Prevent Update 2026 - Appendix
Renfrewshire Council · 19 May 2026
Back to Communities and Housing Policy Board — 19 May 2026 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
Page 1
PUBLIC Appendix 1 Situational Assessment: Counter-Terrorism Risk in Renfrewshire (2025–2026) 1. Executive Summary This document provides a robust situational assessment of Counter-Terrorism (CT) risk within the Renfrewshire local authority area, fulfilling statutory requirements under the Counter-Terrorism and Security Act 2015. Its primary objective is to identify localised risk factors to inform the Renfrewshire & Inverclyde CONTEST Board and assist partners in prioritizing Prevent activity. Current intelligence indicates that Extreme Right-Wing Terrorism (ERWT) remains the predominant local threat. While Islamist terrorism maintains a lower local footprint, it remains a national priority. Emerging risks, including Incels, misogynistic influencers, and Mixed, Unclear or Unstable (MUU) ideologies (referenced as LASIT in national reporting), represent persistent challenges for youth- facing services. Each recommendation within this assessment is assigned a lead service area. Delivery will be supported through service‑level Single Points of Contact (SPOCs), coordinated centrally via the Council Prevent Coordinator. 2. Geographical and Demographic Context 2.1 Regional Overview Renfrewshire encompasses approximately 101 square miles (261 km²) within the west central Lowlands of Scotland. The area is bordered by the River Clyde to the north, Inverclyde to the west, East Renfrewshire to the south, and Glasgow to the east. The landscape is a complex mix of high- density urban centres—primarily Paisley, Johnstone and Renfrew—and rural surroundings including Kilbarchan, Bridge of Weir, and Lochwinnoch. Natural features such as Castle Semple Loch and the river systems of the Gryfe, Black Cart Water, and White Cart Water present unique considerations for public space management. 2.2 Population and Vulnerability Metrics As of 2024, the population stands at 189,170. • Age Structure: 16.8% are aged 0–15, 64.1% are aged 16–64, and 19% are 65 or older. • Diversity: The population is 94.5% White, 2.7% Asian, 1.3% Black, 0.9% Mixed, and 0.6% Other.
Page 2
PUBLIC • Disability: Approximately 24.8% of the population identifies as having a disability to some extent (11.8% "a lot"; 13% "to some extent"). 3. Transport and Connectivity Renfrewshire acts as a critical hub for regional and international transit, which necessitates heightened vigilance regarding the Protect and Prepare strands of CONTEST. • Aviation: Glasgow Airport, situated within the authority, offers over 130 destinations and is a primary piece of critical national infrastructure. It presents unique travel-related risks and increased security pressures. • Rail Infrastructure: o Paisley Gilmour Street is the fourth busiest station in Scotland, serving as a gateway to Glasgow, Ayrshire, and Inverclyde. o Paisley Canal Railway Station serves as a terminal station on the Paisley Canal Line, providing a direct rail link between southern Paisley and Glasgow City Centre. o Johnstone, Howwood and Lochwinnoch park and ride facilities service a significant number of residents on the main lines to Gilmour Street. • Road Connectivity: The M8 motorway bisects the area, linking Renfrewshire to Edinburgh and Greenock, while the Erskine and Renfrew Bridges provide strategic crossings north across the Clyde. • Future Development: The AMIDS South project and ongoing bridge and active travel investments continue to increase the accessibility and footfall within the region. 4. Threat Landscape Analysis 4.1 Extreme Right-Wing Terrorism (ERWT) ERWT is the primary threat in the area, characterised by a permissive environment fuelled by online harms and real-world propaganda such as stickering and graffiti. Vulnerability is particularly high among youths. Attack methodologies are likely to involve low-sophistication tactics, such as the use of bladed or blunt-force weapons.
