Bulk Uplifts complete
Renfrewshire Council · 6 November 2023
Back to Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board — 6 November 2023 and its agenda
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To: Audit, Risk & Scrutiny Board On: 5 November 2023 Report by: Lead Officer Heading: Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 1. Summary 1.1. At its meeting on 22 August 2022, members of the Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board agreed an annual programme of activity for the Board for 2022/23. This included a review of charges for bulk items uplifts for the elderly as part of the programme of activity. 2. Recommendations 2.1. The Board is asked to: 1. consider the key findings and recommendations; 2. approve the appended draft Council report for submission on 14 December 2023; and 3. note the lead officer’s appreciation for all who assisted in the review. 3. Background 3.1. The attached draft report to Council describes the purpose and scope of the review on charges for bulk items uplift for the elderly. It includes summaries of the information reported to each meeting of the Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board, and concludes with the key findings and proposed recommendations. 3.2. Previous related reports to Board have been recorded as background papers for the Council report. ___________________________________________________________________
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Implications of this report 1. Financial - The review highlights the additional costs and loss of income to Renfrewshire Council which could occur in the event of changes to the current arrangements and charges for the bulk uplift service amounting to an estimated £0.160m per year. This could rise depending on the level of demand experienced in future. 2. HR and Organisational Development - None directly arising from this report. 3. Community/Council Planning - None directly arising from this report. 4. Legal - None directly arising from this report. 5. Property/Assets - None directly arising from this report. 6. Information Technology - None directly arising from this report. 7. Equality and Human Rights - The recommendations contained within this report have not been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights as the paper sets out the scope for a review process rather than proposing any changes to services. If any change to policy or service position were to be considered in future, then full equality and human rights impact assessments will be undertaken. 8. Health and Safety - None directly arising from this report. 9. Procurement - None directly arising from this report. 10. Risk - The potential risk that the Council will overspend its approved budgets for the year will be managed at a Council-wide level by the Chief Executive and Directors. 11. Privacy Impact - None directly arising from this report. 12. 13. Cosla Policy Position - Not applicable. Climate Risk - None directly arising from this report. __________________________________________________________________ List of Background Papers
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Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Annual Programme approved 22 August 2022. Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 23 January 2023. Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 13 March 2023. Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 22 May 2023. Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 26 September 2023. The foregoing background papers will be retained within Finance and Resources for inspection by the public for the prescribed period of four years from the date of the meeting. The contact officer within the service is Finance Business Partner John Kilpatrick who can be contacted at john.kilpatrick@renfrewshire.gov.uk __________________________________________________________________ Author: John Kilpatrick, Finance Business Partner
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To: Council On: 14 December 2023 Report by: Lead Officer on behalf of the Audit, Risk & Scrutiny Board Heading: Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 1. Summary 1.1. At its meeting on 22 August 2022, members of the Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board agreed an annual programme of activity for the Board for 2022/23. This included a review of charges for bulk item uplifts for the elderly as part of the programme of activity. 1.2. Over a period of months and as part of the annual programme, reports have been presented to the Board by the Lead Officer on the subject of charges for bulk items uplifts for the elderly. 1.3. This report describes the purpose and scope of the review, it includes summaries of the information reported to each Board meeting and concludes with the key findings and the recommendation. 1.4. The review has provided assurance to the Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board. The Board agreed the final report at its 6 November 2023 meeting. 2. Recommendations Members are asked to: 2.1. note the findings and approve the recommendations within this report. 3. Background 3.1. Residents of Renfrewshire can request special uplifts if they need any bulky general waste collected from their home. This can be for between 1 and 20
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items but cannot include hazardous, clinical, or toxic waste. Loose waste must be bagged or tied in manageable bundles where necessary. In addition, appliances such as washing machines, freezers, cookers etc are all charged individually and cannot form part of the 1 to 20 items. 3.2. Ground clearances are when residents have more than 20 items and the charge quoted is for a maximum of one hour’s work. However, if officers visit and assess that it will take longer than this, they will contact the resident about the additional costs before commencing any work. Again, domestic appliances are charged individually and do not form part of a ground clearance. 3.3. Renfrewshire Council aims to collect item(s) as soon as possible within 14 days. Residents must ensure any white goods have their doors removed or place in a position where no one can access it. Special uplift requests for white goods and general goods can be made at the same time, however white goods are charged separately. 3.4. The charges for 2023/24 are £37.15 for a domestic uplift (1-20 items) and £37.15 for each domestic white good. The ground clearance charges are £88.00 covering a driver, a waste collector, and a vehicle, for a maximum of one hour’s work. 3.5. Residents who are council tenants are entitled to two special uplifts per year as part of their rent charge, this is paid for from within the overall Housing Revenue Account (HRA). This is achieved by providing their rent reference number when making their booking. 3.6. The current scheme provides no free, discounted or exemptions for this service for any other residents. 4. Purpose of the Review 4.1. The key purpose of this review will be to: 4. Set out the current position in relation to bulk uplifts within Renfrewshire Council; 5. Consider the impact of offering a free bulk uplift service for the elderly; and 6. Identify any other mitigations that could be recommended for the elderly that the council could pursue within available resources. 5. Scope of the Review 5.1. In relation to 4.1(1) above, the focus of the review will be on research into demographics within Renfrewshire; in particular, the elderly population and current trends for existing service demand. 5.2. In relation to 4.1(2) above, the focus of the review will be on assessing the financial and non-financial implications in relation to the provision of free bulk uplifts for the elderly.
