Outcomes for 2023 24 School Leavers ECSPB
Renfrewshire Council · 15 May 2025
Back to Education and Children's Services Policy Board — 15 May 2025 and its agenda
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Page 1 of 17 To: Education and Children’s Services Policy Board On: 15 May 2025 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Children’s Services ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Outcomes for 2023/24 School Leavers ___________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1. The Scottish Government releases annual data on the destination and attainment of school leavers. This report will provide data and commentary across a number of key measures for the 2023/24 leavers cohort. 1.2. The data shows that despite increases in the number of pupils leaving school at earlier stages, Renfrewshire has increased the percentage of leavers entering a positive destination and now has the 5th highest rate in Scotland. ___________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1. Members of the Education and Children’s Services Policy Board are asked to note: • the content of this report; and • the efforts of our young people and the school staff and partners in bringing about these results. 3. Background 3.1. The Scottish Government provides data to schools and education authorities as a way of benchmarking performance in a number of key measures: • leavers’ destinations
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Page 2 of 17 • attainment in literacy and numeracy; • improving attainment for all; • attainment versus deprivation; and • breadth and depth 3.2. This report will provide data and commentary on the performance of the 2023/24 leavers cohort in these key measures. A leavers cohort includes all pupils that left school within a year, regardless of the stage they were at when they left school. Renfrewshire has had increasing numbers of leavers in S4 and S5 which negatively impacts attainment figures, as pupils leaving at earlier stages are not able to gain the same amount of qualifications as those who stay on to S6. The proportion of school leavers leaving at S4 in Renfrewshire has steadily increased in the years since and during COVID-19, from 7% of leavers at this stage in 2019/20 (113 young people) to 11% in 2023/24 (199 young people). The focus for Renfrewshire schools is to ensure that these pupils have the qualifications that they need to enter into a positive destination when they leave school. 3.3. The time period covered by these statistics means that the results will be affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Attainment figures were inflated during the pandemic period due to the replacement of exam diets with alternative certification models. The following year’s exam diets were adjusted to compensate for the significant disruption for pupils over the previous years. Graph 1: Percentage of Leavers by Stage in Renfrewshire
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Page 3 of 17 As a result, trends appear to show that attainment peaked in 2020-21 and has fallen since. This is visible across Scotland and provides limited value as a comparison over time. 3.4. The INSIGHT tool uses a ‘virtual comparator’ (VC) to allow authorities and schools to make statistically valid comparisons between how young people have performed against young people nationally, who share four similar characteristics. These characteristics are gender, stage of leaving, percentage of time spent in mainstream classes, and Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) decile. INSIGHT also allows us to compare our performance with national data. Leaver Destinations 3.5. This measure identifies the percentage of school leavers that have entered a positive destination. Positive destinations include higher education, further education, employment, activity agreements, personal skills development and voluntary work. 3.6. The percentage of leavers entering a positive destination has increased to 97.1%. This is an increase over 5 years and Renfrewshire is ahead of both the virtual comparator and national figures. Renfrewshire now has the 5th highest leaver destination figure in Scotland. 3.7. The graph below shows the breakdown of the destinations of the 2023/24 leavers cohort. Graph 2: Percentage of School Leavers entering Positive Destinations.
