Appendix B - Assumptions Underlying Medium Term Financial Plan

Perth and Kinross Council · 4 October 2023
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APPENDIX B
Assumptions Underlying Medium Term Financial Plan 
Pay Inflation 
24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Optimistic 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Mid-Range 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Pessimistic 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 
Employer’s Superannuation – Local Government Pension Scheme 
24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Optimistic 0% - - 0% - -
Mid-Range 0% - - 1% - -
Pessimistic 1%- - - 2% - - 
Employer’s Superannuation – Scottish Public Pension Agency (Teachers) 
24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Optimistic 0% - - 0% - -
Mid-Range 0% - - 1% - -
Pessimistic 1%- - - 2% - - 
General Inflation 
24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Optimistic 2.5% 1.75% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Mid-Range 3.5% 2.75% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Pessimistic 4.5% 3.75% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 
Demographics – General Population 
24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Optimistic 0.0% (0.1)% (0.1)% (0.1)% (0.1)% (0.2)%
Mid-Range 0.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% (0.1)%
Pessimistic 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0%

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Demographics – Older People 
24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Optimistic 2.7% 2.2% 3.1% 6.4% 4.5% 3.6%
Mid-Range 2.8% 2.3% 3.2% 6.5% 4.6% 3.7%
Pessimistic 2.9% 2.4% 3.3% 6.6% 4.7% 3.8% 
Scottish Government Funding 
24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Optimistic 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Mid-Range 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Pessimistic -1% -1% -1% -1% 0% 0% 
Council Tax Charge 
24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Optimistic 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Mid-Range 3.9% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Pessimistic 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 
Council Tax – No. of Band D Properties 
24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Optimistic 800 800 800 800 800 800
Mid-Range 600 600 600 600 600 600
Pessimistic 400 400 400 400 400 400 
Fees & Charges 
24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Optimistic 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Mid-Range 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Pessimistic 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%