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5.3. In relation to 4.1(3) above, the focus on the review will be exploring existing or potential options available to the elderly within Renfrewshire through partner organisations such as the third sector. 5.4. In relation to 4.1(3) above, consideration will be given to the existing services provided within neighbouring local authorities in relation to free bulk uplifts for the elderly to consider any benefits for Renfrewshire. 5.5. For clarity, the level of charges applied to bulk uplifts within Renfrewshire is outwith the scope of this review. 6. Demographics within Renfrewshire 6.1. To continue with the review a definition was required on the age to be used in relation to the term ‘elderly’ solely within the context of this review. It is proposed in relation to this review that we utilise the age of 65 for both men and women as being the most common age historically utilised for defining services for ‘elderly’ people. Therefore, the age of 65 will be assumed in relation to the term elderly for the duration of this review where this is practical. If an exception to this age is used, it will be clearly noted within the review. 6.2. Here we explore the demographics in relation to Renfrewshire, in particular the elderly population and likely service trends based on this data; this is in relation to scope objective 5.1. 6.3. Appendix 1, includes population projections developed by National Records of Scotland (NRS), utilising the most up to date published records at the time of preparation. This data forecasts the expected population across Renfrewshire for all ages from birth to 90+ between 2018 and 2043. This information has been used to provide analysis on the likely trends for the elderly based on the demographics for Renfrewshire. 6.4. The appendix 1 includes an analysis of the number and percentage of 65+ residents across Renfrewshire and forecast for each year. This starts at 18.7% and 33,288 of our residents in 2018 and rises to a high of 24.9% and 45,976 residents by 2040. 6.5. In the table below I have provided an extract from Appendix 1, analysing the proportion of tenants 65+ across the period 2023-2028. This clearly shows an upwards trend in the volume and percentage of the Renfrewshire population within the 65+ range across this period. Renfrewshire Population Extract 2023-2028 Category 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Overall Population 180,266 180,689 181,091 181,502 181,870 182,256 65 Plus 36,144 36,877 37,586 38,496 39,350 40,125 % 65 Plus 20.05% 20.41% 20.76% 21.21% 21.64% 22.02%
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6.6. In order to consider this in the context of Scotland, information, again from the NRS population estimates, has been used to compare Renfrewshire nationally in relation to our elderly residents. Detailed analysis is contained in Appendix 2. 6.7. This shows that Renfrewshire had the eighth lowest as a percentage of population classified as elderly, at 19.2%. While this is close to the Scottish average of 19.6%, there is a wide variation from a low of 13.6%, in Glasgow to a high of 26.6%, in Dumfries and Galloway. The table below is a summary comparison with Scotland and our bordering authorities. Scottish Context Mid-2021 Organisation Population 65 Plus % 65 Plus Scotland 5,479,900 1,073,861 19.60% North Ayrshire 134,220 31,294 23.32% Inverclyde 76,700 16,721 21.80% East Renfrewshire 96,580 19,846 20.55% West Dunbartonshire 87,790 17,142 19.53% Renfrewshire 179,940 34,585 19.22% Glasgow City 635,130 86,604 13.64% 7. Provision of free bulk uplifts for the elderly 7.1. This section looks at the trends in income for special uplifts from 2020/21 to 2022/23. The information has been analysed by recharges to the HRA and for charges direct to Renfrewshire residents. Income Trends Bulk Uplift Financial Year HRA Tenants Residents Total 2020/2021 £159,440.30 £55,866.00 £215,306.30 2021/2022 £111,655.35 £62,308.80 £173,964.15 2022/2023 £109,928.10 £71,079.98 £181,008.08 Average £127,007.92 £63,084.93 £190,092.84 7.2. The service is managed through the deployment of a driver, waste collector and a specialised vehicle. The demand fluctuates within the table, and a major influence on this was due to COVID-19 and the post-pandemic recovery. 7.3. In order to assess the current demand for the service, a sample analysis of 12 weeks of requests from the period 9 January 2023 to 2 April 2023 has been reviewed. The analysis below shows that based on total orders we are averaging 15.3 orders daily and 74.5 items per day. Sample Service Demand Week Special Uplifts Ground Clears Total Uplifts Daily Average Uplifts Total Items Daily Average Items 1 98 13 111 15.9 544 77.7
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2 85 11 96 13.7 407 58.1 3 88 9 97 13.9 472 67.4 4 85 8 93 13.3 425 60.7 5 84 5 89 12.7 479 68.4 6 107 13 120 17.1 520 74.3 7 114 7 121 17.3 692 98.9 8 123 18 141 20.1 637 91.0 9 113 14 127 18.1 656 93.7 10 77 6 83 11.9 418 59.7 11 102 17 119 17.0 551 78.7 12 81 3 84 12.0 455 65.0 Total 1,157 124 1,281 15.3 6,256 74.5 7.4. Operational managers have confirmed that any significant recurring increase in demand due to a free or discounted service could not be managed without either an additional team or by using an external partner to manage the increased demand. 7.5. The impact of creating a free bulk uplift service for the Elderly is likely to increase demand. This increase could be managed in two ways: by increasing capacity either internally or externally, both of which bring additional costs. 7.6. If we assume that demand increases beyond the current levels and an additional team consisting of a driver, waste collector, and specialised vehicle is required, then an additional cost of around £116,500 per year is estimated. This equates to around £320 per day in extra costs for Renfrewshire Council. In the past, external contractors have been used to aid in reducing the post- pandemic backlog, and this was at a cost of around £40 per uplift; however, costs are likely to have increased since then due to inflation. 7.7. If a policy of free uplifts for the Elderly was introduced, what sort of impact could this have based on demand levels, and how would this impact the service? Currently, we do not require the age of the requestor; therefore, we do not hold this information to analyse our existing data. Therefore, to gauge current demand, if we use the age profile data that we identified in 6.7 above, and start with 19.22% of our overall population are classed as elderly, and then adjust this to remove under 18s we get an estimate of 23.64% of our potential existing customers as Elderly. If this is assumed reflective of existing service demand then we can estimate a drop in income of £42,790.31 before any demand increases or further assumptions are made, as detailed in the table below. Loss of Income Estimate Impact on income 2022/23 levels HRA Tenants Residents Total 2022/23 Actual £109,928.10 £71,079.98 £181,008.08 23.64% Reduction £25,987.00 £16,803.31 £42,790.31 2022/23 Revised £83,941.10 £54,276.67 £138,217.77
