11. Learning Estate Strategy Update ECSPB 21 08 25
Renfrewshire Council · 21 August 2025
Back to Education and Children's Services Policy Board — 21 August 2025 and its agenda
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To: Education and Children’s Services Policy Board On: 21 August 2025 __________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Children’s Services __________________________________________________________________ Heading: Learning Estate Strategy Update __________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1. The delivery of Renfrewshire’s Learning Estate Strategy is progressing to the first phase of business case development for the agreed priority projects. 1.2. In March, and May 2025, members of the Board were provided with information describing the four-stage business case process that will be undertaken for projects. In May 2025, members were further provided an indicative timeline associated with the delivery of these business case processes. 1.3. This report presents the completed documents of the first stage of this process for the following establishments identified as part of the agreed priority list: • Johnstone Primary School Learning Estate • Johnstone High School • Trinity High School 1.4. A completed Strategic Case for Change document for each of these projects has been included as an appendix to this report. __________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations Members of the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board are asked to: 2.1. Note the content of the completed Strategic Case for Change documents included as an appendix to this report for Johnstone Primary School Learning Estate, Johnstone High School, and Trinity High School. 2.2. Note that officers will begin conducting the first phase of informal stakeholder engagement on options for Johnstone Primary and Secondary Learning Estate, and Trinity High School.
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3. Business Case Process Development 3.1. At the March and May 2025 Board, the following four-stage process was presented, showing how business case development will progress. A more detailed description of this process is provided in the May 2025 Board paper. 3.2. A high-level indicative timeline was also presented in May, showing the sequence of events and time associated with this four-stage process. The timeline showed that two major business cases would be progressed immediately for the Johnstone learning estate, and for Trinity High School which will also encompass a review of other learning establishments in Renfrew that could be considered as part of options during this business case. 3.3. Officers from across the Council have been working to develop a set of minimum viability criteria that will be used to assess options to ensure they meet the mandatory essential components of each theme involved in the design and operation of a successful and thriving school. Any options that are considered at the Outline Business Case will be clearly evidenced against these criteria to determine whether they should be further investigated. 3.4. Officers have also been working to develop a financial investment appraisal model. This model will feature at the Full Business Case (FBC) stage and will be a mechanism of testing the remaining short-listed options against their projected whole life cost. This is a mechanism that will allow evidence to be produced for what option realises best value across its whole life span, not simply by showing which option appears best against its construction value. This model will capture all known projected costs from design, construction, operation, through to eventual disposal or repurposing of the asset. 4. Phase 1 Priority Business Case Development 4.1. As agreed, two priority sets of business case development have progressed, which are the Johnstone Learning Estate and Trinity High School. The first stage of the business case development has now completed which is the Strategic Case for Change (SCC). 4.2. For ease of defining the case for change of the Johnstone Learning Estate, given the scale and complexity, it has been split into two separate SCC documents, one for the overall Johnstone primary school estate, and one for Johnstone High School. This has resulted in the following three documents which can be found as follows: • Johnstone Primary School Estate Strategic Case for Change – Appendix 1 • Johnstone High School Strategic Case for Change – Appendix 2 • Trinity High School Strategic Case for Change – Appendix 3 4.3. These documents contain facts about the establishments as they are currently positioned and set the scene for why there is a need for change. It should be noted that some information contained in each SCC is standardised and relevant to all, and has therefore been repeated for the interests of anyone who reads a single SCC in isolation. 4.4. Members should note that the next stage in the process is for these projects to progress to the Outline Business Case (OBC) stage where a long list of options to address the need for change will be considered and analysed. To support the completion of this next stage, an informal engagement exercise will be planned and conducted with key stakeholders to update on the process and gather views on next steps. Strategic Case for Change Outline Business Case Full Business Case Final Delivery Business Case
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4.5. Members of this Board will be kept up to date at future meetings and will subsequently be asked to approve the findings of the OBC at the next stage. ___________________________________________________________________ Implications of this report 1. Financial Council has agreed to make provision of £2.5m of revenue resource in 2025/26, with similar amounts being committed to on an annual basis each year over the remaining years of the current Administration. The financial model underpinning the strategy continues to be developed, along with the framework and analysis required in the business case process. This financial provision will fund the programme of work as it progresses through business case development. 2. HR and Organisational Development None. 3. Community/Council Planning Our Renfrewshire is thriving - New, and improved, learning estate assets will allow our children and young people to thrive with the best possible infrastructure to support their school experience. Staff, and community users will benefit from modern and inclusive environments. Reshaping our place, our economy and our future - The learning estate shall be appropriately scaled and equipped to meet curriculum expectations and deliver an appropriate learning and teaching experience for all. 4. Legal None. 5. Property/Assets These projects will deliver significant improvements to the learning estate, extending the life of assets, and improving the experience of young people, staff, and the wider community. 6. Information Technology Digital improvements will be delivered through the learning estate strategy, where access to technology for all, will be a key priority for projects. 7. Equality and Human Rights The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report. If required following implementation, the actual impact of the recommendations and the mitigating actions will be reviewed and
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monitored, and the results of the assessment will be published on the Council’s website. 8. Health and Safety None. 9. Procurement Any procurement work required will be conducted in collaboration with the Council’s Procurement team and adhere to appropriate regulations. By developing the business case framework outlined in this report, procurement and commercial considerations will be conducted throughout. 10. Risk All projects are bound by rigorous governance and supported by detailed risk registers. Risk is reported and managed at various levels with scrutiny applied to ensure mitigations and contingency plans are in place. The business case framework set out in this report will directly work to identify, manage, and reduce risk. 11. Privacy Impact None. 12. Climate Risk New, and improved, learning estate assets will directly contribute to the Council’s journey towards net zero. Sustainability is a key concept of all projects. 13. Children’s Rights When considering any future school provision, the impact this will have on children is a key consideration, and any work will be based around the direct needs of children to allow their education experience to thrive. Whilst children have a right to choose where they wish to attend school in collaboration with their parents, the council’s admissions policy applies to ensure that schools that are oversubscribed can be managed. 14. Cosla Policy Position None. Children’s Services JL/GM/JO July 2025 Author: Jack Lochans – Strategic Learning Estate Manager jack.lochans@renfrewshire.gov.uk
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Appendix 1 – Johnstone Primary School Estate Strategic Case for Change
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Johnstone Primary School Provision Strategic Case for Change Version V.1.5 Date: 24/07/2025
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Contents 1. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 8 2. Background ............................................................................................................................. 9 3. Strategic Case ........................................................................................................................ 11 3.1. Strategic Alignment ............................................................................................................... 11 3.2. Johnstone Local Context & School Facts ................................................................................. 13 3.2.1. Primary School Overview ....................................................................................................... 13 3.2.2. Description of Current School Sites ........................................................................................ 15 3.2.2.1. Auchenlodment Primary School ............................................................................................. 15 3.2.2.2. Fordbank Primary School ....................................................................................................... 16 3.2.2.3. St Anthony’s Primary School .................................................................................................. 17 3.2.2.4. St Margaret’s Primary School ................................................................................................. 18 3.2.2.5. Thorn Primary School............................................................................................................. 19 3.2.2.6. West Johnstone Joint Campus ................................................................................................ 20 3.2.3. Capacity and Projection Information ...................................................................................... 20 3.2.4. Location of Schools ................................................................................................................ 22 3.2.5. Key Facts ............................................................................................................................... 23 3.2.6. Operating Costs ..................................................................................................................... 23 4. Need for Change .................................................................................................................... 24 4.1. Case for Change and Investment Objectives .......................................................................... 24 4.2. Rationale of Need .................................................................................................................. 24 4.3. Scope and Service Requirements ........................................................................................... 26 4.4. Main Benefits ........................................................................................................................ 26 4.5. Main Risks ............................................................................................................................. 27 4.6. Constraints .................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.7. Dependencies ........................................................................................................................ 27 5. Economic Case ....................................................................................................................... 28 5.1. Critical success factors ........................................................................................................... 28 6. Commercial, Financial and Management Cases ...................................................................... 29 6.1. Commercial Case ................................................................................................................... 29 6.2. Financial Case ........................................................................................................................ 29 6.3. Management case ................................................................................................................. 30 7. Next Steps ............................................................................................................................. 31 8. Appendix 1 – Full Description of School Sites .......................................................................... 32 8.1. Description of Current School Sites ........................................................................................ 32 8.1.1. Auchenlodment Primary School ............................................................................................. 32 8.1.2. Fordbank Primary School ....................................................................................................... 34
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8.1.3. St Anthony’s Primary School .................................................................................................. 35 8.1.4. St Margaret’s Primary School ................................................................................................. 36 8.1.5. Thorn Primary School............................................................................................................. 37 8.1.6. West Johnstone Joint Campus ................................................................................................ 38 1. Executive Summary The purpose of this Strategic Case for Change is to explore the existing structure of the primary school learning estate in Johnstone and the opportunities that could be gained by assessing the associated challenges it presents both now and in the future. This strategic assessment examines and considers the context of key issues which will limit, both now and increasingly in the future if not addressed, the ability to deliver against the identified strategic objectives for the Council’s learning estate. These key issues stem principally from a school estate with significant excess capacity coupled with a long-term forecast where future school rolls are expected to decline further, and additionally where deteriorating building conditions and suitability assessments are evident across several of the existing facilities. Taken together, these issues are showing to be detrimentally impacting the ability to deliver the curriculum and meet community needs. In this context a decision was made to progress with this review at the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board in March 2025 where it was agreed that the strategic business case should explore options for the wider learning estate in Johnstone, noting a geographical overprovision of school places in the town along with a cluster of schools identified within the initial priority cohort of the Learning Estate Strategy. This Strategic Case for Change is a product of Renfrewshire Council’s new approach to develop the long-term Learning Estate Strategy and establishes a succinct strategic overview of the current context of the Johnstone primary learning estate and key issues that require to be addressed. This initial strategic assessment will support progression to the next stage of the business case process which provides a structured and staged development approach to ensure the Council is able to make the very best investment decisions in our learning establishments. This also works to ensure our establishments are best positioned in the future to meet the strategic objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy, the Scottish Government’s national Learning Estate Strategy, and the Fairer Renfrewshire Policy. This strategic assessment stage examines the current operating context at each of the primary schools in Johnstone with reference to the 8 objectives identified in the Council’s learning estate strategy, clearly articulating the current baseline position and identifying areas where existing arrangements are failing to provide the best possible opportunity to support the Council to deliver against these objectives.
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2. Background Following a previous decision by Renfrewshire Council to approve a £14m investment to rebuild a like-for-like Thorn Primary School in Johnstone on its existing site, preparatory work to deliver the project began in April 2024. In parallel to this, work was being progressed as part of the Council’s new approach to developing the Learning Estate Strategy which resulted in the Council in August 2024 approving a new strategic prioritisation assessment across the whole of the existing Learning Estate. The methodology underpinning this new approach highlighted several growing priorities for schools across the Johnstone area in terms of condition, sufficiency and suitability. Additionally, in October 2024, long term school roll projection data was published following development of a new strategic whole estate model for the Council which highlighted that most primary schools in Johnstone are currently operating below optimal occupancy, with some underutilised to a significant extent. Significantly, the modelling also confirmed a forecast that over the following ten years, overall demand for primary school places in Johnstone will continue to decline and is expected to drop to around 50% of current capacity which represent a significant level of long-term excess capacity within this area of the estate. Further, the publication of the Council’s most recent set of the core Learning Estate Strategy data presented a relatively polarised overview of the existing learning estate. It was identified that, in addition to Thorn Primary, two other Johnstone primary schools ranked highly on the list of schools that were identified as being within the priority cohort for consideration as part of future Learning Estate investment planning, indicating a proportionately high percentage of the estate in poorer condition and or suitability. Contrastingly the remaining 4 primaries were assessed highly reflecting relatively recent construction coupled with high levels of contractual maintenance regimes associated with three primaries delivered and managed via the Public Private Partnership (PPP) arrangement, along with a fourth primary which was significantly refurbished by the Council in recent years. Taken together it is evident from this updated data and intelligence that there is an increasing structural mismatch between the level of demand for education provision and the current scale and size of the learning estate in the Johnstone area, coupled with a starkly contrasting mix of condition and suitability across the estate. In this context it has been acknowledged that a wider area-based review encompassing all the learning estate establishments within Johnstone was required, rather than considering any individual facility in isolation, to ensure the Council is best placed to: • secure Best Value from strategic learning estate decisions linked to the overall Johnstone learning estate, • that the estate as a whole is positioned to meet the expected long-term demand for education provision across Johnstone, whilst delivering improvements in school buildings and learning environments, and • to ensure that the delivery of any new infrastructure complements other key strategic objectives being progressed by the Council to optimise the use of assets for communities and support wider redesign of services that better meet the needs of our communities.
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It was therefore concluded that continuing with previous plans to rebuild a new Thorn primary school on a like for like basis in isolation from and without due regard being given to addressing key issues that have emerged from the wider strategic assessment of the Johnstone learning estate, raised the risk of the Council missing the opportunity to take optimal strategic decisions that would support delivery of best value long term learning estate solutions and community outcomes for Johnstone. Accordingly, members of the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board agreed that the project to replace Thorn Primary should be taken forward as part of a development of wider proposals aimed at providing the best possible learning environments for all primary pupils in Johnstone. This Strategic Case for Change considers information on the current operating context of primary schools in Johnstone, and examines the risks, constraints, dependencies and potential benefits involved in considering future provision. In commencing this study, consideration has been given to the likelihood of major housebuilding taking place in Renfrewshire in the next 10+ years that is not currently anticipated, given the impact this could have on the school roll projections for primary schools. Whilst there is no evidence that future housing development will take place in the catchments that has not already been taken account of in existing long term school roll modelling to the extent that it may materially impact demand on schools, it is recognised that the Council is progressing the new local development plan, covering the period from 2028 to 2038, which will need to identify land for over 5,000 new homes across Renfrewshire. There are no firm indications at present of where in Renfrewshire those new houses may be built, with much depending on identification of suitable land and the commercial appeal for housebuilders and developers. The selected sites will feature in the proposed Local Development Plan due to be published in 2026 where any implications for the long-term strategic Learning Estate will be appropriately identified and considered. A letter of comfort was provided by Renfrewshire Council’s Housing Department dated 10th October 2024, confirming that planned housing on Howwood Road in Johnstone will have no impact on education provision as this is being developed in place of houses that are being demolished. The housing will be offered to those already living in the catchment area who have had their homes demolished and therefore any impact arising from this key regeneration project on school rolls are expected to be minimal. It should be noted that concurrently, a Strategic Case for Change is being developed to consider options for the long-term future of Johnstone High School. Whilst this will evolve separately, neither business case will be considered in isolation and as each is developed, identified options and potential solutions may connect.
