facilities to support contemporary learning • Need for improved toilet facilities • Need for improved windows and ventilation Responses from school staff highlighted similar themes: • The building is rundown and unfit for modern education, but the school ethos is strong • There is a lack of ICT and classroom conditions need improvement • Families in the community require a better environment to support their education In summary, both groups identify issues with ventilation, heating, windows, and air quality, alongside inadequate toilets, dated classrooms, and insufficient indoor social and dining spaces that lead to congestion and reduced pupil morale. Corridor widths and general circulation were raised as recurring issues by parents and staff, with both describing overcrowding at transitions as challenging. Outdoor areas are viewed as underused, poorly maintained or lacking in purposeful design, with calls for greener, more inviting and sheltered spaces for socialising, recreation and structured learning. 2.6. Scope and Service Requirements The scope of this proposal for change is to provide an improved Johnstone High School in line with the strategic objectives set out and agreed in the Strategic Case for Change, informed by an understanding of the operating context. Potential routes forward were set out in an interim update to E&CS Policy Board in October 2025, based on the broad
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 19 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE range of options outlined in the Economic Case, below. The potential routes were articulated as follows and are set out in section 3, Economic Case: Route 1 Route 2 Route 3 Route 4 Do nothing – continue to operate Johnstone High Retrofit/Refurbish Johnstone High Rebuild Johnstone High at current site Rebuild Johnstone High at alternative site Table 10: Potential Routes Forward
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 20 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3. ECONOMIC CASE 3.1. Potential Routes Forward In line with the summary of routes forward that are outlined above as part of the Strategic Case each has now been subject to an assessment process to identify the broad advantages and disadvantages to assess the overall merits of each option. This process allows in the first instance, identification of recommended viable routes to be considered in more detail to establish a long list of options to be considered. In the case of Johnstone High, the analysis outlined below identifies three viable routes forward from which a long list of potential options has been identified. The potential viable routes from the list below are: Route 2 – Retrofit the existing Johnstone High Route 3 – New Build Johnstone High at the Current Site Route 4 – New Build Johnstone High at an Alternative Site All routes forward are examined in detail below. Route 1: Do nothing Retain the building as-is with minimal wind and watertight investment and continue to operate the high school in its current format Main Advantages: Value for money • Lower capital outlay required, albeit significant future capital outlay will still be required on building maintenance to secure long term wind and watertight condition and to support net zero transition, none of which would support improvement to configuration or suitability for delivering the curriculum.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 21 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Main Disadvantages: Strategic Fit • Maintaining the current building will not help ensure delivery of the best possible learning environments for all users, nor would it meet the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy or help future proof against further developments in technology or curriculum. Value for Money • The most recent condition report in 2022 assessed the buildings as ‘C- Poor’ (exhibiting major defects/not operating efficiently) with a maintenance cost of £13.29m over the next 20 years to maintain the building as it is now at a poor standard. This would not bring any improvement to the overall suitability and layout of the building or its grounds to support curriculum delivery, and the building would have a limited long term life given its age. In addition, further investment would be required to support long term net zero ambitions. • The building is, and would remain in future, too big for its current and projected roll, making operation less efficient and operationally more expensive Conclusions: With the disadvantages outlined above, this is not considered a viable option and will be discounted as a route forward. This option would bring no material benefit to the school or wider community and would not serve to improve the education experience of anyone involved and is likely to provide poor long term value for money given the age and condition of the existing school. Johnstone High School would continue to operate at inefficient levels. This option will not be considered further. Route 2 – Retrofit the existing Johnstone High Carry out a comprehensive retrofit of Johnstone High School to bring it up to Net Zero Public Sector Building Standards (NZPSBS) or better, whilst improving the overall condition and suitability of the environments. Main Advantages Strategic Fit • Contributes towards net zero ambitions through retention of embodied carbon and significant improvements in energy consumption. • Spaces within the building can be redesigned to reduce overall capacity of school to meet decline in demand, making better use of the asset in a layout reconfiguration. Value for Money • Greater operational efficiency from a more energy efficient building of a size that allows for optimal occupancy. Affordability • Continued use of existing sports facilities at the adjacent sports hub and therefore fewer design considerations
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 22 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Main Disadvantages: Strategic Fit • The most appropriate location and provision within the asset could be compromised by being constrained with current configuration and location of building on site. Value for Money • A deep retrofit is a complex and demanding project requiring careful planning and execution. Initial capital costs for a retrofit may be higher in comparison to an equivalent new-build, and the overall remaining life of a refurbished building is likely to be less than a new build, placing a level of constraint on the long term value for money assessment. • Due to the design of current building and inefficient layout, large portions of the building may require to be demolished and rebuilt as part of a retrofit, leading to the question of whether better overall value would be gained in a new build. • Initial estimates indicate a higher outlay for this option than building new, as outlined above. • Coupled with the higher initial outlay, the whole life value for money would be further undermined by a shorter long-term life associated with a refurbished as opposed to new build structure. Affordability • Refurbishment projects carry inherently higher risk than new build due to latent defects and the uncertain scale of works that will be required. The full extent of work required, and therefore cost and timeline, may only become fully apparent as areas of the internal fabric of the building are exposed and a full understanding of the building condition is apparent. This could result in the further divergence between refurbishment cost and new build ultimately impacting negatively on the whole life value for money appraisal. Achievability • A decant would be required for pupils of the school over a long spanning construction period. In a secondary school this would present significant challenge in terms of maintaining curriculum delivery and retaining access to specialist equipment or workshops. Construction work taking place during term time would add a higher level of complexity and extra cost to the project. Conclusions: This option has attraction in terms of making the most of existing assets, retaining embodied carbon and addressing Council commitments on net zero. The overall cost and challenges associated may represent poorer up-front affordability as well as poorer whole life value for money if the building cannot meet critical success factors and the ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy around longevity, for example, if the superstructure even with a deep retrofit, has a limited lifespan. This option could simply delay the inevitable requirement of a new build school being required when considered over a whole lifetime period. Although the option can facilitate layout and configuration changes which would deliver improved suitability and capacity in line with the Learning Estate Strategy, it would unlikely offer an optimal outcome as the existing building would provide a level of constraint on flexibility.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 23 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Whilst this option presents a range of significant challenges, it is credible and viable and it is proposed to be retained and investigated further, paying particular attention to potential decant logistics, and associated costings of the project. Notwithstanding a commitment to investigate further, it is not expected at this stage this option is likely to present an optimal solution. It is important as part of the overall business case process that, as a viable option, it is considered and if discounted the reasoning is transparently and clearly set out when compared against alternative options to clearly demonstrate best value decision making. Route 3: New Build Johnstone High at Current Site Rebuild Johnstone High School at the current site, either on the current footprint, or elsewhere within the site; with the potential for decanting current pupils during building works, depending on school placement on site. Main Advantages: Strategic Fit • This would deliver a new school built to modern educational and building standards, of a size that allows for optimal occupancy and deliver an asset with the longest potential operational life. • Meets the requirements of Renfrewshire Council’s vision for education and the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy. • It would directly contribute towards net zero ambitions through provision of a new school built to NZPBS standard or better, with significant improvements in energy consumption to the existing school. Value for Money • Creation of a building with modern heating and power systems will greatly improve operational efficiency and a new build provides the opportunity to secure a learning facility with the maximum future life to support long term value for money benefits. Affordability • Continued use of existing sports facilities at the adjacent sports hub meaning lower design and build costs • If rebuilding elsewhere on a suitable position on the current site, decant costs could be avoided and disruption to the school environment significantly mitigated. Main Disadvantages: Strategic Fit • If rebuilding on the existing footprint, the short-term disruption associated with a decant may outweigh longer term gain for all stakeholders. • If rebuilding on the existing footprint, decanting pupils and staff may not align with resourcing constraints especially around available space or demand for modular classrooms and could therefore attract significant costs to provide a suitable decant facility. Achievability • A decant would be required to rebuild the school on its existing footprint. In a secondary school this would pose significant challenges in terms of maintaining curriculum
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 24 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE delivery and retaining access to specialist equipment or workshops. This would add another level of complexity and cost to the project. • Finding suitable premises in which to base the school during decant may be an onerous task, whilst the option of decanting the school community throughout other secondary schools in Renfrewshire risks additional upheaval for other school communities. Conclusions: This option would be able to deliver on all objectives associated with the Learning Estate Strategy with the ability to offer an enhanced education experience through provision of a much-improved asset with greater operational efficiency in a more sustainable fashion. However, if rebuilding on the existing footprint, rather than elsewhere on the site, this option would involve decanting of the school community to facilitate a rebuild. Careful consideration of the decant strategy would have to be undertaken to determine the overall impact of this option on the learning and teaching experience for the period of the decant, and of the additional cost involved in facilitating the decant. The viability of this option will become clearer in the investigation of a decant strategy (if required), which will inform costs and assess the likely disruption to the working of the school. This option (and the sub- option of the specific location of the new school within the existing site) should continue to be assessed further and can then be compared against alternative options to determine the option with overall best value. Route 4: New Build Johnstone High at an Alternative Site Build a new Johnstone High School elsewhere in the catchment on a suitable site; on completion, demolish the current building and sell or develop the land. Main Advantages: Strategic Fit • This would deliver a new school built to modern educational and building standards, of a size that allows for optimal occupancy and greater operational efficiency, delivering an asset with the longest potential operational life. • Meets the requirements of Renfrewshire Council’s vision for education and the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy • It would directly contribute towards net zero ambitions through provision of a new school built to NZPBS standard or better, with significant improvements in energy consumption to the existing school. • Would allow repurposing of the existing site for Council use or sale. Value for Money • Creation of a building with modern mechanical and electrical systems will greatly improve operational efficiency, and a new build provides the opportunity to secure a learning facility with the maximum future life to support long term value for money benefits.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 25 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • The overall cost may be less than that for a retrofit of the existing school. Achievability • Flexibility of timescale through the continued operation of the existing school during the design and build process • Avoids decanting of the school community with all associated cost and upheaval Main Disadvantages: Value for Money • The cost of buying suitable land for the new school if suitable Council-owned land cannot be identified. • Depending on the location chosen, the potential for increased school transport budgets due to increased travel distances for pupils Achievability • Finding a suitable site for a new school could potentially present some challenges. Conclusions: This option would address condition, sufficiency and suitability and would be able to meet most if not all of the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy. As outlined above an alternative site may introduce wider considerations including meeting active travel objectives if appropriate land cannot be sourced in an appropriate location of the catchment area coupled with the scale of requirement associated with the number of pupils requiring home to school transport. Such implications will become clearer through specific site assessment process. However, this route forward should continue to be progressed further to identify alternative delivery options to determine the shortlisted options which present the overall best value. 3.2. Preferred Route Forward Qualitative assessment of the potential routes provided commentary on their practicality, adaptability and desirability, aligned to the critical success factors outlined in the Strategic Case for Change. This identified the route that does not offer a viable means of delivering the required change and confirmed preferred routes forward to address the capacity, condition and suitability of Johnstone High. The preferred routes forward are: Route 2 – Retrofit the existing Johnstone High Route 3 – New Build Johnstone High at the Current Site Route 4 – New Build Johnstone High at an Alternative Site
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 26 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE These routes forward were recommended to Members of this Board and agreed following an update to the E&CS Policy Board in October 2025. 3.3. Site Assessment Criteria The preferred route forward indicates that viable options are dependent on identification of a suitable site for the construction of a new Johnstone High School. To identify potentially viable sites, a list of site assessment criteria has been derived by considering core legislative, policy, and technical considerations. A long list of potential site options has been assessed to identify sites that present potential viability and warrant further investigation and feasibility assessment. Note that this stage of the process is a broad pass / fail assessment of long list options for viability purposes and is not a weighted scored assessment. A more detailed assessment approach of this nature will form part of the next stage of the business case process. The utilised assessment criteria are as follows: Ownership Sites wholly within the ownership of Renfrewshire Council will be prioritised over those owned by others recognising this provides greater certainty of site deliverability. Consideration will be given to brown field sites where remediation and use will be of benefit to the community, or where sites can provide for the retention and or improvement of community facilities, amenities or green spaces. Site size/area Sites will be assessed against the median area requirements set out in BB103 as sufficient for a school of the following size and description: a) Accommodate a secondary school of 1,000 pupils and additional community space, equating to 58,800m2 Active Travel A review of sites in relation to their potential to support Active Travel, proximity to public transport, road networks, cycling and walking routes; the potential for increased pupil transport requirements. Planning Sites will be assessed against current local & national planning policies and current land area designation. Placemaking Consideration will be given to potential for place making benefits, such as community and green public spaces. Areas will be assessed for their context
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 27 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE within and connection to the local community and how strategic use of the site could bring wider, long-term benefits to the area. Flood Risk Sites will be assessed in line the guidance set out in Policy 22 of the NPF4. Flood risk potential is common and significant across the Renfrewshire estate and dependent on the scale of risk, will not necessarily result in the rejection of a site. The level of risk and site history, along with the impact of remediation and flood protection will all be considered in the assessment of the site. An assessment of site topography will examine factors that may affect the efficient use of the site, including shape, gradients across and adjoining the site, features such as water ways, culverts & previous uses. Previous industrial use may bring issues of ground contamination or existing buildings that need to be factored into site remediation. Budget Budget considerations will principally be concerned with highlighting potential additional costs for abnormal site issues. For example, construction on brown-field sites requiring ground remediation works for ground contaminations. Projects in green or rural areas incurring additional costs associated with installing utilities, and the construction or upgrade of local road and pedestrian routes. Commentary Any additionally significant issues that require consideration, such as location within the catchment area. Table 11: Site Assessment Criteria The following five sites were identified as within Council ownership and located in the catchment area and were therefore subject to assessment. The sites were considered against the criteria and the requirements for change. A desktop assessment was completed for each site, which has concluded that three sites, including the current site of the school, have strong viability potential and are appropriate for further detailed examination and assessment at the next stage. A high level overview of the viability assessment for each site is outlined below and represent the longlist of site options to deliver the project. Any site which is recommended for further investigation as a viable option will be subject to thorough legal checks around ownership to ensure a full understanding of any constraints on development and its likely impact. Should any site require legal
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 28 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE processes to amend land designation this would be fully considered at the next stage of assessment and reflected in project timelines where appropriate. Over and above this long list of Council owned sites, an exercise was also conducted to analyse additional areas of land in private ownership in the town, to determine potential viability to develop a new secondary school. This process concluded there are no additional parcels of land in private ownership that offer a better option than those identified in Council ownership and was therefore not progressed any further given the added complexity lack of ownership would bring.