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7.8. It is, however, possible that the actual percentage of current service recipients could be higher than the demographic average due to the type of service provided and that this loss could be higher. 7.9. In summary, the impact of introducing a policy for free bulk uplifts for the Elderly could result in a reduction in income (minimum £0.043m) and an increased demand for the service resulting in a requirement to increase capacity at an additional cost (which could rise initially to £0.117m), bringing the total additional annual cost to potentially £0.160m. 8. Options available to the elderly within Renfrewshire 8.1. In this section we explore existing or potential options available to the elderly through partner organisations such as the third sector within Renfrewshire; this is in relation to scope objective 5.3. 8.2. Under the Waste Scotland Regulations, Councils are allowed to charge for collection of charities waste, but not the processing of their waste. A charge levied at 55% of the commercial waste charge, is applicable for charity collections, on the basis that we will be charging for collection only, this charge was effective from 1 April 2023. The Council’s waste advisors are working with charities this year to support these revised arrangements. 8.3. The Council currently provides information regarding the potential to recycle items of bulk uplift. As residents navigate through the special uplift request form on the internet, information is provided on the RE-USE scheme. 8.3.1 Items in good condition can be donated free of charge to a re-use scheme. Before arranging an, residents are asked to consider donating any items in good condition to a re-use scheme, and the national helpline for more information is listed as 0800 0665 820. Examples of items that re-use organisations will accept: • Sofas and armchairs (fire regulation tags must be attached) • Beds and mattresses (fire regulation tags must be attached) • Wardrobes and chest of drawers • Dining furniture • Fridges, freezers, electric cookers, washing machines and tumble dryers • Bicycles 8.3.2 The Zero Waste Scotland website allows residents to enter a postcode to find a list of charitable organisations in the area that can be contacted to discuss re- use options. This can be found at: https://www.zerowastescotland.org.uk/resources/pass-items-through-reuse- tool 8.4. Care & Repair Renfrewshire deliver free services to people who are older or have disabilities and live in Renfrewshire. This includes a minor repairs service;
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however, it has been confirmed that removal of bulk uplift items is not one of the services currently provided. 8.5. This is not an exhaustive list of all organisations that may work in local areas who could be of possible assistance to Elderly or vulnerable residents one further example is the Darkwood Crew in the Ferguslie Park area. 8.6. There are five recycling centres across Renfrewshire where residents can recycle, re-use and dispose of a wide range of household materials directly. Residents must bring proof of residency in Renfrewshire, like a Council Tax bill or driving licence, to all sites to gain access. 8.7. All council tenants including the Elderly are entitled to two special uplifts per year as part of their rent charge, this is achieved by providing their rent reference number when making their booking. 9. Other Local Authorities service provision 9.1. Here we explore our neighbouring local authorities in relation to bulk uplifts service provided. We also look nationally to see whether any free or reduced services are available, for either the elderly specifically, or for any other service users; this is in relation to scope objective 5.4. 9.2. A comparison of the charges and policies of our neighbouring authorities has been provided for context. It can be noted that none of our neighbouring authorities are currently providing any exemptions for these charges to the elderly or for any other demographic. The table below provides a summary of the common charges for comparison. Local Context 2022/23 Comparison Organisation Standard Charge Additional Context Renfrewshire £35.35 1 to 20 items with a cost of £35.35 for white goods (per item) North Ayrshire £25.20 Up to five items with an additional £5.04 for each additional item. Inverclyde £26.10 1-5 Items £26.10 (Minimum Charge), 6-10 Items £52.25. East Renfrewshire £51.85 Items should be manageable for a 2-person crew to collect within a 15-minute time slot. West Dunbartonshire £24.36 1 to 9 items with over ten items will result in a time charge rate. Glasgow City £5.00 1 item per £5, this covers standard items and large electrical items. 9.3. A review of the services provided by all 32 local authorities, has highlighted only Stirling Council currently offers an exemption for the elderly, in this case 60+ residents. If all members of a household are over 60 years old, they will collect up to two special uplifts free of charge each year. The standard charge is £45.60 for up to five items.
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9.4. Two authorities currently operate a discount scheme for residents who are on Housing benefit or Council Tax Reduction (CTR). At the time of request the resident inputs their benefit number to obtain the discount. At present no other examples of any discounted bulk uplift services have been identified across Scotland. Benefit Discount Schemes Organisation Standard Charge Additional Context Aberdeen City £30.00 50% reduction if a resident is entitled to Housing or Council Tax Reduction. Aberdeenshire Council £29.72 60% reduction if a resident is entitled to Housing or Council Tax Reduction. 9.5. Although not within the initial scope of this review it was identified, during the investigation, that two Scottish Local Authorities provide a discounted Bulk Uplift service. This is not just for the Elderly but for any resident who is in receipt of Housing benefit or Council Tax Reduction. 9.6. In order to assess the potential impact of a similar policy in Renfrewshire the latest Council Tax Reduction (CTR) information has been analysed for Renfrewshire, split between HRA and other residents who are in receipt of any amount of CTR. The table below shows that the percentage of HRA tenants claiming CTR is 51.55% and 12.31% of other tenancies. 2022/23 Year End Council Tax Reduction Data CTR Analysis HRA Tenants Residents Total Number of Claims 6,297 9,671 15,968 Stock Number 12,216 78,566 90,782 % CTR 51.55% 12.31% 17.59% 9.7. The table below outlines a high-level assumption on the potential cost of implementing this type of policy. This is based purely on the CTR data from above and assumes only a potential loss of income of 51.55% for HRA tenants and 12.31% for other residents of Renfrewshire. This has been modelled on both 50% and 60% reductions, in line with the two schemes identified nationally. Income Impact Discount Scheme Renfrewshire Impact on income 2022/23 levels HRA Tenants Residents Total No discount 100% charge £109,928.10 £71,079.98 £181,008.08 50% discount on CTR% £28,332.40 £4,374.76 £32,707.16 60% discount on CTR% £33,998.88 £5,249.71 £39,248.59
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9.8. The table shows a potential loss of income of £32,707.16 to £39,248.59 assuming existing income levels and no change to demand assumptions for uplifts. If this policy was implemented and demand exceeded the current operational capacity, then additional costs as highlighted in 7.6 could similarly be expected. 9.9. In summary the impact of introducing a policy for discounted bulk uplifts for CTR eligible could result in a reduction in income (minimum £0.033m) and an increased demand for the service resulting in a requirement to increase capacity at an additional cost (rising to £0.117m), bringing the total additional annual cost to potentially £0.150m. 10. Key Findings 10.1. The demographic information has identified that the over 65 population in Renfrewshire is forecast to increase in both numbers and as a percentage of the overall population in the coming years. 10.2. A review of the services provided by all 32 local authorities, has highlighted only Stirling Council currently offers an exemption for the elderly, in this case 60+ residents. 10.3. Two other authorities currently operate a discount scheme for residents who are on Housing benefit or Council Tax Reduction (CTR). 10.4. No other examples of any discounted bulk uplift services have been identified across Scotland. 10.5. The cost of implementing a free bulk uplift service for the Elderly within Renfrewshire is estimated as an additional recurring cost of a minimum £0.160m per year. 10.6. Items in good condition can be donated free of charge to a re-use scheme. 10.7. There are five recycling centres across Renfrewshire where you can recycle, re-use and dispose of a wide range of household materials directly. 10.8. The third sector offers potential alternatives to the disposal of waste. 11. Recommendations 11.1. It is recommended that the service Increases awareness of the options available to all service users including HRA tenants through a review of the existing bulk uplift request internet page. 11.2. It is recommended that this includes a visible and direct link to the Zero Waste Scotland website to improve access to details of third sector organisations. 11.3. It is recommended that this review should include increased promotion of the facilities available by the Council where residents can recycle, re-use and dispose of bulk directly.
