Medium-Term Financial Outlook and Approach
North Ayrshire Council · 5 November 2025
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NORTH AYRSHIRE COUNCIL 5 November 2025 North Ayrshire Council Title: Medium-Term Financial Outlook and Approach 2026/27 to 2028/29 Purpose: To outline the financial challenges facing the Council and examine the likely financial position of the Council’s General Fund in the medium-term, to note the progress made in addressing the challenges and to commence a programme of engagement with communities. The feedback from which will help inform the development of budget proposals for consideration at the Council’s Budget meeting in February 2026. Recommendation: That Council considers the Medium-Term Financial Outlook 2026/27 to 2028/29, notes the scale of the financial challenges facing the Council over this period and the range of areas being progressed and included within the planned programme of engagement with communities. Following the period of engagement, considers the feedback from communities and brings forward proposals to set a balanced budget for 2026/27. 1. Executive Summary 1.1 Local authorities continue to operate in a very challenging and uncertain environment with public sector funding not keeping pace with the increasing costs and demand for services. In this climate it is important that Councils take a long-term view whist also recognising areas of short-term pressure impacted through prevailing periods of higher inflation. The Council’s Long-Term Financial Outlook is the cornerstone of the Council’s strategic financial framework and establishes a sound basis for the development of the Medium-Term Financial Outlook and subsequent annual budgets, helping the Council address the challenges it faces and align resources to key priorities. 1.2 The Long-Term Financial Outlook 2024/25 to 2033/34 was presented to Council on 13 December 2023 and identified an estimated funding shortfall of £127m over this period which the Council requires to address. This included anticipated pressures in relation to the Health and Social Care Partnership (HSCP) and was based on best estimates at that time with sensitivity analyses highlighting the implications of changes to the underlying assumptions. 1.3. The Medium-Term Financial Outlook for the period 2026/27 to 2028/29 draws on similar data and projections to that contained in the Long-Term Financial Outlook,
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however the financial projections have been updated for this period based on more recent cost analysis and funding metrics. This has identified a gross funding gap of £61.6m over the next 3 years, excluding any assumptions regarding planned use of reserves and Council tax increases, which must be addressed as part of the Council’s Medium-Term Financial Plan. 1.4 The scale of this challenge will continue to have an impact on the range and level of services delivered by the Council, and this will require to be managed within the context of its statutory and regulatory responsibilities. Before the Council considers the range of budget proposals and the level of Council tax for 2026/27, it is appropriate to undertake a programme of engagement with communities, that firstly sets out the scale of the financial challenge facing the Council but, importantly, seeks feedback across a range of areas of Council services. This feedback will play an important role in informing the Council of the views from North Ayrshire communities and any anticipated impacts from the budget proposals, including any equality impacts and those which could proportionately have a greater impact on the island communities. This feedback will be considered as part of the development the Council’s Medium-Term Financial Plan. 1.5 To help address the financial challenges, the Council will continue to progress the sustainable change and transformation programme at scale and pace over the short, medium and longer term, and for this activity to be incorporated in the Council’s Medium-Term Financial Plan and aligned to the key priorities set out within the Council Plan 2023-2028. 1.6 The Council via COSLA will continue to engage with Scottish Government on local government funding. The Scottish Government published its Medium-Term Financial Strategy in June 2025. This was supported by a Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan. The strategy sets out Scottish Government priorities across 3 main pillars. It is evident from the 1st pillar “Ensuring public money is focused on delivering government objectives, underpinned by reform and prioritisation to maximise impact” that this will present a challenging financial landscape for the public sector, however, the extent to which this will impact the local government finance settlement remains unclear at this time. Within this context it is vital that Councils consider the use of all available powers as an alternative to service reductions. It is also important that Councils continue to lobby Scottish Government for maximum financial flexibility across all policy areas, in particular, funding for health and social care and education. 1.7 Elected members will continue to receive briefings on the progress of the Medium- Term Financial Plan and officers will continue to support members in developing proposals to address the budget gaps. 2. Background Long-Term Financial Outlook (LTFO) 2.1 The Council’s revised Long-Term Financial Outlook 2024/25 to 2033/34 was approved on 13 December 2023 and identified an estimated funding shortfall of £127m over this period which the Council requires to address. This included anticipated pressures in relation to the Health and Social Care Partnership (HSCP) and was based on best estimates at that time with sensitivity analyses highlighting the implications of changes to the underlying assumptions. The report included a range of information, including:
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• The strategic financial framework; • Local issues for North Ayrshire including our current and anticipated demographic and health profiles, employment and levels of deprivation and the impact these will have on the Council's income and cost base; • Global and national economic performance; • Factors affecting Scottish Government funding and funding for Local Government; • The financial outlook for North Ayrshire including funding and expenditure requirements; • A review of the Council's balance sheet including assets, debt, future liabilities and reserves; and • The strategic response required by the Council to ensure future financial sustainability. The Medium-Term Financial Outlook 2.2 The Medium-Term Financial Outlook for the period 2026/27 to 2028/29 draws on the same data and projections as the Long-Term Financial Outlook, however, brings into sharper focus the short and medium-term impacts from recent key global, UK and national events, all of which contribute to a challenging financial landscape for citizens, communities, and local government finance. Economic Outlook 2.3 Funding for public services is linked to the performance of global and national economies and through the volatility in financial markets. UK Government fiscal policy and Bank of England Monetary policy decisions have an influence on local government finance, whether it is through the level of Block grant available to Scotland, or the purchasing power associated with this funding within the context of inflation and the level of interest rates, which affects the cost of borrowing for Councils. Inflation 2.4 Although inflation has remained relatively static, households will continue to experience pressures on disposable income driven in some part by further rises in energy costs in the short term. 2.5 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to August 2025. This has been unchanged in the last 3 months since June 2025. It remains above the Bank of England (BoE) target of 2%. Latest forecasts project Inflation will remain over 3% during the rest of 2025 and then fall towards 2% by the end of the 1st half of 2026. Moving forward, this should have the effect of stabilising costs across various commodities and importantly, where contracts are linked to inflation indices, this should minimise any increases.
