Risk Report May_2025_FINAL
Renfrewshire Council · 19 May 2025
Back to Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board — 19 May 2025 and its agenda
Text extracted from the council's PDF. Layout and reading order may differ from the original.
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___________________________________________________________________ To: Audit, Risk and Scrutiny Board On: 19 May 2025 ___________________________________________________________________ Report by: Director of Finance and Resources ___________________________________________________________________ Heading: Risk Report, May 2025 ___________________________________________________________________ 1. Summary 1.1 Each year the Board considers and approves the council’s risks. 1.2 This paper sets out the latest position in managing the council’s risks, on entering the new financial year. The appendices attached provide details of: • 1: longer-term or imminent strategic risks • 2: longer-term significant corporate risks • 3: service risks • 4: assurance levels for business-as-usual risks 1.3 This paper does not include specific programme or project risks as each programme board has established governance arrangements for the ongoing monitoring of such risks throughout the lifetime of the various projects. ________________________________________________________________________________ 2. Recommendations 2.1 It is recommended that the Board approves the report. _________________________________________________________ 3. Background 3.1 The key areas of risk previously reported to the Audit, Risk & Scrutiny Board in November 2024 were: Strategic Risks: Very High Economy Very High Reducing inequalities High Migration and asylum related impacts High Global environmental sustainability and route to Net Zero High Strategic sustainable planning for people and assets Corporate Risks: Very High Successful Cyber Attack Very High Financial sustainability High Asset management High Financial Stability High Workforce planning, recruitment, and retention High Delivery of homeless duties Moderate National Care Service - governance and financial implications
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3.2 The strategic and corporate risk profile for the council in terms of its longer-term or imminent risks was: Evaluation: Low Moderate High Very High Total LT or Imm Strategic Risks: 00 00 03 02 05 LT or Imm Corporate Risks: 00 01 04 02 07 3.3 Service department risk profiles were as follows: Chief Executives Children’s Services Environment, Housing & Infrastructure Finance & Resources - - 1 - 7 - 1 - - 2 - 2 - 5 - 2 3.4 All risks were evaluated using the Council’s adopted risk matrix; this involves multiplying the likelihood of a risk event occurring by its potential impact. Risks are then evaluated as either ‘low’ (green), ‘moderate’ (yellow), ‘high’ (amber) or ‘very high’ (red). 3.5 Turning to 2025/2026, and as is our normal practice, we look to the annual Global Risk Report for risk context in terms of the immediate risk landscape, the next two year period and then ten year period. It is interesting to note how the top 5 global risks change over this timeframe, and it helps us to consider the wider horizon as we capture more immediate risks in the here and now. Two specific observations from the data presented in the report are that: a) for the first time in a number of years, economic risks do not feature in the top 5, at all, over the next 10-year period, however, on deeper analysis of the UK subset of data, the economy risk is still with us, and, b) while environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological risks feature in the top 5 over the next 2 years, when it comes to the 10 year point, all but one of the top risks are environmental. Source, Global Risk Report, World Economic Forum
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Source, Global Risk Report, World Economic Forum 3.6 Focusing on a national rather than global context, the council turns to the UK National Risk Register [2025] for further intelligence. The NRR provides reasonable worst-case scenarios for ‘acute’ risks, described as discrete events requiring an emergency response. As an example, the NRR reports that the risk of another pandemic is viewed as being in the range of 5-25% likelihood of occurrence with a catastrophic impact. It is important to note that what the NRR does not do, is provide any sense of imminency or timeframe. The World Health Organisation would be a source of intelligence for imminency. 3.7 Focusing more on local matters, which include the West Community Risk Register, and indeed those risks for which we have more influence, in terms of our ability to control or mitigate, the Corporate Management Team has captured, assessed and reviewed what we believe to be the material risks going forward, in relation to delivery of the council plan and related services, both in terms of strategic and corporate risks. 3.8 Individually, service directors have captured, assessed and reviewed their service- specific risks. This has been an area of increased focus over the past 12 months and accounts for an increase in visibility of the number of risks now being formally captured, particularly across Children’s Services and Environment, Housing and Infrastructure Services. 3.9 This section of the report sets out the movement in risks from the November 2024 report to now. • Risks added/ NEW Strategic - nil Corporate o CRR25.04.07 - Partnership financial sustainability – very high This risk was previously embedded within the council’s financial sustainability risk, however in recent months the significance of the Renfrewshire Health and Social Care Partnership’s (HSCP’s) financial position has developed to the extent that this area of financial risk merits being recorded on its own. The HSCP most recently reported a 2024/25 forecast overspend of £3.7m, which is expected to be funded from IJB reserve balances. The HSCP is also indicating
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that it faces significant financial pressures moving into 2025/26 and is currently expecting to achieve a balanced budget by relying heavily on the use of reserves and the delivery of savings options recently agreed by the IJB. o CRR25.04.13 – Misinformation/ disinformation – high The proliferation of information providers and social media and online channels has increased the risk of disinformation and misinformation spreading which can undermine trust in public bodies through spreading false information o CRR25.04.14 – Increasing scrutiny burden/ information requests – high Over recent months and years, the council has experienced and continues to experience significant pressure in relation to information requests from a variety of sources (see context), all of which places a significant burden on staff at a time when resource is decreasing. Consequently there is a real risk that statutory and internal deadlines will be missed with service and reputational impacts, and potential fines. o CRR25.04.15 – Renfrew Bridge – moderate The new bridge is complex and unique, being the first opening vehicle bridge across the River Clyde. Robust testing around bridge functionality mitigates technical bridge risks, however the complexity and uniqueness of the new bridge could lead to unforeseen factors emerging in year 1 which could in turn impact on council reputation. Service o Temporary funding streams ending – high (Children’s Services) o Violence and Aggression – high “ o Pupil Attendance and Exclusion – high “ o Additional Support for Learning – high “ o Housing Landlord Compliance – high (EHI Services) o Alcohol, drugs or meds impacts – high o Recruitment & retention, Technical Unit – Moderate “ o contractors are unable to accept waste – Moderate “ • Risks remaining, where scoring has Strategic - nil Corporate - nil Service - nil • Risks remaining, where scoring has (other than de-escalated risks) Strategic - nil Corporate o Financial Sustainability – reduced from very high to high following approval of the budget in February with a grant funding settlement that was higher than forecast. The risk is continually monitored for actuals vs assumptions. Service o Housing Investment Programme – reduced from high to moderate as risk registers for each project are now in place and regularly updated. • Risks escalated from service/s to strategic or corporate - nil • Risks escalated from 'business as usual’ to strategic or corporate - nil • Risks removed or de-escalated to service Strategic - nil
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Corporate - nil Service o Last in Block Properties – no longer posing a risk o Collection and disposal of Waste Upholstered Domestic Seating (WUDS)/ Persistent Organic Pollutants (POP’s). The new legislation has been in place for over 15 months and the process of separating and disposing of WUDS/POPS waste has been integrated into normal service delivery. o Programme and project management (FARs) – corporate arrangements in place and nothing of concern coming through the related BaURAM1 module o Payment Card Industry (PCI) compliance – no issues or concerns regarding accreditation based on recent experience. • Risks with material updates but no change to scores o SRR.24.03.05 Strategic sustainable planning for people and assets ▪ Added – Delivery of the newly approved learning estate strategy o CRR24.04.10 Asset Management ▪ Removed - Unwanted Fire Alarm Signalling and Upgrade costs/ new communication systems have been installed and no longer pose a risk ▪ Added - Increasing costs, availability of materials and supply chain issues impacting on works programmes and projects o CRR25.04.17 National Care Service ▪ Still ‘moderate’ but on hold pending a revised Bill to support a different approach to that which was originally proposed. 3.10 Horizon scanning and other points of note There are a number of matters that the Corporate Management Team keep a watching brief on. This is particularly relevant for ‘known unknowns’ i.e. matters that we know could be of concern but are not yet tangible enough for an informed assessment of risk, or, risks where we will be called upon to respond to, but most likely at the direction of national government. These are captured below for information. a) Geopolitical context In keeping with views reflected in the global risk report, CMT continually monitor the geopolitical landscape as what has become clearer in recent months and years is how strategic decisions taken elsewhere globally can very quickly lead to local impacts being felt. b) Emerging duties and current uncertainty around implications Duties were highlighted here in the past in relation to equalities and, the United Nations Convention of the Rights of the Child. At this time the main point to highlight here is the consumer duty for relevant public authorities under provisions set out in the Consumer Scotland Act 2020, which came fully into force on 1 April 2025. The council requires to self-assess levels of compliance with the duties and identify any action required. There may be a risk emerges depending on the outcome following self-assessment. 1 Business as usual risk assurance model – BaURAM © Renfrewshire Council