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11.4. It is recommended that the tenancy termination process includes highlighting the services available to HRA tenants to assist in the clearance of properties prior to the end of the tenancy. 11.5. As this report does not propose any policy or service change, no equality and human rights impact assessments are required at this time. However, if any change to policy or service position were to be proposed, then full equality and human rights impact assessments would be required and assessment made in line with the Council’s Fairer Scotland duty by the service responsible for bulk uplifts. In addition, such a change to the service would increase the Council’s medium term financial deficit and would require to be funded within existing budgets, for example by increasing charges to remaining users. ___________________________________________________________________ Implications of this report 1. Financial - The review highlights the additional costs and loss of income to Renfrewshire Council which could occur in the event of changes to the current arrangements and charges for the bulk uplift service, amounting to an estimated £0.160m per year. This could rise depending on the level of demand experienced in future. 2. HR and Organisational Development - None directly arising from this report. 3. Community/Council Planning - None directly arising from this report. 4. Legal - None directly arising from this report. 5. Property/Assets - None directly arising from this report. 6. Information Technology - None directly arising from this report. 7. Equality and Human Rights - The recommendations contained within this report have not been assessed in relation to their impact on equalities and human rights as the paper sets out the scope for a review process rather than proposing any changes to services. If any change to policy or service position were to be considered in future, then full equality and human rights impact assessments will be undertaken. 8. Health and Safety - None directly arising from this report. 9. Procurement - None directly arising from this report.
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10. Risk - The potential risk that the Council will overspend its approved budgets for the year will be managed at a Council-wide level by the Chief Executive and Directors. 11. Privacy Impact - None directly arising from this report. 12. 13. Cosla Policy Position - Not applicable. Climate Risk - None directly arising from this report. __________________________________________________________________ List of Background Papers Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Annual Programme approved 22 August 2022. Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 23 January 2023. Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 13 March 2023. Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 22 May 2023. Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 26 September 2023. Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board Charges for Bulk Items Uplift for the Elderly 6 November 2023. The foregoing background papers will be retained within Finance and Resources for inspection by the public for the prescribed period of four years from the date of the meeting. The contact officer within the service is Finance Business Partner John Kilpatrick who can be contacted at john.kilpatrick@renfrewshire.gov.uk __________________________________________________________________ Author: John Kilpatrick, Finance Business Partner
