Appendix D - Climate Risk Register - Autumn 2025 Update
Perth and Kinross Council · 25 February 2026
Back to Perth and Kinross Council — 25 February 2026 and its agenda
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Risk code Sector Climate factor Risk Risk description Impact rationale Impact Score (1 Low - 3 High) Timescale Likelihood Rationale Likelihood Score (1 Low - 3 High) Combined Score Risk owner Action category Review cycle Related CCAP actions to address risk Comment BI2 Business and industry Precipitation Risks to business from flooding Flooding can severely disrupt businesses in both the short and long term. Flooding may mandate businesses closing for repairs, and may make it difficult for them to get insurance. The risk impact is assessed as high. If businesses are forced to close or become unviable due to flooding, this is a significant impact on business owners and customers. The costs associated with flooding damage may also be high. 3 Currently happening, expected to get worse Flooding already affects Perth and Kinross. Climate change is expected to make this worse both in terms of frequency and severity. 3 9 Flooding Team (Rick Haynes) Action needed Short 1 - 2 years R21, R23, R24 & B&I 12 CH1 Cultural heritage All Risks to cultural heritage from climatic changes and flooding Flooding can damage cultural heritage such as historic buildings. It may also require attractions to be closed to the public if they require repairs. More widely changes to cultural can occur from increased precipitation and moisture leading to increased condensation The risk impact is assessed as high. This is primarily due to the potential cost implications of damage to historic monuments and buildings - repair, restoration, and renovation of historic items can be very expensive, in the £10m plus range. If this is not viable and cultural heritage is lost, this is a negative impact on the population as a whole. 3 Currently happening, expected to get worse Flooding already affects Perth and Kinross. Climate change is expected to make this worse both in terms of frequency and severity. 3 9 Flooding Team (Rick Haynes) Action needed Short 1 - 2 years R21, R23, R24 HCB14 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Precipitation Risks to health and wellbeing and homes from flooding Flooding to homes may have severe short-term consequences in the time during and immediately after the flood event; extreme cases would be loss of life if (for example) rivers burst banks. There are also a range of medium to long term consequences such as water contamination or damage to housing. Finally, there are severe mental health impacts such as stress, which could be caused by flooding or ancillary effects such The flooding extents and current experience show that flooding is a risk throughout the council area, and will affect urban areas such as Perth and Blairgowrie. Population is concentrated in urban areas so the number of people affected by flooding will be high. The overall cost due to health impacts is difficult to estimate but could be very high both in terms of emergency care and care for longer-term conditions such as PTSD. There can also be significant 3 Currently happening, expected to get worse Flooding already affects Perth and Kinross. Climate change is expected to make this worse both in terms of frequency and severity. 3 9 Flooding Team (Rick Haynes) Action required Short 1 - 2 years R20, R21, R23, R24, R30, R36 I14 Infrastructure Precipitation Risks to bridges and pipelines from flooding and erosion The increased likelihood of storms due to climate change has resulted in increased damage to bridges and pipelines, with high river flows thought to be contributing to this. Furthermore, warmer temperatures may be accelerating weathering-related deterioration for embankments. Within Perth and Kinross, there is a major long-term project undertaking scour assessments of 440no. bridges across the council area. Preliminary assessments have identified around 100 higher risk structures and detailed studies have been developed for several sites. Many key bridges have been identified as needing 3 Currently happening, expected to get worse Several bridges have already been impacted by scour, with several more identified at high risks 3 9 Structures Team (Derek Davidson) Action needed Short 1 - 2 years R12 N1 Nature All Risks to flora and fauna from climatic changes This risks comprises of the various impacts that changing temperature might have on terrestrial species, this includes increases in both maximum and minimum summer and winter temperatures as well as changes to annual average temperatures. Terrestrial species are likely to be impacted by multiple different climate variables changing. For example, the hotter summers and decreased snowfall will likely affect specific montane species too, which in turn, will have cascading impacts on other 3 now to late century - already evidence of reduced snowfall and increased precipitation which can impact wildlife. Some of these changes are already occurring - this combined with biodiversity loss form other drivers makes terrestrial species more vulnerable there are so many variables it is likely that at least some changes occur and 3 9 External - Nature Scot Action needed Short 1 - 2 years R15, L9, L10, L15, L18, L22 N4 Nature All Risks to soils from changing climate Risks to soils from changing climatic conditions, including seasonal aridity and wetness - which is likely to degrade soils and have knock on impacts on Climate risk to soil will increase in Scotland due to heavier rainfall events, which will likely result in erosion, compaction and 3 uncertain Soils are sensitive to even a small amount of change to temperature of moisture and so given the projected climate change this risk is highly likely. 3 9 External - Nature Scot Action needed Short 1 - 2 years L9, L22 Perth and Kinross Area-wide Risks
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N6 Nature All Risks to freshwater species and habitats from changing climatic conditions and habitats from pests, pathogens and invasive species Risks to freshwater species and habitats from changing climatic conditions and extreme events, including higher water temperatures, flooding, water scarcity and phenological shifts it more intense rainfall, rivers are likely to become more flashy, more erosive and potentially have lower summer base flows. These changes will have negative impacts on several species, in particular salmon and freshwater pearl mussel. Moreover, more intense rainfall may also mean higher flow though lochs and other freshwater habitats and risks disturbing polluted sediments. High temperatures also impact freshwater habitats and the species that occupy them, which can result in loss of sensitive species and changes in phenology and species composition. Higher temperatures can also directly or indirectly increase the possibility of water 3 now to late century Some of these changes are already occurring - this combined with biodiversity loss form other drivers makes freshwater species more vulnerable there are so many variables it is likely that at least some changes occur and cause impacts described for this risk. 3 9 External - Nature Scot Action needed Short 1 - 2 years R14, R15, L9, L10, L18, L22 HCB19- New Health, Communities and the Built Environment Temperature and precipitation Wildfires Increased temperature and prolonged periods of drought provide an increased risk of wildfires. This has the potential to impact on nature, carbon storage, air quality, homes, infrastructure, tourism and more Medium to high risk due to the wide range of impacts and current lack of systemic preparedness to control the risk if it occurs 3 now to mid century In summer 2025 areas of PKC had extreme and very high wildfire risk forecasts 3 9 External - Scottish Fire and Rescue Needs better understanding Short 1 - 2 years R2 New risk - actions to be be developed further in Year 5 (2026) HCB20 -New Health, Communities and the Built Environment All Climate induced food inflation Climate induced food inflation in the UK is currently projected at between 25% (1.5C) to 34% (2C) in real terms by 2050, with spikes expected in specific food groups following climatic events. This is