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29 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.4. Site Options Assessment 5 sites within Council ownership have been identified and assessed. The location of the sites is shown on the map below. A full assessment of all 5 sites then follows. Map 1: Site Options
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 35 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Site Summary Site Ref. Site Name Strategy (Extend/New build/Renovate/Dispose) Recommended to take forward to FBC Rationale 1 Existing Johnstone High School New Build Yes The viability of this option will become clearer in the investigation of a potential decant strategy, which will inform costs and assess the likely disruption to the working of the school. This option should continue to be assessed further and can then be compared against alternative options to determine the option with overall best value. 1 Existing Johnstone High School Renovate Yes Whilst challenges exist with this option, it is proposed to be retained and investigated further, particularly around potential decant logistics, and associated costings of the project. This can then be compared against alternative options to determine the options with overall best value. 2 Site at Johnstone / Howwood By-Pass, Johnstone New Build No Loss / Destruction of green space, Hazards including Black Cart Water, Existing Overhead High Voltage Power Infrastructure, Significant earthworks required to allow development of site. Construction of road access routes are challenging. 3 Beith Road Playing Fields, Johnstone New Build No Site Size may be too small to develop a modern high school to the full potential that could be realised on a larger site. 4 Site at Midton Road, Howwood New Build No Agricultural land requires change of use; the existing road infrastructure would require significant upgrading and volume of traffic may be detrimental to the surrounding area. Position of site away from urban population would require significant increase in transport requirement 5 Thomas Shanks Park, Johnstone New Build No As a public park gifted to the people of Johnstone in 1926, Thomas Shanks Park has significant legal protection as an open space within the town. It will not be taken further as a potential site. Table 12: Option Recommendations
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36 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.5. Shortlisted Options Based on the site assessments, the following options can be deemed potentially viable locations for a new build Johnstone High School, as shown previously in Table 3: Option 01 Retrofit Johnstone High School on Site 01 Johnstone High School Beith Road, Johnstone Option 02 New Build on Site 01 Existing Johnstone High School Site, Beith Road, Johnstone Option 03 New Build on Site 03 Beith Road Playing Fields, Johnstone It is recommended that these options are taken forward to the next stage of assessment at Full Business Case, to be considered as part of extensive engagement, and further technical and cost analysis. Any site which is recommended for further investigation as a viable option will be subject to thorough legal checks around ownership to ensure a full understanding of any constraints on development and its likely impact. Should any site require legal processes to amend land designation this would be fully considered at the next stage of assessment and reflected in project timelines where appropriate.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 37 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Map 2: Shortlisted Sites 3.6. Indicative Costs The indicative costs are based on preliminary information and should be considered a framework from which detailed cost plans can be developed. The indicative costs have been built from high level information, benchmarking from various sources including the Scottish Futures Trust (SFT) funding metric, cost information from current Renfrewshire Council education construction projects, costs from other Council’s similar school projects and adjusting the costings where specific knowledge has been gained from the desktop assessment of the site options. The BCIS cost indices have also been used to calculate inflation up to the end of the anticipated construction period. In considering the potential construction costs, it should be noted that all construction sites are unique and will differ from site to site in ways that will impact construction costs. This is as a result of ‘abnormal’ factors exclusive to every site. No two sites are the
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 38 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE same, for example flood risk mitigation or ground remediation may be more or less consequential from site to site, with differing impact on the overall construction costs as to how the design addresses the site. In that sense, the indicative costs should be taken as a guide only, detailed site options appraisal will be necessary to fully understand the geotechnical characteristics and construction cost impact before making any final recommendations. The project is currently at RIBA Plan of Works Stage 0 where at this stage it is key to define vision and goals, identify needs and opportunities and to establish a strategy. Therefore, there is no current design information. Key assumptions and exclusions are required to establish indicative costs and clearly indicate what is assumed as included in the costs and what is excluded at this stage. To project an estimated cost for inflation purposes, the construction cost has been based on an assumed construction commencement date of 2030. All figures should be noted as exclusive of VAT. Key assumptions and exclusions were used in compiling the indicative costs in the absence of any design commencing. This approach recognises that whilst a range of cost estimates have been presented, these remain volatile, subject to external factors and site specific detail that will become clearer as sites are investigated, and options further explored at the next stage. It is important to highlight as part of this process, that no budget will be requested or crystalised until further work has been undertaken into the validation of each option, and a recommendation is made thereafter at the conclusion of the Full Business Case. As shown previously in Table 4, the indicative costs are highlighted below: Cost Scenario Range Option 1 – Retrofit the existing school £122m Option 2 – Rebuild on the current Johnstone High site £85 - £133m Option 3 – Rebuild elsewhere in the catchment area £91 - £144m
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 39 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.7. Transport Considerations Renfrewshire Council policy states that secondary school pupils who live more than two miles away from their catchment school by the shortest safe walking route, are eligible for home to school transport. Based on pupil census data for 2025/6, 106 pupils (13%) are eligible for transport to and from school. If the location of the school were to change, based on this data it would change as shown below. This does not take into account any expected roll variation at a new school and is based on 2025-6 data and is shown for comparison only. Current School Pupils Eligible Johnstone High 106 Possible School Site Pupils Eligible Site 01 – Existing Johnstone High 106 Site 3 - Beith Road Playing Fields 185 Table 13: Transport Eligibility
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40 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.8. Timeline and Next Steps Should the recommendations contained in this OBC be approved, officers will commence work to identify and recommend a preferred option for the replacement of Johnstone High School. The next steps in that process are to complete a Full Business Case articulating the recommended option by the end of 2026, for presentation and agreement early in 2027. If approved by Council, should it be required, based on the option, work would begin on Statutory Consultation to be carried out during 2027. Timescales would be dependent on timing around Local Government elections scheduled for May 2027 and completion of the associated RIBA stages, with the current anticipated timeline showing that construction could commence by 2030.
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41 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 4. COMMERCIAL CASE 4.1. Approach An overarching procurement strategy will be prepared as the Project develops, and a preferred option for delivery is identified. The strategy will set out the various contracts required to deliver the project including the proposed procurement route, contract objectives, tender methodology and timelines. Pre-market engagement and consultation will be undertaken to ensure a detailed market analysis is completed to test the suitability of the proposed approach to procurement and ensure proposals are attractive and viable for the competitive market. The Project procurement strategy will remain a live document, updated to reflect the outcomes of each stage of the project’s development and responsive to changes in market conditions identified through analysis and ongoing engagement. Bespoke contract strategies will be developed for each requirement detailing the specific requirements and tendering methodology adopted for that contract while aligning with the overall aims and objectives set out in the overarching strategy. 4.2. Service Requirements The project team require external consultants to provide specialist services and works to support the development of the Full Business Case. Services required may include support with space planning, site surveys, intrusive building surveys, legal and planning advisers and cost consultants. The Project team will work with dedicated procurement officers to develop strategies for each contract requirement with consideration to the Council’s standing orders relating to Contracts and principles of best value. 4.3. Project Development Procurement strategy will be developed for the FBC stage that will discuss in detail the most beneficial route to market depending on the proposed final recommendation.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 42 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE The procurement process for the detailed design and construction stages of the project is subject to development. The Council is looking at a range of options including framework routes for procurement of consultants and/ or contractors. In the event there are no suitable existing arrangements to use, it is anticipated options will be as follows: • Multi- disciplinary design team (MDDT) procured using Restricted Procedure in accordance with Council’s Standing Orders relating to Contracts and Public Contracts (Scotland) Regulations 2015 as amended. • Construction works contract, likely to follow a Restricted Procedure in accordance with Council’s Standing Orders relating to Contracts and Public Contracts (Scotland) Regulations 2015 as amended. It is likely to be a 2-stage contract model with pre-construction services agreement (PCSA) to allow early contractor involvement followed by award of main works contract once detailed design is complete. • Ad-hoc/specialist consultant support may be required to support the project team. The project team will work with dedicated procurement officers to develop a strategy for each contract with consideration to the Council’s standing orders relating to Contracts and principles of best value.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 43 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 5. FINANCIAL CASE 5.1. Project Funding – Capital Expenditure Until such time that a specific option has been decided to proceed with at the conclusion of the business case process, no formal project exists and therefore no full capital budget exists. The purpose of this business case process is to allow a decision to be made on the best option to commit capital expenditure on, and only at the conclusion of the process will a request be made to Council to commit to the required project budget. This OBC has outlined the current estimated cost to deliver on the agreed route forward, and this estimate will continue to be refined and updated as more detail becomes available at the next stage of assessment. 5.2. Approvals Process To date, work to develop proposals for a new Johnstone High School has not incurred any external costs, with all spend being incurred on already budgeted internal resources. To take the project forward through to approval of the FBC further costs will be incurred on both internal and external resource. This spend is required to ensure the Council is presented with a robust and tested recommendation with professional advice on the specifics of the option. To conclude and present the FBC for this project, a budget will be required and will be progressed through established budget setting processes. This budget is made up of all internal technical resource costs and all external professional services and consultant appointments required to interrogate and validate the shortlist of options. This cost is made up as follows: • Internal technical management costs to deliver project feasibility, cost management, architectural services and project management • Flood risk assessments • Roads and transportation assessments • Space planner to produce timetabling and demand modelling to develop schedule of accommodation • Civil engineering to conduct ground investigation surveys on shortlist of sites
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 44 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Structural engineer to conduct intrusive survey of existing asset as required Approvals for spending this development budget will be agreed through current project governance to ensure accountability and transparency. 5.3. Revenue Expenditure The new Johnstone High School will be owned and operated by Renfrewshire Council. The operating model will align with current arrangements for Renfrewshire Council assets and learning establishments. Potential operating costs for a new school will be further explored as part of the Full Business Case which will be developed throughout 2026. Whole life cost modelling will capture elements of future revenue spend across the expected lifetime of the proposed new school. Operating costs for the current school have been captured and are indicated in the Strategic Case, above. Initial indication shows that the cost of operating a new high school would be broadly reflective of current operational costs including staffing, and facilities management. It should however be noted that depending on the specific location of the shortlist of options, the cost of school transport could vary, albeit this cannot be seen as a single measure of value in an option. The cost of delivering home to school transport has to be considered in the broader context of the educational and community value that can be derived through the development of a new school. This matter will be explored in more detail at the FBC stage where each of the shortlisted options will be investigated in greater detail for the estimated revenue costs associated with it. 5.4. Indicative Costs The indicative cost information outlined in sections 1.7 and 3.6 was prepared using current market cost information, including Scottish Futures Trust (SFT) benchmark data, cost information associated with current Council education construction projects, and BCIS cost forecast indices to underpin indexing current construction cost metrics to anticipated future construction date. Indicative costs are based on an assumed construction commencement date of 2030, and all costs should be considered as exclusive of VAT.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 45 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE In considering the potential construction costs, it should be noted that all construction sites are unique and will differ from site to site in ways that will impact construction costs. This is as a result of ‘abnormal’ factors exclusive to every site. No two sites are the same, for example flood risk mitigation or ground remediation may be more or less consequential from site to site, with differing impact on the overall construction costs as to how the design addresses the site. In that sense, the indicative costs should be taken as a guide only, detailed site options appraisal will be necessary to fully understand the geotechnical characteristics and construction cost impact before making any final recommendations. The project is currently at RIBA Plan of Works Stage 0 where at this stage it is key to define vision and goals, identify needs and opportunities and to establish a strategy. Therefore, there is no current design information. Key assumptions and exclusions are required to establish indicative costs and clearly indicates what is assumed as included in the costs and what is excluded at this stage. The cost range, as shown previously in Table 4, gives a high-level indicative estimate based on a number of key assumptions and exclusions which may be subject to change, given the early stage of the project. These will be further refined as the project develops. Cost scenario Range Retrofit the existing school £121m Rebuild on the current site £89 - £128m Rebuild elsewhere in the catchment area £96 - £139m The key assumptions and exclusions used in compiling potential costs help ensure full financial transparency. The following are highlighted as examples: Assumptions: • It is assumed the works shall be phased to allow the retrofit of the existing Johnstone High School. Maximum of 5 phases. • Estimated costs are based on construction costs at prices (4th Qtr. 2025). • It is assumed services and utility connections are available locally. • Inflationary allowances have been made in accordance with current published BCIS Tender Price Indices.