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Public Sector Pay 2.6 Employee costs represent around 50% of the Council’s gross expenditure budget. Inflationary pressure in this area represents a significant pressure that will be faced by the Council over the medium and long-term. Pay awards have been agreed with unions across the SJC as part of a 2-year deal i.e. 4% increase for 2025/26 and a further 3.5% for 2026/27. Negotiations with teaching unions within the SNCT continue with no agreement yet in place from August 2025. This position presents a risk to Councils. 2.7 In terms of funding, the Scottish Government has committed to providing additional funding in 2025/26 which represents the element of the pay award increase over 3% (i.e. SG Funding equating to 1% in 2025/26) and that this will be baselined in 2025/26. Further, the Scottish Government will provide 0.5% of the 3.5% pay increase agreed for 2026/27. In summary, Council’s require to fund 3% increases for both years which, it is recognised, sits at the maximum level of affordability. The distribution of funding has still to take place. The planning assumption across the medium and long-term is for the Council funding element for pay awards to remain at a 3% increase each year from 2027/28. Future pay negotiations will continue to be influenced by the level of inflation and the trade union commitment to progress towards a minimum pay level of £15 per hour for staff. The latter having further significant financial implications for Councils. It is also noted from current negotiations with teaching unions, that class contact time remains an area of ongoing discussion and negotiation. Depending on the outcome, this could have potentially significant financial implications for Councils. Interest Rates 2.8 The Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee met on 18 September 2025 and voted to maintain the bank base rate at 4.00%. It is projected that the base interest rate will likely remain at 4.00% at the next meeting on 6 November 2025, with further cuts projected later in 2026, however, this will very much depend on inflation being at or around the 2% BoE target. From a Council borrowing perspective, through the Public Works Loans Board, the rates available are linked to the performance of government bond yields (Gilts). Current projections indicate that bond yields will continue to fall slightly, leading to a reduced cost of borrowing. The landscape, however, remains quite uncertain. Any reduction in the cost of borrowing would help alleviate some of the pressures in delivering the capital programme. The Scottish and UK Landscape 2.9 The Scottish Government published its updated Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) and Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan (FSDP) on the 25 June 2025. The MTFS was presented across 3 priority pillars:- • Pillar 1: Ensuring public money is focused on delivering government objectives, underpinned by reform and prioritisation to maximise impact. • Pillar 2: Supporting sustainable, inclusive, economic policies with the greatest potential to grow Scotland's economy, expand and broaden the tax base to fund public services.
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• Pillar 3: Ensuring a strategic approach to tax revenues, which considers the longer-term impact of our tax choices and competitiveness. Pillar 1 sets out the ambitions for the wider public sector and the need for reform and prioritisation of resources, however, at this time it is not clear the extent to which this ambition will impact on the Local Government finance settlement. 2.10 The Scottish Government Programme for Government reaffirmed the 4 main priority areas of: • Eradicating child poverty • Growing the economy • Tackling the climate emergency, and • Ensuring high quality and sustainable public services 2.11 The Scottish Government continues to state its commitment to the Verity House Agreement and to work more closely with local government to deliver shared priorities for communities. As part of this, a Fiscal Framework was recently agreed via COSLA that sets out a foundation for co-operation and co-ordination on all matters concerning the financial relationship between the Scottish Government and Local Government. This includes areas of local taxation, fiscal flexibilities and multi-year allocations. The intention for 2026/27 is that the local government settlement will be supported with information that outlines multi-year allocations, however, the level of detail that will be available remains unclear at this time. 2.12 The UK Government will deliver its Autumn Budget on 26 November 2025. This is around one month later than normal practice. The knock-on effect of this is such that Scottish Government has recently confirmed that the Scottish Budget for 2026/27 is now due to be published on the 13 January 2026, with the local government finance settlement anticipated at the same time. It is anticipated that this will be supported by details of multi-year allocations for 2027/28 and 2028/29, however, the level of detail has yet to be confirmed. This is around 6 weeks later than last year and will present challenges to all Councils in setting Budgets. The North Ayrshire Council meeting to consider the Budget is scheduled for Wednesday 25 February 2026. 2.13 Within this context, current indicators point to a continuation of a challenging fiscal landscape for Councils. It is also recognised, from a political context, that two cycles of upcoming elections may influence areas of policy, prioritisation and investment, with the Scottish Parliamentary elections in May 2026, followed by local government elections in May 2027. The focus of the Council, linked to ongoing discussions as part of the Verity House Agreement, is to maximise any financial flexibility available. It is important that Councils, via COSLA, continue to lobby Scottish Government for maximum financial flexibility across all policy areas, in particular, funding for health and social care and teachers. Careful consideration is required in the use of these powers when setting a balanced budget, with the aim to minimise cuts to vital services, impacting on communities and outcomes, and to manage the level of Council Tax increases.
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Financial Outlook for North Ayrshire Council Allocation of Resources 2.14 The Chart below summarises the allocation of resources for 2025/26 approved at Council in February 2025, with around 50% of gross expenditure relating to employee costs; 2.15 It is recognised in the last number of years, the level of influenceable budget not linked to Scottish Government requirements or statutory contractual commitments, be it through the Health and Social Care Partnership (HSCP) or large elements of the education budget, has greatly reduced. This continues to place a disproportionate level of pressure on the other Council budgets. This is unsustainable within the context of trying to deliver effective services to communities. Medium-Term Financial Pressures and Planning Assumptions 2.16 Following an assessment of cost pressures and anticipated income levels, the next 3 years forecasts continue to be subject to a degree of volatility, albeit there has been a more sustained reduction in the level of general inflation. Work to review the General Services Capital Programme continues to be impacted by a high level of construction cost volatility. When set within the context of the current planning assumptions around funding, this has resulted in a projected medium-term gross funding gap of £61.6m (including the HSCP) and £39.3m (excluding the HSCP) over the next 3 years. The scale of this gap will present challenges to the Council in delivering balanced budgets. Areas of significant pressures identified within the Medium-Term financial Outlook include: Workforce costs 2.17 As noted in sections 2.6 to 2.7, the pay award for 2025/26 and 2026/27 has been agreed across SJC bargaining groups. Negotiations with teaching unions continues.