expected to contribute to food insecurity, food poverty and a potential reduction in nutrition of lower income groups. The impact will be high as will impact all households in P&K. The scale of severe impacts has not yet been quantified - national research is ongoing looking at expected nutritional impacts 3 now to mid century It is a high likelihood that at least 25% inflation is already locked in due to emissions rises already occurred 3 9 PKC (TBC) Needs better understanding Short 1 - 2 years New risk - actions to be be developed further in Year 5 (2026) BI3 Business and industry Multiple climate variables Risks to business from disruption to supply chains and distribution networks Weather is a significant cause of supply chain disruption across all sectors. Climate hazards such as heavy rainfall and surface water flooding, heating and high temperatures are the weather types that cause the greatest number of weather-related supply chain disruptions. This causes significant negative impacts on businesses which are not able to continue making their products or offering their services. As supply chains and distribution networks are globalised, this risk is affected more than other by global conditions. For example, severe weather conditions in certain This is a high impact risk as disruption to supply chains can severely disrupt businesses and will impact on food prices costing millions in loss of income. Perth and Kinross's economy is highly reliant on food and hospitality and the construction industry which would be reliant on supplied form outside of the UK. 3 Possibly mid-century - depending on where supplies come from. This is highly uncertain and difficult to understand without zooming on individual products and countries of origin - therefore this is given a medium. It is also very difficult to understand how reliant different businesses are on oversees imports. 2 6 Employability and Skills (Graham Pinfield) More research needed Medium 3- 4 years Risk should be owned by individual businesses, but some centralised PKC or Scottish analysis could be beneficial HCB13 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Precipitation Risks to education from flooding Flooding has the potential to severely disrupt education in both the short and long term. In the short term, pupils may need to be sent home and schools may be There are ten educational facilities within the extents of river flooding including the impacts of climate change; Architrave, Inch View, Kirkmichael, North Muirton, Royal 2 Currently happening, expected to get worse Flooding already affects Perth and Kinross and has disrupted education previously. Climate change is expected to make this worse both in terms of 3 6 Flooding Team (Rick Haynes) & Property (Grant Key) Action required Short 1 - 2 years R21, R23, R24 I15 Infrastructure Precipitation Risks to infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) from flooding induced cascading failures Flooding can severely disrupt infrastructure networks and cause cascading failures which affect other interlinked networks. Cascading failures are by definition high impact as they affect multiple systems adversely, as the overall effect is amplified due to system interdependencies. 3 Expected to get more likely through the century The SEPA flood maps used to analyse the risk of flooding are the "1 in 200 year plus climate change" likelihood. The likelihood of this level of flooding occurring is 2 6 External - Infrastructure operators Action needed Short 1 - 2 years R2, R21, R23, R25 I17 Infrastructure Precipitation Risk to private water supplies from reduced water availability Drier summer could affect ground water levels and therefore private water supplies Disruption to water are services is highly disruptive. It affects everyone including vulnerable groups. Private water supplies being affected can be particularly impactful as recipients may be in remote areas, or it may be difficult to provide alternative sources if 2 Currently happening, expected to get worse There have been issues already with private water supplies so this is more likely in the future. 3 6 Regulatory Services (Ian Thomas) Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years No diect action in the CCAP, but there is ongoing work by the Council's Regulatory Services to reduce the impact for households of this risk I18 Infrastructure Precipitation Risks to infrastructure services from river and surface water flooding There is an increased risk to all infrastructure from surface water flooding. The impact is assessed to be high as flooding is known to affect Perth and Kinross currently, and climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity. Damage and disruption 3 Currently happening, expected to get worse The SEPA flood maps used to analyse the risk of flooding are the "1 in 200 year plus climate change" likelihood. The likelihood of this level of flooding occurring is 2 6 Flooding (Rick Haynes) Action needed Short 1 - 2 years R21, R23, R24
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I19 Infrastructure Precipitation Landslip risks to transport networks and infrastructure from slope and embankment failure The increased incidence of high rainfall, combined with periods of lower-than-average rainfall, are expected to contribute to increased rates of slope and embankment failure. The deterioration processes are not The impact is assessed as medium. Upland areas are noted as being more prone to natural slope failures, which is relevant to areas of Perth and Kinross such as the Cairngorms. Flash flooding is also noted as a risk in urban 3 Expected to get more likely through the century High-intensity precipitation is expected to increase, as are periods of low precipitation. The combination of these means the probability is medium. 2 6 Structures Team (Derek Davidson) Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years R35 I5 Infrastructure Temperature Risks to Embankments High temperatures may affect earth embankment structures for dams and reservoirs by reducing vegetation on them, reducing their stability The impact score for this is high as any failing dam will cause flooding. 3 Expected to get more likely through the century Climate change will make high temperatures affecting embankments networks more likely. 2 6 External - Scottish Water Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years Led by Scottish Water I7 Infrastructure Temperature Risks to transport from high temperatures High temperatures can cause a range of detrimental effects to transport infrastructure, such as rail buckling and road surface expansion. As infrastructure networks are connected, disruption in other areas may have cascading effects on Perth and Kinross, such as the East Coast mainline. However, overall, the magnitude of temperature increases should not affect transport infrastructure to a large extent. Extreme events are more likely due to climate change and this may increase the risk. Damage to rural sections of transport infrastructure may be particularly significant to Perth and Kinross as it may cut off communities. The 2022 summer heatwave resulted in significant rail disruption with rails buckling and speed limits imposed as far as Aberdeenshire. Disruption to transport networks affects broad sections of the population so the impact is assessed as high. 3 Currently happening, expected to get worse Climate change will make high temperatures affecting transport networks more likely. Periodically happening in localised events, yet to have widespread local impacts 2 6 Road Management Partnership (Willie Mahoney) & Public Transport Unit (Margaret Roy) Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years R37 N2 Nature All Risks to terrestrial species and habitats from pests and pathogens, including Invasive Non-Native Species This risk compromises of the changing climate facilitating an increase in pests, pathogens or non-native species, which would have a detrimental impact on the current (or native species). Trees could be impacted by pathogens, these are of particular concern to larch, commercial forestry, and pinewoods. Of particular concern in Scotland are Phytophthora armour, a fungus- like pathogen that is a particular threat to larch, and Dothistroma needle blight (DNB), which poses a particular threat to Scotland’s commercial forestry and also to 3 uncertain The likelihood is uncertain as climatic changes is just one of many factors which help pests and pathogens thrive. Moreover, different pests and pathogens as well as non- native species would migrate and establish themselves at different rates, therefore this risk is better assessed on a species by species scale which 2 6 External - Nature Scot More research needed Short 1 - 2 years R15 N7 (Combined with N6) Nature All Risks to freshwater species Risks to freshwater species and habitats from pests, pathogens and invasive species which will have a detrimental impact on current species and overall biodiversity. 