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 46 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Exclusions: • Refurbishment works costs to the existing Johnstone High School during the new high school construction have been excluded • Legal Costs • Planning Conditions • Section 75 Planning works/contributions • Operational costs, Hard FM or Lifecycle/Whole Life costs Cost estimates for this project assume that Johnstone High School must be rebuilt on a suitable site wholly owned by Renfrewshire Council, to preclude the cost of land purchase. The estimates were developed on the basis of provision for 1,000 pupils. Whilst the project may not build to this exact number of pupils, it provides a realistic baseline to analyse costings. 5.5. Financial Risk / Optimism Bias In calculating potential costs, the estimate includes an allocation for risk and uncertainty. For example, it must be acknowledged that cost indications are based on an indicative programme that includes a construction period, commencing in 2030. Where a delay occurs and the programme slips, costs would inevitably change as factors such as inflation are brought to bear. Optimism bias allows for mitigation of any unexpected increases or changes throughout the process but cannot account for all external factors. 5.6. Interdependencies As indicated, the project examining the future of Johnstone High School is developing concurrently with two other Learning Estate capital projects. All three projects are working to an overall aspirational budget commitment that will continue to be defined and will require Council commitment to secure the required budget at the conclusion of the Full Business Case process. Different requirements, circumstances and context for each project will have a bearing on the final cost requirements and their share of the overall funding available, making them highly dependent on each other.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 47 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 6. MANAGEMENT CASE 6.1. Project Management and Project Governance Overview Currently, Renfrewshire Council is undertaking several capital projects focussed on learning estate improvements, covering both primary and secondary schools. This work has built on existing expertise within the key teams likely to be involved in any project to improve the provision of Johnstone High, giving the Council an experienced pool of resources to draw from. Work is underway within Children’s Services to create a dedicated Learning Estate Programme Team to deliver on the ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy. 6.2. Project Roles Learning Estate projects will be overseen at Chief Officer level by the Director of Children’s Services who acts as the Programme Sponsor for all projects. Senior accountability is assumed by the Head of Education for Strategy and Improvement who takes the position of Senior Responsible Owner (SRO). In common with all Learning Estate projects, delivery of change for Johnstone High School will be led by the Strategic Learning Estate Manager who holds senior accountability of project delivery to the SRO with day-to-day project leadership guiding the project teams through all aspects from inception, through to construction execution and handover. This leadership hierarchy will ensure that projects are successfully delivered upholding quality across project time, cost, and scope, ultimately delivering the intended outcomes and high-quality learning establishments for all. The Strategic Learning Estate Manager will be guided by subject matter experts who will control and resource the programme with the appropriate skillsets, with professional technical management in construction and the built environment coming from the Council’s Technical Services. It is crucial to note however, that whilst leadership roles have been established, appropriate officer level programme governance has been established to ensure that there is no single source of programme decision making. This process ensures accountability and robust decision making with representation covering all key Council services.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 48 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Each project will require bespoke levels of resource depending on the scale and complexity but will follow a consistent approach. A dedicated Programme Manager will lead the overall success and delivery of the programme by implementing and executing full governance and control across all projects, supporting the Strategic Learning Estate Manager. Project management resource will be provided by the Council’s Programme Management Unit to cover business case development, business change processes, and fundamental client-side project management throughout the lifecycle. Technical expertise will be provided by the Councils’ Technical Services who will provide construction project management, contract management, and subject matter expert roles where appropriate through design and delivery. Additional resources will be required for each project with ongoing resource allocation covering critical services such as Finance, Communications, Education, Procurement, and Legal. All resources allocated to Learning Estate projects will report to the Strategic Learning Estate Manager for their involvement in these projects, with decision making being made by the appropriate authority level, either the Project Board, or Delivery Board, as noted below in section 6.3. The Council has developed significant experience over the past 15 years delivering major and complex investment programmes across the learning estate (which includes three major projects currently in delivery), leisure estate, cultural estate as well as major transport infrastructure. This experience places the Council in a strong position to understand the resource and governance arrangements required to deliver investment programmes of scale and this will be invaluable to support the Council’s investment focus shifting to a long-term strategic learning estate investment programme. 6.3. Reporting Arrangements This project will be monitored using current project management tools to record progress against timelines, monitor risk, and track change etc. Reporting will be used to manage and drive the project and ensure accountability to the public more generally. Beyond day-to-day project management activity, reporting will occur at regular
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 49 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE intervals to established boards, with key decisions and milestones signed off at an appropriate level. At Council level, this project will be reported to the Education & Children’s Services Policy Board for all decision making and progress updates. Where financial decisions on matters such as high value contract awards are required, this project will report to the Finance, Resources & Customer Services Policy Board as per agreed Council governance. At officer level, this project will be reported to both a Project Board, and a Delivery Board. The Delivery Board holds the senior officer level decision making authority for the project, and will act as the ultimate officer level decision making body within its terms of reference and agreed scope/authority. This Board consist of Director / Head of Service representation of all key Council services. The Project Board will consist of Senior Managers / Heads of Service of all key Council services and will act as the operational decision making body for all matters as agreed in the scope, budget, and timeline of the project. This governance is illustrated in the image below:
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50 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Education & Children s Services Policy Board Learning Estate Delivery Board Chair – Director of Children s Services Director / Head of Service Representation Strategic Learning Estate Manager (Strategy & Delivery Lead) Learning Estate Project Board Chair – Head of Education Strategy & Improvement Head of Service / Senior Manager Representation Finance, Resources & Customer Services Policy Board (FRCS) All Learning Estate High Value Project Contract Awards Senior Managers and Specialist Advisers Project Delivery Team Council Decision Making Level Officer Decision Making Level Project Delivery Level
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51 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 6.4. Procurement Strategy The project team has a dedicated specialist procurement officer who will take the lead in developing an overarching Learning Estate Project Procurement Strategy. In the short term, initial assessment of the project will identify any requirement for consultant services to assist with technical aspects of project development. If the OBC is approved at E&CS Policy Board, consultants will be required to support the project team as it develops a Full Business Case (FBC). This work will be led by the specialist procurement officer and has been referenced in the Commercial Case, above. 6.5. Overall Project Benefits Provision of a new or extensively refurbished high school in Johnstone would deliver key project benefits to the school and local community. • The modernisation of Johnstone High School, making it fit for purpose, with the intention that in future, pupils will be educated in the best possible learning environments • Maximise operational efficiency through modern, sustainable and efficient buildings with a reduced need for maintenance of dilapidated buildings. • A reduction in Renfrewshire Council’s carbon footprint through the operation of a school better equipped to meet energy performance targets through more efficient operation • A community anchor site in west Johnstone providing facilities for public use outside of school hours, complementing public use of the shared sports facilities of Johnstone Community Sports Hub 6.6. Community Benefits Realisation Arrangements Renfrewshire Council has an established and successful Community Benefits approach which aims to deliver social, economic and environmental benefits for Renfrewshire’s communities as part of contract delivery. Community benefits are considered for inclusion on all regulated procurement over £50,000 and are delivered by suppliers and contractors in partnership with local organisations and supported by the Council’s
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 52 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Community Benefit Forum and Delivery Partners. Monitoring of community benefits will be managed through project and delivery boards and a benefits realisation strategy will be aligned with the overarching procurement strategy. 6.7. Risk Management Arrangements The project team has commenced a risk register to capture and monitor risk on behalf of the Council. Risk management will remain an active part of the project management process for the duration of this project with regular dedicated sessions focussing on the risk register to complement its inclusion as a standing agenda item in project working groups and meetings at all levels. 6.8. Equalities and Human Rights Any equality impact on current users and staff at Johnstone High School, as well as the wider community, as a consequence of this project, will be considered at all stages it develops. Initial Equality and Human Rights Impact Assessments (EQHRIA) have been carried out at programme level. This will inform the basis of all future assessments, where individual impact assessments will be conducted, specifically relating to the upcoming community engagement and consultation. 6.9. Communication, Engagement, and Community Voice Informal community and stakeholder engagement commenced in August this year, following publication of the SCC. Engagement has included meetings with headteachers, ward members and the parent council for Johnstone High School, to keep all interested parties informed of progress and likely timelines for this project. A survey was issued to parents and staff, inviting their views on the school and what they would improve, what should be important for any future investment. Those findings are referenced in the Strategic Case (section 2.6, above). Responses to the survey helped shape analysis of the routes forward and options considered in this OBC. Engagement with key stakeholders and the wider community will be key to the successful determination of the overall best value option to proceed with at the
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 53 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE conclusion of the Full Business Case. To ensure clear communication and stakeholder input to the process, the project team will carry out an informal consultation on the short-listed options described in section 3.5 from April 2026. More detail is provided in section 7.1 Summary of Shortlisted Options and Next Steps 7. CONCLUSION 7.1. Summary of Shortlist of Options and Next Steps This outline business case confirms that there is a need to either retrofit the current Johnstone High, or build a new Johnstone High, either on the current site or elsewhere. The provisional scope to allow progression of site assessment, costing, and options analysis is to consider a school of 1,000 pupils. The minimum site area required for a high school for 1,000 pupils is 56,656m² as per Building Bulletin BB103 and 69,746m² as per The School Premises Regulations (Scotland) 1967. This business case concludes that from the longlist of options that have been assessed against the preferred route forward to construct a new high school on a suitable alternative site. As shown previously in Table 3, the following options should be progressed to a Full Business Case Process. Option 01 Retrofit Johnstone High School on Site 01 Johnstone High School Beith Road, Johnstone Option 02 New Build on Site 01 Existing Johnstone High School Site, Beith Road, Johnstone Option 03 New Build on Site 03 Beith Road Playing Fields, Johnstone
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 54 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE To prepare the Full Business Case, more detailed site assessments, further cost modelling, and community consultation are required to recommend a single best value option to proceed with on conclusion of the next stage of the business case process. Taking into account Audit Scotland’s recommendations that the Council include communities in decision making, the project team will conduct an informal consultation on the options outlined above. The purpose of carrying out an informal consultation during the Full Business Case stage is to: • Comply with recommended best practice in ensuring that the public are involved in decision making • Comply with UNCRC to involve children in making decisions that affect them • Explain the options clearly to stakeholders and the public • Understand early in the process local views on the options • Refine options based on local views and feedback • Present a final option that is the most suitable for the community and the council • Reduce the potential for community objections at a later stage • Enhance relationships with local communities/individuals Key stakeholder groups that will be engaged in the informal consultation include: • Pupils and parents – parent councils, all parents and pupils • Local community – Community councils, youth groups, local development groups, local interest groups, general population in school catchment • School staff - Head teachers, teaching staff, admin staff, support staff. • Associated schools - parents, pupils and staff of associated primary, secondary or nursery schools • Politicians – local ward members, ECSPB members, local MPs, local MSPs, • Council Services – all council services who contribute to the creation, running and maintenance of school facilities • Future building users – groups with letting arrangements • Neighbours – current and potential neighbours to school buildings/sites. • Statutory bodies – Education Scotland, Police Scotland, Scottish Fire and Rescue Service, Sport Scotland.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 55 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Activity Stakeholders Methods Preparation and options development Senior Officers and SLT Elected Members Head Teachers Briefings Workshops 1-1 interviews Targeted Early Engagement Parent Councils/Parents Community Councils Local Community Groups Pupils Staff Council Services Roud table meetings Briefings Workshops Focus Groups Surveys Broad Public Engagement Associated school parents and pupils General public Neighbours Surveys Public events Analysis and Refinement Project team Table 14: Engagement Activity The Full Business Case process is expected to take the remainder of 2026 to complete and will be presented back to a future cycle of the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board in 2027 for approval of a final recommended option.
