Learning Estate Roll Projections ECSPB October 2025
Renfrewshire Council · 30 October 2025
Back to Education and Children's Services Policy Board — 30 October 2025 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
Page 1
OFFICIAL To: Education and Children’s Services Policy Board On: 30 October 2025 _________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Children’s Services _________________________________________________________________ Heading: Learning Estate – Roll Projections __________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1 In order to support our comprehensive Learning Estate Strategy, which was approved in August 2024, Renfrewshire Council has worked with data specialists Edge Analytics, to produce a new iteration of a full-estate pupil projection model that spans the next 15 years. This model offers an estimate of the number of pupils expected to attend each of Renfrewshire’s primary and secondary mainstream schools. The full overview of estate projection for the next 15 years can be found in Appendix 1. 1.2 Analysis of key components of the projections are outlined in this report with explanation of some differences from previous iterations of the model. __________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1 The Board is asked to: 2.1.1. Note the contents of this report, including the 15-year roll projection estimates for each of Renfrewshire’s primary and secondary mainstream schools. 2.1.2. Note the insertion of two scenarios per school, which are based on ‘medium’ and ‘high’ projections in recognition of the uncertainty naturally associated with roll projection modelling over a long-term basis.
Page 2
OFFICIAL 3. Background 3.1. Renfrewshire Council has continued to work in partnership with Edge Analytics to produce an updated roll projection model for the primary and secondary learning estate. 3.2. Work has been ongoing with Edge Analytics since early 2023, with progressive development in the modelling over the last two years. 3.3. The methodology and data used to create the modelled projections is outlined further in this report. This updated model has been developed using the latest iteration of available data and building on the 10-year model which was presented to Board in October 2024, the projection period has been extended to a 15-year period, to support the longer-term strategic estate planning being progressed by the Council. 3.4. A further difference can be evidenced in the latest projection model with each school now showing a ‘medium’ projection and a ‘high’ projection scenario. This method allows a range to be applied per school, rather than presenting a single fixed projection per school recognising the inherent uncertainties associated with modelling very long-term school roll projection. This allows consideration of the fact that projection models use best estimates and assumptions across a wide range of input variables that will ultimately impact and influence actual pupil numbers that emerge in the future, and therefore recognises a range of upper and lower projection scenarios provides a more effective output to support long-term strategic planning. By providing a range, it will allow scenarios to be planned for, and potential circumstances to be considered where the high model could arise. Further detail on the differences between these projections is shown further down in this report. 3.5. In Appendix 1 of this report, a table outlining the 15-year projections for all schools in Renfrewshire is provided. It should be noted this does not include the Council’s two additional support needs schools, Riverbrae and Mary Russell, as admissions to these establishments are allocated on a needs basis, which cannot be projected through a roll-projection model for catchment demand. __________________________________________________________________ 4. Roll Projection Methodology 4.1. The purpose of conducting a pupil-projection forecast is to determine an approximation of the future expected number of pupils that require primary or secondary education in Renfrewshire to support long-term strategic planning and decision-making. 4.2. This projection methodology is built on a foundation of historical data for births, current NHS data, primary and secondary school census information, and Renfrewshire’s Housing Land Audit (HLA) which outlines future known development in the area. 4.3. An important aspect of roll projection models is they are merely an informed estimate. There are many significant variables, including the fundamental aspect that the expected number of births in an exact geographical area can only be estimated based on trends, and assumptions based off national
Page 3
OFFICIAL trajectory. Pupil projections produced through these models are therefore best used for high-level future planning and estate management to determine any intervention that may be required in years to come. 4.4. With the above information, pupil projection models can be used to both mitigate any potential capacity pressures and strategically plan the most appropriate size and scale of estate in line with the Council’s Learning Estate Strategy. 4.5. A summary of the process flow for producing the pupil projections is shown below. This process combines all relevant data sets and completes a cohort progression with pupils moving ahead a stage as each projection year progresses. This process is supplemented with additional, or reducing pupil numbers based on a migration factor, and also the impact of all known house building through the HLA. Figure 1: Edge Analytics forecasting methodology __________________________________________________________________ 5. Pupil Product Ratio – New House Building 5.1. As noted above, one of the key considerations in a projection model is the pupil yield impact of future housing developments. This impact can be translated into what is described as the pupil product ratio (PPR) – a figure derived from assessing historical trends that estimate the number of children typically generated by a new housing development. These figures are used to determine the pupils generated when a new house is built and also used to support proposed levels of developer contributions that are sought through the planning application process. 5.2. Renfrewshire has used a PPR rate for a number of decades, and this was revised in 2018 following a benchmarking exercise with other local authorities. It is important to note that the PPR rate is only used to determine the pupils produced for new houses built in any particular year. The PPR rate does not apply to existing housing that has been built in any previous year, to the