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c) Public health matters A watching brief is kept in relation to the potential for a further pandemic (see para 3.6). Additionally there is recognition of the potential for animal-related public health incidents which include diseases such as avian flu, swine flu etc. The council would take guidance from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA), on such matters. 3.11 With 3.5 - 3.9 in mind, the strategic and corporate risk profile is now as follows: Evaluation: Low Moderate High Very High Total LT or Imm Strategic Risks: 00 00 03 02 05 LT or Imm Corporate Risks: 00 02 07 02 11 Strategic Moderate risk Very high risk Economy Reducing inequalities High risk Migration and asylum related impacts Global environmental sustainability and route to Net Zero Strategic sustainable planning for people and assets Corporate Moderate risk Renfrew Bridge National Care Service Very high risk Successful cyber attack Partnership financial sustainability High risk Delivery of homeless duties Workforce planning, recruitment and retention Financial sustainability Financial Stability Asset management Misinformation/ disinformation Increasing scrutiny burden/ information requests
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3.10 The service department risk profiles are now as follows: Chief Executives Children’s Services Environment, Housing & Infrastructure Finance & Resources - - 6 - 7 - - - - 2 - 2 6 - 1 3.11 Appendix 1 provides the detail for 05 longer-term or imminent strategic risks. Appendix 2 provides the detail for 11 longer-term or imminent corporate risks. Appendix 3 provides the detail for 24 longer-term or imminent service risks. Appendix 4 provides the assurance levels (to date) for business-as-usual risks. 3.12 The strategic and corporate risks remain aligned with the council plan themes that were approved in 2022. __________________________________________________________________ Implications of the Report 1. Financial Recurring costs associated with the measures in place for each risk are considered proportionate to the level of risk, and new planned actions are also considered to be cost effective. The financial requirements to support the risks should be met within the budget of each relevant risk owner, nevertheless, any unplanned and unbudgeted cost pressures that arise in relation to any of the risks identified will be subject to review in consultation with the Director of Finance and Resources. 2. HR & Organisational Development – not relevant to report recommendations 3. Community/Council Planning – effective risk management supports the delivery of all community/ council plan outcomes 4. Legal – not relevant to report recommendations 5. Property/Assets – not relevant to report recommendations 6. Information Technology – not relevant to report recommendations 7. Equality & Human Rights – not relevant to report recommendations 8. Health & Safety – not relevant to report recommendations 9. Procurement – not relevant to report recommendations 10. Risk – as per the subject matter of this report 11. Privacy Impact – not relevant to report recommendations 12. Climate Risk – not relevant to report recommendations
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13. Children’s Rights – This report does not present a new policy, function, or strategy, nor a substantive change to an existing policy, function or strategy which will have an impact on children’s rights. The report itself is therefore largely neural on children. However, management of certain risks described in the report support a number of the Articles contained within the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (Incorporation) (Scotland) Act 2024. For example, managing the risk relating to ‘Community and Public Safety’ supports Articles: a. 19 – protection from violence b. 34 – protection from sexual abuse c. 35 – protection from sale and trafficking d. 36 – protection from exploitation 14. Cosla Policy Position – not relevant to report recommendations _________________________________________________________ Author: Karen Locke, Risk Manager 01/04/2025 Email: riskmanager@renfrewshire.gov.uk
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9 | P a g e Appendix 1: Strategic Risks, longer-term or imminent • ECONOMY – building an inclusive, green and resilient economy Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation SRR.25.01.01 Economy Renfrewshire’s economy faces challenges such as: growing the working age population; more closely aligning the Education and skills provision with the needs of local employers; and achieving a strong and inclusive economy. The risk therefore is that significant economic improvement and upskilling of local workforce is difficult to progress until the current landscape improves and our investment programmes are completed Head of Economy and Development Head of Finance and Procurement Programme Director – City Deal & Infrastructure (1) Capital investment such as investment in housing and heritage assets; supporting Scotland’s investment by identifying and developing opportunities such as AMIDS2 and supporting local businesses seeking to export to new markets (2) Developing skills interventions to address the risks of unemployment, in particular those in low-paid employment, and parents. (3) Support for local businesses to bid for council contracts (4) Support for local businesses to become more carbon neutral 05 05 25 V.High Renfrewshire’s economy has well established strengths in transport (including Glasgow Airport), retail (including Braehead), manufacturing (including significant international exports) and construction and major initiatives such as AMIDs are key to future growth. There is a risk that failure to support economic growth will have a negative impact on residents, businesses, and public services. Action Codes Actions Latest Note Assigned To Date Status CP22.02.08 Maximise funding for regeneration of Renfrewshire’s places through grant submissions to external sources including UK and Scottish Governments. The Regeneration and Place Team have successfully secured funding through various external sources. Between 21/22 and 25/26 it has been allocated £2.9m from the Place Based Investment Fund for capital regeneration projects. Between 22/23 and 23/24 we have received £1.5m in funding for capital and revenue regeneration spend from the Shared Prosperity fund. The Council has consistently been successful in RCGF funding applications, most recently receiving £800k in funding for the PACE theatre project. Four applications have been submitted this year for the 24/25 allocation. We were invited to Stage 2 for two of these applications, which were duly submitted in November 2024. An application was also submitted this year to the Scottish Governments Vacant and Derelict Land Investment Programme (VDLIP) and again we were successful in progressing to Stage 2, with a further application submitted in November. However, all these applications have subsequently been put on hold by the Scottish Government indefinitely whilst a decision is made on the regeneration grant funding as a whole. However, due to funding reductions to the Scottish Government’s Regeneration funding, it has recently been announced that both the RCGF and VDLIP schemes have been put on hold indefinitely. Funding worth £85k has been secured from SEPA to investigate the potential deculverting and environmental enhancement of the Candren Burn in Ferguslie. Head of Economy and Development 31-Mar- 2026 2 Advanced Manufacturing Innovation District
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10 | P a g e The Regeneration team will continue to explore external funding opportunities to help deliver our place shaping agenda. CESDP21 - 01 - 27 Monitor benefits of City Deal Projects, including AMIDS, Clyde Waterfront and Renfrew Riverside and City Region wide employment programmes. Monitoring of benefits reported through the City Region PMO is ongoing. This will be transitioned to Regeneration Team after CWRR completion. Programme Director - City Deal and Infrastructure 31-Mar- 2025 CESIP24.02.01 Fully participate in the AMIDS Joint Venture AMIDS joint venture fully established and operational, Council is fully participating. This action is now complete Programme Director, City Deal and Infrastructure 31-Mar- 2026 CP.22.02.01 Develop an Investment Proposition for Renfrewshire that is clear on our economic ambitions for place Two reports have been commissioned to analyse Renfrewshire’s Growth Sectors. The first highlighted that there are several opportunities which Renfrewshire needs to capitalise on to support the growth of its economy further. The second report aims to reconcile existing priorities, team capacity and skills engaged in the economic development and regeneration functions of the Chief Executive’s Department, with the future opportunities and challenges outlined in the first report and the Council’s Economic Strategy. This report highlights that there is a requirement to grow and increase visibility of Renfrewshire’s inward investment proposition to drive future economic growth and development. A new web page has been created which signposts the area’s main investment locations. (https://www.renfrewshire.gov.uk/article/13818/Renfrewshire-investment-prospectus) Future works includes looking at developing a dedicated investment page on the Invest Renfrewshire webpage. Moreover, a dedicated website to drive investment at AMIDS is being developed and is hoped to be launched later this year. Head of Economy and Development 31-Mar- 2025 CP.22.02.07 Develop a Community Wealth Building Plan for Renfrewshire The Renfrewshire Economy Conference was held in June 2024 with attendance from key stakeholders across Renfrewshire’s public, private and third sectors. Community Wealth Building featured as part of the key economic themes and agendas with a keynote presentation on CWB and the Wellbeing Economy by the Council’s Economic Development Manager and a CWB stakeholder engagement workshop delivered by the Council’s CWB Coordinator. Feedback from the workshop will be used to inform next steps in progressing the CWB agenda across Renfrewshire through building a partnership approach. Renfrewshire’s Anchor Supply Chain event delivered by Renfrewshire Council’s economic development department in partnership with the council’s procurement team alongside anchor procurement partners from NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, University of the West of Scotland and Scotland Excel was held in October 2024. The aim of the event was to develop the local supply chain in Renfrewshire to respond to procurement opportunities available in the public sector. The event highlighted public sector opportunities suitable for local SME's and focused on how local SME’s can develop their procurement capability as a supplier. Businesses were encouraged to register on Head of Economy and Development with Head of Finance and Procurement 31-Mar- 2025
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11 | P a g e PCS and to develop their understanding of public procurement and the opportunities that bidding for public sector contracts can unlock. Procurement leads alongside business support organisations provided information and guidance on requirements for bidding and support available for local businesses.