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Johnstone High School Outline Business Case 56 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Children’s Services Renfrewshire Council Renfrewshire House Cotton Street Paisley PA1 1BR
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1 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Trinity High School Outline Business Case
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 2 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET Title: Trinity High School Version Number 2 Document Type: Outline Business Case Author: Learning Estate Project Team Date Published: 18/02/2026 Document Versions: Version: Name: Update: Date V0.1 Project team Initial draft 17/11/25 V0.2 Project team Amendments 21/11/25 V0.3 Project team Further draft 25/11/25 V1 Project team First draft for review 17/12/25 V1.1 Project team Update site assessments and section 7 20/01/26 V1.2 Project team Amendments and updates 10/02/26 V2 Project team Final draft following review by Chief Officers 18/02/26 Supporting Documentation / Location: Document Title: Location: Strategic Case for Change Document.ashx
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 3 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................ 6 1.1. Introduction .......................................................................................... 6 1.2. Background ........................................................................................... 7 1.3. Opportunity ........................................................................................... 9 1.4. Scope and Objectives ............................................................................ 9 1.5. Summary of Routes Forward ............................................................... 10 1.6. Preferred Route Forward and Options Shortlist .................................. 10 1.7. Indicative Costs ................................................................................... 11 1.8. Timeline ............................................................................................... 13 2. STRATEGIC CASE .............................................................................. 14 2.1. Strategic Context ................................................................................. 14 2.2. The Need for Change ........................................................................... 15 2.3. Investment Objectives ......................................................................... 15 2.4. Existing Arrangements ......................................................................... 16 2.5. Initial Engagement .............................................................................. 17 2.6. Scope and Service Requirements ....................................................... 18 3. ECONOMIC CASE .............................................................................. 20
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 4 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.1. Potential Routes Forward.................................................................... 20 3.2. Preferred Route Forward ..................................................................... 25 3.3. Site Assessment Criteria ...................................................................... 26 3.4. Site Options Assessment ..................................................................... 28 3.5. Shortlisted Options ............................................................................. 42 3.6. Site 2, Netherton Avenue, Renfrew – Advanced Manufacturing .......... 43 3.7. Site 8, King George V Playing Fields, Renfrew – Renfrew High School Consideration .................................................................................................. 44 3.8. Indicative Costs ................................................................................... 45 3.9. Transport Considerations ................................................................... 47 3.10. Timeline and Next Steps ..................................................................... 48 4. COMMERCIAL CASE .......................................................................... 49 4.1. Approach ............................................................................................. 49 4.2. Service Requirements ......................................................................... 49 4.3. Project Development .......................................................................... 49 5. FINANCIAL CASE ............................................................................... 51 5.1. Project Funding – Capital Expenditure ............................................... 51 5.2. Approvals Process ............................................................................... 51 5.3. Revenue Expenditure .......................................................................... 52
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 5 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 5.4. Indicative Costs ................................................................................... 52 5.5. Financial Risk / Optimism Bias ............................................................ 54 5.6. Interdependencies .............................................................................. 54 6. MANAGEMENT CASE ........................................................................ 55 6.1. Project Management and Project Governance Overview ................... 55 6.2. Project Roles ........................................................................................ 55 6.3. Reporting Arrangements ..................................................................... 57 6.4. Procurement Strategy ......................................................................... 59 6.5. Overall Project Benefits ....................................................................... 59 6.6. Community Benefits Realisation Arrangements ................................. 59 6.7. Risk Management Arrangements ........................................................ 60 6.8. Equalities and Human Rights .............................................................. 60 6.9. Communication, Engagement, and Community Voice....................... 60 7. CONCLUSION ................................................................................... 62 7.1. Summary of Shortlist of Options and Next Steps ................................ 62
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6 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1. Introduction This outline business case (OBC) is required as part of the Council’s new structured approach to delivering its long-term strategy for the learning estate across Renfrewshire. It builds on the context set out in a Strategic Case for Change (SCC) examining the future of Trinity High School in Renfrew, which was approved in August 2025 at the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board (E&CS Policy Board). In the SCC, Trinity High School was assessed as working beyond optimal occupancy, with demand for places projected to outweigh current capacity in the coming years. Further, the school buildings and the site of the school cannot expand in a way that would meaningfully improve the learning environment due to space constraints. Consequently, the condition and suitability of the school cannot be addressed utilising the current building. As a result, the strategic assessment concluded that the school cannot meet the ambitions of the Learning Estate Strategy without change. The purpose of this OBC is to articulate a preferred route forward for the project by identifying a shortlist of investment options likely to optimise value for money in delivering change. A longlist of options is presented as part of the OBC, along with analysis and rationale for their inclusion or exclusion from the shortlist. The OBC uses the following framework to present the preferred way forward, utilising an adapted HM Treasury Green Book approach which is based on the 5 Case model: Strategic case – confirming that strategic objectives remain current and seek agreement on the recommendation Economic Case – helping to determine that the preferred way forward offers value for money Commercial Case – working towards a recommended deal by explaining potential delivery models, procurement and engagement Financial Case – establishing affordability and funding requirements Management Case – planning for successful delivery
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 7 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Table 1: Business case development process 1.2. Background The Learning Estate Strategy published by the Council in 2024, aims to initiate a strategic programme of investment in schools, through detailed assessment of the entire learning estate. The ambition of the investment programme is to ‘create the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive’. Schools were assessed against various criteria including condition, suitability for delivering the curriculum, capacity and demand. Using a prioritisation framework, the strategy assessed the entire learning estate, identifying those schools in need of long- term investment planning now, to ensure that the Council is best placed to: • Secure best value from strategic learning estate decisions around investment • Meet the expected long-term demand for education provision across Renfrewshire whilst delivering improvements in school buildings and learning environments Stage: Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage Outcome: Strategic Outline Case Outline Business Case Full Business Case Final Delivery Business Case Stage Activities: • Highlighting strategic context • Making the case for change • Agreeing scope • Considering longlist options • Exploring the preferred way forward and presenting a shortlist • Determine potential value for money • Preparing for the potential deal • Planning for procurement • Procuring the solution • Contracting the deal • Ensuring successful delivery 5-Case Model (stage of completeness): • Strategic 50% • Economic 40% • Commercial 10% • Financial 10% • Management 10% • Strategic 80% • Economic 70% • Commercial 40% • Financial 30% • Management 50% • Strategic 90% • Economic 90% • Commercial 90% • Financial 75% • Management 75% • Strategic 100% • Economic 100% • Commercial 100% • Financial 100% • Management 100% Gateway Review: Strategic Assessment Business Justification Delivery Strategy Final Investment Decision and financial commitment
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 8 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Ensure that the delivery of any new infrastructure complements other key strategic objectives being progressed by the Council to optimise the use of assets for communities and support wider redesign of services that better meet the needs of communities. A cohort of 13 priority schools was identified, with Trinity High School in Renfrew, being identified as the number one priority school for investment in Renfrewshire. This was based on the condition and suitability of the school building, driven by constraints on the size of the school’s site, which hampers the Council’s ability and ambition to deliver an evolving curriculum in the best possible learning environment. A further influence on the prioritisation of this school was pupil projection forecasts showing the school capacity being exceeded in the years to come through greater demand from housing development in the catchment. As a result, a Strategic Case for Change was produced, to consider the context of key issues which, if not addressed, would limit the Council’s ability to deliver the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy. The document examined the operating context at Trinity with reference to those objectives: • Condition • Suitability • Sufficiency • Inclusivity • Digital • Sustainability and Net Zero • Community Facilities and Place shaping • Active Travel The Strategic Case for Change articulates the current baseline position at the school and identifies areas where the limitations of the site mean that the school cannot expand to meet demand or ensure future delivery of the modern and evolving curriculum. This context was set against the aims of the Learning Estate Strategy, to test how likely the current school is to meet the ambition of educating pupils in the best possible learning environments. Following approval of the strategic case for change, significant work has been undertaken to identify options for change that meet these ambitions and align with the critical success factors articulated in the documents.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 9 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 1.3. Opportunity The opportunity to change and improve the provision of secondary education for pupils in the Trinity High School catchment area, aims to advance the objectives of Renfrewshire Council’s new Learning Estate Strategy, and to help meet the ambitions of wider Council and Scottish Government policies. Those ambitions, fully considered in the Strategic Case for Change, are summarised here: • Improving the condition of schools • Sustainability and Energy Efficiency • Equity and Inclusion • Adapting to Future Educational Needs • Community and Public Use • Strategic Planning and Investment • Collaborative Approach with Stakeholders The ambitions encompass Renfrewshire Council’s determination to invest wisely whilst reflecting the importance of operational efficiencies and cost avoidance in delivering the Learning Estate Strategy. Thus, careful consideration of how to bring change to Trinity High School, can additionally help increase building operational efficiency through provision of improved, modern facilities. A new or refurbished school can deliver modern standards and design and contribute to the Council’s Net Zero commitments. Above all, this OBC sets out the opportunity for Renfrewshire Council to meet its overarching aim of ensuring that its schools are modern, accessible to all and support the delivery of high-quality education for learners. 1.4. Scope and Objectives The Strategic Case for Change set out five overarching investment objectives for Trinity High School. Any investment in the learning estate must: • Deliver the best learning environments and facilities possible • Support improving attainment and ambition • Maximise operational efficiency across the estate • Reduce the contribution to the Council’s combined carbon footprint • Acknowledge that ageing schools with deteriorating conditions come closer to the point of being no longer fit for purpose
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 10 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Thus, Trinity High School is identified as a school which cannot match current or future demand; whose building condition and layout hampers delivery of a modern curriculum and efforts to raise attainment further; whose buildings require considerable on-going investment simply to maintain the status quo; and which cannot contribute to Council’s net zero commitments in its current form. To meet these objectives and deliver change, this OBC will examine viable options for the delivery of a new-build secondary school for a roll of circa 1400 pupils (to be revised up or down based on detailed project development) with consideration of any associated community facilities, in line with the Council’s wider strategic property strategy. The school should remain within the current catchment area. 1.5. Summary of Routes Forward Possible options for the future of Trinity High School considered 4 potential routes forward against the requirements for change: 1 – Do Nothing 2 – Retrofit and Refurb 3 – Rebuild Trinity on the current site 4 – Rebuild Trinity on another site Analysis of the routes forward are presented in full in the Economic Case in Section 3. This was produced following the collation of background information included in the SCC, technical information, and analysis of the operating context at Trinity, as well as engagement with school staff and parents. 1.6. Preferred Route Forward and Options Shortlist The preferred route forward for the project has been determined using the critical success factors identified in the SCC, to assess the viability of the various options under consideration. This identified that delivery of change for Trinity High School was dependent on moving the school from its current location and, consequently, on the identification of a new site for the school.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 11 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE The routes forward and options rationale are discussed in greater detail in the Economic Case in Section 3 and includes an overview of estimated costs for delivering the project. The preferred route forward can be described as follows: Address the capacity, school condition and suitability issues facing Trinity High School by building a new school on a suitable site elsewhere in the catchment area. This OBC appraises potential site options that have been identified to deliver this preferred route forward. The shortlisted sites are: Site 8 Rebuild Trinity High School on Site 8 – KGV Playing Fields Renfrew Site 9 Rebuild Trinity High School on Site 9 – East Craigend, Erskine Site 10 Rebuild Trinity High School on Site 10 – Barwood, Erskine Table 2: Shortlisted Options 1.7. Indicative Costs To identify an indicative planning cost for delivering options associated with the preferred route forward, an exercise was conducted to consider the potential cost of delivering a school project at the identified planning scale (a secondary school of 1,400 capacity with additional community-use space). The site at East Craigend, Erskine from the options shortlist and used as an example for costing purposes, being a site wholly owned by the Council. The total includes the cost of demolition of the existing Trinity High School building. The overall potential costs of a new Trinity High School have been estimated as follows:
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 12 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Cost scenario Range New build stand-alone Trinity High School on a suitable site £120 - £180m Table 3: Indicative costs The indicative costs above are provided for illustrative purposes only. Costs are subject to change depending on consultation, design changes, planning requirements and parameters, site locations and geotechnical site characterisation, procurement routes and other external factors. Further detail can be found within section 3.7 (Economic Case) and Section 5.4 (Financial Case) of this document.
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13 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 1.8. Timeline In 2025 a high-level summary of the timeline for completing this business case process was outlined, as shown below. This timeline is explained in more detail in section 3 of this document to show a potential route to construction.
