1. Renfrewshire Economic Profile (January 2024) - Report
Renfrewshire Council · 23 January 2024
Back to Economy and Regeneration Policy Board — 23 January 2024 and its agenda
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___________________________________________________________________ To: Economy and Regeneration Policy Board On: 23 January 2024 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Chief Executive ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Renfrewshire Economic Profile (January 2024) ___________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1 This report contains the nineth edition of the Renfrewshire Economic Profile. These updates allow members to track changes in the local economy through a set of key statistical indicators. The last update on the Economic Profile was brought to the board in January 2023. The report also provides a progress update in respect of the Glasgow City Region Investment Zone and recent investments announced in Renfrewshire. ___________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1 It is recommended that the Board: (i) Notes the content of the January 2024 Renfrewshire Economic Profile Update. (ii) Notes the update on the Glasgow City Region Investment Zone (GCR IZ) and recent investments in Renfrewshire. ___________________________________________________________________ 3. Background 3.1 The purpose of the economic profile update is to describe and track local demographics and economic indicators for Renfrewshire on an annual basis. The data and analysis presented provides a context and a baseline to assess how well the Renfrewshire economy has performed over time. 3.2 In terms of the profile, as with previous versions of this reports, officers have selected Scotland and the Glasgow City Region (GCR) as the most appropriate comparators. The national average is a commonly used guide by most local authorities in terms of relative performance.
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3.3 Members comments are welcomed on the format and content of the economic profile. The profile will be shared with stakeholders and become a key source of data relating to the performance of the local economy. The profile aligns with the Renfrewshire Economic Strategy. 4. Key issues arising from the Renfrewshire Economic Profile. 4.1 In previous version of these economic profile updates to Board, officers had selected a range of the latest statistics to see progress against some of the councils’ key objectives. This has similarly been done in this year’s update. 4.2 Renfrewshire’s population continues to grow at a steady rate with this trend expected to continue until 2043. The 2022 census (superseding National Records of Scotland data) reveals that the population has grown by 5% between 2011 and 2022 to 183,800. 4.3 In line with national records, deaths decreased (4.5%), births increased (6.5%) but total deaths exceed births. Continued population growth is accounted for by inflow migration into Renfrewshire’s towns and villages. 4.4 Renfrewshire’s overall employment rate fell marginally in 2022/23 with a subsequent slight increase in unemployment and claimant count rates. At the same time there has been a moderate increase in economic inactivity rates. Female employment has decreased by 700 between July 2022 and 2023, which is comparable to the decrease in male employment (600), because of an overall decrease in the number of people who are economically active as a percentage of the overall working age population. However, both male and female employment rates are higher than the national averages. 4.5 The average weekly income of Renfrewshire’s residents has increased significantly since the last reporting period, rising from £634.80 to £715.70. A large number of people continue to be employed in retail (13,000), business administration (11,000) and manufacturing (8,000). 4.6 In strategic economic terms, the Gross Value Added (see glossary for definition) has increased by 11% since the previous reporting period and is now estimated at £4 billion1. This includes a significant increase in manufacturing output, the highest per capita in Scotland. 4.7 Sustainable Tourism continues to grow in importance in Renfrewshire’s Economy with the number employed in the sector having increased by 1,565 to 6,330 since the last reporting period. 4.8 There was a significant increase (112%) in direct tourism expenditure from £88.09m in 2021 to £187.11m in 2022. This is likely attributed to pre and post pandemic differences and underreported information in 2021. 4.9 Town Centre Vacancy Rates have marginally increased in Renfrewshire’s towns from 2022 potentially as a result of the pandemic, inflation and the cost- of-living crisis. 1 The latest GVA results are provisional until the following year when they may be revised as a result of late returns or information received in the course of the following year's inquiry