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12 | P a g e • PLACE - working together to enhance wellbeing across communities • FAIR - nurturing bright, happy and healthy futures for all Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation SRR.25.02.02 Reducing inequalities in Renfrewshire If we don’t have a coordinated approach to tackling inequalities across Renfrewshire (including for example, the causes and consequences of poverty), this could jeopardise the effort in reducing both the short-term impacts on households but also have wider long-term consequences on attainment and health for people living on low incomes. Head of Policy & Partnerships (1) Fairer Renfrewshire Programme (2) Attainment Challenge and Pupil Equity Funding (3) Strong partnership working (e.g. Community Planning Partnership (CPP). Advice Partnership, Empowering Communities Forum, Improving Life Chances, CPP Board (4) Community Plan identifies ‘Fair’ priorities with associated actions relating to cost of living crisis, addressing the impact of alcohol and drugs, and a just transition to Net Zero. Social Renewal Plan has been developed through a programme of analysis, research, and engagement. 05 05 25 V.High The Council plays a key role in tackling inequalities and providing the best possible services to our communities, particularly those who are experiencing the poorest outcomes. As well as our focus on health and wellbeing, we are also committed to support vulnerable individuals, groups or communities through early intervention and prevention, responding to poverty, supporting routes to employment as well as dealing with welfare reforms. The pandemic had a disproportionate impact on those experiencing poverty and the extent of recovery from those impacts is varied. There is a significant focus on ensuring that people receive the economic and wellbeing support that is needed, with a real opportunity to work in a different way, and to tackle some of the existing inequalities across communities as we do this. The current cost of living crisis impacts disproportionately on particular groups in society. The implementation of recent announcements by the UK Government on welfare reform are likely to have an impact in this area and any changes and mitigations will be closely monitored. Action Codes Actions Latest Note Assigned To Date Status CESIP24.03.06 Deliver the Fairer Renfrewshire programme, working with partners to support residents through the cost-of- living crisis The Fairer Renfrewshire Sub-Committee has been meeting since August 2022 and a Fairer Renfrewshire Officers Group from across services is meeting monthly. In March 2023 existing funds were brought together into a single resource for Fairer Renfrewshire at around £5million, and partners are working together to further develop the programme. There are four key emerging themes which are shared across all elements of the programme, under which key projects are being funded:· Improving financial security· Advancing equality of opportunity· Building community capacity and resilience· Listening to lived experience The new School Support service is now in place across all Renfrewshire secondary schools. This service, provided by Renfrewshire Citizens Advice Bureau (RCAB), embeds advice workers in schools, and referrals can be received by pupils over 16, parents/carers, and school staff. Advice Works is providing a Family Support service to families with younger children, which can be accessed by telephone or online. Both services provide support to maximise family income, and both also receive referrals under the new school meal debt processes, which prioritises supporting families. Winter Connections is running for a 2nd year in Winter 24/25, providing opportunities for communities to come together and take part in free Head of Policy and Partnerships 31-Mar- 2025
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13 | P a g e activities and including food. This has contributed to wellbeing over the winter. The Fairer Renfrewshire Panel has provided insight in a number of areas including holiday provision in Renfrewshire, with the Panel contributing to the plans for our ‘Summer of Fun’, both for summer 23 and 24, the Council’s new School Meal Debt processes, digital exclusion and employability, especially parental employability. Digital inclusion is also being supported through the introduction of Digizones and through the Digital Champions programme, both developed through the Citizens Voice forum. CESIP24.03.05 Develop the Trauma Informed and Responsive Renfrewshire Programme Additional temporary capacity has been created to support this programme. The Level 1 online learning resource is ready for piloting. Work in the first half of 2025 will focus on identifying priority groups for Level 2 training and on growing capacity within the organisation to deliver trauma-informed training. This will link closely to other council-wide programmes such as The Promise and the forthcoming work on tackling stigma. Head of Policy & Partnerships 31-Mar- 2025 CESIP24.03.03 Developing new and potentially radical approaches to tackling child poverty in Renfrewshire Work continues to develop place-based models to tackle child poverty. A Community Needs Assessment is currently being carried out and will inform the next phase. Funding has been allocated to support the continuation of community development activity in Gallowhill following the publication of the Community Needs Assessment. This will provide capacity to support the development and implementation of actions emerging from the community needs assessment, and continue to improve and expand community led activity and infrastructure in the area. Wider work will also be undertaken to develop a place-based approach based on the learning from the CNA. Head of Policy and Partnerships 31-Mar- 2027 CESIP24.01.02 Design a new Connected Communities service model for the Council – implementing a new service structure and developing the corporate approach for the whole organisation Work has been progressed to develop a new Connected Communities function within the Chief Executive’s Service which will bring together staff from the existing Community Learning and Development and Partnership and Inequalities teams. Phase one of this work which focuses on the enabling internal restructure is progressing well. Head of Policy & Partnerships 31-Dec- 2025 CP.22.03.08 Take forward the recommendations of the Alcohol and Drugs Commission The Alcohol and Drug Change Programme is in its final phase and during 2024/25 evaluation work will be undertaken and responsibility for governance and oversight will transition to Renfrewshire Alcohol and Drug Partnership. The Programme Board will continue to meet in 2024 until those arrangements have been finalised. As the funding associated with the Programme will also come to an end, decisions will be required as to the future of projects in receipt of test-of-change funding. Qualitative research has been commissioned to support project leads in gathering information about the impact of their work which can support decision making. This research will also help inform the programme evaluation which will be reported in the autumn. ▪ Several projects have been mainstreamed or completed: Head of Policy & Partnerships 31-Mar- 2025
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14 | P a g e o The Alcohol and Substance Awareness Education pack is in use in education establishments across Renfrewshire. o The additional specialist training for First Crisis means that specialist support for people using alcohol or drugs is now part of the core First Crisis service. o The Youth Health and Wellbeing pilot has concluded. o Two research pieces on Hidden Harm and Family Support are complete. o The Alcohol Policy post has ended, and elements will be incorporated into a new ADP post. o Connecting and Caring Renfrewshire is near completion, with only the evaluation element to complete. o Recovery Change Fund has concluded. ▪ Several projects have funding remaining and so continue: o MYLA, supporting people to sustain settled housing. o Safeguarding Vulnerable Young People, creating additional pastoral support for a small number of pupils in a Renfrewshire secondary school. o Peer support work as part of CIRCLE. o HARRT, delivering mobile outreach services for those not currently engaged with other services. o Stigma/Language Matters, a training resource for staff. Specific work on trauma is part of the wider Trauma Informed and Responsive Renfrewshire programme. This action will be closed and the final evaluation work and transition to new governance will be reported as part of the Fairer Renfrewshire programme. CESIP23.03.02 Develop the Fair Food Renfrewshire strategy. The Fair Food Renfrewshire (FFR) Steering Group, which met initially in September 2023, has continued to meet on a quarterly basis and is now a member of the Sustainable Food Places network. A six-month plan was agreed by the Steering Group in August, and a Food Support Forum was held in October 2024, with a further meeting arranged for February 2025. The purpose of the Form is identifying and solving issues both for those suffering from food insecurity and those providing emergency and community food, exploring opportunities for collaborative working, knowledge sharing and identifying key priorities. This feeds into the first key priority of FFR, which are: · Working to reduce, then eradicate food poverty, by promoting a collaborative approach across all communities, ensuring a dignified and fair access to health and affordable food for all. · Increased access and availability of growing grounds in every town and village within Renfrewshire. · Widen access and availability to educational opportunities regarding nutrition and cooking skills, and wider use of “home economics” type classes within education, health and community settings. The Scottish Government’s update to the National Good Food Plan is due shortly following the analysis of consultation responses being published on 27 September 2024. It is likely that that the Bill will go before Parliament in June 2025, with formal commencement in March 2026. Once the National Good Food Nation legislation has been finalised, a Council food strategy can be drafted to reflect the new statutory duties, and the needs of communities in Renfrewshire and initial contact has taken place with the Living Good Food nation Lab, who have been funded to support Local Authorities develop their plans. Strategic Partnerships & Inequalities Manager 31-Dec- 24