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14 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 2. STRATEGIC CASE 2.1. Strategic Context In August 2025, a business case presented to E&CS Policy Board set out a strategic case for change at Trinity High School. The paper outlined the background and context, highlighting links to local and national strategies for education, including Renfrewshire Council’s Learning Estate Strategy and Fairer Renfrewshire policy, and Scottish Government’s National Learning Estate Strategy. The strategic objective for this project is to ensure delivery of the best quality learning environments for secondary pupils in the Trinity High School catchment area, whilst ensuring that capacity matches demand for school places, both now and in the future. This OBC takes that initial case for change and begins the process of identifying options for change in response to the needs and drivers identified. The policy background is summarised below. • Renfrewshire Council Learning Estate Strategy – a long-term structured approach to assessment of the learning estate through a prioritisation framework which identifies those areas of the estate most in need of investment. The strategy ensures careful planning to ensure that limited capital investment is directed where it will have the greatest impact through reshaping, refurbishing or replacing existing facilities. • Scottish Government’s National Learning Estate Strategy – reflecting the ambition of the Scottish Attainment Challenge, which promotes equity in access to quality education facilities as part of a drive to tackle the poverty related attainment gap and promote inclusivity. • Fairer Renfrewshire – recognising the role of the learning estate in reducing inequalities and improving the life chances of pupils across Renfrewshire • Strategic Planning and Investment – recognising the long-term nature of the strategy for the learning estate, with a clear framework which identifies those schools that require replacement, refurbishment or upgrading • Strategic Property Strategy – seeks to ensure that Renfrewshire Council’s property estate is strategically located and used to its fullest potential, complementing existing facilities and services wherever possible.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 15 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 2.2. The Need for Change As articulated in the Strategic Case for Change document which preceded this OBC, there is a clear and compelling case for introducing change to Trinity High School, as highlighted by a combination of factors, including: • Operating beyond optimal capacity – Trinity High School has a planning capacity of 1,032 pupils and pupil roll this year of 1,026; roll projections indicate that demand will rise and remain at or over-capacity across the next 10-15 years. • Condition and Suitability – ‘Core Facts’ reporting indicates that the condition (rated ‘B’) and suitability (rated ‘C’) of the of the building should be improved, and that £10m of spending will be required over the next 20 years simply to keep the building operating at its current level. The school is built on a site which is too small for an establishment of its size and population. The school has expanded over the years through additional buildings but still offers poor suitability for delivery of the curriculum. It cannot expand further on its current site. Provision of a school tailored to modern teaching requirements will better meet the demands of the curriculum. • Opportunity to maximise operational efficiency – Provision of a school built to modern teaching and building standards will help increase building operational efficiency by replacing ageing facilities which cannot meet modern building performance standards. 2.3. Investment Objectives The following objectives have been identified as key to improving school provision in for Trinity and aligning with the ambitions of the Learning Estate Strategy: • Effectiveness – Meet the aims of the Council’s Learning Estate Strategy to initiate a strategic programme of investment in schools; Ensure that every school is considered in terms of Scottish Government Core Facts reporting criteria; Deliver the best learning environments and facilities possible, exceeding, where able, Scottish Government recommendations. • Efficiency – Provision of modern learning environments to support improving attainment for pupils in Renfrewshire. • Economy – Optimise operating costs for the estate through the creation of buildings which are more energy efficient and through operation of a more efficient overall
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 16 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE school estate; Offer a reduction in the costs incurred maintaining ageing buildings; Operation of buildings of a size suited to current and projected school rolls. • Compliance – Careful planning for the replacement or refurbishment of schools to lessen the impact from older buildings and make a valuable contribution to Renfrewshire Council’s net zero commitments through the operation of more efficient buildings. • Replacement – The project acknowledges that as buildings age and maintenance costs increase, they come closer to the point of being no longer fit for purpose as a Council asset. 2.4. Existing Arrangements A comprehensive overview of Trinity High School was included in the Strategic Case for Change and is summarised below. The key facts relating to its operation are outlined in the following tables and narrative. Trinity High School is a denominational secondary school serving a catchment area stretching from the northwest of Renfrewshire on the river Clyde, across Langbank, Erskine and on to Renfrew and north Paisley. Trinity serves four primary schools in the catchment area and 5% of current pupils attend from outside the catchment area. The planning capacity for Trinity High is 1,032. The current roll is 1,026 pupils. Key facts and operating costs for Trinity High: School Age Suitability Condition Trinity High 61 C B Table 4: Key Facts School Capacity Current Roll 2029/30 2033/34 Trinity High 1032 1,026 (99%) 1,010 (97%) 1,030 (99.8%) Table 5: Capacity and Roll Projection Information (‘Sufficiency’) School Utilities Hard & Soft FM Teaching Non- Teaching Other* Rates Total Trinity High £283,861 £473,053 £5,143,877 £466,093 £211,004* £139,200 £6,717,088 * Waste, Grounds Maintenance, Transport Table 6: Overview of Operating Costs
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 17 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Location No. of Pupils Current Annual Cost TRINITY HS - ERSKINE (MAINS HILL/GARNIEL 40 £33,411 TRINITY HS - BISHOPTON (DARGAVEL VILLAGE NORTH & SOUTH) / BARHILL, ERSKINE (LINBURN/MILLFIELD)/INCHINNAN 144 £73,333 TRINITY HS - BISHOPTON (DARGAVEL VILLAGE) 10 £57,185 TRINITY HS - INCHINNAN (INDIA DR)/ERSKINE 50 £33,796 Total: 244 £197,727 Table 7: Transport Costs Breakdown 2.5. Initial Engagement Following presentation of the Strategic Case for Change to E&CS Policy Board in August 2025, officers undertook some initial engagement, outlining the processes involved in identifying opportunities to deliver change. A survey was issued to parents, carers, and all school staff at Trinity High School, inviting views around current school provision, including school condition, location of facilities and what stakeholders feel should be important to the Council in progressing future school investment. Analysis of responses from parents, carers and the wider community suggested a community affection and connection for the school and its location whilst most respondents acknowledged the challenges the building poses to users. The survey identified the following key themes and discussion points: • Modernisation/refurbishment is the most persistent theme: many describe the building as old, dated, tired and want a significant upgrade. • Toilets and hygiene are frequent cited issues: (cleanliness, locks, capacity, safety/vaping).
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 18 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Social and dining space is viewed as insufficient: calls for more seating, sheltered areas, and quiet/regulated spaces (including for neurodivergent learners) • Sports and outdoor facilities are widely seen as under-provisioned (requests range from full-size pitches and MUGAs to a swimming pool). • Parking/drop-off is problematic; parents want safer, more orderly arrangements. • Location is valued for centrality and transport links, though many note the site is constrained for growth. Responses from school staff at Trinity again highlighted some positive aspects of the school and its location but described issues and challenges posed by the building’s size and constraints. • Physical Condition – Significant concerns include inadequate toilets, poor social spaces, leaks, ventilation problems, and outdated infrastructure. • Central Location Benefits - The school’s central location offers convenient transport links and access to local amenities, praised by all staff groups. • Staff Workspace Challenges - Teaching staff face fragmented departments impacting efficiency; office staff lack sufficient administrative space and facilities. • Security and Safety Concerns - Multiple entry and exit points complicate monitoring, raising staff concerns about school security and safety. Both parents and staff strongly support investment in modern, high-quality learning environments, and highlight the need for buildings in good condition, modern teaching facilities, improved sports and outdoor learning areas, and robust digital infrastructure as top priorities for any future redevelopment 2.6. Scope and Service Requirements The scope of this proposal for change is to provide an improved Trinity High School in line with the strategic objectives set out and agreed in the Strategic Case for Change, informed by an understanding of the operating context. Potential routes forward were set out in an interim update to E&CS Policy Board in October 2025, based on the broad range of options outlined in the Economic Case, below. This included an accompanying assessment of advantages and disadvantages as well as a narrative description of the preferred way forward.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 19 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE To provide a basis on which to consider potential options to invest in Trinity High School, a provisional scale was set as a secondary school of 1,400 pupils, with an additional 500m2 of community space that can be developed into an appropriate community offer, following engagement. (500m2 total site space, 300m2 gross internal floor area). To allow this scale to be translated into building footprint and site size metrics, BB103 guidance was utilised as the best practice metric for sizing. The outputs of this indicate that a secondary school of 1,400 pupils plus community space equates to an ideal site requirement of 79,310 m2 (19.6 acres). The potential routes forward were informed through consideration of a broad range of options for change with an accompanying assessment of their advantages and disadvantages, concluding with a narrative description of the preferred way forward. The routes are summarised here: Route 1 Route 2 Route 3 Route 4 ‘Do nothing’ – Retain the building as-is and continue to operate the high school in its current format Retrofit/Refurbish Trinity High School to improve its overall condition and suitability Rebuild Trinity High School at the current site Rebuild Trinity at a new site elsewhere in the catchment area Table 8: Potential Routes Forward
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 20 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3. ECONOMIC CASE 3.1. Potential Routes Forward In line with the summary of routes forward that are outlined as part of the Strategic Case, each has now been subject to an assessment process to identify the broad advantages and disadvantages to assess the overall merits of each option. This process allows in the first instance, identification of recommended viable routes to be considered in more detail to establish a long list of options to be considered. In the case of Trinity, the analysis outlined below identifies there is only a single recommended viable route forward from which a long list of potential options has been identified. The recommended route forward is: Route 4 - Rebuild Trinity HS at a new site within in the catchment area. An overview of the rationale of why Route 4 has been identified as the only recommended viable route is outlined in the detailed assessments below: Route 1: Do nothing Retain the building as-is, with minimal wind and watertight investment, and continue to operate the high school in its current format. Main Advantages: Value for money • Lower capital outlay required, albeit significant future capital outlay will still be required on building maintenance to secure long term wind and watertight condition, and to support net zero transition, none of which would support improvement to configuration or suitability for delivering the curriculum. • Long term demand on places for Trinity could potentially be managed through strict application of Renfrewshire Council admissions policy for schools. Main Disadvantages: Strategic Fit • Maintaining the current building will not help ensure delivery of the best possible learning environments for all users, nor would it meet the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy or help future proof against further developments in technology or curriculum. • Although Trinity predates minimum space requirements under School Premises (General Requirements and Standards) (Scotland) Act 1967, and Area Guidelines for Mainstream Schools (BB103) it should be stressed that the site is severely
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 21 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE constrained, with little usable outdoor space and the school would not be built to its current size and extent if planned now. • School capacity is not sufficient for demand, making operation less efficient and more expensive • The current building does not meet the ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy in that it will not help ensure delivery of the best possible learning environments for all users or help future proof against further developments in technology and curriculum. • Does not contribute to Renfrewshire Council ambitions for sustainability and energy efficiency. Value for Money • The most recent condition report shows that remedial maintenance cost of at least £10m over the next 20 years will be required to simply maintain the building as it is now. This would not bring any improvement to the overall suitability and layout of the building or its grounds to support curriculum delivery, and the building would have a limited long term life given its age. In addition, further investment would be required to support long term net zero ambitions. • The building is, and would remain in future, too small for its current and projected roll, making operation less efficient. Conclusions: With the disadvantages outlined above, this is not considered a viable solution and will be discounted as a route forward. This option would bring no benefit to the school or wider community and would not serve to improve the education experience of anyone involved and is likely to provide poor long term value for money given the age and condition of the existing school. Route 2: Retrofit and Refurbish Carry out a comprehensive retrofit of Trinity High School to bring it up to Net Zero Public Sector Building Standards (NZPSBS) or better, whilst improving the overall condition and suitability of the environments. Main Advantages: Strategic Fit • Contributes towards net zero ambitions through retention of embodied carbon and significant improvements in energy consumption. Value for Money • Creation of a building that is more energy efficient and may improve operational efficiency • Potentially, less capital outlay required than for a new-build option, although this would require detailed analysis particularly given the dual costs of normal wholescale refurbishment coupled with climate retrofit requirements.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 22 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Main Disadvantages: Strategic Fit • Although Trinity predates minimum space requirements under School Premises (General Requirements and Standards) (Scotland) Act 1967, and Area Guidelines for Mainstream Schools (BB103) it should be stressed that the site is severely constrained, with little usable outdoor space and the school would not be built to its current size and extent if planned now. • The site constraints would limit the design in being able to deliver the full ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy. Value for Money • A deep retrofit is a complex and demanding project requiring careful planning and execution. Although initial capital costs may be less in comparison to an equivalent new build, the costs will still be significant and the overall remaining life of a refurbished building is likely to be less than a new build placing a level of constraint on the long term value for money assessment. • Due to the design of current building and inefficient layout, large portions of the building may require to be demolished and rebuilt as part of a retrofit, leading to the question of whether better overall value would be gained in a new build. Affordability • The full extent of work required, and therefore cost and timeline, may only become fully apparent as areas of the internal fabric of the building are exposed and a full understanding of the buildings condition is apparent. Achievability • A decant would be required for pupils of the school over a long spanning construction period. In a secondary school this would pose significant challenge in terms of maintaining curriculum delivery and retaining access to specialist equipment or workshops. This would add a level of complexity and cost to the project. • Finding suitable premises in which to base the school during decant may be an onerous task, whilst the option of decanting the school community throughout other secondary schools in Renfrewshire risks additional upheaval for other school communities. Conclusions: This option is more attractive in terms of making the most of existing assets, retaining embodied carbon and addressing Council commitments on net zero. However, the option would fail to address challenges around suitability and sufficiency, with the footprint of the current site falling significantly short of current required space metrics for a secondary school of this size and would present a missed opportunity to deliver long term improvement in the learning estate for the community. Additionally, although there may be the potential for a degree of short term affordability benefits, there is significant uncertainty as to whether it would necessarily provide long term value for money and it would also be highly disruptive to the school existing school community during the construction period. On this overall basis, this option should not be considered as a viable route forward.