Strategic Performance Framework - the North Lanarkshire Context
North Lanarkshire Council · 16 March 2023
Back to Policy and Strategy Committee — 16 March 2023 and its agenda
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North Lanarkshire Council Report Policy and Strategy Committee Does this report require to be approved? ☐ Yes ☒ No Ref KH/SL Date 16/03/23 Strategic Performance Framework - the North Lanarkshire context From Katrina Hassell, Chief Officer (Business and Digital) E-mail HassellK@northlan.gov.uk Telephone 07903 096 121 Executive Summary The Plan for North Lanarkshire is supported by a suite of high level Health Check Performance Indicators that collectively provide the context for North Lanarkshire as a place. By providing the local demographic, social, and economic profile these indicators were key to shaping the long-term vision set out in The Plan for North Lanarkshire when it was approved in 2019, and they have continued to provide a robust, consistent, and independent way of assessing progress since then. The suite of indicators has also played an important role in terms in informing the council’s strategic planning process through the Programme of Work. The latest evidence base in this respect shows positive trends in a number of key economic indicators - gross weekly pay is now higher than the national average for the first time ever (showing a 10% - £63.90 per week - increase for North Lanarkshire’s residents). The number of people claiming employment related benefits has decreased by almost 48% since 2020 and is now lower than pre-pandemic levels, and North Lanarkshire’s economy continues to show positive growth against a negative growth position nationally. Significant improvements are also evidenced in educational attainment for all pupils gaining 5+ awards at level 6, as well as for pupils living in the 20% most deprived areas. Leavers achieving a positive post school destination is now at its highest level, with a drop of around 100 leavers not entering a positive destination over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire. Over the same period of time, overall school exclusion rates have evidenced a 56% decrease, with exclusion rates for looked after children decreasing by almost 70%. While these trends are particularly significant given the extent of the impact of the pandemic that is evident in certain measures, it also highlights that challenges remain thus further supporting the compelling need to reframe the Programme of Work as set out in the accompanying reports on the agenda today. This is considered essential to ensure a heightened and more strategic focus on not only sustaining the economic and community aspects that will enable local people and communities (and the place that is North Lanarkshire) to thrive, but also on ensuring a more targeted approach to improving social conditions and outcomes.
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1. Background 1.1 Approved in February 2019, The Plan for North Lanarkshire sets the strategic direction not just for the council and partners, but for North Lanarkshire as a place. It outlines the shared ambition to make North Lanarkshire the place to Live, Learn, Work, Invest, and Visit. 1.2 The long-term vision in The Plan for North Lanarkshire provides a very clear focus and compelling narrative in terms of what the council is working towards. This vision of inclusive growth and prosperity for all aims to bring equal benefits to all North Lanarkshire’s communities and ensure a fairer distribution of wealth. 1.3 The Plan for North Lanarkshire is supported by a suite of 28 Health Check Indicators from the Strategic Performance Framework that collectively provide the North Lanarkshire context. This suite of measures: • Aims to provide a high-level impact assessment of the work of the council and partners on North Lanarkshire’s economy, its people, and its communities. • Comprises a small number of wider landscape measures which focus, where possible, on outcomes rather than outputs. • Is sourced externally to provide external verification. • Are available nationally to enable a comparison of performance and progress. 1.4 It should be noted that it can take time to see the impact that outcome focused planning has for people and communities due to, for example, the long-term nature of some investments, time-lags from investment to seeing results, and the need to make assumptions of impact (comparing, for example, scenarios that consider impact if there had been no portfolio of council activity delivered at all). It is also not easy to measure outcomes or to separate out specific impacts on outcomes as there are many factors impacting on local people and communities that are outside the direct control of the council. 1.5 Nevertheless, consistently maintaining, reviewing, and reporting the results from the suite of 28 Health Check Indicators provides a strong and independent evidence base that enables a regular assessment of progress of the council’s portfolio of programmes, projects, plans, and activities (including the Programme of Work) in delivering the long- term vision that is set out in The Plan for North Lanarkshire. Maintaining such a consistent approach to measuring progress in this way also avoids the temptation to Recommendations It is recommended that the Policy and Strategy Committee: (1) Are aware of the key role that the Health Check Indicators play in providing the evidence base from which progress in delivering on The Plan for North Lanarkshire can be regularly assessed, and (2) Take cognisance of the latest results set out in Appendix 1 and the successes and challenges summarised in paragraphs 2.3 and 2.5 respectively. The Plan for North Lanarkshire Priority All priorities Ambition statement All ambition statements
