2 - Analysis of Renfrewshire’s Business Growth Sectors Report
Renfrewshire Council · 1 November 2022
Back to Economy and Regeneration Policy Board — 1 November 2022 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
Page 1
___________________________________________________________________ To: Economy and Regeneration Policy Board On: 1 November 2022 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Chief Executive ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Analysis of Renfrewshire’s Business Growth Sectors ___________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1. This report provides an update on the recommendations of the Renfrewshire Growth Sector commission conducted by EKOS Ltd. The report highlights which sectors Renfrewshire should be targeting to support the local business base and secure inward investment. This aligns to the Council’s overall Economic Strategy and the evolution of our strategic approach to business development. ___________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1 The Board is asked to:- (i) Note the findings and recommendations of the report; and (ii) Note the next stage of the commission which considers the Council’s Economic Development service and how to provide an enhanced account managed function to businesses in Renfrewshire’s key growth sectors. ___________________________________________________________________ 3. Background 3.1. Renfrewshire Council are looking at ways to grow the local economy through delivering sustainable business growth and securing economic prosperity. These principles are set out in the Renfrewshire Economic Strategy.
Page 2
This is set within the context of a fast changing and developing external environment. This has included the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic; implementation of the Brexit deal; a now clearly recognised climate emergency; wider economic influences, such as rising interest rates and inflation; the introduction of new funding opportunities including the Levelling Up Fund and some major changes to Scottish and UK Government policy. 3.2. At the start of 2022, the Council identified a need to engage specialist advice as to which sectors Renfrewshire should be targeting to support business growth and secure inward investment. This work is intended to ensure that we are targeting the key sectors that can support economic growth and that our business base is receiving the best possible support from the Council’s Economic development service moving forward. 3.3. EKOS were commissioned to carry out this work in April 2022 and had the following research aims and objectives: An economic analysis of the Renfrewshire economy highlighting current sectoral strengths and weaknesses; and Recommendations on which key growth sectors should be targeted for future investment and how best to access and support them. 3.4. The commission was informed by a combination of primary and secondary research. This included in-depth interviews with a number of key stakeholders from the public, private and third sectors including local businesses and discussions with the Council’s Economic Development and Regeneration teams. 4. Key findings 4.1. The following summaries the main findings of the EKOS commission. A full copy of the report can be found in the attached Appendix. 4.2. EKOS found that Renfrewshire should focus on investments already secured and priorities identified (for example, the AMIDS development and associated future investment). However, this should align to supply chain development for local companies, whilst also supporting new investment and prioritising of resources within a few key sectors and themes that offer growth potential for the regional economy. 4.3. Priority growth opportunities were identified in the following sectors: Manufacturing (advanced) Logistics Asset management Creative industries Tourism/hospitality/visitor economy
Page 3
4.4. A number of key themes were also identified that should be the focus for increased activity by the Economic Development service moving forward: Enterprise/ Entrepreneurship Inward investment Supply Chains Land and property The green agenda 4.5. Overall, there are a number of growth opportunities which Renfrewshire needs to capitalise on to support its economy further. These include having a stronger ‘local focus’ on current sectoral strengths in sectors such as manufacturing, engineering and life sciences and having a closer relationship to these sectors in Renfrewshire. This will involve alignment of our Economic Development service to the opportunities emerging from the City Deal activity, including AMIDS, NMIS and MMIC supply chain and employment opportunities. 4.6. EKOS also recommended that themes such as innovation and entrepreneurship are a key focus going forward. Support must be given to start- ups and local SMEs which are R&D intensive with significant scale-up potential. This could be done through the development of land and property assets with a focus on innovation and enterprise and an increased role of business incubators. This scalability potential will align Economic Development activity with wider Regeneration and Place activity, through consideration of land/property requirements for the local business base. Discussions have already commenced with UWS and other local stakeholders in terms of developing these ideas further. 4.7. There is also a requirement to map and develop local supply chains which in turn could help develop new support products, enabling a focus on longer term employability benefits emerging from City Deal activity and opportunities for the existing Renfrewshire SME base. 5. Risks and Challenges 5.1. EKOS identified a number of potential risks and challenges to the local Renfrewshire economy going forward. In summary the Council needs to adopt a proactive, rather than a reactive approach to economic and business development. Remaining static in a fast-evolving market is likely to have negative implications and consequences for the Renfrewshire economy in terms of its ability to continue to compete with other growing economies in the Glasgow City region and beyond. 5.2. The research has identified that there is a need for additional resources to focus on the developing priorities. This will be considered in the next stage of work to consider the future delivery model supporting business development.
Page 4
6 Next Steps 6.1 The recommendations of the EKOS report will feed into the second stage of the commission. This will consider the structure of Renfrewshire Council’s Economic Development service and how best to transform its approach to account management and working more closely with local businesses in key growth sectors. The recommendations from this commission will be set out in a future paper to this Board. ______________________________________________________________ Implications of the Report 1. Financial – None at present. However, while any realignment of the Council’s Economic Development will, as far as possible, within existing budgets there may be a need for additional resources to be considered to meet particular objectives. 2. HR & Organisational Development – None. 3. Community Planning – None 4. Legal – None. 5. Property/Assets – None. 6. Information Technology – None. 7. Equality & Human Rights - (a) The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report. If required following implementation, the actual impact of the recommendations and the mitigating actions will be reviewed and monitored, and the results of the assessment will be published on the Council’s website. 8. Health & Safety – None. 9. Procurement – None. 10. Risk – None. 11. Privacy Impact – None. 12. COSLA Policy Position – None. 13. Climate Change – None. ___________________________________________________________________ Author: George Hunter, Chief Economic and Regeneration Officer george.hunter@renfrewshire.gov.uk Tel: 07483947410
Page 5
Analysis of Renfrewshire Growth Sectors Final Report for Renfrewshire Council August 2022
Page 6
As part of our green office policy all EKOS reports are printed double sided on 100% sustainable paper Direct enquiries regarding this report should be submitted to: John Kelly EKOS Director Email: john.kelly@ekos.co.uk EKOS Limited, St. George’s Studios, 93-97 St. George’s Road, Glasgow, G3 6JA Reg 145099 www.ekos-consultants.co.uk Tel: 0141 353 8310
Page 7
Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................... I 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 STUDY AIMS AND OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................... 2 1.3 STUDY METHOD .................................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 REPORT STRUCTURE ............................................................................................................................... 3 2 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT .............................................................................................................. 4 2.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 POLICY OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................. 4 2.3 MAIN POLICY PRIORITIES ....................................................................................................................... 5 2.4 THE CHANGING ENVIRONMENT ........................................................................................................... 11 2.5 FUTURE IMPLICATIONS – SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... 15 3 ECONOMIC PROFILE - OVERVIEW ................................................................................................ 16 3.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 16 3.2 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................................ 16 3.3 EMPLOYMENT ...................................................................................................................................... 17 3.4 GROWTH AREAS .................................................................................................................................. 18 3.5 PRODUCTIVITY AND WAGES ................................................................................................................. 18 3.6 DEMOGRAPHICS AND POPULATION ..................................................................................................... 19 3.7 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ........................................................................................................................... 19 3.8 LABOUR MARKET AND SKILLS............................................................................................................... 20 3.9 FURTHER AND HIGHER EDUCATION ..................................................................................................... 20 3.10 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................................................... 21 4 RENFREWSHIRE’S KEY GROWTH SECTORS ............................................................................... 23 4.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 23 4.2 MANUFACTURING ................................................................................................................................ 24 4.3 CREATIVE INDUSTRIES .......................................................................................................................... 25 4.4 BUSINESS SERVICES/ ASSET MANAGEMENT ......................................................................................... 26 4.5 TOURISM AND THE VISITOR ECONOMY ................................................................................................ 26 4.6 KEY EMPLOYMENT - FOUNDATION ECONOMY .................................................................................... 27
Page 8
5 STAKEHOLDER FEEDBACK ............................................................................................................. 32 5.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 32 5.2 SECTORS AND REGIONAL PERFORMANCE ............................................................................................ 32 5.3 OPERATIONAL AND DELIVERY CHALLENGES ........................................................................................ 33 5.4 CAPITALISING ON FUTURE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES .......................................................................... 37 5.5 BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS ......................................................................................................................... 41 5.6 STAKEHOLDER CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................. 42 6 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................... 43 6.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 43 6.2 SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................... 43 6.3 SECTOR STRENGTHS AND DRIVERS OF GROWTH ................................................................................. 44 6.4 FUTURE SECTOR FOCUS ...................................................................................................................... 45 6.5 FUTURE DELIVERY OPTIONS ................................................................................................................. 45 6.6 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................ 48 6.7 ADDITIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................................................... 49 APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC PROFILE .................................................................................................................... 50 APPENDIX B: STAKEHOLDER CONSULTEES ....................................................................................................... 70 APPENDIX C: POLICY REVIEW ADDITIONAL DETAILS ......................................................................................... 71 APPENDIX D: DATA REVIEW .............................................................................................................................. 74 APPENDIX E: INVESTOR SUPPORT SPECIFICATION ............................................................................................. 87
Page 9
i Executive Summary Introduction to the Research This report presents an analysis of the growth sectors in Renfrewshire to support Renfrewshire Council (RC) identify future opportunities and provide recommendations on which industry sectors should be prioritised and targeted for future investment, and the commitment of resources required to exploit these opportunities. It is important to note that this research is not, nor should not be, an end point in and of itself. Instead, it is the first stage of a wider piece that considers how RC best align and deliver their business growth and economic development services to maximise growth potential. Background Context Crucially, the research takes place within a complex and fast changing economic and social context, which will undoubtedly have some impact on future success. This includes the new Renfrewshire Economic Strategy and the influence of the City Region Deal - not forgetting the impact of COVID-19, EU-exit, climate emergency, and wider economic influences, such as increasing interest rates, inflation, and supply chain challenges. While Renfrew is fortunate to have secured new investment through the City Region Deal and major project such as NMIS, AMIDS, the Airport and Inward Investment opportunities, they have limited dedicated resources to ensure that the local economy (business, residents, and supply chains) are able to obtain maximum benefits from these investments. Therefore, one of the key challenges is for Renfrewshire (the council, stakeholders, and partners) to remain flexible and responsive in delivery and operations, while maintaining a clear view of their future vision. Opportunities for Growth and Securing Investment There is a strong belief among stakeholders and partners, that is confirmed through the analysis of official data sources and wider intelligence, that: Renfrewshire should focus on those investments already secured and priorities already identified (for example, manufacturing, employability etc). However, this should be supported by new investment and prioritising of resources within a few sectors and themes (identified though the research) that offer growth potential for the regional economy.
Page 10
ii Priority Growth Opportunities for Renfrewshire Sectors Themes Tourism/ hospitality/ visitor economy Create and cultural industries Asset management Logistics Manufacturing Enterprise/ Entrepreneurship Inward investment Supply Chains Land and property The green agenda The key growth sector opportunities are aligned to the following thematic areas: Current sectoral strengths that require a stronger “local” focus: o (Advanced) manufacturing, engineering, life science/medical. Current “untapped” sectors where RC and partners could do more to unlock the growth opportunity: o Development of local culture/ creative offering. o Further development of tourism/ hospitality offering. Innovation and entrepreneurship: o Cross sector - R&D intensive and with scale-up potential, with HE/FE leading. Land, property, and incubation: o Development of the land and property assets with a focus on innovation and enterprise and the role of incubators. Map and develop local supply chains: o Develop new support products. Challenges and Risks While the Renfrewshire economy has demonstrated a degree of resilience in the current unpredictable and changing landscape, the regional economy is not immune to economic shocks and needs to adopt a proactive, rather than a reactive approach to economic and business development. Simply put, remaining static in a fast-evolving market is likely to have negative implications and consequences for the Renfrewshire economy in terms of its ability to continue to compete with other growing economies in the Glasgow City region and beyond.
Page 11
iii Of note and relevance to the research, it will not be possible to keep delivering current priorities plus the new growth opportunities identified (above and within the body of the report) with the current capacity and level of resources - which appear to be already well stretched. There are currently only two (general) business account managers in Business Gateway with responsibility for many thousand local companies, albeit they can access some specialist support services. In order to focus on new priorities and deliver a growth agenda while continuing to deliver existing priorities such as employability, the research has identified that there is a clear need for additional resources able to focus on the developing priorities and more effective partnership working with clear roles and responsibilities. Recommendations There is an ‘opportunity cost’ of inaction and while the research has identified the scope and scale of the potential accessible market, without the political/strategic, financial/resources and operational levers in place, then Renfrewshire will not be able to fully capitalise and exploit the identified sector and thematic opportunities. The key findings and recommendations are: Continue to deliver key priorities: Employability and supporting those furthest from the labour market into training, education, or employment, is, and should remain, a key priority for RC. Renfrewshire has a strong ‘foundation economy’ in sectors such as: health and social care, retail, and construction. While not necessarily ‘growth sectors’ they are key employers and represent a significant proportion of the employment base and are important anchors for the Renfrewshire economy. Utilise emerging data and economic intelligence to exploit opportunities - the data and intelligence identifies that there is an accessible opportunity to deliver inclusive and sustainable growth for Renfrewshire aligned to the following sectors:
Page 12
iv Renfrewshire Growth Sector Opportunities and Benefits Manufacturing Creative Industries High value jobs Attract Inward investment Image – Renfrewshire as centre of excellence and aligned to R&D Supply chain development Mix of jobs types Attract Inward investment Image – building on UK City of Culture bid Enterprise/ business starts Attract visitor spend Business Services/ Asset Management/ Logistics Hospitality, Tourism, and the Visitor Economy Entry level jobs External contracts – national trade Business expansions Supply chain development Support inclusion agendas Positive impact on image and perception Attract external spend into area Entry level and high value jobs Supply chain opportunities Green Agenda Commit resources and secure buy-in from stakeholder and partners to unlock the identified opportunities – The business development service is currently under resourced to work with the company base and deliver the against these sector priorities. If achieving sector growth is a priority for RC then this will require the (sustained) commitment of people and financial resources and development of short, medium, and long terms actions and objectives. Realignment of operational and delivery structures - identifying the growth opportunities and committing resources is only part of the solution, RC also need to have the right delivery structures in place and linkages to delivery partners – “form follows function”. The council is currently working with external specialist support to review the options to reposition the economic/business development service to ensure it is best placed and aligned to meet the needs/demands of the growth sector base. The research highlighted a range of potential delivery options with the preferred approach being a bespoke solution that includes a hybrid of company specific account management and an investor support framework. The detailed approach will be tested and confirmed through further research.
Page 13
v Supplementary Recommendations In addition to the core recommendations to target sector growth opportunities and restructure delivery and operational models, other recommendations include: Supply chain development – undertake an initial mapping exercise to determine opportunity in both supply and demand sides of market. Undertake further engagement to agree the Renfrewshire approach towards green jobs for the future (ELP). Commit resources and funding to develop a company database and management system. If successful, consider the potential opportunities generate by Freeport status and how this will align with the identified growth sector opportunities. Develop a strategic approach to green jobs and agree with Partners. Through ELP, develop operational partnerships to deliver the agreed preferred option – clear roles and responsibilities and access to resources for all Partners. Consider and prepare a Shared Prosperity Fund (and future opportunities) bid for preferred option, if considered appropriate – there is a need for some “stock projects”.
Page 14
1 1 Introduction This report presents an analysis of the growth sectors in Renfrewshire to support Renfrewshire Council (RC) to identify current sectoral strengths and weaknesses and provide recommendations on which key sectors should be targeted for future investment, and how best to access and support them. The research was commissioned by Renfrewshire Council and was completed between April and July 2022. 1.1 Context Renfrewshire’s new Economic Strategy 2020-2030 has a focus on securing growth and delivering prosperity for the local economy. “Our mission is to strengthen and grow the Renfrewshire economy in ways which people, businesses and places can contribute to and benefit from that growth.” As a key priority, RC have commissioned EKOS Ltd to review a range of economic data and intelligence to help inform their approach to delivering sustainable growth for the indigenous company base and securing new inward investment. RC want to better understand which industry sectors provide the best opportunity to help deliver this growth. Therefore, it is important to consider sectors where the region already has an established cluster and acknowledged competitive advantages (e.g., advanced manufacturing), but also sectors that have latent potential to grow but are being underplayed and/or overlooked. The research will also provide critical analysis that will develop an understanding of what type of strategies and support the Council needs to provide to help support growth sectors more efficiently and effectively. Ultimately, RC wants to provide value to help the identified key sectors grow bigger, faster, and better.
Page 15
2 It is important to note that this research is not an end point in and of itself. Rather, it is the first stage in a wider piece that considers how RC best align their business growth and economic development services. Therefore, the outputs and recommendations will directly feed into the second stage which is currently underway (being led by Business Pointer) to determine a new operational structure that will support RC to transform its approach to account management and working with the business base – with a view to help capitalise on, and deliver, the sectoral growth opportunities identified. Crucially, the research takes place within a complex and fast changing economic and social context, not least being the development of a new Renfrewshire Economic Strategy and the influence of the City Region Deal - not forgetting the impact of COVID-19, Brexit, climate emergency, changes in Scottish Enterprise and wider economic influences. 1.2 Study Aims and Objectives The overarching aims of the research are to produce a detailed report on Renfrewshire’s growth sectors - the following reporting outputs were noted within the Invitation to Quote (ITQ): An economic analysis of Renfrewshire’s current economy highlighting its current sectoral strengths and weaknesses; Recommendations on which key growth sectors should be targeted for future investment and how best to access and support them. RC are particularly keen to understand the ‘hidden potential’ on sectoral growth opportunities e.g., ones that may not be currently dominant in the region but exhibit significant ‘nuanced’ growth potential; and An analysis of the current barriers to growth in Renfrewshire. The brief also requires a presentation to Renfrewshire Council Senior Management Team/Elected Members on report findings and recommendations. 1.3 Study Method The study included a mix of primary and secondary research: Review and analysis of current relevant policy and strategic priorities; Development of an economic baseline and analysis; Interviews with key stakeholders from the public, private and third sectors; and Detailed discussions with RC economic development team.
Page 16
3 1.4 Report Structure The remainder of this report is structured as follows: Chapter 2: External Environment; Chapter 3: Economic Profile; Chapter 4: Renfrewshire’s Key Growth Sectors; Chapter 5: Stakeholder Feedback; Chapter 6: Conclusions and Recommendations; and Technical Appendices.