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The current planning assumption beyond that which has already been agreed across the medium and long-term is for the Council funding element of pay awards to remain at a 3% increase each year. As noted in section 2.7 of the report, for 2026/27, the Scottish Government have committed to fund the increase in pay above 3% i.e. 0.5% additional funding. Future pay negotiations will be influenced by the ongoing level of inflation and the trade union commitment to progress towards a minimum pay level of £15 per hour for staff. The latter having significant financial implications for public sector finance. Staff Group 2026/27 Planning Assumption 2027/28 Planning Assumption 2028/29 Planning Assumption Teachers 3.5% from August 3% from August 3% Other Staff 3.5% Agreed 3% 3% 2.18 North Ayrshire Council (including the HSCP) has benefitted from reduced Strathclyde Pension Fund (SPF) employer contribution rates, from 19.3% to 6.5% for 2024/25 and 2025/26. From the last triennial review of the fund, contribution rates from 1 April 2026 are scheduled to increase to 17.5%. The Council’s financial planning to date across 2024/25 and 2025/26 assumed the recurring contribution rate at 17.5% as this represents the revised structural rate for the Council. This allowed the Council to benefit from a non-recurring pension rebate across 2024/25 and 2025/26 and avoid a cliff edge pressure in 2026/27. As things currently stand, the next triennial actuarial review of the fund will commence later this year, with the outcome communicated in advance of the 2027/28 Budget. The current funding level of the SPF noted in the Annual Report at the 31 March 2025, reflected an indicative funding position of 174%. This position has improved since the previous 2023 valuation, at 147%, being the figure that then informed recommended contribution rates for the main employing groups for the subsequent three years. Based on this position, it is anticipated that the Council would likely accrue some benefit from 2017/28, however, this will be subject to the outcome of the review. 2.19 The projected position of HSCP, influenced by significant demographic, demand, funding and inflationary pressures of around £8.2m in 2026/27, indicates a potential funding deficit position of between £8m to £21m in 2026/27, with a central planning deficit assumption of between the best and medium-case scenarios of around £11m. The position for 2026/27 has been influenced by the anticipated change in employer pension contribution rate as outlined in section 2.18. The effect of which is an increase in costs of £6.7m in 2026/27. Recovery actions and savings options continue to be progressed through the Integration Joint Board; however, this position presents a significant risk to the financial sustainability of the Council. In view of this and as part of the Council’s Budget setting process, elected members will require to carefully consider the level of contribution to the HSCP. This should also be considered within the context of the level of general revenue grant received, any settlement conditions, savings to be made by the HSCP and considerations on the level of any Council tax increase.
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Other Inflationary Costs 2.20 Inflationary cost increases have been included in forecasts for major utilities (electricity and gas), fuel, food and those contractual commitments with increases linked to inflation indices. In respect of utilities, cost forecasts are based on rates secured via Procurement Scotland from the advance purchases and from available price indices applied to the balance of expected energy need across each of the years. 2.21 Major contracts linked to inflation indices include PPP contracts and waste contracts. Cost impacts based on inflation forecasts over the next 3 years have been included in the budget models. In addition to this an allowance has been made to cover other major contractual increases e.g. Strathclyde Passenger for Transport to meet legislative requirements. A particular area of cost pressure linked to inflation and growing demand, is transport costs associated with children with additional support needs. 2.22 The Council currently makes no additional financial provision for general inflation. It is recognised that due to the previous high levels of inflation, this continues to place further strain on operational budgets across the Council. The implications of this include a reduced level of purchasing power for a range of materials and commodities and re-phasing of programmes / activities to operate within existing resources on an annual basis. This position is most acute across the Place Directorate due to the nature and range of services provided. Ongoing work is being carried out to consider a risk-based funding prioritisation approach for those activities that have been most impacted by inflation. Any allowance for additional funding will be subject to the level of revenue grant received and set within the context of other pressures facing the Council. It is important that elected members are kept fully informed of any impacts. An initial additional cost assessment of £0.5m will be included within Budget plans at this time. 2.23 Although interest rates have remained static in recent months at 4.00%, the cost of borrowing remains relatively high. This, along with ongoing construction cost volatility places a burden on the affordability of the 10-year capital programme. With the recent completion of Montgomerie Park and Moorpark primary schools and approval of additional funding to support the construction of the new Ardrossan Campus, the stage of these developments has helped provide greater clarity on costs, however, the financial impact of this along with a number of other projects that are at earlier stages of development, will require additional revenue investment across the medium and long-term to ensure delivery of the Council’s ambitious capital programme. Local Government Funding and Anticipated Budget Gap 2.24 Single year settlements have been a feature of Scottish Government budget setting since 2015/16. This approach continues to create a high level of uncertainty around future funding levels and can impede progress in delivering sustainable change. This, alongside the complex interaction of block allocations from the UK Treasury, Scottish Government fiscal policy, priorities and commitments and the complexities of the distribution formulae, makes it difficult to forecast future grant funding levels. Whilst the overall quantum of funding available to local government remains unclear, the Scottish Government has made a commitment to include information to support multi-
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year allocations. This will be received as part of the 2026/27 local government settlement due in January 2026. Once the level of detail for future years is assessed, it is hoped that this new approach will support more sustainable medium-term financial planning. 2.25 Within this funding landscape, and with a predicted decline in overall population for North Ayrshire, it is both reasonable and prudent to assume that the level of future budget settlements will remain challenging. The MTFO forecast includes a flat cash funding projection over the duration of the next 3 years. This position assumes that any potential uplift in the quantum of funding would be negated by the impact of the declining North Ayrshire population demographic relative to a projected increase in national population levels and shifts in population, mainly from west coast and rural authorities to the central belt and the east of the country. North Ayrshire will continue to be protected from large negative movements in funding from the “Floor adjustment” included in the settlement, however, this simply slows down the level of funding reduction over a longer timeframe. 