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resort to short-term measures that don’t help sustain the long-term focus required to achieve the long-term vision. 1.6 In previous years, updated results for the suite of 28 Health Check Indicators were included in the annual Programme of Work report to the Policy and Strategy Committee. To better show the results of these indicators within the most appropriate context (for example trends over time that cover before, during, and in the aftermath of the pandemic and supplementary measures, commentary, and analysis for added interpretation) a separate report is now presented herewith. 2. Latest results 2.1 The suite of 28 Health Check Indicators has been updated with the most recent data published and available; this data and the latest commentary on the North Lanarkshire context is set out in Appendix 1. Note, to aid interpretation and ensure the results are reviewed within the appropriate context, the indicators depicted in Appendix 1 are not set out sequentially, rather they are set out in clusters where there are clear linkages to consider. 2.2 Previous annual updates have only included a table of results that had been achieved from the baseline set when The Plan for North Lanarkshire was approved. The latest results for the 28 Health Check Indicators set out in Appendix 1: • Are presented in a different way this year in order to better show the North Lanarkshire position within the relevant context. • Include graphs displaying a longer-term time series in order to show, for example, trends over time that cover before, during, and in the aftermath of the pandemic. Note, some national data sources recalibrate their time series at every publication, where this is the case the most up to date data is reflected in the results presented in the Appendix. • Incorporate - where appropriate for added interpretation - supplementary measures, commentary, and analysis. • Reflect the baseline for The Plan for North Lanarkshire in the North Lanarkshire commentary. This baseline was established using the most up to date data available at the time The Plan for North Lanarkshire was approved and monitoring began. This allows for improvements to be identified over the lifespan of the council’s corporate strategy. 2.3 The latest results for some indicators still pre-date the pandemic, for other indicators which are measured more frequently the results are starting to show a number of significant and positive trends that are encouraging. These successes are even more noteworthy given the challenging backdrop they have been achieved against. • The gross weekly pay for local residents is now higher than the national average for the first time ever, as shown in Figure 17a in Appendix 1. This is an increase of 10% (£63.90 per week) for North Lanarkshire residents from the previous year’s results, a trend which exceeds the 3% change (an average of £20.40 per week) nationally over the same time. • The number of people claiming employment related benefits has decreased by almost 48% from 14,195 as at December 2020 to 7,420 as at December 2022. As shown in Figure 20a in Appendix 1, the claimant count in this respect is now lower than pre-pandemic levels. • Prior to the pandemic, North Lanarkshire had one of the strongest and fastest growing economies in Scotland, with significant growth over the last 10 years and strong business growth with an increase in the number of businesses per head of
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population and jobs safeguarded through support to businesses. Recent figures in Figure 16a in Appendix 1 show the local economy continues to grow, and Figure 16b shows that this growth rate reflects a positive position in North Lanarkshire compared to a negative growth position nationally. • Educational attainment rates for all pupils gaining 5+ awards at level 6, and for pupils living in the 20% most deprived areas, have seen a steady year on year improvement - as shown in Figures 11a and 12a in Appendix 1. • Improvements can also be evidenced in the number of leavers achieving a positive post school destination (see Figures 13a and 13b in Appendix 1), with North Lanarkshire achieving its highest level ever of 94.5%. This reflects a drop in pupils not entering a positive destination from 8.2% to 5.5% - around 100 leavers - over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire. • Overall school exclusion rates and exclusion rates for looked after children both show significant improvement over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire, with overall exclusion rates dropping by 56% and rates for looked after children dropping by almost 70% (as shown in figures 14a and 15a in Appendix 1). • Net migration has picked up again after a small dip in the trend and projections. Estimates predict that North Lanarkshire’s population will grow and remain favourable up to 2028 (see indicators C01, C02, and C03 in Appendix 1). 2.4 Previous annual reports (in March 2022 and 2021) in respect of the Health Check Indicators have reflected on the impact of the pandemic, and the resultant social and economic effects which were considered to have affected vulnerable people and communities more intensely. As a result it was considered there was a danger that already unacceptably high levels of deprivation and child poverty would become further exacerbated. The update in March 2022 also reflected on the very real challenges facing the future sustainability of the local economy. 2.5 As such, while the latest results show significant positive trends in a number of key indicators and there are signs of potential recovery from the pandemic with an encouraging move in the right direction, challenges do remain: • While improvements are noted in a reduction in the proportion of children in poverty over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire (Figure 22a in Appendix 1 shows the decrease from 25.2% to 23.2%), this remains a concern as almost one in four children in North Lanarkshire are living in poverty. This is higher than the national average of just over one in five children. Of particular concern is the disparity across North Lanarkshire’s communities. • Figures 18a and 18b in Appendix 1 show that the proportion of the working age population who are economically active had shown signs of improvement in the aftermath of the pandemic, but this has stalled and will continue to be monitored closely for signs of stability. Other factors will require further investigation in terms of employability, as 69,100 people are currently recorded as being economically inactive, with 41% of these recorded as long term-sick and 84% recorded as not wanting a job. • While Figure 21a in Appendix 1 clearly shows an ongoing downward trend in terms of a reduction in the number of the working age population with no qualifications, there still remains 12.8% of North Lanarkshire’s working age population (around 27,600 people) in a situation that restricts their ability to access developing employment opportunities. • Figures 11a and 12a in Appendix 1 show ongoing improvement in terms of educational attainment for all pupils gaining 5+ awards at level, as well as pupils living in the 20% most deprived areas. However the gap in attainment in this respect is not showing any significant signs of narrowing.