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Appendix 1a 2018-based principal population projections by sex, single year of age and year (2018-2030) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 All ages 177,790 178,294 178,766 179,276 179,761 180,266 180,689 181,091 181,502 181,870 182,256 182,597 182,930 0 1,754 1,640 1,667 1,670 1,671 1,675 1,679 1,681 1,685 1,676 1,675 1,671 1,660 1 1,773 1,751 1,648 1,675 1,678 1,676 1,682 1,685 1,687 1,691 1,682 1,681 1,677 2 1,815 1,797 1,775 1,673 1,701 1,704 1,702 1,709 1,712 1,714 1,718 1,709 1,708 3 1,786 1,826 1,811 1,785 1,682 1,709 1,714 1,711 1,718 1,721 1,723 1,727 1,718 4 1,894 1,790 1,832 1,816 1,791 1,690 1,714 1,720 1,718 1,725 1,728 1,730 1,734 5 1,976 1,900 1,797 1,836 1,820 1,794 1,695 1,718 1,723 1,721 1,728 1,731 1,733 6 1,983 1,991 1,915 1,812 1,851 1,831 1,805 1,707 1,731 1,736 1,734 1,741 1,744 7 2,001 1,996 2,001 1,923 1,825 1,860 1,840 1,813 1,715 1,739 1,744 1,742 1,749 8 1,898 2,016 2,013 2,016 1,935 1,841 1,875 1,854 1,825 1,727 1,751 1,756 1,754 9 1,909 1,894 2,017 2,011 2,013 1,932 1,838 1,873 1,851 1,822 1,723 1,748 1,752 10 2,009 1,923 1,908 2,030 2,024 2,027 1,945 1,852 1,887 1,864 1,836 1,736 1,761 11 1,879 2,020 1,931 1,917 2,039 2,037 2,038 1,955 1,863 1,898 1,874 1,845 1,746 12 1,937 1,883 2,025 1,936 1,923 2,047 2,042 2,043 1,960 1,868 1,903 1,879 1,849 13 1,906 1,949 1,896 2,033 1,946 1,933 2,058 2,052 2,053 1,970 1,878 1,913 1,888 14 1,854 1,924 1,969 1,919 2,057 1,969 1,953 2,080 2,074 2,075 1,992 1,901 1,935 15 1,797 1,865 1,933 1,977 1,929 2,068 1,981 1,963 2,092 2,085 2,085 2,003 1,912 16 1,815 1,802 1,870 1,938 1,978 1,935 2,072 1,985 1,967 2,096 2,089 2,088 2,006 17 1,918 1,805 1,794 1,860 1,928 1,969 1,926 2,063 1,976 1,958 2,089 2,082 2,078 18 1,902 1,869 1,759 1,753 1,817 1,885 1,922 1,880 2,015 1,931 1,913 2,041 2,034 19 1,893 1,835 1,797 1,687 1,685 1,747 1,815 1,846 1,809 1,937 1,859 1,838 1,964 20 2,017 1,933 1,867 1,833 1,717 1,726 1,779 1,846 1,879 1,843 1,973 1,894 1,874 21 2,156 2,084 2,002 1,931 1,896 1,778 1,790 1,844 1,910 1,943 1,909 2,038 1,961 22 2,112 2,207 2,131 2,053 1,981 1,942 1,827 1,836 1,891 1,957 1,989 1,957 2,088 23 2,147 2,132 2,218 2,144 2,070 1,998 1,955 1,839 1,849 1,904 1,970 2,002 1,972 24 2,256 2,167 2,150 2,240 2,168 2,091 2,018 1,975 1,858 1,868 1,921 1,986 2,020 25 2,303 2,267 2,177 2,161 2,250 2,178 2,099 2,027 1,983 1,867 1,877 1,929 1,994 26 2,471 2,334 2,296 2,211 2,200 2,283 2,210 2,132 2,060 2,014 1,898 1,912 1,963 27 2,361 2,482 2,340 2,307 2,221 2,212 2,292 2,217 2,141 2,069 2,022 1,907 1,922 28 2,349 2,396 2,514 2,369 2,335 2,245 2,235 2,316 2,240 2,164 2,090 2,042 1,926 29 2,241 2,359 2,403 2,527 2,370 2,335 2,250 2,239 2,317 2,243 2,166 2,092 2,044 30 2,408 2,292 2,405 2,463 2,586 2,427 2,381 2,298 2,290 2,364 2,291 2,214 2,137 31 2,442 2,443 2,343 2,450 2,518 2,638 2,474 2,426 2,346 2,338 2,411 2,337 2,260 32 2,194 2,461 2,481 2,386 2,490 2,561 2,677 2,513 2,462 2,381 2,376 2,448 2,374 33 2,258 2,249 2,514 2,543 2,452 2,550 2,629 2,744 2,576 2,520 2,440 2,435 2,504 34 2,213 2,288 2,285 2,544 2,577 2,491 2,586 2,668 2,781 2,609 2,554 2,475 2,469 35 2,412 2,231 2,310 2,308 2,563 2,597 2,513 2,609 2,695 2,806 2,632 2,575 2,496 36 2,239 2,429 2,248 2,333 2,332 2,577 2,616 2,535 2,630 2,719 2,830 2,652 2,593 37 2,414 2,265 2,456 2,285 2,372 2,373 2,609 2,655 2,575 2,671 2,762 2,871 2,689 38 2,181 2,420 2,274 2,454 2,292 2,382 2,381 2,611 2,658 2,581 2,677 2,770 2,877 39 2,102 2,190 2,414 2,276 2,452 2,294 2,386 2,384 2,609 2,659 2,583 2,678 2,773 40 1,947 2,117 2,208 2,422 2,287 2,466 2,308 2,401 2,399 2,620 2,673 2,597 2,692 41 1,872 1,963 2,136 2,228 2,433 2,304 2,481 2,322 2,418 2,414 2,635 2,690 2,614 42 1,961 1,890 1,978 2,148 2,238 2,441 2,316 2,491 2,333 2,431 2,428 2,645 2,703 43 2,101 1,967 1,895 1,984 2,154 2,244 2,441 2,320 2,494 2,337 2,436 2,432 2,648 44 2,126 2,099 1,969 1,900 1,987 2,156 2,244 2,439 2,321 2,493 2,337 2,437 2,433 45 2,231 2,123 2,098 1,970 1,900 1,988 2,158 2,247 2,436 2,322 2,491 2,338 2,439 46 2,397 2,233 2,124 2,101 1,975 1,904 1,992 2,164 2,254 2,437 2,330 2,494 2,342 47 2,563 2,399 2,239 2,130 2,108 1,983 1,912 2,000 2,174 2,264 2,444 2,339 2,502 48 2,705 2,569 2,404 2,243 2,134 2,113 1,988 1,916 2,007 2,180 2,272 2,448 2,346 49 2,668 2,701 2,566 2,400 2,239 2,131 2,112 1,987 1,915 2,006 2,179 2,273 2,446 50 2,812 2,666 2,699 2,565 2,398 2,236 2,130 2,113 1,988 1,915 2,007 2,181 2,276 51 2,810 2,808 2,664 2,700 2,566 2,402 2,237 2,132 2,114 1,991 1,919 2,009 2,184 52 2,819 2,798 2,796 2,653 