Page 17
4 2 External Environment 2.1 Introduction This Chapter sets out a brief review of the current national, regional, and local economic policy and strategy priorities. We have also considered the wider external environment with a view to drawing out some lessons for the future operations and delivery. It focuses not on repeating the key policy priorities but in understanding their implications for this research. 2.2 Policy Overview The analysis of the growth sector opportunities that RC could exploit/capitalise on must be considered within the context of the current economic policy direction and priorities. We have reviewed relevant national, regional, and local policy, to identifying the cross-cutting themes and main policy drivers as they relate to the external and operational environment. The main objectives and priorities have been summarised and we have considered the potential implications within a Renfrewshire context. UK and Scottish Level UK Levelling Up White Paper Scottish Government National Performance Framework Scotland's National Strategy for Economic Transformation Scottish Government Economic Inclusion Plans Infrastructure Investment Plan Planning Policy and NPP4 Just Transition - A Fairer, Greener Scotland National Digital Strategy Regional Level Glasgow City Region Economic Strategy Local Level Renfrewshire Economic Strategy Renfrewshire Economic Recovery Plan Cross Cutting Policy Themes Delivering inclusive growth, wellbeing, and Fair Work Addressing the climate emergency and securing a ‘just transition’ Innovation and digital Place-making, sustainability, and Community Wealth Building
Page 18
5 In addition, there are a range of partner strategies such as Scottish Enterprise (SE) and Skills Development Scotland (SDS) which we have not included above but will be important as the research moves to the next phase and considers new operational and delivery structures. 2.3 Main Policy Priorities 2.3.1 Inclusive Growth and Wellbeing It is now recognised by Government that a narrow focus on usual growth measures – GDP, productivity, employment figures – and an over-estimation of the reality of ‘trickle-down’ economic theory, have contributed to the creation of a deeply unbalanced economy. The Scottish Government now aims to achieve inclusive economic growth in Scotland. This approach adopts a broader view of growth that combines increased prosperity with greater equality, creates opportunities for all Scotland’s people and places, and distributes the benefits of increased prosperity fairly. Indeed, the vision of the recently published Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation is to create a wellbeing economy which is “thriving across economic, social and environmental dimensions” and for “a country where economic power and opportunity is distributed fairly.” Since inclusive growth principles were elaborated in the Scottish Economic Strategy (2015), the Scottish Government has identified a broad platform of initiatives, ranging across Fair Work, enterprise and skills reform, early years expansion, initiatives to narrow the attainment gap and promote fair access to higher education, and Fair Start Scotland. Fair Work First is the Scottish Government’s policy for driving good quality and fair work in Scotland which “delivers clear benefits for individuals alongside higher productivity, performance and innovation for employers.” Through this approach, the Scottish Government, and its public sector partners, including LAs now require suppliers to describe how they are committed to adopting Fair Work First including: appropriate channels for effective voice, such as trade union recognition; investment in workforce development; no inappropriate use of zero hours contracts; action to tackle the gender pay gap and create a more diverse and inclusive workplace; providing fair pay for workers (e.g. payment of the real Living Wage); offer flexible and family friendly working practices for all workers; and oppose the use of fire and rehire practices.
Page 19
6 Potential Implications for Renfrewshire An inclusive economic growth approach requires the adoption of a broader range of metrics to measure economic growth (e.g. Fair Work principles, contribution to reduction in carbon emissions). Some sectors are better placed to contribute to some of these alternative metrics whilst some sectors may require support. For example, if a growth opportunity was identified in service-based sectors, these roles tend to be lower paid and based on less secure contracts (e.g. use of zero hour contracts). Therefore, any support must consider how the specific sector and opportunity can contribute to the wider economic, social and environmental elements of growth. There is a need develop a Renfrewshire-specific monitoring and reporting framework with relevant metrics. Access to opportunities is another important aspect of inclusive growth. A narrow focus on high value jobs and sectors, such as advanced manufacturing and digital, may exclude opportunities for local residents to access employment. Local supply chain development can play an important role in maximising the local benefits of inward investment to ensure quality, sustainable and diverse employment opportunities for all of Renfrewshire’s people and places. 2.3.2 Addressing Climate Emergency and Securing a ‘Just Transition’ In 2019, both the Scottish Government and some local authorities, including RC, declared a climate emergency. This led to the Scottish Government increasing targets for emissions reductions to net zero emissions by 2045 with a target set by RC to make Renfrewshire carbon neutral by 2030. The Second Scottish Adaptation Programme (2019) implementing the Climate Change Scotland Act (2019) aims to ensure that communities, infrastructure and nature environments are resilient to climate change impacts. An important concept is ‘just transition’ with emphasis on environmentally and socially sustainable jobs, low carbon investment and social consensus. The Transition Commission, charged with investigating how to maximise economic and social opportunities on the way to net zero, published Advice on a Green Recovery (2020) in light of COVID-19. It recognises that some sectors and regions are particularly hard hit and advised supporting the economy through expanding climate-friendly habitats, i.e., supporting tree planting, longer term support for the Forestry Grant Scheme and maximising supply chain opportunities from tree planting and peatland restoration.
Page 20
7 In July 2020, the Climate Emergency Response Group published a suite of measures for Scotland’s Green Recovery: areas where the Scottish Government should invest public money and incentivise private investment to deliver a fairer, greener, and more resilient Scotland. The proposals include: a jobs creation programme; and green enterprise support, including support for local food systems, community based public transport especially in rural areas and community work hubs supporting increased home and remote working. In the Update to the Climate Change Plan, the largest greenhouse gas emitting sectors, such as transport and industry, are identified as well as expected reductions by 2032 – these are detailed in Table 2.1: Table 2.1: Sectors by proportion of Scotland’s total greenhouse gas emissions (2018) Sector % of Scotland’s total greenhouse gas emissions (2018) Expected reduction (%) in greenhouse gas emissions by 2032 Transport 36% -41% Industry 28% -43% Buildings 23% -68% Agriculture 18% -24% Electricity 5% -376% Waste 4% -56% Potential Implications for Renfrewshire There are two key points to consider here, the first is that RC needs to reflect on how they can best support businesses to become more sustainable as we aspire to become carbon neutral (net zero) by 2045. Secondly, in doing so how can RC exploit the economic opportunities related to the net zero agenda to support and create new green businesses and jobs that are accessible for local people. For example, the manufacture, installation, and maintenance of heat pumps will be a key growth area for businesses working in the plumbing, heating, and air conditioning subsector (construction and manufacturing) as we transition away from traditional fossil fuel heating systems. Renfrewshire already has a strong cluster and a large business base working in these sectors, and there is also the research expertise being developed at NMIS, where energy transition is a key theme within the research agenda. This may be an area the Council can exploit in collaboration with industry and Further/Higher Education providers to develop a business support and skills pathway.
Page 21
8 2.3.3 Innovation and Digital In 2017, Scotland’s Innovation Action Plan noted that “a strong innovation performance will be critical to improving Scotland’s long-term productivity growth and to enabling inclusive growth and the delivery of higher living standards for the people of Scotland”. Manufacturing is a key feature of the innovation plan with relevant actions including provisional plans for NMIS (now operational in Renfrewshire) and “implementation of the Manufacturing Action Plan including work to put Scotland at the forefront of the circular economy through innovation in product design and manufacturing, supply chains and customer relations; work to support energy efficiency and decarbonisation including low carbon technology demonstrator projects; investment in SMART manufacturing and encouraging and supporting more manufacturing businesses to invest in product, process, service and workplace innovation.” With innovation being driven by advances in digital and data technology, digital transformation presents a fundamental shift in the economy as it opens up new possibilities (e.g. 5G allowing a systems approach in a factory). This has been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic which has required some businesses to adopt innovative solutions to continue/adapt the delivery of products and services. It is a cross-cutting policy driver which will also be required to tackle the climate emergency and make the transition to Net Zero. The national digital strategy, ‘A Changing Nation: How Scotland will Thrive in a Digital World’, notes the progress of sectors that are “already moving to embrace wider adoption of data driven innovation” – these include energy, tourism, fintech, health and care, and the public sector. There is some crossover with the nine key opportunity areas identified in SDI’s Inward Investment Plan: energy transition, decarbonisation of transport; software and IT; digital financial services; digital business services; space; healthtech; transformation of chemical industries; food and drink innovation. The GCR Economic Strategy notes that the region contributes to all nine areas. Potential Implications for Renfrewshire Key priorities at a national level for innovation and digital are well aligned to potential growth opportunities for Renfrewshire with significant investment into innovation within these sectors (health and social care, green jobs, manufacturing). For example, manufacturing is highlighted as an innovative and high growth sector within the national strategies with the potential of addressing challenges around productivity to boost competitiveness and attract inward investment.
Page 22
9 With a strong manufacturing sector in Renfrewshire and the development of the national Advanced Manufacturing Innovation District Scotland (AMIDS), the region is viewed as a strategically significant national site for the sector, GCR and innovation more generally. This can be seen in NMIS which aims to sector adopt new manufacturing techniques1 (e.g. Digital Factory 2050 which promotes Industry 4.0) and provide leadership, build collaborations and enhance capability to influence adaptation and exploit manufacturing opportunities to boost Scotland’s transition to a net-zero emissions economy by 2045. With health and care identified as a growth sector in the Renfrewshire Economic Strategy, the development of the Medicines Manufacturing Innovation Centre (MMIC) as well as close proximity to the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital which has a research and innovation focus, there is scope to explore further the opportunities presented by data driven innovation in health and social care sector (i.e. digital health). Also, action could be targeted at increasing digital uptake and transformation in Renfrewshire’s other key sectors including transport and logistics, and construction. 2.3.4 Place-making, Sustainability and Community Wealth Building Place-making is the “process of creating good quality places…[which] capitalises on what is good in a place, understands the local community’s needs and aspirations, recognises the potentials, then uses the principles of urban design to enhance the people’s experience in the spaces or places created.” In 2019, the Scottish Government and COSLA adopted the Place Principle that requests “all those responsible for providing services and looking after assets in a place need to work and plan together, and with local communities, to improve the lives of people, support inclusive and sustainable economic growth and create more successful places”. There is a commitment to taking “a collaborative, place-based approach with a shared purpose to support a clear way forward for all services, assets and investments which will maximise the impact of their combined resources”. 1 For example, the adoption and application of automation, light-weighting, digital manufacturing technology and supply chain development.
Page 23
10 In a Scottish context, there are six interconnected themes related to place-making. One of these themes is the concept of 20-minute neighbourhoods where “people of all ages and abilities can access the vast majority of the facilities and services they need daily within a walk of around 20 minutes.” This contributes to a range of strategic priorities including active travel, health and wellbeing as well as creating positive identify and building a sense of community and social capital for a place. Another relevant theme is place-based investment which is specifically about viewing investment from a place perspective. The aim of this holistic approach is to encourage long-term collaboration, good decision-making and best use of assets and resources to ensure various investments work for all people within a place. For example, Community Wealth Building is a people-centred approach to local economic development, which redirects wealth back into the local economy, and places control and benefits into the hands of local people. Understanding places, how they operate and where capacity, assets and opportunities lie, is an important element in supporting community wealth building – this includes major sectors in a place which can have “roles as anchor institutions through their spending, investment, employment and use of physical assets.” The Scottish Government is currently exploring the potential of community wealth building as an approach to inclusive economic growth – there is also (relatively limited) reference to community wealth building in Renfrewshire’s Economic Strategy and Economic Recovery Plan. Potential Implications for Renfrewshire Historically, Renfrewshire has had a somewhat transient labour market – with many people leaving the area to access employment (out-migration), whist at the same time there are high numbers of people from the wider city-region that travel to Renfrewshire to access jobs (in- migration). While the longer-term effects and shake out from the COVID-19 pandemic will not be known for some time, there is at least anecdotal evidence that working patterns have changed significantly – with many people now working (in part) from home and are seeking a better work-life balance, including less time spent commuting. Therefore, there is a potential opportunity for RC to focus on industry sectors that will appeal and be accessible to local people - attracting and retaining working residents. This could have a positive knock-on effect within the local towns and communities – with more people remaining in the region this could create new daytime economy opportunities and foster a sense of vibrancy within the communities.
Page 24
11 2.4 The Changing Environment In addition to overarching policy, this Chapter seeks to expand on the key external factors that are impacting on the current environment and consider the implication for Renfrewshire. These are discussed in more detail below. 2.4.1 COVID–19 pandemic2 While the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions will remain uncertain for some time, there is now a need to take stock of the impact of the last two years on the economy and consider how businesses can be best supported post-pandemic. Source: Financial Times ‘8 June’ edition 2.4.2 Brexit and International Trade The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, global recession and supply chain disruption, appear to have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in the past two years3, Table 2.2. 2 Scottish Parliament Information Centre - Timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland 3 Note: data is not available below this level.
Page 25
12 Table 2.2: UK exports (£m) EU Exports 2018 2019 2020 2021 United Kingdom 170,003 168,486 142,623 152,453 England 122,882 123,654 104,489 110,758 Wales 10,534 10,760 7,968 9,091 Scotland 17,255 16,741 13,751 14,528 NI 5,392 5,397 4,910 4,912 Non-EU Exports United Kingdom 169,503 171,755 147,997 157,441 England 126,129 124,246 107,950 115,888 Wales 6,656 7,000 5,567 6,122 Scotland 14,978 17,016 12,830 12,481 NI 3,503 3,741 2,959 2,890 Source: UK Regional Trade in Goods Statistics Quarter 4, 2021 In 2021, the data shows a 9% drop in total UK exports from 2018 and a greater -16% drop in Scotland. However, the volatility is highlighted if we consider exports by goods type and we see a significant decrease in food and live animals (-20%) and in misc. manufacturing goods (-35%), Table 2.3. Table 2.3: Scotland Exports £m) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Food and Live Animals 1,082 1,166 1,080 1,099 Beverages and Tobacco 1,317 1,392 1,225 1,392 Crude Materials 343 288 228 361 Mineral Fuels 9,298 9,139 6,386 6,246 Animal and Vegetable Oils 19 23 23 29 Chemicals 1,390 1,274 1,342 1,530 Manufactured Goods 828 757 712 842 Machinery and Transport 1,978 1,880 2,057 2,297 Miscellaneous Manufactures 964 793 683 733 Other commodities (nes 35 29 15 - Source: UK Regional Trade in Goods Statistics Quarter 4, 2021 It is clear that it may take some time for international trade to settle down and that some sectors will be hit harder than others - at least in the short term, this will likely remain a major issue for some businesses. The largest reductions were in fuels and manufacturing which, as borne out in the data below, has some resonance in Renfrewshire.
Page 26
13 2.4.3 UK Shared Prosperity Fund Following Brexit, the £2.6bn Shared Prosperity Fund (SPF) is the UK Government’s replacement for European Structural and Investment Funds. In Scotland, the SPF is delivered through the City and Regional Growth Deal partnerships. Total funding allocation for GCR is £73.9m within which Renfrewshire is allocated £6.3m4 and is categorised as Priority Category 1 – places with highest levels of identified need. One of the investment priorities is supporting local business with relevant objectives being: Creating jobs and boosting community cohesion, through investments that build on existing industries and institutions, and range from support for starting businesses to visible improvements to local retail, hospitality and leisure sector facilities; Promoting networking and collaboration, through interventions that bring together businesses and partners within and across sectors to share knowledge, expertise and resources, and stimulate innovation and growth; and Increasing private sector investment in growth-enhancing activities, through targeted support for small and medium-sized businesses to undertake new-to-firm innovation, adopt productivity-enhancing, energy efficient and low carbon technologies and techniques, and start or grow their exports. 2.4.4 Other External Changes There are other external factors which presenting challenges to the economy, these include: Ukraine conflict: o It is already impacting on supply chains, energy costs and availability and cost of some raw materials. Rising inflation and interest rates: o The annual headline rate of inflation is currently 9.1%5 although the Bank of England has estimated that the country is heading for a rate of above 10% in the autumn. 4 Figures include funding allocation for Multiply. 5 . This is the highest rate of inflation since 1982: Bank of England
Page 27
14 o On 5 May, the Bank of England raised interest rates to 1.25% but could (or is likely to) go higher raising the cost of finance for everyone. Rising supplier inputs costs: o All of these external factors are having a direct impact on the cost of raw materials and wages which will undoubtedly put more pressure on business to absorb rising costs. o There are also constraints on many international supply chains. The cost of living crisis: o Although this will directly impact consumers, it will have a knock-on impact in terms of reducing demand for some goods and services. o In addition, the rising costs of energy are yet another burden for business to address. o Impact on wage increases. Potential Implications for Renfrewshire The implications of these factors underscore the uncertain future and the challenges in arriving at robust conclusions about a regional economic future. This uncertainty is likely to impact mostly on the existing business base through for example: Decreasing demand for goods and services; Additional financial pressures on business; Increasing costs of capital; Disruptive supply chains; and Labour market costs and availability. This could result in a need to focus economic development resources not on a growth mode but one of survival. However, only time will tell.
Page 28
15 2.5 Future Implications – Summary The overarching national economic policy goal over recent years has been “economic growth” generally based on more and higher paid jobs and increased productivity as measured by GVA. While this thread runs through all economic and related policies and strategies, there has been a strong move towards the balanced growth of the Scottish economy, evident in the policies examined. In short, economic growth must go hand in hand with: environmental/sustainable development/climate change; and social values: the wellbeing economy, social inclusion, fair work, the place principle and greater community involvement in decision making. A main conclusion must be that we are in a period of extreme volatility and uncertainty due to a wide range of external factors. While business does not like uncertainty, some still manage to thrive while others are primarily in survival mode – so different demands are likely to exist. This highlights the ongoing instability and challenges facing SMEs and will have an obvious impact on some in terms of growth appetite. It is therefore not possible to offer a longer-term market view with any degree of certainty which suggests that it may be more appropriate (in the short term) to focus on what we already have secured.
Page 29
16 3 Economic Profile - Overview 3.1 Introduction This chapter sets out a brief economic overview of Renfrewshire, focusing on the business base and employment patterns. It also summarises the key pointers from the review that feed into the conclusions and recommendations. The detailed economic profile is presented at Appendix A. 3.2 Economic Overview Renfrewshire has quite a mixed economy, with traditionally strong sectors like manufacturing, health, retail, and construction, as well as growing sectors such as the creative industries, and business support services. 3.2.1 Business Base Business Characteristics In 2021, there were approximately 4,720 businesses in Renfrewshire. In line with the rest of the Glasgow City Region (GCR) and Scotland, most of these businesses are classified as micro businesses, meaning they have 0-9 employees (87%); Approximately two-thirds of businesses in Renfrewshire have an annual turnover under £200,000, with a profile at the lower end of the turnover size bands which is very similar to the wider GCR; and According to Business Insider, fourteen of Renfrewshire’s businesses feature in Scotland’s top 500 largest companies, including Vascutek, Peak Scientific Instruments, and Professional Beauty Systems working out of Inchinnan Business Park. Business Base Change Renfrewshire has seen growth in 11 of the 18 broad industrial sectors over the five years between 2017-2021. The three top growth sectors were: o Transport & storage (+26%) o Business administration & support services (+12%) o Accommodation & food services – hospitality (+11%); and
Page 30
17 Digging down beneath the broad level sector data, we can see that growth has largely been driven by specific sub sector activities, most notably from ‘unlicensed carriers’ (+88%), reflecting the general rise in couriers servicing online shopping customers, which alongside growth in road transported freight (+17%), has underpinned the growth within the transportation and storage sector. 3.3 Employment Following two years of consistent growth, employment in Renfrewshire peaked in 2018, with approximately 87,000 people in employment. Employment then decreased -3% between 2018 and 2020; and With approximately 15,700 people working in the public sector in 2019, Renfrewshire has a smaller public sector employment base than both the wider GCR and Scotland - having a larger private sector is beneficial to the Council, as it will be able to support both direct and supply chain growth in the private sector, compared to only supporting supply chain growth in the public sector. Employment Change The health sector, covering human health-related work in places like hospitals, residential care, and non-residential social work and care, is the largest employer in Renfrewshire, with approximately 12,000 residents employed in this sector in 2020; there have been several growth areas between 2016 and 2020, with particularly strong employment growth in areas including: o Information & Communication (100%) o Business Administration & Support Services (38%) o Mining, Quarrying & Utilities (25%); and Interestingly, sectors in which there has been growth within the business base do not necessarily translate to employment growth - this is most notable in the construction sector and may indicate that larger businesses have either closed or relocated and are then being replaced by micro and small businesses, which provide fewer employment opportunities.