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Next steps 2.6 By collectively providing the local demographic, social, and economic profile, the suite of Health Check Indicators were key to shaping the long-term vision set out in The Plan for North Lanarkshire when it was established in 2019. As such, these indicators will continue to be regularly monitored, assessed, and reported in order to provide a consistent mechanism to assess progress through incremental short-term changes and impacts, while maintaining a focus on improving outcomes in the long-term. 2.7 Through the Programme of Work, the council has ensured delivery of the long-term vision is informed by a dynamic strategic planning process. This process has stabilised what can be stabilised, while allowing for appropriate flexibility in terms of the programmes, projects, plans, and activities required in order to manage complexity, take advantage of important opportunities, and advance resilience and sustainability in the face of a fast changing national policy context and uncertain local government future. The suite of Health Check Indicators will therefore continue to play an important role in informing the council’s strategic planning process including, for example, potentially informing the prioritisation framework around forthcoming hub locations to challenge the stubborn scale of deprivation in areas that are hardest to reach and future policy developments targeted at tackling economically inactive trends and improving social conditions. 3. Measures of success 3.1 Measures of success will be evidenced through progress being made to deliver the Programme of Work and ensure the council’s portfolio of programmes, projects, plans, and activities impact positively on the North Lanarkshire context assessed through the Health Check Indicators. 4. Supporting documentation 4.1 Appendix 1: Latest results and the North Lanarkshire commentary. Katrina Hassell Chief Officer (Business and Digital) 5. Impacts 5.1 Public Sector Equality Duty and Fairer Scotland Duty Does the report contain information that has an impact as a result of the Public Sector Equality Duty and/or Fairer Scotland Duty? Yes ☐ No ☒ If Yes, please provide a brief summary of the impact? If Yes, has an assessment been carried out and published on the council’s website? https://www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/your-community/equalities/equality- and-fairer-scotland-duty-impact-assessments Yes ☐ No ☐ 5.2 Financial impact
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Does the report contain any financial impacts? Yes ☐ No ☒ If Yes, have all relevant financial impacts have been discussed and agreed with Finance? Yes ☐ No ☐ If Yes, please provide a brief summary of the impact? 5.3 HR policy impact Does the report contain any HR policy or procedure impacts? Yes ☐ No ☒ If Yes, have all relevant HR impacts have been discussed and agreed with People Resources? Yes ☐ No ☐ If Yes, please provide a brief summary of the impact? 5.4 Legal impact Does the report contain any legal impacts (such as general legal matters, statutory considerations (including employment law considerations), or new legislation)? Yes ☐ No ☒ If Yes, have all relevant legal impacts have been discussed and agreed with Legal and Democratic? Yes ☐ No ☐ If Yes, please provide a brief summary of the impact? 5.5 Data protection impact Does the report / project / practice contain or involve the processing of personal data? Yes ☐ No ☒ If Yes, is the processing of this personal data likely to result in a high risk to the data subject? Yes ☐ No ☐ If Yes, has a Data Protection Impact Assessment (DPIA) been carried out and e- mailed to dataprotection@northlan.gov.uk Yes ☐ No ☐ 5.6 Technology / Digital impact Does the report contain information that has an impact on either technology, digital transformation, service redesign / business change processes, data management, or connectivity / broadband / Wi-Fi? Yes ☐ No ☒ If Yes, please provide a brief summary of the impact? Where the impact identifies a requirement for significant technology change, has an assessment been carried out (or is scheduled to be carried out) by the Enterprise Architecture Governance Group (EAGG)? Yes ☐ No ☐ 5.7 Environmental / Carbon impact Does the report / project / practice contain information that has an impact on any environmental or carbon matters? Yes ☐ No ☒ If Yes, please provide a brief summary of the impact? 5.8 Communications impact Does the report contain any information that has an impact on the council’s
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communications activities? Yes ☐ No ☒ If Yes, please provide a brief summary of the impact? 5.9 Risk impact Is there a risk impact? Yes ☒ No ☐ If Yes, please provide a brief summary of the key risks and potential impacts, highlighting where the risk(s) are assessed and recorded (e.g. Corporate or Service or Project Risk Registers), and how they are managed? Ensuring an evidence based approach to strategic planning and performance monitoring and reporting contributes to the mitigation of the risks on the Corporate Risk Register for managing strategic change and governance, leadership, and decision making. 5.10 Armed Forces Covenant Duty Does the report require to take due regard of the Armed Forces Covenant Duty (i.e. does it relate to healthcare, housing, or education services for in-Service or ex- Service personnel, or their families, or widow(er)s)? Yes ☐ No ☒ If Yes, please provide a brief summary of the provision which has been made to ensure there has been appropriate consideration of the particular needs of the Armed Forces community to make sure that they do not face disadvantage compared to other citizens in the provision of public services.
