Renfrewshire Economic Profile January 2025 Econ & Regen 21 01 25 AM reviewed Final version
Renfrewshire Council · 21 January 2025
Back to Economy and Regeneration Policy Board — 21 January 2025 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
Page 1
___________________________________________________________________ To: Economy and Regeneration Policy Board On: 21 January 2025 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Chief Executive ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Renfrewshire Economic Profile (January 2025) ___________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1 This report contains the tenth edition of the Renfrewshire Economic Profile. These updates allow members to track changes in the local economy through a set of key statistical indicators. The last update on the Economic Profile was brought to the board in January 2024. ___________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendation 2.1 It is recommended that the Board: (i) Notes the content of the January 2025 Renfrewshire Economic Profile Update. ___________________________________________________________________ 3. Background 3.1 The purpose of the economic profile update is to describe and track local demographics and economic indicators for Renfrewshire on an annual basis. The data and analysis presented provides a context and a baseline to assess how well the Renfrewshire economy has performed over time. 3.2 In terms of the profile, as with previous versions of this reports, officers have selected Scotland and the Glasgow City Region (GCR1) as the most 1 GCR is made up of 8 member authorities: East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire.
Page 2
appropriate comparators. The national average is a commonly used guide by most local authorities in terms of relative performance. 3.3 Data used which forms the basis of the update is taken from a variety of sources including the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS) and the Scottish Government. Officers also use statistical information collated by the Glasgow City Region Intelligence Hub. ___________________________________________________________________ 4. Key issues arising from the Renfrewshire Economic Profile. 4.1 Renfrewshire’s population continues to grow steadily, a trend expected to continue. This growth is driven by net migration into the area, as the rate of natural change (births minus deaths) remains negative. Renfrewshire has the third-highest net migration rate in the Glasgow City Region (GCR), with inflows into its towns and villages accounting for the population increase. 4.2 Since the last update, Renfrewshire’s overall employment rate has decreased slightly (600 people), accompanied by an increase in economic inactivity. This has primarily been caused by a doubling of those early retired (from 3,200 to 7,200 in the last year) thereby impacting both employment and economic activity rates. Encouragingly, Renfrewshire’s economic inactivity due to long term sickness has dropped substantially by 2,600 people (around 25% on the previous figures), one of the highest reductions in Scotland. Reducing this figure has been a key concern for the council and the Local Employability Partnership. 4.3 The average weekly income of Renfrewshire residents has increased again since the last reporting period. However, the average wage for those working in Renfrewshire is the second-lowest in the City Region. This highlights a disparity between the earnings of residents and those employed within the local authority. The analysis suggests that a number of higher-earning residents are likely to work outside Renfrewshire. 4.4 Key employment sectors in Renfrewshire remain focused on health and social work, retail, manufacturing, logistics, and business administration. Unsurprisingly, many of these sectors contribute significantly to Renfrewshire’s Gross Value Added (GVA). Overall, Renfrewshire’s GVA increased between 2019 and 2022, ranking as the fourth highest in the City Region. Most of the area’s economic output is concentrated around major employment hubs in Paisley, Renfrew, and Glasgow Airport, including Inchinnan Business Park, Hillington, Westway and Braehead. 4.5 Sustainable tourism continues to grow in importance in Renfrewshire’s economy with the number employed in the sector increasing since the last reporting period. 4.6 Town centre vacancy rates have remained broadly similar to 2023, with marginal decreases in the centres of Johnstone and Renfrew. It is worth noting that Paisley's vacancy rate appears inflated due to the presence of the Paisley Centre. The Centre’s owners are currently exploring potential redevelopment options, including new residential and leisure uses. As a