Page 31
18 3.4 Growth Areas Overview Turning to more specific areas of growth, there are several areas, such as ‘business services’ - General Cleaning of Buildings, Renting and Leasing of Cars and Light Motor Vehicles, Computer Consultancy, Building Support Service Activities, and Medical Nursing Home Activities, in which Renfrewshire’s growth is substantially larger than either the GCR or Scotland; Four of the 10 sectors that have experienced the largest absolute growth between 2016- 2020 were also ranked within the top 10 sectors for absolute employment in Renfrewshire: o General cleaning of buildings (5,000) o Computer consultancy activities (1,750) o Other residential care activities (2,000) o Manufacturing of air and spacecraft and related machinery (1,500). Employment Forecast Within Renfrewshire, levels of employment are forecast to grow +3.3% between 2021 and 2024, with growth continuing between 2024 and 2031, albeit at a slower pace with 1.2% growth predicted; Through to 2031, the data suggests that Health and Social Care will remain an important source of employment within Renfrewshire. Beyond that, the SDS data suggest that the most significant growth will come from Construction and Financial and Business Services. 3.5 Productivity and Wages Economic Output Renfrewshire’s GVA per head has trended upwards, increasing by approximately £9,886 between 2015 (£43,638) and 2019 (£52,381); From a sectoral perspective, the Primary Industries, Manufacturing, and Transport and Storage had the highest output per employee; and By far, the largest gain in productivity has occurred in the Primary Industries which increased £81,159 (+147%) between 2015 and 2019, followed by wholesale which increased £23,600 (71%), and Accommodation and Food which increased £14,387 (+90%).
Page 32
19 Median Wages Between 2017 and 2021, median wages at both resident and workplace level have risen by approximately £100 (15%). However, while the increase in resident wages has been gradual, workplace wages remained rather stagnant Renfrewshire’s average weekly workplace wage in 2021 was ranked in the bottom half (5/8) of the GCR local authorities, and below the national average of £622. The highest average workplace wages in the GCR can be found in: o Inverclyde = £685 o Glasgow City = 642 o East Renfrewshire = £629 3.6 Demographics and Population In 2020, the total population of Renfrewshire was approximately 175,930. Since 2016, Renfrewshire’s population growth has been equivalent with the GCR, but slightly different to the national average; and As with Scotland and the GCR, Renfrewshire has experienced its most significant growth (5%) in its pensionable adult population, which is largely driving its overall population growth. Population Projections Looking forward up to 2043, Renfrewshire’s population is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate (+4%) than both the GCR (3%) and Scotland (3%); and While there will be net growth, the expectation is that there will be substantial contraction in the number of children (-9%) and a small contraction of the working age population (- 2%) albeit the forecast reduction in working aged people is not as severe as that forecast for the regional and national levels. 3.7 Economic Activity Economic activity captures the proportion of the working age activity currently economically active or capable of being active, with a high rate of activity meaning that a high proportion of people are working or are available to work. Following a slight decline, economic activity increased approximately 1% between 2019 and 2020 to a peak of 80.8%. Economic activity dropped by 3% between 2020 and 2021; and
Page 33
20 While Renfrewshire has experienced a substantial increase in the number of its residents classified as inactive, the area has also experienced a 36 % rise in the numbers of economically inactive individuals who want a job, compared to -35% in the GCR and -22% in Scotland – indicating a potential supply of labour. 3.8 Labour Market and Skills The local skills base is an important determining factor when thinking about future areas for growth in Renfrewshire - Renfrewshire’s skills base is largely equivalent with the national picture; Most of Renfrewshire’s workforce have at least NVQ 1 and 2 qualifications, equivalent to National 4 and 5 qualifications. Similarly, most Renfrewshire adults also have Higher, Advanced Higher and Higher National Certificate qualifications, with 64% possessing an NVQ 3 and Compared to the GCR, Renfrewshire has a higher proportion of adults with Higher National Diplomas and Ordinary Degrees, with the number of NVQ 4 qualifications increasing 8% between 201 and 2021. 3.9 Further and Higher Education In Renfrewshire, the main institutions in this space are West College Scotland, the University of Western Scotland, and the University of Strathclyde – given the University’s role in AIMDS, where it is the lead/anchor institution for the National Manufacturing Institution for Scotland, Advanced Forming Research Centre, and the Light Weighting Centre. Further Education Enrolments at West College Scotland fell to their lowest level in 5 years into the 2020/21 academic year - there were approximately 3,000 fewer enrolments in in 2020/21 compared to 2019/20, which was likely to due to the pandemic; and The ten most common courses by registration appear to reflect the make-up of Renfrewshire’s business and employment base, indicating that there is awareness of the types of opportunities that are available locally. For instance, the largest industry for employment is Health, covering employment in a health, residential, and social care settings, and in 2020/21, around 6,452 individuals enrolled in health, care, and social work courses.
Page 34
21 Higher Education Within the GCR, the University of Strathclyde is particularly well placed to deliver a pipeline of skilled graduates, with engineering and technology enrolments accounting for approximately 21% of its 24,450 enrolments in 2021/21; and Beyond that, the University of the West of Scotland and Glasgow Caledonian registered 25% and 35% of their respective enrolments in subjects allied to medicine in 2021 – equating to roughly 11,000 students. 3.10 Conclusions The main conclusions from the economic analysis are highlighted below. Renfrewshire’s economy is mixed with strong activity across various sectors; While there has been growth in the number of registered businesses, the number of people in employment has fallen: o Peak employment occurred in 2018, so this trend pre-dates the pandemic; There has been strong business growth in the manufacturing industry, alongside business and employment growth in the creative industries and the services sector: o These are areas that are likely to further benefit from developments like AMIDS, and the broader pivot towards the green economy; The picture for Renfrewshire’s foundation sectors has been mixed: o Health and social care, which is the largest sector based on employment, has remained static and will remain important as older age population grows o Retail has remained static at a high level, although there has been strong growth in the trade of new and used motor vehicles, alongside a sharp decline in several wholesale subsectors o Construction has experienced a significant decrease in the number of registered employees, although there has been slight growth in the number of registered businesses; Renfrewshire’s productivity has been increasing over time, with productivity gains across numerous sectors, but most significantly, in primary industries and manufacturing; The number of Renfrewshire residents classified as economically active dropped by approximately 3% between 2020-21:
Page 35
22 o However, unlike the GCR and Scotland, many of the new economically inactive residents want to re-enter the labour market; and FE and HE institutions in Renfrewshire and the wider GCR run several courses that match key traditional and growth sectors in the local economy.
Page 36
23 4 Renfrewshire’s Key Growth Sectors 4.1 Introduction This Chapter provides further detail of Renfrewshire’s key growth sectors, the short-medium term opportunities and the challenges that need to be addressed to ensure the potential opportunities are not restricted. We have arranged these sectors into the following broad groupings: Sectors that offer greatest opportunity for growth (we have taken a fairly loose sense of growth – jobs and output but this needs to be fully refined/defined); Sectors that represent a sizable proportion of business and/or employment base – the focus is partly on sustaining activity and employment levels within these sectors as well as achieving growth; and Sectors that while still small scale / niche / less mature, nonetheless present an interesting and accessible opportunity for growth. Overall, we can define local sectors into three groups: Foundation sectors (health and social care, construction, hospitality, retail) – the major employers Growth sectors as defined by Scot Gov (financial, creative, energy, life science, advanced manufacturing) Local niche/ specialist/ growth sectors with potential for scalability in Renfrewshire which could include for example: logistics, asset management, tourism/hospitality However, it is important to reflect on the current economic uncertainty and adopt a flexible approach that allows resources to be moved to where they can have maximum impact at the time. The sectors highlighted below are by-in-large well established and acknowledged (within policy/strategy and through the consultations) as providing a strong base for supporting economic activity and growth. It should be recognised that it is not an either-or approach; focus is required across all three groups as well as the priority “themes” highlighted later in the report.
Page 37
24 4.2 Manufacturing Thanks to Inchinnan and Westway Industrial Estates, Renfrewshire already possess an established global manufacturing base, with companies like Boeing, Rolls Royce, and Thermo Fisher Scientific already operating in the area. Alongside the Netherton Campus and Glasgow Airport, Inchinnan and Westway are part of the AMIDS, including NMIS and MMIC, which are due to open in 2022. Through AMIDS, there is clear potential to continue to attract high-value manufacturers to Renfrewshire. Indeed, there will be opportunities to directly create jobs in manufacturing, building on trends like growth in the manufacturing of air/ spacecraft and related machinery, which went from approximately 1000 employees in 2016 to 1500 employees in 2020. Moreover, there will also be opportunities to grow businesses in the supply chain which support advanced manufacturing. For example, compared to 2017, in 2021, there were: Ten additional machining businesses (+40% increase) Ten additional road-based freight businesses (+17% increase) Five additional engineering-related scientific and technical consulting companies (+11%) Continuing to support Renfrewshire’s already strong manufacturing sector will deliver productive, high-value-added jobs that attract inward investment and allow the area to implement new technologies, like the AMIDS heat network, which will place Renfrewshire at the forefront of advanced green manufacturing. Opportunities Challenges High value jobs Inward investment Image Supply chains Labour and skills (local) Competition from other locations Availability of suitable land and property Building supply networks
Page 38
25 4.3 Creative Industries There has been substantial growth in the number of people employed in information and communication-related jobs, increasing 100% or by 1250 people between 2016 and 2020. The majority of this growth has been driven by computer consultancy-related employment, which has seen a 17% growth in registered businesses, and 150% growth in the number of people employed. In contrast, the wider GCR and Scotland experienced a decrease in the number of registered computer consultancy businesses (-13% and -17% respectively) and much smaller increases in the numbers of people employed in this area (34% and 37%), suggesting that Renfrewshire has particular strengths in this area. Skills Development Scotland forecasts that the creative industries will be a growth area for the Renfrewshire economy between 2021 and 2031, with an estimated 11% growth in the number of people employed in the area by 2031. Given the apparent strength of computer consultancy in Renfrewshire, it seems likely that some of this future growth will be driven in this area. However, there is also a belief among stakeholders that there is potential to capitalise on the strong film and TV sector in the City of Glasgow and develop the Renfrewshire-based production industry. Given the increasing strength of the creative industries at the regional, national, and UK-wide levels, it follows that Renfrewshire should seek to facilitate further growth in its already expanding sector to support a green recovery post-pandemic and deliver low-carbon jobs into the future. Opportunities Challenges Mix of jobs types Inward investment Image Enterprise/ business starts Attract visitor spend Labour and skills (local) Competition from other locations Availability of suitable land and property Provision of incubation space Competition for wider city region
Page 39
26 4.4 Business Services/ Asset Management Across various areas, including general cleaning of buildings and renting and leasing of cars and light motor vehicles, Renfrewshire has seen substantial growth in its service sector. For example, between 2016 and 2020: 1500 additional people were employed in cleaning of buildings (+43% increase) 875 additional people were employed in vehicle rental/leasing (+700% increase) 550 additional people were employed in business support service activities (+220% increase) 200 additional people were employed in security service activities (+25%) While service jobs may not result in high value-added products, they offer opportunities to people who may otherwise be unable to engage in the labour market. As such, the local economy should provide these jobs on good terms adopting Fair Work practices to ensure that Renfrewshire has an inclusive economy providing opportunities for all. Opportunities Challenges Entry level jobs External contracts – national trade Business expansions Supply chain development Support inclusion agendas Need to make priority Labour and skills - numbers Availability of suitable land and property Building supply networks Lack of formal track record 4.5 Tourism and the Visitor Economy Renfrewshire is keen to build on the momentum generated through the Paisley City of Culture bid with the belief (which seems to be supported) that the area “punches below its weight” and that a focus on culture sits nicely alongside the more “hard edged” advanced manufacturing. Opportunities Challenges Positive impact on image and perception Attract external spend into area Entry level and high value jobs Supply chain opportunities Green Agenda Labour and skills – numbers Level of local interest Sector perception - volatile Build as part of wider regional agenda How to build talent pipeline
Page 40
27 4.6 Key Employment - Foundation Economy Across Renfrewshire, certain sectors within the foundational economy have been consistently important in the local economy, in terms of jobs/employment. Although not necessarily high growth areas (in terms of output or skills), these sectors are nonetheless important, and RC should continue to support their presence in the local economy, particularly through their employability work. Health and Social Care In terms of employment, health and social care is the largest sector in Renfrewshire, with approximately 12,000 employees, spread across 190 businesses. Around 4,000 of these people are employed in hospital-related roles, and a further 2,000 employed in residential care activities and 1500 in non-residential social work activities. Renfrewshire’s pensionable population is expected to grow by 36% between 2018 and 2043. Given this substantial growth, there will be greater demand for both hospital-related care and residential care workers in the future, which underpins Skills Development Scotland’s forecast that health and social care will continue to be a crucial sector in Renfrewshire’s economy by 2031. Opportunities Challenges Entry level and high value jobs Support local FE/HE Potential demographic impacts Growing demand for jobs – secure employment Supply chain opportunities Labour and skills – numbers Time to obtain qualifications/experience Level of local interest Sector perception Build as part of wider regional agenda Retail From a high-level overview, Renfrewshire’s retail sector has grown by 5% between 2017 and 2021 in registered businesses – although, from an employment perspective, the sector remained static between 2016 and 2020, with approximately 9,000 employees. Despite the high-level stasis, there has been employment growth in specific retail sub-sectors. For example, between 2016 and 2020: 350 additional people were employed in the sale of new motor vehicles (+39% increase) 225 additional people employed in the sale of used motor vehicles (+129% increase) 200 additional people were employed in the sale of hardware, paints and glass (+67% increase) 200 additional people were employed in non-specialised stores (+25% increase)
Page 41
28 However, alongside these employment gains, several retail sub-sectors have also experienced substantial job losses. For example, between 2016 and 2020: 560 fewer people were employed in the wholesale of computers, computer peripheral equipment and software (-93% decrease) 400 fewer people employed in the wholesale of household goods (-50% decrease) 400 fewer people employed in the maintenance and repair of motor vehicles (-44% decrease) 150 fewer people employed in the wholesale of machinery and equipment (-38% decrease) It is hard to disentangle the impact of the pandemic from these employment figures. Nevertheless, it’s important to recognise that while retail has remained a significant sector within the Renfrewshire economy, the more detailed sub-sector view is more variable. Opportunities Challenges Entry level and high value jobs Support local FE/HE Potential demographic impacts Supply chain opportunities Image of area Labour and skills – numbers Retail is changing Level of local interest Sector perception - volatile Build as part of wider regional agenda Construction Traditionally, construction has been a significant sector within the Renfrewshire economy. In terms of the number of businesses, the construction sector is the second largest, with 675 registered businesses, having grown by 4% between 2017 and 2021. This growth is driven by expansion in two areas, with an additional 20 businesses that develop building projects (+80% increase) and five businesses (+6% increase) focusing on plumbing, heat, and air conditioning installation. However, employment in the construction sector contracted by 30% between 2016 and 2020, with around 1,500 fewer employees. Over this period, the most significant decline occurred in the following areas: 300 fewer people employed in the construction of commercial buildings (-50% decrease) 250 fewer people employed in electrical installation (-36% decrease) 175 fewer people employed in building completion and finishing (-70% decrease) 150 fewer people employed in joinery installation (-38% decrease) As with retail, it is hard to disentangle the effect of the pandemic here. It is interesting to note that the increase in the number of registered businesses has not increased employment, indicating that many of these new businesses are likely sole traders or micro-enterprises.
Page 42
29 Additionally, it is important to recognise the challenges that the construction industry is likely to face moving forward as large-scale developments such as AMIDS come to fruition. Nevertheless, the construction industry will play an important role in the transition to Net Zero, particularly concerning retrofitting Renfrewshire's housing and commercial properties with insulation and green heating technologies such as heat pumps. In this regard, it is positive that the number of plumbing, heat, and air conditioning installation businesses has increased, and RC should look to further support the expansion of this sector in line with wider strategic consideration of “green jobs” potential. In 2021, a CITB report stated that “to ensure the Scottish Government’s commitment to achieving Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 is on track, the construction industry will require the equivalent of 22,500 new roles to be created by 2028... Additional decarbonisation work will have created the demand for just over 4,600 construction project managers, 1,900 building envelope specialists, and 4,300 plumbers and HVAC specialists”. This presents a partnership approach opportunity for RC in collaboration with local employers and FE/HE providers to develop a skills pathway to attract new recruits and upskill the existing workforce within construction. Given other local authorities and areas are already progressing plans in this space (e.g. Construction Skills Academy in North Lanarkshire), it is important that RC and local construction companies are able to develop these opportunities at pace. Opportunities Challenges Range of job types Support local FE/HE Support local building/ development activity Green jobs Supply chain opportunities Labour and skills – numbers Time to obtain qualifications/experience Level of local interest Sector perception Engaging with SMEs Green and Low Carbon As set out in Chapter 2.3, addressing the climate emergency and the transition to net zero is already a main policy priority for both local and national government. Although green and low carbon jobs will be a crosscutting factor across most if not all sectors in the future, the opportunities and challenges are particularly evident for certain sectors within Renfrewshire. For example, Renfrewshire’s existing sectoral strengths, such as transport and logistics, construction, and manufacturing, have traditionally been dominated by carbon. Transport and logistics, which is the largest emitting sector in terms of Scotland’s total greenhouse gas emissions, represents 5% of the business base.