Page 3
PUBLIC 4.2 Islamist Terrorism While local Prevent referrals remain low, the national threat level remains significant. Any local manifestation is most likely to involve self-initiated actors utilising low-sophistication methods. 4.3 Emerging Threats: Incels and Misogyny There is a growing concern regarding misogynistic influencers and "Incel" culture. While these often sit below the legal threshold for terrorism, they contribute to cumulative harm and increase the vulnerability of young males to radicalisation. 5. Risk Matrix and Vulnerabilities THREAT AREA LIKELIHOOD (1–5) IMPACT (1–5) RISK SCORE RIGHT-WING EXTREMISM 4 4 16 – High ISLAMIST TERRORISM 2 4 8 – Medium COMMUNITY TENSIONS 3 3 9 – Medium INCELS/MISOGYNY 2 2 4 – Low MUU 1 2 2 – Low Key Vulnerability Points • Educational Institutions: Schools, colleges, and universities are primary sites for Prevent engagement. • Secure Residential Care: Kibble and Good Shepherd are identified as specific points requiring tailored support. • Public Events: Large-scale events require enhanced protective security planning to mitigate mass-casualty risks.
Page 4
PUBLIC 6. Recommendations Goal Lead Support Notes Prevent Single Point of Contact (SPOC) All services N/A Each service will formally nominate a named Prevent Single Point of Contact (SPOC) responsible for coordinating Prevent-related activity, acting as the initial point of professional advice, and escalating concerns where appropriate. The SPOC role will include maintaining awareness of local Prevent risk, safeguarding thresholds, and referral pathways. SPOC arrangements will be reviewed annually, or sooner where there is structural change, emerging risk, or changes to service delivery models. Propaganda Disruption Community Safety / CCTV Housing, Education, Police Scotland Clear reporting and response pathways are in place for the identification, recording, and removal of extremist or terrorism-related propaganda across online and physical environments. This includes graffiti, stickers, leaflets, posters, and online content linked to council-owned or managed assets. Activity will be coordinated between Community Safety, CCTV, Housing, Education, and Police Scotland to ensure proportionate disruption, rapid intelligence sharing, and safeguarding-led responses rather than enforcement-led action where appropriate. Statutory Training Education & Social Work HR / Third Sector Mandatory Prevent awareness training is provided in line with statutory guidance, with particular emphasis on staff working with children, young people, and vulnerable adults. Training focuses on recognising early indicators of radicalisation, understanding local risk factors, and knowing how to respond and record concerns proportionately. Refresher training and targeted briefings will be provided where risk increases or service roles change.
Page 5
PUBLIC Goal Lead Support Notes Event Security Events / Licensing / Civil Contingencies Community Safety, Police Scotland Proportionate protective security planning is in place for public and licensed events, informed by local threat assessments and risk profiles. This includes consideration of crowd management, access control, emergency response procedures, and liaison with Police Scotland where required. Prevent and protective security considerations are embedded within event planning processes, ensuring measures are scalable and commensurate with event size, location, and audience profile. Partnership Governance Community Safety / Prevent All specified authorities Multi-agency Prevent partnership governance arrangements are established to provide strategic oversight, information sharing, and assurance. A quarterly Prevent steering group will report into the CONTEST Board, providing updates on risk, activity, referrals, training coverage, and emerging issues. Governance structures support consistency, accountability, and alignment with wider safeguarding and community safety arrangements. Risk Assessment Review Renfrewshire Prevent Steering Group All partners This Prevent risk assessment will be reviewed on an annual basis to ensure it remains current, proportionate, and reflective of the local threat picture. Interim reviews will be undertaken where there is a significant change in risk, following serious incidents, or where intelligence indicates increased vulnerability to radicalisation or terrorist activity. Actions and outcomes will be recorded and reported through established governance routes. Martyn’s Law Renfrewshire Prevent Steering Group Licensing / Events Team / Civil Contingencies / Property and Asset Management / Education Ensure preparatory arrangements are in place to align with the requirements of the Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act (Martyn’s Law). This includes raising awareness of protective security responsibilities among relevant services, identifying qualifying premises and events, and embedding proportionate protective security measures and emergency preparedness into existing risk management processes. Work will remain aligned with national guidance as implementation phases are confirmed, ensuring readiness without disproportionate burden on services or partners.