Page 4
OFFICIAL year in question. This therefore means that for a roll projection model, the PPR rate is only one of the many elements that is considered. 5.3. To determine the impact of established housing, the model uses current ‘known’ children of all ages (from birth onwards) by assessing school census data, NHS and GP registrations, and applies future birth projections to these houses. 5.4. To confirm, the PPR rate is therefore only ever applied once – when the house is built. Beyond the PPR, a methodology is included for migration in and out of catchment areas and is supplemented by the core data applied against existing households, which a new-build house will fall into beyond the year it is constructed. It is the ongoing migration factors, and the general production methodology through established housing that need to be considered to understand the number of pupils that will continue to be produced through existing housing. 5.5. To support the development of this pupil projection forecast, Renfrewshire has commissioned two scenarios against every school – a ‘medium’ and ‘high’ rate for PPR. These rates have been produced by Edge Analytics using data from new-build homes to determine the likely level of pupils moving into a new build home when it completes construction. The medium rate is deemed to be the most likely to apply across the authority, however, on recognition of differing circumstances and situations based on geographies and demographics, in some instances there could be a higher pupil yield from new build homes. 5.6. By producing two scenarios for each school – a medium, and a high – it will allow school estate planning to be more strategic based on possible scenarios, rather than fixating on a single detailed figure. In some schools, the difference between the medium and high scenario are negligible, with others producing a clearer difference. 5.7. It is important to note these rates only apply to new-build homes, and the model continues to consider deep levels of data in all other aspects including births, pupil census, NHS / GP registrations, with a migration impact also applied. 5.8. The PPR rates of both the medium and high model are shown below: Medium Model Houses Flats Pre-School 0.19 0.04 Primary 0.22 0.02 Secondary 0.11 0.01 High Model Houses Flats Pre-School 0.27 0.06 Primary 0.30 0.02 Secondary 0.15 0.01
Page 5
OFFICIAL __________________________________________________________________ 6. Data Inputs 6.1. This pupil projection model has been produced using the latest available data sets to ensure projections are reflective of expected trajectory. This includes re-baselining the ‘actual’ starting point of the projection which is the true number of pupils in each school in the previous academic year through the school census, which allows cohort progression to be conducted. Intelligence will continue to be gained on future projections as every year passes, with the latest births, local population, and house-building activity. 6.2. National data continues to show a decline in the number of pupils being produced from housing developments which is reflected in the overall projection trends in comparison to the 2024 projections. 6.3. A significant factor that is impacting projections in this iteration is a revised Housing Land Audit (HLA), and how that information has been used. The HLA includes all known housing sites in Renfrewshire and estimates how many houses will be built on each site in future years. The current projections are based on the 2024 HLA which estimates completions to 2031. However, not all dwellings on sites identified in the HLA are expected to be developed in that seven year period. and are noted as being constructed beyond the seven-year programme. In the 2024 pupil projection model (based on the 2023 HLA), all dwellings noted as being constructed beyond the seven-year house building projection were spread evenly over the remaining three years of the 10-year pupil projection model. This led to remaining house building all being assumed to complete in a three-year period which will ultimately not be the case. 6.4. In this latest iteration of the model, as it is a 15-year projection, all remaining house building that currently does not have an indication of when it will be constructed and is sitting in the category of ‘post 2031’, is apportioned across the remaining eight years of the projection model. This has resulted in the reduction of a sharp peak of pupil yields in the early 2030s which was shown in the previous model, as housing development is now spread, flattening the projection curve. The key consideration with this data, is that pace of house building will continue to change each year and is subject to many external factors including economy, housing sales, funding available for affordable housing, and the construction market. 6.5. Analysis of the 2023 HLA used in last year’s pupil projection, compared to the 2024 HLA used in the current pupil projection also shows that there is a reduction of circa 550 houses planned to be built across Renfrewshire. This is predominantly due to completions on sites in the HLA, which has reduced the total amount of housing land available. There has also been a reprofiling of the pace of construction with a significant volume of housing that was noted as being due to be under construction already, not yet started. This overall downturn in output, accumulated with a slow in pace of planned delivery of new houses plays a role in a reduction of overall pupil projections across the period. While some of the projections in Appendix 1 show a sharp decline in the later years of the 15-year period, this is because development that far ahead is not yet known. The Council is currently producing a new Local development Plan that will identify additional land for housing development. The impact of these new sites on school rolls will be modelled as part of the plan preparation exercise.