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15 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation SRR.25.02.03 Migration and asylum related service pressures The pace at which asylum dispersal and refugee resettlement has taken place in Renfrewshire since 2022 has been significant, and beyond anything previously experienced. Partnership governance structures have been established to enable partners to share information and to identify and respond to issues as these emerge. In the short term, these are anticipated to be in relation to potential pressure on local education, health and social care services. There are significant pressure on, homelessness and housing services, given the tightness of the current housing market locally and on children’s social work due to availability of foster care and residential provision. Head of Child Care & Criminal Justice Head of Policy and Partnerships Head of Housing Services (1) The Migration and Resettlement Strategic Group meets regularly to review and discuss developments across all migration and resettlement programmes. This group is comprised of senior officers from across appropriate council services. (2) Asylum Dispersal meetings are held once every two weeks with senior council officers and representatives from the UK Government Home Office and their agent Mears. (3) Liaison Meetings with Migrant Help are held approximately once every six weeks with senior council officers and other partner organisations such as Police Scotland and HSCP. (4) The Renfrewshire Community Protection Chief Officer Group receives regular updates on migration and asylum issues and any emerging issues. (5) The Renfrewshire Community Protection Member Officer Group receives regular updates on migration and asylum issues and any emerging issues. (6) Updates are provided, as required, to the Leadership Board of the council. 04 04 16 High Migration/ Ukraine/ Asylum programmes - this is an area which is developing and could be a potential major issue moving forward. The impact of the conflict in Ukraine is reflected within the Financial Sustainability Risk, but only in relation to pricing volatility and global supply issues. The risk here is wider ranging and includes: - Ukrainian Displaced Persons - Home Office Asylum dispersal programme – use of hotel accommodation in Renfrewshire - – increase in volume and speed of decision making - Unaccompanied Asylum-Seeking Children – new requirement from UK Government for Renfrewshire to provide for children and young people under the National Transfer Scheme - Syrian/ Afghan resettlement programme - Support to ensure effective resettlement to New Scots Action Codes Actions Assigned To Date Status Ongoing Monitoring
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16 | P a g e • GREEN – leading Renfrewshire to Net Zero Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation SRR.25.03.04 Global environmental sustainability and route to Net Zero A key risk to the Council is that it may not achieve its target of working towards net zero by 2030 in both its own operational emissions and Renfrewshire’s area-wide emissions. Decarbonising our domestic and non- domestic properties and fleet alone will require significant capital investment. In terms of reducing Renfrewshire’s area-wide emissions there are challenges around influencing behavioural changes, and a risk that others do not contribute towards the 2030 target. The climate emergency also brings a risk to the Council in terms of increased frequency of severe weather events may lead to more instances of damage to Council infrastructure and property, interruptions to service delivery and increased demands on services, often with little notice. There is risk to life, transport disruption and pollution to the local environment, as well as impact adversely on the local economy if businesses are unable to operate. The Council has a requirement to provide immediate response and manage the adverse effects of more frequent and severe weather emergency situations, including support to local communities and businesses. Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads (1) Renfrewshire’s Plan for Net Zero has specific objectives to reduce emissions, and these are included in other key documents such as the Council Plan (2) Governance through the Planning & Climate Change Policy Board as well as a new Net Zero Oversight Group (3) Development of Costed Delivery Plans and a Climate Delivery Action Plan. (4) Sustainable Communities Fund – to support local people to develop sustainable projects that will promote or improve community collaboration, health and wellbeing, local spaces, economic development, biodiversity and the environment. (5) Use of an emissions modelling tool to quantify the impact of actions, inform future targets and present emissions data. (6) A Carbon Management Plan (7) An approved Adaptation Plan 04 04 16 High Climate change is expected to continue and worsen in the future if no action is taken, with increases to mean global temperatures, sea level rises and the increasing frequency and severity of weather events such as floods, heatwaves, droughts and storms. More frequent and intense heavy rainfall events increase the risk of soil erosion and flooding. Severe weather is already affecting public services across Scotland, with operational, reputational, financial and legal consequences. There is also an ongoing impact of severe winter weather including snowfall and freezing temperatures which impact service delivery and the integrity of our roads open space and buildings infrastructure. This shift in weather patterns caused by climate change is also affecting biodiversity across Scotland. Renfrewshire Council declared a Climate Emergency in 2019 and approved the target to work towards being net zero, for both Council estate emissions and area – wide emissions by 2030. In 2022 the Council approved RenZero, the first stage of Renfrewshire’s Plan for Net Zero. This Plan sets out the strategic framework required to work towards our climate change targets. The Planning and Climate Change Policy Board oversee this work. Actions include: leading by example by decarbonising our estate and fleet, publishing our Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategy and Delivery Plan, maximising the carbon absorption potential of our natural environment and supporting communities to become more resilient to the impact of extreme weather events.
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17 | P a g e Action Codes New Actions Assigned To Date Status SRR.24.03.04a Continue to report transparently on our emissions to ensure that Renfrewshire’s emissions baseline is clearly understood. Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads 31-Mar- 2026 SRR.24.03.04b Deliver the Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategy Delivery Plan. Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads 31-Mar- 2026 SRR.24.03.04c Identify opportunities for Partnership Delivery Models for clean energy projects such as solar and battery storage Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads 31-Mar- 2026 SRR.24.03.04d Prioritise actions in relation to the biggest emissions sources, where we have the most influence, through project pathfinder approaches for decarbonisation of domestic and non-domestic properties and vehicles to bring scale and pace to emissions reduction. Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads 31-Mar- 2026 SRR.24.03.04e Continue to work with stakeholders to articulate the potential costs and skills required to reach our net zero target. Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads 31-Mar- 2026 SRR.24.03.04f Continue to develop our adaptation measures, as part of an approved Adaptation Plan, as we are aware that mitigation alone will not protect communities from the impact of climate change. Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads 31-Mar- 2026 SRR.24.03.04g Develop a Zero Waste Strategy to minimise waste generation and encourage reuse and recycling to support a more sustainable and circular economy. Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads 31-Mar- 2026 SRR.24.03.04h Explore opportunities for expansion of carbon sinks and other carbon capture technologies. Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads 31-Mar- 2026 SRR.24.03.04i Explore the options around developing a carbon budget for the Council. Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads 31-Mar- 2026 SRR.24.03.04j Continue to work with communities to ensure a holistic approach to tacking climate change is taken and to ensure no community is left behind. Head of Climate, Public Protection and Roads 31-Mar- 2026 Forward action linked to Net Zero plan: Climate change action to make Renfrewshire net zero - Renfrewshire Website
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18 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation SRR.25.03.05 Strategic sustainable planning for people and assets There is a risk that decisions could be made in the short term, for example to address financial pressures, which may then impact adversely on sustainability goals for the longer term impacting on our communities and organisation. CMT (1) Learning Estate Programme Board established (2) Implementation of the Corporate Asset Management Strategy ensures that property assets are managed effectively and efficiently through the provision of relevant management and performance information (3) The Energy Management Team: ensure energy management initiatives are aligned to the capital investment programme and corporate asset strategy to optimise use of property estate and reduce overall running costs and energy consumption levels. Promote reductions in energy usage and advise employees and residents about energy efficiency (4) Through the Procurement Unit, sustainability and community benefits are considered in the development of all contract strategies, with a Sustainable Procurement Strategy approved in November 2023. 04 04 16 High - Deliver sustainable person-centred public services (the Verity Agreement) and an engaged sustainable workforce - Ensure infrastructure future-proofing, with investment in solar and wind farms, electric charging networks and public transport, showing that taking the right risks right now, can transform communities - For capital projects and existing assets, ensure these are fit for purpose for the future and have sustainable maintenance and repairs strategies - Delivery of the newly approved learning estate strategy Action Codes Linked Actions Latest Note Assigned Date Status Ongoing monitoring continues in relation to financial capacity to to deliver the various mitigating strategies
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19 | P a g e Appendix 2: Corporate Risks, longer-term or imminent • LIVING our VALUES – making a difference together Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.06 Successful Cyber Attack Regardless of the Council’s technical preparedness for a cyber attack, the threat remains acute and present, as evidenced by successful attacks on partner bodies, with the risk of significant impact on council operations. CMT For security reasons, technical security controls are not published in the public domain. 04 05 20 V.High Context: The risk is specific to a successful cyber attack as more and more this risk comes closer to home, despite the sophisticated technical security protocols and cyber architecture in place, and for those organisations who have been impacted by successful attacks, the effects are devastating. No matter what technology is deployed, the risk is materially impacted by individual employee behaviours – i.e. learning how to recognise a cyber attack and keeping that knowledge up to date by reading cyber updates and doing mandatory cyber training, being alert to phishing attacks and understanding the need for rapid escalation should an error inadvertently be made and criticality of urgently reporting when they have reacted to a phishing email and explaining all actions taken. Action Codes Linked Actions Latest Note Assigned To Due Date Status As agreed by the Corporate Management Team