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3. Strategic Case 3.1. Strategic Alignment Renfrewshire Council recently approved plans to improve its education infrastructure through a new long term Learning Estate Strategy. The strategy takes a structured approach to assessment of the learning estate through a prioritisation framework, aiming to identify those areas most in need of consideration as part of long term investment planning to ensure that limited capital investment capacity is directed where they will have the most impact through the reshaping, refurbishing or replacing of existing facilities. The framework makes use of Core Facts data to assess the Condition, Sufficiency and Suitability of the Local Authority’s learning estate (Core Facts 2,3 and 4 of Scottish Government’s assessment criteria for school buildings), as well as quartile data to represent deprivation levels, to rank schools across Renfrewshire in order of priority. This approach has illustrated that Renfrewshire’s learning estate presents a mixed picture, with a cohort of high quality school facilities reflecting significant investment over the last 20 years, but with a significant cohort that are either ageing and will require significant refurbishment or replacement in the longer term as part of a 25 year strategy, through to those of most immediate priority that are in poor condition, compromising the Council’s aim of creating the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive. Three Johnstone primary schools as well as Johnstone High School featured among the 14 ‘priority’ schools identified as requiring initial consideration as part of the Council’s future learning estate investment programme. This indicated a need for reassessment of learning estate provision and consequently, existing plans to replace Thorn primary school were to be taken forward as part of a review of learning estate provision across the town. This drew on outputs from the Learning Estate Strategy prioritisation framework as well as the implications of the school-roll projections. This initial priority listing of existing schools are listed below for reference: Ranking School Location 1 Paisley Grammar School Paisley 2 Trinity High School Renfrew 3= Auchenlodment Primary Johnstone 3= Heriot Primary Paisley 3= Johnstone High School Johnstone 3= St Peter’s Primary Paisley 4= Bridge of Weir Primary Bridge of Weir 4= Thorn Primary Johnstone 4= West Primary Paisley 4= Castlehead High Paisley 4= St Margaret’s Primary Johnstone 4= Gallowhill Primary Paisley 4= Brediland Primary Paisley 5 St Catherine’s Primary Paisley Table 1: ‘Top 14’ priority schools derived from Learning Estate Strategy Scoring Methodology
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The 2024 Learning Estate Strategy aligns with the Scottish Government’s National Learning Estate Strategy and other key Council policies. In taking significant steps to improve its education Infrastructure, Renfrewshire Council’s Learning Estate Strategy has a stated aim to ‘provide learning environments suitable for the 21st Century’. The strategy features a structured methodology used to assess the current learning estate and help council identify areas in most need of investment and attention. The methodology will help develop a long-term funding model to support the required investment programme. The strategy sets out a strategic vision with a priority to create the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive, identifying the following 8 objectives as key to defining what is necessary to deliver this ambition: 1. Condition 2. Suitability 3. Sufficiency 4. Inclusivity 5. Digital 6. Sustainability and Net Zero 7. Community Facilities and Place shaping 8. Active Travel Objectives 1-3 mirror the Core Facts reporting requirements set by Scottish Government and this highlights the overall importance of the basic structure, design and size relative to school population in assessing if Renfrewshire’s schools are fit for purpose as defined by the strategy. The overarching aim in Renfrewshire is to ensure that its schools are modern, accessible to all, and support the delivery of high-quality education for all learners. The ambitions set out in council policy and vision include the following: • Improving the Condition of Schools Renfrewshire is focusing on improving the condition of its school buildings, in line with the Scottish Government's commitment to enhancing the learning environment. This includes refurbishment and upgrading projects to modernise older schools and ensure they meet current educational and environmental standards. This aligns with the National Learning Estate Strategy's call for investment in schools to ensure they are fit for purpose, energy-efficient, and conducive to modern teaching methods. • Sustainability and Energy Efficiency Renfrewshire’s Learning Estate Strategy places a strong emphasis on sustainability, aligning with Scottish Government aims to reduce the carbon footprint of school buildings. For example, incorporating energy- efficient designs and renewable energy solutions. This contributes to national climate change goals and ensures long-term savings on energy costs. • Equity and Inclusion Reflecting the Scottish Government's priority of equity in access to quality facilities, Renfrewshire’s strategy includes a focus on ensuring that pupils, regardless of their socio-economic background, have access to high-quality learning environments. Additionally, Renfrewshire’s approach aligns with the government's goal of inclusivity, ensuring that schools are accessible to pupils with disabilities, and offer a range of resources to support the well-being of all learners. • Adapting to Future Educational Needs
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As part of its strategy, Renfrewshire is ensuring that schools can adapt to the evolving needs of education, much in the same way the Scottish Government calls for schools to be designed for flexibility. This involves creating flexible learning spaces that support a variety of teaching methods, including digital learning and collaborative projects. In addition, Renfrewshire has been exploring new ways to integrate modern technology into school buildings, creating environments that facilitate 21st-century learning. • Community and Public Use Renfrewshire's strategy mirrors the Scottish Government’s emphasis on community engagement. The local authority prioritises designs that enable schools to be used by the wider community. This aligns with the government’s call for multi-use spaces that benefit both pupils and the surrounding community, such as sports facilities, meeting spaces, and halls for local events. • Strategic Planning and Investment Renfrewshire has developed a long-term strategy for school estates, consistent with the National Learning Estate Strategy’s focus on strategic planning and investment. The local authority has set out a clear framework for identifying schools that require replacement, refurbishment, or upgrading, and will seek funding through national initiatives where available. • Collaborative Approach with Stakeholders Just as the Scottish Government advocates for collaboration between local authorities, communities, and other stakeholders in the development of the learning estate, Renfrewshire has adopted a consultative approach. This includes engaging with staff, parents, and pupils when planning refurbishments or new schools, ensuring that the voice of the community is central to decision-making processes. In addition, Renfrewshire Council’s Strategic Property Review (SPR), Fairer Renfrewshire Policy, and Learning Estate Strategy are interconnected and support each other in creating an efficient, equitable, and sustainable public sector estate. The SPR will ensure that public facilities are strategically located, optimised, and used to their fullest potential, helping to achieve the goals of reducing inequality, providing inclusive access, services, and ensuring long-term sustainability creating strong alignment with the Council’s Fairer Renfrewshire objectives. Through careful planning, the SPR will help ensure that schools and other public assets contribute to the region's broader objectives of community wellbeing, accessibility, and educational excellence. The desire to review and develop the primary school provision in Johnstone is in line with these policies and ambitions. 3.2. Johnstone Local Context & School Facts The town of Johnstone is the 3rd largest in Renfrewshire with a population of approximately 16,000 people. Johnstone is 3 miles west of Paisley. It is split into two electoral wards for local authority elections, each returning four councillors. Johnstone developed around the textile industry in the 18th and 19th centuries with the population expanding as mills and engineering firms developed and provided greater employment. As textiles and other industries declined throughout the late 20th century, the population of Johnstone fell from a high of 23,000 in 1970 to its present level of circa 16,000. Over half of the population live in social housing, owned by Renfrewshire Council or local providers such as Linstone Housing Association. Northeast, northwest and southwest Johnstone feature in the top 10% and top 5% of Scotland’s most deprived areas, as measured by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). 3.2.1. Primary School Overview There are seven primary schools (four non-denominational and three denominational) and one secondary school in Johnstone. Two of the primary schools form a joint campus; three have early learning and childcare
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provision (ELCC) on-site. Additionally, there is a standalone ELCC establishment in Johnstone and private partner nursery provision with council funding. Two primary schools feature a flexible learning resource (FLR), catering to pupils with additional support needs (ASN) who do not attend either of Renfrewshire’s dedicated ASN schools. Johnstone has a non-denominational secondary school, serving local primaries and nearby villages. From a denominational secondary school perspective, Johnstone is served by the nearby St Benedict’s High School which is a school with a very high condition and suitability scoring. Secondary school provision is explored in detail in a separate Strategic Case for Change document. The current total planning capacity for Johnstone’s primary schools is 1,841 pupils (1,078 non- denominational, 763 denominational). As of the end of the school year 2024/25, the roll across all seven schools amounts to 1,259 pupils (717 non-denominational, 542 denominational). Therefore, in percentage terms, the primary school estate can be seen as working at 68% of capacity. 57% of the current roll attend non-denominational schools, 43% attend denominational schools. Further information is presented at table 3, below. School Primary Type Capacity ELC FLR Auchenlodment Non-denominational 302 Y N Fordbank Non-denominational 345 N Y St Anthony’s Denominational 302 N Y St Margaret's Denominational 272 Y N Thorn Non-denominational 242 N N WJJC: Cochrane Castle St David’s Non-denominational Denominational 189 189 Y N Table 2: Current Primary Provision
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3.2.2. Description of Current School Sites A short description of each of the seven schools is provided below. For a more in depth description of each site, please refer to Appendix A of this document. 3.2.2.1. Auchenlodment Primary School General description: Auchenlodment Primary School lies in the south-east of Johnstone, on the outermost edge of the Johnstone Castle residential area and the school catchment boundary shared with Wallace Primary School. The school has 207 pupils across 9 classes and provides early learning from 2 years old. It offers out-of- school care, and a breakfast club. 20% of pupils attend Auchenlodment from outside the catchment area. 44 pupils living in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 13 at Thorn, 9 at Wallace and 7 at Cochrane Castle primary schools. Auchenlodment primary is 0.9 miles/1.4km on a walking route from both Thorn Primary and the West
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3.2.2.2. Fordbank Primary School General description: Fordbank primary school, sits towards the southern end of Johnstone within a site area of 18,300m2 (1.83 Hectares). The school sits centrally within its catchment boundary generally. Fordbank was completed under PPP programmes and opened in 2007 with the contract period finishing in 2037. The school has a current roll of 246 pupils over 10 classes. It does not have any early learning provision but does feature a flexible learning resource (FLR) wing for children with additional support needs. Pupils attend the FLR from their own mainstream school. Fordbank also has a Breakfast Club. 26% of pupils attend Fordbank from outside the catchment area. 35 pupils living in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 8 at Kilbarchan, 8 at Howwood, 6 at Thorn, and 5 at Auchenlodment primary schools. Fordbank is 0.7miles/1.2km from the West Johnstone Joint Campus, and 1.6miles/2.6km from Auchenlodment primary school.
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3.2.2.3. St Anthony’s Primary School General description: St Anthony’s is located on the south-west edge of Johnstone, with an extensive catchment that covers Elderslie, Spateston, Howwood and Lochwinnoch. Due to the extensive catchment a significant percentage of pupils arrive by bus. Initially completed in 1969 the school was recently extensively refurbished and reconfigured, completed in 2020. Currently, St Anthony’s has a roll of 269 pupils across 10 classes. It does not have any early learning provision but does feature a FLR for children with additional support needs. 31% of pupils attend St Anthony’s from outside the catchment area. 63 pupils living in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including at St Margaret’s and 17 at St David’s primary schools. St Anthony’s is 1 mile/1.7km from the West Johnstone Joint Campus and 1.4miles/2.2km from St Margaret’s primary school.
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3.2.2.4. St Margaret’s Primary School General Description: The school sits close to the traditional town centre of Johnstone, within a mixed residential surrounding. Within the school’s own catchment area, the building is located to the far east but close to the most densely populated region. The catchment serves the main town centre of Johnstone as well as the communities of Brookfield and Kilbarchan. The school roll is at 160 pupils across 7 classes with early learning and childcare provision available. St Margaret’s offers a Breakfast Club. 35% of pupils attend St Margaret’s from outside the catchment area. 53 pupils living in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 26 at St Anthony’s, and 11 at St David’s primary schools. The school is 0.5miles/800m from the West Johnstone Joint Campus and 1.4miles/2.2km from St Anthony’s primary school.
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3.2.2.5. Thorn Primary School General description: Thorn Primary School sits towards the north of the Johnstone area, on the edge of the traditional town centre. Thorn has 133 pupils across 7 classes. The school has no early learning provision, out-of-school care or Breakfast Club. 32% of pupils attend Thorn from outside the catchment area. 42 pupils who live in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 11 at Auchenlodment and 7 at Cochrane Castle.
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3.2.2.6. West Johnstone Joint Campus General description: WJJC sits within a large site adjacent to Thomas Shanks Public Park. The campus, completed in 2008 under PPP contract, houses both Cochrane Castle and St. David’s Primary Schools. The campus also includes West Johnstone Learning Centre and West Johnstone Pre-Five Centre. St David’s has a current roll of 83 pupils across 5 classes while Cochrane Castle has a roll of 101 pupils across 6 classes. The campus offers early learning provision and a Breakfast Club but not out-of-school care. 31% of pupils attend St David’s from outside the catchment area. 57 pupils who live in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 31 at St Anthony’s and 25 at St Margaret’s. 23% of pupils attend Cochrane Castle from outside the catchment area. 116 pupils living in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 46 at Fordbank, 19 at Thorn and 16 at Auchenlodment primary schools. The joint campus is 1.2miles/1.9km from Thorn, 0.9miles/1.6km from Auchenlodment and 0.5miles/800m from St Margaret’s primary school. 3.2.3. Capacity and Projection Information In 2024, Renfrewshire Council commissioned a learning estate pupil-projection model to better understand the numbers of pupils likely to attend mainstream schools in Renfrewshire over the next 10 years1. The findings confirm that for the most part, schools in Johnstone are operating below optimal occupancy and indicate that pupil numbers will reduce further over the next 10 years. As of the end of the most recent 1 Edge Analytics for Renfrewshire Council, 2024
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school year 2024/25, the roll across all seven schools amounts to 1,259 pupils (717 non-denominational, 542 denominational). Therefore, in percentage terms, the primary school estate can be seen as working at 68% of capacity. Overall, by 2033/34, the roll at the seven Johnstone primary schools is expected fall to 1044, or 54% of current capacity (598 non-denominational, 446 denominational). Optimal occupancy is defined in the Learning Estate Strategy as between 80% and 95% of capacity. Analysis of current and anticipated pupil demand at Johnstone primary schools shows the following. All current roll data sets in this document are the most recent available and supersede published census data, which is a snapshot of school rolls in September of the academic year. *Roll at the end of the 2024/25 school year – Source: GIS.renfrewshire.gov.uk Table 3: Johnstone Primary Schools Roll Projections Information in table 3, above, and comparison of the current number of primary school children in Johnstone with that of other towns in Renfrewshire, as shown below, shows that Johnstone currently operates with the lowest average school size in Renfrewshire. This supports the view that there is over- provision of primary schools in the town, due to the fragmentation of school provision across the town. It is particularly notable that in comparison to Renfrew which has a primary school population of more than 420 greater, there are three less primary schools. Town Current Primary School Population Primary Schools Average School Population Paisley 5,231 20 262 Renfrew 1,681 4 420 Johnstone 1,259 7 179 Erskine 1,062 5 212 Table 4: Primary Schools provision in Renfrewshire towns School Capacity Current Roll* Roll 2025/26 Roll 2029/30 Roll 2033/34 Auchenlodment 302 211 (70%) 194 (64%) 196 (65%) 172 (57%) Cochrane Castle 189 107 (56%) 95 (50%) 87 (46%) 90 (47%) Fordbank 345 264 (76%) 251 (72%) 234 (68%) 219 (63%) St Anthony’s 302 283 (93%) 245 (81%) 230 (76%) 221 (73%) St David’s 189 89 (47%) 84 (44%) 86 (45%) 89 (47%) St Margaret's 272 170 (62%) 154 (57%) 141 (52%) 136 (50%) Thorn 242 135 (55%) 126 (52%) 119 (49%) 117 (48%)
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3.2.4. Location of Schools A map of the Johnstone area is shown below showing the geographical location of each of the 7 primary schools as well as Johnstone High School. Each primary school in Johnstone has another school circa 1 mile from it, or in some cases, significantly less than 1 mile. In addition, analysis of school rolls against current catchment areas as outlined in the table below, indicates that 31% (410) of primary pupils in Johnstone attend a school out of their catchment area. Further, all schools a have a material level of inward and outward migration however the net movement largely offset each other except for Cochrane Castle where there is a significant net outward migration to other schools which significantly reduces its overall school roll. * % of roll ^ % of catchment Table 5: Detail of catchment vs. roll information School Current Capacity Current Roll Total Pupils Living in Catchment Attending from Catchment Attending from Out of Catchment From Catchment, Attending Elsewhere Auchenlodment 302 211 (70%) 213 169 (80%)* 42 (20%)* 44 (20%)^ Cochrane Castle 189 107 (56%) 203 87 (81%)* 20 (19%)* 116 (57%)^ Fordbank 345 264 (76%) 230 195 (74%)* 69 (26%) 35 (15%)^ St Anthony’s 302 283 (93%) 269 196 (69%)* 87 (31%) 63 (23%)^ St David’s 189 89 (47%) 119 61 (68.5%)* 28 (31.5%)* 57 (47%)^ St Margaret's 272 170 (62%) 168 111 (65%)* 59 (35%)* 53 (32%)^ Thorn 242 135 (55%) 133 91 (67%)* 44 (33%)* 42 (31%)^ TOTAL 1,841 1,259 (68%) 1,335 910 (72%)* 349 (28%)* 410 (31%)^
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This scale, fluidity and extent of cross catchment movement between each school is higher than other areas within Renfrewshire, and above the average. Taken together, the higher number of schools relative to population, with high levels of excess capacity across the estate within a relatively tight geography, is undoubtedly facilitating the ease of parental/carer choice to be exercised to attend schools outwith their catchment school. There is an evident underlying structural mismatch in provision, and there is an opportunity as part of developing future stages in this business case development process to consider options for how to strategically to deliver a higher quality, more effective and efficient learning estate across the whole of Johnstone. 3.2.5. Key Facts The existing primary schools in Johnstone present a range of building ages and conditions. Three schools were built using PPP funding in 2008, two of which, St David’s and Cochrane Castle, form the West Johnstone joint campus (WJJC). All schools except Thorn and Fordbank offer ELC provision on site. The table below outlines key building information for each of the primary schools in Johnstone. Condition relates to the building structure and fabric. It should be noted that whilst the PPP schools outlined below have been rated as a B by the building operator, AMEY, they are of an exceptionally high quality of condition due to the significant maintenance and upkeep linked to the contractual requirements placed on the PPP operational provider. The suitability of each school relates to the effectiveness of the building to support delivery of the curriculum and community use. A summary of these statistics is provided below: School Age Suitability Condition PPP Auchenlodment 64 B C N Fordbank 17 A B Y St Anthony’s 57 B A N St Margaret's 65 B B N Thorn 36 C C N WJJC 17 A B Y Table 6: Johnstone Primary Schools key facts 3.2.6. Operating Costs Data has been analysed to investigate the operating costs of each of the primary schools in Johnstone. This includes aspects such as utilities, hard and soft FM, staff costs, and matters such as waste disposal and transport. Due to there being two PPP schools in Johnstone, there is also a significant expenditure on capital repayment costs as part of the estate, taking the overall expenditure for Johnstone primary schools to over £13m per year to the Council. Detailed analysis on operating costs will be undertaken at future business case stages. It should however be recognised that whilst a high cost is associated with the PPP estate, these schools are maintained to a significantly higher standard, and there are also significant capital repayment costs included in the overall £13m figure.