Page 3
result, the Centre is not reletting units, which artificially inflates the overall town centre vacancy rate. Excluding the Paisley Centre, the vacancy rate for Paisley drops from 21% to 15%. 4.7 Officers have been investigating ways to reduce vacancy rates. This includes significant capital investment in Council-owned commercial properties, such as the parade at Houstoun Court, where a number of units are now back in use. In addition, officers launched the Town Centre Premises Grant scheme in 2024 to support local businesses in occupying empty commercial premises. Efforts will continue in 2025 to increase uptake of the scheme. 4.8 Despite a national decrease, Renfrewshire reported an increase in house building completions, with Renfrewshire’s rate being the highest in the City Region for this period. 4.9 Renfrewshire has the highest proportion of households with fibre broadband availability in the GCR. 4.10 The amount of vacant and derelict land in Renfrewshire has remained relatively unchanged since the previous reporting period. Conclusion 4.11 As with previous updates, Renfrewshire’s economy continues to perform well compared to regional and national averages across several key performance indicators, including GVA, qualifications, employment, and earnings. However, a key area for improvement is the creation of more high-value, highly paid jobs in the area. The continuing development of the Advanced Manufacturing Innovation District Scotland (AMIDS) could play a pivotal role in achieving this goal. AMIDS is set to become a cutting-edge hub for industry and innovation, offering significant opportunities in STEM and technology fields. The OMICE innovation centre is set to commence construction early in 2025. 4.12 The full economic profile for Renfrewshire is included in Appendix 1 of this report. ____________________________________________________________ Implications of the Report 1. Financial – No additional finance is sought. All funding is accounted for within existing Council budgets. 2. HR & Organisational Development – None 3. Community/Council Planning – • Empowering our Communities – the new Economic Profile will enable communities to have a clearer understanding of the relative performance of the Renfrewshire economy. • Jobs and the Economy - the new Economic Profile will present a clearer picture of the relative performance of the Renfrewshire economy. 4. Legal – None 5. Property/Assets – None 6. Information Technology – None.
Page 4
7. Equality & Human Rights - The Recommendations contained within this report have been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights. No negative impacts on equality groups or potential for infringement of individuals’ human rights have been identified arising from the recommendations contained in the report. 8. Health & Safety – None 9. Procurement – None 10. Risk – None 11. Privacy Impact - None. 12. Climate Risk – None 13. Children’s Rights - None 14. Cosla Policy Position - None ___________________________________________________________________ Author: Euan Shearer; Regeneration and Place Manager Email: euan.shearer@renfrewshire.gov.uk
Page 5
Appendix 1 Renfrewshire Economic Statistics (Tenth Edition: January 2025) 1. Population Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Population 2023 186,540 Increase of 7% from 2010. 5,490,100 Increase of 4% from 2010. 1,865,590 Increase of 5% from 2010. Births (2023) 1,663 Decrease of 17% from 1,995 in 2010. 45,935 Decrease of 22% from 58,791 in 2010. 16,787 Decrease of 18% from 20,538 in 2010. Deaths (2023) 2,195 Increase of 15% from 1,910 in 2010. 63,445 Increase of 18% from 53,967 in 2010. 21,274 Increase of 13% from 18,791 in 2010. Male Life Expectancy 2021- 2023 75.5 Increase of 5% from 71.9 in 2001-03. 76.6 Increase of 4% from 73.5 in 2001-03. . Life expectancy in Renfrewshire and Scotland increased for both males and females when comparing figures from 2001-03 and 2021- 23. Female Life Expectancy 2021 - 2023 80.6 Increase of 3% from 78.1 in 2001-03. 80.8 Increase of 2% from 78.9 in 2001-03. 2,750 3rd highest level of net migration in the GCR. Increase of 1,520 since 2020-21. 61,600 Significant increase of 33,800 people from 2020-21. 22,320 Significant increase of 15,820 people from 2020/21.