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20 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.07 Partnership Financial Sustainability The HSCP is currently forecasting recurring gross pressures of £33m in 2025/26. Scottish Government funding pass-throughs from both local government and the NHS are expected to amount to £11m, and the second (and final) year of the employer superannuation contribution reduction will avoid £4m of costs. The IJB recently agreed a programme that should generate savings of around £8m in 2025/26, assuming they are fully implemented. All of these mitigating actions may still lead to a planned budget gap of £10m, which could be funded from IJB reserve balances in-year. This will, however, deplete the available IJB reserve balances leave the HSCP with little financial resilience as it enters 2026/27, and despite a continued drive to achieve savings through its Sustainable Futures programme, a recurring budget gap of £25-30m is expected in 2026/27, with minimal reserve balances available to support this position. It is therefore possible that the HSCP may be required to consider financial recovery measures, perhaps even during the course of 2025/26. The Integration Scheme states that should the IJB be unable to achieve a balanced budget for future years, it would be required to seek additional funding from its Partner Bodies, including the Council. Director of Finance & Resources (1) The IJB’s Sustainable Futures programme looks to mitigate some of the pressure through a portfolio of savings measures (2) The Council is fully passing through settlement funding for Free Personal Care and Adult Social Care Real Living Wage increases (3) Regular budget monitoring discussions between Council and HSCP finance officers (4) Regular medium term financial monitoring between Council and HSCP finance officers 05 04 20 V.High Context: Renfrewshire Health and Social Care Partnership (HSCP) most recently reported a 2024/25 forecast overspend of £3.7m, which is expected to be funded from IJB reserve balances. The HSCP is also indicating that it faces significant financial pressures moving into 2025/26 and is currently expecting to achieve a balanced budget by relying heavily on the use of reserves and the delivery of savings options recently agreed by the IJB. Action Codes Linked Actions Latest Note Assigned To Due Date Status Continual monitoring
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21 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.08 Delivering homeless duties It is becoming more difficult to fulfil our statutory duties for providing accommodation so breaches may occur with an increase in rough-sleeping and reputational harm. Director of Environment, Housing & Infrastructure (1) Monitored at weekly Housing SMT meetings with Head of Service and senior housing managers (2) Reports to Communities and Housing Policy Board (latest Jan 2025 ) (3) The Council’s stock of furnished properties being used to provide temporary accommodation for those who have nowhere to stay has been increased on a stepped basis to 285 (4) Additional staffing resources have been appointed within Homeless Services, with 3 x Accommodation Officer and 2 x Housing Options Adviser posts now filled on a temporary basis to support the Councils response to the increase in homelessness. Also, extension of 2 temporary posts to improve access to support, housing options advice and advocacy for tenants in the private rented sector. This has been further augmented with additional temporary Accommodations staff from March 2025. (5) Two additional Housing Support Officer posts have now been created and filled on a temporary basis to help ensure the legal duty to assess the support needs of those who are homeless and ensure these needs are met can be complied with This has been further augmented with 3 additional temporary Housing Support posts from March 2025. (6) Attendance at regular multi-agency meetings regarding utilisation of temporary hotel accommodation 04 04 16 High We are at risk of being unable to provide temporary/ settled accommodation for the increased number of homeless applicants, Ukraine and Afghan resettlement programmes, and those asylum seekers living in Renfrewshire receiving positive decisions. Action Codes Actions Assigned To Date Status CRR24.04.14a In response to the increase in the level of homelessness over the last two to three years, The Council has increased its target to provide 55% of general lets to homeless applicants in 2024/25 and this was approved by the Policy Board in March 2024. Continue with the increased target of 55% of general lets to homeless applicants in 2025/26 as approved by the Policy Board in January 2025. Head of Housing Services 31-Mar- 2026 CRR24.04.14b Deliver the key initiatives detailed in Renfrewshire’s Rapid Rehousing Transition Plan, including, the provision of adequate temporary accommodation, increasing the number of lets to homeless in order to meet needs, provide assistance to help new tenants resettle, and upscaling the provision of wraparound support initiatives such as Housing First. Homeless & Housing Support Services Manager 31-Mar- 2025
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22 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.09 Workforce planning, recruitment and retention There is a national shortage in the UK labour market for certain trades and professional services. For Renfrewshire Council that is impacting on certain specialist recruitment campaigns. This combined with salaries that cannot compete with the commercial sector, the reality is that there is a risk the council may lose key personnel, it may be very difficult to recruit suitably qualified and skilled officers for compliance, advisory, investigative and assurance work, with significant impact on statutory responsibilities and slippage in professional activity. Director of Finance & Resources Head of People and Organisational Development (1) Corporate Workforce Planning Group established to manage and implement the Corporate Workforce/ People Strategy. (2) Data analytics to look at areas of risk, trends both recruitment and attrition. (3) Ensuring we hire the right people in the first place by having solid recruitment methods (4) Offering workplace flexibility which can help enhance work life balance, and burnout (5) Creating opportunities for development (6) Partnering with employability, community, and further/higher education programmes to support the Council as an employer of choice 04 04 16 High • Workforce planning risk is captured by our model for business-as-usual risk, however a live issue exists in relation to recruitment and retention challenges for particular roles, such as: o Various trades and professional services e.g, Legal o Social services Action Codes Actions Latest Note Assigned To Date Status Ongoing monitoring with reporting twice yearly to the FRCS Board.
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23 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.10 Financial Sustainability If significant cost pressures are not successfully planned for and managed effectively over the medium to longer term, this could jeopardise the financial sustainability of the council and result in a significant impact on availability and quality of front- line services and capital investment resources. Decisions will then be required on the continuity or scope of some services currently offered. Director of Finance and Resources; and Head of Finance and Procurement (1) Revised medium - to long-term Financial Outlook reassessed the various risks to the Council’s short, medium - and longer-term financial sustainability. Refreshed medium term outlook reported to Council on 27 February 2025 along with the 2025/26 budget, and outlined the immediate financial concerns and plans to address these, including savings, and managed use of reserve balances; however, as the position continues to develop and evolve, close monitoring will be required to ensure that the Council manages costs in the short term and fully appreciates the longer term consequences of actions taken to address short-term risks. Committee reports of this nature cover a wide range of current and future financial and economic factors e.g., Strategic Economic and National Policy Context, Cost Pressures, Pressures on Income and Mitigation Strategies to deal with such uncertainties. (2) A well-developed and embedded budget planning, budget setting and budgetary control system is in place throughout the organisation, and this informs members and officers regarding financial performance and stability. This facilitates robust and transparent decision making and incorporates an escalation process with regards budget management issues which may arise. The Council agreed the 2025/26 budget on 27 February 2025. (3) In conjunction with the medium to longer term financial outlook and the Council’s ongoing financial sustainability workstreams, Renfrewshire Council has been proactive in planning for the future by identifying and agreeing a series of directorate-led savings targets over the medium term (2025/26 to 2027/28). It remains the case that savings will continue to require be generated at scale in order to ensure the ongoing financial sustainability of the Council. (4) There is close financial monitoring of the agreed savings to ensure that they are delivered within the agreed timescales, or where this is not possible, to understand and reschedule planned delivery to achieve the associated objectives. Monitoring is undertaken via a combination of financial and operational measures, actions and related update reports. (5) Regular updates and bespoke reports are provided to CMT and the Council with regards the national fiscal position, likely 03 05 15 High Financial recovery from global events - Potential reduced income from NDR/CT over the medium term as full economic implications of the cost-of-living crisis, in particular energy cost inflation, continue to impact local businesses and communities - Volatility in the global supply chains leading to shortage of labour and materials following Brexit and the outbreak of the Ukraine war Best value report - Recommendation in Best Value report to prioritise how services need to be provided in future to be funded from within available resources. Cost and Income pressures - Future grant settlements and the level of funding available. - Implications of national economic policy choices to protect certain services from real-terms reductions in funding such as the NHS - Local Government pay settlements, and non-payroll inflation - Demographics and demand pressures, such as an ageing population with increased associated service demands, and increases in demand for children’s social care
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24 | P a g e - HSCP financial situation and real risk of entering financial recovery in 2024/25 - Implications of welfare policies and poverty levels, exacerbated by cost- of-living crisis. - Reductions in income from fee- generating services such as car parking; implications of the national economic recovery and associated risks/uncertainty in economic factors e.g., interest rates and inflation. - Implications of third party provider financial stability, such as childcare providers in current economic climate - Liability for predecessor organisations, in light of the removal of the limitation period for historic child abuse claims developments and the impact on the council through close liaison with national groups e.g., CIPFA DoFs, COSLA and the Scottish Government. This liaison remains critical in ensuring the Council is aware of potential financial developments and is in a position to influence these. (6) The CMT now has a regular formal focus on financial sustainability, with one meeting in four being a Financial Sustainability and Transformation Board. These spotlight director-led savings and any associated policy changes or risks for discussion. (7) Managing the level and use of reserves has been a key tool in addressing the costs of the pandemic, therefore the planned use of reserves in the medium term, and the Council’s Capital Investment and Treasury Management Strategy, are key to ensuring ongoing financial sustainability. (8) Reports and publications from Audit Scotland in relation to the Local Government financial outlook, financial planning and related developments and improvements are supplemented with a Renfrewshire context report, with both reports being submitted to the Council's Audit Risk and Scrutiny Board. (9) Energy consumption data and condition surveys are used to identify priority areas for investment in the Council’s estate, support informed investment decisions and formulate the Council’s Capital and Revenue budgets. (10) Regular review of HSCP financial position along with HSCP colleagues (please refer to new related risk CRR25.04.07) Action Codes Linked Actions Latest Note Assigned To Due Status CRR25.04.08a Directorate Savings Target 2025/26 £8m Targets by directorate have been set, based on influenceable spend. Regular monitoring takes place with Finance Business Partners and ongoing challenge is provided by regular updates to CMT (Financial Sustainability Board). CMT 31-Mar-26 CRR25.04.08b Directorate Savings Target 2026/27 £8m CMT 31-Mar-27 CRR25.04.08c Directorate Savings Target 2027/28 £8m CMT 31-Mar-28