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4. Need for Change 4.1. Case for Change and Investment Objectives The objectives associated with any investment projects which ultimately emerge from this business case process seek to align with the overall ambition of Renfrewshire’s Learning Estate Strategy. The guiding vision is to create the best possible learning environments to allow children and young people to thrive at all Johnstone primary schools; to ensure learning environments are fit for 21st century education; that learning environments are of a size and capacity that enables them to operate at optimal occupancy. The overall objective for investing in the future estate will be to ensure the provision of modern learning facilities aligned to meet the projected long-term roll, articulated as follows: • Effectiveness – Meeting the aims of the 2024 Learning Estate Strategy will initiate a strategic programme of investment in schools. The strategy will ensure that every school is considered in terms of Scottish Government Core Facts reporting criteria. The intention is to deliver the best learning environments and facilities possible, exceeding, where able, Scottish Government recommendations. • Efficiency – Provision of modern learning environments will help support the ambition to improve attainment for pupils in Renfrewshire • Economy – Operating costs for the estate should be lower than currently, through the increased efficiency of modern power and heating systems and through operation of a more efficient overall school estate; offering a reduction in the costs incurred maintaining ageing buildings; a reduction in cost through the operation of buildings of a size suited to current and projected school rolls. • Compliance – Renfrewshire Council’s net zero policy acknowledges that the learning estate is a major contributor to the Council’s total combined carbon footprint. As such, careful planning for the replacement or refurbishment of primary schools would lessen the impact from older building and make a valuable contribution to the Council’s commitments. • Replacement – The project acknowledges that as primary schools age and maintenance costs increase, they come closer to the point of being no longer fit for purpose as a Council asset. 4.2. Rationale of Need Renfrewshire Council is required by Scottish Government to collect data on its learning estate to help with assessment and planning at both local and national level, covering the suitability, condition and sufficiency of school buildings. The 2024 Learning Estate Strategy reflects this data by identifying condition, suitability and sufficiency as Strategic Objectives 1, 2 and 3, highlighting the importance of these measures in any assessment of school buildings and their viability. In terms of Core Fact 2 (Condition) All three PPP schools are rated B, all benefiting from the enhanced maintenance schedules that form part of the PPP agreements. However, as per the PPP contract, there is a guarantee of maintaining condition for the lifespan of the contract plus ensuring that the buildings are handed back to the Council with a 5-year major defect free period. This will ensure that these buildings remain in a very high condition until the 2040’s.
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St Anthony’s is rated A, reflecting comprehensive refurbishment in 2020 that included upgrading of both the internal and external fabric and replacement of services, including rewiring, ventilation and central heating. A 2023 building condition survey assessed St Margaret’s primary school as Satisfactory (‘B’), with an expectation that £1.2m would need to be spent on remedial works over the following 11 years to maintain the condition ratings defined in Core Fact. A 2023 building condition survey assessed Auchenlodment primary school as Poor (‘C’), with an expectation that £3m would need to be spent on remedial works over the following 20 years to maintain the condition ratings defined in Core Fact. A 2024 building condition survey assessed Thorn primary school as Satisfactory (‘B’), with an expectation that £1.25m would need to be spent on remedial works over the following 20 years to maintain the condition ratings defined in Core Fact. The latter three condition reports noted that further work might be considered to improve the sustainability of the school buildings. This would be in line with Scottish Government and Renfrewshire Council policy and ambition for Net Zero. Whilst these measures were not specifically costed in the reports, adoption of such measures would likely incur significant cost to support a major net zero retrofit exercise. In terms of Core Fact 3 (Sufficiency), assessments of schools focus on pupil places at individual schools and in localities. When combined with pupil projection data, this can help local authorities plan for the medium to long term, matching availability to demand. The Learning Estate Strategy sets a target for optimal occupancy for all schools of 80-95%. As indicated in Table 2, above, with the exception of St Anthony’s, all primary schools in Johnstone are operating well below optimal occupancy and this position is forecast to be exacerbated in the next 10 years. In terms of Core Fact 4 (Suitability), the most recent assessments for Johnstone primary schools rated St Anthony’s and all three PPP schools as A, ‘good’, indicating the schools are ‘performing well and operating effectively.’ As this assessment is based on responses from school staff, it can be surmised from the survey that in general, staff are happy with the teaching environments and equipment at the school. St Margaret’s was rated B, ‘satisfactory’ or ‘performing well with minor issues, whilst both Auchenlodment and Thorn primaries were rated C, ‘poor’ or ‘showing major problems/not operating optimally’ Analysis of these aspects of the building’s operational effectiveness of highlights some of the opportunities and challenges associated with the schools as they are now: Condition: • The building condition of three Johnstone primary schools is such that Renfrewshire Council faces significant outlay in remedial maintenance costs over the next 20 years Suitability: • Auchenlodment and St Margaret’s generally support service delivery now, however their limited capacity to adapt further (teaching methods, classroom design and equipment) may limit this in future • The design of Thorn primary hinders delivery now. Sufficiency: • There will be an ongoing demand for primary education in Johnstone albeit with demand continuing to fall in line with projections. • Capacity currently outstrips demand
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Provision of investment to improve overall primary school estate condition, suitability and sufficiency whilst addressing significant underlying excess capacity in a way that maximises use of the best available facilities in Johnstone, offers an opportunity to ensure all primary education is delivered in modern, well-designed schools, equipped with modern facilities and infrastructure, which match projected demand. Additionally, making the most of existing schools in this way also offers the prospect of lower operating and maintenance costs and would contribute to the Council’s net zero ambitions. 4.3. Scope and Service Requirements As work the business case process progresses to identify a preferred way forward for primary school provision in Johnstone and associated investment priorities, officers will work to articulate the scope and service requirements involved in providing a school that satisfies the educational and community needs and vision identified in the Learning Estate Strategy. Future iterations of this business case will identify the minimum viability criteria (MVC) for those key services, business functions and operational capabilities required to deliver the stated ambition to create the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive. The MVC for delivery of a modern, accessible learning environment that meets the business needs identified here will be broken down as follows: • Core services and aspects representing the essential changes, without which, the project cannot be judged as a success • Desirable services and aspects representing the additional changes which the project can potentially justify on a cost/benefit basis and therefore provide long term value for money • Optional services and aspects representing possible changes which the project can potentially justify on a marginal low cost/affordability basis. Such an approach will assist in avoiding ‘scope creep during any options appraisal stage of the project. The following represent a starting point in any discussion of MVC for current learning estate projects: • Must meet the vision and ambition of the Learning Estate strategy • Must be affordable within the wider goals of the Learning Estate Strategy • Must offer best value • Must not limit the ability to address competing priorities • Must have the potential to cater for wider community use and identified need 4.4. Main Benefits • The overarching benefit of the approach articulated in this business case will be the identification of the key investment priorities that will support the modernisation of the primary school estate, making it fit for purpose, and ensuring the most productive use of the overall learning estate across Johnstone is achieved to ensure all pupils will be educated in the best possible learning environments over the long term and the learning estate operates a successful anchor of community assets in line with the Council’s wider strategic property ambitions. • Given the current position across the existing estate, a reduction in operating costs and cost avoidance are key benefits of an approach that seeks to ensure that all schools in Johnstone operate at optimal occupancy, better meeting current and future demand. • A reduction in Renfrewshire Council’s carbon footprint through the operation of a school better equipped to meet energy performance targets through more efficient operation.
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4.5. Main Risks & Constraints All options developed in the next steps of business case process will fully consider risks and the feasibility of being able to deliver proposed solutions as well as wider risk that require to be considered as part of a wider strategic investment programme of significant scale, including any future changes to key drivers on school roll projections, long term affordability requirements, capacity to deliver proposals, identifying a suitable site for any option that includes a new build school, or being able to decant or work around an operational school. 4.6. Dependencies • Review of secondary school provision in Johnstone • Renfrewshire Council’s Strategic Property Review – The Strategic Property Review recognises that schools are a significant portion of the property portfolio and that there is an opportunity to ensure Council optimises use of facilities through colocation. • ASN Provision – Future strategy for ASN provision will be reflected in proposals for changes to the learning estate in Johnstone. This will be managed through direct links to the Inclusion team and the ASN management team. • Community use – considering the dependency to the Strategic Property Review, there is a further dependency to understand the community needs in designing new learning estate provisions. • Early years provision – it is essential to consider early years with any reprovision or new build establishment where spaces currently exist in the locality.
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5. Economic Case 5.1. Critical success factors The critical success factors described here will develop further with the Five Case Model. They will help to identify and assess a long-list options and to identify a preferred way forward for the project in future iterations of this business case Strategic fit and business needs • How well will options meet the objective of providing a proposed investment priorities to complement and enhance the quality of school provision in Johnstone? • How effectively will options overcome the strategic challenges identified of operating schools which are in poor condition with excess capacity and high operational costs? • How well can the options fit Renfrewshire Council’s Learning Estate Strategy and other Council and Scottish Government policies and ambitions for education? Potential Value for Money • How effectively will the options optimise the social, economic and environmental value to the community in Johnstone and the wider learning estate in terms of potential costs, benefits and risks? Supplier capacity and capability • Will options match the ability of providers to deliver any required design and construction services? • How attractive will options appear to potential suppliers of design and construction services? Potential affordability • Can options be funded from available sources of finance? • How easily will options align with resourcing constraints recognising the Council will continue to face affordability constraints over the long term in relation to the scale of investment that is both affordable in the short term but also financially sustainable in the long term.? Potential achievability • How likely is it that options will match Renfrewshire Council’s ability to respond to and facilitate the required changes? • Will options match the skills at Renfrewshire Council required for successful delivery? • How well will the options seek to address the aspiration, need and ambition of the school and wider community across Johnstone.
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6. Commercial, Financial and Management Cases 6.1. Commercial Case The marketplace for design and construction services in Scotland is mature and well-developed, particularly in the central belt, where there is a good choice of multi-disciplinary consultancies, Tier 1 contractors and specialist sub-contractors. Whilst there is proven experience in delivering complex public sector infrastructure, such as building new schools and refurbishing existing schools, it is important to stress that the construction market remains more volatile relative to long term historic conditions. It may, however, be inferred that the market is well-placed to cater to any options involving new-build or retrofitted schools. Such projects offer high-profile and high value opportunities for companies to showcase capabilities and expertise, adding to their attraction. Similarly, Renfrewshire Council’s approach to collaborative procurement offers alignment to national procurement frameworks, simplifying access to opportunities and reducing bidding costs for suppliers. Risk allocation is a key factor in market engagement, with the use of standardised contracts (such as SBCC) common to Renfrewshire Council procurement practice, helping balance the approach to risk sharing. Key risks are generally managed through early contractor involvement and active pre-construction planning. Construction projects such as new school building typically follow a design-and-build or 2-stage tender model, with cost certainty delivered through target cost arrangements. Such arrangements are familiar to suppliers in Scotland and promote Renfrewshire Council’s objectives for value for money and delivery assurance. The Council’s procurement strategy outlines its commitment to maximising public value through economies of scale, sustainable procurement and collaborative delivery of projects. The strategy emphasises community benefits, sustainability in construction and prompt payment as key to enhancing the attractiveness of a project. As the Council progresses the wider Learning Estate Strategy and greater certainty is established over the scale and timing of planned investment projects there will be a specific workstream to develop an associated procurement strategy for the Council. On the assumption the Council will, through the Learning Estate Strategy, begin to establish a sustained pipeline of future investment projects at scale, this will present the opportunity to consider a range of strategic procurement approaches to secure long term benefits for the Council in terms of value for money and management of risks across procurement activity, construction sector, economic & financial risks as well as project specific risk. Opportunities in this regard will be explored and outlined in greater detail as the business case process moves towards the final stages. 6.2. Financial Case Renfrewshire Council set a balanced budget of £571.5m for 2025/26 which includes a grant from Scottish Government of £469m. Despite continuing economic and financial pressures, the council has been able to demonstrate prudent financial management in maintaining a reserve of £10m and a projected underspend of £1.6m as of January 2025. This balanced revenue position has been maintained despite continuing constraints due to rising service demands, inflation and wider economic uncertainty. Ongoing commitment to social equity and policies that support the vulnerable in Renfrewshire may place some strain on, and limit flexibility of, council’s ability to spend without offsetting savings or seeking alternative sources of income. The strategic overview and Case for Change presented in this document has highlighted the underlying need for investment in key areas of the existing Johnstone Learning Estate. With an ageing estate in poor
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condition this situation is expected to add further financial demand to the Council with no intervention. It is also evident that notwithstanding affordability and financial sustainability considerations, there is an opportunity to invest in the Johnstone Learning Estate to be able to achieve the stated ambitions of the Learning Estate Strategy. In this context and despite the current and expected continuation of financial challenge over the medium term, the Council has put in place arrangements to secure in the region of £170m of initial future investment capacity to support the strategic learning estate. It has been recognised that the scale of investment that will be required across the whole learning estate over the full 25 year strategic planning period will be very significant and likely to run into billions of pounds to deliver the ambitions over the long term. The Council will therefore be required to continue to strategically plan for growing this investment capacity over the long term to ensure as an organisation investment priorities that are approved to move forward are both affordable to deliver but critically are financially sustainable over the very long term and this will form a key part of the overall business case process as it progresses. 6.3. Management case Currently, Renfrewshire Council is undertaking several capital projects focussed on learning estate improvements, including at primary schools. This work has built on existing expertise within the key teams likely to be involved in any project to improve the provision of primary education in Johnstone, giving the Council an experienced pool of resources to draw from. Work is underway within Children’s Services to create a dedicated Learning Estate Programme Team to deliver on the ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy. Learning Estate projects will be overseen at Chief Officer level by the Director of Children’s Services who acts as Senior Responsible Owner (SRO) for all projects, with senior leadership being assumed by the Head of Education for Strategy and Improvement on behalf of the Director. All Learning Estate projects will be led by the Strategic Learning Estate Manager who holds senior accountability to the SRO with day-to-day project leadership covering all aspects of projects from inception, business case delivery, design, through to construction execution. This leadership hierarchy will ensure that projects are successfully delivered upholding quality across project time, cost, and scope, ultimately delivering the intended outcomes and high-quality learning establishments for all. Each project will require bespoke levels of resource depending on the scale and complexity but will follow a consistent approach. A dedicated Programme Manager will lead the overall success and delivery of the programme by implementing and executing full governance and control across all projects, supporting the Strategic Learning Estate Manager. Project management resource will be provided by the Council’s Programme Management Unit to cover business case development, business change processes, and fundamental project management governance throughout the lifecycle. Technical expertise will be provided by the Councils’ Property Services who will provide construction project management, contract management, and subject matter expert roles where appropriate through design and delivery. Additional resources will be required for each project with ongoing resource allocation underway covering critical services such as Finance, Communications, Education, Procurement, and Legal. All resources allocated to Learning Estate projects will report to the Strategic Learning Estate Manager for their involvement in these projects. Given the scale and complexity expected in some cases, support and professional advice will be provided by the Technical Services Programme Manager, and the Head of Facilities and Property Services, Managing Solicitor (Projects), and the Strategic Category Manager where appropriate.