2.26 The Medium-Term Financial Planning includes various modelled assumptions of Council tax increases for 2025/26. In 2024/25 the Budget was supported by a Council tax freeze. In 2025/26 the Council tax increase was 7%. This represented the second lowest level of increase across Scotland. In a national context, North Ayrshire currently has the 18th highest level of Council tax (Band D - £1,554) from the 32 local authority areas. Although the central planning assumption for 2026/27 includes a 5% increase at this time across each of the next 3 years, the level of increase will have to be considered within the context of the finance settlement received and the areas of significant financial pressures and risks facing the Council, most notably from the HSCP. 2.27 Since 2017/18 the Council has used over £27m of reserves to support recurring expenditure. A further review of all reserves will be carried out as part of the Medium- Term Financial Plan. The Council meeting of 1 March 2023 approved the use of reserves, generated from Service Concession flexibility, to support the Budget programme over the medium-term. Due to the scale of the budget gaps forecast this funding is an essential element to deliver balanced budgets over the medium-term. As stated previously, this approach will provide only temporary mitigation and will require to run in parallel with the delivery of more sustainable measures in reducing the Council’s cost base. Approved reserves to support the Budget are included in the undernoted table. Reserves 2024/25 £m 2025/26 £m 2026/27 £m 2027/28 £m £5.0m £4.0m £3.5m £1.8m 2.28 A summary of the anticipated gross funding gap of the Council (excluding any assumptions on increases to Council tax currently and excluding any planned use of reserves for 2026/27 and 2027/28) over the next three years is provided in the table below. Although the budget in respect of the HSCP is a matter for the Integration Joint Board to consider, the undernoted table includes details of additional anticipated HSCP pressures in respect of the Council services element of the HSCP. This is appropriate as the Council is a key funding partner for the services delegated to the Integration Joint Board, and although the Council’s expenditure plans currently
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reflects a flat cash funding position, the level of Council contribution will be a matter for elected members to consider within the context of the pressures faced. Further work continues to refine the underlying assumptions. It is recognised that the scale of the financial challenge facing the Council is significant and this will require a range of measures to address. 2026/27 £m 2027/28 £m 2028/29 £m Total £m General Fund Funding Gap £12.5m £13.8m £13.0m £39.3m HSCP Pressures (including pay) £8.2m £7.0m £7.1m £22.3m Total £20.7m £20.8m £20.1m £61.6m Sensitivity Analysis 2.29 Given the uncertainty that underpins the assumptions, sensitivity analysis has been carried out on the key components. A +/-1% movement on these areas can result in a significant movement in funding or costs as outlined below: • Scottish Government Grant £3.9m; • Council Tax Funding £0.7m; • Payroll costs incl. HSCP £3.2m Reserves Strategy and Financial Sustainability Measures 2.30 The Council’s usable reserves are classified as either earmarked or unearmarked. The Council’s current unearmarked reserves, i.e. those set aside to allow the Council to manage any unanticipated events, currently total £9.181m, equivalent to 2% of General Fund net budgeted expenditure. This represents the lower end of recommended good practice of between 2% and 4%. In addition to unearmarked reserves, earmarked reserves have been established to meet a range of known commitments, including the Council’s Investment fund and Recovery and Renewal Investment programme, and it is anticipated that these will continue to reduce over the years as projects and are delivered. 2.31 The level of Council reserves requires to be maintained at the right level to ensure the Council’s future financial stability. These are kept under review and considered annually when setting the Council Budget. 2.32 The Council also maintains statutory reserves in the form of an Insurance fund and Capital Fund. The Insurance Fund is maintained to meet the cost of future insurance liabilities, while the current Capital Fund is earmarked to support the Council’s Capital Investment programme and any capital financing requirements.
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2.33 Against a backdrop of financial pressures, it is vital to develop a framework that allows measurement of the financial sustainability of the Council. Financial sustainability has been identified as one of the key strategic risks facing the Council. Demand pressures and funding constraints have resulted in challenges to the delivery of balanced budgets on an annual basis, with recognition that the use of reserves and non- recurring savings options is unsustainable. The measures noted below from the Local Government Benchmarking Framework demonstrate the sufficiency of available reserves to support future service delivery, the affordability of the capital investment plans in terms of their impact on our revenue streams and the effectiveness of budget monitoring activities. 2024/25 Scottish average data is not yet available, however, the 2023/24 data for North Ayrshire compares favourably with the Scottish averages against most indicators. Financial Sustainability Measure North Ayrshire 2024/25 North Ayrshire 2023/24 Scottish Average LGBF 2023/24 Ratio of usable General Fund reserves to annual budget 23.5% 24.8% 23.9% Ratio of uncommitted General Fund balances to annual budget 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% Ratio of financing costs to net revenue stream – General Fund 3.3% 2.7% 5.8% Ratio of financing costs to net revenue stream – Housing Revenue Account 21.3% 18.9% 20.0% Actual outturn as a percentage of budgeted expenditure 100.0% 100.0% 99.6% 2.34 The level of reserves supports financial sustainability and provides contingencies to support unexpected financial demands. Although the ratio of uncommitted General Fund balances compared to annual budget is below the Scottish average of 2.3%, 2.0% reflects North Ayrshire Council’s reserves policy and it is recognised that this is at the lower end of the recommended range of 2% to 4%. The ratio of financing costs to revenue streams demonstrates prudence and ensures that funding of capital investment plans does not consume a high proportion of the annual revenue budget. The ratios of financing costs sit below the Scottish averages, indicating that North Ayrshire is less leveraged than other councils and has proportionally directed more expenditure into other priority areas. The level of Housing Revenue Account loan charges is deemed prudent and affordable within the framework of the current 30-year Housing Business Plan. The effectiveness of the Council’s budget monitoring is demonstrated by an outturn position that does not exceed the planned budget. Health and Social Care Partnership (HSCP) 2.35 The Integration Scheme sets out the Integrated Joint Board’s (IJB) responsibility for financial planning and management of the HSCP’s resources. The IJB has an implicit statutory obligation to set a balanced budget.
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2.36 Information on anticipated pressures and proposed savings options are shared with North Ayrshire Council to inform the allocation of resources delegated to the IJB. The level of contribution to the HSCP is currently based on an anticipated “flat cash” planning assumption where the HSCP would look to address budget pressures through the delivery of equivalent savings. The allocation of resources will also continue to be influenced by any requirements set out in the local government finance settlement. The HSCP have identified additional financial pressures of £8.2m in 2026/27 and £22.3m over the next 3 years. As noted in section 2.19 of the report, a potential funding deficit position of between £8m to £21m in 2026/27 is projected, with a central planning deficit projection of between the best and medium-case scenarios of £11m. Savings options are currently being progressed to address this position. 2.37 The HSCP does not hold any current unearmarked reserves. The position reported at Cabinet on 28 October 2025 indicated the HSCP project an overspend on the Council Services element of £3.208m for 2025/26, reduced to £0.957m following identified financial recovery actions. A Finance Working Group has been established to address this position and to identify further recovery actions. 2.38 The current financial position of the HSCP presents a significant risk to the financial sustainability of the Council. The Integration Scheme states If the recovery plan is not successful the Parties (the Council and NHS Ayrshire and Arran) will consider making interim funds available based on the agreed percentage contribution for joint responsibilities, with repayment in future years on the basis of a revised recovery plan agreed by the Parties and Integration Joint Board. In 2024/25 the Council made an additional contribution of £2.036m to address the Council services element of the overspend in that year. It is recognised that the Council’s capacity to make any interim funds available is limited, due to the current level of Council reserves and the anticipated levels of future funding and pressures. The Council’s Approach and Progress to Date 2.39 The Council’s approach, as set out in the Long-Term Financial Outlook, will continue to be influenced by the priorities set out in the Council Plan 2023-28. The Council’s key priorities are defined as: • Wellbeing – to transition to a wellbeing economy, delivering prosperity, wellbeing, and resilience for local people. • Communities and Local Democracy – we will have active, inclusive, and resilient communities. • Climate Change – to achieve net-zero by 2030 • A Sustainable Council – a Community Wealth Building Council that is efficient and accessible, maximising investment and focusing resources towards our priorities. 2.40 The Council will require to prioritise available funding in accordance with its statutory and regulatory obligations and aligned with the key priorities. This will also require to be supported by the delivery of sustainable change and Transformation at scale and pace. In this regard progress continues to be made across several areas including renewable energy investment and monitoring, property programmes that maximise