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Page 4 of 17 3.8. In the 2023/24 leavers cohort, 43% of Renfrewshire’s leavers entered higher education, 26% went into further education and 21% were employed. Compared with national figures, Renfrewshire has a higher proportion of pupils entering higher education and a lower proportion in employment. Renfrewshire is broadly in line with the virtual comparator however has slightly lower employment figures and a slightly higher proportion of pupils entering training. Graph 3: School Leaver Destinations 2023/24 Graph 4: Renfrewshire School Leaver Destinations (5 Years)
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Page 5 of 17 3.9. The changes over type in destination types have been impacted by the pandemic with an increased proportion of leavers in higher education during these years. The 2023/24 figures show that although employment is lower than the past 2 years the figure remains 4 percentage points above 2019/20. Further education figures are broadly consistent over 5 years and higher education is lower than the pandemic period but in line with the previous 2 years. The ‘unemployed seeking’ figure is at it’s lowest in 5 years at 1% whereas the figure for leavers entering training is up at it’s highest level at 6%. 3.10. The increase in positive destination figures has largely been driven by improvements in S4 leavers. In 2023/24, this was 98.49%, up from 91.79% in 2022/23 and 91.88% in 2021/22. Nationally the Figure is 91.9%. Attainment in Literacy and Numeracy 3.11. Raising attainment in literacy and numeracy remains a key priority of Renfrewshire Council Children’s Services. This is also one of the Scottish Government’s key priorities as detailed in its National Improvement Framework. 3.12. Attainment in literacy and numeracy includes passes at National 4 and 5 in English and Maths. It also includes passes in some other awards at Scottish Certificate and Qualification Framework (SCQF) levels 4 and 5 which contain certain core elements of literacy and numeracy. The tables which follow provide data on our performance of our school leaver cohort in literacy and numeracy compared to our virtual comparator and national figures. Attainment in Literacy 3.13. The graphs that follow show the percentage of leavers achieving SCQF level 4 and SCQF 5 in literacy over 6 years.
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Page 6 of 17 3.14. The percentage of leavers in Renfrewshire achieving literacy at SCQF level 4 or above decreased marginally since 2022/23. Renfrewshire remains ahead of the national figures and in line with the virtual comparator in this measure. In the 2023/24 leavers cohort, 94% of Renfrewshire pupils achieved literacy at SCQF level 4, compared with 93% nationally and 94% for the virtual comparator. Graph 6: Percentage of Leavers Achieved SCQF Level 5 or Above in Literacy. Graph 5: Percentage of Leavers Achieved SCQF Level 4 or Above in Literacy.
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Page 7 of 17 3.15. Attainment in literacy at SCQF level 5 or above has decreased on previous years. However, Renfrewshire remains in line with the virtual comparator and ahead of national figures in this measure. In the 2023/24 leavers cohort 83% of Renfrewshire pupils achieved this measure, compared with 81% nationally and 84% for the virtual comparator. Attainment in Numeracy 3.16. The graphs that follow show the percentage of Renfrewshire leavers who have achieved SCQF level 4 and SCQF level 5 in numeracy over 5 years. 3.17. At SCQF level 4, numeracy attainment is broadly consistent over 5 years. Renfrewshire is consistently ahead of national figures over 5 years and remains in line with the virtual comparator. In the 2023/24 leavers cohort, 93% of Renfrewshire pupils achieved SCQF level 4 numeracy, compared with 91% nationally and 92% for the virtual comparator. These figures are unchanged since 2022/23. Graph 7: Percentage of Leavers Achieved SCQF Level 4 or Above in Numeracy.
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Page 8 of 17 3.18. The percentage of Renfrewshire school leavers achieving SCQF Level 5 or above in numeracy has increased slightly since 2022/23 and remains broadly in line with previous years. Renfrewshire remains ahead of the virtual comparator and national figures in this measure. In the 2023/24 leavers cohort, 76% of Renfrewshire pupils achieved this measure, compared with 72% nationally and 74% for the virtual comparator. Improving Attainment for All 3.19. Each qualification on the Scottish Certificate and Qualifications Framework (SCQF) is attributed a number of tariff points. The higher the level of qualification, the more tariff points are attributed. On leaving school, pupils will have a total tariff score which incorporates their latest and best achievements in the senior phase. 3.20. Within this measure, INSIGHT breaks the data down into three groups of leavers: the lowest attaining 20%, the middle attaining 60% and the highest attaining 20%. It then calculates the average total tariff points for each of these groups and compares their attainment with the virtual comparator and the national figure. Graphs demonstrating trends in each of these groups are shown below. Graph 8: Percentage of Leavers Achieved SCQF Level 5 or Above in Numeracy.