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All projects will be monitored using standard project management tools, and will report to the Learning Estate Project Board, the Learning Estate Delivery Board and the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board at agreed intervals. The Council has developed significant experience over the past 15 years delivering major and complex investment programmes across the learning estate (which includes three major projects currently in delivery), leisure estate, cultural estate as well as major transport infrastructure. This experience places the Council in a strong position to understand the resource and governance arrangements required to deliver investment programmes of scale and this will be invaluable to support the Council’s investment focus shifting to a long-term strategic learning estate investment programme. 7. Next Steps Following the provision of the information set out in this document, it is clear that a positive change for the town of Johnstone is required to address a declining school population, with a number of schools that are of poor condition, and not able to suitably deliver an evolving curriculum or support community needs. By utilising the information set out in this Strategic Case for Change, the overall learning estate in Johnstone will now progress to the Outline Business Case (OBC) stage. At this stage, a long list of options will be identified and subsequently analysed to objectively reduce to a short list of viable options. These options should be capable of addressing the issues set out in this Case for Change and seek to deliver on the specific objectives of Renfrewshire’s Learning Estate Strategy whilst working to deliver the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive.
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8. Appendix A – Full Description of School Sites 8.1. Description of Current School Sites 8.1.1. Auchenlodment Primary School General description: Auchenlodment Primary School lies in the south-east of Johnstone, on the outermost edge of the Johnstone Castle residential area and the school catchment boundary shared with Wallace Primary School. The school has 207 pupils across 9 classes and provides early learning and childcare from 2 years old. It offers out-of-school care, in the morning and afternoon, and a breakfast club. 20% of pupils attend Auchenlodment from outside the catchment area. 44 pupils living in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 13 at Thorn, 9 at Wallace and 7 at Cochrane Castle primary schools. Auchenlodment primary is 0.9 miles/1.4km on a walking route from both Thorn Primary and the West Johnstone Joint Campus. During the 2024/25 school year no pupils required council-arranged transport to attend Auchenlodment primary. The area of Johnstone Castle is principally residential which is moving to low-density living with the demolition of flatted residencies in lieu of modern semi-detached properties. The school has a total site area of 15,600m2 (1.56 Hectares) consisting of the main school building, grass sports pitch, playground and parking area. Vehicular and pedestrian access is provided from separated points on Aspen Place. The school consists of a two-storey classroom block, and a cluster of single-storey blocks which also houses the nursery, gym and administration areas. The school was originally designed as a two-stream facility.
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The grassed sports pitch is on the south-eastern area of the site at the head of 3-4m embankment running west to east over the site and adjacent to Walnut Crescent. Adaptability: The school is over 60 years old and is assessed as being in a poor condition, with a significant ongoing maintenance requirement. To bring the building up to modern or Net-Zero standards, in line with the 2045 targets, would require a full refurbishment across the property. This would include internal reconfiguration, improvement and development of the external envelope along with significant mechanical and electrical replacement. Accommodating a school role above the building’s planning capacity would require compromise on the current accommodation and site. Both the construction of an extension or use of modular buildings to provide additional classrooms would reduce the existing playground area and would require careful design consideration to not impact negatively on access around the school. Alternatively, spaces used for nursery / community use could be altered to provide additional classrooms, with the existing facilities being provided for elsewhere. For any future options that comes forward at the Outline Business Case stage, which considered increasing the school roll at Auchenlodment, careful consideration would have to be given to the effect of increased traffic to and from the site. The site is located at the south-east edge of the residential area which has reduced clear road widths from high levels of on-street parking as well as a one-way route on adjacent Elm Drive.
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8.1.2. Fordbank Primary School General description: Fordbank primary school, sits towards the southern end of Johnstone within a site area of 18,300m2 (1.83 Hectares). The school sits centrally within its catchment boundary generally. The school is adjacent to Beith Road, with main vehicle access via Teviot Terrace. Pedestrian access is available from neighbouring residential area on Ness Avenue with a dedicated drop-off point on Beith Road. The school is bordered by a mix of low-rise and flatted developments on three sides with Beith Road on its southern boundary. Fordbank was completed under PPP programmes and opened in 2007 with the contract period finishing in 2037. The site comprises of a single L-shaped block, car parking, playground space, blaes pitch and perimeter soft landscaping. There is a significant gradient rising diagonally across the site, from southwest to northeast with a rise approximately of 4m. The building has an internal area of 3348m2 over two storeys with a design that allows for direct external access at ground and first floor levels. Public access to the school is at the 1st floor level. The school has a current roll of 246 pupils over 10 classes. It does not have any early learning provision but does feature a flexible learning resource (FLR) wing for children with additional support needs. Pupils attend the FLR from their own mainstream school. Fordbank also has a Breakfast Club. 26% of pupils attend Fordbank from outside the catchment area. 35 pupils living in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 8 at Kilbarchan, 8 at Howwood, 6 at Thorn, and 5 at Auchenlodment primary schools. Fordbank is 0.7miles/1.2km from the West Johnstone Joint Campus, and 1.6miles/2.6km from Auchenlodment primary school.
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Adaptability: Liaison with the PPP provider, Amey, would be required for any proposed works. To accommodate expansion in future school roles, the existing building design lends itself to extension to the north of the classroom wing. 8.1.3. St Anthony’s Primary School General description: St Anthony’s is located on the south-west edge of Johnstone, with an extensive catchment that covers Elderslie, Spateston, Howwood and Lochwinnoch. Due to the extensive catchment a significant percentage of pupils arrive by bus. The site has an area of 15,800m2 (1.58 Hectares) with principal access from Hallhill Road. Secondary pedestrian access is available is from the adjacent footpath on Old Howwood Road. The site is bordered by residential developments on its north, east and southern boundaries. Initially completed in 1969 the school was recently extensively refurbished and reconfigured, completed in 2020. Works included improved external learning, works to the school entrance and classrooms as well as the formation of specialist ASN spaces. The building has an internal area of 2621m2. External works to improve the access road and car parking were completed in 2022. Currently, St Anthony’s has a roll of 269 pupils across 10 classes. It does not have any early learning provision but does feature a FLR for children with additional support needs. 31% of pupils attend St Anthony’s from outside the catchment area. 63 pupils living in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including at St Margaret’s and 17 at St David’s primary schools. St Anthony’s is 1 mile/1.7km from the West Johnstone Joint Campus and 1.4miles/2.2km from St Margaret’s primary school. Adaptability:
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There is limited scope for extending the building due to the proximity of the building footprint to the existing boundaries and internal vehicle routes. The large number of school buses that attend the site combined with its close proximity to the existing boundaries would make accommodating additional bus numbers a significant technical and operational challenge. Although an extension to the southern end of the building or use of standalone buildings would be feasible, both options would impact on pupil access to already limited external learning space. 8.1.4. St Margaret’s Primary School General Description: The school sits close to the traditional town centre of Johnstone, within a mixed residential surrounding. Within the school’s own catchment area, the building is located to the far east but close to the most densely populated region. The catchment serves the main town centre of Johnstone as well as the communities of Brookfield and Kilbarchan. The main building was completed in 1960 and has had several refurbishments and internal alterations, most recently a reroofing project. The modular buildings were completed in 1999 and were included in the recent reroofing project. The site area is the smallest of the primary schools within the Johnstone learning estate with 8,088m2, (0.8 Hectares). This is inclusive of the school modular buildings and adjacent St. Margaret’s Nursery. The school has limited staff parking area, adjacent to the main school building, accessed from Buchanan Street. There is a separate services route from the north corner of the site, accessed again from Buchanan Street. There is no specific bus or parent lay-by for school drop-off. St. Margaret’s school consists of a single storey block that houses the main classroom, admin, gym and kitchen areas. There is also a stand-alone modular building, housing two class bases. The Nursery is a stand- alone building with public access from Quarrelton Road and service access from Graham Street. The nursery has separate external play space and uses the main school building for lunch time dining.
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The school has an overall internal area of 1,414m2 which includes the modular building class bases but not the nursery. The nursery has an internal area of 520m2. The school roll is at 160 pupils across 7 classes with early learning and childcare provision available. St Margaret’s offers a Breakfast Club. 35% of pupils attend St Margaret’s from outside the catchment area. 53 pupils living in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 26 at St Anthony’s, and 11 at St David’s primary schools. The school is 0.5miles/800m from the West Johnstone Joint Campus and 1.4miles/2.2km from St Anthony’s primary school. Adaptability: The construction of an extension to the existing building, to accommodate increased pupil roll is feasible with the removal of the modular units, which are nearing the end of their expected life cycle. However, the area for external learning at St. Margaret's is very limited, compared to other primary schools in Johnstone. Careful consideration would have to be given to external learning provision, increased pedestrian and vehicular traffic to the school site as well as supporting accommodation provision within the school, such as dining and gym provision. 8.1.5. Thorn Primary School General description: Thorn Primary School sits towards the north of the Johnstone area, on the edge of the traditional town centre. The school has a site area of 12,500m2 (1.2 hectares). There is a single point of access, for both pedestrians and vehicles, from the main arterial route into Johnstone centre, Thorn Brae. The school is directly adjacent to Johnstone train station and shares a southern boundary with the railway car park. The school sits centrally in its catchment area, within mainly higher-density, flatted residencies.
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The school consists of the main building and additional modular buildings. The main building houses the majority of teaching spaces along with all the ancillary, administrative and plant areas. The modular buildings provide three class bases. The main school building was completed in 1988 and has a had several internal alterations to improve ancillary services, heating, and to subdivide previously open-plan teaching spaces. The modular buildings are over 25 years old and are beyond having any long-term future that could contribute to the school. The school has a total internal floor area of 1367m2, including the modular units. Thorn has 133 pupils across 7 classes. The school has no early learning provision, out-of-school care or Breakfast Club. 32% of pupils attend Thorn from outside the catchment area. 42 pupils who live in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 11 at Auchenlodment and 7 at Cochrane Castle. Adaptability: Extension and refurbishment to Thorn Primary School to accommodate additional school roll would be feasible but would require significant internal and external refurbishment to bring the school building up to an appropriate standard for condition and suitability. It would also be likely that during refurbishment works the pupils would need to be temporarily decanted to other schools as the building is too small to accommodate teaching during phased construction work. 8.1.6. West Johnstone Joint Campus General description: WJJC sits within a large site of 32,100m2 (3.2 Hectares), adjacent to Thomas Shanks Public Park. The campus, completed in 2008 under PPP contract, houses both Cochrane Castle and St. David’s primary single stream schools. The campus also includes West Johnstone Learning Centre and West Johnstone Pre-Five Centre.
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The site has good vehicular and pedestrian access from Beith Road, a main arterial route through Johnstone, with secondary pupil access from footpaths within the park. St David’s has a current roll of 83 pupils across 5 classes while Cochrane Castle has a roll of 101 pupils across 6 classes. The campus offers early learning provision and a Breakfast Club but not out-of-school care. 31% of pupils attend St David’s from outside the catchment area. 57 pupils who live in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 31 at St Anthony’s and 25 at St Margaret’s. 23% of pupils attend Cochrane Castle from outside the catchment area. 116 pupils living in the catchment area attend schools elsewhere, including 46 at Fordbank, 19 at Thorn and 16 at Auchenlodment primary schools. The joint campus consists of a single building with dedicated and secure public entrance to the school and community learning facility with a separate public access point for the Pre-5 centre. The nursery is to the north of the building with the community spaces, gym, dining halls and majority of ancillary spaces within the main central block. All classrooms are contained with the teaching block, which faces out to Beith Road. The teaching block is accessed via a ground floor connecting hallway from the central block. The central block is generally single storey with the classroom block being two storeys. The overall internal floor area of WJJS is 4540m2, of which 3320m2 is allocated for St. Davids and Cochrane Castle primary school use. The joint campus is 1.2miles/1.9km from Thorn, 0.9miles/1.6km from Auchenlodment and 0.5miles/800m from St Margaret’s primary school. Adaptability: Liaison with the PPP provider, Amey, would be required for future works. The location of the classroom block lends itself to potential one or two-storey extension on the ends of the classroom block. The design would need to address reduced connection between the various areas of playground and the adjacent pedestrian route to the building. The introduction of modular units would also be suitable given the overall area available in the playgrounds. Consideration would be required to accommodate the additional M&E systems associated with a larger building or additional units. Sufficient land is available within the existing school boundary to accommodate increases in parking areas and school drop-off zones.
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Appendix 2 – Johnstone High School Strategic Case for Change
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Johnstone High School Strategic Case for Change Version V1.4 Date: 25/07/2025
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Contents 1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 44 2. Background ............................................................................................................................................................ 45 3. Strategic Case ......................................................................................................................................................... 46 3.1 Strategic Alignment ........................................................................................................................................... 46 3.2 Johnstone Local Context and School Facts ....................................................................................................... 48 3.2.1 Description of the current school site .......................................................................................................... 49 3.2.2 Location ......................................................................................................................................................... 49 3.2.3 Key Facts ........................................................................................................................................................ 50 3.2.4 Capacity and Projection Information ........................................................................................................... 51 3.2.5 Operating Costs ............................................................................................................................................. 51 4. Need for Change .................................................................................................................................................... 52 4.1 Case for Change and Investment Objectives .................................................................................................... 52 4.2 Rationale of Need .............................................................................................................................................. 52 4.3 Scope and Service Requirements...................................................................................................................... 53 4.4 Main Benefits .................................................................................................................................................... 54 4.5 Main Risks & Constraints .................................................................................................................................. 54 4.6 Dependencies .................................................................................................................................................... 54 5. Economic Case ....................................................................................................................................................... 55 5.1 Critical success factors ...................................................................................................................................... 55 6. Commercial, Financial and Management Cases ................................................................................................... 56 6.1 Commercial Case ............................................................................................................................................... 56 6.2 Financial Case .................................................................................................................................................... 56 6.3 Management case ............................................................................................................................................. 57 7. Next Steps .............................................................................................................................................................. 58 8. Appendix A – Description of School Site ............................................................................................................... 59
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1. Executive Summary The purpose of this Strategic Case for Change is to explore the existing structure of Johnstone High School, a non-denominational secondary school, and the opportunities that could be gained by assessing the associated challenges presented both now and in the future. This strategic assessment examines and considers the context of key issues which will limit, both now and increasingly in the future if not addressed, the ability to deliver against the identified strategic objectives for the Council’s learning estate. These key issues stem principally from a school estate in Johnstone with significant excess capacity coupled with a long-term forecast where future school rolls are expected to decline further, and additionally a deteriorating building condition in Johnstone High School. Taken together, these issues are showing that an improved environment at a school of appropriate size and scale, with improved community offering can deliver a positive outcome. In this context a decision was made to progress with this review at the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board in March 2025 where it was agreed that the strategic business case should progress for Johnstone High, concurrently with a wider review of all primary school provision, noting a geographical overprovision of school places in the town along with a cluster of schools identified within the initial priority cohort of the Learning Estate Strategy. This Strategic Case for Change is a product of Renfrewshire Council’s new approach to develop the long-term Learning Estate Strategy and establishes a succinct strategic overview of the current context of Johnstone High School and key issues that require to be addressed. This initial strategic assessment will support progression to the next stage of the business case process which provides a structured and staged development approach to ensure the Council is able to make the very best investment decisions in our learning establishments. This also works to ensure our establishments are best positioned in the future to meet the strategic objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy, the Scottish Government’s national Learning Estate Strategy, and the Fairer Renfrewshire Policy. This strategic assessment stage examines the current operating context at Johnstone High School with reference to the 8 objectives identified in the Council’s learning estate strategy, clearly articulating the current baseline position and identifying areas where existing arrangements are failing to provide the best possible opportunity to support the Council to deliver against these objectives.