Page 43
30 The key national asset of Glasgow Airport, (which is located in Renfrewshire) one of Scotland’s major exporting hubs, aims to achieve net zero carbon for direct emissions by the mid-2030s6. Both the sector and the Airport are core components of Glasgow City Region’s bid to establish a green freeport. These are zones with a rail, sea or airport that benefit from a package of tax and other incentives through a combination of devolved and reserved levers7. Two green freeports are to be created in Scotland with five regions submitting bids including Clyde Green Freeport (submission for Glasgow City Region). Of particular relevance to RC is the proposed plans around Glasgow Airport and AMIDS8 which include: Proposed plan to create the world’s first climate neutral airport cluster (185 hectares) at Glasgow Airport and AMIDS; Opportunity for Scottish aerospace sector to play leading role in Jet Zero air travel decarbonisation and an increased share of the additional £39 billion and 150,000 jobs associated with it; Develop the high-skill, high value and export orientated sectors of aerospace, advanced manufacturing and life sciences sectors; and A new state of the art cargo facility will double cargo handling capacity, enabling the airport to increase the value of Scottish exports beyond the 25% it currently handles and making a vital contribution to meeting the UK and Scottish targets of hitting £1 trillion in exports annually and growing the share of GDP generated by exports to 25% respectively”. While it remains to be seen whether the Clyde Green Freeport bid will be successful, the proposed plans underline the opportunity and benefits of green and low carbon jobs and investment for RC and the wider city region. If successful, there is a key role in developing the supply chains for local businesses. With further detail above the construction industry will play an important role in the transition to Net Zero, particularly concerning retrofitting Renfrewshire's housing and commercial properties with insulation and green heating technologies such as heat pumps. This presents a partnership approach opportunity for RC in collaboration with local employers and FE/HE providers to develop a skills pathway to attract new recruits and upskill the existing workforce within construction. 6 GlasgowAirport.com: Sustainability 7 Scottish Government: Green ports 8 Clyde Green Freeport: Our Bid
Page 44
31 As set out in Chapter 2.3.3, with a strong manufacturing sector in Renfrewshire and the development of the national Advanced Manufacturing Innovation District Scotland (AMIDS), the region is viewed as a strategically significant national site for the sector, GCR and innovation more generally. This can be seen in NMIS which aims to sector adopt new manufacturing techniques9 (e.g. Digital Factory 2050 which promotes Industry 4.0) and provide leadership, build collaborations and enhance capability to influence adaptation and exploit manufacturing opportunities to boost Scotland’s transition to a net-zero emissions economy by 2045. Further work could be done to join up local manufacturers with AMIDS and NMIS to develop these green opportunities through innovative solutions. Overall, although the opportunity is clear, it is well recognised (if not fully developed) with other local authorities and areas already progressing plans for green and low carbon sector (e.g. Construction Skills Academy in North Lanarkshire). Therefore, it is important that RC and partners are able to develop these opportunities at pace. From a business perspective (as identified in business interviews for this research), a key challenge is the current lack of awareness or strategic direction on what net zero means and looks like for some businesses. In this respect, RC could play an active role in a partnership approach to collaborate with industry (e.g., through AMIDS) and Further/Higher Education providers to develop a business support and skills pathway - this would need appropriately resourced. Opportunities Challenges Green jobs with a range of occupations Construction, advanced manufacturing, aerospace, life sciences Support sustainability of local employers Support local FE/HE Supply chain opportunities Key assets such as AMIDS and Airport Labour and skills – numbers Specific low caron skills Time to obtain qualifications/experience Level of local interest Engaging with SMEs Competition from other locations Competition for wider city region 9 For example, the adoption and application of automation, light-weighting, digital manufacturing technology and supply chain development.
Page 45
32 5 Stakeholder Feedback 5.1 Introduction As part of the research, one-to-one interviews were held with around 30 key stakeholders, including public sector partners, the Economic Leadership Panel (ELP) and large local/regional businesses. The purpose of these interviews was to gather wider qualitative feedback to support the research and inform the conclusions, recommendations, and next steps. A full list of consultees is provided at Appendix B. The feedback is summarised and presented under the key themes raised during the consultations by the stakeholders. 5.2 Sectors and Regional Performance 5.2.1 Sectors and Themes The overview was that the areas main sectoral strength was (unsurprisingly) in manufacturing - although there was no certainty that jobs in the sector were local with workers commuting from across the wider City Region and Ayrshire to access these jobs. There was also a recognition that in terms of jobs it was probably the foundation sectors that were key. There was an almost unanimous view that creative/ cultural industries and tourism will be important in moving forward. Other sectors/themes that were mentioned as a priority are detailed below. Mentioned Sectors Mentioned Themes Retail Construction Life science Engineering Airport related aerospace Enterprise/entrepreneurship Availability of land and property Incubation space Skills and labour Supply chains
Page 46
33 5.2.2 Strength as a Business Location Renfrewshire’s location and proximity to innovation districts in Glasgow city centre and the west end, combined with the developing innovation and R&D expertise at Inchinnan (NMIS, LWC, AFRC, MMIC) was seen as a significant asset, particularly in relation to attracting new investment and inward investors to Renfrewshire. For example, the business cases for these centres of excellence were (in part) predicated on their ability to attract industry partners and supply chain companies to co-locate – creating physical and sectoral/thematic cluster of activity. These are focused on key employment sites such as: Hillington Park is one of the largest industrial parks in the UK that provides good quality industrial and office pavilion accommodation that is currently 95% let. New floorspace coming onto the market in 2022 (c. 115,000 sq. ft across three industrial terraces and a range of sizes) is 25% of the space is pre-let with a further 25% subject to negotiation. The space is suitable for a range of sectors and businesses, the current occupiers include: engineering, manufacturing, food and drink, storage/distribution/warehousing, trade counters, automotive, to name a few; and Advanced Manufacturing Innovation District Scotland (AMIDS) – a site of national significance and collaborative project led by RC to develop a 52-hectare site next to Glasgow Airport into Scotland's home for advanced manufacturing, creating a unique campus style environment. AMIDS will house NMIS and MMIC and significant funding has already been invested via the City Deal in the transport connection and other site enabling works. 5.3 Operational and Delivery Challenges 5.3.1 Economic Development Capacity / Resources The single biggest issue to be raised was the need for (and lack of) a central resource to deliver any growth strategy. There was an expressed concern that there were already limited resources and with a “tough” public sector budget settlement this could only get more challenging. While this was a key issue raised mainly by public sector stakeholders, it was also seen as an issue by the private sector – with several indicating that they have had limited ongoing engagement with RC in terms of business support or even a more informal relationship.
Page 47
34 This was seen both because of the limited resources available but also a ‘cultural’ challenge – with the relationship between RC and the wider business base viewed as very transactional. To provide some sense of public sector engagement with the local business community some examples are provided in Table 5.1. Table 5.1: Renfrewshire Business Engagement 2016/17 2020/21 Number of Businesses Supported by Council Economic Development Activity 495 490 Number of Business Gateway Support Interventions 296 934 Number of Companies Assisted by Scottish Development International 50 26 Source: SLAED Annual LA Indictor Reports To put this into context, there are around 5,000 business in Renfrewshire, not counting many non- registered micro businesses and new starts. The current penetration rate is relatively low and there are likely numerous companies that are, or have, potential to grow but are not currently engaged with RC or other business support providers. Given this restricted funding/resources environment, there was a fear that pivoting significantly to focus on new sectoral priorities could dilute the effort to capitalise on those hard won gains such as the emerging sector opportunities likely to be leveraged through the City-Region Deal projects. 5.3.2 Local vs Regional While Renfrewshire is believed to have a strong inward investment offer/proposition, it is not clear how much of the benefits will flow locally. For example, the high value future employees may choose not to live locally but commute to work and thus offer only limited local value. In this case, the ability to tie in and develop local supply chains is seen as a crucial requirement to clearly show local success. 5.3.3 Account Management From a public sector perspective, typically, account management involves identifying key businesses (sectors or companies) that will support the delivery of an economic strategy (growth) and having a named and dedicated manager responsible for supporting them and accessing the wide range of available business support services.
Page 48
35 The use of an account management system was noted by consultees as being a ‘good practice’ approach, particularly when dealing with growth sectors and business able to scale at pace. Further, there was a consensus that account management can provide focus and support a growth agenda, but again with the key point that it needs to be fully resourced. The new role and activities of Scottish Enterprise in this are yet to be fully understood. 5.3.4 Joined Up Support Provision Although it has become a bit clichéd, the need to ensure that the relevant public and private sector agencies, for example, Scottish Enterprise, City Region Deal partners, Skills Development Scotland, FE/HE, and business representative groups such as the Chambers of Commerce etc who have a role in economic development are all talking to each other in a meaningful way and working to the same goals. While at a strategic level this may be seen to be in place via the Economic Leadership Panel, stakeholders highlighted that much closer alignment at the operational and delivery level is also required, particularly with resource constraints. There is a need for partners to agree and set out clear roles and responsibilities - all partners have a role to play, and RC cannot (nor should not) try to lead and deliver all the business support services in isolation. We address this issues in more detail within the recommendations. 5.3.5 Skills and Labour Skills and access to labour was the key issue for local business in terms of unlocking growth, at least in the short term. The issue is seen as being both about skills (qualifications and experience) and the number of potential available recruits (labour market supply). Some noted that before turning to ambitions for securing new growth, the immediate priority for RC and partners was to work with the existing business base to help meet their existing (unmet) demand for new recruits and labour – retention and sustainability rather than growth.
Page 49
36 There was a general awareness about the changing nature of the labour market (e.g., the great resignation catalysed by the Covid-19 pandemic - with labour demand outstripping supply which provides more opportunities for employees to be mobile and transition between roles/jobs) and the need for business to think more creatively about how and who they recruit and on what terms (e.g., flexible working)10. 5.3.1 Local Intelligence As a consequence of having a large business base, internal competition for resources and funding, and limited ongoing engagement with the business base it was felt that, outwith the ELP, RC only have a partial picture and understanding of the business base. For example, queries were raised through the consultations regarding how well RC and other partners understand: who are the biggest employers; what companies have the greatest potential and aspiration to scale at pace; where are the potential opportunities to engage the local supply chain, etc. As an example of other good practice services, Team North Ayrshire is widely regarded as an innovative and effective approach to business development that adopts a North Ayrshire-centric approach to account management. Feedback from the team that established the service identified that the important first step was having a detailed understanding of the business base and individual companies – you cannot provide a tailored service unless you know and understand business base in detail. The general view was that RC do not yet have the systems, granular data, or company contacts that would allow and support any proactive targeting of the business base. It is important to note that this also applies to supply chain development. 10 See also new skills publication from Open University – Business Barometer Report 2022
Page 50
37 5.4 Capitalising on Future Growth Opportunities Broadly speaking, the feedback identified that the future opportunities for the Renfrewshire economy is comprised of three main groups or sectors: Foundation sectors such as health and social care, hospitality, retail and construction which make up the bulk of the economy; Growth sectors based on Scottish Government definitions, Table 5.2; and Niche growth sectors not included above – mainly advanced manufacturing, asset management and logistics. Table 5.2: Renfrewshire Growth Sector Company Base 2021 Growth Sector No. of businesses Financial and Business Services 755 Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) 415 Creative Industries (including Digital) 395 Food and Drink 135 Energy (including Renewables) 75 Life Sciences 10 Source: Scottish Gov Growth Sector Statistics 2021 The general consensus is that there were no “hidden gems” waiting to be discovered and while more could be done to support the key sectors, they were at least known to RC and partners. The data did, however, highlight two sectors where Renfrewshire can be seen to “punch above its weight” Transport and logistics – driven by access to the airport, strong road links and availability of good quality industrial space at locations such as Westway and Hillington; and Asset management - security, cleaning and office management services have had substantial local growth. In terms of sector priorities, it was believed that the local Economic Strategy together with the projects sponsored through the City Region Deal had got it broadly right. That being said, it is also important that RC and partners remain flexible to support local opportunities to grow and diversify the economy - there is seen to be a strong case to support the cultural and creative industries and the wider visitor economy and hospitality.
Page 51
38 In this sense it is important to recognise which sectors offer opportunities for growth at a regional level (with Renfrewshire acting as the de facto centre of excellence for advanced and precision engineering and manufacturing) and which are more localised such as developing the creative industries with the momentum from the (unsuccessful) Paisley City of Culture bid. The consensus was that Renfrewshire should focus less on trying to identify (hidden) sectors and more on individual growth companies. In other words, there should be a focus on what already got in order to build on existing strengths. 5.4.1 Thematic Priorities While there was limited feedback in terms of stakeholders identifying any hidden growth sectors or untapped potential within the local/regional economy, stakeholders were able to identify a broad cross-section of thematic priorities for future intervention: Renfrewshire’s enabling and business infrastructure (land and property) needs further investment – in some cases this was seen as a key physical barrier to grow, for example, businesses are unable to extend their current premises or find suitable local follow-on space; Develop new incubators to compliment enterprise and creative industries opportunities; Innovation, enterprise, and entrepreneurship were viewed as important catalysts for growth, particularly within research intensive and sectors that rely on more advanced technologies; and International trade and inward investment – Renfrewshire is open for business. In particular, the availability of industrial land in Renfrewshire was seen as a key (albeit not fully developed) asset within the region and should be further developed to help facilitate growth.
Page 52
39 5.4.2 Local and Regional Assets There was strong feedback that RC should be more proactive in assessing the sector opportunities and exploit the significant property, business and other assets that already operate in the local and regional conurbation, such as: Glasgow Airport - aerospace and MRO activity, export markets such as food and drink, visitor economy; Hillington Park - wholesale, automotive, manufacturing, storage/logistics; Braehead – retail and visitor economy; Queen Elizabeth University Hospital - life sciences and MedTech AMIDS – advanced and precision manufacturing, R&D, innovation and digital; and Ocean Terminal - visitor economy and transport and logistics. Aligned to the feedback above regarding not diluting already limited resources – the feedback was clear that Renfrewshire has an enviable number of assets on which to grow its economy and these should be the focus and priority for the council to proactively target. 5.4.3 Local Supply Chains and Community Wealth Building We were unable to identify any major local supply chains, instead most large businesses reported that the supply chains were procured on a national and international basis. In addition, we were also unable to find any local/regional (place-based) supply chain mapping either of demand or supply side opportunities – a point which we return to later in the recommendations. This is not to say that there are no opportunities that exist to develop upstream and downstream supply chain capabilities within Renfrewshire, just that the data and intelligence is simply not available. Intuitively, stakeholders felt that given the size of the business base and the scale of the Glasgow city region economy – there are opportunities to develop sector specific and cross-cutting supply chain capabilities. Example provided for sector specific opportunities related to areas as diverse as manufacturing components for the aerospace and space sectors to contract manufacturing for pharma companies, while cross-cutting opportunities could include storage and logistics hubs. At a very localised level, Community Wealth Building is a developing theory that advises local anchor institutions (such as councils, schools, hospitals etc) have a key role to play in supporting local supply chains and retaining wealth in the community. Figures 5.1 and 5.2 provide data for Renfrewshire in relation to the procurement expenditure that is retained locally.
Page 53
40 Figure 5.1: RC procurement spend on local enterprises (%) (2016/17 – 2020/21) Source: SLAED Figure 5.2: Council procurement spend on local enterprises (%) by Local Authority (2020-21) Scotland figure is 29.1%. Source: SLAED
Page 54
41 5.5 Business Highlights While there was a degree of synergy across the feedback from different stakeholders, as economic growth will primarily be driven by industry and the private sector, we have extracted some of the key message from the business interviews: With close proximity to Glasgow Airport and major road networks, Renfrewshire is well- connected for businesses – although for some consultees, improvements could still be made to the transport (road) and business infrastructure. It should be noted that some of these improvements will be addressed by City Deal and Levelling Up Fund projects (if bids for the latter are successful); Some businesses have invested significantly into their site and most have growth plans after ‘weathering the storm’ and fallout over the last couple of years catalysed by the COVID-19 pandemic. These are “organic rather than unrealistic” plans which account for the current uncertainty of the market and risk adverse investment and growth strategies of the private sector – growth is therefore likely to be tempered, but growth nonetheless; External economic shocks have had a considerable impact for some businesses, mainly in terms of recruitment (COVID-19 and Brexit) as well as profitability and contracts (rising costs – some noted rigidity of contracts is challenging). To some extent, it is still not clear what sectors and their supply chains will be “winners or losers” from the shake-out, with those able to diversify, adapt quickly and demonstrate resilience the most likely to be sustainable; A few businesses have made investments on their journey to achieving net zero, although these tended to be small scale and done on an ad-hoc basis rather than at a strategic level (e.g. solar panels, EV chargers); Whilst there is a willingness to make their business net zero, many are waiting for adequate infrastructure, support, and guidance before undertaking any strategic planning or making significant investments (“not at the tipping point yet”). Of those who have engaged with RC and/or received support, all companies valued the growth support received from Renfrewshire Council (some noted that the more specialist and bespoke support had the greatest impact), however they also highlighted a lack of awareness of what support was available from RC and elsewhere. For most, support tended to be on an ad-hoc basis. In general, support was said to be currently targeted at SMEs and large companies – few respondents noted that there should be more growth support targeted at a broader range (scale and scope) of companies. One source of frustration with support received was that it felt disjointed and there were often diverging priorities across the various departments (e.g. planning and economic development) which sometimes led to delays with projects.
Page 55
42 Recruitment and skills are a key challenge across all sectors and roles. A range of (primarily external) factors, such as COVID-19 and Brexit, were felt to be driving this which have led to higher expectations of pay and working conditions (“it used to be an employer’s market, now it’s a candidate’s market”). Across all sectors, most employers noted that they are increasingly looking for digital skills either for existing roles or as an expansion of their digital team; Across the manufacturing business base, there was interest to engage with and learn more about AMIDS as there was a current lack of awareness of opportunities for local employers provided by AMIDS; Anecdotally from business membership organisations and businesses, several sectors in Renfrewshire have experienced growth particularly creative industries as well as tourism and hospitality; and Increasing the visibility of procurement opportunities for local businesses from public and private sector contracts would be beneficial and may help retain more value locally. 5.6 Stakeholder Conclusions In summary, the stakeholders were unable to identify any new growth sectors but did comment that the focus should be on projects already secured with a focus on what is “already in the bag”. A focus using an account management type approach should concentrate on delivering current projects such as NMIS or individual companies who may not operate in a major sector but nevertheless have a connection to already secured projects. An area where there was unanimous consensus was in supporting the growth of the creative and cultural sector and tourism as a twin approach alongside the advanced manufacturing. Finally, we must again highlight the issue of resources and capacity as one that must be addressed at an early stage if desired progress is to be achieved. Interestingly and despite it probably being the key national issue, climate emergency and green opportunities were rarely mentioned. While there are definite opportunities, it is as yet perhaps unclear what these are exactly for Renfrewshire. Perhaps this issue could be taken up in more detail by the ELP.
Page 56
43 6 Conclusions & Recommendations 6.1 Introduction This final chapter sets out the high-level conclusions and presents some options and recommendations for consideration. 6.2 Summary Conclusions The analyses have utilised quantitative data sources alongside intelligence gathered through consultations with stakeholder and EKOS knowledge/understanding of the local and regional economy. This has informed our assessment of the sectoral strengths and weaknesses and those areas/sectors that offer the greatest opportunity to deliver sustainable (inclusive) growth. To a greater or lesser extent, the key sectors and growth opportunities are already acknowledged by RC and partners - neither the economic data analysis nor the stakeholder discussions flagged up any significant sectors where RC or their partners were not currently active or seen as a missed opportunity. So, in this sense it seems clear that there does not appear to be any obvious “hidden” potential growth sectors and that those sectors with growth potential were already “on the radar” and that either RC or other stakeholders were already engaging. That is not to say that more cannot be done by partners to support these sectors, and we return to this point below. There were also strong views that, in recognition of limited resources, the priority must be to support those sectors where Renfrewshire has an existing competitive advantage and representation, rather than chasing new opportunities or trying to develop new sectors “from the ground up” – focus on projects already secured. Specifically, in terms of supply chains, the evidence suggest that these are currently quite weak in Renfrewshire with little data available other than anecdotally. Indeed, the larger companies who participated in the consultations, when pressed highlighted that they have limited local supply chains, many of which are global in nature. In terms of the most effective delivery approach to support growth opportunities, an account management service was generally seen as an effective method to support growth but that this could perhaps be better focused on individual companies tied to projects already secured.