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Page 9 of 17 3.21. The average total tariff of the lowest attaining 20% of leavers in Renfrewshire has decreased on previous years and is lower than pre-pandemic levels. The comparator data follows the same pattern over time. In the 2023/24 leavers cohort, the average total tariff in Renfrewshire was 134. This compares to 129 nationally and 151 for the virtual comparator. 134 tariff points is approximately equivalent to 2 National 5 awards at C grades. Graph 9: Average Total Tariff of Lowest 20% Attainment Cohort Graph 10: Average Total Tariff of Middle 60% Attainment Cohort
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Page 10 of 17 3.22. The performance of the middle 60% attainment cohort in Renfrewshire tracks closely with comparator data. Renfrewshire attainment has increased since 2022/23 and remains in line with pre-pandemic levels. As a result, Renfrewshire is closely in line with the virtual comparator figure and is ahead of the national figure. In the 2023/24 leavers cohort, the average total tariff in Renfrewshire was 883. This compares to 841 nationally and 899 for the virtual comparator. 883 tariff points is approximately equivalent to 2 A grade and 3 C grade Higher awards. 3.23. The average total tariff of school leavers in the highest 20% attainment cohort has increased over 6 years, although there has been minimal change in the previous year. Renfrewshire remains in line with the national figure and marginally below the virtual comparator within the latest data. There was a sharp peak in 2021 for Renfrewshire and it’s comparators which is likely to be the result of the inclusion of 2 years of alternative certification replacing exam diets and increased proportion of S6 leavers. In the 2023/24 leavers cohort, the average total tariff in Renfrewshire was 1925. This compares to 1928 nationally and 1958 for the virtual comparator. 1925 tariff points is approximately equivalent to 5 Higher A grades plus 2 Advanced Higher B grades. Attainment Versus Deprivation 3.24. Closing the poverty related attainment gap is an overarching priority of Children’s Services. Schools in all sectors are getting increasingly better at identifying their most vulnerable pupils and using strategies to try and mitigate the impact of poverty on their attainment. The Scottish Government measures Graph 11: Average Total Tariff of Highest 20% Attainment Cohort
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Page 11 of 17 progress towards closing the poverty related attainment gap using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. SIMD quintiles represent the 20% most deprived areas to the 20% least deprived areas. 3.25. The following chart shows the average total tariff points by SIMD quintiles for Renfrewshire and its comparators. 3.26. In the 2023/24 leavers cohort, Renfrewshire’s average total tariff is ahead of the national figures in all quintiles except quintile 2, but is consistently behind the virtual comparator. The size of the attainment gap between SIMD quintile 1 (20% most deprived) and quintile 5 (20% least deprived) is similar across Renfrewshire and the comparator data. Renfrewshire has a 48% attainment gap, compared with 45% for the virtual comparator and 49% nationally. Graph 12: Average Total Tariff of 2023/24 Leavers by SIMD Quintile
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Page 12 of 17 3.27. Graph 13 shows the average total tariff of school leavers in Renfrewshire over 5 years by SIMD quintile. These figures show similar patterns of attainment across all 5 quintiles however there has been greater increases in attainment in pupils living in least deprived areas over the past year. As a result, the size of the gap has increased by 3 percentage points since 2022/23. 3.28. The service and schools continue to support the Council’s and the Scottish Government’s priority of closing the poverty attainment gap through improving and targeting our provision, utilising the Scottish Attainment Challenge and pupil equity funding. ___________________________________________________________________ 4. Breadth and Depth 4.1. Breadth and depth measures provide information on the percentage of the cohort who achieved any number of awards at various SCQF levels. These measures are included within national reporting and provide a broader picture of pupil attainment. 4.2. There has been an increasing focus on achievement across a wider range of pathways and the breadth and depth measures seek to capture this. The data shown below includes attainment across the SCQF framework in addition to national qualifications. SCQF Level 5 is National 5 or its equivalent, SCQF Level 6 is Higher or its equivalent; and SCQF Level 7 is Advanced Higher or its equivalent. Graph 13: Average Total Tariff of Renfrewshire School Leavers by SIMD Quintile