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2. Background In August 2024, Renfrewshire Council approved a new Learning Estate strategy and subsequently produced a prioritisation assessment across the whole of the existing Learning Estate. The methodology underpinning this new approach highlighted several growing priorities for schools across the Johnstone area in terms of condition, sufficiency and suitability, of which Johnstone High School was one. Additionally, in October 2024, long term school roll projection data was published following development of a new strategic whole estate model for the Council which highlighted that almost all schools in Johnstone, including Johnstone High School, are operating under-capacity, with some underutilised to a significant extent. The data indicates that Johnstone High School currently operates at 63% of capacity and that this will fall to 61% of capacity by 2033/34. This document explores roll projections further and shows that based on future primary school projections falling, a reduced school roll at Johnstone High School can be reasonably expected in the decades to come with reduced primary cohorts progressing through. As noted in the separate Case for Change for Johnstone primary schools, a relatively polarised overview of the existing learning estate in Johnstone was presented. It was identified that, in addition to Thorn Primary, two other Johnstone primary schools ranked highly on the list of schools that were identified as being within the priority cohort for consideration as part of future Learning Estate investment planning, indicating a proportionately high percentage of the estate in poorer condition and or suitability. Contrastingly the remaining 4 primaries were assessed highly reflecting relatively recent construction coupled with high levels of contractual maintenance regimes associated with three primaries delivered and managed via the Public Private Partnership (PPP) arrangement, along with a fourth primary which was significantly refurbished by the Council in recent years. This Strategic Case for Change considers information on the current operating context of Johnstone High School and examines the risks, constraints, dependencies and potential benefits involved in considering future provision. In commencing this study, consideration has been given to the likelihood of major housebuilding taking place in Renfrewshire in the next 10+ years that is not currently anticipated, given the impact this could have on the school roll projections Johnstone High School. Whilst there is no evidence that future housing development will take place in the catchment that has not already been taken account of in existing long term school roll modelling to the extent that it may materially impact demand on schools, it is recognised that the Council is progressing the new local development plan, covering the period from 2028 to 2038, which will need to identify land for over 5,000 new homes across Renfrewshire. There are no firm indications at present of where in Renfrewshire those new houses may be built, with much depending on identification of suitable land and the commercial appeal for housebuilders and developers. The selected sites will feature in the proposed Local Development Plan due to be published in 2026 where any implications for the long- term strategic Learning Estate will be appropriately identified and considered. A letter of comfort was provided by Renfrewshire Council’s Housing Department dated 10th October 2024, confirming that planned housing on Howwood Road in Johnstone will have no impact on education provision as this is being developed in place of houses that are being demolished. The housing will be offered to those already living in the catchment area who have had their homes demolished and therefore any impact arising from this key regeneration project on school rolls are expected to be minimal. It should be noted that concurrently, a Strategic Case for Change is being developed to consider options for the long-term future of Johnstone primary school estate. Whilst this will evolve separately, neither business case will be considered in isolation and as each is developed, identified options and potential solutions may connect.
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3. Strategic Case 3.1 Strategic Alignment Renfrewshire Council recently approved plans to improve its education infrastructure through a new long term Learning Estate Strategy. The strategy takes a structured approach to assessment of the learning estate through a prioritisation framework, aiming to identify those areas most in need of consideration as part of long term investment planning to ensure that limited capital investment capacity is directed where they will have the most impact through the reshaping, refurbishing or replacing of existing facilities. The framework makes use of Core Facts data to assess the Condition, Sufficiency and Suitability of the Local Authority’s learning estate (Core Facts 2,3 and 4 of Scottish Government’s assessment criteria for school buildings), as well as quartile data to represent deprivation levels, to rank schools across Renfrewshire in order of priority. This approach has illustrated that Renfrewshire’s learning estate presents a mixed picture, with a cohort of high quality school facilities reflecting significant investment over the last 20 years, but with a significant cohort that are either ageing and will require significant refurbishment or replacement in the longer term as part of a 25 year strategy, through to those of most immediate priority that are in poor condition, compromising the Council’s aim of creating the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive. Three Johnstone primary schools as well as Johnstone High School featured among the 14 ‘priority’ schools identified as requiring initial consideration as part of the Council’s future learning estate investment programme. This indicated a need for reassessment of learning estate provision and consequently, existing plans to replace Thorn primary school were paused in favour of a review of learning estate provision across the town. This drew on outputs from the Learning Estate Strategy prioritisation framework as well as the implications of the school-roll projections. This initial priority listing of existing schools are listed below for reference: Ranking School Location 1 Paisley Grammar School Paisley 2 Trinity High School Renfrew 3= Auchenlodment Primary Johnstone 3= Heriot Primary Paisley 3= Johnstone High School Johnstone 3= St Peter’s Primary Paisley 4= Bridge of Weir Primary Bridge of Weir 4= Thorn Primary Johnstone 4= West Primary Paisley 4= Castlehead High Paisley 4= St Margaret’s Primary Johnstone 4= Gallowhill Primary Paisley 4= Brediland Primary Paisley 5 St Catherine’s Primary Paisley Table 1: ‘Top 14’ priority schools derived from Learning Estate Strategy Scoring Methodology
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The 2024 Learning Estate Strategy aligns with the Scottish Government’s National Learning Estate Strategy and other key Council policies. In taking significant steps to improve its education Infrastructure, Renfrewshire Council’s Learning Estate Strategy has a stated aim to ‘provide learning environments suitable for the 21st Century’. The strategy features a structured methodology used to assess the current learning estate and help council identify areas in most need of investment and attention. The methodology will help develop a long-term funding model to support the required investment programme. The strategy sets out a strategic vision with a priority to create the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive, identifying the following 8 objectives as key to defining what is necessary to deliver this ambition: 9. Condition 10. Suitability 11. Sufficiency 12. Inclusivity 13. Digital 14. Sustainability and Net Zero 15. Community Facilities and Place shaping 16. Active Travel Objectives 1-3 mirror the Core Facts reporting requirements set by Scottish Government and this highlights the overall importance of the basic structure, design and size relative to school population in assessing if Renfrewshire’s schools are fit for purpose as defined by the strategy. The overarching aim in Renfrewshire is to ensure that its schools are modern, accessible to all, and support the delivery of high-quality education for all learners. The ambitions set out in council policy and vision include the following: • Improving the Condition of Schools Renfrewshire is focusing on improving the condition of its school buildings, in line with the Scottish Government's commitment to enhancing the learning environment. This includes refurbishment and upgrading projects to modernise older schools and ensure they meet current educational and environmental standards. This aligns with the National Learning Estate Strategy's call for investment in schools to ensure they are fit for purpose, energy-efficient, and conducive to modern teaching methods. • Sustainability and Energy Efficiency Renfrewshire’s Learning Estate Strategy places a strong emphasis on sustainability, aligning with Scottish Government aims to reduce the carbon footprint of school buildings. For example, incorporating energy- efficient designs and renewable energy solutions. This contributes to national climate change goals and ensures long-term savings on energy costs. • Equity and Inclusion Reflecting the Scottish Government's priority of equity in access to quality facilities, Renfrewshire’s strategy includes a focus on ensuring that pupils, regardless of their socio-economic background, have access to high-quality learning environments. Additionally, Renfrewshire’s approach aligns with the government's goal of inclusivity, ensuring that schools are accessible to pupils with disabilities, and offer a range of resources to support the well-being of all learners. • Adapting to Future Educational Needs
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As part of its strategy, Renfrewshire is ensuring that schools can adapt to the evolving needs of education, much in the same way the Scottish Government calls for schools to be designed for flexibility. This involves creating flexible learning spaces that support a variety of teaching methods, including digital learning and collaborative projects. In addition, Renfrewshire has been exploring new ways to integrate modern technology into school buildings, creating environments that facilitate 21st-century learning. • Community and Public Use Renfrewshire's strategy mirrors the Scottish Government’s emphasis on community engagement. The local authority prioritises designs that enable schools to be used by the wider community. This aligns with the government’s call for multi-use spaces that benefit both pupils and the surrounding community, such as sports facilities, meeting spaces, and halls for local events. • Strategic Planning and Investment Renfrewshire has developed a long-term strategy for school estates, consistent with the National Learning Estate Strategy’s focus on strategic planning and investment. The local authority has set out a clear framework for identifying schools that require replacement, refurbishment, or upgrading, and will seek funding through national initiatives where available. • Collaborative Approach with Stakeholders Just as the Scottish Government advocates for collaboration between local authorities, communities, and other stakeholders in the development of the learning estate, Renfrewshire has adopted a consultative approach. This includes engaging with staff, parents, and pupils when planning refurbishments or new schools, ensuring that the voice of the community is central to decision-making processes. In addition, Renfrewshire Council’s Strategic Property Review (SPR), Fairer Renfrewshire Policy, and Learning Estate Strategy are interconnected and support each other in creating an efficient, equitable, and sustainable public sector estate. The SPR will ensure that public facilities are strategically located, optimised, and used to their fullest potential, helping to achieve the goals of reducing inequality, providing inclusive access, services, and ensuring long-term sustainability creating strong alignment with the Council’s Fairer Renfrewshire objectives. Through careful planning, the SPR will help ensure that schools and other public assets contribute to the region's broader objectives of community wellbeing, accessibility, and educational excellence. The desire to review and develop the school provision in Johnstone is in line with these policies and ambitions. 3.2 Johnstone Local Context and School Facts The town of Johnstone is the 3rd largest in Renfrewshire with a population of approximately 16,000 people. Johnstone is 3 miles west of Paisley. It is split into two electoral wards for local authority elections, each returning four councillors. Johnstone developed around the textile industry in the 18th and 19th centuries with the population expanding as mills and engineering firms developed and provided greater employment. As textiles and other industries declined throughout the late 20th century, the population of Johnstone fell from a high of 23,000 in 1970 to its present level of circa 16,000. Over half of the population live in social housing, owned by Renfrewshire Council or local providers such as Linstone Housing Association. Northeast, northwest and southwest Johnstone feature in the top 10% and top 5% of Scotland’s most deprived areas, as measured by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD).
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3.2.1 Description of the current school site Johnstone High School lies to the south-east of the Johnstone area bounded by Beith Road to the west, Cochrane Castle Golf Club to the East and residential developments to the north and south boundaries The school building was opened in 1965 as part of a larger high school development that included the denominational St. Cuthbert’s high school on the same site, along with dedicated janitorial housing for both schools. St. Cuthberts was demolished in 2009, and the site given over to residential development. The current school has a pupil roll of 896, with a capacity for 1380. The main school building is now 60 years old. Recent condition assessment has rated the school as Condition-C, highlighting that the building is in need of investment. A full description of the site is provided in appendix A of this document. A full overview of the current site is presented in Appendix A of this document. 3.2.2 Location A map of Johnstone is shown below, indicating the location of Johnstone High School in relation to local primary schools and its position within the town itself. The catchment continues southwest and northwest to include villages as far as Lochwinnoch and Kilbarchan respectively. Johnstone High School is the only secondary school provision within the town itself. From a denominational perspective, the town is served by the nearby St Benedict’s High School. This is a PPP school and is rated very highly for its condition and suitability. Whilst St Benedict’s serves the town of Johnstone, it is not within scope of this review due to its positive ability to meet the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy. St Benedict’s is expected to reach its overall planning capacity for a short period of time in the coming years, and this situation will be monitored as a separate piece of work.
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3.2.3 Key Facts Johnstone High School is an ageing building at 64 years old. The building has undergone several adaptations and refurbishments over the years but is in need of significant financial investment to bring it to an acceptable standard and maintain it at that position. The school has an acceptable suitability assessment however it does rank lower in some respects including external learning and teaching spaces and access arrangements such as car parking. The school building itself when combining suitability and condition shows that it is limiting any evolution and flexibility of curriculum due to spaces becoming outdated and not fit for purpose. Key information related to Johnstone High School shows the following: School Age Suitability Condition Johnstone High School 60 B C Table 2: Key Facts
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3.2.4 Capacity and Projection Information Johnstone High School is a non-denominational secondary school, serving primary schools in Johnstone as well as the villages of Howwood, Kilbarchan and Lochwinnoch. It has a planning capacity of 1380 pupils and current roll of 858, 62% of capacity. The school provides secondary education from 1st to 6th year. Denominational pupils in Johnstone are served by St Benedict’s High School in nearby Linwood. In 2024, Renfrewshire Council commissioned a learning estate pupil-projection model to better understand the numbers of pupils likely to attend mainstream schools in Renfrewshire over the next 10 years2. Analysis of current and anticipated pupil demand at Johnstone High School shows that the school roll is expected to remain fairly consistent over the next ten years. It can however be reasonably assumed that beyond this ten-year mark, a downturn in demand for Johnstone High School will be evidenced. That is on the basis that the projections within the Johnstone primary school estate for associated primary schools to Johnstone High School are expected to reduce by 10%. As reduced cohorts progress through primary school, to secondary, Johnstone High School could potentially be operating at 50% of capacity in the decades to come, with no intervention. Table 3: Roll Projections 3.2.5 Operating Costs Data has been analysed to investigate the operating costs of Johnstone High School. This includes aspects such as utilities, hard and soft FM, staff costs, and matters such as waste disposal and transport. The overall operational expenditure of Johnstone High School is in excess of £6.5m per year. Detailed analysis on operating costs will be undertaken at future business case stages. 2 Edge Analytics for Renfrewshire Council, 2024 School Capacity Current Roll Roll 2025/26 Roll 2029/30 Roll 2033/34 Johnstone High School 1380 858 (62%) 865 (62%) 908 (65%) 849 (61%)
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4. Need for Change 4.1 Case for Change and Investment Objectives The objectives associated with any investment projects which ultimately emerge from this business case process seek to align with the overall ambition of Renfrewshire’s Learning Estate Strategy. The guiding vision is to create the best possible learning environments to allow children and young people to thrive at Johnstone High School; to ensure learning environments are fit for 21st century education; that learning environments are of a size and capacity that enables them to operate at optimal occupancy. The overall objective for investing in the future estate will be to ensure the provision of modern learning facilities aligned to meet the projected long-term roll, articulated as follows: • Effectiveness – Meeting the aims of the 2024 Learning Estate Strategy will initiate a strategic programme of investment in schools. The strategy will ensure that every school is considered in terms of Scottish Government Core Facts reporting criteria. The intention is to deliver the best learning environments and facilities possible, exceeding, where able, Scottish Government recommendations. • Efficiency – Provision of modern learning environments will help support the ambition to improve attainment for pupils in Renfrewshire • Economy – Operating costs for the estate should be lower than currently, through the increased efficiency of modern power and heating systems and through operation of a more efficient overall school estate; offering a reduction in the costs incurred maintaining ageing buildings; a reduction in cost through the operation of buildings of a size suited to current and projected school rolls. • Compliance – Renfrewshire Council’s net zero policy acknowledges that the learning estate is a major contributor to the Council’s total combined carbon footprint. As such, careful planning for the replacement or refurbishment of schools would lessen the impact from older building and make a valuable contribution to the Council’s commitments. • Replacement – The project acknowledges that as schools age and maintenance costs increase, they come closer to the point of being no longer fit for purpose as a Council asset. 4.2 Rationale of Need Renfrewshire Council is required by Scottish Government to collect data on its learning estate to help with assessment and planning at both local and national level. The data covers the suitability, condition and sufficiency of school buildings. The 2024 Learning Estate Strategy reflects this data by identifying condition, suitability and sufficiency as Strategic Objectives 1, 2 and 3, highlighting the importance of these measures in any assessment of school buildings and their viability. In terms of Core Fact 2 (Condition), a 2023 building condition survey assessed Johnstone High School as ‘C – Poor’, with an expectation that £10.5m would require to be spent on maintenance over the following 20 years to keep the school operating at an acceptable standard. This expenditure will not make any improvements to the suitability of the building to support effective delivery of the curriculum as it is simply required to improve the structure and fabric to bring it to an acceptable standard. In terms of Core Fact 3 (Sufficiency), assessments of schools focus on pupil places at individual schools and in localities. When combined with pupil projection data, this can help local authorities plan for the medium to long term, matching availability to demand. With recent demand at Johnstone High School remaining low
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(currently 62% of capacity) and projected demand in 2033/34 lower still, the current context of Johnstone High is failing to meet the target for optimal occupancy for all schools of 80-95%. In terms of Core Fact 4 (Suitability), the most recent assessment for Johnstone High School rated the school as B ‘satisfactory’, indicating that school ‘buildings and grounds generally support the delivery of services.’ As this assessment is based on responses from school staff, it can be seen from the survey that in general, staff are content with the teaching environments and equipment at the school, however there are some elements contained within the report that show where the school is failing to support delivery of the curriculum and any future flexibility or changing curriculum delivery would be very limiting with the current building. Analysis of these aspects of the building’s operational effectiveness highlight some of the opportunities and challenges associated with the school as it is now: Condition: • The building condition is such that Renfrewshire Council faces significant outlay in maintenance costs over the next 20 years • Accessibility is flagged as an issue in upper floors of the school, rendering some aspects of the original design inadequate Suitability: • Whilst the building generally supports service delivery now, its capacity to adopt and adapt further to new teaching methods, developments in classroom design and equipment, may limit future suitability • A new or refurbished school would offer an opportunity to ensure the very best teaching environment for secondary pupils in Johnstone to better support attainment in an area of high deprivation. Sufficiency: • There will be an ongoing demand for secondary education in Johnstone • The current school is too big for current and future demand Provision of investment to improve condition, suitability and sufficiency at Johnstone High School, whilst addressing significant underlying excess capacity in a way that maximises use of any improvements made at the school, offers an opportunity to ensure education is delivered in modern, well-designed school, equipped with modern facilities and infrastructure, which match projected demand. Additionally, improvements to an ageing building also offers the prospect of lower operating and maintenance costs and would contribute to the Council’s net zero ambitions. 4.3 Scope and Service Requirements As work progresses to identify a preferred way forward for Johnstone High School, officers will work to articulate the scope and service requirements involved in providing a school that satisfies the business needs and vision identified in the Learning Estate Strategy. Future iterations of this business case will identify the minimum viability criteria (MVC) for those key services, business functions and operational capabilities required to deliver the stated ambition to create the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive. The MVC for delivery of a modern, accessible learning environment that meets the business needs identified here will be broken down as follows:
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• Core services and aspects representing the essential changes, without which, the project cannot be judged as a success • Desirable services and aspects representing the additional changes which the project can potentially justify on a cost/benefit and therefore value for money basis • Optional services and aspects representing possible changes which the project can potentially justify on a marginal low cost/affordability basis. Such an approach will assist in avoiding ‘scope creep during any options appraisal stage of the project. The following represent a starting point in any discussion of MVC for current learning estate projects: • Must meet the vision and ambition of the Learning Estate strategy • Must be affordable within the wider goals of the Learning Estate Strategy • Must offer best value • Must not limit our ability to address competing priorities • Must have the potential to cater for community use 4.4 Main Benefits • The overarching benefit of the approach articulated in this business case would be the modernisation of the Johnstone High School making it fit for purpose, and ensuring the most productive use of existing high condition schools in Johnstone, with the intention that in future, all pupils will be educated in the best possible learning environments • A reduction in operating costs and cost avoidance are key benefits of an approach that ensures that the capacity of Johnstone High School fits demand that it operates at optimal occupancy • A reduction in Renfrewshire Council’s carbon footprint through the operation of a school better equipped to meet energy performance targets through more efficient operation. 4.5 Main Risks & Constraints All options developed in the next steps of business case process will fully consider risks and the feasibility of being able to deliver proposed solutions as well as wider risk that require to be considered as part of a wider strategic investment programme of significant scale, including any future changes to key drivers on school roll projections, long term affordability requirements, capacity to deliver proposals, identifying a suitable site for any option that includes a new build school, or being able to decant or work around an operational school. 4.6 Dependencies • Wider review of primary school provision in Johnstone • Renfrewshire Council’s Strategic Property Review – The Strategic Property Review recognises that schools are a significant portion of the property portfolio and that there is an opportunity to ensure Council optimises use of facilities through colocation. • ASN Provision – Future strategy for ASN provision will be reflected in proposals for changes to the learning estate in Johnstone. This will be managed through direct links to the Inclusion team and the ASN management team. • Community use – considering the dependency to the Strategic Property Review, there is a further dependency to understand the community needs in designing new learning estate provisions. • Early years provision – it is essential to consider early years with any reprovision or new build establishment where spaces currently exist in the locality.