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4.10 The rate of school leavers in positive destinations (96.6%) in 2021/22 is higher than the national level and is the 4th highest in the City Region. 4.11 The supply of new housing per 10,000 population marginally decreased between 2021 and 2022. Renfrewshire’s rate is the 4th highest in the City Region and is higher than the national average. 4.12 The amount of urban vacant and derelict land in Renfrewshire has fallen by 71% since 2016. Conclusion 4.13 Overall Renfrewshire’s economy appears to be performing well when compared to regional and national rates for a number of key performance indicators including, GVA, qualifications, employment and earnings. This report also highlights the importance of the manufacturing sector to the Renfrewshire economy. 4.14 The full economic profile for Renfrewshire is included in Appendix 1 of this report. 5. Glasgow City Region Investment Zone Update (GCR IZ) 5.1 In June 2023, following an agreement between the UK Government and Scottish Governments, it was announced that both the Glasgow City Region and the North-East of Scotland had been awarded Investment Zones (IZ) status, the first such zones in Scotland. This commitment has been backed by funding, which can be used flexibly between capital investment and tax incentives for investing companies. The overall goal is to deliver economic growth, secure more investment and create more high value jobs within the Region. 5.2 In the UK Government’s Autumn Statement (Wednesday 22 November 2023), the Chancellor made a commitment to the expansion of the planned Investment Zone programme in Scotland. These changes will mean extending the timeline from five to ten years and doubling the grant to each Investment Zone from £80m to £160m. 5.3 Since the announcement, on-going activities between GCR’s Programme Management Office and Member Authorities, as well as the Scottish and UK Governments have identified three key priority sectors which will guide investment, these are: Advanced Manufacturing Health & Life Sciences Digital & Enabling Technology 5.4 The next phase is to determine which areas/projects within the Region should be eligible for IZ funding and support. There will now be an ‘Open Call’ for sites focussing on the three priority clusters identified above, aimed at private businesses across GCR which have been highlighted by the individual authorities in earlier work.
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This approach will incorporate the HM Treasury ‘Green Book’ business case development guidance. This phase will run until March 2024. Officers will now look to submit a bid for the site at Netherton Campus and wider AMIDS area and will work with other businesses/organisations in the area on their respective bids. 5.5 It is expected that a further update on the outcome of the bid process will be provided to members in summer 2024. 6. Investment updates New Innovation Hub at Rolls Royce 6.1. The University of Strathclyde has signed an agreement with Rolls-Royce to develop an innovation facility at the companies Inchinnan plant. This will enable the University to scale-up its wide-ranging collaboration activities with partners across sectors including heat, transport and power electronics. 6.2 The innovation hub will support the journey to delivering a sustainable net-zero economy by accelerating the development and deployment of technology supporting decarbonisation. New Oligonucleotide Manufacturing Centre 6.3 Following the recent announcement of a multi-million-pound fund in the Autumn Statement, the Centre for Process Innovation (CPI) has initiated a plan to construct a new facility (the Oligonucleotide Manufacturing Innovation Centre of Excellence) which will be located adjacent to the Medicines Manufacturing Innovation Centre (MMIC) at AMIDS. 6.4. The new facility will manufacture advanced medicines, focusing on oligonucleotides - a class of molecules which hold the potential to address a wide range of diseases, from cancer to Alzheimer’s. 6.5 Construction operations are expected to commence in 2024 and be completed by late 2025. __________________________________________________________________ Implications of the Report 1. Financial – No additional finance is sought. All funding is accounted for within existing Council budgets. 2. HR & Organisational Development – None. 3. Community/Council Planning – Empowering our Communities – the new Economic Profile will enable communities to have a clearer understanding of the relative performance of the Renfrewshire economy. Jobs and the Economy - the new Economic Profile will present a clearer picture of the relative performance of the Renfrewshire economy.