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C17: Gross weekly pay - residents (full-time employees) Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Increased the earnings of people who live in North Lanarkshire What success looks like: Earnings for people who live in NL continue to grow on a par with national levels The North Lanarkshire commentary: • The gross weekly pay for NLs residents is now higher than the average earnings for both Scotland and GB for the first time ever. • In 2022, gross weekly earnings for NLs residents is now £656.60 (based on all full-time workers); an increase of £63.90 from 2021 and £16.30 above the national average. • The 2022 figures represent over a 10% increase in gross weekly earnings in NL from 2021, compared to a 3% increase nationally (i.e. an average increase of £20.40 per week nationally). • Traditionally, while wages have risen steadily for the people who live in NL, this had previously been at a lesser rate than average earnings for Scotland and GB. • The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline set in 2018 saw gross weekly earnings to be £545.70; at the time this was £17 lower than the national average of £562.70. • Prior to this the widest gap in average earnings for NL compared to Scotland was £42 in 2009 before the gap reduced to its narrowest point in 2019 (£11.10) just before the pandemic. • For added context, the average hourly pay of full-time workers in NL (excluding overtime) increased 9% from £15.24 per hour in 2021 to £16.67 per hour in 2022. This compares to a 4.5% increase nationally from £15.88 to £16.59 per hour over the same period. This does however show that a disparity remains in the hourly rate between males and females in NL. C18: % of all people economically active (aged 16-64 years) Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Increased the number of our residents in employment What success looks like: More people aged 16 to 64 living in NL are economically active and contributing to the local / national economy C20: % of working age people (aged 16-64 years) claiming one or more of the key benefits Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Reduced the number of residents reliant on employment related benefits What success looks like: All of NLs residents capable of working are sustaining employment The North Lanarkshire commentary: • In the years prior to The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline of 3.5% in December 2018, claimant count for NL had remained relatively low, increasing only to 3.8% in March 2020. April 2020 figures clearly showed the immediate impact of the pandemic with a rise to 6.1% in NL compared to 5.4% nationally; figures continued to increase to a high of 7.2% in August 2020 which was in line with trends nationally. • After August 2020 figures started on a relatively downward trend, with the latest figures as at December 2022 show another small, but continual, decrease - with 3.4% of the working age people now claiming one or more of the key benefits in NL, compared to a national average of 3.2%. The latest NL figure is now lower than The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline. • The latest figure equates to 7,420 people claiming work related benefits in NL as at December 2022 - a 6% decrease from the December 2019 claimant count of 7,890 (pre-pandemic levels). The latest figure also represents a 47.7% decrease from December 2020 (14,195), and a 22.5% decrease from December 2021 (9,580) - Figure 20b above reflects the trends in this respect. • The trends in this indicator should be considered alongside indicator C18 for the % of all people economically active. The North Lanarkshire commentary: • Figure 18a above shows not only a period of relative stability over the 10 years up to 2020, but also that the % of people economically active in NL exceeded the national average at times. This period included the 2018 baseline for The Plan for North Lanarkshire, and shows that NL figures continued to follow the national average throughout 2019 and early into 2020 (with a high of 78.2% in NL, compared to 77.9% nationally). • This indicator started to show a decline as at June 2020 (76.5%) which continued to its lowest point in December 2021 (71.1%). The timing of this suggesting the figures were showing the impact of the pandemic. • In 2021 small gains were recorded with an increase to 71.4% as at September 2021 and 71.8% as at March 2022. The fact these gains have not continued to date suggests an unstable position remains in NL following the pandemic (compared to the picture nationally). The latest result shows 68.9% as at September 2022 figures which equates to 153,600 residents economically active in NL (Figure 18b above); this is a decrease from the pre-pandemic level in September 2019 of 173,300. • There are other factors which will require to be investigated further in terms of economic inactivity; of the 69,100 people currently recorded as economically inactive, the latest figures show that 19% are students, 14% are looking after home/family, 10% are retired, 41% are long-term sick, with the remainder classed as other. Of those recorded as economically inactive, 84% don’t want a job. • The trends in this indicator should be considered alongside indicator C20 for the % of working age people claiming benefits.