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5. Economic Case 5.1 Critical success factors The critical success factors described here will develop further with the Five Case Model. They will help to identify and assess a long-list options and to identify a preferred way forward for the project in future iterations of this business case Strategic fit and business needs • How well will options meet the objective of providing a proposed investment priorities to complement and enhance the quality of school provision in Johnstone? • How effectively will options overcome the strategic challenges identified of operating schools which are in poor condition with excess capacity and high operational costs? • How well can the options fit Renfrewshire Council’s Learning Estate Strategy and other Council and Scottish Government policies and ambitions for education? Potential Value for Money • How effectively will the options optimise the social, economic and environmental value to the community in Johnstone and the wider learning estate in terms of potential costs, benefits and risks? Supplier capacity and capability • Will options match the ability of providers to deliver any required design and construction services? • How attractive will options appear to potential suppliers of design and construction services? Potential affordability • Can options be funded from available sources of finance? • How easily will options align with resourcing constraints recognising the Council will continue to face affordability constraints over the long term in relation to the scale of investment that is both affordable in the short term but also financially sustainable in the long term.? Potential achievability • How likely is it that options will match Renfrewshire Council’s ability to respond to and facilitate the required changes? • Will options match the skills at Renfrewshire Council required for successful delivery? • How well will the options seek to address the aspiration, need and ambition of the school and wider community across Johnstone.
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6. Commercial, Financial and Management Cases 6.1 Commercial Case The marketplace for design and construction services in Scotland is mature and well-developed, particularly in the central belt, where there is a good choice of multi-disciplinary consultancies, Tier 1 contractors and specialist sub-contractors. Whilst there is proven experience in delivering complex public sector infrastructure, such as building new schools and refurbishing existing schools, it is important to stress that the construction market remains more volatile relative to long term historic conditions. It may, however, be inferred that the market is well-placed to cater to any options involving new-build or retrofitted schools. Such projects offer high-profile and high value opportunities for companies to showcase capabilities and expertise, adding to their attraction. Similarly, Renfrewshire Council’s approach to collaborative procurement offers alignment to national procurement frameworks, simplifying access to opportunities and reducing bidding costs for suppliers. Risk allocation is a key factor in market engagement, with the use of standardised contracts (such as SBCC) common to Renfrewshire Council procurement practice, helping balance the approach to risk sharing. Key risks are generally managed through early contractor involvement and active pre-construction planning. Construction projects such as new school building typically follow a design-and-build or 2-stage tender model, with cost certainty delivered through target cost arrangements. Such arrangements are familiar to suppliers in Scotland and promote Renfrewshire Council’s objectives for value for money and delivery assurance. The Council’s procurement strategy outlines its commitment to maximising public value through economies of scale, sustainable procurement and collaborative delivery of projects. The strategy emphasises community benefits, sustainability in construction and prompt payment as key to enhancing the attractiveness of a project. As the Council progresses the wider Learning Estate Strategy and greater certainty is established over the scale and timing of planned investment projects there will be a specific workstream to develop an associated procurement strategy for the Council. On the assumption the Council will, through the Learning Estate Strategy, begin to establish a sustained pipeline of future investment projects at scale, this will present the opportunity to consider a range of strategic procurement approaches to secure long term benefits for the Council in terms of value for money and management of risks across procurement activity, construction sector, economic & financial risks as well as project specific risk. Opportunities in this regard will be explored and outlined in greater detail as the business case process moves towards the final stages. 6.2 Financial Case Renfrewshire Council set a balanced budget of £571.5m for 2025/26 which includes a grant from Scottish Government of £469m. Despite continuing economic and financial pressures, the council has been able to demonstrate prudent financial management in maintaining a reserve of £10m and a projected underspend of £1.6m as of January 2025. This balanced revenue position has been maintained despite continuing constraints due to rising service demands, inflation and wider economic uncertainty. Ongoing commitment to social equity and policies that support the vulnerable in Renfrewshire may place some strain on, and limit flexibility of, council’s ability to spend without offsetting savings or seeking alternative sources of income. The strategic overview and Case for Change presented in this document has highlighted the underlying need for investment in key areas of the existing Johnstone Learning Estate. With an ageing estate in poor
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condition this situation is expected to add further financial demand to the Council with no intervention. It is also evident that notwithstanding affordability and financial sustainability considerations, there is an opportunity to invest in the Johnstone Learning Estate to be able to achieve the stated ambitions of the Learning Estate Strategy. In this context and despite the current and expected continuation of financial challenge over the medium term, the Council has put in place arrangements to secure in the region of £170m of initial future investment capacity to support the strategic learning estate. It has been recognised that the scale of investment that will be required across the whole learning estate over the full 25-year strategic planning period will be very significant and likely to run into billions of pounds to deliver the ambitions over the long term. The Council will therefore be required to continue to strategically plan for growing this investment capacity over the long term to ensure as an organisation, investment priorities that are approved to move forward are both affordable to deliver but critically are financially sustainable over the very long term and this will form a key part of the overall business case process as it progresses. 6.3 Management case Currently, Renfrewshire Council is undertaking several capital projects focussed on learning estate improvements, covering both primary and secondary schools. This work has built on existing expertise within the key teams likely to be involved in any project to improve the provision of education in Johnstone, giving the Council an experienced pool of resources to draw from. Work is underway within Children’s Services to create a dedicated Learning Estate Programme Team to deliver on the ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy. Learning Estate projects will be overseen at Chief Officer level by the Director of Children’s Services who acts as Senior Responsible Owner (SRO) for all projects, with senior leadership being assumed by the Head of Education for Strategy and Improvement on behalf of the Director. All Learning Estate projects will be led by the Strategic Learning Estate Manager who holds senior accountability to the SRO with day-to-day project leadership covering all aspects of projects from inception, business case delivery, design, through to construction execution. This leadership hierarchy will ensure that projects are successfully delivered upholding quality across project time, cost, and scope, ultimately delivering the intended outcomes and high-quality learning establishments for all. Each project will require bespoke levels of resource depending on the scale and complexity but will follow a consistent approach. A dedicated Programme Manager will lead the overall success and delivery of the programme by implementing and executing full governance and control across all projects, supporting the Strategic Learning Estate Manager. Project management resource will be provided by the Council’s Programme Management Unit to cover business case development, business change processes, and fundamental project management governance throughout the lifecycle. Technical expertise will be provided by the Councils’ Property Services who will provide construction project management, contract management, and subject matter expert roles where appropriate through design and delivery. Additional resources will be required for each project with ongoing resource allocation underway covering critical services such as Finance, Communications, Education, Procurement, and Legal. All resources allocated to Learning Estate projects will report to the Strategic Learning Estate Manager for their involvement in these projects. Given the scale and complexity expected in some cases, support and professional advice will be provided by the Technical Services Programme Manager, and the Head of Facilities and Property Services, Managing Solicitor (Projects), and the Strategic Category Manager where appropriate.
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All projects will be monitored using standard project management tools, and will report to the Learning Estate Project Board, the Learning Estate Delivery Board and the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board at agreed intervals. The Council has developed significant experience over the past 15 years delivering major and complex investment programmes across the learning estate (which includes three major projects currently in delivery), leisure estate, cultural estate as well as major transport infrastructure. This experience places the Council in a strong position to understand the resource and governance arrangements required to deliver investment programmes of scale and this will be invaluable to support the Council’s investment focus shifting to a long-term strategic learning estate investment programme. 7. Next Steps Following the provision of the information set out in this document, it is clear that a positive change for the town of Johnstone is required to address a declining school population, with a number of schools, including Johnstone High School, that are of poor condition, and not able to suitably deliver an evolving curriculum or support community needs. By utilising the information set out in this Strategic Case for Change, the overall learning estate in Johnstone will now progress to the Outline Business Case (OBC) stage. At this stage, a long list of options will be identified and subsequently analysed to objectively reduce to a short list of viable options. These options should be capable of addressing the issues set out in this Case for Change and seek to deliver on the specific objectives of Renfrewshire’s Learning Estate Strategy whilst working to deliver the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive.
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8. Appendix A – Description of School Site Johnstone High School lies to the south-east of the Johnstone area bounded by Beith Road to the west, Cochrane Castle Golf Club to the East and residential developments to the north and south boundaries. The site has a single vehicular access point from Beith Road which incorporates a bus drop-off areas and routes to both school and community sports carparking areas. There are separate pedestrian access points from both Beith Road and the public footpath that runs along the boundary between the school and Cochrane Castle Golf Course. The site has an area of 89,344m2 (22.1 Acres) with a significant cross site gradient running from low level along Beith Road towards a high level at the grass football pitch at the far south of the site. The school building was opened in 1965 as part of a larger high school development that included the denominational St. Cuthbert’s High School on the same site, along with dedicated janitorial housing for both schools. St. Cuthberts was demolished in 2009, and the site given over to residential development. The main school building is formed with four interconnecting wings with a grass sports pitch to the south of the site. Originally the school was constructed with separate gym hall and swimming pool. Both the gym hall and the school swimming pool were replaced with new-build projects comminating in the completion of the Johnstone Community Sports Hub in 2016. The hub is a shared facility, prioritising school use during weekdays and open to public thereafter. Services include access to gym & sports hall, a fitness suite and a swimming pool as well as a 60x100m all-weather sports pitch. The school has had a number of internal alterations / refurbishments including a significant refurbishment to the internal fabric of the building and its mechanical and electrical systems in 2009, as well as the formation of a new dance studio 2016.
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The current school has a pupil roll of 896, with a capacity for 1380. The main school building is now 60 years old. Recent condition assessment has rated the school as Condition-C, highlighting that the building is in poor condition with investment required. Adaptability: The building would need significant internal and external alterations to address the issues performance of the building fabric, services systems and the suitability of the spaces. A deep-retrofit would be the most likely level of refurbishment required to resolve failings in the existing building fabric and life-expired materials before moving onto improving the internal environment of the school. Internal teaching spaces, assembly and circulation routes would require careful reconfiguration & alternation to greatly improve the suitability of the school and the experience of the building users. The routing within the existing building is poor, with disconnected spaces and lack of flexible learning opportunities. Although the current and projected pupil roll is lower than the planned roll, extensions to the building cannot be ruled out as a requirement to achieve improved and optimal suitability, it may be necessary to construct new spaces that address existing poor design or provide new flexible areas for teaching. An extensive refurbishment of both building fabric and layout would require a carefully planned and controlled phased project. Maintaining safe access to key teaching and assembly spaces whilst construction works progresses elsewhere on the site. It would be prudent to consider use of temporary buildings for teaching spaces, or if possible, decant of pupils during the construction phase. Although the site is large, some 22 acres, it is also heavily slopped, approximately 10m rise across the site. This represents a challenging design parameter if considering a new build replacement of Johnstone High School on the same site.
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Appendix 3 – Trinity High School Strategic Case for Change
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Trinity High School Strategic Case for Change Version V1.4 Date: 25/07/2025
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Contents 1. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 3 2. Background .............................................................................................................................................................. 4 3. Strategic Case ........................................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1 Strategic Alignment ............................................................................................................................................. 5 3.2 Trinity High School – Local Context and Key Facts ............................................................................................. 7 3.2.1 Description of the current school site ............................................................................................................ 8 3.2.2 Location ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2.3 Key Facts ........................................................................................................................................................ 10 3.2.4 Capacity and Projection Information ........................................................................................................... 11 3.2.5 Operating Costs ............................................................................................................................................. 11 4. Need for Change .................................................................................................................................................... 12 4.4 Case for change and spending objectives......................................................................................................... 12 4.5 Business Needs .................................................................................................................................................. 12 4.6 Scope and Service Requirements...................................................................................................................... 14 4.7 Main Benefits .................................................................................................................................................... 14 4.8 Main Risks & Constraints .................................................................................................................................. 15 4.9 Dependencies .................................................................................................................................................... 15 5 Economic Case ....................................................................................................................................................... 16 5.4 Critical success factors ...................................................................................................................................... 16 6 Commercial, Financial and Management Cases ................................................................................................... 17 6.4 Commercial Case ............................................................................................................................................... 17 6.5 Financial Case .................................................................................................................................................... 17 6.6 Management case ............................................................................................................................................. 18 7 Next Steps .............................................................................................................................................................. 19 8 Appendix A – Description of the current school site ............................................................................................ 20
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1. Executive Summary The purpose of this Strategic Case for Change is to explore the existing structure of Trinity High School, a denominational secondary school in Renfrew, and the opportunities that could be gained by assessing the associated challenges presented both now and in the future. This strategic assessment examines and considers the context of key issues which will limit, both now and increasingly in the future if not addressed, the ability to deliver against the identified strategic objectives for the Council’s learning estate. These key issues stem principally from a building with deteriorating condition and a poorly rated suitability assessment for its ability to effectively deliver the curriculum. Additionally, the school is operating at an increasingly high rate with pupil roll projections showing that this figure could rise above 100% of current capacity in years to come. In this context a decision was made to progress with this review at the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board in March 2025 where it was agreed that the strategic business case should progress for Trinity High School as the number one school on the identified prioritisation list of the Learning Estate Strategy, to be addressed. This Strategic Case for Change is a product of Renfrewshire Council’s new approach to develop the long-term Learning Estate Strategy and establishes a succinct strategic overview of the current context of Trinity High School and key issues that require to be addressed. This initial strategic assessment will support progression to the next stage of the business case process which provides a structured and staged development approach to ensure the Council is able to make the very best investment decisions in our learning establishments. This also works to ensure our establishments are best positioned in the future to meet the strategic objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy, the Scottish Government’s national Learning Estate Strategy, and the Fairer Renfrewshire Policy. This strategic assessment stage examines the current operating context at Trinity High School with reference to the 8 objectives identified in the Council’s learning estate strategy, clearly articulating the current baseline position and identifying areas where existing arrangements are failing to provide the best possible opportunity to support the Council to deliver against these objectives.