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4. Legal – None. 5. Property/Assets – None. 6. Information Technology – None. 7. Equality & Human Rights (a) The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report. 8. Health & Safety – None. 9. Procurement – None. 10. Risk – None. 11. Privacy Impact - None. 12. COSLA Policy Position – Not Applicable. 13. Climate Risk – Not Applicable. ___________________________________________________________________ List of Background Papers None. ___________________________________________________________________ Author: Euan Shearer; Regeneration and Place Manager Email: euan.shearer@renfrewshire.gov.uk
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Renfrewshire Economic Statistics (Nineth Edition: January 2024) 1. Population Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Population 2022 183,800 Increase of 5% from 2011. 5,436,600 Increase of 3% from 2011. 1,845,300 Increase of 3% from 2011. Population projection (at 2043, 2018 based) 185,360 Increase of 4.3% from 2018. 5,574,819 Increase of 2.5% from 2018. 1,882,792 Increase of 2.7% from 2018. Births (2022) 1,754 Increase of 6.5% from 1,647 in 2021. 46,959 Decrease of 1.7% from 47,786 in 2021. 17,324 Increase of 1.6% from 17,043 in 2021. Deaths (2022) 2,130 Decrease of 4.6% from 2,232 in 2021. 62,941 Decrease of 1.0% from 63,587 in 2021. 20,786 Decrease of 4.2% from 21,704 in 2021.
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Male Life Expectancy 2020‐ 2022 75.5 76.5 Female life expectancy has increased at a higher rate in the 2020‐2022 period. Female Life Expectancy 2020 ‐ 2022 80.72 80.1 Net Migration (2020‐21) 1,230 2nd highest level of net migration in the GCR, with an increase of 380 from 850 people in 2019‐20. 27,800 Increase from 16,900 in 2019‐20. 6,500 Decrease of 250 people from 6,750 in 2019/20. % of population that is of the working age (16‐ 64yrs) (at 2021) 64% 64% 65%
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2. Employment Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Economic Inactivity Rate (July 2022 – 2023) 23.3% 26,100 people Rate has increased 2.8% between 21/22 and 22/23 with 3,200 people moving from economically active to inactive. This is reflected in the reduced employment rates below. Renfrewshire’s increase is primarily due to ill health. Figures have started to fall again in the last quarter. 22.6% Rate has decreased 0.3% between 21/22 and 22/23. Renfrewshire has the third lowest inactivity rate in the GCR. North Lanarkshire has the highest inactivity rate at 26.8% and South Lanarkshire has the lowest at 17.3%. Employment rate ‐ aged 16‐64 (July 22 – June 23) 75.5% 88,000 people This rate has decreased by 1.9% (1,200 people) compared to the previous 2021‐ 2022 figure. 74.8% Rate has increased by 0.4% in comparison to the previous 2021 ‐2022 figure. Renfrewshire has had the second highest employment rate in the GCR after South Lanarkshire (80.8%). North Lanarkshire has the lowest (70.6%). Employment rate – Male 16‐64 (Jul 2022‐Jun 2023) 77.7% 42,000 men This rate has increased (5.2%) compared to the previous 2021‐ 2022 figure however the number of men in work actually reduced by 600. 76.9% The national employment rate for males is lower than the Renfrewshire rate. Renfrewshire has the fourth highest male employment rate in the GCR. South Lanarkshire has the highest (85.2%) and Inverclyde has the lowest (65.7%). Employment rate ‐ Female 16‐64 (Jul 2022‐June 2023) 73.7% 45,900 women Rate has decreased (8.6%) compared to the previous 2021 ‐ 2022 figure representing 700 less women in work. 72.8% The national employment rate for females is lower than the Renfrewshire rate. Renfrewshire has the 4th highest female employment rate in the GCR, with North Lanarkshire having the lowest (61.5%).