Page 57
44 However, there were three significant issues arising from this: The filters and definitions used to define a “growth” company - one of the keys challenges and questions arising at the study outset was with regards to the definition and parameters around “growth sectors” and the need to better define “growth” at the Renfrewshire level; The types of service to be provided that did not fit with what was already available; and The need for capacity and resources to support this approach The ability to fully resource delivery both from a continuation and new priority perspective. It will not be possible to keep delivering current priority plus new ones with the current capacity and level of resources (which appear to be already well stretched). In order to focus on new priorities and deliver a growth agenda while continuing to deliver existing priorities such as employability we believe that there is a clear need for additional resources able to focus on the developing priorities and more effective partnership working with clear roles and responsibilities 6.3 Sector Strengths and Drivers of Growth The key growth opportunities are aligned to the following sectoral and thematic areas: Current and already being addressed but require as stronger “local” focus o Advanced manufacturing, engineering, life science/medical Current and could do more – requires development work o Development of local culture/ creative offering; o Further development of tourism/ hospitality offering Innovation and entrepreneurship; o Perhaps with HE/FE leading Land, property and incubation o Development of the land and property assets with a focus on innovation and enterprise and the role of incubators. Map and develop local supply chains o Develop new support products In addition to the sectors noted above, Renfrewshire has a strong base within the logistics and transport and asset management sub sectors which may be worth further consideration.
Page 58
45 6.4 Future Sector Focus The core recommendations from the research are for RC to: Focus support and resources on existing areas of local/regional strength where Renfrewshire has a competitive advantage, has already secured investment and has demonstrated strong historical performance; Identify opportunities to engage and continue to support the foundational economies as drivers of future jobs. While these sectors may not be drivers of future output (GVA) growth, or mainly high waged jobs they are a significant source of local employment and vital for the sustainability of the local economy; and Commit resources to target emerging opportunities to diversify and grow the local economy in areas such as the cultural and creative industries, visitor economy and hospitality and spin-off activity catalysed by the research base. The approach has many benefits including: There is an appropriate mix between ‘quality and quantity’ of employment opportunities: Focusing on higher value sectors that are likely to drive productivity and output - creating well paid jobs and attracting new inward investment in the form of company co-locations and upstream and downstream supply chain capabilities; Supporting sectors such as service providers and retail that traditionally have lower barriers to entry and offer flexible working opportunities, etc which may be more accessible to Renfrewshire residents that are economically inactive but want to work; and Support foundation sectors which act as the major employers and are forecasting greatest replacement demand – helping to ensure high levels of employment with Renfrewshire. 6.5 Future Delivery Options Based on the research presented in the report, a key emerging issue was the need to consider potential delivery options to facilitate growth. While this will be the focus of the second phase of the research, there are several ways in which RC and partners can proceed – we have summarised three potential approaches below (there are other potential approaches but these have been discounted). At this stage, we have not the data required to present a full appraisal and instead have presented a largely qualitative assessment.
Page 59
46 6.5.1 Option 1: Sector Account Management This approach would require RC to develop or recruit business development officers that have expertise or a background within the key target growth sectors. In considering this, we note that most agencies, including SE, have or are, moving away from a key sector focus where you focus resource on relevant companies. While there is a strong rationale for this approach, there are also several challenges: How to define sectors with future growth potential; Previous growth in a sector is no guarantee of future growth; Whether support is targeted to all companies in the sector; What support is available for non-key sector companies; What is the scale and scope of the support offer; and How do partners relate to this approach. In addition, while we can clearly identify current growth sector in Scottish Government terms, it was highlighted that there does not appear to be any “hidden gems” in Renfrewshire. Finally, there is the issue of resources as it would not seem appropriate to try and adopt this approach without securing additional resources. 6.5.2 Option 2: Company Account Management This option is not dissimilar to Option 1 although is perhaps more credible as it is not excluding anyone. However, similar questions apply as above: How to define companies with future growth potential – fields to use; Previous growth in a company is no guarantee of future growth; Do you support any companies regardless of sector; What about companies that can grow output by replacing labour with capital; What about support for non key sector companies; What is the scale and scope of the support offer; How do partners relate to this approach.
Page 60
47 Similar to Option 1, there is the issue of resources as it would not seem appropriate to try and adopt this approach without securing additional resources. 6.5.3 Option 3: Investor Support Service This option can be clearly placed alongside Option 2. One of the key tasks will be to attract new investment into the area. In this sense, investment can be seen as both: business investment in terms of start-up, expansion or location into the area; and development investment through the provision of new property or infrastructure. The overarching purpose of the Investor Support Service is: To make is as easy as possible to locate/expand/ invest in Renfrewshire. There is a clear rationale for providing this type of support: it is recognised that in a market environment where small differences can provide a competitive advantage; it has been shown that a hands-on/ pro-active approach is valued by business and can result in a location being recognised as “pro-business”; developing an ongoing relationship/aftercare with business can yield long term dividends. For example, most new inwards investment projects are 2nd or later rounds of investment. In order to complete a detailed design of the service, it will be important to have a set of agreed objectives and key performance indicators against which the Service will be measured – what is it the Service is seeking to achieve? For example, is the Service primarily focused on job creation or company location or financial investment or all three? Within these parameters, is it any jobs or company or a particular kind (e.g., higher value or sector specific). Further details of a specification are included in Appendix E.
Page 61
48 6.6 Summary While all options are possible, they all have some positive and negative features. There are, however, some common threads running through them all: Need for and availability of resources; Strengthen partnerships; Clear delivery roles and responsibilities; Ways to assess and appraise participation; and The need for absolute commitment – no dipping out and in. Based on the above, we are unable to clearly offer a strong recommendation although our sense favours a hybrid Option 2/3 as it: Offers a bespoke approach for Renfrewshire; It will seek to bind in partners in funding and delivery; It will lead to the economic realisation of new and planned investment. There will of course require to be further work undertaken to develop and test the specification in detail.
Page 62
49 6.7 Additional Recommendations In addition to the core recommendations to target sector growth opportunities and restructure delivery structures, other recommendations are as follows: Supply chain development – undertake an initial mapping exercise to determine opportunity in both supply and demand sides of market; Undertake further engagement to agree what is the Renfrewshire approach towards green jobs for the future ( ELP); Commit resources and funding to develop a company database and management system; At the time of reporting there was limited information available on the Green Freeport bid to UK Government which includes sites at Glasgow Airport, on the River Clyde (such as Ocean Terminal in Greenock) and Mossend rail freight terminal in North Lanarkshire. If the bid is successful, specifically within Renfrewshire (the Glasgow Airport Investment Area) the new designation could attract new inward investment and increase the tonnage and value of exports from the region. If successful, partners should consider the potential opportunities and alignment with the identified growth sector opportunities; Through ELP, develop operational partnerships to deliver the agreed preferred option – clear roles and responsibilities and access to resources; Develop a partnership approach to the “green jobs” potential; Consider the role of enterprise and entrepreneurship in a future Renfrewshire approach in terms of roles for RC and partners (e.g. the education service and FE/HE); and Consider and prepare a Shared Prosperity Fund bid for preferred option, if considered appropriate. These will be enhanced and expanded as agreed for the final report.
Page 63
50 Appendix A: Economic Profile This chapter sets out a brief economic overview of Renfrewshire, focusing on the business base and employment patterns. It also summarises the key pointers from the review that feed into the conclusions and recommendations. Economic Overview Renfrewshire has quite a mixed economy, with traditionally strong sectors like manufacturing, health, retail, and construction, as well as growing sectors such as the creative industries, and business support services. Business Base Business Characteristics In 2021, there were approximately 4,720 businesses in Renfrewshire. In line with the rest of the Glasgow City Region (GCR) and Scotland, most of these businesses are classified as micro businesses, meaning they have 0-9 employees (87%). The data presented in Table A.1 indicates that the general business mix in Renfrewshire is similar to the GCR and Scotland, albeit with a slightly higher proportion of large businesses. Table A.1: Business Base by Employment Size Band (2021) Business size by employment Renfrewshire Renfrewshire % GCR % Scotland % Micro (0-9) 4,095 87% 87% 88% Small (10-49) 515 11% 11% 10% Medium (50-249) 80 2% 2% 2% Large (250+) 30 1% 0.4% 0.4% Total 4,720 100% 49,845 175,400 Source: UK Business Count Approximately two-thirds of businesses in Renfrewshire have an annual turnover under £200,000, with a profile at the lower end of the turnover size band which is very similar to the wider GCR, Table A.2. Indeed, the general turnover patterns for Renfrewshire’s businesses is broadly equivalent with both the GCR and Scotland as a whole. The exception to this is in the £5,000,000 bracket, in which Renfrewshire is above the regional and national average, which may reflect the higher proportion of large businesses in Renfrewshire.
Page 64
51 Table A.2: Business Base by Turnover Size Band (2021) Turnover Size band Renfrewshire Renfrewshire % GCR % Scotland % 0 to 49 (thousand) 595 13% 13% 15% 50 to 99 (thousand) 1,055 22% 23% 22% 100 to 199 (thousand) 1,570 33% 33% 33% 200 to 499 (thousand) 640 14% 14% 13% 500 to 999 (thousand) 380 8% 8% 8% 1000 to 1999 (thousand) 210 4% 4% 4% 2000 to 4999 (thousand) 150 3% 3% 3% 5000 to 9999 (thousand) 55 1% 1% 1% 10000 to 49999 (thousand) 40 1% 1% 1% 50000+ (thousand) 25 1% 0.3% 0.3% Source: UK Business Counts According to Business Insider, fourteen of Renfrewshire’s businesses feature in Scotland’s top 500 largest companies, Table A.3. It is important to recognise that several businesses including Petrie Tucker and Partners, G.S. Associates, and Clark Contracts are headquartered in Renfrewshire but operate across the UK. However, a number of businesses conduct their operations in Renfrewshire, with Vascutek, Peak Scientific Instruments, and Professional Beauty Systems working out of Inchinnan Business Park. Table A.3: Renfrewshire-based Businesses in Scotland’s Top 500 Businesses Company Location Activity Turnover (£m) Profit (£m) Employees W.H Malcolm Group Paisley Logistics £193.83 £7.04 2,048 Braid Group Renfrew Logistics £168.19 £6.29 263 Vascutek Renfrew Manufacturer £88.16 £13.82 790 Dusty Tlp Renfrew Finance £72.86 £15.98 500 Peak Scientific Instruments Renfrew Equipment Supplier £50.18 £19.76 230 James Howden & Company Renfrew Engineering £66.23 £6.20 273 Enva Scotland Paisley Recycling Provider £68.66 £4.50 434 Kent Foods Paisley Food Manufacturing £204.05 £1.56 190 Petrie Tucker Partners Paisley Dentist £51.22 £3.32 1,313 Professional Beauty Systems Renfrew Beauty Supplies £35.58 £6.19 206 Scottish Leather Group Bridge Of Weir Leather Wholesaler £73.01 £0.77 575 G.S. Associates (Scotland) Renfrew Commercial Cleaning £37.29 £2.18 3,326 Clark Contracts Paisley Construction £65.47 £0.41 259 Southeast Traders Renfrew Wholesale £40.92 £0.77 20 Source: Insider's Top500 Scottish companies list 2022 in full - Business Insider
Page 65
52 Business Base Change Table A.4 presents broad industry classifications by business counts within the Local Authority area. Between 2017 and 2021, the number of businesses within Renfrewshire has grown by 155, or 3.4%. Table A.4: Broad Industry Business Change (2017-2021) Broad Industry Classification Renfrewshire 2021 Absolute 2017- 2021 change % 2017-2021 change % GCR change % Scot change Professional, scientific & technical 745 -110 -13% -11% -11% Construction 675 25 4% 8% 6% Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services 420 40 11% 6% 2% Retail 415 20 5% 10% 1% Business administration & support services 380 40 12% 9% 5% Accommodation & food services 360 35 11% 11% 6% Manufacturing 300 0 0% 1% 4% Information & communication 235 10 4% -5% -9% Transport & storage (inc postal) 220 45 26% 18% 17% Wholesale 190 10 6% 2% -3% Health 190 -5 -3% 0% -2% Property 150 30 25% 9% 10% Motor trades 145 5 4% 5% 4% Agriculture, forestry & fishing 115 -5 -4% -2% 0% Financial & insurance 95 15 19% 13% 6% Education 60 0 0% 11% 3% Mining, quarrying & utilities 25 0 0% 15% 10% Public administration & defence 0 0 0% 0% 10% Total 4,720 155 3% 3% 0% Source: UK Business Counts. In 11 of the 18 listed sectors, there has been growth over the five years between 2017-2021. The three top growth sectors were: Transport & storage (+26%) Business administration & support services (+12%) Accommodation & food services – hospitality (+11%) Digging down beneath the broad level sector data, we can see that growth has largely been driven by 19 specific sub sector activities, highlighted in Table A.5. The most significant growth has come from unlicensed carriers (88%), reflecting the general rise in couriers servicing online shopping customers, which alongside growth in road transported freight (17%), has underpinned the growth within the transportation and storage sector.
Page 66
53 Several factors underpin Renfrewshire’s strength in the transportation and storage sector, including the area’s central location, well-developed transport infrastructure, and strong manufacturing base. Table A.5: Main 5-digit Subclass Growth (2017-2021) 5-digit SIC Renfrewshire 2021 Absolute 2017-2021 change % 2017- 2021 change % Change in GCR % Change in Scotland 53202: Unlicensed carriers 75 35 88% 67% 108% 41100: Development of building projects 45 20 80% 15% 7% 25620: Machining 35 10 40% 17% 15% 56102: Unlicensed restaurants and cafes 40 10 33% 28% 19% 68209: Letting & operating of own or leased real estate 90 20 29% 9% 10% 81210: General cleaning of buildings 45 10 29% 14% 8% 56103: Take away food shops & mobile food stands 130 25 24% 13% 10% 01500: Mixed farming 30 5 20% 10% 4% 62020: Computer consultancy activities 135 20 17% -13% -17% 49410: Freight transport by road 70 10 17% 11% 5% 74100: Specialised design activities 35 5 17% 5% 2% 81300: Landscape service activities 35 5 17% 9% 3% 96020: Hairdressing & other beauty treatment 150 20 15% 10% 6% 43999: Specialised construction activities (other than scaffold erection) 40 5 14% 21% 16% 82990: Other business support service activities 160 20 14% 5% 7% 71122: Engineering related scientific & technical consulting activities 50 5 11% -3% -3% 45200: Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 105 10 11% 8% 8% 56101: Licensed restaurants 55 5 10% 12% 8% 43220: Plumbing, heat, & air-conditioning installation 90 5 6% 11% 8% Source: UK Business Counts. Note: Activities with fewer than 30 units in 2021 not displayed. Full table can be found in Appendix D.1 Compared to the wider GCR and Scotland, Renfrewshire has also experienced strong growth in several areas, including: Development of building projects (+80%) Machining (+40%) Computer consultancy activities (+17%) Engineering related scientific & technical consulting activities (+11%)
Page 67
54 These industries, alongside the Road-based Freight Sector, are likely to benefit from the AMIDS project which will develop an advanced manufacturing hub at Glasgow Airport. For example, there will be supply chain opportunities for Machining, Engineering related Scientific and Technical Consulting, and Road transported freight businesses, and alongside agglomeration benefits that may present opportunities for collaboration. Employment Following two years of consistent growth, employment in Renfrewshire peaked in 2018, with approximately 87,000 people in employment, Figure A.1. Employment then decreased 3% between 2018 and 2020, with approximately 83,750 people working in Renfrewshire by 2020 – which is still around 1,000 (1%) higher than the 2016. Figure A.1: Employment Trend (2016 = 1.0) Source: Business Register & Employment Survey With approximately 15,700 people working in the public sector in 2019, Renfrewshire has a smaller public sector employment base than both the wider GCR and Scotland. Having a larger private sector is beneficial to the Council, as it will be able to support both direct and supply chain growth in the private sector, compared to only supporting supply chain growth in the public sector. -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020% Change from 2016 Renfrewshire GCR Scotland
Page 68
55 Figure A.2: Public vs Private Employment (2019) Source: Business Register and Employment survey. Employment Change The health sector, covering human health-related work in places like hospitals, residential care activities, and non-residential social work and care, is the largest employer in Renfrewshire, with approximately 12,000 residents employed in this sector in 2020. There have been several growth areas between 2016 and 2020, with particularly strong employment growth in areas including: Information & Communication (100%) Business Administration & Support Services (38%) Mining, Quarrying & Utilities (25%) Interestingly, sectors in which there has been growth within the business base do not necessarily translate to employment growth. For example, the number of businesses in Construction and the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation have grown (4% and 11% respectively), while the numbers of people working in these areas has fallen – quite substantially in the case of Construction (30%) and the Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (22%). This may indicate that larger businesses have either closed or relocated and are then being replaced by micro and small businesses, which provide fewer employment opportunities. 19% 24% 24% 81% 76% 76% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Renfrewshire GCR Scotland Public sector Private sector
Page 69
56 Table A.6: Broad Sector Employment Change (2016-2020) Industry 2020 Absolute change 2016-2020 % 2016- 2020 Change % Change, GCR % Change, Scotland Health 12,000 0 0% -3 % -1% Business Admin & Support Services 11,000 3,000 38% 0% 5% Retail 9,000 0 0% 0% -2% Manufacturing 8,000 -1,000 -11% 4% -1% Transport & Storage 6,000 -1,000 -14 % -0.3% 2% Public Administration & Defence 6,000 1,000 20% 9% 1% Professional, Scientific & Technical 5,000 -1,000 -17% 4% 1% Education 5,000 0 0% 6% 7% Accommodation & Food Services 4,500 -500 -10% -4% -5% Construction 3,500 -1,500 -30% -8% -9% Arts, Entertainment, Recreation & Other 3,500 -1,000 -22% -25% -26% Motor Trades 2,500 250 11% -9% -13% Wholesale 2,500 -1,000 -29% -13% -16% Information & Communication 2,500 1,250 100 % 24% 22% Mining, Quarrying & Utilities 1,000 200 25% -0.4% 0% Property 900 0 0% 3% 3% Financial & Insurance 600 -100 -14% -2% -4% Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 250 -50 -17% -8% 8% Total 83,750 -1,450 -2% -1% -1% Source: Business Register & Employment Survey Growth Areas Overview Turning to more specific areas of growth, approximately 80% of the Information and Communication growth has been driven by Computer Consultancy, 50% of the growth in Business Admin and Support Services is accounted for by the growth in Cleaners11 (Table A.7), and 90% of the Mining, Quarrying and Utilities can be attributed to waste management activities (see Table D.2 for full 2016-20 employment comparison). 11 Note, this growth is likely caused by a commercial cleaning company headquartered in Renfrewshire like G.S. Associates
Page 70
57 There are several areas, such as the General Cleaning of Buildings, Renting and Leasing of Cars and Light Motor Vehicles, Computer Consultancy, Building Support Service Activities, and Medical Nursing Home Activities in which Renfrewshire’s growth is substantially larger than either the GCR or Scotland. Table A.7: 5-digit Employment Breakdown for Absolute Growth Employment Sectors 5-digit SIC 2020 Absolute change 2016-2020 % 2016- 2020 change % Change, GCR % Change, Scotland 81210: General cleaning of buildings 5,000 1,500 43% -7% 48% 62020: Computer consultancy activities 1,750 1,050 150% 34% 37% 84110: General public administration activities 3,000 1,000 50% 28% -1% 77110: Renting and leasing of cars and light motor vehicles 1,000 875 700% 87% 100% 87900: Other residential care activities 2,000 750 60% 10% -5% 82990: Other business support service activities 8,00 550 220% 25% 29% 30300: Manufacture of air and spacecraft and related machinery 1,500 500 50% 72% 20% 86102: Medical nursing home activities 6,00 425 243% -30% -27% 84240: Public order and safety activities 1,000 400 67% 4% 4% 45111: Sale of new cars and light motor vehicles 1,250 350 39% 21% 14% Source: Business Register & Employment Survey. Note: Four of the 10 sectors that have experienced the largest absolute growth between 2016-2020 were also ranked within the top 10 areas for absolute employment in Renfrewshire, Figure A.3. These sectors include: General cleaning of buildings (5,000) Computer consultancy activities (1,750) Other residential care activities (2,000) Manufacturing of air and spacecraft and related machinery (1,500)
Page 71
58 Figure A.3: Top Ten 5-digit SIC codes for Employment (2016 and 2020) Source: Business Register & Employment Survey Employment Forecast The following data is drawn from the Regional Skills Assessment Data Matrix12, which SDS creates based Oxford Economics forecast data. Within Renfrewshire, levels of employment are forecast to grow +3.3% between 2021 and 2024, with growth continuing between 2024 and 2031, albeit at a slower pace with 1.2% growth predicted Through to 2031, the data suggests that Health and Social Care will remain an important source of employment within Renfrewshire, Table A.8. Beyond that, the SDS data suggest that the most significant growth will come from Construction and Financial and Business Services. Compared to Scotland, Renfrewshire will experience proportional greater increases in several sectors including Digital, Financial and Business Services, Creative Industries, and Food and Drink. This underscores the importance of these foundation sectors in providing employment and supporting the employability agenda. 12 Source: Regional Skills Assessments | Skills Development Scotland 1,500 1,500 1,750 1,750 1,750 2,000 2,500 3,000 4,000 5,000 2,000 1,000 2,000 1,500 700 1,250 2,500 2,000 4,000 3,500 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 88990: Other social work activities without… 30300: Manufacture of air and spacecraft and… 47710: Retail sale of clothing in specialised stores 85200: Primary education 62020: Computer consultancy activities 87900: Other residential care activities 47110: Retail sale in non-specialised stores with… 84110: General public administration activities 86101: Hospital activities 81210: General cleaning of buildings 2016 2020
Page 72
59 Table A.8: Employment Forecast by Industry (2021-2031) Key Sector 2021 2031 Absolute change % Change % Change in Scotland Health and Social Care 11,500 12,000 500 4% 7% Construction 4,300 4,700 400 9% 7% Tourism 3,800 4,100 300 8% 8% Engineering 3,700 4,000 300 8% 3% Digital 3,100 3,400 300 10% 4% Financial and Business Service 2,200 2,600 400 18% 9% Creative Industries 1,900 2,100 200 11% 9% Chemical Science 1,200 800 -400 -33% -34% Life Sciences 1,100 1,100 0 0% 5% Early Learning and Childcare 1,000 1,100 100 10% 10% Food and Drink 600 700 100 17% -5% Energy 500 500 0 0% -4% Source: SDS Data Matrix. Note: Key Sectors as selected by SDS. Productivity and Wages Output (GVA) Renfrewshire’s GVA per head has trended upwards, increasing by approximately £9,886 between 2015 (£43,638) and 2019 (£52,381), suggesting that the local economy is becoming more productive, Figure A.4. At its peak in 2017 (£54,969), Renfrewshire’s GVA was greater than both GCR and Scotland, however a substantial drop between 2017-2018 has meant that by 2019, it was slightly below Scotland, but well above the GCR average (£46,471).