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2. Background In August 2024, Renfrewshire Council approved a new Learning Estate strategy and subsequently produced a prioritisation assessment across the whole of the existing Learning Estate. The methodology underpinning this new approach highlighted Trinity High School as the number one priority investment requirement. Additionally, in October 2024, long term school roll projection data was published following development of a new strategic whole estate model for the Council which highlighted that whilst Trinity High School currently operates at 95% of capacity, by 2033/34, it is predicted to be working at 116% of capacity if there is no intervention. The assessment conducted as part of the Learning Estate to consider the current and projected pupil numbers at Trinity High School and how the school could cope with an increased demand showed that It was immediately evident that with a constrained site, deteriorating condition, and poor suitability for delivering the curriculum, intervention would be required. This Strategic Case for Change considers information on the current operating context of Trinity High School and examines the risks, constraints, dependencies and potential benefits involved in considering future provision. In commencing this study, consideration has been given to the likelihood of major housebuilding taking place in Renfrewshire in the next 10+ years that is not currently anticipated, given the impact this could have on the school roll projections Trinity High School. Whilst there is no evidence that future housing development will take place in the catchment that has not already been taken account of in existing long term school roll modelling to the extent that it may materially impact demand on schools, it is recognised that the Council is progressing the new local development plan, covering the period from 2028 to 2038, which will need to identify land for over 5,000 new homes across Renfrewshire. There are no firm indications at present of where in Renfrewshire those new houses may be built, with much depending on identification of suitable land and the commercial appeal for housebuilders and developers. The selected sites will feature in the proposed Local Development Plan due to be published in 2026 where any implications for the long-term strategic Learning Estate will be appropriately identified and considered.
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3. Strategic Case 3.1 Strategic Alignment Renfrewshire Council recently approved plans to improve its education infrastructure through a new long term Learning Estate Strategy. The strategy takes a structured approach to assessment of the learning estate through a prioritisation framework, aiming to identify those areas most in need of consideration as part of long term investment planning to ensure that limited capital investment capacity is directed where they will have the most impact through the reshaping, refurbishing or replacing of existing facilities. The framework makes use of Core Facts data to assess the Condition, Sufficiency and Suitability of the Local Authority’s learning estate (Core Facts 2,3 and 4 of Scottish Government’s assessment criteria for school buildings), as well as quartile data to represent deprivation levels, to rank schools across Renfrewshire in order of priority. This approach has illustrated that Renfrewshire’s learning estate presents a mixed picture, with a cohort of high quality school facilities reflecting significant investment over the last 20 years, but with a significant cohort that are either ageing and will require significant refurbishment or replacement in the longer term as part of a 25 year strategy, through to those of most immediate priority that are in poor condition, compromising the Council’s aim of creating the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive. Trinity High School featured among the 14 ‘priority’ schools identified through the strategy as requiring action to bring them up to the required standards. As Paisley Grammar School is already being addressed through the delivery of a new build school and community campus, Trinity High School is the current highest priority school to be addressed in Renfrewshire. The schools are listed below for reference: Ranking School Location 1 Paisley Grammar School Paisley 2 Trinity High School Renfrew 3= Auchenlodment Primary Johnstone 3= Heriot Primary Paisley 3= Johnstone High School Johnstone 3= St Peter’s Primary Paisley 4= Bridge of Weir Primary Bridge of Weir 4= Thorn Primary Johnstone 4= West Primary Paisley 4= Castlehead High Paisley 4= St Margaret’s Primary Johnstone 4= Gallowhill Primary Paisley 4= Brediland Primary Paisley
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Ranking School Location 5 St Catherine’s Primary Paisley Table 1: ‘Top 14’ priority schools The 2024 Learning Estate Strategy aligns with the Scottish Government’s National Learning Estate Strategy and other key Council policies. In taking significant steps to improve its education Infrastructure, Renfrewshire Council’s Learning Estate Strategy has a stated aim to ‘provide learning environments suitable for the 21st Century’. The strategy features a structured methodology used to assess the current learning estate and help council identify areas in most need of investment and attention. The methodology will help develop a long-term funding model to support the required investment programme. The strategy sets out a strategic vision with a priority to create the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive, identifying the following 8 objectives as key to defining what is necessary to deliver this ambition: 17. Condition 18. Suitability 19. Sufficiency 20. Inclusivity 21. Digital 22. Sustainability and Net Zero 23. Community Facilities and Place shaping 24. Active Travel Objectives 1-3 mirror the Core Facts reporting requirements set by Scottish Government and this highlights the overall importance of the basic structure, design and size relative to school population in assessing if Renfrewshire’s schools are fit for purpose as defined by the strategy. The overarching aim in Renfrewshire is to ensure that its schools are modern, accessible to all, and support the delivery of high-quality education for all learners. The ambitions set out in council policy and vision include the following: • Improving the Condition of Schools Renfrewshire is focusing on improving the condition of its school buildings, in line with the Scottish Government's commitment to enhancing the learning environment. This includes refurbishment and upgrading projects to modernise older schools and ensure they meet current educational and environmental standards. This aligns with the National Learning Estate Strategy's call for investment in schools to ensure they are fit for purpose, energy-efficient, and conducive to modern teaching methods. • Sustainability and Energy Efficiency Renfrewshire’s Learning Estate Strategy places a strong emphasis on sustainability, aligning with Scottish Government aims to reduce the carbon footprint of school buildings. For example, incorporating energy- efficient designs and renewable energy solutions. This contributes to national climate change goals and ensures long-term savings on energy costs. • Equity and Inclusion Reflecting the Scottish Government's priority of equity in access to quality facilities, Renfrewshire’s strategy includes a focus on ensuring that pupils, regardless of their socio-economic background, have access to high-quality learning environments. Additionally, Renfrewshire’s approach aligns with the
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government's goal of inclusivity, ensuring that schools are accessible to pupils with disabilities, and offer a range of resources to support the well-being of all learners. • Adapting to Future Educational Needs As part of its strategy, Renfrewshire is ensuring that schools can adapt to the evolving needs of education, much in the same way the Scottish Government calls for schools to be designed for flexibility. This involves creating flexible learning spaces that support a variety of teaching methods, including digital learning and collaborative projects. In addition, Renfrewshire has been exploring new ways to integrate modern technology into school buildings, creating environments that facilitate 21st-century learning. • Community and Public Use Renfrewshire's strategy mirrors the Scottish Government’s emphasis on community engagement. The local authority prioritises designs that enable schools to be used by the wider community. This aligns with the government’s call for multi-use spaces that benefit both pupils and the surrounding community, such as sports facilities, meeting spaces, and halls for local events. • Strategic Planning and Investment Renfrewshire has developed a long-term strategy for school estates, consistent with the National Learning Estate Strategy’s focus on strategic planning and investment. The local authority has set out a clear framework for identifying schools that require replacement, refurbishment, or upgrading, and will seek funding through national initiatives where available. • Collaborative Approach with Stakeholders Just as the Scottish Government advocates for collaboration between local authorities, communities, and other stakeholders in the development of the learning estate, Renfrewshire has adopted a consultative approach. This includes engaging with staff, parents, and pupils when planning refurbishments or new schools, ensuring that the voice of the community is central to decision-making processes. In addition, Renfrewshire Council’s Strategic Property Review (SPR), Fairer Renfrewshire Policy, and Learning Estate Strategy are interconnected and support each other in creating an efficient, equitable, and sustainable public sector estate. The SPR will ensure that public facilities are strategically located, optimised, and used to their fullest potential, helping to achieve the goals of reducing inequality, providing inclusive access, services, and ensuring long-term sustainability creating strong alignment with the Council’s Fairer Renfrewshire objectives. Through careful planning, the SPR will help ensure that schools and other public assets contribute to the region's broader objectives of community wellbeing, accessibility, and educational excellence. The desire to review and develop Trinity High School is in line with these policies and ambitions. 3.2 Trinity High School – Local Context and Key Facts Trinity High School currently sits in the town of Renfrew which is the 2nd largest in Renfrewshire with a population of almost 23,000, lying 2 miles north of Paisley. It is split into two electoral wards for local authority elections, returning seven councillors in total. Renfrew grew around shipbuilding and engineering in the 18th and 19th centuries with the population increasing throughout this time. Heavy industry in Renfrew declined throughout the late 20th century, however the population has continued to grow as service industries and light engineering firms became established in Renfrew, in nearby Hillington industrial estate and around Glasgow Airport. Within Renfrew, circa 67% of households are owner-occupied with the remaining 33% formed of rental accommodation, half of which is local authority owned. Several neighbourhoods in Renfrew fall within the two most deprived centiles as measured by the Scottish index of multiple deprivation (SIMD).
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Whilst the school building sits in Renfrew, the catchment of Trinity stretches across the full northern boundary of Renfrewshire covering sections of North Paisley, Renfrew, Inchinnan and Erskine, Bishopton and Dargavel and Langbank. This means that the school catchment spans five separate electoral wards for local authority elections, returning eighteen councillors in total. Within the wider catchment of Trinity, there are two other secondary schools, each being a non- denominational school. These are: • Renfrew High School • Park Mains High School Additionally, there are thirteen primary schools in the wider catchment split across each of the geographical areas the catchment spans. In setting out the facts of this document which focuses on the priority establishment identified, Trinity High School, detailed analysis is not provided on the additional 14 schools in the catchment of Trinity (13 primary + Park Mains High School). A key concept of the Learning Estate Strategy is that no establishment will be considered in isolation, and therefore it is possible that additional establishments could feature in the list of potential options presented at the next stage of business case development. 3.2.1 Description of the current school site Trinity High school is located to the north of the Renfrew area, within a larger mixed-use urban site. The main school building was completed in 1964 with annex’s housing sports provision and additional teaching spaces added in the late 1990’s.
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The school had 918 pupils by the end of the 2024/25 academic year from S1 to S6. 6% of the current school roll attend the school via a placing request, with a further similar level attending from within the wider catchment that did not attend an associated primary school. The school has a site area of 19,516m2 (4.82 Acres). Although the school is well located for easy access from adjacent principal routes connecting Renfrew to the wider area, the site is very constrained and significantly smaller than that of a comparable school and is effectively landlocked by adjoining sites. It should also be noted that the site size of 4.82 Acres falls short of the mandatory minimum site requirements prescribed for a school, should it be built in this current day. As a comparison, the total site of the current Trinity of 4.82 Acres, can be compared to that of the new Paisley Grammar School Community Campus which sits on a site 3 x the size at 15 Acres. A full overview of the current site is presented in Appendix A of this document. 3.2.2 Location A map of Renfrew is shown below, indicating the location of Trinity High School in relation to local primary schools in the town, as well as Renfrew High School. A map is also shown of the wider Trinity Catchment and its location/span in Renfrewshire which follows the description noted previously in this document.
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Map of the town of Renfrew showing local schools. Map of the Trinity catchment area covering the north of Renfrew East to West boundary of the local authority 3.2.3 Key Facts Trinity High School is an ageing building at 61 years old. The building has undergone several adaptations and refurbishments over the years but is in need of significant financial investment to bring it to an acceptable standard and maintain it at that position. A recent building condition survey assessed Trinity High School as ‘B - Satisfactory’, with an expectation that £10m will need to be spent on required maintenance over the following 20 years to keep the school operating at that level. It should be noted that this £10m would not work to make any meaningful adaptations or improvements to the school grounds, suitability, and overall ability to meet the objectives of the Learning Estate Strategy and will simply offer an improvement to the condition of the current building configuration. The school suffers from a poor suitability assessment which is the measure of how well the building configuration and operation supports effective delivery of the curriculum. The main challenges posed by the suitability assessment relate to the layout of the building with multiple extensions and additional sections added over the years. There is also a distinct lack of flexible space for matters
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such as additional support needs, and curriculum flexibility, and the school does not have sufficient external area for access or use. Key information related to Trinity High School shows the following: School Age Suitability Condition Trinity High School 61 C B Table 2: Key Facts 3.2.4 Capacity and Projection Information Trinity High School is a denominational secondary school, situated in the centre of Renfrew and associated with primary schools in Renfrew, Gallowhill, and Erskine. It has a planning capacity of 1,026 pupils and current roll of 977, which is 95% of capacity. The school provides secondary education from 1st to 6th year. The school has a large catchment area, from Langbank and Bishopton to the northwest, through Renfrew and Gallowhill in Paisley to the southeast. On this basis, in the last school year, 222 pupils (23%) were entitled to council-funded home to school transport, with this figure expected to increase in coming years with projected housing development in the wider catchment. Analysis of current and anticipated pupil demand at Trinity High School shows that the roll is expected to increase in the coming years, taking it to a potential 116% of capacity in the next ten years which is the current furthest available projection period. This is one of the driving factors for considering Trinity as a priority need for investment to be able to develop a building capable of accommodating long term projected catchment pupil demand. School Capacity Current Roll Roll 2025/26 Roll 2029/30 Roll 2033/34 Trinity High School 1032 977 (95%) 1,026 (99.5%) 1,110 (107%) 1,204 (116%) Table 3: Roll Projections 3.2.5 Operating Costs Data has been analysed to investigate the operating costs of Trinity High School. This includes aspects such as utilities, hard and soft FM, staff costs, and matters such as waste disposal and transport. The overall operational expenditure of Trinity High School is in excess of £6.5m per year. Detailed analysis on operating costs will be undertaken at future business case stages.