2,688 2,555 2,394 2,230 2,123 2,106 1,985 1,911 2,003 53 2,917 2,810 2,791 2,789 2,648 2,684 2,552 2,391 2,229 2,121 2,104 1,984 1,910 54 2,811 2,899 2,797 2,778 2,773 2,635 2,671 2,540 2,379 2,220 2,113 2,095 1,974 55 2,733 2,807 2,896 2,795 2,774 2,770 2,633 2,667 2,537 2,377 2,218 2,110 2,094 56 2,800 2,720 2,794 2,883 2,782 2,761 2,759 2,622 2,655 2,529 2,370 2,211 2,103 57 2,815 2,782 2,699 2,774 2,860 2,762 2,742 2,738 2,603 2,636 2,512 2,354 2,194 58 2,576 2,796 2,767 2,686 2,758 2,845 2,746 2,729 2,724 2,590 2,623 2,501 2,345 59 2,575 2,559 2,776 2,747 2,669 2,743 2,826 2,726 2,711 2,707 2,573 2,606 2,486 60 2,528 2,549 2,535 2,749 2,719 2,646 2,719 2,800 2,701 2,688 2,682 2,550 2,584 61 2,338 2,508 2,530 2,518 2,732 2,702 2,630 2,703 2,783 2,684 2,673 2,667 2,536 62 2,222 2,322 2,486 2,511 2,499 2,711 2,682 2,611 2,683 2,761 2,664 2,653 2,648 63 2,130 2,200 2,297 2,458 2,482 2,476 2,683 2,654 2,584 2,657 2,734 2,638 2,628 64 2,070 2,108 2,179 2,275 2,433 2,457 2,453 2,658 2,630 2,560 2,634 2,710 2,615 65 1,980 2,051 2,090 2,161 2,255 2,410 2,434 2,430 2,633 2,607 2,538 2,612 2,686 66 1,862 1,957 2,027 2,064 2,135 2,228 2,383 2,407 2,403 2,606 2,580 2,513 2,585 67 1,999 1,835 1,928 2,001 2,036 2,106 2,199 2,353 2,378 2,374 2,575 2,551 2,484 68 1,871 1,967 1,805 1,897 1,969 2,004 2,074 2,165 2,318 2,343 2,339 2,538 2,515 69 1,951 1,837 1,932 1,772 1,864 1,935 1,970 2,039 2,129 2,281 2,305 2,301 2,499 70 1,913 1,917 1,809 1,903 1,745 1,837 1,907 1,940 2,011 2,098 2,250 2,272 2,271 71 2,173 1,875 1,878 1,772 1,864 1,711 1,800 1,870 1,903 1,973 2,059 2,209 2,232 72 1,565 2,125 1,834 1,839 1,735 1,826 1,676 1,764 1,833 1,865 1,936 2,019 2,167 73 1,560 1,522 2,068 1,783 1,788 1,687 1,779 1,633 1,719 1,787 1,819 1,889 1,970 74 1,572 1,524 1,486 2,015 1,739 1,745 1,648 1,738 1,596 1,681 1,748 1,780 1,850 75 1,375 1,521 1,476 1,440 1,951 1,684 1,691 1,597 1,686 1,548 1,631 1,697 1,730 76 1,283 1,325 1,468 1,423 1,389 1,884 1,625 1,633 1,544 1,630 1,497 1,578 1,643 77 1,238 1,236 1,276 1,413 1,370 1,337 1,819 1,568 1,578 1,490 1,575 1,447 1,525 78 1,136 1,192 1,190 1,228 1,360 1,319 1,288 1,753 1,512 1,523 1,439 1,522 1,398 79 1,158 1,083 1,135 1,134 1,170 1,298 1,258 1,230 1,675 1,445 1,456 1,376 1,456 80 1,090 1,104 1,031 1,079 1,079 1,113 1,235 1,197 1,172 1,597 1,377 1,388 1,313 81 1,025 1,027 1,037 971 1,015 1,017 1,049 1,164 1,129 1,105 1,510 1,301 1,313 82 947 966 965 976 914 956 959 989 1,097 1,065 1,043 1,426 1,229 83 887 878 894 893 903 848 885 890 917 1,018 989 969 1,329 84 780 820 809 827 824 835 786 818 825 850 943 916 900 85 631 715 748 739 755 754 765 720 748 756 779 865 839 86 598 572 646 675 668 683 682 692 653 678 685 707 785 87 536 534 507 574 599 593 608 607 615 582 603 611 632 88 468 470 466 443 501 522 517 532 533 539 511 529 538 89 370 406 405 401 385 434 452 449 462 463 469 445 461 90 and over 1,320 1,337 1,347 1,361 1,377 1,378 1,388 1,408 1,427 1,446 1,469 1,487 1,497 65+ 33,288 33,796 34,257 34,784 35,390 36,144 36,877 37,586 38,496 39,350 40,125 40,948 41,847 % 65+ 18.7% 19.0% 19.2% 19.4% 19.7% 20.1% 20.4% 20.8% 21.2% 21.6% 22.0% 22.4% 22.9%
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Appendix 1b 2018-based principal population projections by sex, single year of age and year (2031-2043) 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 All ages 183,199 183,460 183,720 183,922 184,111 184,306 184,472 184,662 184,817 184,976 185,098 185,239 185,360 0 1,652 1,646 1,648 1,637 1,635 1,633 1,632 1,641 1,645 1,649 1,651 1,654 1,657 1 1,666 1,658 1,652 1,654 1,643 1,641 1,639 1,638 1,647 1,651 1,655 1,657 1,660 2 1,704 1,693 1,685 1,679 1,681 1,670 1,668 1,666 1,665 1,674 1,678 1,682 1,684 3 1,717 1,713 1,702 1,694 1,688 1,690 1,679 1,677 1,675 1,674 1,683 1,687 1,691 4 1,725 1,724 1,720 1,709 1,701 1,695 1,697 1,686 1,684 1,682 1,681 1,690 1,694 5 1,737 1,728 1,727 1,723 1,712 1,704 1,698 1,700 1,689 1,687 1,685 1,684 1,693 6 1,746 1,750 1,741 1,740 1,736 1,725 1,717 1,711 1,713 1,702 1,700 1,698 1,697 7 1,752 1,754 1,758 1,749 1,748 1,744 1,733 