Page 6
2. Employment Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Economic Inactivity Rate - aged 16-64 (Jul 2023-Jun 2024) 24.6% 28,000 people Rate has increased 1.3% from the previous year, an increase of 1,900 people. Key indicators show an additional 4,000 people (early) retired and 2,600 less people now long term sick. 22.7% Rate has increased 0.1% from the previous reporting period. 24.2% Renfrewshire has the 3rd lowest inactivity rate in the GCR Glasgow City has the highest inactivity rate at 28.1% and East Renfrewshire has the lowest at 17.9%. Employment rate - aged 16-64 (Jul 2023-Jun 2024) 73.8% 87,400 people Employment rate has decreased by 1.7% in the last year with 600 less people in work. 74.5% Rate has decreased by 0.3% from the previous reporting period. 73.6% Renfrewshire has the 4th highest employment rate in the GCR. East Renfrewshire has the highest (79.7%) and Glasgow City has the lowest (68.1%). Net Migration (2022-23) % of population that is of the working age (16- 64yrs) (at 2023) 65% 1% increase since 2018 65% 1% increase since 2018 66% 2% increase since 2018
Page 7
Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Claimant Count (Nov 2024) 3.0% 3,520 people The percentage remains the same at 3% from a year ago (Nov 23) with an decrease of 75 people claiming benefits. 3.1% Marginal increase of 0.1% compared to November 2023 figure. 3.1% Renfrewshire has the 5th lowest proportion in the GCR. Glasgow City has the highest proportion (5.1%) whereas East Renfrewshire has the lowest (1.7%). Occupations (Workplaces in Renfrewshire; at 2023) Renfrewshire has above average employment in: • Manufacturing (c.9,0002) • Retail (c.9,000) • Business administration (c.9,000) • Transport and Storage (c.7,000) Scotland is closer to Renfrewshire in terms of the proportion for construction and health but is lower in other sectors, such as manufacturing and transport and storage. Renfrewshire has higher proportions of employment than the GCR in: • Manufacturing • Transportation and Storage; and • Business administration Resident-based Weekly Earnings (2024) Median weekly earnings for full-time employees living in Renfrewshire are £745, an increase of around £30 per week from 2023. Median weekly earnings for full-time employees living in Scotland are £740. Renfrewshire’s resident based weekly earnings are slightly higher than the GCR average of £739. Renfrewshire is 4th highest in the Region behind East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire. Workplace-based Weekly Earnings (2024) Median weekly earning for full time employees working in Renfrewshire are £659 a slight increase of £13 from 2023 figures. Median weekly earnings for workplace-based earnings in Scotland are £740. Renfrewshire workplace-based earnings is 2nd lowest the Region behind East Dunbartonshire. The highest earnings in the Region is Glasgow City (£757). 2 NB the publicly available data from BRES is a rounded figure.
Page 8
Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Employment in low pay sectors (%) 2023 34.5% Slight decrease from 35.7% in 2022. 28.8% Slight decrease of 0.2% from 2022. 30.0% Renfrewshire has the highest rate in the GCR. North Lanarkshire has the lowest rate at 26.9% Qualifications NVQ4 and above % of pop 16-64yrs (2023) 62.9% (67,300) 8.1% increase from 2022. 55.1% 0.9% increase from 2022. Renfrewshire has the 3rd highest rate of qualification at this level in the GCR with East Renfrewshire the highest (70.1%) and West Dunbartonshire the lowest on (44.1%). No Qualifications % of pop 16-64yrs (2023) 7.3% (7,800) 2.1% increase from 2022. 8.2% 0.2% increase from 2022. 10.7% East Renfrewshire has the lowest percentage of residents with no qualifications in the GCR. North Lanarkshire has the highest at 14.3% % of School Leavers in Positive Destinations 2022/2023 96.4 (1,867) Marginal 0.2% decrease from 96.6% in 2021/2022. 95.9% Marginal 0.2% increase from 2021/2022. 96.6% Renfrewshire has the joint 5th highest attainment level in the GCR. East Renfrewshire has the highest at 98.7% with North Lanarkshire the lowest 94.7% % of Households that are Workless 2023 17.1% (9,808) 17.4% 18.2%
Page 9
Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Decrease of 1.5% from 2022. Decrease of 0.4% since 2022. West Dunbartonshire has the highest % in the GCR at 23.9%. South Lanarkshire has the lowest at 14.3%. 3. Business Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Business Count (2024) 4,665 86% are micro businesses with less than 10 employees. 12% are small businesses (10 to 49). 2% have been 50 and 250 employees. Less than 1% are classed as large businesses with more than 250 employees. This figure is for VAT and/or PAYE registered enterprises 172,255 Generally, an equivalent split to that of Renfrewshire’s with around 98% of businesses being classed as either micro or small. 49,685 Renfrewshire has a higher proportion of larger sized organisations compared to areas such as East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire. Business Birth Rate (per 10,000 16-64 Population) (2022) 48.1 (570) 7% decrease from 2021. 54.6 0.5% increase from 2020. 58.4 Renfrewshire had the 5th largest number of start- ups (570). Glasgow City had the most with 3,050 and Inverclyde the fewest with 195.