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4. Need for Change 4.1 Case for Change and Investment Objectives The objectives associated with any investment projects which ultimately emerge from this business case process seek to align with the overall ambition of Renfrewshire’s Learning Estate Strategy. The guiding vision is to create the best possible learning environments to allow children and young people to thrive at Trinity High School; to ensure learning environments are fit for 21st century education; that learning environments are of a size and capacity that enables them to operate at optimal occupancy. The overall objective for investing in the future estate will be to ensure the provision of modern learning facilities aligned to meet the projected long-term roll, articulated as follows: • Effectiveness – Meeting the aims of the 2024 Learning Estate Strategy will initiate a strategic programme of investment in schools. The strategy will ensure that every school is considered in terms of Scottish Government Core Facts reporting criteria. The intention is to deliver the best learning environments and facilities possible, exceeding, where able, Scottish Government recommendations. • Efficiency – Provision of modern learning environments will help support the ambition to improve attainment for pupils in Renfrewshire • Economy – Operating costs for the estate should be lower than currently, through the increased efficiency of modern power and heating systems and through operation of a more efficient overall school estate; offering a reduction in the costs incurred maintaining ageing buildings; a reduction in cost through the operation of buildings of a size suited to current and projected school rolls. • Compliance – Renfrewshire Council’s net zero policy acknowledges that the learning estate is a major contributor to the Council’s total combined carbon footprint. As such, careful planning for the replacement or refurbishment of primary schools would lessen the impact from older building and make a valuable contribution to the Council’s commitments. • Replacement – The project acknowledges that as primary schools age and maintenance costs increase, they come closer to the point of being no longer fit for purpose as a Council asset. 4.2 Business Needs Renfrewshire Council is required by Scottish Government to collect data on its learning estate to help with assessment and planning at both local and national level. The data covers the suitability, condition and sufficiency of school buildings. The 2024 Learning Estate Strategy reflects this by identifying condition, suitability and sufficiency as Strategic Objectives 1, 2 and 3, underlining the importance of these measures in any assessment of school buildings and their viability. In terms of Core Fact 2 (Condition), as noted, the most recent building condition survey assessed Trinity High School as ‘B - Satisfactory’, with an expectation that £10m will need to be spent on
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required maintenance over the following 20 years to keep the school operating. Again, this investment is simply essential ongoing maintenance investment to retain the current building at this standard, and will not allow for any improvements to the configuration of the school, or be able to support any increased capacity through building adaptation. In terms of Core Fact 3 (Sufficiency), assessments of schools focus on pupil places at individual schools and in localities. When combined with pupil projection data, this can help local authorities plan for the medium to long term, matching availability to demand. With recent demand at Trinity High School remaining high and projected demand in 2033/34 higher still, Renfrewshire Council cannot meet its objective of schools operating at optimal occupancy (80-95%) with the current building as it stands. In terms of Core Fact 4 (Suitability), the most recent assessment for Trinity High School rated the school as ‘C - Poor’, indicating that school ‘buildings and grounds impede the delivery of services.’ As this assessment is based on responses from school staff, it can be seen from the survey that in general, the environment falls short of what is required to deliver the curriculum. As noted in the site description section of this document, the current site of Trinity falls short of the mandatory minimum size requirements that a school would require to be built on, if it were being built today. This is a large contributing factor to the constraints and challenges posed by the school as it stands. Assessment of these aspects of the building’s operational effectiveness highlight some of the opportunities and challenges associated with the school as it is now: Condition: • The building condition is such that Renfrewshire Council faces significant outlay in maintenance costs over the next 20 years • Accessibility is flagged as an issue in upper floors of the school, rendering some aspects of the original design inadequate. Suitability: • Whilst the building generally supports service delivery now, its capacity to adopt and adapt further to new teaching methods, developments in classroom design and equipment, will limit future suitability • A new or refurbished school would offer an opportunity to ensure the very best teaching environment for secondary pupils in the catchment to better support attainment. Sufficiency: • There will be an ongoing demand for denominational secondary education in Renfrew as evidenced in the roll projections for the school. This figure is growing through continued housing development in the catchment. • The school cannot match current and future demand with the space and facilities available. • Renfrewshire Council’s admissions policy may help alleviate some pressure on demand but does not address the poor suitability of the building. Provision of a new or refurbished denominational high school in Renfrew offers an opportunity to provide a
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well-designed school equipped with modern facilities and infrastructure built to match projected demand. Such a school also offers lower operating and maintenance costs and would contribute to the Council’s net zero ambitions. 4.3 Scope and Service Requirements As work progresses to identify a preferred way forward for Trinity High School, officers will work to articulate the scope and service requirements involved in providing a school that satisfies the business needs and vision identified in the Learning Estate Strategy. Future iterations of this business case will identify the minimum viability criteria (MVC) for those key services, business functions and operational capabilities required to deliver the stated ambition to create the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive. The MVC for delivery of a modern, accessible learning environment that meets the business needs identified here will be broken down as follows: • Core services and aspects representing the essential changes, without which, the project cannot be judged as a success • Desirable services and aspects representing the additional changes which the project can potentially justify on a cost/benefit and therefore value for money basis • Optional services and aspects representing possible changes which the project can potentially justify on a marginal low cost/affordability basis. Such an approach will assist in avoiding ‘scope creep during any options appraisal stage of the project. The following represent a starting point in any discussion of MVC for current learning estate projects: • Must meet the vision and ambition of the Learning Estate strategy • Must be affordable within the wider goals of the Learning Estate Strategy • Must offer best value • Must not limit our ability to address competing priorities • Must have the potential to cater for community use 4.4 Main Benefits • The overarching benefit of the approach articulated in this business case will be the modernisation of Trinity High School, making it fit for purpose, with the intention that in future, pupils will be educated in the best possible learning environments • The output delivered by any intervention will be capable of achieving the objectives set out in the Learning Estate Strategy and will be capable of accommodating required pupil demand. • A reduction in building operational costs through modern, sustainable, and efficient buildings with a reduced need for maintenance of dilapidated buildings. • A reduction in Renfrewshire Council’s carbon footprint through the operation of a school better equipped to meet energy performance targets through more efficient operation.
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4.5 Main Risks & Constraints All options developed in the next steps of business case process will fully consider risks and the feasibility of being able to deliver proposed solutions as well as wider risk that require to be considered as part of a wider strategic investment programme of significant scale, including any future changes to key drivers on school roll projections, long term affordability requirements, capacity to deliver proposals, identifying a suitable site for any option that includes a new build school, or being able to decant or work around an operational school. 4.6 Dependencies • Wider review of the learning estate in Renfrew • Renfrewshire Council schools’ admission policies • Renfrewshire Council’s Strategic Property Review – The Strategic Property Review recognises that schools are a significant portion of the property portfolio and that there is an opportunity to ensure Council optimises use of facilities through colocation. • 2026 Local Development Plan • ASN Provision – Future strategy for ASN provision will be reflected in proposals for changes to the learning estate in Renfrew. This will be managed through direct links to the Inclusion team and the ASN management team. • Community Use – considering the dependency to the Strategic Property Review, there is a further dependency to understand the community needs in designing new learning estate provisions. • Early years provision – it is essential to consider early years with any reprovision or new build establishment where spaces currently exist in the locality.
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5. Economic Case 5.1 Critical success factors The critical success factors described here will develop further with the Five Case Model. They will help to identify and assess a long-list options and to identify a preferred way forward for the project in future iterations of this business case Strategic fit and business needs • How well will options meet the objective of providing a proposed investment priorities to complement and enhance the quality of school provision for Trinity? • How effectively will options overcome the strategic challenges identified of operating schools which are in poor condition with excess capacity and high operational costs? • How well can the options fit Renfrewshire Council’s Learning Estate Strategy and other Council and Scottish Government policies and ambitions for education? Potential Value for Money • How effectively will the options optimise the social, economic and environmental value to the community and the wider learning estate in terms of potential costs, benefits and risks? Supplier capacity and capability • Will options match the ability of providers to deliver any required design and construction services? • How attractive will options appear to potential suppliers of design and construction services? Potential affordability • Can options be funded from available sources of finance? • How easily will options align with resourcing constraints recognising the Council will continue to face affordability constraints over the long term in relation to the scale of investment that is both affordable in the short term but also financially sustainable in the long term.? Potential achievability • How likely is it that options will match Renfrewshire Council’s ability to respond to and facilitate the required changes? • Will options match the skills at Renfrewshire Council required for successful delivery? • How well will the options seek to address the aspiration, need and ambition of the school and wider community in the vicinity of the school.
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6. Commercial, Financial and Management Cases 6.1 Commercial Case The marketplace for design and construction services in Scotland is mature and well-developed, particularly in the central belt, where there is a good choice of multi-disciplinary consultancies, Tier 1 contractors and specialist sub-contractors. Whilst there is proven experience in delivering complex public sector infrastructure, such as building new schools and refurbishing existing schools, it is important to stress that the construction market remains more volatile relative to long term historic conditions. It may, however, be inferred that the market is well-placed to cater to any options involving new-build or retrofitted schools. Such projects offer high-profile and high value opportunities for companies to showcase capabilities and expertise, adding to their attraction. Similarly, Renfrewshire Council’s approach to collaborative procurement offers alignment to national procurement frameworks, simplifying access to opportunities and reducing bidding costs for suppliers. Risk allocation is a key factor in market engagement, with the use of standardised contracts (such as SBCC) common to Renfrewshire Council procurement practice, helping balance the approach to risk sharing. Key risks are generally managed through early contractor involvement and active pre- construction planning. Construction projects such as new school building typically follow a design-and-build or 2-stage tender model, with cost certainty delivered through target cost arrangements. Such arrangements are familiar to suppliers in Scotland and promote Renfrewshire Council’s objectives for value for money and delivery assurance. The Council’s procurement strategy outlines its commitment to maximising public value through economies of scale, sustainable procurement and collaborative delivery of projects. The strategy emphasises community benefits, sustainability in construction and prompt payment as key to enhancing the attractiveness of a project. As the Council progresses the wider Learning Estate Strategy and greater certainty is established over the scale and timing of planned investment projects there will be a specific workstream to develop an associated procurement strategy for the Council. On the assumption the Council will, through the Learning Estate Strategy, begin to establish a sustained pipeline of future investment projects at scale, this will present the opportunity to consider a range of strategic procurement approaches to secure long term benefits for the Council in terms of value for money and management of risks across procurement activity, construction sector, economic & financial risks as well as project specific risk. Opportunities in this regard will be explored and outlined in greater detail as the business case process moves towards the final stages. 6.2 Financial Case Renfrewshire Council set a balanced budget of £571.5m for 2025/26 which includes a grant from Scottish Government of £469m. Despite continuing economic and financial pressures, the council has been able to demonstrate prudent financial management in maintaining a reserve of £10m and a projected underspend of £1.6m as of January 2025.
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This balanced revenue position has been maintained despite continuing constraints due to rising service demands, inflation and wider economic uncertainty. Ongoing commitment to social equity and policies that support the vulnerable in Renfrewshire may place some strain on, and limit flexibility of, council’s ability to spend without offsetting savings or seeking alternative sources of income. The strategic overview and Case for Change presented in this document has highlighted the underlying need for investment in key areas of the existing Trinity High School. With an ageing estate in poor condition this situation is expected to add further financial demand to the Council with no intervention. It is also evident that notwithstanding affordability and financial sustainability considerations, there is an opportunity to invest in Trinity High School to be able to achieve the stated ambitions of the Learning Estate Strategy. In this context and despite the current and expected continuation of financial challenge over the medium term, the Council has put in place arrangements to secure in the region of £170m of initial future investment capacity to support the strategic learning estate. It has been recognised that the scale of investment that will be required across the whole learning estate over the full 25-year strategic planning period will be very significant and likely to run into billions of pounds to deliver the ambitions over the long term. The Council will therefore be required to continue to strategically plan for growing this investment capacity over the long term to ensure as an organisation, investment priorities that are approved to move forward are both affordable to deliver but critically are financially sustainable over the very long term and this will form a key part of the overall business case process as it progresses. 6.3 Management case Currently, Renfrewshire Council is undertaking several capital projects focussed on learning estate improvements, covering both primary and secondary schools. This work has built on existing expertise within the key teams likely to be involved in any project to improve the provision of Trinity, giving the Council an experienced pool of resources to draw from. Work is underway within Children’s Services to create a dedicated Learning Estate Programme Team to deliver on the ambition of the Learning Estate Strategy. Learning Estate projects will be overseen at Chief Officer level by the Director of Children’s Services who acts as Senior Responsible Owner (SRO) for all projects, with senior leadership being assumed by the Head of Education for Strategy and Improvement on behalf of the Director. All Learning Estate projects will be led by the Strategic Learning Estate Manager who holds senior accountability to the SRO with day-to-day project leadership covering all aspects of projects from inception, business case delivery, design, through to construction execution. This leadership hierarchy will ensure that projects are successfully delivered upholding quality across project time, cost, and scope, ultimately delivering the intended outcomes and high-quality learning establishments for all. Each project will require bespoke levels of resource depending on the scale and complexity but will follow a consistent approach. A dedicated Programme Manager will lead the overall success and delivery of the programme by implementing and executing full governance and control across all projects, supporting the Strategic Learning Estate Manager. Project management resource will be provided by the Council’s Programme Management Unit to cover business case development, business change processes, and fundamental project management governance throughout the lifecycle. Technical expertise will be provided by the
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Councils’ Property Services who will provide construction project management, contract management, and subject matter expert roles where appropriate through design and delivery. Additional resources will be required for each project with ongoing resource allocation underway covering critical services such as Finance, Communications, Education, Procurement, and Legal. All resources allocated to Learning Estate projects will report to the Strategic Learning Estate Manager for their involvement in these projects. Given the scale and complexity expected in some cases, support and professional advice will be provided by the Technical Services Programme Manager, and the Head of Facilities and Property Services, Managing Solicitor (Projects), and the Strategic Category Manager where appropriate. All projects will be monitored using standard project management tools, and will report to the Learning Estate Project Board, the Learning Estate Delivery Board and the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board at agreed intervals. The Council has developed significant experience over the past 15 years delivering major and complex investment programmes across the learning estate (which includes three major projects currently in delivery), leisure estate, cultural estate as well as major transport infrastructure. This experience places the Council in a strong position to understand the resource and governance arrangements required to deliver investment programmes of scale and this will be invaluable to support the Council’s investment focus shifting to a long-term strategic learning estate investment programme. 7. Next Steps Following the provision of the information set out in this document, it is clear that a positive change for the Trinity High School catchment is required to address a lack of capacity at a school which is not able to suitably deliver an evolving curriculum or support community needs. By utilising the information set out in this Strategic Case for Change, this review of requirements for the Trinity High School catchment will now progress to the Outline Business Case (OBC) stage. At that stage, a long list of options will be identified and subsequently analysed to objectively reduce to a short list of viable options. These options should be capable of addressing the issues set out in this Case for Change and seek to deliver on the specific objectives of Renfrewshire’s Learning Estate Strategy whilst working to deliver the best possible learning estate to allow children and young people to thrive.
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8. Appendix A – Description of the current school site Existing conditions at Trinity High School. Trinity High school is located to the north of the Renfrew area, within a larger mixed-use urban site. The school takes up most of the town block with commercial units along Hairst Street, a mix of residential types on High Street and Glebe Street, with Renfrew Old Parish Church the other major adjoining neighbour to the north of the site on High Street. The school had 918 pupils by the end of the 2024/25 academic year from S1 to S6. 866 (94%) of those pupils were resident within the catchment area, with 44 (6%) attending from elsewhere. Of the 910 eligible pupils who live within the catchment area, 44 attend school elsewhere in Renfrewshire, 29 at St Andrew’s Academy and 15 at St Benedict’s High School. The main entrance is on Glebe Street, providing access for both vehicles and pedestrians. This connects to an open area of parking and school courtyard and the public entrance to the school. A second entrance is located centrally on Queen Street which provides access to a staff parking area. A dedicated pedestrian entrance to the school is towards the southern end of Glebe Street and provides direct access to the school technical wing. Neither of the parking areas are segregated from pedestrian routes and there is a lot of crossover of pupils and traffic movement, particularly at the start of the school day. The school has a site area of 19,516m2 (4.82 Acres). Although the school is well located for easy access from adjacent principal routes connecting Renfrew to the wider area, the site is very constrained. The overall area of 19,516m2 is significantly smaller than that of a comparable school and is effectively landlocked by adjoining sites, leaving few opportunities for extension or development. It should also be noted that the site size of 4.82 Acres falls short of the mandatory minimum site requirements prescribed for a school, should it be built in this current day. As a
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comparison, the total site of the current Trinity of 4.82 Acres, can be compared to that of the new Paisley Grammar School Community Campus which sits on a site 3 x the size at 15 Acres. The main school building was completed in 1964 with annex’s housing sports provision and additional teaching spaces added in the late 1990’s. The main school building is a concrete frame with masonry infills with flat and mono-pitched roofs. The school is formed in wings around a central courtyard with the annex’s located at the peripheries of the site. Annexes, generally, are single story with the main building being a mix of two- and three-story floor plates. There have been a number of upgrade projects across the site, including large scale window replacement, construction of the annexes and the formation of the all-weather pitches. Adaptability Due to the restricted nature of the existing site, there is little opportunity for outward expansion or development of external learning areas. The various annexes and single-story buildings take up a significant proportion of the site. A redevelopment of the existing building to meet future needs and requirements under net zero legislation would need to be radical in nature. Feasibility options would need to consider areas for demolition, cleared to make space for improved external learning. Consideration of building upward, increasing the number of levels to the existing building to address an increasing pupil role, improved suitability and overall net zero targets. The technical and logistical aspects of a refurbishment project at Trinity High School would be significant. There is very little space for contractor compound, site storage and access to the facades of the building. The disruption to the school would be significant and prolonged as the project would require a complex building programme completed over a multiple of phases. The impact of construction traffic on local congestion levels as well on neighbouring residential areas would need to be carefully considered. A new build project on the site would face similar issues with the existing site restrictions, close proximity of adjoining site boundaries and overall small site area. Although the site could house an appropriately sized new-build school, it would likely need to be a three- and four-story design to meet accommodation requirements. However, no design would be able to address the inadequacies of the site area. The site represents approximately a third of the site area recommended for a high school of this size. The external learning, social and sports spaces will always be compromised and significantly smaller than comparable high schools. Likely with a refurbishment, and certainly with a new-build project, a decant of the school would be necessary to accommodate the construction works.