Page 6
OFFICIAL 7. Key Findings – 15-Year Pupil Projection Model 7.1. Whilst pupil projections for all mainstream schools have been produced and are included in Appendix 1, some key findings to support future Learning Estate Strategic Planning and current project delivery, have been highlighted below. Park Mains High School 7.2. In May 2023, a decision was made to redesign and extend Park Mains High School and limit the capacity to 2,000. A project to complete this extension has been ongoing and is due to start construction on site in 2026, completing in 2027. Figures for Park Mains have been closely monitored over the past two years, to ensure that current school roll remains on track with future projections. 7.3. The most recent pupil forecasts show even with the high scenario, the 15-year peak is showing below the 2,000 future school capacity. In 2024, as part of the previous pupil projection forecasts published, it showed a scenario of Park Mains potentially reaching 2,169 pupils in the academic year 2033-34. It should be pointed out projections for all schools assume current rates of placing requests from outwith the catchment will continue, and have modelled those forward. The Council has clearly outlined its position in relation to how the capacity of Park Mains would be managed, should a scenario occur where the 2,000 figure was reached. The long-standing Admissions Policy would be utilised if required to ensure priority places went to pupils living in the catchment who attended an associated primary school. This position remains, albeit, current projections suggest this would not be required, even in the ‘high’ scenario. 7.4. Whilst in the table below, the capacity of Park Mains is shown as 1,717 (which has now been formally calculated to take account of the additional modular units in place, along with timetable and room utilisation factors applied), the school will be extended to 2,000 for the 2027-28 academic year, showing sufficient space being available in time for an increasing pupil roll over the years ahead. Secondary School Model Capacity 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 2037-38 2038-39 2039-40 Park Mains High School Medium 1,440 1,463 1,517 1,550 1,576 1,592 1,636 1,698 1,775 1,809 1,843 1,865 1,849 1,836 1,809 1,801 1,785 1,776 High 1,440 1,463 1,517 1,556 1,590 1,614 1,669 1,743 1,834 1,873 1,914 1,941 1,930 1,926 1,909 1,911 1,902 1,8981717
Page 7
OFFICIAL Dargavel 7.5. The area of Dargavel continues to be closely monitored due to the significant housing development already complete and further planned. Following the decision to progress to the design and construction of a new 800-capacity primary school in the area, now named Thistle Primary School, construction is due to commence by the end of 2025. This will take the permanent primary school capacity to more than 1,300 in the local area when construction completes in 2027. The numbers shown in the projections are for the Dargavel Primary catchment as it currently stands, which will - when Thistle Primary opens in summer 2027 - become two catchments. 7.6. The Council’s Admissions Policy continues to be used to manage short term capacity in Dargavel, and as a result, a number of pupils have been offered a place at Bishopton Primary School over the last two years. This process will continue until 2027 when the new Thistle Primary School is set to open in Dargavel. 