3 uncertain The likelihood is uncertain as climatic changes is just one of many factors which help pests and pathogens thrive. Moreover, different pests and pathogens as well as non- 2 6 Action needed Short 1 - 2 years Combined with N6 HCB18 - New Health, Communities and the Built Environment Increased storminess Damage to people and property from ash dieback linked to increased storm intensity Ash Dieback is impacting several thousand trees across Perth and Kinross Council. The increased brittleness of the disease makes the trees more vulnerable to snapping and breaking during storm events 2 now to mid century Risk already occurring - Ash Dieback screening and removal process started will help to mitigate this risk 3 6 Greenspace (Andy Clegg) & External Action ongoing Short 1 - 2 years R33 I8 Infrastructure Temperature Risks to digital from high temperatures, low temperatures, high winds An increase in frequency or intensity of extreme climate events can have a detrimental impact on digital networks such as telecommunications The specific risk to Perth and Kinross may be in rural areas; severe weather may cut off communities physically and digitally, hindering repair and 2 Currently happening, effect of temperature on future occurrence is uncertain but may make occurrences more The risk likelihood is assessed as medium as temperatures are expected to increase in all scenarios. 2 4 External - network providers Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years R20 While owned by infrastructure providers, ongoing work with Community Resilience Groups to help them develop independent communication mechanism (e.g. radios)
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HCB15 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Precipitation Risks to prison services from flooding Prison services can be disrupted by flooding in several ways; prison facilities such as HMP Perth may be damaged, and other functions such as probation workers may be disrupted. HMP Perth is largely out with the 2080 medium at risk flooding plus climate change extents although one building sits partially within. Severe flooding damage to the prison estate could result in damages between £1-10m, and necessary reactive measures such as transport for prisoners may also incur significant costs. As a proportion of the population, the number of people affected is relatively low. Due to the potential financial impact, the impact is assessed as medium. 2 Flooding currently affects Perth and Kinross; it is difficult to specifically apply timescales to flooding affecting prison services as it is probabilities but it is more likely to be post 2080 as SEPA 2080 mapping largely shows the prison buildings largely out with at risk areas prior. HMP Perth has buildings within the low likelihood flood extents, and also part of one of the buildings is within the 2080 medium at risk area. Climate change is expected to increase the likelihood of these low-likelihood events, so the likelihood is assessed as medium post 2080. 2 4 TBC Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years Will be supported by wider flooding actions HCB2 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Temperature and precipitation Increased damp and condensation in homes. Warmer / wetter winters leading to higher levels of damp and condensation in homes, which result in mould, with knock on health impacts and damage to homes. Homes most prone to this This would impact on individual health and cost to repair the problem or upgrade homes to reduce damp. This could be fairly widespread as 24% of PKC properties are-pre-1919 and 2 Mid century The projections show that warmer winter are highly like by the mid-century under a high emissions scenario and so the s is score medium. 2 4 TBC More research needed Medium 3- 4 years B2 & B8 Will be supported by actions to improve the quality and energy efficiency of P&K housing stock HCB3 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Temperature Risks to air quality Climate change, through creating atmospheric conditions favouring ozone formation, has been and will continue to increase ozone concentrations. This causes risks to air quality targets as well as health. The air quality within Perth and Kinross is generally good; however, there are a few known hotspots within Perth city centre and Crieff. The main pollutants of concern are Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Particulate Matter (PM10) from vehicle emissions. NO2 may increase due to increased temperatures which could impact existing hotspots. 2 Mid to late century. Though Perth and Kinross's summer temperatures will increase they are not projected to be as high as other parts of the UK. However as hotspots already exist there is the possibility of these being impacted by temperature increases. 2 4 Environmental Health (Kirsty Stevens) More research needed Short 1 - 2 years T24 Monitor and review I1 Infrastructure Precipitation Risks to infrastructure networks from coastal flooding and erosion The rise in sea levels due to climate change will increase coastal erosion and flooding. Coastal communities will be particularly vulnerable. Flooding can impact key infrastructure networks such as water, wastewater, and energy. Perth and Kinross does not have a true coastal area, though there are tidal areas in the Tay Estuary such as Invergowrie and Perth. Sea level rise will contribute to estuarine erosion and flooding. The financial damage caused by flooding can be very high, 2 Currently happening, expected to get worse Flooding already affects Perth and Kinross, however much of this is fluvial or surface flooding, coastal flooding is not currently a significant problem. Sea level rise, means that an increase in coastal flooding could be a 2 4 TBC Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years R26 Monitor and review I10 Infrastructure Precipitation Risks to hydroelectric generation from low or high river flows The projected increase in high- intensity precipitation may pose a risk of equipment damage due to high flows. Low flows may also mean that revenue derived from hydroelectric power is reduced. Hydroelectric power is affected by both low and high river flows. In Perth and Kinross, there are numerous small-scale hydroelectric power installations. This has the potential to affect a small number of people severely if power supplies are disrupted. There is also the possibility of financial costs incurred from equipment damage. The risk impact is assessed as medium. 2 Currently happening, expected to get worse Winter precipitation is expected to increase, and summer precipitation is expected to decrease overall with short-term intensity remaining similar, suggesting more variable rainfall. This risk is assessed as medium likelihood. 2 4 External - Energy suppliers Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review I11 Infrastructure Temperature Risk to transport from low temperatures Low temperatures can disrupt transport infrastructure, such as icy roads disrupting bus routes. This may be particularly significant The impact is assessed as medium. This is a known risk for Perth and Kinross and measures are in place to cope with winter 2 Currently happening, increased frequency/severity of extreme events may Assessed as medium likelihood, noting while temperatures are expected to increase on average, transport 2 4 Road Management Partnership (Willie Mahoney) Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review I12 Infrastructure Wind Risks to transport from high winds Wind speeds are expected to reduce on average so the risks posed by high winds may be lower due to climate change. However, the likelihood of storms and gusts is uncertain. The financial impact of this may be between £1-10m if for example overhead line equipment on rail lines is significantly damaged by falling trees. Disruption will also affect (e.g.) commuters and impacts out with P&K boundaries will also impact on P&K (e.g. Tay Bridge closures in Dundee). 