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 23 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Route 3: New Build Trinity High School at Current Site Rebuild Trinity High School at the current site on its existing footprint with consideration for partner/community facilities, while decanting pupils elsewhere for the duration of the demolition and building works. Main Advantages: Strategic Fit • This would deliver a new school built to modern educational and building standards, of a size that allows for optimal occupancy. • It would directly contribute towards net zero ambitions through provision of a new school built to NZPBS standard or better Value for Money • Creation of a building with modern mechanical and electrical systems will greatly improve operational efficiency and a new build provides the opportunity to secure a learning facility with the maximum future life to support long term value for money benefits. Main Disadvantages: Strategic Fit • Although Trinity predates minimum space requirements under School Premises (General Requirements and Standards) (Scotland) Act 1967, and Area Guidelines for Mainstream Schools (BB103) it should be stressed that the site is severely constrained, with little usable outdoor space and the school would not be built to its current size and extent if planned now. • The site constraints would limit the design in being able to deliver the full ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy. Achievability • A decant would be required for pupils of the school over a long spanning construction period. In a secondary school this would pose significant challenge in terms of maintaining curriculum delivery and retaining access to specialist equipment or workshops. This would add a level of complexity and cost to the project. • Finding suitable premises in which to base the school during decant may be an onerous task, whilst the option of decanting the school community throughout other secondary schools in Renfrewshire risks additional upheaval for other school communities. Conclusions: The current site of Trinity High School is unsuitable for construction of a modern school due to the footprint of the current site falling significantly short of required space metrics for a modern secondary school of this size. Any option involving decanting of the school community to facilitate a rebuild or refurbishment of the school would bring considerable challenges and disbenefits. This option would fail to achieve improvements to the suitability of the school environment due to
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 24 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE constrained site space. This option should not be considered as part of the preferred way forward. Route 4: New Build Trinity High School at Alternative Site Build a new High School elsewhere in the catchment area on a suitable site with consideration for partner/community facilities; on completion, demolish the current building and sell or develop the land. Main Advantages: Strategic Fit • This would deliver a new school built to modern educational and building standards, of a size that allows for optimal occupancy. • Contributes towards net zero ambitions through provision of a new school built to NZPBS standard or better, with significant improvements in energy consumption to the existing school. Value for Money • Creation of a building with modern mechanical and electrical systems will greatly improve operational efficiency. Achievability • Flexibility of timescale through the continued operation of the existing school during the design and build process • Avoids decanting the school community with all associated cost and complication. • A secondary school building project on a new site would prove highly attractive to the market increasing the opportunity to secure best value through the procurement phase. Main Disadvantages: Achievability • Finding a suitable site for a new school could potentially present some challenges. • The cost of buying suitable land to house the new school if suitable Council- owned land cannot be identified would add to the costs. • An alternative site could potentially introduce wider considerations such as the scale of required transport that would need to be factored into the overall options appraisal process. Conclusions: This option would address condition, sufficiency and suitability and would be able to meet most if not all of the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy. As outlined above an alternative site may introduce wider considerations including meeting active travel objectives if appropriate land cannot be sourced in an appropriate location of the catchment area coupled with the scale of requirement associated with the number of pupils requiring home to school transport. Such
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 25 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE implications will become clearer through specific site assessment process. However, this route forward should continue to be progressed further to identify alternative delivery options to determine the shortlisted options which present the overall best value. 3.2. Preferred Route Forward A qualitative assessment of the potential routes has provided commentary on their practicality, adaptability and desirability, aligned to the critical success factors outlined in the Strategic Case for Change. This identified those that do not offer a viable means of delivering the required change and confirmed a preferred way forward for the project: Address the capacity, school condition and suitability issues facing Trinity High School by building a new school on a suitable site elsewhere in the catchment area. This route forward was recommended and agreed following an update to the ECSPB in October 2025. Whilst the qualitative narrative associated with each route forward clarifies its viability, further rationale for not considering certain options involving the current Trinity High School and its site is as follows. By considering minimum legislative site sizing, for Trinity High School to accommodate its current number of pupils with no growth, would require a site of circa 57,000m2. The current Trinity site is only 19,000m2, falling significantly short of current legislative requirements. As the school predates the introduction of these current standards, it has continued to operate, but there could be no justification to rebuild or refurb the current school on a site that is so constrained in size. By considering potential growth, and scope of project sizing, up to 1,400 pupils, the site size would require to be 79,000m2 by following the BB103 sizing requirements. This shows that the current site is circa 60,000m2 too small. This concludes that there is a compelling case to focus attention on options generation against Route 4 – to build a new Trinity High School on a suitable alternative site in the catchment area.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 26 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.3. Site Assessment Criteria The preferred route forward indicates that viable options are dependent on identification of a suitable site for the construction of a new Trinity High School. To identify potentially viable sites, a list of site assessment criteria has been derived by considering core legislative, policy, and technical considerations. A long list of potential site options has been assessed to identify sites that present potential viability and warrant further investigation and feasibility assessment. Note that this stage of the process is a broad pass / fail assessment of long list options for viability purposes and is not a weighted scored assessment. A more detailed assessment approach of this nature will form part of the next stage of the business case process. The assessment criteria utilised are as follows: Ownership Sites wholly within the ownership of Renfrewshire Council will be prioritised over those owned by others recognising this provides greater certainty of site deliverability. Consideration will be given to brown field sites where remediation and use will be of benefit to the community, or where sites can provide for the retention and or improvement of community facilities, amenities or green spaces. Site size/area Sites will be assessed against the median area requirements set out in BB103 as sufficient for a school of the following size and description: a) Accommodate a secondary school of 1400 pupils + community space, equating to 79,310m2 (19.6acres) Active Travel A review of sites in relation to their potential to support Active Travel, proximity to public transport, road networks, cycling and walking routes; the potential for increased pupil transport requirements. Planning Sites will be assessed against current local & national planning policies and current land area designation. Placemaking Consideration will be given to potential for place making benefits, such as community and green public spaces. Areas will be assessed for their context within and connection to the local community and how strategic use of the site could bring wider, long-term benefits to the area. Flood Risk Sites will be assessed in line the guidance set out in Policy 22 of the NPF4. Flood risk potential is common and significant across the Renfrewshire estate and dependent on the scale of risk, will not necessarily result in the rejection of a site. The level of risk and site history, along with the impact of remediation and flood protection will all be considered in the assessment of the site.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 27 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE An assessment of site topography will examine factors that may affect the efficient use of the site, including shape, gradients across and adjoining the site, features such as water ways, culverts & previous uses. Previous industrial use may bring issues of ground contamination or existing buildings that need to be factored into site remediation. Budget Budget considerations will principally be concerned with highlighting potential additional costs for abnormal site issues. For example, construction on brown-field sites requiring ground remediation works for ground contaminations. Projects in green or rural areas incurring additional costs associated with installing utilities, and the construction or upgrade of local road and pedestrian routes. Commentary Any additionally significant issues that require consideration, such as location within the catchment area. Table 9: Site Assessment Criteria The following 11 sites were identified as being within Council ownership and in the catchment area and were subject to assessment. The sites were considered against the criteria and the requirements for change. A desktop assessment was completed for each site, which has concluded that there are 3 options that have strong viability potential and are appropriate for further detailed examination and assessment at the next stage. A high level overview of the viability assessment for each site is outlined below and represent the longlist of site options to deliver the project. Any site which is recommended for further investigation as a viable option will be subject to thorough legal checks around ownership to ensure a full understanding of any constraints on development and its likely impact. Should any site require legal processes to amend land designation this would be fully considered at the next stage of assessment and reflected in project timelines where appropriate.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 28 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.4. Site Options Assessment 11 sites within Council ownership have been identified and assessed. The location of the sites is shown in Map 1, below: Map 1: Potential Sites
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 29 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE The three areas highlighted with a yellow circle represent locations considered as potential sites that are in private ownership, with the majority already in use. Having considered these areas, it is clear that there is no additional benefit to either the location, or the site’s suitability that is greater than any site in Council ownership identified through the list of site assessments contained within this business case. For that reason, as well as the fact that a financial outlay and significant, lengthy, legal process would be required to obtain private land, it has been determined that there is no benefit to progressing the consideration of any site in these locations. The 11 site assessments for land in Council ownership are outlined below:
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 30 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 1: New build Trinity High School on Site 01 Cockels Loan, Renfrew
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 31 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 2: New build Trinity High School on Site 02 Netherton Avenue
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 32 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 3: New build Trinity High School on Site 03 Erskine Town Centre North
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 33 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 4: New build Trinity High School on Site 04 Kilpatrick Avenue, Erskine
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 34 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 5: New build Trinity High School on Site 05 Kilpatrick Drive, Erskine
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 35 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 6: New build Trinity High School on Site 06 Bargarran, Erskine
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 36 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 7: New build Trinity High School on Site 07 Broomhill, Erskine
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 37 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 8 New build Trinity High School on Site 08 KGV Playing Fields, Renfrew
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 38 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 9: New build Trinity High School on Site 09 East Craigend, Erskine
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 39 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 10: New Build Trinity High School on Site 10 Barwood, Erskine
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 40 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Option 11: New build Trinity High School on Site 11 Robertson Park, Renfrew
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 41 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Site No Site Name Strategy (Extend/New build/Renovate/Dispose) Recommended to take forward to FBC Rationale 0 Existing Trinity High Retrofit or New Build No The footprint of the current site falls significantly short of required space metrics for a secondary school of this size. This option should therefore not be considered as part of the preferred way forward. 1 Cockles Loan, Renfrew New Build No The existing site is significantly undersized to accommodate a modern High School with the required Capacity under BB104. Site is of irregular geometry compromising potential. 2 Netherton Avenue New Build No Site is within key strategic area for economic growth; education falls outside of these key factors. Noise from adjacent Glasgow airport could prohibit external learning opportunities 3 Kilpatrick Drive, Erskine Town, North New Build No The flood risks associated with this site drastically reduce the practical useable area of the site, effectively brining it below the minimum requirements of BB103. 4 Kilpatrick Avenue, Erskine New Build No The flood risks associated with this site drastically reduce the practical useable area of the site, effectively brining it below the minimum requirements of BB103. 5 Kilpatrick Drive, Erskine New Build No The site is considerably undersized to provide minimum secondary school accommodation 6 Bargara, Erskine New Build No This site is unsuitable for major development with no established publicly accessible routes or adjacencies to suitable routes. Providing suitably sized utility connections would likely require a significant development programme to make connections to existing utility routes on public roads. 7 Broomhill, Erskine New Build No Significant challenges with topography requiring significant earthworks to allow development which is considered cost and time prohibitive. Also, significant challenges in creating pedestrian links as there is no existing pedestrian footpath infrastructure 8 King George 5th, Playing Fields, Renfrew New Build YES This site has the potential to provide multiple benefits, including positive impacts on active travel, potential for place making and efficiencies though shared facilities with Renfrew High School, Site Is Located within the existing Trinity High Catchment and is of adequate size for construction of a Modern High School 9 East Craigend, Erskine New Build YES The overall scale of the site and its central location represent potential significant place making opportunities with its proximity to Park Mains School and the wider Erskine area. Addressing the existing SINC classifications may impact on the planning and statutory approvals process. The existing overhead power line will restrict potential building development either side of the line, however the site is sufficiently large enough that building development could be accommodated out with an exclusion zone. 10 Barwood, Erskine New Build YES Site is sufficiently large enough to accommodate. Design development, for this site would need to carefully consider how public amenities are maintained and enhanced by the project, particularly the existing community play and sports facilities. Potential vehicular access to the site is restricted to the southeast boundary with Barhill Road. However, the site benefits from good existing pedestrian routes to and around the site that could be expanded to create links via the adjoining residential area to the southwest of the site. 11 Robertson Park, Renfrew New Build No Requires closure of existing community assets and removal of existing well used public green space Table 10: Site Summaries