Page 73
60 Figure A.4: GVA per head Source: SABS From a sectoral perspective, the Primary Industries, Manufacturing, and Transport and Storage were the most productive sectors in Renfrewshire in 2019 – which reflects a change from the three most productive sectors in 2015, Figure A.5. By far, the largest gain in productivity has occurred in the Primary Industries which increased £81,159 (+147%) between 2015 and 2019, followed by wholesale which increased £23,600 (71%), and Accommodation and Food which increased £14,387 (+90%). Figure A.5: GVA per head by Industry between 2015-2019 Source: Scottish Annual Business Survey. Note, Primary Industries includes agriculture forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, and the extraction of minerals. £30,000 £35,000 £40,000 £45,000 £50,000 £55,000 £60,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Renfrewshire GCR Scotland 0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 Education, human health and social work… Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food service activities Administrative and support service activities Other service activities Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities Wholesale, retail and repairs Construction Information and communication Real estate activities Transport and storage Manufacturing Primary Industries GVA per head (£) 2015 2019
Page 74
61 Median Wages Between 2017 and 2021, median wages at both resident and workplace level have risen by approximately £100 (15%). However, while the increase in resident wages has been gradual, workplace wages remained rather stagnant before increasing £78 between 2020 and 2021. Figure A.6: Resident vs Workplace Median Wage Comparison (£ per week) Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Despite the recent increase, Renfrewshire’s average workplace wage in 2021 was ranked in the bottom of half (5/8) of the GCR local authorities, and below the national average of £622. The highest average workplace wages in the GCR can be found in: Inverclyde = £685 Glasgow City = 642 East Renfrewshire = £629 Demographics and Population In 2020, the total population of Renfrewshire was approximately 175,930, Table A.9. Since 2016, Renfrewshire’s population growth has been equivalent with the GCR, but slightly different to the national average. However, as with Scotland and the GCR, Renfrewshire has experienced its most significant growth (5%) in its pensionable adult population, which is largely driving its overall population growth. £576 £587 £627 £627 £663 £517 £530 £534 £535 £613 £0 £100 £200 £300 £400 £500 £600 £700 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Renfrewshire Resident Wage Renfrewshire Work place Wage
Page 75
62 Table A.9: Population Change between 2016-20 Age Group 2016 population 2020 population % Change % Change in GCR % Change in Scotland Children (0-15) 29,954 30,182 1% 1% 0% Working age (16-64) 113,311 115,055 2% 1% 0% Pensionable age (65+) 32,665 34,153 5% 5% 6% Total 175,930 179,390 2% 2% 1% Source: ONS Population Projections Looking forward up to 2043, Renfrewshire’s population is expected to grow at a slightly faster rate (+4%) than both the GCR (3%) and Scotland (3%), Table A.10. However, while there will be net growth, the expectation is that there will be substantial contraction in the number of children (-9%) and a small contraction of the working age population (-2%) albeit the forecast reduction in working aged people is not as severe as that forecast for the regional and national levels. Table A.10: Population Projections Age group 2018 Population 2043 population Change % Change Renfrewshire Children (0-15) 30,171 27,592 -2,579 -9% Working Age (16-64) 114,331 112,406 -1,925 -2% Pensionable Age (65+) 33,288 45,362 12,074 36% Total 177,790 185,360 7,570 4% GCR Children (0-15) 315,203 287,178 -28,025 -9% Working Age (16-64) 1,206,350 1,172,447 -33,903 -3% Pensionable Age (65+) 312,627 426,201 113,574 36% Total 1,834,180 1,885,826 51,646 3% Scotland Children (0-15) 919,502 823,165 -96,337 -10% Working Age (16-64) 3,492,484 3,361,001 -131,483 -4% Pensionable Age (65+) 1,026,114 1,390,653 364,539 36% Total 5,438,100 5,574,819 136,719 3% Source: NRS Notwithstanding the smaller decline in the working age population, the proportion of working age adults is expected to be approximately 1% lower than the wider GCR, although proportionally, Renfrewshire will have more working age adults than the national average, Figure A.7.
Page 76
63 Figure A.7: Estimate Population Distribution in 2043 Source: NRS Economic Activity Economic activity captures the proportion of the working age activity currently economically active or capable of being active, with a high rate of activity meaning that a high proportion of people are working or are available to work. Following a slight decline, economic activity increased approximately 1% between 2019 and 2020 to a peak of 80.8%, Figure A.8. Economic activity dropped by 3% between 2020 and 2021, which was likely due to the impact of Covid-19. Figure A.8: Levels of Economic Activity (2017-20) Source: Annual Population Survey While Renfrewshire has experienced a substantial increase in the number of its residents classified as inactive, the area has also experienced a 36 % rise in the numbers of economically inactive individuals who want a job, compared to -35% in the GCR and -22% in Scotland, Table A.11. 15% 15% 15% 61% 62% 60% 24% 23% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Renfrewshire GCR Scotland Children (0-15) Working age (16-64) Pensionable age (65+) 79.8% 79.6% 80.6% 80.8% 78.2% 77.0% 77.5% 78.0% 78.5% 79.0% 79.5% 80.0% 80.5% 81.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Page 77
64 The ONS have highlighted that post-pandemic, there has been an increase in the number of people who have left the workforce prematurely, and who do not appear to want to re-join13.The data seems to bear this out in the case of the GCR and Scotland, however the same is not true in Renfrewshire. Table A.11: Economic Activity Rates Between 2017-21 2017 2021 % Change % Change in GCR % Change in Scotland Economic Activity Rate (16-64) 89,500 87,200 -3% -1% -2% Economic Inactivity Rate (16-64) 22,700 24,400 7% 1% 5% Economically Inactive Who Want Job 5,800 7,900 36% -35% -22% Economically Inactive Who Do Not Want Job 16,900 16,500 -2% 12% 13% Source: Annual Population Survey Labour Market and Skills The local skills base is an important determining factor when thinking about future areas for growth in Renfrewshire. Attracting high wage/ high value-added businesses to the area is no doubt beneficial, however if these jobs are not going to Renfrewshire residents, the impact will be more limited. In this respect, Renfrewshire’s skills base is largely equivalent with the national picture, although slightly more skilled than the GCR as a whole, Figure A.9. 13 Will more economic inactivity be a legacy of the pandemic? (parliament.uk)
Page 78
65 Figure A.9: Workforce Qualifications (2021) Source: Annual Population Survey Most of Renfrewshire’s workforce have at least NVQ 1 and 2 qualifications, equivalent to National 4 and 5 qualifications. Similarly, most Renfrewshire adults also have Higher, Advanced Higher and Higher National Certificate qualifications, with 64% possessing an NVQ 3. Compared to the GCR, Renfrewshire has a higher proportion of adults with Higher National Diplomas and Ordinary Degrees, with the number of NVQ 4 qualifications increasing 8% between 201 and 2021, Figure A.10. Figure A.10: Five-year Changing in Qualifications in Renfrewshire (2017-2021) Source: Annual Population survey 7% 7% 86% 79% 64% 50% 7% 10% 83% 76% 63% 48% 6% 8% 86% 80% 65% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % with Other Qualifications NVQ % with No Qualifications NVQ % with NVQ 1 % with NVQ 2 % with NVQ 3 % with NVQ 4 Scotland GCR Renfrewshire 42% 41% 45% 50% 50% 61% 60% 61% 66% 64% 79% 75% 78% 82% 79% 86% 83% 85% 88% 86% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 NVQ 4 NVQ 3 NVQ 2 NVQ 1
Page 79
66 Other than skilled trades, Renfrewshire’s occupational profile is proportionally equivalent to the GCR and Scotland Figure A.11. Figure A.11: Occupational Profile (2021) Source: Annual Population Survey Further and Higher Education The link between Further and Higher Education institutions and the wider economy is significant, as these institutions produce a pipeline of skilled and talented workers and are an important source of innovation and spin-out activity. In Renfrewshire, the main institutions in this space are West College Scotland, the University of Western Scotland, and the University of Strathclyde – given the University’s role in AIMDS, where it is the lead/anchor institution for the National Manufacturing Institution for Scotland, Advanced Forming Research Centre, and the Light Weighting Centre. Further Education Enrolments at West College Scotland fell to their lowest level in 5 years into the 2020/21 academic year, Figure A.12. There were approximately 3000 fewer enrolments in in 2020/21 compared to 2019/20, which was likely to due to the pandemic. 10% 24% 15% 10% 5% 10% 10% 6% 9% 8% 23% 16% 10% 8% 10% 10% 5% 10% 9% 24% 15% 10% 9% 9% 8% 5% 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Managers, Directors and Senior Officials Professional Occupations Associate Prof & Tech Occupations Administrative and Secretarial Occupations Skilled Trades Occupations Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations Sales and Customer Service Occupations Process, Plant and Machine Operatives Elementary Occupations Scotland GCR Renfrewshire
Page 80
67 Figure A.12: West College Scotland Registrations Source: Infact database The ten most common courses by registration appear to reflect the make-up of Renfrewshire’s business and employment base, indicating that there is awareness of the types of opportunities that are available locally, Table A.12. For instance, the largest industry for employment is Health, covering employment in a health, residential, and social care settings, and in 2020/21, around 6,452 individuals enrolled in health, care, and social work courses. Table A.12: Ten Most Common Course Registrations in 2020/21 Course 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Health Care Management/Health Studies 3,524 3,180 3,731 3,712 3,656 Caring Skills 0 54 1,324 2,448 1,970 Business (general) 1,149 1,342 1,262 1,801 1,195 Hair/Personal Care Services 1,422 1,374 1,209 1,338 1,183 Construction 649 883 875 940 1,179 Electrical Engineering 823 716 721 589 994 Personal and Self Development 2,204 3,138 1,437 999 957 Management (general) 40 136 822 958 954 Social / Family / Community Work 0 1,046 1,046 826 826 Using Software 71 61 169 242 672 Source: Infact Indeed, the college has several industry partners including Babcock, NHS Scotland, and the Scottish Leather Group. 25081 28716 27287 27615 24523 22000 23000 24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000 30000 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Page 81
68 For example, with the college worked with the Scottish Leather group to deliver the Apprenticeship Academy, which resulted in 12 in-house assessors being trained and 20 individuals gaining SVQ2 qualifications. Higher Education Within the GCR, the University of Strathclyde is particularly well placed to deliver a pipeline of skilled graduates, with engineering and technology enrolments accounting for approximately 21% of its 24,450 enrolments in 2021/21, Table A.13. Beyond that, the University of the West of Scotland and Glasgow Caledonian registered 25% and 35% of their respective enrolments in subjects allied to medicine in 2021 – equating to roughly 11,000 students. Table A.13: University Enrolments in 2020/21 Subject University of the West of Scotland Glasgow Caledonian University University of Glasgow University of Strathclyde Scotland Subjects allied to Medicine 25% 35% 4% 6% 12% Biological and Sport Science 7% 1% 6% 2% 5% Engineering and Technology 4% 9% 8% 21% 8% Computing 7% 7% 6% 4% 6% Social Sciences 14% 7% 10% 6% 9% Business and Management 24% 23% 11% 16% 14% Education and Teaching 6% 0% 9% 13% 6% Source: HESA. Note: Subject areas representing less than 4% of the University of the West of Scotland’s enrolments not displayed but include: Design, Creative, and Performing Arts (4%); Psychology (3%); Media, Journalism, and Communications (2%); Physical Sciences (2%); and Combined and General studies (1%)
Page 82
69 Conclusions The main conclusions form the economic analysis are highlighted below. Renfrewshire’s economy is mixed with strong activity across various sectors While there has been growth in the number of registered businesses, the number of people in employment has fallen o Peak employment occurred in 2018, so this trend pre-dates the pandemic There has been strong business growth in the manufacturing industry, alongside business and employment growth in the creative industries and the services sector o These are areas that are likely to further benefit from developments like AMIDS, and the broader pivot towards the green economy The picture for Renfrewshire’s foundation sectors has been mixed o Health and social care, which is the largest sector based on employment, has remained static and will remain important as older age population grows o Retail has remained static at a high level, although there has been strong growth in the trade of new and used motor vehicles, alongside a sharp decline in several wholesale subsectors o Construction has experienced a significant decrease in the number of registered employees, although there has been slight growth in the number of registered businesses Renfrewshire’s productivity has been increasing over time, with productivity gains across numerous sectors, but most significantly, in primary industries and manufacturing The number of Renfrewshire residents classified as economically active dropped by approximately 3% between 2020-21 o However, unlike the GCR and Scotland, many of the new economically inactive residents want to re-entre the labour market FE and HE institutions in Renfrewshire and the wider GCR run several courses that match key traditional and growth sectors in the local economy
Page 83
70 Appendix B: Stakeholder Consultees Name Organisation Role Ross Nimmo Glasgow Airport Head of Planning and Development Dave Tudor MMIC Sarah Jardine NMIS CEO Grant Edmondson Frasers Property Hillington Park Marcus Dean Abbey Mill Business Centre Matt Strachan North Ayrshire Council Paul Zealey SDS GCR strategy and skills lead across portfolios Liz Connelly West College Scotland Principal Jonny Mone UWS Head of Business Innovation James Lang Scottish Leather Group CEO Stephen Frew Scottish Enterprise Economist Colette Saez Renfrewshire Council Economic Development Euan Shearer Renfrewshire Council Economic Regeneration Officer Ruth Cooper Renfrewshire Council Economic Development Gary Kenyon Renfrewshire Council Business Gateway/Renfrewshire Council Robert Kinniburgh Renfrewshire Council Business Gateway Alasdair Morrison Renfrewshire Council Head of Economy and Development Barbara Walker Renfrewshire Council City Deal Jonathan Golby Peak Scientific CEO Jonathon Garnett Doosan Babcock Head of Innovation Gillian Winning Terumo Aortic Hisashi Kuboyama FSB West of Scotland Development Manager Bob Grant Renfrewshire Chamber CEO Stuart Fraser City Gate Construction Ltd Yvonne Devlin Curtis Moore Ian Pediani Big Bear Bakery Emily Irons-Young Ingram Bros Brian Toward Wholesale Domestic Stephen McGuire APH Hydraulic Engineering Ltd Claire Donnelly Aspire Industrial Services Phil Reilly Consult Lifts Carolyn Moir Grant All Staff Mhairi Gardiner Renfrewshire Council Green Economy Officer
Page 84
71 Appendix C: Policy Review Additional Details The analysis of growth sectors must be considered within the context of the current policy direction and priorities. The main policy drivers and their implications at local, regional, national level as well as sectors are considered further below. Relevant documents that were reviewed included: Renfrewshire Economic Strategy Renfrewshire Economic Recovery Plan Glasgow City Region Economic Strategy Scotland's National Strategy for Economic Transformation Scottish Government Programme for Government Infrastructure Investment Plan National Digital Strategy City Deal Projects Shared Prosperity Fund and Levelling Up Fund At a regional level, the strategies focus on Renfrewshire’s existing key sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and transport and storage, as well as emerging sectors in creative industries, tourism and care. For example, the success of Renfrewshire’s Economic Strategy will, in part, be measured by progress to grow the manufacturing sector by 30% in terms of GVA – one of six strategic ambitions to be achieved by 2030. The importance of manufacturing, particularly with Renfrewshire as a key location, is also reflected at a GCR and national level. For example, manufacturing is also highlighted as a high growth sector within the national strategies, which can address challenges around productivity to boost competitiveness and attract inward investment. Thus, the AMIDS which is Scotland’s centre for manufacturing innovation is viewed as a strategically significant national site for the sector. The potential of AMIDS to attract greater foreign direct investment, which has been a challenge for Renfrewshire, is a priority of the Renfrewshire Economic Strategy and is also noted in the Glasgow City Region Economic Strategy: “AMIDS acts as a magnet for advanced manufacturing companies to locate and invest in Scotland. The 52-hectare site is already home to the National Manufacturing Institute Scotland (NMIS) and the Medicines Manufacturing Innovation Centre, CPI, with Boeing choosing AMIDS for its first ever research and development project in Scotland.”