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25 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.11 Financial Stability If significant short-term costs and income losses are not closely monitored and understood, this could destabilise the finances of the Council to an extent beyond the financial resilience of the Council, resulting in a need for immediate cost control measures, or short-term savings which have an immediate impact on service delivery. Head of Finance and Procurement (1) Revenue budget monitoring reports to Policy Boards focus on the forecast year-end outturn position rather than the historic periodic position, so that significant variances are reported early, and any mitigating steps can be taken. This is already highlighting severe price pressures (such as contractual inflation) across different services. The impact of pay inflation is also highlighted through this reporting mechanism. (2) Review of savings workstreams following approval of the 2025/26 Revenue Budget to ensure targets remain achievable. (3) Clear analysis of the Council’s reserves position and potential for reprioritisation or redirection; including the development of plans to rebuild financial resilience of the Council in the medium term. (4) Ongoing discussion with directors to understand the financial consequences of the current economic climate for each service and how these will be managed. (5) Review of capital plan and ongoing projects to ensure clear understanding of phasing of potential spend. 03 05 15 High Context: Imminent shorter- term risk for financial stability, recognising the immediate financial situation of the Council (note: the medium to longer-term financial position is captured under financial ‘sustainability’) Action Codes Linked Actions Latest Note Assigned Due Date Status Ongoing monitoring
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26 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.12 Asset Management Effective governance and management of the council’s property assets is essential, otherwise there is a significant risk of harm, financial loss, service disruption, non- compliances, fines, rising energy costs and inability to recover losses via insurance proceeds CMT Director of Environment, Housing & Infra- structure. Head of Economy & Development Services Corporately: Key responsibilities with regards to the Estate span 2 specific service departments, but they come together through a CAMIS Development Group (Corporate Asset Management Information System) which is taking forward a workplan to more effectively consolidate and oversee asset management risk Heads of Service: Effective asset management in practice on the frontline is included within the new Risk Assurance model which went live on 1 April 2023. Responsible person inventory currently being updated for all properties. 03 05 15 High Context: GOVERNANCE – roles and responsibilities 1) Estates (Leases – by and from the council, and on behalf of HSCP) 2) Facilities management (security, housekeeping, statutory duties/ inspection, maintenance, repair, building fire risk assessment) 3) Property services (capital works, and CAMIS development) 4) All services (inspection inventories and response, people elements of fire risk assessment) OTHER MATTERS IN SCOPE 1) Fluorescent Lights – requiring LED replacement. We continue to work through this, and spot replacements will be on a like for like basis, however, larger complete renewal is being considered for Renfrewshire House. 2) Increasing costs, availability of materials and supply chain issues impacting on works programmes and projects Codes Linked Actions Latest Note Assigned Due Status CRR22. 05.10d Undertake gap analysis to identify activities that take place outside of the CAMIS environment and consider if these can be brought into CAMIS by way of system development Due to competing demands, development work on CAMIS has moved to virtual environment and slower than initially planned. Work still being undertaken to assess what sits outside CAMIS and what can be brought in. Discussions with other Local Authorities that use CAMIS to see what can be added with Health and Safety module being reviewed. Due date therefore amended to March 2026. CAMIS Development Group 31- March- 2026 CRR22. 05.10e Explore data and status monitoring Whilst CAMIS is noted to be a good repository for data, development work is required to improve the data and how it can be easily accessed. Due to resource requirements elsewhere in the Council, this has been delayed. However, conversations continue virtually to assess what can be done to improve CAMIS for users to ensure robust, up to date data is stored within the application. Engagement continues with Concerto and recent developments. Short life working group currently discussing the property “Responsible Person” to ensure known across the entire portfolio. CAMIS Development Group 31- March- 2026
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27 | P a g e Work continues to engage with all different stakeholders. Further development to include duty holders and those with delegated responsibilities.
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28 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.13 Disinformation and misinformation A significant increase in the number of online channels available and the diversification of audiences can increase the risk of the spread of disinformation and misinformation. This is the intentional spreading of false information which can then be shared by others who may not be aware of any inaccuracies in the information. This can create mistrust and tension within communities and impact on trust in organisations. Head of Marketing and Communications (1) Regular review of channels, their performance and routes to reach audiences (2) Regular review of the council’s social media strategy to ensure effective performance of online channels (3) Regular review of the council’s Marketing and Communications Strategy 2024-2027 (4) Digital Experience Programme to replace Renfrewshire.gov.uk as trusted source of information for public 03 04 12 High Context: The proliferation of information providers and social media and online channels has increased the risk of disinformation and misinformation spreading which can undermine trust in public bodies through spreading false information. Action Codes Actions Latest Note Assigned To Date Status CESIP22.03.12 Launch a new Council website – Renfrewshire.gov.uk – and implement the digital experience strategy, transforming how citizens interact with the Council across digital platforms. Work has started on the initial workshops with the contractor. We are currently refining our delivery timeline and ways of working to ensure alignment with resource and other dependencies. The ongoing rewrite of all existing content continues, with positive feedback from services engaging with the process. We’re continuing the development of our prototypes, design system, and HTML pattern library, and started the research and planning phase of the new intranet. Migration from GovDelivery to SendGrid is underway, with initial efforts focusing on implementation planning. This includes business analysis work around the volume, type and cost of SMS and email messaging used throughout the council to identify efficiencies and cost savings that can be leveraged by improving SMS and emails guidance and increasing the use of approved tools like Sendgrid and GovNotify. Head of Marketing and Communicat ions 31-Mar-27
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29 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.14 Increasing scrutiny burden/ information requests Over recent months and years, the council has experienced and continues to experience significant pressure in relation to information requests from a variety of sources (see context), all of which places a significant burden on staff at a time when resource is decreasing. Consequently there is a risk that statutory and internal deadlines will be missed with service and reputational impacts, and potential fines. CMT (1) Ongoing engagement with scrutiny bodies to plan the Council response and get early visibility of upcoming audit/ scrutiny activity (2) Guidance on the website to assist with proper channelling of enquiries (3) Use of open data and self-service where possible (4) Prioritisation of statutory duties (5) Streamlining processes where possible (6) Database monitoring (Sharepoint/ mailtracking etc) (7) Metrics monitoring/ early warning indicators by service and corporate management team (8) Annual audit of complaints (9) Resident perception survey commissioned 03 04 12 High Context: - Increasing volume of information and engagement requested from various scrutiny bodies as part of ongoing and new national inspection programmes. - Significant volumes of enquiries (FOIs, EIRs, SARs, Complaints from public/ residents, elected members, MPs and MSPs), all requiring responses to be managed, responded to timeously and actions be planned and taken. - Increasing duties linked to recent legislation (e.g Consumer Scotland Act 2020) - All of the above at a time when the council is seeking to reduce resources and work more efficiently. Action Codes Actions Latest Note Assigned To Date Status Ongoing monitoring Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.15 Renfrew Bridge The robust testing around bridge functionality mitigates technical bridge risks, however the complexity and uniqueness of the new bridge could lead to unforeseen factors emerging in year 1 which could in turn impact on council reputation. Head of Environment, Housing & Infrastructure (1) Bridge operatives trained for operations as well as all aspects of health and safety and public safety. (2) Priority to river traffic. The bridge will be opened on-demand to vessels and can be opened in both automatic and manual modes. (3) Procedures are in place should a vessel be unable to pass under the bridge and can be docked in the purpose build layby dock if necessary. (4) Road traffic comms will be explicit re times when the bridged is closed to road traffic/ open to river traffic 03 03 09 Moderate Context: - Complexity – unique, first opening vehicle bridge across the River Clyde - 24/7 operations and community safety matters - Managing expectations for both connectivity and economic benefits - Potential for changing volumes in river traffic outwith council control. Action Codes Actions Latest Note Assigned To Date Status Ongoing monitoring of any incidents and issues emerging.