2 Currently happening; the probability of increase or decrease is difficult to assess as effect of climate change on high winds and gusts is uncertain. Overall wind speed is expected to decrease slightly. The overall wind speed decrease is small in absolute terms. The uncertainty associated with future storms/gusts means this risk is assessed as medium but noted as highly uncertain. 2 4 Road Management Partnership (Willie Mahoney) & Public Transport Unit (Margaret Roy) Better understanding needed Long term 5+ years Monitor and review I13 Infrastructure Precipitation Risks to subterranean and surface infrastructure from subsidence Increased precipitation, on average or in short-term intense bursts, poses a risk to above and below ground infrastructure as ground conditions may change suddenly or previous design conditions may no longer be appropriate. The financial impact of this may be between £1-10m if for example gas or water pipelines are affected by subsidence. This has the possibility of affecting people severely if energy/water is disrupted. Houses being at an increased risk of subsidence is also a potentially severe impact, though impacts are expected to be localised. 2 An increase in high- intensity precipitation events makes subsidence more likely, though the extent of this is uncertain and would require more detailed analysis of ground conditions in the area. The uncertainty associated with the current and possible future state of subsidence means this risk is assessed as medium but noted as highly uncertain. 2 4 TBC Action needed Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review
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I4 Infrastructure Wind Risks to energy infrastructure from high winds Wind speeds are expected to reduce on average so the risks posed by high winds may be lower due to climate change. However, the likelihood of storms and gusts is uncertain. Reduction in wind speed may also reduce power produced from wind farms, a Overall, the risk impact is assessed as low. Wind speed decrease may affect energy generation. Household impacts due to loss of power linked to high winds are currently having a big impact on many communities 2 Currently happens; may become less frequent but more severe with falling wind speeds but potentially more extreme events. Wind speeds are expected to decrease slightly so this is assessed as medium likelihood. 2 4 TBC Monitor risk Long term 5+ years Monitor and review N11 Nature Precipitation/stor ms Risks to from changing climatic conditions and extreme weather events: This risk comprises of how changes to the frequency and intensity of storms might impact upon terrestrial species. 2 Mid to late century. Storm projections are more uncertain than other projections, but overall they are likely to become more intense due to more energy in the system. The likelihood of storms impacting species on a widescale however is uncertain as some species are well sheltered form storms therefore a likely hood score of 2 is given. 2 4 Action needed Short 1 - 2 years Monitor and review N9 Nature All Risks and opportunities from climate change to landscape character This risks/opportunity takes into account how future changes to landscape character will occur from a range of natural responses to change climate including alterations to biodiversity, soils, geomorphology, hydrological processes, and coastal processes. Landscape character will also be modified by indirect effects of a changing climate, such as through land use change such as new cropping systems. There is little research specifically on this but given P & K’s link to tourism this is likely to be a relevant risk. This is discussed further in both cultural heritage and risks to tourism. Due to the importance of both tourism and agriculture to Perth and Kinross combined with the fact this may also bring opportunities this risk is classified as medium. 2 uncertain Highlight undertrain on the timing and specific drivers of change - however, the extent of projected change to the climate in Perth and Kinross makes some change inevitable. 2 4 Local Development Plan Needs better understanding Long term 5+ years Monitor and review BI5 Business and industry Temperature Risks to business from reduced employee productivity due to infrastructure disruption and higher temperatures in working environments Infrastructure disruption may make it harder for employees to get to the workplace if, for example, they rely on the train for their commute. This is likely to have a greater effect on employees who cannot work remotely such as construction or healthcare workers. These two sectors, amongst others, could also be affected by higher temperatures making work environments unsafe or difficult. Unsuitable building design in, for example, a hospital, could cause issues during heatwaves. Extreme high temperatures are likely to impact the health and wellbeing of employees, and their ability to commute to work. Whilst heat impacts are widely recognised in the context of labour productivity, there is limited evidence on future risks. Moreover, it is recognised that the impacts of heat vary widely across business sectors. This is a high impact risk as overall, though l the temperature rise in Perth and Kinross is not expected to be significant, most industries could be impacted by heat if extreme heatwaves were to occur. Many of Perth and Kinross's industries are based on outdoors - these workers are particularly exposed. Air conditioning is very low in Perth and Kinross meaning may buildings could overheat and impact productivity. The high score is mainly due to the widescale potential of this impact. With almost all businesses in Perth and Kinross being at risk in some way is a severe heat wave were to hit. 3 Late century Temperatures causing significant disruption to working conditions is unlikely in Perth and Kinross. 1 3 TBC Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review
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HCB11 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Temperature Risks to health and social care delivery from higher temperatures Social Care Staff may be affected by higher summer temperatures. Buildings and equipment could also overheat. Due to the health impacts described in risk HCB8, more pressure may be placed on health care during heatwaves. Perth and Kinross's has both a lower baseline and lower projected summer temperature increases than other parts of the UK. So the impact to Perth and Kinross may be lower. However, if hospitals do overheat, patients being already ill are likely to be highly vulnerable to heat. Pressure from increased demand would mean if buildings or equipment did function this would have a serious impact during the heatwave and knock on impacts after as normal services catch up to demand. Therefore, the impact is high. 3 Mid to late century. P &K not likely to experience extreme temperature and temperatures of above 30 until later in the century. Health impacts can start to be seen from 25C, which projections show are unlikely to have a significant rise in occurances until closer to mid- centrury. 