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Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Unemployment Rate 16‐64 (July 22 – June 23) 3.0% 2,700 people An increase of 0.3% from 2021 – 2022. 3.3% 0.2% decrease since 2021 – 2022. Renfrewshire has the fifth lowest unemployment rate in the GCR. Glasgow City has the highest at 4.40% Claimant Count (Nov 2023) 3.0% 3,510 people The percentage remains the same at 3% from a year ago (Nov 22) with an increase of 60 people claiming benefits. 3.0% Decrease of 0.1% compared to November 2022 figure. 3.2% Renfrewshire has the 3rd lowest proportion in the GCR. Glasgow City has the highest proportion (4.6%) whereas East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire have the joint lowest (1.8%). Occupations (Workplaces in Renfrewshire; at 2022) Renfrewshire has above average employment in: Manufacturing (8,000) Retail (13,000) Business administration (11,000) Transport and Storage (6,000) Scotland is closer to Renfrewshire in terms of the proportion for construction and health but is lower in other sectors, such as manufacturing and transport and storage. Renfrewshire has much higher proportions of employment than the GCR in: • Manufacturing • Transportation and Storage; and • Business administration Earnings (at 2023) Median weekly earnings for full‐time employees living in Renfrewshire are £715.70. Median weekly earnings for full‐time employees living in Scotland are £702.40. Renfrewshire’s Median weekly earnings are slightly lower than the GCR average of £739.30. GCR figures are skewed by outlier performances from East Dunbartonshire & East Renfrewshire which have median incomes of £822.80 & £858.70 respectively.
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Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Employment in low pay sectors (%) 2021 34.9% Decrease from 35.1% in 2020. 29.6% Increase of 0.9% from 2020. 31.4% Renfrewshire has the highest rate in the GCR. North Lanarkshire has the lowest rate at 26.9% Qualifications NVQ4 and above % of pop 16‐64yrs (Jan‐Dec 2021) 50.4% 9.9% increase from 2018. 50.0% 5.8% increase from 2018. Renfrewshire has the 4th highest rate of qualification at this level in the GCR with East Renfrewshire the highest (63.5%) and West Dunbartonshire the lowest on (36.0%). No Qualifications % of pop 16‐64yrs (Jan‐ Dec 2020) 7.1% 3.1% decrease from 2018. 7.8% 1.9% decrease from 2018. 10.8% East Renfrewshire has the lowest percentage of residents with no qualifications in the GCR. North Lanarkshire has the highest at 18.6% % of School Leavers in Positive Destinations 2021/2022 96.6 1.7% increase from 2018/2019. 95.7% 0.7% increase from 2018/2019. 96.1% Renfrewshire has the 4th highest attainment level in the GCR. East Dunbartonshire has the highest % at 98.9%, with Inverclyde the lowest 94.0% % of Households that are Workless 2022 17.9% Increase of 1.6% from 2018. 18.6% Increase of 1.5% since 2018. 22.1% North Lanarkshire has the highest % in the
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Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region GCR at 27.1%. Inverclyde has the lowest at 15%.
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3. Business Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Private Enterprises (2023) 4,630 86% are micro businesses with less than 10 employees. 12% are small businesses (10 to 49). 2% have been 50 and 250 employees. Less than 1% are classed as large businesses with more than 250 employees. This figure is for VAT and/or PAYE registered enterprises 171,350 Generally, an equivalent split to that of Renfrewshire’s with around 98% of businesses being classed as either micro or small. Renfrewshire has a higher proportion of larger sized organisations compared to areas such as East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire. Business Start Ups (per 10,000 working age population, 2021) 55.4 16.9% increase from 2020. 54.1 12.2% increase from 2020. 57.7 Renfrewshire had the 4th largest number of start‐ ups (640) with Glasgow City the most with 2,960 and Inverclyde the fewest with 160. Business Closures (per 10,000 working age population, 2021) 50.2 2.2% increase from 2020. 56.4 8.3% increase from 2020. 53.7 Renfrewshire had the 3rd lowest Business Death Rate in the GCR, with East Renfrewshire the highest (64%) and Inverclyde the lowest (40.8%).