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42 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.5. Shortlisted Options Based on the site assessments and as shown previously in the executive summary, the following options, as previously shown in Table 2, can be deemed potentially viable locations for a new build Trinity High School. Site Option 08 New build Trinity High School on Site 08 – KGV Playing Fields Renfrew Site Option 09 New build Trinity High School on Site 09 – East Craigend, Erskine Site Option 10 New build Trinity High School on Site 10 – Barwood, Erskine It is recommended that these options are taken forward to the next stage of assessment at Full Business Case, to be considered as part of extensive engagement, and further technical and cost analysis. These three shortlisted sites are shown in Map 2, below:
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 43 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Map 2: Shortlisted Sites 3.6. Site 2, Netherton Avenue, Renfrew – Advanced Manufacturing This site was included as a long list option to ensure that all available Council-owned sites in the catchment area were considered before inclusion or exclusion from the shortlist. The site falls entirely within the Advanced Manufacturing and Innovation District Scotland (AMIDS), developed by Renfrewshire Council and key partners to bring high- value jobs to Renfrewshire. AMIDS is a UK national asset, designed to deliver a world- leading cluster of innovative businesses. There are two anchor tenants in place with further development commencing this year. Funding agreements with partners to develop the site include restrictions on how the land can be used, to protect the integrity of the asset and the delivery of long term economic growth targets. The Council has committed to ensure consistency in how AMIDS is developed and to protect the expected benefits of innovation clustering and the long-term investment in the site.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 44 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Development of a school at AMIDS would not comply with the restrictions on land use agreed by the Council, would not meet the Council’s ambitions for the site and would limit its ability to deliver the benefits of development. 3.7. Site 8, King George V Playing Fields, Renfrew – Renfrew High School Consideration Renfrewshire Council has committed to addressing its entire learning estate holistically, following the principles of the Learning Estate Strategy. Thus, where a priority school has been identified, officers should consider whether other local facilities could be improved or upgraded as part of the solution. Given that one of the shortlisted sites (Site 8 – KGV Playing Fields) is adjoined to the location of Renfrew High School, consideration was given to what impact a new Trinity High School on the same location may bring. The primary consideration at this stage of the business case process was to determine if there was adequate land available on the site of KGV to develop a new Trinity High School without constraining a future development of a new Renfrew High School. This desktop assessment concluded that there is adequate land available across the expanse of KGV to construct a new Trinity High School, without constraining options for a future potential Renfrew High School on the same site. This assessment has also demonstrated that through careful design considerations, a new Trinity High School on this site could be designed in such a way that it supported the basis of how a future shared campus or shared use of facilities could be implemented, when the appropriate time to invest in a new Renfrew High School arrives. At the point of agreeing the prioritisation of the Learning Estate Strategy, Renfrew High School was identified as a ‘middle cohort’ school, meaning that it would move to business case stage for investment over the next 10-20 years. However, in considering one of the principles of the strategy, neighbouring schools close to options for development of a priority school could be considered to determine if there is a benefit of constructing within the same development. When considering the option of rebuilding Trinity High on site 08 – King George V Playing Fields, its size and proximity to the current Renfrew High supported the need for a desktop exercise to be carried out to consider the feasibility of the site to
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 45 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE accommodate two school campus. This exercise confirmed that the size and configuration of the site provided significant flexibility that could accommodate several future development options ranging from two separate school campuses with or without some shared facilities developed independently from each other or at the same time through to a fully integrated joint campus Given this overview shows that it is possible to construct multiple development options including a joint campus, it allows further work to be conducted through the next stage of assessment to assess the development options for the KGV site that present the best value outcome for the Council, and any further community views, technical assessments or considerations. However, it should be noted that estimates for delivering a shared campus option indicated a cost in the region of £220-320m. When set against the wider Learning Estate priorities and scale of funding that has to date been made available (£170m) affordability constraints may limit the deliverability of such an option in a single phase. It is important to note that this consideration will only be apply to the option of constructing a new Trinity High School at Site 8 – KGV Playing Fields, due to the fact that Renfrew High School currently adjoins this site. The process of completing the Full Business Case, at the next stage, will take an objective view by considering the financial affordability, technical assessments, and community views on all options presented in the shortlist. 3.8. Indicative Costs The indicative costs are based on preliminary information and should be considered a framework from which detailed cost plans can be developed. The indicative costs have been built from high level information, benchmarking from various sources including the Scottish Futures Trust (SFT) funding metric, cost information from current Renfrewshire Council education construction projects, costs from other Councils’ similar high school projects and adjusting the costings where specific knowledge has been gained from the desktop assessment of the site options. The BCIS cost indices have also been used to calculate inflation up to the end of the anticipated construction period.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 46 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE In considering the potential construction costs, it should be noted that all construction sites are unique and will differ from site to site in ways that will impact construction costs. This is as a result of ‘abnormal’ factors exclusive to every site. No two sites are the same, for example flood risk mitigation or ground remediation may be more or less consequential from site to site, with differing impact on the overall construction costs as to how the design addresses the site. In that sense, the indicative costs should be taken as a guide only, detailed site options appraisal will be necessary to fully understand the geotechnical characteristics and construction cost impact before making any final recommendations. The project is currently at RIBA Plan of Works Stage 0 where at this stage it is key to define vision and goals, identify needs and opportunities and to establish a strategy. Therefore, there is no current design information. Key assumptions and exclusions are required to establish indicative costs and clearly indicate what is assumed as included in the costs and what is excluded at this stage. To project an estimated cost for inflation purposes, the construction cost has been based on an assumed construction commencement date of 2030. All figures should be noted as exclusive of VAT. Key assumptions and exclusions were used in compiling the indicative costs in the absence of any design commencing. This approach recognises that whilst a range of cost estimates have been presented, these remain volatile, subject to external factors and site specific detail that will become clearer as sites are investigated, and options further explored at the next stage. It is important to highlight as part of this process, that no budget will be requested or crystalised until further work has been undertaken into the validation of each option, and a recommendation is made thereafter at the conclusion of the Full Business Case. As shown previously in Table 3, the indicative costs are as follows: Cost scenario Range New build stand-alone Trinity High School on a suitable site £120 - £180m
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 47 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.9. Transport Considerations Renfrewshire Council policy states that secondary school pupils who live more than two miles away from their catchment school by the shortest acceptable walking route, are eligible for home to school transport. Based on pupil census data available for 2025/6, of the current roll, 929 pupils are from the catchment area, of whom, 244 pupils (26%) are eligible for home to school transport. If the location of the school were to change, based on this data it would change as shown below. This does not take into account the future projected roll increase and is based on 2025-6 data for comparison only. Current School Pupils Eligible Trinity High 244 Possible School Site Pupils Eligible Site 8 – KGV Playing Fields, Renfrew 245 Site 9 – East Craigend, Erskine 750 Site 10 – Barwood, Erskine 767 Table 11 – Trinty High - Pupil travel eligibility
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48 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 3.10. Timeline and Next Steps Should the recommendations contained in this OBC be approved, officers will commence work to identify and recommend a preferred option for the replacement of Trinity High School. The next steps in that process are to complete a Full Business Case articulating the recommended option by the end of 2026, for presentation and agreement early in 2027. If approved by Council, work would begin on Statutory Consultation to be carried out during 2027. Timescales would be dependent on timing around Local Government elections scheduled for May 2027 and completion of the associated RIBA stages, with the current anticipated timeline showing that construction could commence by 2030.
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49 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 4. COMMERCIAL CASE 4.1. Approach An overarching procurement strategy will be prepared as the Project develops, and a preferred option for delivery is identified. The strategy will set out the various contracts required to deliver the project including the proposed procurement route, contract objectives, tender methodology and timelines. Pre-market engagement and consultation will be undertaken to ensure a detailed market analysis is completed to test the suitability of proposed approach to procurement and ensure the proposals are attractive and viable for the competitive market. The Project procurement strategy will remain a live document, updated to reflect the outcomes of each stage of the project’s development and responsive to changes in market conditions identified through analysis and ongoing engagement. Bespoke contract strategies will be developed for each requirement detailing the specific requirements and tendering methodology adopted for that contract while aligning with the overall aims and objectives set out in the overarching strategy. 4.2. Service Requirements The project team require external consultants to provide specialist services and works to support the development of the Full Business Case. Services required may include support with timetable and demand modelling, site surveys, intrusive building surveys, legal and planning advisers and cost consultants. The Project team will work with dedicated procurement officers to develop strategies for each contract requirement with consideration to the Council’s standing orders relating to Contracts and principles of best value. 4.3. Project Development Procurement strategy will be developed for the FBC stage that will discuss in detail the most beneficial route to market depending on the proposed final recommendation.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 50 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE The procurement process for the detailed design and construction stages of the project is subject to development. The Council is looking at a range of options including framework routes for procurement of consultants and/or contractors. In the event there are no suitable existing arrangements to use, it is anticipated options will be as follows: • Multi- disciplinary design team (MDDT) procured using Restricted Procedure in accordance with Council’s Standing Orders relating to Contracts and Public Contracts (Scotland) Regulations 2015 as amended. • Construction works contract, likely to follow a Restricted Procedure in accordance with Council’s Standing Orders relating to Contracts and Public Contracts (Scotland) Regulations 2015 as amended. It is likely to be a 2-stage contract model with pre-construction services agreement (PCSA) to allow early contractor involvement followed by award of main works contract once detailed design is complete. • Ad-hoc/specialist consultant support may be required to support the project team. The project team will work with dedicated procurement officers to develop a strategy for each contract with consideration to the Council’s standing orders relating to Contracts and principles of best value.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 51 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 5. FINANCIAL CASE 5.1. Project Funding – Capital Expenditure Until such time that a specific option has been decided to proceed with at the conclusion of the business case process, no formal project exists and therefore no full capital budget exists. The purpose of this business case process is to allow a decision to be made on the best option to commit capital expenditure on, and only at the conclusion of the process will a request be made to Council to commit to the required project budget. This OBC has outlined the current estimated cost to deliver on the agreed route forward, and this estimate will continue to be refined and updated as more detail becomes available at the next stage of assessment. 5.2. Approvals Process To date, work to develop proposals for a new Trinity High School has not incurred any external costs, with all spend being incurred on already budgeted internal resources. . To take the project forward through to approval of the FBC further costs will be incurred on both internal and external resource. This spend is required to ensure the Council is presented with a robust and tested recommendation with professional advice on the specifics of the option. To conclude and present the FBC for this project, a budget will be required and will be progressed through established budget setting processes. This budget is made up of all internal technical resource costs and all external professional services and consultant appointments required to interrogate and validate the shortlist of options. This cost is made up as follows: • Internal technical management costs to deliver project feasibility, cost management, architectural services and project management • Flood risk assessments • Roads and transportation assessments • Space planner to produce timetabling and demand modelling to develop schedule of accommodation • Civil engineering to conduct ground investigation surveys on shortlist of sites
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 52 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Approvals for spending this development budget will be agreed through current project governance to ensure accountability and transparency. 5.3. Revenue Expenditure The new Trinity High School will be owned and operated by Renfrewshire Council. The operating model will align with current arrangements for Renfrewshire Council assets and learning establishments. Potential operating costs for a new school will be further explored as part of the Full Business Case which will be developed throughout 2026. Whole life cost modelling will capture elements of future revenue spend across the expected lifetime of the proposed new school. Operating costs for the current school have been captured and are indicated in the Strategic Case, above. Initial indications are that the cost of operating a new Trinity High School would be broadly reflective of current operational costs including staffing, and facilities management. It should however be noted that depending on the specific location of the shortlist of options, the cost of school transport could vary significantly, albeit this cannot be seen as a single measure of value in an option. The cost of delivering home to school transport must be considered in the broader context of the educational and community value that can be derived through the development of a new school. This matter will be explored in more detail at the FBC stage where each of the shortlisted options will be investigated in greater detail for the estimated revenue costs associated with it. 5.4. Indicative Costs The indicative cost information outlined in sections 1.7 and 3.7 was prepared using current market cost information, including Scottish Futures Trust (SFT) benchmark data, cost information associated with current Council education construction projects, and BCIS cost forecast indices to underpin indexing current construction cost metrics to anticipated future construction date. Indicative costs are based on an assumed construction commencement date of 2030, and all costs should be considered as exclusive of VAT.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 53 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE In considering the potential construction costs, it should be noted that all construction sites are unique and will differ from site to site in ways that will impact construction costs. This is as a result of ‘abnormal’ factors exclusive to every site. No two sites are the same, for example flood risk mitigation or ground remediation may be more or less consequential from site to site, with differing impact on the overall construction costs as to how the design addresses the site. In that sense, the indicative costs should be taken as a guide only, detailed site options appraisal will be necessary to fully understand the geotechnical characteristics and construction cost impact before making any final recommendations. The project is currently at RIBA Plan of Works Stage 0 where at this stage it is key to define vision and goals, identify needs and opportunities and to establish a strategy. Therefore, there is no current design information. Key assumptions and exclusions are required to establish indicative costs and clearly indicates what is assumed as included in the costs and what is excluded at this stage. The cost range, as shown previously in Table 3, gives a high-level indicative estimate based on a number of key assumptions and exclusions which may be subject to change, given the early stage of the project. These will be further refined as the project develops. Cost scenario Range New build stand-alone Trinity High School on a suitable site £120 - £181m The key assumptions and exclusions used in compiling potential costs help ensure full financial transparency. The following are highlighted as examples: Assumptions: • It is assumed the existing Trinity High School shall remain open while new build construction works are ongoing • Estimated costs are based on construction costs at prices (4th Qtr. 2025) • It is assumed services and utility connections are available locally • Inflationary allowances have been made in accordance with current published BCIS Tender Price Indices