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opportunities for community ownership, commercial property development, digital projects including testing the use of Artificial Intelligence and supported with the Council’s AI Policy, as well as a range of service reviews across waste services, learning resources and economic growth and regeneration. All of this activity will help address the Budget gaps across the medium-term. It is also recognised that to deliver larger scale savings over the medium and longer-term, wider reform requires to be considered, including exploring areas of shared service delivery on a regional basis. This work is being progressed across Ayrshire. Total savings governed through the Council’s Transformation programme up to 2025/26 total £7.297m, with further savings included within the Budget plans for 2026/27 and beyond. This is a key component of the MTFP, as this approach helps protect vital Council services. 2.41 The Accounts Commission at its meeting on 9 October 2025, agreed to make findings on the Controller of Audit’s Statutory Report on Best Value in North Ayrshire Council. The Commission intends to publish the findings together with the report on the 28 October 2025. This will provide an independent examination on the Council’s approach to Transformation, performance, financial planning and leadership. Full details of the finding will be made available to Council for elected members to consider. 2.42 The Council should also continue to consider areas of financial flexibility and associated revenue generation from existing statutory powers and any further powers that could arise through progression of the Verity House Agreement. Examples of this included approval in February 2025 for the application of a 100% second home Council tax premium and changes to the level of empty property relief claimed through non-domestic rates. Future considerations may include a tourist visitor levy, with work being progressed to develop an outline scheme, however, any proposed changes would be subject to extensive consultation and elected member approval. 2.43 It is also important that Councils also continue to lobby Scottish Government (via COSLA) for maximum financial flexibility across all policy area budgets, in particular, funding for health and social care and education. A particular focus within Education Services is the alignment of learning resources against a backdrop of a reducing pupil roll demographic in North Ayrshire. The reduction in pupil roll will continue to impact the Council’s grant aided expenditure levels, with a reduced relative share of funding coming through to North Ayrshire. To add further context, the current pupil : teacher ratio in North Ayrshire remains one of the lowest in the country. 2.44 As noted in section 2.27 of the report, the planned use of reserves to support the MTFP remains an important element in delivering future balanced budgets, albeit it is recognised that this is not a sustainable approach and requires to run in parallel with more sustainable savings. Over the next 2 years a total of £5.3m reserves have been approved to support the Budget. 2.45 Revenue generation will continue to be an area which is considered in addressing various cost pressures faced by the Council. This ranges from considerations of the level of increase to be applied to Council fees and charges, to the recognition of further income due to be received by the Council in 2026/27 to help offset the cost of waste collection, disposal and recycling, in respect of extended packaging responsibility obligations on businesses, as administered via Pack UK. In February 2026, Council will also be asked to set a level of Council tax increase that considers the progress made in addressing the anticipated budget gap but also recognises the
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areas of significant financial risk to the Council, this being most acute in the projected financial position of the HSCP. 2.46 The triennial actuarial review of the Strathclyde Pension Fund will commence later this year, with the outcome expected to be communicated in advance of the 2027/28 Budget. Based on the current funding level on 31 March 2025, noted at 174%, it is anticipated that the Council would likely accrue some benefit from 2027/28, however, the extent of this will be subject to the outcome of the review. In view of this, whilst financial planning will continue to be managed over the medium and long-term, it is recognised that the primary focus will be on delivering a balanced budget in 2026/27. 2.47 A summary of progress in identifying savings options to address the 2026/27 Budget gap is included in appendix 1 of the report. For transparency, areas of savings that were approved as part of the 2025/26 Budget, that have a financial impact in 2026/27, have been included within the 1st section of the appendix. Section 2 includes a range of proposals for 2026/27 which can be categorised as operational efficiencies and changes within the Council. These include workforce planning reviews and areas of service re-design across Council directorates, resource level reviews and additional income recognition and generation. It is important to note that each of these areas of saving or additional income have no or minimal impact on the delivery of Council policy or services with no anticipated negative impact on communities. When undertaking service reviews, a zero-based budgeting approach is adopted, and the changes are integrated within service workforce plans. Section 3 of the appendix includes savings proposals where, it is recognised, there could be an impact on the level of service delivery and therefore could have an impact on communities. This section will form the basis of the community engagement programme, where feedback is sought to help assess any negative impacts in advance of setting the Budget in February 2026. 2.48 In summary, with a projected gross General fund revenue gap of £12.5m (excluding the HSCP) anticipated for 2026/27, based on current planning assumptions, this position already includes the savings that were included in the 2025/26 Budget, as noted in section 1 of appendix 1 i.e. £2.3m. From section 2.22 of the report, based on recent work, additional cost pressures of £0.5m have been included at this time to help facilitate a risk-based priority investment approach for those activities most impacted by inflation. The draft savings options included in sections 2 and 3 of appendix 1 total £5.1m. This, coupled with a planned use of reserves of £3.5m for 2026/27, as outlined in section 2.27 of the report, leaves a residual funding gap of around £4.4m at this time. For reference purposes this remaining gap equates to a 5.5% increase in Council tax. Elected members will consider the range of savings options that have been developed, any further areas of savings to be developed and consider the level of any Council tax increase. It is important that any considerations around Council tax increases are also looked at within the context of the financial pressures facing the HSCP. 2.49 Supported by corporate and service workforce plans, any reduction to Council posts from the savings options will continue to be managed through natural attrition, vacancy management through the Vacancy Scrutiny Panel, redeployment and, where appropriate, voluntary early release.