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Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region GVA (2021) £4 billion GVA has grown by 11% between 2020 and 2021. £99.3 billion GVA has grown by 21.9% nationally from £81.5 billion reported between 2020 and 2021. £29.9 billion Glasgow City (£13.6 billion) accounts for 45.6% of the GCR. Renfrewshire accounts for the third highest amount of GVA – 13.5%. East Renfrewshire has the lowest at 1.7% Town Centre Vacancy Rates (2023) Paisley – 21% Renfrew – 16% Johnstone – 19% Erskine – 0% Braehead – 15% Linwood – 0%
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4. Manufacturing Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Number Employed in Manufacturing Sector (2022) 8,000 This figure has remained stable on the 2019 figure but is an 11% decrease from the 2018 figure (9,000). 171,000 The total number of jobs in Manufacturing in Scotland has fallen by 4% from the 2018 figure. 54,000 Glasgow City has the highest number of manufacturing jobs in the GCR (18,000) and East Renfrewshire the lowest (500). Number Employed in Manufacturing Sector per 10,000 working age population (2022) 664.5 Renfrewshire has a higher rate of employment in manufacturing than the GCR and Scottish rates. 501 458.77 Only Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire have higher rates than the Scottish average rate and Renfrewshire is the highest in the GCR. Manufacturing as % of total employment (2021) 9.3% Down slightly on the 2021 figure (9.5%). 6.8% Moray has the highest proportion of employment in manufacturing in Scotland (16.2%) and East Renfrewshire the lowest (2.4%). 6.2% Renfrewshire has the highest proportion of employment in manufacturing in the GCR (9.3%) and East Renfrewshire has the lowest (2.4%). % of Scottish Manufacturing GVA (2021) 11.2% Renfrewshire contributes a higher proportion to Scottish manufacturing GVA than its overall contribution to Scottish GVA (4.0%). 100% Renfrewshire has the highest manufacturing GVA in Scotland. 35.3% Glasgow City Region collectively accounts for around £5 billion GVA in manufacturing to the Scottish economy.
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Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Manufacturing as a % of GVA (2021) 39.6% Renfrewshire has the fourth highest manufacturing % of GVA in Scotland. 14.3% Angus has the highest manufacturing % of GVA in Scotland 42.3%. Aberdeen City has the lowest at 4.8% 16.88% West Dunbartonshire has the highest manufacturing % of GVA in the GCR 40.1% East Renfrewshire has the lowest 6.5%
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5. Tourism Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Sustainable employment in tourism (at 2023) 6,330 Increase of 1,565 employees on the figure of 2022. 235,500 Increase of 56,050 on the figure of 2022. 67,635 This accounts for 28% of Scottish sustainable tourism employment. Renfrewshire has the fourth highest level of sustainable tourism employment (11%) in the Region. Glasgow has the largest with 34,130 (58%) and East Renfrewshire the smallest with 1,920 (3%). Direct expenditure (visitors, 2022) £187.11m This is an increase of 112.4% on the 2021 figure of £88.09m n/a STEAM is commissioned at a local authority level and therefore does not provide a Scotland or city‐region wide figure n/a Visitors to Events (2023) 16,731 Visitors from outwith Renfrewshire are reported for 2 events in 2023 (Paisley Food and Drink Festival and Paisley Halloween Festival). The Spree did not take place in 2023, and numbers have not yet been recorded for Paisley Christmas Lights Switch On. ‐ ‐ All Visits to Attractions (2022) 1.03m An increase of 1.7% from 2021 figures. _ _
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6. Housing Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Supply of New Housing – Rate per 10,000 Population (2022) 45.3 There was a slight decrease in house building completions in Renfrewshire between 2021 and 2022 from 897 to 832. 43.6 There was an increase in house building in Scotland between 2021 and 2022 from 22,596 to 23,692. 36.5 Renfrewshire has the 3rd highest rate of new house building per 10,000 population in the GCR. East Renfrewshire has the highest (58.0) and East Dunbartonshire the lowest (13.4). Supply of New Housing – Rate per 10,000 Population (average 2018 to 2022) 44.0 37.5 31.5 Renfrewshire has the second highest 5‐year rate of new house building in the Glasgow City Region. South Lanarkshire has the highest (47.2) and East Dunbartonshire the lowest (21.5). % premises with available Fibre broadband connection (2022) 73.5% 59.5% increase from January 2021. 39.7% 35.4% Renfrewshire has the highest rate in the GCR. West Dunbartonshire the lowest 4.9%. 254ha Renfrewshire has experienced a 71% reduction in Urban VDL between 2016 and 2022. 9,236 ha Overall Urban VDL has reduced by 27% between 2016 and 2022. 3,184 ha This is 34% of the Scottish total. Renfrewshire has the 4th highest total area of vacant and derelict