Page 85
72 As well as AMIDS, there are a number of significant investment and infrastructure projects which will support business growth in other sectors. For example, there has been significant investment into creative and cultural programmes (e.g. Paisley Museum and Art Galleries). Given the strengths of the local economy in industries such as manufacturing, construction and transport and storage, recovery strategies and post-COVID strategies, such as the Renfrewshire Economic Recovery Plan, note the relative vulnerability of Renfrewshire to external economic shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and rising costs: “The Fraser of Allender Institute’s view is that the specific characteristics of the Renfrewshire economy place it at a relative disadvantage in the current pandemic context. Due to the concentration of activity in manufacturing; international exports; aviation; retail; construction; and transportation / logistics; the local economy is likely to require targeted interventions and flexibility in how national policy is applied in order to see a full recovery.” However, there is also recognition that the Renfrewshire economy is well-placed to align to and take the lead on the opportunities presented by major shifts in the economy such as a just transition to net zero and digital transformation. It is important to note that these shifts are intertwined. For example, the Renfrewshire Economic Recovery Plan highlights that there is a “need to adopt actions that support a ‘green’ recovery.” These are defining features and objectives of NMIS which aims to sector adopt new manufacturing techniques14 (e.g. Digital Factory 2050 which promotes Industry 4.0) and provide leadership, build collaborations and enhance capability to influence adaptation and exploit manufacturing opportunities to boost Scotland’s transition to a net-zero emissions economy by 2045. Within the SDI’s Inward Investment Plan, there are nine key opportunity areas: energy transition, decarbonisation of transport; software and IT; digital financial services; digital business services; space; healthtech; transformation of chemical industries; food and drink innovation. The GCR Economic Strategy notes that the region contributes to all nine areas. Wider themes emphasised throughout most of the strategies, particularly in recovery and post- COVID strategies, include the transition to net zero, digital transformation, Fair Work, and wellbeing economy. 14 For example, the adoption and application of automation, light-weighting, digital manufacturing technology and supply chain development.
Page 86
73 These are well aligned to potential growth opportunities for Renfrewshire with significant investment into innovation within these sectors – health and social care, green jobs, and digital transformation (cross-sectoral). By focusing on these themes, the strategies are signalling the importance of adopting an inclusive economic growth approach to address structural challenges and major fundamental shifts in the economy. For example, the national digital strategy, ‘A Changing Nation: How Scotland will Thrive in a Digital World’, notes the progress of sectors that are “are “already moving to embrace wider adoption of data driven innovation” – these include energy, tourism, fintech, health and care, and the public sector. With health and care identified as a growth sector in the Renfrewshire Economic Strategy, the development of the Medicines Manufacturing Innovation Centre (MMIC) as well as close proximity to the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital which has a research and innovation focus, there is scope to explore further the opportunities presented by data driven innovation in health and social care sector (i.e. digital health).
Page 87
74 Appendix D: Data Review Appendix D.1: List of Absolute Business Change (2017-2021) 2021 2017-21 Change % Change % GCR Change % Scotland Change 53202: Unlicensed Carriers 75 35 88% 67% 108% 56103: Take away food shops and mobile food stands 130 25 24% 13% 10% 41100: Development of building projects 45 20 80% 15% 7% 68209 : Letting and operating of own or leased real estate (other than Housing Association real estate and conference and exhibition services) n.e.c. 90 20 29% 9% 10% 62020: Computer consultancy activities 135 20 17% -13% -17% 96020: Hairdressing and other beauty treatment 150 20 15% 10% 6% 82990: Other business support service activities nec 160 20 14% 5% 7% 70100: Activities of head offices 20 15 300% 55% 44% 47910: Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet 35 15 75% 196% 98% 47760: Retail sale of flowers, plants, seeds, fertilisers, pet animals and pet food in specialised stores 20 10 100% 4% 0% 68310: Real estate agencies 30 10 50% 13% 12% 25620: Machining 35 10 40% 17% 15% 56102: Unlicensed restaurants and cafes 40 10 33% 28% 19% 81210: General cleaning of buildings 45 10 29% 14% 8% 49410: Freight transport by road 70 10 17% 11% 5% 45200: Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 105 10 11% 8% 8% 25110: Manufacture of metal structures and parts of structures 10 5 100% 0% 7% 33160: Repair and maintenance of aircraft and spacecraft 10 5 100% 100% 22% 35110: Production of electricity 10 5 100% 23% 17% 46320: Wholesale of meat and meat products 10 5 100% 0% -4% 46342: Wholesale of wine, beer, spirits and other alcoholic beverages 10 5 100% 25% 13% 52290: Other transportation support activities 10 5 100% 23% 0% 64999: Other financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding, (not including security dealing on own account and factoring) n.e.c. 10 5 100% 58% 24% 66220: Activities of insurance agents and brokers 10 5 100% 0% 5% 70210: Public relations and communication activities 10 5 100% 11% 26% 93130: Fitness facilities 10 5 100% 110% 56% 93290: Other amusement and recreation activities 10 5 100% 17% 13% 95110: Repair of computers and peripheral equipment 10 5 100% 6% 4% 32990: Other manufacturing nec 15 5 50% 0% 19% 47530: Retail sale of carpets, rugs, wall and floor coverings in specialised stores 15 5 50% 13% 2% 47710: Retail sale of clothing in specialised stores 15 5 50% 8% 0%
Page 88
75 47782: Retail sale by opticians 15 5 50% -10% -4% 93199: Other sports activities (not including activities of racehorse owners) nec 15 5 50% 43% 17% 94990: Activities of other membership organisations nec 15 5 50% 0% 3% 96010: Washing and (dry-)cleaning of textile and fur products 15 5 50% 19% 10% 47190: Other retail sale in non-specialised stores 20 5 33% 14% 1% 47599: Retail sale of furniture, lighting equipment and other household articles (other than musical instruments) nec, in speci 20 5 33% 3% -4% 16230: Manufacture of other builders' carpentry and joinery 25 5 25% 19% 14% 43290: Other construction installation 25 5 25% 23% 19% 01500: Mixed farming 30 5 20% 10% 4% 74100: Specialised design activities 35 5 17% 5% 2% 81300: Landscape service activities 35 5 17% 9% 3% 43999: Specialised construction activities (other than scaffold erection) nec 40 5 14% 21% 16% 71122: Engineering related scientific and technical consulting activities 50 5 11% -3% -3% 56101: Licensed restaurants 55 5 10% 12% 8% 43220: Plumbing, heat and air-conditioning installation 90 5 6% 11% 8% 01420: Raising of other cattle and buffaloes 5 0 0% 50% 23% 01450: Raising of sheep and goats 20 0 0% -5% -8% 02100: Silviculture and other forestry activities 5 0 0% 0% 2% 03110: Marine fishing 5 0 0% 67% 10% 10710: Manufacture of bread; manufacture of fresh pastry goods and cakes 5 0 0% 0% -2% 13300: Finishing of textiles 5 0 0% -33% 11% 13921: Manufacture of soft furnishings 5 0 0% -22% -5% 18129: Printing (other than printing of newspapers and printing on labels and tags) nec 15 0 0% -3% -10% 22230: Manufacture of builders ware of plastic 5 0 0% 0% 8% 23700: Cutting, shaping and finishing of stone 5 0 0% -20% -5% 25120: Manufacture of doors and windows of metal 5 0 0% -17% 0% 25610: Treatment and coating of metals 5 0 0% -29% -18% 26110: Manufacture of electronic components 5 0 0% 0% 0% 26511: Manufacture of electronic instruments and appliances for measuring, testing, and navigation, except industrial process control equipment 5 0 0% -25% 0% 28220: Manufacture of lifting and handling equipment 5 0 0% 0% -8% 28290: Manufacture of other general-purpose machinery nec 5 0 0% 0% -8% 31020: Manufacture of kitchen furniture 5 0 0% 33% 20% 31090: Manufacture of other furniture 5 0 0% 22% 14% 32500: Manufacture of medical and dental instruments and supplies 5 0 0% 0% -4%
Page 89
76 33120: Repair of machinery 15 0 0% -4% 0% 33200: Installation of industrial machinery and equipment 5 0 0% -7% -19% 38320: Recovery of sorted materials 5 0 0% 0% 0% 39000: Remediation activities and other waste management services 5 0 0% 50% 25% 41201: Construction of commercial buildings 20 0 0% 16% 7% 42110: Construction of roads and motorways 10 0 0% 0% 14% 42120: Construction of railways and underground railways 5 0 0% 70% 23% 42210: Construction of utility projects for fluids 5 0 0% -40% -36% 43110: Demolition 5 0 0% -25% 0% 43120: Site preparation 5 0 0% 10% 22% 43310: Plastering 10 0 0% -4% 3% 43342: Glazing 5 0 0% 10% 14% 43910: Roofing activities 20 0 0% 22% 17% 43991: Scaffold erection 10 0 0% 9% 7% 45112: Sale of used cars and light motor vehicles 20 0 0% 15% 4% 45310: Wholesale trade of motor vehicle parts and accessories 5 0 0% 0% -3% 45320: Retail trade of motor vehicle parts and accessories 5 0 0% -7% 0% 45400: Sale, maintenance and repair of motorcycles and related parts and accessories 5 0 0% 0% -10% 46130: Agents involved in the sale of timber and building materials 5 0 0% 0% -6% 46160: Agents involved in the sale of textiles, clothing, fur, footwear and leather goods 5 0 0% -17% 0% 46170: Agents involved in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco 5 0 0% 60% 20% 46180: Agents specialised in the sale of other particular products 5 0 0% -7% -18% 46190: Agents involved in the sale of a variety of goods 5 0 0% 80% 33% 46310: Wholesale of fruit and vegetables 5 0 0% 14% -4% 46390: Non-specialised wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco 10 0 0% -11% 0% 46420: Wholesale of clothing and footwear 5 0 0% -8% 0% 46450: Wholesale of perfume and cosmetics 5 0 0% 0% 38% 46470: Wholesale of furniture, carpets and lighting equipment 5 0 0% 14% -5% 46520: Wholesale of electronic and telecommunications equipment and parts 5 0 0% 0% -17% 46610: Wholesale of agricultural machinery, equipment and supplies 5 0 0% 0% 8% 46690: Wholesale of other machinery and equipment 20 0 0% -9% -10% 46730: Wholesale of wood, construction materials and sanitary equipment 10 0 0% 11% -2% 46740: Wholesale of hardware, plumbing and heating equipment and supplies 10 0 0% -13% 0%
Page 90
77 46750: Wholesale of chemical products 5 0 0% 25% -12% 47220: Retail sale of meat and meat products in specialised stores 15 0 0% -8% -7% 47240: Retail sale of bread, cakes, flour confectionery and sugar confectionery in specialised stores 5 0 0% -17% -5% 47290: Other retail sale of food in specialised stores 5 0 0% -19% -13% 47300: Retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores 5 0 0% -27% -15% 47520: Retail sale of hardware, paints and glass in specialised stores 20 0 0% -7% -1% 47730: Dispensing chemist in specialised stores 5 0 0% 10% -7% 47770: Retail sale of watches and jewellery in specialised stores 5 0 0% -17% -8% 47799: Retail sale of second-hand goods (other than antiques and antique books) in stores 5 0 0% -13% 7% 47890: Retail sale via stalls and markets of other goods 5 0 0% 67% 14% 49319: Urban, suburban or metropolitan area passenger land transport other than railway transportation by underground, metro and similar systems 5 0 0% -8% -14% 49320: Taxi operation 20 0 0% 3% -4% 49390: Other passenger land transport nec 5 0 0% 11% -2% 52219: Other service activities incidental to land transportation, nec (not including operation of rail freight terminals, passenger facilities at railway stations or passenger facilities at bus and coach stations) 5 0 0% -10% 8% 52230: Service activities incidental to air transportation 5 0 0% 100% -8% 53100: Postal activities under universal service obligation 5 0 0% 11% -9% 55100: Hotels and similar accommodation 15 0 0% 6% -1% 55209: Other holiday and other short-stay accommodation (not including holiday centres and villages or youth hostels) nec 5 0 0% 50% 17% 55900: Other accommodation 5 0 0% 0% -6% 42990: Construction of other civil engineering projects nec 30 0 0% -9% -7% 43210: Electrical installation 110 0 0% 2% 3% 56210: Event catering activities 20 0 0% 19% 11% 56290: Other food service activities 5 0 0% 67% 8% 56301: Licensed clubs 15 0 0% -9% -14% 43320: Joinery installation 85 0 0% 2% 8% 58190: Other publishing activities 5 0 0% 33% -3% 59111: Motion picture production activities 5 0 0% 5% 17% 59112: Video production activities 5 0 0% 10% 30% 59113: Television programme production activities 10 0 0% 30% 18% 60200: Television programming and broadcasting activities 5 0 0% 0% 14% 61900: Other telecommunications activities 5 0 0% 6% 7%
Page 91
78 43330: Floor and wall covering 25 0 0% 5% 4% 43341: Painting 40 0 0% 13% 4% 63110: Data processing, hosting and related activities 5 0 0% 8% -3% 63990: Other information service activities nec 5 0 0% 8% 27% 64192: Building societies 5 0 0% 0% 0% 64202: Activities of production holding companies 5 0 0% 20% 28% 65300: Pension funding 5 0 0% -6% -10% 46900: Non-specialised wholesale trade 25 0 0% 5% -7% 66290: Other activities auxiliary to insurance and pension funding 5 0 0% 0% -3% 68201: Renting and operating of Housing Association real estate 10 0 0% -14% -16% 66190: Other activities auxiliary to financial services, except insurance and pension funding 35 0 0% 9% 5% 68320: Management of real estate on a fee or contract basis 20 0 0% 7% 13% 69101: Barristers at law 5 0 0% 7% -7% 86210: General medical practice activities 35 0 0% -15% -14% 69109: Activities of patent and copyright agents; other legal activities (other than those of barristers and solicitors) nec 5 0 0% 18% 0% 86230: Dental practice activities 30 0 0% 0% -6% 69202: Bookkeeping activities 10 0 0% 5% 18% 70221: Financial management 15 0 0% -6% -10% 86900: Other human health activities 25 0 0% 13% 7% 71112: Urban planning and landscape architectural activities 5 0 0% -14% -4% 88910: Child day-care activities 40 0 0% -2% -3% 88990: Other social work activities without accommodation nec 30 0 0% -5% 0% 73110: Advertising agencies 20 0 0% 5% -2% 73200: Market research and public opinion polling 5 0 0% 0% 0% 74201: Portrait photographic activities 5 0 0% 0% -8% 74209: Other photographic activities (not including portrait and other specialist photography and film processing) nec 5 0 0% -8% -11% 74901: Environmental consulting activities 10 0 0% 0% 17% 74902: Quantity surveying activities 10 0 0% -4% -5% 75000: Veterinary activities 5 0 0% -21% -6% 77110: Renting and leasing of cars and light motor vehicles 5 0 0% 15% 24% 77320: Renting and leasing of construction and civil engineering machinery and equipment 10 0 0% -6% -8% 78109: Activities of employment placement agencies (other than motion picture, television and other theatrical casting) nec 10 0 0% 5% 2% 80100: Private security activities 5 0 0% 23% 5% 80200: Security systems service activities 5 0 0% -8% 11% 81291: Disinfecting and extermination services 5 0 0% 0% 25%
Page 92
79 81299: Cleaning services (other than disinfecting and extermination services) nec 15 0 0% 12% 4% 82920: Packaging activities 5 0 0% 0% 10% 85320: Technical and vocational secondary education 5 0 0% 14% 20% 85510: Sports and recreation education 5 0 0% 44% 31% 85520: Cultural education 5 0 0% 0% 16% 85600: Educational support activities 5 0 0% 13% 17% 86220: Specialist medical practice activities 10 0 0% 35% 36% 88100: Social work activities without accommodation for the elderly and disabled 10 0 0% 8% 6% 90010: Performing arts 5 0 0% 3% -1% 90030: Artistic creation 10 0 0% 3% -4% 93110: Operation of sports facilities 10 0 0% 16% 14% 93191: Activities of racehorse owners 5 0 0% 33% 8% 95220: Repair of household appliances and home and garden equipment 5 0 0% 25% 14% 95240: Repair of furniture and home furnishings 5 0 0% 0% -9% 96030: Funeral and related activities 5 0 0% 50% 18% 47110: Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating 110 -5 -4% -1% -4% 56302: Public houses and bars 70 -5 -7% -6% -8% 96090: Other personal service activities nec 65 -5 -7% -17% -18% 01410: Raising of dairy cattle 35 -5 -13% -11% -7% 93120: Activities of sport clubs 35 -5 -13% -3% -6% 43390: Other building completion and finishing 30 -5 -14% 0% -6% 69102: Solicitors 30 -5 -14% -6% -5% 85590: Other education nec 30 -5 -14% 2% -5% 94910: Activities of religious organisations 30 -5 -14% 2% 1% 47789: Other retail sale of new goods in specialised stores (other than by opticians or commercial art galleries), nec 20 -5 -20% -6% -7% 71200: Technical testing and analysis 20 -5 -20% -26% -26% 71111: Architectural activities 15 -5 -25% -15% -7% 47640: Retail sale of sporting equipment in specialised stores 10 -5 -33% -5% -2% 47990: Other retail sale not in stores, stalls or markets 10 -5 -33% -19% -13% 62090: Other information technology and computer service activities 10 -5 -33% 6% -8% 78200: Temporary employment agency activities 10 -5 -33% -3% -7% 82110: Combined office administrative service activities 10 -5 -33% 25% 16% 45111: Sale of new cars and light motor vehicles 5 -5 -50% -27% -22% 46499: Wholesale of household goods (other than musical instruments) nec 5 -5 -50% -13% -13% 47210: Retail sale of fruit and vegetables in specialised stores 5 -5 -50% -22% -17% 47250: Retail sale of beverages in specialised stores 5 -5 -50% -8% -4%
Page 93
80 47260: Retail sale of tobacco products in specialised stores 5 -5 -50% -15% -18% 52103: Operation of warehousing and storage facilities for land transport activities of division 49 5 -5 -50% -59% -24% 72190: Other research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering 5 -5 -50% 0% 2% 77390: Renting and leasing of other machinery, equipment and tangible goods nec 5 -5 -50% 6% 5% 81221: Window cleaning services 5 -5 -50% 22% 21% 87900: Other residential care activities 5 -5 -50% 0% 3% 01110: Growing of cereals (except rice), leguminous crops and oil seeds 0 -5 -100% -33% -8% 01610: Support activities for crop production 0 -5 -100% 14% 25% 01629: Support activities for animal production (other than farm animal boarding and care) nec 0 -5 -100% -33% 14% 11050: Manufacture of beer 0 -5 -100% 0% 14% 14190: Manufacture of other wearing apparel and accessories 0 -5 -100% -25% 0% 15110: Tanning and dressing of leather; dressing and dyeing of fur 0 -5 -100% -100% -50% 17230: Manufacture of paper stationery 0 -5 -100% -100% -25% 18130: Pre-press and pre-media services 0 -5 -100% -20% -14% 25990: Manufacture of other fabricated metal products nec 0 -5 -100% -27% -7% 30110: Building of ships and floating structures 0 -5 -100% -75% -32% 32300: Manufacture of sports goods 0 -5 -100% -67% -10% 33110: Repair of fabricated metal products 0 -5 -100% -57% -14% 33140: Repair of electrical equipment 0 -5 -100% 29% 29% 42220: Construction of utility projects for electricity and telecommunications 0 -5 -100% 20% 19% 42910: Construction of water projects 0 -5 -100% 0% 50% 46150: Agents involved in the sale of furniture, household goods, hardware and ironmongery 0 -5 -100% -17% 17% 46760: Wholesale of other intermediate products 0 -5 -100% -14% -13% 46770: Wholesale of waste and scrap 0 -5 -100% -33% -5% 47540: Retail sale of electrical household appliances in specialised stores 0 -5 -100% -25% -28% 47721: Retail sale of footwear in specialised stores 0 -5 -100% 0% -24% 47791: Retail sale of antiques including antique books, in stores 0 -5 -100% -75% 0% 62030: Computer facilities management activities 0 -5 -100% -67% -11% 64203: Activities of construction holding companies 0 -5 -100% 50% 14% 64209: Activities of other holding companies (not including agricultural, production, construction, distribution and financial services holding companies) n.e.c 0 -5 -100% 0% 28% 74202: Other specialist photography (not including portrait photography) 0 -5 -100% -33% -7% 77120: Renting and leasing of trucks 0 -5 -100% -20% -15% 77210: Renting and leasing of recreational and sports goods 0 -5 -100% -50% -23%