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C16: Growth in Gross Value Added per head (income approach) Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Increased our economic output What success looks like: Continued economic growth in this area The North Lanarkshire commentary: • The latest data published shows that GVA growth remains positive suggesting NLs economy continues to grow (as shown in Figure 16a above). • Looking at the baseline for The Plan for North Lanarkshire, GVA per head of population at current prices shows that NL has seen a rise from £20,928 in 2016 to £23,674 in 2020. • Figure 16b above displays the % change in economic growth from one year to the next - the historical trends for the last 10 years not only show a positive trend (which has continued over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire), it also shows economic growth in NL has steadily remained above the national average. • The latest data shows a 0.3% increase in NL from 2019 to 2020 which, although smaller than previous years, is a more positive position compared to nationally where the % change shows a decline of 2.6% over the same period. • The time lag in the availability of these results means that the period covered by this data does not yet reflect the impact of the pandemic and, as such, will continue to be monitored. C19: % of the VAT / PAYE registered businesses that survive for at least three years Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Increased and sustained our new businesses What success looks like: More locally generated and incoming businesses being created, surviving, and sustaining in the longer-term The North Lanarkshire commentary: • The latest business survival rates in NL show an increase - from 50.9% in 2020 to 58.1% in 2021 - these results not only follow the same trend as the national average, they show an increase at a greater rate (Figure 19a above). • This represents an encouraging picture given the results are still within the period of the pandemic. It also shows that rates in NL in 2021 have returned to a similar level as the baseline for The Plan for North Lanarkshire (58.7% in 2016). • A fuller picture in relation to business survival rates requires due consideration of self-employment rates. Figure 19b above shows a decrease in the % of NL residents in self-employment from a high of 7.9% as at December 2018 to 5.4% as at December 2019, 4.9% as at December 2020, and 3.7% as at December 2021. • This decrease mirrors (albeit to a greater extent) the national trend where rates decreased from 8.4% to 7.6% over the same period. • Figures for 2022 show signs of improvement in NL following the pandemic, with 5.7% of NL residents in self-employment as at March 2022 and 4.6% as at June 2022 - improvement that mirrors the national average (albeit to a greater extent), but the position remains unstable. • The number of people self-employed in NL has fluctuated over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire and also the pandemic with 18,100 as at December 2018, 12,000 as at December 2019, 10,700 as at December 2020, 9,800 as at December 2021, 13,900 as at March 2022 and 11,500 as at June 2022 (Figure 19c shows the trends in this respect).
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C27: Total employment in sustainable tourism as % of growth sector employment The North Lanarkshire commentary: • Sustainable tourism is one of 6 sectors used to assess growth in employment. Figure 27a above reflects the number of registered businesses in NL in each of the 6 growth sectors. • As shown in Figure 27b above, employment in sustainable tourism sector in NL as a proportion of employment in all 6 sectors combined has remained at a relatively steady level over the years and the trend has followed the national average. • The latest figures for the growth rate in NL (28.6% in 2021) show an increase from The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline (25.2% in 2017). • The total employment rate over all sectors has dropped over the period from 2018 to 2021, which impacts on the use of percentages in this indicator. • The impact of the pandemic is not yet reflected in these results. The North Lanarkshire commentary: • GVA per head in sustainable tourism has fluctuated in NL over the period of the reported data (as depicted in Figure 28a above and also reflected in Figure 28b above showing the year to year change). • NLs trend has followed the national trend, albeit with a greater degree of fluctuation. The impact of the pandemic is not yet reflected in these results. C28: Gross Value Added per head in sustainable tourism (employment) Measuring these 2 indicators will tell us if we have: Increased benefit from tourism in our area What success looks like: Continued economic growth in this sector
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C21: % of the working age population (aged 16-64 years) that have no formal qualifications Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Increased the qualification levels of our workforce What success looks like: An increase in formal qualifications are important for the working age population in order to increase skills and flexibility within the workforce The North Lanarkshire commentary: • Figure 21a above shows a general downward trend over the years that shows ongoing improvement in terms of the % of NLs working age population that have no formal qualifications. • The parameters for measuring this indicator appear to have changed for the 2021 data; this is being investigated further. In the meantime, the 2020 figures have been used to set the narrative. • 2020 figures showed that 12.8% of NLs working age population have no formal qualifications (around 27,600 people). This restricts their ability to access current or developing employment opportunities. • The 2020 figures continue to reflect a gradual improvement from The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline (13.6% in 2017, which equated to 29,600 people) . This improvement represents a decrease of 2,000 people over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire. • NL figures have also fallen at a faster rate than the Scotland average, dropping by 10.8 percentage points over the last 16 years, compared to a drop of 7.7 percentage points in Scotland. C11: % of pupils gaining 5+ awards at level 6 The North Lanarkshire commentary: • Educational attainment at this level in NL continues to improve in line with national trends, and remains higher than the family group of similar councils. Latest figures (37% in 2021/22) show an improvement from The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline (32% in 2017/18). • For 2020/21 the absence of external assessment information - and the national direction to award estimated grades - led to a different pattern (nationally) of attainment than previous years. In NL this pattern is not significantly different; however as the attainment figures for 2019/20 and 2020/21 are derived from different approaches they are not directly comparable. • While SCQF Level 6 provides a measure for those achieving at the highest level in school, it does not provide a picture of those who have chosen other pathways. For example for 46% of leavers, SCQF Level 6 was the highest qualification achieved, 36.5% of leavers achieved a level lower than this, and 3.5% of pupils did not gain any qualifications at SCQF level 3 or above by the time they left school. Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Improved the outcomes for our young people What success looks like: Every child leaving a NL school achieves a basic qualification as a minimum, or qualifications that support their chosen pathway C12: % of pupils living in 20% most deprived areas (as defined by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation) gaining 5+ awards at Level 6 Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Improved the outcomes for the young people living in our most disadvantaged communities What success looks like: Having no gap in attainment levels across all of NL The North Lanarkshire commentary: • Educational attainment for pupils living in the 20% most deprived areas continues to improve from The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline (18% in 2017/18 to 22% in 2021/22) and is higher than the national average. • There is however still a marked difference in attainment at this level for those pupils living in the 20% most deprived areas, compared to the overall student population (indicator C11). • Between the overall figure (C11), and that for those living in the most deprived areas (C12), there was a 15 percentage points difference in attainment at SCQF level 6 or above in 2020/21 (compared to a 18 percentage point gap nationally). • For 2020/21 the absence of external assessment information - and the national direction to award estimated grades - led to a different pattern (nationally) of attainment than previous years. In NL this pattern is not significantly different; however as the attainment figures for 2019/20 and 2020/21 are derived from different approaches they are not directly comparable.