7.7. By considering the information presented in this report about the revised data from the HLA, including a slow in pace of housebuilding and improved spread of development, the peak of primary education demand in Dargavel is flattening, having previously showed a sharper peak around the early 2030s. This is compounded by the reduced PPR rate following a national downturn in both births and pupil yields from new development. This model also reflects the first iteration of pupils diverting to Bishopton Primary School, as they are now captured in the Bishopton Primary School census, rather than being included in Dargavel figures. The projections represent current cohort progression and assume those who have started school in Bishopton Primary will remain there. However, in practice, families living in the Thistle Primary catchment whose child has already started school elsewhere will have the option to send their child to the new school once it opens. If so, the projections show sufficient capacity will exist to cope with this demand. 7.8. The cumulative effect of these matters shows both a medium and high projection rate that can be accommodated in the permanent planned school capacity of over 1,300. Trinity High School 7.9. The previous projection model forecast that Trinity High School was expected to grow in excess of 100% capacity in the coming years and sustain this. With the information contained in this report using the latest data, a more stable spread of growth is now expected in Secondary School Model Capacity 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 2037-38 2038-39 2039-40 Dargavel Primary School Medium 462 591 620 711 787 860 928 977 994 1,051 1,052 1,048 1,051 1,039 1,026 1,011 998 989 High 462 591 620 719 804 889 973 1,037 1,069 1,132 1,136 1,133 1,133 1,119 1,101 1,080 1,063 1,050698
Page 8
OFFICIAL Trinity High. The figures show that Trinity High is expected to rise close to (medium scenario), and slightly above 100% (high scenario)., However the decision to progress the development of a business case for future options for Trinity High School was based on challenges around condition, suitability and site size, as well as capacity, and those remain the case. St Andrew’s Academy 7.10. The capacity of St Andrew’s has been operating above its historical agreed metric for many years. The school is operating successfully through efficient use of space and timetable management, and has done so for some time. However, the latest projections show the St Andrew’s school roll is expected to reduce across the lifespan of this projection. 7.11. Over and above the reduction shown in the current projections, it is also anticipated that with the opening of the new Paisley Grammar School Community Campus in August 2026, young people whose families may have previously made placing requests for their children to attend a non-catchment secondary may instead choose to go to their catchment secondary in the future. While this is an assumption, and has not been modelled, it will be carefully monitored to understand the impact the new Paisley Grammar Community Campus school may have in retaining associated primary school leavers and the impact this has on the roll at St Andrew’s Secondary. Secondary School Model Capacity 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 2037-38 2038-39 2039-40 Trinity High School Medium 940 952 977 995 984 985 997 999 1,015 1,020 1,024 1,014 992 965 943 928 912 899 High 940 952 977 997 988 992 1,006 1,010 1,029 1,034 1,039 1,030 1,010 985 967 955 942 9321032 Secondary School Model Capacity 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 2037-38 2038-39 2039-40 St Andrew's Academy Medium 1,465 1,476 1,492 1,470 1,447 1,430 1,422 1,405 1,405 1,401 1,370 1,361 1,334 1,323 1,277 1,245 1,228 1,194 High 1,465 1,476 1,492 1,473 1,453 1,439 1,436 1,423 1,429 1,428 1,400 1,392 1,369 1,362 1,320 1,294 1,281 1,2481250
Page 9