1 3 TBC More research needed Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review HCB8 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Temperature Risks to health and wellbeing from high temperatures Higher summer temperatures and particularly heatwaves have an established link with premature deaths and illnesses. Heat related morbidity in the form of specific heat illness is also a problem. Heat Impact for PKC: Urban areas are more at risk due to the UHI effect, therefore, Perth the counties largest urban settlement which is likely to experience an UHI effect. This is exacerbated by certain vulnerabilities in different groups 3 Mid to late century. Perth and Kinross currently experiences temperatures lower then the UK average with heat not being a significant risk. Only later in the century under RCP 8.5 does the summer 1 3 TBC Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review I16 Infrastructure Temperature Risks to infrastructure networks (water, energy, transport, ICT) cascading failures from higher temperatures High temperatures can cause a range of detrimental effects to infrastructure networks, and cause cascading failures which affect other interlinked networks. Cascading failures are by definition high impact as they affect multiple systems adversely, as the overall effect is amplified due to system interdependencies. 3 Expected to get more likely through the century Despite the projected increases in temperature it is unlikely that the temperature in Perth and Kinross will reach levels impacting the functioning of key infrastructure - and if it does during particular extreme periods this will be uncommon. 1 3 TBC No action needed Long term 5+ years Monitor and review I2 Infrastructure Temperature Risks to energy from high temperatures At a UK level, high temperatures can affect energy systems by (e.g.) reducing electricity generation from thermal generators and increasing the likelihood of faults on the electricity network. The projected temperature rise in Perth and Kinross is not expected to place excessive strain on the UK grid. However, there is a possibility of faults in other areas having knock-on effects. Disruption to energy supplies, in general, affects large numbers of people - for this reason, the risk is assessed as high. 3 Becomes more likely at higher temperatures, likely to be later in the century. The projected temperature rise in Perth and Kinross is not expected to significantly increase the likelihood of disruption to energy networks. 1 3 TBC Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review I20 Infrastructure Precipitation Risks to public water supplies from reduced water availability Climate change is expected to result in areas of the UK being in water deficit. However, Scotland is expected to remain in supply- demand surplus over the next century. Therefore, this risk is not expected to affect the Perth and Kinross area to a significant extent. However, there is still the possibility of localised water stress during dry periods. An increase in frequency or intensity of extreme climate events can have a detrimental impact on water quality and supply by (for example) damaging wastewater treatment works. Disruption to water and wastewater services is highly disruptive. It affects everyone including vulnerable groups. The negative impacts associated with disruption to water supplies are wide-ranging and severe - this is a key driver for the UK water industry's focus on resilience. The financial impacts can be significant both to individuals and organisations, and large numbers of people may be affected significantly. The risk is assessed as high. 3 Expected to get more likely through the century The probability is low as water scarcity should not be an issue in Scotland. 1 3 Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review I3 Infrastructure Temperature Risk to energy from low temperatures The effect of low temperatures is generally related to coincident weather such as rain, sleet, and snow, which can increase the likelihood of faults. The overall impact of climate change on energy systems is unclear. Low temperatures drive energy demand for winter heating. Winters are expected to get warmer throughout the century. However, events such as more intense winter storms are expected to become more likely. Disruption to energy supplies, in general, affects large numbers of people - for this reason, the risk is assessed as high. 3 Currently happening, may become less frequent but more severe with rising temperatures but more extreme events. Temperatures are expected to increase so this is assessed as medium likelihood 1 3 TBC Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review
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BI4 Business and industry Precipitation Risks to businesses from water scarcity Businesses use water for many purposes, from cooling and heating, to washing products, dissolving chemicals and as a direct input to products. Moreover, they also use water indirectly through their employees, who use it for drinking, washing and sanitary purposes. As a result, water scarcity has many negative impacts on businesses. It can disrupt business continuity, especially in very water intensive sectors such as food and beverages. If not well managed, risk of water shortage is projected to become material in investment and employment for water- intense sectors. Another impact of water scarcity, especially when combined with increasing hot temperatures and droughts, is the impact it has on people, who might not be able to come to work, or have a reduced demand for certain services and products – which ultimately has a negative impact on business productivity Due to the reliance of some of the large industries such as fruit productions and whiskey production on water. If this was to occur, this would cost businesses millions in direct loss. This may have other impacts down the line, e.g. loss of contracts. 2 Mid century Perth and Kinross is not expected to be affected significantly by water scarcity according to SEPA projections. However, data on direct water abstraction by businesses in Scotland is not available, and it is possible that certain businesses with high water needs such as whisky distilleries may be affected. However, some businesses which are more rural and rely on private water supplies may be impacted. This is less than 10% of the population and so this likelihood is low. 1 2 External - Scottish Water Monitor risk Short 1 - 2 years Monitor and review BI6 Business and industry Sea level Risks to business locations and infrastructure from coastal change Perth and Kinross has a limited coastal region but coastal change may have an outsize impact on businesses situated on or near the coast. Cascading effects such as the effect of coastal erosion on infrastructure may also be significant. A very small proportion of business are likely to be impacted by costal change due to the lack of coastline in Perth and Kinross. However, there are businesses within the large Tay estuary, such as businesses in and around Perth Harbour that are within projected coastal and surface flooding extents. 2 Late century Perth and Kinross has a small coastal area so this is a low probability risk. 1 2 TBC No action needed Long term 5+ years Monitor and review HCB16 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Precipitation Risks to health and social care delivery from flooding Flooding may affect critical care services such as A&E departments. It may also affect social care services such as home visits and care homes by affecting transport infrastructure. Furthermore, in times of flooding, demand on these services may be higher. There are no hospitals located within any of the flooding extent maps (surface water, river, and coastal). We do not currently have access to data on other healthcare facilities such as GP surgeries and outpatient centres. The financial impact of disruption to health and social care could be very high; for example, disruption to hospitals may require patients with complex needs being moved. Furthermore, disruption to health services may have severe impacts on those who need it most (recipients of critical or social care). As a result, the risk impact is assessed as medium 2 Flooding currently affects Perth and Kinross; it is difficult to specifically apply timescales to flooding affecting health services but it is thought to be more likely later in the century. Hospitals are not within the projected flood extents. We do not have data related to social care delivery; this uncertainty factor means the overall likelihood is assessed as medium. 1 2 TBC Monitor risk Medium 3- 4 years Engage with HSCP and NHS-Tayside to better understand risks HCB17 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Temperature Risks to prison services from high temperatures Heat related illness for inmates and staff, need to move prisoners if temperatures in some areas of the prisons become too high. Only one prison in the Perth and Kinross area. Only 2 prisons. so not a widespread risk when taking in to account the overall population of Perth and Kinross - usually older buildings remain cooler. It is uncertain how likely this is to overheat. This was given a score of medium but more work is needed to understand this risk. 2 Mid to late century. Perth and Kinross currently experiences temperatures lower then the UK average with heat not being a significant risk. Only later in the century under RCP 8.5 does the summer temperatures begin to rise significantly - around 4 degrees. Before then and under lower scenarios the summer rise is projected to be below 2 degrees on average. Heatwaves are expected to increase though again this will rarely reach above 30degrees and will be less severe than other parts of the UK 1 2 TBC More research needed Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review