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C13: % of pupils entering positive destinations The North Lanarkshire commentary: • The proportion of pupils leaving school in NL and entering a positive destination has increased to its highest level of 94.5% in 2020/21. • This improves on The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline of 91.8% (in 2016/17). • The latest result equates to 3,493 leavers achieving a positive destination out of 3,696; 203 leavers did not achieve a positive destination (as reflected in Figure 13b above). • Performance in NL has mirrored the national average in recent years and the latest results show NL is now just 1 percentage point below the national average (95.5%). • The proportion of those pupils not entering a positive destination has dropped by around 100 leavers (from 8.2% to 5.5%) over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire. • Of the 5.5% who did not enter a positive destination in 2020/21, half are unemployed and seeking employment, while over a quarter are unemployed not seeking employment, and less than a quarter had an unknown destination. Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Improved the further education and employment prospects for our young people What success looks like: Every child leaving a NL school is able to share equally in the improving economic picture and achieve the pathway they wish to C14: School exclusion rate per 1,000 pupils - all children Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Reduced the number of children not in education What success looks like: No child in NL is excluded from education The North Lanarkshire commentary: • NL schools have seen a drop in exclusion rates over the period of the reported data which is consistent with the rate of improvement nationally. • NL exclusion rates are closer to those of comparator councils (where rates are an average 13.7 per 1,000 children). • A range of service interventions have improved supports for NLs pupils in recent years, this has ensured that resources and decision making are devolved to where needs arise. • Over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire overall exclusion rates have improved by 56% from 35.1 per 1,000 pupils in 2016/17 to 15.3 in 2020/21). C15: School exclusion rate per 1,000 pupils - looked after children Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Reduced the number of our most vulnerable children and young people not in education What success looks like: No child looked after in NL is excluded from education The North Lanarkshire commentary: • NL schools have also seen a significant drop in exclusion rates for looked after children over the period of the reported data which is in line with the trend nationally. • The latest NL exclusion rates for looked after children (95.7 per 1,000 children) are now lower than those of comparator councils (where rates are an average of 127.2 per 1,000). • Over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire exclusion rates for looked after children have improved by almost 70% from 317.9 per 1,000 pupils in 2016/17 to 95.7 in 2020/21). • A range of service interventions have improved supports for NLs pupils in recent years, this has ensured that resources and decision making are devolved to where needs arise. • The calculation for this indicator have changed in previous years and all figures have been re- baselined; this means it is now comparable with overall exclusion rates (i.e. indicator C14).
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C22: % of children in poverty after housing costs The North Lanarkshire commentary: • With the vision of inclusive growth and prosperity for all in The Plan for North Lanarkshire, this indicator is of particular relevance to ensure that all of NLs children get the best start in life. • Significant improvements are noted in the proportion of children in poverty over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire - from a baseline of 25.2% in 2016/17 to 23.2% in 2020/21. • Although showing signs of improvement, there remains almost one in four children in NL living in poverty - higher than the national average of 20.9% (just over one in five children). • There are a broad range of factors contributing to child poverty locally and of concern is the disparity across wards in NL, as according to HMRC data for March 2021, there were 11,697 (18.8%) children aged 0 -15 in NL living in relative low income families. • This ranges from 23.4% in Airdrie Central ward and 22.9% in Coatbridge North, to 10.6% in Stepps, Chryston, and Muirhead and Cumbernauld North. Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Reduced the number of our children and their families living in poverty What success looks like: No child in NL experiences disadvantages because of poverty C10: % of children reviewed at 27 to 30 months with no concerns recorded Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Improved the wellbeing of our youngest children What success looks like: The majority of NLs babies get the best start in life and where issues occur, they are addressed at the earliest opportunity The North Lanarkshire commentary: • 82.9% of children in NL have no concerns in any domain at their 27-30 month review compared to a national average of 85.1%, • There are however 17.1% of children in NL who have concerns recorded in at least one domain. • The pattern for children with no concerns in any domain (one or more domains) still remains less than the highest level recorded in 2017/18 (83.7%), but is higher than The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline of 81% (2016/17). • Early identification of developmental issues is crucial to ensuring that children reach their full potential. C09: % of babies breastfed at 6-8 week review (overall rate) Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Improved the wellbeing of our youngest children What success looks like: The majority of NLs babies get the best start in life and where issues occur, they are addressed at the earliest opportunity The North Lanarkshire commentary: • NL has experienced a small year on year improvement in the proportion of babies breastfed at the 6-8 week review, which had been on a par with the level of improvement seen nationally. • The latest figures show that 26.6% of babies in NL are breastfed at their 6-8 week review, getting the best start in life; this is an improvement from The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline of 23.1% in 2017/18. • However, it still means that 73.4% of babies in NL are not breastfed at their 6-8 week review. • In 2021, the council, in partnership with NHS Lanarkshire, has taken a multi-strand approach to the promotion of breastfeeding in the organisation and wider community. As the Breastfeeding Friendly initiative progresses, this indicator enables a baseline against which to measure impact.