OFFICIAL 8. Ongoing Monitoring 8.1. Whilst a number of key findings have been outlined in this report, the full projections can be seen for each school in Appendix 1. In some instances, schools show that they could get close to, or very slightly over capacity for a short period. These schools will be monitored and work will take place with the Education Resources team, and within school leadership teams to manage capacities, room usage, and admissions where appropriate. __________________________________________________________________ Implications of this report 1. Financial Any mitigations that are required to accommodate pupils in the short term at local level, or by administering the Council’s admissions policy will bring no, or minimal financial impact. Any financial impact of opening a new classroom to accommodate catchment pupils will require teaching resource costs, and classroom provisions. This is a standard process that is managed in line with department budgets. For any further measures that require to be implemented, these will be progressed in line with the approved Learning Estate Strategy and its associated financial model. 2. HR and Organisational Development None. 3. Community/Council Planning Reshaping our place, our economy and our future - The learning estate shall be appropriately scaled and equipped to meet curriculum expectations and deliver an appropriate learning and teaching experience for all. 4. Legal None. 5. Property/Assets Roll projections will allow the learning estate to be scaled appropriately, with consideration for any future capital investment required to meet the demand needs. Similarly, roll projections will identify any establishments that are showing as having significant surplus capacity that can be considered by the wider Learning Estate Strategy. 6. Information Technology None. 7. Equality and Human Rights The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights
Page 10
OFFICIAL have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report. If required following implementation, the actual impact of the recommendations and the mitigating actions will be reviewed and monitored, and the results of the assessment will be published on the Council’s website. 8. Health and Safety None. 9. Procurement Any procurement work required to address future capacity needs will be conducted in collaboration with the Council’s Procurement team and adhere to appropriate regulations. 10. Risk The production and monitoring of roll projections is a mechanism of risk management to plan the future scale of the learning estate and any subsequent mitigations that are required to be implemented. 11. Privacy Impact None. 12. Climate Risk None. 13. Children’s Rights This report does not cover a new policy, function, or strategy nor a substantive change to an existing policy, function or strategy which will have an impact on children’s rights. When considering any future school provision, the impact this will have on children is a key consideration, and any work will be based around the direct needs of children to allow their education experience to thrive. Whilst children have a right to choose where they wish to attend school in collaboration with their parents, the council’s admissions policy applies to ensure that schools that are oversubscribed can be managed. 14. Cosla Policy Position None. Children’s Services JL/GM 15/10/25 Author: Jack Lochans, Strategic Learning Estate Manager – jacklochans@renfrewshire.gov.uk
Page 11
OFFICIAL Appendix 1 – Full Estate 15 Year Roll Projections Primary School Model Capacity 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 2037-38 2038-39 2039-40 Arkleston Primary School Medium 269 295 282 297 299 304 310 294 281 276 268 263 250 252 253 254 256 259 High 269 295 282 297 300 305 312 296 283 278 269 265 252 253 255 257 260 263 Auchenlodment Primary School Medium 189 195 210 221 247 249 253 257 271 267 271 268 269 273 271 269 268 267 High 189 195 210 221 249 253 257 262 276 272 275 272 273 276 273 270 268 268 Bargarran Primary School Medium 203 216 219 