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Community Engagement Programme 2.50 Before the Council considers the range of budget proposals to address this gap and the level of Council tax for 2026/27, consistent with the approach undertaken last year, it is appropriate to undertake a programme of engagement with communities. It is intended to make clear to communities the scale of the financial challenges facing the Council, the progress the Council is making in addressing the challenges, and to seek feedback across a range of areas of Council budget options. This feedback will play an important role in informing the Council of the views from communities and any anticipated impacts from the budget proposals, including any equality impacts and those which could proportionately have a greater impact on the island communities. This feedback will be considered as part of the ongoing development the Council’s Medium-Term Financial Plan. 2.51 Consistent with the approach adopted for the 2025/26 budget, included within appendix 1 of the report is an outline of the specific areas of budget engagement where feedback is sought from North Ayrshire communities. The programme of engagement will run from 6 November 2025 to mid-December 2025 and will include a range of on-line support materials, an on-line survey aligned to the specific areas outlined in appendix 1, and a programme of community conversations. These conversations will cover both geographical communities and groups representing communities of interest and protected characteristics. A range of council services will be involved in supporting these conversations, utilising the strong relationships that are already in place. To address digital exclusion, paper copies of the full survey will be made available at libraries and KA leisure facilities and citizens will also be able to contact the Customer Services team and provide feedback over the telephone. Also, as in the previous year, Services will promote the online survey to the residents they are in contact with through their social media channels and other resources. The timescale of engagement will allow feedback to be collated, then shared with elected members and communities, and considered in advance of the Council setting its Budget on 25 February 2026. Capital Investment Programme 2.52 The General Services Capital Investment Programme 2025/26 to 2033/34 was approved at Council on 26 February 2025. The review currently being undertaken for the 2026/27 Budget will continue to focus on the affordability of the current programme, when considering the additional cost pressures, mainly through high levels of construction inflation and volatility and risks associated with contractor claims. The financing of the capital programme includes borrowing and this will continue to be affected by relatively high levels of rates of government bond yields (Gilts) which links directly to the rates available through the Public Works Loans Board (PWLB). Although forecasts indicate that the borrowing rates associated Gilts may reduce further, this landscape remains uncertain. The position will continue to be monitored, and further financial provision will be incorporated in the medium and long- term financial planning, recognising however, that this will place further strain on the Council’s revenue budget. 2.53 As well as the additional costs being incurred in the capital programme, it is also recognised from the impact of inflation over the last few years, the purchasing power of lifecycle investments has been impacted. This affects capital investments in roads, property, vehicles, ICT and other infrastructure. The 2024/25 and 2025/26 Budgets included additional investment in these areas to address the impact of inflation,
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however, to continue to operate within available financial resources, even by sustaining the level of budgeted investment, could result in further real term reductions across these areas. This position will continue to be reviewed as part of the 2026/27 Budget. 2.54 In view of the current financial landscape, opportunities for areas of new capital investment which are not supported by funding, will be extremely limited and will require a robust business case to support any new investment proposal. 2.55 Funding the capital programme will be supported with further prudent assessments around the level and timing of capital receipts, the anticipated level of Scottish Government capital grant, the anticipated funding profiles associated with the Ayrshire Growth Deal and how the use of the Council’s loans fund reserve and capital fund will support the programme across the 10 years. 2.56 The anticipated revenue implications of the Capital Investment Programme have been reflected in the MTFP. Next Steps 2.57 In advance of the presentation of the Medium-Term Financial Outlook report, briefings for staff and elected members have been carried out. 2.58 Officers continue to progress the Medium-Term Financial Plan for 2026/27 to 2028/29 and develop options to address the budget gap covering this period. The Scottish Budget for 2026/27 is due to be published on the 13 January 2026. It is anticipated that the settlement will present a financial challenge to the Council which will require elected members to consider the options to address the gap as well as the level of Council tax increase to maintain vital services. This process will be supported with feedback from citizens and communities as part of the Council’s programme of community engagement, in advance of setting the Budget in February 2026. 2.59 Discussions continue with the Integration Joint Board to support a partnership approach to development of the HSCP’s budget. Following confirmation of the Local Government finance settlement in January, elected members will have to consider and agree the level of financial contribution to the HSCP. It is recognised that the current level of projected deficit presents a risk to the financial sustainability of the Council. 3. Proposals 3.1 That Council considers the Medium-Term Financial Outlook 2026/27 to 2028/29, notes the scale of the financial challenges facing the Council over this period and the range of areas being progressed and included within the planned programme of engagement with communities. Following the period of engagement, considers the feedback from communities and brings forward proposals to set a balanced budget for 2026/27.
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4. Implications/Socio-economic Duty Financial 4.1 The anticipated gross funding gap over the period 2026/27 to 2028/29, based on current assumptions, is £61.6m, including the HSCP and £39.3m excluding the HSCP. This projected gap excludes any assumptions regarding planned use of reserves and Council tax increases. Council will require to set a balanced budget for 2026/27 as part of the Council’s Medium-Term Financial Plan. Human Resources 4.2 It is anticipated that delivery of savings will impact on the Council’s future workforce. The Council has established corporate and service workforce plans which include active management of the size of its permanent workforce; vacancy management, review of temporary contracts, re-deployment and voluntary early release. Regular communication with the workforce and trade unions will continue. Legal 4.3 It is a statutory requirement for the Council to set a balanced budget and appropriate level of Council Tax to support this. Development of a balanced budget is contingent on identification and subsequent delivery of significant transformation and savings alongside management of risk and pressures, particularly those of a demand led nature. Chief Officers will require to provide assurance that plans are in place to secure delivery of proposed savings and deliver services within the final financial envelope. Equality/Socio-economic 4.4 Equality Impact Assessments will be carried out for all options presented to Council to assist Council’s in making decisions on the bridging of the funding gap. Climate Change and Carbon 4.5 This is a key priority for the Council. Significant levels of investment are already in place through the Capital programme and Council Investment funds. Moving forward this will continue to be a key area where available investment will be prioritised in order to progress the Council towards achieving net zero. Key Priorities 4.6 In addressing the financial challenge which the Council faces it will seek to minimise the impact this has on delivering its key priorities within the context of the Council Plan 2023-28. Community Wealth Building 4.7 All capital and revenue investment will be considered within the context of the Council’s Community Wealth Building Strategy.
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Islands Communities Impact Assessment (ICIA) 4.8 All impacts will be considered as part of any budget proposals, including any requirements around ICIA’s. This process will be supported by community engagement feedback. United Nations Rights of the Child (UNCRC) 4.9 This is incorporated into the overall Equalities impact assessments framework and process and again will be supported by community engagement feedback. Consumer Duty 4.10 No identified impacts considered at this stage. This will be subject to future consideration as proposals are developed. 5. Consultation 5.1 The report includes details of the Council’s planned programme of engagement. This programme will include citizens, community and stakeholder groups. Details are included in appendix 1 and appendix 2 of the report. The feedback from this programme of engagement will be considered as part of the development of the Council’s Medium- Term Financial Plan for 2026/27 to 2028/29. Regular engagement with Council Directors, staff, trade unions and elected members are an embedded part of the process in developing budget plans. Mark Boyd Head of Service (Finance) For further information please contact Mark Boyd, Head of Service (Finance), on 01294 324560. Background Papers 0
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Appendix 1 Outline Draft Budget Options 2026/27 to 2027/28 Community Engagement Framework Overview Progress on the development of Budget options is presented across 3 main areas: 1. When setting the 2025/26 Budget on 26 February 2025, several of the savings’ proposals approved at that time included a financial impact on a future year. Details are provided in Section 1. This section is for information. 2. In progressing areas of savings for 2026/27, a range of proposals have been developed which can be categorised as operational efficiencies and changes within the Council. These include workforce planning reviews and service re-design across Council directorates, resource level reviews and additional income recognition and generation. It is important to note that each of these areas of saving or additional income are expected to have no or minimal impact on the delivery of Council policy or services and should have no negative impact on our communities. Details are provided in Section 2. This section is for information. 3. A number of savings proposals have been developed for 2026/27 where, it is recognised, there could be an impact on the level of service delivery and therefore could have an impact on our communities. Full details are provided in Section 3. Feedback from our communities is sought on these proposals to help inform the Council when setting its budget in February 2026.