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HCB7 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Temperature Risks to education from high temperatures Schools closure, risk of heat related illness to children or vulnerable adults (vulnerable to heat) or staff. Reduction in learning/cognitive performance. Building design of schools is key determinant of heat risks. Some naturally ventilated modern schools often have more problems with increased risk of overheating. Classrooms most at risk are south- facing and those with top-floor classrooms. People need to actually go outside more to feel these benefits, many factors influence this so the impact purely from climate change may not be high. Equally some summer days may be come to hot to encourage exercise. Children and adults with learning difficulties are highly vulnerable to heat and so if schools have overheating problems this could have serious impacts on their health, school closures have knock on economic impacts. Both loss of learning hours and parents needing to take time off work. However this is likely to be concentrated in schools with buildings likely to overheat and not widespread across Perth and Kinross. Due to only a smaller % of the population being impacted but those being some of the most vulnerable a impact core of 2 was given. 2 Mid to late century. Though Perth and Kinross's summer temperatures will increase they are not projected to be as high as other parts of the UK. However, some schools may be located in poorly designed buildings which will make this risk more likely. Additionally, schools are not open during 6 weeks of the warmest periods of the year. 1 2 TBC More research needed Medium 3- 4 years Monitor and review HCB12 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Temperature Risks from summer household energy demand Summer cooling Currently, the use of mechanical air conditioning in residential buildings is very low, although it is increasingly common in non- domestic buildings (offices and retail premises). Though an increases in cooling days are projected for the UK this is smaller for Scotland and negligible at +2 degrees scenario. Perth and Kinross's has both a lower baseline and lower projected summer temperature increases than other parts of the UK. Meaning, that air conditioning is less likely to be installed and so the impact on summer energy is not likely to be high and should impact less than 10% of the population. However, if it did occur, it could hamper the areas low carbon transition plans. 1 Late century Perth and Kinross not likely to experience extreme temperature and temperatures of above 30 until later in the century. Areas of London currently experience high temperatures above 30 in heatwaves, however air conditioning is not widespread there and so even by the end of the century it is unlikely that many people implement air conditioning in Perth and Kinross. 1 1 TBC Monitor risk Long term 5+ years Monitor and review
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Risk code Category Climate factor Risk Risk description Impact rationale Impact Score (1 Low - 3 High) Timescale Likelihood Rationale likelihood Score (1 Low - 3 High) Combined Score Action category Risk Owner Related CCAP actions to address risk Comment PKC6 Risk Precipitation Risks to housing and housing provision from flooding Climate change is expected to increase the number of houses affected by flooding as well as influence areas future houses can be built. The risk is assessed as high as the damage caused to housing may be very expensive, and the effect on people is very severe. 3 Currently happening, expected to increase through the century Flooding already affects Perth and Kinross and is expected to become more frequent/severe. 3 9 Action needed Housing & Flooding R21, R23, R24 Will be partially addressed by delivery of wider P&K flooding projects Housing team doing some property flood resilience work - very limited funds - applying resourcing PKC16 - New Risk All Budget and service pressure due to climate induced food inflation Climate induced food inflation in the UK is currently projected at between 25% (1.5C) to 34% (2C) in real terms by 2050, with spikes expected in specific food groups following climatic events. This is expected to impact on service budgets, especially Education and HSCP. This will also lead to service impacts due to food insecurity, food poverty and a potential reduction in nutrition of lower income groups. The impact will be medium to high - 25% of the school meals contract would be an annual increase of £1-2M in real terms by 2050 2 now to mid century It is a high likelihood that at least 25% inflation is already locked in due to emissions rises already occurred 3 6 Research need TBC Action to be developed in Year 5 (2026) linked with Good Food Nation work PKC2 Risk Precipitation Risks to active travel from flooding Active travel routes such as cycle paths can be damaged or made impassable due to flooding. The overall impact is assessed as medium as this may impact many people in a low- level way. There will also be a financial cost associated with repair and maintenance. 2 Currently happening, expected to increase through the century Flooding already affects Perth and Kinross and is expected to become more frequent/severe. 3 6 Monitor risk Duplicate with P&K risks PKC5 Risk Precipitation Risks to Perth and Kinross own estates from flooding Flooding can damage council estates and pose a risk to users, as well as require costly repair and maintenance. The risk is assessed as medium as the financial cost may be in the £1-10m range for costly repairs and it may affect a large number of people. 2 Currently happening, expected to increase through the century Flooding already affects Perth and Kinross and is expected to become more frequent/severe. 3 6 Monitor risk Flooding (Rick Haynes) & Property (Grant Key) R21, R23, R24 PKC7 Risk Precipitation Risks to council maintained community spaces from flooding Flooding can damage community spaces and pose a risk to users, as well as require costly repair and maintenance. The risk is assessed as medium as the financial cost may be in the £1-10m range for costly repairs and it may affect a large number of people. 2 Currently happening, expected to increase through the century Flooding already affects Perth and Kinross and is expected to become more frequent/severe. 3 6 Monitor risk Flooding (Rick Haynes) & Property (Grant Key) R21, R23, R24 Will be partially addressed by delivery of wider P&K flooding projects PKC8 Risk Precipitation Risks to leisure facilities from flooding Leisure facilities such as swimming pools may be closed due to flooding damage either directly to the facility or due to infrastructure they depend on such as water and drainage. The risk is assessed as medium as the financial cost may be in the £1-10m range for costly repairs and it may affect a large number of people. 2 Currently happening, expected to increase through the century Flooding already affects Perth and Kinross and is expected to become more frequent/severe. 3 6 Monitor risk Flooding (Rick Haynes) & Greenspace (Andy Clegg) Duplicate with P&K I15 PKC Operational Risks