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30 | P a g e Context Risk Statement Owned by Current Controls Likelihood Impact Evaluation CRR25.04.16 National Care Service – governance and financial implications **ON HOLD pending Bill update** Cause: Consultation and negotiation breakdown in relation to fundamental elements of the Bill, with Government continuing to pursue this Policy. Event: Legislation for the new National Care Service being passed with insufficient resourcing or detail on how the service will operate, and unclear lines of accountability. Effect: The council will face further financial and operational pressures and increased risk in terms of liabilities for both the council and HSCP. CMT (1) Maintaining a watching brief through various professional networks 03 03 09 Moderate Under current proposals for the planned National Care Service, staff will continue to be employed by councils. However, under the terms of a partnership arrangement, legal responsibility for the service is to be ‘shared’ between the health service, councils, and Scottish government, with councils also responsible for buildings and the delivery of services. Parliament approved the general aims of the National Care Service (Scotland) Bill at Stage One with significant amendment to follow at Stage Two. Further to Stage Two consultation, COSLA has withdrawn support (in addition to trade unions), for the Bill in its present form, and the situation is now more uncertain than before. The risk statement is updated to reflect the above. Action Codes Actions Assigned Date Status Monitoring only
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31 | P a g e Appendix 3: Service Risks Risk (Cause and effect) Risk Capture Service RR Project RR H&S PLAN Evaluation Low Moderate High Very High Means of Monitoring Board Risk-Reporting SIP Project Board H&S Planning Group Notes Chief Executive’s Service (1) Discontinuation of Shared Prosperity Fund If the SPF ceases, without a replacement, funding for current economic development and place-based initiatives would be reduced by £2-3M per annum. £1.5M of this funding relates to long term staff and services (economic development only) so any reduction below this level will mean potential redundancies. Service RR Moderate Board Risk-Reporting Renfrewshire Council benefits from the Fund through the Glasgow City Region arrangements. The current arrangements end in March 2026 and as yet, a replacement has not been identified. Funding for 25-26 was reduced by 45% from the previous year but has been managed to allow core services to continue. (2) AMIDS - Investment Zone status If AMIDS were not to achieve Investment Zone status it could dampen placeshaping ambitions and weaken local economy Project RR Moderate Board Risk-Reporting Investment Zone status would enhance the attractiveness of the site to investors, as status means various tax reliefs as well as practical support from the Scottish Government. The designation of an alternative site could reduce the appeal of AMIDS. Children’s Services (3) Future school capacity planning If demand projections are not sufficiently robust there is a risk that the learning estate will be insufficient over the longer term Service RR High Board Risk-Reporting Robust demand projections (core projection, potential upper scenario and a long-term view) for scale and timing of short-term peak demand to inform decisions. Process and arrangements to support and provide detailed monitoring and updates to projections, for updates to actual data sets to facilitate a continual re-assessment of longer-term trend and likely requirements/ decision point required in relation to deployment of potential additional interventions. Options identified to deliver, if required, additional capacity (both temporary capacity and permanent long-term capacity) to ensure the council can respond appropriately to the potential for upper end demand scenarios and or temporary demand peaks to emerge. A new learning estate strategy has been approved by Elected Members and this will be the blueprint for future decisions and developments
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32 | P a g e Risk (Cause and effect) Risk Capture Service RR Project RR H&S PLAN Evaluation Low Moderate High Very High Means of Monitoring Board Risk-Reporting SIP Project Board H&S Planning Group Notes (4) Temporary Funding Streams ending A number of service funding streams are coming to an end in the next two years. This will impact on the continuation of projects and programmes, staffing, services and goods which are linked to the service priorities such as closing poverty related attainment gap, improving mental health and wellbeing and delivering whole family wellbeing. Service RR High Project Board There are a number of funding streams which are ending in March 2026 including the Scottish Attainment Challenge and Pupil Equity Fund. Exit planning and the sustainability of projects has been regularly discussed at portfolio board meetings and as part of the Quality Improvement Framework in schools. (5) Pupil Attendance and Exclusion monitoring Pupil attendance in school has been declining over a number of years. This is due to a number of factors such as the impact of covid, inequalities, additional supports needs and poor mental health and wellbeing. As a result, this can impact on pupil attainment, achievement as well as health and wellbeing. At the same time, the service in monitoring exclusion rates across all establishments with a view to these reducing. Service RR High Board Risk-Reporting This is a national issue which is being monitored on a monthly basis at DMT. Effective strategies and interventions are in place to support and improve attendance of identified children and young people. A number of our schools are participating in a national pilot developed by Education Scotland. There is an Emotional Based School Avoidance working group led by REPS developing a response to this issue locally. (6) Addressing Violence and Aggression Following feedback from staff and regular monitoring of data, the number of violent and aggressive incidents across the service has significantly increased and this poses a risk to children, young people and staff safety. It can lead to absence of children and young people which can have an impact on attainment, achievement and a sense of belonging. It can also have a significant impact on staff absence and wellbeing. Service RR High H&S Planning Group Work is ongoing to monitor violence and aggression in all establishments. A policy was recently launched as part of the support to colleagues and data is regularly reviewed from Business World. Strategies and interventions are in place to support the de-escalation of incidents. Addressing violence and aggression in the classroom must be considered in the context of Getting it Right for Every Learner. (7) Additional Support for Learning Establishments are reporting increased additional support needs and as a result require additional resource and staffing capacity to support needs all of learners within existing budgets. If needs are not supported, children and young people will not thrive in Service RR High Board / Committee Risk – Reporting Recent engagement sessions took place with staff to better understand the issues and potential solutions for schools going forward.
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33 | P a g e Risk (Cause and effect) Risk Capture Service RR Project RR H&S PLAN Evaluation Low Moderate High Very High Means of Monitoring Board Risk-Reporting SIP Project Board H&S Planning Group Notes their learning and can also have an impact on wellbeing and sense of belonging. (8) 21 Hours The Scottish Government have committed to a reduction in teacher class contact time from 22.5 hours to 21 hours. This commitment was made in recognition of the workload pressures that Scotland's teachers faced. To deliver, this would require significant planning time as well as an increase in teacher numbers which would have financial implications. Service RR High Board / Committee Risk – Reporting The service is awaiting further announcements from Scottish Government around timescales. However, a desktop staffing exercise has been conducted to assess service implications. (9) Portfolio Management Unintended delays in progress in each of the three portfolios listed below will impact on our ability to ensure that children and young people thrive, learning and achieve: 1. Curriculum, learning, teaching and assessment; 2. Inclusion; and 3. Families and Communities Project RR Moderate Project Board Effective governance arrangements are in place with oversight, leadership and direction being provided by the Portfolio Governance Board which meets on a monthly basis. The three portfolio groups provide updates to the Board. (10) Availability of Alternative Care Placement (Foster Care and Residential Care) This could result in a higher level of risk being managed within the community. Service RR Moderate Board/Committee Risk -Reporting Case managed by Social Work Management Teams with contingency plans in place. Environment, Housing and Infrastructure Services (11) Commercial Vehicle and Operators License Renfrewshire Council requires its fleet of vehicles to be effectively managed, otherwise there could be sustained impact in several areas including community care, housing maintenance and repairs, Neighbourhood Services and waste collection. Service RR High Board Risk-Reporting The fleet comprises around 500 vehicles including heavy and large goods vehicles, light vans and cars. The council implements a range of governance and operational measures to ensure ongoing vehicle operator licence compliance. External auditors carry out ongoing 6 monthly reviews of the operator’s compliance licence. (12) Review of electric vehicle (fleet) infrastructure Service RR High Board Risk-Reporting Electric Vehicle fleet comprises around 102 vehicles. The council implements a range of measures to ensure vehicles
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34 | P a g e Risk (Cause and effect) Risk Capture Service RR Project RR H&S PLAN Evaluation Low Moderate High Very High Means of Monitoring Board Risk-Reporting SIP Project Board H&S Planning Group Notes Risks associated with the installation of charging facilities were managed during the related installation projects. There is however a need to review any residual risks that remain in relation to the siting, inspection, and maintenance of the facilities, to further reduce any risks to people or property within their vicinity. are roadworthy and serviced accordingly. The EV Charging Infrastructure is electrically tested at final commissioning stage by a competent EV contractor. EV Chargers are serviced annually as part of warranty/ maintenance contract. Chargers are also monitored remotely by the contractor for any faults and site attended by contractor if fault is not able to be fixed by back-office support. (13) Tree Fall and Ash Die Back & Larch Infection With the emergence of Ash Die back in the UK there is now an increased potential for public injury and property damage, awards against the Council, reputational damage and statutory notices Service RR High Board Risk-Reporting The main trigger for this risk was a significant outbreak of Ash Dieback in the UK which is resulting in a significant number of trees within Renfrewshire having to be felled. Ash dieback work is continuing, and no new species have been identified. (14) Alcohol, drugs or prescription medication impacting employee performance If the Council is unable to identify employees whose performance is impaired by alcohol, drugs or prescription medications when driving or operating machinery, this could lead to an adverse event with impact on employees, service users, and/ or local citizens, and the Council’s Commercial Vehicle and Operator's Licence. Service RR High Board Risk-Reporting The Council fleet currently includes around 75 LGVs (Large Goods Vehicles) and social transport buses. The current corporate policy will be reviewed to clarify ways in which we can identify employees who need support for their own wellbeing, and the general safety of themselves and others when operating equipment (15) Housing Regeneration and Renewal Programme Risks associated with delivering £100m regeneration and renewal programme. Project RR High Project Board Risk registers have been produced for each project and are regularly reviewed to identify, manage and mitigate known risks associated with the programme. (16) Housing IT System Replacement Programme Ensuring replacement system procured fulfils all requirements and is delivered within target. Project RR High Project Board Renewal of main system dealing with Housing Services, Housing Asset Management and Homeless Services.