Page 10
Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Business Death Rate (per 10,000 16-64 Population) (2022) 50.2 (595) No change from 2021. 56.8 No change from 2021. 55.4 Renfrewshire had the 3rd lowest Business Death Rate in the GCR, with East Renfrewshire the highest (62.7%) and West Dunbartonshire the lowest (40.5%). GVA (2022)3 Source – ONS/GCR £4.86 billion GVA grew by £365m between 2019 and 2022. £165.7 billion GVA has grown substantially nationally from £151.5 billion reported in 2021 (11.3% increase). £53.4 billion Glasgow City (£25.8 billion) accounts for the most GVA in the GCR. Renfrewshire accounts for the fourth highest amount of GVA. Inverclyde has the lowest at £1.1 billion. Town Centre Vacancy Rates (2024) Paisley – 21% (15%4) Renfrew – 13% Johnstone – 18% Erskine – 7% Braehead – 16% Linwood – 5% Vacancy rates in Paisley and Braehead have remained fairly consistent between 2023 and 2024. Whereas both Renfrew and Johnstone have 3 The latest GVA results are based on data from the Office for National Statistics (Regional gross value added (balanced) by industry: local authorities by ITL1 region), April 24. The nineth edition update used the Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2020 (SABS) data. 4 The figure in brackets excludes the Paisley Centre
Page 11
Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region reported some reductions. 4. Manufacturing Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Number Employed in Manufacturing Sector (2023) 9,000 This figure has increased by c.1,000 workers since the 2019 figure (8,000). 176,000 The total number of jobs in Manufacturing in Scotland has increased by 5% from the 2019 figure. 57,350 Glasgow City has the highest number of manufacturing jobs in the GCR (c.20,000) and East Renfrewshire the lowest (c.600). Number Employed in Manufacturing Sector per 10,000 working age population (2023) 739 Renfrewshire has a higher rate of employment in manufacturing than the GCR and Scottish rates. 496 463 Only Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire have higher rates than the Scottish average rate and Renfrewshire is significantly the highest in the GCR. Manufacturing as % of total employment (2023) 10.7% Increase on the 2022 figure (9.3%). 6.8% No change from the 2022 figure. 6.2% Renfrewshire has the highest proportion of employment in manufacturing in the GCR and East Renfrewshire has the lowest (1.3%). 4.9% Renfrewshire contributes a higher proportion to Scottish Renfrewshire has the 8th highest manufacturing GVA in Scotland. 9% Glasgow City Region collectively accounts for around £4.7 billion
Page 12
Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region % of Scottish Manufacturing GVA (2022) manufacturing GVA than its overall contribution to Scottish GVA (2.9%). GVA in manufacturing to the Scottish economy. Manufacturing as a % of GVA (2022) 17.1% Among LAs in Scotland, Renfrewshire has the 7th highest proportion of manufacturing GVA as a percentage of its overall GVA. 10.2% Angus has the highest proportion in Scotland of manufacturing GVA as a percentage of its overall GVA, at 33.7%. East Renfrewshire has the lowest at 2.1%. 16.88% West Dunbartonshire has the highest proportion rate in the GCR at 25.2%. 5. Tourism Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Sustainable employment in tourism (at 2023) 7,000 Increase of 1,000 employees on the 2022 figure. 245,000 Increase of 16,000 on the figure of 2022. 70,750 This accounts for 28.9% of Scottish sustainable tourism employment. Renfrewshire has the joint 3rd highest level of sustainable tourism employment in the Region. Glasgow has the largest with 36,000 and East Renfrewshire the smallest with 2,250. Direct expenditure (visitors, 2023) £183.50m This is a reduction of 1.9% on the 2022 figure of £187.11m. n/a5 n/a 5 STEAM is commissioned at a local authority level and therefore does not provide a Scotland or city-region wide figure
Page 13