227 226 217 207 196 184 178 162 158 159 162 162 163 163 164 High 203 216 219 228 226 218 208 197 186 179 164 159 160 164 164 165 165 166 Barsail Primary School Medium 316 308 310 321 314 304 297 275 266 244 227 212 197 188 188 187 186 186 High 316 308 310 322 315 305 299 277 268 247 229 214 200 190 189 188 187 187 Bishopton Primary School Medium 398 367 397 389 395 386 389 388 388 340 338 332 326 325 325 325 326 327 High 398 367 397 391 399 392 398 400 402 355 353 347 340 340 340 340 340 342 Brediland Primary School Medium 200 196 205 196 205 208 207 211 209 195 193 187 187 183 184 186 187 189 High 200 196 205 196 205 209 207 211 209 196 194 188 188 184 186 188 190 193 Bridge of Weir Primary School Medium 456 442 421 421 389 371 371 359 358 353 346 347 351 361 362 364 365 367 High 456 442 421 421 390 372 372 360 360 355 348 349 353 363 365 367 369 372 Bushes Primary School Medium 360 330 312 312 307 295 280 265 249 237 220 201 194 183 183 184 184 185 High 360 330 312 313 307 296 281 267 251 239 222 204 197 186 186 187 188 189 Cochrane Castle Primary Medium 135 126 113 99 92 90 87 95 100 101 106 110 112 109 108 106 104 103 High 135 126 113 99 92 91 89 98 104 106 111 115 117 114 112 109 107 105 Dargavel Primary School Medium 462 591 620 711 787 860 928 977 994 1,051 1,052 1,048 1,051 1,039 1,026 1,011 998 989 High 462 591 620 719 804 889 973 1,037 1,069 1,132 1,136 1,133 1,133 1,119 1,101 1,080 1,063 1,050 East Fulton Primary School Medium 231 224 228 233 248 256 262 264 266 259 260 251 245 234 232 231 230 229 High 231 224 228 234 249 257 264 267 270 263 264 255 249 237 235 233 231 230 Fordbank Primary School Medium 263 268 257 240 232 227 221 214 204 195 194 189 182 178 179 179 180 181 High 263 268 257 240 232 229 224 218 209 200 199 194 186 183 184 185 185 187 Gallowhill Primary School Medium 218 218 207 203 208 206 208 197 182 183 178 173 168 165 164 164 163 162 High 218 218 207 203 208 207 210 199 184 185 180 175 169 166 165 165 164 163 Glencoats Primary School Medium 186 181 179 172 178 171 170 151 137 130 123 113 110 105 108 111 114 118 High 186 181 179 173 179 172 171 152 139 131 124 114 111 107 111 115 119 124 Heriot Primary School Medium 243 232 212 199 192 192 198 181 173 165 158 149 141 133 133 133 133 133 High 243 232 212 199 192 192 198 181 174 166 160 151 143 135 135 135 135 135 Houston Primary School Medium 534 532 510 511 500 492 502 473 475 461 434 422 405 383 381 378 376 374 High 534 532 510 512 501 494 504 477 481 468 441 430 413 390 387 384 381 378 Howwood Primary School Medium 123 116 104 97 94 85 81 62 55 53 50 46 43 40 41 41 41 41 High 123 116 104 98 95 86 82 63 57 55 51 47 44 42 42 42 43 43 Inchinnan Primary School Medium 129 125 124 121 116 114 119 123 128 130 133 135 138 136 135 134 133 132 High 129 125 124 122 116 114 119 126 133 135 138 141 144 142 141 139 138 136 Kilbarchan Primary School Medium 218 214 203 193 189 174 167 170 173 172 181 185 191 196 197 197 198 198 High 218 214 203 193 189 175 168 173 177 177 186 190 196 202 203 203 204 205 Kirklandneuk Primary School Medium 477 446 436 423 428 419 392 382 373 361 352 343 339 345 351 357 364 373 High 477 446 436 425 432 424 398 389 379 367 358 347 342 351 358 366 377 389 352 302 272 401 519 184 377 489 489 242 698 377 327 352 352 434 569 217 352 619
Page 12