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35 | P a g e Risk (Cause and effect) Risk Capture Service RR Project RR H&S PLAN Evaluation Low Moderate High Very High Means of Monitoring Board Risk-Reporting SIP Project Board H&S Planning Group Notes (17) Housing Landlord Compliance Risk of failing to comply with statutory duties in relation to landlord compliance. This could result in legal penalties, financial losses, reputational damage and potential harm to tenants, staff or appointed contractors. Service RR High Board Report Housing Landlord Strategy and two associated policies approved at March 25 Board. Four remaining policies to be reviewed and presented to Board in 2025. Additional policy on damp and mould to be established. Bi-annual Board reports to be presented with updates on Landlord compliance. Additional reassurance provided through internal and external audit and scrutiny checks. (18) Housing Investment Programme Risk of delivering approved capital investment programmes and ensuring stock complies with statutory and regulatory standards. Project RR Moderate Project Board Risk registers have been produced for each project and are regularly reviewed to identify, manage and mitigate known risks associated with the programme. (19) Disposal of Coal Tar Coal tar is now classed as hazardous waste material. There is consequently a knock-on risk to the council’s resurfacing scheme with some moderate delays in only a few locations as alternative solutions are developed. Service RR Moderate Board Reporting Once detected, it is moved from resurfacing to another treatment type which ensures the material remains in-situ. We test all roads / footways in advance of our Roads Capital programme. (20) Implementation of Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategy Key risk is reputational damage if the Council does not deliver on their Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategy and Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Delivery Plan. Both Strategy and Delivery Plan have been published. Work has commenced on the Delivery Plan. Project RR Moderate Board Reporting The Scottish Parliament passed the Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategies (Scotland) Order in May 2022. The LHEES Order places a duty on local authorities to prepare, publish and update a Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategy and Delivery Plan. (21) Collection Management / Routing Software for Waste and Recycling Service The Service is looking to improve performance and maximise efficiencies by procuring and implementing a new Waste & Recycling Management/Routing system. This will assist in the setup and day-to-day management of the waste and recycling collection service. There is a risk that during the implementation process the service to customers may fluctuate and they are not kept fully informed. Project RR Moderate Project Board A Project team is being assembled, with cross-service representation to ensure the effective procurement and implementation of the new Waste and Recycling Management System. The project team will be responsible for the planning and implementation of a comprehensive communication strategy at each stage of the project. The service will liaise with colleagues from Customer Services Unit to share information and ensure this is available to customers timeously.
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36 | P a g e Risk (Cause and effect) Risk Capture Service RR Project RR H&S PLAN Evaluation Low Moderate High Very High Means of Monitoring Board Risk-Reporting SIP Project Board H&S Planning Group Notes (22) Risk that waste and recycling contractors are unable to accept waste materials Service RR Moderate Board Risk-Reporting Arrangements are in place to address this risk through our procurement process. Work is on-going to explore the opportunities which may exist to develop a Waste Transfer Station for handling this material. (23) Recruiting suitable professional staff into key posts The Technical Unit has experienced major issues in recruiting suitable professional staff into key posts and this shows no sign of improving in the near future. This is likely to be exacerbated in future years due to the age profile of the senior officers with a large number nearing retirement. Vocational trainee placements were put in place for 2024/25 and this will continue into 2025/26. This is hoped that future qualified students will consider Renfrewshire Council as an employer of choice for future vacancies. Service RR Moderate Board Risk-Reporting Technical Unit officers are liaising with Glasgow Caledonian University to advertise for vocational trainees for 2026. Finance and Resources Services (24) Administration of elections While there are no planned electoral events until 2026, election preparedness is important on an ongoing basis to respond to snap elections or by-elections. If we are not prepared and do not monitor on an ongoing basis the supply chain relied upon for various elements of the then there is a risk that we will struggle to deliver the administration of an event with significant reputational impact. Service RR Moderate Board Risk-Reporting The council has a highly experienced group of staff that can be relied upon to lead and deliver on the governance, logistics, risk and contingency workstreams required to deliver an electoral event with integrity. There is also ongoing monitoring of supply chain, such as for printing and distribution of postal votes, ballots papers, availability of electronic voting equipment etc.
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37 | P a g e Appendix 4: Business-as-Usual Risks The council has 12 areas of risk monitored via BaURAM © Renfrewshire Council. Each Head of Service (and other officers who report directly to a Service Director), undertake an annual self-assessment against a set of questions for each risk and indicate what level of assurance they can provide in relation to how they and their teams perform in these areas. The image below shows the system output for 2024/25, and this compares favourably with the 2023/24 outputs. All modules show an improved position. The CRMG monitors a performance target of 95% module responses providing reasonable or substantial assurance. The KPI for the year is 97%. The most improved module this year, by way of a reduction in the number of limited responses was the health, safety and managing adverse events module (reducing from 4 limiteds to 1). It should be noted that the corporate risk function reports here on system outputs, whereas the Interim Chief Auditor will report separately on the quality of responses and levels of assurance, in discussion with individual Directors regarding the annual assurance statement A reminder of what the modules cover is provided overleaf. 12
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38 | P a g e While these are the council’s business-as-usual risks, where there is recognised need for specific corporate action in any of these aspects of risk, these are escalated from time to time to the corporate risk register. An example of this is nos. 2 and 7 below. Aspects of these risks are reflected not only within the risk assurance model but are also reflected in the corporate risk register. BAU RISK AREA ENCOMPASSING BAU RISK AREA ENCOMPASSING 1. Community & public safety Child and adult protection Serious and organised crime (external) 2. Asset management Statutory compliance Arrangements for void properties Fleet and other infrastructure ICT hardware and software assets and responsibilities 3. People wellbeing & development Staff health and wellbeing Training and development Corporate and local induction 4. Information handling GDPR compliance Information asset management Information security Records management 5. Health, safety & managing adverse events Staff incident recording RIDDOR arrangements Incident monitoring and trends analysis 6. Programme and project management Governance Compliance with industry standards/ adopted methods 7. Organisation resilience Business continuity: - Staffing resource - ICT and/ or power outages - Facility issue - Cyber security 8. Partnership management Partnership registers Agreements Liabilities 9. Financial control and governance Authorities and delegation Budgeting and accounting Conflict and whistleblowing Insider threat and crime Counter fraud 10. Service planning and performance monitoring Customer engagement Public/ stakeholder engagement KPI trends analysis Links to risk management and service improvement 11. Procurement and contract management Standing orders Roles and responsibilities Monitoring & Performance Mgt 12. Complaints, comments and claims handling Compliance Trends analysis Links to service improvement [Item End]