Page 94
81 81229: Building and industrial cleaning activities (other than window cleaning, specialised cleaning and furnace and cleaning services) n.e.c. 0 -5 -100% -67% 25% 82200: Activities of call centres 0 -5 -100% -60% -33% 86101: Hospital activities 0 -5 -100% -33% -40% 94120: Activities of professional membership organisations 0 -5 -100% -25% 0% 41202: Construction of domestic buildings 55 -10 -15% 13% 4% 69201: Accounting, and auditing activities 40 -10 -20% -11% -10% 47620: Retail sale of newspapers and stationery in specialised stores 5 -10 -67% -17% -26% 33170: Repair and maintenance of other transport equipment 0 -10 -100% 29% 47% 74909: Other professional, scientific and technical activities (not including environmental consultancy or quantity surveying) 50 -15 -23% -17% -15% 62012: Business and domestic software development 25 -15 -38% -17% -5% 71121: Engineering design activities for industrial process and production 35 -20 -36% -23% -15% 70229: Management consultancy activities (other than financial management) 200 -35 -15% -13% -16% 71129: Other engineering activities (not including engineering design for industrial process and production or engineering related scientific and technical consulting activities) 130 -40 -24% -24% -20% Source: UK Business counts
Page 95
82 Appendix D.2: List of Absolute Employment Change (2016-2020) 2020 2016-20 Change % Change % GCR Change % Scotland Change 81210: General cleaning of buildings 5000 1500 43% -7% 48% 62020: Computer consultancy activities 1750 1050 150% 34% 37% 84110: General public administration activities 3000 1000 50% 28% -1% 77110: Renting and leasing of cars and light motor vehicles 1000 875 700% 87% 100% 87900: Other residential care activities 2000 750 60% 10% -5% 82990: Other business support service activities nec 800 550 220% 25% 29% 30300: Manufacture of air and spacecraft and related machinery 1500 500 50% 72% 20% 86102: Medical nursing home activities 600 425 243% -30% -27% 84240: Public order and safety activities 1000 400 67% 4% 4% 45111: Sale of new cars and light motor vehicles 1250 350 39% 21% 14% 86900: Other human health activities 1250 350 39% 9% 11% 85200: Primary education 1750 250 17% 19% 16% 56101: Licensed restaurants 1250 250 25% 2% -3% 45112: Sale of used cars and light motor vehicles 400 225 129% 108% 50% 47190: Other retail sale in non-specialised stores 1000 200 25% 5% 0% 80200: Security systems service activities 1000 200 25% -3% 0% 95110: Repair of computers and peripheral equipment 1000 200 25% 6% -17% 49410: Freight transport by road 600 200 50% 28% 19% 85320: Technical and vocational secondary education 600 200 50% 5% 0% 87100: Residential nursing care activities 600 200 50% 9% -5% 47520: Retail sale of hardware, paints and glass in specialised stores 500 200 67% 66% 80% 38210: Treatment and disposal of non-hazardous waste 450 200 80% 39% 40% 53202: Unlicensed Carriers 450 200 80% 37% 13% 96010: Washing and (dry-)cleaning of textile and fur products 225 180 400% 44% -11% 81100: Combined facilities support activities 400 175 78% -16% -19% 74909: Other professional, scientific and technical activities (not including environmental consultancy or quantity surveying) 500 150 43% -4% -17% 87300: Residential care activities for the elderly and disabled 450 150 50% 39% 24% 68320: Management of real estate on a fee or contract basis 200 150 300% 9% -17% 47300: Retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores 175 150 600% 126% 125% 15120: Manufacture of luggage, handbags and the like, saddlery and harness 150 140 1400% 350% 33% 91011: Library activities 150 140 1400% 31% 0% 85310: General secondary education 1000 100 11% 3% 3%
Page 96
83 47599: Retail sale of furniture, lighting equipment and other household articles (other than musical instruments) nec 700 100 17% 54% 67% 71129: Other engineering activities (not including engineering design for industrial process and production or engineering related scientific and technical consulting activities) 600 100 20% 11% 4% 84250: Fire service activities 300 100 50% -18% 17% 61900: Other telecommunications activities 225 100 80% 9% 9% 27400: Manufacture of electric lighting equipment 200 100 100% -1% 0% 46210: Wholesale of grain, unmanufactured tobacco, seeds and animal feeds 100 100 - -31% -54% 33170: Repair and maintenance of other transport equipment 100 95 1900% 107% 67% 47530: Retail sale of carpets, rugs, wall and floor coverings in specialised stores 125 85 213% 168% 150% 25620: Machining 250 75 43% 30% 25% 75000: Veterinary activities 175 75 75% 30% 40% 69109: Activities of patent and copyright agents; other legal activities (other than those of barristers and solicitors) nec 150 75 100% 12% 0% 10822: Manufacture of sugar confectionery 100 60 150% 39% 43% 17230: Manufacture of paper stationery 75 55 275% 325% 17% 65110: Life insurance 75 55 275% 124% -11% 49319: Urban, suburban or metropolitan area passenger land transport other than railway transportation by underground, metro and similar systems 500 50 11% -21% -10% 56103: Take away food shops and mobile food stands 500 50 11% 3% 0% 86210: General medical practice activities 450 50 13% 22% 13% 46390: Non-specialised wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco 350 50 17% 6% -13% 94990: Activities of other membership organisations 225 50 29% -18% 0% 20420: Manufacture of perfumes and toilet preparations 200 50 33% 15% 40% 39000: Remediation activities and other waste management services 200 50 33% 142% 200% 45310: Wholesale trade of motor vehicle parts and accessories 200 50 33% 42% 43% 47760: Retail sale of flowers, plants, seeds, fertilisers, pet animals and pet food in specialised stores 200 50 33% 3% 20% 49320: Taxi operation 200 50 33% 22% 14% 46730: Wholesale of wood, construction materials and sanitary equipment 175 50 40% -8% 0% 16230: Manufacture of other builders' carpentry and joinery 125 50 67% 29% 0% 93290: Other amusement and recreation activities 125 50 67% 84% 56% 45400: Sale, maintenance and repair of motorcycles and related parts and accessories 50 45 900% 38% 29% 43991: Scaffold erection 75 40 114% 9% -17%
Page 97
84 47650: Retail sale of games and toys in specialised stores 75 35 88% -6% -25% 35110: Production of electricity 45 35 350% 160% 40% 63990: Other information service activities nec 45 30 200% 118% 108% 46180: Agents specialised in the sale of other particular products 30 30 - 391% 256% 68201: Renting and operating of Housing Association real estate 250 25 11% 0% 11% 33120: Repair of machinery 225 25 13% 51% 20% 52219: Other service activities incidental to land transportation, nec (not including operation of rail freight terminals, passenger facilities at railway stations or passenger facilities at bus and coach stations) 200 25 14% 10% 0% 56290: Other food service activities 200 25 14% -22% -13% 81300: Landscape service activities 200 25 14% 37% 0% 46740: Wholesale of hardware, plumbing and heating equipment and supplies 125 25 25% -8% 20% 77390: Renting and leasing of other machinery, equipment and tangible goods nec 125 25 25% 11% 0% 66190: Other activities auxiliary to financial services, except insurance and pension funding 100 25 33% 5% 43% 31090: Manufacture of other furniture 75 25 50% -21% -43% 45320: Retail trade of motor vehicle parts and accessories 75 25 50% 80% 100% 46450: Wholesale of perfume and cosmetics 75 25 50% -6% 0% 74100: Specialised design activities 50 20 67% 11% 13% 46130: Agents involved in the sale of timber and building materials 30 20 200% 1025% 567% 14120: Manufacture of workwear 20 20 - #DIV/0! 50% 35230: Trade of gas through mains 20 20 - -62% -50% 42130: Construction of bridges and tunnels 20 20 - 33% -75% 46170: Agents involved in the sale of food, beverages and tobacco 20 20 - 700% 500% 46711: Wholesale of petroleum and petroleum products 20 20 - 288% 25% 58290: Other software publishing 20 20 - 67% 71% 79120: Tour operator activities 20 20 - -37% -40% 63110: Data processing, hosting and related activities 35 15 75% 93% 220% 70221: Financial management 35 15 75% 10% 17% 96040: Physical well-being activities 25 15 150% 0% -29% 82110: Combined office administrative service activities 20 15 300% 34% 17% 85510: Sports and recreation education 20 15 300% 49% 50% 68100: Buying and selling of own real estate 15 15 - 81% 50% 10110: Processing and preserving of meat 50 10 25% 29% 0% 73110: Advertising agencies 50 10 25% 9% 0% 25120: Manufacture of doors and windows of metal 40 10 33% 47% 25% 25610: Treatment and coating of metals 40 10 33% 10% -20%
Page 98
85 10520: Manufacture of ice cream 30 10 50% 41% 56% 20510: Manufacture of explosives 30 10 50% 0% 14% 84130: Regulation of and contribution to more efficient operation of businesses 30 10 50% 10% 33% 86220: Specialist medical practice activities 30 10 50% 26% 25% 33140: Repair of electrical equipment 20 10 100% 218% 78% 51210: Freight air transport 20 10 100% 100% -33% 85600: Educational support activities 20 10 100% 7% 20% 62030: Computer facilities management activities 15 10 200% -62% 60% 16240: Manufacture of wooden containers 10 10 - 4% 0% 17290: Manufacture of other articles of paper and paperboard 10 10 - 77% 67% 20412: Manufacture of cleaning and polishing preparations 10 10 - 20% -50% 27200: Manufacture of batteries and accumulators 10 10 - #DIV/0! 400% 28960: Manufacture of plastics and rubber machinery 10 10 - -7% 0% 29201: Manufacture of bodies (coachwork) for motor vehicles (except caravans) 10 10 - 14% -22% 33190: Repair of other equipment 10 10 - 440% -17% 45190: Sale of other motor vehicles 10 10 - 12% 25% 46120: Agents involved in the sale of fuels, ores, metals and industrial chemicals 10 10 - 1000% 678% 46190: Agents involved in the sale of a variety of goods 10 10 - 2600% 1400% 46341: Wholesale of fruit and vegetable juices, mineral waters and soft drinks 10 10 - 23% 0% 46370: Wholesale of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices 10 10 - -38% -17% 46410: Wholesale of textiles 10 10 - -20% -10% 46720: Wholesale of metals and metal ores 10 10 - 9% 0% 47749: Retail sale of medical and orthopaedic goods (other than hearing aids) nec, in specialised stores 10 10 - 15% -25% 47820: Retail sale via stalls and markets of textiles, clothing and footwear 10 10 - 0% 0% 49420: Removal services 10 10 - 40% 25% 63910: News agency activities 10 10 - 57% 67% 82190: Photocopying, document preparation and other specialised office support activities 10 10 - -25% -38% 82912: Activities of credit bureaus 10 10 - 100% 50% 90020: Support activities to performing arts 10 10 - -36% -42% 90040: Operation of arts facilities 10 10 - 2% -17% 91020: Museum activities 10 10 - -17% -11% 91030: Operation of historical sites and buildings and similar visitor attractions 10 10 - -44% -25% 52220: Service activities incidental to water transportation 50 5 11% -19% -13% 25110: Manufacture of metal structures and parts of structures 40 5 14% 36% -17%
Page 99
86 46342: Wholesale of wine, beer, spirits and other alcoholic beverages 35 5 17% 46% -13% 71112: Urban planning and landscape architectural activities 35 5 17% -6% 0% 64192: Building societies 25 5 25% 28% 20% 47990: Other retail sale not in stores, stalls or markets 20 5 33% -23% -36% 26701: Manufacture of optical precision instruments 15 5 50% 31% 11% 33110: Repair of fabricated metal products 15 5 50% 18% 0% 33200: Installation of industrial machinery and equipment 10 5 100% 48% 25% 64999: Other financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding, (not including security dealing on own account and factoring) n.e.c. 10 5 100% 348% 317% 74201: Portrait photographic activities 10 5 100% 0% -25% 46750: Wholesale of chemical products 5 5 - -21% 0% 59112: Video production activities 5 5 - 19% 17% 82301: Activities of exhibition and fair organizers 5 5 - 200% 40% Source: Business Register & Employment Survey
Page 100
87 Appendix E: Investor Support Specification A review of the potential detailed services is highlighted below and this provides an overview of the specification for the service: it does not require significant new resources \[but would require some] and does not need to be an expensive service: in order to achieve this, it seeks to: o make better use of existing services o build and utilise local networks o co-ordinate current available services there will be a requirement to undertake marketing and awareness raising with key stakeholders to include: o other public sector organisations o business intermediaries/ advisors o individual business a key aspect will be the proactive/ hands on provision of services – it is not (only) about signposting but more about account management. It is about providing support services – doing things on behalf of a client; it should seek to integrate with the local private sector support architecture – not compete but work with them as an additional resource; it should be unique and only available to companies/ investors with located in or seeking to locate/ invest in, the corridor; the service is independent and acts only in the best interest of their clients (e.g. property agents focus on their own clients property regardless if it is the best option) it should provide a single point of contact, preferably a named individual with the proposed Project Manager possibly the best option; While we do not believe that there will be a requirement for significant new resources, it is recognised that there will be a need for some budget to support: development of marketing materials/ marketing and promotion; developing web site and populating with relevant information awareness raising; conferences and events; bespoke market research; feasibility studies/ proposition development for infrastructure; and
Page 101
88 development of business investment propositions. While more consideration of the level of resources which would be required, the following are highlighted as potential services: provision of one-stop shop for anyone seeking to invest in Renfrewshire (start up/growth/inward investor): o project scale requires to be defined with supporting triage service o named contact to act as front face of project and which will manage marketing o marketing and promotion o develop networks with public and private sector intermediaries investment services information portal (web site): o details of project o details of support available and method for accessing o key contacts listing o supply chain information o regular market reviews o information to include socio economic; property market details etc o generic reports and information and links to other relevant sites o links to social media sites and presence business investment support for companies looking to start up, grow or locate in area: o provision of generic information from web site and regular reports o labour markets, property markets, supply chains, generic public services o staff related information – schools, housing, training support etc o support with market studies/ feasibility o discussions with other organisations (SE/BG/SDS) to obtain support o access to public services, planning, roads, utilities etc o signposting to relevant services specific support to be provided to SDI to provide single point of contact for information and support
Page 102
89 infrastructure investment support targeted at investors/ developers seeking to develop new projects in corridor: o provision of generic information form web site and regular reports o labour markets, property, housing, public services etc o support to develop business/ investment case o hand holding to navigate investment e.g. with planning o signposting to relevant services proposition development o regular market reviews – housing/ business property, commercial property o identification of new opportunities and initial feasibility study o initial discussions with public sector (planning/roads etc) o marketing/ promoting the opportunity o delivery of generic conferences aftercare service o regular contact with service clients and written reports o repeat services from above as agreed o build local networks/ contact with other providers o referral/signposting services
Page 103
90 Specific Examples 1. A manufacturing company based in Glasgow is looking to set up a Renfrewshire operation to service UK and international markets based in or around NMIS. The company is referred to the service by their accountant and following a meeting with the Service are provided with details of all suitable property in the area. Information on labour markets/ wages rates are also provided. The company are also introduced to other relevant organisations for future interest or support. 2. A US owned company already located in Renfrewshire is reviewing their options for a new project which could be based in a number of locations. The Service works with the local company to prepare a business case to be made to their Head Office. They provide information on property costs/ labour costs, productivity levels, available grants, training support, other services, local environmental conditions etc. They also provide a statement of support from the local public sector for the project to be included in the submission. 3. A developer is considering an opportunity to develop a new business park in the area. Support is provided to a feasibility study to undertake a detailed project appraisal to test the commercial nature of the project. On the basis that the outcome is positive, the Service works with the investor through the development phase acting as the main contact with the wider public sector. 4. Through regular contact with companies, the Service becomes aware of a shortage of hotel accommodation/ restaurants in the area. They undertake a feasibility/ market study to determine if there is an opportunity for investment. On the basis of a positive outcome, the project is worked up to a proposition stage and marketed to the wider development industry. 5. During an aftercare visit, the Service is advised that a company is thinking about pulling out of the area due to recruitment difficulties. The Service works with the company and other support organisations such as SDS to develop and implement a recruitment and retention strategy. 6. SDI have an enquiry from a company looking to establish in the area. The Service provides required information and sets up/hosts visit to the area. They also agree to provide key client services on an ongoing basis.