1,725 1,719 1,721 1,710 1,708 1,706 8 1,762 1,764 1,766 1,771 1,762 1,761 1,757 1,746 1,738 1,732 1,734 1,723 1,721 9 1,750 1,759 1,760 1,762 1,767 1,759 1,758 1,753 1,742 1,734 1,728 1,730 1,719 10 1,765 1,763 1,772 1,773 1,775 1,780 1,772 1,771 1,766 1,755 1,747 1,741 1,743 11 1,771 1,775 1,773 1,782 1,783 1,785 1,790 1,782 1,781 1,776 1,765 1,757 1,751 12 1,750 1,775 1,779 1,777 1,786 1,787 1,789 1,794 1,786 1,785 1,780 1,769 1,761 13 1,858 1,759 1,784 1,788 1,786 1,795 1,796 1,798 1,803 1,795 1,794 1,789 1,778 14 1,911 1,879 1,781 1,806 1,810 1,808 1,817 1,818 1,820 1,825 1,817 1,816 1,811 15 1,946 1,922 1,889 1,791 1,816 1,820 1,818 1,827 1,828 1,830 1,835 1,827 1,826 16 1,916 1,949 1,926 1,892 1,795 1,820 1,824 1,822 1,831 1,832 1,834 1,839 1,831 17 1,997 1,907 1,940 1,917 1,882 1,785 1,810 1,814 1,812 1,821 1,822 1,824 1,829 18 2,029 1,952 1,862 1,895 1,871 1,834 1,741 1,765 1,769 1,767 1,776 1,777 1,779 19 1,955 1,949 1,876 1,792 1,823 1,796 1,762 1,673 1,697 1,702 1,700 1,708 1,709 20 2,000 1,991 1,984 1,910 1,828 1,859 1,830 1,796 1,706 1,732 1,737 1,734 1,742 21 1,940 2,066 2,058 2,050 1,975 1,896 1,926 1,895 1,861 1,771 1,797 1,802 1,799 22 2,013 1,993 2,119 2,112 2,102 2,027 1,948 1,979 1,946 1,912 1,821 1,848 1,853 23 2,102 2,030 2,010 2,134 2,126 2,115 2,042 1,964 1,994 1,962 1,925 1,836 1,864 24 1,991 2,117 2,052 2,030 2,154 2,145 2,133 2,065 1,986 2,012 1,983 1,944 1,860 25 2,026 2,002 2,125 2,064 2,041 2,162 2,154 2,142 2,073 1,997 2,022 1,993 1,953 26 2,026 2,057 2,036 2,157 2,097 2,074 2,197 2,185 2,174 2,107 2,034 2,057 2,027 27 1,972 2,035 2,064 2,047 2,166 2,109 2,087 2,207 2,196 2,183 2,118 2,046 2,068 28 1,943 1,994 2,054 2,084 2,070 2,190 2,135 2,113 2,232 2,220 2,206 2,142 2,072 29 1,927 1,944 1,995 2,055 2,085 2,074 2,193 2,139 2,115 2,237 2,223 2,208 2,147 30 2,086 1,969 1,986 2,040 2,100 2,128 2,119 2,240 2,189 2,163 2,287 2,270 2,254 31 2,179 2,127 2,012 2,028 2,083 2,140 2,171 2,162 2,285 2,236 2,210 2,335 2,316 32 2,297 2,213 2,159 2,044 2,061 2,116 2,174 2,205 2,198 2,321 2,273 2,246 2,374 33 2,432 2,353 2,267 2,211 2,095 2,113 2,168 2,227 2,258 2,252 2,376 2,331 2,303 34 2,537 2,464 2,386 2,295 2,240 2,125 2,144 2,198 2,256 2,288 2,283 2,408 2,364 35 2,490 2,557 2,485 2,406 2,312 2,257 2,141 2,161 2,214 2,273 2,306 2,303 2,427 36 2,515 2,508 2,573 2,501 2,423 2,327 2,270 2,156 2,175 2,228 2,288 2,321 2,321 37 2,629 2,554 2,547 2,610 2,539 2,461 2,363 2,306 2,191 2,210 2,264 2,326 2,359 38 2,693 2,632 2,558 2,551 2,614 2,543 2,466 2,367 2,312 2,196 2,216 2,270 2,332 39 2,878 2,692 2,630 2,557 2,550 2,612 2,542 2,465 2,365 2,311 2,196 2,217 2,270 40 2,789 2,892 2,704 2,644 2,570 2,564 2,625 2,554 2,477 2,375 2,322 2,207 2,229 41 2,709 2,807 2,909 2,720 2,659 2,585 2,578 2,639 2,568 2,491 2,388 2,337 2,220 42 2,628 2,722 2,822 2,922 2,734 2,671 2,597 2,589 2,650 2,579 2,503 2,398 2,346 43 2,705 2,633 2,726 2,826 2,925 2,737 2,674 2,601 2,593 2,654 2,583 2,508 2,401 44 2,646 2,704 2,632 2,726 2,825 2,923 2,736 2,671 2,599 2,592 2,651 2,581 2,506 45 2,434 2,645 2,704 2,633 2,726 2,827 2,921 2,735 2,671 2,598 2,592 2,651 2,580 46 2,446 2,439 2,646 2,709 2,639 2,733 2,835 2,926 2,739 2,676 2,603 2,596 2,655 47 2,350 2,454 2,449 2,654 2,719 2,648 2,742 2,845 2,936 2,748 2,685 2,611 2,605 48 2,507 2,356 2,460 2,456 2,659 2,726 2,655 2,749 2,853 2,943 2,754 2,690 2,617 49 2,347 2,505 2,355 2,459 2,456 2,658 2,725 2,655 2,749 2,853 2,942 2,752 2,689 50 2,445 2,347 2,504 2,355 2,459 2,456 2,656 2,725 2,655 2,749 2,854 2,943 2,752 51 2,281 2,447 2,349 2,505 2,357 2,461 2,459 2,658 2,728 2,660 2,754 2,859 2,945 52 2,178 2,276 2,441 2,344 2,499 2,352 2,455 2,454 2,652 2,722 2,657 2,750 2,855 53 2,002 2,177 2,274 2,437 2,342 2,496 2,349 2,452 2,453 2,647 2,718 2,653 2,746 54 1,900 1,994 2,168 2,265 2,425 2,332 2,485 2,339 2,442 2,442 2,634 2,707 2,642 55 1,973 1,898 1,993 2,168 2,266 2,425 2,333 2,483 2,340 2,443 2,443 2,633 2,708 56 2,088 1,969 1,894 1,988 2,164 2,261 2,418 2,329 2,476 2,336 2,439 2,438 2,627 57 2,090 2,076 1,959 1,884 1,978 2,154 2,250 2,405 2,316 