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Section 1 – Savings already Included in the 2025/26 Budget – For Information Directorate Budget Proposal Community Impact R/A/G 2026/27 Saving £ 2027/28 Saving £ Total Saving £ Education Services Full Year Saving from the 25/26 Review of Education Headquarter Posts Green £56,000 - £56,000 Communities and Housing Increased Planning Application Fee Income to the Council based on current levels of planning application activity Green £20,000 - £20,000 Place Year 2 of Tracking, monitoring and targeted improvements in respect of the Council’s energy consumption. The Programme includes the development of an energy monitoring framework, the launch of a behavioural campaign and targeted investment and intervention to achieve greater energy consumption efficiency. Amber £256,000 - £256,000 Corporate Continued Channel Shift to Digital Solutions – Including Accounts payable review and other digital solutions. This includes the pilot programmes and phased use of artificial intelligence in accordance with the Council’s AI policy. Amber £100,000 - £100,000 Place Workforce Planning – Internal Review of Roads Staffing management structures – Year 2 Amber £120,000 - £120,000 Place Alternative working patterns within the Streetscene grounds maintenance service for greater resource, productivity and asset management and utilisation. Amber £100,000 - £100,000 Communities and Housing Review of KA Leisure Services – Year 2 of the Review includes continuing to grow the membership base and operational efficiencies plus ongoing monitoring of the business position. Amber £299,000 - £299,000 Education Service Full year impact based on academic year of the 25-26 saving to Re-align the level of teaching resource to pupil roll and Grant Aided Expenditure reduction Green £734,000 - £734,000 Education Service Full year impact based on academic year of the 25-26 saving in respect of school crossing patrollers Amber £46,000 - £46,000 Education Service Full year impact based on academic year of the 25-26 saving in respect of FM cleaning reduction in schools and early years facilities Amber £48,000 - £48,000
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Education Service Full year impact based on academic year of the 25-26 saving in respect of the re-design of the music service Amber £24,000 - £24,000 Place Year 2 of the Review of the Economic Development, Growth and Regeneration Service. The scope of the review covers 4 key areas of the Service: Business Support and Development, Economic Policy, Growth & Investment and Regeneration including Active Travel and Transport. The total annual revenue budget for running the services is £3.932m, which is further supported by external funding from a range of sources. Amber £320,000 - £320,000 Corporate 5% Increase in all Council fees and charges – Excluding school meal charges which remain frozen and excluding all fees and charges whose rates are set nationally. Amber £221,000 - £221,000 Total £2,344,000 - £2,344,000
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Section 2 – Proposed operational efficiencies and changes in the Council that will have no or limited impact on Council services – For Information Directorate Budget Proposal Community Impact R/A/G 2026/27 Saving £ 2027/28 Saving £ Total Saving £ Corporate Services Workforce Planning Service Reviews across Customer services and ICT services Green £137,000 £75,000 £212,000 Corporate Services Workforce Planning Service Review across procurement team resources Green £35,000 - £35,000 Corporate Services Review of all operational budgets across the Revenues team Green £50,000 - £50,000 Corporate Services Increased level of Procurement Rebates Income secured from procurement activity, including Scotland Excel, Purchase card use etc. Green £40,000 - £40,000 Corporate Services Increased savings generated from the administration of Employee Benefit Corporate Schemes including purchased annual leave, shared cost Added Voluntary Contribution scheme and the recent employee Car Leasing scheme Green £100,000 - £100,000 Corporate Services Review of all recurring corporate resources, including those to support inflationary pressures, aligned to current CPI inflation forecasts and corporate workforce planning resources. Green £300,000 - £300,000 Corporate Services Review of Budget provision to support Joint Boards, including Strathclyde Passenger Transport and the Ayrshire Valuation Joint Board, to align resources to current levels of financial commitment Green £8,000 - £8,000 Corporate Services Savings across all non-staffing budget lines within Democratic services through review of all service budgets Green £15,000 - £15,000 Education Services Increase in Income from Cleaning Services- Including cost recovery model from public conveniences and Housing Revenue Account sites. Green £35,000 £65,000 £100,000 Education Services Reduction in budgeted provision for non-recovery of debt aligned to catering service activity, influenced by the universal free school meal expansion programme. Green £60,000 £65,000 £125,000
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Education Services Productivity Improvements in Cleaning Services Green 0 £79,000 £79,000 Education Services Review of Service Structures within the Facilities Management Service, including review of vacant posts, shifts to term-time working models where appropriate and a review of catering equipment budgets following earlier periods of significant investment. Green £578,000 £191,000 £769,000 Communities and Housing Further Planning Application Fee increase based on current and projected fee application income levels Green £80,000 - £80,000 Place Removal of Workscope and Governance budget following minor internal changes to the operating model of Building services Green £79,000 - £79,000 Place Reduction in Directorate Support resources as part of a shared resource delivery model Green £18,000 - £18,000 Place Reduction in waste tonnages at Household Waste Recycling Centres following the introduction of a digital booking system. Green £150,000 - £150,000 Place Reduction in Property Running Costs and Security costs through Demolition of Surplus Assets Green £17,000 - £17,000 Place Recognition of further anticipated income from Pack UK to offset the cost of waste collection, disposal and recycling as part of the Extended Producer Liability Obligation on businesses that came into effect in 2025. Risk based approach towards income recognition which will continue to be monitored as it is anticipated that future revenue will reduce as businesses change their packaging practices. Green £2,500,000 - £2,500,000 Total £4,202,000 £475,000 £4,677,000
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Section 3 – Proposed savings where there could be an impact on the level of service delivery and therefore could have an impact on our communities. Feedback from our communities is sought on these proposals to help inform the Council when setting its budget in February 2026. Directorate Budget Proposal Community Impact R/A/G 2026/27 Saving £ 2027/28 Saving £ Total Saving £ Corporate Services Progress with further Regional Collaborative opportunities: For activities that could benefit from a Shared Service Delivery Model. Initially the areas being explored across the Ayrshire Councils includes Economic Development and Growth, The Education senior phase of learning and the incorporation of North Ayrshire into the current Ayrshire Roads Alliance. Further exploration work will also be undertaken and developed on wider regional reform opportunities. Green TBC TBC TBC Education Services Realign the level of teaching resource across North Ayrshire schools: North Ayrshire’s pupil : teacher ratio in 2024 was 12.4 pupils to each teacher. This is close to our lowest level on record, and is significantly below the figure ten years ago of 13.7. Our ratio is also significantly lower than the current national average pupil : teacher ratio of 13.3. The number of pupils across North Ayrshire over the last few years has been falling and is projected to fall further (both in absolute terms and relative to the position across many other parts of Scotland). This has impacted on North Ayrshire Council’s share of national funding through the annual revenue grant from Scottish Government. Green £590,000 £959,000 £1,549,000