OFFICIAL Primary School Model Capacity 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 2037-38 2038-39 2039-40 Langbank Primary School Medium 79 75 73 64 59 59 55 52 50 51 52 51 49 49 49 49 49 49 High 79 75 73 64 59 60 55 52 51 51 52 51 50 50 49 49 49 49 Langcraigs Primary School Medium 295 286 279 255 237 236 227 210 196 172 163 154 135 122 122 122 122 122 High 295 286 279 255 237 236 228 210 196 172 164 155 136 123 123 123 123 123 Lochfield Primary School Medium 263 252 262 264 260 263 263 258 258 247 243 239 237 231 226 222 218 215 High 263 252 262 265 263 267 269 267 270 260 256 252 249 242 236 230 224 220 Lochwinnoch Primary School Medium 194 199 189 184 154 139 137 148 143 138 133 133 128 126 123 120 118 115 High 194 199 189 184 154 139 139 152 150 146 141 141 136 133 129 125 121 117 Mossvale Primary School Medium 210 207 203 196 204 205 213 209 199 195 196 184 177 172 171 170 169 167 High 210 207 203 196 204 205 216 212 202 199 201 189 181 176 175 173 171 170 Newmains Primary School Medium 410 403 410 400 389 372 344 335 331 318 313 305 296 304 306 307 309 311 High 410 403 410 401 391 374 346 337 333 320 315 306 298 306 308 310 312 315 Our Lady of Peace Primary School Medium 238 230 241 242 232 230 227 224 225 222 222 217 213 206 204 203 202 202 High 238 230 241 243 233 231 228 227 229 225 226 220 215 208 206 205 204 203 Ralston Primary School Medium 385 382 382 385 377 367 365 365 353 346 339 333 332 331 331 330 331 331 High 385 382 382 386 378 367 366 367 354 347 340 334 333 332 331 331 331 331 Rashielea Primary School Medium 175 161 152 139 134 135 131 124 120 122 120 120 116 116 115 114 113 113 High 175 161 152 140 136 136 132 126 123 125 122 122 118 117 116 115 114 114 St Anne's Primary School Medium 148 137 139 135 132 136 132 124 120 117 114 111 107 104 104 103 103 102 High 148 137 139 136 132 137 133 125 122 120 116 113 109 106 105 105 104 103 St Anthony's Primary School Medium 230 245 274 271 264 275 282 282 288 271 270 264 258 253 253 253 252 253 High 230 245 274 271 265 277 285 286 293 276 275 270 263 258 257 257 257 257 St Catherine's Primary School Medium 206 218 238 254 273 288 273 277 274 262 255 249 242 239 238 238 237 237 High 206 218 238 254 273 290 276 279 277 265 259 253 245 242 241 240 239 239 St Charles' Primary School Medium 398 388 400 381 377 367 359 347 337 326 321 314 309 301 296 291 287 283 High 398 388 400 382 382 373 369 360 355 344 340 333 327 318 311 304 298 293 St David's Primary School Medium 103 91 88 81 76 78 82 84 92 94 100 104 106 104 103 101 99 97 High 103 91 88 81 77 79 84 87 96 98 104 109 111 109 107 104 102 99 St Fergus' Primary School Medium 159 170 151 152 154 137 129 116 97 96 90 82 79 75 78 80 82 85 High 159 170 151 153 155 138 130 117 98 97 91 83 80 77 80 83 86 90 St Fillan's Primary School Medium 94 90 97 99 92 96 102 102 100 98 96 95 93 90 90 90 90 90 High 94 90 97 99 92 96 102 102 101 100 98 96 94 92 92 91 91 91 St James' Primary School (Paisley) Medium 182 168 161 147 148 147 147 148 136 136 137 130 125 122 121 120 119 118 High 182 168 161 147 148 148 149 150 138 138 140 133 128 124 123 122 121 120 St James' Primary School (Renfrew)Medium 527 558 553 550 560 559 542 525 510 498 488 474 467 476 482 488 496 504 High 527 558 553 553 565 564 548 531 516 504 493 479 470 482 490 498 509 521 St John Bosco Primary School Medium 253 257 242 245 240 231 217 216 219 214 208 205 203 203 201 200 198 198 High 253 257 242 246 243 235 222 224 228 223 218 215 213 212 210 207 206 205 434 100 434 459 327 272 459 352 459 242 327 272 459 184 175 184 217 676 272
Page 13
OFFICIAL Primary School Model Capacity 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 2037-38 2038-39 2039-40 St John Ogilvie Primary School Medium 230 244 242 257 259 259 252 255 257 261 265 266 264 266 265 265 265 265 High 230 244 242 258 261 261 255 259 262 265 269 270 268 269 268 268 268 268 St Margaret's Primary School Medium 169 170 173 167 156 149 152 153 150 146 149 152 150 147 145 144 143 142 High 169 170 173 167 157 150 154 155 154 150 153 156 154 150 149 147 145 144 St Mary's Primary School Medium 263 278 298 310 312 312 325 327 330 327 325 322 319 313 313 314 315 315 High 263 278 298 311 313 313 327 330 335 332 331 328 326 320 321 321 322 323 St Paul's Primary School Medium 193 180 167 156 149 141 136 138 132 126 124 119 117 