Visitors to Events (2024) 22,0626 Visitors from outwith Renfrewshire based on 4 events in 2024 (Paisley Food and Drink Festival, Renfrew Pipe Bands, SMA' Shot Day and Paisley Halloween Festival). - - All Visits to Attractions (2023) 1.06m An increase of 2.5% from 2022 figures. 48.7m A 17% increase in visitors to attractions throughout Scotland from 2022 10.9m A 14% increase in visitors to attractions throughout the City Region from 2022 6. Housing Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Supply of New Housing – Rate per 10,000 Population (2023) 61.7 There was an increase in house building completions in Renfrewshire between 2022 and 2023 from 832 to 1137. 38.1 There was a decrease in house building nationally between 2022 and 2023 from 23,692 to 20,917. 35.0 Renfrewshire had the highest rate of new house building per 10,000 population in the GCR. East Dunbartonshire the lowest (16.0). Supply of New Housing – Rate per 44.7 Renfrewshire’s rate over the last five years has increased marginally (0.2%) from the previous average. 38.0 33.4 Renfrewshire has the second highest 5-year rate of new house building in the Glasgow City Region. South Lanarkshire has the highest (47.6) and East 6 These are unique visitors to Renfrewshire and not total attendees
Page 14
Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region 10,000 Population (average 2019 to 2023) Dunbartonshire the lowest (19.2). % premises with available Fibre broadband connection (2023) 80.6% 7% increase from January 2022. 52.1% 17% increase from January 2022 52.8% Renfrewshire has the highest rate in the GCR. West Dunbartonshire the lowest 8.6%. Total Vacant & Derelict Land (Ha) (2023) 245ha Renfrewshire has experienced reduction in VDL between 2017 and 2023 (approx. 47ha). 9,111 ha Overall VDL has fallen by almost 3,000ha since 2017. 3,085 ha This is 34% of the Scottish total. Renfrewshire has the fourth highest total area of vacant and derelict land in the GCR. North Lanarkshire has the highest with 1,284 ha and East Renfrewshire the lowest with 43 ha. Vacant and Derelict Land as % of all Scottish V&D land (2023) 2.7% 100% 33.9% Renfrewshire has the 4th highest % of Scottish V&D land in the GCR with North Lanarkshire the highest (14.9%) and East Renfrewshire the lowest (0.5%). Total Vacant & Derelict Land (Ha) in bottom 15% SIMD areas (2023) 48.9 ha 5.7% increase from 2020. 957.5 ha 16.8% decrease from 2020. 267.5 ha Renfrewshire has the 4th highest amount in the GCR. Glasgow City has the highest amount at 497.3 ha. East
Page 15
Renfrewshire Scotland Glasgow City Region Dunbartonshire have the lowest with 0.0. Breakdown of Tenure Type (2022) Total Dwellings: 90,028 Owner Occupied – 64.5% Private vacant/second homes – 2% Private Rented – 10.4% Socially Rented – 24% Total Dwellings: 2,687,186 Owner Occupied – 60.6% Private vacant/second homes – 4% Private Rented – 12.7% Socially Rented – 23% Total Dwellings: 899,685 Owner Occupied – 59% Private vacant/second homes – 2% Private Rented – 11% Socially Rented – 27% Effective Housing Land Supply % Brownfield (2024) 88% This figure is from Renfrewshire's Housing Land Audit 2024. It represents the % of the land supply that will produce units in the next 7 years that is classed as brownfield. Glossary: Claimant Count: The Claimant Count is a measure of the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed, based on administrative data from the benefits system. Employment in low pay sectors: These include employment in the retail and hospitality sectors. Gross Value Added (GVA): Gross Value Added measures the value generated in the production of goods and services. It is one measure of overall economic performance. School Leavers in Positive Destinations: Includes higher education, further education, training, employment, voluntary work, Personal Skills Development and (Activity Agreements.
Page 16
Sustainable Tourism: Sustainable Tourism sector was identified in Scotland’s Economic Strategy as one of the growth sectors in which Scotland can build on existing comparative advantage and increase productivity and growth. Scotland’s tourism sector is a diverse industry, with a range of sub-sectors such as hotels, camping sites and other provision of short stay accommodation, restaurants, bars, travel agents, museums and other recreational and cultural activities. Vacant and Derelict Land: Vacant land is defined as land within a settlement that has been previously developed, without physical constraint, and which the planning authority has indicated is available for redevelopment. Derelict land is defined as land 'damaged by development, so that it is incapable of development for beneficial use without some remedial works'.