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C23: Life expectancy at birth - estimates (males and females) Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Improved the life expectancy of our residents What success looks like: More of NLs residents remain healthy for longer The North Lanarkshire commentary: • Latest life expectancy estimates in NL are 78.8 for females and 74.1 for males (depicted in Figure 23a). Although this age had been rising in recent years, gains have lately started to stall both locally and nationally. • Life expectancy for males and females in NL remains below the national average (with the national average life expectancy for females being 80.8 and for males 76.5) . • When considering the latest healthy life expectancy data (not depicted in any graph here), only 73% of their life (for males in NL) and 72% (for females in NL) is spent in good health compared to the Scotland average (males 79%, females 76%). • This is a decrease from The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline when 77.2% of their life (for males in NL) and 76.1% (for females in NL) was estimated to be spent in good health. • Note, healthy life expectancy data adds a quality of life dimension to estimates of life expectancy: - Life expectancy is the average number of years that an individual is expected to live based on current mortality rates. - Healthy life expectancy is the average number of years that an individual is expected to live in a state of self- assessed good or very good health, based on current mortality rates and prevalence of good or very good health. Considering health life expectancy data therefore brings in aspects around health and care, and the importance of active and healthy lifestyles. C24: % of adults supported at home who agreed that they are supported to live as independently as possible The North Lanarkshire commentary: • Over 130,000 individuals registered with a GP practice in Scotland responded to the 2021/22 national Health and Care Experience Survey, giving an overall response rate of 24%. The survey asks about people's experiences (during the previous 12 months) of accessing and using their GP practice and other local healthcare services; receiving care, support and help with everyday living; and caring responsibilities. • Changes in the indicator calculations nationally in 2018 mean that 2017/18 figures are not necessarily directly comparable with 2019/20 and 2021/22 figures for all 3 indicators. • C24: The results from the 2021/22 perception survey showed that 60% of people surveyed in NL agreed they were supported to live independently, with 40% who feel they are not. The latest figures for 2021/22 show a decline in satisfaction both in NL and nationally compared to the previous survey results in 2019/20. • C25: In 2021/22, 55% of people surveyed in NL agree that service and support improves their quality of life, 45% disagreed. The latest figures for 2021/22 show a decline in satisfaction both in NL and nationally compared to the previous survey results in 2019/20. • C26: In 2021/22, the percentage of people in NL who agree they are supported to continue caring decreased to 33% from 25% in the previous survey in 2019/20. The latest figures for 2021/22 show a decline in satisfaction both in NL and nationally. • It is expected that the 2021/22 results will reflect to some extent individual perceptions that were acquired during the pandemic, making the survey results in 2019/20 and 2021/22 less able to be compared on a similar basis. Measuring these 2 indicators will tell us if we have: Improved the independence and quality of life of our older residents What success looks like: NLs residents are supported as independently as possible for as long as possible C25: % of adults supported at home who agree their services and support had an impact on improving or maintaining their quality of life C26: total combined % of carers who feel supported to continue in their caring role Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Improved support to our residents who care for others What success looks like: NLs residents are supported as independently as possible for as long as possible
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C06: % change in total recorded crime Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Reduced our recorded crime rates What success looks like: NL experiencing a continued reduction in overall crime The North Lanarkshire commentary: • The latest results show a positive picture in the % change in total recorded crime in NL as the change in the crime rate has decreased from +3.6% in 2019/20 to -2.9% in 2020/21. • This is at a greater rate than the national average, where the change recorded is lower, i.e. the change in national rates were recorded at +2% in 2019/20 and -1.9% in 2020/21. • It is It is expected that the NL position has been impacted on significantly by the pandemic and, as such, will continue to be monitored. • All crime data has been redefined and rebased; the reported figures in this update therefore differ to previous updates. C05: Household waste - % recycled Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Improved our waste recycling rates What success looks like: Residents of NL actively reducing the amount of their household waste going to landfill and increasing their recycling rates The North Lanarkshire commentary: • 43.2% of household waste was recycled in NL in 2021/22. This is a marked improvement compared to recent years and NL is now above the national average (42.7%). • Recycling rates also show improvement over the period of The Plan for North Lanarkshire (from a baseline rate of 41.1% in 2016/17). • Nationally recycling rates have plateaued in recent years - this certainly reflects the impact of the pandemic and with more people staying at home there was increase in residual waste, while recycling tonnages remained similar. In NL up to 2020/21, this led to a reduction in the