113 114 114 115 116 High 193 180 167 156 149 142 137 138 133 127 124 120 118 115 115 116 117 118 St Peter's Primary School Medium 210 223 216 212 209 201 201 177 167 154 145 135 123 114 114 115 115 115 High 210 223 216 212 209 201 201 177 168 154 145 136 124 115 115 115 116 117 Thorn Primary School Medium 158 152 136 123 113 110 111 102 93 89 88 89 86 82 82 82 82 82 High 158 152 136 123 113 111 111 103 94 90 89 90 87 83 83 83 83 83 Todholm Primary School Medium 408 389 396 384 388 381 374 379 379 362 361 353 345 339 336 331 328 325 High 408 389 396 386 394 389 386 397 402 387 387 379 371 364 359 353 348 345 Wallace Primary School Medium 324 330 360 373 397 400 420 429 420 413 403 391 383 365 365 365 365 365 High 324 330 360 374 398 401 422 431 422 415 405 393 385 367 367 367 367 367 West Primary School Medium 405 403 396 390 389 385 373 374 366 369 366 361 357 350 350 351 352 353 High 405 403 396 391 391 387 376 378 371 375 373 368 364 358 359 360 361 362 Williamsburgh Primary School Medium 327 334 325 333 346 349 353 364 375 379 389 392 391 395 394 394 394 395 High 327 334 325 335 349 353 357 368 380 384 393 396 394 398 397 396 397 398 Woodlands Primary School Medium 264 251 199 177 168 165 168 152 150 155 155 153 149 146 145 144 143 142 High 264 251 199 178 169 165 170 155 153 158 158 156 152 148 147 145 144 143 272 272 761 594 459 327 217 352 272 434 434
Page 14
OFFICIAL Secondary School Model Capacity 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36 2036-37 2037-38 2038-39 2039-40 Castlehead High School Medium 765 753 737 719 690 676 666 662 679 687 697 705 710 728 713 699 683 665 High 765 753 737 720 691 678 669 666 684 692 703 712 717 736 724 712 696 680 Gleniffer High School Medium 1,097 1,115 1,123 1,146 1,151 1,150 1,161 1,138 1,117 1,112 1,085 1,065 1,034 1,016 956 900 863 822 High 1,097 1,115 1,123 1,147 1,153 1,154 1,167 1,146 1,128 1,125 1,098 1,079 1,049 1,033 974 920 885 845 Gryffe High School Medium 963 958 960 930 937 929 885 882 842 805 786 754 749 722 707 687 655 645 High 963 958 960 930 938 931 887 885 847 811 792 761 756 729 715 697 665 655 Johnstone High School Medium 921 869 872 866 869 899 894 896 882 872 827 793 779 764 751 745 752 752 High 921 869 872 867 871 903 901 908 898 890 846 813 799 787 776 772 781 783 Linwood High School Medium 430 436 431 449 456 448 442 456 437 433 422 426 423 425 422 415 412 400 High 430 436 431 449 457 450 444 460 441 438 427 431 429 430 428 421 418 406 Paisley Grammar School Medium 1,008 1,065 1,096 1,083 1,077 1,089 1,093 1,097 1,105 1,114 1,100 1,097 1,089 1,084 1,064 1,058 1,052 1,035 High 1,008 1,065 1,096 1,085 1,080 1,094 1,101 1,107 1,117 1,127 1,115 1,113 1,106 1,103 1,085 1,081 1,076 1,059 Park Mains High School Medium 1,440 1,463 1,517 1,550 1,576 1,592 1,636 1,698 1,775 1,809 1,843 1,865 1,849 1,836 1,809 1,801 1,785 1,776 High 1,440 1,463 1,517 1,556 1,590 1,614 1,669 1,743 1,834 1,873 1,914 1,941 1,930 1,926 1,909 1,911 1,902 1,898 Renfrew High School Medium 841 829 881 875 886 894 900 908 905 901 890 875 859 822 802 789 776 763 High 841 829 881 877 890 899 905 914 912 907 898 883 867 833 816 805 795 784 St Andrew's Academy Medium 1,465 1,476 1,492 1,470 1,447 1,430 1,422 1,405 1,405 1,401 1,370 1,361 1,334 1,323 1,277 1,245 1,228 1,194 High 1,465 1,476 1,492 1,473 1,453 1,439 1,436 1,423 1,429 1,428 1,400 1,392 1,369 1,362 1,320 1,294 1,281 1,248 St Benedict's High School Medium 709 725 783 810 818 825 820 812 799 799 780 774 771 779 776 772 774 767 High 709 725 783 810 820 829 826 821 810 812 793 788 785 795 793 790 794 787 Trinity High School Medium 940 952 977 995 984 985 997 999 1,015 1,020 1,024 1,014 992 965 943 928 912 899 High 940 952 977 997 988 992 1,006 1,010 1,029 1,034 1,039 1,030 1,010 985 967 955 942 932 1329 1230 1425 960 1380 576 1717 1267 1250 850 1032