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Page 13 of 17 4.3. Table 1 shows at attainment at SCQF level 5 (National 5 or equivalent). This data shows that Renfrewshire is consistently above the national figures across 1 or more, 3 or more and 5 or more awards at this level. Renfrewshire is broadly in line with virtual comparator at 1 or more awards and 5 or more awards but marginally behind at 3 or more awards. 4.4. Attainment trends over time in this measure show that there was a peak caused by the alternative certification in 2020 and attainment has slowly returned to normal since this point. Renfrewshire figures are all increased on 2019 figures, with a 10 percentage point increase in the percentage of pupils achieving 5 or more awards at SCQF level 5. 4.5. Table 2 shows attainment at SCQF level 6 (Higher or equivalent). This data shows that Renfrewshire is above the national and virtual comparators across 1 or more, 3 or more and 5 or more awards at this level. 4.6. Attainment trends follow a similar pattern at SCQF level 6, with a peak in 2021 due to the inclusion of 2 years of alternative certification. However the figures show considerable improvement in the 2024 leavers cohort compared to pre- pandemic figures in 2019. The percentage of pupils achieving 5 or more awards at SCQF level 6 has increased by 12 percentage points over this period. __________________________________________________________________ 5. Comparison with Local Authorities Family Group 5.1. To understand why variations in performance are occurring, councils have been organised around ‘family groups’ so that we are comparing councils that are similar in terms of the type of population that they serve (e.g. relative deprivation and affluence) and the type of area in which they serve them (e.g. urban, semi-rural, rural). The point of comparing like with like is that this is more likely to lead to useful learning and improvement. 5.2. Renfrewshire’s family group includes Clackmannanshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Falkirk, Fife, South Ayrshire, South Lanarkshire and West Lothian. Table 2: Attainment at SCQF Level 6 Table 1: Attainment at SCQF Level 5
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Page 14 of 17 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 National 68% 70% 68% 66% 67% Family Group Average 67% 72% 69% 67% 67% Clackmannanshire 54% 62% 59% 57% 60% Dumfries & Galloway 67% 68% 67% 65% 65% Falkirk 69% 75% 70% 71% 70% Fife 61% 63% 61% 60% 59% Renfrewshire 71% 77% 72% 71% 69% South Ayrshire 71% 76% 70% 66% 67% South Lanarkshire 69% 73% 71% 70% 70% West Lothian 75% 80% 79% 79% 79% 5.3. Renfrewshire is consistently ahead of the national and family group averages for 5 or more awards at SCQF level 5. The 2023-24 figure has decreased slightly but remains 2 percentage point ahead of the comparator figures. Renfrewshire was 4th out of the 7 local authorities in the family group in 2023/24. 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 National 40% 42% 39% 38% 39% Family Group Average 39% 43% 39% 38% 39% Clackmannanshire 27% 30% 29% 25% 29% Dumfries & Galloway 36% 37% 34% 34% 34% Falkirk 38% 45% 42% 41% 40% Fife 32% 35% 32% 32% 32% Renfrewshire 42% 48% 42% 39% 42% South Ayrshire 43% 46% 42% 40% 40% South Lanarkshire 41% 44% 41% 40% 42% West Lothian 54% 55% 52% 52% 53% 5.4. Renfrewshire is consistently ahead of national data and the family group average for 5 or more awards at SCQF level 6. The 2023/24 figure increased slightly on the previous year and remains in line with 2019-20. Renfrewshire was 2nd out of the 7 local authorities in 2023-24. ___________________________________________________________________ 6. Moving forward Renfrewshire continues to perform well against national data, with particularly strong figures for school leaver initial destinations. Renfrewshire remains above national and has maintained attainment levels since the previous year across most measures. However, we recognise the scope for further improvement, particularly in relation to reducing the poverty related attainment gap. We will continue to make this a priority as we strive for even further improvement. Table 4: 5+ Awards at SCQF Level 6 Table 3: 5+ Awards at SCQF Level 5