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 54 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Exclusions: • Refurbishment works costs to the existing Trinity High School during the new high school construction have been excluded • Legal Costs • Planning Conditions • Section 75 Planning works/contributions • Operational costs, Hard FM or Lifecycle/Whole Life costs These potential costs were produced for a new build high school for the provisional scope identified as part of this business case, which is a secondary school of 1,400 capacity, with a level of additional community use space. 5.5. Financial Risk / Optimism Bias In calculating potential costs, the estimate includes an allocation for risk and uncertainty. For example, it must be acknowledged that cost indications are based on an indicative programme that includes a construction period, commencing in 2030. Where a delay occurs and the programme slips, costs would inevitably change as factors such as inflation are brought to bear. Optimism bias allows for mitigation of any unexpected increases or changes throughout the process but cannot account for all external factors. 5.6. Interdependencies As indicated, the project examining the future of Trinty High School is developing concurrently with two other Learning Estate capital projects. All three projects are working to an overall aspirational budget commitment that will continue to be defined and will require Council commitment to secure the required budget at the conclusion of the Full Business Case process. Different requirements, circumstances and context for each project will have a bearing on the final cost requirements and their share of the overall funding available, making them highly dependent on each other.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 55 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 6. MANAGEMENT CASE 6.1. Project Management and Project Governance Overview Currently, Renfrewshire Council is undertaking several capital projects focussed on learning estate improvements, covering both primary and secondary schools. This work has built on existing expertise within the key teams likely to be involved in any project to improve the provision of Trinity, giving the Council an experienced pool of resources to draw from. Work is underway within Children’s Services to create a dedicated Learning Estate Programme Team to deliver on the ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy. 6.2. Project Roles Learning Estate projects will be overseen at Chief Officer level by the Director of Children’s Services who acts as the Programme Sponsor for all projects. Senior accountability is assumed by the Head of Education for Strategy and Improvement who takes the position of Senior Responsible Owner (SRO). In common with all Learning Estate projects, delivery of change for Trinity High School will be led by the Strategic Learning Estate Manager who holds senior accountability of project delivery to the SRO with day-to-day project leadership guiding the project teams through all aspects from inception, through to construction execution and handover. This leadership hierarchy will ensure that projects are successfully delivered upholding quality across project time, cost, and scope, ultimately delivering the intended outcomes and high-quality learning establishments for all. The Strategic Learning Estate Manager will be guided by subject matter experts who will control and resource the programme with the appropriate skillsets, with professional technical management in construction and the built environment coming from the Council’s Technical Services. It is crucial to note however, that whilst leadership roles have been established, appropriate officer level programme governance has been established to ensure that
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 56 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE there is no single source of programme decision making. This process ensures accountability and robust decision making with representation covering all key Council services. Each project will require bespoke levels of resource depending on the scale and complexity but will follow a consistent approach. A dedicated Programme Manager will lead the overall success and delivery of the programme by implementing and executing full governance and control across all projects, supporting the Strategic Learning Estate Manager. Project management resource will be provided by the Council’s Programme Management Unit to cover business case development, business change processes, and fundamental client-side project management throughout the lifecycle. Technical expertise will be provided by the Councils’ Technical Services who will provide construction project management, contract management, and subject matter expert roles where appropriate through design and delivery. Additional resources will be required for each project with ongoing resource allocation covering critical services such as Finance, Communications, Education, Procurement, and Legal. All resources allocated to Learning Estate projects will report to the Strategic Learning Estate Manager for their involvement in these projects, with decision making being made by the appropriate authority level, either the Project Board, or Delivery Board, as noted below in section 6.3. The Council has developed significant experience over the past 15 years delivering major and complex investment programmes across the learning estate (which includes three major projects currently in delivery), leisure estate, cultural estate as well as major transport infrastructure. This experience places the Council in a strong position to understand the resource and governance arrangements required to deliver investment programmes of scale and this will be invaluable to support the Council’s investment focus shifting to a long-term strategic learning estate investment programme.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 57 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 6.3. Reporting Arrangements This project will be monitored using current project management tools to record progress against timelines, monitor risk, and track change etc. Reporting will be used to manage and drive the project and ensure accountability to the public more generally. Beyond day-to-day project management activity, reporting will occur at regular intervals to established boards, with key decisions and milestones signed off at an appropriate level. At Council level, this project will be reported to the Education & Children’s Services Policy Board for all decision making and progress updates. Where financial decisions on matters such as high value contract awards are required, this project will report the Finance, Resources & Customer Services Policy Board as per agreed Council governance. At officer level, this project will be reported to both a Project Board, and a Delivery Board. The Delivery Board holds the senior officer level decision making authority for the project and will act as the ultimate officer level decision making body within its terms of reference and agreed scope/authority. This Board consist of Director / Head of Service representation of all key Council services. The Project Board will consist of Senior Managers / Heads of Service of all key Council services and will act as the operational decision making body for all matters as agreed in the scope, budget, and timeline of the project. This governance is illustrated in the image below:
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58 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Education & Children s Services Policy Board Learning Estate Delivery Board Chair – Director of Children s Services Director / Head of Service Representation Strategic Learning Estate Manager (Strategy & Delivery Lead) Learning Estate Project Board Chair – Head of Education Strategy & Improvement Head of Service / Senior Manager Representation Finance, Resources & Customer Services Policy Board (FRCS) All Learning Estate High Value Project Contract Awards Senior Managers and Specialist Advisers Project Delivery Team Council Decision Making Level Officer Decision Making Level Project Delivery Level
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59 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 6.4. Procurement Strategy The project team has a dedicated specialist procurement officer who will take the lead in developing an overarching Learning Estate Project Procurement Strategy. In the short term, initial assessment of the project will identify any requirement for consultant services to assist with technical aspects of project development. If the OBC is approved at E&CS Policy Board, consultants will be required to support the project team as it develops a Full Business Case (FBC). This work will be led by the specialist procurement officer and has been referenced in the Commercial Case, above. 6.5. Overall Project Benefits Provision of a new Trinity High School would deliver key project benefits to the school and the wider community including the following: • The modernisation of Trinity High School, making it fit for purpose, with the intention that in future, pupils will be educated in the best possible learning environments • Maximise operational efficiency through modern, sustainable and efficient buildings with a reduced need for maintenance of dilapidated buildings. • A reduction in Renfrewshire Council’s carbon footprint through the operation of a school better equipped to meet energy performance targets through more efficient operation. • A community anchor site in the catchment area providing facilities for public use outside of school hours. 6.6. Community Benefits Realisation Arrangements Renfrewshire Council has an established and successful Community Benefits approach which aims to deliver social, economic and environmental benefits for Renfrewshire’s communities as part of contract delivery. Community benefits are considered for inclusion on all regulated procurement over £50,000 and are delivered by suppliers and contractors in partnership with local organisations and supported by the Council’s Community Benefit Forum and Delivery Partners. Monitoring of community benefits will
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 60 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE be managed through project and delivery boards and a benefits realisation strategy will be aligned with the overarching procurement strategy. 6.7. Risk Management Arrangements The project team has commenced a risk register to capture and monitor risk on behalf of the Council. Risk management will remain an active part of the project management process for the duration of this project with regular dedicated sessions focussing on the risk register to complement its inclusion as a standing agenda item in project working groups and meetings at all levels. 6.8. Equalities and Human Rights Any equality impact on current users and staff at Trinity High School, as well as the wider community, as a consequence of this project, will be considered at all stages it develops. Initial Equality and Human Rights Impact Assessments (EQHRIA) have been carried out at programme level. This will inform the basis of all future assessments, where individual impact assessments will be conducted, specifically relating to the upcoming community engagement and consultation. All proposals outlined in this business case would be subject to formal statutory consultation where impacts will again be considered in detail. 6.9. Communication, Engagement, and Community Voice Informal community and stakeholder engagement commenced in August this year, following publication of the SCC. Engagement has included meetings with headteachers, ward members and the parent council for Trinity High School, and all associated primary school parent councils to keep all interested parties informed of progress and likely timelines for this project. A survey was issued to parents and staff, inviting their views on the school and what they would improve, what should be important for any future investment. Those findings are referenced in the Strategic Case (section 2.5, above). Responses to the survey helped shape analysis of the routes forward and options considered in this OBC.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 61 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Engagement with key stakeholders and the wider community will be key to the successful determination of the overall best value option to proceed with at the conclusion of the Full Business Case. To ensure clear communication and stakeholder input to the process, the project team will carry out an informal consultation on the short-listed options described in section 3.5 from April 2026. More detail is provided in section 7.1 Summary of Shortlisted Options and Next Steps
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 62 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE 7. CONCLUSION 7.1. Summary of Shortlist of Options and Next Steps This outline business case confirms that there is a need to construct a new build Trinity High School at an alternative site within the catchment. The provisional scope to allow progression of site assessment, costing, and options analysis is to consider a school of 1,400 pupils with an additional allowance for community use. The minimum site area required for a high school for 1,400 pupils plus an additional space left over for community or partner facilities (500m² site additional) is 79,310m² as per Building Bulleting BB103 and 69,746m² as per The School Premises Regulations (Scotland) 1967. This business case has therefore concluded that from the longlist of options that have been assessed against the preferred route forward to construct a new high school on a suitable alternative site, that the following options, previously show in Table 2, should be progressed to the Full Business Case Process. Site Option 08 New build Trinity High School on Site 08 – KGV Playing Fields Renfrew Site Option 09 New build Trinity High School on Site 09 – East Craigend, Erskine Site Option 10 New build Trinity High School on Site 10 – Barwood, Erskine To prepare the Full Business Case, more detailed site assessments, further cost modelling, and community consultation are required to recommend a single best value option to proceed with on conclusion of the next stage of the business case process. Taking into account the Council’s commitment to include communities in decision making, the project team will conduct an informal consultation on the options outlined above. The purpose of carrying out an informal consultation during the Full Business Case stage is to:
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 63 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE • Comply with recommended best practice in ensuring that the public are involved in decision making • Comply with UNCRC to involve children in making decisions that affect them • Explain the options clearly to stakeholders and the public • Understand early in the process local views on the options • Refine options based on local views and feedback • Present a final option that is the most suitable for the community and the council • Reduce the potential for community objections at a later stage • Enhance relationships with local communities/individuals Key stakeholder groups that will be engaged in the informal consultation include: • Pupils and parents – parent councils, all parents and pupils • Local community – Community councils, youth groups, local development groups, local interest groups, general population in school catchment • School staff - Head teachers, teaching staff, admin staff, support staff. • Associated schools - parents, pupils and staff of associated primary, secondary or nursery schools • Politicians – local ward members, ECSPB members, local MPs, local MSPs, • Council Services – all council services who contribute to the creation, running and maintenance of school facilities • Future building users – groups with letting arrangements • Neighbours – current and potential neighbours to school buildings/sites. • Statutory bodies – Education Scotland, Police Scotland, Scottish Fire and Rescue Service, Sport Scotland.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 64 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Activity Stakeholders Methods Preparation and options development Senior Officers and SLT Elected Members Head Teachers Briefings Workshops 1-1 interviews Targeted Early Engagement Parent Councils/Parents Community Councils Local Community Groups Pupils Staff Council Services Roud table meetings Briefings Workshops Focus Groups Broad Public Engagement Associated school parents and pupils General public Neighbours Surveys Public events Analysis and Refinement Project team Table 12: Engagement Activity The Full Business Case process is expected to take the remainder of 2026 to complete and will be presented back to a future cycle of the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board in 2027 for approval of a final recommended option.
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Trinity High School Outline Business Case 65 OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Children’s Services Renfrewshire Council Renfrewshire House Cotton Street Paisley PA1 1BR