2,463 2,323 2,426 2,425 58 2,183 2,080 2,067 1,948 1,874 1,969 2,145 2,242 2,395 2,309 2,454 2,316 2,418 59 2,330 2,167 2,065 2,053 1,935 1,861 1,956 2,132 2,230 2,380 2,296 2,438 2,303 60 2,464 2,311 2,150 2,048 2,036 1,919 1,846 1,941 2,118 2,215 2,363 2,280 2,420 61 2,569 2,451 2,298 2,138 2,039 2,027 1,912 1,839 1,933 2,111 2,206 2,353 2,273 62 2,517 2,552 2,435 2,282 2,124 2,026 2,016 1,901 1,828 1,923 2,101 2,196 2,341 63 2,623 2,494 2,529 2,412 2,261 2,106 2,010 2,000 1,887 1,814 1,909 2,087 2,180 64 2,605 2,602 2,474 2,508 2,392 2,244 2,089 1,995 1,984 1,872 1,800 1,895 2,070 65 2,593 2,583 2,582 2,455 2,489 2,374 2,228 2,074 1,982 1,972 1,861 1,789 1,885 66 2,660 2,568 2,558 2,557 2,431 2,467 2,353 2,208 2,055 1,964 1,955 1,844 1,774 67 2,556 2,631 2,540 2,531 2,530 2,405 2,441 2,329 2,186 2,034 1,944 1,935 1,824 68 2,450 2,522 2,595 2,506 2,497 2,497 2,374 2,411 2,300 2,159 2,009 1,920 1,912 69 2,476 2,412 2,484 2,557 2,470 2,462 2,462 2,340 2,377 2,269 2,129 1,981 1,893 70 2,465 2,442 2,381 2,454 2,525 2,439 2,433 2,432 2,314 2,350 2,244 2,107 1,960 71 2,232 2,423 2,402 2,342 2,414 2,486 2,401 2,396 2,395 2,278 2,314 2,210 2,076 72 2,192 2,193 2,380 2,361 2,302 2,374 2,446 2,363 2,359 2,359 2,243 2,280 2,177 73 2,116 2,140 2,143 2,326 2,309 2,251 2,323 2,393 2,314 2,309 2,310 2,197 2,235 74 1,930 2,074 2,097 2,102 2,281 2,265 2,209 2,281 2,350 2,273 2,270 2,270 2,162 75 1,798 1,877 2,017 2,040 2,048 2,222 2,206 2,152 2,224 2,291 2,216 2,215 2,217 76 1,676 1,743 1,819 1,957 1,980 1,988 2,157 2,144 2,091 2,163 2,228 2,156 2,156 77 1,589 1,623 1,688 1,762 1,897 1,920 1,928 2,093 2,081 2,030 2,102 2,165 2,096 78 1,474 1,537 1,571 1,634 1,706 1,840 1,861 1,871 2,030 2,020 1,972 2,043 2,105 79 1,338 1,411 1,473 1,507 1,568 1,636 1,767 1,788 1,799 1,954 1,944 1,899 1,969 80 1,390 1,279 1,348 1,409 1,443 1,503 1,568 1,695 1,716 1,728 1,878 1,869 1,827 81 1,242 1,316 1,211 1,278 1,338 1,370 1,428 1,491 1,613 1,634 1,645 1,791 1,783 82 1,241 1,175 1,246 1,147 1,211 1,269 1,300 1,356 1,416 1,533 1,554 1,566 1,705 83 1,144 1,156 1,096 1,162 1,071 1,133 1,187 1,217 1,272 1,328 1,440 1,460 1,472 84 1,236 1,061 1,074 1,019 1,082 998 1,056 1,109 1,137 1,190 1,245 1,350 1,369 85 827 1,137 975 987 939 998 920 975 1,026 1,052 1,102 1,153 1,253 86 763 751 1,035 888 899 856 911 841 892 941 966 1,013 1,058 87 701 682 673 928 796 807 770 820 757 806 850 873 917 88 556 618 601 594 821 704 715 683 729 672 718 758 779 89 470 486 541 526 522 722 619 629 601 643 596 635 673 90 and over 1,490 1,505 1,542 1,592 1,618 1,654 1,842 1,933 1,993 2,024 2,049 2,058 2,085 65+ 42,605 43,345 44,072 44,621 45,187 45,640 45,905 46,024 46,009 45,976 45,784 45,537 45,362 % 65+ 23.3% 23.6% 24.0% 24.3% 24.5% 24.8% 24.9% 24.9% 24.9% 24.9% 24.7% 24.6% 24.5%
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Scotland Wide Analysis, mid-2021 sample Appendix 2 Area name All ages Aged 65+ % 65+ Dumfries and Galloway 148,790 39,562 26.6% Na h-Eileanan Siar 26,640 7,072 26.5% Argyll and Bute 86,220 22,777 26.4% South Ayrshire 112,450 29,362 26.1% Scottish Borders 116,020 29,655 25.6% Orkney Islands 22,540 5,540 24.6% Angus 116,120 28,464 24.5% Perth and Kinross 153,810 36,998 24.1% North Ayrshire 134,220 31,294 23.3% Highland 238,060 55,224 23.2% East Dunbartonshire 108,900 25,065 23.0% Moray 96,410 21,534 22.3% Inverclyde 76,700 16,721 21.8% Shetland Islands 22,940 4,924 21.5% Fife 374,730 79,415 21.2% East Ayrshire 122,020 25,574 21.0% East Lothian 109,580 22,865 20.9% Clackmannanshire 51,540 10,718 20.8% East Renfrewshire 96,580 19,846 20.5% Aberdeenshire 262,690 53,617 20.4% Stirling 93,470 18,791 20.1% South Lanarkshire 322,630 64,500 20.0% Scotland 5,479,900 1,073,861 19.6% West Dunbartonshire 87,790 17,142 19.5% Falkirk 160,700 31,115 19.4% Renfrewshire 179,940 34,585 19.2% Midlothian 94,680 17,867 18.9% Dundee City 147,720 26,243 17.8% North Lanarkshire 341,400 60,616 17.8% West Lothian 185,580 31,553 17.0% Aberdeen City 227,430 37,341 16.4% City of Edinburgh 526,470 81,277 15.4% Glasgow City 635,130 86,604 13.6%