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Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Urban Vacant and Derelict Land (Hectares; 2022) land in the GCR with North Lanarkshire the highest with 1,302 hectares and East Renfrewshire the lowest with 47 hectares. Urban Vacant and Derelict Land as % of all Scottish V&D land (2022) 2.7% 100% 34.5% Renfrewshire has the 4th highest % of Scottish V&D land in the Glasgow City Region with North Lanarkshire the highest (14.1%) and East Renfrewshire the lowest (0.5%). Derelict Land as % of total land area (2022) 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% Renfrewshire has the 4th highest % of its total area classed as urban vacant or derelict in the GCR, with Glasgow City the highest (2.9%) and South Lanarkshire the lowest (0.2%). Total Vacant & Derelict Land (Ha) in bottom 15% SIMD areas (2022) 49 ha 6.8% increase from 2021. 976.4 ha 7.7% decrease from 2021. 280.6 ha Renfrewshire has the 5th highest amount in the GCR. Glasgow City has the highest amount at 501.4, with East Renfrewshire the lowest with 0.5.
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Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Breakdown of Tenure Type (2020) Total Dwellings: 88,355 Owner Occupied – N/A Private vacant/second homes – 2% Private Rented – N/A Socially Rented – 24% Total Dwellings: 2,645,298 Owner Occupied – 58% Private vacant/second homes – 4% Private Rented –15% Socially Rented – 23% Total Dwellings: 885,555 Owner Occupied – N/A Private vacant/second homes – 2% Private Rented –N/A Socially Rented – 28% Effective Housing Land Supply % Brownfield (2021) 88% This figure is from Renfrewshire's Housing Land Audit. It represents the % of the land supply that will produce units in the next 7 years that is classed as brownfield. Glossary: Claimant Count: The Claimant Count is a measure of the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed, based on administrative data from the benefits system. Employment in low pay sectors: These include employment in the retail and hospitality sectors. Gender Employment Gap: The percentage point difference between the employment rates for men and women (aged 16-64). This is calculated by subtracting the employment rate for women from the employment rate for men. A positive employment gap indicates a higher employment rate for men compared with women, while a negative employment gap indicates a higher employment rate for women. Employment rate is the number of people in employment (aged 16-64) divided by the overall population (aged 16-64). Gross Value Added (GVA): Gross Value Added measures the value generated in the production of goods and services. It is one measure of overall economic performance. School Leavers in Positive Destinations: Includes higher education, further education, training, employment, voluntary work, Personal Skills Development and (Activity Agreements. Sustainable Tourism: Sustainable Tourism sector was identified in Scotland’s Economic Strategy as one of the growth sectors in which Scotland can build on existing comparative advantage and increase productivity and growth.
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Scotland’s tourism sector is a diverse industry, with a range of sub-sectors such as hotels, camping sites and other provision of short stay accommodation, restaurants, bars, travel agents, museums and other recreational and cultural activities. Vacant and Derelict Land: Vacant land is defined as land within a settlement that has been previously developed, without physical constraint, and which the planning authority has indicated is available for redevelopment. Derelict land is defined as land 'damaged by development, so that it is incapable of development for beneficial use without some remedial works'.