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This proposal is to reduce the budget for teachers by 1% in 26/27 and 1% in 27/28. This is based on a projected 1% reduction in pupil roll in each academic session and the anticipated consequential reductions in Grant Aided Expenditure allocation from Scottish Government for financial years 2026/27 and 27/28. The saving will be achieved through the realignment of teaching resource across the primary sector to reflect the pupil population distribution and through an amendment to the secondary sector staffing allocation formula. A 1% budget reduction equates to a reduction of 14 teaching posts in each year. The reduction in posts would be achieved through normal workforce planning arrangements, including not filling vacancies. Education Services Maintain alignment of Pupil Support Assistant hours to reduced pupil rolls across mainstream schools: This proposal is to reduce the budget for Pupil Support Assistants (PSA’s) by 1% in 26/27 and 1% in 27/28. This is based on a projected 1% reduction in pupil roll in each academic session. A 1% budget reduction equates to approximately 135 hours per week PSA support in each year. The reduction in time would be achieved through normal workforce planning arrangements, including not filling vacancies. Primary and secondary schools receive an allocation of Pupil Support Assistants, with the distribution of available budget based on school roll and level of social deprivation. Pupil Support Assistants provide a range of support to children and young people to enable them to participate in education and learning. This includes supporting their emotional and behavioural needs, literacy and numeracy development and health/disability needs. Green £48,000 £77,000 £125,000
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The use of PSA’s acts as a preventative measure and can remove pressure not only from internal specialist provision, but also from external day education placements, both of which are significantly more expensive alternative models of service provision. Communities and Housing Reduction in small community grants budget and further promotion of mainstreaming of participatory budgeting: The reduction in funding would also involve streamlining the Participatory Budgeting small community grants processes into one community process creating a more exciting and engaging process for communities. At the same time, it would support renewed focus on mainstreaming Participatory Budgeting as part of community participation in overall Council service design and delivery. Overall, this would be a reduction in small grants funding available for community groups. However, there would still be a substantial amount available for distribution each year through Participatory Budgeting voting (around £90,000 per annum plus any additional funding which was identified year to year) as well as support to access other small grants programmes. Amber £80,000 - £80,000 Communities and Housing Increase to charges at Arran Outdoor Education Centre – following a benchmarking comparison with other provider facilities: Arran Outdoor Education Centre (AOEC) delivers high-quality outdoor learning experiences to approximately 1,200 North Ayrshire pupils each year. Occupancy for 2025/26 is already at 90% during term time, showing strong and consistent demand. However, the net cost of operating the facility is £298,000 per annum. As part of a benchmarking exercise to review similar outdoor education facilities at a variety of locations in Scotland, it has been established Amber £15,000 - £15,000
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that the value proposition of the AOEC offer is competitive. While North Ayrshire Council has a commitment to tackling child poverty, with several school catchment areas incorporating areas with high indices of deprivation, there is scope to consider proportionate increases to current tariffs and still remain within an affordable range. The proposal would keep the pricing structure of the centre in line with competitors while still allowing for subsided access for local schools at competitive rates. The proposal reflects a £4.00 per person, per night increase. Communities and Housing Increase Temporary Accommodation Rents: This is a proposal to increase Temporary Accommodation rents by 3.84% next year. The Housing Revenue Account budget and rent setting was approved by North Ayrshire Council in February 2025. This agreed a council house rent increase of 3.84% for 2025/2026, with indicative rents of 3.84% for 2026/2027 and 2027/2028, alongside equivalent increases for temporary accommodation. This increase would be applied to around 250 temporary accommodation properties. Amber £41,000 £43,000 £84,000 Place Review the waste collection frequency for purple (glass, cans and plastics) and blue bins (paper and card) on the mainland and Cumbrae from a 3-weekly collection cycle to 4-weekly to better reflect demand and based on current presentation levels and tonnage levels. Purple Bin Presentation rates range from the highest level of 69.3% bins presented for collection every 3 weeks to the lowest level of 50.9% of bins presented for collection every 3 weeks. The yield/weight (kg per bin) ranges from 10.22 kg per bin average (lowest) to 11.15 kg per bin average (highest). Amber £100,000 £100,000 £200,000
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This indicates that there is sufficient capacity in the bins to move from 3 weekly to 4 weekly. Blue Bin Highest presentation rate is 77.3% bins presented for collection every 3 weeks. The lowest presentation rate is 55.5% of bins presented for collection every 3 weeks. The yield/weight (kg per bin) ranges from 5.59 kg per bin average (lowest) to 7.19 kg per bin average (highest). Again, this indicates there is sufficient capacity in the bins to move from 3 weekly to 4 weekly. In Summary • There is nothing to indicate that the frequency of collection couldn’t change from 3 weekly to 4 weekly. It looks from the presentation rates that many people are not presenting their bins for recycling every collection cycle. • It is also worth bearing in mind that the Deposit Return Scheme is planned to commence October 2027 and this will have a significant impact on the purple bin. • To encourage recycling, anyone with capacity issues could be offered an additional bin or a larger bin on a case-by-case basis. • The main impact of this change is on the Waste scheduling team. Less frequent collections will result in higher yields/weight per bin which requires detailed scheduling in respect of tip times, bin lorry capacity. Total £874,000 £1,179,000 £2,053,000 Grand Total of Savings £7,420,000 £1,654,000 £9,074,000
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