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Page 15 of 17 _______________________________________________________________ 7. Next Steps 7.1. The launch of Renfrewshire’s Learning and Teaching Strategy, ‘The Renfrewshire Way’ will support consistency across all establishments in Renfrewshire. This will support Quality Improvement activity in relation to Quality Indicator 2.3 and promote robust professional dialogue regarding the quality of teaching and learning. 7.2. Education Scotland has now begun work on the review of the Scottish curriculum also known as the Curriculum Improvement Cycle (CIC). The CIC is a systematic review of the Scottish curriculum to ensure it remains up to date and relevant for children and young people. We will align our portfolio action planning to ensure that the curriculum remains fit for purpose, reflects contemporary learner needs, and can be effectively delivered in ways to ensure that all learners in Renfrewshire have high quality curricular-linked learning experiences. 7.3. Improving attainment is a regular feature in School Improvement Plans, and therefore improving our assessment and moderation practice is vital in achieving this. We will create assessment guidance and plan moderation events across all sectors which will focus on current data and intelligence. 7.4. We will continue the development of the senior phase including extending opportunities for achievement through the Scottish Credit & Qualifications Framework (SCQF) 7.5. At our recent Equity Conference, we provided an opportunity for our Senior Leaders and Officers to have the opportunity to deep dive concepts such as equity, equality and intersectionality, this will continue to support our progress towards closing the poverty related attainment gap. 7.6. Our Improving Outcomes for Young People Meetings provide a biannual opportunity for support and challenge of secondary schools to improve the attainment and achievement of young people based on robust analysis of key data. They have evolved year on year and were recognised as a strength through our recent thematic inspection. Evaluation of this session’s meetings have identified the need to include more robust dialogue with our Middle Leaders, alongside our Senior Leaders, allowing for further triangulation of monitoring and tracking processes and target setting. This will be supported by high quality professional learning to build capacity and skills in Middle Leaders to have challenging conversations at departmental and classroom level. 7.7. We will introduce and implement Target School Programme Phase 3 to raise attainment and close the poverty related attainment gap across all literacy and numeracy measures for children in SIMD 1&2. ___________________________________________________________________
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Page 16 of 17 Implications of this report 1. Financial None. 2. HR and Organisational Development None. 3. Community/Council Planning • Our Renfrewshire is thriving – looking at attainment in this way provides schools and Children’s Services with a robust way to evaluate the quality of education provision. • Tackling inequality, ensuring opportunities for all – attainment data is examined in the context of deprivation to ensure that we are working towards equity and excellence. 4. Legal None. 5. Property/Assets None. 6. Information Technology None. 7. Equality and Human Rights The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report because for example it is for noting only. If required following implementation, the actual impact of the recommendations and the mitigating actions will be reviewed and monitored, and the results of the assessment will be published on the Council’s website. 8. Health and Safety None. 9. Procurement None. 10. Risk None. 11. Privacy Impact None. 12. Climate Risk None.
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Page 17 of 17 13. Children’s Rights Article 29 (goals of education) Education must develop every child’s personality, talents and abilities to the full. It must encourage the child’s respect for human rights, as well as respect for their parents, their own and other cultures, and the environment. 14. Cosla Policy Position None. List of Background Papers None ___________________________________________________________________ Children’s Services FEF/EH/LG 14 April 2025 Author: Emma Henry, Head of Education, emma.henry@renfrewshire.gov.uk