overall proportion of waste recycled. • It should be noted that the national recycling targets are not statutory. C07: Rating of neighbourhood (includes all neighbourhoods) Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Improved our residents’ perceptions of their neighbourhoods What success looks like: Having neighbourhoods where people want to live is a fundamental aspect of the shared ambition The North Lanarkshire commentary: • Residents’ perceptions of their neighbourhood have remained relatively stable with little change recorded over the years. • It should be noted though that this perception measure covers all neighbourhoods and pre-dates the 2020 pandemic and, as such, will continue to be monitored. • Results at a local authority level are not yet available from the 2020 Scottish Household Survey. Changes to the 2020 survey methodology (as a result of the pandemic) may impact on the availability of results for these indicators moving forward; this has still to be confirmed. C08: Rating of neighbourhood as a place to live (includes only the 20% most deprived neighbourhoods, as defined by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation) Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Improved the perceptions of our most disadvantaged communities of the areas in which they live What success looks like: Improvements to the most deprived neighbourhoods to ensure that residents share equally in the improving picture and there is social inclusion across our diverse towns and communities The North Lanarkshire commentary: • Residents’ perceptions of their neighbourhood have returned to being relatively stable in 2019 compared to 2017, after some fluctuations in 2018. • It should be noted though that this perception measure only covers the 20% most deprived neighbourhoods and pre-dates the 2020 pandemic and, as such, will continue to be monitored.
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C04: Estimated housing by tenure Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Increased the housing choice available to our existing and future residents What success looks like: Having a range of housing stock that meets population growth demands and also changes in household composition The North Lanarkshire commentary: • The council remains the largest local authority landlord in Scotland with a stock of 36,961 homes (2022). • In terms of overall households, there were an estimated 153,643 in NL in 2021 - which is an increase of 16% (20,888) from 2001 compared to an increase of 15% in the number of households in Scotland over the same period. • Figures 04a and 04b on the left show NLs housing by tenure, with the largest proportion being owner occupied. • Note, the 2020 figures published have combined owner occupied and private rented figures together - this explains the even larger increase in the owner occupied figure in 2020. • While the population is expected to fall overall by 0.9% by 2043, household numbers are projected to rise by 9%; this will mean increased demand for homes - the table below provides more details in terms of household projections (from a 2018 base). • The number of individual households in North Lanarkshire are predicted to increase by 5,720 new households by 2028 and by a further 4,720 from 2028 to 2043. • More significantly, single adult households are projected to increase by 14% (almost 7,240 people) by 2,043. • Similarly households with 2 adults are projected to increase by 14.1% (+6,080) by 2043.
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C03: Total net migration - rate per 1,000 population Measuring this indicator will tell us if we have: Increased our population and net inward migration What success looks like: Steadily increasing population in NL, and in particular growth in the number of school age children and the working age population The North Lanarkshire commentary: • Inward migration in NL has been positive in recent years, meaning more people have moved in than out. • The recent trend shows a 3.2% increase in net migration (2021) which is contributing to NLs population growth. • While this trend mirrors that of the national position 5.1%), inward migration in NL remains at a lower growth rate than Scotland. • Inward migration is a general sign of a positive economic picture. C01: Population projections - % change The North Lanarkshire commentary: • The NL population is projected to increase 0.3% from 2018 to 2028 (+990 people), compared to growth of 1.8% in Scotland. The NL population is then projected to fall by a further -0.9% (-3,010 people) from 2028 to 2043. • The tables above show a detailed breakdown of the projected change in the population from 2018 to 2028 when growth remains favourable, and from 2018 to 2043 when growth is predicted to decline. • Of note are changes that by 2043 will see a 7.6% reduction in the working age population and a 14.8% reduction in children aged under 16, but a 39.6% increase in adults aged 65+. • Within the aged 65+ age range, population projections expect to see a 16.2% increase in adults aged 65 to 74 and a 71.5% increase in adults aged 75+. C02: Population - mid-year estimates (mye) The North Lanarkshire commentary: • NLs population has been growing since 2009. The population as at The Plan for North Lanarkshire baseline was 339,960; this increased to 341,400 in 2021. • This growth rate was lower than the national average and there was a drop in growth as at 2020, but this was followed by a small increase in the 2021 update. • Population projections estimate that NLs population growth will remain favourable to 2028, even before housing growth expected from the new housing supply programme is factored in, but drop by 0.9% by 2043. Measuring these 2 indicators will tell us if we have: Increased our population and net inward migration What success looks like: Steadily increasing population in NL, and in particular growth in the number of school age children and the working age population