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PKC1 Risk All Risks to council's key supply chains Climate change causing both extreme events or long term change can have significant impacts on goods which the council relies upon from around the world. The impact is highly dependent on where the good come from, what the supply is like from elsewhere in the world and weather there is an alternative option - there is much uncertainty in the scoring and it would very depending on the good , scarcity and importance to the council - due to this difficulty it is score medium. More research is needed. 2 now (if a specific disaster struck) to late century Supply chain risks are likely to occur due to projected climate change and globalisation - however, likelihood needs to be scored on individual goods taking into account the country of origin to have good levels of confidence. Which is beyond the scope of this work. 2 4 research need Procurement Duplicate with P&K I15 PKC10 Risk Temperature Risks to council maintained community spaces from higher temperatures Higher temperatures may cause problems for vegetation, new species may be needed, more water needed for maintenance. Requiring both more human resource and financial resources. Spaces might need to be more shaded for warmer summer, risk not being used or needing financial capital to redesign some spaces. Longer term council may need to invest in adapting outdoor spaces i.e. putting shading or additional vegetation. Maintenance schedules may need to change, e.g. more watering of plants etc. This cost is likely to be spread over several years if not decades and so would not exceed 10million in a short space of time - but the council owned green space is large in volume, therefore this risk is given an impact score of medium. 2 mid to late century Heatwaves later in the century could cause problems though more likely under a higher RCP. If combined with very dry summers drought may occur cause maintenance problems for vegetation in these areas. 1 2 Monitor risk Greenspace (Andy Clegg) Consideration of changing climate starting to be embedded in species selection and landscape design PKC12 Risk Temperature Risks to Perth and Kinross own estates from higher temperatures High temperatures causing's overheating, closures of buildings and malfunction of buildings or installation of air conditioning at high economic and energy costs. If multiple buildings need to be closed this could cause significant impacts for Perth and Kinross, however, if current patterns of working at home are maintained this impact might be reduced somewhat. Due to the fact many people work at home so the impact is less felt then in the past, yet some key equipment such as ICT systems would be at risk. Moreover, it is unlikely air conditioning would be installed in a large-scale so financial cost would be reduced. if overheating this risk is medium. 2 late century Higher temperatures will occur, particularly toward the end o the century under a higher RCP, though these will still be below the UK average. This is highly dependent on the type of building, the buildings characteristics, its use and its ventilation 1 2 Monitor risk Property (Grant Key)
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PKC13 Risk Temperature Risks to housing and housing provision from high temperatures The current and future social housing stock may be at risk of overheating due to not being designed for future summer extreme temperatures in the UK. The impact of this can cause discomfort for residents and increase there exposure to heat. This is particularly problematic for social housing residents are there more likely to be vulnerable to heat. Social housing provider may need to install fans or AC in some extreme cases increasing costs, this also puts a summer financial strain on residents who may already be in energy poverty. The current and future social housing stock may be at risk of overheating due to not being designed for future summer extreme temperatures in the UK. The impact of this can cause discomfort for residents and increase there exposure to heat. This is particularly problematic for social housing residents are there more likely to be vulnerable to heat. Social housing provider may need to install fans or AC in some extreme cases increasing costs, this also puts a summer financial strain on residents 2 late century Higher temperatures will occur, particularly toward the end o the century under a higher RCP, though these will still be below the UK average. This is highly dependent on the type of home, its built characteristics, its use and its ventilation and the residents and their vulnerability. 1 2 Monitor risk Housing (Nicola Lennon) PKC14 Risk Temperature Risks to road infrastructure from higher temperatures Road melt - Asphalt road surfaces begin to melt and suffer from rutting and melting at surface temperatures above 50 °C. The relationship between road temperature and air temperature is complex, and depends on incoming radiation, windspeed and surface properties, but it is not uncommon for road surface temperatures to exceed 50 °C when air temperature exceeds 25 °C (Chapman, 2015). Damage to roads during extreme heat would be costly however the cost per heatwave is unlikely to be above 10millsion - so this risk is scored as Medium. 2 late century Temperatures likely to melt roads are unlikely to regularly occur until later in the century. 1 2 Moniter risk Duplication with I7 PKC15 Risk Temperature Risks for Perth and Kinross staff from higher temperatures Indoor office staff: Risk of overheating in buildings, staff being uncomfortable and less productive on offices where there is no air conditioning installed. Or higher energy costs during the summer months for the council. Working from home: Risks to health of staff who are working in homes that might overheat during the summer months. Risks to their health and wellbeing and productivity at work. Staff working outdoors: Those who regularly work outdoors will be at increased risk of heat stroke or other heat related illness during the summer especially during extreme heat events. This might include, people working in waste collection The impact is likely to be highest on those most vulnerable and exposed - over age of 65 and outdoor workers, as this is not likely to make up a significant percentage of PKC's workforce this impact is scored as low. 1 late century Higher temperatures will occur, particularly toward the end o the century under a higher RCP, though these will still be below the UK average. This is highly dependent on individuals roles and vulnerability to heat. 1 1 Monitor risk Property (Grant Key)
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Risk code Sector Risk or opportunity Climate factor Opportunity Opportunity description Potential Benefit High level next steps HCBO1 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Opportunity Temperature OpportuniƟes from winter household energy demand Warmer winters: Excess winter mortality is prominent in the UK, model's estimate that milder winters will decrease this health burden, thought will remain significant. Many people in Perth and Kinross area live in fuel poverty which exacerbates this problem, and this is currently a significancy health risk for the whole of the UK. Medium More research could be undertaken to calculate the potential savings for this HCBO2 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Opportunity Temperature Opportunities for health and wellbeing from warmer winters Warmer winters: There are potential physical and mental health benefits of being able to spend more time and exercise outdoors. There is an established correlation between improved mental health and increased access to nature, blue and green spaces. Moreover, increased activity levels have a number of physical benefits. Finally, increased time outdoors may increase Vitamin D exposure which is important for bone health and the immune system. There is little evidence for Scotland specifically. Increased active travel in the winter due to warmer weather - this may be hindered by wetter weather however. Low Continue to promote Perth and Kinross on the go and other outdoor activity to increase levels of activity. HCBO3 Health, Communities and the Built Environment Opportunity Temperature OpportuniƟes for health and wellbeing from warmer summers Warmer summers: There are potential physical and mental health benefits of being able to spend more time and exercise outdoors. There is an established correlation between improved mental health and increased access to nature, blue and green spaces. Moreover, increased activity levels have a number of physical benefits. Finally, increased time outdoors may increase Vitamin D exposure which is important for bone health and the immune system. There is little evidence for Scotland specifically. Low Continue to promote Perth and Kinross on the go and other outdoor activity to increase levels of activity. IO1 Infrastructure Opportunity Precipitation Increased rain, increased opportunity to harness water flow for energy An increase in rain in certain periods e.g., winter, may lead to higher river flows and loch levels, which could provide an opportunity for energy generators such as hydroelectric installations. Low Data would have to be analysed to see if and how much of an actual benefit this could be. This benefit may be off set by less rainfall in the summer. NO1 Nature Opportunity All Opportunities from new species in terrestrial habitats colonisations. Climate change such as warmer temperature or changed to precipitation meaning new species which could be beneficial for biodiversity are able to establish themselves in new areas. Low Collaborate with organisations researching these impacts. E.g. James Hutton Institute. NO2 Nature Opportunity All Opportunities to freshwater species and habitats from new species colonisations Opportunities to freshwater habitats from new species colonisations can include enhanced biodiversity, which supports a range of ecosystem services, particularly cultural ones such as recreation (including angling, and enjoyment of wildlife). However, the opportunities from climate change are assessed as low for Scotland, both currently and in the future, as there is low evidence to date, and climate change is likely to a play smaller part in the benefits of colonisation compared to other factors. Many of the opportunities for freshwater species and habitats do not come directly from climate change, but from human activities and trade, thus they have a low magnitude score and sustaining current action is recommended. Low Collaborate with organisations undertaking research in this field to better understand the opportunities. PK O1 Perth and Kinross Council Opportunity Temperature Opportunities for road maintenance from warmer winters Less need for gritting during freezing weather saving on council resources. Due to rise in both the average and minimum winter temperatures expected under all scenarios, some reduction in gridding regimes required is likely to occur. Medium/ Low More research could be undertaken to calculate the potential savings for this PKC02 Perth and Kinross Council Opportunity Temperature Opportunities for active travel from increased temperature Warmer drier summers may encourage more active travel. Increase in active travel will help Perth and Kinross lower GHG emissions Medium/ Low Continue to promote Perth and Kinross on the go to increase levels of activity. Climate Opportunity Register
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PKCO3 Perth and Kinross Council Opportunity Temperature and precipitation Opportunities for low carbon energy Warmer temperature and increased winter precipitation may open opportunities for renewable energy to help reduce the councils carbon emissions and met their targets. Medium/ Low Data would have to be analysed to see if and how much of an actual benefit this could be. This benefit may be off set by less rainfall in the summer. BI1 Business and industry Opportunity Multiple climate variables Opportunities for business from changes in demand for goods and services As the climate changes, there is likely to be a change in goods and services required. An example of this is the market for air conditioning, which is expected to grow in the UK as summers are warmer. Another example may be the demand for solar panels. Finally, a change in climate may change the tourist market, if certain destinations become more attractive at certain times. These areas could provide opportunities for businesses in Perth and Kinross. Hotter drier summers will decrease the summer midge. IMPACT: Increasing hot temperatures will impact the demand for certain goods and services, therefore negatively affecting these businesses. OPPORTUNITIES: Whilst some products and services will be negatively affected, there is also great opportunity for many businesses to gain an advantage if they can anticipate the changing markets. Sectors relevant to PKC such as agriculture, forestry, tourism and constructions have particularly good opportunities for growth. Medium/Low Work with the business community to better understand how this coudl be an opportunity of the region
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Score Impact Likelihood 1 Low impact risks would include: Financial impact •Cost esƟmated at under 1 million. Number of people impacted. •Less than 10% of the populaƟon of PKC impacted. Health impact •Low impact would mean some inconvenience to people. Some minor health impacts for a smaller proportion of the population. Environmental impact Only small environmental impact – no significant damage, or small geographic area impacted Low likelihood refers to a situation where the risk is unlikely to occur either due to specific characteristics of Perth and Kinross Or the change in climate required to make the risk occur is an extreme case and only viable later in the century. 2 Medium impact risks would include: Financial impact •Cost esƟmated of over 1 million and up to 10million. Number of people impacted. •More than 10% and less than 50% of the populaƟon of PKC impacted. Health impact •Medium impact would mean significant inconvenience to people. Some major health impacts for a smaller proportion of the population. Or minor health impacts to a large proportion of the population. Environmental impact Only small environmental impact – some environmental damage, but a medium or multiple geographic area impacted Medium likelihood, climate change required for the risk is likely to occur below RCP 8.5. There are some vulnerabilities inherent in Perth and Kinross that makes the risk more likely to happen
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3 High impact risks would include: Financial impact •Cost esƟmated of over 10million. Number of people impacted. •50% or more of the populaƟon of PKC impacted. Health impact •High impact would mean significant inconvenience to many people. Major health impacts to a significant amount of those impacted and or some mortality. Environmental impact largescale environmental impact – significant environmental damage, Only a small amount of climate change is needed for the risk to occur. Or risk is already happening and will be enhanced by climate change. Specific characteristics make Perth and Kinross particularly prone to the risk occurring. Combine d Score Impact score x likelihood score Final score - categoris ation 1-2 = low 3-5 medium 5+ high 1 2 3 1 2 3
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Column Description Risk code Number assigned and used in the technical report for easy cross-reference Sector Which sector the risk belongs too, sectors correspond to chapters in the technical report. Risk or opportunity Denotes which are risks and which are opportunities for easy filtering Climate factor Climate change factors/hazards which drive the risk Risk/Opportunity Name Risk/Opportunity description Short description Impact rationale A short justification around why the impact score was given Impact Score (1 Low - 3 High) impact score Timescale A rough indication of when in the century the risk is likely to begin to occur. Likelihood Rationale A short justification around why the Likelihood score was given Likelihood Score (1 Low - 3 High) Likelihood score Combined Score Impact x Likelihood score = overall score Action category each risk has been categorised to show how urgent the action is needed. Review cycle A rough guide to when these risks need reviewing High level next step suggestions High level suggestions on what actions could take place.